FX, Futures and ETF - Classical Chart Patterns Report - Aug 11

1.
Patterns in Play
(USD-CAD, USD-CHF, EUR-USD, AUD-USD, COFFEE, SOYBEANS, BRAZIL &
JAPAN ETF, GBP-USD, Nzd-Usd)
2. Developing Patterns
(Gold GOLD MINERS)
3. Developing Patterns
(GBP-JPY, GBP-CAD)
Commodities & Forex
Classical Chart
Patterns Report
ProTradingFutures.com
Week of August 11, 2014
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Copyright 2014 ProTradingFutures.com
Patterns in Play
The daily chart , on its
si de, pr ovi ded t wo
smal l er pat t er ns ( a
descending Wedge and
a reversal Cup and
Handle) that allowed us
to identify a good risk/
reward setup to prot
from this bounce and
possibly hold a position
up to the measured
target of the bigger
pattern.
UNITED STATES DOLLAR/CANADIAN DOLLAR (USD-CAD)

In its monthly chart, the USD-CAD pair shows a completed Bottom
formation, followed by quick thrust and then a correction to retest the
Neckline.

PORTFOLIO POSITIONING
My position in this market remain unchanged from the last week. Im
planning to sell 1/3 of my position at 1.100 and keep the rest for the
other 2 targets above: 1.129x and 1.16xx. Im risking a close below
1.070.
Patterns in Play
USD-CHF

Wedges are patterns that shall generate shift moves.
When I commit to play
a Wedge I want to see
a decisive follow up
from from market.
USD-CHF failed to do
so.
So, even if there are
t wo pat t er ns ( t he
weekly Wedge and the
daily Cup and Handle)
that are still in play in this cross rate, Im out of it as of Friday.

I am at in this market
Patterns In Play
EURO FX (EUR-USD, 6E, M6E)

Long term charts of the Euro shows a multi year price congestion, that
makes difcult, if not impossible, to engage in a long term campaign
keeping a small risk/reward prole.
Im short this market via futures contract with a stop just above the
Neckline of the H&S (at 1.356).
The Head and Shoulder target is at 1.300.
Sh o r t t e r m, a
small Head and
S h o u l d e r
formation (visible
both on on the
d a i l y a n d t h e
weekl y char t s)
was completed on
July 22.
The target of this
pattern is 1.300.
Patterns In Play
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR - UNITED STATES DOLLAR (AUD-USD, 6A,
M6A)

Long term, the Australian dollar has an un-reach target from a multi
month Symmetrical Triangle (visible on the monthly plot below) at
around 0.800.
I havent seen any good tradable short setup in this pair over the past
months but the past week.

AU$ completed a small Head
and Shoulder that projects a
move just below 0.9200. This
small pattern eventually can be
the start of a move to 0.8000.


Im short via September futures
with a stop on close only at
0.9383.
Patterns In Play
COFFEE (KC, JO)

Wow! Coffee is a market that can be very volatile and that reminds me
while I prefer to stick with Coffee ETF rather than trade futures
contracts. The close above Junes high made 42/JO the next target
higher.
Even if the price action of the past week was all but supportive, this
setups remains valid until a close below $34 would negate the failed
Heand and Shoulder interpretation.

I have closed all my longs before either the target and the stop got hit. I
simply didnt like to see such big weakness in a market in which Im
long.
Patterns in Play
SOYBEANS (ZS, XS)

The market is struggling at the neckline of a multi-month H&S pattern.
The gap (visible on the weekly) at $1130 shall remain open for this
pattern to remain valid.
I was hoping for a gap down on Monday but the market failed to follow
my willing (!) and so I ended up closing my short position at break-even
on Thursday.
In reality what I didnt like about XS/ZS was the divergence between
RSI and price (see the chart below).
Im short at these levels. with a buy SOC at $1120
Patterns in Play

Short term the ETF is making higher lows and higher highs.
More upside is expected, both sort term and medium term.
BRAZIL INDEX MSCI ISHARES (EWZ)

A 46-month descending Wedge is in play. The measured objective of
this pattern is at $78.
Patterns in Play
DFJ JAPAN SMALL CAP DIVIDEND WISDOM TREE

Last week DFJ felt apart as most of the index equity ETF. The low of
last week shall not be penetrated on closing basis for the bullish setup
to remain in place.
Patterns In Play
Long term, the1.675
level remains the line in
t he sand bet ween
bullish territory and the
congestion range.
BRITISH POUND (GPB-USD, 6B, M6B)

Until we remain above 2011 highs (around 1.675) the long term
prospect for the Cable remains bullish.
Short term this cross rate has been in a free fall and is unlikely to
present any decent setup for a swing trade on the upside.

Im at.
Patterns in Play

This is not a good sign.
In particular, a close
bel ow 0. 840 woul d
negate the Symmetrical
Triangle interpretation
and suggest t hat a
retest August 2013 low
(around 0.7720) could
occur before new highs
are seen in this market.
NEO ZEALAND DOLLAR/UNITED STATES DOLLAR (NZD/USD)

The long term Symmetrical Triangle in NZ$ remains in play, BUT prices
failed to close above 2011 highs.
Im at after that I got kicked out from my longs at 0.8580.
Developing Patterns
BRITISH POUND/CANADIAN DOLLAR (GBP-CAD)

This market presents a juicy opportunity, in my point of view.
As you can see from the longer term chart, GPB-CAD is forming a
possible tight Flag after an explosive move from a multi-year base.
Looking at the daily charts we can expect a quick development on the
upside. Anyhow until we have a clear breakout, Im not going to take
any commitment here.
Developing Patterns
GOLD MINERS (GDX)

The long term chart of Gold Minders is forming a reversal setup at a
key critical level. The measured objective price of the reversal Head
and Shoulder (visible in the weekly chart) is 40% above current levels.
Shorter term this market has generated a lot of false signal. A good way
to remove the noise is to look the daily line chart only (shown below).

Im willing to commit on the long side at a close above $28 risking a
swing low to $25.5. In my opinion the upside potential here is much
more than the H&S target.
Failed Patterns
Last week action negated this interpretation.
BRITISH POUND-JAPANESE YEN (GBP-JPY)

The weekly plot leaves no doubts: the medium and long term trends
are up. For the last several months the price has been in a congestion.
Long 12,500 GPB/JPY. Entry price: 174.6. Stop @ 172.0. I will add to
my position above 174. Im not going to short on weakness.
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