CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING AND ITS IMPACT ON BANGLADESH
Climate change is the variation in global or regional climates over time.
It reflects changes in the variability or average state of the atmosphere over time scales ranging from decades to millions of years. Weather is the day-to-day state of the atmosphere in a region, and its short-term (minutes to weeks) variation whereas Climate is defined as statistical weather information that describes the variation of weather at a given place for a specified interval. They are both used interchangeably sometimes but differ in their measure of time, and trends that affect them. Weather is the combination of temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloudiness, visibility, and wind. In popular usage, climate represents the synthesis of weather; more formally it is the weather of a locality averaged over some period (usually 30 years) plus statistics of weather extremes.
CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE Green house gases like carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased). The global increase of carbon dioxide is due to the use of land and fossil fuel, Increase of methane and nitrous oxide are due to agriculture Rising concentration of the green house gases in the atmosphere are causing global climate change
Climate Change Impacts Cyclone/storm surge: increased frequency, intensity, increasing salinity Floods: increased frequency, magnitudes Droughts: Spreading over time and space Erratic rainfall: Intensive rain in short time Temperature: extremes increasing Riverbank and coastal erosion: increasing Water logging and permanent inundation due to Sea Level Rise (SLR) Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet ;Antarctic Ice Sheet Glaciers and ice caps ; Expansion of heated (warm) sea water
Definition: Climate Describes the average conditions expected at a specific place at a given time. A region's climate is generated by the climate system, which has five components: atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, land surface, and biosphere. Weather Describes the atmospheric conditions at a specific place at a specific point in time. Weather generally refers to day-to-day temperature and precipitation activity Components : Climate may include precipitation, temperature, humidity, sunshine, wind velocity, phenomena such as fog, frost, and hail storms over a long period of time. Weather includes sunshine, rain,cloud cover, winds, hail, snow, sleet, freezing rain, flooding,blizzards, ice storms, thunderstorms, steady rains from a cold front or warm front, excessive heat, heat waves and more Forecast: By aggregates of weather statistics over periods of 30 years By collecting meteorological data, like air temperature, pressure, humidity, solar radiation, wind speeds and direction etc. Determining factors: Aggregating weather statistics over periods of 30 years ("climate normals"). Real-time measurements of atmospheric pressure, temperature, wind speed and direction, humidity, precipitation, cloud cover, and other variables Time period: Measured over a long period Measured for short term Md. Aminul Hoque Training Specialist NAEM, Dhaka, Bangladesh Climate Change Threats to Crop Agriculture Climate change will bring major change in reference growing periods, necessitating restructuring of crops and cropping pattern. Crop modeler/world Bank predict 7.4% loss of annual rice production. Temperature increase will drastically affect wheat area and productivity- decrease of 400 kg /ha for 1 o c increase in tem.
Health, Nutritional & Agricultural Challenges Arsenic contamination poses major threat to health; Increased malnutrition among the poor contribute to the spread of communicable and non-communicable diseases; Increased incidence of different degenerative diseases due to salinity intrusion;
Direct effects of temperature rise Extreme high temperatures increase the number of people who die/day People with heart problems are more vulnerable because one's cardiovascular system must work harder to keep the body cool during hot weather There will be problems of heat exhaustion Respiratory problems will increase Due to hazards like floods will result in an increase in enteric infections like cholera Ozone damages lung tissues and causes problems for people with asthma and other lung diseases.
Mitigation and Adaptation Adaptation involves developing ways to protect people and places by reducing their vulnerability to climate impacts Mitigation involves attempts to slow the process of global climate change by lowering the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere Examples include such mechanisms as planting trees that absorb carbon dioxide from the air and store it in the soil or in their trunks and roots Expansion of the areas of potential transmission of malaria and dengue fever (medium-to-high confidence); roughly 300 million more people at risk of malaria
Ecosystem Impacts Coral death from exposure to 3-4 C higher seasonal maximum sea-surface temperatures for 6 months or more Substantial reduction in glacier and ice-cap volume; tropical glaciers particularly vulnerable to elimination Loss of unique vegetation systems and their endemic species (e.g. vegetation of Cape region of South Africa and some cloud forests) Extensive reduction in Arctic summer sea-ice extent with benefits for shipping but adverse effects on sea- ice dependent animals (e.g. polar bears, seals, walrus) Coastal wetland loss from sea level rise (up to 10% globally for 20 cm rise, higher percentages in some areas) Increased disturbances of ecosystems by fire and insect pests Increase net primary productivity of many mid- and high-latitude forests Extinction of some critically- endangered and endangered
Climate Change and its Impacts on Bangladesh These changes can be caused by processes internal to the Earth, external forces (e.g. variations in sunlight intensity) or, more recently, human activities Bangladesh is a low-lying deltaic country in South Asia formed by the GBM rivers and their respective tributaries. Climate change poses a new threat to life and livelihood of the people of Bangladesh.
Long-term changes in temperature and precipitation may impact agriculture yields. Changes in the onset, duration, and magnitude of the yearly monsoon season and consequent characteristics of floods, droughts, and cyclones are critical to the performance of the sector. Sea level rise may have severe implications on livelihood and productivity of coastal area through inundation and salinity. The country is extremely vulnerable to climate change because of its geophysical settings. Flooding is an annual recurring event during monsoon and 80% of annual rainfall occurs during monsoon. If rainfall increases due to climate change in the GBM basin that will create huge water flow through the rivers of Bangladesh. Monsoon flood will be more devastating due to increase of precipitation and sea level rise.
Why Bangladesh is vulnerable? Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries because of its geographic location; flat and low-lying topography; high population density; reliance of many livelihoods on climate sensitive sectors, particularly agriculture and fisheries; A meter rise of sea level would inundate - a quarter of our landmass; - displacing over 20 million people by 2050; creating enormous humanitarian and political crisis beyond its national boundaries; melting glaciers would further contribute to erratic weather pattern with prolonged monsoon floods and droughts leaving 40 million people without livelihood; With rising sea surface temperature, the intensity and the frequency of the storm would increase. Intrusion of saline water would further damage our agriculture sector. Such env. impacts would have far-reaching effects on our dev. gains on economic growth, food security, health, water, ecosystems, and very existence as stable communities. C.C. conditions costing our national economy 1% of the GDP annually for over the last decade. Climate migrants from other parts of the country are already crowding our capitals for livelihood, placing extra burden on the existing infrastructure of the cities and causing social turmoil.
Climate Change: Bangladesh Response The cornerstones of all actions, international or domestic, are to ensure security of food, water, energy and, livelihood (including health). To manage the impacts, Bangladesh has taken a two-pronged approach. -It has been vigorously participating in the international negotiations process for realisation of the goals under the Bali Action Plan -as well as preparing itself at home for necessary domestic action.
Bangladesh Position on Climate Change: An effective response to climate change challenges must strike a balance between mitigation and adaptation. Bangladesh urges all major emitters to collectively establish and implement a global target to stabilize the atmosphere over the short, medium and long term.
Climate Change and Strategic Adaptation Provisions for Coastal Bangladesh Global Temperature Change : 1860 - 2000
Observed rate of sea level rise and estimated contributions for different source
Causes of SEA LEVEL Rise
World wide per capita carbon dioxide emission
Over All Bangladesh
SLR in Bd. by year 2030, 2050, 2100
1.6 4 6 20 0.2 0 5 10 15 20 25 Y e a r l y
p e r
c a p i t a
C O 2
e m i s s i o n
i n
T o n Bangladesh Developing countries World average Industrial world USA 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Year 2030 Year 2050 Year 2100 Year S L R
( c m ) TAR/ NAPA SMRC SLR trend in Bangladesh
Key Implications of CC in the Coastal Areas All fundamental human rights will be severely affected SLR will directly affect vast coastal area and flood plains of Bangladesh. In case of static altitude of the coastal areas with stagnant delta development process 10 cm SLR 2020 inundate 2% of the country 25 cm SLR 2050 inundate 4 % of the country 1m SLR 2100 about 17 % of the country Twenty million people, engaged in salt/ shrimp production, fishery/ agriculture, and other businesses will be directly affected. As a result of 1 metre rise in sea level, 29,846 sq. km. coastal area will be inundated; 14.8 million people will be landless, and tens of thousands of people will be environmental refugees. Rice production will be drastically reduced Impacts on the Sundarbans 10 cm SLR will inundate 15% of the Sundarbans 25 cm SLR will inundate 40% of the Sundarbans 45 cm SLR will inundate 75% of the Sundarbans 60 cm SLR will inundate 100% of the Sundarbans 1 - M SLR will destroy Whole Sundarbans Species like Sundari, main economic species in the Sundarbans, would be replaced by less valuable Goran and Gewa. Human habitation possible prevents inland migration. Loss of the Sundarbans and other coastal wetlands would reduce breeding ground for many estuarine fish, which could reduce their population.
Policy and Strategic Priorities -- Adaptation Capacity Development Knowledge (education- understanding the issue, data/MIS, R&D, negotiation) Institutional development Policy and governance Policies and Plans Revision of NAPA Develop country strategies UNCLOS: De-limitation of Bangladesh boundary in the BoB Landuse policy Integrated land water management (integrated NRM and watershed Management) Land Management Land zoning Facilitate delta development processes Land reclamation Risk Reduction Cyclone/surge proof housing, shelters for livestock, infrastructures Coastal green belt Food Security, Agriculture and NRM Scientific monitoring 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Hiron Point Char Changa Coxs Bazar Station m m /
y r Biotechnology Appropriate technological innovation networking and dissemination
Agriculture/Fisheries/Forestry Climate resilient agricultural (including fisheries and livestock) development Aforestration/reforestation Hydroponics Regional and International co-operation Negotiation Knowledge networking Trans boundary partnership programme Programme Demonstration projects/programmes in agriculture, fisheries, livestock, forestry Integrated land/water/NRM programme
Research New Technology Mangrove afforestation Salinity tolerant species Floating agriculture
Salinity Tolerant Species P. monodon is very sensitive to salinity required salinity for max. growth is 15-25ppt Indian White Shrimp (P. indicus) can tolerate salinity up to 42 ppt Western White Shrimp (P. vannamei) can tolerate a wide range of salinity starting from 0.5 ppt to 45 ppt. Mangrove afforestation 3 species (Heritiera fomes, Sonnerata apetala and Avicennia officinalis) suitable for mangrove aforestation in the coastal zone of Bangladesh. 1200 Sq.Km. Mangrove afforestation succeed Important habitat for shrimp fry Effective for coastal protection
Cage and Pen Culture Open water could be used for capture fisheries Easy to observe, treatment and feed supply Easy to harvest Easy to relocate However- Relatively expensive Bacterial disease of the fishes of the cage may be easily transmitted to the other parts of the water body
Polyculture Fish-Shrimp or Shrimp-Crab cultivation is suitable for Bangladesh Higher production Low pollution High fluctuation of salinity tolerant Polyculture of Tiger Shrimp (P. monodon), Milkfish (Chanos chanos), and Mullet (Mugil cephalus) showed higher harvest than shrimp monoculture Mud crab (Scylla serrata) and Tiger Shrimp are good combination of polyculture Pearl Culture Potential sector Natural pearl found in- Chittagong Coxs Bazar Moheshkhali St. Martins island Pearl producing shells found in Khulna region too Neglected sector by government Capacity building Disaster preparedness activities Special weather forecasting Local language Participatory community fund A participatory approach to coastal resource planning, inventory and zoning Insurance Agriculture Crop Fisheries Boat Land Accretion and Reclamation Potential About 2 billion tons of sediments per annum from the upper catchments areas Scope to accelerate and consolidation of accretion process Land reclamation potential Land Zoning An indicative land zoning was done by ICZM and following 8 zones were identified: Forest zone Shrimp (brackish-water) zone, Shrimp (Fresh-water) zone, Saltshrimp zone, Mangrove zone, Urban and commercial zone (industrial, port, export-processing zones and ship breaking yards), Tourism zone, and Agricultural zone
Institutional agenda Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) Should conduct research to develop salinity-tolerant rice species Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council (BARC) Research for other agricultural crops. The Bangladesh Forest Research Institute (BFRI) Identify salinity tolerant species of mangrove. The Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) Should be involved to disseminate new species and their cultivation techniques.
Role of Government Mainstream climate resilient development in policies, plans and financial allocations Take initiatives for the adaptation of different sectors Salinity tolerate species for agriculture and fisheries Settlement policies for coastal areas: climate resilient settlement (building materials, design and construction and) Adequate cyclone shelter centre in the whole coastal areas To develop community fund to meet climate change crisis Consider active delta development process in infrastructure development Rehabilitate degraded forests