1

Picturing probabilities
The idea for this problem set comes from Representing Probabil-
ities with Pipe Diagrams By Cliord Konold (May 1996). The
Mathematics Teacher, vol. 89:5, 378-382. NCTM. Alexandria,
Virginia.
1. A farmer is irrigating her elds and releases 1000 cubic This problem does not involve
probability, but it provides us with
a useful visual metaphor and
technique that will help us answer
probability questions.
meters of water into an irrigation channel. Upon entering
the eld, the water ow divides with 70% owing into a
channel to the left and 30% going into a smaller channel
to the right. Extend the diagram below to show how much
water will be in each channel if the two smaller channels
split once more, again with 70% owing to the left and
30% to the right. Label each channel with the amount of
water owing through them and draw their width to match
their capacity (note that the channels already drawn have
a width proportional to their amounts).
2. A class is playing an elimination game. Each student picks
a number from 1 to 6 and the teacher rolls a die. The stu-
dents who picked the number that is rolled have to sit
down. Everyone left standing picks a number again and
plays another round. This situation can be represented
with a channel diagram as well. In this case, however, the
channels do not show the route that water has taken.
Instead, they show the probability that a student has fol-
Problems with a Point: December 23, 2002 c EDC 2002
Picturing probabilities: Problem 2
lowed a particular path. The following diagram shows
an initial channel with the student standing. The width
is one, because the probability of a student beginning the
game is 100%. After the teacher rolls the die, the channel
splits to show the probability that the student will have to
sit down,
1
6
, or remain standing,
5
6
.
(a) Extend the diagram to show the probabilities after a Note that any vertical line
through your channel diagram
should intersect channels whose
total width is 1 (all possible paths
up to that point have been
counted).
second roll of the die and then after a third roll. Label
each channel with the probability of reaching that sit-
uation (that is, with the fraction of water that would
reach that channel) and make the width of that chan-
nel proportional to the probability. Be sure to show all
students at each stage regardless of whether they are
sitting or standing.
(b) What is the probability that a student will be sitting
by the end of two rolls?
(c) Extending channel diagrams out several levels can be
dicult. However, imagining what the extended dia-
gram would look like and what calculations you would
have to make without actually drawing the diagram
beyond a certain point can be helpful. Picture a di-
agram showing the probabilities for the possible out-
comes showing the rst six rolls. What is the prob-
ability that a student is still standing after six rolls?
What is the probability that they are sitting by the
Problems with a Point: December 23, 2002 c EDC 2002
Picturing probabilities: Problem 3
end of the sixth roll?
3. Make a channel diagram for the possible outcomes of three
consecutive ips of an unbiased coin (heads and tails are
equally likely). Each ip of the coin is an event and should
correspond to a branching of the channels. What are the
probabilities of getting heads all three times? Two times?
Just once? No times?
4. Recent research has demonstrated that teenagers are par-
ticularly susceptible to nicotine addiction (see Tobacco Ad-
diction Found to Be Nearly Immediate at www.umassmed
.edu/pap/news/2002/08 29 02.cfm). Studies have docu-
mented changes in brain chemistry after a teenager smokes
only a single cigarette and have shown that heavy smoking
is a response to, and not a cause of, addiction. Assume
that the probability of a teenager becoming addicted to
smoking is 8% each time he or she smokes a cigarette.
(a) Make a channel diagram that shows the likilihood of
addiction for the rst four times a teenager smokes.
(b) How many times would a teen need to smoke before Once they become a smoker, the
average teen takes 18 years to
successfully quit.
there was an 80% chance that he or she had become
addicted to nicotine? (Hint: The answer is not 10.
Can you use your diagram to explain why not?)
Problems with a Point: December 23, 2002 c EDC 2002
Picturing probabilities: Solutions 1
Solutions
1. The channels will receive 700(0.7) = 490 cubic meters, 700(0.3) =
210 cubic meters, 300(0.7) = 210 cubic meters, and 300(0.3) =
90 cubic meters respectively. Since the original channel is
10 boxes high for 1000 cubic meters, each box represents
100 cubic meters and the smaller channels are drawn with
widths reecting that scale.
2.
(a) The top channel will split and the student will get to
Problems with a Point: December 23, 2002 c EDC 2002
Picturing probabilities: Solutions 2
remain standing
5
6
of the time. So,
5
6
of the water in the
channel that is
5
6
wide, or
25
36
of the water, will ow into
the channel.
25
36
is the probability that the student will
still be standing after two rolls of the die.
1
6
times
5
6
,
or
5
36
, of the time the student will have to sit after the
second roll. The lower channel does not branch further,
because the student who is already sitting does not get
to play.
(b) We can nd the probability that a student will be sitting
after two rolls in two ways. We can add the widths (prob-
abilities) of the channels representing a sitting student,
or we can subtract the probability that a student is still
standing from 1:
1
6
+
5
36
= 1
25
36
=
11
36
.
(c) Each roll of the die shrinks the width of the channel that
represents the probability that a student is still standing
by
5
6
. So, the probability of surviving 6 rolls is
5
6
times
itself 6 times, or
5
6
6
, which is approximately 33.5% of the
time. The probability that a student is sitting by the end
of the sixth roll is the complement of this result or 66.5%.
3. Since the questions only ask about the cumulative results of
the three ips, there are two dierent diagrams that serve
the purpose. The rst shows each branching and the eight
distinct and equally likely sequences of heads and tails that
can arise. Each time a channel branches, we multiply by the
probability of getting the next result (0.5). Therefore, the
probability of getting any particular sequence is the same,
(
1
2
)(
1
2
)(
1
2
) =
1
8
.
Problems with a Point: December 23, 2002 c EDC 2002
Picturing probabilities: Solutions 3
The second version keeps track of the number of heads or
tails that have appeared up through the most recent ip. It
keeps the number of branches to a minimum by merging the
ow of channels that represent the same circumstance.
4. This problem is similar to problem 2. Both problems only
involve two outcomes, standing and sitting or not addicted
and addicted, and one of the outcomes is permanent. The
permanent outcomes, sitting or being addicted, are unaf-
Problems with a Point: December 23, 2002 c EDC 2002
Picturing probabilities: Solutions 4
fected by further events and accumulate greater probabili-
ties over time.
(a) Again, there are two possible channel diagrams. One
has a structure like the solution presented for problem
2a. The other takes advantage of the limited number
of outcomes and is more like the second diagram in the
solution to problem 3. Below is an example of the second
type. The precise proportions have not been maintained
because of the numbers involved (which have also been
rounded to two places). After each cigarette, 92% of the
unaddicted channel remains unaddicted. The remaining
8% of that channel becomes addicted and accumulates
in the addicted channel. The values for the unaddicted
channel are the powers of 0.92. The bottom channel is
one minus these values.
(b) We see from our diagram that the probability of being
addicted after smoking n cigarettes is 1 0.92
n
. Solving
0.8 = 1 0.92
n
yields 0.2 = 0.92
n
. We can solve for n by
making a table of powers of 0.92 and seeing when we get
below 0.2 or by using logarithms: n =
log 0.2
log 0.92
19.3. So
there will be an 80% chance of addiction after the twen-
tieth cigarette. It was not correct to just divide 8% into
80% to get 10 cigarettes, because subsequent cigarettes
led to addiction in 8% of the already diminished non-
addicted channel. In a population of beginning smokers,
some will already have become addicted and so you are
nding 8% of a smaller group.
Problems with a Point: December 23, 2002 c EDC 2002