Disclosure: I am long SPY, VTI, QQQ, XLF, IJR, FEZ, VT. (More...

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Outlook For Earnings Sparking Concern
Earnings season always causes some hesitation in the bull's camp. As more and more
releases hit the wire, the question is will the concerns be justified? From USA Today:
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Bonds Can Help Stock Investors Monitor
Correction Risk
Jan. 14, 2014 9:02 AM ET | by: Chris Ciovacco 5 comments | Includes: AGG, FEZ, IJR, QQQ, SPY, VT,
VTI, XLE, XLF
Bonds Can Help Stock Investors Monitor Correction Risk - Seeking Alpha http://seekingalpha.com/article/1944101-bonds-can-help-stock-investors...
1 of 7 1/15/2014 7:17 PM
Exercise apparel retailer Lululemon Athletica and fashion chain Express were
the latest retailers to cut fourth-quarter earnings outlooks Monday after slow
January sales. Lululemon was on track with its sales and earnings guidance
through December, chief financial officer John Currie said. But the retailer
has seen sales trends so far this month "decelerate meaningfully," Currie said.
Economic Fear Tends To Be Deflationary
Stock market corrections tend to be induced by concerns about the economy and corporate earnings. If the
economy were to hit a soft patch, bonds become more attractive as a safe haven alternative to stocks. If you
follow the stock market closely, you remember the ugly waterfall decline that took place in August 2011. The
ratio of bonds (AGG) relative to stocks (SPY) rises when investor demand for defensive bonds is increasing
relative to stocks. The ratio was rising well before the real problems hit the stock market in August 2011.
Bonds Were A Tell In 2007
As we all know, 2008 was an ugly year for the global economy and stock market. The bond-to-stock ratio was
rising in 2007 telling stock investors to pay closer attention.
Bonds Can Help Stock Investors Monitor Correction Risk - Seeking Alpha http://seekingalpha.com/article/1944101-bonds-can-help-stock-investors...
2 of 7 1/15/2014 7:17 PM
Bonds Can Help In 2014
The demand for bonds has picked up in early 2014. The odds of a more meaningful pullback in stocks will
increase if the bond-to-stock ratio can clear the blue trendline and hold the breakout into Friday's close.
Equities Still Experiencing A Taper Drag
The stock market will be much more apt to take tapering in stride if earnings can continue to improve.
However, tapering and disappointing earnings reports could spell trouble for stocks. From Bloomberg:
Stocks extended declines Monday after Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis
Lockhart said the U.S. economy is on "solid footing" and he would support continued cuts to
stimulus. "It sounds as if the Fed is staying on its course of tapering," John Carey, a fund
manager at Boston-based Pioneer Investment Management Inc., said in a telephone interview.
His firm manages about $220 billion worldwide. "Whatever mixed signals could have come
from the jobs numbers, they're looking at the overall picture."
Investment Implications - Incremental Risk Reduction
Our market model makes allocation changes based on observable evidence and hard data; the concepts are
described in this "preparing for the next inevitable correction" video. Monday's 1.26% drop in the S&P 500
was accompanied by some concerning deterioration in the market's risk-reward profile. Consequently, we
took an incremental step to reduce equity exposure by selling our stake in energy stocks (XLE). The model
always steps out of the weakest position in the portfolio first. Incremental risk reduction admits "we could be
wrong here", meaning if buyers step in at the trendline below, we still have exposure to stocks, just not as
much as we had last Friday.
Bonds Can Help Stock Investors Monitor Correction Risk - Seeking Alpha http://seekingalpha.com/article/1944101-bonds-can-help-stock-investors...
3 of 7 1/15/2014 7:17 PM
As outlined in detail in this week's video, the bigger picture from a risk-reward perspective remained positive
prior to Monday's sharp selloff in equities. Risk reduction does not mean bearish; it means less bullish.
Consequently, we continue to maintain positions in U.S. stocks (VTI), financials (XLF), technology (QQQ),
small caps (IJR), Europe (FEZ), and global stocks (VT).
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Will 2014 Bring Calmer Economic Waters For Markets? Mon, Jan 13
Is It Time To Sell Stocks And Buy Bonds? Fri, Jan 10
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What Is Relative Demand Telling Us About Stocks And The Economy? Wed, Jan 8
Comments (5)
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Mr. Bear Comments (288)

Good to know, thanks.
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Bonds Can Help Stock Investors Monitor Correction Risk - Seeking Alpha http://seekingalpha.com/article/1944101-bonds-can-help-stock-investors...
4 of 7 1/15/2014 7:17 PM
14 Jan, 09:11 AMReplyLike0
alan ljl Comments (137)

The equity market price increase of approx. 25 to 30% in 2013 while the earnings aggregate increase of
5 to 6% signals that the market rise was due to "multiple expansions" fueled by the 85 billion a month
Fed injection.
I like the author's well rounded ETF selections (maybe add a couple) and feel for the equity side of
your portfolio it doesn't get much better than that.
My only thought is the market run is now in overbought territory and a correction will bring even more
investors in, in due time.
14 Jan, 10:10 AMReplyLike0
AE_Savant Comments (9)

I appreciate your study of the market Chris and am a devoted reader of your articles.
Thanks for making technical data more understandable to the small investor.
14 Jan, 10:21 AMReplyLike1
Danny64 Comments (10)

So, Ciovacco Capital Management invests solely in selected ETFs? No individual stocks or mutual
funds? I take it bond ETFs (and commodity related) when better technical pictures present themselves?
I invest heavily in ETFs also with a smaller basket of stocks and some mutual funds. I often wonder if I
hold too many securities and should scale back on the quantity and concentrate on mainly ETFs? My
core holdings include VTI, IJR, VEA, and VEU. Have some sector ETFs. Invest no more than 5% in
any one stock (a rule of mine). Have, I feel, a bit too many mutual funds - all of which I only have
smaller investment amounts in.
I learn a lot reading Chris Ciovacco articles! Thank you for taking the time for this!
14 Jan, 11:37 AMReplyLike0
Jeffry Chmielewski Comments (485)

Stocks were super-cheap on a historical basis last December/January based on the spread between
earnings yield and the ten-year. Now they're not.
As a result those who did the bond to stock reallocation trade (the great rotation) at the end of last year
are now over exposed to stocks that aren't nearly as cheap as they were. Expect some weakness as the
un-rotation starts.
Bonds Can Help Stock Investors Monitor Correction Risk - Seeking Alpha http://seekingalpha.com/article/1944101-bonds-can-help-stock-investors...
5 of 7 1/15/2014 7:17 PM
14 Jan, 02:43 PMReplyLike1
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