Futureclimatechange

ClimateChange
Globalclimatechange
Oneofthekeyfactorsaffectingfutureclimatechangeistheamountofgreenhouse
gasesemitted intotheatmosphere. Thisdependson thingslikepopulation growth,
economic development, technologyand changesin peoplesbehaviour.
Geography Climatetakesa whiletorespond togreenhousegases; soanygreenhousegases
www.metoffice.gov.uk/education putintotheatmospherenow willstillaffecttheclimatebythetimeyou areyour
parents age.
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Recentclimatechange
Globalclimatechange
Theworldsclimateischanging. Evidenceforthishascomefrommanysources,
including:
increasesin airand ocean temperatures
long-termchangesin precipitation (rain, snow, sleetand hail) overlargeregions
widespread meltingofsnow and ice
shrinkingofArctic sea-ice
risingglobalaveragesea level
Averagesurfaceairtemperatureoftheworld hasrisen byover0.7C in thelast
hundred years.
14.6
14.4
14.2
14.0
13.8
13.6
13.4
Based on Brohan et al. (2006)
13.2
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Thisgraph showsglobalaveragetemperaturemeasurednearthesurfaceoftheEarth foreach yearfrom 1850 to 2008.
Greybarsshow yearswith temperaturesbelow theaveragefortheperiod1961 to 1990.
Redbarsshow yearswhen temperatureswereabovethisaverage.Bluelineshowstemperaturetrend.
Widespread changesin extremetemperatureshavealsobeen observed. Forexample,
cold days, cold nightsand frostshavebecomelessfrequent, whilehotdays, hot
nightsand heatwaveshavebecomemorefrequent.
Mountain glaciersand snow
coverhavereduced in both
thenorthern and southern
hemispheres, and Arctic sea-
icehasshrunk overthelast
30 years.
Sea levelrosethroughoutthe
20th Centurybyabout
17cm.
Thenumberofheavy
precipitation eventshas
increased overmostland
areas.
Arctic sea-iceshrinkagein 2007 wasthegreatest sincerecordsbegan.
WhiteshowsArctic sea-icein September2007.Green showstheamount
bywhich theiceshrankcomparedto thelong-term average. Regionalclimate
change
Temperaturechangeshavevaried a lotbetween regionsaround theworld.
Overthelast100 years, theArctic haswarmed almosttwiceasfastastherestofthe
world.
Thenorthern hemispherehaswarmed morethan thesouthern hemisphere. Similarly,
morewarminghashappened overland than sea.
Overmostland areasdaysand nightshavegotwarmerand heatwaveshavebecome
morefrequent.
Precipitation hasincreased in eastern partsofNorth and South America, northern
Europeand north and centralAsia.
Overthelast30 years, highertemperaturesand decreased precipitation haveled to
dryingin theSahel(thesouthern edgeoftheSahara desert), theMediterranean,
South Africa and partsofsouthern Asia.
Therehavebeen moreintenseand longerdroughtsoverwiderareassincethe1970s,
particularlyin thetropicsand sub-tropics.
90N
45N
0
45S
90S
180 90W 0 90E 180
4 2 0 2 4
Temperature change (
o
C)
Thismapshowshow temperatureshavechangedin different regionsoftheworldbetween 1978 and2008.
Although someareashavecooled,most areashavewarmed.Whiteareashavetoo few dataforcomparison.
ProducedbytheMet Office Crown copyright 2009 09/0192a
Met OfficeandMet Officelogo areregisteredtrademarks
Climatechangeimpacts
Herearesomeexamplesofhow climate
changecan affectpeopleand places Reduction in thewatersupplies
storedin glaciersandsnow cover
around theglobe.
meansthat manyHimalayan
riverscouldrun drytowardsthe
endofthiscentury.
Freshwater
By2020, between
75 and 250 million
peopleareprojected
toexperiencewater
shortagesdueto
climatechange.
Reducedprecipitation and
increasedevaporation could
Wateravailabilitymay
increaseby1040% at
makewateravailability
high latitudesand in problemsworsein partsof
By2050,climatechangecould
somewettropicalareas. Australia.
decreasethewaterresources
Wateravailabilityisprojected ofmanysmallislandsto the
todecreaseby1030% over point whereit might not meet
demand.
somedryregionsatmid-latitudes
and in thedrytropics.
Glaciermeltin theHimalayasmayincrease
floodingbythe2030s. However, thiswillbe
followed bydecreasingriverflowsand reduced water
availabilityastheglaciersshrink overtime.
Overthe21stCentury, watersuppliesstored in glaciersand snow covercould decline.
Thiswould reducewateravailabilityin regionssupplied bymeltwaterfrommajor
mountain ranges. Currently, morethan one-sixth oftheworldspopulation dependson
thiswater.
By2050, climatechangecould decreasethewaterresourcesofmanysmallislands, like
thosein theCaribbean and Pacific, tothepointwheretheremaybeinsufficientwaterto
meetdemand.
Melting ofArctic icewillleave
polarbearswith lessofthe
floating icetheyneedfor
hunting seals.
Moderateshort-term warming
andincreasedCO2 in the
atmospherecouldincreasecrop
growth in higherlatitudes.
Agriculture and ecosystems
Forglobalaverage
temperature
increasesofbetween
13 C, cropgrowth
islikelytoincreaseat
higherlatitudes,
includingmanyparts
ofSiberia, North
America and northern
Europe. However, with
even highertemperatures,
thisislikelytodecrease.
Thereisahigh riskof
Atlowerlatitudes, especiallythe significant biodiversityloss
seasonallydrytropics, cropgrowth is through speciesextinction in
manyareasoftropicalSouth
likelytodecreaseeven with small
America.
temperatureincreases. In somepartsofAfrica
cropsthatneed rain togrow could decreasegrowth
by50% by2020.
Roughly2030% ofplantand animalspeciesin theworld arelikelytobeathigh risk of
extinction iftheglobalaveragetemperaturerisesby1.52.5 C beyond 1990 levels.
Overthenextcenturymanyecosystemsarelikelytobedamaged bya combination of
climatechange, associated disturbances(e.g. flooding, drought, wildfire, insects), and
otherglobalchanges(e.g. land usechange, population, over-exploitation ofresources).
Forexample, meltingofArctic icewillleavepolarbearswith lessofthefloatingicethey
need forhuntingseals.
Themain greenhousegasresponsibleforclimatechangeiscarbon dioxide(CO2)
produced byburningfossilfuelssuch ascoaland oil, and bychoppingdown and
burningforests.
Regionalclimatechange
90N
Sea-levelriseandstorm surges
areparticularlyhazardousto 45N
smallislandcommunities.
0
45S
90S
180 90W 0 90E 180
Coasts
Highersea levels
would increasethe
risk ofcoastal 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5
flooding, unlesssea Temperature change (C)
Thismapshowspredictedtemperaturechangein different regionsoftheworldbytheendofthe21st Century. defencesareimproved.
Coastalregions,especially
(Thisassumesafutureworldwith high greenhousegasemissions.)
Increasingriverflow heavilypopulateddeltas,such
asBangladesh,willbeat
frommorerainfallor
greatest riskfrom flooding.
Warmingisexpected tobegreatestoverland and atmosthigh northern latitudes.
glaciermeltwaterislikely
Itisverylikelythatheatwavesand heavyprecipitation eventswillbecomemore toincreasetherisk of
frequentacrosstheglobe. Snow coverand sea-icecontinuetodecreasein the floodingin somecoastal
delta regions. Arctic. Warmersea temperaturesand meltingland iceisexpected tocontinueto
contributetotherisein sea levels.
Bytheend ofthe21stCentury,
In theUK, averageannualtemperatureincreasesofbetween 25 C havebeen millionsmorepeopleareexpected to
beflooded in coastalregionseach year predicted bytheend ofthiscenturyand morewarmingisexpected in theSouth
asa resultofsea-levelriseand increasing Coralbleaching isasign of Eastthan in theNorth West.
coralresponding to stresswhich
population. Mostofthesepeoplewillbein
can becausedbyincreased
denselypopulated and low-lyingareas, such as watertemperatures. Greenland ice sheet
Bangladesh, whereotherhazardssuch astropicalstorms, coastalerosion and river IftheGreenland icesheetmeltscompletely, globalsea levelwillrisebyabout7m.
floodingarealreadya problem. Smalllow-lyingislands, such astheMaldivesin the Warmertemperatureshaverecentlycaused ittomeltfasterthan expected, and
Indian Ocean, arealsoveryvulnerable. moremeltingispredicted forthefuture. However, becauseitssobig, itisnt
Coralsarevulnerabletochangesin temperature. Increasesin seawatertemperatures expected tomeltcompletelyforabout3,000 years.
of13 C could resultin morecoraldyingand thecompletedestruction ofsomeareas
ofcoral.
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With globalwarming,people
in citiesarelikelyto beat
greaterriskofheat stress.
Ice thickness (m)
Predictedchangein Greenlandicesheet thickness.
Redandyellow indicatesice.
Blueandgreen showsthebarerocksurfaceleft behindastheicemelts.
Increasedprecipitation intensity
in someregionsislikelyto
Droughtsand wildfires
worsen waterpollution and
impact on human health. Droughtsoccurbecauseofa combination
oftoolittlerain and toomuch
evaporation. Since1980, thearea ofland
Health
experiencingdroughthasincreased
Peoplewhodonot worldwide. Astheclimatewarms,
havethefacilitiesto evaporation isexpected toincrease, and
adaptaremost areasin droughtareexpected toexpand.
vulnerabletoclimate
Thiscould lead tomorefailed harvests
changeimpacts.
and famine, particularlywherepeople
Climatechangeislikely relyon rain togrowtheirown food. More
toaffectthehealth of droughtsand warmertemperaturesare
millionsofpeople likelytoincreasewildfires. Thesecan
through: causeconsiderabledamagetopeople,
Agriculturalproduction and
malnutrition and property, plantsand animals.
accessto foodin manyAfrican
consequentdisorders, with countriescouldbeseverely
affectedbyclimatechange. implicationsforchild growth Forests
and development Mostplantsgrow fasterin warmer
diseaseand injuryduetoheatwaves, temperatures, with higheratmospheric
floods, storms, wildfiresand droughts CO2 and enough water. Therefore, as
colder, higherlatitudesbecome
increased illnessduetodiarrhoea
warmer, forested areassuch asnorthern
changesin thelocation ofsomeinfectiousdiseasecarriers, likemosquitoesthatcarry Russia and Canada areexpected to
malaria
grow morein thefuture. However,
Accesstofood in manyAfrican regionscould beseverelyaffected byfuturechangesin forestsin areaswhererainfalldecreases
climate. Thisisexpected tohappen asa resultofdecreasesin theareassuitablefor arelikelytodecline. Somepredictions
agricultureand fisheries. show thattheAmazon forestregion
Citiesarewarmerthan thesurroundingcountrysidebecauseofthe'urban heatisland' could becomemuch warmerand drier,
effect. Thisisbecauseofthewarmth fromheavytraffic, fromheatinghomes, schools and thismaycauselargerareasoftrees
and offices, and fromheatstored in buildingsand concrete. With globalwarming, todie.
peoplein citiesarelikelytobeatgreaterrisk ofheatstress, especiallyduringheatwaves,
such astheonein Europein August2003 when about30,000 morepeopledied than
normalforthetimeofyear.
Thisposterisbased on thefindingsoftheIntergovernmentalPanelon ClimateChange. www.ipcc.ch