WP II Demand Forecast Report FINAL Revision

LAHMEYER
INTERNATIONAL
LI / GE7 26 0690 October 2012
MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES
AND ELECTRICITY
REPUBLIC OF SUDAN
General Directorate of Policy, Planning and Projects
Long and Medium Term
Power System Plans
Demand Forecast
Report FINAL Revision
WP II - Demand and Supply Balancing &
WP III Evaluation of Existing Facilities
MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES AND ELECTRICITY
Long and Medium Term Power System Plans Sudan
Demand Forecast Report (WP II & WP III) FINAL Revision
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Lahmeyer International GmbH, 2012
The information contained in this document is solely for the use of the Client identified on
the cover sheet for the purpose for which it has been prepared.
Lahmeyer International GmbH undertakes no duty to or accepts any responsibility to any
third party who may rely upon this document.
All rights reserved. No section or element of this document may be removed from this
document, reproduced, electronically stored or transmitted in any form without written
permission of Lahmeyer International GmbH.
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Client: Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity
General Directorate of Policy, Planning and Projects
Nile Street
P.O. Box 878
Khartoum
Republic of Sudan
Consultant: Lahmeyer International GmbH
Friedberger Strae 173
D-61118 Bad Vilbel
Germany
Status: Final - Revision
Date: Bad Vilbel 18/10/2012
Revision History:
Rev. Date Author Checked by Approved by Description
v0 30.06.2012 Karsten Schmitt,
Kai-Uwe Horn,
Enrique Salazar,
Berhon Dibrani,
Jens Moedinger
Kai-Uwe Horn,
Karsten Schmitt,
Manfred Kugler
Dr. Alexis Bonneschky Draft chapter 1 - 5
v1 02.08.2012 As previous version Kai-Uwe Horn,
Karsten Schmitt
Dr. Alexis Bonneschky Draft
v2 17.08.2012 As previous version Kai-Uwe Horn,
Karsten Schmitt
Dr. Alexis Bonneschky Final
V3 18.10.2012 As previous version Karsten Schmitt,
Manfred Kugler
Dr. Alexis Bonneschky Final - Revision
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Table of Contents
1 Executive summary............................................................................... 1
1.1 Conclusion ....................................................................................................... 1
1.2 Acknowledgement............................................................................................ 2
1.3 Compendium.................................................................................................... 2
1.3.1 Frame conditions for demand analysis and forecast......................................... 2
1.3.2 Forecast results................................................................................................ 9
2 Introduction ......................................................................................... 13
2.1 Objectives ...................................................................................................... 13
2.2 Structure of report .......................................................................................... 14
2.3 Methodology and assumptions....................................................................... 14
2.3.1 Approach........................................................................................................ 15
2.3.2 Data analysis and data validated.................................................................... 17
2.3.3 Definitions ...................................................................................................... 18
3 Frame conditions for demand analysis and forecast....................... 20
3.1 Geographic frame .......................................................................................... 20
3.2 Political and administrative frame................................................................... 21
3.3 Demographic frame........................................................................................ 21
3.4 Economic frame ............................................................................................. 25
4 Power system in Sudan historic, actual and outlook.................... 27
4.1 Institutional and political frame of the power sector ........................................ 27
4.2 Consumption.................................................................................................. 28
4.2.1 Connections and consumption by sectors and states..................................... 28
4.2.2 Seasonal and daily load characteristics.......................................................... 36
4.2.3 Load factor ..................................................................................................... 39
4.2.4 Isolated grids and rural electrification ............................................................. 40
4.2.5 Suppressed demand...................................................................................... 41
4.2.6 Ability and willingness to pay.......................................................................... 42
4.3 Transmission and distribution......................................................................... 43
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4.3.1 Existing power grid......................................................................................... 43
4.3.2 Operation criteria and network characteristics................................................ 46
4.3.3 Challenges to the network and committed / planned expansions ................... 47
4.4 Generation ..................................................................................................... 51
4.4.1 Existing power plants ..................................................................................... 53
4.4.2 Committed power plants................................................................................. 65
4.4.3 Summary generation characteristics and implications for expansion planning 68
4.5 Losses ............................................................................................................. 1
4.5.1 Technical losses transmission.......................................................................... 1
4.5.2 Technical losses distribution............................................................................. 1
4.5.3 Non-technical losses ........................................................................................ 1
5 Assumptions and scenario definition ................................................. 2
5.1 Previous analyses and forecasts...................................................................... 2
5.2 Assumptions and driving factors for demand.................................................... 2
5.3 Definition of forecast scenarios ........................................................................ 4
6 Demand forecast ................................................................................... 6
6.1 Moderate scenario ........................................................................................... 6
6.2 Base scenario ................................................................................................ 10
6.3 High scenario................................................................................................. 15
7 Demand supply balancing.................................................................. 21
8 Conclusion........................................................................................... 28
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List of Annexes
Annex 1 Data collection
Annex 2 Demographic data
Annex 3 Economic data
Annex 4 Power system data Sudan
Annex 5 Assumptions by locality
Annex 6 Results demand forecast
Annex 7 Maps
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List of Figures
Figure 1-1: Peak load moderate, base and high scenario (2006 - 2031)........ 9
Figure 2-1: Approach demand analysis and forecast ............................................ 15
Figure 3-1: Distribution of population and main towns in Sudan, .......................... 22
Figure 3-2: Share of urban, rural and nomadic population by locality in Sudan, ... 23
Figure 3-3: Lifetime migration in Sudan ................................................................ 24
Figure 3-4: GDP by kind of economic activity and annual growth at constant
market prices (2000 - 2011) .................................................................................. 26
Figure 4-1: Electrification ratio (national grid) and rate (2006 - 2011) ................... 29
Figure 4-2: Number of customers by customer group (2005 - 2011)..................... 31
Figure 4-3: Connection growth by customer group (2005 - 2011) ......................... 31
Figure 4-4: Power consumption by customer group (2000 - 2011) ....................... 32
Figure 4-5: Monthly consumption by customer group (2011) ................................ 33
Figure 4-6: Map showing consumption by state and consumer group (2011)....... 34
Figure 4-7: Specific consumption by customer group (2005 - 2011) ..................... 35
Figure 4-8: Annual peak load (gross) and annual growth rates (2002 - 2011) ...... 36
Figure 4-9: Monthly peak load (2002 - 2011) ........................................................ 37
Figure 4-10: Daily load curves for summer/ winter, weekday/weekend day,
2007/2011............................................................................................................. 38
Figure 4-11: Time of daily maximum load (2011) .................................................. 39
Figure 4-12: Frequency of daily maximum and minimum load (2009 - 2011) ....... 39
Figure 4-13: Annual generation, peak load and load factor (2002 - 2011) ............ 40
Figure 4-14: Schematic network topology Sudan 2010 (Source: SETCo)............. 45
Figure 4-15: Map of Sudan existing and committed power plants...................... 52
Figure 4-16: Available capacity by month and annual maximum available capacity54
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Figure 4-17: Development of available capacity (low) between 2006 and 2012 and
maximum available capacity for 2012 ................................................................... 55
Figure 4-18: Development of annual generated energy (net) between 2007 and
2011 and firm energy for 2012.............................................................................. 56
Figure 4-19: Seasonal generation profiles based on monthly generation by
Merowe, Roseires and combined thermal units during the period 2009 2011.... 57
Figure 4-20: Seasonal generation profiles based on monthly energy generation
produced by generation facilities during the period 2009 - 2011........................... 57
Figure 4-21: Merowe HPP - daily power production characteristics (2011)........... 62
Figure 4-22: Roseires HPP - daily power production characteristics (2011) ......... 63
Figure 4-23: Development of available capacities (low) between 2012 and 2031... 1
Figure 6-1: Energy generation and consumption moderate scenario (2006 -
2031)....................................................................................................................... 6
Figure 6-2: Peak load and annual growth moderate scenario (2006 - 2031) ....... 7
Figure 6-3: Energy consumption by customer group moderate scenario (2006 -
2031)....................................................................................................................... 7
Figure 6-4: Energy consumption - percentage share by customer group
moderate scenario (2006 - 2031) ............................................................................ 8
Figure 6-5: Electrification ratio (grid connected and off grid) and share of states
and localities connected to the national grid moderate scenario (2009-2031) ..... 8
Figure 6-6: Energy generation and consumption base scenario (2006 - 2031).. 11
Figure 6-7: Peak load base scenario (2006 - 2031) ........................................... 11
Figure 6-8: Energy consumption by customer group base scenario (2006 - 2031)12
Figure 6-9: Energy consumption percentage share by customer group base
scenario (2006 - 2031) .......................................................................................... 12
and localities connected to the national grid base scenario (2009 - 2031)......... 13
Figure 6-11: Energy generation and consumption high scenario (2006 - 2031). 16
Figure 6-12: Peak load high scenario (2006 - 2031) .......................................... 16
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Figure 6-13: Energy consumption by customer group high scenario (2006 -
2031)..................................................................................................................... 17
Figure 6-14: Energy consumption - percentage share by customer group high
scenario (2006 - 2031) .......................................................................................... 17
Figure 6-15: Electrification ratio and share of states and localities connected to the
national grid high scenario (2009 - 2031)........................................................... 18
Figure 7-1: Balancing of demand and supply of peak load (MW) for moderate,
base and high scenario (2006 to 2031)................................................................. 22
Figure 7-2: Balancing of monthly demand and supply of peak load (MW) for
moderate, base and high scenario (2006 to 2031)................................................ 24
Figure 7-3: Balancing of monthly demand and supply of peak load (MW) for
Figure 7-4: Balancing of monthly demand and supply of (firm) energy for
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List of Tables
Table 1-1: Definition of demand forecast scenarios ................................................ 7
Table 2-1: Data requested and utilized for demand forecast report ...................... 17
Table 4-1: Electrification ratio and rate, households and population (2006 - 2011)30
Table 4-2: Transmission system length by voltage level ....................................... 44
Table 4-3: Transmission projects commissioned in the past years ....................... 44
Table 4-4: Power generation capacities and contribution to peak production (2011)47
Table 4-5: Projects under construction.................................................................. 48
Table 4-6: Committed projects (in tendering process or tendering completed) ..... 48
Table 4-7: Projects in planning stage (transmission plan)..................................... 50
Table 4-8: Existing hydro and thermal power generation facilities ........................ 58
Table 4-9: Committed hydro and thermal power generation facilities.................... 65
Table 5-1: Definition of demand forecast scenarios ................................................ 4
Table 6-1: Electrification ratios on state and national level (2009 2031)
moderate scenario .................................................................................................. 9
Table 6-2: Electrification ratios on state and national level (2009 2031) base
scenario ................................................................................................................ 14
Table 6-3: Electrification ratios on state level (2009 to 2021) and national level
(2009 2031) high scenario............................................................................... 19
Table 7-1: Balancing of demand and supply of peak load (MW) and energy for
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Abbreviations and Acronyms
AC Air Condition
AG
CBS
Associated Gas
Central Bureau of Statistics
CCGT
CO
2
Combined Cycle gas Turbine
Carbon Dioxide
DIU Dam Implementation Unit
EAC
EAPP
EPC
GDP
East African Community
Eastern Africa Power Pool
Engineering, Procurement, Construction
Gross Domestic Product
GO
GoS
Gasoil
Government of Sudan
GT
GWh
HCGO
HFO
HPP
HVDC
Hz
I&C
IDP
IMF
kV
Gas Turbine
Gigawatt Hours
Heavy Coked Gasoil
Heavy Fuel Oil
Hydro Power Plant
High Voltage Direct Current
Hertz
instrument and Control System
Internally Displaced People
International Monetary Fund
kilo Volt
LI Lahmeyer International GmbH
LMTPSP Long and Medium Term Power System Plans
LPG
MED
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
Ministry of Electricity and Dams (now: MWRE)
MVA
MW
MWh
MWRE
NEC
Megavolt Ampere
Megawatt
Megawatt Hours
Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity
National Electricity Cooperation
NG
NOx,
Natural Gas
Nitrogen Oxide
OPEX Operational Expenditure
RMS
SEDCo
Root-Mean-Square Value
Sudanese Electricity Distribution Company Ltd.
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SETCo Sudanese Electricity Transmission Company Ltd.
SHGC Sudanese Hydropower Generation Company Ltd.
SLD S/S Single Line Diagram
SOx, Sulphur Oxide
ST
STPG
Steam Turbine
Sudanese Thermal Power Generation Company Ltd.
TPP
UN
UN-HABITAT
WEO
WP
Thermal Power Plant
United Nations
United Nations Human Settlements Programme,
World Economic Outlook (IMF)
Work Package
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1 Executive summary
1.1 Conclusion
As part of the Long and Medium Term Power System Plans 2012-2031, this report sum-
marizes the results of Work Package II - Demand and Supply Balancing containing the
demand analysis and forecast and of Work Package III - Evaluation of Existing Facilities
for the existing and committed power generation plants and the electrical transmission
and distribution network. Lahmeyer International (LI) provided the consultancy services for
the development of these plans in 2012 on behalf of the Ministry
1
of Electricity and Dams
(MED).
This report provides the basis for the power system expansion planning by
Identifying the driving factors for demand and consumption characteristics;
Identifying the characteristics and limits of the power sector to serve this demand;
Developing sound forecast scenarios for energy demand and peak demand; and
Identifying future supply gaps
The preparation of the demand forecast included the definition of three scenarios:
1) Moderate Scenario: applying key assumptions based on the historic development.
The results by grid-connected electrification has to be supplemented by off grid
electrification in rural areas to meet the electrification targets for 2031 of not less
than 80% on national and not less than 50% on state level.
2) Base Scenario: applying the average of the moderate and high scenarios and their
assumptions considering that the electrification target of 80% in 2031 will be large-
ly met by grid-connected electrification supplemented by off grid electrification in
rural areas
3) High Scenario: applying the electrification targets of 80% to be reached through
grid-connected electrification only. Off grid electrification in rural areas will further
increase the overall electrification ratio and have to supplement the grid connected
electrification ratio on state level to meet not less than 70% on state level.
Each of the demand scenario forecasts several hundred megawatts of additional peak
load and gigawatt hours of additional demand for energy to be served during the next
years. In order to achieve the forecasted results for peak demand, energy need and elec-
trification, all scenarios require considerable expansion and reinforcement measures for
the transmission and distribution network. In particular, the base and high scenario require
extensive technical and financial resources, a challenge for the expansion of the power
system.
Various projects are committed and are under construction to keep up with this growing
demand. However, various delays and uncertainties the future fuel supply of the thermal
1
In 2012 MED changed into the Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity (MWRE). For the sake
of consistency the old name and abbreviation (MED) will be kept where the text refers to the past.
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plants put their future availability at risk. If they are delayed there will be a considerable
supply gap for the demand increase of the moderate scenario in the near future, let alone
if the higher growth rates of the base and high scenario are going to materialise. Even a
timely commissioning of the committed plants will mean a supply gap for the moderate
scenario until 2015 and will require additional capacity from 2017 onwards. If the base and
high demand forecast materialises additional efforts to increase the supply capacity will
have to be started immediately. How this expansion of generation capacity should ideally
happen considering the characteristics of the demand and the existing power system as
well as the potential energy and technology sources will be dealt with in the successive
reports on the expansion candidates.
1.2 Acknowledgement
Lahmeyer Internationals engineering team would like to express his sincerest thanks to
the entire management and engineering team of the Ministry, in particular the project
management, taking part in this study, as well as all participating specialists from the indi-
vidual electricity companies for fully supporting him in gathering all material compiled in
this report.
1.3 Compendium
1.3.1 Frame conditions for demand analysis and forecast
The size of Sudan with some 1.9 million square kilometres poses a challenge for the con-
nection and supply of the periphery with the centre for instance with regard to transport
and power supply and the secession of South Sudan in July 2011 causes uncertainty and
risk for the planning within this study.
The population of Sudan is estimated at 35 million people for 2012. The main demograph-
ic characteristics of Sudan with a strong impact on power demand are a high population
growth, high share of rural, nomadic and displaced population, a low population density
and unequal distribution of its population among its states.
The correlation between electricity consumption (total and by sector) and economic
growth in Sudan is very high. The crude oil production has a high influence to the econo-
my. Since the political and economic situation of the Sudanese economy on national level,
by sector and on state level is very uncertain, the demand forecast is solely based on his-
toric developments.
Power system in Sudan structure and policy
The power sector in Sudan went through considerable developments in recent years:
Demand for energy has increased through the demographic as well as economic
development of Sudan and is expected to further increase;
Generation capacity has tripled during the past seven years and several new pro-
jects are under construction or in the planning stage considering the enormous
domestic energy potential;
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The power sector has undergone a major reform.
As part of the current energy policy, it is the aim of the Government of Sudan (GoS) to:
Increase the overall national electrification ratio to at least 80% by 2031;
Connect all states of Sudan to the national grid by 2031 - as far as practicable;
Utilize a high share of domestic energy sources - as far as practicable;
Utilize a high share of renewable energy sources considering economic and tech-
nical limitations;
Diversify the energy sources - as far as practicable - in order to increase security
of supply and reduce dependency;
Utilize all hydro potential in the country - as far as practicable.
Power system in Sudan consumption
Presently electricity only accounts for 2% of the total energy use in the country. This is
mainly because the Sudanese national power grid covers only a small portion of the coun-
try. Regions not covered by the national grid rely on isolated grids or energy substitutes
such as kerosene. In mid-2011 there were nearly 1.7 million customers connected to the
national power grid of which more than 85% were domestic. The electrification rate for the
whole country is about 30%. During the past six years, the number of customers doubled
with an annual average increase of 12% indicating that the electrification advances. There
are technical and economic restrictions to extend the national grid to the rural areas.
Therefore, off grid rural electrification has to be considered
During the past decade the consumption increased by an average of 14% per year. While
the share of domestic and governmental consumption of total consumption remained sta-
ble at about 50% and 14% respectively, the industrial share decreased from 22% in 2000
to 16% in 2011. In the same period, the share of agricultural consumption doubled to
nearly 5% and the commercial consumption increased from 12% to 15%. Industrial and
agricultural show no considerable seasonality of demand. Commercial, governmental and
domestic consumption instead increases by up to 50% during the month March to Octo-
ber.
The consumption by consumer group differs from state to state. These characteristics
mirror partly the economic structure of the country: the states of the Greater Khartoum
Area show a higher share of industrial consumers and the states of the Nile valley have a
higher agricultural consumption. The average specific consumption during the past five
years was stable.
The 100 largest customers in the country account for more than 11% of the total con-
sumption and 7% of the systems peak demand. This dominance of few large consumers
means a strong influence on the present and future energy demand in these sectors.
However, more than 1.5 million small domestic, commercial and governmental consumers
determine the lions share of the total consumption.
Various forms of suppressed demand exist, mainly curtailed demand due to poor security
and quality of power supply and non-served demand due to insufficient ability to pay for
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connection and electricity and insufficient coverage of power grid. The overall suppressed
demand in Sudan is estimated at three to four times the current demand. This rough esti-
mate can serve as a reference point for the current and future electricity supply.
Due to missing reliable information within this study it is assumed that the relative electrici-
ty prices remain in the historic range; thus, allowing the use of historic consumption data.
Power system in Sudan load characteristics
During the past ten years, the annual peak load in Sudan grew steadily at around 13% per
year, similar to the growth of energy consumption. In 2011, the annual peak load was
1,517 MW (gross, at generator output), nearly double the peak load in 2006. The load
curve of the national grid varies between seasons as well as between weekday and
weekend day.
Power system in Sudan transmission and distribution
The existing electrical network in Sudan has been designed for an operating voltage level
up to 500 kV. Therefore the network can transfer generated electricity from remote hydro-
power plants like Merowe HPP, and Roseires HPP to the main load centres of the country
like Khartoum area. Several other production sites are locally supporting the load demand,
especially in Khartoum itself and sites in the eastern states, i.e. Sennar, Al Gadarif and
Red Sea. During the last decade, the electricity authorities have implemented various
generation and transmission projects.
Though considerably expanded and strengthened in the past, the Sudanese electrical
network faces various challenges in the medium and long term, for instance:
Rise of load from the existing load centres through existing and partly deficient
network: increasing the risk of faults and the need for reinforcements;
Rise of load from new distant load centres to be connected to the national grid
(e.g. the Darfur region which is currently isolated) through long distance transmis-
sion and distribution lines: increasing the risk of voltage fluctuations;
The governments ambitious plan to considerably increase the electrification of the
country both in terms of states and households connected requiring a significantly
increase of investments in electrification projects;
Levelling the seasonal fluctuation of hydro power generation and firm capacity with
thermal generation at other generation sites;
Integration of generation from intermittent renewable energy sources such as wind
and solar energy: requiring an efficient monitoring- and dispatch system.
To face these challenges, some projects are under construction or in the tendering or
planning phase.
Losses in the transmission and distribution network in 2011 amounted to 5% and 13%
respectively. For this study, transmission losses are assumed to remain at 5%, distribution
losses are expected to decrease to 12% based on on-going energy efficiency pro-
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grammes. Non-technical losses are assumed negligible due to the installation of pre-paid
meters.
Power system in Sudan generation
The generation sector in Sudan is determined by two main factors:
The high share of hydropower through low operational costs; and
The fluctuation of the underlying water source throughout the year requiring addi-
tional thermal generation.
Due to the low operating costs, hydropower has a high share of the power generation in
Sudan. Base load is provided mainly by hydro power plants, i.e. Merowe, Roseires and
three small HPP, and to a lesser extent by thermal generation based on steam units at
Khartoum North and Garri. Intermediate and peak load is predominantly provided by hy-
dro power, i.e. Merowe and to a smaller extent Roseires, depending also of irrigation de-
mands. During the dry season thermal generation contributes a small share to intermedi-
ate and peak load. This derives from the flexible but also more costly CCGT based gener-
ation at Garri and GT based generation in Khartoum North. Since this capacity is currently
underutilised, this contribution can be further expanded in future.
The power generation in Sudan strongly depends on the supply characteristics of the en-
ergy sources. For hydro energy, there is a strong seasonal fluctuation of available dis-
charge and head. The periods of low head in the reservoir coincide with the periods of
high demand for electric energy and power. Further constraints restrict the operation of
HPP. These are the needs for the irrigation as well as the passing through of the high wa-
ter wave to avoid reservoir sedimentation. These facts restrict the utilisation of HPP in
terms of storing energy and providing regulating power to the grid. In addition, there are
inter-annual fluctuations of hydro sources. Hence, part of the hydropower generation ca-
pacity has to be backed up with fossil fuel based generation. Fossil-fuelled thermal gener-
ation is necessary for this back-up as well as for providing stability to the electrical net-
work. However, the associated generation costs are comparatively high, except for the
sponge coke based generation of Garri 4 and HCGO based generation in Khartoum
North.
The committed power plants will on the one hand increase the share of fossil fuel in the
overall generation mix. On the other hand, the Upper Atbara HPP, a peaking plant, will be
capable of providing a considerable amount of regulating power to the system, though at a
far distance from the load centres. If all committed plants are realized as scheduled the
average available energy will nearly double within the next five years from around 13,000
GWh in 2012 to nearly 24,000 GWh in 2017 which is nearly three times the energy gener-
ation in 2011.
Assumptions and scenario definition
The actual demand for energy is the result of many factors comprising economic, tech-
nical, demographic and political factors. In order to prepare a plausible demand forecast it
is neither possible nor reasonable to model all interrelations between these factors. For
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this study, the frame conditions with the strongest effect on the demand were identified
and analysed. These driving factors provide the frame for defining the assumptions for
each demand scenario.
For Sudan these driving factors for demand are:
1. The economic development of the country: this is the most prominent factor since it
provides in the long-term the income on state level to finance the expansion of the
power system and on consumer level to expand and pay for the use of electricity
among existing and new customers. This issue is described in sections 3.4 and 4.2.1.
2. Policies and development plans for industrial, commercial and agricultural pro-
jects: these projects for economic development might boost the electricity demand in
particular sectors and regions, beyond the usual development. These projects are not
directly considered in this study because of the high uncertainty whether and when
these projects and policies will be realized. However, they are indirectly covered by
different assumptions on connection rates for the different scenarios.
3. The capacity of the power sector to implement the power system projects, i.e.
the kind of projects, their volume and implementation time in the past. This includes for
instance
a. The development of transmission projects so that currently not connected
areas and their population can be served, i.e. how many kilometres of over-
head lines will be implemented in what time. This issue is determined by the
capacity of the responsible institutions and the financial resources. It is de-
scribed in section 4.3. For each forecast scenario average transmission ex-
pansion capacities were assumed. They are understood as the long-term av-
erage expansion in kilometre per year of the different transmission paths (e.g.
towards Darfur or Port Sudan). They are based on the experience with projects
in the past and include not only the average construction duration but also any
delay in the overall planning process. For each locality currently not connected
to the national grid the distance to the existing transmission network was esti-
mated so that for each scenario the number of years could be estimated until
the electrification of the locality.
b. The development of distribution projects to connect new customers to the
existing transmission system and the extension of the transmission grid men-
tioned in the previous bullet point. This issue is described in sections 4.2.1 and
4.2. The expansion of the distribution network includes the contribution of cus-
tomers to the expenses. This will be considered in the investment plan.
4. The financial resources to realize power system projects, e.g. power plants, the ex-
tension of the transmission and distribution grids. This issue is influenced by the
above-mentioned economic development and has a strong impact that the extension
of the power grid will be realized.
5. The consumption patterns of the connected consumers: this indicates daily, sea-
sonal and regional consumption typical for Sudan, which can be used to estimate the
future development of the connected consumers and the probable consumption pat-
terns of any new consumers. This issue is described in section 4.2.
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The assumptions applied in this study for the three demand forecast scenarios are sum-
marized in the following table.
Table 1-1: Definition of demand forecast scenarios
Scenario
Topic
Moderate scenario Base scenario High scenario
Brief
description
Based on assumptions
established by the Consult-
ant for a probable develop-
ment based on the historic
development.
Based on the arithmetic
average of the other two
scenarios and their as-
sumptions; considering that
the electrification target of
80% will be largely met by
grid-connected electrifica-
tion supplemented by off
grid electrification in rural
areas.
Based on electrification
targets of 80% to be
reached through grid-
connected electrification
only and providing assump-
tions (e.g. expansion capac-
ities) to be fulfilled to reach
these targets, assuming on
average higher available
expansion capacities than in
the past.
Metho-
dology
The forecast was based on the projection of historic data under consideration of projects
on the locality and state level, i.e. combining trend projection and bottom-up approach
(further information in section 2.3).
Demo-
graphy
Population distribution and growth as provided by CBS (Census 2008 and forecast; data
and further information in section 3.3, Annex 2 and Annex 5)
Geography,
administra-
tive area
Structured along previous administrative structure of 15 states,
all areas currently claimed by the GoS included
(for further information see section 3.1 and 3.2)
Economy The demand forecast was solely based on historic developments and did not consider any
GDP forecast since no reliable data was available (further information in section 3.4).
Power
generation
Sufficient power generation capacity assumed
Trans-
mission
extension
100 km per year average
extension per planned
transmission line pro-
ject/path, 200 km for com-
mitted projects
mitted projects
mitted projects
Sufficient capacity of transmission lines to transmit all future power
(further information on the transmission system in section 4.3; estimated distances for
transmission line projects/path by locality Annex 5)
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Scenario
Topic
Distribution
extension
Average total new connec-
tions per year similar to
historic average 2009 -
2011 (about 220,000 new
connections of which
about 200,000 domestic -
per year for all Sudan).
Connection rates of newly
connected areas (localities)
similar to connections of
new areas in the past for
domestic connections and
connection characteristics of
the state for other customer
types.
tions per year to reach
electrification target of be-
tween moderate and high
scenario (about 270,000
new connections of which
between moderate and high
scenario.
tions per year to reach elec-
trification target of 80%
(about 320,000 new con-
nections of which about
270,000 domestic - per year
for all Sudan).
double of moderate scenar-
io.
For years where the urban share of the population in the state exceeds the electrification
ratio a higher connection rate is assumed (+10%) to simulate the higher potential for elec-
trification in these states (further information in section 4.2.1 and 4.2.4)
Electrifi-
cation
ratio
Output of demand forecast
(electrification ratio through
grid connected electrifica-
tion; supplemented by off
areas to meet at least 50%
electrification ratio on state
level, see section 2.3.3)
(Arithmetic average of other
scenarios; electrification
target of 80% will be largely
met by grid connected elec-
trification (average of mod-
erate and high scenario)
supplemented by off grid
electrification in rural areas
to meet at least 60% electri-
fication ratio on state level, ,
see section 2.3.3)
80% electrification ratio in
2031 through grid connec-
tion only as main input for
demand forecast (supple-
mented by off grid electrifi-
cation in rural areas to meet
at least 70% electrification
ratio on state level, , see
section 2.3.3)
Financing &
capacity of
power
sector
Restrictions of capacity and financial resources according to the historic transmission and
distribution extension capacity,
Electricity
consump-
tion / ability
and willing-
ness to pay
Specific consumption and its increase according to historic average on state level assum-
ing that electricity prices, i.e. willingness and ability to pay based on tariffs and income
remain in the historic range and consumption increases of connected consumers will be
levelled by (lower) consumption of new consumers
(further information in section 4.2.1 and 4.2.6)
New pro-
jects
New projects included in assumptions on new connections and specific consumption; shift
of captive power to grid power limited to 150 MW in Port Sudan and 65 MW in Atba-
ra/River Nile
(further information in section 4.2.1).
Losses Transmission losses 5%, distribution losses 12% (2016 onwards)
(further information in section 1.1)
Load factor 63% for most of the study period with a decline to 61% in 2018 to model the coincidence of
high peak demand caused by high temperature and by Ramadan
(further information in section 4.2.3)
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1.3.2 Forecast results
Below the forecasted development of the annual peak load is shown for all three scenari-
os.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
[
M
W
]
Moderate scenario
Base scenario
High scenario
Peak load (annual, sent-
out) historic
Figure 1-1: Peak load moderate, base and high scenario (2006 - 2031)
They key results for each scenario are as follows.
Moderate scenario
For the moderate scenario, demand for energy and peak load are forecasted to grow by
an average annual rate of 10.9% for the period until 2021, 4.5% for the period 2021 to
2031 and 7.7% for the whole study period. On average 250 MW of load and 1,400 GWh of
energy consumption at generation sent-out level is added every year. Energy generation
(sent-out), energy consumption (billed) and peak load will reach 36,000 GWh,
30,000 GWh and 6,500 MW in 2031, respectively. For this scenario, some 1.3 million of
new connections, 90% domestic, would be necessary until 2016.
The electrification ratio is forecasted to grow by nearly two percentage points per year. It
will reach 62% in 2031. This forecasted electrification ratio relates to the electrification of
households connected to the national grid or large isolated grids. The overall electrifica-
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tion ratio will be higher if measures for rural electrification, e.g. micro-grids or solar home
systems, are taken into account. Based on the electrification targets on state level to
reach an electrification ratio of at least 50% and 80% on national level this would sum up
to additional 18%, resulting in a total electrification ratio of 80% if the targets are reached.
Base scenario
For the base scenario, demand for energy and peak load are forecasted to grow by an
average annual rate of 12.5% for the period until 2021, 4.5% for the period 2021 to 2031
and 8.4% for the whole study period. On average 280 MW of load and 1,600 GWh of en-
ergy consumption at generation sent-out level is added every year Energy generation
new connections, 90% domestic, would be necessary until 2016. Detailed results of the
demand forecast by sector and year provided in Annex 6.
The electrification ratio is forecasted to grow by an average of two percentage points per
year. It will reach 71% in 2031. This forecasted electrification ratio relates to the electrifi-
cation of households connected to the national grid or large isolated grids. The overall
electrification ratio will be higher if measures for rural electrification, e.g. micro-grids or
solar home systems, are taken into account. Based on the electrification targets on state
level to reach an electrification ratio of at least 60% this would sum up to additional 13%,
resulting in a total electrification ratio of 84% if the targets are reached.
With regard to electrification, the base scenario is ambitious since the envisaged electrifi-
cation target exceeds the urban share of population from 2013 onwards, e.g. 71% electri-
fication ratio in 2031 compared to forecasted 55% urban population. To achieve this elec-
trification ratio the implementation of the envisaged projects for transmission and distribu-
tion has to be in the range as scheduled in the scenarios assumptions which might be
technically and economically challenging.
High scenario
For the high scenario, demand for energy and peak load are forecasted to grow by an
average annual rate of 14% for the period until 2021, 4.3% for the period 2021 to 2031
and 9% for the whole study period. On average 330 MW of load and 1,800 GWh of energy
consumption at generation sent-out level is added every year. Energy generation (sent-
out), energy consumption (billed) and peak load will reach 46,000 GWh, 39,000 GWh and
8,400 MW in 2031, respectively. For this scenario, some 2.4 million
2
of new connections,
90% domestic, would be necessary until 2016, i.e. the overall connections would have to
more than double within five years which is nearly impossible given the current capacity of
the organisations involved. Detailed results of the demand forecast by sector and year
provided in Annex 6.
2
This is in the range of the medium term plan of SEDCo if an average load of 50% for the planned
transformers is assumed.
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The high scenario is considered very ambitious even technically nearly impossible due to
the targeted high share of grid-connected electrification. It exceeds the urban share of
population from 2013 onwards, e.g. 80% electrification ratio in 2031 compared to fore-
casted 55% urban population. This means that compared to the other scenarios an in-
creasingly higher share of rural areas have to be electrified with electrical networks. This
will cause technical and financial challenges and might not be the most economical ap-
proach for the electrification.
The high scenario is considered very ambitious due to the targeted high share of grid-
connected electrification. It exceeds the urban share of population from 2013 onwards,
e.g. 80% electrification ratio in 2031 compared to forecasted 55% urban population. This
means that compared to the other scenarios an increasingly higher share of rural areas
have to be electrified with electrical networks, which might not be the most economical
approach for the electrification.
Demand supply balancing
If compared on an annual basis for the most critical month (i.e. August) the existing and
committed capacity will not be sufficient to meet the forecasted peak demand for any sce-
nario if the reserve margin requirements are considered (even if the committed power
plants are commissioned as scheduled).
However, for the moderate scenario (green continuous and dotted lines) the existing and
committed capacity nearly covers the forecasted demand and reserve margin.
The supply gap between 2012 and 2016 is in a range of 15 to 330 MW for the moderate
scenario, 154 to 580 MW for the base scenario (blue continuous and dotted lines) and 254
to 880 MW for the high scenario (yellow continuous and dotted lines).
If no reserve margin is considered, the available capacity will be able to meet the fore-
casted demand for the moderate and base scenarios until 2018 and 2016, respectively,
with a supply gap for the base scenario in 2015. For the high demand scenario, there is
not sufficient capacity to provide secure supply to the forecasted demand from 2012 on-
wards.
If compared on a monthly basis the picture slightly changes (compared to the aggregated
annual view). Of course the above conclusion for the annual view remains. However, the
supply situation for the next years is only critical for the months August and July. Due to
the much higher head, mainly at Merowe, the remaining months of the year see enough
capacity to meet the monthly peak demand.
With increasing peak demand this situation will worsen during the next years since up to
2016 when Upper Atbara HPP will be available - no considerable capacity increase will
occur. Typical hydrological conditions and monthly demand patterns assumed, the supply
situation will become critical for more than one month:
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For the high scenario already in 2013 the capacity will not be enough for the months June
to August. Already in 2015, the peak demand (without reserve margin) will considerably
overshoot the available capacity.
For the base scenario in 2015 for the period May to September the demand is forecasted
to go beyond the available capacity. Not before 2020, the peak demand (without reserve
margin) will considerably overshoot the available capacity.
For the moderate scenario in 2013 and 2014 the existing and committed capacity will be
sufficient. For June to August 2015, the demand (including reserve margin) is assumed to
exceed the capacity though only slightly. 2016 sufficient capacity is expected throughout
the year due to the Upper Atbara plant. For 2017, only August might see capacity short-
ages to meet peak demand and reserve margins. Only from 2018 onwards, periods of
several months might see critical supply situation, and not before 2020, the peak demand
(without reserve margin) will considerably overshoot the available capacity. .
Up to 2031, the supply gap is forecasted to reach for the most critical month 3,900 MW for
the moderate scenario (compared to about 2,000 MW during the less critical winter
months), 4,700 MW for the base scenario (about 3,000 MW during the winter months) and
5,700 MW for the high scenario (about 3,500 MW during the winter months). This means
that the available capacity has to more than double for the moderate scenario and triple
for the high scenario.
For the high scenario, years with low hydro conditions (equal to firm energy assumptions)
might cause energy shortages already in 2015 based on the existing and committed pow-
er plants. For all scenarios, the capacity to meet peak demand becomes critical far earlier
than firm energy. Concluding, the available energy exceeds the forecasted energy de-
mand by far for all demand scenarios.
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2 Introduction
In 2011, the Ministry of Electricity and Dams
3
(MED) has contracted Lahmeyer Interna-
tional (LI) for the consultancy services for the development of
1. A long term power system planning study to cover the period 2012-2031; and
2. A medium term plan for the period 2012 2016.
This report summarizes the results of Work Package II - Demand and Supply Balancing
containing the demand analysis and forecast for the period 2012 to 2031. It further in-
cludes the outcome of Work Package III - Evaluation of Existing Facilities for the existing
and committed power generation plants and the electrical transmission and distribution
network.
2.1 Objectives
The purpose of the demand analysis and forecast and the successive demand supply
balancing is to provide a sound basis for the power system expansion planning by
Identifying the driving factors for demand and consumption characteristics;
Identifying the characteristics and limits of the power sector to serve this demand;
Developing sound forecast scenarios for energy demand and peak demand; and
3
In 2012 MED changed into the Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity (MWRE). For the sake
of consistency the old name and abbreviation (MED) will be kept where the text refers to the past.
Note: The forecasts provided in this report are not statements of what will happen but
of what might happen, given the described assumptions and methodologies.
In particular, the forecasts assume trends that are consistent with historical and current
developments with regard to population, economy, policy as well as the power sector.
It relies on particular projects and expansions in the power sector to be realised with
regard to generation as well as transmission and distribution/electrification. It further is
based in part on general assumptions where no sufficient and reliable data was availa-
ble.
Given the very high uncertainty of the political and economic frame conditions in Su-
dan the reader should carefully study the described assumptions and critically review
the latest developments in Sudan in general and the power sector in particular before
using any of the results.
This critical review and regular update of the demand forecasts is essential for any
planning process based thereupon.
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Identifying future supply gaps so that the optimal capacity, location, and technolo-
gy for generation and transmission & distribution projects can be determined dur-
ing the expansion planning process.
In the course of this process, the demand analysis and forecast have to address the fol-
lowing challenges:
Forecasts are uncertain per definition and experience;
The reliability and completeness of data varies;
To differentiate between desired and economically and technically achievable tar-
gets for power supply;
Have to consider the trade-off between costs of under and over building.
2.2 Structure of report
The report consists of seven main sections:
1) Executive summary, providing a brief overview of the assumptions and results;
2) Introduction, providing the reports background and approach;
3) Description of the frame conditions which have an impact on the demand for
electricity, i.e. geography, policy, demography and economy;
4) Description and analysis of the power system in Sudan, comprising the whole
supply chain (generation, transmission, distribution and consumption) and detailing
special characteristics such as losses and seasonal and daily load. This sections
contains the outcome of Work Package III - Evaluation of Existing Facilities;
5) Definition of assumptions and scenarios based on the previous sections out-
come as well as lessons learnt from previous forecasts;
6) The demand forecast results for each of the defined scenarios;
7) Identification of future supply gaps by balancing the forecasted demand and
supply of the existing and committed generation facilities;
8) Summarize the main findings and related recommendations in the conclusion
section.
2.3 Methodology and assumptions
This section summarizes the approach applied for the forecast, details the data situation
and provides an overview of the general assumptions and definitions chosen.
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2.3.1 Approach
The demand analysis and forecast were conducted along the following approach:
Figure 2-1: Approach demand analysis and forecast
1) Data collection
LI defined data and information requirements and developed a data inventory;
LI contributed data available from past and on-going projects in Sudan and provid-
ed the list of remaining data requirements
4
to MED
5
. This included a questionnaire
developed to facilitate the data collection on state level and from institutions on na-
tional level;
MED collected, verified and forwarded the data to LI;
LI reviewed the data provided by MED and provided recommendations and as-
sumptions for identified data gaps;
MED approved the final data set provided by LI.
2) Assessment of current and historic energy consumption characteristics focusing on
Seasonal and daily load patterns including load system factor,
Current and expected consumption patterns by consumer groups and state,
Unmet (suppressed) demand,
Current and past electrification rate, on-going and projected electrification policies
and targets, existing isolated grids,
Macro-economic and demographic factors with an impact on the demand,
Deviations between former demand projections and actual demand.
3) Elaboration of demand growth rates and demand driving factors (developments of
major consumer groups as well as power generation / transmission / distribution
projects under construction or already committed).
4) Development of an approach based on experience from previous studies in Sudan
and from similar counties; combining:
4
The data requirements and the questionnaire are provided in
Annex 1
5
In 2012, the MED changed into the Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity (MWRE). Most of
the data collection and analysis was completed under the MED.
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Trend-projection (taking into account correction factors based on comparisons of
former planned and actual performance figures). The assumptions are based
largely on historic data analysis (e.g. for consumption & connections). Thereby the
analysis considers the potential capacity and limits of power system to expand
which is mirrored in this data. Further, information with a higher uncertainty, for in-
stance plans for power supply and economy, play a minor role.
Bottom-up forecast approach by adding loads derived from large projects on the
demand side, but also on the expansion of the distribution and transmission sys-
tem. This approach considers the interdependency of demand and supply: the
identified demand is the basis for supply projects (e.g. transmission lines & electri-
fication) but if these projects are not developed demand will not develop as pro-
jected
Different scenario definition which are not limited to sensitivities (e.g. high & low
growth) but different views, i.e. the electrification ratio (grid connected) is a result
of scenario 1 (moderate) and an assumption (input) for scenario 2 (high) to mirror
the political intention
Regional view by assessing demand and projects on a state by state and where
possible locality by locality level.
5) Definition of three scenarios for the development of demand based on the demand
analysis results:
a) Moderate Scenario: applying key assumptions established by the Consult-
ant for a probable development based on the historic development. The re-
sulting by grid-connected electrification has to be supplemented by off grid
electrification in rural areas to meet the electrification targets for 2031: not
less than 80% on national level and not less than 50% on state level.
b) Base Scenario: applying the arithmetic average of the moderate and high
scenarios and their assumptions considering that the electrification target of
80% in 2031 will be largely met by grid-connected electrification supple-
mented by off grid electrification in rural areas, also to meet the electrifica-
tion target of not less than 60% on state level.
c) High Scenario: applying the electrification targets of 80% to be reached
through grid-connected electrification only and providing assumptions (e.g.
expansion capacities) to be fulfilled to reach these targets. Off grid electrifi-
cation in rural areas will further increase the overall electrification ratio and
have to supplement the grid connected electrification ratio on state level to
meet not less than 70% on state level.
A low scenario below the moderate scenario and based on more conservative as-
sumptions on the future economic and power system related development was not
considered.
6) Development of a spread-sheet based tool containing the data used and the main
forecast instruments.
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2.3.2 Data analysis and data validated
The reliability and completeness of the underlying data is essential for the accurateness of
any forecast. Within this study, numerous data sources were used for collection and re-
view of data. Some sources provided data which LI considered complete and reliable.
This includes for instance the power system metering data of the Load Dispatch Centre,
the consumption data based on pre-paid metering, and some demographic data based on
the very recent 2008 census. Other data sets were incomplete or not available at all, in
particular with regard to economic development and future projects. The level of availabil-
ity and reliability differed from state to state partly due to the political situation. Hence, as
many assumptions as possible were derived from the more reliable data sets. However,
various assumptions for the scenario definitions base on rather unreliable data or more
general, deduced assumptions. These uncertainties are mentioned in the respective sec-
tions. The table below summarizes the requested and utilized data by category and pro-
vides a brief description on the quality (complete, up-to-date, reliable) and related uncer-
tainties.
Table 2-1: Data requested and utilized for demand forecast report
Data cate-
gory
Source Description Data quality and uncertainties
Energy
policy
MED Current and intended policy
on power supply (incl. tariffs,
& subsidies)
Information sufficient for demand forecast.
Demogra-
phy
CBS Population and household
size by locality and ur-
ban/rural areas and growth
Data complete, up-to-date and reliable with
some uncertainty normal for these kind of
data and region. Main uncertainty due to
political situation.
Geography,
administra-
tive area
CBS, UN,
LI
Area and borders for states
and localities
Data complete and reliable (though it does
not include the latest reforms on state bor-
ders) with some uncertainty due to the politi-
cal situation.
Economy CBS, IMF GDP development by sector
and state in recent years
and forecast (missing), eco-
nomic situation and potential
on national and state level
(missing), socio-economic
situation of population
Data complete, up-to-date and reliable only
on national level. Information on state level,
forecasts and on socio-economic situation
missing, hence general assumptions applied,
which are largely uncertain due to political
situation. No GDP forecast available, nor
reliable assumption possible.
Power gen-
eration
facilities
MED, LI Technical specification of
existing and committed
plants and historic genera-
tion
Data nearly complete and reliable with very
few and small variations between different
sources. Uncertainty for committed plants
due to uncertain fuel supply and financing.
Electrical
network
MED
(SETCo,
SEDCo),
LI
Technical specifications of
existing and commit-
ted/planned power lines and
substations; losses (historic
development and future
plans), grid code
Data nearly complete and largely reliable with
few variations between different sources.
Uncertainty for future projects due to uncer-
tainty of financing.
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Data cate-
gory
Source Description Data quality and uncertainties
Electricity
consump-
tion
- historic
MED
(SEDCo)
Consumption and customers
by state/locality and sector,
large customers and sup-
pressed demand for recent
years, load curves
Data complete, up-to-date and reliable for
recent years due to high penetration of pre-
paid metering and accurate load measure-
ment on substation level. Some variation
between data sets which are tolerable for this
study. Quality on data on suppressed de-
mand and large customers varies.
Electricity
consump-
tion
- future/
planned
MED
(SEDCo,
various
state &
national
organisa-
tions)
Expansion of distribution
network, potential future
consumers (planned pro-
jects and current captive
suppliers)
Expansion plan for distribution network com-
plete and up-to-date on aggregated level.
Information on future projects and captive
suppliers incomplete and partly unreliable
limiting the possibility to include in bottom-up
approach.
2.3.3 Definitions
This section provides the most important definitions used in this report. For abbreviations
and acronyms, please refer to the overview on page x.
Ability and willingness to pay is the maximum price a consumer is able or willing to pay for
electricity.
Available capacity in this study is the generation capacity actually available to the power
system at power plant sent-out. It is given for certain periods in the year (e.g. months or
weeks) and should be daily available at least for the hours of peak demand. This parame-
ter is in particular important to assess the capacity of hydro power plants. Due to limited
water sources they might have a lower firm capacity (i.e. capacity permanently available
for a longer period) but a considerable peaking capability to serve the peak demand.
Available energy is the energy generation available to the power system at power plant
sent-out on a long-term average.
Capacity and generation gross / net (sent-out): Gross capacity and generation include the
own/auxiliary consumption of the power plant, i.e. measured at generator output. Net or
sent-out generation or capacity exclude the own consumption, i.e. measured at the trans-
former output.
Consumption billed / gross: Billed consumption is the metred consumption excluding any
transmission and distribution losses (technical and non-technical). The gross consumption
includes these losses and is equal to the net generation at power plant.
Capacity factor compares the actual output of a generating unit with the theoretical output
over a time period (on gross or net level).
Electrification ratio / rate: the electrification ratio is the percentage
6
of the population sup-
plied with electricity.
Electrification rate is the annual percentage change of connections.
6
Formula: Electrification ratio = Number of Domestic Connections * Average Household Size (for
the household size see section 4.2.1) / Total Population
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This study distinguishes between the electrification ratio deriving from the national grid
and large isolated grids (grid-connected electrification) and the overall electrification ratio,
which includes also off-grid electrification, i.e. rural electrification measures. While this
study focused on the assumption for and calculation of the grid connected electrification,
indicative figures are provided for off grid electrification to meet the overall electrification
target. The contribution of off grid (rural) electrification to the overall electrification ratio
was derived as follows: the minimum electrification target for the state level for 2031 (i.e.
50% for moderate, 60% for base, and 70% for high scenario) was applied. If these targets
are not achieved by grid connected electrification the balance was assumed to derive from
rural electrification, providing the rural electrification target for each state and scenario.
Since no information on the actual off grid electrification was available, the present value
was set to 0% and a linear growth of the electrification ratio was applied to achieve the
targeted level in 2031. Possible technologies for off-grid electrification are provided in the
Expansion Candidates Report prepared within this study.
Firm capacity / energy is the mostly hydro related capacity and energy which are in the
long-term available for a certain period (i.e. year or month) with a determined probability,
e.g. 90%.
Load factor is the average load faced by a generating system:
Scenario is one possible future development assuming certain assumptions for the under-
lying frame conditions.
Specific consumption is the average consumption for all customers or a particular cus-
tomer type per year.
Suppressed / non-served / unmet demand: this summarizes demand for electricity which
could not be met for technical reasons (e.g. low reliability and quality of supply, no grid
connection possibility) or economic reasons (insufficient ability and willingness to pay for
the electricity). The demand is either served by alternative means of energy supply or not
served at all, often resulting in economic costs.
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3 Frame conditions for demand analysis and forecast
This section describes the general frame conditions in Sudan, which have an influence on
the demand and supply of energy.
3.1 Geographic frame
The Republic of Sudan
7
lies in North East Africa
8
:
In the northeast, it has access to the Red Sea providing one major entry point for
trade and transport.
In the east, it shares borders with Eritrea and Ethiopia where the major share of
Sudans Nile water flows into the country through the Blue Nile and the Atbara and
their tributaries.
In the south, it shares its longest border with South Sudan where the remaining
water inflow occurs through the White Nile. The border is partly under negotiation
due to the recent secession of South Sudan.
In the west, Sudan shares relatively short borders with the Central African Repub-
lic in the South and Libya in the North and a longer border in-between with Chad
reaching from desert land in the north to bush land further south.
In the north, Sudans second longest border passes mainly through the desert land
with Egypt. It crosses the river Nile carrying all water outflows.
With some 1.9 million square kilometres, Sudan is the third largest country in Africa and
the 16
th
largest country in the world. This size itself poses a challenge for the connection
and supply of the periphery with the centre, for instance with regard to transport and pow-
er supply. Despite Sudans size, most of its topography is relatively flat.
The Nile basin is the largest landscape, which lies mostly in the eastern half of the country
reaching from the north to the south. The river Nile and its tributaries with several thou-
sand kilometres of river courses and reservoirs have shaped this landscape and dominat-
ed the historic and present development of the country. Hence, the majority of the popula-
tion and most of the agricultural and economic activities are located in this area.
Vast desert areas of the Sahara - sparsely populated or uninhabited - extend in the north
and east of the country. Savannah and bush lands constitute the remaining areas.
7
Within this study, Sudan stands for the Republic of Sudan after the secession of South Sudan on
9 July 2011 but including all areas currently claimed by the Government of Sudan. Any data on the
generation and consumption of electric energy before 2005 include also the area of South Sudan
though its share is only related to few isolated grids and considered negligible for this study.
8
For a map showing Sudan, its neighbouring countries and main rivers please refer to Figure 3-1.
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3.2 Political and administrative frame
Sudan is sub-divided into 17 states
9
and more than 130 localities. The largest states by
size are the North, Northern Darfur, Northern Kordufan and Read Sea; by population
Khartoum, Al Gezira, South Darfur and North Kordufan.
In general, the Sudanese government and administration is centralised. However, various
administrative issues are regulated on lower levels. For instance, the expansion of the
distribution grid happens on state level.
The secession of South Sudan in July 2011 and the developments that led to the split are
responsible for various uncertainties and risks on the political level, which also have an
impact on the geographic, demographic, and economic level. For instance, the new line of
the border is under negotiation and several areas are claimed by both countries
10
. This
related conflict and various internal conflicts have a negative impact on the regional but
also national economy, cause population to leave their home and restrict the access to
certain areas. Whether these issues will be settled in the near future as well as their out-
come is very uncertain. This also causes uncertainty and risk for the planning within this
study, both for the areas affected by the conflicts and for the national level.
The energy policy with regard to power supply is described in section 4.1.
3.3 Demographic frame
Based on a recent projected census
11
conducted in 2008 the population of Sudan is esti-
mated at 35 million people for 2012. The main demographic characteristics of Sudan with
a strong impact on power demand are a high population growth, high share of rural, no-
madic and displaced population, a low population density and unequal distribution of its
population among its states and landscapes.
Population distribution
With a density of 19 people per square kilometre, Sudan is among the least densely popu-
lated countries in the world. The distribution of the population is very uneven as it is
shown with gradual colours in Figure 3-1
12
. The settlement areas follow to some extent
the natural landscape: large desert areas in the north and west are nearly uninhabited.
The Nile valley including its tributaries is home to the majority of the population and the
9
An administrative reform in 2012 resulted in the split of West Darfur into West Darfur and Central
Darfur and South Darfur into South Darfur and East Darfur as well as some changes on locality
level. Before the reform, Sudan (North) consisted of 15 states. Since the reform is not fully imple-
mented this study is based on the former structure of 15 states.
10
Within this study, all areas (and their estimated population) currently claimed by the Republic of
Sudan serve as the base area to be electrified. Hence, if in future these areas will not be under the
responsibility of Sudan this will have implications for the results, e.g. reduced efforts for electrifica-
tion or a higher electrification ratio.
11
Source for all demographic data: Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). The CBS population fore-
cast covers the period up to 2019. Beyond that period an extrapolation by linear trend method was
applied based on the available years. Detailed demographic data used for this study is provided in
Annex 2.
12
All maps are provided in A3 format in Annex 7.
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density on local authority (locality) level reaches in many areas several hundred people
per square kilometre and beyond. The Darfur states are the second most important set-
tlement area with about 25% of the national population and population densities around
20 people/km
2
(up to 200 people/km
2
around the main towns). The third most important
area connects the Nile valley and Darfur region through North and South Kordufan ac-
counting for about 15% of the national population. Further, the Red Sea state holds many
larger towns.
Figure 3-1: Distribution of population and main towns in Sudan
12
,
13
In addition to the distribution of the population all over wide distances and areas in the
country, the high share of rural, nomadic and displaced people hinders the provision of
power supply to Sudans population. About 60%
14
- if Khartoum state is excluded nearly
80% - of the total population live in rural or nomadic conditions. It is more difficult to bring
electricity to these in general more dispersed and smaller communities compared to the
40% urban population 30% of the population (12.5 million) which live in the 200 Sudanese
towns of 10,000 or more inhabitants. Most of these towns are already connected to the
national grid or isolated grids and contribute the lions share of the electrification. Hence,
the extension of the power supply to the rural areas will be the main task and challenge to
achieve the envisaged electrification targets. As detailed in the Expansion Candidates
Report 8.3.4 Technology options for isolated grids and rural electrification there are
13
Data by locality provided in Annex 5.
14
Source: UN-HABITAT (2010): The State of African Cities
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technical and economic restrictions to extend the national grid to the rural areas. There-
fore, off grid rural electrification has to be considered to supplement the extension of the
national grid. The important settlement areas of Darfur and Kordufan mentioned above
show a very high share of rural or nomadic population of up to 83%, in some of their lo-
calities even 100% as it is shown in the pie charts in Figure 3-2 below. Compared to other
North African countries the urbanisation in Sudan is low but catching up in recent years.
The average annual growth of its urban population of over 4.3% is one third above the
overall population growth. For the forecast, this urbanisation is assumed to continue with
55% urban population in 2030 as predicted by UN-HABITAT
14
. This requires an average
annual urban growth rate of 5%.
Figure 3-2: Share of urban, rural and nomadic population by locality in Sudan
12
,
13
The household size has an influence on the number of required or potential domestic
connections to the power grid. The average household in Sudan amounts to 5.7
15
people
with on average slightly more people in urban households (6.0) than in rural/nomadic
households (5.6). The household size does not vary much among the states. On locality
level there are extreme values in a range of 4 to 9 people but most localities show a size
around the average. For this study, the average rural and urban household sizes will be
applied throughout the study period assuming that there will be no considerable change.
15
Previous statistics on the electrification ratio apply an average household size of 6.5. This higher
figure is applied in this study.
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Population growth and migration
The annual population growth is 3.2% (about 1.1 million in absolute terms) which makes
Sudan one of the fastest growing countries in the world. The growth is expected to slow
down to 3.1% in 2015 and 2.9% in 2019 leading to 38 million in 2015, 44 million in 2020
and 55 million towards the end of the study period. The growth rates by states are in a
wide range between 1% in Red Sea and North Kordofan and 4 to 5% in Khartoum, Kassa-
la, Al Gedarif and Sinnar but are expected to converge. The relatively high growth rates
eat up most of the extension of power supply in recent years leading to only moderate
growth rates for the electrification (see section 4.2.1 for details). A change of the growth
rate is possible though only in the long term since it usually takes decades until current
measures or demographic changes will take effect. Therefore, the same population
growth will be applied in all demand forecast scenarios.
Various kinds of internal migration with an impact on demographic development exist in
Sudan:
Internal migration for work and education are directed towards the main regional
and national commercial centres, in particular the Greater Khartoum Area. Figure
3-3 shows the states with the migration outflow (orange and red), migration inflow
(green) and states were inflow and outflow are roughly equal (yellow). This move-
ment is assumed to be included in the states growth rates.
Figure 3-3: Lifetime migration in Sudan
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Though Sudan has a relatively large share of nomadic tribes (see Figure 3-2
above), most of them are partially settled, i.e. part of the tribe or family stay in their
settlements. Hence, for this study the nomadic share of the population will be add-
ed to the rural population.
Sudan has the highest number of internally displaced people (IDP) in the world.
They live mainly in refugee camps and provisional settlements around the large
towns in Darfur and Khartoum. With regard to the power supply for these people, it
is uncertain whether, when and where these people will move to in future, i.e. no
reliable time schedule for return or resettlement exists. This uncertainty is further
increased since their numbers and the 2008 census methodology and outcome
with regard to IDPs are contested. This study applies this census 2008 data, add-
ing the uncertainty with regard to the future supply for the huge numbers of cur-
rently displaced people.
3.4 Economic frame
The correlation between electricity consumption (total and by sector) and economic
growth in Sudan is very high as detailed in section 4.2.1 making a thorough analysis of the
economy necessary as an input for the demand forecasting.
The economy in Sudan experienced a long period of growth during the past decade with
growth rates averaging at 7%. This was driven by high growth rates in the sectors oil ex-
ploration (7%, between 2000 and 2005 double digit growth with an average of 15%), in-
dustry (9%) and governmental services (10%). But also private services and agriculture
contributed on average 6% and 5% per year respectively.
The economy in Sudan is dominated by the exploration of crude oil, agriculture and pri-
vate services. According to the official statistics
16
, agriculture has contributed a stable third
to the national gross domestic product (GDP) during the past 10 years deriving partly from
large agricultural schemes. Private services have a similar share of the economy with fi-
nance, insurance and real estate contributing most ahead of transport and communica-
tion.
Although the exploration of crude oil contributes only 5 to 10% to the total GDP, it has a
very strong influence on the overall economy. The crude oil and petroleum products are
the basis for several industries. Further, the crude oil revenues supply foreign currency to
the economy and cover a part of the national budget, thus allowing the government for the
provision of services as well as cross-subsidies. The importance of the crude oil can be
seen in the actual development in Sudan. In 2011, the oil production decreased consider-
ably due to the secession of South Sudan, a 27% decrease as part of GDP (shown in Fig-
ure 3-4 below). This caused a shortage of foreign currency and the resulting devaluation
of the Sudanese Pound (both, on the official and black market) and soaring inflation. A
lack of finance for large infrastructure projects and a large budget deficit of the govern-
ment are further effects of the dependency on oil and the immediate reduction of its sup-
ply. With the collapse of the oil revenues, other structural weaknesses of the Sudanese
economy became clear such as the high military budget, the various international sanc-
tions on finance, trade and travel, subsidies (e.g. energy) and the dependencies on few
Asian and Arab countries for investment and finance.
16
Source for all data on the economy if not mentioned otherwise: Central Bureau of Statistics
(CBS). Figures for the historic GDP growth are included as Annex 3.
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Figure 3-4: GDP by kind of economic activity and annual growth at constant market
prices (2000 - 2011)
Due to the current political and economic situation described above the future develop-
ment of the Sudanese economy on national level, by sector and on state level is very un-
certain. It is therefore hard to predict even general developments. No official forecast ex-
ists. Nor any detailed economic information was available for this study, e.g. dealing with
the economic characteristics and developments on state level or with the socio-economic
situation of the population in different parts of the country.
Because no reliable data on GDP was available and any kind of assumption on the GDP
growth would have added a high degree of uncertainty the demand forecast was solely
based on historic developments.
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4 Power system in Sudan historic, actual and outlook
The power sector in Sudan went through considerable developments in recent years:
Demand for energy has increased through the demographic as well as economic
development of Sudan and is expected to further increase;
Ambitious targets for the electrification of the people of Sudan are set;
Generation capacity has tripled during the past seven years and several new pro-
jects are under construction or in the planning stage considering the enormous
domestic energy potential;
The power sector has undergone a major reform.
The latest power system planning study dates back nearly five years.
This section provides details on the actual power system and the development in the past
in order to provide assumptions for the demand forecast.
4.1 Institutional and political frame of the power sector
Based on the Federal Cabinet of Ministers decision in 2010 the competencies of the Na-
tional Electricity Cooperation (NEC) have been transferred in real estates and tasks own-
ership, under the umbrella of the MED. Accordingly, MED converted the electricity sector
into five companies:
Merowe Dam Company Ltd, operating Merowe hydro power plant (HPP);
Sudanese Hydropower Generation Company Ltd. (SHGC), responsible for opera-
tion of the remaining HPPs;
Sudanese Thermal Power Generation Company Ltd. (STPG), responsible for op-
eration of all fossil fuel based power plants;
Sudanese Electricity Transmission Company Ltd. (SETCo), which is operating,
maintaining and extending the transmission grid;
Sudanese Electricity Distribution Company Ltd. (SEDCo), which is operating,
maintaining and in cooperation with the states extending the distribution grid.
All the above five companies are under full control of the Ministry which is responsible for
the general policy, planning and for supervising the above utility companies.
In 2012 MED changed into the Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity (MWRE).
Other state institutions involved in the power sector are:
Dam Implementation Unit (DIU) as part of the MED, responsible for the planning of
new HPPs;
Ministry of Finance, providing financing sources for projects and operational budg-
ets;
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Institutions of each state, for instance responsible for the extension of the distribu-
tion grid in their area
Electricity Regulatory Authority, providing regulation and supervision of the elec-
tricity sector.
As part of the current energy policy it is the aim of the Government of Sudan (GoS) to
Increase the overall national electrification ratio to at least 80% by 2031
17
;
Connect all states of Sudan to the national power grid by 2031 - as far as practica-
ble;
Utilize a high share of domestic energy sources - as far as practicable;
Utilize a high share of renewable energy sources considering economic and tech-
nical limitations;
Diversify the energy sources - as far as practicable - in order to increase security
of supply and reduce dependency;
Utilize all hydro potential in the country - as far as practicable.
Electricity in Sudan is subsidised through fuel subsidies and the provision of investment
costs for new power plants, which are not passed through to the customer. Though the
exact share of subsidies is not available it is assumed by the Client that it did not vary
much during the past five years but decreased before that period. For this study
18
, it is
assumed that the level of subsidies will not change considerably and in particular not
steeply, so that the effect on the consumption patterns remains the same. This includes
that any variation of exchange rates, which would have an impact on international costs of
power supply, i.e. for fuels and investments, will also not passed through to the customer.
Section 4.2.6 provides details on how this is applied in the forecast.
4.2 Consumption
This section describes the consumption patterns of the electricity consumers in Sudan in
order to identify key parameters for the demand forecast.
4.2.1 Connections and consumption by sectors and states
Electrification rate (national grid) and connections by sector
Presently electricity only accounts for 2% of the total energy use in the country due to a
low electrification ratio. This is mainly because the Sudanese national power grid covers
17
In addition, electrification targets on state level were provided by the client for each scenario: at
least 50% for moderate , at least 60% for base, and at least 70% for high scenario (see also sec-
tion 2.3.1).
18
During the time of the study, a reduction of fuel subsidies was under discussion due to problems
of the economy and state finance. However, the outcome was not clear to allow for any assumption
for the long-term perspective to be drawn from it.
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only a small portion of the country. For instance, the greater Khartoum area accounts for
two thirds of the total energy consumed in the country. Regions not covered by the na-
tional grid rely on isolated grids (fuelled by fossil fuels), small gasoil-fired generators or
energy substitutes such as kerosene lamps. In mid-2011 there were nearly 1.7 million
customers connected to the national power grid of which more than 85% (1.5 million) were
domestic. The electrification ratio through the national grid or large isolated grids for the
whole country is about 30%
19
. During the past six years, the number of customers dou-
bled (both total and domestic) with an annual average increase of 15% indicating that the
electrification advances though the increase in 2011 was considerably lower
20
. However,
the electrification ratio has increased at a slower path due to the population growth of
about 3%. Figure 4-1 and Table 4-1 shows this effect by comparing the actual electrifica-
tion ratio during the past 5 years and the ratio if no population had occurred.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Electrification ratio - actual (2006 - 2007: estimates)
Electrification ratio - theoretical: no population growth
Electrification rate (annual increase of domestic connections)
Figure 4-1: Electrification ratio (national grid) and rate (2006 - 2011)
19
For the calculation of the electrification ratio an average household size of 6.5 persons per
household is applied. This figure only contains the electrification through the national grid and large
isolated grids (see section 4.2.4). It does not consider off-grid electrification.
20
Information provided by SEDCo indicate that the decline in new connections was caused by mul-
tiple reasons of unique nature which are not expected to prevail, e.g. the institutional transformation
from NEC to SEDCo and related additional requirements for feasibility studies and the economic
problems in 2011.
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Table 4-1: Electrification ratio and rate, households and population (2006 - 2011)
Unit 2006
21
2007
21
2008 2009 2010 2011
Population Million 29.0 29.9 30.9 31.9 32.9 34.0
Households - total Thousand 4,458 4,603 4,753 4,907 5,065 5,227
Households - connect-
ed to the grid
22
Thousand 780 879 1,014 1,170 1,377 1,546
Electrification rate
(annual increase of
domestic connections)
Absolute
terms
(Thousand)
- 99 135 156 207 169
Percentage
(%)
- 13% 15% 15% 18% 12%
Electrification ratio
actual (grid connected)
% 17.5% 19.1% 21.3% 23.8% 27.2% 29.6%
Electrification ratio -
theoretical: no popula-
tion growth
% 17.5% 19.7% 22.7% 26.2% 30.9% 34.7%
These characteristics of a slowed down electrification are expected to prevail since the
population growth will not diminish and the number of new connections is limited by tech-
nical and economic constraints.
These restrictions have to be taken into consideration when planning for the aim of the
Government of Sudan to increase the electrification to 80% by 2031. As detailed in the
Expansion Candidates Report 8.3.4 Technology options for isolated grids and rural elec-
trification there are technical and economic restrictions to extend the national grid to the
rural areas. Therefore, off grid rural electrification has to be considered to supplement the
extension of the national grid. Target values for rural electrification to achieve the overall
electrification ratio were developed for each scenario and state.
Figure 4-2 shows the high share of domestic customers and exponential growth for all
connections until 2010.
21
2006 - 2007: estimates for area of Northern Sudan
22
The number of domestic connections are provided for the end of the respective year. The sum-
mation of the connections on state and locality level provided by SEDCo (used for the calculation of
the forecast) differ from this value, probably because they represent the situation not at the end of
the year.
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (est.)
[
G
W
h
/
a
]
Agricultural
Governmental
Industrial
Commercial
Domestic
Annual growth Total
Figure 4-2: Number of customers by customer group (2005 - 2011)
The connection rate by sector varied as shown in the figure below. While the increase of
domestic customers was slightly above average, a slower growth occurred for commercial
connections (9.4% per year with a tendency for slow down of new connections) and indus-
trial customers (only 2.3% per year). The latter only accounts for 0.1% of all connections.
The increase of agricultural connections was similar for the domestic sector with a ten-
dency towards higher growth.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (est.)
Total Domestic
Commercial Industrial
Governmental Agricultural
Figure 4-3: Connection growth by customer group (2005 - 2011)
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The connection rate also differs from state to state. It is the result of multiple causes, e.g.
policy or focus of electrification projects, population density, economic development or
geographic characteristics. The state specific connection rates were reviewed, adapted
were necessary and applied in the demand forecast. The analysis also revealed, that
states where the urban share of the population exceeds the actual electrification ratio
show a higher connection rate than states where the electrification ratio exceeds the ur-
ban share. In the latter case most of the urban population is probably already reached by
the electrical network while in states with a large share of urban population but low electri-
fication ratio the technical and economic potential for electrification is higher.
Energy consumption by sector
During the past decade the consumption increased by an average of 14% per year, slight-
ly above the growth of connections. While the share of domestic and governmental con-
sumption of total consumption remained stable at about 50% and 14% respectively, the
industrial share decreased from 22% in 2000 to 16% in 2011. In the same period, the
share of agricultural consumption doubled to nearly 5% and the commercial consumption
increased from 12% to 15% (see Figure 4-4). The growth in 2011 was weaker than in the
previous three years mainly due to a much slower growth of commercial, governmental
and domestic consumption.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
[
G
W
h
/
y
e
a
r
]
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
[
S
h
a
r
e
o
f
t
o
t
a
l
c
o
n
s
u
m
p
t
i
o
n
]
Agricultural
Governmental
lndustrial
Commercial
Domestic
Figure 4-4: Power consumption by customer group (2000 - 2011)
Industrial and agricultural show no considerable seasonality of demand. Commercial,
governmental and domestic consumption instead increases by up to 50% during the
month March to October as shown below.
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
[
G
W
h
/
m
o
n
t
h
]
Domestic
Governmental
Commercial
Industrial
Agricultural
Figure 4-5: Monthly consumption by customer group (2011)
Correlation of energy consumption and economic growth
There is a very strong correlation between economic growth, as growth of GDP, and the
consumption of electricity in total and by consumer group. A correlation analysis
23
for the
past 10 years revealed the strongest correlation for commercial, governmental, domestic
consumption and total annual consumption and to a lesser extent for industrial and agri-
cultural consumers. An even stronger correlation was shown if a delay between economic
growth and energy consumption was considered, i.e. a change in economic growth was
followed by change in consumption within a one to four years period
24
. This supports the
assumption that the economic growth has a stronger impact on the consumption than the
other way round.
Energy consumption by sector and state
The consumption by consumer group differs from state to state. These characteristics
mirror partly the economic structure of the country: the states of the Greater Khartoum
Area show a higher share of industrial consumers and the states of the Nile valley have a
higher agricultural consumption. The following map visualises this consumption share of
each consumer group and state as pie chart. The corresponding energy consumption is
displayed as size of the pie chart and each slice. This map also shows the disparity be-
tween the coverage of the national power grid and the isolated grids and the distribution of
(potential consumers) shown as population densities. While the actual grid covers only a
23
Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient.
24
Years delay with highest correlation economic and energy growth by consumer group: Domes-
tic: 3; Agricultural: 3; Industrial: 4; Commercial: 1; Governmental: 3; TOTAL Consumption: 3.
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small portion of the country mainly along the Nile valley large areas with high population
mainly in the South and East are not covered.
Figure 4-6: Map showing consumption by state and consumer group (2011)
12
Specific consumption by sector and state
The average specific consumption
25
during the past five years was stable at about 3.7
MWh per year. This is due to the relatively stable specific consumption of domestic, gov-
ernmental and agricultural consumers at about 2.2, 24 and 26 MWh/year, respectively.
The annual increase averaged at below 1%. The consumption of commercial and indus-
trial entities increased considerably
26
by 30% (4% annual average) and 80% (10% annual
average), from 4.3 to 5.6 MWh/year and from around 400 to 700 MWh/year respectively.
25
Average specific consumption = total consumption / number of all customers
26
For the forecast a linear growth of the specific consumption for each customer group and state is
assumed based on the historic development.
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
[
M
W
h
/
a
f
o
r
i
n
d
u
s
t
r
i
a
l
1
0
M
W
h
/
a
]
Domestic Commercial
Governmental Agricultural
Industrial (x10)
Figure 4-7: Specific consumption by customer group (2005 - 2011)
The rather constant specific consumption can be attributed to the on average lower con-
sumption of newly connected consumers, which levels on an aggregated level the con-
sumption increase of the existing consumers. Since no detailed information on existing
and new consumers was analysed for this study this effect will not be modelled but aver-
age specific consumption applied for all connection types considering the historic annual
increase. The specific consumption varies largely by state, e.g. while for domestic cus-
tomers in Khartoum it is 3.3 MWh/year for most other states the average consumption is
in the range of 1 to 2 MWh/year. This variation will be considered in the demand forecast.
Large power consumers
Few large consumers dominate the energy consumption of the industrial and agricultural
sectors. The 100 largest customers in the country account for more than 11% of the total
consumption. They have an accumulated peak demand of about 100 MW about 7% of the
systems peak demand. The ten largest consumers
27
take half of this demand for energy
and peak power. Their load factor is mostly in the range of 80 to 90% providing demand
for base load to the system. About 30 agricultural schemes account for two thirds of the
agricultural electricity consumption. 40 industrial plants consume half this sectors elec-
tricity demand. This dominance of few large consumers means a strong influence on the
present and future energy demand in these sectors. However, more than 1.5 million small
domestic, commercial and governmental consumers determine the lions share of the total
consumption in Sudan.
27
The 10 largest consumers by electricity consumption include: five public owned consumers
(1 agricultural scheme, 2 sugar factories, 2 industrial plants) and 5 privately held industrial plants.
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There are currently about 20 large consumers with captive power most of them also con-
nected to the national grid. For this study, it was assumed that all but the large consumers
in Port Sudan and the cement factories in Atbara/River Nile currently meet most of their
power needs through the national grid. The large consumers in Port Sudan and Atba-
ra/River Nile, which account for about 150 and 65 MW respectively, are assumed to sup-
ply their own power due to limits of the existing 220 kV transmission line. They are ex-
pected to meet all their power demand through the grid once secure power supply is
available in Port Sudan and the cement factory locations in Atbara, i.e. with the coal-fired
power plant and enhanced transmission capacity, expected for 2017.
4.2.2 Seasonal and daily load characteristics
Annual maximum load
During the past ten years, the annual peak load in Sudan grew steadily at around 13% per
year, similar to the growth of energy consumption. In 2011, the annual peak load was
1,517 MW (gross, at generator output), nearly double the peak load in 2006.
8%
14%
12%
17%
13%
10%
16%
14%
15%
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
15%
17%
19%
21%
23%
25%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
L
o
a
d
[
M
W
]
Maximum annual load (gross) [MW]
Annual growth of peak load [%]
Figure 4-8: Annual peak load (gross) and annual growth rates (2002 - 2011)
Determined by the annual temperature profile, the development of peak loads throughout
the year show one to two maxima, one during the period April to June and one between
August to October (see Figure 4-9 below). Though the temperature during the first peak
period exceeds the temperature of the second period, the higher peak occurs during the
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second period in September / October. This is due to the continuous increase of load
throughout the year.
During the past ten years, the maximum load in the system coincided with the Islamic
month of Ramadan. Since the date of Ramadan (within the Western calendar) moves for-
ward every year, the period of maximum load shifted accordingly. The Consultant esti-
mates this increase of load to amount to 2 to 5%. Within the study period, the month of
Ramadan will move forward towards December/January in 2030. The crucial period for
supplying sufficient capacity to meet the peak demand will be the period until 2020 when
the two factors for high peak demand, Ramadan and the period of high temperatures,
coincide. This effect is assumed to result in an above average increase of the peak load
and a lower load factor. This effect also coincides with an increased available capacity on
a monthly basis from hydro sources compared to the current time of Ramadan and annual
peak load (August). The balancing of peak demand and available capacity is done on a
monthly basis considering these seasonal patterns for demand and supply. However,
since these patterns represent average developments observed in the past exceptional
events, both for the demand and supply side, might affect this comparison in positive and
negative direction.
685
800
993
910
1,153
1,314
1,517
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
L
o
a
d
[
M
W
]
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Figure 4-9: Monthly peak load (2002 - 2011)
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Daily load characteristics
The load curve of the national grid varies between seasons as well as between weekday
and weekend day
28
, as displayed by Figure 4-10 for exemplary days of 2007 and 2011.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
L
o
a
d
[
M
W
]
Time of the day [h]
2007 summer weekday
2007 weekend day
2007 winter weekday
2007 weekend day
2011 summer weekday
2011 weekend day
2011 winter weekday
2011 weekend day
Figure 4-10: Daily load curves for summer/ winter, weekday/weekend day,
2007/2011
The load curve shows a rather flat minimum between midnight and 7am in the morning
and two peaks, one at midday around 2pm and the second in the evening around 8pm.
The absolute maximum load depends on the season and day of the week.
The seasonal characteristic is shown in Figure 4-11, which lists the time of the peak load
for each day in 2011. While the evening peak dominates the months November to March
and makes up around 60% of all absolute peaks in one year, the midday peak dominates
the period April to October, caused by the higher temperatures and higher air condition
(AC) use. As the use of AC is expected to increase, the midday peaks are assumed to be
more distinctive (also for weekend days) in future compared to the evening peak. This
development is indicated in Figure 4-12 for the period 2009 to 2011 and Figure 4-10 for
2007 and 2011. It is a development experienced in many countries in the region.
28
Weekdays: Sunday to Thursday; weekend days: Friday and Saturday. Energy consumption on
Saturdays is on average about 8% higher than on Fridays. In this study, it is not differentiated be-
tween Fridays and Saturdays but an average weekend day is assumed.
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Figure 4-11: Time of daily maximum load (2011)
Figure 4-12: Frequency of daily maximum and minimum load (2009 - 2011)
4.2.3 Load factor
The load factor, the average load
29
faced by the Sudanese power system, varied between
67% (2002) and 59% (2008) during past decade. In recent years, the growth rates of gen-
erated energy exceeded the growth rates of peak load. This caused the load factor to
29
Load factor calculated at generator output.
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slightly increase to 65 and 63% in 2010 and 2011, respectively. For this study, a load fac-
tor of 63% is assumed (marked with a dashed grey line in Figure 4-13) with a slight de-
crease when the peak demand when the two factors for high peak demand, Ramadan and
the period of high temperatures, coincide (see section above).
67%
65%
60%
59%
65%
63%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
P
e
a
k
l
o
a
d
[
M
W
]
/
A
n
n
u
a
l
g
e
n
e
r
a
t
i
o
n
[
G
W
h
/
a
]
Maximum annual load [MW]
Annual generation (gross) [GWh/a]
Load factor [%]
Figure 4-13: Annual generation, peak load and load factor (2002 - 2011)
4.2.4 Isolated grids and rural electrification
There are seven large
30
isolated grids in Sudan, named after the towns they are serving:
Neyala, Al Duane, Al Fashir and Al Genena in Darfur states, Wadi Halfa in North State,
Kadogly and Al Nuhood in Kordufan. Details on their power supply through gasoil-fired
diesel engines are provided in section 4.4.1.
In total, these isolated grids make up about 2% of the grid connected energy consumption
and 3% of all grid-connected customers. Their cumulated peak load is about 4% of the
annual peak load of the national grid.
In total there were 56,000 customer supplied in these grids, up from 44,000 in 2009 with
an average annual growth of 13%, similar to the national grid. Neyala and Al Fashir are by
far the largest grids by consumption and load accounting for about 35% each. In these
two grids and Kadogly the maximum available capacity has been reached so that load
shedding has to be applied, estimated with 4% of the total consumption. The energy con-
sumption increased by 19%, similar to the national grid. The consumption is dominated by
the domestic sector, industrial and agricultural share is low or non-existent. The peak load
30
These isolated grids are operated by STPGCo and SEDCo. Isolated grids operated by other
organisations as well as micro grids are not considered in the analysis.
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developed with 14% annual growth during the past three years, amounting to 40 MW in
2011, up from 30 MW in 2009.
Within the demand forecast, the isolated grids will be connected successively as the re-
spective transmission lines are already planned and are assumed to be realized, though
the implementation schedule are assumed to differ for the three scenarios. The electrifica-
tion process of areas newly connected to the national grid based on the analysis of
15 newly connected localities in the past three years show the following average electri-
fication rates: 1st year of connection to the national grid - 7% of all households connected
(10% for areas with large share of urban population), 2nd year - 65% increase of connec-
tions, 3rd year - 25% increase of connections, 4th year increase of connections similar
to the electrification rate of the state. The actual electrification depends on various factors
such as the share of urban population, the terrain and the financial resources for the par-
ticular areas. For the demand forecast, the above average electrification rates are applied.
For connections other than households, the connection characteristics of the particular
state are applied.
Rural electrification on the level of small isolated grids and household solutions is ex-
pected to supplement the grid-connected electrification. It is dealt with in the Expansion
Candidates Report 8.3.4 Technology options for isolated grids and rural electrification. It
is not directly considered in the demand forecast, but indicative figures are provided for off
grid electrification to meet the overall electrification target and the electrification targets on
state level.
4.2.5 Suppressed demand
In general, non-served demand can only be estimated because of its wide range of inter-
linked causes and - in most cases - insufficient data basis. The following list provides the
estimates for different categories of suppressed demand in Sudan:
Load shedding due to insufficient supply or transmission capacity (especially
during peak hours): since sufficient supply and transmission capacities exist there is
no load shedding on the transmission level. For some isolated grids load shedding ex-
ists due to insufficient supply during peak hours. For the period under consideration no
load shedding is assumed since this study will plan for sufficient supply and transmis-
sion capacity.
Curtailed demand due to poor security and quality of power supply, in particular
during peak hours. This results in either self-supply of electricity and utilisation of en-
ergy substitutes or to not connecting equipment or not replacing broken equipment:
The generation and transmission level in Sudan is relatively stable. In 2011, about 550
incidents (about 350 trips of transmission facilities and 200 trips of generators) hap-
pened with an estimated 2,000 MWh of lost consumption (about 0.03% of total con-
sumption). Only for Port Sudan and Atbara/River Nile, it is assumed that the existing
transmission line from Atbara substation and generator sets in Port Sudan are not suf-
ficient to meet the local demand. There are no large consumers connected to the grid
but many consumers with captive supply. These include for instance the harbour facili-
ties in Port Sudan and the cement factories in Atbara. A peak demand of 150 MW for
Port Sudan harbour facilities and 65 MW for Atbara cement factories with a relatively
high load factor estimated at 90% is assumed to be currently based on captive supply.
They will be considered as connected load as soon as the transmission and supply
system will allow.
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On distribution level low quality and security of supply is more frequent. No compre-
hensive long-term statistics on system failures were available but various reports indi-
cating a widespread curtailed demand due to lower quality or overloading of the distri-
bution system. For this study, a curtailed demand caused by shortcomings of the dis-
tribution grid of 10% of the actual consumption is assumed, though this estimate has
to be considered as very vague. How this share of curtailed demand will develop de-
pends on investments in the distribution grid. This is not possible to estimate. There-
fore, different development of curtailed demand will be one rationale for different de-
mand scenarios.
Insufficient ability to pay for connection and electricity: though available in many
areas not all potential customers are connected to the electrical network. For the peo-
ple and organisations which are better off this is mostly due to the curtailed demand
detailed above. But the main reason as in many similar countries in the region is
assumed to be insufficient income to pay for connections and electricity. Sudan still is
among the least developed countries in the world with a high share of people under
the poverty line.
Insufficient coverage of power grid: currently, only a small portion of potential cus-
tomers are connected to the grid since only about 3% of the area of Sudan are within
a few kilometres reach of the existing electrical network.
The potential share of electricity consumption by customer who are currently out of
reach of the electrical network or not able to pay for electricity (if they had access to
the power grid and sufficient income) can be estimated by extrapolating the average
consumption of existing customers to this group of potential customers. Within the
demand forecast, the electrification ratio and rate stand for serving at least a part of
these potential customers in future.
The overall suppressed demand in Sudan is estimated at three to four times the current
demand, i.e. the existing power system only serves between a fourth and fifth of the po-
tential demand. This estimate is based on the extrapolation of the average realised de-
mand of the connected customers to the total population and area and the above assump-
tion on suppressed demand due to shortcomings of the distribution grid. However, this
estimation is very rough but it can serve as a reference point for the current electricity
supply and as an indication for the potential future demand for electricity in Sudan. One
aim of this study is to serve in future as much of this suppressed demand as possible, e.g.
by aiming at a high electrification ratio and connection of currently unconnected areas,
within the given frame conditions.
4.2.6 Ability and willingness to pay
The ability and willingness of consumers to pay for electricity have an impact on the actual
and future consumption through the customers sensitivity towards price changes, so
called price elasticity of demand for electricity. Compared to other consumer goods includ-
ing other energy products, the electricity price elasticity is often rather low in industrial and
to a lesser extent in developing countries. However, this strongly depends on the national
or local conditions such as income situation, budget share for energy, consumption pat-
terns or substitution opportunities. In Sudan, the high penetration of pre-paid metres prob-
ably increase the elasticity since the consumers immediately recognize any price changes
compared to the conventional metering and billing. The relatively low tariffs in Sudan
probably have the opposite effect.
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Reliable information on the ability and willingness to pay in Sudan would require in-depths
analysis which were not part of this study. In addition, this issue is in particular uncertain
for Sudan since it strongly depends on the actual and perceived socio-economic situation
of the consumers where reliable information do not exist and future developments are
unsure. Further, no need and political will were reported that electricity tariffs are going to
be changed in the short, medium and long-term. Also, slow and gradual increases or de-
crease of tariffs and subsidies which might occur during the study period will have a lower
effect.
Therefore, within this study it is assumed that the electricity prices, i.e. willingness and
ability to pay based on tariffs and income
31
, remain in the historic range; thus, allowing the
use of historic consumption data.
4.3 Transmission and distribution
This section provides details on the power transmission and distribution sector in Sudan in
order to allow within the expansion planning process the identification of gaps in the elec-
trical network for transmission of energy and power.
4.3.1 Existing power grid
The existing electrical network in Sudan has been designed for an operating voltage level
up to 500 kV. This fact is giving the network the capability to transfer available generated
electricity from remote hydropower plants like Merowe HPP, and Roseires HPP to the
main load centres of the country that are located at relative long distances of up to 500 km
like the greater Khartoum area with 60% of the total load. Several other production sites
are locally supporting the load demand, especially in Khartoum itself and sites in the east-
ern states, i.e. Sinnar, Al Gadarif and Red Sea.
Of the five companies which manage the electricity supply in Sudan (see section 4.1) the
Sudanese Electricity Transmission Company Ltd. (SETCo) is responsible for maintaining,
operating and expanding of the transmission grid. Likewise, the Sudanese Electricity Dis-
tribution Company Ltd. (SEDCo) is responsible for the distribution grid.
The main grid system is divided into Khartoum, Central, Eastern and Northern areas. The
electrical system comprises the 500 kV National Grid branched to the 220 kV and 110 kV
level to the West and 220 kV / 110 kV / 66 kV at the East of Sudan. The number of trans-
mission lines and total length by voltage is provided in the table below
32
. The transmission
of electricity takes place through two interconnected electrical grids -- the Blue Nile Grid
and the Western grid covering geographically only a small portion of the country. The
distribution of electricity is performed on 33 kV and 11 kV voltage levels. Isolated power
systems rely on small gasoil-fired generators and the voltage levels implementation of
33 kV and 11 kV for local distribution.
31
This includes subsidies and any effect of exchange rate variations as described in section 4.1.
32
Source for all data on the transmission and distribution network if not mentioned otherwise:
SETCo and SEDCo
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Table 4-2: Transmission system length by voltage level
Voltage level Number of lines Total length
kV # km
500 kV 3 966
220 kV 28 5286
110 kV 27 1100
66 kV 5 293
During the last decade, the electricity authorities have implemented various generation
and transmission projects focusing on networks reliability and compliance with the system
requirements. In line with this developments approximately 1,500 MW have been integrat-
ed in the generation sector together with a considerable extension in transmission lines
and central systems for controlling and monitoring the transmission as well as the distribu-
tion grids. The listed projects in the table below, are the most relevant and most recent
electrical network projects implemented during the past years. In addition, during the past
few years, the electrical network system has been experiencing various project implemen-
tations with regard to generation, transmission and distribution focusing on the mitigation
of supplys constraints due to the rapidly increasing national load.
Table 4-3: Transmission projects commissioned in the past years
#
Name Sub-
station
Ca-
pacity
Voltage Overhead lines Year
MVA kV Name (km)
1 New Load Dis-
patch Centre
- - - - 2001-2007
2 Merowe HPP
500 kV transmis-
sion system
- - 500 Merowe Atbara (237 km);
Merowe Markhiat (346 km);
Kabbashi Markhiat (37 km)
2004-2009
3 Interconnection
Sudan - Ethiopia
- - 220 Gedaref Ethiopia 2008-2012
4 Ezba-Hasahsa-
Gineid
Ezba 2x100 110-33-11
Hasahsa 2x150 220-110-33
2x100 110-33-11
Gineid 2x60 110-33-11
5 Dongola - Wadi
Halfa
Dongola 2x60 220-33-11 Dongola - Wawa
Wawa 2x60 220-33-11
6 Banat Banat 2x100 110-33-11
7 Elgamuiea -
Banat
Gamuiea 2x150 110-33-11
8 White Nile Grid Jebel Aulia 2x150 220-110-11
Mashkour 2x100 220-110-11 Mashkour - Jebel Aulia
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#
Name Sub-
station
Ca-
pacity
Voltage Overhead lines Year
MVA kV Name (km)
Rabak 2x100 220-110-11 Rabak Umrwaba
Rank 2x60 220-110-11 Rank Rabak
Roseires 2x60 220-33-11 Roseires Rank
Umrwaba 2x60 220-33-11
Tendalty 2x60 220-33-11
Elobied 2x60 220-33-11 Eraha Elobied
9 Eastern Grid Showak 2x50 220-33-11 Gedaref Showak
Aroma 2x50 220-33-11
New Halfa 2x100 220-33-11 New Halfa Kassala
Kassala 2x100 220-33-11 Kassala Aroma
Girba 2x100 220-66-33 Showak Girba
The geographical configuration of the power system in Sudan (2010) is enclosed as a
schematic network topology in the figure below.
Figure 4-14: Schematic network topology Sudan 2010 (Source: SETCo)
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Until recently, no interconnection with neighbouring countries existed. In 2011, an inter-
connection of the Sudanese system within the EAPP/EAC (Eastern Africa Power Pool/
East African Community) project via Gedaref-220 kV to Ethiopia has been realized and
started operation in 2012. It have been agreed that in year 2013, Sudan will import at least
100 MW firm electrical power from Ethiopia through this interconnection.
4.3.2 Operation criteria and network characteristics
Voltage and frequency
Presently, the national electrical system of Sudan operates on the transmission level
standards tensions from 66 kV, 110 kV, 220 kV and 500 kV; similarly on the distribution
levels the standards tension of 11 kV and 33 kV have been implemented in the networks
scheme. The nominal fundamental system frequency for the electrical network is 50 Hz.
The range of variation (long duration) for system voltage during normal conditions at any
connection point have been settled to be in the limits of 95% and 105 % of the nominal
voltage at its root-mean-square value (RMS). Correspondingly, the system frequency lim-
its for variations ranges between 49.5 Hz and 50.5 Hz (+/- 1%) under normal conditions.
The electricity authorities foresee that system voltage and frequency are under monitoring
and control by the grid owner / system operator, i.e. SETCo.
Redundancy and network planning
A redundancy criterion (N-1) for transmission and distribution schemes is generally tar-
geted, but limited due to costly investments, few parts in the transmission network topolo-
gy provides redundancy and sufficient transmission capacity, nonetheless this areas are
becoming more crucial due to the rapidly national load growth. The development in the
transmission system for new projects is concentrated on the application of the N-1 redun-
dancy criterion.
Peak load and on-grid power plants
In 2011, Sudan had a peak power production of 1,517 MW on 2 August, 2 pm of which
968 MW (64%) were hydropower plants, 295 MW steam power generation at Khartoum
North and Garri, 14 MW gas turbine generation at Khartoum North, and 232 MW com-
bined cycle power generation at Garri. The country's main power generation plant is the
Merowe HPP with an installed capacity of 1250 MW located on the river Nile, approxi-
mately 350 km north of Khartoum. Due to its size, its contribution to base and peak load
and the distance to the main load centres it is also the most crucial plant for the electrical
network. Below the grid-connected power plants are listed comparing their contribution to
the peak production with their installed capacity.
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Table 4-4: Power generation capacities and contribution to peak production (2011)
Plant name Capacity
(installed gross)
Power production
(at 2011 peak load, 2 August, 2pm)
MW MW Share of total %
Merowe HPP 1250 868 57%
Roseires HPP 280 91 6%
Sennar HPP 15 9 1%
Jebal Aulia HPP 30 0 0%
Khashem El Girba HPP 10 4 0.3%
Sub-total hydro 1,585 972 64%
Khartoum North ST (Units 1-6) 380 185 12%
Garri 1&2 CCGT 360 232 15%
Garri ST 110 110 7%
Khartoum North GT 50 14 1%
Port Sudan approx. 30 MW 5 0.3%
Sub-Total 890 546 36%
Total 2,515 1,518 100%
4.3.3 Challenges to the network and committed / planned expansions
Though considerably expanded and strengthened in the past, the Sudanese electrical
network faces various challenges in the medium and long term, for instance:
Rise of load from the existing load centres through existing and partly deficient
network: increasing the risk of faults and the need for reinforcements;
Rise of load from new distant load centres to be connected to the national grid
(e.g. the Darfur region which is currently isolated) through long distance transmis-
sion and distribution lines: increasing the risk of voltage fluctuations;
The governments ambitious plan to considerably increase the electrification of the
country both in terms of states and households connected: requiring a significantly
increase of investments in electrification projects across the whole country and
corresponding expansions of generation, transmission and distribution capacities;
Levelling the seasonal fluctuation of hydro power generation and firm capacity with
thermal generation at other generation sites;
Integration of generation from intermittent renewable energy sources such as wind
and solar energy: requiring an efficient monitoring- and dispatch system.
To face these challenges several projects are under construction and in the tendering
phase supported with numerous planning studies in process for expansion and strength-
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ening of the existing network. The following listed projects provide an overview of the
technical efforts across various regions of the country as provided by SETCo:
Table 4-5: Projects under construction
#
Name Substa-
tion
Ca-
pacity
Voltage Overhead lines
33
Expected
commissioning
/ status
MVA kV Name
1 Afra Afra 2x100 110-33-11 - Exp. Dec. 2012
2 Obied-
Babanoosa
- Al Fula
Debebat 2x60 220-33-11 El Obeid - Adibebad On hold
Abu Zabad 2x60 220-33-11 Adibebad Abu Zabad On hold
Al Fula 2x60 220-33-11 Abu Zabad Al Fula On hold
Babnosa 2x60 220-33-11 Al Fula Babanoosa On hold
3 Wawa
Wadi Halfa
Wadi Halfa 2x60 220-33-11 Wawa - Wadi Halfa Exp. Dec. 2012
Table 4-6: Committed projects (in tendering process or tendering completed)
#
Name Substa-
tion
Ca-
pacity
33
Expected
commissioning
/ status
MVA kV Name (km)
1 Babano-
sa- Adila-
Aldean-
Nyala-El
Fasher
4 new and
1 exten-
sion
220 637 Committed, EPC
and financing
signed, construc-
tion start not fixed
yet
2 Nyala-
Kass-
Zalienge-
Genenina
4 new 220 350 Committed, con-
struction start not
fixed yet
3 Atbra-
Kabashi
2 new 500 292 Committed, EPC
signed, construc-
yet
4 South
Kordufan
Abasiya
Umrawaba
2x60
Exten-
sion
220-110-33 Umrawaba Abasiya
(84km)
Committed, EPC
signed, construc-
yet
Rashad 2x60 220-110-33 Abasiya Rashad (45km)
Abujebeha 2x60 220-110-33 Rashad Abujebeha
(50km)
Kologi 2x60 220-110-33 Abujebeha Kalogi (73km)
Talodi 2x60 220-110-33 Kalogi - Talodi (63km)
Kadugli 2x60 220-110-33 Talodi - Kadugli (86km)
33
Overhead lines: 220 kV if not mentioned otherwise.
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#
Name Substa-
tion
Ca-
pacity
33
Expected
commissioning
/ status
MVA kV Name (km)
Lagawa 2x60 220-110-33 Al Fula Lagawa (93km)
Dalang 2x60 220-110-33 Al Debebat Dalang
(53km)
5 North
Kordufan
Al Fula Al Nohood
(110km)
6 Khartoum
Ring
Rein-
forcement
n.a. 2373 201 Committed, EPC
signed, financing
under discussion,
construction start
not fixed yet
7 River Nile n.a. 1250 Atbara-Barbar (36km)
Barbar-El Shereik (100km)
Barbar-Alghubush
El-Shereik-Abu Hamad
(90km)
In addition, there are numerous projects under discussion or are currently being studied
by SETCo. The projects according to the transmission plan of SETCo are provided by
state in the table below
34
.
Projects with regard to the connection of Port Sudan, interconnections with other countries
and distribution projects are as follows:
Connection Port Sudan (load centre and power generation, i.e. coal and wind)
Option 1: 2x220 kV from Upper Atbara including electrification along the overhead
line including line sections Aroma Durdeab Haya Swakin Swakin Port
Sudan 2 (see table below for details). This is also the important project for con-
necting the eastern grid to the Red Sea.
Option 2: existing 220 kV connection with Atbara to 2x220 kV
Option 3: existing 220 kV connection with Atbara ended by 2x500 kV
Interconnection projects: The eastern Nile basin countries including Sudan, Ethiopia
and Egypt have long been planning together a regional electrical network scheme.
Besides the realized interconnection with Ethiopia, further plans and projects are on
investigation supported by system studies like the interconnection from Kosti (Sudan)
to Ethiopia and Egypt via 500 kV voltage level. It is further envisaged to increase the
import from Ethiopia on a new 500 kV line. Further, an export to Egypt is under inves-
tigation (600 kV HVDC).
Distribution expansion: based on the five year plan for 2012 to 2016 SEDCo intends to
extend the 33 and 11 kV distribution grid by about 9,000 km, more than 400 substa-
tions and more than 10,000 transformers, which could supply about 1,600 MW at 50%
maximum load. This is double of the annual load increase on consumer level in the
past years.
34
Excluding committed projects and projects under construction , listed in the tables above.
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Table 4-7: Projects in planning stage (transmission plan)
#
State Overhead lines Distance Voltage
Name km kV
1 Al Gezira Mashkur Managil 80 220
Managil Marinjan 65 220
2 Red Sea PortSudan-1 - PortSudan-2 30 220
PortSudan-1 - FreeZone 30 220
FreeZone - Swaken 31 220
Swaken - Tokar 100 220
Tokar - Groura 105 220
Sinkat - Haya 75 220
Arkeyi - Portsudan-2 75 220
Aroma - Durdeab 195 220
3 Blue Nile Roseires - Karnkarn 90 220
Karnkarn - Kurmuk 60 220
Gully - Al Gablin 150 220
4 North Kordufan Al Fula - Ghbesh 125 220
Obeid - Bara 60 220
Bara - Sodari 155 220
Sodari - Ham. Elwiz 125 220
Sodari - Ham. Elshekh 130 220
5 South Kordufan Babanosa - Al Mujlad 35 220
Kadogli Heban 80 110
Al Mujlad Abye 170 220
Nama Hejlej 90 220
6 North Darfur Ghebesh- Um kadada 200 220
Um kadada - Al Fasher 140 220
Al Fasher - Melit 145 110
Melit - Kutum 65 110
Milet - Al Malaha 150 110
Al Fasher - Tawila 60 110
Tawila - Kebkabiya 75 110
7 West Darfur Geneneina Kolbus 70 110
Kolbus - Al Tina 60 110
Zalienge Garsila 80 110
8 South Darfur Nyala Airport - Nyala Industrial 10 220
Nyala Airport - Nyala Broadcast 12 220
Nyala - Sheariya 75 110
Nyala - Eid Alfursan 80 220
Eid Alfursan - Rahad Elberdi 70 220
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#
State Overhead lines Distance Voltage
Name km kV
Rahad Elberdi - Umdafouk 140 110
Nyala - Greada 90 220
Greada - Buram 95 220
Buram - Hufrat Alnahs Nahas 140 220
Greada - Tuls 75 110
9 500kV projects Atbara - Kabashi 292 500
Jabal Aulia - Markhait 80 500
Jabal Aulia - Bagier 40 500
Kabashi - Bagier 90 500
Hashasia - Bagier 90 500
Arkeyi - Atbra 550 500
The implementation of the planned system developments require the extension of the
500 kV system (or even implementation of higher levels) in order to cover all areas of the
network. The analysis of alternatives with multiple circuit configurations and a division of
large load centres into multiple substations e.g. 220 kV/500 kV with a defined firm capaci-
ty (e.g. 2X250 MVA 3X250 MVA) will be indispensable. Achieving the expected high
demand growth will also require a significantly invest in electrification projects across the
whole country with adequate expansions of transmission and distribution capacities. Fail-
ure to complete the envisaged plans and projects and/or lower growth rates in final con-
nection to the distribution networks and/or inadequate networks expansion will inevitably
lead to lower outturn levels of electricity demand and/or load supply constraints and load
shedding.
4.4 Generation
This section provides details on the power generation sector in Sudan in order to allow
within the expansion planning process the identification of supply gaps for energy and
power (power plants capacity) on an annual and seasonal level.
The generation sector in Sudan is determined by two main factors:
The high share of hydropower through low operational costs; and
The fluctuation of the underlying water source throughout the year requiring addi-
tional thermal generation.
Hydropower has always played an important role in the power generation in Sudan. The
commissioning of the Merowe hydropower plant (HPP) in 2009 more than doubled the
share of hydropower. It covers about 80% of the current demand for electric energy in the
national grid (up from about 30%). However, its share is expected to decrease in future
due to growing demand, which can only be partly met by new hydropower plants. With the
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availability of domestic crude oil and petroleum products from the early 2000s thermal
generation capacity increased several fold. Nowadays it generates the remaining energy
(some 20%) and - most notably - provides power during times of reduced hydro sources.
Due to the high share of hydro sources and the location of the main load centres, virtually
all plants are located along the river Nile and its tributaries and in the greater Khartoum
area. Several diesel engines supply energy to isolated grids, mainly in the western areas
of Sudan.
The map below shows the location, type and capacity of existing (circle) and committed
(square & expected first year of operation) power plants. For guidance the state borders,
main rivers and large settlements (orange) are also displayed. Details on the plants are
provided in the following paragraphs.
Figure 4-15: Map of Sudan existing and committed power plants
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4.4.1 Existing power plants
Installed capacity and available capacity
With regard to the capacity in a system with fluctuating hydro generation, the expansion
planning process focuses on the actual available capacity of each plant and the whole
system for certain periods during the year. The installed capacity is provided for compari-
son reason. Another restriction for the expansion planning is the available energy (aver-
age or firm) which will be described further down.
The available capacity is the generation capacity actually available to the power system at
power plant sent-out (i.e. after self-consumption). It is given for certain periods in the year
(e.g. months or weeks) and should be daily available at least for the hours of peak de-
mand. This parameter is in particular important to assess the capacity of hydro power
plants. Due to limited water sources they might have a lower firm capacity (i.e. capacity
permanently available for a longer period) but a considerable peaking capability to serve
the peak demand. For thermal power plants in Sudan, this capacity is assumed to be
available throughout the year
35
and the whole study period. In Sudan, thermal capacity is
also not restricted by network requirements such as spinning reserve. However, for sev-
eral months in the year hydro capacities in Sudan stay short of their maximum available
capacity values due to their dependence on available discharges and head which chang-
es through the course of the year as well as on operational modes which have to respect
irrigation demand and other needs as well. For Sudan the lowest values relate to the be-
ginning of the wet season when for sluicing operation the reservoir water level is kept low,
resulting in a low head and substantially less energy generation, even partially to no pow-
er output at all when the available head drops below minimum required head. The maxi-
mum available capacity of each plant was analysed on a monthly level, providing capacity
actually available for peaking for each month (monthly available capacity). They have
been established on the basis of simulation results for Merowe and Roseires and opera-
tional hourly data available for the years of 2009 to 2011 for the remaining plants.
The total installed generation capacity (gross capacity including self-consumption) con-
nected to the Sudanese National Grid in 2012 amounts to 2,485 MW, 1,585 MW or 64%
of which stemming from hydropower sources and the remaining of 900 MW or 36%
stemming from conventional thermal generation sources, all of which are petroleum prod-
ucts, i.e. heavy fuel oil (HFO) and gasoil.
The corresponding numbers expressed in terms of maximum available capacity (net ca-
pacity / sent out) in a year amount to a total of 2,352 MW, 1,551 MW or 64% of which are
related to hydro and 801 MW or 36% related to thermal generation. This is about 5% low-
er than the gross capacity and derives from the self-consumption of the plants and the
unavailability of Khartoum North Unit 2
36
. The available capacity ranges between the max-
imum available capacity of 2,352 MW and 1,853 MW (for the whole system, and 1,052
MW for the hydro power plants only), about 20% below. This lowest capacity happens to
be at their lowest point for all plants in total during the month of August, determined by the
35
Planned outage through maintenance is not considered in this definition.
36
Note: Merowe has to be operated with a reduction by about 150 MW. The reason for this reduc-
tion is assumed to be network stability requirements, i.e. Merowe has to be operated with spinning
reserve to avoid network failures if one unit trips. This spinning reserve is not deducted from the
available capacity but applied as a general reserve margin requirement in the balancing of supply
and demand.
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lowest capacity of Merowe HPP. In August, typically, plants reach their monthly available
capacities of 872 MW for Merowe, 164 MW for Roseires and 7 MW, 0 MW and 9 MW re-
spectively for Sennar, Jebel Aulia and Khasm Elgirba.
Figure 4-16 shows this seasonal development of available capacity.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
[
M
W
]
Available capacity - per
month (hydro)
Maximum available
capacity - year (hydro)
Figure 4-16: Available capacity by month and annual maximum available capacity
Figure 4-17 exhibits the development of the above presented and described capacity val-
ues between 2006 and 2012 including hydro and thermal sources
37
.
For direct comparison, the chart also exhibits the maximum available capacity values for
each plant for the year 2012 (in the very right column). Whereas maximum and low avail-
able capacities are equal for thermal plants, such parameters for hydro plants do differ (as
explained above), the very fact of which representing the reason for a jump in column
heights from the low available capacities in 2012 to maximum available capacities in the
same year. Consequently, the total installed capacity of all hydro power plants, which
does exceed the current peak demand, is not able to cover the need for power throughout
the year
38
.
37
Details for commissioned and retired plants:
(i) Merowe HPP: start before August 2009, 872 MW peaking capacity.
(ii) Garri 4 ST (sponge coke): start before August 2010, 95 MW firm capacity.
(iii) Khartoum North Unit 2 ST (HCGO): taken out of service before 2011 reducing the firm ca-
pacity by 28 MW.
(iv) Khartoum North Units 5&6 ST (HFO): start before August 2011, 190 MW firm capacity.
(v) Grid-connected diesel engines (e.g. Port Sudan, Kassala) running on gasoil are assumed
to cease production and be taken off grid causing a slight decrease of firm capacity from
2011 to 2012.
38
The systems seasonal power production detailed on page 37. Details on the operation of Mer-
owe and Roseires with regard to the monthly firm capacity as well as actual minimum and maxi-
mum operation are provided in Figure 4-21 and Figure 4-22.
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012
maximum
available
capacity
[
M
W
]
Garri 4 U1-2 ST Sponge Coke exists
Grid-connected diesel engines GO
Garri-2 Block1+2 CCGT2+1 Gasoil exists
Khartoum North GT GT Gasoil exists
Khartoum North 5+6 ST HFO exists
Khartoum North 2 ST HCGO exists
Khashm El Girba HP Hydro exists
Jebal Aulia HP Hydro exists
Sennar HP Hydro exists
Roseires HP Hydro exists
Merowe HP Hydro exists
Peak load (annual)
Figure 4-17: Development of available capacity (low) between 2006 and 2012 and
maximum available capacity for 2012
In summary, the available capacity available to the system throughout the year in 2012 is
1,853 MW, about 25% lower than the gross installed capacity. Hydro and thermal sources
account for 1,052 MW (57% of total) and 801 MW (43% of total) respectively.
Average annual energy and seasonal energy production
As detailed above, for the capacity, the expansion planning focusses on the available ca-
pacity on an annual as well as on a monthly basis in order to avoid power shortages. For
energy, the focus lies on the average energy on a seasonal and annual basis in order to
allow for the economic and technical analysis of the typical operation of the system. In
addition, as a precondition, the firm energy, i.e. the energy available with a probability of
90%, has to be sufficient to meet the energy demand on a seasonal and annual basis.
With regard to average generated energy, hydropower sources contribute around 80% of
annual energy
39
. The remaining share derives mainly from HFO and sponge coke fuelled
steam units (14% and 6% respectively). About 2% derive from gasoil-fuelled generation,
mainly from Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT) at Garri
40
. There was a shift from pre-
dominantly thermal generation to hydro generation in recent years as exhibited in Figure
39
2010: 84%; 2011: 78%
40
Down from 10% in 2010 due to the commissioning of the lower cost sponge coke fuelled steam
units at Garri 4. Besides the CCGTs only two gas turbines in Khartoum North and few units in Port
Sudan are based on gasoil.
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4-18: total annual energy (net) has increased from about 4,200 GWh in 2007, two thirds of
which were related to thermal production, to about 8,200 GWh in 2011 with only 22% de-
riving from thermal generation. Power production of the newly installed Merowe HPP has
been phased in since 2009 (with annual energy of about 5,000 GWh per year) and repre-
sents the main reason for the above relative shift in power production from thermal to hy-
dro sources. Sponge coke fuelled Garri 4 steam turbines took up operation in 2010 provid-
ing 140 GWh, 450 GWh in 2011 and 675 GWh of annual energy in 2012 and beyond.
Khartoum North 5+6 steam units assumed production in 2011 providing 620 GWh in 2011
and 1,408 GWh of annual energy in 2012 and beyond.
The figure below displays the actual generated energy during the past years and com-
pares it with the firm energy in 2012. This amounts to roughly 13,000 GWh, 160% of the
energy need in 2011.
Figure 4-18: Development of annual generated energy (net) between 2007 and 2011
and firm energy for 2012
In addition to the annual energy, the generated energy by season has to be considered in
the expansion planning process. The following chart (Figure 4-19) exhibits the monthly
generation of energy of the two main hydro plants Merowe and Roseires as well as of all
thermal plants during the period 2009 until 2011. As illustrated, Merowe production peaks
in August when its capacity is at its lowest indicating that there is sufficient energy but
reduced head for reasons explained above. Roseires production peaks in October and
thermal production peaks in April / May of each year. The figure shows that the commis-
sioning of Merowe allowed thermal generation to be decreased throughout the year and in
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total by 50% between 2009 and 2010. It grew again by 50% in 2011 mainly by providing
energy during the period May to October when hydro generation could not be further in-
creased to meet the demand. Figure 4-20 which shows the accumulated generation split
by unit shows a shift within the thermal generation from 2010 to 2011. This is caused by
the commissioning of the lower cost steam units, the HFO fuelled 5&6 at Khartoum North
and sponge coke fuelled Garri 4 which replaced the more pricey CCGT generation in Gar-
ri. Thereby, CCGT contributed energy mainly in May to August when the other units were
at their limits.
Figure 4-19: Seasonal generation profiles based on monthly generation by Merowe,
Roseires and combined thermal units during the period 2009 2011
Figure 4-20: Seasonal generation profiles based on monthly energy generation pro-
duced by generation facilities during the period 2009 - 2011
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The following Table 4-8 provides an overview of the existing hydro and thermal power
generation facilities in the country for the year 2012 including years of plant commission-
ing and expected retirement. It also includes the corresponding values on installed gross
capacity, highest and lowest monthly figures for available capacity and firm annual ener-
gy. The main characteristics of each existing plant are described further below. Further
plant parameters and characteristics such as planned and forced outage rates, auxiliary
power demand, spinning reserve, and costs are included in Annex 4.
Table 4-8: Existing hydro and thermal power generation facilities
Plant name
41
Operation
period
Fuel
type
42
Capacity Energy
First
year
Last
year
(expect
pec-
ted)
(second-
ary fuel)
In-
stalled
(gross)
Available
high
(net)
low
(August)
Firm
annual
MW MW MW GWh
Hydro
Merowe 2009
beyond
study
period
43 hydro
1,250 1,240 872 5,450
Roseires 1966 280 270 164 1,050
Sennar 1962 15 12 7 50
Jebal Aulia 2003 30 19 0 55
Khashm Elgirba 1964 10 10 9 67
Sub-total 1,585 1,551 1,052 6,672
Thermal
Khartoum North 1+2 ST 1984 2015 HCGO 60 28
44
28 212
Khartoum North 3+4 ST 1994 2031 HFO
(HCGO)
120 110 110 840
Khartoum North 5+6 ST 2011 2041 HFO 200 190 190 1,408
Khartoum North GT 1+2 1992/
2001
2015/
2028
GO 50 34 34 265
Garri-1 Block 1+2 CCGT 2003 2028 GO (LPG) 180 170 170 1,346
Garri-2 Block 1+2 CCGT 2003/
2007
2028 GO (LPG) 180 170 170 1,346
Garri 4 U1+2 ST 2010 2028 Sponge
Coke
110 100 100 708
Sub-total 900 801 801 6,124
Total 2,485 2,352 1,853 12,796
41
GT: Gas Turbine; ST: Steam Turbine; CCGT: Combined Cycle Gas Turbine
42
GO: Gasoil; HFO: Heavy Fuel Oil; HCGO: Heavy Coked Gas Oil; LPG: Liquefied Petroleum
Gas (not available anymore)
43
Lifetime of dams exceed 50 years. Rehabilitation needs (e.g. electric equipment) will be consid-
ered in expansion plan. For Sennar: rehabilitation and upgrading on-going.
44
Khartoum North ST Unit 2 is currently out of service.
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Thermal power plants
Garri power plant
The Garri power plant is the second largest power plant in Sudan
45
. It is located near El
Gaili, approximately eighty (80) kilometres north of Khartoum.
The plant consists of four combined cycle blocks each comprising of 2 gas turbines (plus
2 boilers) plus 1 steam turbine. They were designed for dual fuel operation with gasoil and
LPG. Due to a lack of sufficient amounts of LPG they are nowadays operated mainly with
the more costly gasoil. The 12 units were installed in 2003 and are expected to run until
2028. Installed capacities amount to 180 MW (4 GT + 2 ST) for Garri 1 Block 1 and 2 and
180 MW (4 GT+2 ST) for Garri 2 Block 1 and 2. All CCGT can be operated in open cycle
mode. Two more steam turbines totalling 110 MW capacity installed running on sponge
coke were added in 2010. Flue gas cleaning systems are neither installed nor planned.
Since they have the lowest costs of all thermal generation the Garri 4 steam units are typ-
ically operated at full load throughout the year; thus operating as base load. Due to the
high fuel costs the CCGTs are nowadays only operated during months of high demand;
operating as intermediate and peak load plants.
Khartoum North power plant
Khartoum North power plant is the third largest power plant in Sudan. It is located in the
countrys main load centre, the Greater Khartoum Area. It lies in the industrial area of
Khartoum North, north of Khartoum four kilometres off the right bank of the Blue Nile.
It comprises a total of six steam and three gas units. The first two steam turbines (Units 1
& 2) totalling 60 MW installed capacity and running on HCGO* were installed in 1984.
Unit 2 is currently out of service and might not be available again before the retirement in
2015. Two more steam turbines (Units 3 & 4) of double capacity and fuelled by HCGO
and HFO were added in 1994 and rehabilitated in 2010/2011. Steam units 5 and 6 total-
ling 200 MW were installed in 2011 . Except units 1 and 2, which are expected to be de-
commissioned in 2015, the other four steam turbine units are expected to be running until
or beyond the study horizon, i.e., year 2031. Two of the three installed gas turbines are
available, totalling 50 MW and running on GO. They were commissioned in 1992 and
2001 and are expected to produce power until 2015 and 2028 respectively. Flue gas
cleaning systems only exist for sulphur oxides at the newly commissioned steam unity
Khartoum North 5 and 6.
The steam units are typically operated at full load for several weeks and months mainly
during the period of high demand between February and October; thus operating at base
load. The gas turbines operate only few hours during times of peak load, e.g. 60 and 800
hours in 2010 and 2011 respectively. Before Merowe was commissioned, they were run-
ning more than 50% of the year.
45
In terms of installed capacity
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Small thermal power plants (grid connected and isolated grids)
In addition to the power plants listed above, several smaller thermal power plants exist
which either supplied energy to the main grid or isolated grids.
The following thermal power stations have been operated on-grid in recent years. How-
ever, for the purpose of the generation expansion planning exercise under this assign-
ment such plants are assumed to be taken off the main grid either out of service or for
feeding into isolated grids. Such plants may still be capable of providing short term net-
work stabilizing services to the main grid; however, no such services will be accounted for
in relation to generation expansion planning.
El Fau Station: 2 diesel engines, gasoil, approx. 13 MW installed capacity, de-
commissioned after 2010;
Kassala Station: varying number of diesel engines, gasoil, approx. 7 MW total in-
stalled capacity in 2011, decommissioned after 2011;
Kashm Elgirba Station: 2 diesel engines, gasoil, 7 MW installed capacity, decom-
missioned after 2010;
Port Sudan Station A D: more than 30 diesel engines, HFO/gasoil, approx. 30
MW installed capacity in 2011, on-grid for network stability (about 700 hours in
2011), assumed to be decommissioned after 2011.
The following table summarises thermal capacity available in the country which feeds into
eight isolated grids.
Table 4-2: Existing thermal capacity in isolated grids (2011)
Isolated grid
(name of
town)
Location
(state)
First year
of opera-
tion
Genera-
tion type
/ fuel
Number
of units
Capacity
installed
(gross)
Peak
load
(2011)
MW MW
Neyala South Darfur 1985
Diesel
engine /
gasoil
7 29 16
Al Duane East Darfur 1985 2 8 2.3
Al Fashir North Darfur 2000 11 15 11.5
El Genena West Darfur 1989 4 9 3.7
Wadi Halfa North 1993 5 3 1.8
Kadogly South Kordufan 2004 6 8 2.6
El-Nuhood North Kordufan 2004 4 4 2.1
Total 76 40
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Hydro power plants
Merowe
Merowe HPP is the by far the largest power plant in Sudan. Merowe Dam and the associ-
ated hydropower plant were constructed at Merowe Island roughly 350 km north of Khar-
toum on the fourth cataract of the Nile. Merowe represents a multi-purpose project, power
generation being the most important of which. Other purposes include flood protection
from high floods of the Main Nile river of the Northern State as well as irrigation for agricul-
tural purposes.
The maximum dam height is 74 m, maximum and minimum operating levels are 300.0 m
and 285 m, respectively. At maximum storage level, the reservoir volume amounts to 13
billion m covering a surface of some 800 km which required the resettlement of more
than 70,000 people. The reservoir operation follows mainly the power generation needs
(see below). Further operation rules comprise of the start of the reservoir drawdown in
March with a minimum reservoir level in August to minimize reservoir sedimentation and
facilitate remobilization of deposits.
The power generating facilities (10 Francis turbines with gross capacities of 125 MW
each) at Merowe dam were commissioned in 2009. They have been producing power
since (1,970 GWh in 2009, 4,952 GWh in 2010 and 5,110 GWh in 2011 and meeting
about two thirds of the annual electric energy demand of Sudan. The turbines are ex-
pected to produce power until well beyond the study period (2031) with the lowest monthly
available capacity of 872 MW in August and average annual energy production of more
than 6,000 GWh (90% firm energy of 5,450 GWh).
The maximum capacity of Merowe ranges between a maximum of 1,250 MW
36
installed
capacity and a minimum of 872 MW occurring during the whole month of August. In con-
trast, the minimum capacity of the plant varies between a minimum of 179 MW again oc-
curring during the month of August and a maximum of 243 MW. Moreover, actual daily
maximum and minimum power production values and corresponding daily ranges are ex-
hibited based on the actual 2011 generation data. Given such characteristics, a regulation
reserve of 550 - 600 MW can be made available to the system.
The plant is the most important generation facility in the system with regard to both the
provision of energy and power. It covers base load throughout the year as well as peak
load providing regulating reserve and other ancillary services. The following chart (Figure
4-21) exemplifies these operational characteristics.
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Figure 4-21: Merowe HPP - daily power production characteristics (2011)
Roseires
The hydropower plant is the fourth largest power plant in Sudan. It is located on the Blue
Nile on the Damazin rapids in the Blue Nile state about 520 km southeast of Khartoum. It
represents a multi-purpose project, of which irrigation being the most important. Other
purposes include flood protection and power generation.
The dam was commissioned in 1966. While the dams and reservoirs lifetime is assumed
to reach beyond the study period rehabilitation needs for the electric equipment is ex-
pected to occur during the study period. The heightening of the Roseires dam (plus 10 m)
is currently under implementation and expected to be finalised in 2012.
The dam height will be 78 m, maximum and minimum operating levels will amount to
493.0 m and about 471.0 m, respectively (including dam heightening). The reservoir vol-
ume at full supply level will amount to 7.4 billion m, covering a surface of 627 km. The
current reservoir operation rules follow mainly the irrigation demand, maximization of en-
ergy generation and reservoir drawdown starting in March to reach a minimum reservoir
level in August/September for sediment sluicing. The power generation facilities consist of
seven Kaplan turbines each providing 40 MW of installed capacity. The plant is assumed
to provide at least 164 MW of available capacity throughout the year, and more than
1,000 GWh of generated energy annually (1,050 GWh 90% firm energy annually). If an
agreement can be reached with the irrigation authorities on dam operation pattern energy
output from the existing turbines could be increased substantially. Depending on the op-
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eration the increase is estimated to be in the range of 130 and 300 GWh (between 10%
and 30% of the current generation). For the study an increase of 200 GWh is assumed.
Due to the heightening of the dam and an improved operation the available capacity is
expected to increase between 0 and 30%, e.g. for August from 164 MW to 214 MW.
Due to its operation according to the irrigation requirements, the generation of Roseires is
not as flexible as Merowe. For instance, during the past three years the generation in the
period June to November the daily load following (the range between daily minimum and
maximum) of Roseires was below 50 MW for most of the days; thus providing mainly base
load. During the remaining time the daily operational range were mainly between 50 and
150 MW; hence providing base load as well as peak load to the system. Figure 4-22 ex-
emplifies this operational plant characteristic for the year 2011. Compared to the same
figure for Merowe above the daily maximum and minimum operation are much closer thus
providing a lower regulating reserve than Merowe, in total as well as percentage of the
plant maximum output.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1
.
1
.
1
1
1
5
.
1
.
1
1
2
9
.
1
.
1
1
1
2
.
2
.
1
1
2
6
.
2
.
1
1
1
2
.
3
.
1
1
2
6
.
3
.
1
1
9
.
4
.
1
1
2
3
.
4
.
1
1
7
.
5
.
1
1
2
1
.
5
.
1
1
4
.
6
.
1
1
1
8
.
6
.
1
1
2
.
7
.
1
1
1
6
.
7
.
1
1
3
0
.
7
.
1
1
1
3
.
8
.
1
1
2
7
.
8
.
1
1
1
0
.
9
.
1
1
2
4
.
9
.
1
1
8
.
1
0
.
1
1
2
2
.
1
0
.
1
1
5
.
1
1
.
1
1
1
9
.
1
1
.
1
1
3
.
1
2
.
1
1
1
7
.
1
2
.
1
1
3
1
.
1
2
.
1
1
[
M
W
]
Actual Maximum
Actual Minimum
Daily range
Figure 4-22: Roseires HPP - daily power production characteristics (2011)
Sennar
The Sennar hydropower is located about 270 km downstream of Roseires Dam in Sennar
state. It represents a multi-purpose project, irrigation being the most important. The other
purpose is power generation.
The dam height is 39 m, maximum and minimum operating levels are 421.7 m and 417.2
m, respectively. The reservoir volume is some 254 million m. The reservoir operation
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260690
follows mainly the irrigation needs. Further operation rules comprise of a minimum reser-
voir level in July to September for sediment sluicing. The dam and power generation facili-
ties were commissioned in 1962. The Sennar upgrading project is supposed to ensure the
continuing operation of the plant from 2015 onwards. Two Kaplan turbines of 7.5 MW ca-
pacity installed each used to be installed. With the installation of new turbines this capaci-
ty is expected to increase to two times 13 MW. Annual energy generation (90% firm ener-
gy) is expected to increase by about 140% from 50 GWh to about 105 GWh annually from
2015 onwards. The lowest monthly available capacity is expected to remain at 7 MW
Sennar is providing relatively constant base load to the system for most of the year, re-
stricted by irrigation needs and available hydro sources.
Jebal Aulia
Jebel Aulia is located on the White Nile, about 40 km upstream of Khartoum. It has been
operating since 2003, deploying 80 matrix turbines of 400 KW gross capacity each which
were installed in the existing dam. Due to the on-going upgrade, the plant is expected to
provide power throughout the study period and beyond with firm annual (90%) energy
supply of about 55 GWh annually.
Similar to Sennar, Jebel Aulia HPP is providing relatively constant base load to the system
for most of the year, restricted by irrigation needs and available hydro sources. Due to the
relatively low head and the restrictions from irrigation, the generation is stopped in the
period May to September. Consequently, the lowest monthly available capacity to the sys-
tem as defined earlier is 0 MW.
Khashem Elgirba
Khashem Elgirba is located on the Atbara River about 50 km west of the Ethiopian border.
The dam was primarily put in place for irrigation, however, hydro power generation repre-
sents an important complementary purpose. The maximum dam height is 50 m, maximum
and minimum operating levels are 474.0 m and 464.0 m, respectively. The active reservoir
volume is 572 million m covering a surface of 116 km. The reservoir operation follows
mainly the irrigation needs. For the sedimentation management, a flushing operation (all
available gates open) for 36 h to 72 h as well as a drawdown to the low operating level at
EL 464.0 m during the flood period is considered in the operation rules.
Two Kaplan turbines of 5 MW gross capacity each have been operating since 1964.
While the dams and reservoirs lifetime is assumed to reach beyond the study period re-
habilitation needs for the electric equipment and as instrumentation and control system
(I&C) is expected to occur during the study period. The plant is providing (90% firm) an-
nual energy of about 67 GWh per year and at minimum 9 MW throughout the year.
Similar to Sennar and Jebel Aulia, Khashem Elgirba is providing relatively constant base
load to the system for most of the year, restricted by irrigation needs and available hydro
sources.
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4.4.2 Committed power plants
A total of 1,836 MW (gross capacity) is committed to be installed between 2012 and 2017,
about the period underlying the medium term (5-year) plan. 1,505 MW or 82% of such
committed gross capacity will be provided by thermal plants and 331 MW or 18% by hy-
dropower sources. The corresponding numbers expressed in terms of available capacity
(net capacity sent out) total 1,716 MW, with 1,385 MW (or 81%) generated from thermal
and 331 MW (19%) generated from hydropower sources. The corresponding numbers
expressed in terms of lowest monthly available capacity (sent out) total 1,665 MW (about
12% below the installed capacity), with 1,385 MW (or 86%) generated from thermal and
280 MW (14%) generated from hydropower sources. Corresponding firm annual energy
available from committed hydro and thermal plants from 2016/2017 onwards amount to
incremental values of 1,125 and 10,577 GWh respectively.
Table 4-8 provides an overview of the committed hydro and thermal power plants in the
country including years of plant commissioning and expected retirement as well as in-
stalled and available capacity parameters, and firm annual energy value projections.
Table 4-9: Committed hydro and thermal power generation facilities
Plant
name
46
Operation Fuel
type
47
Capacity Ener-
gy
Remark
First
year
Last
year
(expec
pec-
ted)
(sec-
ondary
fuel)
In-
stalled
(gross)
Availa-
ble
(net)
high
Available
(net) low
(August)
Firm
annual
MW MW MW GWh
Hydro
Upper
Atbara
2016
beyond
study
period
48 hydro
320 317 225 710 Peaking plant
Roseires
Dam
Heighten-
ing
2012 (280)
280
49
(270)
270
49
(164)
214
49
(1,050)
1,410
49
For irrigation
scheme; no
additional ca-
pacity but ener-
gy
Sennar
Upgrading
2015 (15)
26
50
(12)
25.7
50
(7)
12
50
(50)
105
50
Replaces exist-
ing Sennar units
Sub-total (additionally available) 331 331 280 1,125
46
ST: Steam Turbine
47
AG/NG: Blend of Associated and Natural Gas; GO: Gasoil
48
Lifetime of dams exceed 50 years. Rehabilitation needs (e.g. electric equipment) will be consid-
ered in expansion plan.
49
For Roseires dam heightening the increased capacity and energy generation compared to the
old plant is provided. The total capacity of the HPP before the upgrading are provided in brackets.
The hydro subtotals include the added capacity and added energy only (over and above the figures
for the existing system)
50
For Sennar Upgrading the increased capacity and energy generation compared to the old plant
is provided. The total capacity of the Sennar HPP before the upgrading are provided in brackets.
The hydro subtotals include the added capacity and added energy only (over and above the figures
for the existing system)
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Plant
name
46
Operation Fuel
type
47
Capacity Ener-
gy
Remark
First
year
Last
year
(expec
pec-
ted)
(sec-
ondary
fuel)
In-
stalled
(gross)
Availa-
ble
(net)
high
Available
(net) low
(August)
Firm
annual
MW MW MW GWh
Thermal
Red Sea
ST
2017 2043 Coal 600 534 534 4,079
Al Fula ST 2016 2046 AG/NG
(Crude)
405 381 381 2,908 Gas sources not
secured yet
Kosti ST 2013/
2014
2043 Crude
(HFO)
500 470 470 3,590 Fuel supply uncer-
tain
Sub-total 1,505 1,385 1,385 10,577
Total 1,836 1,716 1,665 11,702
The main characteristics of each plant are described below. Further plant parameters and
characteristics such as planned and forced outage rates, auxiliary power demand, spin-
ning reserve, and costs will be included in Annex 4.
Details on the Roseires Dam Heightening Project and the Sennar Upgrading Project are
described in the earlier section on existing hydro capacities (Section 4.4.1).
Red Sea power plant
A new coal fired steam turbine plant is committed to be installed on the Red Sea at Port
Sudan with two steam units of 300 MW gross capacity (267 MW maximum available ca-
pacity) each. The site has been selected to minimise transportation cost of coal, which
has to be shipped into Sudan. The foreseen origin of the coal is South Africa. The units
are expected to be commissioned in 2017. They will be operated as base load plants and
will produce up to 4,079 GWh firm annual energy.
Al Fula power plant
The Al Fula steam power plant is located 260 kilometres south-west of El Obeid in North
Kordofan. It comprises of three steam turbines of 135 MW gross capacity (127 MW net
capacity) each and is expected to provide an amount of firm annual energy of 2,908 GWh
per year. Initially the plant was designed to run on crude oil only. Due to the decline of
available crude in Sudan the design was changed to dual fuel operation. A blend of asso-
ciated and natural gas piped from Neem oild fields will provide the main fuel. Backup fuel
is crude. There is no final information whether sufficient sources of gas are available for
the installed capacity and the plants lifetime. After various delays during the planning and
construction, the plant is assumed to be commissioned in 2016. However, some uncer-
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tainty for the actual commissioning date of the plant has to be considered in the expansion
planning.
Kosti power plant
The Kosti Steam Power Project is located in the town of Kosti, 270 kilometres south of
Khartoum on the banks of the White Nile. The main reason for the selection of this site
was the recently commissioned oil pipeline running from the Melut Basin in South Sudan
to Port Sudan. Four crude oil fired steam units of 125 MW gross capacity (118 MW maxi-
mum available capacity) each are in the process of being installed. Commissioning is ex-
pected to take place between 2013 and 2015, with the assumption that two turbines will
be installed in summer 2013 and all four turbines available in summer 2014. Due to vari-
ous delays during the planning and construction phase some uncertainty for the actual
commissioning date of the plant has to be considered in the expansion planning. The
plant will be assumed to provide 3,590 GWh of firm energy annually. The fuel supply from
South Sudan is not secured. Due to this and a general decline of available crude in Sudan
the fuel supply of the Kosti plant was under investigation during the time of this study. One
possible option is the supply of domestically refined HFO currently used at Khartoum
North power plant (which in turn would use imported HFO instead). Another option is the
connection to an alternative pipeline carrying crude from Sudan or a settlement with South
Sudan with regard to the crude supply. This option will be considered in the expansion
planning.
Upper Atbara power plant
The Upper Atbara hydro power plant (Dam Complex of Upper Atbara Project) is situated
on the Atbara River and the Setit River, approximately 20 km upstream of their conflu-
ence, 80 km south of Kashm Elgirba, located in the Gedaref Governorate in East of Sudan
and is expected to be commissioned in 2016. The Dam Complex of Upper Atbara Project
encompasses the Rumela Project (Upper Atbara River), and the Burdana Project (Setit
River). The combined embankments of both projects will impound both rivers.
The dam heights are 55 m (Rumela) and 50 m (Burdana), maximum and minimum operat-
ing levels are 521.0 m and 509.0 m respectively. The total reservoir volume is 3,688 mil-
lion m, covering a surface of 103 km.
Releases to the downstream are defined by the demand of the New Halfa irrigation
scheme and the losses at the Khashm Elgirba reservoir. Reservoir level drawdown will
start by beginning of January such that the low operating level is reached latest by the end
of June to minimize reservoir sedimentation. Rumela power station will have four Kaplan
units installed of 80 MW gross capacity each. The plant is designed to provide peaking
power at full capacity (80 MW each). Firm annual energy of 710 GWh are expected from
the plant annually.
As a peaking plant with an maximum available capacity (net) of 317 MW (225 MW availa-
ble capacity at its lowest) but an average capacity of 54 MW it will be capable of providing
regulating power to the grid (taking into account downstream irrigation demand), though at
a far distance from the main load centres.
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4.4.3 Summary generation characteristics and implications for expan-
sion planning
Generation characteristics
Due to the low operating costs, hydropower has a large share of the power generation in
Sudan. This includes the supply of electric energy and power as well as the provision of
base, intermediate and peak load.
Base load is currently provided mainly by hydro power plants, i.e. Merowe, Roseires and
three small HPP, and to a lesser extent by thermal generation based on steam units at
Khartoum North and Garri.
Intermediate and peak load is predominantly provided by hydro power, i.e. Merowe and to
a smaller extent Roseires, depending on the season and the requirements of irrigation
demand. During the dry season when the hydro sources are at their lowest, thermal gen-
eration contribute a tiny share to intermediate and peak load. This derives from the flexible
but also more costly CCGT based generation at Garri and GT based generation in Khar-
toum North. Since this capacity is currently underutilised, this contribution can be further
expanded in future, though at high costs.
Most of the HPP are several hundred kilometres away from the main load centres in the
Greater Khartoum area while most TPP are located in or close to this area. With the dom-
inance of HPP their energy, load and ancillary services have to be transmitted for long
distances. The resulting challenges for the power supply and the operation of the trans-
mission network are dealt with in the electrical network analysis within this study.
Energy supply characteristics
The power generation in Sudan strongly depends on the supply characteristics of the un-
derlying energy sources.
For hydro energy, there is a strong seasonal fluctuation of available discharge and head.
The periods of low hydro sources in terms of head in the reservoir coincide with the peri-
ods of high demand for electric energy and power. Further constraints restrict the opera-
tion of HPP. These are competing utilisation of hydro sources, in particular the irrigation
needs as well as technical restriction such as the passing through of the high water wave
to avoid reservoir sedimentation. These restrict the utilisation of HPP for instance in terms
of storing energy and providing regulating power to the grid. In addition, there are inter-
annual fluctuations of hydro sources. Hence, part of the hydropower generation capacity
has to be backed up with fossil fuel based generation. In addition, a close coordination
with competing users of the hydro facilities is necessary.
Fossil-fuelled thermal generation is necessary for the above-mentioned back-up as well
as for providing stability to the electrical network. However, the associated generation
costs are comparatively high, except for the sponge coke based generation of Garri 4. In
addition, for most fuels the supply is not secured and restricted by logistical and economic
constraints.
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The committed power plants will on the one hand increase the share of fossil fuel
51
in the
overall generation mix. On the other hand, the Upper Atbara HPP, a peaking plant, will be
capable of providing a considerable amount of regulating power to the system, though at a
far distance from the load centres.
The energy supply for power generation will be elaborated in detail in Work Package IV:
Evaluation of Energy Sources.
Future supply of capacity and energy
The following Figure 4-23 exhibits the development of available capacities at its lowest
level in August provided by existing as well as committed power plants for the study peri-
od 2012 until 2031.
For the projection of capacities, the above quoted values for 2012 for the existing plants
and for the committed plants for their respective first year of operation are kept constant
for the period 2012 until 2031, unless scheduled decommissioning happens to occur ear-
lier. The following existing plants are assumed to be phased out before 2031:
Sennar will be replaced by Sennar Upgrading in 2015 with no effect on the mini-
mum firm capacity
Khartoum North Unit 1 ST HCGO will be down to zero in 2016 from 1 x 28 MW
firm capacity in 2015
Khartoum North Unit 2 ST HCGO was taken out of operation at the end of 2010
Khartoum North GT Gasoil will be down to 17 MW firm capacity in 2016 from 34
MW in 2015 and down to zero in 2029
Garri-1, Garri-2, Garri-4 will be down to zero in 2029 each from 170MW, 170MW,
95MW firm capacities.
If the committed plants are realized as scheduled the average available energy will nearly
double within the next five years from around 13,000 GWh in 2012 to nearly 24,000 GWh
in 2017 which is nearly three times the energy generation in 2011. However, the uncer-
tainties with regard to the time schedule and fuel supply has to be kept in mind in the ex-
pansion planning process.
51
For the committed plants of Kosti (crude) and Al Fula (gas / crude) the fuel is potentially expen-
sive and not secured, Port Sudan (coal) provides a less expensive and more reliable fuel supply.
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
[
M
W
]
Kosti ST Crude committed
Al Fula ST Gas Blend (Neem) committed
Red Sea ST Coal committed
Sennar Upgrading HP Hydro committed
Upper Atbara HP Hydro committed
Roseires dam height. HP Hydro committed
Peak load (annual, sent-out)
Figure 4-23: Development of available capacities (low) between 2012 and 2031
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4.5 Losses
This section details the historic development of technical and non-technical losses in the
national power grid of Sudan as well as expected future development and targets.
4.5.1 Technical losses transmission
Due to the commissioning of new technical equipment, accurate measurements of the
losses in the transmission grid are possible since January 2011. Reliable figures on loss-
es before that date do not exist. The monthly balances of energy fed into the transmission
grid and energy sold to the distribution grid accounted for an average of 5.1% with an in-
dication for a decrease during the first month of 2012 (4.2%). The transmission company
plans to further reduce the losses down to 3.6% in 2016. Associated transmission losses
of 5% are considered reasonable for a power grid as in Sudan for the entire study period.
A further reduction is possible but would require higher investments in particular to bal-
ance the higher losses of the large distances transmission lines which are planned.
4.5.2 Technical losses distribution
Technical losses in the distribution grid were 17.5% in 2010 and fell to 13.4% in 2011. The
distribution company plans to further reduce the losses down to 12% in 2016 based on an
on-going 5-year energy efficiency program. There is no plan and respective budget alloca-
tion for the time beyond 2016. For this study, it is considered reasonable that the losses
will reduce to 12% in 2016 and will stay constant until 2031. This is a conservative as-
sumption to account for the envisaged expansion of the distribution grid into less densely
populated areas with longer line lengths causing higher losses.
4.5.3 Non-technical losses
Sudan is outstanding in the utilization of pre-paid meters introduced some years back.
Nowadays, the penetration of pre-paid meters is more than 90% of all customers. This
results in very low non-technical losses that would otherwise occur through energy theft or
defaulted payments.
Hence, non-technical losses are assumed negligible. If existent, they are included by defi-
nition in the technical losses of the distribution grid (see section 4.5.2).
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5 Assumptions and scenario definition
This section summarizes the findings of the analysis of the frame conditions described in
sections 3 and 4. It further summarizes the lessons learnt from former forecasts.
5.1 Previous analyses and forecasts
The previous Power System Planning Study was prepared by PB Power for the study pe-
riod 2006 to 2030. Its assumptions, approach and results are outdated or have proven to
be not suitable. Their benefit for the present study is, therefore, limited but can provide
some lessons learnt which are summarized in this section.
While various technical assumptions e.g. on the generation capacity remain valid, the
general frame condition for the country itself with the split of Sudan, the related split of
available resources in particular crude oil have changed. The forecast scenarios for the
development of demand for energy and peak demand showed strong deviations from the
actual demand growth in the past years indicating that the assumptions and approach
taken were not suitable or outdated.
Various plans for new power consuming projects (e.g. for industrial and agricultural
schemes) as well as new projects in the power system and their implementation schedule
were taken as assured and included as such in the demand forecast. Delays of these pro-
jects caused for instance by constraints of finance resulted in much lower demand growth
than predicted. Hence, a more cautious approach on accounting any plans for future pow-
er consuming or power system projects is recommended. Likewise, the very high electrifi-
cation rates assumed in the previous study were not matched by the capacities for the
extension of the power system on the ground.
The demand forecast of this study relies to a lesser extent on plans as an input but focus-
es on the analysis of the historic development of the power system. This data contains the
realisation of (new) projects in the past, which is assumed to be similar in the near future.
5.2 Assumptions and driving factors for demand
The actual demand for energy is the result of many factors comprising economic, tech-
nical, demographic and political factors. In order to prepare a plausible demand forecast it
is neither possible nor reasonable to model all interrelations between these factors.
For this study, the frame conditions with the strongest effect on the demand were identi-
fied and analysed. The results are summarized in the previous chapters. These driving
factors provide the frame for defining the assumptions for each demand scenario.
For Sudan these driving factors for demand are:
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1. The economic development of the country: this is the most prominent factor since it
provides in the long-term the income on state level to finance the expansion of the
power system and on consumer level to expand and pay for the use of electricity
among existing and new customers. This issue is described in sections 3.4 and 4.2.1.
2. Policies and development plans for industrial, commercial and agricultural pro-
jects: these projects for economic development might boost the electricity demand in
particular sectors and regions, beyond the usual development. These projects are not
directly considered in this study because of the high uncertainty whether and when
these projects and policies will be realized. However, they are indirectly covered by
different assumptions on connection rates for the different scenarios.
3. The capacity of the power sector to implement the power system projects, i.e.
the kind of projects, their volume and implementation time in the past. This includes for
instance
a. The development of transmission projects so that currently not connected
areas and their population can be served, i.e. how many kilometres of over-
head lines will be implemented in what time. This issue is determined by the
capacity of the responsible institutions and the financial resources. It is de-
scribed in section 4.3. For each forecast scenario average transmission ex-
pansion capacities were assumed. They are understood as the long-term av-
erage expansion in kilometre per year of the different transmission paths (e.g.
towards Darfur or Port Sudan). They are based on the experience with projects
in the past and include not only the average construction duration but also any
delay in the overall planning process. For each locality currently not connected
to the national grid the distance to the existing transmission network was esti-
mated so that for each scenario the number of years could be estimated until
the electrification of the locality.
b. The development of distribution projects to connect new customers to the
existing transmission system and the extension of the transmission grid men-
tioned in the previous bullet point. This issue is described in sections 4.2.1 and
4.2. The expansion of the distribution network includes the contribution of cus-
tomers to the expenses. This will be considered in the investment plan.
4. The financial resources to realize power system projects, e.g. power plants, the ex-
tension of the transmission and distribution grids. This issue is influenced by the
above-mentioned economic development and has a strong impact that the extension
of the power grid will be realized.
5. The consumption patterns of the connected consumers: this indicates daily, sea-
sonal and regional consumption typical for Sudan, which can be used to estimate the
future development of the connected consumers and the probable consumption pat-
terns of any new consumers. This issue is described in section 4.2.
The future served demand also depends on the available capacity and energy. This
means that the supply side whether and what kind of power generation is available - can
be also seen as a driving factor for demand. However, the approach chosen for this fore-
cast aims at identifying future power generation needs so that all demand (restricted by
the above issues) can be met. The approach therefore assumes sufficient supply of pow-
er.
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5.3 Definition of forecast scenarios
This section contains the assumptions for three demand forecast scenarios structured by
the driving factors for demand detailed above and the frame conditions analysed in the
previous sections.
Table 5-1: Definition of demand forecast scenarios
Scenario
Topic
Brief
description
Based on assumptions
established by the Consult-
ant for a probable develop-
ment based on the historic
development.
Based on the arithmetic
average of the other two
scenarios and their as-
sumptions; considering that
the electrification target of
80% will be largely met by
grid-connected electrifica-
tion supplemented by off
areas.
Based on electrification
targets of 80% to be
reached through grid-
connected electrification
only and providing assump-
tions (e.g. expansion capac-
ities) to be fulfilled to reach
these targets, assuming on
average higher available
expansion capacities than in
the past.
Metho-
dology
The forecast was based on the projection of historic data under consideration of projects
on the locality and state level, i.e. combining trend projection and bottom-up approach
(further information in section 2.3).
Demo-
graphy
Population distribution and growth as provided by CBS (Census 2008 and forecast; data
and further information in section 3.3, Annex 2 and Annex 5)
Geography,
administra-
tive area
Structured along previous administrative structure of 15 states,
all areas currently claimed by the GoS included
(for further information see section 3.1 and 3.2)
Economy The demand forecast was solely based on historic developments and did not consider any
GDP forecast since no reliable data was available (further information in section 3.4).
Power
generation
Sufficient power generation capacity assumed
Trans-
mission
extension
mitted projects
mitted projects
mitted projects
Sufficient capacity of transmission lines to transmit all future power
(further information on the transmission system in section 4.3; estimated distances for
transmission line projects/path by locality Annex 5)
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Scenario
Topic
Distribution
extension
tions per year similar to
historic average 2009 -
2011 (about 220,000 new
connections of which
similar to connections of
new areas in the past for
domestic connections and
connection characteristics of
the state for other customer
types.
tions per year to reach
electrification target of be-
tween moderate and high
scenario (about 270,000
new connections of which
between moderate and high
scenario.
tions per year to reach elec-
trification target of 80%
(about 320,000 new con-
nections of which about
270,000 domestic - per year
for all Sudan).
double of moderate scenar-
io.
For years where the urban share of the population in the state exceeds the electrification
ratio a higher connection rate is assumed (+10%) to simulate the higher potential for elec-
trification in these states (further information in section 4.2.1 and 4.2.4)
Electrifi-
cation
ratio
(electrification ratio through
grid connected electrifica-
tion; supplemented by off
areas to meet at least 50%
electrification ratio on state
level, see section 2.3.3)
(Arithmetic average of other
scenarios; electrification
target of 80% will be largely
met by grid connected elec-
trification (average of mod-
erate and high scenario)
supplemented by off grid
electrification in rural areas
to meet at least 60% electri-
fication ratio on state level, ,
see section 2.3.3)
80% electrification ratio in
2031 through grid connec-
tion only as main input for
demand forecast (supple-
mented by off grid electrifi-
cation in rural areas to meet
at least 70% electrification
ratio on state level, , see
section 2.3.3)
Financing &
capacity of
power
sector
Restrictions of capacity and financial resources according to the historic transmission and
distribution extension capacity,
Electricity
consump-
tion / ability
and willing-
ness to pay
Specific consumption and its increase according to historic average on state level assum-
ing that electricity prices, i.e. willingness and ability to pay based on tariffs and income
remain in the historic range and consumption increases of connected consumers will be
levelled by (lower) consumption of new consumers
(further information in section 4.2.1 and 4.2.6)
New pro-
jects
New projects included in assumptions on new connections and specific consumption; shift
of captive power to grid power limited to 150 MW in Port Sudan and 65 MW in Atba-
ra/River Nile
(further information in section 4.2.1).
Losses Transmission losses 5%, distribution losses 12% (2016 onwards)
(further information in section 1.1)
Load factor 63% for most of the study period with a decline to 61% in 2018 to model the coincidence of
high peak demand caused by high temperature and by Ramadan
(further information in section 4.2.3)
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6 Demand forecast
This section provides the forecasted energy and power for the three scenarios.
6.1 Moderate scenario
For the moderate scenario, demand for energy and peak load are forecasted to grow by
an average annual rate of 10.9% for the period until 2021, 4.5% for the period 2021 to
2031 and 7.7% for the whole study period. On average 250 MW of load and 1,400 GWh of
energy consumption at generation sent-out level is added every year. Energy generation
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
[
G
W
h
/
y
e
a
r
]
Generation (sent-out)
Consumption (billed)
Figure 6-1: Energy generation and consumption moderate scenario (2006 - 2031)
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
A
n
n
u
a
l
G
r
o
w
t
h
[
%
]
P
e
a
k
L
o
a
d
[
M
W
]
Peak load (sent-
out) MW
Annual growth
Figure 6-2: Peak load and annual growth moderate scenario (2006 - 2031)
The forecasted consumption by sector is shown in the figures below. The main change
compared to the historic development is the increase of industrial consumption due to the
expected connection of existing consumers with current self-supply in Port Sudan and
Atbara/River Nile. Without this effect, the development of the shares of the other customer
groups would be within the historic range with a continued increase of the share of com-
mercial and agricultural consumption and a decrease of governmental and domestic con-
sumption.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
[
G
W
h
/
y
e
a
r
]
Agricultural
Governmental
Industrial
Commercial
Domestic
Figure 6-3: Energy consumption by customer group moderate scenario (2006 -
2031)
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
[
S
h
a
r
e
o
f
t
o
t
a
l
c
o
n
s
u
m
p
t
i
o
n
]
Agricultural
Governmental
Industrial
Commercial
Domestic
Figure 6-4: Energy consumption - percentage share by customer group moderate
scenario (2006 - 2031)
The electrification ratio is forecasted to grow by nearly two percentage points per year. It
will reach 62% in 2031. This forecasted electrification ratio relates to the electrification of
households connected to the national grid or large isolated grids. The overall electrifica-
tion ratio will be higher if measures for rural electrification, e.g. micro-grids or solar home
systems, are taken into account. Based on the electrification targets on state level to
reach an electrification ratio of at least 50% and 80% on national level this would sum up
to additional 18%, resulting in a total electrification ratio of 80% if the targets are reached.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2009 2014 2019 2024 2029
Electrification ratio off grid (rural) - target %
Electrification ratio (grid connected) %
States connected %
Localities connected %
Figure 6-5: Electrification ratio (grid connected and off grid) and share of states and
localities connected to the national grid moderate scenario (2009-2031)
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By 2031, all states and localities are forecasted to be connected to the grid (see figure
above), though the electrical network will not reach the entire area of all localities and their
population as the lower electrification ratio shows.
The table below provides the electrification ratios on state level and for all Sudan for the
period 2012 to 2031. This includes the contribution of grid connected electrification
52
as
well as the off grid electrification targets to reach the overall electrification ratio on state
level.
moderate scenario
State 2009 2011 2012 2016 2021 2026 2031
North State 52% 76% 78% 81% 83% 84% 86%
grid connected 52% 76% 78% 81% 83% 84% 86%
off grid (rural) - target not necessary
River Nile 40% 56% 59% 73% 82% 89% 95%
grid connected 40% 56% 59% 73% 82% 89% 95%
Red Sea 11% 18% 22% 39% 57% 72% 87%
grid connected 11% 18% 22% 39% 57% 72% 87%
Kassala 13% 14% 17% 31% 42% 51% 60%
grid connected 13% 14% 15% 24% 27% 28% 29%
off grid (rural) - target 2% 8% 15% 23% 30%
Al Gadarif 9% 16% 22% 38% 48% 55% 60%
grid connected 9% 16% 21% 38% 46% 52% 56%
Khartoum 58% 67% 73% 92% 97% 97% 98%
grid connected 58% 67% 73% 92% 97% 97% 98%
Al Gezira 25% 37% 42% 57% 71% 82% 90%
grid connected 25% 37% 42% 57% 71% 82% 90%
White Nile 10% 16% 18% 30% 41% 51% 60%
grid connected 10% 16% 17% 23% 27% 29% 31%
52
Customers in the existing eight large isolated grids are considered grid connected.
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State 2009 2011 2012 2016 2021 2026 2031
Sinnar 19% 28% 30% 37% 46% 53% 60%
grid connected 19% 28% 29% 33% 36% 39% 41%
Blue Nile 6% 8% 11% 26% 40% 50% 60%
grid connected 6% 8% 10% 20% 27% 31% 34%
North Kordufan 4% 6% 8% 21% 37% 49% 60%
grid connected 4% 6% 7% 15% 25% 31% 36%
South Kordufan 1% 1% 3% 24% 38% 49% 60%
grid connected 1% 1% 1% 12% 15% 14% 13%
North Darfur 3% 4% 6% 15% 29% 47% 60%
grid connected 3% 4% 4% 6% 11% 20% 24%
West Darfur 1% 2% 4% 14% 29% 48% 60%
grid connected 1% 2% 2% 4% 8% 17% 18%
South Darfur 2% 2% 5% 15% 33% 49% 60%
grid connected 2% 2% 2% 4% 10% 14% 14%
Sudan 2012 - 2021 21% 28% 32% 48% 61% 72% 80%
grid connected 21% 28% 31% 43% 52% 58% 62%
6.2 Base scenario
For the base scenario, demand for energy and peak load are forecasted to grow by an
average annual rate of 12.5% for the period until 2021, 4.5% for the period 2021 to 2031
and 8.4% for the whole study period. On average 280 MW of load and 1,600 GWh of en-
ergy consumption at generation sent-out level is added every year Energy generation
With regard to electrification, the base scenario is ambitious since the envisaged electrifi-
cation target exceeds the urban share of population from 2013 onwards, e.g. 71% electri-
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fication ratio in 2031 compared to forecasted 55% urban population. To achieve this elec-
trification ratio the implementation of the envisaged projects for transmission and distribu-
tion have to be in the range as scheduled in the scenarios assumptions.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
[
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]
Figure 6-6: Energy generation and consumption base scenario (2006 - 2031)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
A
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%
]
P
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[
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]
Peak load (sent-
out) MW
Annual growth
Figure 6-7: Peak load base scenario (2006 - 2031)
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Atbara/River Nile. Without this effect, the development of the shares of the other customer
groups would be within the historic range with a continued increase of the share of com-
mercial and agricultural consumption and a decrease of governmental and domestic con-
sumption.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
[
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Agricultural
Governmental
Industrial
Commercial
Domestic
Figure 6-8: Energy consumption by customer group base scenario (2006 - 2031)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
[
S
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]
Agricultural
Governmental
Industrial
Commercial
Domestic
Figure 6-9: Energy consumption percentage share by customer group base
scenario (2006 - 2031)
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The electrification ratio is forecasted to grow by an average of two percentage points per
year. It will reach 71% in 2031. This forecasted electrification ratio relates to the electrifi-
cation of households connected to the national grid or large isolated grids. The overall
electrification ratio will be higher if measures for rural electrification, e.g. micro-grids or
solar home systems, are taken into account. Based on the electrification targets on state
level to reach an electrification ratio of at least 60% this would sum up to additional 13%,
resulting in a total electrification ratio of 84% if the targets are reached.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2009 2014 2019 2024 2029
States connected %
and localities connected to the national grid base scenario (2009 -
2031)
By 2031, all states and localities are forecasted to be connected to the grid (see figure
below), though the electrical network will not reach the entire area of all localities and their
population as the lower electrification ratio shows.
The table below provides the electrification ratios on state level and for all Sudan for the
period 2012 to 2031. This includes the contribution of grid connected electrification as well
as the off grid electrification targets to reach the overall electrification ratio on state level.
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base scenario
State 2009 2011 2012 2016 2021 2026 2031
North State 52% 76% 79% 88% 94% 98% 98%
grid connected 52% 76% 79% 88% 94% 98% 98%
River Nile 40% 56% 60% 85% 98% 98% 98%
grid connected 40% 56% 60% 85% 98% 98% 98%
Red Sea 11% 18% 24% 48% 72% 95% 99%
grid connected 11% 18% 24% 48% 72% 95% 99%
Kassala 13% 14% 17% 37% 46% 53% 60%
grid connected 13% 14% 16% 32% 35% 37% 38%
Al Gadarif 9% 16% 25% 50% 62% 70% 76%
grid connected 9% 16% 25% 50% 62% 70% 76%
Khartoum 58% 67% 77% 96% 97% 97% 98%
grid connected 58% 67% 77% 96% 97% 97% 98%
Al Gezira 25% 37% 45% 68% 89% 98% 98%
grid connected 25% 37% 45% 68% 89% 98% 98%
White Nile 10% 16% 19% 34% 44% 52% 60%
grid connected 10% 16% 18% 29% 35% 38% 41%
Sinnar 19% 28% 30% 39% 47% 54% 60%
grid connected 19% 28% 30% 37% 43% 48% 51%
Blue Nile 6% 8% 12% 33% 44% 52% 60%
grid connected 6% 8% 11% 29% 36% 41% 45%
North Kordufan 4% 6% 8% 24% 41% 51% 60%
grid connected 4% 6% 8% 21% 36% 43% 49%
South Kordufan 1% 1% 3% 32% 46% 53% 60%
grid connected 1% 1% 1% 23% 27% 25% 23%
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State 2009 2011 2012 2016 2021 2026 2031
North Darfur 3% 4% 5% 13% 34% 53% 60%
grid connected 3% 4% 4% 7% 23% 35% 37%
West Darfur 1% 2% 4% 13% 36% 53% 60%
grid connected 1% 2% 2% 5% 20% 29% 28%
South Darfur 2% 2% 4% 18% 44% 52% 60%
grid connected 2% 2% 3% 8% 25% 23% 22%
Sudan 2012 - 2021 21% 28% 34% 54% 70% 79% 84%
grid connected 21% 28% 33% 51% 64% 69% 71%
6.3 High scenario
For the high scenario, demand for energy and peak load are forecasted to grow by an
average annual rate of 14% for the period until 2021, 4.3% for the period 2021 to 2031
and 9% for the whole study period. On average 330 MW of load and 1,800 GWh of energy
consumption at generation sent-out level is added every year. Energy generation (sent-
out), energy consumption (billed) and peak load will reach 46,000 GWh, 39,000 GWh and
8,400 MW in 2031, respectively. For this scenario, some 2.4 million
53
of new connections,
90% domestic, would be necessary until 2016, i.e. the overall connections would have to
more than double within five years which is nearly impossible given the current capacity of
the organisations involved. Detailed results of the demand forecast by sector and year
provided in Annex 6.
The high scenario is considered very ambitious even technically nearly impossible due to
the targeted high share of grid-connected electrification. It exceeds the urban share of
population from 2013 onwards, e.g. 80% electrification ratio in 2031 compared to fore-
casted 55% urban population. This means that compared to the other scenarios an in-
creasingly higher share of rural areas have to be electrified with electrical networks. This
will cause technical and financial challenges and might not be the most economical ap-
proach for the electrification.
53
This is in the range of the medium term plan of SEDCo if an average load of 50% for the planned
transformers is assumed.
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
[
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]
Figure 6-11: Energy generation and consumption high scenario (2006 - 2031)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
A
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[
%
]
P
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L
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[
M
W
]
Peak load (sent-
out) MW
Annual growth
Figure 6-12: Peak load high scenario (2006 - 2031)
Atbara/River Nile. The share of domestic consumption is forecasted to decrease, the
share of commercial and agricultural consumption is forecasted to increase.
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
[
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]
Agricultural
Governmental
Industrial
Commercial
Domestic
Figure 6-13: Energy consumption by customer group high scenario (2006 - 2031)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
[
S
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]
Agricultural
Governmental
Industrial
Commercial
Domestic
Figure 6-14: Energy consumption - percentage share by customer group high
scenario (2006 - 2031)
The electrification ratio is forecasted to grow by an average of six percentage points per
year during the first five years. It is forecasted to decrease when most states are connect-
ed and electrification will be more difficult to achieve. The electrification ratio is expected
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to grow by less than half percentage point towards the end of the period and will reach
80% in 2031, the envisaged electrification target. The overall electrification ratio will be
higher if measures for rural electrification, e.g. micro-grids or solar home systems, are
taken into account. Based on the electrification targets on state level to reach an electrifi-
cation ratio of at least 70% this would sum up to additional 12%, resulting in a total electri-
fication ratio of 92% if the targets are reached.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2009 2014 2019 2024 2029
States connected %
Figure 6-15: Electrification ratio and share of states and localities connected to the
national grid high scenario (2009 - 2031)
If the required transmission line projects for the high scenario are implemented as sched-
uled in the assumptions all states will be connected by 2016, one year earlier than in the
base scenario and two years earlier than for the moderate scenario. All localities are fore-
casted to be connected to the grid by 2020, though the electrical network will not reach
the entire area of all localities and their population as the lower electrification ratio shows.
The table below provides the electrification ratios on state and national level for the whole
study period. This includes the contribution of grid connected electrification as well as the
off grid electrification targets to reach the overall electrification ratio on state level.
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Table 6-3: Electrification ratios on state level (2009 to 2021) and national level (2009
2031) high scenario
State 2009 2011 2012 2016 2021 2026 2031
North State 52% 76% 81% 96% 98% 98% 98%
grid connected 52% 76% 81% 96% 98% 98% 98%
River Nile 40% 56% 62% 97% 98% 98% 98%
grid connected 40% 56% 62% 97% 98% 98% 98%
Red Sea 11% 18% 26% 58% 89% 99% 99%
grid connected 11% 18% 26% 58% 89% 99% 99%
Kassala 13% 14% 17% 47% 56% 63% 70%
grid connected 13% 14% 16% 42% 46% 48% 50%
Al Gadarif 9% 16% 29% 65% 80% 91% 97%
grid connected 9% 16% 29% 65% 80% 91% 97%
Khartoum 58% 67% 80% 96% 97% 97% 98%
grid connected 58% 67% 80% 96% 97% 97% 98%
Al Gezira 25% 37% 49% 80% 97% 98% 98%
grid connected 25% 37% 49% 80% 97% 98% 98%
White Nile 10% 16% 20% 41% 52% 62% 70%
grid connected 10% 16% 19% 36% 42% 46% 50%
Sinnar 19% 28% 31% 43% 54% 63% 70%
grid connected 19% 28% 31% 41% 50% 56% 61%
Blue Nile 6% 8% 12% 41% 54% 63% 70%
grid connected 6% 8% 11% 38% 49% 54% 59%
North Kordufan 4% 6% 8% 31% 51% 61% 70%
grid connected 4% 6% 8% 30% 49% 57% 65%
South Kordufan 1% 1% 3% 47% 61% 65% 70%
grid connected 1% 1% 1% 39% 44% 40% 37%
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State 2009 2011 2012 2016 2021 2026 2031
North Darfur 3% 4% 5% 14% 55% 64% 70%
grid connected 3% 4% 4% 10% 47% 52% 54%
West Darfur 1% 2% 4% 17% 58% 64% 70%
grid connected 1% 2% 3% 9% 43% 42% 41%
South Darfur 2% 2% 4% 21% 56% 63% 70%
grid connected 2% 2% 3% 11% 38% 36% 34%
Sudan 2012 - 2021 21% 28% 35% 62% 81% 87% 92%
grid connected 21% 28% 35% 59% 75% 78% 80%
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7 Demand supply balancing
This section compares the forecasted peak load and energy demand with the expected
available capacity and firm energy in order to determine when supply gaps are going to
occur during the study period and how much capacity is needed to fill these gaps:
Annual: balancing of peak load and capacity based on annual peak load and month with
the lowest available capacity
Figure 7-1
54
below compares on an annual basis - the development of peak demand
with the available capacity throughout the study period represented by the month with the
lowest available capacity, i.e. August. The dotted lines indicate for each scenario the re-
quired capacities including a reserve margin
55
of two times the largest unit in the system.
If compared on an annual basis for the most critical month (i.e. August) the existing and
committed capacity will not be sufficient to meet the forecasted peak demand for any sce-
nario if the reserve margin requirements are considered (even if the committed power
plants are commissioned as scheduled).
However, for the moderate scenario (green continuous and dotted lines) the existing and
committed capacity nearly cover the forecasted demand and reserve margin.
The supply gap between 2012 and 2016 is in a range of 15 to 330 MW for the moderate
scenario, 154 to 580 MW for the base scenario (blue continuous and dotted lines) and 254
to 880 MW for the high scenario (yellow continuous and dotted lines).
If no reserve margin is considered, the available capacity will be able to meet the fore-
casted demand for the moderate and base scenarios until 2018 and 2016, respectively,
with a supply gap for the base scenario in 2015. For the high demand scenario, there is
not sufficient capacity to provide secure supply to the forecasted demand from 2012 on-
wards.
54
Detailed data on an annual and monthly basis are provided in Annex 6
55
The regulatory authority in Sudan set the required reserve margin - for planning purposes - at
15%, as documented in the Grid Code. It does not specify the split into cold and spinning reserve.
Accordingly, for this study the total required reserve is set at 15% of peak load. Based on the cur-
rent operation of Merowe HPP and based on the consultants recommendation a spinning reserve
as part of this reserve margin is foreseen as follows: N-1 criterion (about 125 MW - one unit Mer-
owe / Al Fula until 2016 and about 270 MW one unit Port Sudan 2017 onwards) but minimum
150 MW as presently operated. For the cold reserve the balance of reserve margin and spinning
reserve the consultant recommends to consider also the N-1 criterion in order to avoid an over-
sized and hence costly reserve margin in the long term. In the medium term the 15% reserve mar-
gin criterion and the N-1 criterion will not deviate much.
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0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
[
M
W
]
Kosti ST Crude committed
Al Fula ST Gas Blend (Neem) committed
Red Sea ST Coal committed
Sennar Upgrading HP Hydro committed
Upper Atbara HP Hydro committed
Roseires dam height. HP Hydro committed
Moderate scenario
Peak load (annual, sent-out) historic
Base scenario
High scenario
Base scenario + reserve margin, MW
High scenario + reserve margin, MW
Moderate scenario + reserve margin, MW
Figure 7-1: Balancing of demand and supply of peak load (MW) for moderate, base and high scenario (2006 to 2031)
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Monthly: balancing of peak load and capacity, based on monthly peak load and monthly available capacity
The comparison of peak load and available capacity on a monthly basis is provided in Figure 7-2 (for the entire study period 2012 2031) and
Figure 7-3 ((for the period 2012 2020): the development of monthly peak demand with the available capacity (varying with hydrological condi-
tions) throughout the study period
56
. Again, the dotted lines indicate for each scenario the required capacities including a 15% reserve margin.
If compared on a monthly basis the picture slightly changes (compared to the aggregated annual view). Of course the above conclusion for the
annual view remains. However, the supply situation for the next years is only critical for the months August and July. Due to the much higher
head, mainly at Merowe, the remaining months of the year see enough capacity to meet the monthly peak demand.
With increasing peak demand this situation will worsen during the next years since up to 2016 when Upper Atbara HPP will be available - no
considerable capacity increase will occur. Typical hydrological conditions and typical monthly demand patterns assumed, the supply situation will
become critical for more than one month:
For the high scenario already in 2013 the capacity will not be enough for the months June to August. Already in 2015, the peak demand
(without reserve margin) will considerably overshoot the available capacity.
For the base scenario in 2014 for the period June to August the demand is forecasted to go beyond the available capacity. Not before
2018/2019, the peak demand (without reserve margin) will considerably overshoot the available capacity.
For the moderate scenario, in 2013 and 2014 the existing and committed capacity will be sufficient. For June to August 2015, the demand
(including reserve margin) is assume to exceed the capacity though only slightly. 2016 sufficient capacity is expected throughout the year
due to the Upper Atbara plant. For 2017, only August might see capacity shortages to meet peak demand and reserve margins. Only from
2018 onwards, periods of several months might see critical supply situation, and not before 2020, the peak demand (without reserve mar-
gin) will considerably overshoot the available capacity. .
Up to 2031, the supply gap is forecasted to reach for the most critical month 4,000 MW for the moderate scenario (compared to about 2,600 MW
during the less critical winter months), 5,100 MW for the base scenario (about 3,500 MW during the winter months) and 6,000 MW for the high
scenario (about 4,400 MW during the winter months). This means that the available capacity has to more than double for the moderate scenario
and triple for the high scenario.
56
Typical monthly development of peak load and energy demand was derived from historic monthly figures under consideration of influencing factors as detailed
in section 4.2.2. The typical available capacity and firm energy by month was assessed for each HPP considering retirement schedules for all power plants.
Maintenance was not considered, assuming that maintenance will be conducted during seasons of high available capacity and energy.
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0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
M
o
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Total dependable capacity
Moderate scenario
Base scenario
High scenario
Figure 7-2: Balancing of monthly demand and supply of peak load (MW) for moderate, base and high scenario (2006 to 2031)
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1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
M
o
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[
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Total dependable capacity
Moderate scenario
Base scenario
High scenario
Figure 7-3: Balancing of monthly demand and supply of peak load (MW) for moderate, base and high scenario (2006 to 2020)
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Monthly: balancing of monthly demand for energy and firm energy of power plants
Figure 7-4 provides the monthly comparison for the firm energy (90%) and the monthly demand for the entire study period
56
. The graphic shows
that except for the high scenario the firm energy will be sufficient to meet monthly energy demand throughout until beginning of 2019. For the high
scenario, years with low hydro conditions (equal to firm energy assumptions) might cause energy shortages already in 2015 based on the existing
and committed power plants. For all scenarios, the capacity to meet peak demand becomes critical far earlier than firm energy. Concluding, the
available energy exceeds the forecasted energy demand by far for all demand scenarios. Even though the energy supply and demand differ on a
seasonal level, the available energy of the existing and committed generation system does not lead to any supply gaps of energy if sufficient ca-
pacity is available.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
M
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[
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]
Moderate scenario energy demand (per month)
Base scenario energy demand (per month)
High scenario energy demand (per month)
Total firm energy (per month)
Total firm energy (per month)
Figure 7-4: Balancing of monthly demand and supply of (firm) energy for moderate, base and high scenario (2006 to 2031)
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The table below provides the expected peak load, reserve margin requirements and supply gaps for all three scenarios for selected years. Then
figure for the entire study period are included Annex 6.
Table 7-1: Balancing of demand and supply of peak load (MW) and energy for moderate, base and high scenario (2012 to 2031)
Unit 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2026 2031
Available capacity MW 1,853 2,139 2,374 2,379 2,810 3,474 3,474 3,474 3,474 3,474 3,474 3,017
Peak load forecast (including reserve margin)
Moderate scenario MW 1,952 2,202 2,467 2,758 3,072 3,815 4,097 4,333 4,559 4,798 6,068 7,487
Base scenario MW 2,030 2,355 2,700 3,105 3,462 4,240 4,591 4,914 5,215 5,519 6,970 8,541
High scenario MW 2,111 2,513 2,909 3,397 3,859 4,756 5,218 5,625 5,968 6,293 7,829 9,615
Supply gap power (including reserve margin)
Moderate scenario MW -99 -63 -94 -379 -132 -341 -623 -859 -1,085 -1,324 -2,594 -4,469
Base scenario MW -177 -216 -326 -726 -522 -766 -1,117 -1,440 -1,741 -2,045 -3,496 -5,524
High scenario MW -257 -374 -535 -1,018 -919 -1,282 -1,744 -2,151 -2,495 -2,819 -4,355 -6,597
Available energy GWh/a 12,792 14,944 16,739 16,783 20,057 24,136 24,136 24,136 24,136 24,136 24,136 20,604
Energy demand forecast
Moderate scenario GWh/a 9,369 10,509 11,716 13,023 14,431 17,824 19,038 20,245 21,416 22,662 29,121 35,928
Base scenario GWh/a 9,742 11,241 12,819 14,662 16,262 19,808 21,333 22,957 24,496 26,066 33,448 40,990
High scenario GWh/a 10,130 11,995 13,812 16,043 18,128 22,220 24,245 26,282 28,036 29,719 37,571 46,141
Supply gap - energy
Moderate scenario GWh/a 3,423 4,435 5,023 3,760 5,627 6,312 5,098 3,891 2,720 1,474 -4,985 -15,324
Base scenario GWh/a 3,050 3,703 3,920 2,121 3,795 4,328 2,803 1,179 -360 -1,930 -9,312 -20,386
High scenario GWh/a 2,662 2,949 2,927 740 1,930 1,916 -109 -2,146 -3,900 -5,583 -13,435 -25,537
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8 Conclusion
The supply of electricity in Sudan has increased considerably during the past decade. Due
to a strong development of new supply capacities and the electrification of new areas the
growing demand within the existing power grid could be met, load shedding reduced and
plenty of new consumers can now be served with stable power supply. In particular, the
expansion of hydropower plays an important role for the supply of base and peak load
throughout the year. It is supplemented by fossil fuel based generation.
Along the expansion of power supply the consumption of electricity has increased due to
its more widely and more secure availability. The future served demand will strongly de-
pend on the expansion of the transmission and distribution grid to currently unconnected
areas and potential customers. Depending on a range of assumptions for this expansion
three demand forecast scenarios were developed.
They range from
A moderate scenario - assuming an expansion and demand growth similar to the
recent years;
A high scenario towards the grid-connected electrification of 80% of all households
in 2031, which requires a considerable increase of electrification efforts compared
to the past; and
A base scenario in-between the above scenarios. It is forecasted to reach the elec-
trification target of 80% mainly by grid-connection supplemented by off-grid rural
electrification.
Each of the demand scenario forecasts several hundred megawatts of additional peak
load and gigawatt hours of additional demand for energy to be served during the next
years. In order to achieve the forecasted results for peak demand, energy need and elec-
trification, all scenarios require considerable expansion measures for the transmission and
distribution network. In particular, the base and high scenario
Various projects are committed and are under construction to keep up with this growing
demand. However, various delays and uncertainties the future fuel supply of the thermal
plants put their future availability at risk. If they are delayed, which is not unlikely, there will
be a considerable supply gap for the demand increase of the moderate scenario in the
near future, let alone if the higher growth rates of the base and high scenario are going to
materialise. Even a timely commissioning of the committed plants will mean a supply gap
for the moderate scenario until 2015 and will require additional capacity from 2017 on-
wards. If the base and high demand forecast materialises additional efforts to increase the
supply capacity will have to be started immediately. How this expansion of generation
capacity should ideally happen considering the characteristics of the demand and the ex-
isting power system as well as the potential energy and technology sources will be dealt
with in the successive reports on the expansion candidates.
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Annex 1
Data collection
List of data requirements
Questionnaire demand analysis
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Annex 1
# Data category Data description
1 Policy, institutional, regulatory & planning framework
1_1 Policy & regulatory Current energy policy: Energy strategy (incl. national targets
on e.g. energy sources, electrification, emissions), energy
laws, guidelines, directives
Planning criteria for energy and power sector (e.g. security of
supply, costs, emissions)
Electricity tariff scheme (end-user & wholesale); electricity
tariff methodology (how are electricity tariffs beeing
determined? How are tariff schemes beeing set up?); historic
tariffs (past 5 years) by customer type; subsidies in the
energy / power generation sector
1_2 Institutional framework Setup of relevant governmental institutions & responsibilities
(national ministry/state ministries, electricity regulator, power
generation, transmission & distribution companies, other
relevant ministries/authorities (environment, treasury etc.))
2 Demand (Note: seperate detailed questionaire for demand forecast provided by LI)
2_1 Demographic data Population growth (past 5-10 years & forecast) - national level
and by state & forecast
Average household size - national level and by state
Data on socio-economic situation of population
2_2 Economic data GDP (past 5 - 10 years & forecast) national level & by state (if
available) and growth forecast
Share of sectors (past 5 - 10 years)
Short description of economic sectors (agriculture, mining,
industry, services)
Future projects (future large consumers) including list of large
potential future customers which might connect to the power
grid during the next 10 years (including potential customers
which currently supply their own energy)
2_3 Load curves 24h Load curves (sent-out) at least one weekend/weekday for
each season
2_4 Energy consumption Total & by sector, by state; current and historic development
(past 10 years), specific consumption by customer type
List 20 largest customers with annual consumption for the
past years and monthly consumption for 12 months
Number of customers by customer type (past 10 years)
Electrification ratio/rate (population/households and area
Forecasted load (by area / on state level) for the next 5 years
Annual collection rate for the past 5 years
3 Supply
3_0 Generation Expansion
Plan
Previous Power System Plan (prepared by PB), in order to
use basic characteristics and assess deviations
3_1 Energy sources Fossil domestic (crude oil, natural gas etc.) & Uran: proven
reserves & annual production forecast (up to 2030), share
available for domestic use
Fossil import: details on coal purchase agreement (e.g.
costs, volume, duration)
Information on rail transport system (in particular between
Port Sudan and Khartoum): kind of track (gauge,
single/double), available/free capacity/current use, future
expansion
Hydro
Renewable (other than hydro)
3_2 Power generation
(hydro)
Existing, committed, planned units: Type, # of units, capacity
(installed, available, minimum), commissioning/
decommissioning date, planned/forced outage)
Existing units: annual/monthly generation past 5 to 10 years
Existing, committed, planned units: Investement costs;
operational costs (fixed, variable)
Ability of existing, committed & planned units to follow varying
load and balance (future) intermittent generation from
renewable sources (e.g. load/generation shift intra day, week,
season)
3_3 Power generation
(thermal)
Existing, committed, planned units: Type, # of units, fuel,
capacity (installed, available, minimum), net heat rate curve,
commissioning/decommissioning date, planned/forced outage
Existing, committed, planned units: Investement costs;
operational costs (fixed, variable)
Existing units: annual/monthly generation past 5 to 10 years
Ability of existing, committed & planned units to follow varying
load and balance (future) intermittent generation from
renewable sources (e.g. load/generation shift intra day, week,
season)
4
4_1 Transmission grid Network data (Single line, geographic lay-out etc.)
Network studies (load flows, short circuit, transient stability
New projects (under construction, committed, planned):
technical and economic characteristics
Grid code & other standards/design data
Technical losses - historic development as available
Technical data of generators, overhead lines and load
demands in peak and low conditions.
Metering data 33kV & 11kV substation: substation name &
location. energy (annual (5 years), monthly (12 months)); &
load curves)
Peak load and annual generation (sent-out) for the past ten
years and monthly generation for the past 3 to 4 years,
Interconnection Link to Ethiopia: load curves and metering
data (from date of commissioning until today), economic and
technical details from PPA (e.g. volume, pricing, technical
conditions)
latest version of the transmission network extension plan
4_2 Distribution grid Single line, Neplan data, down to 33kV
Tabular summary of the 33 kV network (substations
connected to which 220 / 33 kV TR, max load per feeder,
transformer ratings, average cable length of the 33 kV feeders
per substation / area.
New projects (under construction, committed, planned) & b.
medium term network expansion plan for the several areas
(up to 2016)
Losses (annual average) in the distribution grid for the past 5
to 10 years on national level and as far as available on state
level. The share of non-technical losses is not known,
however, due to >90% of pre-paid meters it is assumed to be
small
Statistics on interruptions of power supply
4_3 Dispatch Dispatch: data, rules, plan
Load shedding plan and historic data
Power grid (transmission, distribution, dispatch, SCADA etc.)
# Data category Data description
1 Policy, institutional, regulatory & planning framework
Annex 1: List of data requirements
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Annex 2
Annex 2
Demographic data
Population by state and population
growth 2009 to 2031
Population, households and
household size by state 2008
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Annex 2: Population by state and population growth 2009 2031 (million)
States 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
North State 0.72 0.74 0.76 0.79 0.81 0.84 0.86 0.89 0.91 0.94 0.96 0.98 1.01 1.03 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.13 1.15 1.18 1.20 1.23 1.25
River Nile 1.16 1.19 1.23 1.27 1.31 1.35 1.39 1.43 1.47 1.51 1.55 1.59 1.63 1.67 1.71 1.75 1.79 1.83 1.87 1.90 1.94 1.98 2.02
Red Sea 1.31 1.32 1.33 1.35 1.37 1.40 1.41 1.45 1.45 1.48 1.50 1.52 1.54 1.56 1.58 1.60 1.62 1.64 1.66 1.68 1.70 1.72 1.74
Kassala 1.82 1.91 1.99 2.06 2.13 2.21 2.28 2.36 2.44 2.52 2.59 2.67 2.74 2.82 2.90 2.97 3.05 3.13 3.20 3.28 3.35 3.43 3.51
Al Gadarif 1.42 1.49 1.57 1.65 1.74 1.83 1.92 2.01 2.11 2.21 2.28 2.37 2.45 2.54 2.63 2.72 2.80 2.89 2.98 3.07 3.15 3.24 3.33
Khartoum 5.52 5.76 6.01 6.27 6.53 6.81 7.10 7.39 7.69 7.99 8.22 8.50 8.77 9.05 9.32 9.60 9.87 10.15 10.42 10.70 10.98 11.25 11.53
Al Gezira 3.71 3.85 3.99 4.13 4.29 4.44 4.60 4.76 4.93 5.10 5.23 5.38 5.54 5.69 5.84 6.00 6.15 6.31 6.46 6.62 6.77 6.93 7.08
White Nile 1.80 1.87 1.94 2.01 2.09 2.16 2.24 2.32 2.41 2.49 2.56 2.64 2.72 2.79 2.87 2.95 3.03 3.10 3.18 3.26 3.34 3.41 3.49
Sinnar 1.34 1.40 1.45 1.52 1.58 1.64 1.71 1.78 1.85 1.92 1.97 2.04 2.10 2.17 2.23 2.30 2.36 2.42 2.49 2.55 2.62 2.68 2.75
Blue Nile 0.86 0.88 0.91 0.94 0.97 0.99 1.02 1.05 1.08 1.11 1.13 1.16 1.19 1.22 1.25 1.27 1.30 1.33 1.36 1.39 1.41 1.44 1.47
North Kordufan 2.95 2.99 3.02 3.05 3.07 3.10 3.12 3.14 3.16 3.17 3.21 3.24 3.26 3.29 3.31 3.34 3.36 3.39 3.41 3.43 3.46 3.48 3.51
South Kordufan 1.60 1.65 1.70 1.76 1.81 1.87 1.93 1.98 2.05 2.11 2.16 2.21 2.27 2.33 2.38 2.44 2.50 2.55 2.61 2.67 2.72 2.78 2.84
North Darfur 2.14 2.16 2.19 2.21 2.23 2.25 2.27 2.28 2.30 2.30 2.34 2.35 2.37 2.39 2.41 2.43 2.45 2.47 2.48 2.50 2.52 2.54 2.56
West Darfur 1.35 1.39 1.44 1.48 1.53 1.58 1.63 1.68 1.73 1.78 1.82 1.87 1.91 1.96 2.01 2.06 2.10 2.15 2.20 2.25 2.29 2.34 2.39
South Darfur 4.21 4.33 4.45 4.57 4.70 4.83 4.96 5.09 5.22 5.35 5.47 5.60 5.73 5.85 5.98 6.11 6.23 6.36 6.49 6.62 6.74 6.87 7.00
SUDAN TOTAL 31.90 32.92 33.98 35.06 36.16 37.29 38.44 39.60 40.78 41.98 42.98 44.11 45.23 46.35 47.47 48.59 49.72 50.84 51.96 53.08 54.21 55.33 56.45
Average growth [%] 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.4% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0%
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Annex 2: Population, households and household size by state 2008
States Population (2008) Households Share of urban, rural and
nomadic population
Area Area close to grid Population
density
share of
total
Number of
households
Household
size Urban Rural Normadic
Share of
total
Share of
total
[%]
[people/
household] [%] [%] [%] [km
2
] [%] [km
2
] [%]
[people/
km
2
]
Sudan TOTAL 30.894.000 100% 5.390.135 5,7 33% 58% 9% 1.800.727 100% 52.848 3% 17
North State 699.065 2% 117.743 5,9 17% 81% 2% 367.733 20% 5.864 2% 2
River Nile 1.120.441 4% 200.032 5,6 30% 68% 3% 130.461 7% 6.611 5% 9
Red Sea 1.396.110 5% 258.058 5,4 39% 43% 18% 216.206 12% 655 0% 6
Kassala 1.789.806 6% 321.188 5,6 26% 63% 11% 43.346 2% 2.289 5% 41
Al Gadarif 1.348.378 4% 239.590 5,6 28% 70% 1% 59.929 3% 8.765 15% 22
Khartoum 5.274.321 17% 871.142 6,1 81% 19% 0% 19.408 1% 1.999 10% 272
Al Gezira 3.575.280 12% 592.781 6,0 19% 81% 0% 27.609 2% 16.143 58% 129
White Nile 1.730.588 6% 300.071 5,8 34% 64% 2% 56.369 3% 2.240 4% 31
Sinnar 1.285.058 4% 222.293 5,8 22% 76% 2% 37.665 2% 5.380 14% 34
Blue Nile 832.112 3% 145.723 5,7 24% 72% 4% 39.006 2% 298 1% 21
North Kordufan 2.920.992 9% 543.956 5,4 20% 67% 13% 240.558 13% 1.446 1% 12
South Kordufan 1.406.404 5% 240.358 5,9 24% 65% 12% 156.117 9% 166 0% 9
North Darfur 2.113.626 7% 373.060 5,7 17% 64% 19% 257.419 14% 368 0% 8
West Darfur 1.308.225 4% 270.688 4,8 17% 65% 18% 52.284 3% 208 0% 25
South Darfur 4.093.594 13% 693.452 5,9 22% 55% 24% 96.617 5% 416 0% 42
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Annex 3
Annex 3
Economic data
GDP historic development by sec-
tor 2000 to 2011 (million SDG; real
/ 1981/82 prices)
GDP historic growth (real) 2000 to
2011 - comparison national source
(CBS) and international source
(IMF)
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Annex 3
Annex 3: GDP historic development by sector 2000 to 2011 (million SDG; real / 1981/82 prices)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011*
Agriculture 5.6 6.1 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.5 6.9 7.5 8.1 8.6 9.2 9.5
Mining (of which > 95% is petroleum) 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.6 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 1.6
Other Mining and Quarrying 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Industry 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.4
Services (private) 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.7 7.2 7.8 8.2 8.8 9.2
Services (government) 1.6 1.9 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4
TOTAL 14.7 16.3 17.2 18.3 19.3 20.3 22.4 24.8 26.4 28.0 29.4 30.1
Growth (annual) 8.4% 10.8% 6.0% 6.3% 5.1% 5.6% 9.9% 10.9% 6.4% 5.9% 5.2% 2.5%
*primary estimates
Annex 3: GDP historic growth (real) 2000 to 2011 - comparison national source (CBS) and international source (IMF)
Source Unit 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Historic (source: CBS)
% 8.38 10.80 6.00 6.29 5.14 5.65 9.87 10.89 6.44 5.94 5.20 2.50
Historic (source: WEO 2012, IMF)
% na na na na 3.9 7.5 10.1 11.5 3.2 3 4.5 -3.9
Difference (CBS - IMF)
% na na na na 1.24 -1.85 -0.23 -0.61 3.24 2.94 0.70 6.40
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Annex 4
Power system data Sudan
Electric energy consumption by
state and sector
Existing and committed generation
facilities
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Annex 4
Annex 4: Electric energy consumption by state and sector (GWh/a)
Customer group Domestic Industrial Commercial Agricultural Governmental
State Year 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006
North State 109 93 61 41 29 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 17 11 8 6 5 36 19 9 6 5 5 23 20 11 14 8 7
River Nile 148 133 99 82 71 65 158 118 69 16 11 10 25 24 22 16 13 10 36 25 16 12 4 1 31 28 22 24 21 16
Red Sea 126 118 94 73 64 57 5 7 6 3 4 3 29 28 25 21 17 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 34 27 16 20 14 12
Kassala 94 77 63 59 54 52 4 3 2 1 4 4 21 18 16 16 13 11 15 12 11 10 8 7 20 20 18 18 16 14
Al Gadarif 70 49 41 35 30 27 1 1 1 1 1 1 15 12 11 10 8 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 15 13 13 12 11
Khartoum 2211 2026 1725 1480 1251 1112 734 636 562 432 453 394 787 769 676 587 501 419 121 102 80 66 47 38 609 599 438 510 413 372
Al Gezira 363 322 276 238 226 227 46 43 47 54 57 61 50 50 45 39 32 23 27 22 23 20 19 17 62 54 46 46 38 30
White Nile 89 73 64 56 49 40 74 57 55 30 66 81 18 16 12 10 9 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 15 11 12 9 9
Sinnar 85 80 64 57 54 60 6 5 4 5 8 8 15 14 12 9 9 7 71 44 57 52 38 55 15 15 12 13 9 7
Blue Nile 27 25 22 17 16 15 14 13 0 0 1 1 6 6 6 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 7 6 7 5 5
North Kordufan 60 45 35 32 28 26 5 5 4 3 3 3 17 14 12 11 10 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 23 20 17 19 16 17
South Kordufan 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
North Darfur 20 13 13 11 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 13 7 7 5 3
West Darfur 6 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
South Darfur 27 16 17 16 14 14 2 1 1 1 1 1 8 6 6 5 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 6 6 6 7 8
TOTAL Sudan 3437 3071 2575 2199 1894 1725 1049 888 751 546 608 566 1016 978 856 740 628 523 308 224 196 167 120 124 880 841 624 709 573 509
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Annex 4
Annex 4: Plant characteristics existing and committed generation facilities
Category Sub-Category Unit KN_1-ST KN_2-ST KN_3-4-ST KN_5-6-ST KN_0-GT G1_B1-2-CCGT2+1 G2_B1-2-CCGT2+1 G4_U1-2-ST ReS-ST AlF-ST Kos-ST M-HP Ros-HP Sen-HP Jeb-HP KhE-HP UpA-HP ResD-HP SenU-HP
Identification Number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Name Khartoum North 1 Khartoum North 2 KhartoumNorth 3+4 KhartoumNorth 5+6 KhartoumNorth GT Garri -1 Bl ock1+2 Garri -2 Bl ock1+2 Garri 4 U1-2 Red Sea Al Ful a Kosti Merowe Ros ei res Sennar Jebal Aul i a Khashm El Gi rba Upper Atbara Ros ei res dam hei ght.Sennar Upgradi ng
Name Tag KN_1 KN_2 KN_3-4 KN_5-6 KN_0 G1_B1-2 G2_B1-2 G4_U1-2 ReS AlF Kos M Ros Sen Jeb KhE UpA ResD SenU
Type ST ST ST ST GT CCGT2+1 CCGT2+1 ST ST ST ST HP HP HP HP HP HP HP HP
Status exists exists exists exi sts exi sts exists exists exists commi tted commi tted commi tted exists exists exi sts exi sts exi sts committed committed commi tted
Location State Khartoum Khartoum Khartoum Khartoum Khartoum Khartoum Khartoum Khartoum Red Sea South Kordofan Whi te Nil e North Blue Ni le Si nnar White Nil e/Khartoum Al Gadari f Al Gadarif Bl ue Nil e Si nnar
Substation KHN KHN KHN KHN KHN GAR GAR GAR POR1 FUL RBK MWP ROS SMP JAS GRB not known ROS SMP
Latitude N 15.65 15.65 15.65 15.65 15.65 16.12 16.12 16.12 20.22 11.72 13.16 18.67 11.80 13.55 15.24 14.93 14.35 11.80 13.55
Longitude E 32.56 32.56 32.56 32.56 32.56 32.69 32.69 32.69 37.20 28.38 32.66 32.06 34.39 33.64 32.49 35.91 35.86 34.39 33.64
Fuel Pri mary Fuel HCGO HCGO HFO HFO Gasoil Gasoil Gasoil Sponge Coke Coal Gas Blend (Neem) Crude Hydro Hydro Hydro Hydro Hydro Hydro Hydro Hydro
Secondary Fuel HFO HFO HCGO HCGO na LPG LPG na na Crude HFO na na na na na na na na
Terti ary Fuel na na na na na HCGO HCGO na na Diesel na na na na na na na na na
Fuel Switch year onl y HCGO onl y HCGO dual fuel operati on onl y HFO na not known not known na na dual fuel operati on not decided na na na na na na na na
Effective Fuel HCGO HCGO HFO HFO Gasoil Gasoil Gasoil Sponge Coke Coal Gas Blend (Neem) Crude Hydro Hydro Hydro Hydro Hydro Hydro Hydro Hydro
Capacity Unit Type 1 ST ST ST ST GT GT GT ST ST ST ST Francis Kapl an Kapl an Matrix Kaplan Kaplan na Kaplan
No. of Uni ts # 1 1 2 2 2 4 4 2 2 3 4 10.0 7.0 2.0 80.0 2.0 4.0 7.0 2
Unit Capaci ty Install ed (Gross) MW 30 30 60 100 25 30 30 55 300 135 125 125.0 40.0 7.5 0.4 5.1 80.0 na 13.0
Unit Capaci ty Avail able (Net) MW 28 28 55 95 17 28 28 50 267 127 118 123.8 38.6 6.0 0.24 5.0 79.2 na 12.87
Unit Type 2 na na na na na ST ST na na na na na na na na na na na na
No. of Uni ts # 2 2
Unit Capaci ty Install ed (Gross) MW 30 30
Unit Capaci ty Avail able (Net) MW 28 28
Total No. Of Uni ts # 1 1 2 2 2 6 6 2 2 3 4
Mi n. Capacity % 20% 20% 15% 15% 40% 7% 7% 50% 40% 15% 15% 31.3 10.0 1.9 0.1 1.3 20.0 na 3.3
Sel f-Consumption % 7.7% 7.7% 7.1% 5.9% 1.6% 6.1% 6.1% 9.4% 11.0% 6.0% 6.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Max. Effi ciency % 29.4% 29.4% 32.4% 35.3% 24.2% 43.3% 43.3% 32.3% 36.7% 36.7% 36.7% na for hydro na for hydro na for hydro na for hydro na for hydro na for hydro na for hydro na for hydro
Plant Capaci ty Install ed (Gross) MW 30.0 30.0 120.0 200.0 50.0 180.0 180.0 110.0 600.0 405.0 500.0 1,250.0 280.0 15.0 30.4 10.1 320.0 280.0 26.0
Plant Max. Capacity Avai labl e (Net) MW 27.7 27.7 110.0 190.0 33.6 170.0 170.0 99.7 534.0 380.7 470.0 1,237.5 270.0 12.0 19.0 10.0 316.8 270.0 25.7
Generation (net) average (histori c) GWh/a 129 120 443 620 57 656 663 450 4,079 2,908 3,590 5,031 1,141 69 63 27 834 1,468 105
average (planned) 212 212 840 1,408 265 1,346 1,346 708 4,079 2,908 3,590 5,865 1,141 69 68 69 834 1,468 105
fi rm 90% (hydro) / effecti ve avai labil ity (thermal ) GWh/a 212 212 840 1,408 265 1,346 1,346 708 4,079 2,908 3,590 5,446 1,051 49 55 67 710 1,408 94
2011 GWh/a 75 408 620 1 123 73 450 na na na 5,110 1,084 84 62 43 na na na
2010 GWh/a 85 32 188 na 15 332 381 150 na na na 4,952 1,029 42 62 41 na na na
2009 GWh/a 152 178 503 na 92 844 878 na na na na 1,971 1,089 60 77 14 na na na
2008 GWh/a 171 201 572 na 100 1,068 1,068 na na na na na 1,269 77 50 17 na na na
2007 GWh/a 163 191 544 na 80 916 916 na na na na na 1,236 83 62 22 na na na
Capacity Factor average (histori c) % 53% 50% 46% 37% 19% 44% 45% 51% 87% 87% 87% 46% 48% 66% 38% 31% 30% 62% 47%
fi rm 90% (hydro) / effecti ve avai labil ity (thermal ) % 87% 87% 87% 85% 90% 90% 90% 81% 87% 87% 87% 50% 44% 47% 33% 77% 26% 60% 42%
2011 % 31% 42% 37% 0% 8% 5% 51% na na na 47% 46% 80% 37% 49% na na na
2010 % 35% 13% 20% na 5% 22% 26% 17% na na na 46% 43% 40% 37% 47% na na na
2009 % 62% 73% 52% na 31% 57% 59% na na na na 18% 46% 57% 46% 16% na na na
2008 % 71% 83% 59% na 34% 72% 72% na na na na na 54% 73% 30% 20% na na na
2007 % 67% 79% 56% na 27% 62% 62% na na na na na 52% 79% 37% 25% na na na
Generation (gross) 2011 GWh/a 81 440 659 1 131 78 496 na na na 5,162 1,095 85 63 43 na na na
2010 GWh/a 92 35 202 na 15 353 406 166 na na na 5,002 1,039 43 63 41 na na na
2009 GWh/a 164 193 541 na 93 899 935 na na na na 1,990 1,100 60 77 14 na na na
2008 GWh/a 185 218 615 na 102 1,137 1,137 na na na na na 1,281 78 50 18 na na na
2007 GWh/a 176 207 585 na 81 975 975 na na na na na 1,248 84 63 22 na na na
Lifetime Li fetime total (expected) years 30 26 37 30 23 / 25 25 25 18 30 29 30
1st year of operation (earl iest) year 1985 1984 1994 2011 1992 / 2001 2003 2003 2010 2017 2016 2013 - 2014 2009 1966 1962 2003 , 2005 1964 2016 2013 2015
Last year of operati on (latest) year 2015 2010 2031 2041 2015 / 2026 2028 2028 2028 2046 2044 2043 >2031 2012 2014 >2031 >2031 >2031 >2031 >2031
Operation Must-run yes/no no no no no no no no no no no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Foreced Outage Rate (FOR) % 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Planned Outage Rate (POR) days/year 30 30 30 40 30 25 25 50 30 30 30
Effective Avai labi li ty (EA) % 87% 87% 87% 85% 90% 90% 90% 81% 87% 87% 87% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Costs O&M Fixed USD/kW/year 20 20 20 12 20 20 20 28 60 20 20 7 11 16 22 37 24 11 16
%of CAPEX na na na na na na na na 2.0% 0.4% na na na na na na 1.5% na na
O&M Vari abl e USD/MWh 1.0 1.0 1.0 4.3 12.0 2.2 2.2 6.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.9 3.8 3.6 6.2 8.5 10.2 3.8 2.9
Unit Ramp-Up Costs USD/ramp-up 2,000 2,000 4,000 7,000 1,000 5000 / 900 5000 / 900 4,000 14,000 7,000 7,000
0% FOR assumed
Maintance consi deri ng annual hydrograph. Thus, no POR for average energy. Maxi mum capacity might be affected
beyond study period (>> 50 years)
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Annex 4
Thermal Hydro
Exi sti ng Commi tted Exi sti ng Commi tted
Category Sub-Category Unit KN_1-ST KN_2-ST KN_3-4-ST KN_5-6-ST KN_0-GT G1_B1-2-CCGT2+1 G2_B1-2-CCGT2+1 G4_U1-2-ST ReS-ST AlF-ST Kos-ST M-HP Ros-HP Sen-HP Jeb-HP KhE-HP UpA-HP ResD-HP SenU-HP
Identification Number 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Name 0 Khartoum North 1 Khartoum North 2 KhartoumNorth 3+4 KhartoumNorth 5+6 KhartoumNorth GT Garri -1 Bl ock1+2 Garri -2 Bl ock1+2 Garri 4 U1-2 Red Sea Al Ful a Kosti Merowe Rosei res Sennar Jebal Aul i a Khashm El Gi rba Upper Atbara Rosei res dam hei ght.Sennar Upgradi ng
Name Tag 0 KN_1 KN_2 KN_3-4 KN_5-6 KN_0 G1_B1-2 G2_B1-2 G4_U1-2 ReS Al F Kos M Ros Sen Jeb KhE UpA ResD SenU
Type 0 ST ST ST ST GT CCGT2+1 CCGT2+1 ST ST ST ST HP HP HP HP HP HP HP HP
Status 0 exi sts exi sts exi sts exi sts exi sts exi sts exi sts exi sts commi tted commi tted commi tted exi sts exi sts exi sts exi sts exi sts commi tted commi tted commi tted
Net heat rate (thermal only) At 100%l oad kJ/kWh 12,253 12,253 11,119 10,207 14,871 8,305 8,305 11,140 9,790 10,805 10,777 na na na na na na na na
At 90% l oad kJ/kWh 12,211 12,211 11,125 10,180 15,320 8,460 8,460 11,286 9,842 10,847 10,851 na na na na na na na na
Minimum Capacity (hydro only) January MW na na na na na na na na na na na 237 57 8 15 2 20 36 8
mean mi n February MW na na na na na na na na na na na 232 60 7 14 2 20 35 7
March MW na na na na na na na na na na na 222 40 7 13 2 20 32 7
Apri l MW na na na na na na na na na na na 212 20 7 7 5 20 30 7
May MW na na na na na na na na na na na 203 34 6 0 3 20 27 6
June MW na na na na na na na na na na na 195 126 6 0 2 20 23 6
Jul y MW na na na na na na na na na na na 184 86 7 0 0 20 18 7
August MW na na na na na na na na na na na 179 58 0 0 2 20 16 0
September MW na na na na na na na na na na na 191 82 3 0 2 20 23 3
October MW na na na na na na na na na na na 223 175 6 10 4 20 35 6
November MW na na na na na na na na na na na 242 137 7 15 5 20 36 7
December MW na na na na na na na na na na na 243 93 7 15 6 20 37 7
Available (dependable) capacity (hydro) January MW na na na na na na na na na na na 1,250 191 11 17 10 309 229 19
(mean max) February MW na na na na na na na na na na na 1,250 161 11 18 9 303 200 19
March MW na na na na na na na na na na na 1,241 149 10 17 9 289 186 17
Apri l MW na na na na na na na na na na na 1,193 129 11 12 9 269 161 19
May MW na na na na na na na na na na na 1,144 163 11 4 9 248 206 19
June MW na na na na na na na na na na na 1,061 193 10 1 9 227 240 17
September MW na na na na na na na na na na na 1,067 233 8 5 10 314 263 14
October MW na na na na na na na na na na na 1,246 265 11 15 10 315 269 19
November MW na na na na na na na na na na na 1,250 270 9 17 10 314 270 16
December MW na na na na na na na na na na na 1,250 235 11 18 10 312 256 19
Firm power (hydro only) January MW na na na na na na na na na na na 576 156 10 10 7 67 179 16
February MW na na na na na na na na na na na 576 168 10 10 7 67 175 16
March MW na na na na na na na na na na na 576 89 8 12 7 60 179 14
Apri l MW na na na na na na na na na na na 576 61 6 5 7 61 171 10
May MW na na na na na na na na na na na 576 61 6 0 7 52 150 11
June MW na na na na na na na na na na na 576 168 7 0 7 59 138 12
September MW na na na na na na na na na na na 700 98 1 0 9 192 121 1
October MW na na na na na na na na na na na 755 218 7 7 8 71 215 12
November MW na na na na na na na na na na na 653 207 9 15 8 61 209 15
December MW na na na na na na na na na na na 583 170 7 15 8 60 182 12
Mean generation (hydro only) January MWh/day na na na na na na na na na na na 14,028 2,658 205 347 178 1,642 4,340 307
February MWh/day na na na na na na na na na na na 13,941 2,776 203 327 175 1,725 4,312 345
March MWh/day na na na na na na na na na na na 13,913 1,901 199 333 173 1,605 4,310 338
Apri l MWh/day na na na na na na na na na na na 13,914 1,173 174 180 169 1,604 4,284 295
May MWh/day na na na na na na na na na na na 13,914 1,972 182 17 167 1,371 3,665 310
June MWh/day na na na na na na na na na na na 13,910 3,729 184 1 173 1,610 3,490 313
Jul y MWh/day na na na na na na na na na na na 16,539 3,142 195 1 202 2,961 2,820 331
August MWh/day na na na na na na na na na na na 17,269 1,931 55 0 201 4,119 2,491 93
September MWh/day na na na na na na na na na na na 19,461 2,925 83 41 222 5,375 3,619 141
October MWh/day na na na na na na na na na na na 21,765 5,037 177 255 212 2,454 5,383 301
November MWh/day na na na na na na na na na na na 19,057 4,581 207 357 195 1,468 5,047 351
December MWh/day na na na na na na na na na na na 14,972 3,627 196 369 187 1,474 4,557 333
18.10.2012
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Annex 5
Annex 5
Assumptions by locality
Demographic assumptions (popula-
tion size, average household size,
number of households, population
density)
Geographic assumptions (area)
Electrification assumptions (con-
nection status national / isolated
grid, distance to national grid, esti-
mated connection for moderate
scenario)
18.10.2012
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Annex 5
Annex 5: Demographic, geographic and electrification assumptions by locality
ID Locality State Area Population (2008) Power supply (2012) Electrification - Transmission
Total Urban
share
House-hol ds (hh) Densi ty Nati ona
l gri d
I sol ate
d gri ds
Di stance
to nati onal
gri d
Status
transm.
project
km2 share
of
total
% Persons
/hh
Number
of hh
Peopl e
/km2
Connect
ed
Number km2 share km c=com
mi tted;
p=pl an
L1 Wadi Hal fa North State 131,700 7% 33,631 53% 5.2 6,468 0.3 no 1 102 0.1% 206 c
L2 Dal go North State 57,335 3% 42,133 3% 4.9 8,599 0.7 no 0 0 no gri d 0
L3 Al Burgage North State 1,423 0% 87,319 10% 7.1 12,298 61.3 no 0 0 no gri d 0
L4 Dongul a North State 48,480 3% 150,161 37% 5.8 25,890 3.1 yes 0 2,055 4.2% 0
L5 Al Gol i d North State 65,886 4% 79,547 2% 5.6 14,205 1.2 yes 0 1,020 1.5% 0
L6 Al Debba North State 45,308 2% 148,545 7% 7.0 21,221 3.3 yes 0 868 1.9% 0
L7 Merowe North State 17,600 1% 157,729 14% 5.4 29,209 9.0 yes 0 1,819 10.3% 0
L8 Abu Hamad Ri ver Ni l e 50,300 3% 127,995 10% 4.3 29,766 2.5 no 0 0 no gri d 225 c
L9 Barbar Ri ver Ni l e 13,439 1% 152,377 28% 5.7 26,733 11.3 no 0 1,320 9.8% 36 c
L10 Atbara Ri ver Ni l e 8,612 0% 134,586 83% 5.7 23,612 15.6 yes 0 1,420 16.5% 0
L11 Al Damar Ri ver Ni l e 37,014 2% 284,148 26% 5.8 48,991 7.7 yes 0 845 2.3% 0
L12 Shendi Ri ver Ni l e 11,829 1% 269,446 29% 5.8 46,456 22.8 yes 0 2,072 17.5% 0
L13 Al Matamma Ri ver Ni l e 9,267 0% 151,889 9% 6.1 24,900 16.4 yes 0 954 10.3% 0
L14 Hal ai b Red Sea 81,099 4% 109,117 0% 5.7 19,143 1.3 no 0 0 no gri d 400 p
L15 Al Ganab Red Sea 70,517 4% 111,813 0% 5.9 18,951 1.6 no 0 0 no gri d 200 p
L16 Port Sudan Red Sea 528 0% 399,140 99% 5.2 76,758 756.5 yes 0 655 124.1% 0
L17 Sawaki n Red Sea 1,983 0% 82,150 52% 4.2 19,560 41.4 no 1 40 2.0% 60 p
L18 Si nkat Red Sea 8,061 0% 159,085 42% 4.5 35,352 19.7 yes 0 161 2.0% 0
L19 Haya Red Sea 34,873 2% 285,540 4% 6.1 46,810 8.2 yes 0 697 2.0% 0
L20 Tokar Red Sea 11,398 1% 170,273 22% 6.0 28,379 14.9 no 1 228 2.0% 160 p
L21 Agage Red Sea 7,748 0% 78,992 0% 6.4 12,343 10.2 no 1 155 2.0% 220 p
L22 North Al Del ta Kassal a 7,366 0% 91,851 15% 5.4 17,009 12.5 no 0 0 no gri d 150 p
L23 Ri fi Hamashkorabe Kassal a 3,972 0% 255,288 0% 7.6 33,591 64.3 no 0 0 no gri d 150 p
L24 Ri fi Tal kok Kassal a 6,319 0% 274,978 0% 6.7 41,041 43.5 no 0 0 no gri d 100 p
L25 Ri fe Aroma Kassal a 5,960 0% 102,759 15% 4.8 21,408 17.2 no 0 148 2.5% 50 p
L26 Kassal a West Kassal a 1,964 0% 79,376 0% 5.5 14,432 40.4 no 0 58 3.0% 50 p
L27 Kassal a Kassal a 133 0% 298,529 100% 5.6 53,309 2,248.0 yes 0 93 70.0% 0
L28 Ri fe Kassal a Kassal a 2,933 0% 154,630 0% 4.6 33,615 52.7 yes 0 756 25.8% 0
L29 New Hal fa Kassal a 1,527 0% 211,864 39% 5.1 41,542 138.8 yes 0 727 47.6% 0
L30 Ri fi Nahr Atbara Kassal a 2,385 0% 136,911 0% 5.0 27,382 57.4 no 0 136 5.7% 50 p
L31 Ri fi Khashm Al Gi rba Kassal a 12,087 1% 98,939 43% 5.0 19,788 8.2 yes 0 341 2.8% 0
L32 Ri fi Wad Al Hi l ew Kassal a 5,019 0% 84,681 20% 4.5 18,818 16.9 no 0 0 no gri d 50 p
L33 Al Butana Al Gadari f 19,602 1% 71,365 0% 6.7 10,651 3.6 no 0 4,828 24.6% 150 p
L34 Al Fashaga Al Gadari f 5,326 0% 120,835 17% 5.4 22,377 22.7 yes 0 750 14.1% 0
L35 Wasat Al Gadari f Al Gadari f 9,581 1% 111,669 0% 6.2 18,011 11.7 no 0 869 9.1% 50 p
L36 Al Gadari f Ci ty Al Gadari f 119 0% 269,395 100% 6.0 44,899 2,269.7 yes 0 119 100.0% 0
L37 Al Faw Al Gadari f 2,146 0% 176,662 17% 5.7 30,993 82.3 yes 0 1,725 80.4% 0
L38 Al Rahad Al Gadari f 3,512 0% 196,438 19% 6.0 32,740 55.9 no 0 0 no gri d 0
L39 Gal a Al Nahal Al Gadari f 3,919 0% 66,122 11% 5.0 13,224 16.9 no 0 0 no gri d 50 p
L40 Al Gal abat Al Gharbi a (Kassab) Al Gadari f 4,090 0% 91,875 0% 5.2 17,668 22.5 yes 0 593 14.5% 0
L41 Al Guresha Al Gadari f 3,803 0% 83,394 0% 5.0 16,679 21.9 no 0 0 no gri d 50 p
L42 Al Gal abat Al Shargi a Al Gadari f 7,830 0% 160,623 12% 4.9 32,780 20.5 no 0 0 no gri d 100 p
L43 Karari Khartoum 2,914 0% 714,079 90% 6.1 117,062 245.1 yes 0 185 6.3% 0
L44 Um Badda Khartoum 3,466 0% 988,163 87% 6.1 161,994 285.1 yes 0 130 3.8% 0
L45 Um Durman Khartoum 1,220 0% 513,088 67% 6.0 85,515 420.7 yes 0 126 10.3% 0
L46 Bahri Khartoum 1,398 0% 608,817 77% 6.0 101,470 435.6 yes 0 375 26.8% 0
L47 Sharg Al Ni l e Khartoum 9,465 1% 868,147 63% 6.0 144,691 91.7 yes 0 385 4.1% 0
L48 Al Khartoum Khartoum 167 0% 639,598 100% 6.1 104,852 3,827.9 yes 0 184 110.1% 0
L49 Jabal Aul i a Khartoum 780 0% 942,429 82% 6.1 154,497 1,208.7 yes 0 614 78.7% 0
L50 Sharg Al Gezi ra Al Gezi ra 6,514 0% 463,154 18% 5.9 78,501 71.1 yes 0 415 6.4% 0
L51 Al Kaml i n Al Gezi ra 1,825 0% 401,930 9% 6.0 66,988 220.2 yes 0 1,870 102.5% 0
L52 Al Hasahi sa Al Gezi ra 4,159 0% 606,389 17% 6.0 101,065 145.8 yes 0 2,540 61.1% 0
L53 Um Al Gura Al Gezi ra 3,929 0% 218,478 7% 6.0 36,413 55.6 yes 0 1,587 40.4% 0
L54 Wad Medani Al Kubra Al Gezi ra 560 0% 423,863 68% 6.1 69,486 756.4 yes 0 816 145.6% 0
L55 Ganub Al Gezi ra Al Gezi ra 3,750 0% 555,250 3% 6.2 89,556 148.1 yes 0 2,703 72.1% 0
L56 Al Managi l Al Gezi ra 6,872 0% 906,216 16% 6.0 151,036 131.9 yes 0 6,212 90.4% 0
L57 Al Gutai na Whi te Ni l e 5,742 0% 245,183 16% 5.6 43,783 42.7 yes 0 748 13.0% 0
L58 Um Ramta Whi te Ni l e 3,013 0% 118,919 10% 5.1 23,317 39.5 no 0 0 no gri d 50 p
L59 Al Dwame Whi te Ni l e 5,868 0% 295,695 31% 5.8 50,982 50.4 yes 0 620 10.6% 0
L60 Rabak Whi te Ni l e 1,688 0% 239,665 68% 6.2 38,656 141.9 yes 0 360 21.3% 0
L61 Al Jabal ai n Whi te Ni l e 3,734 0% 177,414 12% 6.0 29,569 47.5 no 0 150 4.0% 50 p
L62 Kosti Whi te Ni l e 4,618 0% 404,763 55% 5.9 68,604 87.7 yes 0 232 5.0% 0
L63 Al Sal am (WN) Whi te Ni l e 27,332 1% 106,419 0% 5.5 19,349 3.9 no 0 0 no gri d 50 p
L64 Tandal ti Whi te Ni l e 4,374 0% 142,530 22% 5.5 25,915 32.6 yes 0 130 3.0% 0
Coverage of
power suppl y
18.10.2012
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Annex 5
ID Locality State Area Population (2008) Power supply (2012) Electrification - Transmission
Total Urban
share
House-hol ds (hh) Densi ty Nati ona
l gri d
I sol ate
d gri ds
Di stance
to nati onal
gri d
Status
transm.
project
km2 share
of
total
% Persons
/hh
Number
of hh
Peopl e
/km2
Connect
ed
Number km2 share km c=com
mi tted;
p=pl an
Coverage of
power suppl y
L65 Sharg Si nnar Si nnar 3,154 0% 227,399 0% 5.9 38,542 72.1 yes 0 2,010 63.7% 0
L66 Si nnar Si nnar 5,528 0% 296,871 41% 5.7 52,083 53.7 yes 0 1,604 29.0% 0
L67 Al Di nder Si nnar 14,194 1% 193,466 13% 5.7 33,941 13.6 yes 0 229 1.6% 0
L68 Al Souki Si nnar 2,779 0% 208,833 17% 5.9 35,395 75.1 yes 0 431 15.5% 0
L69 Si nga Si nnar 1,723 0% 155,071 49% 5.7 27,205 90.0 yes 0 558 32.4% 0
L70 Abu Hujar Si nnar 2,212 0% 131,846 14% 6.0 21,974 59.6 yes 0 374 16.9% 0
L71 Al Dal i Si nnar 8,075 0% 71,770 0% 5.4 13,291 8.9 yes 0 174 2.2% 0
L72 Al Rosai res Bl ue Ni l e 7,872 0% 215,857 27% 6.0 35,976 27.4 yes 0 125 1.6% 0
L73 Al Damazi ne Bl ue Ni l e 1,893 0% 212,712 64% 5.8 36,674 112.4 yes 0 173 9.1% 0
L74 Al Tadamun Bl ue Ni l e 8,085 0% 77,686 0% 5.6 13,873 9.6 no 0 0 no gri d 100 p
L75 Baw Bl ue Ni l e 7,358 0% 127,251 0% 6.1 20,861 17.3 no 0 0 no gri d 100 p
L76 Gei ssan Bl ue Ni l e 3,505 0% 87,809 0% 5.2 16,886 25.1 no 0 0 no gri d 150 p
L77 Al Kormuk Bl ue Ni l e 10,293 1% 110,815 6% 5.1 21,728 10.8 no 0 0 no gri d 150 p
L78 Jabrat Al Shei kh North Kordufan 50,974 3% 231,208 5% 5.3 43,624 4.5 no 0 0 no gri d 200 p
L79 Sodari North Kordufan 83,065 4% 271,465 2% 5.3 51,220 3.3 no 0 0 no gri d 215 p
L80 Bara North Kordufan 22,890 1% 361,206 4% 5.0 72,241 15.8 no 0 303 1.3% 60 p
L81 Um Rawaba North Kordufan 22,285 1% 634,718 15% 5.1 124,455 28.5 yes 0 329 1.5% 0
L82 Al Nuhood North Kordufan 15,837 1% 256,482 26% 5.8 44,221 16.2 no 1 220 1.4% 370 c
L83 Shei kan North Kordufan 8,437 0% 540,898 64% 5.7 94,894 64.1 yes 0 594 7.0% 0
L84 Abu Zabad North Kordufan 10,925 1% 178,110 13% 5.7 31,247 16.3 no 0 0 no gri d 140 c
L85 Wad Banda North Kordufan 11,473 1% 156,286 0% 5.2 30,055 13.6 no 0 0 no gri d 470 p
L86 Gebashe North Kordufan 14,671 1% 290,619 8% 5.5 52,840 19.8 no 0 0 no gri d 385 p
L87 Al Rashad South Kordufan 9,137 0% 228,348 14% 5.7 40,061 25.0 no 0 0 no gri d 129 c
L88 Abu Ji beha South Kordufan 23,524 1% 202,113 23% 6.2 32,599 8.6 no 0 0 no gri d 179 c
L89 Al Del anj South Kordufan 16,514 1% 233,268 25% 5.6 41,655 14.1 no 0 0 no gri d 153 c
L90 Kadogl y South Kordufan 11,625 1% 105,252 64% 6.2 16,976 9.1 no 1 166 1.4% 401 c
L91 Al Sal am (SK) South Kordufan 27,332 1% 127,462 46% 5.7 22,362 4.7 no 0 0 no gri d 340 c
L92 Tal odi South Kordufan 17,797 1% 98,937 14% 6.1 16,219 5.6 no 0 0 no gri d 315 c
L93 Lagawa South Kordufan 14,340 1% 170,677 7% 5.7 29,943 11.9 no 0 0 no gri d 353 c
L94 Kal i k South Kordufan 8,804 0% 42,666 0% 6.3 6,772 4.8 no 0 0 no gri d 501 p
L95 Abyei South Kordufan 27,043 1% 197,781 20% 5.9 33,522 7.3 no 0 0 no gri d 545 p
L96 Al Mal ha North Darfur 179,282 10% 165,548 0% 7.5 22,073 0.9 no 0 0 no gri d 1,272 p
L97 Mal l et North Darfur 4,857 0% 135,831 37% 6.5 20,897 28.0 no 0 0 no gri d 1,122 p
L98 Saraf Amra North Darfur 1,577 0% 203,085 0% 6.9 29,433 128.8 no 0 0 no gri d 1,015 p
L99 Al Serai f North Darfur 6,617 0% 156,985 0% 5.5 28,543 23.7 no 0 0 no gri d 1,115 p
L100 Kebkabi ya North Darfur 4,436 0% 191,414 22% 5.1 37,532 43.2 no 0 0 no gri d 1,112 p
L101 Kutum North Darfur 14,270 1% 150,687 23% 5.1 29,546 10.6 no 0 0 no gri d 1,187 p
L102 Al Koma North Darfur 7,994 0% 69,198 0% 7.7 8,987 8.7 no 0 0 no gri d 1,127 p
L103 Al Fashi r North Darfur 11,814 1% 504,080 43% 5.4 93,348 42.7 no 1 368 3.1% 977 c
L104 Um Kadadah North Darfur 13,672 1% 93,392 12% 5.3 17,621 6.8 no 0 0 no gri d 585 p
L105 Kal mendo North Darfur 7,252 0% 72,635 0% 5.2 13,968 10.0 no 0 0 no gri d 685 p
L106 Al Tewai sha & Al LaateNorth Darfur 13,843 1% 138,881 7% 5.8 23,945 10.0 no 0 0 no gri d 485 p
L107 Al Waha North Darfur 32,000 2% 231,890 0% 5.1 45,469 7.2 no 0 0 no gri d 1,190 p
L108 Kol bus West Darfur 7,043 0% 112,340 0% 5.8 19,369 16.0 no 0 0 no gri d 1,130 p
L109 Sarba West Darfur 2,027 0% 87,293 0% 4.6 18,977 43.1 no 0 0 no gri d 1,130 p
L110 Kraneck West Darfur 5,969 0% 99,703 0% 4.4 22,660 16.7 no 0 0 no gri d 1,130 p
L111 Al Genena West Darfur 2,834 0% 252,744 75% 5.0 50,549 89.2 no 1 208 7.3% 1,060 c
L112 Bedha West Darfur 1,891 0% 70,585 0% 4.4 16,042 37.3 no 0 0 no gri d 1,160 p
L113 Habi l a West Darfur 3,195 0% 132,045 0% 4.6 28,705 41.3 no 0 0 no gri d 1,260 p
L114 Azome West Darfur 2,395 0% 61,283 0% 4.7 13,039 25.6 no 0 0 no gri d 1,015 p
L115 Zal i nge West Darfur 6,311 0% 101,052 36% 5.1 19,814 16.0 no 0 0 no gri d 915 c
L116 Nertati West Darfur 2,417 0% 23,059 0% 4.8 4,804 9.5 no 0 0 no gri d 1,065 p
L117 Wadi Sal i h West Darfur 8,995 0% 183,043 0% 4.9 37,356 20.3 no 0 0 no gri d 995 p
L118 Makjar West Darfur 6,403 0% 101,265 0% 4.4 23,015 15.8 no 0 0 no gri d 1,095 p
L119 Um Dukhun West Darfur 2,804 0% 83,813 0% 5.1 16,434 29.9 no 0 0 no gri d 1,195 p
L120 Sheari ya South Darfur 12,592 1% 266,826 18% 5.9 45,225 21.2 no 0 0 no gri d 785 p
L121 Neyal a South Darfur 5,700 0% 629,971 78% 5.9 106,775 110.5 no 1 416 7.3% 710 c
L122 Sharg Al Jabal South Darfur 2,934 0% 11,953 0% 5.3 2,255 4.1 no 0 0 no gri d 810 p
L123 Kass South Darfur 5,540 0% 252,563 22% 5.2 48,570 45.6 no 0 0 no gri d 805 c
L124 Edd Al Fursan South Darfur 10,410 1% 522,649 2% 5.2 100,509 50.2 no 0 0 no gri d 790 p
L125 Al Sal am (SD) South Darfur 7,586 0% 181,192 1% 5.2 34,845 23.9 no 0 0 no gri d 800 p
L126 Al Duane South Darfur 8,832 0% 400,264 34% 5.8 69,011 45.3 no 1 174 2.0% 530 c
L127 Adi l a South Darfur 6,379 0% 344,080 0% 7.8 44,113 53.9 no 0 0 no gri d 430 c
L128 Tol us South Darfur 3,937 0% 412,979 10% 6.5 63,535 104.9 no 0 0 no gri d 875 p
L129 Rehade Al Berdi South Darfur 13,013 1% 266,023 9% 5.6 47,504 20.4 no 0 0 no gri d 860 p
L130 Burram South Darfur 36,115 2% 497,383 13% 6.6 75,361 13.8 no 0 0 no gri d 895 p
L131 Bahr Al Arab South Darfur 1,575 0% 307,711 1% 5.5 55,947 195.3 no 0 0 no gri d 630 p
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Annex 6
Annex 6
Results demand forecast
Demand forecast moderate sce-
nario
Demand forecast base scenario
Demand forecast high scenario
Annual balancing of demand and
supply of peak load (MW) and en-
ergy (GWh) for moderate, base and
high scenario (2012 to 2031)
Monthly balancing of demand and
supply of peak load (MW) and en-
ergy (GWh) for moderate, base and
high scenario (2012 to 2031)
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Annex 6
Annex 6: Demand forecast moderate scenario national level
Demand scenario Moderate
Year / Peri od 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
TOTAL Sudan
Load factor % 63% 63% 62% 62% 62% 61% 61% 61% 62% 62% 62% 63% 63% 63% 63% 63% 63% 63% 63% 63%
Peak load (sent-out) MW 1,698 1,914 2,146 2,398 2,671 3,317 3,563 3,768 3,964 4,172 4,385 4,589 4,791 5,034 5,277 5,516 5,761 6,008 6,257 6,510
Growth MW 215 217 231 252 274 646 245 205 196 208 212 204 202 243 243 239 245 247 249 253
% 14% 13% 12% 12% 11% 24% 7% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Generation (sent-out) GWh/a 9,369 10,509 11,716 13,023 14,431 17,824 19,038 20,245 21,416 22,662 23,942 25,192 26,441 27,781 29,121 30,441 31,794 33,159 34,534 35,928
Growth GWh/a 1,239 1,140 1,207 1,307 1,408 3,393 1,214 1,207 1,171 1,246 1,280 1,251 1,249 1,340 1,340 1,320 1,354 1,364 1,375 1,395
% 15% 12% 11% 11% 11% 24% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Losses Transmi ss i on % 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
GWh 468 525 586 651 722 891 952 1,012 1,071 1,133 1,197 1,260 1,322 1,389 1,456 1,522 1,590 1,658 1,727 1,796
Di stri buti on % 13% 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12%
GWh 1,168 1,282 1,398 1,519 1,645 2,032 2,170 2,308 2,441 2,583 2,729 2,872 3,014 3,167 3,320 3,470 3,625 3,780 3,937 4,096
Connections Total # 1927821 2160352 2410830 2706621 2990247 3241622 3469080 3677872 3879821 4098428 4322116 4526026 4720158 4932926 5137063 5325487 5514615 5699980 5881812 6062412
Growth % 14.2% 12.1% 11.6% 12.3% 10.5% 8.4% 7.0% 6.0% 5.5% 5.6% 5.5% 4.7% 4.3% 4.5% 4.1% 3.7% 3.6% 3.4% 3.2% 3.1%
Domesti c # 1690422 1901286 2127701 2390003 2641941 2867114 3069526 3254343 3430106 3620190 3814079 3993029 4165037 4353518 4534242 4700800 4868034 5031853 5192463 5351953
Growth % 14.7% 12.5% 11.9% 12.3% 10.5% 8.5% 7.1% 6.0% 5.4% 5.5% 5.4% 4.7% 4.3% 4.5% 4.2% 3.7% 3.6% 3.4% 3.2% 3.1%
# 217235 210864 226415 262303 251938 225173 202412 184817 175763 190084 193890 178950 172007 188482 180724 166558 167233 163819 160610 159490
Share of Total % 88% 88% 88% 88% 88% 88% 88% 88% 88% 88% 88% 88% 88% 88% 88% 88% 88% 88% 88% 88%
El ectri fi cati on % 31% 34% 37% 40% 43% 46% 48% 49% 51% 52% 53% 55% 56% 57% 58% 59% 60% 60% 61% 62%
I ndus tri al # 1507.62 1608.24 1708.85 1809.47 1911.29 2018.11 2119.93 2224.14 2328.36 2432.58 2536.8 2641.02 2745.24 2849.45 2953.67 3057.89 3162.11 3266.33 3370.54 3474.76
Growth % 7.2% 6.7% 6.3% 5.9% 5.6% 5.6% 5.0% 4.9% 4.7% 4.5% 4.3% 4.1% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1%
Share of Total % 0.08% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06%
Commerci al # 186075 201972 219853 245450 269696 289612 308568 326514 346398 368685 392350 411424 427703 445486 462644 478708 494846 510721 526344 541880
Growth % 9.7% 8.5% 8.9% 11.6% 9.9% 7.4% 6.5% 5.8% 6.1% 6.4% 6.4% 4.9% 4.0% 4.2% 3.9% 3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0%
Share of Total % 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%
Agri cul tural # 12632.7 14959.1 17314.4 19691.6 22048.9 24337.1 26601.8 28851.3 31103.2 33359.9 35618.4 37869.1 40121 42406.4 44680.1 46933 49188.3 51438.6 53683.6 55926.8
Growth % 22.6% 18.4% 15.7% 13.7% 12.0% 10.4% 9.3% 8.5% 7.8% 7.3% 6.8% 6.3% 5.9% 5.7% 5.4% 5.0% 4.8% 4.6% 4.4% 4.2%
Share of Total % 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
Governmental # 37184.1 40526.3 44253.5 49666.3 54650.4 58540.9 62264.2 65940.1 69885.1 73760.9 77531.6 81062.4 84552.3 88665.8 92543.2 95987.7 99385.2 102702 105951 109177
Growth % 10.4% 9.0% 9.2% 12.2% 10.0% 7.1% 6.4% 5.9% 6.0% 5.5% 5.1% 4.6% 4.3% 4.9% 4.4% 3.7% 3.5% 3.3% 3.2% 3.0%
Share of Total % 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%
Consumption (billed) Total GWh/a 7,733 8,702 9,732 10,853 12,064 14,901 15,916 16,925 17,904 18,945 20,015 21,061 22,105 23,225 24,345 25,448 26,580 27,721 28,870 30,036
Growth % 15.6% 12.5% 11.8% 11.5% 11.2% 23.5% 6.8% 6.3% 5.8% 5.8% 5.6% 5.2% 5.0% 5.1% 4.8% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.1% 4.0%
Domesti c GWh/a 4,064 4,588 5,139 5,731 6,350 6,897 7,366 7,802 8,185 8,606 9,033 9,436 9,828 10,248 10,656 11,041 11,433 11,817 12,194 12,569
Growth % 18.3% 12.9% 12.0% 11.5% 10.8% 8.6% 6.8% 5.9% 4.9% 5.1% 5.0% 4.5% 4.1% 4.3% 4.0% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 3.1%
Share of Total % 53% 53% 53% 53% 53% 46% 46% 46% 46% 45% 45% 45% 44% 44% 44% 43% 43% 43% 42% 42%
I ndus tri al GWh/a 1,208 1,376 1,554 1,744 1,945 3,895 4,103 4,323 4,552 4,791 5,040 5,298 5,566 5,845 6,132 6,430 6,738 7,055 7,382 7,719
Growth % 15.2% 13.9% 13.0% 12.2% 11.5% 100.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.2% 5.2% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.6% 4.6%
Share of Total % 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 26% 26% 26% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 26% 26%
Commerci al GWh/a 1,151 1,286 1,433 1,602 1,789 1,962 2,135 2,311 2,501 2,704 2,919 3,126 3,330 3,551 3,777 4,006 4,242 4,483 4,729 4,981
Growth % 13.3% 11.7% 11.4% 11.8% 11.7% 9.6% 8.9% 8.2% 8.2% 8.1% 8.0% 7.1% 6.5% 6.6% 6.4% 6.0% 5.9% 5.7% 5.5% 5.3%
Share of Total % 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 13% 13% 14% 14% 14% 15% 15% 15% 15% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 17%
Agri cul tural GWh/a 349 406 469 539 610 682 758 838 921 1,006 1,094 1,185 1,279 1,378 1,480 1,584 1,692 1,803 1,917 2,035
Growth % 13.3% 16.4% 15.5% 14.7% 13.3% 11.9% 11.0% 10.6% 9.9% 9.3% 8.7% 8.3% 8.0% 7.7% 7.4% 7.1% 6.8% 6.6% 6.3% 6.1%
Share of Total % 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7%
Governmental GWh/a 961 1,046 1,137 1,237 1,371 1,464 1,554 1,651 1,746 1,839 1,929 2,015 2,101 2,202 2,299 2,388 2,476 2,562 2,647 2,732
Growth % 9.2% 8.8% 8.7% 8.8% 10.8% 6.8% 6.1% 6.2% 5.7% 5.3% 4.9% 4.5% 4.3% 4.8% 4.4% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.3% 3.2%
Share of Total % 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%
Coverage Popul ati on Mi l l i on 35.1 36.2 37.3 38.4 39.6 40.8 42.0 43.0 44.1 45.2 46.3 47.5 48.6 49.7 50.8 52.0 53.1 54.2 55.3 56.5
Growth % 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.4% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0%
Urban popul ati on Mi l l i on 12.3 12.9 13.6 14.2 15.0 15.7 16.5 17.3 18.2 19.1 20.0 21.0 22.1 23.2 24.4 25.6 26.9 28.2 29.6 31.1
Share % 35.1% 35.7% 36.4% 37.1% 37.8% 38.5% 39.3% 40.3% 41.2% 42.2% 43.2% 44.3% 45.5% 46.7% 47.9% 49.2% 50.6% 52.0% 53.5% 55.1%
Rural popul ati on # 22.8 23.2 23.7 24.2 24.6 25.1 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.4
Househol ds Mi l l i on 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.3 8.5 8.7
Househol ds connected Mi l l i on 1.69042 1.90129 2.1277 2.39 2.64194 2.86711 3.06953 3.25434 3.43011 3.62019 3.81408 3.99303 4.16504 4.35352 4.53424 4.7008 4.86803 5.03185 5.19246 5.35195
El ectri fi cati on rati o (gri d connected) % 31.3% 34.2% 37.1% 40.4% 43.4% 45.7% 47.5% 49.2% 50.6% 52.0% 53.5% 54.7% 55.7% 56.9% 58.0% 58.8% 59.6% 60.3% 61.0% 61.6%
Area
States connected # 11 11 11 12 13 13 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
% 73% 73% 73% 80% 87% 87% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Local i ti es connected # 57 58 66 81 90 91 95 97 102 106 111 112 116 126 128 128 131 131 131 131
% 44% 44% 50% 61% 69% 69% 72% 74% 78% 81% 85% 85% 89% 96% 98% 98% 100% 100% 100% 100%
18.10.2012
260690
Annex 6
Annex 6: Demand forecast moderate scenario state level
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
North State Consumpti on (bi l l ed) GWh/a 199 227 255 283 312 343 375 408 442 478 515 554 594 635 678 721 767 813 861 910
Annual i ncreas % 16.5% 14.1% 12.1% 11.0% 10.4% 9.8% 9.3% 8.9% 8.5% 8.1% 7.8% 7.5% 7.2% 6.9% 6.7% 6.5% 6.3% 6.1% 5.9% 5.7%
Share of Total % 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Load at s ystem peak (power pl ant s ent out) MW 61 69 77 85 94 103 112 122 133 144 155 166 178 191 203 217 230 244 258 273
Ri ver Ni l e Consumpti on (bi l l ed) GWh/a 426 473 528 587 644 1229 1269 1309 1350 1391 1433 1476 1519 1562 1606 1650 1695 1741 1787 1833
Annual i ncreas % 12.8% 11.0% 11.6% 11.3% 9.6% 90.9% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6%
Share of Total % 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
Red Sea Consumpti on (bi l l ed) GWh/a 263 311 360 414 471 1711 1761 1811 1861 1911 1961 2012 2063 2115 2166 2218 2284 2346 2401 2454
Annual i ncreas % 28.7% 18.3% 15.6% 14.9% 13.9% 262.8% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 3.0% 2.7% 2.4% 2.2%
Share of Total % 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8%
Kass al a Consumpti on (bi l l ed) GWh/a 161 176 206 246 286 313 331 348 364 381 398 415 433 450 468 486 505 523 542 561
Annual i ncreas % 5.1% 9.0% 17.1% 19.3% 16.5% 9.3% 5.9% 5.0% 4.8% 4.6% 4.5% 4.3% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5%
Share of Total % 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Al Gadari f Consumpti on (bi l l ed) GWh/a 146 179 222 268 306 338 369 400 431 463 495 528 560 593 627 660 694 728 762 797
Annual i ncreas % 38.3% 23.1% 24.1% 20.5% 14.0% 10.5% 9.1% 8.5% 7.9% 7.4% 6.9% 6.5% 6.2% 5.9% 5.6% 5.4% 5.1% 4.9% 4.7% 4.6%
Share of Total % 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Khartoum Consumpti on (bi l l ed) GWh/a 5082 5691 6315 6953 7565 8192 8766 9307 9817 10369 10934 11513 12106 12726 13361 14010 14673 15350 16042 16748
Annual i ncreas % 13.9% 12.0% 11.0% 10.1% 8.8% 8.3% 7.0% 6.2% 5.5% 5.6% 5.5% 5.3% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0% 4.9% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5% 4.4%
Share of Total % 66% 65% 65% 64% 63% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 56% 56%
Al Gezi ra Consumpti on (bi l l ed) GWh/a 702 795 886 978 1071 1165 1259 1354 1450 1546 1643 1741 1840 1940 2040 2141 2243 2346 2449 2553
Annual i ncreas % 26.3% 13.2% 11.5% 10.4% 9.5% 8.7% 8.1% 7.5% 7.1% 6.7% 6.3% 6.0% 5.7% 5.4% 5.2% 5.0% 4.8% 4.6% 4.4% 4.3%
Share of Total % 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
Whi te Ni l e Consumpti on (bi l l ed) GWh/a 220 244 275 309 343 373 401 429 458 487 517 547 578 609 641 674 708 742 776 811
Annual i ncreas % 12.6% 10.9% 12.6% 12.4% 11.1% 8.8% 7.5% 6.9% 6.6% 6.4% 6.1% 5.9% 5.7% 5.5% 5.3% 5.1% 5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5%
Share of Total % 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Si nnar Consumpti on (bi l l ed) GWh/a 223 242 262 283 303 325 347 369 392 415 439 464 488 514 539 566 592 620 647 676
Annual i ncreas % 21.4% 8.8% 8.3% 7.8% 7.4% 7.1% 6.7% 6.5% 6.2% 6.0% 5.7% 5.5% 5.3% 5.2% 5.0% 4.9% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5% 4.4%
Share of Total % 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Bl ue Ni l e Consumpti on (bi l l ed) GWh/a 72 85 99 116 150 176 194 209 225 242 259 276 293 311 330 348 368 387 407 427
Annual i ncreas % 31.3% 18.1% 15.8% 17.9% 28.8% 17.2% 10.2% 8.1% 7.6% 7.3% 6.9% 6.6% 6.4% 6.1% 5.9% 5.7% 5.5% 5.3% 5.2% 5.0%
Share of Total % 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%
North Kordufan Consumpti on (bi l l ed) GWh/a 135 160 193 249 291 322 362 419 475 515 547 578 609 640 672 705 738 771 805 839
Annual i ncreas % 30.1% 18.9% 20.8% 29.0% 16.6% 10.5% 12.6% 15.8% 13.2% 8.5% 6.2% 5.6% 5.4% 5.2% 5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3%
Share of Total % 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
South Kordufan Consumpti on (bi l l ed) GWh/a 3 3 3 25 144 164 169 172 199 218 226 230 235 240 245 250 255 261 266 272
Annual i ncreas % 17.4% 15.5% 14.0% 628.8% 470.8% 13.9% 2.8% 2.2% 15.5% 9.3% 3.7% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.2%
Share of Total % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
North Darfur Consumpti on (bi l l ed) GWh/a 40 45 49 53 58 62 80 99 111 125 137 146 160 208 245 262 281 295 305 314
Annual i ncreas % 12.2% 11.0% 10.0% 9.2% 8.4% 7.9% 28.2% 24.1% 11.9% 11.9% 10.2% 6.7% 9.4% 30.1% 17.5% 6.8% 7.2% 5.2% 3.4% 2.8%
Share of Total % 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0%
West Darfur Consumpti on (bi l l ed) GWh/a 11 14 17 20 23 26 34 68 78 84 90 106 129 170 203 220 228 235 243 250
Annual i ncreas % 38.2% 27.9% 22.0% 18.2% 15.5% 13.5% 30.2% 97.1% 14.0% 7.9% 7.1% 17.8% 22.4% 31.9% 19.4% 8.0% 3.8% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1%
Share of Total % 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
South Darfur Consumpti on (bi l l ed) GWh/a 50 56 62 68 95 163 199 222 250 321 421 475 497 510 523 536 550 563 577 591
Annual i ncreas % 12.7% 11.6% 10.7% 10.0% 40.8% 70.6% 22.5% 11.3% 12.8% 28.2% 31.1% 13.0% 4.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4%
Share of Total % 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Sudan West (Darfur, Kordufan) Consumpti on (bi l l ed) GWh/a 238 277 324 416 612 738 845 981 1113 1261 1420 1535 1630 1769 1889 1973 2052 2126 2197 2266
Annual i ncreas % 23.0% 16.4% 17.0% 28.2% 47.0% 20.6% 14.6% 16.1% 13.4% 13.4% 12.6% 8.1% 6.2% 8.5% 6.8% 4.4% 4.0% 3.6% 3.3% 3.2%
Share of Total % 3% 3% 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
Sudan Consumpti on (bi l l ed) GWh/a 7733 8702 9732 10853 12064 14901 15916 16925 17904 18945 20015 21061 22105 23225 24345 25448 26580 27721 28870 30036
Annual i ncreas % 16.2% 12.5% 11.8% 11.5% 11.2% 23.5% 6.8% 6.3% 5.8% 5.8% 5.6% 5.2% 5.0% 5.1% 4.8% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.1% 4.0%
Share of Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Electrification - overall (grid connected and off grid/rural) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
North State 78% 79% 80% 81% 81% 81% 82% 82% 82% 83% 83% 83% 84% 84% 84% 85% 85% 85% 85% 86%
gri d connected 78% 79% 80% 81% 81% 81% 82% 82% 82% 83% 83% 83% 84% 84% 84% 85% 85% 85% 85% 86%
off gri d (rural ) - target 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Ri ver Ni l e 59% 61% 66% 70% 73% 75% 77% 79% 80% 82% 84% 85% 87% 88% 89% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95%
gri d connected 59% 61% 66% 70% 73% 75% 77% 79% 80% 82% 84% 85% 87% 88% 89% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95%
Red Sea 22% 26% 30% 35% 39% 43% 47% 50% 54% 57% 60% 63% 66% 69% 72% 75% 79% 82% 85% 87%
gri d connected 22% 26% 30% 35% 39% 43% 47% 50% 54% 57% 60% 63% 66% 69% 72% 75% 79% 82% 85% 87%
Kass al a 17% 19% 23% 27% 31% 34% 36% 38% 40% 42% 44% 46% 47% 49% 51% 53% 54% 56% 58% 60%
gri d connected 15% 16% 18% 21% 24% 25% 26% 26% 26% 27% 27% 27% 28% 28% 28% 28% 29% 29% 29% 29%
Al Gadari f 22% 26% 31% 35% 38% 41% 42% 44% 46% 48% 49% 51% 52% 53% 55% 56% 57% 58% 59% 60%
gri d connected 21% 25% 30% 35% 38% 39% 41% 43% 45% 46% 47% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 54% 55% 56%
Khartoum 73% 79% 84% 88% 92% 95% 96% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 98% 98%
gri d connected 73% 79% 84% 88% 92% 95% 96% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 98% 98%
Al Gezi ra 42% 47% 50% 54% 57% 60% 63% 66% 69% 71% 74% 76% 78% 80% 82% 84% 85% 87% 88% 90%
gri d connected 42% 47% 50% 54% 57% 60% 63% 66% 69% 71% 74% 76% 78% 80% 82% 84% 85% 87% 88% 90%
Whi te Ni l e 18% 21% 24% 27% 30% 33% 35% 37% 39% 41% 43% 45% 47% 49% 51% 53% 54% 56% 58% 60%
gri d connected 17% 18% 20% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 26% 27% 28% 28% 29% 29% 29% 30% 30% 31% 31% 31%
Si nnar 30% 32% 34% 36% 37% 39% 41% 42% 44% 46% 47% 49% 50% 52% 53% 54% 56% 57% 58% 60%
gri d connected 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 33% 34% 35% 36% 36% 37% 37% 38% 38% 39% 39% 40% 40% 41% 41%
Bl ue Ni l e 11% 14% 17% 20% 26% 30% 33% 35% 38% 40% 42% 44% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 56% 58% 60%
gri d connected 10% 12% 13% 15% 20% 22% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 28% 29% 30% 31% 31% 32% 33% 33% 34%
North Kordufan 8% 11% 14% 18% 21% 24% 27% 31% 34% 37% 40% 42% 44% 46% 49% 51% 53% 55% 58% 60%
gri d connected 7% 8% 10% 13% 15% 17% 18% 21% 24% 25% 26% 27% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36%
South Kordufan 3% 6% 8% 17% 24% 27% 29% 31% 35% 38% 41% 43% 45% 47% 49% 51% 53% 55% 58% 60%
gri d connected 1% 1% 1% 7% 12% 13% 13% 13% 14% 15% 15% 15% 14% 14% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13%
North Darfur 6% 8% 10% 13% 15% 17% 21% 23% 26% 29% 32% 34% 37% 42% 47% 50% 53% 55% 58% 60%
gri d connected 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 12% 13% 17% 20% 21% 22% 23% 23% 24%
West Darfur 4% 7% 9% 12% 14% 17% 20% 24% 27% 29% 31% 35% 38% 44% 48% 51% 53% 56% 58% 60%
gri d connected 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 7% 8% 8% 8% 10% 11% 15% 17% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18%
South Darfur 5% 7% 10% 12% 15% 19% 23% 25% 28% 33% 38% 42% 44% 47% 49% 51% 53% 55% 58% 60%
gri d connected 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 5% 7% 7% 8% 10% 13% 14% 15% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14%
Sudan 2012 - 2021 32% 36% 40% 44% 48% 51% 54% 57% 59% 61% 64% 66% 68% 70% 72% 74% 75% 77% 79% 80%
gri d connected 31% 34% 37% 40% 43% 46% 48% 49% 51% 52% 53% 55% 56% 57% 58% 59% 60% 60% 61% 62%
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260690
Annex 6
Annex 6: Demand forecast base scenario national level
Demand scenario Base
Year / Peri od 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
TOTAL Sudan
Load factor % 63% 63% 62% 62% 62% 61% 61% 61% 62% 62% 62% 63% 63% 63% 63% 63% 63% 63% 63% 63%
Growth MW 282 282 300 352 311 676 306 281 262 265 254 249 235 261 263 268 267 271 277 282
% 19% 16% 15% 15% 12% 22% 8% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Growth GWh/a 1,612 1,499 1,578 1,843 1,600 3,545 1,525 1,624 1,539 1,570 1,525 1,512 1,452 1,440 1,453 1,481 1,476 1,497 1,529 1,559
% 20% 15% 14% 14% 11% 22% 8% 8% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Losses Transmi ss i on % 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
GWh 487 562 641 733 813 990 1,067 1,148 1,225 1,303 1,380 1,455 1,528 1,600 1,672 1,746 1,820 1,895 1,972 2,050
Di stri buti on % 13% 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12%
GWh 1,214 1,371 1,530 1,710 1,854 2,258 2,432 2,617 2,793 2,972 3,145 3,318 3,483 3,647 3,813 3,982 4,150 4,321 4,495 4,673
Growth % 20.2% 16.1% 16.1% 15.4% 11.3% 8.8% 7.8% 8.2% 6.9% 6.3% 5.4% 4.7% 3.9% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6%
Domesti c # 1782093 2078714 2417506 2785134 3093297 3363467 3621822 3912004 4174223 4436727 4676199 4898925 5087954 5253165 5414445 5574879 5727202 5877741 6029272 6181029
Growth % 21.0% 16.6% 16.3% 15.2% 11.1% 8.7% 7.7% 8.0% 6.7% 6.3% 5.4% 4.8% 3.9% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5%
# 308906 296620 338792 367629 308163 270170 258355 290182 262219 262504 239472 222725 189029 165211 161280 160434 152323 150539 151531 151757
Share of Total % 88% 88% 88% 88% 88% 88% 88% 88% 87% 87% 87% 88% 87% 87% 87% 87% 87% 87% 87% 87%
I ndus tri al # 1507.62 1608.24 1708.85 1811.13 1913.41 2020.69 2126.3 2231.9 2337.5 2443.11 2548.71 2654.31 2759.92 2865.52 2971.13 3076.73 3182.33 3287.94 3393.54 3499.14
Growth % 7.2% 6.7% 6.3% 6.0% 5.6% 5.6% 5.2% 5.0% 4.7% 4.5% 4.3% 4.1% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1%
Share of Total % 0.07% 0.07% 0.06% 0.06% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05%
Commerci al # 193154 215519 246783 288170 327485 358559 388571 428998 465227 494275 518100 540693 561848 583357 604582 625825 647114 668404 689844 711296
Growth % 13.9% 11.6% 14.5% 16.8% 13.6% 9.5% 8.4% 10.4% 8.4% 6.2% 4.8% 4.4% 3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1%
Share of Total % 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
Agri cul tural # 13554.5 16852.3 20238.9 23660.5 26962.3 30137.2 33270.4 36413.3 39553.4 42729.6 45898 49047.4 52171.7 55284 58390.5 61496.9 64603.4 67709.8 70816.3 73922.7
Growth % 31.6% 24.3% 20.1% 16.9% 14.0% 11.8% 10.4% 9.4% 8.6% 8.0% 7.4% 6.9% 6.4% 6.0% 5.6% 5.3% 5.1% 4.8% 4.6% 4.4%
Share of Total % 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Governmental # 38724.1 43469.3 50221.6 58784.9 66173.2 72286.7 78239.9 84516 90338.7 96452.1 102186 107303 111844 116318 120715 125118 129532 133945 138381 142825
Growth % 15.0% 12.3% 15.5% 17.1% 12.6% 9.2% 8.2% 8.0% 6.9% 6.8% 5.9% 5.0% 4.2% 4.0% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2%
Share of Total % 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Growth % 20.2% 15.8% 14.4% 14.7% 11.3% 21.8% 7.7% 7.6% 6.7% 6.4% 5.9% 5.5% 5.0% 4.7% 4.5% 4.4% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0%
Domesti c GWh/a 4,281 5,012 5,770 6,593 7,231 7,790 8,362 8,966 9,499 10,048 10,560 11,052 11,486 11,877 12,259 12,641 12,994 13,343 13,694 14,046
Growth % 24.6% 17.1% 15.1% 14.3% 9.7% 7.7% 7.3% 7.2% 5.9% 5.8% 5.1% 4.7% 3.9% 3.4% 3.2% 3.1% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6%
Share of Total % 53% 54% 54% 54% 53% 47% 47% 47% 46% 46% 46% 45% 45% 44% 44% 43% 43% 42% 42% 41%
I ndus tri al GWh/a 1,208 1,376 1,554 1,745 1,968 3,898 4,109 4,330 4,561 4,802 5,053 5,313 5,584 5,865 6,155 6,456 6,766 7,087 7,417 7,757
Growth % 15.2% 13.9% 13.0% 12.3% 12.8% 98.1% 5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 5.3% 5.2% 5.2% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.6%
Share of Total % 15% 15% 15% 14% 14% 24% 23% 23% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 23% 23%
Commerci al GWh/a 1,189 1,363 1,557 1,813 2,066 2,302 2,540 2,822 3,101 3,367 3,624 3,888 4,155 4,439 4,731 5,032 5,341 5,659 5,986 6,322
Growth % 17.1% 14.6% 14.2% 16.4% 14.0% 11.4% 10.4% 11.1% 9.9% 8.6% 7.7% 7.3% 6.9% 6.8% 6.6% 6.4% 6.1% 6.0% 5.8% 5.6%
Share of Total % 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 14% 14% 15% 15% 15% 16% 16% 16% 17% 17% 17% 18% 18% 18% 18%
Agri cul tural GWh/a 365 441 526 622 720 818 921 1,027 1,136 1,250 1,368 1,491 1,618 1,748 1,884 2,024 2,168 2,317 2,471 2,630
Growth % 18.6% 20.6% 19.3% 18.1% 15.8% 13.7% 12.6% 11.5% 10.6% 10.0% 9.5% 9.0% 8.5% 8.1% 7.7% 7.4% 7.1% 6.9% 6.6% 6.4%
Share of Total % 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8%
Governmental GWh/a 997 1,116 1,242 1,446 1,611 1,751 1,902 2,046 2,182 2,325 2,461 2,587 2,701 2,819 2,934 3,049 3,165 3,280 3,396 3,512
Growth % 13.3% 11.9% 11.2% 16.5% 11.4% 8.7% 8.6% 7.6% 6.6% 6.5% 5.9% 5.1% 4.4% 4.3% 4.1% 3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4%
Share of Total % 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
Growth % 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.4% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0%
Share % 35.1% 35.7% 36.4% 37.1% 37.8% 38.5% 39.3% 40.3% 41.2% 42.2% 43.2% 44.3% 45.5% 46.7% 47.9% 49.2% 50.6% 52.0% 53.5% 55.1%
Area
% 73% 73% 80% 87% 87% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
% 44% 44% 57% 69% 71% 74% 79% 85% 87% 96% 98% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
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Annex 6
Annex 6: Demand forecast base scenario state level
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Annual i ncreas % 22.1% 19.0% 15.5% 13.2% 12.2% 11.4% 10.7% 10.0% 9.5% 9.0% 8.6% 8.2% 7.8% 7.5% 7.2% 6.8% 6.5% 6.3% 6.1% 5.9%
Share of Total % 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Annual i ncreas % 15.0% 12.7% 15.1% 13.4% 10.6% 84.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%
Share of Total % 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
Annual i ncreas % 37.2% 23.4% 19.1% 20.2% 15.7% 218.7% 3.7% 3.6% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.1% 2.7% 2.7% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%
Share of Total % 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8%
Annual i ncreas % 8.3% 11.7% 26.6% 34.9% 20.1% 8.6% 5.0% 4.8% 4.6% 4.5% 4.4% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6%
Share of Total % 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Annual i ncreas % 59.2% 29.6% 32.0% 23.8% 14.7% 10.3% 9.5% 8.7% 8.1% 7.6% 7.1% 6.7% 6.3% 6.0% 5.7% 5.4% 5.2% 5.0% 4.8% 4.6%
Share of Total % 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Annual i ncreas % 17.7% 14.9% 12.3% 9.7% 7.3% 7.0% 6.8% 6.6% 5.9% 6.0% 5.8% 5.6% 5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 5.1% 5.0% 4.9% 4.7% 4.6%
Share of Total % 65% 65% 64% 61% 59% 52% 51% 51% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 51% 51% 51% 52% 52% 52% 53%
Annual i ncreas % 34.2% 17.5% 14.0% 12.4% 11.1% 10.1% 9.2% 8.5% 7.9% 7.4% 6.9% 6.5% 5.0% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2%
Share of Total % 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8%
Annual i ncreas % 16.7% 12.9% 18.0% 17.2% 12.2% 8.7% 7.6% 7.2% 6.9% 6.6% 6.3% 6.0% 5.8% 5.6% 5.4% 5.2% 5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.6%
Share of Total % 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Annual i ncreas % 24.5% 11.2% 10.3% 9.6% 8.9% 8.4% 7.9% 7.5% 7.2% 6.8% 6.5% 6.3% 6.0% 5.8% 5.6% 5.4% 5.2% 5.0% 4.9% 4.7%
Share of Total % 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Annual i ncreas % 37.5% 21.9% 18.4% 43.5% 29.4% 13.9% 7.7% 7.3% 7.0% 6.7% 6.4% 6.1% 5.9% 5.7% 5.5% 5.3% 5.1% 5.0% 4.8% 4.7%
Share of Total % 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.3% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
Annual i ncreas % 38.8% 24.1% 25.9% 37.3% 28.8% 24.1% 18.2% 10.8% 6.7% 5.6% 5.3% 5.1% 5.0% 4.8% 4.6% 4.5% 4.3% 4.2% 4.4% 4.3%
Share of Total % 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Annual i ncreas % 22.8% 19.5% 665.1% 731.9% 35.2% 7.4% 12.6% 10.8% 4.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%
Share of Total % 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.7% 2.1% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4%
Annual i ncreas % 16.8% 14.5% 12.8% 11.4% 10.3% 38.5% 45.4% 20.1% 16.7% 39.0% 27.0% 15.4% 6.9% 3.8% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5%
Share of Total % 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4%
Annual i ncreas % 52.8% 34.8% 26.0% 20.8% 17.4% 69.5% 89.6% 13.4% 24.9% 53.8% 34.1% 13.0% 4.1% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.8%
Share of Total % 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.9% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1%
Annual i ncreas % 16.7% 14.7% 13.2% 58.0% 110.6% 25.9% 16.6% 54.9% 31.7% 10.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%
Share of Total % 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Annual i ncreas % 30.0% 21.0% 28.3% 81.1% 41.0% 22.1% 21.4% 21.6% 15.4% 12.5% 8.7% 5.9% 3.9% 3.2% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%
Share of Total % 3% 3% 4% 6% 7% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
Annual i ncreas % 20.8% 15.8% 14.4% 14.7% 11.3% 21.8% 7.7% 7.6% 6.7% 6.4% 5.9% 5.5% 5.0% 4.7% 4.5% 4.4% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0%
Share of Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
North State 79% 83% 86% 87% 88% 89% 90% 92% 93% 94% 95% 96% 96% 97% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98%
gri d connected 79% 83% 86% 87% 88% 89% 90% 92% 93% 94% 95% 96% 96% 97% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98%
Ri ver Ni l e 60% 65% 73% 80% 85% 88% 91% 94% 97% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98%
gri d connected 60% 65% 73% 80% 85% 88% 91% 94% 97% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98%
Red Sea 24% 30% 35% 42% 48% 54% 59% 64% 68% 72% 76% 82% 87% 91% 95% 98% 99% 99% 99% 99%
gri d connected 24% 30% 35% 42% 48% 54% 59% 64% 68% 72% 76% 82% 87% 91% 95% 98% 99% 99% 99% 99%
Kass al a 17% 19% 24% 32% 37% 40% 41% 43% 44% 46% 47% 49% 50% 52% 53% 54% 56% 57% 59% 60%
gri d connected 16% 17% 21% 28% 32% 33% 34% 34% 35% 35% 36% 36% 36% 36% 37% 37% 37% 38% 38% 38%
Al Gadari f 25% 31% 39% 46% 50% 53% 55% 58% 60% 62% 64% 66% 67% 69% 70% 72% 73% 74% 75% 76%
gri d connected 25% 31% 39% 46% 50% 53% 55% 58% 60% 62% 64% 66% 67% 69% 70% 72% 73% 74% 75% 76%
Khartoum 77% 85% 92% 96% 96% 96% 96% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 98% 98%
gri d connected 77% 85% 92% 96% 96% 96% 96% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 98% 98%
Al Gezi ra 45% 52% 58% 63% 68% 73% 77% 81% 85% 89% 92% 96% 97% 97% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98%
gri d connected 45% 52% 58% 63% 68% 73% 77% 81% 85% 89% 92% 96% 97% 97% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98%
Whi te Ni l e 19% 22% 26% 31% 34% 36% 38% 40% 42% 44% 46% 47% 49% 51% 52% 54% 56% 57% 59% 60%
gri d connected 18% 20% 23% 27% 29% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 35% 36% 37% 38% 38% 39% 39% 40% 41% 41%
Si nnar 30% 33% 35% 37% 39% 41% 42% 44% 46% 47% 49% 50% 52% 53% 54% 55% 57% 58% 59% 60%
gri d connected 30% 32% 34% 35% 37% 38% 39% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 48% 49% 50% 50% 51%
Bl ue Ni l e 12% 15% 17% 25% 33% 36% 38% 40% 42% 44% 46% 48% 49% 51% 52% 54% 56% 57% 59% 60%
gri d connected 11% 13% 15% 22% 29% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 43% 44% 45%
North Kordufan 8% 11% 14% 19% 24% 29% 34% 37% 39% 41% 43% 45% 47% 49% 51% 53% 54% 56% 58% 60%
gri d connected 8% 10% 12% 16% 21% 26% 30% 33% 35% 36% 37% 39% 40% 41% 43% 44% 45% 46% 48% 49%
South Kordufan 3% 5% 13% 25% 32% 35% 39% 42% 45% 46% 47% 49% 50% 51% 53% 54% 56% 57% 59% 60%
gri d connected 1% 1% 8% 18% 23% 24% 26% 28% 28% 27% 27% 26% 26% 25% 25% 24% 24% 24% 23% 23%
North Darfur 5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 16% 20% 23% 27% 34% 41% 46% 49% 51% 53% 54% 56% 57% 59% 60%
gri d connected 4% 5% 6% 6% 7% 9% 12% 14% 17% 23% 29% 33% 34% 35% 35% 36% 36% 36% 37% 37%
West Darfur 4% 6% 8% 11% 13% 18% 21% 24% 28% 36% 44% 48% 50% 51% 53% 54% 56% 57% 58% 60%
gri d connected 2% 3% 4% 4% 5% 8% 10% 11% 13% 20% 26% 29% 29% 29% 29% 29% 29% 28% 28% 28%
South Darfur 4% 7% 9% 12% 18% 21% 25% 33% 40% 44% 45% 47% 48% 50% 52% 53% 55% 57% 58% 60%
gri d connected 3% 3% 3% 5% 8% 10% 11% 18% 23% 25% 24% 24% 24% 24% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 22%
Sudan 2012 - 2021 34% 39% 44% 50% 54% 58% 61% 64% 67% 70% 73% 75% 77% 78% 79% 80% 81% 82% 83% 84%
gri d connected 33% 37% 42% 47% 51% 54% 56% 59% 62% 64% 66% 67% 68% 69% 69% 70% 70% 70% 71% 71%
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260690
Annex 6
Annex 6: Demand forecast high scenario national level
Demand scenario High
Year / Peri od 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
TOTAL Sudan
Load factor % 63% 63% 62% 62% 62% 61% 61% 61% 62% 62% 62% 63% 63% 63% 63% 63% 63% 63% 63% 63%
Growth MW 353 349 344 425 402 780 402 354 298 282 264 249 244 287 293 299 305 311 317 321
% 24% 19% 16% 17% 14% 23% 10% 8% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Growth GWh/a 2,000 1,865 1,817 2,232 2,084 4,092 2,026 2,036 1,755 1,683 1,599 1,535 1,521 1,582 1,615 1,648 1,681 1,716 1,752 1,773
% 25% 18% 15% 16% 13% 23% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Losses Trans mi ss i on % 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
GWh 507 600 691 802 906 1,111 1,212 1,314 1,402 1,486 1,566 1,643 1,719 1,798 1,879 1,961 2,045 2,131 2,218 2,307
Di stri buti on % 13% 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12%
GWh 1,263 1,463 1,648 1,872 2,067 2,533 2,764 2,996 3,196 3,388 3,570 3,745 3,919 4,099 4,283 4,471 4,663 4,858 5,058 5,260
Growth % 26.6% 19.9% 18.6% 17.7% 14.3% 11.1% 10.1% 9.0% 6.1% 4.9% 4.0% 3.4% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5%
Domes ti c # 1879264 2263974 2676918 3135890 3572642 3956394 4342895 4728507 5007855 5249283 5451873 5629323 5795334 5961344 6127354 6293365 6459375 6625692 6793005 6954035
Growth % 27.6% 20.5% 18.2% 17.1% 13.9% 10.7% 9.8% 8.9% 5.9% 4.8% 3.9% 3.3% 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4%
# 406077 384709 412944 458972 436753 383752 386501 385612 279348 241428 202590 177451 166010 166010 166010 166010 166010 166316 167313 161030
Share of Total % 88% 88% 88% 88% 87% 87% 87% 87% 87% 87% 86% 86% 86% 86% 86% 86% 86% 86% 86% 86%
I ndus tri al # 1507.62 1608.24 1708.85 1811.6 1914.34 2026.33 2133.32 2240.3 2347.29 2454.28 2561.27 2668.26 2775.25 2882.24 2989.23 3096.22 3203.2 3310.19 3417.18 3524.17
Growth % 7.2% 6.7% 6.3% 6.0% 5.7% 5.9% 5.3% 5.0% 4.8% 4.6% 4.4% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1%
Share of Total % 0.07% 0.06% 0.06% 0.05% 0.05% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04%
Commerci al # 200764 229737 277224 339951 397222 452911 513609 566628 604885 635238 662582 688882 714522 741424 768326 795228 822130 849139 876248 903358
Growth % 18.4% 14.4% 20.7% 22.6% 16.8% 14.0% 13.4% 10.3% 6.8% 5.0% 4.3% 4.0% 3.7% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1%
Share of Total % 9% 9% 9% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11%
Agri cul tural # 14486.2 18812.6 23334.7 27830.2 32164.7 36249.3 40282.2 44373.9 48467.1 52523.7 56526.1 60509.5 64479.2 68448.9 72418.6 76388.3 80358 84327.7 88297.4 92267.2
Growth % 40.6% 29.9% 24.0% 19.3% 15.6% 12.7% 11.1% 10.2% 9.2% 8.4% 7.6% 7.0% 6.6% 6.2% 5.8% 5.5% 5.2% 4.9% 4.7% 4.5%
Share of Total % 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%
Governmental # 40392.2 46608.6 56738.4 69153.2 80259.7 89543.8 98695.7 108063 116496 123680 129641 135249 140679 146283 151887 157491 163095 168699 174317 179936
Growth % 19.9% 15.4% 21.7% 21.9% 16.1% 11.6% 10.2% 9.5% 7.8% 6.2% 4.8% 4.3% 4.0% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2%
Share of Total % 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
Growth % 25.0% 18.8% 15.5% 16.5% 13.4% 22.6% 9.1% 8.4% 6.7% 6.0% 5.4% 4.9% 4.6% 4.6% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0%
Domes ti c GWh/a 4,507 5,448 6,267 7,205 8,063 8,863 9,641 10,418 10,994 11,528 11,998 12,402 12,774 13,148 13,522 13,897 14,272 14,649 15,028 15,398
Growth % 31.1% 20.9% 15.0% 15.0% 11.9% 9.9% 8.8% 8.1% 5.5% 4.9% 4.1% 3.4% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5%
Share of Total % 54% 55% 55% 54% 53% 48% 48% 47% 47% 46% 46% 45% 44% 44% 43% 42% 42% 41% 41% 40%
I ndus tri al GWh/a 1,208 1,376 1,554 1,745 1,969 3,902 4,115 4,337 4,570 4,813 5,066 5,329 5,602 5,885 6,179 6,482 6,796 7,119 7,453 7,796
Growth % 15.2% 13.9% 13.0% 12.3% 12.8% 98.2% 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 5.3% 5.2% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0% 4.9% 4.8% 4.8% 4.7% 4.6%
Share of Total % 14% 14% 14% 13% 13% 21% 20% 20% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
Commerci al GWh/a 1,229 1,443 1,698 2,048 2,387 2,726 3,095 3,454 3,780 4,094 4,409 4,731 5,060 5,414 5,780 6,157 6,545 6,944 7,355 7,776
Growth % 21.0% 17.4% 17.7% 20.6% 16.6% 14.2% 13.5% 11.6% 9.4% 8.3% 7.7% 7.3% 6.9% 7.0% 6.8% 6.5% 6.3% 6.1% 5.9% 5.7%
Share of Total % 15% 15% 15% 15% 16% 15% 15% 16% 16% 16% 17% 17% 18% 18% 18% 19% 19% 19% 20% 20%
Agri cul tural GWh/a 382 477 589 711 839 966 1,095 1,228 1,366 1,509 1,656 1,809 1,968 2,132 2,302 2,478 2,660 2,848 3,041 3,241
Growth % 24.1% 24.7% 23.5% 20.9% 17.9% 15.2% 13.3% 12.1% 11.2% 10.5% 9.8% 9.2% 8.8% 8.3% 8.0% 7.6% 7.3% 7.1% 6.8% 6.6%
Share of Total % 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
Governmental GWh/a 1,035 1,189 1,365 1,660 1,897 2,118 2,324 2,534 2,728 2,901 3,051 3,194 3,332 3,479 3,626 3,773 3,920 4,067 4,215 4,362
Growth % 17.7% 14.8% 14.9% 21.6% 14.3% 11.7% 9.7% 9.0% 7.7% 6.3% 5.2% 4.7% 4.3% 4.4% 4.2% 4.1% 3.9% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5%
Share of Total % 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 11% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11%
Growth % 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.4% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0%
Share % 35.1% 35.7% 36.4% 37.1% 37.8% 38.5% 39.3% 40.3% 41.2% 42.2% 43.2% 44.3% 45.5% 46.7% 47.9% 49.2% 50.6% 52.0% 53.5% 55.1%
Area
% 73% 73% 80% 87% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
% 44% 44% 61% 69% 74% 81% 85% 96% 98% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
18.10.2012
260690
Annex 6
Annex 6: Demand forecast high scenario state level
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Annual i ncreas % 27.8% 24.1% 18.9% 14.9% 13.5% 12.2% 11.1% 10.3% 9.7% 9.3% 8.8% 8.4% 8.0% 7.7% 7.4% 7.1% 6.9% 6.6% 6.4% 6.2%
Share of Total % 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4%
Annual i ncreas % 17.2% 14.4% 17.5% 16.3% 12.1% 76.1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8%
Share of Total % 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5%
Annual i ncreas % 45.6% 27.9% 24.4% 22.6% 16.7% 186.7% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 4.8% 4.9% 2.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3%
Share of Total % 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 10% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7%
Annual i ncreas % 11.4% 14.2% 42.7% 44.4% 23.4% 8.5% 4.9% 4.7% 4.6% 4.4% 4.3% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4%
Share of Total % 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Annual i ncreas % 85.1% 32.9% 34.9% 28.8% 17.4% 10.2% 9.3% 8.6% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.6% 6.3% 5.9% 5.7% 5.4% 5.2% 5.0% 4.8% 3.8%
Share of Total % 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Annual i ncreas % 21.6% 17.6% 10.8% 8.1% 7.8% 7.5% 7.3% 7.0% 6.3% 6.3% 6.1% 5.9% 5.7% 5.7% 5.5% 5.4% 5.2% 5.1% 4.9% 4.8%
Share of Total % 65% 64% 62% 57% 54% 48% 47% 46% 46% 46% 47% 47% 47% 48% 48% 49% 49% 50% 50% 50%
Annual i ncreas % 42.9% 21.9% 16.0% 13.9% 12.3% 11.0% 10.0% 9.2% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3%
Share of Total % 10% 10% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
Annual i ncreas % 22.0% 14.6% 20.9% 21.7% 15.3% 9.4% 7.2% 6.9% 6.6% 6.3% 6.0% 5.8% 5.5% 5.3% 5.2% 5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.8% 4.6%
Share of Total % 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Annual i ncreas % 27.7% 13.4% 12.1% 11.1% 10.3% 9.5% 8.9% 8.4% 7.9% 7.5% 7.1% 6.8% 6.5% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 5.5% 5.4% 5.2% 5.0%
Share of Total % 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3%
Annual i ncreas % 43.8% 25.3% 28.1% 49.1% 34.3% 16.3% 7.2% 6.8% 6.5% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 5.5% 5.3% 5.2% 5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.6% 4.4%
Share of Total % 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.4% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
Annual i ncreas % 47.4% 28.6% 55.2% 38.1% 34.4% 25.8% 16.1% 7.4% 5.4% 5.2% 5.0% 4.9% 4.7% 4.6% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8%
Share of Total % 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Annual i ncreas % 28.2% 23.1% 1151.0% 697.4% 33.1% 12.2% 11.4% 6.1% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
Share of Total % 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 2.6% 3.1% 2.8% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9%
Annual i ncreas % 21.3% 17.7% 15.2% 13.3% 49.9% 57.2% 27.0% 56.0% 40.9% 21.9% 8.0% 4.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
Share of Total % 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 1.0% 1.4% 1.9% 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%
Annual i ncreas % 67.3% 40.6% 29.1% 22.7% 88.2% 109.0% 33.1% 62.3% 46.2% 19.1% 4.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%
Share of Total % 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.1% 1.6% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
Annual i ncreas % 20.7% 17.7% 15.4% 117.7% 91.8% 65.9% 56.5% 27.6% 8.3% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%
Share of Total % 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3%
Annual i ncreas % 37.1% 25.2% 51.7% 103.7% 45.3% 34.9% 26.8% 20.5% 12.5% 7.1% 3.9% 3.1% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5%
Share of Total % 3% 3% 4% 8% 10% 11% 13% 14% 15% 15% 15% 14% 14% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13%
Annual i ncreas % 25.6% 18.8% 15.5% 16.5% 13.4% 22.6% 9.1% 8.4% 6.7% 6.0% 5.4% 4.9% 4.6% 4.6% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0%
Share of Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
North State 81% 87% 92% 94% 96% 97% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98%
gri d connected 81% 87% 92% 94% 96% 97% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98%
Ri ver Ni l e 62% 68% 79% 90% 97% 97% 97% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98%
gri d connected 62% 68% 79% 90% 97% 97% 97% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98%
Red Sea 26% 33% 41% 50% 58% 65% 70% 76% 81% 89% 96% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99%
gri d connected 26% 33% 41% 50% 58% 65% 70% 76% 81% 89% 96% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99%
Kass al a 17% 20% 28% 39% 47% 50% 52% 53% 55% 56% 58% 59% 61% 62% 63% 65% 66% 67% 69% 70%
gri d connected 16% 18% 25% 35% 42% 44% 45% 45% 46% 46% 46% 47% 47% 48% 48% 48% 49% 49% 49% 50%
Al Gadari f 29% 37% 48% 58% 65% 69% 71% 75% 78% 80% 83% 85% 87% 89% 91% 92% 94% 96% 97% 97%
gri d connected 29% 37% 48% 58% 65% 69% 71% 75% 78% 80% 83% 85% 87% 89% 91% 92% 94% 96% 97% 97%
Khartoum 80% 92% 96% 96% 96% 96% 96% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 98% 98%
gri d connected 80% 92% 96% 96% 96% 96% 96% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 98% 98%
Al Gezi ra 49% 58% 66% 73% 80% 86% 91% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98%
gri d connected 49% 58% 66% 73% 80% 86% 91% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98%
Whi te Ni l e 20% 24% 29% 36% 41% 44% 46% 49% 51% 52% 54% 56% 58% 60% 62% 63% 65% 66% 68% 70%
gri d connected 19% 22% 26% 32% 36% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 46% 47% 48% 48% 49% 50%
Si nnar 31% 34% 37% 40% 43% 45% 47% 50% 52% 54% 56% 58% 59% 61% 63% 64% 66% 67% 69% 70%
gri d connected 31% 33% 36% 38% 41% 42% 44% 46% 48% 50% 51% 52% 54% 55% 56% 57% 58% 59% 60% 61%
Bl ue Ni l e 12% 16% 20% 31% 41% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 56% 58% 59% 61% 63% 64% 66% 67% 69% 70%
gri d connected 11% 14% 18% 28% 38% 43% 44% 46% 47% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% 56% 57% 58% 59%
North Kordufan 8% 11% 17% 24% 31% 39% 45% 47% 49% 51% 53% 55% 57% 59% 61% 63% 65% 66% 68% 70%
gri d connected 8% 11% 16% 23% 30% 37% 43% 45% 47% 49% 51% 52% 54% 56% 57% 59% 60% 62% 63% 65%
South Kordufan 3% 5% 19% 37% 47% 52% 57% 60% 60% 61% 62% 62% 63% 64% 65% 66% 67% 68% 69% 70%
gri d connected 1% 1% 14% 31% 39% 42% 45% 46% 45% 44% 43% 42% 42% 41% 40% 39% 39% 38% 37% 37%
North Darfur 5% 7% 9% 10% 14% 19% 24% 34% 46% 55% 59% 61% 62% 63% 64% 65% 67% 68% 69% 70%
gri d connected 4% 5% 6% 7% 10% 14% 18% 28% 39% 47% 50% 51% 52% 52% 52% 53% 53% 53% 54% 54%
West Darfur 4% 6% 9% 11% 17% 22% 27% 38% 50% 58% 60% 61% 62% 63% 64% 65% 66% 68% 69% 70%
gri d connected 3% 3% 4% 5% 9% 13% 17% 26% 37% 43% 44% 43% 43% 43% 42% 42% 42% 42% 41% 41%
South Darfur 4% 7% 9% 14% 21% 30% 42% 51% 55% 56% 57% 59% 60% 61% 63% 64% 66% 67% 69% 70%
gri d connected 3% 3% 3% 7% 11% 19% 29% 37% 38% 38% 37% 37% 36% 36% 36% 35% 35% 34% 34% 34%
Sudan 2012 - 2021 35% 42% 48% 55% 62% 67% 71% 76% 79% 81% 83% 84% 85% 86% 87% 88% 89% 90% 91% 92%
gri d connected 35% 41% 47% 53% 59% 63% 67% 72% 74% 75% 76% 77% 78% 78% 78% 79% 79% 79% 80% 80%
16.08.2012
260690
Annex 6
Annex 6: Annual balancing of demand and supply of peak load (MW) and energy (GWh) for moderate, base and high scenario (2012
to 2031)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Avai l abl e capaci ty MW 1,853 2,139 2,374 2,379 2,940 3,474 3,474 3,474 3,474 3,474 3,474 3,474 3,474 3,474 3,474 3,457 3,457 3,017 3,017 3,017
Res erve margi n requi rement (15%)
Moderate scenari o MW 255 287 322 360 401 498 534 565 595 626 658 688 719 755 791 827 864 901 939 977
Base s cenari o MW 265 307 352 405 452 553 599 641 680 720 758 795 830 870 909 949 989 1,030 1,072 1,114
Hi gh scenari o MW 275 328 379 443 503 620 681 734 778 821 860 898 934 977 1,021 1,066 1,112 1,158 1,206 1,254
Peak l oad forecas t (monthl y, sent-out)
Moderate scenari o MW 1,698 1,914 2,146 2,398 2,671 3,317 3,563 3,768 3,964 4,172 4,385 4,589 4,791 5,034 5,277 5,516 5,761 6,008 6,257 6,510
Base s cenari o MW 1,765 2,048 2,348 2,700 3,010 3,687 3,992 4,273 4,535 4,799 5,053 5,302 5,537 5,797 6,061 6,329 6,597 6,868 7,145 7,427
Hi gh scenari o MW 1,836 2,185 2,529 2,954 3,356 4,136 4,537 4,892 5,190 5,472 5,735 5,985 6,228 6,515 6,808 7,106 7,411 7,722 8,039 8,361
Moderate scenari o + res erve margi n MW 1,952 2,202 2,467 2,758 3,072 3,815 4,097 4,333 4,559 4,798 5,042 5,277 5,510 5,789 6,068 6,343 6,625 6,910 7,196 7,487
Base s cenari o + reserve margi n MW 2,030 2,355 2,700 3,105 3,462 4,240 4,591 4,914 5,215 5,519 5,811 6,097 6,367 6,667 6,970 7,278 7,586 7,898 8,217 8,541
Hi gh scenari o + reserve margi n MW 2,111 2,513 2,909 3,397 3,859 4,756 5,218 5,625 5,968 6,293 6,596 6,882 7,163 7,492 7,829 8,172 8,523 8,880 9,245 9,615
Suppl y gap - power
Moderate scenari o MW -99 -63 -94 -379 -132 -341 -623 -859 -1,085 -1,324 -1,568 -1,804 -2,036 -2,315 -2,594 -2,886 -3,168 -3,892 -4,179 -4,469
Base s cenari o MW -177 -216 -326 -726 -522 -766 -1,117 -1,440 -1,741 -2,045 -2,337 -2,623 -2,893 -3,193 -3,496 -3,821 -4,129 -4,881 -5,199 -5,524
Hi gh scenari o MW -257 -374 -535 -1,018 -919 -1,282 -1,744 -2,151 -2,495 -2,819 -3,122 -3,408 -3,689 -4,018 -4,355 -4,715 -5,066 -5,863 -6,228 -6,597
Avai l abl e energy (fi rm, sent-out) GWh 12,792 14,944 16,739 16,783 20,057 24,136 24,136 24,136 24,136 24,136 24,136 24,136 24,136 24,136 24,136 24,004 24,004 20,604 20,604 20,604
Forecas t energy consumpti on (monthl y, s ent-out)
Moderate scenari o GWh 9,369 10,509 11,716 13,023 14,431 17,824 19,038 20,245 21,416 22,662 23,942 25,192 26,441 27,781 29,121 30,441 31,794 33,159 34,534 35,928
Base s cenari o GWh 9,742 11,241 12,819 14,662 16,262 19,808 21,333 22,957 24,496 26,066 27,592 29,104 30,555 31,995 33,448 34,929 36,405 37,902 39,431 40,990
Hi gh scenari o GWh 10,130 11,995 13,812 16,043 18,128 22,220 24,245 26,282 28,036 29,719 31,318 32,853 34,374 35,956 37,571 39,219 40,900 42,616 44,368 46,141
Suppl y gap - energy
Moderate scenari o GWh 3,423 4,435 5,023 3,760 5,627 6,312 5,098 3,891 2,720 1,474 194 -1,056 -2,305 -3,645 -4,985 -6,437 -7,791 -12,554 -13,930 -15,324
Base s cenari o GWh 3,050 3,703 3,920 2,121 3,795 4,328 2,803 1,179 -360 -1,930 -3,456 -4,968 -6,419 -7,859 -9,312 -10,926 -12,401 -17,298 -18,827 -20,386
Hi gh scenari o GWh 2,662 2,949 2,927 740 1,930 1,916 -109 -2,146 -3,900 -5,583 -7,182 -8,717 -10,238 -11,820 -13,435 -15,215 -16,897 -22,012 -23,764 -25,537
16.08.2012
260690
Annex 6
Annex 6: Monthly balancing of demand and supply of peak load (MW) and energy (GWh) for moderate, base and high scenario (2012 to 2031)
2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Avai l abl e capaci ty MW 2,280 2,251 2,226 2,155 2,133 2,075 1,973 1,853 2,125 2,349 2,358 2,325 2,553 2,525 2,498 2,422 2,411 2,357 2,258 2,139 2,389 2,588 2,593 2,582 2,788 2,760 2,733 2,657 2,646 2,592 2,493 2,374 2,624 2,823 2,828 2,817 2,796 2,768 2,740 2,665 2,654 2,600 2,500 2,379 2,630 2,831 2,834 2,824 3,312 3,277 3,236 3,141 3,108 3,033 2,918 2,810 3,150 3,353 3,355 3,343
Moderate s cenari o MW 1,346 1,336 1,452 1,542 1,604 1,637 1,626 1,594 1,652 1,696 1,561 1,482 1,517 1,507 1,637 1,739 1,808 1,901 1,780 1,797 1,862 1,912 1,760 1,670 1,718 1,707 1,854 1,970 2,048 2,154 2,016 2,036 2,110 2,166 1,993 1,892 1,926 1,913 2,078 2,208 2,296 2,414 2,260 2,282 2,365 2,428 2,234 2,121 2,121 2,107 2,289 2,431 2,605 2,581 2,489 2,513 2,604 2,674 2,461 2,336
Base scenari o MW 1,399 1,389 1,509 1,603 1,668 1,702 1,691 1,657 1,718 1,764 1,623 1,540 1,622 1,611 1,750 1,859 1,934 2,033 1,903 1,921 1,991 2,045 1,882 1,786 1,884 1,872 2,033 2,160 2,246 2,362 2,211 2,232 2,314 2,376 2,186 2,075 2,150 2,136 2,320 2,465 2,564 2,695 2,523 2,547 2,640 2,711 2,495 2,368 2,385 2,369 2,573 2,734 2,929 2,902 2,799 2,825 2,928 3,007 2,767 2,626
Hi gh scenari o MW 1,454 1,445 1,569 1,667 1,734 1,770 1,758 1,723 1,786 1,834 1,687 1,601 1,730 1,719 1,867 1,983 2,063 2,169 2,030 2,050 2,124 2,181 2,007 1,905 2,033 2,019 2,193 2,330 2,423 2,548 2,385 2,408 2,496 2,563 2,358 2,238 2,360 2,344 2,547 2,706 2,814 2,959 2,770 2,796 2,898 2,976 2,738 2,599 2,675 2,657 2,887 3,067 3,285 3,256 3,139 3,169 3,285 3,373 3,104 2,946
Moderate s cenari o + res erve margi n MW 1,619 1,610 1,726 1,816 1,878 1,911 1,900 1,868 1,926 1,970 1,835 1,755 1,791 1,780 1,910 2,012 2,082 2,175 2,054 2,071 2,136 2,186 2,033 1,944 1,992 1,980 2,128 2,243 2,322 2,428 2,290 2,309 2,383 2,440 2,267 2,166 2,200 2,187 2,352 2,481 2,570 2,688 2,534 2,555 2,639 2,702 2,508 2,395 2,398 2,384 2,566 2,708 2,881 2,858 2,766 2,790 2,881 2,951 2,738 2,613
Base scenari o + reserve margi n MW 1,673 1,663 1,783 1,877 1,941 1,976 1,964 1,931 1,991 2,037 1,897 1,814 1,896 1,885 2,024 2,133 2,207 2,307 2,177 2,195 2,265 2,319 2,155 2,060 2,158 2,145 2,307 2,434 2,520 2,636 2,485 2,506 2,587 2,649 2,460 2,349 2,424 2,410 2,594 2,739 2,837 2,969 2,797 2,821 2,914 2,985 2,768 2,642 2,662 2,646 2,850 3,011 3,205 3,179 3,076 3,102 3,205 3,284 3,044 2,903
Hi gh scenari o + reserve margi n MW 1,728 1,718 1,843 1,941 2,008 2,044 2,032 1,997 2,059 2,107 1,961 1,875 2,004 1,992 2,141 2,257 2,336 2,442 2,304 2,323 2,398 2,455 2,281 2,179 2,306 2,293 2,467 2,604 2,697 2,821 2,659 2,682 2,769 2,836 2,632 2,512 2,634 2,618 2,821 2,979 3,088 3,232 3,044 3,070 3,172 3,250 3,012 2,873 2,952 2,934 3,164 3,344 3,562 3,533 3,416 3,446 3,562 3,650 3,381 3,223
Suppl y gap - power
Moderate s cenari o MW 661 641 501 339 255 164 73 -14 199 379 523 570 762 744 588 410 329 182 204 68 253 402 559 638 796 779 606 414 323 165 203 64 241 383 560 651 596 581 388 184 84 -88 -34 -177 -8 129 326 430 914 894 671 433 226 175 152 21 269 402 617 731
Base scenari o MW 608 588 443 278 192 99 9 -77 134 312 461 511 657 640 475 289 203 51 81 -56 124 269 437 522 630 614 426 224 125 -43 8 -132 37 173 368 468 372 358 146 -74 -184 -370 -297 -442 -284 -154 66 183 650 632 386 130 -98 -146 -157 -292 -55 69 311 440
Hi gh scenari o MW 552 533 383 215 125 32 -58 -143 65 242 396 450 549 533 358 165 74 -85 -46 -185 -9 133 311 403 482 467 266 54 -51 -229 -166 -308 -145 -13 196 305 162 149 -80 -314 -434 -633 -543 -691 -542 -419 -178 -49 360 343 73 -202 -454 -499 -498 -636 -411 -297 -26 120
Avai l abl e energy (fi rm, s ent-out) GWh 1,074 1,028 1,025 981 994 1,056 1,065 1,105 1,092 1,250 1,152 1,093 1,241 1,183 1,242 1,210 1,210 1,184 1,195 1,274 1,258 1,397 1,303 1,251 1,391 1,332 1,392 1,360 1,359 1,333 1,345 1,423 1,408 1,547 1,453 1,401 1,396 1,337 1,396 1,363 1,363 1,337 1,348 1,423 1,408 1,551 1,457 1,405 1,577 1,513 1,572 1,538 1,533 1,511 1,546 1,653 1,677 1,735 1,632 1,581
Forecas t energy cons umpti on (monthl y, s ent-out)
Moderate s cenari o GWh 583 640 694 737 831 863 866 913 869 898 781 688 653 718 778 826 932 968 970 1,024 974 1,007 875 772 736 809 877 931 1,050 1,090 1,094 1,154 1,098 1,134 986 869 821 902 978 1,038 1,171 1,216 1,219 1,286 1,224 1,265 1,100 969 899 988 1,071 1,137 1,283 1,332 1,336 1,409 1,341 1,385 1,205 1,062
Base scenari o GWh 606 666 722 766 864 897 900 949 903 933 812 715 699 768 832 883 997 1,035 1,038 1,095 1,042 1,077 936 825 807 887 962 1,021 1,152 1,196 1,199 1,265 1,204 1,244 1,082 953 916 1,007 1,092 1,159 1,307 1,357 1,361 1,436 1,366 1,412 1,228 1,082 1,011 1,111 1,204 1,278 1,442 1,497 1,502 1,584 1,507 1,558 1,354 1,194
Hi gh scenari o GWh 630 692 750 796 898 933 936 987 939 970 844 744 745 819 888 942 1,063 1,104 1,107 1,168 1,111 1,148 999 880 871 957 1,037 1,101 1,242 1,290 1,294 1,365 1,299 1,342 1,167 1,028 1,006 1,105 1,198 1,272 1,435 1,490 1,494 1,576 1,500 1,550 1,348 1,188 1,134 1,246 1,351 1,434 1,618 1,680 1,684 1,777 1,691 1,747 1,519 1,339
Moderate s cenari o GWh 492 388 331 245 163 193 199 192 223 352 372 405 588 465 464 384 278 216 224 250 284 391 428 480 655 523 515 429 309 243 251 270 310 413 466 531 575 435 418 325 192 121 129 137 184 286 357 435 678 525 501 401 250 179 210 244 337 349 427 519
Base scenari o GWh 469 362 304 215 130 159 165 156 189 317 341 378 543 415 410 327 213 149 157 179 216 321 367 426 584 445 430 339 208 138 145 158 204 303 371 447 479 330 304 204 55 -21 -13 -13 42 139 229 322 566 402 367 260 91 13 44 69 170 177 278 387
Hi gh scenari o GWh 445 336 275 185 95 123 129 118 153 280 309 349 496 364 354 268 147 80 88 106 147 249 304 371 520 375 354 259 117 43 51 59 109 205 286 372 390 231 198 91 -72 -153 -146 -153 -92 1 109 217 443 267 221 104 -85 -169 -139 -124 -14 -12 113 242
2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021
Base scenari o MW 2,921 2,901 3,152 3,348 3,587 3,555 3,428 3,461 3,587 3,683 3,389 3,217 3,147 3,126 3,396 3,608 3,865 3,830 3,693 3,729 3,864 3,968 3,651 3,466 3,354 3,332 3,619 3,960 3,999 4,082 3,936 3,974 4,118 4,229 3,892 3,694 3,552 3,528 3,832 4,193 4,234 4,322 4,168 4,208 4,361 4,478 4,121 3,911 3,755 3,730 4,052 4,434 4,477 4,570 4,407 4,449 4,611 4,735 4,357 4,135
Hi gh scenari o MW 3,267 3,245 3,525 3,745 4,011 3,976 3,833 3,870 4,011 4,119 3,790 3,597 3,559 3,535 3,840 4,080 4,370 4,331 4,176 4,216 4,370 4,487 4,129 3,919 3,821 3,795 4,123 4,511 4,555 4,650 4,484 4,526 4,691 4,817 4,433 4,207 4,048 4,021 4,368 4,780 4,826 4,927 4,751 4,796 4,971 5,104 4,697 4,458 4,258 4,230 4,595 5,028 5,076 5,182 4,997 5,045 5,228 5,369 4,940 4,689
Suppl y gap - power
Moderate s cenari o MW 815 798 531 260 12 -34 -35 -172 55 171 437 580 620 604 321 36 -227 -271 -264 -403 -185 -75 211 365 463 449 152 -246 -313 -462 -447 -588 -377 -273 29 193 316 303 -6 -419 -488 -641 -620 -762 -557 -458 -142 31 159 146 -176 -605 -676 -832 -804 -949 -751 -656 -324 -142
Base scenari o MW 520 505 214 -78 -349 -392 -380 -521 -307 -200 95 256 294 281 -30 -337 -627 -668 -646 -789 -584 -486 -167 7 87 75 -254 -690 -762 -919 -889 -1,034 -839 -747 -407 -221 -110 -121 -467 -923 -997 -1,160 -1,120 -1,268 -1,081 -995 -636 -438 -314 -323 -687 -1,163 -1,240 -1,408 -1,359 -1,509 -1,331 -1,252 -873 -663
Hi gh scenari o MW 174 162 -159 -474 -774 -813 -786 -930 -731 -636 -306 -125 -118 -128 -475 -809 -1,133 -1,168 -1,129 -1,276 -1,090 -1,005 -645 -446 -380 -388 -757 -1,241 -1,318 -1,487 -1,436 -1,587 -1,411 -1,335 -949 -735 -607 -614 -1,003 -1,509 -1,589 -1,764 -1,703 -1,856 -1,691 -1,622 -1,213 -985 -817 -823 -1,229 -1,757 -1,839 -2,019 -1,949 -2,105 -1,948 -1,886 -1,456 -1,216
Avai l abl e energy (fi rm, s ent-out) GWh 1,999 1,935 1,994 1,960 1,955 1,933 1,968 2,075 2,100 2,157 2,054 2,003 1,999 1,935 1,994 1,960 1,955 1,933 1,968 2,075 2,100 2,157 2,054 2,003 1,999 1,935 1,994 1,960 1,955 1,933 1,968 2,075 2,100 2,157 2,054 2,003 1,999 1,935 1,994 1,960 1,955 1,933 1,968 2,075 2,100 2,157 2,054 2,003 1,999 1,935 1,994 1,960 1,955 1,933 1,968 2,075 2,100 2,157 2,054 2,003
Moderate s cenari o GWh 1,107 1,217 1,319 1,400 1,580 1,640 1,645 1,735 1,651 1,706 1,484 1,308 1,183 1,300 1,409 1,496 1,688 1,752 1,757 1,854 1,764 1,823 1,585 1,397 1,255 1,380 1,496 1,588 1,791 1,860 1,865 1,967 1,872 1,935 1,682 1,483 1,324 1,456 1,578 1,675 1,890 1,962 1,968 2,076 1,975 2,041 1,775 1,564 1,399 1,537 1,666 1,769 1,996 2,072 2,078 2,192 2,086 2,156 1,874 1,652
Base scenari o GWh 1,231 1,353 1,467 1,557 1,757 1,824 1,829 1,930 1,836 1,898 1,650 1,454 1,319 1,450 1,572 1,669 1,883 1,955 1,960 2,068 1,968 2,033 1,768 1,558 1,414 1,554 1,685 1,788 2,017 2,095 2,101 2,216 2,109 2,179 1,895 1,670 1,505 1,654 1,793 1,904 2,148 2,230 2,236 2,359 2,245 2,320 2,017 1,778 1,600 1,759 1,906 2,024 2,283 2,371 2,377 2,508 2,386 2,466 2,144 1,890
Hi gh scenari o GWh 1,377 1,514 1,641 1,741 1,965 2,040 2,046 2,158 2,054 2,122 1,845 1,626 1,492 1,640 1,778 1,887 2,129 2,210 2,217 2,338 2,225 2,299 1,999 1,762 1,611 1,770 1,919 2,037 2,298 2,386 2,393 2,524 2,402 2,482 2,158 1,902 1,716 1,886 2,044 2,170 2,448 2,542 2,549 2,689 2,559 2,644 2,299 2,027 1,814 1,994 2,162 2,295 2,589 2,688 2,696 2,844 2,706 2,796 2,431 2,143
Moderate s cenari o GWh 892 719 675 560 376 293 323 340 448 451 571 695 816 635 585 464 267 181 211 221 335 334 469 606 744 556 498 372 164 73 103 108 227 222 372 520 675 480 416 285 65 -29 0 -1 124 116 279 439 601 398 328 191 -40 -139 -110 -117 14 1 180 351
Base scenari o GWh 768 582 527 403 198 109 139 145 263 260 404 549 680 485 422 291 73 -22 8 7 132 124 286 445 585 381 309 172 -62 -162 -133 -141 -9 -22 160 333 494 281 201 57 -192 -297 -268 -284 -145 -163 37 225 399 177 88 -64 -328 -438 -409 -433 -287 -309 -90 113
Hi gh scenari o GWh 622 422 353 219 -10 -107 -78 -83 46 35 209 377 507 296 216 73 -174 -277 -249 -263 -126 -142 55 241 389 165 75 -77 -343 -453 -425 -449 -302 -325 -104 101 284 50 -50 -210 -493 -609 -581 -614 -459 -487 -245 -23 185 -59 -168 -335 -634 -755 -728 -768 -606 -639 -377 -140
2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026 2026 2026 2026 2026 2026 2026 2026 2026 2026 2026 2026
Base scenari o MW 3,951 3,925 4,392 4,529 4,711 4,809 4,637 4,681 4,852 4,982 4,584 4,351 4,138 4,110 4,599 4,744 4,934 5,036 4,856 4,903 5,081 5,217 4,801 4,557 4,316 4,415 4,657 4,947 5,145 5,252 5,064 5,113 5,299 5,441 5,007 4,752 4,517 4,621 4,874 5,177 5,384 5,496 5,300 5,351 5,545 5,694 5,240 4,973 4,863 4,690 5,095 5,412 5,629 5,746 5,540 5,593 5,797 5,952 5,478 5,199
Hi gh scenari o MW 4,453 4,423 4,949 5,105 5,309 5,419 5,226 5,276 5,468 5,614 5,166 4,904 4,643 4,611 5,160 5,322 5,535 5,650 5,448 5,500 5,700 5,853 5,386 5,112 4,832 4,943 5,214 5,539 5,760 5,880 5,670 5,724 5,933 6,092 5,606 5,321 5,054 5,171 5,454 5,794 6,026 6,151 5,931 5,988 6,206 6,372 5,864 5,566 5,440 5,246 5,699 6,054 6,296 6,427 6,197 6,257 6,485 6,659 6,127 5,816
Suppl y gap - power
Moderate s cenari o MW -4 -16 -464 -679 -870 -1,031 -996 -1,142 -951 -862 -513 -322 -163 -173 -640 -861 -1,059 -1,223 -1,182 -1,330 -1,145 -1,062 -697 -496 -319 -440 -692 -1,040 -1,246 -1,414 -1,365 -1,515 -1,337 -1,259 -879 -668 -508 -634 -896 -1,257 -1,471 -1,644 -1,587 -1,739 -1,569 -1,497 -1,098 -876 -821 -704 -1,100 -1,473 -1,696 -1,874 -1,809 -1,963 -1,801 -1,735 -1,317 -1,084
Base scenari o MW -510 -518 -1,026 -1,259 -1,473 -1,646 -1,589 -1,741 -1,572 -1,499 -1,100 -879 -697 -704 -1,234 -1,473 -1,696 -1,874 -1,808 -1,963 -1,801 -1,735 -1,317 -1,084 -874 -1,008 -1,291 -1,676 -1,908 -2,089 -2,017 -2,173 -2,019 -1,959 -1,523 -1,280 -1,075 -1,214 -1,508 -1,907 -2,147 -2,334 -2,252 -2,411 -2,266 -2,212 -1,756 -1,501 -1,422 -1,283 -1,729 -2,141 -2,391 -2,583 -2,493 -2,653 -2,517 -2,470 -1,993 -1,726
Hi gh scenari o MW -1,012 -1,016 -1,584 -1,834 -2,072 -2,257 -2,178 -2,336 -2,188 -2,132 -1,682 -1,431 -1,201 -1,205 -1,794 -2,051 -2,297 -2,487 -2,400 -2,560 -2,420 -2,371 -1,902 -1,640 -1,391 -1,537 -1,848 -2,268 -2,523 -2,718 -2,622 -2,784 -2,653 -2,610 -2,122 -1,848 -1,613 -1,764 -2,088 -2,523 -2,788 -2,988 -2,883 -3,048 -2,926 -2,890 -2,380 -2,093 -1,999 -1,839 -2,333 -2,783 -3,059 -3,265 -3,150 -3,317 -3,205 -3,176 -2,643 -2,343
Moderate s cenari o GWh 523 313 235 93 -151 -254 -225 -238 -102 -118 76 260 447 229 145 -3 -259 -366 -338 -358 -215 -235 -26 170 371 146 54 -99 -368 -479 -451 -477 -329 -352 -128 80 289 56 -43 -202 -485 -600 -573 -605 -451 -478 -237 -17 208 -34 -141 -306 -601 -721 -694 -733 -573 -604 -347 -113
Base scenari o GWh 307 75 -23 -181 -460 -575 -547 -578 -425 -452 -214 4 217 -24 -129 -294 -588 -707 -680 -718 -558 -590 -334 -102 131 -118 -232 -403 -711 -835 -808 -853 -687 -723 -450 -204 44 -214 -336 -513 -835 -964 -937 -990 -817 -857 -566 -307 -45 -311 -441 -625 -961 -1,095 -1,069 -1,129 -949 -993 -685 -411
Hi gh scenari o GWh 92 -161 -279 -452 -767 -893 -866 -915 -746 -783 -502 -250 0 -262 -388 -569 -898 -1,029 -1,003 -1,059 -882 -924 -625 -358 -93 -364 -499 -686 -1,030 -1,166 -1,140 -1,204 -1,021 -1,067 -749 -468 -189 -470 -613 -807 -1,167 -1,309 -1,283 -1,355 -1,164 -1,216 -878 -582 -287 -578 -730 -932 -1,307 -1,455 -1,429 -1,509 -1,311 -1,367 -1,010 -698
2027 2027 2027 2027 2027 2027 2027 2027 2027 2027 2027 2027 2028 2028 2028 2028 2028 2028 2028 2028 2028 2028 2028 2028 2029 2029 2029 2029 2029 2029 2029 2029 2029 2029 2029 2029 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2031 2031 2031 2031 2031 2031 2031 2031 2031 2031 2031 2031
Avai l abl e capaci ty MW 3,959 3,924 3,883 3,788 3,755 3,680 3,565 3,457 3,797 3,999 4,001 3,990 3,959 3,924 3,883 3,788 3,755 3,680 3,565 3,457 3,797 3,999 4,001 3,990 3,519 3,484 3,443 3,348 3,315 3,240 3,125 3,017 3,357 3,560 3,562 3,550 3,519 3,484 3,443 3,348 3,315 3,240 3,125 3,017 3,357 3,560 3,562 3,550 3,519
Base scenari o MW 5,078 4,897 5,320 5,651 5,877 6,000 5,785 5,841 6,053 6,216 5,720 5,429 5,139 5,105 5,546 5,891 6,127 6,254 6,031 6,088 6,310 6,479 5,962 5,829 5,350 5,314 5,773 6,133 6,379 6,511 6,278 6,339 6,569 6,746 6,207 6,069 5,566 5,528 6,006 6,380 6,635 6,773 6,531 6,593 6,834 7,017 6,457 6,313 5,785 5,746 6,242 6,631 6,896 7,040 6,788 6,853 7,103 7,293 6,913 6,370
Hi gh scenari o MW 5,678 5,476 5,949 6,319 6,572 6,709 6,469 6,531 6,769 6,951 6,396 6,071 5,749 5,710 6,204 6,590 6,854 6,996 6,746 6,811 7,059 7,248 6,670 6,521 5,990 5,950 6,464 6,866 7,141 7,290 7,029 7,096 7,355 7,552 6,949 6,794 6,236 6,194 6,729 7,148 7,434 7,589 7,317 7,388 7,657 7,862 7,235 7,073 6,485 6,441 6,997 7,433 7,731 7,891 7,609 7,682 7,962 8,176 7,749 7,141
Suppl y gap - power
Moderate s cenari o MW -1,030 -905 -1,318 -1,703 -1,935 -2,117 -2,044 -2,200 -2,047 -1,987 -1,550 -1,306 -1,087 -1,091 -1,520 -1,918 -2,158 -2,345 -2,264 -2,422 -2,277 -2,223 -1,767 -1,662 -1,717 -1,720 -2,165 -2,576 -2,825 -3,016 -2,927 -3,087 -2,950 -2,902 -2,428 -2,317 -1,911 -1,912 -2,373 -2,798 -3,056 -3,252 -3,154 -3,316 -3,188 -3,147 -2,652 -2,537 -2,108 -2,108 -2,586 -3,024 -3,290 -3,491 -3,385 -3,550 -3,430 -3,395 -3,058 -2,592
Base scenari o MW -1,653 -1,507 -1,971 -2,397 -2,657 -2,854 -2,754 -2,917 -2,790 -2,750 -2,252 -1,973 -1,715 -1,715 -2,197 -2,637 -2,906 -3,108 -3,000 -3,165 -3,047 -3,014 -2,495 -2,373 -2,366 -2,364 -2,864 -3,319 -3,598 -3,805 -3,687 -3,855 -3,746 -3,720 -3,180 -3,052 -2,581 -2,578 -3,096 -3,566 -3,854 -4,067 -3,940 -4,110 -4,010 -3,991 -3,429 -3,296 -2,800 -2,795 -3,333 -3,817 -4,116 -4,334 -4,197 -4,370 -4,279 -4,267 -3,885 -3,354
Hi gh scenari o MW -2,254 -2,086 -2,600 -3,066 -3,352 -3,563 -3,438 -3,608 -3,506 -3,485 -2,929 -2,615 -2,325 -2,320 -2,855 -3,336 -3,633 -3,851 -3,716 -3,888 -3,796 -3,783 -3,203 -3,065 -3,005 -2,999 -3,554 -4,052 -4,360 -4,583 -4,438 -4,613 -4,531 -4,526 -3,922 -3,778 -3,251 -3,244 -3,820 -4,334 -4,653 -4,883 -4,726 -4,904 -4,833 -4,836 -4,207 -4,057 -3,500 -3,491 -4,088 -4,619 -4,950 -5,185 -5,018 -5,199 -5,139 -5,150 -4,721 -4,125
Moderate s cenari o GWh 116 -134 -248 -419 -727 -852 -825 -870 -704 -740 -466 -219 35 -223 -344 -521 -843 -972 -945 -998 -825 -865 -575 -315 -331 -597 -726 -909 -1,244 -1,377 -1,351 -1,410 -1,231 -1,275 -968 -696 -415 -689 -826 -1,015 -1,363 -1,502 -1,476 -1,541 -1,356 -1,404 -1,081 -795 -500 -782 -927 -1,123 -1,485 -1,628 -1,602 -1,675 -1,483 -1,535 -1,195 -896
Base scenari o GWh -146 -422 -560 -750 -1,101 -1,240 -1,214 -1,281 -1,095 -1,144 -817 -529 -237 -521 -668 -865 -1,231 -1,374 -1,349 -1,423 -1,230 -1,283 -939 -636 -612 -905 -1,060 -1,264 -1,644 -1,793 -1,768 -1,850 -1,650 -1,707 -1,344 -1,027 -705 -1,008 -1,171 -1,382 -1,777 -1,931 -1,906 -1,996 -1,789 -1,851 -1,469 -1,137 -800 -1,112 -1,284 -1,502 -1,913 -2,072 -2,047 -2,145 -1,930 -1,997 -1,596 -1,249
Hi gh scenari o GWh -399 -699 -861 -1,070 -1,461 -1,614 -1,589 -1,677 -1,471 -1,533 -1,155 -827 -501 -812 -983 -1,199 -1,607 -1,766 -1,741 -1,837 -1,624 -1,690 -1,292 -948 -889 -1,209 -1,390 -1,614 -2,039 -2,203 -2,179 -2,284 -2,063 -2,134 -1,715 -1,354 -995 -1,326 -1,517 -1,749 -2,191 -2,361 -2,338 -2,451 -2,221 -2,298 -1,858 -1,480 -1,103 -1,445 -1,645 -1,885 -2,345 -2,521 -2,498 -2,619 -2,382 -2,464 -2,002 -1,607
18.10.2012
260690
Annex 7
Annex 7
Maps
Demography
Distribution of population and
main towns in Suda006E
Share of urban, rural and no-
madic population by locality in
Sudan
Power system
Map showing consumption by
state and consumer group
(2011)
Map of Sudan existing and
committed power plants
18.10.2012
260690
Annex 7
Annex 7: Distribution of population and main towns in Sudan
18.10.2012
260690
Annex 7
Annex 7: Share of urban, rural and nomadic population by locality in Sudan
18.10.2012
260690
Annex 7
Annex 7: Map showing consumption by state and consumer group (2011)
18.10.2012
260690
Annex 7
Annex 7: Map of Sudan existing and committed power plants
Legend
Red circles: Large Towns
(>10,000 inhabitants)
Blue lines: Rivers
Power Plant Technology & Source
Blue: Hydro Power Plants
Black: Thermal Power Plants
Power Plant Status
Circle: Existing Power Plants
(Hydro & Thermal)
Rectangle: Committed Power Plants
(Hydro & Thermal)
18.10.2012
260690
***

WP II Demand Forecast Report FINAL Revision

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