Quigs lecture

Environmental factors affect distribution but species can adapt to harsh environments, such as a
saline environment. This is called eco-physiological response. Interspecific relationships can have a
negative or positive response and this ultimately governs the range of a species.
A snapshot of past distribution can be seen in the pollen record and fossil record, but these records
are open to interpretation. Recently, these are becoming more accurate with scientific recordings. A
comparative method can be used note species in a location at time X, Y and Z and note changing
distributions, though these changes need explanations and can be conjectural.
Distribution change can be due to global warming:
Majority of butterflies have moved northwards, changing their distribution range.
Flowers are blooming earlier 1 week on average.
Trees flower around 5 days later on average.
Frogs are mating around 7 weeks earlier.
In Canada, red foxes are taking over arctic fox territory as they move further north.
Scottish red deer have an earlier breeding season due to improved grazing, which is caused
by a longer growing season. These deer are very sensitive to grazing their antlers are
getting bigger with the improved grazing.
There are both positive and negative feedback mechanisms in the environment.
Modelling of environmental effects is not easy. Kyoto Protocol came up with scenarios. For example,
the tropics act as a carbon sink, but due to global warming, in the future there will be less water in
the tropics, meaning a loss of tropical forests. The land area will become savannah grassland.
Eventually this area will shrink due to desertification. Kyoto say the carbon sink will reverse in 2080.
Eurasia and North America are warming due to a 70% increase in biomass which counteracts the
carbon sink. But the carbon sink in Ireland in reaching saturation point. The rate of tree growth is
decreasing because the trees are old and so the carbon sink is curbing. Younger trees grow faster
and so are better carbon sinks. Land use is also intensifying, meaning deforestation and carbon loss
into the atmosphere. Wildfires are on the increase and so are emissions.
2011 State of Europes Forest Report showed that trees cover of Europes land area. It absorbs
10% of Europes annual greenhouse emissions. But the rate of this forests carbon sequestering
abilities is slowing down as the trees mature. Mature forests are more biodiverse and ecologically
important, but younger forests are better carbon sinks.
In order to predict wild species distribution you need to take community response into account,
such as food webs, pollination, hosts and parasites. They have three choices: adapt, die or move.
Global warming has caused habitat reduction. There are mountain refugee species who need to
keep moving to a higher altitude as their environment gets warmer, until they eventually go extinct.
Sea level rise means coastal areas are very vulnerable, meaning extinction of shoreline species.
Amphibians need water to avoid desiccation. 43% show significant population decline. 32 species are
threatened with extinction with around 485 species in critical condition. 40 species have become
extinct within the last 30 years. UV and pesticide sensitivity have caused habitats to be destroyed
and isolated.
The Golden lion tamarin 1/3 of its species are in zoos. There are only a thousand in the wild as the
reduction of their habitat threatens the species. Theyre confined to nature preserves and are
vulnerable to predators.
In Thailand, a dam burst and a tropical rainforest was turned into a load of islands. The small
mammals in isolation became extinct in areas less than 10 hectares in around 5 years. Even
elephants and tigers became extinct eventually. Predation occurred in many of the small areas. An
example of an invading predator is the field rat.
A species is vulnerable when their range is contracting or peripheral or in a specialised relationship
with another species. Some species are not good at dispersal mostly plants. They can be vulnerable
to new pathogens, as plants are extra susceptible to disease during drought. Organisms under stress
become more vulnerable. Seasonal change to winter means many pathogens are usually killed by
the cold, but due to global warming, more disease is surviving. Birds that are susceptible to malaria
live at a higher altitude than the virus can survive, but climate change means the birds resistant to
malaria are moving upwards and bringing the virus with them.