PTX Cards

Aff
Wont pass
Republicans wont raise the debt ceiling empirics econ harm doesnt matter
Sargent 9/18 [Greg Sargent, Writer for the Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/09/18/if-we-
get-a-debt-ceiling-crisis-its-because-republican-voters-want-one/, If we get a debt ceiling crisis, its because Republican voters want one,
9/18/13, 9/19/13, CW]

If we are going to have a debt ceiling and default crisis with all of the havoc it may well entail it may well be
because Republican voters want such a crisis, even if it causes serious economic harm. No, really. Thats
what a new poll shows. The new Washington Post/ABC News poll on the debt ceiling tells us something remarkable: Among
Republicans who believe that not raising the debt ceiling would cause serious harm to the economy, a majority of them wants Congress not to
raise it anyway. By contrast, Americans overall see it in the opposite way. This is a complicated one, but its worth it. The new WaPo poll asks
two questions on the debt limit. It finds that 46 percent of Americans want Congress to raise the debt limit so the
government can keep paying its bills and obligations, while 43 percent want Congress not to raise the debt limit and
let the government default on paying its bills and obligations. Thats roughly an even split; the debt limit tends to
poll that way. Meanwhile, the poll also finds that 73 percent think not raising the debt limit would cause serious harm to the U.S. economy,
versus only 22 percent who say it wouldnt. How to explain the divergence? It turns out its largely driven by Republicans. I
asked the Post polling team for a breakdown. Heres the upshot: * Republicans are far more likely to oppose raising the
debt limit than anyone else; they say dont raise it by 61-25. By contrast, Dems say raise it by 62-31, and independents split by 48-46
on raising versus not raising it. * Republicans, however, also believe overwhelmingly that not raising it would
cause serious economic harm by 66-27. (Dems and indys tilt the same way.) * How to square that? Simple: Among Republicans
who believe not raising it would cause serious economic harm, a majority say dont raise it by 53-32. By contrast, among Americans overall
who say not raising it would cause serious harm, they tilt in favor of raising it by 54-35. Independents who say not raising it would cause serious
harm also tilt in favor of raising it by 58-36. And there it is: Republicans want Congress not to raise the debt ceiling, even if it would cause
widespread economic harm. I dont really know how to explain this. Perhaps its confusion about the debt limit (not raising it, of course, would
only cause default on debts already incurred), or maybe its an expression of generalized hostility towards something Obama wants. Or perhaps
its that Republican lawmakers have been telling these voters for years now that spending under Obama is the leading threat to the survival of
American civilization (even though the deficit is falling and there just isnt any near term crisis to speak of), and that standing up to Obama in
these epic spending confrontations is the only way to arrest the republics slide into total ruin. Apocalyptic intervention is required to salvage
whats left of our country, no matter how much harm it causes in the process.
Obamacare DA
Republicans attaching debt ceiling to Obamacare now will get defunded or debt
ceiling doesnt pass
Kost 9/19 [Ryan Kost, Writer for Oregan Live, http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/09/post_132.html, Debt ceiling,
government shutdown and Obamacare: PolitiFact roundup, 9/19/13, 9/19/13, CW]

Now that a possible military intervention in Syria has been put on hold while the Obama Administration and international partners try a more
diplomatic route, fact checkers have had their hands full with claims regarding debt, the economy and, as always, the new (can you even call it
that?) health care law. Of course, there's a lot of fact checking to slog through, so we've gone ahead and compiled something of a cheat sheet
for you -- it includes only the very best. Though a government shutdown is the most immediate threat, a bigger
problem lies in the coming fight over whether to raise the debt ceiling. If it doesn't happen -- stop me if you
remember this from the last debt ceiling fight -- it could have some major ramifications for the U.S. economy.
Anyhow, in an effort to head off that possibility, President Obama recently noted that "You have never seen in the history of the United States
the debt ceiling or the threat of not raising the debt being used to extort a president or a governing party and trying to force issues that have
nothing to do with the budget and nothing to do with the debt." Glenn Kessler, the Washington Post's fact checker, however, calls that
statement a "whopper." Kessler looked into the claim and found that "Time and again, lawmakers have used the 'must-
pass' nature of the debt limit to force changes in unrelated laws." Kessler goes on to note that the tactic doesn't
work often. But it must work often enough, he says, because some believe that the reason the debt
ceiling hasn't been eliminated altogether "is because lawmakers enjoy the leverage it provides against
the executive branch." Republicans, of course, have their own opinions about why the debt ceiling matters. Many are telling
constituents that they're digging in their heels because the nation can't afford to take on any more debt. One state representative in
Wisconsin, however, got dinged by PolitiFact Wisconsin for overstating just how much debt we take on in an given year. Rep. Chris Kapenga
recently sent out a newsletter saying "When the amount of interest you pay on your debt exceeds your total tax revenue (yes it does -- check it
out!), common sense tells us that all other programs are at risk." Well, PolitiFact reporters can't leave a "check it out!" alone and the
Wisconsin branch found that it was "not even close." "In fact, tax revenue is a number of times higher than what the government pays in
interest on the debt," the ruling said. The tension over the debt ceiling seems to quickly be turning into a proxy
war over President Obama's health care law. If you've followed PolitiFact at all, you'll know just what a fertile ground this law
is for fact checkers. Recently a whisper campaign that "even" Warren Buffet wants to scrap the law and start over has made some waves. If
that doesn't sound quite possible, that's because it's a lie. PolitiFact National looked into it and found nothing of the sort, rating the claim a
Pants on Fire, and adding "the notion that Buffett had recently turned on a president he supported by souring on his signature health care law
could have been easily debunked using Google searches." We'll leave you this morning with one more read. FactCheck.org has kindly compiled
a list of "Obamacare Myths." The article addresses whether premiums are falling (they're pretty constant) and whether the law is responsible
for major job losses (nope), among others.
2NC Focus
2NC Overview
DA outweighs and turns the case 3 reasons
a) Timeframe plan only has to pop up in congress to trigger the link that an
immediate perception signal to the global economy that we will default turns
case because that kills effective engagement
b) the plan causes an immediate economic collapse leading to a drawdown of US
military presence which is key to preventing Middle Eastern pre-emptive
nuclear wars and conflict escalation in hotspots in the South China Sea and
Taiwan Strait thats 1NC Harris and Burrows
c) we control the internal link to their impacts only a strong US economy
accesses US primacy and successful foreign policy including all forms of
economic engagement its the only way to fund your plan all vital aspects of
international relations the economic system, security alliances, free trade,
democracy promotion, all are maintained only by an economy that sustains the
funding economic collapse acts as a filter to all impacts
<More round specific analysis>

Obama Focus Link/AT: PC key
Obama needs to focus on debt ceiling needs support - distinct from pc
Schoen 9/18 [Doug Schoen, political strategist analyst and pollster, Forbes,
http://www.forbes.com/sites/dougschoen/2013/09/18/obamas-path-forward/, Obama's Path Forward, 9/18/13, 9/19/13, CW]

It goes without saying that President Obama has had a rough summer. Despite what appears to be a favorable development with
Syria, few Democrats and Republicans are supportive of the administration. As Congress braces for a
divisive debate over the debt ceiling, job creation remains stagnant, with August coming in below expectations and the Labor
Department revising its July numbers to reflect a significantly weaker report. Given that both Syria and the debt ceiling are likely to
dominate Washingtons agenda for the remainder of September, its highly unlikely that Mr. Obama will
advance key elements of his domestic policy agenda before the end of the year. This couldnt come at a worse
time: less than a year ago, the administration was approaching its second term with great ambition. Today, its not only digging itself out of self-
inflicted holes, but its also left without strong policy accomplishments heading into the 2014 election. By this time in his second term,
President Clinton had successfully negotiated with a Republican-led Congress both the State Childrens Health Insurance Program and Balanced
Budget Act of 1997. Despite the scandals that plagued his final years in the White House, historians broadly agree on his ability to move
legislation through a tough political climate. For President Obama, the stakes couldnt be higher. Democrats
control 53 seats in the Senate, but they risk losing critical races Montana and West Virginia in particular if stagnant
economic growth and volatility in the Middle East are driving the national dialogue heading into 2014. If this happens, its highly
possible that Democrats could lose the Senate. Additionally, barring any sudden political shift, its
unlikely that the makeup of the House of Representatives will see any significant change. This only
solidifies Tea Party Republicans stronghold over legislation that will define the final two years of the Obama presidency. To be
effective, Mr. Obama needs to shift the narrative and focus on pro-growth initiatives that provide a
much-needed reset once the current situation in Syria is no longer dominating the headlines. In the short-term, this
means embracing areas in which there is strong bipartisan agreement, even if its unlikely that Republicans (and at-
risk Democrats) will oppose any measure put forward by the administration. As I wrote in July, this must include clear proposals to reduce
income inequality, specific initiatives that help millions of Americans find work (with a focus on young African Americans and Latinos) and a
long-term energy strategy that recognizes the potential of American energy innovation and development. Both Democrats and Republicans
also have an opportunity to set themselves apart with key demographic groups. While immigration reform will likely fall victim to the
Congressional calendar (leaving support by Hispanics unchanged from the 2012 vote), seniors are clearly up for grabs and have shown a
willingness to support the party that stands up for their interests. With Medicare increasingly in the spotlight in the context of budget cuts, it
will benefit both sides to send clear signals to Americans over 65 that the program ought to remain intact. Just yesterday, we were reminded
of the unwavering support for the Medicare prescription drug program, which nine out of 10 seniors favor according to new survey data
released by the Healthcare Leadership Council. The survey also found that more than six in 10 wouldnt be able to fill all prescriptions without
the program, a telling sign that seniors rely on it. For policymakers focused on fiscal responsibility, the CBO estimates that Part D will cost $348
billion less between 2004 and 2013 than what was initially projected. Every second-term president reaches lame-duck status sooner than he
might prefer. For Mr. Obama, the remaining months of 2013 will be critical to regaining control of the
narrative as most in Washington prepare for a contentious mid-term election year. Focusing on the
fundamentals income equality, job creation, energy and caring for Americas seniors (just to name a few) provides the best shot for a
governing agenda that Members of Congress will have no choice but to embrace.
<Only if this comes up> - Indicates that Obama doesnt have the PC to pass debt
ceiling only has his focus
AT: Winners Win
Fuck you this aint pc its not about the wins its about focusing on the debate

AT: Link Turns
Absolutely no link turns no plan would cause congress to focus more on the debt
ceiling only risk of diverging focus
AT: Obamacare Thumper
Republicans wont mix Obamacare with debt crisis - major risk and CFTD intervention
Levy 9/19 [Pema Levy, Writer for International Business Times, http://www.ibtimes.com/debt-hawks-warn-washington-dont-try-attach-
obamacare-fiscal-fights-1408276, Debt Hawks Warn Washington: Don't Try To Attach Obamacare To Fiscal Fights, 9/19/13, 9/19/13, CW]

Congressional Republicans have put all their focus in the looming fiscal battles into defunding health
care reform, to the chagrin of deficit hawks who want to use the budget fight to push their own economic agenda. Just days before
the House Republican leadership caved in to the right wing of their party and decided to proceed with
a strategy of demanding that a bill to fund the government after the end of the month also defund the
health care reform law, a group of CEOs traveled to Washington with a very different message: Dont
mix Obamacare and the budget. On Tuesday, a number of executives with the Campaign to Fix the Debt, an
influential (and moneyed, raising $60 million at the end of last year, according to a report critical of the initiative) group of business
leaders and politicians who lobby for debt reduction measures, met with senators and White House
officials to discuss the upcoming fights to fund the government and raise the debt limit. According to one
CEO who attended the meetings, the message from Fix the Debt was that Congress should not link defunding the
Obamacare battle with the fiscal fights. The budget should be discussed alone, it shouldnt be
something that comes with a certain other bill attached, like health care reform, said Dominik Knoll, the CEO
of the World Trade Center of New Orleans, a trade group bringing international business opportunities to Louisiana. He said there was
consensus among the lawmakers they met with that the budget and health care should be kept
separate.