FR: Eric Gray Re: Latino voting patterns Republicans drafted a self-described autopsy report after Mitt Romneys 2012 loss to become more competitive in future presidential contests. This report contained the warning that if Hispanic Americans perceive a GOP nominee or candidate does not want them in the United States, they will not pay attention to our next sentence.
Since that stark admission, immigration reform has been debated- a few bills have actually passed one house of Congress- but nothing has become law. The reason? Republicans dont trust that Latinos would vote for their candidates. After all, they insist, Obama carried the Hispanic vote by 71% in 2012. Hispanics always vote for democrats anyway, so why bother?
However, voting patterns show that Latino support for either party is not assured.
Most of the immigrants coming to the US from the southern border have strongly conservative views. Many have been raised as devout Catholics. Progressive ideas such as birth control, abortion and same- sex marriage are objectionable, particularly to those involved in the Catholic Church in Mexico and other Central American locales. Many immigrants arrive at our border predisposed to the Republican Party.
But they soon realize that they will never become citizens. The roadblocks are too great to overcome. Conservative politicians insist that Latinos are not wanted; immigrants are characterized as parasites in the very land they choose to embrace. In some cases, laws are passed to punish those employers that might hire them. If they do work, immigrants pay additional taxes for benefits that go only to citizens and into a Social Security system from which they can never collect.
In 2010, it was estimated that illegal immigrants contributed $12 billion to the Social Security trust fund- money put aside for the retirement of legal US citizens only.
When faced with this hostility, it is reasonable- even expected- that immigrants might jump ship to embrace a different political philosophy. Like the band Everclear once said, they discover that the hand they hold is the hand that holds them down.
However, not all Latinos are politically alike. One Hispanic group continues to be a reliable voting bloc for GOP candidates. That group? Cuban immigrants that arrived in the Florida area in the 70s-80s.
Its instructive that this is the only recent Hispanic immigrants that were embraced by the prevailing political winds. The Immigration Reform and Control Act, touted as a get tough policy for illegal immigration, contained a provision for citizenship to those who had arrived in the US prior to 1982.
By embracing these people, President Reagan kept Florida solid for Republicans in five of the eight subsequent presidential elections. Former Cuban residents in Floridas Dade County remain concrete in their conservative beliefs, in part, because they were welcomed instead of scorned.
The GOP could follow the Gippers lead and become a stronger national party. They could adopt measures that strengthen border security while providing a path to citizenship for those who were born here. They could get tough and get realistic, all in one swoop.
It would reclaim the moral high ground. It would add votes for their candidates. It would stop the defection of Catholic and fundamentalist Latinos from the Republican Party. It would make Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz into the front-runners for the 2016 presidential nod.
As people, countries, and political parties mature, its necessary for them to cast off worn-out ideas and childish endeavors. Being anti-immigrant is not just anti-American, its anti-business. Its anti-progress.
And, its anti-successful.
Theres a reason you cant buy a buggy whip at a local retailer, or why telegrams are no longer in public use. These items passed their useful time.
If Republicans dont adapt, theyll become the Crystal Pepsi of political parties.