STA302 Mid 2012S

1
University of Toronto

Department of Statistics

STA302H1F / 1001 HF - Summer 2012
Term Test
May 30, 2012

Last Name:_____Solutions______________________________________

First Name:___________________________________________

Student Number:____________________________________

Enrolled in (Circle one): STA302 STA1001

Instructions:

- Time: 1 hour and 50 minutes.

- No aids allowed except a nonprogrammable calculator.

- If you do not understand a question, or are having some other difficulty, do not
hesitate to ask your instructor or T.A for clarification.

- There are 10 pages including this page. The last page includeS some useful formulae
and percentile points from various distributions.. Please check that you are not
missing any page.

- Show all your work and answer in the space provided, in ink. Pencil may be used, but
then remarks may not be allowed. Use back of pages for rough work.

- Total point: 50

Good luck!!!

Question 1 2 3 4 Total
Max 12 6 24 8 50
Score
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
Downloader ID: 20780
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Downloader ID: 20780 I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
2
Question 1

Consider the example we have examining in lecture in which we have been using simple
linear regression to model how mortality from lung cancer was changing as a function of
smoking index.

a) (2 marks) Stat the simple linear regression model being used. Which terms in the
model are random variables?

Model:
i i i
X Y c | | + + =
1 0

Y and are random. X is considered fixed.

b) (3 marks) State the Gauss-Markov conditions for the model in part (a).

- E(
i
)=0
- Var(
i
) =
2

-
i
s are uncorrelated.

(The GM conditions can also be stated in terms of the Y
i
s)

c) (4 marks) Assume that the Gauss-Markov conditions and the usual distributional
assumptions hold. State fully the distributions of the random variables in the model.
How do the distributions change with changes in smoking index?

( )
2
1 0
, ~ o | | x N Y + .
The mean of the distribution of Y differ with changes in smoking index (x).

( )
2
, 0 ~ o c N
The distribution does not differ with changes in smoking index.

d) (3 marks) The least square estimate of the Y intercept for the model in (a) is
0
| as
given in the formula sheet. Show that this estimator is unbiased.

We have that: X Y
1 0

| | = . Using the fact that
1
| is unbiased (proved in class)

we get

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
0 1 1 0
1 1 0
1
1 1 0
1
1
1
1
1
1 1 0

| | | |
| | | | | | |
| | | |
= + =
+ = + = =
= = =

X X
X X n X X X Y E
E X Y E X E Y E X Y E E
i n i n i n
i n

D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
3
Question 2

Suppose a simple linear regression is carried out to investigate the relationship between a
dependent variable Y and an independent variable X. The data consist of n pairs of
observed values of X and Y, (x
i ,
y
i
), i = 1,, n.

a) (2 marks) What is the first step you should carry out in the regression analysis? What
do you hope to accomplish in this step?

Plot the data to see if a linear regression model appears to be appropriate for the
data.

b) (1 mark) As part of the output for the simple linear regression analysis, SAS gives the
results of the statistical test with null hypothesis H
0
:
1
= 0 and alternative hypothesis
H
a
:
1
0. Why is this test of particular interest?

If
1
= 0 then there is no linear relationship between X and Y .

c) (3 marks) For testing the null hypothesis H
0
:
1
= 0 and alternative hypothesis
H
a
:
1
0 we have both an F test and a t test. Show explicitly how these two test
statistics are related.

We have that

( )
stat
XX
XX
stat
F
MSE
SS
MSE
S b
S MSE
b
b E S
b
t = = =
|
|
.
|
\
|
=
|
|
.
|
\
|
=
g Re
/
.
2
1
2
1
2
1
1 2

I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
4
Question 3

In a paper published in the British Medical Journal in 1965, Lea looked at data from
counties in regions of Great Britain, Norway, and Sweden. He was interested in how the
mean annual temperature (in degrees Fahrenheit) affected the mortality index for breast
cancer. (The mortality index is a measure of the death rate for women diagnosed with
breast cancer. The index Lea used measures death rate relative to the average death rate
for England and Wales. On his scale, England and Wales was given the value of 100.
Mortality indices greater than 100 indicate a higher death rate than that of England and
Wales.)

Some SAS output is given below for the analysis Lea carried out. Questions related to
this output begin on the next page.

D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
5
a) (5 marks) What are the values of each of the following:

- The number of observations ___16________

- The estimate of the variance of the errors __56.92184________

- The number replaced by (A) in the SAS output ___45.67________

- The number replaced by (B) in the SAS output _____6.76________

- The estimate of the correlation between mortality index and mean annual
temperature ___0.875__________

b) (1 mark) What percent of total variability in mortality index that is not explained by
its linear relationship with mean annual temperature?

2346 . 0 7654 . 0 1 1
2
= = R

c) (3 marks) Explain the practical meaning of the estimated slope and intercept.

There is no practical meaning to the intercept since a mean annual temperature
of 0 is well outside the range of the data.

The meaning of the estimated slope is that mortality index increase by 2.35769
for every additional one degree Fahrenheit in mean annual temperature.

d) (2 mark) What are the null and alternative hypotheses for the test with P-value of
0.1860? What do you conclude from this test?

0 :
0 0
= | H versus 0 :
0 0
= | H

The data are consistent with possibly having a 0 intercept.

I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
6
e) (4 marks) Give two different numbers from the SAS output that give some indication
of the strength of the linear relationship between mortality index and mean annual
temperature. For each number, state what it measures. Do not choose numbers that
are missing from the output and do not choose two numbers that are equal.

- The P-value < 0.0001 for the two-sided test with null hypothesis that the slope
is 0.
Assuming that the true slope is 0, this is the probability of getting the value
we got or a value of the test statistic (estimated slope divided by its s.e.)
further from 0.

- R
2
= 0.7654
This is the proportion of variation in mortality index that is explained by its
linear relationship with mean annual temperature.

f) (3 marks) Calculate a 95% confidence interval for the change in mortality index
corresponding to a change of 10 degrees Fahrenheit in the mean annual temperature.

We start by finding a 95% CI for the slope calculated using the formula:

( )
( )
1 2 / ; 2 1
. b E S t b
n o
.

We have
( )
145 . 2
025 . 0 ; 14
= t . So CI for a change of one degree (CI for the slope) is:

( ) ( ) 106 . 3 , 609 . 1 34888 . 0 145 . 2 35769 . 2 =

Therefore, the CI for the change in mortality index corresponding to a change of
10 degrees Fahrenheit in the mean annual temperature is:

( ) ( ) 06 . 31 , 09 . 16 106 . 3 10 , 609 . 1 10 =

Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
7
g) (4 marks) Calculate a 99% interval estimate for the predicted mortality rate for a
county with a mean annual temperature of 36 degrees Fahrenheit.

This is a PI calculated from the formula,
( )
( )
XX
n
S
x x
n
s t Y
2
; 2
* 1
1 *
+ +

o

We have, ( ) 08 . 63 36 35769 . 2 79469 . 21 *
= + = Y

( ) 65 . 467 17663 . 31 15 1
2
= = =
X XX
s n S

( )
977 . 2
005 . 0 ; 14
= t
The CI is then ( ) ( )
( )
( ) 96 . 80 , 2 . 45
65 . 467
59375 . 44 36
16
1
1 54466 . 7 977 . 2 08 . 63
2
=
+ +

h) (2 marks) If you repeat your calculation in (g) but for a county with a mean annual
temperature of 40 degrees Fahrenheit, you will get a wider or narrower interval?
Explain! (Note, you should answer this question without doing any additional
calculations)

Since 40 is closer to the average mean annual temperature, 59375 . 44 = x , the
resulting prediction interval will be narrower.

This can be seen in the formula for the standard error of the predicted value

( )
XX
S
x x
n
2
* 1
1

+ + .

The closer x* is to x the smaller the standard error would be and the narrower
the resulting interval would be.

D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0 Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
8
Question 4

(8 marks) For each of the following statements regarding simple linear regression, state
whether you agree or disagree. Briefly explain your choice.

a) For the least square methods to be valid, the error terms
i
must be normally
distributed with mean 0 and common variance
2
.

Disagree

For the least square to be valid the only assumption is that the relationship is
linear.

b) The sample mean of the residuals always equal the true mean of the error term.

Agree

The true mean of the errors is ( ) 0 = c E and we have shown that 0
1
=
=
n
i
i
e so
0 = e .

c) 95% CI for the mean response at a specific X = x* is always wider than the 95%
prediction interval for Y when X = x*.

Disagree

Prediction interval for a new observation is wider than CI for the mean response
since the standard error of the predicted value is larger than the standard error
of the predicted mean response.

d) ( ) 0
1
2
=
=
n
i
i i
y y

Disagree

This is what is minimized in least square; its numerical value is the RSS
residual SS.

I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
9
Some useful percentile values from various distributions

- 645 . 1
05 . 0
= Z

96 . 1
025 . 0
= - Z

( )
60 . 4
05 . 0
; 14 , 1
= - F
-
( )
624 . 2
01 . 0 ; 14
= t

( )
977 . 2
005 . 0 ; 14
= - t
( )
145 . 2
025 . 0 ; 14
= - t

Some useful formulae

-
( )( )
( ) ( )

=
2 2
y y x x
y y x x
r
i i
i i

-
( )( )
( )

=
2 2 2
1
x n x
y x n y x
x x
y y x x
b
i
i i
i
i i

- ( )
( )

=
2
2
1
|
Var
x x
X
i
o
|
- x b y b
1 0
=
- ( )
( )
|
|
.
|
\
|
+ =
2
2
2
0
1
|
Var
x x
x
n
X
i
o |
- ( )
( )

=
2
2
1 0
Cov
x x
x
i
o
| |
- ( )
=
2
SST y y
i

- ( )
=
2
RSS
i i
y y
- ( ) ( )

= =
2 2
1
2
SSReg x x b y y
i i

- ( )
( )
( )
|
|
.
|
\
|
+ = =
2
2
2
* 1
* | Var
x x
x x
n
x X y
i
o
- ( )
( )
( )
|
|
.
|
\
|
+ + = =
2
2
2
* 1
1 * | Var
x x
x x
n
x X y Y
i
o
- ( )

= =
2 2 2
x n x x x S
i i XX

END!

Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
Item ID: 6479
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
I t e m I D : 6 4 7 9
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
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