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INDIA ACCELERATING
Evolving the systems, processes and models for effective governance

in a purposeful India, trend analysis and forecasting implications with
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COAT OF ARMS: Crossed designer swords and the blazing yellow
sun

INDIA ACCELERATING is a public interest blog dedicated to applying
mental faculties for the good of the country and the betterment of
the countrymen and strives towards evolving intellectual systems
and governing models for the effective functioning of the state,
instilling a compelling vision of a vibrant India in the political class
and motivating millions of brilliant Indian minds towards a common
purpose so as to transform India into a dynamic economic, military,
technological and intellectual power.

Thursday, August 28, 2014
India Must Play The China Card Smartly and Shrewdly

Over the last 6-12 months or so, there have been at least half a
dozen face-offs between Chinese military and Indian soldiers along
the LAC in Arunachal Pradesh and LOC in Jammu & Kashmir. The
moot question is: what provokes Chinese adventurism on Indian soil.
To answer this question you must first understand the Chinese
psyche. China wants India to play second fiddle to it and come into
an alliance with it to challenge American world dominance. China has
exhibited the will and the resolve to do this by boosting its economy
and military substantially over the last 30 years or so.

But for a variety of reasons India should not and will not play second
fiddle to China. India is an open society given to strong democratic
traditions while China is largely a closed society in a veiled
communist system. India believes in religious freedom and
safeguards the family institution while China crushes or regulates
religious freedom and practices and also at the same time regulates
family structure. India believes in free enterprise and the power of
the individual to bring about tectonic shifts in society whereas China
believes in collectivism and state enterprise.

Chinas adventurism along the LAC and LOC are marked by various
reasons. It is militarily superior to India and has surreptitiously
promoted communist movements and Maoist insurgency in many
parts of India. China has extensively armed and provided nuclear
weapons to Pakistan to pin down India by putting extreme
psychological pressure on it. It occupies Aksai Chin in Jammu and
Kashmir and plays a strategic role in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir by
placing 11,000 odd troops there who are engaged in highway
construction, hydroelectric construction and other military activities.

That China wants to subjugate India forcefully is very much evident
in the way it conducts itself in South Asia with Indias neighbours. It
has built naval bases in Burma, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan. It
has military to military exchanges with Burma and Bangladesh, Nepal
and Pakistan often arming them with weapons to keep India in a
hostile environment and check its influence. The port of Gwadar built
in Pakistan by Chinese expertise is a strategic move aimed at
transporting oil from the Persian gulf to Mainland China via Gwadar
and on to POK and then to Xinjiang/Tibet where it has built a world
class railway system.

So to counter China, India must find its Achilles heel and what are its
weak points and the soft underbelly. For this India need not look very
far. India has provided safe haven to Tibetan dissidents and by any
estimate about 2-4 million Tibetans are stationed in India. Tibet
could easily be one fourth the size of India as it extends from J&K to
Arunachal Pradesh in the East and then deep into Chinese territory.
The other weak underbelly of China is Xinjiang Uighyr Autonomous
Region or more commonly referred to as Xinjiang where China has
relocated about 8 million Han Chinese who are at daggers drawn
with the local Muslim Uighyrs.

India should have a proactive policy of promoting democracy in both
Tibet Autonomous Region and Xinjiang UIghyr Autonomous Regions
and should encourage democratic movements in these two regions.
In India the BJP in consultation with The main Opposition, the
Congress, should develop a proactive and aggressive China policy
which would put the psychological pressure back on the Chinese and
this policy should be consistently followed for at least 20-30 years till
the time India develops economic or military parity with China. This
would mean encouraging the democratic movements and
independence movements in Tibet and Xinjiang both strategically,
culturally and militarily.

China has bullied India on several occasions and the only way to deal
with a bully is to stand up to it solidly and boldly. The US has many
times expressed interest to India in asking it to be a part of the
concentric triangle strategy to contain China whereby India, Japan
and Australia along with Philippines and Taiwan could have closer
strategic collaboration with each other. India should jump at this
offer and should make it amply clear that India aligns with US/Israel
and western democracies. This and this alone will safeguard Indian
interests and this alone will make the Chinese behave themselves
and keep India in a strong bargaining position.

If India doesnt do this, China will continue to arm twist and brow
beat india annexing many more parts of it and keep it occupied in
the little south Asian zone by propping up belligerent and hostile
neighbours. Modi has made a good start by cultivating Indian
neighbours. We must go two steps ahead in cultivating countries of
the central Asian republics close to Xinjiang, select countries of the
gulf/middle east, south Asian countries and off course Japan and
Australia. China is an unreliable country and India should not be
fooled by its overtures.

In this context, the years 2018-25 are dramatic periods in Asian
context. It is widely possible due to rising Islamic extremism and
China adventurism with regard to Taiwan, Japan and India that this
might break out to lead to World War III or in Indian terms
mahapralay. In this event about 400-500 million people will die or
be maimed in a bloody nuclear, chemical and biological warfare
stretching from the gulf area to Iran, India, South east Asian
countries and Japans. India is well advised to speed up the raising of
3-4 additional mountain strike corps divisions along the LAC and
LOC. IF China sees that India has a minimum deterrence in place it
will be prevented from excessive adventurism along LAC, LOC, and
the Indian ocean.
Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 2:08 AM No comments:
BJP/Modi Are Forgetting What Brought Them to Power

Even after three months in power, the BJP has not got a grip on the
country nor on the issues facing the country and is unknowingly
scripting its own downfall and writing its own deathknell. The BJP can
find the answers to its problems in its own behaviour and actions in
the last 6-12 months. For that we must first understand what
brought the BJP to power, why the majority population veered
towards the BJP and why we are now seeing cracks in this grand
spectacle.

Analyse Mr Modis poll plank: My religion is India first and my
religious book is the Constitution he said with much grandeur which
made people think that here was an alternative to the Congress.
Then Mr Modi said my motto is small government, maximum
governance. Even after three months there has been no sign of the
restructuring of the government and reallocation of human
resources without in any way resorting to downsizing or alienating
the government staff.

The third and most crucial point is that the majority Hindus voted the
BJP to power and gave it a clear and overwhelming mandate because
under the erstwhile Congress, Hindus felt alienated in their own land
and felt persecuted due to the Congress high handed policies against
the Hindus and appeasement of the minorities and mollycoddling
them. But Congress high handedness has been replaced by another
form of short sightedness.

RSS chief Mr Mohan Bhagwats statement that India is a Hindu
nation and Indias identity is Hindutva and those who do not agree
with this should leave the country is bound to be misread and
misunderstood by the Opposition. Lets go back in history. During the
start of the Muslim invasion in 950 AD or so, the Muslim invaders
termed the country east of the river Indus as Industan and the
people living east of the river Indus as Indus. This was later corrupted
to Hindustan and Hindus due to phonetical and pronounciation
problems. So technically yes, the people living east of Indus are all
Hindus since all people then had the same religion. But this was in
1,000 AD.

Today the situation is different. In the last 1,000 years, 15 per cent of
the population in India is Muslim, and another 10 percent Christians,
Sikhs, Jains and Buddhists and Parsis. To term them as Hindus in 21st
century India is a misnomer and against the tenets of the
constitution. Mr Modi said that all religions are equal in India and
followers of all religions will be given equal opportunity. So why is Mr
Bhagwat unnecessarily stoking fire and courting controversy?

Besides this, Amit Shahs brand of political radicalisation will do India
more harm than good. The people of India voted the BJP to power
and gave it an overwhelming mandate on mainly 5 counts: Fight and
protect Hindu rights so that the Hindu is not persecuted in his own
land; good governance; Modis said allegiance to the constitution
and to a secular Indian identity and a strong India. If Modi and the
BJP forget this, then it can be said in certainty that circumstances will
force mid-term polls due to loss of credibility and the BJP/RSS will be
booted out of power.

Finally, Mr Modi must devote and dedicate the next 5 years of his
term to building efficiencies and efficacies across the government
systems. If he can do this and maintain a balanced and secular
character, a bright second term awaits him in 2019, but if he caves in
to Bhagwatisms and Shahisms, there is no doubt that he will be on
his way out sooner than later.

Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 12:07 PM No comments:
BJP's Big Task For Next 5 Years: Make Govt Systems Effective &
Efficient

It is ironical that before it came to power, the BJP was vociferous in
its criticism of the then establishment on issues concerning the
country. But no sooner that it has been brought in the saddle that it
has lost all its bearings. It needs to be told what to say and what not
to say, what to do and what not to do at every juncture. It seems to
have some sense of the big picture when not in power but seems to
have lost focus and has no sense of situational awareness when in
power.

In this context, the biggest challenges facing the country today are:
Inflation, Unemployment, and a Weak Rupee. The solutions to these
problems can be found within and not without. We must look inside
and not outside. We must correct ourselves first and not seek to
correct others first. We must purify ourselves first and not seek to
purify others or find impurity in others. This applies to each one of
us. If only we acted on ourselves first and stopped correcting others,
our country would be a better place to live in. On a larger scale, this
applies to the government also. Indias problems are partly because
of a inefficient, corrupt and unproductive government system which
has been continuing for decades. This said, one cannot and should
not at the same time ignore the good also that has been done in all
these years. But the problems are a plenty. And these must be
addressed on a war footing.

The first and foremost task for the Modi government for the next 5
years is to make the governments at the Centre, State and Municipal
levels efficient, effective, transparent, accountable, productive and
honest. This means that additional infrastructure is welcome but
most importantly the existing infrastructure should be made
efficient, transparent, accountable, productive and honest. What are
the implications? It is that the municipalities and the state
governments must function efficiently: sewage, road and
neighbourhood cleanliness, the government departments, water,
sanitation, hygiene, hospitals, the tax departments, the police force,
the electricity departments, the roads, the railways, airports and
airlines, irrigation, schools, colleges, the public transport system and
many dozens of government departments must function efficiently
and productively.

It means that the councillors and legislators must work and discharge
their duties conscientiously, diligently and honestly. It means that
administrators and bureaucrats must be measured by their output
and merit and not by sycophancy and toeing the official line. It
means that councillors, legislators, parliamentarians, administrators,
bureaucrats, and government servants must work in the public
interest, must work in the national interest, must utilise the funds
allocated to them for a project judiciously, honestly and the money
should be well spent. This money should not be treated as loot or
plunder but should be seen as the hard earned money of the tax
payer. It means the sick industries and companies must be revived
and made efficient. It means the Opposition should also discharge its
duties responsibly and should function as an alert watchdog. It
means departments, ministries and institutions must work
efficiently, the funds allocated to them must be used judiciously with
proper audit, the government servants must be productive and
accountable and keep the public and not themselves first in mind.

Once you ensure the government and government servants are
efficient, accountable, productive, responsible, transparent and
honest, then you will be able to control all the three demonic
challenges: Inflation, Weak Rupee and Unemployment.

Friday, April 4, 2014
BJP Manifesto: 10 Guiding Principles

To precede action with sincere motives and honourable intentions.
To enter well thought-out and well planned action with boldness and
fearlessness.
Not to play negative and dangerous games. To play good, positive
games.
Belief in good, traditional, Indian values.
Belief in individual freedom and enterprise.
Belief in the presence of GOD and family structure.
To be grateful and loyal to our benefactors and to accept things
gracefully.
Belief in the healing, binding and formidable power of LOVE.
Not to use India's military might to expand national boundaries, but
to use military strength to uphold and protect our values and ideals.
Respect, fair treatment and equal opportunity to all religions,
castes and people of all regions.

Sunday, March 9, 2014
Modi Must Learn to Endear Himself to Others

Terms of endearment:
India is a complex country and governing it calls for sagacity, wisdom,
experience, and control. I have always maintained that the Indian
leader who leads this country must have experience over youth,
wisdom over dynamism and take everyone in his ambit and stride
and deliberately keep a consciously low profile. He must create
heroes out of ordinary members of his team and be the decision-
making force from behind the scenes. Modis and the BJPs strategy
need to be considerably tweaked if they desire to form the
government at the Centre post the 2014 elections. Two reasons can
be cited for this. In the assembly elections in the capital, the BJP
despite having the maximum number of seats in the assembly was
still not able to form the government because AAP with a lesser
number of seats was able to form the government with the support
of the Congress. You can no longer say that you dont seek power but
want to work in an altruistic way because it is power which ensures
that you will be able to provide good governance and a strong
government. Therefore you must use all means possible,
legitimately, to gain power. AAP is a parody because the very
government it opposed, the Congress, and the very reason for its
existence, it has defied it and is running haywire on the back of
Congress support. Even now, the BJP in Delhi must muster the
support of disgruntled elements in other parties and must try its best
to form the government in the Capital (Delhi). Single-party rule era is
over in India for quite some time and the BJP must be a past master
and learn the tricky game of pulling together a coalition and working
in its ambit. The BJP must eagerly reach out to other parties who are
disheartened by the ruling dispensation and must stitch together a
pre poll alliance to get the necessary seats and if not then after
elections it must focus on a post poll alliance. You must seek power if
you want to get it and no other party signifies this better than the
Congress. They wanted to rule this country and they made sure for
60 years that they got power. The BJP too must exhibit this killer
instinct. The bottomline is: you will get power only if you want it for
the good of the country. It will be a pity and indeed the people will
not forgive the BJP if it does a repeat of the Delhi performance in the
Centre. If despite winning over 225 seats in 2014 elections it is still
unable to stitch an alliance to form the government in the Centre
and if the Congress with 70-80 seats and AAP with 30-40 seats and
other parties come together it is very likely that a Congress led
government with the support of the third front or with tacit Congress
backing could once again form the government at the Centre and
this could leave the BJP out in the cold, yet again. This is the hot
gossip and stories doing the rounds in the drawing rooms of the
countrys homes. So Mr Modi should learn the art of coalition politics
and keep his alliance partners in good humour if he seeks to lead the
government post-2014 elections. Second, the BJP has to learn how to
work in unison and work in tandem. It can take a lesson from the
Congress. They are experts in doing this. The entire BJP leadership,
the second, third and fourth rung leaders must back Modi strongly
and must counter all negative jibes which the opposition takes at
Modi and the BJP. Modi in turn must create a rapport and strong
relationships with the nearly 20-30 prominent leaders of the BJP at
the national level and must extend respect, courtesy and importance
to them. At every MOdi rally, he must be backed by 5-6 state level
BJP leaders and 7-8 national level BJP leaders. The state leaders must
talk about district, state and regional issues in that order while the
national leaders must talk about state, regional and national issues in
that order and Mr Modi and a couple of prominent BJP leaders must
also talk about international issues apart from state, regional and
national issues. Before every rally, deep research by roping in local
experts and research on newspapers/magazines and internet must
be done on local, state and regional issues which are dear to the
local people and which they relate to. The protg (Modi) must have
the backing of the mentor (Advaniji) as no shishya can ever aspire to
complete his task without the blessings of his guru. Modi must
mellow down a bit, he must learn to endear himself to others,
especially his own party members, the people of this country and
even to the opposition.
Sunday, October 27, 2013
Modi Going Strong, But Not Quite Right. Heres Why!

India, a seven millennium-old civilisation is the cradle of many
groundbreaking discoveries and has been a theatre of many earth-
shaking events. India started losing leadership in the world map
because we did not realise the importance of unity and divided our
society along fissiparous lines. Whats more a thousand years back
we stopped believing in ourselves and forgot our sense of self worth
and self esteem. If you do not think well of yourself, or do not
respect yourself or do not treat yourself well how will you expect
others around the world to think well of you, respect you or
treat you well. Respect and a healthy self respect for yourself can
only be realised if its backed by clear thinking, clarity in purpose,
goal-oriented action, hard work and moral credibility (man should
strive for it).

At this juncture, change is necessary in the political landscape. The
Congress has been in power at the Centre for close to 10 years but
sadly the common man or the country has not benefitted. Media
reports that their leaders have amassed hundreds and thousands of
crores of rupees stashed away in overseas bank accounts, the party
has lost touch with the people, its policies are questionable whether
they would benefit the masses and India is becoming to look like a
weak, and dithering old elephant. Why? Because its political
leadership (by leadership I mean the CWC and top 20-30 leaders) has
not got its priorities and agenda clear and right.

The leadership space is vacant in India right now and there is a
leadership vacuum. The BJP must seize this moment and do what is
necessary even if its bitter for the good of the country. Shri Narendra
Modi is drawing large crowds in lakhs, but yet is not going quite
right. A simple slip could swing out of control and could cost the BJP
its golden chance to regain power at the centre. Hereswhy! In
politics, every thought, word (written or spoken), behaviour and
action is minutely scrutinised by the public and media, and rightly so,
because these are a peek into the leaders and partys mind. Firstly,
Shri Narendra Modi should stop taking barbs at the Gandhi family
and Shri Rahul Gandhi directly, overtly and caustically. The Gandhi
family (even if their deeds are questionable) have lead the country
for several decades and Shri Modis barbs may not go well with their
supporters, who could be in millions.

Further Shri Rahul Gandhi has not been nominated yet as the prime
ministerial candidate by the Congress and Shri Modi should not take
the battle to Shri Rahuls court. In either case its a uneven battle.
One is a aggressive 64-year old experienced political player, while
Shri Rahul Gandhi is a relatively unwilling politician and is being
thrust forward brutally by his own partymen. The Congress is doing a
blunder by fielding Shri Rahul Gandhi, Smt Sonia Gandhi and Smt
Priyanka Gandhi to be their sole star campaigners. Why is the
Congress afraid of putting up other seasoned leaders in its field (and
I can think of atleast a score) who can hold the campaign well and
provide support to the Gandhi family. One among the score of
political seasoned leaders which the Congress has can later be put
up as the prime ministerial candidate. To put the Gandhi family
members under a 1000 ton pressure to lead the country at every
juncture is merciless and not right. Smt Sonia Gandhi in 2004 had
clearly expressed her unwillingness to don the PMs mantle and to
accuse the Gandhi family of cringing to power is intrinsically wrong
and could backfire seriously.

The BJP must realise that as in other walks of life, in politics too the
game is all about doing and saying the right thing and sticking as far
as possible to the truth. Are the BJP central leaders providing enough
support to Shri Narendra Modi? Not yet. Every rally of Shri Narendra
Modi must be supported by 5-6 local/regional leaders and 5-6
national/central leaders. Is the BJP doing it right? NO! What are the
issue the leaders must talk about? Local issues dear to the local
people, regional issues and national/international issues which are
dear to the common man should be highlighted and talked about.
The BJP must do extensive research and consult with local leaders
and find issues before its leaders address rallies. To go to someones
house and to abuse him in his own house is intrinsically bad
manners, and the BJP should guard against it. It may not go down
well with the local people. The BJP leaders should draw attention to
the oppositions fallacious policies, wrong programmes, loss to the
district, region and country, suspect behaviour and actions but
should refrain from making any direct frontal assault in a caustic way
at the rival leaders. I again repeat the BJP must solidly stand behind
its leader in letter and spirit but at the same time must also extend
basic courtesy and politeness to leaders of rival parties.

So how must the BJP campaign progress for the next 6 months. Every
BJP rally must be video recorded, edited with speech highlights and a
summary and must be shown in every village and district of the state
on large screens for at least a month or two post the rally. It should
increase the shelf life of the speech of its leaders by doing so. People
will support you if you are perceived as good, decent leaders whom
the people can identify with and not poison spewing persons. It
should send speech highlights to local people via the media and
other innovative ways. India needs change badly, and the BJP should
not miss the truck this time. The Congress meantime should go back
to the drawing board and mull is it the party which stood for values
and steered India towards independence?
Ways in which the BJP can build a pan-India appeal

As things stand today, unless the BJP mucks it up badly, victory in the
2014 elections is a given certainty. By all accounts, the BJP and its
allies will be in power after the 2014 elections. Thus building a pan-
India appeal is an absolute necessity. This is how the BJP can do it. Its
National Executive and its Parliamentary Board should be
representative of IndiaS diverse population. BJP should appoint well
articulated spokesperson carefully picked from all the different
regions of India. BJPs public faces must reflect this pan India appeal.
IT must have a modern and developmental agenda for all sections of
society and for every Indian without forgetting Indias history or its
roots. Ram Temple and Ayodhya movements are a question of faith
and should remain as such without dislodging the developmental
political agenda of BJP. If a grand Ram Temple is built in Ayodhya
every Hindu will be happy but it should happen without contravening
the law, without creating law and order problems, by brotherly
consensus of the principal opposing side, the Indian Muslims and the
principal political opposition, the Congress. Ram Temple should be a
issue with the BJP always and not just during the elections, but it
should be confined as a matter of faith, and not politics. BJP should
have a very active and influential minority cell for the welfare of
minorities like Sikhs, Jains, Budhhists, Muslims and Christians. It
should have proportionate representations in its national executive
from these faiths representing all areas of India. Persons from these
faiths should also hold key positions in the BJP hierarchy. Most
importantly, just like the Congress (and they must be commended
for this), the BJP should work in unison, in tandem. If any of its
member is in trouble, the whole BJP should come to its support and
help the stricken party. The entire BJP should solidly stand behind its
elected and appointed leader and should not do anything to
undermine his authority or stature. It should not be seen as bickering
and indulging in in-fighting. The old guard should graciously make
way for the new guard and the new guard should openly and publicly
acknowledge and thank the old guard for support and guidance. BJP
should always play the role of a constructive and mature opposition
and should assist in all development activities by the government for
the welfare of the people of India and for India. Its not about Hindus
and Muslims, Right vs Left, rich or the poor, the haves and the have
nots, inclusivity vs exclusivity. Its about India.

NARENDRA MODIPRIME MINISTER IN WAITING: Its clear by now
that the groundswell of support for Narendra Modi as the BJPs
prime ministerial candidate by the supporters of BJP in the general
population is indeed overwhelming. Modi has a number of qualities
which stand him in good stead for this position. For one he has risen
from the ranks of the BJP cadre thus endorsing the claim of BJP being
a cadre-based party. For three long terms, he has successfully
steered Gujarats fortune as one of the leading progressive states of
India. He has the gumption of an astute political strategist and can
act boldly with panace as was evident during the Uttarakhand
disaster. He can take on the principal opposition, the Congress, with
strong arguments always attacking its weaker points. He is indeed a
good orator, and can deliver a speech to the target audience after
gauging the mood of the public. He has age on his side: he is 63 and
at this age can easily lead India for some time. But beware: there is a
big oceanic difference between being the prime minister in waiting
and actually becoming the prime minister. Modi must realise that a
prime ministerial candidate has to appeal to all sections of the
population, including the principal opposition. Without the principal
oppositions consent and acceptance he cannot hope to become the
prime minister even if he has the backing of his party. Why do I say
this? Because, remember in 2004 when there was a clamour for
Sonia Gandhi to become the prime minister but the move was
scuttled because the principal opposition, the BJP, led by Sushma
Swaraj vehemently opposed her candidature on the grounds of
foreign origin birth. She went to the extent of saying that to oppose
Sonia Gandhis candidature for the Prime Ministership she would
sleep on the bare ground and only eat roasted grams. So the moot
point is this. Modi must smoothen his rough edges, must become
more amiable to allies and supporters within the party, attack the
Congress not viciously spewing venom and poison but targeting its
policies and programmes without heaping insult and scorn on its
leaders. Its worthwhile to remember that even if the BJP comes to
power, the cooperation of the principal opposition, the Congress,
would still be necessary for the smooth functioning of the house and
the unobstructed passage of bills. Further, he should not be seen as
using people as stepping stones but should only acknowledge the
role of seniors who have given him this opportunity when he was a
nobody. Lastly, he should strongly condemn the 2002 riots in Gujarat
and should do everything to give justice to the aggrieved. But why
the riots happened in the first place, should also not be forgotten.

Saturday, July 13, 2013
Why The RSS/BJP are Even More Relevant During Current Times

For the greater part of the last thousand years or a millennium, the
predominantly Hindu subcontinent has been ruled by Muslims for
600 years and Christians for close to 300 years. In the organised
programs conducted by those in power for centuries, historians
estimate that approximately 150-200 million Hindus died defending
their faith and an equal number, possibly more, were converted to
Islam and Christianity. Yet in todays independent India, it is laudable
that Hindus have not carried the unfortunate baggage of the past
and have extended respect, right to safety and right to opportunity
to members of other faiths.

But here is where the problem lies. One would think and hope that
Muslims and Christians would reconcile to a India led by a resurgent
Hindu majority, but no. The Congress Party, the party in power for
the greater part of independent India, has a sizeable proportion of
Muslim and Christian leaders who have more often than not
prevailed over their Hindu counterparts in the party and have
dictated the agenda for decades thus leading to concepts of pseudo
secularism, and appeasement of minorities at the cost of the vast
majority. My contention is that as a community, Muslims and
Christians do not need any special reservations or favours to
compete successfully with others in India. Muslims and Christians are
perfectly well equipped and capable of looking after themselves and
defending their faith by themselves in India.

I would extend this argument to say that despite their relatively
small population, Muslims and Christians wield disproportionately
high influence in all aspects of Indian life and often dictate the
national agenda, albeit surreptitiously. In the Congress party,
Muslims and Christians have the upper hand and often arm twist and
bulldoze their Hindu counterparts to accepting a line of thought or
action. In the Congress party, the public voices are those of Hindus,
but the influence and the force behind these voices are those of their
Muslim and Christian brethren. Besides this, it is a well known fact
that in a family unit, the female spouse is the predominant factor in
taking daily decisions. As it turns out many Congress Hindu leaders
are married to Muslim and Christian female spouses who arm twist
them and influence them to act according to their thinking.

Now look at the hapless Hindu. For one, he has no sense of identity:
he is bogged down with several castes, sub castes, regionalism, etc.
He is often brow beaten by other communities into accepting their
line of thought. He feels like a stranger in his own land with the state
going all out to usurp his sense of identity and being. He feels
threatened in his own country. He does not feel safe in his own
country. There is distinct danger that he could be reduced to a
minority or become inconsequential in Indian polity. Enter the
RSS/BJP. These two organisations are making the first major,
organised attempt in Indias history to unify and consolidate Hindu
sense of oneness and power. These efforts by the RSS/BJP could well
transfer power to Hindu hands. Now this possibility is detested by
the Congress. Long since enjoying power in India, the Congress does
not want to see a unified Hindu rank and file led by a powerful Hindu
leader because then they will lose control over Indians and
predominantly Hindus.

Friday, June 7, 2013
China Cant Hold Indias Foreign Policy to Hostage

Todays article India Gets Close to Japan at its Own Peril in Global
Times by Chinese scholar Liu Zongyi, a visiting fellow at the Center
for Strategic and International Studies and a research fellow at
Shanghai Institutes for International Studies will resonate in Indias
policy corridors for a long time to come. The article stressed that
Indian policymakers are aware of the benefits that being a swing
state on the global stage can bring to India. This follows the
conclusion of Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visit to Japan
where he held a range of security and economic dialogues with
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. This visit came after Chinese
Premier Li Keqiang's recent trip to India.

For one, Global Times is a state run paper having the tacit backing of
the ruling communist party. The article throws light on Chinas
behaviour, albeit, myopic and aggressive towards its neighbours and
the compulsions behind Indias foreign policy. Its also time that India
by its behaviour and actions made its position very clear. India
should not appear to hunt with the hounds and run with the hares.
In other words it cannot afford to project itself as a swing state as
the paper claims. Indias foreign policy must be formulated with our
interests in mind and the ensuing problems with neighbouring
countries. It is good to mend relations with difficult neighbours but
we should not be seen to be cuddling up to them. There is no point
in giving unnecessary concessions to such difficult neighbours.
The present times calls for realignment of strategic relations. BRICS
should not be seen as a political and economic block. There is
nothing which holds this group together in terms of ideology or
markets except that they are emerging markets. But even in
emerging markets, the action is shifting to SLIMA, CIVETS etc. India
would do well to build an alliance with US, Britain, EU, Japan,
Australia, Phillippines, Vietnam and South Korea and other friendly
countries and push trade, commerce and security agenda with them.
China has clearly shown to India by its behaviour and actions over
the last few decades that it has scant respect for India, is
domineering and a bully and understands only the language of
strength. So be it. India should build a strong economic and security
alliance with countries interested in keeping China in check even
though the trade volume between China and India is about four
times that of India and Japan.
Meanwhile, Indias economic growth began a feeble recovery at the
tail end of a 2012 fiscal year that saw the slowest expansion in a
decade. Asias third largest economy grew 4.8 per cent from a year
earlier in the January-March quarter. The full year economic growth
for the fiscal year 2012/13 came in at 5 per cent. The government
data showed that the manufacturing sector grew an annual 2.6 per
cent in the March quarter. The farm sector expanded 1.4 per cent
from a year earlier. Mining sector, meanwhile, contracted an annual
3.1 per cent. The services sector, that makes up more than half of
Indias economy grew an annual 6.6 per cent in the March quarter.
Worryingly, annual capital investment growth slowed down to 3.5
per cent in the March quarter from 4.5 per cent year-on-year a
quarter ago.

This despite India's share in global investments is expected to almost
double by 2030, a World Bank report said. "In less than a generation,
global saving and investment will be dominated by the developing
world with India's share in global investments expected to almost
double by 2030. No other country except China will be investing
more than India globally," says the latest edition of World Bank's
Global Development Horizons (GDH) report. The two countries
together will account for 38 per cent of the global gross investment
in 2030. In fact, developing countries' share in global investment is
projected to triple by 2030 to three-fifths, from one-fifth in 2000,"
the World Bank said.

Meanwhile, The HSBC/Markit purchasing managers index (PMI) for
the services industry today inched up to 53.6 in May, pointing to a
solid expansion in output, one that was the fastest in three months.
A reading above 50 shows that the sector is expanding, while a
reading below 50 shows that the output in the sector is contracting.
Yet, India which was one of the largest recipients of foreign direct
investment (FDI) inflows in the last decade has taken a turn last year
when FDI registered a significant decline of 38 per cent to $22.42
billion. According to government estimates, India would require
around $1 trillion in the next five years for its infrastructure
requirements and to sustain its growth. This could be found in
household savings which stand at $1.7 trillion.

Further, India's gold imports surged in May and along with oil
imports these are one of the driving factors behind India's current
account deficit when the value of imports exceeds that of exports.
And the current account deficit can hurt economic growth. This is
because a large current account deficit (CAD) can impact foreign
exchange rate and weaken the Indian rupee. If India has to pay more
of its imports this would affect economic growth. As a weaker global
economy has impacted exports, India has used hot money to finance
this deficit, and that money can flow out very quickly in a risk off
environment. CAD reached a record high of 6.7% of GDP in the last
quarter and has been blamed for weakening the Indian rupee.
Compiled by assorted internet news sites and self analysis

Tuesday, May 28, 2013
Qualities Needed By The Head of The State

What are the qualities needed in the head of a State? The head of
the State should first learn to master his senses before he can lay
claim to master the populace. Only a person who has total control
over his mind, thoughts and emotions is entitled to crown his head
with the title of the head of the state. Such a person should have
total mastery over his thoughts, speech, behaviour and actions. In
politics you are a public person at every stage. Your most innocuous
remark in a casual setting could be misinterpreted if you are not
careful and it could imperil the lives of many people and cause you a
great deal of difficulty. Therefore you have to be conscious of your
eye gaze, the expressions on your face, your body language, your
gait, the way you dress and carry yourself and the way you talk and
conduct yourself.

But mastering oneself is a difficult task what since a human being has
several emotions like fear, greed, lust, envy, hatred, pride,
arrogance, conceitedness, selfishness, etc. Overcoming greed, fear
and lust are the three most difficult emotions to overcome. But if
you see things in the right perspective and develop the right thinking
over time, maybe 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 years you can overcome these
negative emotions. Attachment is another emotion that needs to be
checked. One must realise that everything in this world is temporary
and is subject to constant change. IF you realise that material or
human beings are the source of temporary or fleeting sense of
satisfaction and that everything must dissolve one day then you can
come closer to saying goodbye to attachments. Learning to be happy
with whatever little you have is another important quality which a
public person must have.

Other important qualities that a public person requires is knowledge,
vision and courage. A head of a state must have the necessary
knowledge to run the complex affairs of the country. HE must have a
army of knowledge workers who synthesise data and information
and help him to take the right decisions. Vision and mission is also
important. A head of a state must know what he would like the
country to be like, what direction the country should embark upon,
what are the solutions to the countrys problems and how should he
achieve his objectives. Finally, the last and the most important
quality he needs is COURAGE with a big C. He must have the courage
of conviction in the face of stiff opposition to his ideas. He must
enter action with boldness and fearlessness. He must have the
courage to do what is right and put his foot down on what is wrong.
Only then can he look into the mirror and not hang his head in
shame.
Wednesday, April 10, 2013
20 Things BJP Should do to CRACK the 2014 Hustings

1. It should re-establish the supremacy of the parliamentary
board and the national executive and should not allow anyone to
dislodge these two bodies.

2. It is good to prepare in advance, but 2014 elections are still a long
time away. It would be in good stead to focus on the ensuing state
elections and deliver victories here first.

3. Prime Ministerial candidate should be the trump card and should
be announced only after winning the 2014 elections. Therefore all
efforts must be geared in this direction.

4. Carefully build a detailed dossier on UPA misrule, misgovernance,
harassment of public/individuals, corruption scandals on the basis of
last 10 year media reports and public feedback and go national with
a thunderbolt blitzkrieg in stages all over the country.

5. BJP leaders should be careful and judicious in the language they
use to criticise and flay Congress/UPA leaders and the approach
should be of stating facts/figures without sounding acidic or toxic or
vitriolic.

6. Dont be apologetic about your strengths. Hindutva should be
promoted as a way of life, as cultural nationalism (unity despite
diversity). Strong India, good governance, Ram Mandir/RSS.

7. BJP should evolve itself in accepting all communities, castes and
religions from all regions of India. IT should build and sustain a pan-
India appeal.

8. It should focus on the following key constituencies and
stakeholders: women, employed/unemployed youth, old aged
people, MSME businesses, youth under 35.

9. It should interact with the 21
st
century youth on social media like
facebook, twitter, linkedin, stumbleupon, pinterest, digg, Delicious
etc.

10. It should build bridges with universities, colleges, schools, think
tanks and research institutions and make them a stakeholder in
success.

11. In collaboration with experts from different field, it should
articulate well thought out stands on various national and
international issues through its front ranking leaders.

12. Congress is a cohesive party and works in tandem, in synchrony.
BJP leaders/spokespersons should target 4-5 key leaders of Congress
in pleasant language but consistently exposing their weaknesses and
failures. Once you strike at the generals, the soldiers will fall in
disarray.

13. All BJP-ruled states should now start highlighting their good
governance record and establish their achievements, developments
in a systematic manner through innovative means and media in
stages all over the country.

14. Most importantly, it should project a unified image with all party
cadres and second, third rank leaders following solidly behind the
first rank leaders.

15. All front ranking leaders who speak in public must be well read and
informed and should be briefed daily on important issues by the
media staff.

16. BJP should reach out to 10,000 top medium and large enterprises
all over India and apprise them of its policy and stand on various
issues.

17. BJP should network with key stakeholders in foreign
embassies/consulates in India and apprise them of their success
states and good governance.

18. It should organise various BJP-ruled state meets where foreign
investors, states of foreign countries are invited over the next one
year.

19. This is a must: It should initiate a award/reward in technology,
science and entrepreneurship for technocrats, scientists and
entrepreneurs from all over the world and let the first show be held
in a BJP-ruled state this year.

20. IT should draw out a media strategy and engage with regional.
National and international media and also build bridges with
journalists of these media.
Saturday, April 6, 2013
The Maturing of Indias National Parties

Indias national parties, the Congress and the BJP, have shown
distinct signs of maturing in the past 10-15 years. For one, the top
leadership in both the parties has a pan-India vision, they are well
read and have a well-articulated stand on international issues, there
is broad consensus on important policy issues like defence,
international relations, foreign policy and internal security. This is a
good sign and shows that there will be continuity on important
issues irrespective of the party in power. This is an indication of the
fact that the ensuing 2014 elections will be fought on regional and
local issues especially since regional parties have gained prominence
in the last decade. However, there are still areas where we need to
go a long way. For one, the ruling party must avoid using the CBI to
settle scores, pressurise or armtwist opponents, and there should
be a complete elimination of politically influenced violence by
behaviour or actions on individuals or entities.

However the maturity levels need to be fine tuned and tweaked a
wee bit more. This was most apparent after Honble Shri Rahul
Gandhis CII address, the many pot shots by the BJP spokespersons
and the counter strikes by Congress spokespersons on Honble Shri
Narendra Modi. We need to go beyond personal attacks on
individuals and focus attention on their policies and actions. To see
both sides sparring over two speeches does not befit a great
democracy like India. However, what is a good thing is that over the
decades there is a great deal of toleration and acceptance of either
parties stance and philosophical tilt. For the BJP to have a greater
pan-Indian acceptance, it should build itself on inclusiveness of
castes, religions and regions, and promote Hindutva more as a way
of life, like Honble Advanijis cultural nationalism minus some
aberrations, with its main political plank being good governance
and strong Indian identity.

WE NEED TO SALVAGE THE PRIDE OF INDIA; WE NEED TO SALVAGE
THE PRIDE IN BEING INDIAN.
Sunday, March 31, 2013
The History of the Swastika

The Swastika is an extremely powerful symbol and for centuries it
has had positive meanings. What is the history of the swastika? The
Swastika is an ancient symbol that has been used for over 3,000
years. (That even predates the ancient Egyptian symbol, the Ankh!)
Artifacts such as pottery and coins from ancient Troy show that the
Swastika was a commonly used symbol as far back as 1000 BCE.
During the following thousand years, the image of the Swastika was
used by many cultures around the world, including in China, Japan,
India, and southern Europe. By the Middle Ages, the Swastika was a
well known, if not commonly used, symbol but was called by many
different names: China wan; England fylfot; Germany
Hakenkreuz; Greece - tetraskelion and gammadion and India
Swastika. Though it is not known for exactly how long, Native
Americans also have long used the symbol of the Swastika.

The word "Swastika" comes from the Sanskrit svastika - "su" meaning
"good," "asti" meaning "to be," and "ka" as a suffix. Until the Nazis
used this symbol, the Swastika was used by many cultures
throughout the past 3,000 years to represent life, sun, power,
strength, and good luck. Even in the early twentieth century, the
Swastika was still a symbol with positive connotations. For instance,
the Swastika was a common decoration that often adorned cigarette
cases, postcards, coins, and buildings. During World War I, the
Swastika could even be found on the shoulder patches of the
American 45th Division and on the Finnish air force until after World
War II.

For 3,000 years, the Swastika has meant life and good luck. For
Buddhists and Hindus, the Swastika is a very religious symbol that is
commonly used. In ancient times, the direction of the Swastika was
interchangeable as can be seen on an ancient Chinese silk drawing.
Some cultures in the past had differentiated between the clockwise
Swastika and the counter-clockwise Sauvastika. In these cultures the
swastika symbolized health and life while the sauvastika took on a
mystical meaning of bad-luck or misfortune. The swastika is actually
an ancient symbol, but its origin is hard to define. In "The Swastika,"
Folklore, W. G. V. Balchin says the word swastika is of Sanskrit origin
and the symbol is one of good luck or a charm or a religious symbol
(the last, among the Jains and Buddhists) that goes back to at least
the Bronze Age. It appears in various parts of the ancient and
modern world. This article mentions Christians did, indeed, consider
the swastika for their symbol.

One popular notion holds that it is a very old solar symbol. The
swastika resembles a lot like the "Greek" cross in its symmetry, if you
take out those little "wings" from the swastika. That's one
connection I can find with Christianity. Of course many pre-Christian
symbols were redefined and "used" by Christians of all times (with
varying success). The Swastika is indeed a sun symbol from antiquity,
appropriate in many themes and on many occasions. Like flood
legends, the Swastika (in various recognizable styles) is one of many
symbols found throughout ancient civilisations having no possible
contact (as we understand contact) with each other. Usually it meant
the sun, in its scheme as "the wheel of life". (Mayan, I believe.) It was
also a popular good luck symbol. For example, it can be found on
pre-1930 American New Year's greeting cards. A white Swastika on a
black field was the flag of an American Boy Scout Troop from its
founding to some point in the 1930's, when the Troop itself voted to
discontinue its use.

The Indian and Vedic connection is likely the swastika's oldest
incarnation. The symbol itself may still be found as an architectural
element, decorating sufficiently aged temples to whatever deity is
involved. There is a simply fascinating documentary on the swastika,
and its journey from mystic rune to fascist emblem. If memory
serves, a particular German woman of wealth, and the upper class,
made it her cause to sponsor the swastika into its position as The
Emblem of the Nazi party. As often happens after wars, mysticism
and spiritualism was popular throughout post WW1 and the 1920's.
She appears to have been a true believer of some kind, and felt the
Swastika itself had the power to lead Germany to ultimate triumph,
that soldiers who fought under it would obtain super-strength, etc.
The Swastika is (or was, depending on your WWII point of view)
actually a symbol of good luck, and possibly of fertility and
regeneration.

Several ancient cultures associated the symbol with the sun,
although I'm not sure of the actual details on this. The Navajo Indians
also had a similar symbol - depicting their gods of the mountains,
rivers, and rain. In India, the Swastika is an auspicious mark - worn as
jewelry or marked on objects as a symbol of good luck. The symbol,
though, is extremely ancient and predates Hinduism. The Hindus
associated it with the sun and wheel of birth and rebirth. It is an
emblem of the Hindu god Vishnu, one of the supreme Hindu deities.
Swastika is a Buddhist symbol for peace, as it still appears nowadays
on Buddhist temples in Asia. I have seen one in a bi-lingual edition of
a Taiwanese magazine. The editors felt the necessity of explaining in
the English text that Swastika is a Buddhist symbol of peace, and this
is why the puzzled European reader could see it in pictures showing
temples. A difference however can be noticed: the orientation of the
arms is clockwise in the Buddhist swastika and anti-clockwise in the
one adapted by the Nazis. The Swastika... has nothing to do with the
swastika used as the symbol in Nazi Germany. That symbol is from
Nordic runes and was used in Nordic tribes' pagan culture. Later it
was also used by the Teutonic Knights formed in the 12th century.
Courtesy: NS Gill and Jen Rosenberg
Saturday, March 30, 2013
Goodness (Righteousness) Must be Backed by Massive Strength

Structure of the Mind: The human mind is driven by the following
building blocks in human beings. These are thoughts, imagination
and emotions. Actions which are led by faith, hope and love result in
health, happiness and success. These building blocks are real,
tangible entities which can create and shape the future. At the baser
level are the instincts of ignorance, lust, greed, envy, covetousness,
which lead to fear and violence.
Present structure of the Indian state: Currently, the Indian state is
governed by the executive, legislature and judiciary, the civil society
and private enterprise. Amongst all these five entities, it is the nature
of the legislature which has the maximum impact on society. At
present, the Indian political system is such that it works on the
principle of inspiring fear, promoting confusion and suppression of
truth and facts to control the masses. As a result decision making,
clarity of purpose, action based on faith and hope become the prime
victims.
Desirable outcome in the Indian state: The following text is based on
the premise that one can shape his future and that the future is
shaped by deliberate, wilful activity in the present when one has a
clear road map for the journey ahead. This calls for purity of intent
and purpose, and the pursuit of karma with dharma. It calls for the
protection of righteousness and truth defended by massive strength.
It calls for the amalgamation of dharma yodhas with karma yogis at
the governing level. In ancient Indian philosophy, the king is an
extension of GOD himself, and by default has all the necessary divine
qualities for the protection and the benefit of his subjects. It is the
wilful creation of a governing class based on these ideals which will
propel India into the league of a powerful and respected global
nation.
BJP: Growth-Driven Party, Responsible Opposition

"We should take pledge that 2014 will be BJP's year. We have to
stand united. The atmosphere in the country is in party's favour...If
20th century was the century of Congress, let the 21st century be the
century of BJP," BJP newly elect President Rajnath Singh said at the
BJP national executive in March this year. Rajnath Singh is right.
There could be no better opportune moment than the current times
for fortune to favour the BJP. The winds of change are blowing in
favour of the BJP and the party needs to craft out a realistic and
smart strategy to come back to power in 2014. IT needs to bury its
differences at the top levels, stand solidly behind a clean, non
controversial, strong and dynamic leader, highlight the achievements
of BJP rules states through innovative means in all the media, build a
strong connect with the citizens, articulate well thought out and
deliberated stance on national and international issues, become
more active on the national, international and regional media, and
finally like a smart salesman should emphasise its strengths and
neutralize its weaknesses.

Undoubtedly, the Congress-led UPA government has blundered
astronomically in the second term being widely criticized for
corruption, nepotism, poor governance, failing law and order
situation in the country and victimizing and harassing supporters of
BJP. Praise for the BJP ruled states is coming in from all sides, and
from Congress itself. Union Minister Jairam Ramesh raised a few
eyebrows when, stepping away from the one-upmanship that has
characterized relations between the Centre and Opposition-ruled
states, he heaped praise on the BJP governments in Madhya Pradesh
and Chhattisgarh. The outspoken Rural Development Minister
applauded the two states for revolutionising agricultural.
BJP ruled states are in the forefront of progress and development
having embraced the mantra of good governance. Gujarat Chief
Minister Narendra Modi came in for special praise at the BJP national
executive meeting recently. Modi came in for repeated praise in
Rajnath Singh's speech. Gujarat has emerged a leader in power and
energy sectors under BJP rule. During 2009-10, Gujarat emerged as
the runner-up with a GDP growth rate of 10.53 per cent. The state's
GDP at constant prices over the last decade went to Rs 2,52,528
crore.
BJP-led Madhya Pradesh dislodged champion Bihar this March from
its numero uno position in terms of highest growth of gross state
domestic product. The provisional data released by the Central
Statistical Organisation for 2012-13 for states shows Bihar's growth
has slowed, slipping from an impressive 13.26% last year to a single
digit 9.48% this year as against 10% clocked by MP. In comparison,
MP has fared better, adding more than Rs 20,000 crore to its
economy during the last one year, and expanding its GDP from Rs
2,01,290 crore last year to Rs 2,21,463 crore this year. MP has been
another consistent performer. It grew by 12.47% in 2008-09 .The
following year it defied downturn to post a respectable 9.88%.
Though it came down to 7.13% the next year, it bounced back to
double digit by managing a rate of 11.81% in 2011-12.
Further, Just 10 years in existence as a state, Chhattisgarh has left
behind Bihar to emerge as the state with the highest economic
growth in the last fiscal. The state, carved out from Madhya Pradesh
in November 2000 and long known as a hot-bed of left wing
extremism, clocked a GDP growth rate of 11.49 per cent in constant
prices at Rs 60,080 crore in 2009-10. Chhattisgarh's impressive
performance in FY10 follows high growth rate during last few years.
The central Indian state had clocked a GDP growth of 17.51 per cent
in 2006-07 and 11.71 per cent in 2007-08, before dipping to 6.81 per
cent in 2008-09.
However, its bad news for Karnataka. Growth is slowing down, and
inter-state comparisons of socio-economic development indicate
that human development indices are stagnating in Karnataka. The
Economic Survey for 2011-12 has revealed that the state fared the
worst in terms of growth in 2009-10 with a paltry 3.88%, compared
with an all-India average of 7.96%. In contrast, the growth in
Uttarakhand was almost three times that of Karnataka at 11.61%.
The slowdown in the state becomes more obvious when one takes
into account the 2004-05 to 2009-10 growth of 8.65%, which was
close to the national average of 8.63%. Karnatakas human
development index (HDI) ranking, too, remains stationary it was
placed 12th in 1999-2000; the position remained the same in 2007-
08.
BJPs cadre based leadership is a more inclusive and democratic way
of running a party and it has some excellent leaders in the front
ranks and the second and third ranks. Vajpayeeji will be remembered
as a man who built BJP into a national party and together with its
members took the BJPs tally in the Lok Sabha from 3 to over 150 in
30 years time. Vajpayees strength as a great organizer of party has
earned him admirers in India and abroad. HE deftly managed a 25-
party coalition, the bus ride to Pakistan before Kargil showed his
tremendous courage, blasting the n-bomb despite international
sanctions showed his grit and determination, the golden
quadrilateral road project and the first non-congress government to
complete a full term not to forget sowing the seeds of a strategic
partnership with the US were his other achievements. Vajpayees
singular strength was that he could identify and embrace good and
sound advice and implement it even if it came from the most
remotest or hidden corners of the country.
If Vajpaeeji has now retired from politics it is Advaniji who is guiding
the party and serving as a solid rock of sound advice. He is truly
Mount Kailash, rock solid, wisened by thousands of years of natures
onslaughts and a firm anchor to the party. Advanijis chief
contribution is to stand up for Hindu honour and dignity, fight for the
right and self respect of Hindus, his numerous rath yatras which have
helped keep India united during tough times or in other words
cultural nationalism. HE has firmly proved that though Indians may
speak 1500 odd different languages and dialects and have different
customs and traditions, with different faith, religion and castes we
are united by culture. To be in the opposition faced by a belligerent
ruling party, Advaniji has shown that he is a tough man and made of
nerves of steel. Whats more BJP has a galaxy of leaders who can
steer the party in different regions during tough and challenging
times. They are Arun Jaitley, the master orator, Sushma Swaraj-the
fiery pragmatist, Rajnath Singh, Ravi Shankar Prasad, Murli Manohar
Joshi, Rajiv Pratap Rudy, Prakash Javadekar, Dr Raman Singh, Shivraj
Chauhan, and many more. With all things going in its favour it would
indeed be a big disappointment and a surprise if in the 2014 hustings
things turned otherwise.
Older Posts

Wednesday, November 7, 2012
Next Two Years Will Be Crucial For India's Foreign/Intelligence
Departments

The next two years are crucial for India in terms of foreign policy and
intelligence operations. Why? Because in the next 1-2 years there
will be a change in leadership starting with India itself, US, China,
Bangladesh, Pakistan, Afghanistan and some 2-3 more countries. So
should Indias intelligence agencies be caught with its pants down.
No! India should in earnest start collecting data and information on
the likes and dislikes, policies, stance, national and world view of the
new aspirants and the parties they represent in the respective
countries. India, starting today, should put its foreign office and
external intelligence agencies on high alert and should direct them to
gather all possible information---personal, professional, social,
public---on the candidates and the parties which are likely to come
into power in these countries. This information gathered will be
useful for India to articulate its stand and policies when the time is
ripe.

CAN THERE BE AN ASIAN CENTURY? There has been talk that the
21
st
century will be Asia's, just as the 20
th
century was America's and
the 19
th
century was Britain's. The 20
th
century was Americas not by
default or accident but by design because it willfully crafted a world
strategy for global dominance by building crucial alliances and
associations. So we saw the formation of NATO, the Asia-Pacific
alliance, and so on. But does Asia have such alliances in place? Not
by the looks of it. The only Asian body in operation is the Asian
Development Bank. There have been regional associations that have
flourished but nothing on a pan-Asian level. Is it necessary? I cant
say, because Asian countries are ideologically diverse. In this context,
India should strengthen the SAARC, BIMSTEC, Indian Ocean Rim
Association for Regional Cooperation, etc. We should seek to have a
influence and be able to shape events in a radius of 4000-5000 kms
from our shoreline and land borders.

WELL THOUGHT-OUT REFORMS NECESSARY: The economic reforms
of 1991 have definitely helped many people in India become
wealthy. However, the second wave of economic reforms should be
designed to bring riches to the poor, give a boost to MSMEs and
generate large-scale employment, build a strong middle and lower
middle class, improving the human development indices levels and
bringing more people out of the poverty index. Reforms are badly
needed in the labour sector, the administrative sector, the police
sector and policies must be made attractive to draw FII and foreign
investments. Goods and Services Tax and pension reforms should
also be implemented at the earliest. What happened to SEZs? No
one is hearing about them. The setting up of SEZs and their
becoming operational and functional must be speeded up to boost
manufacturing in the country. In the manufacturing sector, a focus
should be on small and medium sized enterprises.

DATA, INFORMATION & KNOWLEDGE CENTRE: Indias politicians are
hopelessly and inadequately informed. Parliamentarians, legislators
and councilors are not getting the right information and advice to
implement far reaching changes. Legislators are politicians in India
who have scant regard for learning and knowledge. But we should
always remember that the 21
st
century is a data, knowledge and
information age. Our legislators are woefully ill equipped to handling,
storing, processing and analyzing data, information and knowledge.
Each councilor, legislator, and parliamentarian at the municipal, state
and national level must have an office of 6-7 experts on economy,
business, industry, education, health, security at the municipal, state
and national level and this team should give our legislators sound
advice which can help them frame policies and take the necessary
action for the welfare and good of their respective municipalities,
state, district or the nation. Officers of the Indian Information
Services along with experts from the private, public and civic life
should man these services.

Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 6:40 PM 1 comment:
Romney's Win Could Spark Another Round of Cold War

Undoubtedly, the highlight of the fortnight is the American
Presidential elections. What does it mean for India and the world?
While both Obama and Romney are affable and good gentlemen,
there is a not so subtle difference in their policies and stances. Lets
look at defense. Obama wants a cut in defense spending called
sequestration to the tune of $1 trillion in the next 10 years. This will
affect the small players in the US defence industry. Obama also
wants friendly allies to up their defense spending so that the US can
divert and channelize the money saved in propping up its domestic
economy. Lets look at Mitt Romney. Romney still sees Russia as the
No. 1 challenger if not the No. 1 enemy. He has promised that
American defense spending will be accelerated to the tune of 4% of
the GDP. This means an increase of over $2 trillion in the next 4
years. Romney also says that on being elected, he will declare China
as the biggest currency manipulator. Romney wants a powerful
America which plays a major role in maintaining security in the
world. He wants to build new frigates, new bombers and aircraft
carriers. Meanwhile, Russia has said that it does not accept US
domination of world affairs and is against its encroachment in
Eastern Europe. Russia plans to increase its defense spending by 50%
by 2015. What is the prognosis if Romney wins? One, that US and
Russia will be again at loggerheads if Romney wins and this could
lead to the start of Cold War II. Second, what does it mean for India if
Romney wins? India will be placed in a highly awkward position.
While Romneys win will be good for the US and he might just well
help America regain its lost glory making it more assertive on the
world stage, an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation between Russia and
the US could start another arms race between the two superpowers.
If Romney wins, the best thing India could do is to remain neutral,
however, favoring the US since it shares democratic and liberal
values and a free market economy but not altogether ignoring
Russia, since Russia has helped India to a great extent in the 70s and
80s. But if Russia builds a nexus with China, then we should go all out
in support of and back the US, EU, Japan and Australia.

Monday, October 29, 2012
Does India Have a Policy to Counter Cyber Threat?

Like always, the leader in global trends and ideas, the US, has fast
detected the threat of cyber terrorism and cyber war on its soil. Leon
Panetta, the US defence secretary, recently said that the cyber threat
was more visible now following the Iraq/Afghanistan wars and could
cripple the country public and private computer systems. Shamoon,
a malware that infected Saudi Arabias computer systems in the
countrys largest oil/gas producer was cited as an example. Panetta
also warned of a Pearl Harbour type cyber attack that could take the
US by storm. Not surprisingly, the US Congress is in the verge of
passing some bills seeking greater military role in cyber security both
in the public and private spaces. Cyber attacks are capable of
crippling a countrys energy, transportation, financial and banking
systems. Is India alive to the threat. Even though 60 percent of our
country is living in the 17
th
century, a small part is up to date with the
latest in modernity. Should the government not set up a division for
defensive and offensive positions in cyber security and cyber
warfare? There must be joint cooperation between the government,
public and private sector to secure Indias computer networks.
Meanwhile, the US is getting ready to implement the country biggest
defence cut in the next 10 years known as sequestration.
Approximately 1 trillion dollars will be cut in military expenditures.
India Must Make Markets Attractive To Draw Investments

For global investors, the BRICs are losing their sheen even as other
emerging markets, especially Indonesia and Philippines become
more attractive. What are the reasons behind this? Both Indonesia
and Philippines have grown at a robust 6-6.5 per cent per annum for
the last 2-3 years. Their domestic consumption demand is almost
two thirds of the GDP. Philippines, with a median age of 22 and with
a large English speaking population is fast becoming a more
attractive BPO destination than India. Rating agencies such as Fitch,
S&P and Moodys have raised the credit rating of both these
countries. In this scenario, India cannot rest on its past laurels and
must create conditions necessary to attract foreign investment so
badly needed to augment infrastructure projects. There are
approximately 40 other emerging markets who are moving up the
value chain with the doggedness of a bulldozer, and unless our
capital markets look attractive the money from global investors
could definitely go elsewhere.
World War III Could Happen in Asia in The Next 5-10 Years

As global economic woes continue to haunt world leaders, the world
itself seems to be on the brink of a precipice and a large full scale
war in Asia. What are the factors that determine this prognosis? Lets
look at the EU where the sovereign debt crisis has gone out of
control with another bailout being mulled for Greece and also for
Spain. Analysts believe that France and Italy may also go the way of
Greece and Spain. The situation is so bad in Spain that some
Spaniards were found rummaging for food in the countrys
supermarket trashbins. The worlds largest economic block, the EU is
imploding. Lets look at the US. While polls show that the US could
avoid a fiscal cliff, it has record unemployment, its budget deficit is at
an all time high, and housing transactions have fallen. Yet the
economic growth in the US could be better the next quarter.
Democrat Barack Obamas administration is pitching for budget cuts
in the military and is urging countries in EU, South America and Asia
to up their military budgets as the US having spent considerably in
the wars on Iraq and Afghanistan is increasingly wary of providing
security umbrella to friendly countries. Not surprisingly in Asia,
countries such as South Korea, Indonesia, Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand,
Singapore have increased their defence budgets and are going on a
weapons acquisition drive much vary of a increasingly assertive,
secretive and belligerent China. Besides, this the tussle between
China and Japan over a clutch of islands which are rich in
gas/minerals could spin out of control. Nationalist feelings are at an
all time high in both these countries. World economic growth has
been slashed to 3.3 per cent as a whole, with the advanced
economies set to grow at 1.3 per cent and developing economies set
to grow at 5.3 per cent, the IMF said recently. Growth in the world
economy could increase marginally if the world fixes its unregulated
hedge and derivatives trading, the World Bank said. What is
necessary is accommodative monetary policies, steady fiscal
consolidation and fixing the financial systems to spur growth, the
IMF has advised. But the question is what factors point to a full scale
blown out war in Asia or World War III. Some of the points above
mentioned need to be factored but also the fact that
Israel/Palestinian problems, Iran, Pakistan, Chinas problems with
Japan and southeast Asian countries, the deteriorating global
economic order, the slowing of growth in the drivers of global
growth namely China and India. The global economic recession is
indeed very deep and entrenched and the world stands at where it
stood in 1933, just before the start of the World War II.

Wednesday, October 10, 2012
Riband Capitalism is Under Attack in Many Parts of The World

The current global economic recession could last for another 5-6
years, IMF chief economist said recently in Hungary. Besides, IMF has
also pared the growth rate for India to 4.9 percent. What do these
two developments portend for India? First, the assessments are
realistic and quite accurate and therefore, these factors need to be
taken into account while making policy or plans. By opening up more
sectors of the economy, the GoI will help attract more investment
into India. But economic reforms must be carried out gradually and
deliberately keeping the welfare of the vast underprivileged in India.
Will reforms lead to greater job creation, will it bring in necessary
technological and managerial expertise into India which the country
is currently lacking? Will they help raise the per capita GDP in India?
Will they help the common man in India to raise his income levels in
a lawful way? Will they help in boosting infrastructure in vital areas?
Riband capitalism is under attack in many parts of the world, and it is
generally felt that the working class is paying for the priviliges the
affluent enjoyed on borrowings or credit. Certain aspects of
capitalism may not necessarily be good for India and we need to
adapt this concept suitably keeping our peculiar conditions in mind.
An open economy where entrepreneurship can thrive and where
businesses can flourish is good but at the same time there must be
safety nets in the form of social security. We need an environment
where Indian businesses thrive and can compete with the best in the
world.

Russia, Pakistan Ties Should Not Alarm India
Russia and Pakistan have recently exchanged trade delegations and
there have been quite a few high profile visists from one to the
other. This should not be a concern for India. As India embraces a
more liberal, open economy and a pluralistic democratic
environment we will naturally gravitate towards the US, EU, Japan
and Australia where we have shared values. Russia, sensing this will
also balance this with forging alliances with those with whom it was
not so cosy earlier. However, Russia has helped India a lot in the 60s,
70s, and 80s in basic industries. We should value this help which the
erstwhile Soviet Union extended to India and should maintain a
healthy and trusting relationship with Russia. We should push for
more ties in those sectors where there can be transfer of technology
in key areas. Russia has supported India on many issues in the UN on
many occassions and we should never forget that. However things
have changed in the last 20-25 years. The world is a lot more
different place. The Soviet-US cold war is over and now we are
entering a phase of Sino-US cold war. Without overtly appearing to
be anti-Chinese, we should have our rooks and knights in place and
play in concert with democratic nations. Relationships even with
countries espousing different ideologies can be carried out provided
it serves our interest from trade, economics or commerce. Should
China and Russia cosy up beyond the current levels, then we should
not hesitate to ally with US, Japan and Australia. Gain some, lose
some. Gains in some relationships will invariably lead to losses in
some other relationships. But so be it.

Tuesday, October 2, 2012
War Looms Over Asia, Global Economic Outlook Bleak

As governments around the world do little to match policy with
action, the global economy could slow further in 2013, the IMF has
said. The US Presidential elections in November this year could
determine the future course of US fiscal policy and hence, the world
economy. A military option being considered for Syria/Iran problems
could spark another round of hike in petrol prices. Military conflict
looms over tensions between China/Japan over Senkaku/Daioyu
islands. Climate change has cost the world $1.3 trillion, 1.6% fall in
annual GDP and 400,000 deaths, the DARA group reported. Data
from around the world show that the US/EU may be entering
another round of recession putting pressure on growth rates of
BRICS/emerging markets. Among emerging markets, CIVETS, MIST,
SLIMA could be the drivers of growth, says Marc Mobius. As China
rearranges its economy from export-led to domestic consumption-
led, new economy Chinese stocks look attractive compared to old
economy stocks. While emerging market currencies strengthend a
while mid last week, the actions of Central banks in the developed
economies might weaken currencies in the emerging markets as they
may be devalued. Indias regionalism and politics of appeasement
should not in any way weaken a strong centre. The government
should be seen as decisive and purposeful. Oil/gas sourcing should
be diversified and alternative fuel/energy sources should be
found. Reforms should be carried out in steady steps keeping the
Indian conditions in mind.

Do what is right: Are the national parties in India losing their sheen?
Looks like. This is pertinent because they seem to be obsessed with
gaining/controlling/retaining power and all their actions are
determined by that. But you dont get the prize by doing what others
expect you to do, you dont get the applause by playing to the gallery,
you dont win the game by how the spectators want you to play.
Parties must determine their policies/actions based on what is good
and right for the country and the people. The character of a nation
develops when it does the right thing under tough and difficult times.
Thats the yardstick. The right actions or policies can vary from time
to time. What is relevant today may not be relevant tomorrow. So
how do you determine what is right? That can be based on how one
wants to see the present. Contextual intelligence and situational
awareness is very important in this case. Lets see what are the 5
most important issues plaguing India right now. These are:
education, employment, territorial integrity, economic growth and
good governance. Address these issues first. Actions must be made
on boosting the growth indices in these areas. History will not judge
you by how long you ruled, but how well you ruled and what you
delivered. History will judge you by how you made things happen
and how you changed the course of action. Remember, you dont win
the game just because you want to win it, but because you have
mastered the game, its rules and because you know how to play it
well. The good player will always win, whereas the one who does not
win is invariablly because he does not know how toplay well.

Prove your credentials: There is a lot of talk in the Indian media
about the rise of regional chieftains/satraps in Indian politics. Who
are the chief players in this arena? They are: Narendra Modi,
Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mamta Banerjee, Nitish Kumar, Biju Patnaik,
etc. In one way this is a good thing that the country is having good
managers in the state. Its good for the state and their people. No
doubt, this will help the overall development of India. But their also
have been talks by the media of some of them aspiring for the prime
ministers position. I think these allegations are false because none
of them have openly, consciously said that they aspire to be prime
ministers. Lets face it: at any given point of time there are atleast
half a dozen people in India who could be potential prime ministers.
But at any given time there can be only one prime minister. Regional
chieftains can certainly become prime ministers if they demonstrate
a legacy of good governance, able administration and statesman like
approach. Picking on petty issues only makes one look like a petty
player, not a national player. This national outlook, if they aspire for
the prime ministership, should be reflected in their talk, behaviour
and actions. This will be reflected in what their world view and what
their national view is. I dont think India will ever fall short of prime
ministerial candidates. Surely a billion Indians can put a half dozen
people for this position.

Saturday, September 29, 2012
India Growth To Remain Muted For Next 6-12 Months

Economy to Remain Tepid: The US remains in a fiscal cliff and the
world economy has entered the twilight zone. Manufacturing has
slowed in the US, EU, and in China it has been the slowest in the last
quarter. Yet, emerging market stocks and investment look attractive,
so far. One must now give up aspirations for 6-8 per cent GDP
growth and settle for 4-5.5 per cent growth for the next 12 months.
To boost consumer spending, the government should lower interest
rates, and release more liquidity in the market. Reforms must carry
on at a steady pace without shocks or otherwise India risks being the
only emerging market to be rated as junk. Subsidies must be only for
the 20 percent of the poorest and they must be scrapped gradually in
phases. Borrowing on credit must be curtailed. Credit card
companies must make stricter norms for issuing such cards and
payment defaulters who have a history should be denied credit
cards. Focus should be on reigning in inflation, creating employment,
boosting exports and increasing revenues. In military developments,
China unveiled its latest stealth fighter the J-21 which has striking
similarities to the US F22. China clearly is in a different league and
aspires global, challenging US/Russia/EU. Chinas military industrial
complex is very advanced with over 1,000 companies. Its defence
budget currently is $150 billion and is slated to rise to $250 billion by
2015. Elsewhere, BAe/EADS is mulling merger to create a behemoth
rivaling Boeing. The slowdown is a good time for
mergers/acquisitions.

Curtailing Corruption: Over the last two years, the 3G spectrum
scam and coal block allocations have rocked the nation. The moot
question is: why do scams happen? How much does a man and his
family need to live a comfortable life in a metropolis, a city, a town
or a village? I would say it would be seven times the market rent of a
2-3 BHK home in a decent neighbourhood. If that is the case, then
why are people in power clamouring for spoils in the region of
thousands of crores? Is it greed, desire, keeping up with the joneses,
future security, leaving a legacy for their children, etc? Either way,
the argument for accumulating wealth in the region of hundreds or
thousands of crores cannot be justified. In a country where 60
percent of the masses can barely afford a meal three times a day, a
shelter for themselves and decent clothing, having some people
garnering thousands of crores is unforgivable. The solution is to be
found at the hiring stage. Public servants, whether legislators,
bureaucrats or judiciary must be hired at the initial stage based on
their attitude and psychological makeup for being fit to render public
service. There are hundreds of ways to ensure that only people who
do not covet great wealth are hired as public servants.

Natural Resource Allocation: There has been a hue and cry recently
over faulty assessment and allocation of national property and
resources like spectrum and coal. Is it so difficult to find a just and
fair method for allocation of natural resources? If the governments
fundamentals and basics are grounded in reality and are clear, then it
becomes not so difficult. The questions to answer are: who are the
major stakeholders in natural resources. The answer is: primarily the
local population, state and central governments, and the private
sector. Benefits to each stakeholder must be commensurate with his
percentage of importance. Thus, the local population which has been
staying for hundreds of years must be regarded as the prime
stakeholder, followed by the state/central government and then the
private players. In terms of percentage of financial benefits this could
be 30 per cent for the local population, 50 per cent for the
state/central governments and 20 per cent for the private industry. If
you have a situation where the private players corner the majority of
the spoils at the expense of the local population, you are creating a
likely situation for unrest and heart burn. Besides the state treasury
would also get bankrupt. Despite, simple arithmetics, yet resource
allocation is highly skewed because the system is geared to enriching
a few private players and political leaders at the expense of the state
treasury and local inhabitants.

Need to Fight Crime: We are no longer safe in Delhi, is the rising tide
of comments by many Delhiites. Rape, muder, dacoity, abduction,
kidnapping , robberies are on the rise. The newspapers are full of
them and one gets a nauseating feeling in the morning when you
read the newspapers. Newspapers must have a pullout for the crime
section, which subscribers have the option to take or not to take. Its
necessary to introduce the study of moral science in the secondary
school stage as is the practice in many convent schools. Further,
every school must have a psychology and career counsellor to assist
disturbed students in putting their emotional, psychological, family
life in order. Solve it just in time and nip it in the bud. A situation
should not come when citizens feel that the state is ineffective in
providing security. Hiring of constables and junior police officers
must be done strictly on merit and aptitude and not on nepotism or
bribing, as has been reported very often. The beat constable is the
one who is the face of the police force, and he must be a strong
person with good moral character, integrity and be service oriented.
He must be paid well, his family should be looked after well, and he
should not be subjected to round the clock duty or be forced to do
double shifts. In short the police force needs to be augmented.
Further, citizens can also step in. Patrolling by private, well trained
guards by RWAs must be stepped up.
Thursday, May 17, 2012
Asia Ups Defence Spending, Becoming Increasingly Militarised

It might be big business in the developed and industrialised countries
but the defence industry is flexing its muscle with greater intent
when it comes to displaying, developing and selling their wares to
countries in Asia. That was aptly displayed at the recent Defence
Services Asia (DSA) expo in Malaysia, where 850 companies from 45
countries participated in the four-day event, showing the variety of
arsenal from handguns to jetfighters. The reason for such a display
boils down to what drives the industry spending. And it's no surprise
much of that is taking place in Asia.

A report by IHS Jane's, a defence industry publication, has forecast
China's military spending will outstrip the combined total of Nato's
top eight members Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Turkey, Canada,
Spain and Poland excluding the United States by 2015. Furthermore,
growth in spending is taking off not just in China but also in South-
East Asia, which has spurred its spending.

A report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
shows that the region increased its defence spending by 13.5% last
year, to US$24.5billion. The figure is estimated to skyrocket to
US$40billion by 2016, with the report noting that Malaysia's defence
spending has also risen. As observers have noted, Asia will outspend
Europe this year. The London-based International Institute for
Strategic Studies (IISS) says in the think tank's The Military Balance
2012 annual report that China's spending has fuelled other growing
Asian states into pouring more funds into their military and defence.

According to the IISS, Asia, excluding Australia and New Zealand,
spent US$262billion on defence in 2011 with China alone accounting
for US$89billion compared with Nato's European members, which
spent about US$270billion. Asian countries increased their defence
budget by more than 3% in real terms last year, the IISS said. China
increased its share of total military expenditure on weapons in the
region to more than 30%.

Western analysts point to China's plans for naval "force projection"
to defend its growing economic interests in Africa and elsewhere,
and secure maritime lanes of communication. More immediately
significant is China's development of anti-satellite capacities, anti-
ship ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and cyber-warfare capabilities.
"Managing tensions in the South China Sea will be an increasing
challenge," said the IISS report.

Defence analysts also pointed to potential tensions between the US
and China being aggravated by Beijing refusing to agree to
confidence-building measures along the lines of those between the
US and the Soviet Union during the cold war. "China does not want
to give a seatbelt to the US," one defence analyst said. Australia,
Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam are all
investing in improving air and naval capacities, as are India, Japan
and South Korea. India, for instance, plans to boost maritime
capacities with submarines and aircraft carriers, said the IISS.

In Europe, defence budgets remain under pressure and cuts to
equipment programmes continue. Between 2008 and 2010 there
were reductions in defence spending in at least 16 European Nato
member states. In a significant proportion of these, cuts in real terms
exceeded 10%. According to a report from the Stockholm
International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Singapore is now the
fifth-largest arms importer in the world, bested only by some
obvious behemothsChina, India and Pakistanplus South Korea.
Singapore accounts for 4% of the worlds total spending on arms
imports. Its defence spending per head beats every country bar
America, Israel and Kuwait. This year $9.7 billion, or 24% of the
national budget, will go on defence.

These are striking figures, but then Singapore has been one of the
bigger spenders in the region since its rancorous split from Malaysia
in 1965. The difference now is that almost every country in South-
East Asia has embarked on a similar build-up, making it one of the
fastest-growing regions for defence spending in the world. Military
analysts at IHS Janes say that South-East Asian countries together
increased defence spending by 13.5% last year, to $24.5 billion. The
figure is projected to rise to $40 billion by 2016. According to SIPRI,
arms deliveries to Malaysia jumped eightfold in 2005-09, compared
with the previous five years. Indonesias spending grew by 84% in
that period.

Indonesia is spending $8 billion this year on defencestill rather
modest for a country of 240m, but up sharply from $2.6 billion in
2006. Much is going on new hardware and spare parts. The country
has acquired Russian and American warplanes, including F-16
fighters, vessels for its navy, and spare parts for its C-130 transport
planes. In January Indonesia signed a $1.1 billion deal for three
German-made diesel-electric submarines, and lawmakers are
debating whether to buy 100 Leopard tanks from the Netherlands.

Domestic political calculations are another factor behind the regions
defence splurge. Terence Lee at the National University of Singapore
argues that in countries where the armed forces have meddled in
politics, civilian politicians use larger defence budgets to buy political
compliance from the militaryThailand is a case in point. Singapore,
on the other hand, has a different motivation. It is the only country
in the region building its own high-tech arms industry. Singapore has
long sold weapons to other developing countries, but has recently
been winning its first large orders from Western armies too. ST
Engineering, the only South-East Asian firm in SIPRIs top 100
defence manufacturers, has sold over 100 Bronco (or Warthog)
armoured troop carriers to the British, for use in Afghanistan.

For all that, strategic concerns do count for something. For example,
the sea lanes leading to the Strait of Malacca are the lifeblood of
Singapores prosperity. And over the past decade, some may have
worried that America was distracted by war elsewhere. So the
growth of a Chinese blue-water navy has implications.

Strategic concerns also loom large for any country with a territorial
claim to the disputed South China Sea (see article), where Chinas
assertive stance has provoked a surge of spending by, for instance,
Vietnam. The country recently ordered six Kilo-class submarines from
Russia. Vietnam is also buying seven or so new frigates and corvettes
over the next decade. In the Philippines the government of President
Benigno Aquino almost doubled the defence budget last year, to
$2.4 billion.

Meanwhile, Russias deputy prime minister Dmitry Rogozin faces a
formidable challenge of modernising Russias military-industrial
complex. He should not be deterred in this vital national mission by
alarmists and doubters, says Aleksey Volodin. The strategy for the
development of the military-technical field will consist of two main
areas: the development of Russia's own production capacity and the
creation of joint ventures for the production of military equipment.

Also, Japan is building its military muscle to play a bigger role in Asia
and the rest of the world, and it is making its military might more
visible. Japan changed its defense policy last December to allow
Japanese companies to export weapons and collaborate with
countries other than its main ally, the US. During British Prime
Minister David Cameron's visit to Tokyo last week, it inked a deal
with Britain on jointly developing and building defense equipment. It
was Japan's first weapons-building covenant with a country other
than the United States since the World War II. Japan's desire to build
up its military strength has been fueled by the pivoting of the US'
strategic focus to the Asia-Pacific region.

Although Japan's Constitution forbids offensive military operations,
Japan has quietly built one of the most capable armed forces in the
world. It has more than 250,000 men and women in uniform and its
annual defense budget is about $56 billion, among the six largest in
the world. Japan is also extending its military presence overseas and
focusing on the operational flexibility of its forces.

Sources:
Richard Norton-Taylor/guardian.co.uk; By CHOONG EN
HAN, han@thestar.com.my; Aleksey Volodin, Military Review
Source: ITAR-TASS; Cai Hong (China Daily)

Thursday, April 19, 2012
India should strengthen IBSA within BRICS

In light of the slowdown in the US, EU and Japan, some 40-odd
emerging markets led by BRICS is driving global economic growth
today. The acronym BRIC, as originally coined by Jim ONeil of
Goldman Sachs ten years ago was meant to identify fast growing
economies which could offer attractive returns to foreign investors.
But with the addition of South Africa in 2010, the ambition of this
politically disparate group has grown manifold. My question is
simple: whats in it for India?

For starters, lets look at the aspirations of this bloc and its chief
frontrunnerChina. China is pushing the BRICS promise aggressively
and not without reason. Having outpaced Japan as the second-
largest economy in the world with a GDP of $5.9 trillion and the
worlds largest foreign exchange reserves of $3.3 trillion, China seeks
to establish itself as a challenger to US supremacy, have a greater say
in the World Bank and the IMF and establish renminbi as a reserve
currency.

Jim ONeil has fervently questioned the inclusion of South Africa in
this bloc. South Africa has a growth rate of just 2.5-3 per cent
compared to the average 6-10 per cent of China and India. Nigeria
was a more suitable candidate for this position, says Jim ONeil or
other emerging markets like Indonesia, Mexico, South Korea and
Turkey. But South Africa was invited in this bloc at the insistence of
China as it is a gateway to the African market for Chinese
manufactured products and its rich energy resources.

The fourth BRICS summit in Delhi recently has shown that the
worlds fastest growing economies can also cooperate on wide
ranging issues. For one, they want the emerging markets to have a
greater say in the running of the World Bank and the IMF. There is
also talk about putting up a consensus candidate from the emerging
markets to head these two institutions for long dominated by the US
and EU.

Second, the BRICS summit in New Delhi also stressed the need to set
up a South-South development Bank on the lines of the World Bank
to finance infrastructure projects in emerging markets. Consensus
was also reached on intra-BRICS trade in local currencies to cut down
on tariff costs. BRICS also put up a common front with regards to the
violence in Syria and its opposition to the US-led sanctions against
Iran for its nuclear programme. But there were no political or
strategic decisions.

Can there be? Russia is an authoritarian communist regime, China is
a single party communist state eschewing elections, while India,
Brasil and South Africa are thriving democracies. The BRICS promise
is being pushed aggressively by China because it wants to enlarge the
scope of the not-so-effective Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, its
bid to establish multi-polarity in the world and project itself as the
sole challenger to US supremacy.

Both US and India, the worlds oldest and the worlds largest
democracies are wary of Chinas growing economic clout and its
secretive weaponisation programme. Both want to contain China
which has traditionally been an expansionist power. India would do
well to stand solidly behind the US initiative of concentric triangle
comprising the US, Japan, India and Australia to form a security
counter bloc against China.

Should India play game with China? It could clearly be risky and
detrimental to Indias interests. India has a long standing border
dispute with China and a lost 1962 war, for long China has instigated
Pakistan and Bangladesh against India and has encouraged Maoist
terror on Indian soil, and occupies large parts of J&K. In this light,
IBSA (India, Brazil, South Africa) partnerships of thriving
democracies should not be dismissed but India should work harder
on strengthening IBSA within the so-called BRICS bloc.
Friday, January 27, 2012
Gandhi Family: Conscience Keepers and Custodians of the Congress
Party

The Indian National Congress (INC) Party is often referred to as the
Grand Old Dame of Indian politics. Despite being in power for the
larger period since the independence of India, the party has
deliberately maintained a certain amount of somberness. The partys
chief characteristic is that it eschews a public show of pomp and
splendour, something which is reflected in the way its leaders carry
themselveswith a certain amount of low keyness. You will never
find a Congressman mouthing loud about his accomplishments or
being extremely extravagant about his tastes in public. Congress
leaders are measured in their speech, they mind their manners and
are careful about the way they conduct themselves in public. This is
an innate quality among the Congress leaders which is well ingrained
through rigorous party discipline and by example of its top
leadership. Detractors say Congress leaders are carefull not to
outshine the Honbl Gandhi family and that they give the Gandhi
family members a high degree of reverence, both in public and in
private. I ask why not?

The Gandhi family has been associated with Indian politics for well
over 150 years. Among the partys various illustrious leaders, it is one
of the chief nay the prime families that have built the present day
Congress party. Erstwhile scions of the Gandhi family have been
prime ministers of India and have served the country with dedication
and commitment. There have been charges by the opposition of high
handedness, favouritism and wrongdoing against the family but this
charge is not well placed. For a family which is the chief holder of
political power in the country, the family members when both in
power or without have used their power carefully and responsibly.
By the way the Gandhi family members conduct themselves in
public, it can safely be ascertained that their mooring are firmly
placed in reality and that they dont have any misconceptions about
the fact that power in a democracy is by contract and not perpetual.
Often times, the Gandhi family has demonstrated leadership and
responsibility in the party when direction within the party was
missing. Whenever there is a void within the party the Gandhi family
members have always stepped in to fill the gap. What comes out is
that they are not so much interested in holding office of power but
they are more interested in serving the country and the public.
Power has often been thrust upon the family members and they
have never pursued it blatantly. To shoulder such heavy
responsibilities in the worlds largest democracy is no mean task.

The present arrangement within the UPA of having two centres of
responsibility according to me is a brilliant tactical solution to
governance in complex times. Under the Honbl Gandhi familys
guidance, the political aspect of running a coalition is working truly
well. The Gandhi familys political clout within the country has well
managed to keep the coalition intact. On the other hand, Honbl Dr
Manmohan Singhs erudite and academic background has given the
country one of Indias most well qualified prime ministers. Despite
protests over inflation and food price rise, Dr Manmohan Singh is
doing an excellent job. However I do feel that the path towards
liberalization should be carefully tread upon. I can say that life was
definitely much better for the common man in the sixties, seventies
and eighties. The rupee had considerable purchasing power, and
while salaries were nominal, goods were very affordable.
Liberalisation has to be managed well as it is being increasingly felt
that liberalization is benefiting the top 5 percent of society only and
has infact heightened the income disparity between the haves and
have nots. Honbl Smt Sonia Gandhi, as chairperson of the UPA and
President of the Indian National Congress, is managing the political
aspects of the coalition with lan and dexterity. Dr Manmohan Singh,
as the prime minister of India is doing a laudable job heading the
government. Steps initiated by Honbl Dr Singh to make the
government responsive, accountable and transparent are slowly and
surely bearing fruit. It needs to be borne in mind that changes in the
government take years and decades to fructify.

Jealous and sniggering detractors, often ridicule and mock at the
present arrangement within the Congress and the UPA. They say
uncharitable things about both Dr Manmohan Singh and Smt Sonia
Gandhi. Many unpleasant rumours regarding the Congress and their
leaders are doing the rounds within the country. But rumours are not
meant to be believed. You cannot believe what a disgruntled person
says. It could be out of spite or hatred. The public must use its own
discrimination and discerning attitude in assessing what is the truth
and what is a blatant lie. Allegations and accusations against the
Congress party run rife. But to wield power and to wield it with
responsibility is a remarkable quality of the party. Opposition parties
when they have been in power have shown their true colours. They
cannot claim a holier than thou attitude. Corruption scams when the
opposition was in power run into several dozens. Harassment of
political adversaries or challengers when the Opposition was in
power are numerous and countless. The opposition has not proved
that it can wield power with responsibility.

Honbl Smt Sonia Gandhis foreign origins and her Italian background
have irked a large section of Indians and certain opposition parties.
But despite her Italian background, Smt Sonia Gandhi has done more
for India-her adopted country, than many so called patriotic Indian
women. Originally she did not at all wanted to be in the muck which
is Indian politics yet under public demand she chose to serve India.
Fact is there is no Indian women who can match her stature. So what
is the opposition complaining about. Honbl Shri Rahul Gandhi has
shown remarkable maturity in steering himself clear of demands
within the party and the country to don the mantle of the prime
minister. It shows he has his feet firmly on the ground. He has
proved to be a brilliant campaigner and orator and his efforts to
democratise the party is worthy of fulsome praise. Shri Rahul Gandhi
seems to be making the right moves and sounds by his visits to
Indias hinterland and understanding the problems of the country.
His efforts to be in touch with Indias poor and downtrodden by
extensively crisscrossing the country comes deep from the heart and
is certainly not a show for public consumption.

Detractors of the Gandhi family and the Opposition very often
complain that Congressmen are fiercely loyal to the Gandhi family.
And why not? Afterall, the Gandhi family is the conscience keepers
and the custodian of the Congress party.
Labels: gandhi family, INC
Why Are Some Polities More Prone To International Conflict Than
Others

Game Theory And Political Economy
James Russell and Quincy Wright suggested in the American Political
Science Review in 1933 that the danger of conflict could be
diminished by looking within states to discern what contributes to
the risk of war. Revolutions in game theory technology and political
economy modeling are helping to advance those goals. The
combination of non-cooperative game theory as an analytic tool and
the assumptions of political economy models about leaders
domestic interests and incentives offer a different explanation of
international relations from that suggested by realist theories and
other state-centric viewpoints. Together with more macro-level
theorizing we gain insights into what makes some polities more
prone to international conflict than others. By adding the micro-
level, game theoretic investigation of domestic factors to the analytic
repertoire we have now supplemented the aspects of received
wisdom that are consistent with the record of history with
explanations for puzzling facts about conflict that no longer seem
anomalous. Students of international relations are concerned with
the description, prediction, and control of the external behavior of
states, particularly of their more violent types of behavior such as
intervention, hostilities, and war. It is clear that mere description of a
diplomatic or military event has little meaning by itself and that such
an event can neither be predicted nor controlled unless account is
taken of the circumstances which preceded it within each of the
states involved.
James T. Russell and QuincyWright, National Attitudes on the Far
Eastern Controversy (1933, 555).

Russell and Wrights (1933) view lay dormant for most students of
international conflict until well after the empirical demonstration by
Babst (1964) that democracies rarely, if ever, fight wars with each
other. That insight, originally articulated by Immanuel Kant in 1795,
slowly percolated through the security studies community,
eventually leading to a proliferation of theories and empirical studies
that look within states to sort out why different types of regimes
behave differently when it comes to decisions about war and peace.
No other aspect of conflict studies since the advent of nuclear
deterrence theory has had as large an impact on American foreign
policy as the theorizing and empirical assessments of the democratic
peace. Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush embraced the
central insight from this literature, with Bush making the promotion
of democracy a theme of his foreign policy. Therefore, understanding
the shift in research strategies that led to the insights of the
democratic peace is important from both a theoretical and a
practical standpoint.

Political economy was turned to as one means to try to overcome
the limitations of realist approaches. It is not, of course, the only
such alternative. Numerous other theoretical perspectives were also
stimulated by the perception that realism faced limits on its ability to
explain remaining puzzles concerning international onflict. Neo-
liberalism, gender studies, constructivism, and computational models
are among the alternative and sometimes complementary
approaches explored as means to solve conundrums regarding war
and peace. Like some of the alternative approaches, political
economy modelsthe focus hereenjoy a history of success in
other aspects of social inquiry. These include elucidating the
democratic peace; clarifying issues in American and comparative
politics, at least since the origins of the Rochester school in the
1960s; and providing micro-foundations for research in economics
and politics about growth, the resource curse, trade, and banking
policy. Political economy models, like some other modeling, also
benefited from improvements in game theory that facilitated the
construction of more sophisticated models than was possible prior to
the late 1970s, as well as from the stimulus provided by the
recognition that domestic factors contributed significantly to the
demise of the USSR and the end of the cold war.

The political economy perspective treats leaders, not states, as the
object of study. In doing so, it argues that relations among nations
are produced by the normal pulls and tugs of domestic affairs, taking
into account the domestic and international constraints under which
leaders in contending states operate. That this is a significant
conceptual departure from state-centric, realist accounts is
exemplified by the inability of such languages as English, French,
Chinese, Urdu, and perhaps all others to describe international
relations without invoking the nation as the key unit of analysis.
Political economy models and empirical assessments evaluate policy
choices as parts of equilibrium behavior induced by domestic
institutions. They conceive of the choice of foreign policy interactions
as incentive-compatible with the motives of national leaders. These
leaders motivations may not beand often are notcompatible
with their nations interest.

Domestic institutional structures (such as the competitiveness of
leadership selection or the extent of government accountability and
transparency) help shape the interplay of leaders, elites, and
ordinary citizens, resulting in policies that create the contours of the
international environmentcontours that in realist approaches are
taken as given rather than as factors to be explained. By drawing
attention to leaders, recent scholarship illuminates empirical
regularities not previously discerned. Gaubatz (1991), Fordham
(1998a, 1998b), and Smith (2004), for instance, show that war-timing
by democratic leaders depends on the election cycle, electoral rules,
and domestic political circumstances. Fearon (1994) and Smith
(1996) suggest that democratic leaders are more constrained than
autocrats to carry out the threats they make because of domestic
political audience costs. Schultz (1998, 2001) shows that the
existence of a domestic political opposition limits democratic foreign
policy adventurism in ways not experienced by non-democrats.
Bueno de Mesquita et al. (1999, 2003) develop a selectorate
theory of politics, showing how variations in the size of a politys
political institutions, that is, its selectorate and its winning coalition,
help explain the empirical regularities that make up the democratic
peace. Bueno de Mesquita and Downs (2006) build on the
selectorate account to explain the willingness of democratic military
interveners to restrict the spread of democracy even when these
interveners declare that they are motivated to promote democratic
reform elsewhere.

Each of these studies shares a conviction that policy decisions are
strategic, taking into account expected responses by foreign and
domestic adversaries and supporters, and so use non-cooperative
game theory as their foundational analytic structure. Many then go
on to use statistical and case study methods to probe the generality
and the verisimilitude of their proposed explanations of international
conflict. These studies also suggest critical empirical tests to help sort
out the explanatory power of alternative perspectives. A game-
theoretic focus on strategic interaction that assumes that states are
rational unitary actors shows that war, being costly, is always ex post
inefficient (Fearon 1995). Political economy, game-theoretic models
agree but add that war, although ex post ineffi-cient in terms of
citizen welfare, can be beneficial for leaders (Chiozza and Goemans
2004). Just consider Margaret Thatchers poor prospects of
reelection as Britains prime minister before the Falklands/Malvinas
War. Her popularity soared following the UKs victory, which may
have been instrumental to her reelection in 1983. We can only
conjecture on what the electoral consequences would have been for
Thatcher had shecost-effectivelybought off Argentinas generals
and the Falklands shepherds rather than fight to defend Britains
territorial claims.

The political economy approachs microfoundations separate the
interests of leaders from those of the broader populace, or the
national interest. This may be its most significant evolutionary step
beyond realisms focus on the state as a unitary entity. As many have
noted, the policies that leaders adopt to enhance their hold on
power often make their subjects worse off. The selectorate consists
of those who have at least a nominal say in choosing leaders and are
eligible to become members of a winning coalition. The winning
coalition is the subset of the selectorate without whose support an
incumbent cannot be sustained in office.

Consider, for instance, the personally beneficial and nationally
debilitating actions of North Koreas Kim Jong-il, Zimbabwes Robert
Mugabe, Iraqs Saddam Hussein, or the Philippine leader Ferdinand
Marcos. Each managed to retain his position of national leadership
for many more yearsoften decades longerthan democratic
counterparts can reasonably aspire to, and yet each contributed to
the impoverishment of his nations ordinary citizens even as he and
his inner circle of cronies ensured their own wealth. In such self-
aggrandizing circumstances it is difficult to square their international
interactions with a state-centric approachs attentiveness to the
national interest. Yet such policies are understandable when one
expands upon earlier macro-level theories by adding within-state
micro-foundations. When domestic institutions constrain a leader to
require a broad base of supportas is true in most democracies
then private rewards are an inefficient way to retain power.
Democratic leaders would have to spread these rewards across so
many people that each would receive too little for the benefits to
influence their loyalty to the incumbent. In such a situation, it is
more efficient for leaders to rely on public goods as their best means
to retain office. When political institutions compel a leader to
depend on many supporters, so that a bundle of public goods is the
reward for retaining the incumbent, the institutions of governance
induce weak loyalty to the incumbent. After all, everyone benefits
from public goods, whether they support the incumbent or not.

Conversely, when a leader needs backing from only a few people to
stay in power, the few are expected to be loyal both because they
are well rewarded with private benefits and because they face a high
risk of losing those privileges if a challenger topples the incumbent
regime. Thus it is that resource allocationsincluding provisions for
national defenseare induced by domestic political institutions
rather than by international compulsions, culture, or the luck of the
draw in leaders.

Extracts from the article Game Theory, Political Economy, and the
Evolving Study of War and Peace published in the American Political
Science Review, November 2006 by BRUCE BUENO DE MESQUITA
associated with the New York University, Hoover Institution and
Stanford University.
Labels: game theory, political economy
SEZs: Handle With Care To Power Growth

Since early childhood, I have always been a dreamer at heart. In
1978, during a train ride from Bombay to Jabalpur enroute to
Mandla, my maternal hometown, I imagined what it would be like
having a 100km by 10km industrial corridor between Pipariya and
Jabalpur on the lines of the famous Ruhr Valley of Germany. Ruhr
valley is famous for its industrial history, originally based on coal
mining and steel production and now benefiting from its industrial
mix of energy production, environmental technologies and modern
service industries. Ecological and economical problems, mainly the
traumatic coal crisis in the 1960s, destroyed confidence and
optimism. Most coal mines in the Ruhr Valley were shut down and
the number of jobs was halved. Unemployment and social unrest
were just some of the more pressing problems.

In the past decades considerable effort has lead to modernization
and diversification of the economic base at the Ruhr. Nowadays, the
'Ruhrpott' is once more a thriving region and an enormous urban
area. Bochum, Dortmund, Duisburg and Essen form an inter-
connecting metropolis. The old industrial ruins have been converted
into cultural venues. Ancient mine 'Zeche Zollverein' and can-like
'Gasometer Oberhausen' are just some of the highlights of the
modern Ruhr Valley area.

One of the things Germany has done right in the Ruhr is to invest
heavily in higher education and research. Until 1965, the Ruhr had no
universities. Now it boasts five universities and seven advanced
schools of applied sciences. In addition, 13 cutting-edge research
institutes have sprung up in the Ruhr since the early 1990s, including
Frauenhofer and Max-Planck, thanks to $110 million a year in federal
and state funding. State and local governments also are channeling
funds into cleaning up the smokestack industry graveyards and
seeding new technology parks with startups in fields such as medical
technology, computer services, biotech, renewable energy, e-
logistics, and environmental technology. Bochum's growing talent
pool drew Finnish mobile phone maker Nokia to locate its only
German factory nearby, creating 2,300 jobs.

Indias new SEZs are precisely aimed at creating this employment
and exports. Some of them are already making news, like Dahej. The
Special Economic Zone (SEZ) at Dahej has earned a pride of place
among the top 25 best global economic zones, as per a global survey
of 700-odd free economic zones of the future' by Foreign Direct
Investment bimonthly magazine published by the Financial Times
Group. The multi-product SEZ at Dahej on a fast trajectory growth for
the last five years is ranked 23rd and is the only one from India.
Situated on the coast of Gulf of Cambay, Dahej SEZ is spread over
1,700 hectares having attracted investment of nearly Rs.20,000-crore
and providing employment to 22,000. When fully functional, Dahej
PCPIR, falling on the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC), is
likely to touch export target of Rs.62,000-crore.

The even greater success story that has been reported is the
doubling and more of exports from the new special economic zones.
Exports from 111 such zones totalled $49 billion in 2009-10, up 123
per cent from the $22 billion earned in the previous year. Total
exports last year, at $176 billion, were about 5 per cent lower than in
the previous year. If you take out the SEZ numbers for the two years,
then non-SEZ exports fell from $163 billion to $127 billion a sharp
drop of 22 per cent. Continuation of tax exemptions for SEZ units
would undermine the effectiveness of the new direct tax laws.
Defenders of the SEZ scheme, on the other hand, point out that the
cost of preventing the exports sector from a virtual collapse in 2009-
10 was a paltry Rs 5,200 crore by way of income-tax revenues, and Rs
3,200 crore of indirect tax revenues, which is what the government
lost on account of the tax concessions given to SEZ units.

In view of this, the Central Board of Excise and Customs (CBEC)
recommended an overhaul of the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) Act
2005 saying it has detected gross violations of duty and tax
concessions causing it to suffer a revenue loss of Rs 1,75,000 crore to
date. Broadly, the CBEC report has sought the removal of numerous
exemptions, drawbacks and concessions that have turned SEZs into
tax-avoidance conduits for importers and exporters without any
genuine business to back them. The CBECs revenue loss estimate Rs
1,75,000 crore has been derived from concessions extended for
capital goods and raw material procured by functioning SEZs
developers and those that have been approved and are being set up
(SEZs in the process of starting operations have to provide import
estimates). The CBEC had estimated an overall revenue loss of Rs
3,50,000 crore involved in the creation of all SEZs since 2006, when
the Act was passed.

The basic motive behind developing a special economic zone like SEZ
in India or SEZ in China, primarily in the developing countries is to
attract mass foreign investments in the country. India Real Estate
Investments have attracted huge foreign funds and thus the special
economic zones in India have increased by and large. The SEZ norms
and rules vary from country to country and region to region. SEZ land
involved also decides the SEZ policy for the SEZ approvals. The SEZ
act 2005 announced the SEZ policy in India for setting up of any
special economic zone in India. This special economic zone act 2005
set the guidelines and procedures for acquisition of SEZ land and SEZ
development following the proper SEZ laws. Further amendments
were made through SEZ Act 2006 and SEZ policy 2007.

The SEZ history dates back to 1965 when the first export processing
zone was set up in Kandla, Maharashtra. That was the instigation of
SEZ's in India. The SEZ Act in 2005 established India Special Economic
Zones formally. SEZ notification as mentioned in the SEZ Act includes:
* To augment additional economic activity by attracting foreign
direct investments
* To promote exports of goods and services
* To promote investment from domestic and foreign sources
* To create more employment opportunities
* To develop infrastructure facilities of global standards

SEZ India Benefits
* SEZ's offer economic progress to the area, the local inhabitants and
the country as a whole
* Exemption from payment of stamp duty and registration fees on
the lease/license of plots to the SEZ developer.
* External commercial borrowings of upto 500 million USD a year
without any restriction of maturity to the SEZ developers.

SEZ Disadvantages
Special economic zones and the SEZ projects have instigated certain
SEZ controversy and a SEZ debate regarding the SEZ Disadvantages:
* Revenue losses due to various tax exemptions and tax benefits
awarded to the India special economic zones.
* Most Real Estate Developers In India are interested in setting up a
SEZ to cash in the india real estate bubble by acquiring SEZ land at
cheap rates and creating a land bank for themselves

Presently around 14 major special economic zones are functional in
India:
* Santa Cruz, Mumbai, Maharashtra
* Cochin, Kerala
* Kandla And Surat in Gujarat
* Chennai, Tamil Nadu
* Vishakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh
* Falta And Salt Lake in West Bengal
* Noida, Greater Noida in Uttar Pradesh
* Indore, Madhya Pradesh
* Jaipur, Rajasthan

Owing to the mass attraction of SEZ's in terms of the SEZ benefits or
advantages, major Indian conglomerates are jumping into the SEZ
development bandwagon. Some of the names that deserve mention
here are Mahindra & Mahindra with Mahindra World City in Chennai
and Reliance Industries along with Haryana Government and coming
up Special Economic Zones by leading real estate builders and
developers in India like Unitech India and DLF. The newer areas
attracting SEZ development are Navi Mumbai, Manesar, Gurgaon,
Noida, Indore, Dehradun, Kanpur, Kochi, Nandigram, Surat, Nagpur,
surrounding areas of Pune, Goa, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Jaipur, and
Karnataka.
Labels: SEZs
Saturday, January 7, 2012
Republican Mitt Romney most likely to be next US President

Mitt Romney goes into Iowa Caucus stronger than ever, looking more
presidential. Mitt Romney knows how to find common ground with
others, compromise and get his programmes through. Romney goes
into Iowa leading the polls. The last poll, on the eve of Iowa, shows
Romney with 24% of likely caucus goers. Ron Paul, the libertarian
Texan has 22% and making a surprise showing as the new
Conservative Evangelical wing's choice is former Pennsylvania
senator Rick Santorum with 15%. This is a year all about beating
Obama. Republicans and many independents (who have joined the
Tea Party in droves) are scared of another four years of Obama. Four
years as a lame duck, devil may care, I plan to leave America in my
image as an EU satellite state, with massive social change,
entitlement spending, socialised medicine, whether they want-it-or-
not.
Republicans are slowly realising that and will probably come around
quicker than expected. If Romney wins Iowa, and then backs that up
with a win in New Hampshire --where he is a local boy and stands at
40% in some polls, that will give him a strong out-of-the-gate
showing. Even if he comes in second or third in Iowa, a win in New
Hampshire will still give him a strong start. However, they state, 'we
felt compelled to make an endorsement in light of a counter-
productive effort to stop Mitt Romney among some disparate
elements on the right--often based on a religious intolerance of Mr.
Romney's Mormon faith. We also think the notion that the Tea Party
will support a 3rd party candidate after Mitt Romney becomes the
Republican nominee, a notion most often advanced by the
mainstream media, must be discredited.' They believe that the 'only
way to defeat President Obama, whose policies are an anathema to
conservatism and the Tea Party Movement, is to rally around his
strongest opponent - Mitt Romney.'
The Republican operatives who created Tea Party Express, the
leading political action committee of the tea party movement,
recently launched a separate PAC called the Campaign to Defeat
Barack Obama. By creating the independent group, the organizers
can raise more money and be a stronger force in the upcoming
presidential race. The new group has the ambitious goal of
organizing 1 million people against the president through television
ads, online petitions and grass-roots events. More than 46,000
people have signed the groups online petition to defeat Barack
Obama since January. We want to be the aggressive, independent
group that goes after him and stands up to the Obama campaign,
said Ryan Gill, the PACs vice president.
Romney views India as potentially profitable for U.S. marketing and
investment, due to its flourishing economy and huge population.
Romney said in 2005 that although outsourcing to countries like
India is a problem, we'll see new opportunities created selling
products there. We'll have a net increase in economic activity, just as
we did with free trade.
Mitt Romney is a member of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day
Saints, members of which are commonly known as Mormons or LDS
(Latter-day Saint). In addition to missionary work in France in the
1960s under the tutelage of Wesley L. Pipes, Romney has served as a
bishop, and has also been a stake president in his church. In
accordance with LDS doctrine, as bishops and stake presidents are
lay positions in his church, Romney received no compensation or
money for his years of service in those positions. Also in accordance
to his religious beliefs, Romney abstains from alcohol and smoking.
Romney has expressed his faith in Jesus Christ as his "Lord and
Savior" openly to evangelical Christian groups. He has received
support from evangelical Christians.
Mitt Romney's delivered his "Faith in America" speech on December
6, 2007. Romney's campaign billed the speech as extolling American
freedom of worship while helping to satisfy public curiosity about
how Romney's strain of religious devotion would inform presidential
governance. Romney's speech gave primacy to the American
Constitutional right of religious liberty, which produces cultural
diversity and vibrancy of dialog. He called for public
acknowledgments of God such as within Holidays religious displays.
Romney said, "Freedom requires religion just as religion requires
freedom." He cited a religious nature to historic abolitionists'
campaigns, the campaign for American Civil Rights, and the
contemporary campaign for the Right to Life. Romney advocated
maintenance of a separation of Church and State, stating that he, as
president, would decline directives from churches' hierarchies,
including that of the LDS church.
Romney said while there are those who would prefer he indicated he
holds his LDS faith merely as a tradition, actually he believes in his
faith and tries to live according to its teachings, and while
sacraments and confession of Romney's "church's beliefs about
Christ may not all be the same as those of other faiths," he still holds
Christ "the Son of God and Savior of mankind." Romney declined to
address further the specifics of his Mormonism, implying that any
compulsion to do so would counter the Constitutional prohibition of
a religion test for political office.
The similarities between Hinduism and Mormonism are less
apparent, being on the level of abstract theology and worldview, but
are all the more remarkable. For example, the Hindu idea of karma
and reincarnation is similar to Mormonism, with its doctrine of pre-
existence and eternal progression. In both cases you have lived a
previous life, and your station in this life depends on how good you
were in the previous life. Thus, Mormons could traditionally look
upon dark skin as a sign of pre-life sinfulness. Also in both cases, this
life is not the end-all, and does not result in a permanent judgment.
Mormons teach that you will have continual future chances to get
close to God, just as Hindus believe that you will have many future
lives to pursue your oneness with Brahman.
Mormonism and Hinduism also share a materialistic view of the
spiritual realm. In Mormonism, it is based on the idea of a material
God, a God who has a physical body. If God is a material being, the
question then arises, who created the material, how did the material
get here if God himself is material? The implication is that the
material already existed. This is just like Hinduism, which says plainly
that the universe is eternal and uncreated. Mormonism also teaches
that in your future lives, you yourself can become a god. This is again
similar to Hinduism, which also says that in your future lives, you can
become a god.
Like Hinduism, Mormonism is a make-it-up-as-you-go religion, which
can change to fit whatever new circumstances it finds itself in.
Hinduism can do this because it lacks any foundational, authoritative
teacher or theology, and brazenly absorbs any religious challenge it
faces (such as proclaiming the Buddha to be an incarnation of
Vishnu, or that Jesus learned his miracles from the gurus of India).

Indias nuclear triad to counter first-strike attack
India will take a big step towards achieving a credible nuclear
weapon triad in February when its first indigenous nuclear
submarine INS Arihant begins sea trials off Visakhapatnam. The "sea-
acceptance trials'' (SATS) of INS Arihant are slated to begin "towards
end-February'' after the completion of its ongoing harbour-
acceptance trials (HATS). With INS Arihant's induction, India for the
first time will brandish the most effective third leg of the nuclear
triad - the ability to fire nukes from land, air and sea. The first two
legs revolve around the Agni family of ballistic missiles and fighters
like Sukhoi-30MKIs and Mirage-2000s jury-rigged to deliver nuclear
warheads. Only the Big-5 has nuclear triads till now, with a total of
over 140 nuclear-powered submarines. America leads the pack with
71, followed by Russia with about 40, while China, the UK and France
have around 10-12 each.
A nuclear triad refers to a nuclear arsenal which consists of three
components, traditionally strategic bombers, ICBMs and SLBMs. The
purpose of having a three-branched nuclear capability is to
significantly reduce the possibility that an enemy could destroy all of
a nation's nuclear forces in a first-strike attack; this, in turn, ensures
a credible threat of a second strike, and thus increases a nation's
nuclear deterrence. While traditional nuclear strategy holds that a
nuclear triad provides the best level of deterrence from attack, in
reality, most nuclear powers do not have the military budget to
sustain a full triad. Only the United States and Russia have
maintained nuclear triads for most of the nuclear age. Both the US
and the Soviet Union composed their triads along the same lines,
including the following components: Bomber aircraft capable of
delivering nuclear bombs (carrier-based or land-based; armed with
bombs or missiles); Land-based missiles (MRBMs or ICBMs) and
Ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). The triad also gives the
commander the possibility to use different types of weapons for the
appropriate strike.
ICBMs allow for a long-range strike launched from a controlled or
friendly environment. If launched from a fixed position, such as a
missile silo, they are vulnerable to a first strike, though their
interception once aloft is substantially difficult, Some ICBMs are
either rail or road mobile. SLBMs, launched from submarines, allow
for a greater chance of survival from a first strike, giving the
commander a second-strike capability. Some long-range submarine-
launched cruise missiles are counted towards triad status, this was
the first type of submarine-launched strategic second-strike nuclear
weapon before ballistic missile submarines became available.
Strategic bombers have greater flexibility in their deployment and
weaponry. They can serve as both a first- and second-strike weapon.
Labels: mitt romney, nuclear triad
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Next Two Years Will Be Crucial For India's Foreign/Intelligence
Departments

The next two years are crucial for India in terms of foreign policy and
intelligence operations. Why? Because in the next 1-2 years there
will be a change in leadership starting with India itself, US, China,
Bangladesh, Pakistan, Afghanistan and some 2-3 more countries. So
should Indias intelligence agencies be caught with its pants down.
No! India should in earnest start collecting data and information on
the likes and dislikes, policies, stance, national and world view of the
new aspirants and the parties they represent in the respective
countries. India, starting today, should put its foreign office and
external intelligence agencies on high alert and should direct them to
gather all possible information---personal, professional, social,
public---on the candidates and the parties which are likely to come
into power in these countries. This information gathered will be
useful for India to articulate its stand and policies when the time is
ripe.

CAN THERE BE AN ASIAN CENTURY? There has been talk that the
21
st
century will be Asia's, just as the 20
th
century was America's and
the 19
th
century was Britain's. The 20
th
century was Americas not by
default or accident but by design because it willfully crafted a world
strategy for global dominance by building crucial alliances and
associations. So we saw the formation of NATO, the Asia-Pacific
alliance, and so on. But does Asia have such alliances in place? Not
by the looks of it. The only Asian body in operation is the Asian
Development Bank. There have been regional associations that have
flourished but nothing on a pan-Asian level. Is it necessary? I cant
say, because Asian countries are ideologically diverse. In this context,
India should strengthen the SAARC, BIMSTEC, Indian Ocean Rim
Association for Regional Cooperation, etc. We should seek to have a
influence and be able to shape events in a radius of 4000-5000 kms
from our shoreline and land borders.

WELL THOUGHT-OUT REFORMS NECESSARY: The economic reforms
of 1991 have definitely helped many people in India become
wealthy. However, the second wave of economic reforms should be
designed to bring riches to the poor, give a boost to MSMEs and
generate large-scale employment, build a strong middle and lower
middle class, improving the human development indices levels and
bringing more people out of the poverty index. Reforms are badly
needed in the labour sector, the administrative sector, the police
sector and policies must be made attractive to draw FII and foreign
investments. Goods and Services Tax and pension reforms should
also be implemented at the earliest. What happened to SEZs? No
one is hearing about them. The setting up of SEZs and their
becoming operational and functional must be speeded up to boost
manufacturing in the country. In the manufacturing sector, a focus
should be on small and medium sized enterprises.

DATA, INFORMATION & KNOWLEDGE CENTRE: Indias politicians are
hopelessly and inadequately informed. Parliamentarians, legislators
and councilors are not getting the right information and advice to
implement far reaching changes. Legislators are politicians in India
who have scant regard for learning and knowledge. But we should
always remember that the 21
st
century is a data, knowledge and
information age. Our legislators are woefully ill equipped to handling,
storing, processing and analyzing data, information and knowledge.
Each councilor, legislator, and parliamentarian at the municipal, state
and national level must have an office of 6-7 experts on economy,
business, industry, education, health, security at the municipal, state
and national level and this team should give our legislators sound
advice which can help them frame policies and take the necessary
action for the welfare and good of their respective municipalities,
state, district or the nation. Officers of the Indian Information
Services along with experts from the private, public and civic life
should man these services.

Romney's Win Could Spark Another Round of Cold War

Undoubtedly, the highlight of the fortnight is the American
Presidential elections. What does it mean for India and the world?
While both Obama and Romney are affable and good gentlemen,
there is a not so subtle difference in their policies and stances. Lets
look at defense. Obama wants a cut in defense spending called
sequestration to the tune of $1 trillion in the next 10 years. This will
affect the small players in the US defence industry. Obama also
wants friendly allies to up their defense spending so that the US can
divert and channelize the money saved in propping up its domestic
economy. Lets look at Mitt Romney. Romney still sees Russia as the
No. 1 challenger if not the No. 1 enemy. He has promised that
American defense spending will be accelerated to the tune of 4% of
the GDP. This means an increase of over $2 trillion in the next 4
years. Romney also says that on being elected, he will declare China
as the biggest currency manipulator. Romney wants a powerful
America which plays a major role in maintaining security in the
world. He wants to build new frigates, new bombers and aircraft
carriers. Meanwhile, Russia has said that it does not accept US
domination of world affairs and is against its encroachment in
Eastern Europe. Russia plans to increase its defense spending by 50%
by 2015. What is the prognosis if Romney wins? One, that US and
Russia will be again at loggerheads if Romney wins and this could
lead to the start of Cold War II. Second, what does it mean for India if
Romney wins? India will be placed in a highly awkward position.
While Romneys win will be good for the US and he might just well
help America regain its lost glory making it more assertive on the
world stage, an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation between Russia and
the US could start another arms race between the two superpowers.
If Romney wins, the best thing India could do is to remain neutral,
however, favoring the US since it shares democratic and liberal
values and a free market economy but not altogether ignoring
Russia, since Russia has helped India to a great extent in the 70s and
80s. But if Russia builds a nexus with China, then we should go all out
in support of and back the US, EU, Japan and Australia.

Monday, October 29, 2012
Does India Have a Policy to Counter Cyber Threat?

Like always, the leader in global trends and ideas, the US, has fast
detected the threat of cyber terrorism and cyber war on its soil. Leon
Panetta, the US defence secretary, recently said that the cyber threat
was more visible now following the Iraq/Afghanistan wars and could
cripple the country public and private computer systems. Shamoon,
a malware that infected Saudi Arabias computer systems in the
countrys largest oil/gas producer was cited as an example. Panetta
also warned of a Pearl Harbour type cyber attack that could take the
US by storm. Not surprisingly, the US Congress is in the verge of
passing some bills seeking greater military role in cyber security both
in the public and private spaces. Cyber attacks are capable of
crippling a countrys energy, transportation, financial and banking
systems. Is India alive to the threat. Even though 60 percent of our
country is living in the 17
th
century, a small part is up to date with the
latest in modernity. Should the government not set up a division for
defensive and offensive positions in cyber security and cyber
warfare? There must be joint cooperation between the government,
public and private sector to secure Indias computer networks.
Meanwhile, the US is getting ready to implement the country biggest
defence cut in the next 10 years known as sequestration.
Approximately 1 trillion dollars will be cut in military expenditures.
India Must Make Markets Attractive To Draw Investments

For global investors, the BRICs are losing their sheen even as other
emerging markets, especially Indonesia and Philippines become
more attractive. What are the reasons behind this? Both Indonesia
and Philippines have grown at a robust 6-6.5 per cent per annum for
the last 2-3 years. Their domestic consumption demand is almost
two thirds of the GDP. Philippines, with a median age of 22 and with
a large English speaking population is fast becoming a more
attractive BPO destination than India. Rating agencies such as Fitch,
S&P and Moodys have raised the credit rating of both these
countries. In this scenario, India cannot rest on its past laurels and
must create conditions necessary to attract foreign investment so
badly needed to augment infrastructure projects. There are
approximately 40 other emerging markets who are moving up the
value chain with the doggedness of a bulldozer, and unless our
capital markets look attractive the money from global investors
could definitely go elsewhere.
World War III Could Happen in Asia in The Next 5-10 Years

As global economic woes continue to haunt world leaders, the world
itself seems to be on the brink of a precipice and a large full scale
war in Asia. What are the factors that determine this prognosis? Lets
look at the EU where the sovereign debt crisis has gone out of
control with another bailout being mulled for Greece and also for
Spain. Analysts believe that France and Italy may also go the way of
Greece and Spain. The situation is so bad in Spain that some
Spaniards were found rummaging for food in the countrys
supermarket trashbins. The worlds largest economic block, the EU is
imploding. Lets look at the US. While polls show that the US could
avoid a fiscal cliff, it has record unemployment, its budget deficit is at
an all time high, and housing transactions have fallen. Yet the
economic growth in the US could be better the next quarter.
Democrat Barack Obamas administration is pitching for budget cuts
in the military and is urging countries in EU, South America and Asia
to up their military budgets as the US having spent considerably in
the wars on Iraq and Afghanistan is increasingly wary of providing
security umbrella to friendly countries. Not surprisingly in Asia,
countries such as South Korea, Indonesia, Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand,
Singapore have increased their defence budgets and are going on a
weapons acquisition drive much vary of a increasingly assertive,
secretive and belligerent China. Besides, this the tussle between
China and Japan over a clutch of islands which are rich in
gas/minerals could spin out of control. Nationalist feelings are at an
all time high in both these countries. World economic growth has
been slashed to 3.3 per cent as a whole, with the advanced
economies set to grow at 1.3 per cent and developing economies set
to grow at 5.3 per cent, the IMF said recently. Growth in the world
economy could increase marginally if the world fixes its unregulated
hedge and derivatives trading, the World Bank said. What is
necessary is accommodative monetary policies, steady fiscal
consolidation and fixing the financial systems to spur growth, the
IMF has advised. But the question is what factors point to a full scale
blown out war in Asia or World War III. Some of the points above
mentioned need to be factored but also the fact that
Israel/Palestinian problems, Iran, Pakistan, Chinas problems with
Japan and southeast Asian countries, the deteriorating global
economic order, the slowing of growth in the drivers of global
growth namely China and India. The global economic recession is
indeed very deep and entrenched and the world stands at where it
stood in 1933, just before the start of the World War II.

Wednesday, October 10, 2012
Riband Capitalism is Under Attack in Many Parts of The World

The current global economic recession could last for another 5-6
years, IMF chief economist said recently in Hungary. Besides, IMF has
also pared the growth rate for India to 4.9 percent. What do these
two developments portend for India? First, the assessments are
realistic and quite accurate and therefore, these factors need to be
taken into account while making policy or plans. By opening up more
sectors of the economy, the GoI will help attract more investment
into India. But economic reforms must be carried out gradually and
deliberately keeping the welfare of the vast underprivileged in India.
Will reforms lead to greater job creation, will it bring in necessary
technological and managerial expertise into India which the country
is currently lacking? Will they help raise the per capita GDP in India?
Will they help the common man in India to raise his income levels in
a lawful way? Will they help in boosting infrastructure in vital areas?
Riband capitalism is under attack in many parts of the world, and it is
generally felt that the working class is paying for the priviliges the
affluent enjoyed on borrowings or credit. Certain aspects of
capitalism may not necessarily be good for India and we need to
adapt this concept suitably keeping our peculiar conditions in mind.
An open economy where entrepreneurship can thrive and where
businesses can flourish is good but at the same time there must be
safety nets in the form of social security. We need an environment
where Indian businesses thrive and can compete with the best in the
world.

Russia, Pakistan Ties Should Not Alarm India
Russia and Pakistan have recently exchanged trade delegations and
there have been quite a few high profile visists from one to the
other. This should not be a concern for India. As India embraces a
more liberal, open economy and a pluralistic democratic
environment we will naturally gravitate towards the US, EU, Japan
and Australia where we have shared values. Russia, sensing this will
also balance this with forging alliances with those with whom it was
not so cosy earlier. However, Russia has helped India a lot in the 60s,
70s, and 80s in basic industries. We should value this help which the
erstwhile Soviet Union extended to India and should maintain a
healthy and trusting relationship with Russia. We should push for
more ties in those sectors where there can be transfer of technology
in key areas. Russia has supported India on many issues in the UN on
many occassions and we should never forget that. However things
have changed in the last 20-25 years. The world is a lot more
different place. The Soviet-US cold war is over and now we are
entering a phase of Sino-US cold war. Without overtly appearing to
be anti-Chinese, we should have our rooks and knights in place and
play in concert with democratic nations. Relationships even with
countries espousing different ideologies can be carried out provided
it serves our interest from trade, economics or commerce. Should
China and Russia cosy up beyond the current levels, then we should
not hesitate to ally with US, Japan and Australia. Gain some, lose
some. Gains in some relationships will invariably lead to losses in
some other relationships. But so be it.

Tuesday, October 2, 2012
War Looms Over Asia, Global Economic Outlook Bleak

As governments around the world do little to match policy with
action, the global economy could slow further in 2013, the IMF has
said. The US Presidential elections in November this year could
determine the future course of US fiscal policy and hence, the world
economy. A military option being considered for Syria/Iran problems
could spark another round of hike in petrol prices. Military conflict
looms over tensions between China/Japan over Senkaku/Daioyu
islands. Climate change has cost the world $1.3 trillion, 1.6% fall in
annual GDP and 400,000 deaths, the DARA group reported. Data
from around the world show that the US/EU may be entering
another round of recession putting pressure on growth rates of
BRICS/emerging markets. Among emerging markets, CIVETS, MIST,
SLIMA could be the drivers of growth, says Marc Mobius. As China
rearranges its economy from export-led to domestic consumption-
led, new economy Chinese stocks look attractive compared to old
economy stocks. While emerging market currencies strengthend a
while mid last week, the actions of Central banks in the developed
economies might weaken currencies in the emerging markets as they
may be devalued. Indias regionalism and politics of appeasement
should not in any way weaken a strong centre. The government
should be seen as decisive and purposeful. Oil/gas sourcing should
be diversified and alternative fuel/energy sources should be
found. Reforms should be carried out in steady steps keeping the
Indian conditions in mind.

Do what is right: Are the national parties in India losing their sheen?
Looks like. This is pertinent because they seem to be obsessed with
gaining/controlling/retaining power and all their actions are
determined by that. But you dont get the prize by doing what others
expect you to do, you dont get the applause by playing to the gallery,
you dont win the game by how the spectators want you to play.
Parties must determine their policies/actions based on what is good
and right for the country and the people. The character of a nation
develops when it does the right thing under tough and difficult times.
Thats the yardstick. The right actions or policies can vary from time
to time. What is relevant today may not be relevant tomorrow. So
how do you determine what is right? That can be based on how one
wants to see the present. Contextual intelligence and situational
awareness is very important in this case. Lets see what are the 5
most important issues plaguing India right now. These are:
education, employment, territorial integrity, economic growth and
good governance. Address these issues first. Actions must be made
on boosting the growth indices in these areas. History will not judge
you by how long you ruled, but how well you ruled and what you
delivered. History will judge you by how you made things happen
and how you changed the course of action. Remember, you dont win
the game just because you want to win it, but because you have
mastered the game, its rules and because you know how to play it
well. The good player will always win, whereas the one who does not
win is invariablly because he does not know how toplay well.

Prove your credentials: There is a lot of talk in the Indian media
about the rise of regional chieftains/satraps in Indian politics. Who
are the chief players in this arena? They are: Narendra Modi,
Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mamta Banerjee, Nitish Kumar, Biju Patnaik,
etc. In one way this is a good thing that the country is having good
managers in the state. Its good for the state and their people. No
doubt, this will help the overall development of India. But their also
have been talks by the media of some of them aspiring for the prime
ministers position. I think these allegations are false because none
of them have openly, consciously said that they aspire to be prime
ministers. Lets face it: at any given point of time there are atleast
half a dozen people in India who could be potential prime ministers.
But at any given time there can be only one prime minister. Regional
chieftains can certainly become prime ministers if they demonstrate
a legacy of good governance, able administration and statesman like
approach. Picking on petty issues only makes one look like a petty
player, not a national player. This national outlook, if they aspire for
the prime ministership, should be reflected in their talk, behaviour
and actions. This will be reflected in what their world view and what
their national view is. I dont think India will ever fall short of prime
ministerial candidates. Surely a billion Indians can put a half dozen
people for this position.

Saturday, September 29, 2012
India Growth To Remain Muted For Next 6-12 Months

Economy to Remain Tepid: The US remains in a fiscal cliff and the
world economy has entered the twilight zone. Manufacturing has
slowed in the US, EU, and in China it has been the slowest in the last
quarter. Yet, emerging market stocks and investment look attractive,
so far. One must now give up aspirations for 6-8 per cent GDP
growth and settle for 4-5.5 per cent growth for the next 12 months.
To boost consumer spending, the government should lower interest
rates, and release more liquidity in the market. Reforms must carry
on at a steady pace without shocks or otherwise India risks being the
only emerging market to be rated as junk. Subsidies must be only for
the 20 percent of the poorest and they must be scrapped gradually in
phases. Borrowing on credit must be curtailed. Credit card
companies must make stricter norms for issuing such cards and
payment defaulters who have a history should be denied credit
cards. Focus should be on reigning in inflation, creating employment,
boosting exports and increasing revenues. In military developments,
China unveiled its latest stealth fighter the J-21 which has striking
similarities to the US F22. China clearly is in a different league and
aspires global, challenging US/Russia/EU. Chinas military industrial
complex is very advanced with over 1,000 companies. Its defence
budget currently is $150 billion and is slated to rise to $250 billion by
2015. Elsewhere, BAe/EADS is mulling merger to create a behemoth
rivaling Boeing. The slowdown is a good time for
mergers/acquisitions.

Curtailing Corruption: Over the last two years, the 3G spectrum
scam and coal block allocations have rocked the nation. The moot
question is: why do scams happen? How much does a man and his
family need to live a comfortable life in a metropolis, a city, a town
or a village? I would say it would be seven times the market rent of a
2-3 BHK home in a decent neighbourhood. If that is the case, then
why are people in power clamouring for spoils in the region of
thousands of crores? Is it greed, desire, keeping up with the joneses,
future security, leaving a legacy for their children, etc? Either way,
the argument for accumulating wealth in the region of hundreds or
thousands of crores cannot be justified. In a country where 60
percent of the masses can barely afford a meal three times a day, a
shelter for themselves and decent clothing, having some people
garnering thousands of crores is unforgivable. The solution is to be
found at the hiring stage. Public servants, whether legislators,
bureaucrats or judiciary must be hired at the initial stage based on
their attitude and psychological makeup for being fit to render public
service. There are hundreds of ways to ensure that only people who
do not covet great wealth are hired as public servants.

Natural Resource Allocation: There has been a hue and cry recently
over faulty assessment and allocation of national property and
resources like spectrum and coal. Is it so difficult to find a just and
fair method for allocation of natural resources? If the governments
fundamentals and basics are grounded in reality and are clear, then it
becomes not so difficult. The questions to answer are: who are the
major stakeholders in natural resources. The answer is: primarily the
local population, state and central governments, and the private
sector. Benefits to each stakeholder must be commensurate with his
percentage of importance. Thus, the local population which has been
staying for hundreds of years must be regarded as the prime
stakeholder, followed by the state/central government and then the
private players. In terms of percentage of financial benefits this could
be 30 per cent for the local population, 50 per cent for the
state/central governments and 20 per cent for the private industry. If
you have a situation where the private players corner the majority of
the spoils at the expense of the local population, you are creating a
likely situation for unrest and heart burn. Besides the state treasury
would also get bankrupt. Despite, simple arithmetics, yet resource
allocation is highly skewed because the system is geared to enriching
a few private players and political leaders at the expense of the state
treasury and local inhabitants.

Need to Fight Crime: We are no longer safe in Delhi, is the rising tide
of comments by many Delhiites. Rape, muder, dacoity, abduction,
kidnapping , robberies are on the rise. The newspapers are full of
them and one gets a nauseating feeling in the morning when you
read the newspapers. Newspapers must have a pullout for the crime
section, which subscribers have the option to take or not to take. Its
necessary to introduce the study of moral science in the secondary
school stage as is the practice in many convent schools. Further,
every school must have a psychology and career counsellor to assist
disturbed students in putting their emotional, psychological, family
life in order. Solve it just in time and nip it in the bud. A situation
should not come when citizens feel that the state is ineffective in
providing security. Hiring of constables and junior police officers
must be done strictly on merit and aptitude and not on nepotism or
bribing, as has been reported very often. The beat constable is the
one who is the face of the police force, and he must be a strong
person with good moral character, integrity and be service oriented.
He must be paid well, his family should be looked after well, and he
should not be subjected to round the clock duty or be forced to do
double shifts. In short the police force needs to be augmented.
Further, citizens can also step in. Patrolling by private, well trained
guards by RWAs must be stepped up.
Thursday, May 17, 2012
Asia Ups Defence Spending, Becoming Increasingly Militarised

It might be big business in the developed and industrialised countries
but the defence industry is flexing its muscle with greater intent
when it comes to displaying, developing and selling their wares to
countries in Asia. That was aptly displayed at the recent Defence
Services Asia (DSA) expo in Malaysia, where 850 companies from 45
countries participated in the four-day event, showing the variety of
arsenal from handguns to jetfighters. The reason for such a display
boils down to what drives the industry spending. And it's no surprise
much of that is taking place in Asia.

A report by IHS Jane's, a defence industry publication, has forecast
China's military spending will outstrip the combined total of Nato's
top eight members Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Turkey, Canada,
Spain and Poland excluding the United States by 2015. Furthermore,
growth in spending is taking off not just in China but also in South-
East Asia, which has spurred its spending.

A report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
shows that the region increased its defence spending by 13.5% last
year, to US$24.5billion. The figure is estimated to skyrocket to
US$40billion by 2016, with the report noting that Malaysia's defence
spending has also risen. As observers have noted, Asia will outspend
Europe this year. The London-based International Institute for
Strategic Studies (IISS) says in the think tank's The Military Balance
2012 annual report that China's spending has fuelled other growing
Asian states into pouring more funds into their military and defence.

According to the IISS, Asia, excluding Australia and New Zealand,
spent US$262billion on defence in 2011 with China alone accounting
for US$89billion compared with Nato's European members, which
spent about US$270billion. Asian countries increased their defence
budget by more than 3% in real terms last year, the IISS said. China
increased its share of total military expenditure on weapons in the
region to more than 30%.

Western analysts point to China's plans for naval "force projection"
to defend its growing economic interests in Africa and elsewhere,
and secure maritime lanes of communication. More immediately
significant is China's development of anti-satellite capacities, anti-
ship ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and cyber-warfare capabilities.
"Managing tensions in the South China Sea will be an increasing
challenge," said the IISS report.

Defence analysts also pointed to potential tensions between the US
and China being aggravated by Beijing refusing to agree to
confidence-building measures along the lines of those between the
US and the Soviet Union during the cold war. "China does not want
to give a seatbelt to the US," one defence analyst said. Australia,
Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam are all
investing in improving air and naval capacities, as are India, Japan
and South Korea. India, for instance, plans to boost maritime
capacities with submarines and aircraft carriers, said the IISS.

In Europe, defence budgets remain under pressure and cuts to
equipment programmes continue. Between 2008 and 2010 there
were reductions in defence spending in at least 16 European Nato
member states. In a significant proportion of these, cuts in real terms
exceeded 10%. According to a report from the Stockholm
International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Singapore is now the
fifth-largest arms importer in the world, bested only by some
obvious behemothsChina, India and Pakistanplus South Korea.
Singapore accounts for 4% of the worlds total spending on arms
imports. Its defence spending per head beats every country bar
America, Israel and Kuwait. This year $9.7 billion, or 24% of the
national budget, will go on defence.

These are striking figures, but then Singapore has been one of the
bigger spenders in the region since its rancorous split from Malaysia
in 1965. The difference now is that almost every country in South-
East Asia has embarked on a similar build-up, making it one of the
fastest-growing regions for defence spending in the world. Military
analysts at IHS Janes say that South-East Asian countries together
increased defence spending by 13.5% last year, to $24.5 billion. The
figure is projected to rise to $40 billion by 2016. According to SIPRI,
arms deliveries to Malaysia jumped eightfold in 2005-09, compared
with the previous five years. Indonesias spending grew by 84% in
that period.

Indonesia is spending $8 billion this year on defencestill rather
modest for a country of 240m, but up sharply from $2.6 billion in
2006. Much is going on new hardware and spare parts. The country
has acquired Russian and American warplanes, including F-16
fighters, vessels for its navy, and spare parts for its C-130 transport
planes. In January Indonesia signed a $1.1 billion deal for three
German-made diesel-electric submarines, and lawmakers are
debating whether to buy 100 Leopard tanks from the Netherlands.

Domestic political calculations are another factor behind the regions
defence splurge. Terence Lee at the National University of Singapore
argues that in countries where the armed forces have meddled in
politics, civilian politicians use larger defence budgets to buy political
compliance from the militaryThailand is a case in point. Singapore,
on the other hand, has a different motivation. It is the only country
in the region building its own high-tech arms industry. Singapore has
long sold weapons to other developing countries, but has recently
been winning its first large orders from Western armies too. ST
Engineering, the only South-East Asian firm in SIPRIs top 100
defence manufacturers, has sold over 100 Bronco (or Warthog)
armoured troop carriers to the British, for use in Afghanistan.

For all that, strategic concerns do count for something. For example,
the sea lanes leading to the Strait of Malacca are the lifeblood of
Singapores prosperity. And over the past decade, some may have
worried that America was distracted by war elsewhere. So the
growth of a Chinese blue-water navy has implications.

Strategic concerns also loom large for any country with a territorial
claim to the disputed South China Sea (see article), where Chinas
assertive stance has provoked a surge of spending by, for instance,
Vietnam. The country recently ordered six Kilo-class submarines from
Russia. Vietnam is also buying seven or so new frigates and corvettes
over the next decade. In the Philippines the government of President
Benigno Aquino almost doubled the defence budget last year, to
$2.4 billion.

Meanwhile, Russias deputy prime minister Dmitry Rogozin faces a
formidable challenge of modernising Russias military-industrial
complex. He should not be deterred in this vital national mission by
alarmists and doubters, says Aleksey Volodin. The strategy for the
development of the military-technical field will consist of two main
areas: the development of Russia's own production capacity and the
creation of joint ventures for the production of military equipment.

Also, Japan is building its military muscle to play a bigger role in Asia
and the rest of the world, and it is making its military might more
visible. Japan changed its defense policy last December to allow
Japanese companies to export weapons and collaborate with
countries other than its main ally, the US. During British Prime
Minister David Cameron's visit to Tokyo last week, it inked a deal
with Britain on jointly developing and building defense equipment. It
was Japan's first weapons-building covenant with a country other
than the United States since the World War II. Japan's desire to build
up its military strength has been fueled by the pivoting of the US'
strategic focus to the Asia-Pacific region.

Although Japan's Constitution forbids offensive military operations,
Japan has quietly built one of the most capable armed forces in the
world. It has more than 250,000 men and women in uniform and its
annual defense budget is about $56 billion, among the six largest in
the world. Japan is also extending its military presence overseas and
focusing on the operational flexibility of its forces.

Sources:
Richard Norton-Taylor/guardian.co.uk; By CHOONG EN
HAN, han@thestar.com.my; Aleksey Volodin, Military Review
Source: ITAR-TASS; Cai Hong (China Daily)

Thursday, April 19, 2012
India should strengthen IBSA within BRICS

In light of the slowdown in the US, EU and Japan, some 40-odd
emerging markets led by BRICS is driving global economic growth
today. The acronym BRIC, as originally coined by Jim ONeil of
Goldman Sachs ten years ago was meant to identify fast growing
economies which could offer attractive returns to foreign investors.
But with the addition of South Africa in 2010, the ambition of this
politically disparate group has grown manifold. My question is
simple: whats in it for India?

For starters, lets look at the aspirations of this bloc and its chief
frontrunnerChina. China is pushing the BRICS promise aggressively
and not without reason. Having outpaced Japan as the second-
largest economy in the world with a GDP of $5.9 trillion and the
worlds largest foreign exchange reserves of $3.3 trillion, China seeks
to establish itself as a challenger to US supremacy, have a greater say
in the World Bank and the IMF and establish renminbi as a reserve
currency.

Jim ONeil has fervently questioned the inclusion of South Africa in
this bloc. South Africa has a growth rate of just 2.5-3 per cent
compared to the average 6-10 per cent of China and India. Nigeria
was a more suitable candidate for this position, says Jim ONeil or
other emerging markets like Indonesia, Mexico, South Korea and
Turkey. But South Africa was invited in this bloc at the insistence of
China as it is a gateway to the African market for Chinese
manufactured products and its rich energy resources.

The fourth BRICS summit in Delhi recently has shown that the
worlds fastest growing economies can also cooperate on wide
ranging issues. For one, they want the emerging markets to have a
greater say in the running of the World Bank and the IMF. There is
also talk about putting up a consensus candidate from the emerging
markets to head these two institutions for long dominated by the US
and EU.

Second, the BRICS summit in New Delhi also stressed the need to set
up a South-South development Bank on the lines of the World Bank
to finance infrastructure projects in emerging markets. Consensus
was also reached on intra-BRICS trade in local currencies to cut down
on tariff costs. BRICS also put up a common front with regards to the
violence in Syria and its opposition to the US-led sanctions against
Iran for its nuclear programme. But there were no political or
strategic decisions.

Can there be? Russia is an authoritarian communist regime, China is
a single party communist state eschewing elections, while India,
Brasil and South Africa are thriving democracies. The BRICS promise
is being pushed aggressively by China because it wants to enlarge the
scope of the not-so-effective Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, its
bid to establish multi-polarity in the world and project itself as the
sole challenger to US supremacy.

Both US and India, the worlds oldest and the worlds largest
democracies are wary of Chinas growing economic clout and its
secretive weaponisation programme. Both want to contain China
which has traditionally been an expansionist power. India would do
well to stand solidly behind the US initiative of concentric triangle
comprising the US, Japan, India and Australia to form a security
counter bloc against China.

Should India play game with China? It could clearly be risky and
detrimental to Indias interests. India has a long standing border
dispute with China and a lost 1962 war, for long China has instigated
Pakistan and Bangladesh against India and has encouraged Maoist
terror on Indian soil, and occupies large parts of J&K. In this light,
IBSA (India, Brazil, South Africa) partnerships of thriving
democracies should not be dismissed but India should work harder
on strengthening IBSA within the so-called BRICS bloc.
Friday, January 27, 2012
Gandhi Family: Conscience Keepers and Custodians of the Congress
Party

The Indian National Congress (INC) Party is often referred to as the
Grand Old Dame of Indian politics. Despite being in power for the
larger period since the independence of India, the party has
deliberately maintained a certain amount of somberness. The partys
chief characteristic is that it eschews a public show of pomp and
splendour, something which is reflected in the way its leaders carry
themselveswith a certain amount of low keyness. You will never
find a Congressman mouthing loud about his accomplishments or
being extremely extravagant about his tastes in public. Congress
leaders are measured in their speech, they mind their manners and
are careful about the way they conduct themselves in public. This is
an innate quality among the Congress leaders which is well ingrained
through rigorous party discipline and by example of its top
leadership. Detractors say Congress leaders are carefull not to
outshine the Honbl Gandhi family and that they give the Gandhi
family members a high degree of reverence, both in public and in
private. I ask why not?

The Gandhi family has been associated with Indian politics for well
over 150 years. Among the partys various illustrious leaders, it is one
of the chief nay the prime families that have built the present day
Congress party. Erstwhile scions of the Gandhi family have been
prime ministers of India and have served the country with dedication
and commitment. There have been charges by the opposition of high
handedness, favouritism and wrongdoing against the family but this
charge is not well placed. For a family which is the chief holder of
political power in the country, the family members when both in
power or without have used their power carefully and responsibly.
By the way the Gandhi family members conduct themselves in
public, it can safely be ascertained that their mooring are firmly
placed in reality and that they dont have any misconceptions about
the fact that power in a democracy is by contract and not perpetual.
Often times, the Gandhi family has demonstrated leadership and
responsibility in the party when direction within the party was
missing. Whenever there is a void within the party the Gandhi family
members have always stepped in to fill the gap. What comes out is
that they are not so much interested in holding office of power but
they are more interested in serving the country and the public.
Power has often been thrust upon the family members and they
have never pursued it blatantly. To shoulder such heavy
responsibilities in the worlds largest democracy is no mean task.

The present arrangement within the UPA of having two centres of
responsibility according to me is a brilliant tactical solution to
governance in complex times. Under the Honbl Gandhi familys
guidance, the political aspect of running a coalition is working truly
well. The Gandhi familys political clout within the country has well
managed to keep the coalition intact. On the other hand, Honbl Dr
Manmohan Singhs erudite and academic background has given the
country one of Indias most well qualified prime ministers. Despite
protests over inflation and food price rise, Dr Manmohan Singh is
doing an excellent job. However I do feel that the path towards
liberalization should be carefully tread upon. I can say that life was
definitely much better for the common man in the sixties, seventies
and eighties. The rupee had considerable purchasing power, and
while salaries were nominal, goods were very affordable.
Liberalisation has to be managed well as it is being increasingly felt
that liberalization is benefiting the top 5 percent of society only and
has infact heightened the income disparity between the haves and
have nots. Honbl Smt Sonia Gandhi, as chairperson of the UPA and
President of the Indian National Congress, is managing the political
aspects of the coalition with lan and dexterity. Dr Manmohan Singh,
as the prime minister of India is doing a laudable job heading the
government. Steps initiated by Honbl Dr Singh to make the
government responsive, accountable and transparent are slowly and
surely bearing fruit. It needs to be borne in mind that changes in the
government take years and decades to fructify.

Jealous and sniggering detractors, often ridicule and mock at the
present arrangement within the Congress and the UPA. They say
uncharitable things about both Dr Manmohan Singh and Smt Sonia
Gandhi. Many unpleasant rumours regarding the Congress and their
leaders are doing the rounds within the country. But rumours are not
meant to be believed. You cannot believe what a disgruntled person
says. It could be out of spite or hatred. The public must use its own
discrimination and discerning attitude in assessing what is the truth
and what is a blatant lie. Allegations and accusations against the
Congress party run rife. But to wield power and to wield it with
responsibility is a remarkable quality of the party. Opposition parties
when they have been in power have shown their true colours. They
cannot claim a holier than thou attitude. Corruption scams when the
opposition was in power run into several dozens. Harassment of
political adversaries or challengers when the Opposition was in
power are numerous and countless. The opposition has not proved
that it can wield power with responsibility.

Honbl Smt Sonia Gandhis foreign origins and her Italian background
have irked a large section of Indians and certain opposition parties.
But despite her Italian background, Smt Sonia Gandhi has done more
for India-her adopted country, than many so called patriotic Indian
women. Originally she did not at all wanted to be in the muck which
is Indian politics yet under public demand she chose to serve India.
Fact is there is no Indian women who can match her stature. So what
is the opposition complaining about. Honbl Shri Rahul Gandhi has
shown remarkable maturity in steering himself clear of demands
within the party and the country to don the mantle of the prime
minister. It shows he has his feet firmly on the ground. He has
proved to be a brilliant campaigner and orator and his efforts to
democratise the party is worthy of fulsome praise. Shri Rahul Gandhi
seems to be making the right moves and sounds by his visits to
Indias hinterland and understanding the problems of the country.
His efforts to be in touch with Indias poor and downtrodden by
extensively crisscrossing the country comes deep from the heart and
is certainly not a show for public consumption.

Detractors of the Gandhi family and the Opposition very often
complain that Congressmen are fiercely loyal to the Gandhi family.
And why not? Afterall, the Gandhi family is the conscience keepers
and the custodian of the Congress party.
Labels: gandhi family, INC
Why Are Some Polities More Prone To International Conflict Than
Others

Game Theory And Political Economy
James Russell and Quincy Wright suggested in the American Political
Science Review in 1933 that the danger of conflict could be
diminished by looking within states to discern what contributes to
the risk of war. Revolutions in game theory technology and political
economy modeling are helping to advance those goals. The
combination of non-cooperative game theory as an analytic tool and
the assumptions of political economy models about leaders
domestic interests and incentives offer a different explanation of
international relations from that suggested by realist theories and
other state-centric viewpoints. Together with more macro-level
theorizing we gain insights into what makes some polities more
prone to international conflict than others. By adding the micro-
level, game theoretic investigation of domestic factors to the analytic
repertoire we have now supplemented the aspects of received
wisdom that are consistent with the record of history with
explanations for puzzling facts about conflict that no longer seem
anomalous. Students of international relations are concerned with
the description, prediction, and control of the external behavior of
states, particularly of their more violent types of behavior such as
intervention, hostilities, and war. It is clear that mere description of a
diplomatic or military event has little meaning by itself and that such
an event can neither be predicted nor controlled unless account is
taken of the circumstances which preceded it within each of the
states involved.
James T. Russell and QuincyWright, National Attitudes on the Far
Eastern Controversy (1933, 555).

Russell and Wrights (1933) view lay dormant for most students of
international conflict until well after the empirical demonstration by
Babst (1964) that democracies rarely, if ever, fight wars with each
other. That insight, originally articulated by Immanuel Kant in 1795,
slowly percolated through the security studies community,
eventually leading to a proliferation of theories and empirical studies
that look within states to sort out why different types of regimes
behave differently when it comes to decisions about war and peace.
No other aspect of conflict studies since the advent of nuclear
deterrence theory has had as large an impact on American foreign
policy as the theorizing and empirical assessments of the democratic
peace. Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush embraced the
central insight from this literature, with Bush making the promotion
of democracy a theme of his foreign policy. Therefore, understanding
the shift in research strategies that led to the insights of the
democratic peace is important from both a theoretical and a
practical standpoint.

Political economy was turned to as one means to try to overcome
the limitations of realist approaches. It is not, of course, the only
such alternative. Numerous other theoretical perspectives were also
stimulated by the perception that realism faced limits on its ability to
explain remaining puzzles concerning international onflict. Neo-
liberalism, gender studies, constructivism, and computational models
are among the alternative and sometimes complementary
approaches explored as means to solve conundrums regarding war
and peace. Like some of the alternative approaches, political
economy modelsthe focus hereenjoy a history of success in
other aspects of social inquiry. These include elucidating the
democratic peace; clarifying issues in American and comparative
politics, at least since the origins of the Rochester school in the
1960s; and providing micro-foundations for research in economics
and politics about growth, the resource curse, trade, and banking
policy. Political economy models, like some other modeling, also
benefited from improvements in game theory that facilitated the
construction of more sophisticated models than was possible prior to
the late 1970s, as well as from the stimulus provided by the
recognition that domestic factors contributed significantly to the
demise of the USSR and the end of the cold war.

The political economy perspective treats leaders, not states, as the
object of study. In doing so, it argues that relations among nations
are produced by the normal pulls and tugs of domestic affairs, taking
into account the domestic and international constraints under which
leaders in contending states operate. That this is a significant
conceptual departure from state-centric, realist accounts is
exemplified by the inability of such languages as English, French,
Chinese, Urdu, and perhaps all others to describe international
relations without invoking the nation as the key unit of analysis.
Political economy models and empirical assessments evaluate policy
choices as parts of equilibrium behavior induced by domestic
institutions. They conceive of the choice of foreign policy interactions
as incentive-compatible with the motives of national leaders. These
leaders motivations may not beand often are notcompatible
with their nations interest.

Domestic institutional structures (such as the competitiveness of
leadership selection or the extent of government accountability and
transparency) help shape the interplay of leaders, elites, and
ordinary citizens, resulting in policies that create the contours of the
international environmentcontours that in realist approaches are
taken as given rather than as factors to be explained. By drawing
attention to leaders, recent scholarship illuminates empirical
regularities not previously discerned. Gaubatz (1991), Fordham
(1998a, 1998b), and Smith (2004), for instance, show that war-timing
by democratic leaders depends on the election cycle, electoral rules,
and domestic political circumstances. Fearon (1994) and Smith
(1996) suggest that democratic leaders are more constrained than
autocrats to carry out the threats they make because of domestic
political audience costs. Schultz (1998, 2001) shows that the
existence of a domestic political opposition limits democratic foreign
policy adventurism in ways not experienced by non-democrats.
Bueno de Mesquita et al. (1999, 2003) develop a selectorate
theory of politics, showing how variations in the size of a politys
political institutions, that is, its selectorate and its winning coalition,
help explain the empirical regularities that make up the democratic
peace. Bueno de Mesquita and Downs (2006) build on the
selectorate account to explain the willingness of democratic military
interveners to restrict the spread of democracy even when these
interveners declare that they are motivated to promote democratic
reform elsewhere.

Each of these studies shares a conviction that policy decisions are
strategic, taking into account expected responses by foreign and
domestic adversaries and supporters, and so use non-cooperative
game theory as their foundational analytic structure. Many then go
on to use statistical and case study methods to probe the generality
and the verisimilitude of their proposed explanations of international
conflict. These studies also suggest critical empirical tests to help sort
out the explanatory power of alternative perspectives. A game-
theoretic focus on strategic interaction that assumes that states are
rational unitary actors shows that war, being costly, is always ex post
inefficient (Fearon 1995). Political economy, game-theoretic models
agree but add that war, although ex post ineffi-cient in terms of
citizen welfare, can be beneficial for leaders (Chiozza and Goemans
2004). Just consider Margaret Thatchers poor prospects of
reelection as Britains prime minister before the Falklands/Malvinas
War. Her popularity soared following the UKs victory, which may
have been instrumental to her reelection in 1983. We can only
conjecture on what the electoral consequences would have been for
Thatcher had shecost-effectivelybought off Argentinas generals
and the Falklands shepherds rather than fight to defend Britains
territorial claims.

The political economy approachs microfoundations separate the
interests of leaders from those of the broader populace, or the
national interest. This may be its most significant evolutionary step
beyond realisms focus on the state as a unitary entity. As many have
noted, the policies that leaders adopt to enhance their hold on
power often make their subjects worse off. The selectorate consists
of those who have at least a nominal say in choosing leaders and are
eligible to become members of a winning coalition. The winning
coalition is the subset of the selectorate without whose support an
incumbent cannot be sustained in office.

Consider, for instance, the personally beneficial and nationally
debilitating actions of North Koreas Kim Jong-il, Zimbabwes Robert
Mugabe, Iraqs Saddam Hussein, or the Philippine leader Ferdinand
Marcos. Each managed to retain his position of national leadership
for many more yearsoften decades longerthan democratic
counterparts can reasonably aspire to, and yet each contributed to
the impoverishment of his nations ordinary citizens even as he and
his inner circle of cronies ensured their own wealth. In such self-
aggrandizing circumstances it is difficult to square their international
interactions with a state-centric approachs attentiveness to the
national interest. Yet such policies are understandable when one
expands upon earlier macro-level theories by adding within-state
micro-foundations. When domestic institutions constrain a leader to
require a broad base of supportas is true in most democracies
then private rewards are an inefficient way to retain power.
Democratic leaders would have to spread these rewards across so
many people that each would receive too little for the benefits to
influence their loyalty to the incumbent. In such a situation, it is
more efficient for leaders to rely on public goods as their best means
to retain office. When political institutions compel a leader to
depend on many supporters, so that a bundle of public goods is the
reward for retaining the incumbent, the institutions of governance
induce weak loyalty to the incumbent. After all, everyone benefits
from public goods, whether they support the incumbent or not.

Conversely, when a leader needs backing from only a few people to
stay in power, the few are expected to be loyal both because they
are well rewarded with private benefits and because they face a high
risk of losing those privileges if a challenger topples the incumbent
regime. Thus it is that resource allocationsincluding provisions for
national defenseare induced by domestic political institutions
rather than by international compulsions, culture, or the luck of the
draw in leaders.

Extracts from the article Game Theory, Political Economy, and the
Evolving Study of War and Peace published in the American Political
Science Review, November 2006 by BRUCE BUENO DE MESQUITA
associated with the New York University, Hoover Institution and
Stanford University.
Labels: game theory, political economy

Since early childhood, I have always been a dreamer at heart. In
1978, during a train ride from Bombay to Jabalpur enroute to
Mandla, my maternal hometown, I imagined what it would be like
having a 100km by 10km industrial corridor between Pipariya and
Jabalpur on the lines of the famous Ruhr Valley of Germany. Ruhr
valley is famous for its industrial history, originally based on coal
mining and steel production and now benefiting from its industrial
mix of energy production, environmental technologies and modern
service industries. Ecological and economical problems, mainly the
traumatic coal crisis in the 1960s, destroyed confidence and
optimism. Most coal mines in the Ruhr Valley were shut down and
the number of jobs was halved. Unemployment and social unrest
were just some of the more pressing problems.

In the past decades considerable effort has lead to modernization
and diversification of the economic base at the Ruhr. Nowadays, the
'Ruhrpott' is once more a thriving region and an enormous urban
area. Bochum, Dortmund, Duisburg and Essen form an inter-
connecting metropolis. The old industrial ruins have been converted
into cultural venues. Ancient mine 'Zeche Zollverein' and can-like
'Gasometer Oberhausen' are just some of the highlights of the
modern Ruhr Valley area.

One of the things Germany has done right in the Ruhr is to invest
heavily in higher education and research. Until 1965, the Ruhr had no
universities. Now it boasts five universities and seven advanced
schools of applied sciences. In addition, 13 cutting-edge research
institutes have sprung up in the Ruhr since the early 1990s, including
Frauenhofer and Max-Planck, thanks to $110 million a year in federal
and state funding. State and local governments also are channeling
funds into cleaning up the smokestack industry graveyards and
seeding new technology parks with startups in fields such as medical
technology, computer services, biotech, renewable energy, e-
logistics, and environmental technology. Bochum's growing talent
pool drew Finnish mobile phone maker Nokia to locate its only
German factory nearby, creating 2,300 jobs.

Indias new SEZs are precisely aimed at creating this employment
and exports. Some of them are already making news, like Dahej. The
Special Economic Zone (SEZ) at Dahej has earned a pride of place
among the top 25 best global economic zones, as per a global survey
of 700-odd free economic zones of the future' by Foreign Direct
Investment bimonthly magazine published by the Financial Times
Group. The multi-product SEZ at Dahej on a fast trajectory growth for
the last five years is ranked 23rd and is the only one from India.
Situated on the coast of Gulf of Cambay, Dahej SEZ is spread over
1,700 hectares having attracted investment of nearly Rs.20,000-crore
and providing employment to 22,000. When fully functional, Dahej
PCPIR, falling on the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC), is
likely to touch export target of Rs.62,000-crore.

The even greater success story that has been reported is the
doubling and more of exports from the new special economic zones.
Exports from 111 such zones totalled $49 billion in 2009-10, up 123
per cent from the $22 billion earned in the previous year. Total
exports last year, at $176 billion, were about 5 per cent lower than in
the previous year. If you take out the SEZ numbers for the two years,
then non-SEZ exports fell from $163 billion to $127 billion a sharp
drop of 22 per cent. Continuation of tax exemptions for SEZ units
would undermine the effectiveness of the new direct tax laws.
Defenders of the SEZ scheme, on the other hand, point out that the
cost of preventing the exports sector from a virtual collapse in 2009-
10 was a paltry Rs 5,200 crore by way of income-tax revenues, and Rs
3,200 crore of indirect tax revenues, which is what the government
lost on account of the tax concessions given to SEZ units.

In view of this, the Central Board of Excise and Customs (CBEC)
recommended an overhaul of the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) Act
2005 saying it has detected gross violations of duty and tax
concessions causing it to suffer a revenue loss of Rs 1,75,000 crore to
date. Broadly, the CBEC report has sought the removal of numerous
exemptions, drawbacks and concessions that have turned SEZs into
tax-avoidance conduits for importers and exporters without any
genuine business to back them. The CBECs revenue loss estimate Rs
1,75,000 crore has been derived from concessions extended for
capital goods and raw material procured by functioning SEZs
developers and those that have been approved and are being set up
(SEZs in the process of starting operations have to provide import
estimates). The CBEC had estimated an overall revenue loss of Rs
3,50,000 crore involved in the creation of all SEZs since 2006, when
the Act was passed.

The basic motive behind developing a special economic zone like SEZ
in India or SEZ in China, primarily in the developing countries is to
attract mass foreign investments in the country. India Real Estate
Investments have attracted huge foreign funds and thus the special
economic zones in India have increased by and large. The SEZ norms
and rules vary from country to country and region to region. SEZ land
involved also decides the SEZ policy for the SEZ approvals. The SEZ
act 2005 announced the SEZ policy in India for setting up of any
special economic zone in India. This special economic zone act 2005
set the guidelines and procedures for acquisition of SEZ land and SEZ
development following the proper SEZ laws. Further amendments
were made through SEZ Act 2006 and SEZ policy 2007.

The SEZ history dates back to 1965 when the first export processing
zone was set up in Kandla, Maharashtra. That was the instigation of
SEZ's in India. The SEZ Act in 2005 established India Special Economic
Zones formally. SEZ notification as mentioned in the SEZ Act includes:
* To augment additional economic activity by attracting foreign
direct investments
* To promote exports of goods and services
* To promote investment from domestic and foreign sources
* To create more employment opportunities
* To develop infrastructure facilities of global standards

SEZ India Benefits
* SEZ's offer economic progress to the area, the local inhabitants and
the country as a whole
* Exemption from payment of stamp duty and registration fees on
the lease/license of plots to the SEZ developer.
* External commercial borrowings of upto 500 million USD a year
without any restriction of maturity to the SEZ developers.

SEZ Disadvantages
Special economic zones and the SEZ projects have instigated certain
SEZ controversy and a SEZ debate regarding the SEZ Disadvantages:
* Revenue losses due to various tax exemptions and tax benefits
awarded to the India special economic zones.
* Most Real Estate Developers In India are interested in setting up a
SEZ to cash in the india real estate bubble by acquiring SEZ land at
cheap rates and creating a land bank for themselves

Presently around 14 major special economic zones are functional in
India:
* Santa Cruz, Mumbai, Maharashtra
* Cochin, Kerala
* Kandla And Surat in Gujarat
* Chennai, Tamil Nadu
* Vishakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh
* Falta And Salt Lake in West Bengal
* Noida, Greater Noida in Uttar Pradesh
* Indore, Madhya Pradesh
* Jaipur, Rajasthan

Owing to the mass attraction of SEZ's in terms of the SEZ benefits or
advantages, major Indian conglomerates are jumping into the SEZ
development bandwagon. Some of the names that deserve mention
here are Mahindra & Mahindra with Mahindra World City in Chennai
and Reliance Industries along with Haryana Government and coming
up Special Economic Zones by leading real estate builders and
developers in India like Unitech India and DLF. The newer areas
attracting SEZ development are Navi Mumbai, Manesar, Gurgaon,
Noida, Indore, Dehradun, Kanpur, Kochi, Nandigram, Surat, Nagpur,
surrounding areas of Pune, Goa, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Jaipur, and
Karnataka.
Labels: SEZs
Saturday, January 7, 2012

Mitt Romney goes into Iowa Caucus stronger than ever, looking more
presidential. Mitt Romney knows how to find common ground with
others, compromise and get his programmes through. Romney goes
into Iowa leading the polls. The last poll, on the eve of Iowa, shows
Romney with 24% of likely caucus goers. Ron Paul, the libertarian
Texan has 22% and making a surprise showing as the new
Conservative Evangelical wing's choice is former Pennsylvania
senator Rick Santorum with 15%. This is a year all about beating
Obama. Republicans and many independents (who have joined the
Tea Party in droves) are scared of another four years of Obama. Four
years as a lame duck, devil may care, I plan to leave America in my
image as an EU satellite state, with massive social change,
entitlement spending, socialised medicine, whether they want-it-or-
not.
Republicans are slowly realising that and will probably come around
quicker than expected. If Romney wins Iowa, and then backs that up
with a win in New Hampshire --where he is a local boy and stands at
40% in some polls, that will give him a strong out-of-the-gate
showing. Even if he comes in second or third in Iowa, a win in New
Hampshire will still give him a strong start. However, they state, 'we
felt compelled to make an endorsement in light of a counter-
productive effort to stop Mitt Romney among some disparate
elements on the right--often based on a religious intolerance of Mr.
Romney's Mormon faith. We also think the notion that the Tea Party
will support a 3rd party candidate after Mitt Romney becomes the
Republican nominee, a notion most often advanced by the
mainstream media, must be discredited.' They believe that the 'only
way to defeat President Obama, whose policies are an anathema to
conservatism and the Tea Party Movement, is to rally around his
strongest opponent - Mitt Romney.'
The Republican operatives who created Tea Party Express, the
leading political action committee of the tea party movement,
recently launched a separate PAC called the Campaign to Defeat
Barack Obama. By creating the independent group, the organizers
can raise more money and be a stronger force in the upcoming
presidential race. The new group has the ambitious goal of
organizing 1 million people against the president through television
ads, online petitions and grass-roots events. More than 46,000
people have signed the groups online petition to defeat Barack
Obama since January. We want to be the aggressive, independent
group that goes after him and stands up to the Obama campaign,
said Ryan Gill, the PACs vice president.
Romney views India as potentially profitable for U.S. marketing and
investment, due to its flourishing economy and huge population.
Romney said in 2005 that although outsourcing to countries like
India is a problem, we'll see new opportunities created selling
products there. We'll have a net increase in economic activity, just as
we did with free trade.
Mitt Romney is a member of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day
Saints, members of which are commonly known as Mormons or LDS
(Latter-day Saint). In addition to missionary work in France in the
1960s under the tutelage of Wesley L. Pipes, Romney has served as a
bishop, and has also been a stake president in his church. In
accordance with LDS doctrine, as bishops and stake presidents are
lay positions in his church, Romney received no compensation or
money for his years of service in those positions. Also in accordance
to his religious beliefs, Romney abstains from alcohol and smoking.
Romney has expressed his faith in Jesus Christ as his "Lord and
Savior" openly to evangelical Christian groups. He has received
support from evangelical Christians.
Mitt Romney's delivered his "Faith in America" speech on December
6, 2007. Romney's campaign billed the speech as extolling American
freedom of worship while helping to satisfy public curiosity about
how Romney's strain of religious devotion would inform presidential
governance. Romney's speech gave primacy to the American
Constitutional right of religious liberty, which produces cultural
diversity and vibrancy of dialog. He called for public
acknowledgments of God such as within Holidays religious displays.
Romney said, "Freedom requires religion just as religion requires
freedom." He cited a religious nature to historic abolitionists'
campaigns, the campaign for American Civil Rights, and the
contemporary campaign for the Right to Life. Romney advocated
maintenance of a separation of Church and State, stating that he, as
president, would decline directives from churches' hierarchies,
including that of the LDS church.
Romney said while there are those who would prefer he indicated he
holds his LDS faith merely as a tradition, actually he believes in his
faith and tries to live according to its teachings, and while
sacraments and confession of Romney's "church's beliefs about
Christ may not all be the same as those of other faiths," he still holds
Christ "the Son of God and Savior of mankind." Romney declined to
address further the specifics of his Mormonism, implying that any
compulsion to do so would counter the Constitutional prohibition of
a religion test for political office.
The similarities between Hinduism and Mormonism are less
apparent, being on the level of abstract theology and worldview, but
are all the more remarkable. For example, the Hindu idea of karma
and reincarnation is similar to Mormonism, with its doctrine of pre-
existence and eternal progression. In both cases you have lived a
previous life, and your station in this life depends on how good you
were in the previous life. Thus, Mormons could traditionally look
upon dark skin as a sign of pre-life sinfulness. Also in both cases, this
life is not the end-all, and does not result in a permanent judgment.
Mormons teach that you will have continual future chances to get
close to God, just as Hindus believe that you will have many future
lives to pursue your oneness with Brahman.
Mormonism and Hinduism also share a materialistic view of the
spiritual realm. In Mormonism, it is based on the idea of a material
God, a God who has a physical body. If God is a material being, the
question then arises, who created the material, how did the material
get here if God himself is material? The implication is that the
material already existed. This is just like Hinduism, which says plainly
that the universe is eternal and uncreated. Mormonism also teaches
that in your future lives, you yourself can become a god. This is again
similar to Hinduism, which also says that in your future lives, you can
become a god.
Like Hinduism, Mormonism is a make-it-up-as-you-go religion, which
can change to fit whatever new circumstances it finds itself in.
Hinduism can do this because it lacks any foundational, authoritative
teacher or theology, and brazenly absorbs any religious challenge it
faces (such as proclaiming the Buddha to be an incarnation of
Vishnu, or that Jesus learned his miracles from the gurus of India).

Indias nuclear triad to counter first-strike attack
India will take a big step towards achieving a credible nuclear
weapon triad in February when its first indigenous nuclear
submarine INS Arihant begins sea trials off Visakhapatnam. The "sea-
acceptance trials'' (SATS) of INS Arihant are slated to begin "towards
end-February'' after the completion of its ongoing harbour-
acceptance trials (HATS). With INS Arihant's induction, India for the
first time will brandish the most effective third leg of the nuclear
triad - the ability to fire nukes from land, air and sea. The first two
legs revolve around the Agni family of ballistic missiles and fighters
like Sukhoi-30MKIs and Mirage-2000s jury-rigged to deliver nuclear
warheads. Only the Big-5 has nuclear triads till now, with a total of
over 140 nuclear-powered submarines. America leads the pack with
71, followed by Russia with about 40, while China, the UK and France
have around 10-12 each.
A nuclear triad refers to a nuclear arsenal which consists of three
components, traditionally strategic bombers, ICBMs and SLBMs. The
purpose of having a three-branched nuclear capability is to
significantly reduce the possibility that an enemy could destroy all of
a nation's nuclear forces in a first-strike attack; this, in turn, ensures
a credible threat of a second strike, and thus increases a nation's
nuclear deterrence. While traditional nuclear strategy holds that a
nuclear triad provides the best level of deterrence from attack, in
reality, most nuclear powers do not have the military budget to
sustain a full triad. Only the United States and Russia have
maintained nuclear triads for most of the nuclear age. Both the US
and the Soviet Union composed their triads along the same lines,
including the following components: Bomber aircraft capable of
delivering nuclear bombs (carrier-based or land-based; armed with
bombs or missiles); Land-based missiles (MRBMs or ICBMs) and
Ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). The triad also gives the
commander the possibility to use different types of weapons for the
appropriate strike.
ICBMs allow for a long-range strike launched from a controlled or
friendly environment. If launched from a fixed position, such as a
missile silo, they are vulnerable to a first strike, though their
interception once aloft is substantially difficult, Some ICBMs are
either rail or road mobile. SLBMs, launched from submarines, allow
for a greater chance of survival from a first strike, giving the
commander a second-strike capability. Some long-range submarine-
launched cruise missiles are counted towards triad status, this was
the first type of submarine-launched strategic second-strike nuclear
weapon before ballistic missile submarines became available.
Strategic bombers have greater flexibility in their deployment and
weaponry. They can serve as both a first- and second-strike weapon.
Labels: mitt romney, nuclear triad
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The Deprived Basically Need an Opportunity

Reservations/Conscription: Undoubtedly the socially and
economically deprived must get opportunities. But is 50 per cent
reservation in top institutes the answer? What the deprived basically
need is a opportunity. Scholarships, easy student loans in 2nd-3rd
rung institutes with 10 per cent reservations for the meritorious in
top institutes would serve the purpose. There is no point subjecting a
incapable mind to the academic rigours of top class institutes where
the student may end up in isolation or feel incompetent. A 20%
reservation could be allowed for the economically weaker sections of
the society in the second and third tier graded professional
institutions. Similarly reservations, voluntary or enforced, in the
private sector would be like a ticking time bomb and can throw into
disarray personnel and productivity milestones. Perhaps the private
sector can be urged to provide 20% reservations for the meritorious
among the weaker sections for apprenticeships/training. The best
among them can then be absorbed. Students gaining government
subsidized education (bachelors/masters/doctoral) must be asked to
serve in the country for at least 5-7 years. The logic is that they are
improving their skills at the tax payers money and must therefore
give the tax payer something back. Those who want high paying jobs
abroad must pay market fixed fee. Individuals often end up wasting
5-10-15 years of their lives in unsuitable jobs or when they are
unsure of themselves. Conscription (12 months in NCC and 8 months
in NSS) is absolutely essential for a country like India after the high
school. This would inculcate in the youth a sense of discipline and
service and the 18-month time would be well spent standing them in
good stead in future.

Insurgencies: Vast swathes of the Indian landmass (approximately 40
per cent) is in the grip of heavily armed internal conflicts in the
north-east, central and northern areas. This is a startling trend which
must be addressed with the utmost urgency. There are two ways to
tackle this: hard and soft force. Formidable security deterrent for
violence perpetrators must be established where the clear message
should be that there is a very heavy price to be paid for indulging in
violence. Moles and informers must be set up in the public and the
militant ranks must be infilterated to get advance intelligence on
their designs. Militants must be denied access to funds and weapons.
Next the grievances, resentment and complaints of local militants
against the administration or lack of subsistence demands must be
addressed and met. It is preferable to get the aggrieved parties and
their local leaders to cooperate with the administration in addressing
their problems and getting them to participate in the electoral
process if they want a share of power. Appeal to their self interest
and how they would gain if they join the mainstram political process.

Bridging income gaps: A stark reality in India is the sharp gap
between the haves and the have nots. While 5% could be
categorized as the super rich, 10% as well off, 10% as upper middle
class and 25% as the middle class. Nearly 40-50% are in pretty bad
shape. Ignoring this 50% will be done at grave peril to the stability of
the society which is reflected in insurgencies in 40% of the Indian
landmass. Universal secondary/higher secondary education, self
employment opportunities, entrepreneurship and small businesses is
the answer. The nature of businesses can be determined by the local
need and the geographical context. Tax rates could be fixed in 5-10
slabs depending on the income profiles with minimum tax payable of
even Rs 50/- to Rs 100/- per annum. Even a rickshaw wallah can
afford this and he would be proud to be included in the family of tax
payers. About 70 per cent of the nations workforce is in the
unorganised sector. Setting up guidelines, rules and laws for this
sector so that both the small businessman and worker benefits
would raise income levels. The real India is not the gleaming
corporate towers of Gurgaon or Bangalore or the Vasant Vihar look
alike colonies of 8-10 metros. The real India is the 70% of the
population which lives in lakhs of villages and thousands of moffusil
towns and hamlets.

Communication: The need for regular, consistent and clarity in
communication cannot be more emphasized. What a government in
power expects from its employees must be communicated regularly
and clearly without any ambiguities. The government must make
sure lacunae and bad practices are effectively dealt urgently but all
good work must be communicated to the public and key
constituencies promptly and without hesitation. If you dont blow
your own trumpet no one else will do it for you. Example: For
instance the PM should communicate with top coalition leaders,
union ministers/secretaries, chief ministers/chief secretaries,
ambassadors, key public/private constituencies on at least a monthly
basis to communicate regularly the governments policy stance, vision
and expectations.
Since India has chosen to be a constitutional democracy it entails a
change in mindset from pre-1947 to post-1947. Growth is always
painful and change is always fearful and the learning curve for
individuals, communities and societies varies from a few years to
several decades and even centuries. To rule, to establish an empire is
perhaps feudalistic and colonial. To serve, to take interest in, to give,
to help, to safeguard and protect the public interest is in the best
traditions of advanced democracies. It is very easy for public and the
press to criticize and flay those holding positions of service. From a
safe distance and without the constraints of changing dynamics
those who criticize do not realize the constraints and pressures
which public figures are subjected. To deliver and perform under a
million watchful eyes and pressures is the way to realize the
enormous demands on a person which public office demands. Ability
and experience are therefore safe yardsticks to determine where a
individual fits best.

Political Campaigns: Campaigns can be categorised into local, state
or national. When a campaign is national in nature it must appeal to
the whole country and people where relevant national issues are
discussed in a language which the nation understands. State
campaigns must have a regional flavour while threading it to the
nation in a language that particular regional group understands. A
local campaign must take up local issues at the district level in a
dialect which the local people understand. Campaigns must have
issues which the people can connect to and must be liberally
interspersed with anecdotes and humour in a language/dialect which
the target audience can connect with. The campaign pitch must
appeal to the self interest of the voter and the welfare of the
local/state/national area. For a political campaign to be really
effective it must be well planned and organized in advance and must
be given sufficient publicity in the relevant media channels.

Political leaders: It will not be out of context to state that political
leaders at the district, state and national levels are the true face of
the society. If they want to create a good perception and image of
themselves then they must must think, speak and act good. Others
perceive a person for what he/she is in reality. Nothing more or
nothing less. Political leadership at the district, state and national
levels must be role models for the citizens. Earning the respect and
trust of the population is paramount. If citizens dont trust and
respect their political leaders there will be a chasm, a void in
communication which can breed distrust, antipathy and antagonism.
Political leaders must be guided by the use of intellect, judgement,
reason, objectivity, discrimination, self control. Political leaders must
have control over their senses and must avoid any speech, behaviour
or action dictated by hatred, ego and vengeance. Political leaders
must be well aware of key information about their constituency, the
issues at stake, they must network and interact with key
stakeholders, must know the ground realities, must be educated and
well read, must be good problem solvers and must be experts in
identifying disturbing trends and bringing it to the notice of the state
and national party units.

Maintaining cohesiveness of the Indian state: A strong Centre is
very important but at the same time it should not be overbearing,
exploitative or victimizing in nature. Every state must get its due and
rightful share due to its own local resources and assets. If a state is
earning Rs 100/- you cant take away Rs 80/- of its hard earned
money and tell it that you and your family have a ball in Rs 20/-. It
will only make it resentful and spiteful. On the other hand of you tell
a state that the state can keep Rs 60/- (or 60% of its resources) for its
own people it will be more receptive to donate Rs 40/- for the Centre
and other states. Ways must be found to keep a state attached to
the Indian union for very strong and compelling reasons. Basically it
should be made impossible for a particular state to survive on its
own. States must be interdependent on each other and on the
Centre for survival. The motto: play as a team, stay united and
prosper or be a solo player and pay a very heavy price. The Centre
must provide all legitimate support wherever a state needs it but
subsidizing heavily 2-3 states on the hard earned money and
resources of the other states will make the good ones resentfull. It is
a better idea to get the poor performing states to shape up by
providing them necessary managerial expertise.
Labels: campaigns, integrity, leaders, reservations
The Greatest War is that of Self Conquest

The logic of war: Why do kings, presidents, prime ministers and
politicians wage war? Is it for conquest, self aggrandizement,
territorial expansion or economic domination. Do the great generals
realize that the greatest war is that of self conquest? Who initiates
aggression. Perhaps, it could be those people who have not
considered that violence can also be contemplated upon them, who
have not suffered psychologically and physically and who have not
experienced death.In the current unipolar world, perhaps the only
country in the world to play referee between squabbling nations and
troublemakers is USA given its unquestioned intellectual, military
and financial might. But some nations across the world and several
sections within USA itself are questioning this role whether it is
worth playing the referee with good intentions if it leads to feelings
of resentment and thanklessness from the aggrieved parties
especially when American interests or world peace is not affected?
Violence is the first resort of those who are savage and the last
resort of those who have reason. Is Osama bin laden stretching
American patience to the limit and forcing a reaction? Persuasion,
diplomacy, debate, negotiation, warnings are the preferred tools for
sorting out problems. Yet for India, leveraging its relationship with
USA has to be done skillfully considering we stand to gain immensely
if we play our cards well keeping in mind our interests and Americas
point of view. While all efforts should be made at self reliance we
should accept knowledge, technology and other assistance from
developed nations without guilt where essential and necessary and
offer assistance without cringing to the less fortunate where it serves
our interest.

Closer home is Pakistan sponsored intrusion in J&K and elsewhere in
India with repeated alacrity justified and should India tolerate it?
Certainly not. If verbal concerns and warnings dont suffice then the
best thing to do is a brick for a brick or a stone for a brick lest it be
misinterpreted for weakness and paralysis in which case the other
side will only get bolder and bolder. In this context the policy
adopted by the Scandinavian countries is laudable. They are well
governed, have an enlightened population, co-exist and cooperate
within themselves, dont unnecessarily antagonize their neighbours
and meddle in others affairs and focus in the pursuit of happiness
and prosperity.

Yet we must maintain a strong and deadly army and ensure
modernization and weapons acquisition based on perceived future
threat. India must never shy of giving a tough fight if our interests
are threatened and where the cause is just. India must always
negotiate from a position of strength keeping the legitimate interests
of the other party in mind and must never yield to a enemy which
wants to talk pointing a gun to its head.

Indian naval fleet planning: How should India do it? That depends on
what its goal is. If India wants to limit itself to the customary 200 kms
of water from the shoreline then the existing fleet with minor
variations is enough. But if we want to dominate the Bay of Bengal,
Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean, then the equation changes. Then
naval fleet planning will depend on the returns. Should we not have
one aircraft carrier each for the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, Indian
Ocean and international waters.

Should economic milestones dictate the purchase of these carriers
considering the cost of each carrier is in the vicinity of Rs 6,500
crore? With the second aircraft carrier under firm order and the third
at the planning stage should the fourth be purchased when our GDP
touches $1.5 trillion from the present $690 billion. What should be
the number of destroyers, battleships, frigates, cruisers and
submarines? As the fifth largest navy with a 180-odd battleships how
should the navy plan and direct the movement of its armada and
flotilla to best serve and protect the countrys interests. How many
submarines should our naval fleet have? What should be the break-
up of attack, patrol, SLBM and nuclear powered submarines?

Why is the navys role so important in the near future. Because with
increasing international maritime trade and Indias rising commerce
in the next 20-30 years maintaining Indias optimal naval equilibrium
is essential given the expected large growth in the merchant navy
strength, sea trade, offshore installations, fishing and ocean mining
and protecting the sea lanes.

Will the Chinese dragon breathe fire? With increased competition
from China will China pose a threat to Indias security say 15-20 years
from now. Will it pose a land or an air threat. With reports of China
heavily basing missiles in Tibet it doesnt portend good news. In that
scenario should India not develop IRBMs and ICBMs. Should it not
raise additional mountain divisions and beef up the ITBP and the
BSF? If China is instigating insurgency in the north-east and has a role
in naxal and maoist movements in India then why is the Indian govt
turning a blind eye to China.

How should we negotiate border disputes with China. If China agrees
to Indian claims over the upper parts of north-east, aksai chin then
we should stay quiet. If they dont then we should raise the question
of autonomy for Tibet and its independence. Why are we pursuing
policies not in our national interest. What are Chinas vulnerable
areas apart from Xinziang? If China is perceived as a threat, then we
should encircle it. Develop strategic friendships with USA, Russia,
Japan, key 2-3 countries of south-east asia.

DEFENCE: Maintaining the security and territorial integrity of the
Union is perhaps the foremost task of a elected government. The
strength of security forces (army, navy, airforce, marines,
paramilitary, police and intelligence) should be determined on the
basis of existing and perceived future threat perceptions, the
population (maintaining a optimum ratio), the geographical
landmass, the international land borders and coastlines and the
immediate area of the countrys defined strategic interest. This could
be 2000-3000 kms from the international borders or the coastal
areas. Weapon, armament acquisition should be on the basis of long
term effectiveness, cost, technology, and effectiveness in the war
theatre. Manpower hiring and training should be strategic in quality
and content. Development in war theatrics must be followed in
different global conflict areas and security apparatus must be so
aligned to respond quickly to changing war dynamics and needs. R&D
and armament factories must be forced to show results and come up
with inventions and designs suited for the Indian defence
environment. Indias defence set-up should be such as to deter any
external aggression and to launch offensive/attack operations
against enemy targets fomenting trouble wherever the need arises
or is justified.We should not need the enemys permission to attack
it if it is continuously jeopardizing our national security. Swift, lethal
and surgical strikes against enemy lines must be sanctioned
wherever necessary. Intelligence coordination must be ensured
between all service divisions. Strategic defence policy forums must
be operational to assess long term strategy, direction and gameplan.
Defence policy must also be aligned with the countrys economic and
political agenda.

Security: To ensure all wings of defence (army, navy, air force,
marines, coast guard, intelligence) have the necessary wherewithals,
training, combat experience so as to maintain a heightened state of
alertness and preparedness to deal with sudden unforeseen external
threats or aggression and to launch counter strike or attack
operations. To ensure all wings of internal security (paramilitary,
territorial army, police, internal intelligence) are able to deal, check,
minimise internal strife and rebellions, maintain law and order so as
to make the common person feels safe and secure.

EXTERNAL AFFAIRS: The countrys war is fought globally by its
diplomatic corp who are in fact the silent soldiers. Diplomacy must
be dictated and based on the following parameters: interaction with
the host country, intelligence gathering, economic and trade,
servicing Indian community abroad, media management, public
relations and lobbying, cultural and educational exchanges.

Indian missions abroad must be the dynamic face of a changing India,
advocating and creating consensus in the host country for the
nations needs and interests, building favourable perceptions and
countering negative publicity, pushing the countrys agenda and
vision among the key stakeholders, networking with key
constituencies in the host country, gathering information and
feedback on the country, identifying new trends and developments
in technology, finance, management and science.

To use diplomacy as a means to ensure peace and stability, to
maintain beneficial relations with geopolitically important countries,
to maintain optimum relations with countries which fulfill our
specific needs in terms of technology, trade, energy, to bring in best
practices from every country, to diffuse conflict and tensions.

To serve and protect the national interest, to shape developments in
the regional arena and build an environment which serves the Indian
interest, to leverage our strengths with nations so as to serve the
national interest, to ensure stability and prosperity around the
country and within the country.
Labels: defense, external relations, navy, war
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