Predictive Maintenance (with R)

Abstract Predictive Maintenance (with R)

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Over the course of the next 15 to 20 years the global economy will continue to progress further,
heading towards a promising future full of opportunities especially within the sector of
manufacturing and industrial production. However, industrial production in the 21st century will also
continue to encounter numerous and diverse challenges as for instance the increasing
international competition, shorter product life cycles and faster technological leaps forward just to
mention a few. Also, there will be an additional structural shift of machinery demand as well as of
production from developed countries to emerging countries such as China.
Companies operating in the industrial production branch have to anticipate the future
developments and start to prepare by putting things on the right track. In order to survive in an
environment like this, resource-efficient and secure planning of production processes are of main
importance to guarantee a consistent and high quality output.
To be able to realize the full potential of industrial production, and to meet the changing
requirements of the business environment, the German government developed a high-tech
strategy across different fields of action including communication and technological innovations. In
the course of this strategy the Industry 4.0 project was created. While the term Industry 4.0
refers to the fourth Industrial Revolution, the main objective of the project is the promotion of the
computerization of traditional industries. After the mechanization of production processes in the
19
th
century, the introduction of mass production and the start of the digital revolution in the 20
th

century, the goal of the fourth Industrial Revolution is the realization of the Smart Factory
characterized by high adaptability, resource efficiency and the integration of business processes.
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Figure 1: Four Phases of Predictive Maintenance
In industrial production, unforeseeable machine failures as well as performance drops or
deterioration in quality because of defective system components can lead to severe shortness of
supplies which will eventually weaken the market position of the entire organization. In order to
avoid this, organizations are increasingly focusing on the improvement, maintenance, repair and
operations of their machinery.
Types of Maintenance Strategies
Generally, one can distinguish between three broad types of maintenance:
Reactive or Breakdown Maintenance refers to a run it till it breaks viewpoint in which
equipment is only repaired after it already failed. The approach to restore normal conditions
after a problem was detected can be cost-effective unless a fatal production outrage
occurs.
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Preventive or Periodic Maintenance. This type consists of regular inspections of the
equipment and machinery with the objective to prevent sudden failures and problems.
Through regular maintenance cycles the risk of total failure is reduced substantially
compared to breakdown maintenance.
Condition-based Maintenance is based on the monitoring of the machinery and the
performance. The monitoring is conducted by continuous assessment of device and
performance parameters and a comparison thereof with predetermined values.
Maintenance is only carried out after certain indicator show an increase in failure
probability.
In the previous years, the industry shifted their focus away from only reactive repair mechanisms
towards the predictive coordination of machine maintenance. In the category of the future of
maintenance developments,
Predictive Maintenance as an extension of condition-based maintenance represents the
informatization of production processes. With intelligent IT-based production systems
Predictive Maintenance represents one important step on the path towards the
development of a Smart Factory in industrial production.
This method employs inspections by measuring and analyzing data about deterioration of
the machinery and its performance, and relies on a surveillance system in order to monitor
conditions and to manage trend values. In the context of analyzing data, the implementation
of statistical methods respectively Predictive Analytics and Data Mining are important tools.
Predictive Analytics help organizations to anticipate changes. By analyzing existing patterns
and past events, future events can be predicted and the planning and execution of
maintenance strategies can be adapted accordingly.
Advantages of Predictive Maintenance
When utilized correctly, predictive maintenance holds a lot of promise and provides numerous
advantages. Through the generation and analysis of different machine data, the predictive power
of the state of industrial plants is not only enhanced, but also provides the basis for an improved
planning certainty as well as the efficient planning of repair and maintenance work. Predictive
Maintenance not only allows for preemptive corrective actions, but also increases the operational
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life of the machinery or individual components; decreases equipment downtime; decreases costs
and leads to better product quality.
Open Source R
In order to successfully conduct Predictive Maintenance procedures, one needs a sound basis in
the form of a compelling software solution that can be tailored to the specific requirements and
tasks at hand. A powerful tool is the programming language R, which is one of the best alternatives
for the analysis and visualization of data that provides many advantages for Data Mining and
Predictive Analytics. Consequently statistical methods such as clustering, classification, regression
analysis or event history analysis lay the foundation to successfully apply Predictive Maintenance
strategies in industrial production.

Figure 2: Possible Application of R for Predictive Maintenance

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Advantages of R
Originally developed in 1993, R has since then benefited from its Open Source character which
supported the development of a programming language for statistical data analysis to a cross-
platform operating lingua franca for data analysts. For Predictive Maintenance, R provides
numerous advantages for a flexible and efficient application.
Worth mentioning here are especially:
Features: The features that R offers (without additional investment) are incomparable.
Norman Nie, one of the founders of SPSS says: "R is the most powerful and flexible
statistical programming language in the world"
R in the analytic stack: R can be integrated with all the layers of an analysis or reporting
architecture like data management, data analysis, or the presentation layer. Almost all
software vendors offer interfaces possibilities to integrate R.
Investment protection: The involvement of the scientific community and large
companies support the development and acceptance of R. The R community grows
steadily.
Quality: The basic development of R takes place in the field of science. Two-thirds of the
core developers are professors, engaged in the data analysis at universities or companies.
R offers high reliability and uses the latest statistical methods.
Data Visualization: R is one of the most powerful alternatives for creating high quality
charts. From data processing to analyze and visualization - R implements the entire
workflow.
In addition, R is open source and there are no license costs and it is platform independent and can
be integrated into the existing software architecture.
Way of use
In order to successfully operate and thereby contribute to the competiveness of an organization
Predictive Analytics requires sound monitoring and diagnostic technologies. In industrial production
Predictive Analytics are used to analyze data from for instance ultrasonic detection, thermography,
vibration analysis, oil analysis and others.
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With the programming language R the entire Predictive Maintenance process can be managed
successfully: starting with the process of data collection, the analysis of data to the preparation of a
maintenance prognosis through to a clear visualization of the results. The prediction of machinery
failures in the semiconductor industry is one specific example of how the powerful analysis
software R uses regression trees and the random forest method to put the innovative concept of
Predictive Maintenance into practice in order to significantly improve the process of machine
maintenance.

Figure 3: Regression Tree Depicting the Different Weighting of the Variables
However, this is only one field of application, the combination of R and Predictive Analytics
provides a wide range of applications. Additional examples of application can be found in the
Whitepaper Predictive Maintenance (with R) Potential and Possibilities of the Free Statistics
Language R for New Business Models in the Era of Industry 4.0
For an organization, the power to be able to identify and predict when production machinery,
equipment, and assets are likely to fail or need service is an invaluable advantage, and in the
future likely to become one of the key competitive advantages. The implementation of Predictive
Maintenance procedures in the existing production structures provides the company with the
possibilities to ensure a continuous production process, and to rectify plant damages and
equipment wear at the point with the greatest positive impact regarding time and cost aspects.
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Thereby, an organization cannot only reduce repair and downtime costs, but also substantially
improve the quality of its products which will have a positive impact on the overall market position
of the company. Predictive Maintenance is the maintenance strategy of the future, and the
programming language R with its endless possibilities is a key tool for its successful realization in
the times of smart factories.

About eoda
We at eoda have a passion for data and analysis. We are data scientists, software developers,
management consultants and personal trainers all combined in one. We generate strategic
advantages from your data on the basis of extensive experience in Data Mining and Predictive
Analytics.
Our team will derive acting recommendations and solutions that will help you to adjust to upcoming
trends or future market changes. We do not shrink away from challenges and individual requests.
We are always ready for new tasks that we will manage with our hands-on-mentality, proven
methods and technologies feel free to contact us!

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www.eoda.de





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Table of Figures:
Figure 1: Four Phases of Predictive Maintenance 3
Figure 2: Possible Application of R for Predictive Maintenance 5
Figure 3: Regression Tree Depicting the Different Weighting of the Variables 7

Picture Credits:
Worker and production manager with Clipboard Kzenon / fotolia.com
Industriemechaniker Ehrenberg-bilder / fotolia.com
Portrait of young smiling female engineer checking wind turbines on site xixinxing /fotolia.com
Daumen hoch zum Biogas Jrgen Flchle / fotolia.com