International Journal of Advance Foundation and Research in Computer (IJAFRC)

Volume 1, Issue 8, August!1"# I$$% &"8 ' "8(&

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$urve- .n /redictive Anal-sis .f 0rought In India 1sing
AV2RR'%.AA Remote $ensing 0ata#
Mr. Yogesh Gaikwad, Mrs. Rohini Bhosale.
Department of Computer Engineering, Pillai HC College of Engineering, Rasa!ani, Pan"el.
!gaikwad#mes.a$.in %, &hosalerohini'()#gmail.$om

A 3 $ 4 R A C 4
4his paper encompasses structural model that can 5e used to anal-6e the drought that can occur
from 7l %ino and other climatic disorders# 8ith prime emphasis on the parameters used li9e 4CI,
VCI and %0VI +e can predict the drought +ith respect to $tandard precipitation inde: ($/I)#
Various classifications of $/I can 5e used to predict the severit- of drought# /aper also
encompasses the use of neural net+or9 5ased model to enhance the predictive po+er of the
drought anal-6er# 4his surve- paper esta5lishes a 5ridge over the AV2RR data to anal-6e severit-
and understand the crop re;uired for the land according to the moisture content# (A5stract)
Inde: 4erms< 4CI, VCI, %0VI, $/I, %eural %et+or9, AV2RR#

I# I%4R.01C4I.%

Drought is natural phenomenon whi$h is $aused due to the shortage of rainfall. *t is affe$ting the man!
pla$es of the world and $an $auses natural ha+ard. ,he $om&ination of "aria&les su$h as rainfall,
temperature humidit!, wind, soil moisture $an &e used to measure the intensit! of the drought. ,he
monitoring of drought is diffi$ult due to drought spreads o"er large area, in$reases slowl!. *n *ndia for
the !ear (-'. drought is going to &e an important fa$tor due to the El /ino. El /ino whi$h refers to
"ariations in the temperature of the surfa$e of the tropi$al eastern Pa$ifi$ $ean and in air surfa$e
pressure in the tropi$al western Pa$ifi$. ,he warm o$eani$ phase, El /i0o, a$$ompanies high air surfa$e
pressure in the western Pa$ifi$. Due to this there ma! &e possi&ilit! of 1gri$ulture drought in se"eral
areas of *ndia. ,he pro&a&ilit! of Drought o$$urren$e $an &e minimi+ed &! modeling the drought and
managing the water resour$es.

,here are &asi$all! three t!pe of drought is defined2 meteorologi$al, agri$ultural, and h!drologi$al. ,he
situation at whi$h the normal pre$ipitation de$eases in period of time is $alled as Meteorologi$al drought.
Palmer drought se"erit! inde3 4(5 and the standardi+ed pre$ipitation inde3 67P*8 4)5 are the most
$ommonl! used method to ma9or the intensit! of drought 4'5.7P* is used to des$ri&e the e3tremel! dr! or
wet $limate situation. *t is standardi+ed measure of pre$ipitation in different regions for different time
s$ales. 1 proper transformation is needed to o&tain normall! distri&uted data, sin$e pre$ipitation data do
not ha"e normal distri&ution.7P* is the important metri$s among others for drought predi$tion sin$e it
has "aria&le time s$ale and uses onl! rainfall re$ords.

,o monitor the en"ironmental issues most $ommonl! the satellite:&ased remote sensing data $an
effe$ti"el! &e used. ,he moisture:related "egetation indi$es 4.5 $an &e e3tra$ted &! the use of ad"an$ed
"er! high resolution radiometer 61;HRR8 on the /ational $eani$ and 1tmospheri$ 1dministration
6/118 satellite. ,hese indi$es $an &e used for monitoring "egetation $onditions of plant su$h as
normali+ed differen$e "egetation inde3 6/D;*8, "egetation $ondition inde36;C*8, and temperature
$ondition inde36,C*8. 1mong these indi$es, /D;* ha"e &een most effe$ti"el! used to "egetation and
drought monitoring.
International Journal of Advance Foundation and Research in Computer (IJAFRC)
Volume 1, Issue 8, August!1"# I$$% &"8 ' "8(&

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II# R7=A470 8.R>

Most of the resear$hers studied the relation &etween the 7P* and the "egetation indi$es like /D;*, ,C*,
and ;C*. ,he tool for earl! dete$tion of drought in East 1sia &ased on /11:1;HRR /D;* data is
de"eloped. ,he /D;* time series is $orrelated with the 7P* o&tained for <7 Great Plains and found the
&est $orrelation "alue for ) month 7P*. *n the proposed s!stem the neural network ar$hite$tures will &e
used to appl! to $lassifi$ation task. 1rtifi$ial neural network ha"e &een pre"iousl! applied to drought
predi$tion. ,o predi$t 7P* "alues linear sto$hasti$ models and re$ursi"e multistep neural networks were
applied and resulted good performan$e. ,he neural network model de"eloped pre"iousl! was &ased on
7P* and did not use an! satellite &ased data to predi$t the drought se"erit!. ,he past resear$h is made for
small area and with small num&er of stations.

III# 0A4A /R7/ARA4I.%
A# Region of stud-
*ndia is se"enth largest $ountr! &! area and lo$ated in 7outh 1sia. 7outh of *ndia is &ounded &! *ndian
o$ean , 7outh:west &! the 1ra&ian 7ea, and 7outh:west &! the Ba! of Bengal, land &orders is shared with
Pakistan to the west= China, /epal, and Bhutan to the north:east= and Burma and Bangladesh to the east.
,he *ndian $limate is strongl! influen$ed &! the Himala!as and the ,har Desert, to dri"e the summer and
winter monsoons in *ndia &oth pla!s an important role. Cold Central 1sian kata&oli$ winds from &lowing
in pre"ented &! Himala!as, keeping the &ulk of the *ndian su&$ontinent warmer than most lo$ations at
similar latitudes. ,he role of ,har Desert in attra$ting the moisture:laden south:west summer monsoon
winds that, &etween >une and $to&er, pro"ide the ma9orit! of *ndia?s rainfall. @our ma9or $limati$
groupings predominate in *ndia2 tropi$al wet, tropi$al dr!, su&tropi$al humid, and mountain 4'-5.
3# ?etrological 0ata @(A <
@or this stud! the Metrologi$al data is used. Data $an &e monthl! rainfall and temperature. Data
relia&ilit! needs to &e $he$ked &efore appl!ing it to the model e3tra$tion of 7P* indi$es. ,hose station
whi$h does not pro"ide suffi$ient metrologi$al data are remo"ed. ;alues $ould &e re$onstru$ted for some
of the stations.
,here are "arious methods whi$h are used to "erif! the $onsisten$! of the rainfall data. 7u$h methods are
dou&le mass $ur"e anal!sis, ;on /eumann ratio test, and likelihood ratio test. ,hose stations showing
in$onsisten$! are remo"ed from further anal!sis. 7ome stations ha"ing some missing data are needs to
&e re$onstru$ted. Ainear regression method is used to re$onstru$t missing data. ;erifi$ation methods
must &e applied to the data &efore an! other pro$essing steps.
7P* is one of the widel! used metri$s for drought modeling and fore$asting. 7P* not onl! $apture
information a&out the amount of rainfall &ut also pro"ide a measure representing rainfall $ondition
against a long term mean. *t des$ri&es how the pre$ipitation is more than normal in a period of time. *t is
in"ariant it $an &e $al$ulated at an! desired time. ,o des$ri&e the pre$ipitation time series the pro&a&ilit!
densit! fun$tion should &e determined. Gamma distri&ution is desired for pre$ipitation data to makes
normali+ed distri&ution. ,he $umulati"e pro&a&ilit! of the pre$ipitation is $al$ulated and a normal
Gaussian fun$tion with mean +ero is applied to it. ,his generates the mean 7P* for desired lo$ation and
time to &e +ero. ,a&le * shows the $orresponden$e with 7P* "alues and Drought se"erit! $onditions.
International Journal of Advance Foundation and Research in Computer (IJAFRC)
Volume 1, Issue 8, August!1"# I$$% &"8 ' "8(&

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,o $lassif! the stations into different $limate +one the De Mortan $oeffi$ient 6inde38
* B PC,D'-
Ehere , is annual mean temperature in FC and P is annual mean pre$ipitation in mm. Relation &etween
De Morton inde3 and $limate +one is shown in ta&le. ,he a&o"e $lassifi$ation is used to model the
drought.
C# AV2RR'%.AA 0ata @BA
,he drought monitoring $arried out using indi$es deri"ed from remote sensing data. ,he sensors are
installed in earth o&ser"ation satellites. Due to less water the $apa$it! to $arr! out $hloroph!ll an
fun$tion on the part of "egetation is redu$ed. *n drought $ondition the "egetation is redu$ed due to la$k
of water for photos!nthesis pro$ess. ,his o$$urren$e gi"en or des$ri&ed or demonstrated &! spe$tral
response. Be$ause of this $hara$teri+ation, indi$es are introdu$ed for drought modeling su$h as /D;*,
/D;*:DE;, ;C*, ,C*.
1# %ormali6ed 0ifference Vegetation Inde:
/D;* is most widel! used inde3. *t is used to $al$ulate amount of "egetation $o"er in the land. *t is
$al$ulated as
/B46&/*R:&red8C6&/*RD&red85

Ehere / is the /D;* and &/*R and &red are the red &ands respe$ti"el!.
# %0VI'07V
,he intensit! of drought ma! &e $al$ulated &e de"iation of /D;* from its long term mean. ,he differen$e
&etween the /D;* for the $urrent time and a long term mean /D;* for that month is named as de"iation
of /D;*.
/de"B/i:/i,mean
Ehere /iB/D;* "alue for month i and /i,mean is long term mean for month i o"er the period. Positi"e
"alues of /de" indi$ate the a&o"e:/ormal ;egetation $ondition and similarl! /egati"e "alues of /de"
indi$ates the &elow:/ormal "egetation $ondition and suggest drought situation. /D;*:DE; inde3 has
some limitations. ,he de"iation from the mean does not take into a$$ount the standard de"iation. Hen$e
it $an &e misinterpreted if the "aria&ilit! in "egetation $onditions in a region is "er! high.
&# Vegetation Condition Inde:
;egetation $ondition inde36;C*8 is to $al$ulate how $lose the /D;* of $urrent month to the minimum
/D;* of long term re$ord. *t is defined as,

International Journal of Advance Foundation and Research in Computer (IJAFRC)
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;9B 46/9:/min8C6/ma3:/min85%'--
Ehere ;9 is "egetation $ondition inde3 for month 9 and /ma3 and /min are the ma3imum and minimum
"alue of ;C* from long term re$ord for that month. ;C* is measured in perfe$t and it is appro3imate
measure of how dr! the $urrent month 9 is.
"# 4emperature condition Inde:
,C* in$ludes the de"iation of the $urrent "alue from the ma3imum /D;* of long term re$ords.
,9B 46,Bma3:,B98 C 6,Bma3:,Bmin85%'--
Ehere ,9 is ,C* "alue of month 9 and ,B, ,Bma3, ,Bmin are a&solute ma3imum and minimum smoothed
monthl! &rightness temperature. Moisture shortage is a$$ompanied &! high temperature whi$h $auses
thermal effe$t. ,C* gi"es an opportunit! to identif! su&tle $hanges in "egetation health due to thermal
effe$t.
,o $al$ulate /D;*, /D;*:DE;, ;C* and ,C*, 1;HRR data with spatial resolution of '.'km G '.'km $an &e
used High temporal resolution low data "olume and low $ost $ompared to other high resolution satellite
images are the ad"antages of /11:1;HRR data. ,he rough resolution $an &e the limitations of /11:
1;HRR images. ,he data in high:resolution pi$ture transmission 6hrpt8 format 4H5. @or radiometri$ and
geometri$ $orre$tion on the images $an &e $arried out &! appl!ing standard pro$edures. ,he num&er of
$loud dete$tion methods $an &e applied to remo"e $loud effe$t. ,hreshold tests are often used for $loud
masking. ,hreshold test are &ased on the prin$iple that is if the measured &rightness temperature in one
of 1;HRRIs infrared window $hannels is smaller than a predefined threshold or if the measured
refle$tan$e in one of 1;HRRIs "isi&le $hannel is higher than a predefined threshold then the pi3el is
regarded as $loud $ontaminated.
6&.gt (JK8 and 66&'D&(8 lt H-8
6&'D&(8 lt L-
6&.gt (MK8
Ehere &', &(, and &. are the $orresponding 1;HRR &ands and gt and lt are Ngreater thanO and Nless thanO
respe$ti"el!. 7e$ond e3pression is Refle$tan$e test. B! the use of Refle$tan$e test, pi3el is masked as
$loud! one if refle$tan$e of a pi3el in "isi&le &ands is lower than the threshold "alue. ,he third e3pression
is Brightness temperature test. Pi3el is masked as $loud! one if the &rightness temperature 6&and.8 of a
pi3el is higher than the threshold "alue. @irst e3pression is Refle$tan$e and &rightness test. Be$ause of
insuffi$ient $ontrast with the surfa$e radian$e, some $loud! t!pes are diffi$ult to dete$t su$h as thin
$irrus, low status at night and small $umulus and su$h $louds $an &e dete$ted &! first e3pression.
Eith the /D;* data related to ea$h site, the GP7 $oordinates of the meteorologi$al stations need to $o:
register. @or ea$h site two t!pes of time series is $onstru$ted, one for 7P* and one for satellite data.
IV# ?.07=I%CDF.R7CA$4I%C 3A$70 .% %71RA= %748.R>$
1im of proposed s!stem is to use the satellite images to model and predi$t the intensit! of drought in
*ndia. ,he num&er of features is $onsidered like /D;*, /D;*:DE;, ,C*, and ;C*. ,he input to the model is
satellite images and the drought intensit! &ased on 7P* as its output.
A# %eural %et+or9 models
1rtifi$ial /eural networks ha"e &een applied on man! appli$ations su$h as modeling $lassifi$ation,
smoothing, filtering, predi$tion, fun$tion appro3imation, and optimi+ation. ,he indi"idual neuron works
simultaneousl! to model the $omple3 task. ,he num&er of neural network ar$hite$ture $an &e used to
predi$t the drought $ondition. Predi$tion $an &e made &ased of features e3tra$ted from satellite images.
International Journal of Advance Foundation and Research in Computer (IJAFRC)
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,he network su$h as MAPIs and RB@Is are uni"ersal appro3imations. ,he! are used to appro3imate an!
fun$tion with a desired fun$tion. ,he /eural networks are $orre$t $hoi$e for the predi$tion if the! are
trained properl!. *n pre"ious resear$h, the linear model su$h as regression and adapti"e linear model
were used to $al$ulate the 7P* "alue from the "egetation indi$es. Aeast mean sPuare or Delta rules the
methods $an &e used to determine the free parameters for these models. ,he draw&a$k of the linear
model is that the! are in$apa&le of $apturing interrelations in highl! nonlinear s!stem.
,he MAP networks $onsist of two la!ers one is input and another is output la!er. ,he following figure
shows the general ar$hite$ture of MAP network. ,he! ma! $onsist of $omputational elements in$luded in
a num&er of hidden la!er. Ea$h neuron in hidden la!er and output la!er has a nonlinear fun$tion relating
its output too its input. Aet us $onsider neuron 9 in the output la!er. ,he output $al$ulated as
Y9B Q6Rwk9!k8
Ehere !k is the output of kth neuron. Sth neuron is in the hidden la!er 9ust &efore the output la!er and
wk9 is the weight asso$iated to the link &etween neuron. Q is the a$ti"ation fun$tion of the neurons. 1fter
the in"ention of the &a$k:propagation 6BP8 learning algorithm, the outputs of the neurons in the hidden
la!ers $an also &e $omputed &ased on the outputs of their pre$eding la!ers. BP is simple learning
algorithm &ased on the steepest des$ent optimi+ation method. ,his method $onsists of two steps. @irst
step is that the output of the neurons in different la!ers is $omputed and in se$ond step the error signal is
o&tained.
BP algorithm is the &est tool for optimi+ation task in MAP. MAPIs with onl! one hidden la!er do not
produ$e the a$$epted results. 1s we in$reases the num&er of hidden la!er will in$rease the a$$ura$! and
gi"es good performan$e. <suall! two hidden la!ers are enough to get a$$epted performan$e. ,he error
signal for neuron 9 in the output la!er is o&tained as
e9 B d9:!9
Ehere d9 is the desired output for that neuron. Y9 is output of 9th neuron. ,hese error signals are then
&a$k propagated to the hidden la!ers. ,hen weights are updated using the following ePuation
Ek96new8 B Ek96old8 D T!kU9
Ehere Ek9 is the weight of the link from neuron k to neuron 9, T is learning rate, !k is the output of
neuron k and U9 is the lo$al gradient of neuron 9. where U9 of neuron in output la!er is $omputed as
U9B :e9QV6"98
and in the hidden la!er is $omputed as

UkB QV6"k8 Rwk9U9
where "k is the input to neuron k, whi$h is o&tained &! summing all the input neuron k re$ei"es from
those of the pre"ious la!er.
RB@Is network is similar to MAPIs network. RB@Is /etwork $onsists of three la!er, an input la!er, hidden
la!er, and an output la!er. ,he neurons in the output la!er and the hidden la!er are different as the! are
same in MAPs. ,he output neurons are linear and hidden neurons are nonlinear. utput of neuron 9 in
the output la!er is $omputed as
!9B Rwk9e3p6WW3:$kWW8

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Ehere wk9 is the weight of link &etween neuron k in the hidden la!er to neuron 9 in the output la!er. 3 is
the input "e$tor to the network. $k is the $enter of the &asis fun$tion of neuron k in the hidden la!er.
V# /R70IC4I.% ?.07=
,he standard autoregressi"e mo"ing a"erage model 61RM18 4M5 needs to &e $onsidered to $onstru$t the
model. ,he output of the model is 7P* and features like /D;*, /D;*:DE;, ;C*, and ,C* are the input. Aet
us $onsider that the ,C* is the input to the model. ,he general relation &etween 7P* and ,C* is
7 6t D p8 B f 6, 6t8, , 6t:'8, ,6t:(8,X..,6t:P88
Ehere 7 indi$ates the 7P* "alues and t denotes the $urrent time. ,he "alues of 7P* are predi$ted p 7teps
ahead. P *ndi$ates how man! past samples of input is used in the model. @ 6.8 is the fun$tion that is indeed
determined &! MAP and RB@.
1s the P in$reases, the a$$ura$! of the model also in$reases with the pri$e of in$rease in $omputation
time. @or the $urrent month, to predi$t the 7P* "alues, past '( months ,C* "alues are fed into the model
as input. /e3t is to o&tain the "alues of /D;*, ,C*, ;C* and /D;*:DE; for the pi3el where the station is
lo$ated. ,he window of )3) pi3el si+e is $onsidered with the station in the $entral pi3els. B! making the
a"erage of nine "alues, the "alues for $entral pi3el are o&tained. ,here ma! &e possi&ilit! that the station
is lo$ated at without enough "egetation, and surrounding lands ha"e a "egetation $o"er. 1"eraging makes
it possi&le to ha"e smooth "egetation inde3 4L54'-5.
1s mentioned in pre"ious se$tion *ndia had different $limate +ones. ,he relation &etween the 7P* and
"egetation inde3 depends upon the spe$ifi$ $limate +ones where the station is pla$ed. 1$$ording to the
$limate +ones, separate model is needed for ea$h +one leads to . models. ,o train the models the data
from different stations $an &e used. ,he mean a&solute error and a$$ura$! are the metri$s whi$h $an &e
used to a$hie"e effe$ti"eness of models. 1s shown in ta&le * $lassifi$ation is the task in whi$h
$lassifi$ation of drought is done with respe$ti"e of 7P* "alues. 1$$ura$! of the $lassifi$ation task is
1$$ura$!B /o$C /o
Ehere /o are the total num&er of stations and /o$ are num&er of stations those $orre$tl! predi$ted the
drought $onditions. 1$$ura$! indi$ates num&er of stations for whi$h the model is su$$essful for
predi$tion of drought.
,he pro$ess of data a$Puisition for proposed s!stem is shown in figure '. Blo$k diagram $omprise of
"arious steps to $al$ulate 7P*. ,he steps are as follows2
$tep 1< Captured satellite image is pro$essed &! using the Matla& software.
$tep < ,he rePuired features su$h as /D;*, ,C*, ;C* e3tra$ted from the satellite image and gi"en as input
to the model.
$tep &< Model is used to anal!+e the gi"en data to get the 7P*.
$tep "< Model is trained with e3isting 7P* data to get &etter a$$ura$!.
International Journal of Advance Foundation and Research in Computer (IJAFRC)
Volume 1, Issue 8, August!1"# I$$% &"8 ' "8(&

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Figure 1# 0ata ac;uisition 5loc9 diagram
VI# C.%C=1$I.%
@inall! we $on$lude that the man! resear$hers ha"e worked to predi$t the se"erit! of drought $ondition.
,he proposed s!stem will de$ide whi$h $rop is needed to &e taken in a parti$ular drought $ondition
strateg!.
VII# AC>%.8=70C?7%4
* personall! thank Prof. Hemant Pali"ela from Department of *nformation ,e$hnolog!, Mukesh Patel
7$hool of ,e$hnolog! Management and Engineering, /M*M7 <ni"ersit! for helping me understand the
related topi$s of the field.

VIII# R7F7R7%C7$

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