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Farmers' Almanac predicts
'bitter, frigid conditions' for US
winter
Publicationthatcorrectlypredictedthepolar
vortexwhilefederalforecastersgotitwrongsay
getreadyformoresnowandcold
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theguardian.com, Sunday 24 August 2014 12.07 EDT
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ThefolksattheFarmersAlmanaccanbeforgivenfor
feelingsmug:the198yearoldpublicationcorrectly
predictedthepastnastywinterwhilefederal
forecastersblewit.
Memoriesofthepolarvortexandrelentless
snowstormswontsoonbeforgotten.Andtheeditorsof
thepublicationarepredictingmoreofthesameforthe
comingseason.
Shiveryandshovelryareback.Werecallingforsome
frigidconditions,bitterconditions,saidmanaging
editorSandiDuncan.
Thelatestedition,whichofficiallygoesonsalethis
week,forecastscolderthannormalandwetterthan
usualweatherforthreequartersofthecountryeastof
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theRockyMountains.DroughtstrickenCalifornia,
alongwiththePacificNorthwest,willseenormal
precipitationandcooltemperaturesthiswinter,the
almanacsaid.
Thepublication,nottobeconfusedwiththeNew
HampshirebasedOldFarmersAlmanac,usesasecret
formulabasedonsunspots,planetarypositionsand
lunarcyclesforitslongrangeweatherforecasts.
Modernsciencedoesntputmuchstockintheformula.
Butevenmodernmeteorologistscanstumbleonlong
termforecasts.ThenationalClimatePredictionCenter
forecastastronglikelihoodofabovenormal
temperaturesfromlastNovemberthroughJanuary.
Notoneofourbetterforecasts,MikeHalpert,the
ClimatePredictionCentersactingdirector,saidatthe
time.Theresstillnogoodexplanationastowhythe
polarvortexmovedsodeepintotheUS,hesaid.
OftheFarmersAlmanac,hesaid,Goodforthemif
theygotitrightlastyear,andIllleaveitatthat.
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The 2015 edition of the Farmers Almanac is seen in Lewiston, Maine.
Photograph: Robert F Bukaty/AP
Thealmanacseditor,PeterGeiger,canalsogloatover
hisSuperBowlforecast.Thealmanacforecasta
snowstormFebruary13inNewJersey.Itwas49Fat
thestartoftheSuperBowlonFebruary2,buta
snowstormcreatedhavocthefollowingmorning.
Thealmanacwasntspotoneverywhere:thepacific
northwestwaswetterthanexpected,andCaliforniaand
thesouthwestweredrierthanprojected.
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Thealmanacalsocontainsgardeningtips,trivia,jokes
andnaturalremedies,likecatnipasapainrelieveror
elderberrysyrupasanimmunebooster,inthisyears
edition.
Butitstheweatherprognosticationsthattendtograb
headlines.
Theeditorsencouragereaderstobepreparedand
tomakethebestofit.Whenitsnowsyouhavetwo
choices:Shovelormakesnowangels,Duncan
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53 comments. Showing 50 conversations, threads collapsed , sorted oldest first
All comments Staff replies Guardian picks
2 PEOPLE, 2 COMMENTS
aadman
Last winter didn't seem that unusual to me, it seemed more like the winters I
remember from childhood. It's the mild winters of the last 10 years or so that seemed
abnormal. Either way, bring it on - I'll take frigid cold and snow over 40F
temperatures, rain and mud all winter any day.
24 August 2014 5:24pm
15
LHChappel aadman
Totally agree. I loved making snowmen, snow angels, snowball fights, and
those dark nights that really weren't as dark as they might have been
because of the reflection of moonlight off the blanket of beautiful, white
snow! The cold rain and mud we've had during many recent winters - more
like in the South - are truly miserable.
25 August 2014 5:04am
2
johnnygoodyear
Maine last summer:
I see a tattoo
on the shoulder blade of a man
who must have been a seaman at some time.
Navy of the working kind.
The letters on his skin are faded blue,
diffused. He is eating lobster
pulled by others from local waters.
Mostly makes a living now by delivering
chopped firewood, a currency hereabouts.
24 August 2014 7:12pm
10
chopped firewood, a currency hereabouts.
The back of him bears the rhyme:
When the weathers good
Stack wood
When the weathers bad
Be glad
No punctuation beyond the needles.
2 PEOPLE, 2 COMMENTS
mankinholes
What a complete load of bollocks. Let's just ignore the thousands of forecasts they
got completely wrong and, on a winning streak of, errr, 1, let's put all of our cash on
them getting to, errrr, 2 in a row.
For fuck sake is this the best the Guardian can do? Get out the divining rods and
ouija boards.
24 August 2014 8:28pm
9
Witness1 mankinholes
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25 August 2014 3:15pm
9 PEOPLE, 10 COMMENTS
stephannoir
if i was america i would be more worried at the fast approaching economic winter.
17 trillion dollars national debt.what about 50 trillion dollars in unfunded liabilities
at a very modest 4% america collapses economically .the wonky petro dollar a
stock market crash away.a drought of unimaginable proportions in western
america from mexico to to almost canadaa federal reserve with all the gold gone
missing in actiondisappearednot there.to china including the gold of so called
allies like germany.what... almost 50 million on food stamps..many of them pissed
off black americans...a fast disappearing middle classa unemployment rate of
what 24% if you include those who are no longer looking for a joba food inflation
rate of 12% plus.and a 1% super rich pumping their wealth out of america at a
24 August 2014 9:13pm
7
Show 7 more replies Last reply: 25 August 2014 3:05pm
rate of 12% plus.and a 1% super rich pumping their wealth out of america at a
dizzying rate as taxes increasea useless catastrophic clueless president.and a
foreign policy that is a tragic expensive joke iraq iran syria afghanstan libya
palestine india ecuador russia china all fantastic examples of the stunning success of
american foreign policy
and a very pissed off putin.who has the capability to do serious mischieflike buy
physical silver to collapse the paper silver american banks like short the dollar
when it is vulnerablea fall from 81 to the disaster level of 68 is not that difficult to
do....like persuade many pissed off countries to dump the petro dollarlets see
china india iran libya brazil south africa assortment of south american countries
ecuador argentina venezuelawhat if putin manages to mortally wound americas
friends in the eu by giving the rapidly collapsing economies of greece italy and
bulgariaa nasty shove...
.hah... a cold winter is the least of american worriessoon the economic winter is
unavoidable thanks to compound interest..the local police are armed to the teeth
with weapons of conventional war.for a very good reason.the american people...
Jeremiah Donaldson stephannoir
I am worried about all that, but wrong conversation for it.
24 August 2014 10:28pm
15
MidOff stephannoir
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24 August 2014 11:17pm
ThePaSkeptic stephannoir
Oh give it a rest. We are talking about a potentially harsh winter, not some
25 August 2014 12:18am
9
BrooklynNonHipster
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24 August 2014 9:31pm
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2 PEOPLE, 2 COMMENTS
Jeremiah Donaldson
Matches what I seen in my area. The leaves started falling in July again like last
year, so yeah, it'll be a bad winter. You don't need formulas, you just need to pay
attention to what's going on around you.
24 August 2014 10:28pm
14
LHChappel Jeremiah Donaldson
We've been raking maple leaves here in Western PA since mid-july, too.
Brrrrr . . . bring it on, Mother Nature!
25 August 2014 4:57am
2
pfox33
The oldest joke in the book between mates when we used to report for duty in severe
temps..."..no fucking black flies.."
That's Canada..six months of winter..then six months of poor sledding.
25 August 2014 12:01am
8
4 PEOPLE, 6 COMMENTS
ThePaSkeptic
It has been a cooler than normal summer here in Penns Woods. Broadwing hawks
are migrating a little earlier than normal. Could be a bad winter or maybe not. Don't
care since I will be in Florida for the winter joining what seems to be a large part of
the population of Quebec and Ontario.
25 August 2014 12:16am
5
CautiousOptimist ThePaSkeptic
25 August 2014 12:49am
12
Show 3 more replies Last reply: 25 August 2014 4:22pm
Please, from time to time, check the state of the turn indicator on your car.
:)
ThePaSkeptic CautiousOptimist
Turn indicator? What is that?
25 August 2014 1:01am
6
damute CautiousOptimist
LOL Referring to Quebec drivers?
25 August 2014 1:13am
4
3 PEOPLE, 3 COMMENTS
RedPanda
I'd like someone at the Farmers Almanac to try to explain what effect "planetary
positions and lunar cycles" have on our weather.
If you read the Almanac, stick to the gardening tips. Their weather forecasts are
shite. You may as well roll dice.
25 August 2014 12:52am
3
Richard Thorton RedPanda
Ignore him, he didn't read the article before commenting.
25 August 2014 10:10am
2
Witness1 RedPanda
You might try gardening. You might try reading the Almanac for several
years. You might try planting by the cycles of the moon like humans have
been doing for thousands of years. The weather forecasts are uncannily
accurate. If you had been following the Almanacs for nearly two decades as
25 August 2014 3:13pm
2
accurate. If you had been following the Almanacs for nearly two decades as
we have done as avid vegetable gardeners you would be in awe of their
accuracy on all counts.
damute
It was deep freeze last year from December to April in Toronto. Then like a light
switch it was gone. I can deal with 4 months. For the rest of Canada and the mid-
west old man lingered until mid-may in many places. Sorry guys. Anyway it comes
Canadians don't get surprised.
25 August 2014 1:18am
5
3 PEOPLE, 3 COMMENTS
alloleo
The publication...uses a secret formula based on sunspots, planetary
positions and lunar cycles for its long-range weather forecasts.
I thought it was based on how Old Man Thompson's rhumatiz' was actin' up.
25 August 2014 2:58am
7
RUTHLESSSNIPER alloleo
Don't knock it. My mother had a bad case of arthritis in her hands, and she
could accurately predict rain a couple of days in advance.
25 August 2014 12:30pm
1
Witness1 alloleo
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25 August 2014 3:10pm
2 PEOPLE, 2 COMMENTS
boscovee
25 August 2014 3:01am
Have to guess a lot about the weather and what it will bring tomorrow, but for the
price of a book I will guess more and hope you buy it.
Witness1 boscovee
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25 August 2014 3:09pm
2 PEOPLE, 2 COMMENTS
NewWorldWatcher
To the American Hater's Comments. Sometimes it is better to keep your mouth shut
and be thought of as a idiot than to open it and erase all doubt.
25 August 2014 3:15am
7
Witness1 NewWorldWatcher
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25 August 2014 3:09pm
ID7861768
Bring on the snow !!!!!
25 August 2014 3:27am
3
2 PEOPLE, 2 COMMENTS
OnthePlains
I thought I was back on the Daily Mail site for a minute, quoting the Farmers Almanac
as a "serious" weather prediction. Next it'll be Piers Corbyn and his crystal balls.
25 August 2014 3:39am
3
Witness1 OnthePlains
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25 August 2014 3:08pm
AyackoYamashita
if mr bo-jangles would resign it would cheer everything and everybody up a lot, I am
sure
25 August 2014 7:19am
adirondackbill
When lived in the USA, I always found traditionally cold and snowy winters a good
time for indoor and outdoor activities. Indoors, a period to catch up on reading,
certain hobby projects and activities, etc. Outdoors, snow-shoeing, etc. I admit the
outdoor activities were of shorter duration, though.
25 August 2014 8:46am
2
3 PEOPLE, 5 COMMENTS
Matt Perry
Hmmm, here in Georgia it's hot enough to melt your eyeballs. No sign of encroaching
Autumn. Would certainly welcome a break in the humidity. As a native New
Englander, I pine for the crisp days of Autumn - not this choking, subtropical heat.
25 August 2014 11:32am
1
consciouslyinformed Matt Perry
Me too. I was born and raised in New England, with the winter being my
favorite time of the year. We are now two years in Florida, ocean side. I hate
the climate here; I do not get the appeal of this place, and the weather is
one of the worse climates, I'm which I have lived ( I call it being in the third
circle of hell ).
25 August 2014 1:29pm
1
Show 2 more replies Last reply: 25 August 2014 4:29pm
circle of hell ).
There is nothing like the beauty and the climate of New England. We are
finally leaving this hell. We are on our way to the Windy City, as my
husband's employment position requires us to move there by Nov. We were
initially going back to New Hampshire, but his expertise will benefit the
company more in mid west. At least the climate and culture will be much
improved.
However, it appears there is truth in "you can never go home again." We
have never been able to go back to best area of the US - New England,
since we left when married forty-one years ago. Lived all over the US, but
cannot get back to nirvana.
Matt Perry consciouslyinformed
the hardest part of being a New Englander is knowing that you're better than
the rest of America. It's a hard truth.
Living through the heat and humidity of a Deep South summer is like having
some morbidly obese person trap your face in in armpit.
25 August 2014 2:32pm
1
consciouslyinformed Matt Perry
Thanks for that great image, as it so aptly describes how it feels. No wonder
25 August 2014 3:09pm
3 PEOPLE, 4 COMMENTS
decisivemoment
For the eastern two-thirds of the US, I'd have to say I'd agree with this forecast. The
Pacific Ocean is so warm right now, right up into the Gulf of Alaska, that it pretty
much prevents the kind of zonal jet stream from west-to-east straight across the
country that gives us mild winters east of the Rocky Mountains and high plains. It will
buckle way north again in order to curve around that very warm water as it marks the
boundary between the warm and the cold, giving Alaska another year without winter,
and when it buckles north it has to come back down again, providing the stable
supply of cold enough air to freeze the Great Lakes again. Whether there's enough
cold left in the high Arctic to provide us with as much cold air as last winter is another
question. But it will be cold.
25 August 2014 12:46pm
3
question. But it will be cold.
ataylorusa decisivemoment
@Decisiv....Jet stream from Pacific affecting High Plains weather in the
winter - since when? hahaha, what blather - I guess it's set to the tune of
"over the river..", except it's "over the mountains and 'cross the
plains"...jeez! And I don't believe the Arctic "stores" cold weather during the
summer to provide anyone with cold air during the winter. I can see why you
believe in this Almanac fantasy world.
25 August 2014 1:06pm
Witness1 ataylorusa
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25 August 2014 3:05pm
decisivemoment ataylorusa
You are kidding me, right? Pretty much anything to our west affects our
weather. Occasionally things to our east, but not all that often. I take it you're
from the US, so please, the next time your local TV meteorologist goes on
about "zonal flow" in the jet stream -- if, that is, we get any during the next
few months -- that's one example of the Pacific Ocean affecting our weather.
If you recall 1997-98, 98-99 and 99-00, that's pretty much all the jet stream
did in the Midwest, it went west to east, straight across the Pacific, straight
over the mountains, straight at the Upper Midwest, rarely buckling or curving
to pick up Arctic air, and we had very, very mild and dry winters those three
years. The Pacific Ocean most of that period was hot equatorially, cold
north. Right now, it's warm all the way up, as it has been the last year at
least. That's not a condition that helps "zonal flow", because the jet will try to
follow the boundary between warm and cold. If the ocean is warm all the
way to Alaska, that boundary is southern Alaska, then down the Rockies,
and southeast towards the eastern US. And what do you suppose it brings
with it under those circumstances? Think last winter.
That's the Pacific affecting our weather. All the time.
For once, the Farmer's Almanac is doing something logical . . . . looking at
ocean temperatures and making an educated guess as to what they'll do to
anyone who is downwind within about 3,000 miles of that ocean. Makes a
26 August 2014 2:18am
;
Comments for this discussion are now closed.
anyone who is downwind within about 3,000 miles of that ocean. Makes a
nice change from a dowsing rod, at least.
2 PEOPLE, 2 COMMENTS
meltyman
So has anyone calculated the proportion of times the Almanac got it wrong over the
last 198 years? Even a broken (analog) clock is right twice a day.
25 August 2014 1:18pm
Witness1 meltyman
If you were a gardener, especially a food gardener you'd know the answer.
25 August 2014 3:05pm
Rochelle60
Last winter was brutal here in the Mid-Atlantic US, really cold with constant snowfall.
The preceding milder winters were pleasant yet disturbing and unnatural, plus they
seem to make for a hotter summer.
This summer's been unusually kind, temperatures below 90 and relatively low
humidity. You can actually go outside. Usually you're relegated to the air-conditioned
house, car, and office. The wet heat is so pleasant. I think I go outside more in winter
than in summer. So if a nasty winter means a civilized summer, bring on the cold!.
25 August 2014 1:23pm
2
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