The Central Statistics Office (cso) has released the provisional estimates of national income for the financial year 2012-13. The quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product (gdp) for the fourth quarter (January-March) of 2012-13, both at constant (2004-05) and current prices. The estimates have been revised incorporating latest estimates of agricultural production, index of industrial production and performance of key sectors.
The Central Statistics Office (cso) has released the provisional estimates of national income for the financial year 2012-13. The quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product (gdp) for the fourth quarter (January-March) of 2012-13, both at constant (2004-05) and current prices. The estimates have been revised incorporating latest estimates of agricultural production, index of industrial production and performance of key sectors.
The Central Statistics Office (cso) has released the provisional estimates of national income for the financial year 2012-13. The quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product (gdp) for the fourth quarter (January-March) of 2012-13, both at constant (2004-05) and current prices. The estimates have been revised incorporating latest estimates of agricultural production, index of industrial production and performance of key sectors.
Dated the 10 Jyaistha, 1935 Saka 31 st May, 2013 PRESS NOTE
PROVISIONAL ESTIMATES OF ANNUAL NATIONAL INCOME, 2012-13
AND
QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, 2012-13
The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, has released the provisional estimates of national income for the financial year 2012-13 and the quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (January-March) of 2012-13, both at constant (2004-05) and current prices.
2. The CSO has also released the corresponding annual and quarterly estimates of Expenditure components of the GDP in current and constant (2004-05) prices, namely the private final consumption expenditure, government final consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital formation, change in stocks, valuables, and net exports.
I PROVISIONAL ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL INCOME, 2012-13
3. The advance estimates of national income for the year 2012-13 were released on 7 th February, 2013. These estimates have now been revised incorporating latest estimates of agricultural production, index of industrial production and performance of key sectors like, railways, transport other than railways, communication, banking and insurance and government expenditure.
4. The salient features of these estimates are detailed below:
(a) Estimates at constant (2004-05) prices Gross Domestic Product 5. GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in the year 2012-13 is now estimated at Rs. 55,05, 437 crore (as against Rs. 55,03,476 crore estimated earlier on 7 th February, 2013), showing a growth rate of 5.0 percent over the First Revised Estimates of GDP for the year 2011-12 of Rs. 52, 43,582 crore, released on 31 th January 2013.
6. In the agriculture sector, the third advance estimates of crop production released by the Ministry of Agriculture showed a slight upward revision as compared to their second advance estimates in the production of rice (104.22 million Tonnes from 101.80 million Tonnes), wheat (93.62 million Tonnes from 92.30 million Tonnes) and sugarcane (336.15 million Tonnes from 334.5 million Tonnes) for the year 2012-13. Due to this revision in the production, agriculture, forestry and fishing sector in 2012- 13 has shown a growth rate of 1.9 percent, as against the growth rate of 1.8 percent in the Advance Estimates. 2
7. In the case of mining and quarrying, the Index of Industrial Production of Mining (IIP-Mining) registered a decline of 2.5 percent during 2012-13, as against the decline of 1.5 percent during April- November, 2012, which was used in the Advance Estimates. Production of coal and crude oil registered growth rates of 3.3 percent and (-) 0.6 percent in 2012-13 whereas during April to December, 2012, the growth rates were 5.7 percent and (-) 0.4 percent. The growth of mining &quarrying is now estimated at (-) 0.6 percent, as against the Advance Estimate growth of 0.4 percent.
8. Similarly, the IIP of manufacturing registered a growth rate of 1.2 percent during 2012-13, as against the projected growth rate of 1.9 percent for April-March, 2012-13 for the Advance Estimates. Due to this, the growth of manufacturing sector is now estimated at 1.0 percent, as against the Advance Estimate growth of 1.9 percent.
9. The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth of 5.6 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively in 2012-13 as against 6.1 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively during April-December 2012. Consequently, the growth of the sector is revised downward to 4.3 percent as against 5.9 percent in the Advance Estimates.
10. The key indicators of banking, namely, aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown higher growth of 14.3 percent and 14.2 percent, respectively during 2012-13 over the corresponding period in 2011-12, as compared to growth of 11.1 percent and 15.2 percent as on December 2012. Indicators of Railways sector, namely, Net Tonne Kilometers and passenger Kilometers have have shown growth of 0.3 and 2.4 percent respectively during 2012-13 .The Trade, hotels and transport sector have registered a growth of 6.4 percent in 2012-13 as against 5.2 percent in the advance estimate released in February,2013 as the private corporate sector registered significant growth in the Trade, hotels and restaurent sector in 2012-13.
11. The sector 'community, social and personal services' has shown a growth of 6.6 percent in the revised estimates, as against the growth rate of 6.8 percent in the advance estimates.
Gross National Income
12. The Gross National Income (GNI) at factor cost at 2004-05 prices is now estimated at Rs. 54,49,104 crore (as compared to Rs. 54,47,169 crore estimated on 7 th February 2013), during 2012-13, as against the previous years First Revised Estimate of Rs. 51,96,848 crore. In terms of growth rates, the gross national income is estimated to have risen by 4.9 percent during 2012-13, in comparison to the growth rate of 6.4 percent in 2011-12.
Per Capita Net National Income
13. The per capita net national income in real terms (at 2004-05 prices) during 2012-13 is estimated to have attained a level of Rs. 39,168 (as against Rs. 39,143 estimated on 7 th February, 2013), as 3
compared to the First Revised Estimates for the year 2011-12 of Rs. 38,037. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 3.0 percent during 2012-13 as against 4.7 percent during 2011-12.
(b) Estimates at current prices
Gross Domestic Product 14. GDP at factor cost at current prices in the year 2012-13 is estimated at Rs. 94,61,013 crore, showing a growth rate of 13.3 percent over the First Revised Estimates of GDP for the year 2011-12 of Rs. 83,53 ,495 crore, released on 31 th January 2013.
Gross National Income
15. The GNI at factor cost at current prices is now estimated at Rs 93,61,113 crore during 2012-13, as compared to Rs. 82,76 ,665 crore during 2011-12, showing a rise of 13.1 percent.
Per Capita Net National Income
16. The per capita income at current prices during 2012-13 is estimated to have attained a level of Rs. 68,757 as compared to the First Revised Estimates for the year 2011-12 of Rs. 61,564 showing a rise of 11.7 percent.
II ANNUAL ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP, 2012-13
17. Along with the Provisional Estimates of GDP by economic activity, the CSO is also releasing the estimates of expenditures of the GDP at current and constant (2004-05) prices. These estimates have been compiled using the data on indicators available from the same sources as those used for compiling GDP estimates by economic activity, detailed data available on merchandise trade in respect of imports and exports, balance of payments, and monthly accounts of central government. As various components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices, the discussion in the following paragraphs is in terms of market prices only.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure
18. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 56,94,362crore in 2012-13 as against Rs. 50,56,219 crore in 2011-12. At constant (2004-05) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs. 34,66,723crore in 2012-13 as against Rs. 33,34,900 crore in 2011-12. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2012-13 are estimated at 56.8 percent and 59.6 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 56.3 percent and 59.2 percent, respectively in 2011-12.
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Government Final Consumption Expenditure
19. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 11,86,761crore in 2012-13 as against Rs. 10,42,677crore in 2011-12. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs. 6,59,236 crore in 2012-13 as against Rs. 6,34,559 crore in 2011-12. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2012-13 are estimated at 11.8 percent and 11.3 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 11.6 percent and 11.3 percent, respectively in 2011-12.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
20. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 29,64,677crore in 2012-13 as against Rs. 27,49,072 crore in 2011-12. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs. 19,29,988crore in 2012-13 as against Rs. 18,97,309 crore in 2011-12. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2012-13 are estimated at 29.6 percent and 33.2 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 30.6 percent and 33.7 percent, respectively in 2011-12. The rates of Change in Stocks and Valuables at current prices during 2012-13 are estimated at 3.5 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively.
21. The discrepancies at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2012-13 are estimated at 3.4 percent and 0.0 percent, respectively of the GDP at market prices, as against the corresponding rate of 3.0 percent and 0.0 percent respectively in 2011-12.
22. Estimates of gross/net national income and per capita income, along with GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for the years 2010-11, 2011-12 and 2012-13 at constant (2004-05) and current prices are given in Statements 1 to 6.
III QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR Q4 (JANUARY-MARCH), 2012-13
(a) Estimates at constant (2004-05) prices 23. The four quarters of a financial year are denoted by Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4. GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in Q4 of 2012-13 is estimated at Rs. 14,70,782crore, as against Rs. 14,03,727 crore in Q4 of 2011-12, showing a growth rate of 4.8 percent. 24. Growth rates in various sectors are as follows: agriculture, forestry and fishing (1.4 percent), mining and quarrying (-3.1 percent), manufacturing (2.6 percent), electricity, gas and water supply (2.8 percent) construction (4.4 percent), 'trade, hotels, transport and communication' (6.2 percent), 'financing, insurance, real estate and business services' (9.1 percent), and 'community, social and personal services' (4.0 percent).
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25. According to the latest estimates available on the IIP, the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity registered growth rates of (-) 4.2 percent, 2.6 percent and 2.3 percent respectively, in Q4 of 2012-13, as compared to the growth rates of (-) 0.4 percent, 0.3 percent and 4.5 percent respectively in these sectors in Q4, 2011-12.
26. The key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown decline in growth rates of 1.2 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively in Q4 of 2012-13, as against the growth rates of 7.0 percent and 7.9 percent, in the corresponding period of previous year. In the transport and communication sectors, the sale of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation and passengers handled by the civil aviation registered growth rates of (-) 2 percent, (-) 3.1 percent, (-) 4.27 percent and (-) 1.82 percent, respectively in 2012-13. The Trade, hotels and transport sector have registered a growth of 6.2 percent in 2012-13 as against 5.1 percent in Q4 of 2011-12 as the private corporate sector registered significant growth in the Trade, hotels and restaurent sector in 2012-13.
27. The PFCE and GFCF at constant (2004-05) market prices in Q4 of 2012-13 are estimated at Rs. 8,66,854 crore and Rs. 5,17,039 crore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF as percentage of GDP at market prices in Q4 of 2012-13 were 54.7 percent and 32.6 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 54.3 percent and 32.5 percent, respectively in Q4 of 2011-12.
(b) Estimates at current prices
28. GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q4 of 2012-13 is estimated at Rs. 25,48,220 crore, as against Rs. 22,64,227 crore in Q4 of 2011-12, showing a growth of 12.5 percent.
29. The PFCE and GFCF at current market prices in Q4 of 2012-13 are estimated at Rs. 14,93,793 crore and Rs.8,13,868 crore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF at current prices as percentage of GDP at market prices in Q4 of 2012-13 are estimated at 54.3 percent and 29.6 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 53.5 percent and 29.7 percent, respectively in Q4 of 2011-12.
30. Estimates of GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for the four quarters of 2010-11, 2011-12 and 2012-13 at constant (2004-05) and current prices, are given in Statements 7 to 10.
31. The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter April-June, 2013 (Q1 of 2013-14) will be on 30.08.2013.
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STATEMENT 1: Provisional Estimates of National Income and Expenditures on GDP, 2012-13
(At 2004-05 prices) Item 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 (2 nd RE) (1 st RE) (PE) A. ESTIMATES AT AGGREGATE LEVEL 1. NATIONAL PRODUCT (Rs. Crore) 1.1 Gross National Income (GNI) at factor cost 4,882,249 5,196,848 5449104 (6.4) (4.9) 1.2 Net National Income (NNI) at factor cost 4,310,195 4,572,075 4766754 (6.1) (4.3) 2. DOMESTIC PRODUCT (Rs. Crore)
2.1 Gross domestic product (GDP) at factor cost 4,937,006 5,243,582 5505437 (6.2) (5.0) 2.2 Gross domestic product (GDP) at market prices 5,296,108 5,631,379 5813664 (6.3) (3.2) 2.3 Net domestic product (NDP) at factor cost 4,364,952 4,618,809 4823087 (5.8) (4.4) B. ESTIMATES AT PER CAPITA LEVEL
Population (million) 1,186 1,202 1,217 Per capita NNI at factor cost (Rs.) 36,342 38,037 39,168 (4.7) (3.0) Per capita GDP at factor cost (Rs.) 41,627 43,624 45,238 Note: The figures in parenthesis show the percentage change over previous year 2 nd RE: Second Revised Estimate; 1 st RE: First Revised Estimate; PE: Provisional Estimate
STATEMENT 2: Provisional Estimates of National Income for the year 2012-13 (At current prices)
(15.1) (11.7) 2.3 Net domestic product (NDP) at factor cost 6,504,166 7,476,764 84,67,606
(15.0) (13.3) 2.4 Gross National Disposable Income 7,955,508 9,203,019 1,02,67,820 B. ESTIMATES AT PER CAPITA LEVEL
Population (million) 1,186 1,202 1,217 Per capita NNI at factor cost (Rs.) 54,151 61,564 68,757
Per capita GDP at factor cost (Rs.) (13.7) (11.7) 61,273 69,497 77,740
Note: The figures in parenthesis show the percentage change over previous year 2 nd RE: Second Revised Estimate; 1 st RE: First Revised Estimate; PE: Provisional estimate
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2 nd RE: Second Revised Estimate; 1 st RE: First Revised Estimate; PE: Provisional Estimate
STATEMENT 4: Provisional Estimates of GDP at Factor Cost by Economic Activity (At current prices) Rs. Crore
Industry 2010-11 (2 nd RE) 2011-12 (1 st RE) 2012-13 (PE) Percentage change over previous year 2011-12 2012-13 1. agriculture, forestry & fishing 13,06,942 14,65,753 16,44,834 12.2 12.2 2. mining & quarrying 1,96,092 2,01,076 2,18,910 2.5 8.9 3. manufacturing 10,80,750 12,02,086 12,79,966 11.2 6.5 4. electricity, gas & water supply 1,31,008 1,44,817 1,70,238 10.5 17.6 5. construction 5,95,454 6,85,204 7,67,388 15.1 12.0 6. trade, hotels, transport and communication 17,74,708 21,02,558 24,09,965 18.5 14.6 7. financing, insurance, real estate & business services 11,65,901 13,84,481 16,17,397 18.7 16.8 8. community, social & personal services 10,16,112 11,67,520 13,52,314 14.9 15.8 9. GDP at factor cost 72,66,967 83,53,495 94,61,013 15.0 13.3 2 nd RE: Second Revised Estimate; 1 st RE: First Revised Estimate; PE: Provisional Estimate
STATEMENT 3: Provisional Estimates of GDP at Factor Cost by Economic Activity (At 2004-05 prices) Rs. Crore
Industry 2010-11 (2 nd RE) 2011-12 (1 st RE) 2012-13 (PE) Percentage change over previous year 2011-12 2012-13 1. agriculture, forestry & fishing 713,477 7,39,495 7,53,610 3.6 1.9 2. mining & quarrying 108,938 1,08,249 1,07,619 -0.6 -0.6 3. manufacturing 801,476 8,23,023 8,31,648 2.7 1.0 4. electricity, gas & water supply 92,773 98,814 1,02,918 6.5 4.2 5. construction 390,692 4,12,412 4,30,277 5.6 4.3 6. trade, hotels, transport and communication 1,345,660
14,40,312 15,32,034 7.0 6.4 7. financing, insurance, real estate & business services 849,632
9,48,808 10,30,684 11.7 8.6 8. community, social & personal services 634,358
6,72,469 7,16,645 6.0 6.6 9. GDP at factor cost 4,937,006 52,43,582 55,05,437 6.2 5.0 8
STATEMENT 5: EXPENDITURES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES IN 2012-13 (at 2004-05 prices)
Item (Rs. in crore) RATES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES (%) Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product 2010-11 (2 nd RE) 2011-12 (1 st RE) 2012-13 (PE) 2011-12 2012-13
1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) 30,88,880 33,34,900 34,66,723 59.2 59.6 2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure 5,84,352 6,34,559 6,59,236 11.3 11.3 3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) 18,17,584 18,97,309 19,29,988 33.7 33.2 4. Change in Stocks 1,85,509 1,28,655 2,23,032 2.3 3.8 5. Valuables 1,25,191 1,33,454 1,17,467 2.4 2.0 6. Exports 11,95,764 13,79,225 14,20,094 24.5 24.4 7. Less Imports 15,45,163 18,77,197 20,04,073 33.3 34.5 8. Discrepancies -1,56,009 475 1,197 0.0 0.0 GDP at market prices 52,96,108 56,31,379 58,13,664 100.0 100.0 2 nd RE: Second Revised Estimate; 1 st RE: First Revised Estimate; PE: Provisional Estimate
STATEMENT 6: EXPENDITURES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES IN 2012-13 (at current prices) Item (Rs. in crore) RATES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES (%) Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product 2010-11 (2 nd RE) 2011-12 (1 st RE) 2012-13 (PE) 2011-12 2012-13 1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) 43,49,889 50,56,219 56,94,362 56.3 56.8 2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure 8,91,033 10,42,677 11,86,761 11.6 11.8 3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) 24,74,464 27,49,072 29,64,677 30.6 29.6 4. Change in Stocks 2,45,113 1,89,384 3,54,154 2.1 3.5 5. Valuables 1,62,836 2,42,968 2,50,111 2.7 2.5 6. Exports 17,10,193 21,43,647 23,87,741 23.9 23.8 7. Less Imports 20,50,182 27,22,454 31,60,159 30.3 31.5 8. Discrepancies 11,968 2,73,433 3,42,973 3.0 3.4 GDP at market prices 77,95,314 89,74,947 1,00,20,620 100.0 100.0 2 nd RE: Second Revised Estimate; 1 st RE: First Revised Estimate; PE: Provisional Estimate