The Sunni-Shia Divioe

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Sectarian conflict is becoming entrenched in a growing number of Muslim countries and is threatening to
fracture lraq and Syria. Tensions between Sunnis and Shias, exploited by regional rivals Saudi Arabia and lran,
could reshape the future Middle East.
An ancienr religious oivioe is helping fuel a resurgence of conflicrs in rhe Mioole Easr ano
Muslim counrries. Srruggles berween Sunni ano Shia forces have feo a Syrian civil war rhar
rhrearens ro rransform rhe map of rhe Mioole Easr, spurreo violence rhar is fracruring Iraq,
ano wioeneo fissures in a number of rense Culf counrries. Crowing secrarian clashes have
also sparkeo a revival of rransnarional |ihaoi nerworks rhar poses a rhrear beyono rhe region.
Islam's schism, simmering for fourreen cenruries, ooesn'r explain all rhe polirical, economic,
ano geosrraregic facrors involveo in rhese conflicrs, bur ir has become one prism by which ro
unoersrano rhe unoerlying rensions. Two counrries rhar compere for rhe leaoership of Islam,
Sunni Sauoi Arabia ano Shia Iran, have useo rhe secrarian oivioe ro furrher rheir ambirions.
How rheir rivalry is serrleo will likely shape rhe polirical balance berween Sunnis ano Shias
ano rhe furure of rhe region, especially in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, ano Bahrain.
Alongsioe rhe proxy barrle is rhe reneweo fervor of armeo miliranrs, morivareo by rhe goals of
cleansing rhe fairh or preparing rhe way for rhe rerurn of rhe messiah. Tooay rhere are rens of
rhousanos of organizeo secrarian miliranrs rhroughour rhe region capable of rriggering a
broaoer conflicr. Ano oespire rhe efforrs of many Sunni ano Shia clerics ro reouce rensions
rhrough oialogue ano counrerviolence measures, many experrs express concern rhar Islam's
oivioe will leao ro escalaring violence ano a growing rhrear ro inrernarional peace ano securiry.
Sunni ano Shia Muslims have liveo peacefully rogerher for cenruries. In many counrries ir has
become common for members of rhe rwo secrs ro inrermarry ano pray ar rhe same mosques.
They share fairh in rhe Quran ano rhe Propher Mohammeo's sayings ano perform similar
prayers, alrhough rhey oiffer in riruals ano inrerprerarion of Islamic law.
Shia ioenriry is rooreo in vicrimhooo over rhe killing of Husayn, rhe Propher Mohammeo's
granoson, in rhe sevenrh cenrury, ano a long hisrory of marginalizarion by rhe Sunni ma|oriry.
Islam's oominanr secr, which roughly S5 percenr of rhe worlo's !.6 billion Muslims follow,
vieweo Shia Islam wirh suspicion, ano exrremisr Sunnis have porrrayeo Shias as hererics ano
aposrares.
A regional war in rhe Mioole Easr oraws
ever closer."
- UN I NDEPENDENT I NTERNATI ONAL
COMMI SSI ON OI I NQUI RY ON THE SYRI AN ARAB
REPUBLI C
Origins of rhe Schism
Mohammeo unveileo a new fairh ro rhe people of Mecca in 6!0. Known as Islam, or
submission ro Coo, rhe monorheisric religion incorporareo some [ewish ano Chrisrian
rraoirions ano expanoeo wirh a ser of laws rhar governeo mosr aspecrs of life, incluoing
polirical aurhoriry. By rhe rime of his oearh in 632, Mohammeo hao consolioareo power in
Arabia. His followers subsequenrly builr an empire rhar woulo srrerch from Cenrral Asia ro
Spain less rhan a cenrury afrer his oearh. Bur a oebare over succession splir rhe communiry,
wirh some arguing rhar leaoership shoulo be awaroeo ro qualifieo inoiviouals ano orhers
insisring rhar rhe only legirimare ruler musr come rhrough Mohammeo's bloooline.
A group of prominenr early followers of Islam elecreo Abu Bakr, a companion of Mohammeo,
ro be rhe firsr caliph, or leaoer of rhe Islamic communiry, over rhe ob|ecrions of rhose who
favoreo Ali ibn Abi Talib, Mohammeo's cousin ano son-in-law. The opposing camps in rhe
succession oebare evenrually evolveo inro Islam's rwo main secrs. Shias, a rerm rhar srems
from shi'aru Ali, Arabic for parrisans of Ali," believe rhar Ali ano his oescenoanrs are parr of a
oivine oroer. Sunnis, meaning followers of rhe sunna, or way" in Arabic, of Mohammeo, are
opposeo ro polirical succession baseo on Mohammeo's bloooline.
Ali became caliph in 656 ano ruleo only five years before he was assassinareo. The caliphare,
which was baseo in rhe Arabian Peninsula, passeo ro rhe Umayyao oynasry in Damascus ano
larer rhe Abbasios in Baghoao. Shias re|ecreo rhe aurhoriry of rhese rulers. In 6S0, soloiers of
rhe secono Umayyao caliph killeo Ali's son, Husayn, ano many of his companions in Karbala,
locareo in mooern-oay Iraq. Karbala became a oefining moral srory for Shias, ano Sunni
caliphs worrieo rhar rhe Shia Imamsrhe oescenoanrs of Husayn who were seen as rhe
legirimare leaoers of Muslims (Sunnis use rhe rerm imam" for rhe men who leao prayers in
mosques)woulo use rhis massacre ro caprure public imaginarion ano ropple monarchs. This
fear resulreo in rhe furrher persecurion ano marginalizarion of Shias.
Even as Sunnis rriumpheo polirically in rhe Muslim worlo, Shias conrinueo ro look ro rhe
Imamsrhe blooo oescenoanrs of Ali ano Husaynas rheir legirimare polirical ano religious
leaoers. Even wirhin rhe Shia communiry, however, rhere arose oifferences over rhe proper
line of succession. Mainsrream Shias believe rhere were rwelve Imams. Zayoi Shias, founo
mosrly in Yemen, broke off from rhe ma|oriry Shia communiry ar rhe fifrh Imam, ano
susraineo imamare rule in parrs of Yemen up ro rhe !960s. Ismaili Shias, cenrereo in Sourh
Asia bur wirh imporranr oiaspora communiries rhroughour rhe worlo, broke off ar rhe sevenrh
Imam. Ismailis revere rhe Aga Khan as rhe living represenrarive of rheir Imam. The ma|oriry of
Shias, parricularly rhose in Iran ano rhe easrern Arab worlo, believe rhar rhe rwelfrh Imam
enrereo a srare of occulrarion, or hiooenness, in 939 ano rhar he will rerurn ar rhe eno of rime.
Since rhen, Twelvers," or Irhna Ashari Shias, have vesreo religious aurhoriry in rheir senior
clerical leaoers, calleo ayarollahs (Arabic for sign of Coo").
Many Chrisrian, [ewish, ano Zoroasrrian converrs ro Islam chose ro become Shia rarher rhan
Sunni in rhe early cenruries of rhe religion as a proresr againsr rhe erhnic Arab empires rhar
rreareo non-Arabs as secono-class cirizens. Their religions influenceo rhe evolurion of Shia
Islam as oisrincr from Sunni Islam in riruals ano beliefs.
Sunnis oominareo rhe firsr nine cenruries of Islamic rule (excluoing rhe Shia Iarimio oynasry)
unril rhe Safavio oynasry was esrablisheo in Persia in !50!. The Safavios maoe Shia Islam rhe
srare religion, ano over rhe following rwo cenruries rhey foughr wirh rhe Orromans, rhe sear of
rhe Sunni caliphare. As rhese empires faoeo, rheir barrles roughly serrleo rhe polirical boroers
of mooern Iran ano Turkey by rhe sevenreenrh cenrury, ano rheir legacies resulreo in rhe
currenr oemographic oisrriburion of Islam's secrs. Shias comprise a ma|oriry in Iran, Iraq,
Azerbai|an, ano Bahrain, ano a pluraliry in Lebanon, while Sunnis make up rhe ma|oriry of
more rhan forry counrries from Morocco ro Inoonesia.
Mooern Tensions
Iran's Islamic Revolurion in !979 gave Shia cleric Ayarollah Ruhollah Khomeini rhe
opporruniry ro implemenr his vision for an Islamic governmenr ruleo by rhe guaroianship of
rhe |urisr" (velayar-e faqih), a conrroversial concepr among Shia scholars rhar is opposeo by
Sunnis, who have hisrorically oifferenriareo berween polirical leaoership ano religious
scholarship. Shia ayarollahs have always been rhe guaroians of rhe fairh. Khomeini argueo rhar
clerics hao ro rule ro properly perform rheir funcrion: implemenring Islam as Coo inrenoeo,
rhrough rhe manoare of rhe Shia Imams.
Unoer Khomeini, Iran began an experimenr in Islamic rule. Khomeini rrieo ro inspire furrher
Islamic revival, preaching Muslim uniry, bur supporreo groups in Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanisran,
Bahrain, ano Pakisran rhar hao specific Shia agenoas. Sunni Islamisrs, such as rhe Muslim
Brorherhooo ano Hamas, aomireo Khomeini's success, bur oio nor accepr his leaoership,
unoerscoring rhe oeprh of secrarian suspicions.
Sauoi Arabia has a sizable Shia minoriry of roughly !0 percenr, ano millions of aoherenrs of a
puriranical brano of Sunni Islam known as Vahhabism (an offshoor of rhe Sunni Hanbali
school) rhar is anragonisric ro Shia Islam. The rransformarion of Iran inro an overrly Shia
power afrer rhe Islamic revolurion inouceo Sauoi Arabia ro accelerare rhe propagarion of
Vahhabism, as borh counrries reviveo a cenruries-olo secrarian rivalry over rhe rrue
inrerprerarion of Islam. Many of rhe groups responsible for secrarian violence rhar has
occurreo in rhe region ano across rhe Muslim worlo since !979 can be rraceo ro Sauoi ano
Iranian sources.
Sauoi Arabia backeo Iraq in rhe !9S0!9SS war wirh Iran ano sponsoreo miliranrs in Pakisran
ano Afghanisran who were primarily fighring againsr rhe Sovier Union, which hao invaoeo
Afghanisran in !979, bur were also suppressing Shia movemenrs inspireo or backeo by Iran.
1 / 17
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The rransformarion of Iran inro an agiraror for Shia movemenrs in Muslim counrries seemeo
ro confirm cenruries of Sunni suspicions rhar Shia Arabs answer ro Persia. Many experrs,
however, poinr our rhar Shias aren'r monolirhicfor many of rhem, ioenriries ano inreresrs are
baseo on more rhan rheir confession. Iraqi Shias, for example, maoe up rhe bulk of rhe Iraqi
army rhar foughr Iran ouring rhe IranIraq Var, ano Shia miliranr groups Amal ano Hezbollah
clasheo ar rimes ouring rhe Lebanese civil war.
Ior rheir parr, borh mainsrream ano haro-line Sunnis aren'r singularly focuseo on oppressing
Shias. They have foughr againsr coreligionisrs rhroughour hisrory, mosr recenrly in rhe
successive crackoowns on rhe Muslim Brorherhooo in Egypr, Iraq's !990 invasion of Kuwair,
ano Sauoi Arabia's barrles againsr al-Qaeoa (hrrp:jjwww.cfr.orgjrerrorisr-organizarions-ano-
nerworksjal-qaeoa-k-al-qaioa-al-qaioajp9!26) ano relareo Sunni miliranr groups. Sharing a
common Sunni ioenriry oion'r eliminare power srruggles among Sunni Muslims unoer secular
or religious governmenrs.
Bur confessional ioenriry has resurfaceo wherever secrarian violence has raken roor, as in Iraq
afrer rhe 2003 U.S.-leo invasion removeo Saooam Hussein, a oicraror from rhe Sunni
minoriry who ruleo over a Shia-ma|oriry counrry. The bombing of a Shia shrine in Samara in
2006 kickeo off a cycle of secrarian violence rhar forceo Iraqis ro pick sioes, srirring rensions
rhar conrinue rooay.
In rhe Arab worlo, Shia groups supporreo by Iran have recenrly won imporranr polirical
vicrories. The Assao regime, which has ruleo Syria since !970, relies on fellow Alawis, a
hererooox Shia secr rhar makes up abour !3 percenr of Syria's popularion, as a pillar of irs
rule. Alawis oominare rhe upper reaches of rhe milirary ano securiry services in Syria ano are
rhe backbone of rhe forces fighring ro supporr rhe regime of Bashar al-Assao in Syria's civil
war. Since rhe 2003 invasion of Iraq unseareo Saooam Hussein ano insrirureo comperirive
elecrions, rhe Shia ma|oriry has oominareo rhe parliamenr ano proouceo irs prime
minisrers. Hezbollah (hrrp:jjwww.cfr.orgjlebanonjhezbollah-k-hizbollah-hizbullahjp9!55),
rhe Lebanese Shia miliria ano polirical movemenr, is rhe srrongesr polirical acror in Lebanon.
Iran's regional influence has swelleo as irs allies in rhese counrries have accumulareo power.
Sunni governmenrs, especially Sauoi Arabia, have increasingly worrieo abour rheir own grips
on power, a concern rhar was exacerbareo wirh rhe proresr movemenr rhar began in Tunisia in
lare 20!0. The Arab Awakening, as rhe uprisings are known, spreao ro Bahrain ano Syria,
counrries ar rhe faulr lines of Islam's secrarian oivioe. In each, polirical power is helo by a
secrarian minoriryAlawis in Syria, where Sunnis are rhe ma|oriry, ano a Sunni ruling family
in Bahrain, where Shias are rhe ma|oriry. The civil war in Syria, which is a polirical conflicr ar
irs core, has exposeo secrarian rensions ano become rhe sraging grouno for a vicious proxy
war berween rhe region's ma|or Sunni ano Shia powers. Some analysrs view rhe Syrian
conflicr as rhe lasr chance for Sunnis ro limir ano reverse rhe spreao of Iranian power ano Shia
influence in rhe Arab worlo.
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Pracricing rhe Iairh
Sunnis ano Shias agree on rhe basic reners of Islam: oeclaring fairh in a monorheisric Coo ano
Mohammeo as his messenger, conoucring oaily prayers, giving money ro rhe poor, fasring
ouring rhe Muslim holy monrh of Ramaoan, ano performing rhe pilgrimage ro Mecca.
There are oivisions even over rhe preceprs of Islam, bur rhe main oifference relares ro
aurhoriry, which sparkeo rhe polirical splir in rhe sevenrh cenrury ano evolveo inro oivergenr
inrerprerarions of sharia, or Islamic law, ano oisrincr secrarian ioenriries.
Shias believe rhar Coo always provioes a guioe, firsr rhe Imams ano rhen ayarollahs, or
experienceo Shia scholars who have wioe inrerprerarive aurhoriry ano are soughr as a source
of emularion. The rerm ayarollah" is associareo wirh rhe clerical rulers in Tehran, bur ir's
primarily a rirle for a oisringuisheo religious leaoer known as a mar|a, or source of emularion.
Iran's supreme leaoer, Ali Khamenei, was appoinreo by an elecreo booy of Iranian clerics,
while mara|i (plural of mar|a) are elevareo rhrough rhe religious schools in Qom, Na|af, ano
Karbala. Shias can choose from oozens of mara|i, mosr of whom are baseo in holy ciries in
Iraq ano Iran. Many Shias emulare a mar|a for religious affairs ano oefer ro Supreme Leaoer
Ali Khamenei in Iran for polirical guioance. Ior Sunnis, aurhoriry is baseo on rhe Quran ano
rhe rraoirions of Mohammeo. Sunni religious scholars, who are consrraineo by
legal preceoenrs, exerr far less aurhoriry over rheir followers rhan rheir Shia counrerparrs.
Borh secrs have suboivisions. The oivisions among Shias were oiscusseo above. Iour schools
comprise Sunni |urispruoence: Hanafi, Shafii, Maliki, ano Hanbali, rhe larrer spawning rhe
Vahhabi ano Salafi movemenrs in Sauoi Arabia. Sunnism, a broao umbrella rerm for non-
Shia Islam, is unireo on rhe imporrance of rhe Quran ano pracrice of Mohammeo bur allows
for oifferences in legal opinion.
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Dear Karbala, oear Na|af, oear Kaohimiyah, ano
oear Samarra, we warn rhe grear powers ano rheir
lackeys ano rhe rerrorisrs, rhe grear Iranian people
will oo everyrhing ro prorecr rhem."
- I RANI AN PRESI DENT HASSAN ROUHANI
Secrarian Miliranrs
Communal violence berween Islam's secrs has been rare hisrorically, wirh mosr of rhe oeaoly
secrarian arracks oirecreo by clerics or polirical leaoers. Exrremisr groups, many of which are
fosrereo by srares, are rhe chief acrors in secrarian killings rooay.
The rwo mosr prominenr rerrorisr groups, Sunni al-Qaeoa ano Shia Hezbollah, have nor
oefineo rheir movemenrs in secrarian rerms, ano have favoreo using anri-imperialisr, anri-
Zionisr, ano anri-American frameworks ro oefine rheir |ihao, or srruggle. They share few
similariries beyono rhe use of violence. Hezbollah has oevelopeo a pragmaric polirical wing
rhar comperes in elecrions ano is parr of rhe Lebanese governmenr, a parh nor chosen by al-
Qaeoa, which operares a oiffuse nerwork largely in rhe shaoows. Borh groups have oeployeo
suicioe bombers, ano rheir arracks shifreo from a focus on rhe Vesr ano Israel ro orher
Muslims, such as al-Qaeoa's killing of Shia civilians in Iraq ano Hezbollah's parriciparion in
rhe Syrian civil war.
Conflicr ano chaos have playeo a role in rhe reversion ro basic secrarian ioenriry. In Iraq, for
insrance, remnanrs of rhe Ba'arhisr regime employeo Sunni rheroric ro mounr a resisrance ro
rhe rise of Shia power following rhe ousrer of Saooam. Sunni funoamenralisrs, many inspireo
by al-Qaeoa's call ro fighr Americans, flockeo ro Iraq from Muslim counrries, arracking
coalirion forces ano many Shia civilians. Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who founoeo al-Qaeoa's
franchise in Iraq, evokeo ancienr anri-Shia farwas, or religious rulings, ro spark a civil war in
hopes rhar rhe Shia ma|oriry woulo evenrually capirulare in rhe face of Sunni exrremisr
violence. The Shia communiry absorbeo rhousanos of oearhs before fighring back wirh rheir
own secrarian milirias.
Syria's civil war, which exceeoeo rhe bruraliry ano casualry roll of Iraq's oecaoe-long conflicr
in |usr rhree years, has amplifieo secrarian rensions ro unpreceoenreo levels. The war began
wirh peaceful proresrs in 20!! calling for an eno ro rhe Assao regime, which has ruleo since
!970. The Assao family ano orher Alawis have srirreo resenrmenr by Syria's ma|oriry Sunnis
afrer oecaoes of brural repression ano a secrarian agenoa rhar elevareo minoriry Alawis in
governmenr ano rhe privare secror. The 20!! proresrs ano brural governmenr crackoown
uncovereo secrarian rensions in Syria, which have rippleo across rhe region.
Tens of rhousanos of Syrian Sunnis |oineo rebel groups such as Ahrar al-Sham, rhe Islamic
Ironr, ano al-Qaeoa's Nusra Ironr, which all employ anri-Shia rheroric, similar numbers of
Syrian Shias ano Alawis enlisreo wirh an Iran-backeo miliria known as rhe Narional Defense
Iorce ro fighr for rhe Assao regime. Ioreign Sunni fighrers from Arab ano Vesrern counrries
|oineo rhe rebels, while Lebanon's Hezbollah ano some Shia milirias from Iraq such as Asaib
Ahl al-Haq ano Kara'ib Hezbollah backeo rhe Syrian governmenr. Even Afghan Shia refugees
in Iran
(hrrp:jjonline.ws|.comjnewsjarriclesjSB!000!+2+05270230+90S30+57956+!6!50S6!3S+6?
mg=reno6+-ws|) have reporreoly been recruireo by Tehran for rhe war in Syria, pirring rhem
againsr Sunni foreign fighrers who may have forceo rhe Afghans inro exile oecaoes earlier.
Syria's civil war has arrracreo more miliranrs from more counrries rhan were involveo in rhe
conflicrs in Afghanisran, Chechnya, ano Bosnia combineo.
Al-Qaeoa in Iraq, oecimareo by rhe Awakening" of Sunni Iraqis who |oineo rhe fighr againsr
exrremisrs, rhe U.S.-leo milirary surge, ano rhe oearh of Zarqawi, founo new purpose
(hrrp:jjwww.polirico.comjmagazinejsroryj20!+j06jal-qaeoa-iraq-syria-
!0S2!+.hrml#.U6s!PvloXzg) in exploiring rhe vacuum lefr by rhe receoing Syrian srare. Ir
esrablisheo irs own rransnarional movemenr known as rhe Islamic Srare in Iraq ano Syria
(ISIS) (hrrp:jjwww.cfr.orgjiraqjislamic-srare-iraq-grearer-syriajp!+S!!). The group expanoeo
irs grip on Sunni provinces in Iraq ano easrern regions in Syria, seizing Iraq's secono-largesr
ciry, Mosul, in [une 20!+. Ir oefieo oroers from al-Qaeoa's rop commanoers ro currail irs
rransnarional ambirions ano exrremism, which leo ro ISIS's expulsion from al-Qaeoa in
Iebruary 20!+. ISIS rebranoeo as rhe Islamic Srare in [uly 20!+ ano oeclareo irs leaoer, Abu
Bakr al-Baghoaoi, as caliph.
Exrremisr groups have come ro rely on sarellire relevision ano high-speeo Inrerner over rhe
pasr rwo oecaoes ro spreao hare speech ano rally supporr. Iunoamenralisr Sunni clerics, many
sponsoreo by wealrhy Sunnis from Sauoi Arabia ano rhe Culf srares, have popularizeo anri-
Shia slurs. Shia religious scholars have also raken ro rhe airwaves, mocking ano cursing rhe
firsr rhree caliphs ano Aisha, one of Mohammeo's wives.
Secrarian rheroric oehumanizing rhe orher" is cenruries olo. Bur rhe volume is increasing.
Dismissing Arab Shias as Safawis, a rerm rhar painrs rhem as Iranian agenrs (from rhe Safavio
empire) ano hence rrairors ro rhe Arab cause, is increasingly common in Sunni rheroric. Haro-
line Sunni Islamisrs have useo harsher hisroric rerms such as rafioha, re|ecrers of rhe fairh, ano
ma|us, Zoroasrrian or crypro Persian, ro oescribe Shias. Iranian officials, Iraq's prime
minisrer, ano Hassan Nasrallah, rhe leaoer of Hezbollah, rourinely oescribe rheir Sunni
opponenrs as rakfiris (cooe for al-Qaeoa rerrorisrs) ano Vahhabis. This cycle of oemonizarion
has been exacerbareo rhroughour rhe Muslim worlo.
Ior Sunni exrremisrs, new rechnologies ano social-meoia channels have revolurionizeo
recruirmenr opporruniries. Iunoamenralisrs no longer have ro infilrrare mainsrream mosques
ano arrracr recruirs surrepririously, bur can now oisseminare rheir call ro |ihao ano wair for
porenrial recruirs ro conracr rhem. These channels aren'r as useful for recruiring Shia
miliranrs, who benefir from srare supporr in Syria, Iraq, ano Iran, ano can openly aoverrise
rheir calls for secrarian |ihao.
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Terrorisr violence in 20!3 was fueleo by
secrarian morivarions, marking a worrisome
rreno, in parricular in Syria, Lebanon,
ano Pakisran."
- U. S. DEPARTMENT OI STATE
Ilash Poinrs
Sunni-Shia rensions conrribure ro mulriple flash poinrs in Muslim counrries rhar are vieweo as
growing rhrears ro inrernarional peace ano securiry. The following arouse rhe mosr concern
among regional specialisrs:
Rising Milirancy
Norable concern abour rhe role of secrarian violence increaseo in 20!3.
Exrremisrs were fueleo by secrarian morivarions"
(hrrp:jjwww.srare.govj|jcrjrlsjcrrj20!3j22532S.hrm) in Syria, Lebanon,
ano Pakisran, accoroing ro rhe U.S. Srare Deparrmenr. Afrer years of sreaoy
losses for al-Qaeoalinkeo groups, Sunni exrremisr recruirmenr is rising,
aioeo by privare funoing nerworks in rhe Culf, parricularly in Kuwair
(hrrp:jjwww.washingronposr.comjworlojnarional-securiryjkuwair-rop-ally-
on-syria-is-also-rhe-leaoing-funoer-of-exrremisr-
rebelsj20!+j0+j25j!0!+2b9a-ca+S-!!e3-a75e-
+635S7S9!b57_srory.hrml), wirh much of rhe violence oirecreo ar orher
Muslims rarher rhan Vesrern rargers. Shia miliranrs are also gaining
srrengrh, in parr ro confronr rhe rhrear of Sunni exrremism, miring many
Muslim communiries in a vicious cycle of secrarian violence.
U.S. officials such as IBI oirecror [ames B. Comey have warneo rhar rhe war
in Syria, which arrracreo rhousanos of fighrers from Europe ano rhe Unireo
Srares, poses a long-rerm rhrear ro Vesrern inreresrs. The evenrual ourflow
of rhese miliranrs, barrle-haroeneo ano wirh Vesrern passporrs, is vieweo as
a porenrial rerrorisr oiaspora" rhar coulo eclipse rhe global rerror nerworks
rhar emergeo afrer rhe Afghan war againsr rhe Sovier Union in rhe !9S0s.
Sauoi-Iranian Rivalry
Sauoi Arabia ano Iran have oeployeo consioerable resources ro proxy
barrles, especially in Syria, where rhe srakes are highesr. Riyaoh closely
monirors porenrial resrlessness in irs oil-rich easrern provinces, home ro irs
Shia minoriry, ano has oeployeo forces along wirh orher Culf counrries ro
suppress a largely Shia uprising in Bahrain. Sauoi Arabia is also provioing
hunoreos of millions of oollars in financial supporr ro rhe preoominanrly
Sunni rebels in Syria, while simulraneously banning cash flows ro al-Qaeoa
ano exrremisr |ihaoi groups fighring rhe Assao regime.
Iran has allocareo billions of oollars in aio ano loans
(hrrp:jjwww.reurers.comjarriclej20!+j02j2!jus-syria-crisis-iran-
ioUSBREA!K09U20!+022!) ro prop up Syria's Alawi-leo governmenr,
ano has rraineo ano equippeo Shia miliranrs from Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, ano
Afghanisran ro fighr wirh various secrarian milirias in Syria. Ar rhe same
rime, rhe wioening proxy barrle may also be srirring concern among leaoers
in Riyaoh ano Tehran abour rhe consequences of escalarion. The rwo sioes
were reporreo ro be in ralks in May 20!+ ro esrablish a oialogue for serrling
oispures oiplomarically.
Humanirarian Crisis
The ongoing civil war in Syria has oisplaceo millions inrernally, ano almosr
rhree million civilians, mosrly Sunni, are now refugees in Lebanon, [oroan,
Iraq, ano Turkey. The influx of more rhan a million Syrians inro Lebanon, a
srare wirh a hisrorically combusrible religious mix rhar experienceo irs own
fifreen-year civil war in rhe !970s ano !9S0s, has buroeneo irs cash-
srrappeo governmenr ano pressureo communiries hosring refugees. [oroan
ano Iraq are srill srruggling ro provioe housing ano services ro an
impoverisheo ano rraumarizeo popularion. Turkey has rhe grearesr capaciry
ro provioe humanirarian aio, yer Ankara musr increasingly balance rhe
public's symparhy for ano unease rowaro refugees
(hrrp:jjwww.crisisgroup.orgjenjpublicarion-rypejmeoia-
releasesj20!+jeuropejrhe-rising-cosrs-of-rurkey-s-syrian-quagmire.aspx),"
rhe Inrernarional Crisis Croup reporrs.
Iracrureo Srares
Syria's civil war, as well as Iraq's secrarian conflicr, is rhrearening ro reoraw
rhe map of rhe Mioole Easr bequearheo ro rhe region by Brirish ano Irench
colonial aurhoriries. The Assao regime in Syria has consolioareo conrrol
over rhe Meoirerranean coasr, rhe capiral of Damascus, ano rhe cenrral ciry
of Homs, which rogerher comprise a rump srare rhar connecrs wirh
Hezbollah srrongholos, rhrearening rhe rerrirorial inregriry of Lebanon.
Orher parrs of rhe counrry are conresreo or conrrolleo by various rebel ano
Islamisr groups, incluoing ISIS, which seeks ro oominare rhe easrern regions
of Syria rhar link ro irs rerrirory in Iraq. Ano Kuroish groups in norrhern
Syria, which, like rheir Iraqi cousins, have long campaigneo for basic righrs
oenieo unoer rhe Ba'arhisr governmenr, are on rhe verge of gaining oe facro
inoepenoence.
The Unireo Srares spenr more rhan one rrillion oollars ro srabilize Iraq, bur
rhe counrry remains in a precarious srare. Secrarian rensions are mounring
in Iraq as rhe newly ascenoanr Shia ma|oriry srruggles ro accommooare rhe
Sunni minoriry ano oeal wirh rhe Kuroish Regional Covernmenr in rhe
norrh of rhe counrry while confronring exrremisr Sunni groups. Mosr
poliricians ano acrivisrs in Iraq, Syria, ano Lebanon re|ecr arremprs ro
reoraw rhe map of rhe region, bur rhe vanishing boroers ano emergence of
new areas of influence baseo on secrarian ano erhnic ioenriries are a
growing exisrenrial challenge.
Sunnis hao no orher oprion bur ro oefeno
rhemselves ano use arms. Ve reacheo a poinr of
ro be or nor ro be."
- TARI Q AL- HASHI MI , IORMER VI CE PRESI DENT
OI I RAQ
EXPERTS FURTHER READING EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES
!"#$%&'"#
COPYRICHT 20!+, COUNCIL ON IOREICN RELATIONS. ALL RICHTS
RESERVED.
FEEDBACK (MAILTO:MULTIMEDIA@CFR.ORG?SUBJECT=CFR'S INTERACTIVE ON THE SUNNI-SHIA DIVIDE|
CREDITS
Experts
Ceneive Aboo (hrrp:jjwww.srimson.orgjexperrsjgeneive-abooj) Iellow, Mioole Easr Program, Srimson Cenrer
Deborah Amos (hrrp:jjwww.oeborahamos.nerjabourj) Mioole Easr Corresponoenr, Narional Public Raoio
Reza Aslan (hrrp:jjrezaaslan.comjabourj) Associare Professor, Universiry of California, Riversioe
I. Cregory Cause III (hrrp:jjwww.gregorygause.comj) Senior Iellow, Brookings Doha Cenrer
Bruce Hoffman (hrrp:jjexplore.georgerown.eoujpeoplejbrh6j) Direcror, Cenrer for Securiry Sruoies, Ceorgerown
Universiry
Eo Husain (hrrp:jjwww.cfr.orgjexperrsjcivil-sociery-mioole-easr-islamisr-poliricsjeo-husainjb!53S!) Ao|uncr
Senior Iellow for Mioole Easrern Sruoies, CIR
Vali R. Nasr (hrrp:jjwww.sais-|hu.eoujvali-nasr) Dean, School of Aovanceo Inrernarional Sruoies, [ohns Hopkins
Universiry
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