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Analysis of PM
10
, PM
2.5
, and PM
2.510
Concentrations in
Santiago, Chile, from 1989 to 2001
Petros Koutrakis
a
, Sonja N. Sax
a
, Jeremy A. Sarnat
a
, Brent Coull
a
, Phil Demokritou
a
, Phil Demokritou
a
, Pedro Oyola
b
, Javier Garcia
c
& Ernesto Gramsch
d
a
Harvard University , School of Public Health , Boston , MA , USA
b
Universidad de So Paulo , So Paulo , Brazil
c
Comision Nacional del Medio Ambiente (CONAMA) , Santiago , Chile , USA
d
Department of Physics , University of Santiago , Santiago , Chile , USA
Published online: 01 Mar 2012.
To cite this article: Petros Koutrakis , Sonja N. Sax , Jeremy A. Sarnat , Brent Coull , Phil Demokritou , Phil
Demokritou , Pedro Oyola , Javier Garcia & Ernesto Gramsch (2005) Analysis of PM
10
, PM
2.5
, and PM
2.510
Concentrations
in Santiago, Chile, from 1989 to 2001, Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association, 55:3, 342-351, DOI:
10.1080/10473289.2005.10464627
To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10473289.2005.10464627
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Analysis of PM
10
, PM
2.5
, and PM
2.510
Concentrations in
Santiago, Chile, from 1989 to 2001
Petros Koutrakis, Sonja N. Sax, Jeremy A. Sarnat, Brent Coull, and Phil Demokritou
Harvard University, School of Public Health, Boston, MA
Pedro Oyola
Universidad de Sa o Paulo, Sa o Paulo, Brazil
Javier Garcia
Comision Nacional del Medio Ambiente (CONAMA), Santiago, Chile
Ernesto Gramsch
University of Santiago, Department of Physics, Santiago, Chile
ABSTRACT
Daily particle samples were collected in Santiago, Chile, at
four urban locations from January 1, 1989, through De-
cember 31, 2001. Both ne PM with d
a
2.5 m (PM
2.5
)
and coarse PM with 2.5d
a
10 m (PM
2.510
) were col-
lected using dichotomous samplers. The inhalable parti-
cle fraction, PM
10
, was determined as the sum of ne and
coarse concentrations. Wind speed, temperature and rel-
ative humidity (RH) were also measured continuously.
Average concentrations of PM
2.5
for the 19892001 pe-
riod ranged from 38.5 g/m
3
to 53 g/m
3
. For PM
2.510
levels ranged from 35.848.2 g/m
3
and for PM
10
results
were 74.4101.2 g/m
3
across the four sites. Both annual
and daily PM
2.5
and PM
10
concentration levels exceeded
the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standards and the
European Union concentration limits. Mean PM
2.5
levels
during the cold season (April through September) were
more than twice as high as those observed in the warm
season (October through March); whereas coarse particle
levels were similar in both seasons. PM concentration
trends were investigated using regression models,
controlling for site, weekday, month, wind speed, tem-
perature, and RH. Results showed that PM
2.5
concentra-
tions decreased substantially, 52% over the 12-year period
(19892000), whereas PM
2.510
concentrations increased
by 50% in the rst 5 years and then decreased by a
similar percentage over the following 7 years. These de-
creases were evident even after controlling for signicant
climatic effects. These results suggest that the pollution
reduction programs developed and implemented by the
Comisio n Nacional del Medio Ambiente (CONAMA) have
been effective in reducing particle levels in the Santiago
Metropolitan region. However, particle levels remain high
and it is thus imperative that efforts to improve air quality
continue.
INTRODUCTION
Santiago, Chile, is one of the most polluted cities in South
America with high levels of nitrogen oxide and dioxide,
CO, ozone, PM
2.5
, and PM
10
, polycyclic aromatic hydro-
carbons, and black carbon.
111
It is situated in a closed
basin that experiences frequent thermal inversions, espe-
cially in the winter. The combination of these meteoro-
logical and topographical factors and a rapidly growing
economy has given rise to elevated gaseous and particu-
late pollutant concentrations in the Metropolitan area.
Much of the economic growth experienced in Santiago
has been in the industrial sector, which has contributed
to the air pollution problems.
6
In addition, the vehicle
eet in Santiago has doubled between 1990 and 1997.
12
Previous work conducted in Chile has shown that the
majority of particles generated outdoors penetrate
indoors because homes in Santiago tend to be well
IMPLICATIONS
This paper examines particle measurements in Santiago,
Chile, from 1989 to 2001. The substantial decrease in par-
ticle levels over the 12-year study period strongly suggests
that the pollution reduction programs implemented by
CONAMA have been successful. However, despite the sig-
nicant improvement in air quality of Santiago, particle
levels still exceed both national and international standards
suggesting that efforts to reduce air pollution should be
continued.
TECHNICAL PAPER
ISSN 1047-3289 J. Air & Waste Manage. Assoc. 55:342351
Copyright 2005 Air & Waste Management Association
342 Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association Volume 55 March 2005
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ventilated.
13,14
In addition, several studies have found
health effects associated with high air pollution levels in
Santiago including daily mortality
15,16
and medical visits
for respiratory illnesses.
1719
Reducing exposures to high
levels of air pollution in Santiago, therefore, can have
both short and long-term public health benets, making
this issue a priority for the Chilean government. A better
understanding of factors that inuence air pollution lev-
els will aid policy-making and mitigation measures.
In an effort to improve air quality in the Santiago
metropolitan area, a number of control strategies have
been developed and have been steadily implemented over
the last 15 years. In the late 1980s car-use bans were
imposed based on license plate number and mandatory
vehicle inspections were implemented. In the early 1990s,
new cars were required to have catalytic converters, emis-
sion standards were set for industrial and nonindustrial
sources of pollution as well as residential heating, and an
emissions trading program was set up.
12
To date, a large
fraction of the old bus eet has been replaced with cleaner
diesel fuel buses and this effort is expected to continue
until the entire eet is replaced. Other more recent ac-
tions include: cleaning and paving streets and planting
trees along the valley to reduce road dust, the reduction of
sulfur levels in oil, the reduction of benzene emissions,
and the reduction of olen emissions.
In addition, the Chilean Ministry of Health has sup-
ported a comprehensive air quality-monitoring network
in Santiago that has been in operation since the mid-
1980s. This network provides the basis for investigating
the spatial and temporal prole of air pollution levels
throughout the Metropolitan area and aids in the evalu-
ation of the effectiveness of emission control strategies.
Using intervention analysis Jorquera et al.
12
analyzed
trends in PM
10
, PM
2.5
, and ozone concentrations between
19891998 and found an annual decrease in PM concen-
tration over the course of these years. Our analysis builds
on this previous study by using regression analysis to
examine trends over a longer period while controlling for
corresponding changes in meteorology. In addition, spa-
tial differences in particle concentrations are also ex-
plored. The analysis includes particle data (PM
10
, [d
a
10
m], PM
2.5
, [d
a
2.5 m], and, PM
2.510
, [2.5d
a
10
m]) obtained at four urban sites in Santiago, Chile (Las
Condes, Parque OHiggins, La Paz, and Providencia) from
19892001.
METHODS
Sampling and Analysis
PM
2.5
and PM
2.510
sampling were conducted at four ur-
ban sites in Santiago: Las Condes, Parque OHiggins, La
Paz, and Providencia. Las Condes is situated 10 km
Northeast of downtown Santiago, and 200 m from a busy
road (Avenida Las Condes). It is a sparsely populated and
afuent residential section of Santiago with no major
industrial sources nearby. However, this site is downwind
of emissions from the downtown area, and is character-
ized by high levels of secondary pollutants such as per-
oxyacetyl nitrate, ozone, and organic aerosols.
20
Parque
OHiggins is located inside the largest park of the Santiago
Metropolitan area, close to an amusement park, a roller-
blading rink and the University of Chile campus. More
importantly, it is located approximately 1.5 km from a
major highway (the Panamericana), and near many im-
portant pollutant sources such as mechanic shops, metal
works and other small businesses.
The La Paz site is located in a residential area of
Santiago a few kilometers North/Northwest of the down-
town area and is mostly impacted by local trafc emis-
sions. Kerosene and propane are typically used for domes-
tic heating during the winter months in this old area of
Santiago.
The Providencia site is located a few meters from a
major avenue of Santiago, Avenida Providencia, near the
center of the city. This is a commercial/residential area
impacted by heavy trafc, mostly from public transporta-
tion such as buses and taxis. In 2000, monitoring at this
site was terminated because it did not meet the siting
criteria of the surveillance network due to the presence of
trees surrounding the site.
Twenty-four hour particle samples (midnight to mid-
night) were collected daily during the period from Janu-
ary 1, 1989, through December 31, 2001, with the above-
noted exception of Providencia, where sampling was
conducted only through 2000. Filter samples were col-
lected every day during the cold season (April through
September) and every other day during the warm season
(October through March). Coarse particles, PM
2.510
,
(aerodynamic diameter 2.510 m) and ne particles,
PM
2.5
, (aerodynamic diameter 2.5 m) lter samples
were collected using dichotomous samplers (Andersen;
Anderson Instruments Inc., Smyrna, GA). The total sam-
pling ow rate was 16.7 l/min (15 l/min for ne particles,
major ow, and 1.7 L/min for coarse particles, minor
ow). Sampler inlets were located 3 m above the ground.
Particles were collected on 37 mm Teon lters. Each
lter was inspected for its integrity before use. Particle
concentrations were determined gravimetrically using an
electronic microbalance, Precisa, with a resolution of 0.01
mg. Both blank and eld lter samples were conditioned
at constant temperature (22 3 C) and relative humidity
(RH) (40%5%) conditions for at least 24 hr before being
weighed. Inhalable particle concentrations, PM
10
, were
calculated as the sum of coarse and ne particle concen-
trations. Finally, meteorological parameters such as wind
speed, wind direction and temperature were measured for
Koutrakis et al.
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all four sites during particle sampling. However, complete
data were only available from the La Paz site, and this was
thus the only meteorological data used in the current
analysis.
Data Analysis
Complete particle data for all four sites were available
only for the years 1989 through 2000, which accordingly
were the years included in the regression analysis. These
regression models allow for the analysis of categorical
variables such as site, year, month, and weekday. The
strength of the association was determined by the signif-
icance of the slope t-values. All continuous data were
converted to categorical variables to capture nonlinear
relationships over time. Meteorological variables were di-
chotomized or trichotomized using the following ranges:
for wind speed, ws 0.8 m/sec, 0.8 ws 1.6 m/sec, ws
1.6 m/sec; for RH, rh 70% and rh 70% and; for
temperature t 20 C and t 20 C. Wind direction data
were also modeled but found to be nonsignicant and
therefore were not included in the analysis.
For each of the categorical variables a reference level
was set, with subsequent effects calculated relative to that
reference variable. For this analysis, Saturday, December,
Providencia and Year 2000 were set as the reference vari-
ables for weekday, month, site, and year, respectively. For
the meteorological variables, the highest ranges were used
as the reference for the corresponding group (ws 1.6
m/sec; rh 70% and; t 20 C).
Relationships between PM
10
, PM
2.5
, PM
2.510
, and
meteorological variables were investigated using mixed
regression models to identify specic factors inuenc-
ing particle concentrations and quantify their relative
impact (Statistical Applications Systems, SAS, Cary,
NC). Particulate concentrations were log-normally dis-
tributed, thus concentrations were log transformed and
the natural logs (ln[PM]) were regressed against the
categorical values:
lnPM a sj*sj yj*yj mj*mj wj*wj
wsj*wsj tmpj*tmpj rhj*rhj (1)
where, is the regression intercept and sj, yj, mj, wj,
wsj, tmpj, and rhj are the regression coefcients of the
independent variables: site, sj, (j 14); year, yj, (j
112); month, mj, (j 112); weekday, wj, (j 17); wind
speed, wsj, (j 13); temperature, tmpj, (j 12); and RH,
rhj, (j 12).
Based on eq 1, particle concentrations can be ex-
pressed as the product of the exponential terms:
PM expa*expsj*sj yj*yj mj*mj
wj*wj wsj*wsj tmpj*tmpj
rhj*rhj (2)
For simplicity eq 2 was transformed as follows:
PM I*f
sitej
*f
*yearj
*f
monthlj
*f
weekdayj
*f
wsj
*f
tmpj
*f
rhj
(3)
where fij exp[ij*var ij] is the concentration impact
factor of a variable i (e.g., Site) of a category j (e.g., La Paz).
Because the regression coefcient of a reference variable is
0, its concentration impact factor equals 1. Therefore, the
intercept concentration impact factor, I e

, corresponds
to the average concentration at the reference level (e.g.,
Providencia, Year 2000, December, Saturday, ws 1.6
m/s, rh 70%, and t 20 C). An impact factor greater
than 1 represents a greater concentration of PM relative to
the reference point and a value less than one represents a
concentration that is lower relative to the reference. All
the regression results will be discussed in terms of con-
centration impact factors because this facilitates compar-
isons of the effect of the different parameters on the
concentration levels. The concept of impact factors has
previously been utilized.
21
It is worth noting that from eq 3 the effects of the
different parameters are multiplicative rather than addi-
tive. For example, the concentration differences between
Sundays and Mondays may vary each year, season, etc., as
might be expected, but their ratio remains the same.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Concentration Levels
PM
2.5
Concentration. Mean concentrations corresponding
to the entire sampling period of 19892001 were deter-
mined separately for each of the four sites (except Provi-
dencia for which no data were available in 2001). Also,
mean concentrations across the years sampled were de-
termined separately for each season (Table 1), and the
overall mean was estimated by averaging the means of the
two seasons. Averaging all daily measurements would
lead to an overestimation of mean concentrations be-
cause of the unbalanced seasonal sampling scheme and
the large differences in concentration levels between the
cold and warm season. Figures 1 and 2, present the PM
2.5
concentration distributions for each of the four sites for
both the cold and warm seasons, respectively. For com-
parison purposes the PM
2.5
concentration distribution
plots include the daily U.S. Environment Protection
Agency (EPA) standard of 65 g/m
3
, shown as dashed
Koutrakis et al.
344 Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association Volume 55 March 2005
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lines. On the PM
10
distribution plots the standard of 150
g/m
3
is also indicated by a dashed line.
Mean PM
2.5
particle concentrations varied by site,
ranging from 38.5 g/m
3
at Las Condes to 53 g/m
3
at
Parque OHiggins. The highest concentrations were ob-
served at Parque OHiggins followed by Providencia be-
cause of the impact of the Panamericana highway and
downtown trafc on particulate concentrations at these
sites, respectively. Note that concentration levels at the
Providencia site may be underestimated because the site is
surrounded by trees. Lower concentration levels were ob-
served at the La Paz site since this site is less impacted by
trafc. The lowest ne particle concentrations were ob-
served at Las Condes, which is located in the northern
suburbs, and is the least impacted by trafc sources.
PM
2.5
concentrations exhibited a strong seasonal pat-
tern with mean concentrations 23 times higher during
the cold season (AprilSeptember). The site specic cold/
warm season PM
2.5
ratio varied between 1.9, at the least
polluted site (Las Condes), and 2.8 at the most polluted
site (Parque OHiggins). Figure 3a depicts the time series
of monthly PM
2.5
particle concentrations. As can be seen
in this gure, concentrations exhibit a pronounced sea-
sonal pattern throughout the entire study period with
max monthly concentration decreasing each year. This
yearly trend is further discussed below in the presentation
of the results from the regression analysis.
The observed mean PM
2.5
concentrations levels were
in general higher than annual mean levels measured in
other Chilean cites such as Rancagua 42.6 g/m
3
, which is
impacted by copper smelting emissions, Temuco 35.2 g/
m
3
, impacted mostly by biomass burning, and Valparaiso
35.7 g/m
3
, impacted by a mixture of industrial and traf-
c emissions.
22
Furthermore, the PM
2.5
concentrations
found in Santiago were two to three times higher than
those measured in major urban and industrial cities
throughout Western Europe and North America.
23
Mean
concentration levels determined for all four sites were
substantially higher than the EPA annual PM
2.5
standard
of 15 g/m
3
. Also, 10% of the daily PM
2.5
concentra-
tions exceeded the EPA daily limit (65 g/m
3
) during the
12-year sampling period.
Table 1. Mean PM
2.5
and PM
2.510
, PM
10
concentrations, expressed in
g/m
3
(19892001).
Size/season Las Condes OHiggins La Paz Providencia
PM
2.5
Cold 50.6 (28.3) 78.2 (48.3) 66.4 (41.2) 67.0 (37.8)
Warm 26.4 (12.8) 27.8 (13.7) 27.6 (11.6) 31.5 (13.6)
Year 38.5 53.0 47.0 49.2
Cold/warm 1.9 2.8 2.4 2.1
PM
2.510
Cold 33.4 (16.7) 53.6 (29.8) 48.6 (22.6) 41.5 (18.8)
Warm 38.3 (13.4) 42.8 (14.4) 42.4 (15.4) 40.2 (12.7)
Year 35.8 48.2 45.5 40.9
Cold/warm 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.0
PM
10
Cold 84.0 (39.5) 131.8 (71.2) 114.3 (54.8) 108.0 (50.6)
Warm 64.7 (19.4) 70.6 (23.5) 70.0 (22.8) 71.6 (22.0)
Year 74.4 101.2 92.2 89.8
Cold/warm 1.3 1.9 1.6 1.5
PM
2.5
/PM
10
Cold 0.60 0.59 0.58 0.62
Warm 0.41 0.39 0.39 0.44
Year 0.52 0.52 0.51 0.55
Figure 1. Distributions of daily concentrations during the cold
season (AprilSeptember) for (a) PM
2.5
, (b) PM
2.510
, and (c) PM
10
.
Dashed line on (a) shows the EPA standard of 65 g/m
3
for PM
2.5
and on 1(c) the EPA standard of 150 g/m
3
for PM
10
.
Koutrakis et al.
Volume 55 March 2005 Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 345
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PM
10
Concentrations. Table 1 presents the mean PM
10
concentrations for each of the four sites: Las Condes,
74.4 g/m
3
, Parque OHiggins, 101.2 g/m
3
, La Paz,
92.2 g/m
3
, and Providencia, 89.8 g/m
3
. As seen for
PM
2.5
, the highest PM
10
concentrations were observed
at Parque OHiggins and the lowest at Las Condes. PM
10
average concentrations exceeded the Chilean and
United States annual PM
10
standard of 50 g/m
3
and
more than 10% of the daily concentrations were over
the EPA and Chilean and PM
10
standards of 150 and
120 g/m
3
, respectively. Also, almost 50% of the ob-
served concentrations exceeded the European Union air
quality daily PM
10
standard of 75 g/m
3
for the years
1999 and 2000. Note that this limit can be exceeded a
max of 35 days per year by European standards. Fur-
thermore, PM
10
concentrations exhibited a strong sea-
sonal pattern with levels considerably higher in the
April through September period. The site specic cold/
warm season PM
10
ratios ranged from 1.3 at Las Condes
to 1.9 at Parque OHiggins. Figure 3c shows the time
series of monthly PM
10
concentrations. As can be seen
in this gure, concentrations exhibit a similar seasonal
pattern as PM
2.5
, although less pronounced but still
decreasing each year.
With the exception of Las Condes, Santiago PM
10
concentrations were higher than concentrations mea-
sured in other Chilean cites that are also impacted by
industrial, trafc, soil dust, sea salt, and biomass burning
sources including Rancagua, 73.8 g/m
3
, Temuco,
67.7 g/m
3
,
and Val Paraiso,
21
77.5 g/m
3
PM
10
Figure 2. Distributions of daily concentrations during the warm
season (OctoberMarch) for (a) PM
2.5
, (b) PM
2.510
, and (c) PM
10
.
Dashed line on (a) shows the EPA standard of 65 g/m
3
for PM
2.5
and on (c) shows the EPA standard of 150 g/m
3
for PM
10
.
Figure 3. PM
2.5
(a), PM
2.510
(b), and PM
10
(c) monthly concen-
tration time series (all sites).
Koutrakis et al.
346 Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association Volume 55 March 2005
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concentrations in Santiago were generally higher than
those observed in downtown Athens, Greece, in a street
with a high density of trafc, 75.5 g/m
3
, but within the
same range of concentrations measured across Mexico
City in the wintertime (39108 g/m
3
).
21,24
However,
Santiago levels were two to three times higher than those
measured in major urban areas in the United States: Bos-
ton, MA (18 g/m
3
); Philadelphia, PA, Washington, DC,
and Nashville, TN (2526 g/m
3
).
2527
Note that the San-
tiago values represent an average across several years,
whereas for other cities averages are reported only for a
few months or up to 1 year.
PM
2.510
Concentrations. Average coarse particle levels for
the four sites are shown in Table 1. The arithmetic means
measured at Las Condes, Parque OHiggins, La Paz, and
Providencia were 35.8, 48.2, 45.5, and 40.9 g/m
3
, respec-
tively. As with PM
2.5
, the highest PM
2.510
concentrations
were observed at Parque OHiggins and the lowest at Las
Condes. There is currently no coarse particle standard, but
the EPA is in the process of developing one to replace the
existing PM
10
standard. Despite the lack of a standard,
coarse particle concentrations in Santiago were higher
than concentrations measured in many U.S. cities.
22,25
Also, as seen in Table 1, coarse particle concentrations did
not exhibit large seasonal variability with cold/warm sea-
son ratios that only varied from 0.91.1, except at Parque
OHiggins where the ratio was 1.3. Thus, PM
10
seasonal
patterns were mostly because of changes in PM
2.5
concen-
tration. Figure 3b shows the time series of monthly coarse
particle concentrations. Neither a monthly pattern nor a
yearly trend can be easily discerned from this gure. The
effect of these parameters on coarse particle concentra-
tions was further examined using the regression analysis
discussed below.
PM
2.5
/PM
10
Concentration ratios. The relative contribu-
tion of ne and coarse particles to PM
10
can be assessed
by looking at PM
2.5
/PM
10
ratios. These ratios exhibited
a clear seasonal pattern in Santiago, although little
difference was seen across sites (Table 1). During the
warm season, ratios were on average 0.4 and during the
cold period, when PM
2.5
particle concentrations are
higher, ratios were higher, ca. 0.6. These ndings are
consistent with results of annual mean PM
2.5
/PM
10
ra-
tios measured in a number of urban and semi-rural U.S.
areas where ratios varied between 0.3 and 0.7.
25
In the
United States, high ratios were typically seen in the
Northeast, during the summer season when sulfur com-
pounds represent a large fraction of PM
10
. In contrast,
low PM
2.5
/PM
10
ratios were typical of the semi-arid
Western United States, where a large fraction of PM
10
consists mainly of resuspended soil particles. In Athens,
Greece that has a climate like that of Santiago, Chile, a
similar range in ratios was seen (0.450.62) with higher
ratios in the winter.
Regression Model Results
Tables 2 and 3 present the results of the regression
analysis for PM
2.5
and PM
2.510
, respectively. Slopes and
Table 2. PM
2.5
model results.
Effect Estimate SE p value
CI
factor
Intercept 2.54 0.04 0.001 12.65
Las Condes 0.22 0.01 0.001 0.80
Parque OHiggins 0.05 0.01 0.001 1.05
La Paz 0.06 0.01 0.001 0.94
Providencia 0.00 1.00
Year: 1989 0.75 0.03 0.001 2.11
1990 0.64 0.03 0.001 1.90
1991 0.54 0.03 0.001 1.71
1992 0.55 0.03 0.001 1.73
1993 0.50 0.02 0.001 1.66
1994 0.38 0.02 0.001 1.47
1995 0.25 0.02 0.001 1.28
1996 0.20 0.03 0.001 1.23
1997 0.13 0.02 0.001 1.13
1998 0.24 0.03 0.001 1.27
1999 0.17 0.03 0.001 1.18
2000 0.00 1.00
January 0.11 0.03 0.001 1.11
February 0.24 0.03 0.001 1.27
March 0.46 0.03 0.001 1.59
April 0.68 0.03 0.001 1.98
May 1.03 0.03 0.001 2.81
June 1.03 0.03 0.001 2.81
July 1.13 0.03 0.001 3.09
August 0.92 0.03 0.001 2.51
September 0.51 0.03 0.001 1.66
October 0.23 0.03 0.001 1.26
November 0.05 0.03 0.065 1.05
December 0.00 1.00
Sunday 0.13 0.02 0.001 0.87
Monday 0.01 0.02 0.608 1.01
Tuesday 0.08 0.02 0.001 1.08
Wednesday 0.08 0.02 0.001 1.08
Thursday 0.10 0.02 0.001 1.11
Friday 0.08 0.02 0.001 1.09
Saturday 0.00 1.00
Wind speed (ws 0.8 m/s) 0.29 0.02 0.001 1.33
(0.8 ws 1.6 m/s) 0.13 0.02 0.001 1.14
(ws 1.6 m/s) 0.00 1.00
Relative humidity (rh 70%) 0.06 0.01 0.001 1.06
(rh 70%) 0.00 1.00
Temperature (t 20 C) 0.04 0.02 0.045 1.04
(t 20 C) 0.00 1.00
Koutrakis et al.
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corresponding standard errors are presented for models
examining the inuence of the categorical variables,
site, year, month, weekday, wind speed, temperature,
and RH. Note that a regression model was not devel-
oped for PM
10
, since investigating the effect of the
different parameters on its components, coarse and ne
particles, is sufcient.
Intercept. The intercepts for PM
2.5
and PM
2.510
were 12.6
and 19.5, respectively. This corresponds to an average
concentration in g/m
3
across sampling days for the ref-
erence variables; site Providencia, year 2000, month De-
cember, day Saturday, wind speed 1.6 m/s, rh 70%,
and temperature 20 C.
Site-Specic Differences. Differences among sites were as-
sessed using regression analysis, which allowed for con-
trol of time and meteorological impacts. The concentra-
tion trends shown by the regression impact factors follow
the same patterns as shown in Table 1. For PM
2.5
, Las
Condes had the lowest concentration impact factor of 0.8,
a 20% difference from the reference site. La Paz had a
lower concentration by 6%, whereas Parque OHiggins
had the largest concentration impact of 1.05. For PM
2.510
,
OHiggins and La Paz showed higher concentration im-
pacts compared with Providencia, 20 and 11%, respec-
tively. As with PM
2.5
particle concentrations, Las Condes
exhibited the lowest concentration impact, 0.80. Similar
concentration trends among sites are also shown in Table 1
for coarse particles.
Yearly Trend. One of the main objectives of this study was
to determine whether particle concentrations have de-
creased over the past 12 years as a result of source emis-
sion control strategies that have been implemented in
Santiago. As shown in Figure 3a and c, PM
2.5
and PM
10
levels have decreased over the study period. However, as
discussed above, it is not possible to discern a yearly
concentration trend for PM
2.510
by simply looking at
Figure 3b. In addition, a simple comparison of the yearly
means or medians may not be sufcient to examine con-
centration trends, and thus a more sophisticated statisti-
cal analysis was employed. Using regression modeling,
the variable year expresses the concentration trend while
controlling for other parameters. Concentrations depend
not only on emission sources, but also on meteorological
conditions that can vary year to year. Thus, the inclusion
of meteorological parameters in the model is necessary to
distinguish trends because of changes in source emissions
fromthose related to weather. This is especially important
for studying trends over a relatively short period of time,
where a fewatypical years can make it difcult to compare
annual mean concentrations.
The regression analysis results (Tables 2 and 3) show
that PM
2.5
and PM
2.510
concentrations signicantly
changed over time. In Figure 4a, yearly concentration
impact factors for both PM
2.5
and PM
2.510
are graphed.
Concentration impact factors for PM
2.5
decreased from
2.111.00 over the period 19892000 or 6.3% per year
(based on the average of the yearly percentage decreases),
but up to a 15% decrease in some years. For PM
2.510
,
Table 3. PM
2.510
model results.
Effect Estimate
Std
Error p value
CI
Factor
Intercept 2.97 0.04 0.001 19.49
Las Condes 0.23 0.01 0.001 0.80
Parque OHiggins 0.18 0.01 0.001 1.20
La Paz 0.11 0.01 0.001 1.11
Providencia 0.00 1.00
Year: 1989 0.04 0.03 0.172 0.96
1990 0.14 0.03 0.001 1.15
1991 0.29 0.03 0.001 1.33
1992 0.27 0.03 0.001 1.31
1993 0.39 0.03 0.001 1.48
1994 0.33 0.03 0.001 1.39
1995 0.29 0.03 0.001 1.34
1996 0.31 0.03 0.001 1.36
1997 0.21 0.03 0.001 1.24
1998 0.23 0.03 0.001 1.26
1999 0.14 0.03 0.001 1.15
2000 0.00 1.00
January 0.12 0.03 0.001 1.13
February 0.12 0.03 0.001 1.13
March 0.24 0.03 0.001 1.27
April 0.21 0.03 0.001 1.24
May 0.23 0.03 0.001 1.25
June 0.15 0.03 0.001 1.16
July 0.18 0.03 0.001 1.20
August 0.11 0.03 0.001 1.12
September 0.04 0.03 0.160 0.96
October 0.04 0.03 0.162 1.05
November 0.09 0.03 0.004 1.09
December 0.00 1.00
Sunday 0.20 0.02 0.001 0.82
Monday 0.08 0.02 0.001 1.09
Tuesday 0.15 0.02 0.001 1.16
Wednesday 0.12 0.02 0.001 1.13
Thursday 0.15 0.02 0.001 1.16
Friday 0.15 0.02 0.001 1.16
Saturday 0.00 1.00
Wind speed (ws 0.8 m/s) 0.26 0.02 0.001 1.30
(0.8 ws 1.6 m/s) 0.14 0.02 0.001 1.15
(ws 1.6 m/s) 0.00 1.00
Relative humidity (rh 70%) 0.21 0.01 0.001 1.24
(rh 70%) 0.00 1.00
Temperature (t 20 C) 0.05 0.02 0.008 0.95
(t 20 C) 0.00 1.00
Koutrakis et al.
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concentration impact factors increased from 0.96 in 1989
to 1.48 in 1993, 50%. For the subsequent seven years
(19942000), there was a decrease from 1.48 to 1.00, at an
average rate of 5% per year. Jorquera et al. (2000)
12
deter-
mined particle concentration trends on the same data for
the period 1989 through 1998. The results from that
study, showed trends for PM
10
and PM
2.5
that ranged
from 1.5 to 3.3% and 5 to 7% per annum across
different monitoring sites, respectively. The results for
PM
2.5
are in close agreement with our ndings. Their
analysis also showed a net increase in concentration for
the coarse fraction, whereas here we show that more
recently these concentrations have actually decreased.
Month Effect. As suggested by the regression analysis (Ta-
ble 2) and the seasonal trends depicted in Figure 4b, PM
2.5
monthly concentrations exhibit pronounced seasonal
variability. Concentration impact factors varied from
unity in December to 3.09 in July. These differences are
because of poor vertical mixing of air masses within the
Santiago basin encountered in the cold season. During
the winter season a coastal low-pressure systemfrequently
forms between two high-pressure systems, the semi-per-
manent Pacic high and the migratory high located in
central/north Argentina. Eruption of the mid-troposphere
creates a warm ridge above central Chile resulting in sta-
ble conditions that favor reduction of the mixing layer
and results in poor ventilation of the Santiago basin.
29
It is worth noting that a signicant month effect
was found even when controlling for the effect of wind
speed, temperature, and RH. This effect increased when
these three meteorological parameters were excluded
from the regression model, indicating that these varia-
bles do explain some of the variability in PM con-
centrations. However, because there is still a signicant
amount of unexplained variation in PM concentrations,
additional meteorological parameters may also be of im-
portance, including mixing height and synoptic air mass
movements.
Monthly PM
2.510
impact factors varied little by sea-
son with slightly higher values, 2025% higher, during
the period of March through July. These results agree with
the monthly PM
2.510
concentration patterns depicted in
Figure 3b. Poor air mass mixing favors the accumulation
of combustion-generated PM
2.5
that can remain airborne
for hours to days. In contrast, the long residence of air
masses within the basin does not increase coarse particle
concentrations signicantly. This is because of the rela-
tively shorter life time of coarse particles (minutes to a few
hours), which are effectively removed by sedimentation
and impaction.
Effects of Wind Speed, Temperature, and RH. The regression
analysis results suggest strong associations between parti-
cle concentrations and wind speed, and to a lesser extent,
temperature and RH (Tables 2 and 3). PM
2.5
and PM
2.510
concentrations were 30% and 15% higher for wind
speed values, ws 0.8 m/s and 0.8 ws 1.6 m/s, respec-
tively, compared with higher wind speeds (ws 1.6 m/s).
The effect of RH and temperature on both PM
2.5
and
PM
2.510
concentrations was signicant but negligible
(less than 6%), with the exception of low RH (rh 70%)
for coarse particle concentrations (26%) possibly because
of the effect of dryness on particle generation.
As previously reported air pollutant concentrations
are considerably higher during the cold season because of
the frequent stagnation of air masses in the Santiago
basin.
4
Particulate levels decreased only during strong
wind events that managed to push the air pollution west
of Santiago or east above the Andes. Similar relation-
ships between pollutant concentrations and weather
Figure 4. (A) PM
2.5
and PM
2.510
yearly concentration impact
factors; (B) PM
2.5
and PM
2.510
monthly concentration impact fac-
tors; (C) PM
2.5
and PM
2.510
weekday concentration impact factors.
Koutrakis et al.
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conditions in Santiago have been reported previously us-
ing more comprehensive weather measurements such as
wind trajectory analysis and boundary layer height.
29
Studies have also shown an inverse relationship between
wind speed and concentrations of locally emitted pollut-
ants. PM
2.5
concentrations measured near a road with
heavy trafc in Paris, for example, were inversely propor-
tional to wind speed.
30
Also, PM
10
concentrations mea-
sured in downtown Athens decreased with higher wind
speeds.
21
Cheng and Lam (1998)
31
investigated the im-
pact of wind on total suspended particulates concentra-
tions in Hong Kong and found a similar relationship
between concentrations and wind speed.
Weekday Effect. As shown in Tables 2 and 3 and Figure 4c
weekday is an important determinant for both PM
2.5
and
PM
2.510
concentrations. The PM
2.510
concentration im-
pact factors for Monday through Friday were 916%
higher than the reference (Saturday). The concentration
factor for Sunday was 18% lower than Saturday. A less
pronounced weekday effect was found for PM
2.5
possibly
because of longer lifetimes within the basin compared
with PM
2.510
. PM
2.5
concentration impact factors were
0.87, 1.01, 1.08, 1.08, 1.11, 1.09, and 1.00 for Sunday
through Saturday, respectively. These results are expected
because trafc and other human particle-generating activ-
ities are reduced on weekends and to a greater extent on
Sundays. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that on Mon-
days particle levels are lower compared with the rest of
the workdays. Although Monday is a working day, it
appears that a lagged effect exists and pollution levels
accumulate over the course of several days.
CONCLUSIONS
Particle concentration levels measured at all four sites in
the Santiago Metropolitan region exceeded the corre-
sponding Chilean, United States, and European Union air
quality standards. Fine and coarse particle levels were the
highest at Parque OHiggins, which is impacted by vehic-
ular emissions and small industrial sources. The lowest
levels were observed at the Las Condes site that is the least
impacted by downtown trafc. PM
2.5
particle concentra-
tions exhibited strong seasonal patterns because of the
distinct differences in climatologic conditions during the
cold (April through September) and warm (October
through March) seasons. Mean PM
2.5
concentration levels
during the cold season were approximately two times
higher than those observed during the warm season. In
contrast to PM
2.5
, similar coarse particle levels were ob-
served in both the warm and cold season. Finally, model
results showed that particle levels are lower on Sundays
and to a lesser extent Saturdays and Mondays. This is
because of the fact that a large fraction of particles are
associated with trafc emissions.
Furthermore, the results of the regression analyses
suggested that for PM
2.5
, and to a lesser extent PM
2.510
,
wind speed is an important determinant of concentra-
tions. Most of the highest particle levels occur during low
wind speed events when air masses stagnate for several
days over the metropolitan region and air pollution emis-
sions concentrate in the valley. Levels decrease when
wind velocity increases to move pollution west or east
above the Andes.
Concentration trends were investigated using regres-
sion models, while controlling for the effect of site, week-
day, month, wind speed, temperature, and RH on particle
concentrations. PM
2.5
concentrations decreased signi-
cantly, 52% over the 12-year period, 19892000.
PM
2.510
concentrations initially increased by 50% over
the rst 5 years and then decreased by a similar percent-
age over the following 7 years. Therefore, the pollution
reduction programs that included removal of old buses,
the introduction of vehicles with catalytic converters,
paving and cleaning streets, among others, implemented
by CONAMA, have been effective in reducing ne particle
levels within the Santiago Metropolitan region. Despite
these concentration decreases, particle levels still exceed
both national and international standards, justifying con-
tinuing efforts to improve air quality.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The lter samples were collected by the Ministry of Health
(SESMA). The data analysis was supported by the Comis-
sion Nacional del Medio Ambiente (CONAMA). The au-
thors thank Yolanda Silva Cerna and Ignacio Olaeta Un-
dabarrena for their assistance in the collection and
analysis of lter samples.
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About the Authors
Petros Koutrakis, Ph.D., is Professor of Environmental Sci-
ences in the Department of Environmental Health at the
Harvard School of Public Health. He is also the Head of the
Exposure, Epidemiology, and Risk Program and the Direc-
tor of the EPA/Harvard University Center for Ambient Par-
ticle Health Effects. Sonja Sax, Sc.D., and Jeremy Sarnat,
Sc.D., are Research Fellows in the Department of Environ-
mental Health at the Harvard School of Public Health. Brent
Coull, Ph.D., is Assistant Professor of Biostatistics at the
Harvard School of Public Health in the Department of Bio-
statistics. Philip Demokritou is Assistant Professor of Aero-
sol Physics in the Department of Environmental Health at
the Harvard School of Public Health. Pedro Oyola, Ph.D., is
a visiting professor at the University of Sa o Paulo, Brazil in
the Faculty of Public Health. He is also working as re-
searcher at the Technical University Federico Santa Mara,
Valparaso, Chile. Javier Garcia is a Project Engineer at the
Comisio n National del Medio Ambiente in Santiago, Chile.
Ernesto Gramsch is associate professor in the Department
of Physics at the University of Santiago, Chile. Address
correspondence to: Dr. Sonja Sax, Harvard School of Pub-
lic Health, Department of Environmental Health, Landmark
Center 4
th
Floor West, 401 Park Drive, Boston, MA 02115;
phone: 1-617-384-8827; fax: 1-617-384-8859; e-mail:
ssax@hsph.harvard.edu.
Koutrakis et al.
Volume 55 March 2005 Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 351
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