THE WORLD IN 2010

103

The world in figures: Countries

Europe Italy 104 Turkey 106 Pakistan 107 Latin America Middle East Morocco 111
Austria 103 Latvia 104 Ukraine 106 Philippines 107 Argentina 109 and Africa Nigeria 111
Belgium 103 Lithuania 105 United Kingdom 106 Singapore 107 Bolivia 109 Algeria 110 Saudi Arabia 111
Bulgaria 103 Netherlands 105 South Korea 107 Brazil 109 Angola 110 South Africa 111
Croatia 103 Norway 105 Asia Sri Lanka 108 Chile 109 Cameroon 110 Tanzania 111
Czech Republic 103 Poland 105 Australia 106 Taiwan 108 Colombia 109 Egypt 110 United Arab Emirates 111
Denmark 104 Portugal 105 China 106 Thailand 108 Cuba 109 Ethiopia 110 Zimbabwe 111
Estonia 104 Romania 105 Hong Kong 106 Uzbekistan 108 Ecuador 109 Iran 110
Finland 104 Russia 105 India 106 Vietnam 108 Paraguay 109 Iraq 110
France 104 Slovakia 105 Indonesia 107 Peru 109 Israel 110
Germany 104 Slovenia 105 Japan 107 North America Uruguay 109 Jordan 110 For an interactive version
Greece 104 Spain 106 Kazakhstan 107 Canada 108 Venezuela 109 Kenya 110 of these pages, go to:
Hungary 104 Sweden 106 Malaysia 107 Mexico 108 Lebanon 111 www.economist.com/
Ireland 104 Switzerland 106 New Zealand 107 United States 108 Libya 111 theworldin

Boiko Borisov, the prime minister, and

TOP GRowers
Qatar’s economy will grow by nearly
a quarter in 2010 as new gas projects
come on stream, but no other country
will reach double figures. As the global
economy emerges from recession, most
of the leading performers in 2010 will
be minor emerging markets, especially
aid-driven countries in sub-Saharan
Africa. But energy production, as in the
Budget busters
Euro-zone and UK budget balances, % of GDP 2005 2010 (forecast) EU ceiling his Citizens for European Development
3 of Bulgaria party will build on their July
2009 election victory by cracking down
0 on organised crime and corruption.
The government is likely to survive its
-3 minority position in parliament, and if a
successful attempt to topple it were to
-6 force fresh elections, it might well add
seats. The economy will grow slowly.
-9
To watch: Help! Bulgaria’s heavy external-
­debt load and large current-account

NETHERLANDS
past, also tells part of the story: Congo -12 LUXEMBOURG
PORTUGAL

deficit may force the government to join

GERMANY

SLOVENIA
SLOVAKIA
(Brazzaville) will be boosted by rising
BELGIUM

FINLAND
IRELAND

AUSTRIA

CYPRUS
FRANCE
GREECE

MALTA
SPAIN

-15 the queue at the IMF’s bail-out window.

ITALY

oil output, and hydrocarbons production

UK

helps to place Turkmenistan among the

top dozen.
China performs best among large
economies as stimulus spending fills the
hole left by the slump in the developed
world. India, at ninth, regains some of
its pre-crisis momentum as its services
sector revives. Post-conflict recovery
boosts Iraq to tenth place. Madagascar,
at 11th, will enjoy a peace dividend as
foreign grants flow in.
Rank Country GDP growth,%
1 Qatar 24.5
2 China 8.6
3 Congo (Brazzaville) 8.0
4 Turkmenistan 8.0
5 Ethiopia 7.0
5 Uzbekistan 7.0
7 Djibouti 6.5
8 Sri Lanka 6.3
9 India 6.3
10 Iraq 6.2
11 Madagascar 6.2
12 Vietnam 6.0
2010 forecasts unless otherwise indicated.
Inflation: year-on-year annual average.
Dollar GDPs calculated using 2010 forecasts for dollar
exchange rates (GDP at PPP, or purchasing-power parity,
shown in brackets). All figures simplified by rounding.
EUROPE Croatia
Main event: UK Conservatives: back from the wilderness Euro-zone growth: 0.6% GDP growth: 0.3%
GDP: $64bn (PPP: $78bn)
EU-27 growth: 0.6% Eastern and central Europe: 1.0% Russia and CIS: 2.3% Inflation: 2.6%
Population: 4.5m
Austria may even bring down the coalition GDP per head: $14,300 (PPP: $17,400)
GDP growth: 0.8% government before its official term The coalition government is adjusting to
GDP: $398bn (PPP: $322bn) ends in 2011. The economy will grow by new leadership after the resignation of
Inflation: 0.8% 0.8%, which will feel only marginally the prime minister, Ivo Sanader, in 2009.
Population: 8.4m less painful than the contraction of 2009 Jadranka Kosor, his replacement, lacks
GDP per head: $47,310 (PPP: $38,260) as unemployment continues to rise and his credentials, and policymaking may
The grand coalition of the Social living standards stagnate. drift. The goal of EU membership will
give cohesion to the ruling coalition, but
Democratic Party and the Austrian
People’s Party is working well, allowing Bulgaria disagreements will flare over such issues
the government to focus on the weak as financial support for farmers. Rising
GDP growth: 1.0%
economy. Budget policy will concentrate GDP: $50bn (PPP: $92bn)
unemployment and tight credit will hold
on boosting consumer spending, Inflation: 2.3% growth to a mere 0.3%.
pumping money into R&D, and shoring Population: 7.4m
up the banks. Austria will be flagged for GDP per head: $6,720 (PPP: $12,370)
Czech Republic
breaching Europe’s fiscal-deficit ceiling,
but with so many others in the same Off balance GDP growth: 0.9%
Current-account gap, % of GDP GDP: $194bn (PPP: $260bn)
position it will be let off with a warning. Inflation: % of GDP 1.4%
Bulgaria Euro zone
5
Population: 10.2m
Belgium 0
GDP perConsumer
head: prices $19,050 (PPP: $25,480)
GDP growth: 0.8% The Civic Democratic Party (ODS) is
GDP: $455bn (PPP: $386bn) marginally better
Budget balanceplaced to lead the
Inflation: 0.0% -5
government after elections to be held by
Population: 10.6m -10
June 2010 than its main rival, the Czech
GDP per head: $42,840 (PPP: $36,300)
-15
Social Democratic Party,
Current-account balancewhich was
An impasse between Flemish and blackened after calling a no-confidence
French-speaking parties over the vote that plunged the country into
-20
devolution of federal power to regional turmoil while it held the rotating
authorities will divert political attention -25 EU presidency. The long-held aim of
from the vital task of nursing the adopting the euro would suffer under a
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Source:
london@eiu.com economy through the downturn, and government led by the Eurosceptic ODS.
104 Countries The world in figures THE WORLD IN 2010
To watch: Internal combustion. The
Czech Republic will introduce its own
Finland
car-scrappage scheme as those of its GDP growth: 0.8%
GDP: $242bn (PPP: $182bn)
main trading partners are parked. All will
Inflation: 0.9%
run out by the end of the year, and car Population: 5.4m
sales will idle. GDP per head: $45,320 (PPP: $34,070)
The four-party coalition government
Denmark under the prime minister, Matti
GDP growth: 0.5% Vanhanen, will concentrate on steering
GDP: $318bn (PPP: $196bn) the economy out of recession, when not
Inflation: 1.5% distracted by internal disagreements.
Population: 5.5m
With exports on hold pending a recovery
GDP per head: $57,470 (PPP: $35,350)
in global trade, fiscal policy will do most
The prime minister, Lars Lokke of the work, and the budget deficit will
Rasmussen, does not need to call break decisively through the EU ceiling
elections until late 2011, but will see after posting enviable surpluses as
support for his minority government recently as 2008. Even so, recovery will
leak steadily as the economy struggles. come too late in the year to make Finns
His immediate priority will be to feel good about the economy.
support the troubled banks with state
guarantees and boost government
investment to prop up consumer and France
business spending. The delayed impact GDP growth: 0.9%
of lower interest rates and further tax GDP: $2,721bn (PPP: $2,159bn)
cuts should also help. Even so, Denmark, Inflation: 0.9%
Population: 62.9m
which is experiencing one of the longest
GDP per head: $43,250 (PPP: $34,310)
recessions of any European country, will
grow by only 0.5% in 2010. President Nicolas Sarkozy will spend
freely to counteract the effects of the
To watch: Yes, please. The government
recession, supporting employment
may hold a referendum on adopting the
and bringing forward planned public-
euro, but only if the chances of a “yes”
investment projects. His largesse will
vote increase substantially.
push the budget deficit to nearly 10%
of GDP; this will make the country’s
Estonia past willingness to flout the EU’s 3%
GDP growth: -3.0% fiscal ceiling look trifling. Structural
GDP: $18bn (PPP: $23bn) reforms, central to Mr Sarkozy’s election
Inflation: 0.2% campaign, will be put back. All this will
Population: 1.3m restore stability to the economy, but
GDP per head: $13,810 (PPP: $17,230) without any dynamism.
The Baltic states are the tail-enders in To watch: Working late. A review of
the global recession. Estonia’s economy the state pension system will kick off
will shrink by 3% in 2010 after a in 2010. The government has been
punishing 13% collapse in 2009. As softening up the public to expect an
elsewhere, economic upheaval has
increase in the retirement age.
brought out the anti-incumbent vote,
with the government parties taking
Germany
a pasting in the 2009 elections to the
European Parliament. This bodes ill for GDP growth: 0.5%
the prime minister, Andrus Ansip, and GDP: $3,196bn (PPP: $2,807bn)
his minority government, and early Inflation: 0.7%
elections are on the cards. Population: 83.0m
GDP per head: $38,520 (PPP: $33,840)
The Christian Democratic Union/Christian
Every cloud…
Social Union (CDU/CSU) retained its
Inflation, % change year-on-year
dominant position in government in
Current-account gap, % of GDP
15
GDP growth, % change year-on-year September 2009 elections, bucking
the anti-incumbency trend in other
10 advanced countries. Election victory
not only secured another term for
5 recession throughout 2010 and for
Chancellor Angela Merkel but allowed
the CDU to replace its coalition partner,
0 will peak at around 16% and the fiscal
the Social Democratic Party, with the
-5
Free Democratic Party, which is smaller
-10 and fits better with the CDU’s liberal
outlook. Germany has been battered by
-15
the global downturn; economic growth
-20 will resume in 2010, but will be weak as
government pump-priming in the labour
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2010
and car markets ends.
Greece Undemanding
Real domestic demand, �bn
GDP growth: 0.5%
GDP: $372bn (PPP: $334bn) 170
Inflation: 0.8%
160
Population: 11.0m
GDP per head: $33,860 (PPP: $30,390) 150
The main challenge for the prime
minister, George Papandreou, will be 140
delivering on the expansive promises 130
made during his successful election
campaign in 2009. The Socialist leader 120
trounced the incumbent conservatives
by condemning their fiscal 110
programme—which included a public-
pay and hiring freeze—as unnecessarily
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2010
austere. If he follows through on a
manifesto of higher public wages, shortfall. There is an outside chance it
subsidised employment programmes could come up short, tipping the country
and more spending on education, a into default.
fiscal deficit that is already alarming
could soon become critical.
Italy
GDP growth: 0.4%
Hungary GDP: $2,139bn (PPP: $1,721bn)
Inflation: 0.9%
GDP growth: -1.0%
GDP: $127bn (PPP: $182bn) Population: 58.1m
GDP per head: $36,820 (PPP: $29,630)
Inflation: 4.2%
Population: 9.9mThe government of the prime minister,
GDP per head: $12,850 (PPP: $18,380)
Silvio Berlusconi, has solid majorities
The austerity demanded by the IMF and in both houses of parliament and need
the EU in return for financial support not call elections until 2013. But the
will hold the budget gap steady at just volatility of Italy’s political scene—
under 4% of GDP, but at the cost of arising not least from the controversial
economic growth; the economy will Mr Berlusconi himself—means the
shrink for a second year, though at a government’s survival is never assured.
much slower pace than the 7% recorded Tight fiscal policies leave little room
in 2009. The minority government, led for economic stimulus, and a lack of
by the Hungarian Socialist Party, is appetite for structural reforms means
marking time, and the opposition Fidesz- the economy will be poorly placed to
Hungarian Civic Union is well positioned ride a global upturn. Italy’s economic
to win the April parliamentary election, position within Europe will continue to
though perhaps not by a sufficient weaken.
margin to govern alone. To watch: Cover story. The Jesus-linked
To watch: Just the Jobbik. Economic and shroud of Turin will be exhibited in
political distress has stoked support for the city’s cathedral in April and May.
Miraculous relic or medieval forgery, the
extreme ideas. The rise of the far-right,
stridently nationalist Jobbik party is a linen fragment will draw the religious
and curious alike.
symptom, and could propel the group
into parliament at the next election.
Latvia
Ireland GDP growth: -4.0%
GDP: $26bn (PPP: $31bn)
GDP growth: -2.5% Inflation: -1.7%
GDP: $218bn (PPP: $174bn)
Population: 2.2m
Inflation: 0.4%
GDP per head: $11,560 (PPP: $13,810)
Population: 4.2m
GDP per head: $52,390 (PPP: $41,780) Hardest hit of all European nations by
the global slump, Latvia’s economy will
Hit harder than most by the global
shrink by a further 4% in 2010 after
crisis, the economy will remain in
2009’s horrific 17% contraction and a
4.6% decline in 2008. The five-party
much of the year after. Unemployment
coalition government—led by the
prime minister, Valdis Dombrovskis, and
deficit is firmly into double figures. The
installed in March 2009 after a political
government, a coalition led by Fianna
crisis—will not last. The president,
Fail, will limp on, but may not make it to
Valdis Zatlers, will try to avoid calling
the official end of its term in 2012.
elections ahead of the October 2010
To watch: Pay off. Ireland will be scheduled date, but may have little
tapping the same capital markets as choice if a new coalition government
richer, stronger nations to fund its fiscal cannot be negotiated.
 THE WORLD IN 2010 The world in figures Countries 105

To watch: Mean streets. The economic

2010 in person
Norway Britain’s Conservative Party leader, David Cameron,
slump brought rioters onto Riga’s streets
in early 2009, and social discontent will GDP growth: 1.4% may be shooting into an open goal in the general
remain a concern throughout 2010. GDP: $441bn (PPP: $276bn) election; the Labour Party incumbents are in retreat
Inflation: 1.7% and Gordon Brown, the prime minister, is reviled by
Population: 4.9m angry voters. Few, though, would envy Mr Cameron
Lithuania GDP per head: $90,630 (PPP: $56,680) the task that awaits him. Britain, laboratory of the
GDP growth: -4.5% The Labour-party led coalition won a unsavoury practices that gave rise to the credit
GDP: $39bn (PPP: $53bn) narrow victory in the September 2009 crunch, has been battered by the ensuing economic
Inflation: 2.1% election, although differences among upheaval. Its financial centre is shrunken and
Population: 3.3m the partners over Norway’s oil and gas weak, its fiscal accounts are in tatters, the stimulus
GDP per head: $11,690 (PPP: $15,830) propping up its economy is unsustainable and its place in the world is on the slide.
resources will continue. Recession, in
Another story of Baltic boom-to-bust. any case less pronounced than in most Once he has dealt with these inconveniences, Mr Cameron—whose party has been
The economy will continue to wilt, of Europe thanks to a cushion of oil out of power since an emphatic election defeat in 1997—will face the small matter
contracting by 4.5% in 2010 after wealth, will turn to modest recovery, and of rising popular discontent at unavoidable spending cuts, likely to be channelled
shrinking by 15% in 2009. The budget Norway is likely to avoid the sharp rise in via resurgent unions. Good luck, Dave.
deficit will swell to 6.5% of GDP, twice unemployment experienced elsewhere.
the ceiling under Maastricht rules; hopes
for adopting the euro by 2012 will fade. Romania Slovakia
Poland
The government coalition, led by the GDP growth: 1.0% GDP growth: 1.5%
centre-right Homeland Union-Lithuanian GDP growth: 1.9% GDP: $186bn (PPP: $252bn) GDP: $89bn (PPP: $117bn)
GDP: $476bn (PPP: $707bn) Inflation: 3.3% Inflation: 2.3%
Christian Democrats, needs support
Inflation: 2.8% Population: 21.4m Population: 5.5m
from populist parties and is unlikely Population: 38.1m GDP per head: $8,680 (PPP: $11,760) GDP per head: $16,310 (PPP: $21,280)
to complete its term, which ends in GDP per head: $12,490 (PPP: $18,550)
2012. Social discontent amid prolonged The year will start with the formation The prime minister, Robert Fico, and his
recession will add to political instability. Tensions between the centre-right prime of a new government, but its make-up centre-left Smer-SD party will perform
minister, Donald Tusk, and the centre- will depend on the presidential election well in the June election, but will still
Longer, deeper left president, Lech Kaczynski, will at the end of 2009. If Traian Basescu is need the support of coalition partners.
GDP growth, % overshadow Polish politics at least until re-elected, he may promote an alliance The likely presence of the far-right
Euro zone October, when presidential elections between the National Liberal Party Slovak National Party in government and
Lithuania
15 may allow Mr Tusk to seize the top job. (NLP) and the Social Democratic Party, the rise of similarly nationalist forces
Alternatively, the government may fall a partner in a coalition that collapsed in Hungary will keep bilateral relations
10 if the ruling Civic Platform’s coalition in September 2009. If he loses, the tense—particularly in light of recent
partner, the Polish Peasants’ Party, NLP is more likely to pair up with the moves seen as inimical to the interests
5
pushes its special-interest agenda too Democratic Liberal Party—the other of Slovakia’s large ethnic Hungarian
0
hard—though fragile voter support may member of the doomed coalition. minority. Slovakia’s recession has been
dissuade it from rocking the boat. The deep, but will end in 2010.
-5 economy, which avoided recession, will To watch: Crowd control. This may
be helped by rising investment. become a year of protest as an IMF-
-10 backed austerity programme raises Slovenia
To watch: Poles depart. Emigration, the union ire. GDP growth: 1.0%
-15 end of a baby boom and a rise in the GDP: $51bn (PPP: $57bn)
average age for starting a family mean
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2010

Inflation: 1.7%
the working-age population will enter Russia Population: 2.0m
Netherlands a slow decline from 2010, constraining GDP growth: 2.5% GDP per head: $25,510 (PPP: $28,210)
economic-growth potential. GDP: $1,414bn (PPP: $2,161bn)
GDP growth: 0.4% Jobseekers
Inflation: 9.4%
GDP: $814bn (PPP: $663bn) Unemployment, %
Population: 141.0m
Inflation: 0.2% Portugal GDP per head: $10,030 (PPP: $15,330) 13
Population: 16.5m GDP growth: 0.1%
GDP per head: $49,250 (PPP: $40,080) GDP: $224bn (PPP: $234bn) The combined shocks of sharply lower oil 12
Periodic near-crises will make for Inflation: 0.3% prices and falling international demand
strained relations between the main Population: 10.7m meant Russia had a worse time of it than 11
GDP per head: $21,000 (PPP: $21,930) most during the global slump. Even so,
partners in the ruling coalition, the
Christian Democratic Appeal and the The incumbent Socialist Party (PS) will an oil rally and stronger global demand 10

Labour Party. But the government will remain the largest party in parliament will bring a respectable rebound in 2010.
9
hold together until the 2011 election. after the election in September 2009, The delayed impact of the government’s
Public spending, especially to help the but it has lost the absolute majority that large stimulus package and lower 8
unemployed, will swell the budget gap, it secured at the 2005 election. The PS interest rates will also support a return
but the economy will barely grow in will serve as a minority government, so to growth. Russians are disgruntled 7
2010. The state, already in control of two 2010 may see a shaky start as it tries to because of belt-tightening, but have not
major banks, may be forced to intervene find its footing. The PS is expected to turned on their leaders, and the power
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2011

again in support of the domestic form ad hoc parliamentary coalitions in tandem of President Dmitry Medvedev
financial system if the global economic order to pass legislation, looking to the and Vladimir Putin, the prime minister,
recession continues to bite. right or the left depending on the issue will remain firmly in place. There is persistent sniping between the
To watch: Desert storm. A threatened at hand. This strategy is likely to lead to To watch: Kremlin comeback. parties of the centre-left ruling coalition,
parliamentary inquiry into the Dutch increased political instability, especially Much-expected tensions between though the bad blood is manageable and
government’s support for the US-led compared with the PS’s previous term Mr Medvedev and Mr Putin have not the government looks stable. Slovenia
invasion of Iraq could damage the prime in office. materialised, but speculation over has broadly pro-market business policies,
minister, Jan Peter Balkenende, bringing To watch: Talent teaser. A lower tax rate Mr Putin’s plans for a return to the but the next round of structural reforms
an election ahead of the scheduled date for highly qualified workers comes into presidency in 2012 will intensify in the will remain on hold as the government
in May 2011. force on January 1st. coming year. struggles to revive the economy.
106 Countries The world in figures THE WORLD IN 2010
Spain
GDP growth: -0.8%
GDP: $1,435bn (PPP: $1,394bn)
Inflation: 0.7%
Population: 45.9m
GDP per head: $31,250 (PPP: $30,360)
Seven seats short of a majority, the
centre-left government of the prime
minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero,
could find itself in trouble if regional
parties withdraw their informal support.
However, disarray in the main opposition
Popular Party lowers the odds. A home-
grown property bubble meant Spain was
hit early and hard by the credit crunch;
consumer confidence will remain fragile,
and the housing market, although
stabilising, will remain weak. Growth
will not return until late in the year at
the earliest, and unemployment and the
budget deficit will soar.
To watch: AVE Maria. Overheated
Madrileños will be able to hit the beach
at Alicante in record time when the
high-speed AVE train link opens.
Sweden
GDP growth: 1.3%
GDP: $435bn (PPP: $337bn)
Inflation: 1.5%
Population: 9.3m
GDP per head: $46,730 (PPP: $36,160)
The centre-right coalition government
has retained public support despite
the economic crisis, but the opposition
block is still searching for ways to hold
together and present a coherent front.
The September election is too close
to call, but if a programme of tax cuts
and budget spending brings recovery
from the 2009 recession into sight, the
coalition will start as the favourite.
To watch: Baltic backwash. Two of
Sweden’s four major banks are heavily
exposed to the benighted Baltic
economies and may need bailing out if
those countries are forced to devalue.
Switzerland
GDP growth: 0.7%
GDP: $473bn (PPP: $318bn)
Inflation: 0.4%
Population: 7.8m
GDP per head: $60,690 (PPP: $40,780)
The Swiss People’s Party (SVP), the
country’s largest, is back inside the
government tent after spending a
year in opposition in 2008. That means
Switzerland’s consensus-based way
of governing will be better equipped
to ride out the economic downturn
and engineer changes in the financial
system, including implementing
rules weakening the secrecy laws
synonymous with Swiss banking.
However, the SVP will continue to
oppose its coalition partners’ overtures
to the EU.
Turkey
GDP growth: 3.0%
GDP: $687bn (PPP: $913bn)
Inflation: 7.0%
Population: 73.3m
GDP per head: $9,370 (PPP: $12,450)
The tussle between the moderately
Islamist Justice and Development party
government and the staunchly secularist
political and military establishment
will continue to test the country’s
institutions. The economy will be equally
testing in 2010, and a fresh crisis,
including the spectre of debt default,
will threaten if the government fails
to shore up confidence among foreign
investors by reaching a new deal with
the IMF. Peace talks over Cyprus, a big
factor in Turkey’s EU membership bid,
will proceed, but bring no deal.
To watch: Cultural earnings. Tourism
receipts will be boosted by Istanbul’s
designation as a European capital of
culture, along with Essen in Germany
and Pécs in Hungary.
UkrainE
GDP growth: 1.0%
GDP: $122bn (PPP: $291bn)
Inflation: 12.2%
Population: 45.5m
GDP per head: $2,670 (PPP: $6,390)
The year will kick off with a presidential
election, marking the next round in the
battle for control among the country’s
post-Soviet factions. Viktor Yanukovich
of the opposition Party of Regions,
who opposed the revolution, is likely to
come out ahead of the prime minister,
Yulia Tymoshenko, its champion, and
a large field of also-rans. Previously,
benign economic conditions meant
dysfunctional politics bore little cost,
but in the wake of a contraction likely
to have approached 17% in 2009 people
will be less forgiving and could show
their displeasure on the streets.
United Kingdom
GDP growth: 0.6%
GDP: $2,255bn (PPP: $2,160bn)
Inflation: 2.3%
Population: 62.2m
GDP per head: $36,250 (PPP: $34,730)
Economic growth will resume, but
damage done by the global economic
crisis—to the country’s fiscal position,
to the reputation of London as a
financial centre and to the standing
of the governing Labour Party—will
take a generation to repair. The political
cost will be evident in a probable May
election, when voters will vent their
fury on politicians as a class, but mainly
on Labour. Though there is hardly a
groundswell of enthusiasm for the
opposition Conservative Party, it will win
in the election and achieve an overall
parliamentary majority.
Coming up…
GDP per head (PPP) Asia (excluding Japan) OECD
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
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2010
ASIA
Main event: China becomes the world’s second-largest economy
Asia growth (excluding Japan): 5.5% ASEAN growth: 3.7%
that cautious economists—worried
AUSTRALIA about overheating—have been
GDP growth: 1.7% recommending for years. Even so,
GDP: $1,125bn (PPP: $839bn) the economic stimulus is producing
Inflation: 2.8%
Population: 21.5m
industrial overcapacity and asset-price
GDP per head: $52,290 (PPP: $39,020) bubbles in stocks and property. A surge
in bank lending, accompanied by weak
In any other year, opposition attacks risk assessment, will bring a worrying
on the government’s economic rise in bad loans.
management might have hit home. But
Australia was among the select few that
avoided recession in 2009, thanks in HONG KONG
part to successful fiscal and monetary GDP growth: 2.8%
GDP: $218bn (PPP: $306bn)
policies, so the thrusts will cause only
flesh wounds. Kevin Rudd, who heads the Inflation: 1.0%
Population: 7.1m
Labor Party government, is here for the
GDP per head: $30,720 (PPP: $43,180)
duration. Stronger business investment
and rising exports to China will help the While mainland China forges ahead,
economy to grow faster in 2010, though this former British outpost will
at a less-than-full-blooded 1.7%. struggle with the economic ills of the
developed world, emerging from the
2009 recession to only tepid growth.
CHINA The mainland’s strong performance will
GDP growth: 8.6% help, but the world trade in goods on
GDP: $5,588bn (PPP: $9,845bn) which Hong Kong’s economy depends
Inflation: 2.4%
will remain depressed.
Population: 1,339.2m
GDP per head: $4,170 (PPP: $7,350) To watch: Ballotproof. The pro-
After selling to consumption-crazed democracy protests held every year
Americans and Europeans during the could be particularly loud in 2010.
boom, China is using the proceeds The souring economy has undermined
support for the chief executive, Donald
to spend its way through the bust.
Indeed, thanks to the global recession, Tsang, and the mainland-dominated
system behind him.
growth will slow to the moderate rate
Share croppers INDIA
Shanghai composite index, Dec 19th 1990=100
GDP growth: 6.3%
8,000 GDP: $1,468bn (PPP: $3,876bn)
Inflation: 8.6%
7,000 Population: 1,184.1m
GDP per head: $1,240 (PPP: $3,270)
6,000
A resilient domestic market and low
5,000 reliance on exports have allowed India
to grow through the global downturn,
4,000
thanks in part to decisive fiscal stimulus
3,000
and growth in credit. The downside
is that the fiscal deficit—which has
2,000 been a worry for years—is widening
sharply. Indebtedness will also grow, and
2007 2008 2009
India’s home-grown way of measuring
non-performing loans will only disguise
 THE WORLD IN 2010 The world in figures Countries 107

a growing problem. The Congress party-

2010 in person
led coalition government will focus on Emerging from the sometimes bizarre rule of PHILIPPINES
short-term economic growth, to the Saparmurat “Turkmenbashi” Niyazov, Turkmenistan GDP growth: 3.7%
detriment of structural reform. needed a leader of character. Gurbanguly GDP: $166bn (PPP: $344bn)
Berdymukhammedov has been up to the task, Inflation: 3.8%
To watch: Track records. The sweeping aside the paraphernalia of his predecessor’s Population: 99.9m
Commonwealth Games, contested by 71 personality cult and throwing open the country’s GDP per head: $1,660 (PPP: $3,440)
countries that mostly share a common shutters. In foreign policy he has broken free of
past as part of the British Empire, will Russia’s grip and started to build relationships with In the post
Workers’ remittances, $bn
take place in India for the first time, the West and China, which have been welcomed. He
security permitting. quickly showed a new leadership style at home after 18

coming to power in 1997—paying overdue public-sector salaries, for example, 16

and exhorting citizens not to celebrate his birthday. With access to Caspian gas
INDONESIA reserves likely to matter a lot in 2010, the coming year could see
14

GDP growth: 4.5% 12

Mr Berdymukhammedov make his mark on the international stage too.
GDP: $594bn (PPP: $993bn) 10
Inflation: 5.1%
Population: 243.0m 8
GDP per head: $2,440 (PPP: $4,090) prime minister, Yukio Hatoyama, must To watch: Legal defence. Supporters 6
As in India, a strong domestic market contend with the DPJ’s power behind the of opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, 4
and low trade dependency are helping throne, Ichiro Ozawa. The economy will who is facing a second trial on sodomy
improve, but hesitant US and European charges, could take to the streets if he is 2
the country weather the global slump,
supporting growth rates that advanced consumers will limit the export recovery convicted. 0

economies can only envy. President Japan needs to sustain a turnaround.
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono heads a To watch: Sino sign-up. The new
disparate coalition, but has a strong government will align foreign relations
mandate and will remain in power. more closely with China, weakening the
Difficult economic conditions will hold bond with the US that was an article of
up progress on long-promised reforms faith for the LDP.
such as labour-market liberalisation.
KAZAKHSTAN
Still shopping
Domestic demand, $bn GDP growth: 2.2%
GDP: $116bn (PPP: $183bn)
600
Inflation: 6.7%
Population: 16.2m
500 GDP per head: $7,160 (PPP: $11,320)
Squabbling among the country’s rulers
has led to cabinet changes and the
400
purging of business leaders, but the
government appears stable for now.
300
Although an election is not due until
2012, an early vote could be called if
the government thinks the economy
200
will worsen, which it might. The banks
remain troubled and the currency could
face a speculative attack, but oil-sector
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
NEW ZEALAND
GDP growth: 1.9%
GDP: $133bn (PPP: $120bn)
Inflation: 1.5%
Population: 4.4m
GDP per head: $30,350 (PPP: $27,360)
A budget that postpones tax cuts
planned for April and reduces
government spending met with public
approval, suggesting voters are realistic
about the pressures on the prime
minister, John Key, and remain broadly
supportive of his government. After
years of splurging, New Zealanders
will save more, dampening consumer
spending. The damaging effects of
falling house prices will also persist,
putting a further brake on consumption.
Modest recession in 2009 will become
modest recovery in 2010.
PAKISTAN
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Peace talks with communist insurgents
may resume after a four-year hiatus, but
a final settlement is unlikely. President
Gloria Macapagal Arroyo cannot stand
for a third term in the 2010 election, but
will try to retain influence by shifting
the centre of power to the legislature.
Remittances from overseas workers will
continue their recovery, helping to push
economic growth to 3.7%.
SINGAPORE
GDP growth: 3.8%
GDP: $178bn (PPP: $199bn)
Inflation: 2.0%
Population: 5.0m
GDP per head: $35,630 (PPP: $39,720)
Entrepôt to the world, the city-state
was battered by the collapse in world
trade that accompanied the credit
crunch. Plentiful foreign reserves have

projects, higher commodity prices and
the positive results of the stimulus
To watch: Home-town hero. Relations package will help the economy to grow.
with the US could get a boost: President
Barack Obama, whose stepfather was
MALAYSIA
Indonesian, spent some years in the
GDP growth: 3.9%
country as a child.
GDP: $220bn (PPP: $401bn)
Inflation: 0.8%
JAPAN Population: 28.9m
GDP per head: $7,630 (PPP: $13,880)
GDP growth: 1.3%
GDP: $5,128bn (PPP: $4,228bn) The ruling Barisan Nasional and the
Inflation: -0.2% combative prime minister, Najib Razak,
Population: 126.8m have a solid power base and will remain
GDP per head: $40,440 (PPP: $33,340) in charge, but a fierce contest with
the opposition Pakatan Rakyat for the
The country will enter the year in
loyalty of individual legislators will
uncharted political territory, following
keep politics confrontational. Malaysia’s
the electoral defeat in 2009 of the
worst recession in a decade will turn
Liberal Democrat Party (LDP) after 53
into a respectable rebound in 2010
years of almost uninterrupted power. In
as world demand rallies. But an even
its place, the Democratic Party of Japan
(DPJ) will aim to loosen the grip of the stronger pick-up in imports will lead to
civil service and increase pay-outs to a significant deterioration in the trade
the poor. But holding together a loose balance, and this will exert a drag on
coalition will be difficult, and the new GDP growth.
GDP growth: 2.4%
GDP: $170bn (PPP: $461bn)
Inflation: 8.6%
Population: 185.5m
GDP per head: $910 (PPP: $2,480)
National security will remain the most
pressing issue for the president, Asif Ali
Zardari. After a lull following the death
of Pakistan’s Taliban leader, Baitullah
Mehsud, in a US drone attack, hostilities
in the country’s lawless north-west
will regain their former intensity,
bringing the government’s stability
into question. American military and
development assistance will continue,
but the United States will demand
greater accountability from Pakistan’s
authorities. Pakistan’s main export
industry, textiles, will suffer from weak
global demand.
To watch: Don’t LOL. Wags sharing jokes
at Mr Zardari’s expense via electronic
media could face 14 years in prison
under a new law.
helped the ever-ruling People’s Action
Party government to soften the blow,
but long-suppressed calls for greater
political openness will intensify.
To watch: Cybersoccer. More than 3,000
robots from 40 countries will take to the
soccer pitch to compete for the RoboCup
in the world’s biggest robotics and
artificial-intelligence event.
SOUTH KOREA
GDP growth: 2.8%
GDP: $882bn (PPP: $1,421bn)
Inflation: 2.6%
Population: 49.5m
GDP per head: $17,810 (PPP: $28,700)
As elsewhere, the authorities will use
monetary and fiscal policy to mitigate
the economic downturn, at the cost
of public indebtedness and a growing
budget gap. A modest economic recovery
will bring some much-needed respite
to the president, Lee Myung-bak, whose
uncertain handling of the downturn
108 Countries The world in figures THE WORLD IN 2010
Factory fightback
Industrial production, 2005=100
130
120
110
100
90
2007 2008 2009
has estranged voters. US ties will get a
boost from close co-operation over North
Korea, but pending ratification of a free-
trade agreement will continue to face
opposition in South Korea and the US.
SRI LANKA
GDP growth: 6.3%
GDP: $49bn (PPP: $104bn)
Inflation: 8.7%
Population: 20.4m
GDP per head: $2,410 (PPP: $5,070)
Military victory over the Tamil Tigers will
deliver a modest peace dividend, with
a burst of inward investment driving
growth to 6.3%, but underlying ethnic
tension and isolated terrorist attacks will
persist. President Mahinda Rajapakse
and his United People’s Freedom
Alliance government should do well in
parliamentary elections which are due
by April but may well come earlier.
TAIWAN
GDP growth: 3.9%
GDP: $376bn (PPP: $824bn)
Inflation: 1.2%
Population: 22.9m
GDP per head: $16,430 (PPP: $35,990)
President Ma Ying-jeou and his
Kuomintang government have a strong
mandate—the ruling party controls
both parliament and the presidency—
and a rallying economy should reverse
a slide in popular support. Growth will
reach 3.9%, reversing a slump of similar
size in 2009. Improving ties with China
will remain a priority, and an economic
co-operation agreement with the
mainland may be reached in 2010.
THAILAND
GDP growth: 3.3%
GDP: $274bn (PPP: $555bn)
Inflation: 2.2%
Population: 67.5m
GDP per head: $4,060 (PPP: $8,230)
The political maelstrom surrounding the
prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, reflects
the power struggle that has infected
Thai politics for the past decade. Under
sustained attack from the opposition,
Abhisit is also seeing political friends Following the leader
GDP growth (bars) and unemployment (lines), % Canada Mexico US
dragged through the courts and coalition
allies eyeing the exits; this is likely to 10
be yet another election year. Starting 8
from a weak fiscal position, a three-year 6
stimulus programme that began in 4
2009 will swell the public debt while 2
delivering modest growth. 0
-2
-4
UZBEKISTAN
-6
GDP growth: 7.0% -8
GDP: $31bn (PPP: $83bn)
Inflation: 8.7% -10
Population: 28.6m 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
GDP per head: $1,100 (PPP: $2,890)
Islam Karimov will once again NORTH AMERICA
demonstrate his expertise in staying Main event: The verdict on Obamanomics in America’s November mid-term elections
on the presidential throne–most of North American (NAFTA) growth: 2.4%
his opponents are living in exile–and
speculation about the succession will To watch: Double celebration. Mexico
become relevant only if he dies. Stimulus Canada
celebrates 200 years of independence
measures and rising public-sector GDP growth: 2.0% (September) and the centenary of its
wages will support consumer spending, GDP: $1,478bn (PPP: $1,321bn)
revolution (November).
and improving global markets for the Inflation: 1.4%
Population: 34.0m
country’s commodities exports will drive
GDP per head: $43,450 (PPP: $38,850) United States
economic growth to 7%.
An election in 2010 is possible as the GDP growth: 2.4%
opposition Liberals manoeuvre to GDP: $14,840bn (PPP: $14,840bn)
VIETNAM Inflation: 1.0%
bring down the minority Conservative
GDP growth: 6.0% Population: 309.6m
GDP: $101bn (PPP: $274bn)
government, although signs that
GDP per head: $47,920 (PPP: $47,920)
Inflation: 8.5% economic recovery is under way
Population: 87.8m are likely to lift the incumbents. The fiscal surge coursing through
the economy—the budget deficit in
GDP per head: $1,150 (PPP: $3,120) Export demand will increase in 2010
as commodity prices stabilise and 2009 was equal to a staggering 12%
of GDP, and will be almost as large in
Red territory economic growth in the US—by far
Budget balance, % of GDP Canada’s most important customer— 2010—will help to restore growth.
So, too, will the unorthodox monetary
-2 moves back into positive territory. But
the recession revealed the dangers of conditions that have been in place
for the past year. But a second dip is
over-dependence on US demand, and
-4 trade policy will focus on diversifying a worrying possibility as the stimulus
export markets to fast-growers such fades and joblessness remains elevated.
as China. The economy will grow President Barack Obama will struggle to
-6 moderately, after 2009’s contraction, balance the left-leaning factions of his
but high unemployment will prevent a party with its centrists, but will secure
strong recovery. enough support in Congress—where
he has majorities—to advance his
-8
programmes. Embittered Republicans
Mexico will give him no quarter, and far-right
GDP growth: 3.0% paranoia will take on disturbing tones.
-10
GDP: $887bn (PPP: $1,668bn) Although Republican obstructionism will
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Inflation: 3.3% not be popular, the Democrats will lose
Population: 112.5m
GDP per head: $7,890 (PPP: $14,830)
ground in the November mid-terms.
Vietnam was less badly affected by the
global recession than its neighbours, but
The strong links with the United States Moving out
growth still halved between 2007 and that helped the economy early in the Home-ownership rates, % of total homes
2009. The Communist government, under
decade plunged Mexico into its worst 70
Nguyen Tan Dung, will lend and spend as recession since the 1930s in 2009,
necessary to keep the economy growing,
69
and the pace of the recovery will be 68
storing up imbalances for future years. constrained by the performance north 67
The government will continue gradually of the border. After handing majority 66
to shift its foreign relations in China’s control of the legislature to the once- 65
favour—a hotline was set up in 2009. hegemonic Partido Revolucionario
The rebalancing will place some strain Institucional in mid-2009 elections, the
64
on relations with America. ruling Partido Acción Nacional under 63
62
To watch: Prost! It will be steins, President Felipe Calderón will be unable
schwarzbrot and stollen as Vietnam to implement structural reforms already 61
celebrates German Year (and Germany long overdue. Should the global recovery
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2009
celebrates Vietnam Year), marking 35 fade, Mexico will be ill-prepared to
years of diplomatic relations. confront a new downturn. Source: US Bureau of the Census
 THE WORLD IN 2010 The world in figures Countries 109

More growth, less debt Cuba Peru

Debt/GDP (bars, lefthand scale), % GDP growth (lines, righthand scale), %
Latin America OECD Latin America GDP growth: 3.5% GDP growth: 3.0%
60 6 GDP: $59bn (PPP: $116bn) GDP: $134bn (PPP: $257bn)
50 5 Inflation: 4.7% Inflation: 2.3%
4 Population: 11.2m Population: 29.8m
40
3
GDP per head: $5,220 (PPP: $10,330) GDP per head: $4,520 (PPP: $8,610)
30
20 2 Handling the domestic backwash Tensions between indigenous
10 1 from global upheaval is routine for highlanders and a largely coastal elite
0 0 the Castros, and Raúl, who took over are returning to the fore and will present
-10 -1 as president from Fidel in 2008, will a challenge to the administration of Alan
-20 -2 squeeze government spending and García as the 2011 election approaches.
-30 -3 discourage imports. More tentative steps Thirty people died in armed clashes
-40 -4 will be taken in the long march towards in 2009, and Mr García has signalled a
normalised relations with the US. harder line still, hinting at violence to
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
come. By contrast, the economy will
perform smoothly.
LATIN AMERICA Ecuador
GDP growth: 2.3%
Main event: Brazil’s presidential election in October GDP: $56bn (PPP: $110bn) Uruguay
Latin American growth: 2.4% Inflation: 5.0% GDP growth: 2.0%
Population: 14.2m GDP: $34bn (PPP: $45bn)
Argentina worst, and growth will resume in 2010. GDP per head: $3,960 (PPP: $7,770) Inflation: 7.1%
Even so, the ruling Workers’ Party is Population: 3.3m
GDP growth: 1.4% President Rafael Correa is beholden to GDP per head: $10,220 (PPP: $13,330)
GDP: $293bn (PPP: $593bn) no shoo-in for re-election in October. the small parties on the far left that
Inflation: 8.3% Voters have not taken to its candidate- prop up his coalition after his own party, A new year, a new government term, but
Population: 40.5m in-waiting, Dilma Rousseff, and the Alianza País, lost majority control of the probably the same ruling party—José
GDP per head: $7,230 (PPP: $14,630) opposition candidate, José Serra, who is legislature in 2009; this will ensure that Mujica of the Frente Amplio was
Cristina Fernández de Kirchner is a lame- governor of São Paulo state, will shine as the radical populism driving his policies favourite ahead of late-2009 elections.
duck president in danger of losing her economic hardship persists. continues. Default on a portion of the If he wins, he will take over from the
job before her term ends in 2011. The foreign debt in 2008 scared off lenders, president, Tabaré Vázquez, in March,
opposition controls the legislature and Chile but the government may repeat the though almost certainly at the head
loyalty within her own Peronist Party tactic as external financing needs bite. of a minority government. With the
GDP growth: 3.9% economy recovering, policy will shift to
is sagging. Economic policies designed GDP: $170bn (PPP: $257bn) To watch: Flight plan. Quito’s new
mainly to secure the Kirchners’ power Inflation: 2.3%
an emphasis on fiscal rebalancing.
airport, which increases capacity tenfold,
base are being exposed by the global Population: 17.1m will open in 2010.
recession. There is an outside risk of GDP per head: $9,950 (PPP: $15,010) Venezuela
paralysing political protest and a new, The likely victory of Sebastián Piñera GDP growth: -3.4%
home-grown economic crisis. of the right-of-centre La Alianza in the
Paraguay GDP: $333bn (PPP: $334bn)
December 2009 presidential election GDP growth: 2.5% Inflation: 31.4%
To watch: Gaucho gala.The country Population: 28.6m
will mark the return of the right two GDP: $14bn (PPP: $29bn)
celebrates 200 years of independence on Inflation: 5.1% GDP per head: $11,660 (PPP: $11,990)
May 25th. decades after a military dictator, Augusto Population: 6.5m
Pinochet, restored civil rule, but will The country will buck the global
GDP per head: $2,140 (PPP: $4,510)
signify little change in the consensus- trend of economic recovery and
Bolivia After a rough start, the government remain deeply in recession. With so
led, pro-market policies that have
GDP growth: 2.8% characterised the intervening years. The of the president and former priest, little revenue, there cannot be much
GDP: $20bn (PPP: $47bn) Fernando Lugo, will get a shot in the more government stimulus. Moves to
Inflation: 4.4%
2009 recession was shallow, and growth
will resume. arm when fees start flowing in for centralise further government control
Population: 10.1m
GDP per head: $1,940 (PPP: $4,710)
Brazilian use of energy generated on will deepen social divisions and lead to
To watch: Out of Africa. The 32nd Dakar the Paraguayan side of the jointly outbreaks of violent protest. But Hugo
The political divide will remain sharp, rally will again be held in the Andean owned Itaipú hydroelectric complex. Chávez’s revolution will roll on, and a
with both the leftist president, Evo highlands between Chile and Argentina The cashflow will restore the budget to divided and harassed opposition will
Morales, and Senate candidates in the in March. The event’s African home was surplus, and help raise economic growth. be unable to exploit the opportunity
eastern opposition heartlands set to deemed too dangerous. Political capital from the Itaipú deal will presented by legislative elections in
do well in the end-2009 elections. With strengthen Mr Lugo’s grip on power. December.
Mr Morales confirmed in office until Colombia
2014, his state-led development model GDP growth: 2.4%
2010 in person

will become more entrenched. The GDP: $250bn (PPP: $418bn)

hydrocarbons windfall that financed
government stimulus spending in 2009
will fade, subduing economic recovery.
Brazil
GDP growth: 3.8%
GDP: $1,669bn (PPP: $2,113bn)
Inflation: 4.0%
Population: 196.8m
GDP per head: $8,480 (PPP: $10,740)
In contrast to neighbouring Argentina,
thrifty economic management has
cushioned Brazil against the recession’s
Inflation: 4.1%
Population: 48.9m
GDP per head: $5,110 (PPP: $8,540)
The centre-right is likely to retain power
in the May election, but the two-term
incumbent, Álvaro Uribe, may not be its
candidate after his party lost the contest
for leadership of Congress in 2009,
setting back plans to lift a constitutional
ban on third terms. If he isn’t, his former
defence minister, Juan Manuel Santos,
is the favourite, and would continue Mr
Uribe’s pro-market economic reforms.
Long known as the poorest country in the Western
hemisphere, Haiti has stumbled from one crisis to
another since the Duvalier years. But under its prime
minister, Michèle Pierre-Louis, the country has
an opportunity to make substantial and sustainable
gains in both economics and politics. Her domestic
achievements are already considerable, holding
together a diverse coalition and quelling a determined
opposition. Abroad, she has worked well with
international leaders and won some influential friends,
including Bill Clinton, a former US president. The tenure of Ms Pierre-Louis,
whose social-activist brother-in-law was assassinated in 1998, may conceivably
mark a turning-point in the country’s long battle with extreme poverty, bloody
confrontation and deep-rooted social injustice.
110 Countries The world in figures THE WORLD IN 2010

Against the current to be Mr Mubarak’s son, Gamal—will Countdown

Current-account gap, $bn top the agenda in 2010, even if it Civilian deaths from violence
2005 2010
doesn’t happen. In the meantime 3,000
250
the government will continue with a
200 2,500
budget-busting programme designed
150 to support living standards and quell
2,000
100 popular discontent.
50 1,500
0 Ethiopia
1,000
-50 GDP growth: 7.0%
GDP: $35bn (PPP: $83bn)

United Arab
(excl Iraq)

All Arab

Saudi Arabia

Iran
Oil exporters

Middle East &

North Africa

Kuwait

Qatar

North Africa

Libya

Emirates

Algeria

Non-oil
exporters
500
Inflation: 12.0%
Population: 75.1m
GDP per head: $464 (PPP: $1,100) 0
2007 2008 2009

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA Political tensions will rise around the
May election, but the Ethiopian People’s
Source: www.iraqbodycount.org

Main event: Mounting pressures in Iran, both political and economic Revolutionary Democratic Front will Israel
Middle East & North Africa growth: 4.4% stay in power. The IMF has rewarded the GDP growth: 2.3%
government’s economic management GDP: $199bn (PPP: $207bn)
Sub-Saharan Africa growth: 3.1% with financial support, and a strong Inflation: 2.9%
performance in agriculture, the mainstay Population: 7.6m
Beti ethnic group. Still, his supporters
Algeria will gather round when needed, and of the country, will make this one of the GDP per head: $26,300 (PPP: $27,400)
GDP growth: 4.6% a weakened opposition doesn’t pose world’s fastest-growing economies. The prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu,
GDP: $182bn (PPP: $301bn) much threat. Little is likely to happen and his coalition partners have 74 seats
Inflation: 3.7% in the Knesset (that is, more than half)
Population: 35.5m
to damage Mr Biya’s overwhelming Iran
GDP per head: $5,140 (PPP: $8,470) chances of winning re-election when but divisions within his government
his term ends in 2011. GDP growth: 2.9% mean that his real authority is far
The re-election of Abdelaziz Bouteflika GDP: $415bn (PPP: $889bn) weaker than that figure suggests. Likud,
to a third successive presidential term To watch: Relieved. Sufferers from Inflation: 14.0%
his own party, is holding up, but two
in 2009 promises continuity but will prostate troubles will benefit from Population: 75.1m
senior coalition partners are in trouble.
the removal of a conservation ban on GDP per head: $5,530 (PPP: $11,840)
also see increased instability as his A legal case threatens the effectiveness
opponents, both liberals and Islamists, harvesting the Prunus Africana, an Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, re-elected in of Yisrael Beiteinu, while the Labour
chafe at their lack of influence. indigenous tree whose bark yields a questionable vote in 2009, will be Party is divided and offers only faltering
Discontent could be limited to street compounds beneficial in treating back firmly in the driving seat after a support. The government will use public
protests, but could extend to attacks prostate-related conditions. shaky start to his second term. Critics spending to boost growth, at the cost of
on the army or a renewed campaign of from within the conservative camp have a widening fiscal deficit.
terrorist bombings. Egypt been largely neutralised by the need
to fight off the fury of the opposition
GDP growth: 4.5%
and the regime’s opponents in the West. Jordan
Angola GDP: $212bn (PPP: $498bn)
Inflation: 6.2% The end of the oil boom will expose the GDP growth: 3.0%
GDP growth: 5.5% GDP: $23bn (PPP: $33bn)
GDP: $98bn (PPP: $128bn) Population: 84.8m weaknesses in Iran’s economic model,
GDP per head: $2,500 (PPP: $5,870) squeezing domestic financing while Inflation: 5.8%
Inflation: 11.4% Population: 6.4m
Population: 19.0m Despite the regime’s clear distaste foreign investment flows are restricted
GDP per head: $3,590 (PPP: $5,150)
GDP per head: $5,160 (PPP: $6,760) for public discussion of 81-year-old by sanctions.
A property boom and a heavy reliance on
José Eduardo dos Santos, president President Hosni Mubarak’s health (four tourism meant the country was exposed
for the past three decades, will win newspaper editors were jailed in 2007 Iraq to the global financial meltdown and
re-election in a delayed vote likely to for publishing speculative stories), GDP growth: 6.2% ensuing economic slump, and the
take place in 2010, and his Popular the succession will dominate political GDP: $91bn (PPP: $130bn) government will support domestic
Movement for the Liberation of Angola thinking. The ruling party has said it Inflation: 6.1% demand regardless of the impact on the
will continue to dominate politics. After will not choose a presidential candidate Population: 31.3m budget. Reform efforts will concentrate
a temporary decline in oil exports under until 2011, when elections are due, but GDP per head: $2,910 (PPP: $4,150)
on the economy rather than politics,
OPEC’s quota regime in 2009, output will the shift to a new leader—presumed where King Abdullah will continue to
Violence increased in the wake of the
rally, pushing growth to 5.5%. withdrawal of US troops from Iraq’s cities dominate, with the support of the armed
Widening budget gap forces.
To watch: Ill wind. Mr dos Santos is $bn
in mid-2009, but to nowhere near the
Budget revenue
rumoured to be ill. If he is forced to drop Budget expenditure level at the height of the post-invasion
his re-election bid, the lack of succession conflict. Even so, the Iraqi armed forces Kenya
80
candidates may stir up political conflict. will face a difficult year as bombings
designed to widen sectarian divides GDP growth: 2.7%
70 GDP: $38bn (PPP: $66bn)
Cameroon continue. Nuri al-Maliki, the prime Inflation: 6.5%
60 minister, will seek re-election in January, Population: 40.9m
GDP growth: 1.4% though his decision to remain aloof from GDP per head: $940 (PPP: $1,610)
GDP: $24bn (PPP: $42bn) 50 a new Shia coalition reduces his chances.
Inflation: 3.2% The coalition government, combining
Population: 20.0m 40 To watch: Yankees’ home run. President President Mwai Kibaki of the Party of
GDP per head: $1,190 (PPP: $2,090) Barack Obama has said he’ll keep a National Unity and his prime minister
President Paul Biya has taken flak 30 campaign promise to pull American and main political rival, Raila Odinga of
for too energetic a focus on securing combat troops out of Iraq by August, the Orange Democratic Movement, will
his personal power base—including, though up to 50,000 are likely to remain look pretty wobbly, much as it has since
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unusually, from members of his own in support roles. its formation in 2008, although it will
 THE WORLD IN 2010 The world in figures Countries 111

through a weak parliament, will keep

2010 in person
probably survive. But disagreements Fifteen years on, the ethnic bloodletting that took
over key appointments and policy discontent on the boil—and keep
security forces busy suppressing dissent close to a million lives in 1994 is still the main thing
priorities will get in the way of effective most outsiders know about Rwanda. If the country
government. An improved global and neutralising Islamist factions. Fiscal
stimulus and a bumper harvest helped now begins to break free of that legacy, much of the
environment will bring economic growth credit must go to Paul Kagame, the first directly
back to 2.7% after the 2009 slowdown. the country avoid recession in 2009, and
will contribute to a small improvement elected president since the genocide and all but
in 2010. certain to win re-election in 2010. Mr Kagame, either
Lebanon on the throne or behind it since 1994, could work on
Capital flights his sense of inclusiveness (he is particularly intolerant
GDP growth: 3.3%
GDP: $32bn (PPP: $48bn) Tourism receipts, $bn of internal dissent), but few doubt his commitment to propelling his country
Inflation: 3.9% 8 into the modern era and raising the living standards of his people. Nevertheless,
Population: 4.3m Rwanda remains at a fork in the road, and whether it takes the path to
7
GDP per head: $7,480 (PPP: $11,210) reconciliation and progress or to authoritarianism and repression will be decided
6 during Mr Kagame’s second term.
Managing the sectarian jigsaw of
Lebanese politics will remain at the 5
top of the agenda after Saad al- economic growth of recent years. His
Hariri, emphatic winner of mid-2009 4 South Africa anti-corruption campaign will help
elections, abandoned efforts to build 3 GDP growth: 3.1% his cause, and he remains personally
a government in September. Mr Hariri GDP: $275bn (PPP: $498bn) popular. Donor-funded construction will
2 Inflation: 5.7%
blamed opposition forces sponsored contribute to stronger economic growth.
by Iran and Syria for blocking him. His Population: 49.1m
1
GDP per head: $5,610 (PPP: $10,140)
opponents said his own mistakes sealed
his fate. In contrast to the stuttering 0
Preparations for the soccer World Cup, to UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
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political process, competent economic be hosted by South Africa, have already GDP growth: 4.1%
policy will deliver 3.3% growth. given a boost to the economy through GDP: $269bn (PPP: $191bn)
Nigeria infrastructure spending. There is more Inflation: 4.2%
To watch: Judgment day. The tribunal Population: 5.6m
investigating the 2005 killing of a former GDP growth: 5.2% to come as football fans from around
GDP: $167bn (PPP: $348bn) the world descend on the country’s big GDP per head: $48,280 (PPP: $34,310)
prime minister, Rafiq Hariri, is likely to Inflation: 8.5%
point the finger at Syria. cities. But the economic headwinds The economic downturn forced Dubai to
Population: 152.2m will be strong, and maintaining living adopt a more cautious and rigorous way
GDP per head: $1,100 (PPP: $2,290) standards will remain a challenge of doing business, but its ruler and the
Libya The government of President Umaru for the government of President UAE’s prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed
GDP growth: Yar’Adua will face the difficult choice
5.1% Jacob Zuma. Unemployment will stay bin Rashid al-Maktoum, is expected to
GDP: between pushing ahead with a
$55bn (PPP: $121bn) alarmingly high, above 20%, causing a maintain his pro-business approach
Inflation: 5.4%
programme of important but unpopular lot of social unrest. to the administration of the emirate.
Population: 6.5m
market reforms and courting interest Politics will remain broadly stable, and
GDP per head: $8,350 (PPP: $18,550) To watch: Rounders? If the FIFA World
groups which favour the state-led Cup doesn’t appeal, try the International significant reform is unlikely in the
Colonel Muammar Qaddafi, the world’s model and the subsidy structure Fellowship of Cricket-loving Rotarians’ coming years. A gradual increase in oil
longest-serving ruler since the death that characterises it. The job will be World Festival, which will be held in output and the launch of several large
in mid-2009 of President Omar Bongo all the more difficult because of the Durban in March. energy projects will help the economy to
Ondimba of Gabon, will extend his record impact of the global slowdown on start growing again.
by another year—and is on track to Nigeria’s economy, where the hard-hit
For hire
establish dynastic succession to one international oil market is a mainstay. Unemployment, %
of his sons when the time comes. The However, strong performance in non-oil Zimbabwe
30
colonel’s aim of improving ties with industries helped the country steer well GDP growth: 1.9%
the West will continue to be weakened clear of recession in 2009, and rallying 29 GDP: $1.5bn (PPP: $1.9bn)
by his idiosyncratic leadership style global demand will help push the 28 Inflation: 4.6%
Population: 12.6m
and policy decisions. Nevertheless, the growth rate to 5.2% in 2010—slow by 27
GDP per head: $120 (PPP: $160)
country’s oil wealth ensures that the recent standards but far from disastrous. 26
rapprochement will carry on. Economic 25
The struggle between Robert Mugabe’s
growth, which held at 4% in 2009 Saudi Arabia Zimbabwe African National Union-
24
despite the global slowdown, will Patriotic Front and Morgan Tsvangirai’s
accelerate to 5.1% in 2010. GDP growth: 3.3% 23 Movement for Democratic Change, which
GDP: $472bn (PPP: $622bn)
Inflation: 4.0%
22 theoretically share power in a unity
government, will dominate politics.
Morocco Population: 26.2m 21
With each side seeking to undercut the
GDP per head: $18,020 (PPP: $23,740)
GDP growth: 3.4% other’s power base, progress towards
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GDP: $99bn (PPP: $151bn)
Inflation: 2.6%
Population: 32.3m
GDP per head: $3,060 (PPP: $4,670)
Moroccans may not like laws that
make it a major crime to question
the legitimacy of the monarchy, but
they do like the king, and Muhammad
VI, a decade on the throne, faces no
substantial threat to his authority.
Nevertheless, poor standards of living
and high unemployment, combined
with the lack of popular representation
After the first recession in a decade in restoring economic stability will be
2009, economic policy will focus on
halting and the threat of violence will be
restoring growth, by distributing credit ever-present. By-elections were frozen
through the government’s lending TANZANIA
until late-2009 under the power-sharing
institutions, and increasing subsidies GDP growth: 5.0% deal, but clashes over vote-rigging are
and other public transfers. The policies, GDP: $23bn (PPP: $59bn)
Inflation: 8.0%
inevitable as the election cycle resumes.
combined with an improving global
outlook, will drive growth to 3.3%. The Population: 45.0m To watch: Cheaper by the dozen.
GDP per head: $500 (PPP: $1,310)
price of oil will climb to an annual average Monthly inflation, which was estimated
of $74, 19% up on 2009. Politics will Jakaya Kikwete, the president, is likely to at 231,000,000% in mid-2008, was down
see no big change, with King Abdullah win the election due in late 2010 even to 1% in August 2009 after the local
bin Abdul-Aziz al-Saud in control and though many voters believe they have currency was replaced by the dollar. It
democratic reform off the agenda. not benefited much from the strong will remain negligible in 2010.