Hudson Valley Municipal Official

Views on Climate Change Views on Climate Change

Allison M. Chatrchyan
Cornell Cooperative
Shorna Allred
Associate Professor
Maureen Mullen
Communications Outreach p
Extension (CCE)
CCE Statewide Energy &
Climate Change Team
Human Dimensions of
Natural Resources
Dept. of Natural Resources
Assistant
Dept. of Natural Resources
Cornell University
Presentation to the Hudson Valley Climate Change Network
Norrie Point Environmental Center, Staatsburg, NY
August 13, 2012
Municipal Climate Change Study
Cornell Smith Lever Funding (R. Schneider, PI)
2007-10 for three year study focused on natural
f i l G t f W t resource professionals. Grant from Water
Resources Institute (S. Allred, PI) 2011-2012 to
study municipal officials in Hudson Valley study municipal officials in Hudson Valley.
Collaboration between faculty CCE Extension Collaboration between faculty, CCE Extension,
and project partners (NYS DEC, HREP) in survey
design &outputs. design & outputs.
I t f L l Importance of Local
Governments Governments
Cities are pivotal actors in climate change but a
relatively understudied in U S (Sharp et al 2011) relatively understudied in U.S. (Sharp et al. 2011)
Many local governments are crafting policy to
address climate change (Sharp et al. 2011)
Important to understand motivation for actions for Important to understand motivation for actions for
climate protection policies as well as what actions
are being taken for planning and implementation
Goals of Study Were to Determine
1 G l i li t h i k d i 1. General views on climate change; risks and issues
associated with climate change and natural resources
2 Adaptation tools which might successfully address climate 2. Adaptation tools which might successfully address climate
change.
3. Attitudes towards various state and local policy solutions to
address climate change.
4. If/if not already taking action in their positions to address
climate change (why/why not) Benefits/obstacles of taking climate change (why/why not). Benefits/obstacles of taking
action.
5. Information Needs/Tools to help implement
solutions and adaptations.
Research Methods
Quantitative
Web +Mail Survey Web + Mail Survey
Factor Analysis
Qualitative
In-depth interviews
Thematic coding Thematic coding
Survey Methodology
Survey of municipal officials in NewYork State with oversampling for Survey of municipal officials in New York State, with oversampling for
Hudson Valley (N=1,488)
Primarily web (mail for those without accessible e-mail addresses)
County Executives, Mayors, Town Supervisors, Environmental
Management Council members, and Conservation Advisory Council
members, N=1,416
Conducted 2010-2011
1 invitation e-mail and up to 6 reminder e-mail contacts
Response rate=21% (n=299)
Our respondents were:
Municipal Role n %
Elected officials 201 70 5% Elected officials 201 70.5%
Appointed officials 35 12.3%
Paid Staff 23 8.1%
Volunteer Position (i.e., committee member) 12 4.2%
Conservation Advisory Commission (CAC)
B d M b
25 8.8%
or Board Member
Municipal consultant 4 1.4%
Other function 1
0.4%
Codes, Ag
Comp. Plan
Respondents held these positions for:
Number of years n %
0-9 years 158 59.0%
10 19 71 26 5% 10-19 years 71 26.5%
20-29 years 29 10 8% 20-29 years 29 10.8%
30-39 years 8 3.0% y
40-49 years 1 0.4%
50+ years 1 0.4%
Region 1: 3.3%
(10)
Respondents were from:
Region 2: 0%
Region 3: 26.4%
(79) (79)
Region 4: 16.7%
(50)
Region 5: 11.4%
(34)
Region 6: 5%
(15)
Region 7: 13.8% Region 7: 13.8%
(41)
Region 8: 12%
(36)
54.5%
(36)
Region 9: 10.4%
(31)
How would you assess your current level of
knowledge about the causes and potential
1%
o edge abou e causes a d po e a
impacts of climate change in New York State?
8%
(24)
13%
(38)
(2)
I don't knowmuch
23%
(67)
(38)
I dont know much
I know a little bit
(67)
I am moderately well-
informed
I amvery
55%
I am very
knowledgeable
I am an expert
(156)
Key findings of municipal officials attitudes about
climate change:
3%
7% 20% 40% 31%
The science indicates our
climate is changing
g
3%
There is sufficient evidence
that over the coming decade,
g g
4%
13% 21% 37% 26% climate change will affect the
natural resources with which I
work
Strongly disagree
Disagree
Neutral
4%
14% 23% 40% 19%
I already see evidence of how
climate change is affecting
New York's natural resources
Neutral
Agree
Strongly agree
10% 38% 28% 20% 4%
There is sufficient information
available on how to address
climate impacts at the local
0% 50% 100%
climate impacts at the local
level
Please rate the relevancy and vulnerability of the
following impacts to your municipality: g p y p y
5
Relevancy
Vulnerability
3
4
2
3
1
2
Increased sea
level
Increased
average
winter
temperature
Increased
temperature
in summer,
higher heat
Increased
summer
drought
Increased
severity or
frequency of
other extreme
Increased
precipitation,
flooding
SCALE: 1 =not at all relevant/vulnerable, 5 =very relevant/vulnerable
temperature
with reduced
freezing
higher heat
index
other extreme
weather
events
Has your municipality already taken actions to
address climate change? g
Yes
24%
I don't
know
9%
24%
(60)
9%
(23)
No No
67%
(169)
What actions has your municipality taken to
adapt to climate change?
Adaptation Actions n %
p g
Partnering with local groups to address climate issues 25 42%
Developing a flood mitigation plan/program 22 37% Developing a flood mitigation plan/program 22 37%
Planning on long-term horizons (10+ years) 14 23%
Conducting outreach and education 13 22%
Practicing adaptive management 13 22%
Developing a climate action plan 12 20%
Pl i f ifi d t ti t th l l l l 12 20% Planning for specific adaptations at the local level 12 20%
Implementing a climate action plan 6 10%
What actions has your municipality taken to
mitigate climate change?
Mitigation Actions n %
Investing in energy savings from buildings 52 87%
g g
Investing in energy savings from buildings 52 87%
Planting trees 43 72%
Investing in and protecting green and open spaces 36 60% Investing in and protecting green and open spaces 36 60%
Investing in energy savings from transportation 24 40%
Purchasing renewable energy 22 37% Purchasing renewable energy 22 37%
Adopting Climate Smart Communities 22 37%
Investing in energy savings from industrial & waste Investing in energy savings from industrial & waste
processes
19 32%
Conduct baseline GHG emissions inventory and forecast 16 27%
Developing climate action plan for GHG 12 20%
Adopting emissions reduction target for the forecast year 10 17%
What factors prompted your municipality to
take action? take action?
Factor Mean Rating
1
Being a Responsible Leader 3.68
Fiscal Savings 3.59
Cooperation and Partnerships 3.37
Constituent Pressure 2.97
Inaction of Government Top-down Mandate Inaction of Government, Top-down Mandate,
and Local Impacts
2.82
1
1=not important, 2=slightly important, 3=somewhat important, 4=important, 5=very important
Factors that Influenced Adaptation Actions
Influencing Factors
1
Mean for Each Group F-Statistic P-value
Proactive Leadership
1-2 actions= 3.53
3-12 actions= 4.06
5.757 .020*
1 2 ti 2 67
Inaction of Government
1-2 actions= 2.67
3-12 actions= 3.26
4.391 .042*
Cooperation and 1-2 actions=3 27 Cooperation and
Partnerships
1-2 actions= 3.27
3-12 actions= 3.76
2.885 .095
Fi l S i
1-2 actions= 3.54
1 507 225 Fiscal Savings
3-12 actions= 3.82
1.507 .225
Constituent Pressure
1-2 actions= 2.97
0 176 677 Constituent Pressure
3-12 actions= 3.10
0.176 .677
1
1=not important, 2=slightly important, 3=somewhat important, 4=important, 5=very important
*significant difference between groups at the p<.05 level
Factors that Influenced Mitigation Actions
Influencing Factors
1
Mean for Each Group F-Statistic P-value
Proactive Leadership
1-4 actions= 3.42
5-10 actions= 4.10
9.778 .003*
C ti d 1 4 ti 3 11 Cooperation and
Partnerships
1-4 actions= 3.11
5-10 actions= 3.78
5.695 .021*
1-4 actions=2 70
Inaction of Government
1 4 actions 2.70
5-10 actions= 3.05
1.418 .240
Constituent Pressure
1-4 actions= 3.13
1 284 262 Constituent Pressure
5-10 actions= 2.8
1.284 .262
Fiscal Savings
1-4 actions= 3.52
5 10 actions=3 77
1.252 .268 g
5-10 actions= 3.77
1
1=not important, 2=slightly important, 3=somewhat important, 4=important, 5=very important
*significant difference between groups at the p<.05 level
What factors are barriers to your
municipality taking action? municipality taking action?
Factor
Mean
Rating
1
Rating
1
Lack of Resources (Financial and Human)
3.72
Lack of Resources (Financial and Human)
Inaction of Government atAll Levels 3 17 Inaction of Government at All Levels 3.17
Lack of Information and External Pressure toAct 3 06 Lack of Information and External Pressure to Act 3.06
Intra-Organizational Issues 2 42 Intra Organizational Issues 2.42
1
1=not a barrier, 2=minimal barrier, 3=slight barrier, 4=moderate barrier, 5=significant barrier
In-Depth Interviews
Focus on the Hudson Valley
Qualitative Methods: face to face interviews
Nine interviews with cross section of officials:
Rural vs. Urban Views
4 Climate Smart Communities (CSC) vs. 5 Non-CSCs
5 Communities that had experienced significant FEMA-
level flooding events vs 5 Communities level flooding events vs. 5 Communities
with less flooding events
Municipalities Interviewed
/ l l d / l l d CSC/FEMALevelFlooding:
- City,MidHudsonValley
- LargeUrbanizedTown,LowerHudsonValley
NoCSC/FEMALevelFlooding:
- PopulatedSuburbanTown,MidHudson
Valley
- SmallRuralTown,LowerHudsonValley
ll l d d ll - SmallRural Town,MidHudsonValley
CSC/LessFEMALevelFlooding:
- Small,RuralTown,MidHudsonValley
- City,UpperHudsonValley
NoCSC/LessFEMALevelFlooding:
- SmallRuralTown,MidHudsonValley
- SmallTown,LowerHudsonValley
Municipal Officials Interviewed: Town Supervisors (7), City Mayor (1), City
Alderman (1) Town Board (1) CAC (1) Staff (3) Alderman (1), Town Board (1), CAC (1), Staff (3)
Counties Represented:
Albany, Columbia, Dutchess, Green, Orange, Putnam, Rockland, Ulster
In-Depth Interview Questions
How much knowledge do you feel you have?
Have you seen any local effects of climate change?
How vulnerable do you think your municipality is?
Has your municipality started any local planning? Has your municipality started any local planning?
What are the barriers to addressing climate change?
What kinds of local projects or planning tools would be most useful?
What specific information do you need?
Key Findings: Knowledge
9 Municipalities:
4 minimal knowledge; 3 fair bit of knowledge; 2 High level of knowledge
Unclear about Science, but See Changes:
I would say I have limited knowledge as to the theoretical causes for
weather changes Im not sure how to tie the cause and effect We have weather changesI m not sure how to tie the cause and effect. We have
had some extreme weather situations in the past 2-3 years, but I haven't had
anyone connect the dots as to the causes of those events.
Precautionary Principle: Precautionary Principle:
I think if we wait for the scientists to definitively say oh there is climate
change, I think its too late so I think that we need to...just start changing our
behavior patterns to do what we can to I wont say combat climate change behavior patterns to do what we can to, I won t say combat climate change,
but counteract it with, with our activities.
Key Findings: Local Effects
Are you seeing local effects in your municipality?
1. Flooding *(*mentioned in every municipality)
2. Effects on infrastructure - roads, bridges, culverts ects o ast uctu e oads, b dges, cu e ts
3. Heavy rainfall over short periods of time, effecting streams
4. Blizzards &ice storms, causing downed trees and power
outages
5. Negative Budget Impacts
6 Milder inters and decreased sno fall/road salt costs 6. Milder winters and decreased snowfall/road salt costs
7. Sea Level Rise & Ecosystem Effects
8 Periods of high temperature that negatively 8. Periods of high temperature, that negatively
affect air quality
Key Findings: Local Effects
Are you seeing local effects in your municipality:
Weve had these spectacular events - that 17 of snow in October, the huge
snowstorm a couple years ago; weve had flooding, and thing is, all these events
are extreme events. Theres never a nice dusting, theres never just a spring
shower anymore, you knowIts a torrent.
Supervisor large Town in Mid-Hudson Valley Supervisor, large Town in Mid-Hudson Valley
Inconsistency: Planning & Budgeting Challenges: Inconsistency: Planning & Budgeting Challenges:
We see such an inconsistency in the weather. Other than that big snowstorm
there hasnt been any snow this winter. Last year we had 40 something events of
snow - so from one year to the otherits incredibly difficult to plan. y y p
Supervisor, large Town in Mid-Hudson Valley
Key Findings: Vulnerability
9 Municipalities:
1 limited vulnerability; 5 somewhat vulnerable; 3 very vulnerable 1 limited vulnerability; 5 somewhat vulnerable; 3 very vulnerable
Higher vulnerability assessment did not lead to
greater action g
Id say were significantly vulnerable because of
the fact that one-third of our community is
surrounded by water
Mayor, Small City in Upper Hudson Valley
Key Findings: Local Action
9 Municipalities: 8 Taken Some Action; 1 Indicated No Action
Taken (actions not necessarily linked to knowledge of climate change Taken (actions not necessarily linked to knowledge of climate change
impacts):
1. Adaptation: Stormwater/Green Infrastructure
2 Adaptation: Emergency Preparedness 2. Adaptation: Emergency Preparedness
3. Mitigation Climate Smart Community/ICLEI 4 Municipalities
4. Adaptation: Comprehensive Plan/Local Laws
5. Mitigation: Energy Conservation
6. Mitigation: Community Education
7. Mitigation: GHG Inventory g y
8. Mitigation: Renewable Energy
Some municipalities unclear about mitigation vs.
adaptation measures
B i t Add i Cli t Barriers to Addressing Climate
Change Locally: Change Locally:
1. Financial
2. Lack of general understanding of climate change g g g
3. Excessive Government Regulation
4. Technical
5. Competing interests
6. Knowledge local effects
7. Lack of time/volunteer burnout
8. Not a local problem
Thats the biggest hurdle we still have to overcome is getting the vocabulary
more in use. Its also a competition of interestsOur biggest immediate issues
are economic, employment, economic development, balancing the budget,
living within a 2% tax cap paying for retirement plans for employees etc All of living within a 2% tax cap, paying for retirement plans for employees, etc. All of
those financial issues sit on the table every day and call our names, so how
could you even acknowledge climate change.
- City Alderman, Mid-Hudson Valley
Information & Assistance Needs:
1. Knowledge of Local Effects
2. Education to Improve Basic Understanding
3. Funding
4. Technical/Government tell us what to do
5. Partnerships/Consultations/Cooperation
6. Planning Help/Adaptation Resources
7 Emergency Planning 7. Emergency Planning
We tend to have a reactive plan, you know based around a historic set of weather
conditions and we act accordingly No one has given us any foresight into what to conditions, and we act accordingly. No one has given us any foresight into what to
expect. If I knew that we were going to get x amount more snow in the next year,
wed have to budget accordingly with materials, or if I knew we were going to have
rainfall of 4 greater in certain months, then thats something wed have to look at
certain roads and figure out what the 4 increase in rainfall would mean to those
roads. But I dont have that.
- Supervisor of a small, rural town in the Mid-Hudson Valley
How useful would the following resources be in
your work to address climate change at the local
Information about
veryuseful
y g
level?
22%
13%
34%
29%
22%
25%
12%
15%
10%
18%
Educationaland
Informationabout
regulations
y
useful
24%
22%
31%
34%
22%
22%
13%
12%
10%
10%
Climatechangeresearch
communicationresources
somewhat
useful
slightly useful
29%
24%
33%
31%
17%
22%
12%
13%
9%
10%
Climatechange
information and planning
anddata
slightlyuseful
notatall
useful
55%
29%
22%
33%
10%
17%
7%
12%
6%
9%
Informationon
informationandplanning
resources
useful
55% 22% 10%7%6%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
funding/incentivesources
What information does your municipality
need to address climate change? need to address climate change?
Information Needs % Information Needs %
How likely or severe the effects will be 52%
Things you can do to prevent it 51%
General information about climate change 44%
Available responses to the effects of climate change 41%
The process of climate change 27%
Multiple answers were allowed
Conclusions and Recommendations
The majority of municipal officials have some
knowledge about climate change but they knowledge about climate change, but they
would like to know more about the likeliness
and severity of the predicted climate change and severity of the predicted climate change
effects in their community, how they can
prevent and/or respond to these effects as well prevent and/or respond to these effects, as well
as learn more about climate change in general.
Conclusions and Recommendations
Municipal officials would most like access to
resources about funding sources and resources about funding sources and
incentive programs, followed by climate
change information and data (e g monitoring change information and data (e.g., monitoring
programs, vulnerability assessments,
adaptation research) and management plans adaptation research), and management plans
(e.g., model ordinances, hazard mitigation).
Implications
New York has adopted an 80/50 goal
for GHG emission reductions
Large number of small governments
(62 counties, 932 towns, and 62 cities) ( )
Municipalities control energy use, infrastructure,
planning, and land use decisions locally. p g, y
Although a majority of municipal officials believe in
the science of climate change, only 24% of the
municipal officials surveyed have begun addressing
climate change in their community.
Tools
Cornell Climate Change Website:
www.climatechange.cornell.edu g
Climate Change Fact Sheets
Speakers & PPT Presentations
To Be Developed: Decision To Be Developed: Decision
Tools, based on Needs
Forthcoming Publications
Addressing Climate Change at the Municipal
Level. Cornell Climate Change Program Work Team
Fact Sheets Series 2012 Fact Sheets Series, 2012.
Local Climate Change Challenges and Opportunities: Local Climate Change Challenges and Opportunities:
Understanding Municipal Official Perspectives.
Cornell University Human Dimensions Research Unit,
Outreach Series Outreach Series.
Climate Change Adaptation and Community Climate Change Adaptation and Community
Resilience. Community and Rural Development
Institute (CaRDI) Research and Policy Brief.
Contacts/Questions:
Allison Chatrchyan (amc256@cornell.edu)
wwwclimatechange cornell edu www.climatechange.cornell.edu
Shorna Allred (srb237@cornell.edu) Shorna Allred (srb237@cornell.edu)
www.human-dimensions.org
Maureen Mullen (mlm394@cornell.edu)