Notes on using the forecasting template:

All values in blue cells are to be entered by the user, all other values are automatically calculated, and do not need to be altered. Most ofte
Actual column. Each forecast model has a sample value set entered, make sure to clear all values before proceeding with your own da

Cells with red marks in the upper right corner have comments, let the mouse hover over those cells to read the comments to fu
model.

This spreadsheet is locked/protected in order to keep the cells with equations from being changed. If a model does need to b
needs to be unlocked/unprotected. Do this by selecting the workbook you wish to unlock, click on "Tools", highlight "Protect
Sheet". The sheet will then be unlocked so alterations can be made.

Equations for models will be given when available.
cells are to be entered by the user, all other values are automatically calculated, and do not need to be altered. Most often this is the
column. Each forecast model has a sample value set entered, make sure to clear all values before proceeding with your own data.
Cells with red marks in the upper right corner have comments, let the mouse hover over those cells to read the comments to further explain the template
This spreadsheet is locked/protected in order to keep the cells with equations from being changed. If a model does need to be altered, the spreadsheet first
needs to be unlocked/unprotected. Do this by selecting the workbook you wish to unlock, click on "Tools", highlight "Protection", and select "Unprotect
Simple Moving Average
Periods 3
MAD #DIV/0!
MSE 0
Period Actual Forecast Error
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1 6 11 16 21 26
Actual Forecast
Period
Simple Moving Average
The Simple Moving Average will take the last several data points and average them to forecast the next
period. The number of data points (or periods) selected is set by the value in the



( )
1 n
F A
MSE
n
F A
MAD
periods of number Total = n
period the for demand Forecast = F
period the for demand Actual = A
number Period = t
p
A ... A A A
F
period) previous the (or 1 - t period in demand Actual A
averaged be to periods of Number = p
period) coming the (or t period for Forecast = F
n
1 t
2
t t
n
1 t
t t
p - t 3 t 2 t 1 t
t
1 - t
t

=
+ + + +
=
=

=
=

(MSE) Error Square Mean
(MAD) Deviation Absolute Mean
Average Moving Simple
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
26 31 36 41 46 51 56
Period
Simple Moving Average
will take the last several data points and average them to forecast the next
period. The number of data points (or periods) selected is set by the value in the Periods cell.
( )
1 n
F A
MSE
n
F A
MAD
periods of number Total = n
period the for demand Forecast = F
period the for demand Actual = A
number Period = t
p
A ... A A A
F
period) previous the (or 1 - t period in demand Actual A
averaged be to periods of Number = p
period) coming the (or t period for Forecast = F
n
1 t
2
t t
n
1 t
t t
p - t 3 t 2 t 1 t
t
1 - t
t

=
+ + + +
=
=

=
=

(MSE) Error Square Mean
(MAD) Deviation Absolute Mean
Average Moving Simple
Weighted Moving Average (3 period)
Weight 3 Weight 2 Weight 1
Least Recent Most Recent
MAD #DIV/0! ERROR
MSE 0 Weights must total 1
Period Actual Forecast Error
1
2
3
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
10 0
11 0
12 0
13 0
14 0
15 0
16 0
17 0
18 0
19 0
20 0
21 0
22 0
23 0
24 0
25 0
26 0
27 0
28 0
29 0
30 0
31 0
32 0
33 0
34 0
35 0
36 0
37 0
38 0
39 0
40 0
41 0
42 0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1 6 11 16 21 26
Actual Forecast
Period
Weighted Moving Average
As opposed to the Simple Moving Average which gives equal weight to each of the preceding values,
the 3-period Weighted Moving Average allows you to give a higher or lower weight to each of the three
previous periods. The number of periods is fixed at 3, and the sum of the weights must equal 1. If all
the weights are equal (for the 3-period 0.33) this is the same as a 3 period moving average. A 2
4-period or n-period weighted moving average would follow the same logic.

3 2 1
3 t 3 2 t 2 1 t 1 t
1 - t
t
w w w 1
A w A w A w F
Weight = w
period) previous the (or 1 - t period in demand Actual = A
) period coming the (or t period for Forecast = F
+ + =
+ + =

Average Moving Weighted Period - 3
43 0
44 0
45 0
46 0
47 0
48 0
49 0
50 0
51 0
52 0
53 0
54 0
55 0
56 0
57 0
58 0
59 0
60 0
26 31 36 41 46 51 56
Period
Weighted Moving Average
which gives equal weight to each of the preceding values,
allows you to give a higher or lower weight to each of the three
previous periods. The number of periods is fixed at 3, and the sum of the weights must equal 1. If all
period 0.33) this is the same as a 3 period moving average. A 2-period,
period weighted moving average would follow the same logic.
3 2 1
3 t 3 2 t 2 1 t 1 t
1 - t
t
w w w 1
A w A w A w F
Weight = w
period) previous the (or 1 - t period in demand Actual = A
) period coming the (or t period for Forecast = F
+ + =
+ + =

Average Moving Weighted Period - 3
Single Exponential Smoothing
0.5
MAD #DIV/0!
MSE 0
Period Actual Forecast Error
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1 6 11 16 21 26
Actual Forecast
Period
Single Exponential Smoothing
The problem with the previous two methods, Simple Moving Average
that a large amount of historical data is required. With
data is eliminated once a new piece has been added. The forecast is calculated by using the previous
forecast, as well as the previous actual value with a weighting or smoothing factor, alpha. Alpha can
never to be greater than 1 and higher values of alpha put more weight on the most recent periods. Note
on the equations below the similarity to the 3-period weighted moving average.


( )
( )
( ) ( ) | |
( ) ( ) ( ) { } | |
( ) | | ( ) ( ) | |
( ) 3 t
3
3 t 2 t 1 t t
3 t 3 t 2 t 1 t t
t 2 t
2 t 2 t 1 t t
t 1 t
2 t 2 t 1 t
1 t 1 t t
1 - t
1 - t
t
F *
1
A * * 1 * 1 A * * 1 A * F
g simplifyin
F * 1 A * * 1 A * * 1 A * F
F for equation the nto i F ng substituti
F * 1 A * * 1 A * F
F for equation the nto i F ng substituti
F * 1 A * F
and
F * 1 A * F
constant Smoothing =
period) previous the (or 1 - t period in demand Actual = A
period) previous the (or 1 - t period for Forecast = F
) period coming the (or t period for Forecast = F

+ + + =
+ + + =
+ + =
+ =
+ =
o
Smoothing l Exponentia Simple
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
26 31 36 41 46 51 56
Period
Single Exponential Smoothing
Simple Moving Average and Weighted Moving Average is
that a large amount of historical data is required. With Single Exponential Smoothing the oldest piece of
data is eliminated once a new piece has been added. The forecast is calculated by using the previous
forecast, as well as the previous actual value with a weighting or smoothing factor, alpha. Alpha can
never to be greater than 1 and higher values of alpha put more weight on the most recent periods. Note
-period weighted moving average.
( )
( )
( ) ( ) | |
( ) ( ) ( ) { } | |
( ) | | ( ) ( ) | |
( ) 3 t
3
3 t 2 t 1 t t
3 t 3 t 2 t 1 t t
t 2 t
2 t 2 t 1 t t
t 1 t
2 t 2 t 1 t
1 t 1 t t
1 - t
1 - t
t
F *
1
A * * 1 * 1 A * * 1 A * F
g simplifyin
F * 1 A * * 1 A * * 1 A * F
F for equation the nto i F ng substituti
F * 1 A * * 1 A * F
F for equation the nto i F ng substituti
F * 1 A * F
and
F * 1 A * F
constant Smoothing =
period) previous the (or 1 - t period in demand Actual = A
period) previous the (or 1 - t period for Forecast = F
) period coming the (or t period for Forecast = F

+ + + =
+ + + =
+ + =
+ =
+ =
o
Smoothing l Exponentia Simple
Trend Adjusted Exponential Smoothing

MAD #DIV/0!
MSE #DIV/0!
Period Actual Level Trend Forecast Error
1 0 #DIV/0!
2 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
3 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
4 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
5 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
6 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
7 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
8 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
9 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
10 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
11 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
12 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
13 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
14 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
15 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
16 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
17 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
18 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
19 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
20 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
21 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
22 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
23 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
24 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
25 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
26 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
27 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
28 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
29 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
30 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
31 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
32 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
33 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
34 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
35 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
36 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
37 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
38 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
39 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
40 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
41 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
42 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1 6 11 16
Actual Forecast
Trend Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
Single Exponential Smoothing
reasonably stable mean (no trend or consistent pattern of growth or decline). If
the data contains a trend, the
should be used.

Trend Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
except that two components must be updated each period: level and trend. The
level is a smoothed estimate of the value of the data at the end of each period.
The trend is a smoothed estimate of average growth at the end of each period.
Again, the weighting or smoothing factors, alpha and delta can never exceed 1
and higher values put more weight on more recent time periods.

Trend adjusted exponential smoothing

( )
( )
1 t 1 t 1 t t
1 t 1 t 1 t t
t t t
1 - t
1 - t
t
t
t
FIT F T T
FIT A FIT F
T F FIT
delta constant Smoothing =
alpha constant Smoothing =
period prior the for demand actual The = A
period prior the for made trend including forecast The = FIT
t period for trend including forecast The = FIT
t period for trend smoothed lly exponentia The = T
t period for forecast smoothed lly exponentia The = F


+ =
+ =
+ =
43 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
44 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
45 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
46 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
47 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
48 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
49 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
50 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
51 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
52 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
53 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
54 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
55 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
56 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
57 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
58 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
59 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
60 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56
Forecast
Period
Trend Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
Single Exponential Smoothing assumes that the data fluctuate around a
reasonably stable mean (no trend or consistent pattern of growth or decline). If
the data contains a trend, the Trend Adjusted Exponential Smoothing model
Trend Adjusted Exponential Smoothing works much like simple smoothing
except that two components must be updated each period: level and trend. The
level is a smoothed estimate of the value of the data at the end of each period.
The trend is a smoothed estimate of average growth at the end of each period.
Again, the weighting or smoothing factors, alpha and delta can never exceed 1
and higher values put more weight on more recent time periods.
Trend adjusted exponential smoothing
( )
( )
1 t 1 t 1 t t
1 t 1 t 1 t t
t t t
1 - t
1 - t
t
t
t
FIT F T T
FIT A FIT F
T F FIT
delta constant Smoothing =
alpha constant Smoothing =
period prior the for demand actual The = A
period prior the for made trend including forecast The = FIT
t period for trend including forecast The = FIT
t period for trend smoothed lly exponentia The = T
t period for forecast smoothed lly exponentia The = F


+ =
+ =
+ =
Trend and Seasonal Effects
Level Trend Season

MAD 66375 Initial Seasonal Values
MSE ######## 0.735983 1.032181 1.019551 1.212285
Period Actual Level Trend Season Forecast Error
1 181532 149744 60376 1.21
2 254590 210119 60376 1.02 214227 40362
3 251475 270495 60376 1.03 279200 27725
4 299013 330871 60376 0.74 243515 55498
5 332386 391246 60376 1.21 474302 141916
6 460452
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
1 6
Actual
The Trend and Seasonal
Exponential Smoothing
adjustment for seasonality. This template is a quarterly model, where the number of
seasons is set to 4. There are three smoothing constants associated with this model.
Alpha is the smoothing constant for the basic level, delta smoothes the trend, and
gamma smoothes the seasonal index. Again, the weighting or smoothing factors,
alpha, delta and gamma can never exceed 1 and higher values put more weight on
more recent time periods.
























Note: For initial calculations, when St
Seasonal Values are used. The calculation for these is done further down on the
page, starting on cell A73.
gamma constant Smoothing =
delta constant Smoothing =
alpha constant Smoothing =
t) (time demand Current = A
periods) 4 = ago year (1 season previous from value Seasonal = S
period previous from value Seasonal = S
value seasonal Current = S
period previous from value Trend = T
value trend Current = T
period previous from value Level = L
value level Current = L
period current for Forecast = F
t
4 - t
1 - t
t
1 - t
t
1 - t
t
t

o
o
Effects Seasonal and Trend with Model s Winter'
( )( )
( ) ( )
( )
( )
4 t 1 t 1 t t
1 t
t
t
t
1 t 1 t t t
1 t 1 t
4 t
t
t
S T L F
S 1
L
A
S
T 1 L L T
T L 1
S
A
L

+ =
+ =
+ =
+ +

=
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
This area is used to compute 'initial seasonal values' due to their complexity
Number of full years (set of 4 seasons) 1
Period
Year Average Year 1 2 3 4
1 246652.3 1 0.735983 1.032181 1.019551 1.2123
2 0 2 0 0 0 0
3 0 3 0 0 0 0
4 0 4 0 0 0 0
5 0 5 0 0 0 0
6 0 6 0 0 0 0
7 0 7 0 0 0 0
8 0 8 0 0 0 0
9 0 9 0 0 0 0
10 0 10 0 0 0 0
11 0 11 0 0 0 0
12 0 12 0 0 0 0
13 0 13 0 0 0 0
14 0 14 0 0 0 0
15 0 15 0 0 0 0
6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56
Actual Forecast
Period
Trend and Seasonal Effects
Trend and Seasonal forecasting model is an extension of the Trend Adjusted
Exponential Smoothing model. In addition to a trend, the model also adds a smoothed
adjustment for seasonality. This template is a quarterly model, where the number of
seasons is set to 4. There are three smoothing constants associated with this model.
Alpha is the smoothing constant for the basic level, delta smoothes the trend, and
gamma smoothes the seasonal index. Again, the weighting or smoothing factors,
alpha, delta and gamma can never exceed 1 and higher values put more weight on
more recent time periods.
Note: For initial calculations, when St-4 has not yet been calculated, the Initial
Seasonal Values are used. The calculation for these is done further down on the
page, starting on cell A73.
gamma constant Smoothing =
delta constant Smoothing =
alpha constant Smoothing =
t) (time demand Current = A
periods) 4 = ago year (1 season previous from value Seasonal = S
period previous from value Seasonal = S
value seasonal Current = S
period previous from value Trend = T
value trend Current = T
period previous from value Level = L
value level Current = L
period current for Forecast = F
t
4 - t
1 - t
t
1 - t
t
1 - t
t
t

o
o
Effects Seasonal and Trend with Model s Winter'
( )( )
( ) ( )
( )
( )
4 t 1 t 1 t t
1 t
t
t
t
1 t 1 t t t
1 t 1 t
4 t
t
t
S T L F
S 1
L
A
S
T 1 L L T
T L 1
S
A
L

+ =
+ =
+ =
+ +

=
Linear Trend
Intercept Slope
159959.67 34613.11
MAD 620
MSE 769311
Period Actual Forecast Error
1 181532 194573
2 254589.80 229186
3 251474.60 263799
4 ##### 298412 601
5 332386.00 333025 639
6 367638
7 402251
8 436865
9 471478
10 506091
11 540704
12 575317
13 609930
14 644543
15 679156
16 713769
17 748383
18 782996
19 817609
20 852222
21 886835
22 921448
23 956061
24 990674
25 1025287
26 1059901
27 1094514
28 1129127
29 1163740
30 1198353
31 1232966
32 1267579
33 1302192
34 1336805
35 1371419
36 1406032
37 1440645
38 1475258
39 1509871
40 1544484
41 1579097
42 1613710
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
1 6 11 16 21 26
Actual Forecast
Period
Linear Trend
The Linear Trend method can be used if the data contains a trend (consistent pattern of growth or
decline). The forecasts are calculated using least squares regression to fit a straight line to the data.
This line can be extrapolated into the future to obtain the forecast.

Linear Trend






( )( )
( )
t m A b
t t
A A t t
m
periods time of Average = t
period Time = t
demands actual all of Average = A
demand Actual = A
b and m find To
b mt F
period) time first the for 1 (t interest of period Time = t
Slope = m
intercept Y = b
t period for Forecast = F
2
t
t
=


=
+ =
=

43 1648323
44 1682937
45 1717550
46 1752163
47 1786776
48 1821389
49 1856002
50 1890615
51 1925228
52 1959841
53 1994455
54 2029068
55 2063681
56 2098294
57 2132907
58 2167520
59 2202133
60 2236746
26 31 36 41 46 51 56
Period
Linear Trend
method can be used if the data contains a trend (consistent pattern of growth or
decline). The forecasts are calculated using least squares regression to fit a straight line to the data.
This line can be extrapolated into the future to obtain the forecast.
( )( )
( )
t m A b
t t
A A t t
m
periods time of Average = t
period Time = t
demands actual all of Average = A
demand Actual = A
b and m find To
b mt F
period) time first the for 1 (t interest of period Time = t
Slope = m
intercept Y = b
t period for Forecast = F
2
t
t
=


=
+ =
=