Where next?

Urban regeneration and disaster recovery provide

opportunities to plan for tomorrow.

We are bombarded with statistics about the future of cities these days, as fast as the cities
themselves are growing. More than half of the world's population now live in a city, with the
number of urban residents increasing by 60 million each year that's two new citizens every
second. It is a relentless rate of expansion that will see over 70% of the global population living
in urban areas by 2050, requiring the equivalent of a new city of 1 million built every five days
between now and then.
These astounding figures make impressive headlines for reports on urbanization, to be
brought up at conferences across the globe, but such statistics are meaningless without asking
what these cities will be like, who they are for, and how they are being made.

With the fastest urban growth happening in developing countries, how far are the new city
visions in line with the real needs of most people on the ground? Driven by local politicians and
global investors eager to capitalize on the next frontiers, fantastical satellite cities are popping
up across Africa and Asia, Russia and the Middle East. But do these specialized enclaves of
science and technology, leisure and luxury, risk becoming ghost towns, diverting funds away
from meeting the basic needs of the countries' much poorer urban populations?

As cites expand ever upwards and outwards, whether hyper-dense or dispersed and
sprawling, how will transport solutions adapt to changing patterns of movement? Are elevated
cycle ways the answer to travelling, or will they delay fixing problems on the ground and
distract from the bigger picture of creating integrated streets for everyone? Will self-driving cars
help to ease congestion and reduce accidents, or merely make drivers dumber and more sel-
satisfied?

With urban growth outpacing our capacity to plan, the impacts of less predictable forces are
also multiplied beyond all control. Facing threats of flooding and earthquakes, storms and
tsunamis, the resilience of cities is tested to the limit, with any flaws in zoning and construction
aggravating risks. How far can such extreme conditions be reduced, with protective
infrastructure and disaster management, and should the way we live always be determined by
the worst-case scenario? With flooding becoming an increasingly regular event, should we be
retreating behind bigger barriers and steeper levees, or learning to adapt our cities to work with,
rather than against, these conditions?

The American urban theorist Jane Jacobs wrote in 1961, "Cities have the ability of
providing something for everybody, only because, and only when, they are created by
everybody."


Summary of the article: Where next? Urban regeneration and disaster recovery provide
opportunities to plan for tomorrow, by Oliver Wainwright, architecture and design critic.