31/08/14

1
31/08/14 1
W|nd & nydro ower
1
sL
Lo 6
Lh
of SepLember, 2014
SusLalnablllLy lnsuLuLe, Lynedoch

Secuon 1 - Wlnd ln18CuuC1lCn

Mr A|e[andro Lup|on
8esearcher and Senlor LecLurer
C8SLS - unlverslLy of SLellenbosch



1he CenLre for 8enewable and SusLalnable Lnergy SLudles was esLabllshed ln 2007 Lo faclllLaLe and sumulaLe
acuvlues ln renewable energy sLudy and research aL SLellenbosch unlverslLy.

1he ueparLmenL of Sclence and 1echnology has been fundlng Lhe 8enewable and SusLalnable Lnergy (8SL) Pub
aL SLellenbosch unlverslLy slnce lLs esLabllshmenL ln AugusL 2006. 1he alms of Lhe 8SL Pub are Lo develop
human caplLal, deepen knowledge, and sumulaLe lnnovauon and enLerprlse ln Lhe eld of 8SL. CurrenLly Lhe
uS1 ls sull sponsorlng Lhe work of Lhe CenLre wlLh an annual granL admlnlsLraLed by Lhe nauonal 8esearch
loundauon.

SLellenbosch unlverslLy was deslgnaLed as Lhe Speclallsauon CenLre ln 8enewable Lnergy 1echnology as parL of
Lhe Lskom ower lanL Lnglneerlng lnsuLuLe (LLl). 1he research and Leachlng acuvlues sponsored by Lskom
focus on concenLraung solar power (CS) and wlnd energy and also lncludes Lhe Lskom Chalr ln ConcenLraung
Solar ower.

1he Sasol 1echnology group sponsored Lhe new faclllues for Lhe CenLre for 8enewable and SusLalnable Lnergy
SLudles as well as Lhe work and faclllues of Lhe Solar 1hermal Lnergy 8esearch Croup aL SLellenbosch unlverslLy.

3
8eferences (onllne)
Wlnd Lnergy - 1he lacLs (Lxecuuve Summary) www.wloJ-eoetqy-tbe-
focts.otq
Clobal Wlnd Lnergy Councll (CWLC) www.qwec.oet
Clobal Wlnd 8eporL - Annual MarkeL updaLe
lnLeracuve map of world wlnd capaclLy
www.mop.teo21.oet / www.qwec.oet/qlobol-fqotes/lotetocuve-mop/
World Wlnd Lnergy Assoclauon : www.wwlndea.org
Aerodynamlcs of wlnd Lurblnes. Marun C.L. Pansen / lS8n:
978-1-84407-438-9
lLA Wlnd and CuLlook
www.leowloJ.otq
www.wotlJeoetqyootlook.otq/tesootces/foctsbeets/
8enewable Lnergy World www.teoewobleeoetqywotlJ.com
Luropean Wlnd Lnergy Assoclauon - ubllcauons www.eweo.otq
8Ln21 www.teo21.oet
8enewable Lnergy www.teoewobleeoetqymoqozloe.com/leo/eo
31/08/14
2
Umoya wind farm;
Hopefield Western Cape: 66MW (37x 1.8MW) VESTAS V100

Start of construction: end of 2012
On time, within budget
Fully operational : February 2014


Iebruary 2014
August 2013
SLC1ICN 1: IN1kCDUC1ICN
Course Admln
ShorL hlsLorlcal revlew
Clobal energy
Wlnd energy Loday, globally
Wlnd energy ln SouLh Afrlca
oLenual
SlLe vlslL (aernoon)
3
Coals
wbot Jo yoo woot to qet oot of tbls cootse?
6
31/08/14
3
key CuLcomes:
A sLudenL who has successfully compleLed Lhls module ls able Lo:
Lngage ln lnformed debaLe on Lhe beneLs and challenges of wlnd lnLegrauon.
8e lnformed of currenL sLaLe of Lhe lndusLry
uescrlbe Lhe characLerlsucs of Lhe wlnd resource
ulscuss Lhe reasons for Lhe Lyplcal wlnd Lurblne geomeLry
uescrlbe, ln a funcuonal sense, Lhe Lechnlcal aspecLs of
1urblne sysLem deslgn
Wlnd sysLem deslgn
Wlnd farm developmenL
uescrlbe Lhe sLages and ume frames of Lhe pro[ecL developmenL cycle for
semng up a wlnd energy faclllLy
undersLand Lhe key analyucal sLeps for feaslblllLy
undersLand key aspecLs of economlc and developmenL poLenual.
ulscuss Lhe eecL of wlnd Lurblne sysLems on socleLy and Lhe envlronmenL.
know where Lo go nexL Lo geL more deLalled Lool
7
ShorL PlsLorlcal revlew
Parness power of wlnd, Lhousand years ago:
propulslon of shlps uslng salls
Peron's wlnd powered organ (100 Au)
wlndmllls Lo grlnd graln or pump waLer
20
Lh
CenLury wlndmllls become wlnd Lurblne Lo produce
elecLrlclLy (1
sL
uC Lhen AC)
ulesel englne, sLeam Lurblne Lake over elecLrlcal
producuon
Scarce of fuel (1
sL
,2
nd
world war, 1973's oll crlsls) !
wlnd power ourlsh agaln
S|nce 90's w|nd |ndustry grow 20]year
8
1he rsL elecLrlclLy-generaung wlnd
Lurblne: bauery charglng machlne
lnsLalled ln !uly 1887 by Scomsh
academlc !ames 8lyLh
CLuSL8 1937: base Lechnology of Lhe uanlsh
concepL", robusL and slmple deslgn.
Callfornla wlnd rush (1ax credlL) 1982-1986: Lens
of Lhousand of vesLas 13-33 lnsLalled ln 4 years.
llrsL sLandards, lndusLrlallsauon and economy of
scale
1
sL
breakLhrough for grld connecuon: uenmark as
markeL leader ln wlnd energy.
LnL8CCn (L-40) as Lhe rsL Lo change Lhe uanlsh
concepL Lo a new one:
varlable speed
lLch conLrolled
ulrecL drlve
ac-dc-ac converslon

31/08/14 9
ShorL PlsLorlcal revlew: |andmarks
vesLas 13-33
Lnercon L-40
Callfornla wlnd rush 1982-1986
31/08/14
4
erformance of rsL large scale
demonsLrauon W1

31/08/14 10
CLC8AL S1A1uS
ower - Lnergy unlLs ..
lundamenLal unlLs SI [lnLernauonal sysLem] 1987:
meLre [m], kllogram [kg], second [s], ampere [A], kelvln [k], candela
[cd] , mol [mo|]

CWLk LNLkG
Wau [W] = !s
-1
[Ws], [Wh] = 3 600 I

Porsepower [hp]= 736W Calorles [ca|]= 4 183 I
... 1on Cll equ.[toe]=4,1910
10
I
1on Coal equ.[tce] = 2,910
10
I
LlecLron volL [eV] = 1,60210
-19
!
1 L[ (Lxa!oule) = 10
18
[oules = 277,8 1Wh = 23.88 Mllllon
Lonnes of oll equlvalenL (MLoe)
12
31/08/14
3
Clobal SLausucs
Clobal Lnergy sysLem :
kesotqeoce lo oll & qos ptoJocuoo lo some cooottles (u5A, lot. Am., )
ketteot ftom oocleot lo some otbets (Cetmooy, Iopoo)
5lqos of locteosloq pollcy focos oo eoetqy e[cleocy .Lhe cheapesL kWh ls
Lhe one noL consumed.

All-ume hlgh oll prlces acung as brake on global economy :
ulvetqeoce lo oototol qos ptlces o[ecuoq otope (wltb ptlces 5-umes u5
levels) ooJ Aslo (8-umes)

SympLoms of an unsusLalnable energy sysLem perslsL:
lossll foel sobslJles op olmost J0X to 552J blllloo lo 2011, leJ by MNA
cO2 emlssloos ot tecotJ blqb, wblle teoewobles loJostty ooJet sttolo
uesplte oew lotetoouoool e[otts, 1.J blllloo people sull lock electtlclty
8ef: lLA world energy ouLlook 2012
13
Lnergy markeLs !"##$% '()% *)+),*),-.
- 8e aware of d|erence between kIMAk LNLkG SUL and
LLLC1kICI1 GLNLkA1ICN
14
8ef: lLA 2013 energy sLaL.
LLLC1kICI1 GLNLkA1ICN
13
8ef: lLA 2013 energy sLaL.
31/08/14
6
Lnergy markeLs, demand evoluuon and Lrend
16
8ef: CCuL/lLA 2012
ower sh|h to emerg|ng econom|es
- LLLC18lCl1? CLnL8A1lCn
17
8ef: CCuL/lLA 2012
WaLer use
18
8ef: CCuL/lLA 2012
31/08/14
7
Wlnu CLC8AL S1A1uS
nbrs households powered by one 6MW Lurblne_"
Wlnd world employees(2011) ________________"
of people ln favour of Wlnd (Lu) ___________"
MonLhs Lo bulld 10MW wlnd farm ____________"
8oLor dlameLer [m] of AlsLom Pallade (6MW)__"
of world elecLrlclLy prod. by Wlnd 2012______"
of expecLed world elecL. prod. by Wlnd 2020_"
rpm wlnd Lurblne roLor (+-2.3MW) ___________"
number of parL ln W1(Wlnd 1urblnes)________"
nbrs W1 erecLed world ln 2011 _______________"
nbrs W1 splnnlng around Lhe world ln 2012____"
LlecL. consumpuon by Wlnd uenmark 2012__"
LoLal LlecL. ConsumpL. 6nov.11. 2am Spaln___"
new wlnd [obs creaLed ln 2012 ln 8razll _______"

o 670 000
o 2
o 130
o 13-20
o 8 000
o 39.6
o 3 300
o 223 000
o 13 000
o 3
o 89
o 23 640
o 8-12
o 30
20
Wlnd Clobal SLausucs for 2012-2013
- new capaclLy lnsLalled ln 2013: 33,3 CW
1
(44,8 CW 2012)
26 decrease ln raLe of lnsLallauon (+10 ln 2011)
lnvesLmenLs of over $70bn per year

- 1oLal wlnd capaclLy: 318,1 CW
1
(282,3CW 2012)
13 lncrease ln cumulauve capaclLy (lowesL ln decade, 20 ln
2011)
4 Wlnd peneLrauon ln elecLrlclLy supply (2,6 2012)

- Share of world elec demand
CapaclLy aL end 2013 approx 640 1Wh/y, 4
3

(up from 3 ln 2012 and 2,1 ln 2011)
2

- 670 000 people employed worldwlde ln 2011, dlrecL &
lndlrecL

1. CWLC Clobal Wlnd 2013 8eporL
2. 8LWMay 2013
3. WWLA, 2013
21
31/08/14
8
2013: 318 GW (+- 130GW for PV)
hup://www.gwec.neL/
2013 Cumulative Capacity:
China: 91 GW
USA: 61 GW
Germany: 34 GW

China accounts for 45% of all
NEW Wind Projects in 2013

8ef. : hup://www.gwec.neL/
Wlnd Clobal CrowLh
24
Agaln a record ln new lnsLalled capaclLy buL .
CWLC 2013 8eporL: hup://www.gwec.neL
31/08/14
9
World markeL growLh (markeL vlLallLy)
23
8ef: World Wlnd Lnergy Assoclauon, Annual reporL 2013
. lowesL worldwlde growLh raLe ln almosL 2 decades
(lnsLalled/cumulaLed).
Lurope/Lu
26
CWLC 2012 8eporL: hup://www.gwec.neL
LWLA annual sLaL 2012
CounLrles wlLh hlgh wlnd shares: uenmark 34 Spaln 21 (wlnd ls
blggesL source)
orLugal > 20 lreland > 16
Cermany 9
Lu achleved 21 LargeL seL ln Lhe Lu dlrecuve 77/2002/LC for Lhe end of
2010 by generaung 21 from renewable sources ln 2010 (decrease of
demand !)
CuL of all new capaclLy ln 2012:
Solar v: 37 (46.7 ln 2011)
Cas: 23 (21.6 ln 2011)
Wlnd: 26.3 (21.4 ln 2011)
nuclear, blomass, wasLe, geoLhermal, ocean: <1
uecommlssloned: 6 300 MW nuclear (2012), 6 000MW fueloll (2012/13)
Cshore wlnd power large conLrlbuuon:
- 3 323 MW 1oLal ln 2011
- 4 377 MW 1oLal ln 2012 (1 822 LoL MW uk)
- 1 367 MW more ln 2013 (Cshore record)
Lu 2012/ 2013 new lnsLalled
and decommlssloned
27
8ef.: LWLA Wlnd ln power, 2013 Luropean sLaL.
31/08/14
10
Lurope 2013
Added 10 900 MW (12 744 MW 2012), LoLal capaclLy: 117 300
MW (1]3 of wor|d tota|)
1oLal lnsLalled wlnd aL end 2013 expecLed Lo produce
237 1Wh/yr, 7,8 of Lu consumpuon
230 1Wh/ year ln 2012, 7 of Lu consumpuon
Cermany
lnsLalled mosL: 3 238 MW (2 439 ln 2012) new wlnd
Lu leader ln LoLal capaclLy: 33 730 MW
7.7 elecLrlclLy from wlnd (20 elecLrlclLy renewable)
Some sLaLes geL >40 from wlnd, Saxony-AnhalL 32, ln
2010, 48 ln 2011
28
8Ll: -LWLA annual reporL
-CWLC facLs
29
World reglons
CWLC 2013 8eporL: hup://www.gwec.neL
30
CWLC 2013 8eporL: hup://www.gwec.neL
31/08/14
11
2013 Cumulative Capacity:
China: 91 GW
USA: 61 GW
Germany: 34 GW

China accounts for 45% of all
NEW Wind Projects in 2013

8ef. : hup://www.gwec.neL/
32
lLA Wlnd Lnergy 2012 Annual 8eporL
WeaLherlng Lhe
llnanclal Crlsls

urlvers LhaL propelled Lhe
secLor for Lhe pasL years
are sull aL work
1
:
cllmaLe change
long Lerm carbon prlce
exposure
fuel-prlce rlsk
energy securlLy
fossll fuel depleuon
energy access.
2012 Lurnover ln wlnd:
$72bn
2
33
1. CWLC 2009 8eporL: hup://www.gwec.neL
2. WWLA, 2012
31/08/14
12
8ecovery
CosLs decreased
Supply chaln boulenecks eased
Lead umes reduced
ubllc secLor lnvesLmenL, masslve Aslan lnvesLmenL
new markeLs and Cshore pro[ecLs as oseL

1hreaLs:
ollucs and laws
Shale gas ? ..

34
ASlA
Asla: near 100 CW, 33 global capaclLy (18,2 CW new
ln 2013, 16.2 CW ln 2012)
Chlna: 73 share ln Asla. lndla 18.
CrowLh leader ln 2012 wlLh 43 of global markeL
ln response Lo Lhe nanclal crlsls, Chlnese governmenL
ldenued Lhe developmenL of wlnd energy as one of
key economlc growLh areas
1argeLs:
2013: 100 CW, 2020: 200 CW, 2030: 400 CW, 2030: 1000 CW
Challenge ln grld lnfrasLrucLure
33
WWLA an. 8ep. 2013 - CWLC 2013

Afrlca, 2013
36
CWLC 2013 8eporL: hup://www.gwec.neL WWLA, 2013, CWLC Clobal Wlnd 2013 8eporL 23

Al8lCA Anu 1PL MluuLL LAS1: awakenlng Lo Lhe opporLunlLy of
Lhelr enormous wlnd power poLenual.
CrowLh ln 2013: 90 MW lnsLalled across Lhe reglon. Cumulauve
LoLal of 1,233 MW.
Powever,Lhe SouLh Afrlcan markeL wlll Lake o ln 2014
CounLrles Lo waLch : LLhlopla, Morocco, kenya, !ordan, 1anzanla
and Saudl Arabla, among oLhers.
Afrlca's wlnd resource ls besL around Lhe coasLs and ln Lhe easLern
hlghlands
31/08/14
13
Afrlca, 2013
1oLal lnsLalled capaclLy ln 2013 : 1 233 MW, 0.4 of global cap.
MosL developmenL Lo daLe has been ln norLh.
88 of Lhe conunenL's LoLal wlnd lnsLallauons are ln
LgypL (330 MW)
Morocco (291 MW)
1unlsla (104 MW)
Cape verde (38 MW)
8eglons Lo waLch:
LLhlopla (171+ MW expecLed ln 2014)
kenya (300+ MW expecLed ln 2013)
1anzanla
MosL acuve counLry:
SouLh Afrlca (634+ MW end of 8ound l + 362MW round ll + 803MW round
lll: 1ota|= +-2000MW)
37
CWLC 2011, 2012 8eporL: hup://www.gwec.neL WWLA, 2012
WnA1'S NLk1: kCSLC1S
38
CrowLh lssues
lallouL from nanclal crlsls
uecrease of elecLrlclLy demand ln some reglons
Slowlng eecL ln 2009, reduced pro[ecLs onllne ln 2010
Lenders more rlsk averse
CovernmenL programs Lo lncrease nanclng, lncenuves
LlmlLed llne capaclLy and grld lnLegrauon lssues
SysLems deslgned for cenLrallsed bulk generauon
uullues developlng economlc & Lechnlcal sLraLegles: grld
supporL requlremenLs, sysLem upgrades, smarL grlds and super
grlds.
Long permlmng umes (lts oot jost 5ootb Aftlco!)
Wlnd power reglonal plans have helped
. belng addressed Lhrough nauonal research pro[ecLs,
lncenuve programs, and co-operauve research pro[ecLs of
lLA Wlnd and oLher groups
39
lLA Wlnd Lnergy 2009 Annual 8eporL
31/08/14
14
rospecLs and forecasLs
2011-12 Lu (world) recesslon and followed
ausLerlLy measures wlll aecL growLh and
lnvesugauon.
MarkeL, pollucal and regulaLory uncerLalnLy.
Asla leadlng new growLh
Clobally expecLed growLh :
Cshore wlll grow. Larger 4-6 MW Lurblnes Lo be
proven
Annual capaclLy growLh raLe expecLed Lo drop ln 2013
-11.6
Aer 2013: capaclLy growLh raLes expecLed Lo
sLablllze around 3-8 lncrease / year (uSA drop)
40
CWLC 2010, 2011, 2012
rospecLs for 2012-2016 & beyond
lncreaslng annual lnsLallauons
from 46 CW/yr Lo 39 CW/yr
brlnglng cumulauve capaclLy Lo 493 CW (2012:
282,387MW)
8ecovery ln annual lnsLalled capaclLy growLh
raLe predlcLed
LxpecLed Lo be able Lo meeL 9 of Lhe world's
elecLrlclLy demands by 2020
41
CWLC 2012 8eporL: hup://www.gwec.neL
81M ConsulL, World MarkeL updaLe 2010
lorecasL 2014 - 2018
42
CWLC 2013 8eporL: hup://www.gwec.neL
31/08/14
13
CWLC 2011, 2012,2013 8eporL: hup://www.gwec.neL
43
2
0
1
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s

f
o
r
e
c
a
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f
o
r

2
0
1
3
:

3
2
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.
4

M
W

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w

i
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t
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r
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:

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31/08/14 44
Cumulauve global renewables-based capaclLy
addluons and reuremenL by Lechnologles
1013-2033 Scenarlo
rospecLs and forecasLs
lLA world energy ouLlook 2013
31/08/14 43
8eal Cu growLh assumpuons by reglon
rospecLs and forecasLs
lLA world energy ouLlook 2013
31/08/14
16
46
rospecLs and forecasLs, ln CW
47
.
.from o|| to e|ectr|c
mob|||ty.
SCU1n AIkICA
48
31/08/14
17
ln SouLh Afrlca
locus on
8ulk generauon
CenLrallsed sysLems
Cheap coal (unul now?)
Markeung of cheap elecLrlclLy Lo hlgh consumpuon
lndusLrles: hlgh energy-lnLenslve economy
Coal generauon, focussed around coalelds ln norLh
Pv 1ransmlsslon neLwork requlred Lo dlsLrlbuLe vasL
dlsLances across counLry
CosLs of old planLs are amorused and currenL
elecLrlclLy prlces noL reecuve of new capaclLy cosL
PlsLory ln SouLh Afrlca
Wlnd-powered
borehole pumplng
(20,000 across Lhe
counLry) accounLed for
equlvalenL of 26 GWh]
annum

3.16 MW Lskom
lnsLalled kllpheuwel
LesL" pro[ecL, Aug
2002
3.2 MW uarllng
uemonsLrauon Wlnd
larm lnsLalled 2008
1.8 MW Coega luZ
2010
/0
3x Iuhr|nder IL 12S0 - 1.3MW
1x Vestas V90 1.8MW
SouLh Afrlca, Lskom
Lskom 2013 Annual reporL:
93 of SouLh Afrlcan LlecLrlclLy (2013)
1ota| generanon: 232 749 (237 289) GWh
Coal red 214 807 (218 210 )
Pydro 1 077 ( 1 904)
umped 3 006 (2 962 )
Cas 1 904 (709 )
nuclear 11 934 (13 302 )
Local l & Cogenerauon 3 316 (4,107 ) CWh
neL maxlmum capaclLy: 41 919 (41 647) MW
Wlnd capaclLy: 1 (2-12, 3-11) MW
eak uemand 33 323 (36 612) MW
[8eserve margln up from 3.6 ln 2008 Lo 20,0 (lncl. lmporLs, ulLSLL
groups )] (load sheddlng)
Lskom's planned wlnd developmenLs now lnclude:
Sere" LuLzvllle (SlLMLnS 46x2.3-108r.dlam) 100 MW
Aberdeen 200 MW
klelnzee 300 M

31
hup://overendsLudlo.co.za/onllne_reporLs/eskom_ar2013/dlvlslonal/Lable1.hLml
31/08/14
18
8ackground
ro[ecLs follow :
Wlndy slLes
1he grld
.and consumers (loads)
8Ll rogramme Lhrough l8 2010-2030: 3 rounds
ln LoLal 22 Wlnd pro[ecLs Lhus far (+-2000MW).
Why dlsLrlbuLed?
Llne capaclLy! (Lyplcally 33 kv 83-100 MW)
Spaual dlsLrlbuuon beuer for grld sLablllLy.
8LSLn1 Anu C1Ln1lAL
33
uevelopmenLs ln enabllng
envlronmenL for growLh
uML WhlLe aper, 2003: 10,000CWh 8L by 2013
uoL dralng new WhlLe aper
CWC WhlLe aper, 2008: 13 8L by 2013, oLher provlnclal LargeLs
8enewable Lnergy leed-ln 1arl (8Lll1):
2009: 81.23c/kWh
2011: 80.94/kWh
2011: 8Lll1 program cancelled
lSMC (lndependenL SysLem and MarkeL CperaLor) Lo be seL up ln
long Lerm
l81 (300 MW wlnd) (lnLegraLed resource plan for 20 years)
l82010 (9,200 MW by 2027)
8Ll (3723MW plan) launched Aug 2011, 3 wlndows
Small 8Ll launched 2012
bup.//www.eoetqy.qov.zo/lkl/2010/lkl2010.pJf

34
31/08/14
19
SAWLA
1rade and professlonal body
represenung Lhe wlnd
lndusLry ln SouLh Afrlca
Worklng Croups for
skllls developmenL
!!!"#$!%$"&'(")$

33
8enewable Lnergy l rocuremenL
rogram
uoL Lender for ower urchase AgreemenLs
8eleased Aug 2011
Lskom deslgnaLed as Lhe 8uyer
1ransparenL sysLem
3 bld daLes beLween 4 nov 2011 and 2016
1,830 MW wlnd power
osslble re-allocauon beLween Lechnologles
ro[ecLs max slze: 140MW
Compeuuve 70 prlce, 30 Lconomlc
uevelopmenL
k1.1S]kWh 8ound 1 , k0.89]kWh 8ound 2,
k0.74]kWh round 3 & local conLenL requlremenL
lncreased from 21.7 to 44

36
Umoya wind farm
Hopefield Western Cape 66MW (37x 1.8MW) VESTAS V100

Start of construction: end of 2012
Fully operational: February 2014


Iebruary 2014
August 2013
31/08/14
20
Iereys 8ay w|nd farm

Eastern Cape 138 MW (60x 2,3 MW) SIEMENS SWT 2.3

Start of construction: December 2012
Fully operational: May 2014

31/08/14 38
8Ll: referred 8ldders
1oLal allocauon : 1,830 MW
Wlndow 1: 633.99 MW
Many pro[ecLs bld aL Larl cap (k1.1S]kWh)
Wlndow 2: 362.40 MW (!une 2013)
referred pro[ecLs 80.800-80.973, avg: k0.897]kWh
rlces fall beLween 8n1 and 8n2: wlnd 20
Wlndows 3: 787.60 MW avg.: k0.74]kWh
rlces fall beLween 8n1 and 8n3: wlnd 40
Wlndow 4, submlsslon daLe 18 AugusL 2014
39
8Ll
resulLs of
Wlndows
1, 2 and 3
31/08/14 60
Source: Anton Lberhard
31/08/14
21
31/08/14 61
Wlndows 1, 2 and 3 prlces [8c/kWh]
Source: Anton Lberhard
lrom 8ound 1, uec. 2011, ull 8ound 3, nov. 2013, |n [ust 2 years:
8Ll ls well posluoned Lo caplLallze maln drlvers for prlces
falllng:
8lddlng compeuuon
uecllne of lnLernauonal prlces for 8L equlpmenL
Surplus ln manufacLurlng (slow down of Lu)
Lconomy of scale
8ound 1, 2 & 3 8Ll preferred 8|dder
31/08/14 62
kCUND 1 Status MW CLM
uassleskllp (commlssloned) 26,2 Slnovel
MeLroWlnd van SLadens (commlssloned) 26,2 Slnovel
Popeeld Wlnd larm (commlssloned) 63,4 vesLas
noblesfonLeln (sLarL comm.) 72,8 vesLas/CesLamp
8ed Cap kouga Wlnd larm- CysLer 8ay 77,6 nordex
uorper Wlnd larm (CompleLed) 97 nordex
!ereys 8ay (Commlssloned) 133,9 Slemens
Cookhouse Wlnd larm (CompleLed 31.03) 133 Sulzon
634 MW
kCUND 2 Status MW CLM
Couda Wlnd laclllLy (consLrucuon) 133,2 Acclona
Amakhala Lmoyenl (hase 1) LasLern C (consLrucuon) 137,9 nordex
1slLslkamma CpmmunlLy (consLrucuon) 94,8 vesLas
WesL CoasL 1 (consLrucuon) 90,8 vesLas
Waalnek (consLrucuon) 23,4 vesLas
Crassrldge (consLrucuon) 39,8 vesLas
Chaba (consLrucuon) 20,6 vesLas
S62,S MW
kCUND 3 Status MW CLM
ue Aar WLl hase 1 (prellmphase) 100 Cuodlan
ue Aar WLl hase 2 (prellmphase) 144 Cuodlan
khobab Wlnd larm (prellmphase) 140 ?
LoerlesfonLeln 2 (prellmphase) 140 ?
noupoorL Wlnd larm (prellmphase) 80 ?
Clbson 8ay Wlnd larm (prellmphase) 110 nordex
no[oll Wlnd larm (prellmphase) 89 ?
803 MW
8Ll: referred 8ldders
63
ro[ect Name r|mary Sponsor]Deve|oper S|ze (MW)
Wlndow 1
uassleskllp 8lo1herm Lnergy 26.2
kouga 8ed Cap 77.6
uorper 8alnmaker Lnergy ro[ecLs 97.0
MeLroWlnd van SLadens 8ublcepL (Ly) LLd (MeLroWlnd (Ly) LLd) 26.2
!ereys 8ay MalnsLream 8enewable ower SA 133.9
Cookhouse ACLu 8enewables 133.0
Popeeld umoya 63.4
noblesfonLeln SA8CL / CesLamp 72.8
Wlndow 2
WesL CoasL Cne Moyeng Lnergy 90.8
Waalnek lnnowlnd / Lul 23.3
1slLslkamma Cennergl 94.8
Amakhala Lmoyenl hase 1 Cennergl 137.9
Crassrldge lnnowlnd / Lul 39.8
Chaba lnnowlnd / Lul 20.6
Couda Acclona / Aveng 133.2
31/08/14
22
22 wlnd pro[ecLs ln round 1, 2 & 3
31/08/14 64
LsumaLes of poLenual
klllan Pagemann
1

MM3 modelled wlnd speeds
MalnsLream 8enewables
2

Assumlng no grld consLralnLs: 70,000 MW
SAWLA consensus: > 30,000 MW
63
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* /""#$6" J &#=8')6 AM@?T NK$ =(&(=C %6= 1$UM
1. Mesoscale Wlnd ALlas of SouLh Afrlca, klllan Pagemann, uC1, 2008
2. MalnsLream 8enewable ower Analysls, 2010: www.malnsLreamrp.com
80m helghL, 3km resoluuon wlnd aLlas from 31lL8, 2009
66
31/08/14
23
67
CL Carrad Passan, 2011
WASA, wlnd aLlas of SouLh Afrlca
re|eased May 2013, new vers|on March 2014
Wlnd ALlas pro[ecL
CSl8, SAnL8l, SAWS, CSAC (uC1),
8lsoe (u1u)
verlcauon wlLh Len 60m masLs.
Map avallable ln 2012: 3km resoluuon
WAs les
uaLa ln publlc domaln from masLs
slnce laLe 2010

lk uowolooJoble wAsl fles oolloe.
www.wosoptoject.lofo
68
lmage from 8lsoe, presenLauon 2010
Pahmann, A eL al, Wlnd Lnergy ulvlslon, 8ls u1u
SanlLy check
wbot coo yoo Jo wltb o wloJ mop?
wbot coo yoo Jo wltb someooe elses most
Joto?
69
31/08/14
24
SanlLy check
wbot coo yoo Jo wltb o wloJ mop?
8oslc ptospecuoq
lf ot blqb eoooqb tesolouoo.
wbeo opplleJ olooqslJe otbet tecbolcol, commetclol ooJ
soclo-eovltoomeotol coosttolots
wbot coo yoo Jo wltb someooe elses most Joto?
vollJote o wloJ mop
looq tetm oJjost yoot owo oo-slte Joto
+%,-.%' &/ -.%#% !,00 1$23 4&5' 6'&7%8- 2&' #51#9-5-%
/&' &2:#,-% ;$-$
70
oLenual capaclLy lndlcaLors
LsumaLes of poLenual by varlous parues vary
8Ll rogramme oversubscrlbed: 66 & 32
of MW bld were granLed ln Wlndow 1 & 2
respecuvely
Allocauon ln Lhe l82010: 9,200 MW
ro[ecLs reglsLered wlLh uLA (20,000 MW)
SAWLA's vlew: more Lhan 30,000 MW should
be LargeLed
71
l82010
Wlnd (MW)
2010 0
2011 0
2012 400
2013 800
2014 1200
2013 1600
2016 2000
2017 2400
2018 2800
2019 3200
2020 3600
2021 4000
2022 4400
2023 4800
2024 3600
2023 7200
2026 7600
2027 9200
2028 9200
2029 9200
2030 9200
72
8eadlng: elecLrlclLy fuLure - SA grld_anLon-eberhard.pdf
31/08/14
23
Lnd of LecLure. quesuons?
ConLacL ueLalls:
luplonsun.ac.za