12/9/2014 [Russia, US Still Competing for Influence in Middle East] - [VOA - Voice of America English News] - VOA News

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FILE - In this Dec. 19, 2006 file photo Vladimir Putin,
then Russian President, right, and his Syrian
counterpart Bashar Assad smile as they shake hands
in Moscow's Kremlin.
April 12, 2014
Russia, US Still Competing for Influence in
Middle East
by Mohamed Elshinnawi
Escalating tensions between the U.S. and Russia have
revived memories of an era many thought was long
gone, when Washington and Moscow competed for
influence in the Middle East during the Cold War.
These days, there are still competing interests, analysts
say, but not enough to fuel a renewed Cold War front.
Across the Middle East and North Africa, the Russian
footprint remains.
The most interesting case is Egypt where Russia has
stepped in with prospects of arms sale when the U.S.
has cut back on arms transfer to Egypt, said Mark
Katz, a professor of government and politics at George Mason University in Virginia.
With its support of the Syrian regime and its determination to prevent a Western military action
against the Syrian regime, Russia has re-emerged as a central player in the Middle East, analysts
say.

It is perceived by some analysts to have scored a tactical victory in global strategic diplomacy last
year by brokering a deal on the destruction of Syrias chemical weapons and preventing a U.S.
military intervention.
It's a huge international geostrategic win for [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, said Leon Aron,
director of Russian Studies at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. "Russia is on
equal footing now as a power in the Middle East."
Still, Katz said Russia knows it limits.
While Russia takes advantage whenever the U.S. has a disagreement with an Arab country, I am
not sure that Russia really wants the U.S. to leave the Middle East because Russia cant play the
same role that the U.S. does. he said.
While Putin is trying to make a mark strategically in Middle East areas vital to Russia, Bessma
Momani, an associate professor of international relations at Waterloo University, said that Putin
too hopes to carve himself a personal legacy.
His drive into the Middle East reflects his own interest to be remembered as the leader who
brought back Russian power and a sense of dignity to the Russians who felt it has been lacking
since the breakdown of the Soviet Union, she said.
But while tensions over Ukraine have evoked Cold War memories, Katz said he doubts there
would be a return to a cold war scenario between Russia and the U.S. in the Middle East.
Unlike the old days when the Soviet Union used to give arms to Arab allies whether they paid or
12/9/2014 [Russia, US Still Competing for Influence in Middle East] - [VOA - Voice of America English News] - VOA News
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not, Putin is seeking profit from arms sales and to increase Russian exports and Russian
investment in oil companies in the region, Katz said.
Russia has worked to regain oil contracts in Iraq and Russias Lukoil Company has won a number
of large oil contracts. In 2012, Moscow signed a $4 billion dollar arms deal with Iraq and 17
percent of Russian arms sales in recent years went to the United Arab Emirates.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 27 percent of Russian arms
exports between 2008 and 2012 went to the Middle East and North Africa.
Thirteen percent of that went to Syria where Russia maintains a naval base in the Syrian port of
Tartus.
But Russias ties to Syria are also causing some regional strain.

Russian relations with Saudi Arabia and most of the Arab Gulf States have worsened since the
onset of the Arab Spring in January 2011.

And Russias support of Iran and Tehrans stance over its controversial nuclear program is making
some Middle East leaders nervous, analysts say.

Saudis and Qataris are very unhappy with Russia for its support of Assads regime and the Gulf
countries have doubts about Russians intentions backing Irans nuclear ambitions. analyst Katz
said.
Experts believe that Russian involvement in Crimea will distract Moscows drive to gain influence
in the Middle East and that could open a window of opportunity for the U.S.
The Obama Administration should be more inclined to listen to the Saudis and the Qataris and all
parties who are arguing in favor of doing more for the Syrian opposition to change facts on the
ground. Katz said.

But Russia too could be viewed by Arab states as a form of balancing out U.S. interests and
policies in the Middle East that have drawn criticism in the Arab world.

The more interference the U.S. brings into the region, the more it helps Putins claim that the U.S.
is trying to take over the Middle East, Momani said.
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