Data Hub: Load Factors ..............................08 Data Hub: World Fleet Update ...............10 Trade Routes: Asia-South America ........14 Ports: APM Terminals ..................................20 UASC: THE STRATEGY BEHIND ITS FLEET EXPANSION P30 EVENTS TOC EUROPE: NEWS FROM THE EXHIBITION AND CONFERENCE P36 CARRIERS VALENCIA: SPANISH PORT FACES CRISIS OF OVERCAPACITY P32 MORE INSIGHT PORTS AIMING TO BE DIFFERENT SAFMARINE CHIEF EXECUTIVE THE GRANT DALY INTERVIEW July/August 2014 STABILITY appears to be an alien concept in the container shipping industry, which is once again going through another period of upheaval following Chinas rejection of the P3 Network between Maersk, Mediterranean Shipping Co and CMA CGM. Within a few weeks, the top two had teamed up to form the proposed 2M alliance, leaving CMA CGM to look for alternative options in an industry where lines have to work together to obtain the economies of scale and lower costs needed to overcome inadequate freight rates and generally unsatisfactory profits. Alastair Hills analysis of first-quarter results in this issue underlines just how poorly most carriers are performing. But one consolidation effort seems to be going smoothly, with Hapag-Lloyd and CSAV on course to complete the amalgamation of their container activities by November. In an interview with Containerisation International just days before he stepped down as chief executive, Michael Behrendt talks about how size matters these days, and why the German line will be looking for more merger and acquisition opportunities, probably in the Asia-Pacific region. United Arab Shipping Co has taken a different approach to growth, with a $2bn newbuilding programme that will include 18,000 teu ships, catapulting the line into the top 10. In this issue, UASC chief executive Jorn Hinge talks to Containerisation International editor Damian Brett about the companys investment strategy, the importance of timing, and having the confidence to order when market conditions are weak rather than strong. Editor-in-chief Containers Janet Porter (+44 (0) 20 7017 4617) janet.porter@informa.com Editor Damian Brett (+44 (0) 20 7017 5754) damian.brett@informa.com Reporter Linton Nightingale (+44 (0) 20 7551 9964) linton.nightingale@informa.com Sub-editing, design and production Heather Swift (+44 (0) 20 7017 3207) heather.swift@informa.com Felicity Monckton (+44 (0) 20 7551 9398) felicity.monckton@informa.com Advertising production Russell Borg (+44 (0) 20 7017 4495) russell.borg@informa.com Advertising sales Alan Hart (+44 (0) 20 3377 3820) alan.hart@informa.com Advertising sales manager Niraj Kapur (+44 (0) 20 3377 3868) niraj.kapur@informa.com Marketing manager Louise Challoner (+44 (0) 20 7017 5445) louise.challoner@informa.com Subscription sales William Purchase (+44 (0) 20 7551 9529) ci.subscriptions@informa.com Retentions Pauline Seymour (+44 (0) 20 7017 5063) pauline.seymour@informa.com Informa plc, Christchurch Court, 10-15 Newgate Street, London EC1A 7AZ Telephone: +44 20 7017 5000 Incorporating www.containershipping.com JULY/AUGUST2014 Data Hub: LoadFactors..............................08 Data Hub: WorldFleet Update...............10 TradeRoutes: Asia-SouthAmerica........14 Ports: APMTerminals..................................20 UASC: THESTRATEGY BEHINDITSFLEET EXPANSION P30 EVENTS TOCEUROPE: NEWS FROMTHEEXHIBITION ANDCONFERENCE P36 CARRIERS VALENCIA: SPANISH PORTFACESCRISIS OFOVERCAPACITY P32 MOREINSIGHT PORTS AIMING TO BE DIFFERENT SAFMARINE CHIEF EXECUTIVE THE GRANT DALY INTERVIEW an informa business Audited by ABC. 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Informa plc ISSN: 0010-7379 Looking at the latest developments as the P3 Network is rejected and 2M alliance is proposed KEEPING ABREAST OF THE NEWS Helping us keep abreast of everything that is happening in the industry is Linton Nightingale, who joined the Containerisation International editorial team a few weeks ago, bringing experience of the ports sector, which is also going through challenging times as carriers forge alliances with each other and adjust their schedules accordingly. In such a rapidly-changing marketplace, Containerisation International is able to put these developments into context and drill down behind the headlines. But we do not ignore day-to-day events which are covered in detail online. Be sure to keep in touch with all the latest news and analysis on www.containershipping.com. Janet Porter, editor-in-chief Join us on: Group name: Containerisation International @ContainersInt Subscription rates UK: 940/Europe EUR1,230 ROW: USD1,825 Subscriptions hotline: Tel: +44 (0) 20 7551 9529 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7017 7860 ci.subscriptions@informa.com Customer services: Tel: +44 (0) 20 7017 5540 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7017 4614 subscriptions@informa.com JULY/AUGUST 2014 www.containershipping.com CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL 01 PROFITABILITY PROSPECTS BLEAK Logic suggests weaker players should withdraw from the industry, but who? P16 MIXED FORTUNES FOR HONG KONG P3 collapse may be good for the port, but visits are being lost to other alliances P19 July/August 2014 GLOBAL STANDARDS FOR APM TERMINALS Bigger ships drive the need for higher productivity in strategy switch-up P20 CLOSING THE GAP How will new shareholders and a change of management inuence the culture and future direction of Hapag-Lloyd? P23 DATA HUB TRADE STATISTICS Double-digit growth in deepsea import volumes during the rst quarter means the only way is up P04 DATA HUB LOAD FACTORS Looking at the likely vessel utilisation rates for key European trade lanes P08 DATA HUB WORLD FLEET UPDATE Supply continues to grow ahead of demand as boxship eet capacity increases and inactive eet shrinks P10 TRADE ROUTE INTELLIGENCE Investment is still needed in South American ports to handle larger boxships coming on to the Asia-South America trade lane P14 20 We spend a lot of time with our people looking at how we do things, as well as what we do DATA HUB PORTS CARRIERS PORTS CARRIERS 02 CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL www.containershipping.com CONTENTS / JULY/AUGUST 2014 P26 GRANT DALY VIEW FROM THE BRIDGE LIVERPOOL IN FOCUS Containerisation International debate reveals industry interest in north-west port P34 LONDON CALLING The container industry descends on the UK capital for TOC Europe P36 NEWS ROUNDUP From P3 to 2M P41 Yildirim not surprised by P3 rejection P44 OOCL opens appeal process over Courtenay Allan manslaughter ruling P46 July/August 2014 MAKING A DIFFERENCE Safmarine chief executive Grant Daly talks about the importance of service dierentiation P26 THE ART OF ORDERING UASCs Jorge Hinge reveals the strategy behind the lines newbuilding investment programme P30 CRISIS IN VALENCIA The Spanish port is plagued by overcapacity and declining volumes P32 RISING RISK OF CYBERCRIME TT Club claims executive Mike Yarwood investigates the extent of cybercrime targeted at transport operators P47 PRAGMATISM WINS THE DAY New container weight verication measures are good news for all, says Chris Welsh of the Global Shippers Forum P48 BOX WORLD BRIEFING VIEW FROM THE BRIDGE CARRIERS PORTS EVENTS GUEST COLUMNISTS www.containershipping.com CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL 03 ISSUE 6/VOL 47 04 CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL www.containershipping.com July/August 2014 DATA HUB TRADE STATISTICS SUPPLY/DEMAND INDICATORS FOR CONTAINER SHIPPING DATA PROVIDED BY: IN THE April edition of Containerisation International, MDS Transmodal described the positive results observed in the last three months of 2013, explaining that they were mainly due to the early Chinese New Year. Usually, this period is accompanied by the pressure of sending out cargo before the factory closure for the holiday season, and in 2013 this pressure was worsened by the fear of rollovers experienced by shippers the previous year and the relatively short period between the Christmas and lunar holidays. In the same edition, MDST also questioned whether demand would have weakened after the Chinese New Year period and what level of demand shippers should have expected for the first quarter of 2014. On the basis of trade data available in mid-June, MDST estimates that exports from Asia (excluding intra-regional trade), after a remarkable growth of 8.3% in the fourth quarter of 2013 compared with the same three months the previous year, have grown by a lower rate of 5% in the first quarter of 2014 compared with the corresponding period of 2013, to 10.9m teu. Similarly, between the first three months of 2014 and the same period last year, exports from North America are estimated to have increased by 7.6% year on year. Considering the seasonality, this percentage appears even more encouraging. For the year ahead and based on the boosting performances observed in the last few quarters, MDST estimates that exports from North America might grow by some 6% in 2014. POSITIVE GROWTH: THE ONLY WAY IS UP? North Europe to North America Mediterranean to North America Leading indicators: headhaul from north Europe 000 teu. Italics = projected Commodity 2012 2013 2014 2015 11 Beverages 188 184 189 194 78 Road Vehicles 174 175 186 194 89 Miscellaneous Manufactures 169 190 203 215 74 General Industrial Machinery 163 156 148 154 62 Rubber Manufactures 129 136 134 152 Overall headhaul index 100 105 105 111 Overall backhaul index 100 103 112 118 Leading indicators: headhaul from Mediterranean 000 teu. Italics = projected Commodity 2012 2013 2014 2015 66 Mineral Manufactures 118 139 149 162 89 Miscellaneous Manufactures 64 76 88 93 82 Furniture 57 65 73 75 11 Beverages 51 52 47 49 05 Vegetables & Fruit, Nuts 50 52 58 60 Overall headhaul index 100 109 111 118 Overall backhaul index 100 106 105 111 North America to north Europe (000 teu) North America includes US, Canada, Mexico, Puerto Rico and Greenland Mediterranean North America (000 teu) Mediterranean includes North Africa and the Black Sea 1,757 1,085 2,478 905 1,812 3.1% 1,183 9% 2,592 4.6% 958 5.9% 1,972 8.8% 1,201 1.5% 2,601 0.3% 948 -1% 2,072 5.1% 1,285 7% 2,762 6.2% 1,007 6.2% 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 North Europe to North America (000 teu) North Europe includes northern Europe, Scandinavia and the Baltic North America to Mediterranean (000 teu) North America includes US, Canada, Mexico, Puerto Rico and Greenland Underlying westbound trade grew by 3% in 2013 and is expected to grow by some 9% in 2014. Underlying eastbound trade grew by 5% in 2013 and is expected to grow by 0.3% in 2014. Of the leading headhaul commodities, road vehicles and misc. manufactures show most growth. Annual headhaul growth from 2013 to 2017 is forecast at 4%. Service capacity westbound in the first quarter of 2014 is estimated to have remained stable compared to the first quarter of 2013. Y-o-Y in the first quarter of 2014, utilisation level is estimated to have improved marginally but freight rates and profits are estimated to have decreased (westbound). Underlying westbound trade grew by 9% in 2013 and is expected to grow by 2% in 2014. Underlying eastbound trade grew by 6% in 2013 and is expected to fall by 1% in 2014. Of the leading headhaul commodities, mineral manufactures shows most growth. Annual headhaul growth from 2013 to 2017 is forecast at 5%. Service capacity westbound in the first quarter of 2014 is estimated to have increased marginally compared to the first quarter of 2013. Y-o-Y in the first quarter of 2014, utilisation level is estimated to have improved marginally but freight rates and profits are estimated to have decreased (westbound). 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 Double-digit growth increase in deepsea import volumes during rst quarter Positive results are also estimated for the other dominant markets. For north European and Mediterranean exports, MDST estimates an increase of around 4% between the first quarter of 2013 and the same quarter this year. Positive growth rates are expected to be seen throughout the year and at a global level. MDST estimates that excluding intra-regional trade total loaded maritime volume might grow by some 5%-6% this year. The encouraging performances in trade data are estimated to have been accompanied by positive performance on the level of utilisation experienced by the shipping lines. For example, in its interim report for the first quarter of 2014, Maersk Line has reported improvements in both operational performances and utilisation levels. MDST estimates a reduction in the gap between supply and demand as shown in Graph A, which shows almost a balance in the first quarter of 2014 (2006 Q1 = 100). For this edition, MDST focuses on the European trade lanes, which have reported a double-digit growth increase in deepsea import volumes to north Europe and the Mediterranean during the first three months of 2014 compared with the same quarter last year. Trade from northern Europe to America is projected to grow by 0.3% by the end of 2014 and it is forecast to continue to grow at 6% per annum from 2014 to 2017. Specialised machinery trade grew but general industrial machinery fell. Traffic in the eastbound direction is expected to increase by 9% in 2014. North Europe to Mid-East Gulf & Indian subcontinent Mediterranean to Mid-East Gulf & Indian subcontinent North Europe to Mid-East Gulf & Indian subcontinent (000 teu) North Europe includes northern Europe, Scandinavia and the Baltic Asia to EC South America (000 teu) Mediterranean includes North Africa and the Black Sea 1,469 1,678 1,041 988 1,434 -2.4% 1,841 9.7% 1,079 3.7% 1,098 11.1% 1,584 10.5% 1,955 6.2% 1,248 15.7% 1,232 12.2% 1,699 7.3% 2,109 7.9% 1,329 6.5% 1,329 7.9% 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 Mid-East Gulf & Indian subcontinent to north Europe (000 teu) Mid-East Gulf & Indian Subcontinent includes Gulf states, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka & Bangladesh Mid-East Gulf & Indian subcontinent to Mediterranean (000 teu) Mid-East Gulf & Indian Subcontinent includes Gulf states, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka & Bangladesh Underlying eastbound trade fell by 2% in 2013 but is expected to grow by 11% in 2014. Underlying westbound trade grew by 4% in 2013 and is expected to grow by 16% in 2014. Of the leading headhaul commodities, food and paper show the most growth. Annual headhaul growth from 2013 to 2017 is forecast to be 7%. Service capacity eastbound in the first quarter of 2014 is estimated to have increased by 2% compared to the first quarter of 2013. Y-o-Y in the first quarter of 2014, utilisation level is estimated to have remained stable, freight rates are estimated to have declined but profits are estimated to have improved (eastbound). Underlying eastbound trade grew by almost 10% in 2013 and is expected to grow by 6% in 2014. Underlying westbound trade has been growing by 11% in 2013 and is expected to grow by 12% in 2014. Of the leading headhaul commodities, mineral manufactures, animal feeds and fruit & veg show the most growth. Annual headhaul growth from 2013 to 2017 is forecast at 7%. Service capacity eastbound in the first quarter of 2014 is estimated to have remained stable compared to the first quarter of 2013. Y-o-Y in the first quarter of 2014, utilisation level is estimated to have improved, but freight rates and profit are estimated to have declined (eastbound). 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 * Excludes intra-regional trade. ** CAGR Forecast. On the basis of trade data available in mid- July the consultancy projects the following changes in underlying demand along the main trade lanes for loaded containers for the forthcoming 12 months (4Q 2013 3Q 2014 as compared with the previous 12 months). For explanatory notes that define how data has been organised please see www.boxtradeintelligence.co.uk. 2011- 2012 2012- 2013 2013- 2017** North America to Europe -6% +4% +4.1% North America to Asia (Far East) +5% +8% +5.0% Asia (Far East) to Europe -3% +3% +5.3% Asia (Far East) to North America +6% +5% +3.4% Europe to Asia (Far East) +1% +2% +4.6% Europe to North America +6% +6% +4.7% North America exports * +2% +5% +4.9% North America imports * +6% +4% +3.7% Asia (Far East) Exports * +3% +5% +5.2% Asia (Far East) Imports * +7% +5% +5.2% Europe & Med Exports * +5% +4% +5.2% Europe & Med Imports * -2% +3% +4.9% Intra Asia (Far East) +6% +4% +4.9% Intra Europe +4% +6% +4.8% Global overview +5% +5% +5.2% Leading indicators: headhaul from north Europe 000 teu. Italics = projected Commodity 2012 2013 2014 2015 64 Paper & Paperboard 105 104 102 110 05 Vegetables & Fruit, Nuts 68 52 79 79 09 Miscellaneous Food Products 66 70 69 76 77 Electrical Machinery 60 55 58 63 28 Ores & Scrap 55 48 33 37 Overall headhaul index 105 104 102 110 Overall backhaul index 68 52 79 79 Leading indicators: headhaul from Mediterranean 000 teu. Italics = projected Commodity 2012 2013 2014 2015 08 Animal Feedingstuffs 285 325 279 351 66 Mineral Manufactures 174 182 171 189 05 Vegetables & Fruit, Nuts 167 181 189 191 27 Crude Fertilisers & Minerals 99 95 100 103 89 Miscellaneous Manufactures 67 72 70 74 Overall headhaul index 100 110 117 126 Overall backhaul index 100 111 125 134 Underlying unitised annual trade growth rates www.containershipping.com CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL 05 July/August 2014 DATA HUB TRADE STATISTICS 06 CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL www.containershipping.com July/August 2014 DATA HUB TRADE STATISTICS Trade from the Mediterranean to North America is projected to grow by 1.5% by the end of 2014, with all leading commodities rising. Growth from 2014 to 2017 is forecast at 6% per annum. Eastbound traffic is forecast to fall by 1% in 2014. Trade from northern Europe to the Gulf and Indian subcontinent is projected to grow by around 10.5% by the end of 2014, with paper and paperboard and food products following the trend, and is forecast to grow at the rate of 5% per year from 2014 to 2017. Trade from the Mediterranean to the Gulf and Indian sub-Continent is projected to grow by 6.2% by the end of 2014, led by animal feedstuffs and mineral manufactures. It is forecast to grow at the rate of 6% per annum from 2014 to 2017. Trade growth from northern Europe to East and Southern Africa is projected not to grow by the end of 2014. It is forecast to grow by 7% per annum from 2014 to 2017. Trade from northern Europe to Australasia is projected to grow by almost 7% by the end of 2014, being led by electrical machinery, and is forecast to grow by 5% annually from 2014 to 2017. For explanatory notes that define how data has been organised please see http://www.boxtradeintelligence.com/articles/company. North Europe to East & South Africa North Europe to Australasia & Oceania North Europe to E&S Africa (000 teu) North Europe includes northern Europe, Scandinavia and the Baltic North Europe to Australasia & Oceania (000 teu) North Europe includes northern Europe, Scandinavia and the Baltic 330 358 310 150 334 1.2% 354 -1.1% 291 -6.1% 136 -9.3% 334 0% 378 6.8% 275 -5.5% 124 -8.8% 362 8.4% 404 6.9% 265 -3.6% 133 7.3% 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 E&S Africa to north Europe (000 teu) E&S Africa includes East and South Africa Australasia & Oceania to north Europe (000 teu) Australasia & Oceania includes Australia, New Zealand and Pacific Islands Overall southbound trade grew by 1% in 2013 and is expected to be flat in 2014. Underlying northbound trade fell by 6% in 2013 and is expected to do the same in 2014. Of the leading headhaul commodities none show consistent growth. Annual headhaul growth from 2013 to 2017 is forecast at 6%. Service capacity southbound in the first quarter of 2014 is estimated to have increased by 8% compared to the first quarter of 2013. Y-o-Y in the first quarter of 2014, utilisation level, freight rates and profits are estimated to have declined (southbound). Overall southbound trade fell by 1% in 2013 and is expected to grow by 7% in 2013. Underlying northbound trade fell by 9% in 2013 and is expected to fall by 9% in 2014. Of the leading headhaul commodities, road vehicles, misc manufactures and paper show consistency. Annual headhaul growth from 2013 to 2017 is forecast at 6%. Service capacity southbound in the first quarter of 2014 is estimated to have increased by 4% compared to the first quarter of 2013. Y-o-Y in the first quarter of 2014, utilisation level is estimated to have improved marginally but freight rates and profits are estimated to have declined (southbound). 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 This data is provided by Box Trade Intelligence in collaboration with MDS Transmodal. Much more detail is available directly from BTI (www.boxtradeintelligence.co.uk), including tonnages and estimated teu at the country x country x 3,000 commodities level, individual ship deployment and estimated revenue, profit, rates and utilisation at the tradelane and individual ship level. Leading indicators: headhaul from north Europe 000 teu. Italics = projected Commodity 2012 2013 2014 2015 78 Road Vehicles 28 29 19 23 64 Paper & Paperboard 24 24 23 25 26 Textile Fibres 19 19 19 21 08 Animal Feedingstuffs 17 15 17 18 72 Specialised Machinery 14 14 12 13 Overall headhaul index 100 101 101 110 Overall backhaul index 100 94 89 85 Leading indicators: headhaul from north Europe 000 teu. Italics = projected Commodity 2012 2013 2014 2015 72 Specialised Machinery 28 19 19 20 78 Road Vehicles 23 22 20 22 89 Miscellaneous Manufactures 21 22 20 21 64 Paper & Paperboard 20 21 18 19 77 Electrical Machinery 17 16 13 14 Overall headhaul index 100 99 105 113 Overall backhaul index 100 91 83 89 Supply - based on actual data Demand - based on actual data Demand seasonally adj 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2 0 0 7 Q 1 2 0 0 8 Q 1 2 0 0 9 Q 1 2 0 1 0 Q 1 2 0 1 1 Q 1 2 0 1 2 Q 1 2 0 1 3 Q 1 2014 Q1 Supply Index=164 2013 Q1 - 2014 Q1 % change quarter on quarter Supply=0.7% Demand=5.7% 2014 Q1 Demand Index=156 2 0 1 4 Q 1 2 0 0 6 Q 1 Graph A: Global supply v demand and seasonally adjusted demand index 2006 (Q1=100) July/August 2014 8 CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL www.containershipping.com DATA HUB LOAD FACTORS CAPACITY REDUCTIONS Damian Brett takes a look at the likely impact of supply and demand on some of the key European trade lanes Europe to Middle East Gulf & Indian subcontinent The headhaul direction of this finely balanced trade lane looks set for a mixed year with a good first six months undermined by a weaker second half. Volumes are expected to increase by just over 7% this year but second quarter capacity was up by 7.2% compared with a year earlier. The trade lane is also affected by capacity decisions on Asia-Mediterranean services with wayport calls in Middle East Gulf and Indian subcontinent. This has come into play over the last three months as larger vessels were added to several services from Asia. Dedicated services were also improved, with larger ships allocated to CMA CGMs service and Messina and Bahri deploying extra vessels in their loops. All in all, capacity increased by 5.2% at the end of the second quarter compared with the end of the first three months. 3 Northern Europe to east coast of South America Vessel utilisation levels on this trade lane have suddenly increased after a large amount of capacity was withdrawn from the market. The capacity withdrawal came in the shape of the axing of the Brazil Express service that was run by CSAV, CMA CGM and Mediterranean Shipping Co. While this service was cut, Alianca, Hamburg Sd and Hapag-Lloyd have upgraded the Brazil River Plate Express service with the addition of 9,700 teu-10,500 teu ships, which has minimised the impact slightly. This all adds up to a capacity reduction of 15.2% compared with the end of the first quarter. Meanwhile, volumes are expected to increase by around 3% this year. In terms of utilisation levels the reduction has improved the situation for carriers with levels of 94% expected for the third quarter and 88% for the fourth quarter. 1 East coast of South America to northern Europe The shipping lines operating on this trade lane made a sudden capacity withdrawal during the second quarter of the year, with a CSAV, CMA CGM and MSC joint service removed from operation. Larger vessels were added to another service, but overall capacity has been reduced by 15.2% during the quarter. The capacity reduction comes on the back of expectations for a slight reduction in volumes on the trade lane in 2014. As a backhaul trade, utilisation levels are expected to remain fairly low, although this trade lane is better than most on the reverse direction and load factors are expected to reach 87% during the fourth quarter. 2 2 1 4 East Coast South America to northern Europe: average vessel utilisation 0 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q2 15 Q1 15 Q4 14 Q3 14 Q2 14 Q1 14 Q4 13 Q3 13 Q2 13 Northern Europe to East Coast South America: average vessel utilisation 0 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q2 15 Q1 15 Q4 14 Q3 14 Q2 14 Q1 14 Q4 13 Q3 13 Q2 13 Europe to Middle East Gulf: average vessel utilisation 0 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q2 15 Q1 15 Q4 14 Q3 14 Q2 14 Q1 14 Q4 13 Q3 13 Q2 13 July/August 2014 www.containershipping.com CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL 9 6 OUR METHODOLOGY: The freight rate forecasts shown in the tables are mainly based on projections of estimated average vessel utilisation in each trade lane, combined with other relevant circumstances. The fuller the ship, the more likely rates will rise and vice versa. Cargo forecasts are based on the latest information from all sources available to Containerisation Internationals editorial team. These will always be conservative, and only take account of normal seasonal variations. Fleet capacity information is derived from Lloyds List Intelligence. Current shipboard capacity in each route is estimated by deducting space lost for broken stows and wayport cargo from the operating capacity offered on every vessel in that tradelane. This is projected forward by estimating where newbuildings are likely to be deployed, as well as where replaced vessels are likely to be cascaded into. Average vessel utilisation is simply one divided by the other. It should be noted, therefore, that the resulting freight rate trends only reflect what should theoretically happen if ocean carriers continue acting according to form. They do not take into account dramatic changes in strategy, such as mass lay-ups, service consolidation and more hub and spoke operations. Middle East Gulf & Indian subcontinent to Europe Analysts are expecting volumes on this trade lane to increase rapidly in 2014. MDS Transmodal is predicting an increase of 10.7% compared with 2013 to 2.5m teu. Its growth prediction appears to be proving accurate. Figures for the first five months of the year from Container Trades Statistics show a 10.4% increase compared with the same period a year ago. However, as this is the backhaul trade, utilisation levels are not expected to be the strongest this year. That said, the situation is improving and load factors look set to reach 86% during the first quarter of 2015. 4 DATA HUB FREIGHT FORECASTER NEXT EDITION: AMERICAS DATA HUB LOAD FACTORS Asia to northern Europe Load factors on the Asia-north Europe trade look set to be strong over the next 12 months as volumes continue to increase ahead of capacity additions. The latest figures from Container Trades Statistics show that during the first five months of the year, volumes have increased by 8.4% year on year to just over 4m teu. Meanwhile, second quarter capacity was up by 5.8% compared with a year ago. Since the end of the first quarter, carriers have increased capacity by around 4.6% as shipping lines have filled gaps in services and brought in new larger tonnage as they prepare for the peak season. These changes include the CKYHE Alliance adjusting its schedules to include Evergreen, resulting in larger ships of 13,800 teu joining the CEM/NE5 loop. The G6 Alliance continued to increase the size of ships on its Loop 7 service. Maersk Line and Mediterranean Shipping Co filled gaps in services and the Danish carrier also added larger ships to its AE2 loop. 6 Asia to the Mediterranean Carriers are continuing to carefully manage capacity on the Asia- Mediterranean route. For example, compared with the second quarter of last year, capacity has actually been reduced by 2.4%. Meanwhile, since the end of the first quarter, shipping lines have added just 2.1% of capacity to the market. This low increase in capacity is down to the fact that the CKYHE Alliance rationalised its MD1 and MAP service into a single pendulum operation utilising 10,000 teu ships. The new service also has additional calls in the Mediterranean. In terms of overall growth, unless extra services are launched which seems unlikely total capacity in 2014 will only be slightly higher than the 2013 level. While capacity is being carefully managed, volumes are surging, and Containerisation International estimates a 7% growth level for the full-year 2014. The strong volume growth and low-level capacity additions mean that utilisation levels are expected to reach 90% in the third quarter of the year. 5 5 3 0 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q2 15 Q1 15 Q4 14 Q3 14 Q2 14 Q1 14 Q4 13 Q3 13 Q2 13 Asia to northern Europe: average utilisation rates Asia to Mediterranean: average vessel utilisation 0 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q2 15 Q1 15 Q4 14 Q3 14 Q2 14 Q1 14 Q4 13 Q3 13 Q2 13 Middle East Gulf to Europe: average vessel utilisation 0 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q2 15 Q1 15 Q4 14 Q3 14 Q2 14 Q1 14 Q4 13 Q3 13 Q2 13 KEY: Green (84% and above): Carriers should be able to protect rates or even improve prices, unless the market has hit the top or sentiment dictates otherwise. Grey (80%-83%): Freight rates should be fairly steady compared with the previous quarter unless market sentiment dictates otherwise. Red (79% and below): Carriers are likely to have a tough time improving rates and prices could well decline compared with the previous quarter, unless the market has hit the bottom or sentiment dictates otherwise. SUPPLY CONTINUES TO GROW AHEAD OF DEMAND The boxship eet capacity increased in June to reach 17.5m teu, reports James Baker Teu Size range In service June 2014 Outstanding Orderbook 2014 On Order 2015 On Order 2016+ Total vessels on order Total teu on order No Teu No Teu No Teu No Teu 0-499 322 88,650 1 250 3 260 - - 4 510 500-999 717 542,589 4 2,930 2 1,481 1 540 7 4,951 1,000-2,999 1,851 3,349,172 43 75,172 66 129,450 38 77,288 147 281,910 3,000-4,999 920 3,803,523 20 84,588 11 42,700 9 34,600 40 161,888 5,000-7,499 613 3,699,050 8 45,600 8 49,200 - - 16 94,800 7,500-9,999 353 3,037,532 24 211,952 60 541,684 25 231,648 109 985,284 10,000-12,999 72 793,348 9 97,686 17 178,362 11 112,020 37 388,068 13,000-15,999 145 1,965,301 8 108,000 23 323,850 25 352,500 56 784,350 16,000+ 12 212,490 9 160,680 31 556,910 1 18,800 41 736,390 Total 5,005 17,491,655 126 786,858 221 1,823,897 110 827,396 457 3,438,151 World Cellular Fleet June 2014 (excluding newbuild postponements and cancellations under negotiation) MOl Loire was demolished in June. Lay-up and demolition cannot keep pace with the number of larger vessels entering service. Photo: Dietmar Hasenpusch WHAT a difference a month makes. The last time this column went to press, the P3 alliance was awaiting its final approval from Chinese authorities. A few short weeks later and Source: Lloyds List Intelligence DATA HUB WORLD FLEET UPDATE 10 CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL www.containershipping.com July/August 2014 the discussion is now over whether the 2M vessel-sharing arrangement of Maersk Line and Mediterranean Shipping Co will operate within the confines of Chinas anti- monopoly laws and how this new partnership will affect the industry. To a certain extent, however, this is all just a rearranging of deckchairs. While alliances may alter the competitive landscape between lines, the market overall remains the same: too many ships and too few cargoes. Owners can find some relief in the fact that the number of vessels on the water has fallen since the end of May. By the DATA HUB WORLD FLEET UPDATE 12 CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL www.containershipping.com July/August 2014 Vessels laid-up Week ending July 1, 2014 Notes: Lloyds List Intelligence monitors reported and AIS movements of commercial vessels worldwide. This extract identies vessels with no recorded movement in the past 25 days. Inactive teu size range Owner operator Chartered in /unknown Total % total fleet No of ships Teu No of ships Teu No of ships Teu 0-499 16 5,647 76 17,512 92 23,159 25.9% 500-999 9 5,891 50 34,638 59 40,529 7.5% 1,000-2,999 16 23,342 41 66,400 57 89,742 2.7% 3,000-4,999 2 9,140 13 52,683 15 61,823 1.6% 5,000-7,499 2 11,104 3 17,946 5 29,050 0.8% 7,500-9,999 - - 1 8,600 1 8,600 0.3% 10,000-12,999 - - - - - - - 13,000+ - - - - - - - Total 45 55,124 184 197,779 229 252,903 1.4% Source: Lloyds List Intelligence Vessels delivered June 2014 Vessel name Shipyard Teu Reefer plugs DWT Knots Beneficial owner Operator Deployment Matz Maersk Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering 18,270 600 194,284 23 A.P. Moller-Maersk Maersk Line Asia-Europe Thalassa Niki Hyundai Heavy Industries 13,800 151,200 23 N.S. Lemos Evergreen Asia-Europe OOCL Singapore Samsung Shipbuilding & Heavy Industries 13,200 1,150 144,159 23.5 Financial Products Group Orient Overseas Container Line Asia-Europe Hyundai Drive Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering 13,050 145,979 24.8 Hyundai Merchant Marine Hyundai Merchant Marine Asia-Europe MOL Bravo Jiangsu New Yangzijiang Shipbuilding 10,000 117,500 Washington Marine Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Asia-Europe Hanjin Ami Jiangsu Yangzi Xinfu Shipbuilding 10,000 115,260 Washington Marine Hanjin Shipping Asia-Europe CSCL Bohai Sea Dalian Shipbuilding 10,000 700 121,824 23.5 China Shipping China Shipping Container Lines Transpacific Hanjin Namu Jiangsu New Yangzijiang Shipbuilding 10,000 115,318 23 Washington Marine Hanjin Shipping Asia-Europe Cap San Sounio Hyundai Heavy Industries 9,669 2,100 123,050 N.S. Lemos Hamburg Sd Asia-Africa UASC Tabuk Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries 9,000 112,171 22 Embiricos Group United Arab Shipping Co Transpacific Wide Bravo Hanjin Heavy Industries (Subic Bay) 5,400 65,347 Unknown NYK Line Asia-South America Wide Alpha Hanjin Heavy Industries (Subic Bay) 5,400 65,152 22 Bernhard Schulte Group NYK Line Asia-South America YM Excellence CSBC Corp 4,500 700 56,600 25.6 Yang Ming Marine Yang Ming Marine - Kota Sabas Dalian No.2 3,900 51,500 Pacific International Lines Pacific International Lines Asia-Africa Niledutch Breda Shanghai Shipyard Company 3,800 47,000 22.7 Nile Dutch Nile Dutch Asia-Africa Barry Trader Guangzhou Wenchong Shipyard 2,190 490 25,000 19 Lomar Shipping & Management MCC Transport Regional Asia Nordlion Zhejiang Ouhua Shipbuilding 1,700 350 23,574 18.5 Reederei Nord COSCO Container Lines - Lagarfoss Rongcheng Shenfei Shipbuilding 875 230 12,000 18.3 Eimskip Eimskip - Source: Lloyds List Intelligence end of June, there were 12 fewer ships in the fleet but, as usual, yet more capacity. The aggregate nominal teu capacity of the 5,005 vessels increased by 78,500 teu to reach 17.5m teu. New deliveries were led by the latest of Maersks Triple-E fleet, the 18,270 teu Matz Maersk. New Triple-Es are rolling off the slipway at the rate of one a month, each one with the nominal capacity of four panamaxes, so it is easy to see how the total fleet capacity continues to grow. Lay-up and demolition just cannot keep pace with the number of larger vessels entering service. Of the 17 vessels joining the fleet in June, 12 were post-panamax or larger, with eight of those having a nominal capacity of 10,000 teu or more. At the other end of the lifespan, the 16 vessels demolished in June were all panamax-sized or smaller and all towards the end of their serviceable life. The youngest were 15-year-old feeder units but the majority were 19-24 years old. The number of vessels returning to active service after being in lay-up increased in June, taking the number of idle vessels down to new lows, with only 1.4% of the fleet now inactive. The fleet in lay-up, primarily made up of feederships, stands at 229 vessels comprising 253,000 teu. The surprise here was that of the 22 vessels that came out of lay-up in June, eight were panamaxes. These ships accounted for 35,000 teu of the 48,000 teu of capacity that returned to service. Despite this demand, the value of panamax tonnage www.containershipping.com CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL 13 July/August 2014 DATA HUB WORLD FLEET UPDATE Valuations for post-panamax, panamax and handymax container vessels Age Capacity (teu) June 19, 2014 ($m) May 19, 2014 ($m) Monthly change ($m) June 19, 2013 ($m) Yearly change ($m) 0 4,250 28.2 33.7 -5.5 36.4 -8.2 5 4,250 20.0 23.1 -3.1 25.5 -5.5 10 4,000 12.6 13.3 -0.7 15.7 -3.1 15 4,000 9.4 9.9 -0.5 9.8 -0.4 20 3,750 8.9 9.3 -0.4 7.7 1.2 25 3,750 8.9 9.3 -0.4 7.9 1.0 Panamax Source: Vesselsvalue.com Age Capacity (teu) June 19, 2014 ($m) May 19, 2014 ($m) Monthly change ($m) June 19, 2013 ($m) Yearly change ($m) 0 1,400 17.5 17.9 -0.4 21.1 -3.6 5 1,400 12.5 12.9 -0.4 14.5 -2.0 10 1,400 8.1 8.3 -0.2 8.6 -0.5 15 1,400 4.7 4.9 -0.2 4.7 0.0 20 1,400 3.6 3.8 -0.2 3.1 0.5 25 1,400 3.7 3.8 -0.1 3.2 0.5 Handymax Source: Vesselsvalue.com Current and historical values for tankers, bulkers and containers. Daily updated sales lists, vessel specications and ownership information. Data exports, valuation certicates, interactive charts and automated alerts Age Capacity (teu) June 19, 2014 ($m) May 19, 2014 ($m) Monthly change ($m) June 19, 2013 ($m) Yearly change ($m) 0 7,000 66.0 65.1 0.9 58.2 7.8 5 7,000 47.7 48.0 -0.3 40.8 6.9 10 6,500 30.6 29.4 1.2 24.8 5.8 15 5,500 16.5 14.7 1.8 15.5 1.0 20 4,500 9.8 10.3 -0.5 8.5 1.3 Post-panamax Source: Vesselsvalue.com Vessels demolished June 2014 Vessel name Built Teu Broken date Broken place Shipbreakers Previous Beneficial owner Sunny Oasis 1995 4,743 17-Jun-14 Alang Indian Breakers Mitsui O.S.K. Lines MOL Loire 1995 4,723 27-Jun-14 Alang Indian Breakers Mitsui O.S.K. Lines MOL Tyne 1995 4,708 13-Jun-14 Alang Indian Breakers Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Road 1993 4,229 16-Jun-14 Alang Indian Breakers Seafarers Shipping New Orleans Express 1989 3,032 29-Jun-14 Jiangyin Chinese Breakers Hapag-Lloyd Xin Ying Wan 1990 2,917 04-Jun-14 Zhoushan Chinese Breakers Hainan Pan Ocean Fuji 1997 2,754 12-Jun-14 Alang Indian Breakers Conti Holding MSC Hina 1995 1,438 28-Jun-14 Alang Indian Breakers Mediterranean Shipping Company Xian Xia Ling 1993 1,100 05-Jun-14 Zhangjiagang Chinese Breakers China Shipping Feng Xiang Ling 1994 1,100 10-Jun-14 Zhangjiagang Chinese Breakers China Shipping Christy 1997 1,055 26-Jun-14 Aliaga Turkish Breakers Deepdale Shipping Sea Breezer 1999 779 14-Jun-14 Alang Indian Breakers Ocean Shell Shipping Umeko 1999 564 11-Jun-14 Jiangyin Chinese Breakers China Ocean Shipping Lian Feng 1985 520 04-Jun-14 Zhoushan Chinese Breakers China United Lines Khudozhnik N.Rerikh 1989 490 08-Jun-14 Chittagong Bangladesh Breakers Far-Eastern Shipping Company Xiamen 1995 338 18-Jun-14 Alang Indian Breakers Yang Ming Marine Source: Lloyds List Intelligence continues to slide, according to data from VesselsValue. The value of a new panamax has fallen over 20% to $28.2m in the year to the end of June. Similar percentage declines have been seen in vessels of five and 10 years of age as well. This contrasts starkly with larger vessels, the price of which continues to surge. A 10-year-old, 6,500 teu post-panamax has seen a 24% lift in value to $30.6m in the year to June. New 7,000 teu vessels, which could be had for $58.2m, are now valued at $66m, an increase of 13.5%. DATA HUB 14 CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL www.containershipping.com July/August 2014 USING fewer but larger and newer ships is a trend occurring across all routes to maximise efficiencies and streamline service fleets. A few years ago the average ship size on the Asia-South America route was 5,000 teu and there were a total of 180 vessels in operation on the trade lane. Now the average ship size is 6,200 teu, with a total of 155 vessels. Using the biggest ship for each route maximises slot efficiency, while ensuring that the vessel can call at all ports being served. Half of the fleet on this route is now less than five years old, compared with the equivalent figure a year ago of 40%. These newer ships also account for half of the reefer slots available on the route and should offer better fuel efficiency than older vessels. Lloyds List Intelligence predicts that over the next few years larger, newer ships of up to 13,000 teu currently on order will be deployed on the Asia-South America route. This is mainly due to the deployment of ultra-large containerships on the main east-west trades, leaving the super post- panamax fleet of ships, between 8,000 teu and 14,000 teu, to be cascaded on to north-south routes such as Asia-South America. There are currently 149 super post- panamax ships on order. Of these, 43% are known to be operated by the main Asia-South America carriers: CMA CGM, China Shipping Container Lines, Hanjin, Hamburg Sd, Mediterranean Shipping Co, Cosco Container Lines, CCNI, Evergreen and CSAV. Investment is still needed in South American ports to handle larger boxships, writes Sarah Bennett of Lloyds List Intelligence DESTINATION SUPER POST PANAMAX According to a study by the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, between 2016 and 2019 vessels of an average size of 13,000 teu will arrive at the east and west coasts of South America, which is part of a global trend of international trade in search of economies of scale and economic density. In preparation for larger ships, Chile-based Terminal Pacifico Sur Valparaiso has purchased cranes with an outreach of 62 m and a safe working load of 65 tonnes under a twin lift spreader. These can accommodate ships with breadths of up to 62 m. The use of reefer containers is an important part of the South America- Asia trade for transporting fresh fruit and vegetables. There are a total of 120,000 reefer slots on board boxships on this trade. CSAV, Hamburg Sd, Maersk and MSC contribute the most reefer slots at 60% on this route. The majority of ships are between 5,000 teu and 10,000 teu, accounting for 89% of the total trade route, with half of these being between 7,500 teu and 9,999 teu. The largest ship currently serving this route is the 9,700 teu Cap San Maleas on Hamburg Sds ASIA service, which will DATA HUB TRADE ROUTES So far this year, 31 ships of this size have been delivered and four of these are deployed on the Asia-South America route. The others are deployed on the main east- west trades, while a few serve the Europe- South America route. As the 85 ships with more than 14,000 teu currently on order are delivered and deployed on the main east-west trades, more of the super post-panamax fleet will be cascaded onto north-south trades such as Asia-South America. Infrastructure investment, however, is required in South America to enable ports to handle larger vessels and for intermodal services to handle higher cargo volumes. Figure 1: Teu range proportion among Asia-South America operators Source: Lloyds List Intelligence 7,500-9,999 3,000-4,999 5,000-7,499 % of total Asia-South America (teu) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 11% 46% 43% www.containershipping.com CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL 15 July/August 2014 TRADE ROUTE INTELLIGENCE DATA HUB TRADE ROUTES soon be joined by two others with the same specifications. There is still scope for larger vessels as seven of the 15 fully containerised services on this route still use ships of 4,000 teu. Six newly delivered containerships are currently deployed on the Asia-South America route. Four of these are between 9,400 teu and 9,700 teu , with three operated by MSC and one by Hamburg Sd. At the same time last year seven new, but smaller, ships were deployed on the route with between 4,300 teu and 5,000 teu. This trend of newer, larger ships on the route is likely to continue. Maersk Line MSC CSAV Evergreen Line Hamburg Sud CMA CGM MOL NYK China Shipping COSCON K Line PIL Hanjin Shipping CCNI Wan Hai HMM Zim 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 Figure 2: Weekly operated capacity on the Asia-South America trade route by line Source: Lloyds List Intelligence Chile-based Terminal Pacifico Sur Valparaiso has purchased new cranes in preparation for larger ships. 16 CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL www.containershipping.com July/August 2014 THE first quarter of 2014 showed little change from the general malaise evident throughout 2013 for the majors in liner shipping. Overcapacity, despite some increase in volume on the important Asia-Europe trade, continues to impede progress towards achieving sustainably better rates. Mergers and acquisitions, considered by many to be an essential element of tackling the industrys structural problems, are still only represented by the Hapag-Lloyd/CSAV tie-up, although the former has stated its continuing interest, particularly in the Asia- Pacific region. The lines cost-cutting efforts depend largely on bunker price reductions as most other avenues for economies have long since been exhausted. The delivery of new tonnage continues unabated and vessels on order represent over 20% of current capacity, with Maersk Line alone expecting delivery of a further 14 Triple-E class ships totalling 252,000 teu during 2014 and 2015. Delays to the Panama Canal expansion have also postponed the benefits that carriers were expecting to gain from using larger vessels on services that transit the transport artery. Furthermore, the innovative and progressive P3 arrangement between Maersk Line, Mediterranean Shipping Co and CMA CGM was rejected by Chinas competition authority, preventing its implementation. Ongoing challenges Continuing difficulties challenge the liner shipping industry to survive and prosperity is still some way off. First-quarter volumes as shown in Table 1 are for most of the major carriers, with those issuing quarterly information registering growth of between 2% and 9% year on year. Leading the increases were intra-Asia/ Australasia and Europe trades, with flat or falling volumes on the Pacific and Atlantic trades. In the case of OOCL, the increases were over 14% on intra-Australia and 9.7% on Europe but a 1.1% decline on the Atlantic. This performance is mirrored by Hapag-Lloyd with substantial, and no doubt welcome, growth in the Europe- Asia (10.7%) and South America (8.9%) Logic suggests weaker players should withdraw from the container line industry, but who will blink rst? Alastair Hill reports PROFITABILITY PROSPECTS REMAIN BLEAK ANALYSIS/COMPANY FINANCIALS CARRIERS OOCL APL CMA CGM Maersk CSAV Hapag-Lloyd ZIM Volumes 1,352 785 2,800 4,400 446 1,399 617 Change Y-o-Y 8.9% 1.7% 5.8% 7.3% 2.3% 5.5% 2.0% Table 1: Total volumes Q1 2014 (000 teu) Source: Company reports www.containershipping.com CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL 17 July/August 2014 trades, offset by generally flat performance elsewhere. CMA CGM reported 12% growth in its intra-Asia/Australia business and 5.1% on what is described as east-west trades. However, revenues per unit, as shown in Table 2, have seen significant falls as the lines remain unable to implement rate rises that actually stick. The figures for intra-Asia/ Australia demonstrate how the revenue per teu experience on the other trades has now spread to that route, hitherto relatively unscathed by the problems elsewhere. At least unit revenue rates seem to follow the laws of supply and demand that apparently elude other aspects of the liner industry. Unless average rates per teu rise by at least $100-$120 for the whole of 2014 and nothing else changes, many lines will be unable to break even, let alone make profits, so the outlook for 2014 remains bleak. This also reinforces the perception that the general rate increases introduced on a regular basis by lines fail to hold beyond the period immediately following implementation. The results summarised in Tables 3 and 4 reveal that total revenue and profits have shown little improvement except for Maersk and CMA CGM, where their dominant market position and operational cost advantages deriving from larger vessels and more fuel-efficient ships have brought benefits denied to many of their competitors. One can reasonably assume their erstwhile P3 partner MSC has enjoyed similar results, perhaps a factor in the rejection by China of the proposed combination. The position of both CSAV and Zim is consistent with their wider problems, but Hapag-Lloyd and APLs performance suggests significant weakness in their response to the sectors difficulties. Steps to success So what can the lines do to rebuild the parlous state of their finances? There are few steps left to them that have not already been fully exploited. Overcapacity remains the burning issue in terms of industry structure and is considered by most as something that needs to be dealt with by the industry as a whole. Beyond the Hapag-Lloyd/CSAV arrangement there have been no other examples of consolidation. Many lines in that middle ground outside the top five to 10 lines and therefore just below being a totally global operator should be more open to some form of combination than the giants, but there is no evidence of any activity. As many lines are owned or substantially controlled by state entities, financial discipline has generally come as a secondary consideration where investment and profitability are concerned and this must determine their interest in seeking success through corporate developments. Despite this, many must feel that the neglect of financial success cannot be sustained indefinitely and the pressure to combine, merge or take over can only The delivery of new tonnage continues: Maersk Line alone is expecting delivery of 14 Triple-E ships in 2014 and 2015. ANALYSIS/COMPANY FINANCIALS CARRIERS OOCL APL CMA CGM Maersk CSAV Hapag-Lloyd ZIM Revenue $1,026 $1,116 $1,407 $1,314 - $1,422 $1,213 Change Y-o-Y -6.6% -6.0% -2.9% -5.1% - -8.0% -5.4% Table 2: Revenue per teu Q1 2014 ($) *Each line reports profit differently so these numbers are not directly comparable Source: Company reports OOCL APL CMA CGM Maersk CSAV Hapag-Lloyd ZIM Revenue $1,388 $1,878 $3,667 $6,463 $745 $1,554 $867 Change Y-o-Y 1.7% -4.5% 3.3% 2.4% -15.0% -5.9% -5.6% Table 3: Total revenue Q1 2014 ($m) *Each line reports profit differently so these numbers are not directly comparable Source: Company reports OOCL APL CMA CGM Maersk CSAV Hapag-Lloyd ZIM Profit/loss - -$83 $97 $454 -$66 -$88 -$62 Table 4: Total profit Q1 2014 ($m) *Each line reports profit differently so these numbers are not directly comparable Source: Company reports 18 CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL www.containershipping.com July/August 2014 build. One of the major independent lines is reportedly engaged in a serious examination of its future in the light of the problems in the industry. Without the economies of scale afforded by operating 18,000 teu vessels, no one will be able to match the performance of the lines possessing such vessels. This will drive further capacity increases leading to continuing rate pressure ultimately damaging the bottom line. The response to capacity increases should be more scrapping but, as with mergers or acquisitions, most are reluctant to take the financial hit of demolishing relatively modern tonnage. Similarly, cascading mid-range capacity vessels to secondary routes merely increases the rate pressure on those trades, which have up until now escaped the worst of the rate wars. Can trade growth help? Global trade growth forecasts for 2014 suggest increases in the 3.5%-5% range, which is below what is needed to absorb the deluge of newbuildings hanging over the market. Asia-Europe has shown a significant increase in liftings this year of around 10% year on year, which has been of immense value to the lines involved. However, other major trades remain subdued and the peak season performance if, unlike the past two years there is any discernible peak season will need to be very good to indicate any substantial turnaround. Geopolitical issues Cost control, a contributor to stemming losses, has been due largely to the effect of falling bunker prices, which can amount to in excess of 20% of operating revenue. Most lines disclosed that bunker price changes have been positive in the range of 5%-7% in the first quarter of 2014, representing around $40 per ton, leading to an average price of some $590 per ton. The effect of this on the fuel consumption of a line such as CMA CGM would be in the region of $50m per quarter and therefore a significant contributor to first-quarter cost reductions across all operators before any BAF changes. How much longer this will persist is open to debate, particularly with current geopolitical issues building in oil producing regions and with the price of bunkers now approaching 2013 levels. There are also further bunker problems in store from 2015 when the low sulphur emissions regime in certain emission control areas, such as the North and Baltic Sea, undergo a massive change with major adverse cost implications for shipping companies. The outlook, therefore, remains gloomy with the well-documented difficulties persisting into 2015 and beyond, but it can be expected that the erstwhile P3 members will progressively draw further ahead of their competitors. The capital employed stated by Maersk and its share of global trade suggests the industry has capital employed of some $150bn-$200bn. There must be better ways to invest that capital than in container shipping with its pitiful profitability, so logically casualties are inevitable and one or two players look vulnerable, but who will blink first and when did commercial logic enter the mix? Falling bunker prices have contributed to stemming losses. The effect of prices on fuel consumption of a line such as CMA CGM would be in the region of $50m per quarter. ANALYSIS/COMPANY FINANCIALS CARRIERS Alastair Hill is a qualified accountant with over 30 years experience in the container shipping and wider transport industry having started with Sea Containers in commercial and business development positions . He has worked for K Line UK, UTT (Interbulk) in the Far East and other tank and dry box lessors and managers. He is an independent consultant/interim manager and has also worked in Qatar and Guyana on development projects. THE competitiveness of Hong Kongs port is typically bemoaned by the citys business constituents. Hutchison Port Holdings, the port arm of Hutchison Whampoa, sold the bulk of its stake in Hong Kongs Terminal 8 in March for $319m to Chinas Cosco Pacific and China Shipping Terminal Development. The sale renewed speculation that Hong Kongs primo tycoon Li Ka-shing, who controls Hutchison, had lost confidence in Hong Kongs growth story. Hutchison Port Holdings also spun off some of its operations, listing them as a unit trust in Singapore in 2011. Divestment from Hong Kongs port seems reasonable, at least, given recent trends in shipping that favour alliances. These pacts are altering shipping traffic, adding some calls to ports and sheering away others. Hong Kong appears to the biggest loser of these changes this year even if it has dodged a much more dramatic reduction in calls following the collapse of the P3 Alliance. According to figures both from SeaIntel and Alphaliner, weekly port calls of containerships in Hong Kong drop by five a week when schedules of existing alliances G6 and CKYHE in 2014 are taken into account. Five fewer calls can be absorbed, of course, but the effect of the 2M will likely subtract at least several more. One indicator is that the now-derailed P3 would have cut 10 boxship visits per week; some of that loss will likely be retained in the 2Ms plans. South Koreas Busan Port is second-hardest hit, with a reduction of five port calls a week under the G6, but with the CKYHE, there is an addition of one call to a total of four per week. That means the net loss under new alliances excluding 2M will be four visits per week. Tokyo loses three port visits this year, compared to the last, all due to the G6. In contrast, under existing alliances, Singapore loses three port visits per week, all under CKYHE schedules. There would have been no reduction of port calls under the P3. Hong Kongs problems are compounded by number of factors, including the rise of competitive ports like those at Shenzhen and Guangzhou directly to the north, the slowing in export trade from Southern China generally, and slowness to respond by Hong Kong in making upgrades that would allow the biggest new ships to visit the port. Only 15 of the 24 berths can accommodate ships between 11,000 teu to the largest sizes of around 18,000 teu. Hong Kong plans to dredge over the next two to three years to allow 18,000 teu ships to transit, but the Shekou Port in Shenzhen has already completed dredging of its Tonggu Channel. The collapse of the P3 alliance, following a rejection of the intended groups application to Beijings Ministry of Commerce, gave Hong Kong a reprieve, at least until the impact of the freshly announced 2M alliance between Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping Co is felt. But reprieves are relative. Volume figures for Hong Kong have been dropping since 2011, when 24.4m teu in throughput was recorded. Volumes in 2012 amounted to 23.1m teu. In 2013, in which the Hutchisons port operations were hit by a strike, volumes dropped to 22.4m teu. Hong Kong, long the worlds third-busiest port, was pushed into fourth place by Shenzhen port, which recorded volumes of 22.9m teu in 2013. www.containershipping.com CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL 19 July/August 2014 CALL CHANGES/ALLIANCES PORTS Port CKYHE-AE G6-TP P3-AE/TP Total Old New Old New Old New Old New Change Chiwan - - 3 - 13 17 16 17 1 Taipei 1 2 - - - - 1 2 1 Tanjung Pelepas 6 4 - - 14 17 20 21 1 Yokohama - - 4 5 5 5 9 10 1 Dachan Bay - - 3 2 - - 3 2 -1 Dalian 1 1 - - 5 4 6 5 -1 Kobe - - 4 3 2 2 6 5 -1 Sendai - - 1 - - - 1 - -1 Tianjin 2 1 - - - - 2 1 -1 Kwangyang 1 1 3 3 5 3 9 7 -2 Nagoya - - 5 3 2 2 7 5 -2 Shekou 3 2 - - 1 0 4 2 -2 Xingang - - 1 1 6 4 7 5 -2 Singapore 13 10 3 3 20 20 36 33 -3 Tokyo 1 1 7 4 - - 8 5 -3 Nansha 3 2 - - 7 4 10 6 -4 Qingdao 5 4 4 2 11 9 20 15 -5 Yantian 11 8 7 6 27 26 45 40 -5 Busan 3 4 14 9 15 13 32 26 -6 Kaohsiung 6 4 9 5 4 4 19 13 -6 Ningbo 10 7 4 4 23 20 37 31 -6 Port Kelang - - - - 12 5 12 5 -7 Hong Kong 11 7 7 6 22 12 40 25 -15 Ports without changes 20 18 15 15 41 43 76 76 0 Grand total 97 76 94 71 235 210 426 357 -69 P3s collapse may be good for the worlds fourth-largest port, but ve boxship visits per week have been lost to G6 and CKYHE alliances, reports Tom Leander MIXED FORTUNES FOR HONG KONG Table 1: Weekly port call changes of alliance in 2014: Asia Sources: Alphaliner, Seaintel THE container shipping industry changes rapidly. In early June the world was preparing itself for the start-up of the largest alliance of box lines the industry had ever known with the establishment of the P3 Network of Maersk Line, Mediterranean Shipping Co and CMA CGM. By the middle of the month, the alliance had been abandoned and the 2M partnership was in the process of being formed. But it is not only the shipping lines that are changing their approach as ships get bigger and margins get tighter container terminal operators are also in the midst of a period of change. APM Terminals is one such company. Over the last year, the terminal operator has implemented a far-reaching change of strategy that it hopes will allow it to adapt to demands for higher levels of productivity while ensuring that it reaches its financial targets. Chief commercial officer Martin Gaard Christiansen explains that each terminal previously operated independently but it is now developing global competencies and driving standardisation across its facilities. While being the chief commercial officer, Mr Christiansen took an interim role as chief operating officer for around a year to develop the strategy and to give him an insight into both sides of the business. A key reason for me having that interim role was to bring commercial closer to operations, he says. We very often reinvent the wheel locally by not having a standardised process for how we deal with the various operational processes. Now we are going much more towards a global way of working when we find out what works well in one terminal we take that process and feed it out to the other terminals. One of Mr Christiansens priorities is the difficult task of moving away from the traditional transactional customer relationship to a more solutions-based understanding. This is fuelled by the need for faster turnaround times as the result of an increase in the number of ultra-large container vessels. In general larger tonnage is being deployed in all trades with a lot of changes to the vessel-sharing agreements and alliance set-ups and, as a result, ocean carriers require a more stable, predictable and efficient product, he explains. That means the complexity of operations are increasing for us and we wanted to make sure we focus our attention on what matters for our customers. We need to move away from the more traditional transactional approach between the lines and the operator where the main focus has been on the CY [container yard] rates, and move towards selling time and efficiency in the port. It is also applying a more global TERMINALS/APMT PORTS 20 CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL www.containershipping.com July/August 2014 Bigger ships drive the need for higher productivity in strategy switch-up for terminal operator, reports Damian Brett APMT APPLIES GLOBAL STANDARDS Photo: APMT www.containershipping.com CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL 21 July/August 2014 TERMINALS/APMT PORTS approach to the maintenance of equipment to improve reliability and therefore productivity. He says that while the change to a more global approach is still at an early stage, there have already been improvements in performance. From a commercial perspective the challenge remains to convince customers to pay more, in line with the new approach. We have seen a shift where our customers are acknowledging that there is value in a more stable productivity, he says. It means shipping lines can start taking buffers out of their scheduling. And if we can demonstrate that we, on a reliable predictable basis, are delivering that, then we can have a different rate discussion. And we will then contract incentives and penalties around agreed service parameters. We are saying if we dont deliver the product that we have promised then we are willing to accept a penalty as long as there is an incentive for us when we perform better than contracted. We have such mechanisms in some of our contracts today, and it is the direction we want to take the dialogue with customers. Improving transparency Mr Christiansen says that to improve the level of service it also needs to improve the transparency between carrier and terminal. He explains that if the terminal operator and carrier share more information, then the terminal can better prepare for the vessel arrival and if there are issues at the terminal then the shipping line can be alerted before the vessel arrives. He likens the situation to a Formula One pit stop, with the driver and pit crew sharing information in order to make the stop as smooth as possible. One other challenge that comes with a change of strategy is achieving internal buy-in. It is not always easy to convince the team from one terminal to change the way they have been running the operation. The strategy has been building up from an inclusive approach so weve had the terminal teams and the subject matter experts heavily involved in building the strategy, he says. That was very important to get the buy-in, so its not a headquarters imposed strategy. APM Terminals biggest customer is Maersk Line, which accounts for around 50% of its volumes, so it is important that its sister company is prepared to pay for the improved service levels that the new strategy will bring. A recent analysis by Alphaliner suggested that APM Terminals had the lowest earnings, before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, of the leading operators. APM Terminals refuted the suggestion that this low margin was caused by Maersk Line paying lower port tariffs than other lines. The terminal operator says the margin is lower due to the fact that its rivals have flagship terminals with high port tariffs. Meanwhile, APM Terminals says it has a broader global portfolio with no flagship terminal, and has a significant presence in the US and Europe, with 22 of its existing terminals located in these mature markets. Nonetheless, the fact that Maersk Line is the terminal operators largest customer means its response to the initiative is important. Maersk Line has been quite open to this concept for a while but others are also opening up to this discussion, says Mr Christiansen. We need to get in earlier even before the network is planned and influence their port decision and that requires that we have access to not only the procurement organisation but also the service and network organisation. We have what we call a key client managers set-up, where for each alliance we have a number of key client managers that support the alliances on a global level. But you could say Maersk Line was the first carrier that was open to this different commercial approach. Christiansen: We are going much more towards a global way of working. CBS EXECUTIVE MBA IN SHIPPING & LOGISTICS EXECUTIVE MBA IN SHIPPING AND LOGISTICS (THE BLUE MBA) Fulfil your ambition to reach the top with the worlds premier Executive MBA designed specifically for busy professionals in the shipping and logistics industrys. Work through the internet from anywhere in the world on this unique module-based shipping and logistics EMBA, joining up for just 8 one-week sessions spread over 22 months. Class start: September 2015. www.cbs.dk/mbs HAPAG-Lloyds imposing head office overlooking the Alster lake in central Hamburg is the epitome of traditional values and a proud pedigree. The prime location on the prestigious Ballindamm, and spacious entrance hall with its marble floors, columns and double- height ceiling, are designed to impress. But if that impression is of a company locked in the past, then it would be a misleading one. For behind the classic facade, Hapag- Lloyd is embracing change. Indeed, 2014 is on course to be a landmark year for Germanys largest container line. The city of Hamburg and other German interests, including the freight-forwarding entrepreneur and billionaire Klaus-Michael Khne, may have fought hard to keep Hapag-Lloyd out of foreign hands six years ago, but this is not a company refusing to adapt to a rapidly changing world. Conversely, it is that willingness to be flexible that has enabled the shipowner to survive some tumultuous times. Hapag-Lloyd was formed in 1970 as a result of the merger of Hamburg- Amerikanische Packetfahrt-Actien- Gesellschaft and North German Lloyd. But the origins of those two lines go back much further, with Hapag founded in Hamburg in 1847 by local merchants and NDL set up in Bremen in 1857. Both lost their fleets twice, after World Wars One and Two. In more recent years, Hapag-Lloyd has developed into one of the most successful container lines in the world, with former chairman Hans-Jakob Kruse who died earlier this year instrumental in its success. Yet over the past decade, the Hamburg line has lost ground to three other European carriers: Maersk Line, Mediterranean Shipping Co and CMA CGM. None of those have such a long and illustrious history as Hapag-Lloyd, yet the trio now dominates the global container trades and seems to be pulling ahead of the rest despite being forced to abandon the P3 vessel-sharing agreement after a veto from China. The acquisition of CP Ships in 2005 pushed Hapag-Lloyd from 13th place to number five in the world, but it has since slipped back to sixth place. Moreover, fleet capacity is only around a third of that of either Maersk or MSC, despite a newbuilding programme with a series of 13,200 teu ships recently delivered. Yet more than ever, size matters, says Michael Behrendt, who stepped down as chief executive at the end of June. Long gone are the days when a line could be ranked, say, 14th or 15th in the world and still make a very comfortable living as a global operator or large regional player. With little control over prices, carriers can only improve their bottom line through a tight grip on expenses, and that means the cheapest slot-costs possible, best achieved through economies of scale. Hapag-Lloyds financial results have been relatively lacklustre compared with industry leader Maersk, with the line posting a loss in the first quarter of the year. Admittedly, several other carriers were also in the red, but the Danish line is proving that it is possible to make money, even in difficult trading conditions. So can Hapag-Lloyd reverse the trend and close the gap on the industry leaders, both in terms of profitability and fleet size? CHANGES AT THE TOP/HAPAGLLOYD CARRIERS www.containershipping.com CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL 23 July/August 2014 How will new shareholders and a change of management inuence the culture and future direction of Hapag-Lloyd, asks Janet Porter CLOSING THE GAP Former Hapag-Lloyd chief executive Michael Behrendt and his successor Rolf Habben Jansen pictured at a farewell reception In Hamburg for the outgoing chief executive and Ulrich Kranich. Photo: Hapag-Lloyd CARRIERS CHANGES AT THE TOP /HAPAGLLOYD 24 CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL www.containershipping.com July/August 2014 Finishing touches Having made it clear that Hapag-Lloyd had to grow and that he had a hitlist of merger or acquisition targets, Mr Behrendt rounded off his 13 years as head of the line by putting the finishing touches to a merger with the container shipping arm of Chiles Compaa Sud Americana de Vapores to form what will be the worlds fourth-largest container line in terms of capacity, with some 200 ships totalling 1m teu. The deal is not expected to be concluded until November, once regulatory clearance is obtained, but the shareholders of each line have already given their consent to the tie-up. But that is unlikely to be the end of the expansion drive, with Mr Behrendt saying that the line will then turn its attention to the Asia-Pacific region where it sees the need to have a stronger presence. Once the CSAV deal is completed, Mr Behrendt will join the supervisory board as chairman, replacing Jrgen Weber, who decided to step down early in order to ensure continuity during the integration process. Although little planning can be done until antitrust authorities have given the green light, the priority is to move as fast as possible, with Mr Behrendt hoping the two businesses will be fully amalgamated within the year. This will not be a democratic process, with Hapag-Lloyd learning from its takeover of CP Ships which it feels went well and less successful industry mergers such as that of P&O Containers and Royal Nedlloyd, that one side has to be in control. In the case of the CSAV deal, the headquarters will be in Hamburg, with Valparaiso becoming a major regional office, as the German line takes charge and retains its national identity. CSAV will become a major shareholder in Hapag-Lloyd, with an eventual stake of 34%. That will enable other investors, who have been looking for an exit route since coming to the rescue of Hapag- Lloyd in 2008 after principal shareholder Tui said it wanted to sell, to reduce their interests. The city of Hamburg, through the Hamburger Gesellschaft fr Vermgens und Beteiligungsmanagement consortium, will be able to cut its stake from almost 37% to just over 23%, while Mr Khnes interest will go down from 28.2% to 20.8%. Tui will own 14% of the equity at the end of this process, against 22% now. The goal is to then have an initial public offering within a year of the merger, with a minority stake in the new entity to be sold to new shareholders. But the basic ownership structure will still be very different from that of the top three, which are each in the control of powerful and hands-on families. That is particularly the case for MSC and CMA CGM, which are able to benefit from a fast decision-making process. Many in the industry are convinced that the failure of most Asian lines to keep abreast of their European rivals is down to internal bureaucracy that prevents a rapid response to market conditions or investment opportunities. Mr Behrendt rejects the idea that Hapag-Lloyds more splintered ownership, both now and in the future, will be a handicap as it strives to catch up with market leaders. I am very happy with the time our decision making process takes when it was necessary to be fast, we always could be, but some rules and double-checks are needed. I like to be spontaneous, but if I invest billions I like to think twice, he said in a wide- ranging interview with Containerisation International. Growth potential Speaking just days before retiring from the chief executive position and taking a few months break, Mr Behrendt considered whether Hapag-Lloyd and Hamburg Sd would ever merge, after two failed attempts, one as recently as last year. It could be possible, but it is not a priority on our agenda, he said, with CSAV now giving greater access to the South American markets, which would have been the main reason for teaming up with Hamburg Sd. Instead, the merger and acquisition focus is likely to switch to the Asia- Pacific region where Hapag-Lloyd sees growth potential. Asked if Hapag-Lloyd had been invited to team-up with the other three European lines to form what would have been the P4 vessel-sharing agreement, Mr Behrendt said there had never been an approach. As a member of the G6 alliance along with five Asian lines, Hapag-Lloyd is fully committed to that consortium, he said. Hapag-Lloyd is not only about to gain a new major shareholder, but a different team of senior executives as well, with Mr Behrendt being succeeded by Rolf Habben Jansen, the former head of AP Moller-Maersks freight forwarding subsidiary, Damco. A Dutch national, he will also be the first non-German to run Hapag-Lloyd. He will be supported by Anthony Firmin, who has taken over from Ulrich Kranich as chief operating officer, and who is British. So Hapag-Lloyd may on the face of it remain a quintessentially German company. But behind the scenes, Ballin House is taking on a very international flavour through its new Chilean shareholder and foreign top management that promise to bring cultural diversity to this pillar of the Hamburg establishment. Ulrich Kranich, Michael Behrendt, Christine and Klaus-Michael Khne at the event in Hamburg Photo: Hapag-Lloyd Host Sponsor Global Port Partner Supported by Sponsors Industry Partners Global Media Sponsor Organised by 10-11 December 2014 The Auditorium Santa Cruz de Tenerife www.toc-marketbrieng.com NEW Conference & Networking event in Tenerife Maximising West Africas Trade Potential 3 2 day conference 3 Ice-breaker drinks reception 3 Port tour 3 Gala dinner 3 Exhibit area Apply by 5 th September 2014 to SAVE 100/US$160 DELIVERED BY PART-TIME DISTANCE LEARNING OVER 12 WEEKS - COMMENCES 21 ST OCTOBER 2014 CONTAINER TERMINAL OPERATION & MANAGEMENT FUNDAMENTALS OF www.ibc-academy.com/FLR2473AA103 Tel: +44 (0)20 7017 7636 / +1 (646) 957 8929 Email: ibc-academy@informa.com VIP code FLR2473AA103 THE VIEW FROM THE BRIDGE INSIGHT FROM THE CSUITE/GRANT DALY A MAJOR challenge for modern container shipping lines is how to differentiate themselves from their competitors. The growth of shipping line alliances means that although a customer may book space from one carrier, the container could actually move on the vessel of another shipping line entirely. This makes it increasingly difficult for lines to compete with each other based on the reliability of services. Instead, ocean carriers are competing on the softer side, or people side, of the business, differentiating themselves through the level of customer service they are able to provide. Safmarine chief executive Grant Daly says that this is nothing new for the AP Moller- Maersk-owned carrier. Changing times Mr Daly, who is South African, has seen a lot of changes during his time at Safmarine. He joined the shipping line in 1994, prior to the takeover by Maersk in 1999, after graduating from the University of Stellenbosch with a Bachelor of Economics degree. He has worked in a variety of roles, initially joining as part of a newly established development team, which was tasked with expanding beyond the four trades it was active in at the time. He says it was a fantastic time to be involved in the business because of the rapid growth phase that the industry was going through. Mr Daly then moved to Belgium to help with the integration of Belgian MAKING A DIFFERENCE Safmarine chief executive Grant Daly talks to Damian Brett about the importance of service dierentiation shipping line CMB-T, which Safmarine fully acquired in 1996. Following the acquisition by AP Moller- Maersk, Mr Daly moved to Singapore to look after Safmarines Far East region and to establish its own agency network. He then moved to the Middle East for six years, before returning to Singapore, just in time for the global financial crisis. Mr Daly describes this time as challenging, and says it was a new experience. The focus there was on efficiency and cost of operation, making sure we maintained our customer focus 100%, and on getting our cost-to-serve competitive. He was there for two years before being posted to the companys headquarters in Antwerp where he headed up the multipurpose unit. Change of headquarters Soon after his arrival in Antwerp, it was announced that Safmarines headquarters would be moved to Copenhagen in 2012, where the AP Moller-Maersk group is based. It was during this move that Mr Daly was made chief executive. While the headquarters move could be seen as another step towards Safmarine being assimilated into the Maersk group, Mr Daly insists the opposite is true, stressing that the move was only about creating efficiencies in the back office. The groups container business consists of six brands, Maersk Line, MCC, Seago Line, Mercosul, Sealand and Safmarine, each offering its own products, services and approach to customers depending on the market they are selling to. However, they share IT platforms, work processes and back office functions, while Safmarine shares the Maersk Line network. Mr Daly says that since Safmarine was acquired by Maersk 14 years ago, it has delivered a profit every year apart from 2009 and 2011, when the industry was hugely affected by the global financial crisis. Part of dealing with the pressure we came under in 2011 was focusing on our costs and our efficiency and being more effective with our resourcing, he says. One opportunity we had, that possibly others didnt have, was being part of a bigger group meant there were non-customer facing functions that we could leverage, be that finance or operations as two examples. The profitability during that period and the absolute need to make sure that we focused on costs, while not devaluing our focus on the market and customers, is really what led to that decision [to move headquarters]. Its a move that we believe has been a successful one. The business performance in the last two-and-a-half years has justified that. He adds that the move should be placed in the context that Safmarine is a global operator, although it focuses on two core regions. Where we steer the business from is not really relevant, he says. 26 CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL www.containershipping.com July/August 2014 www.containershipping.com CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL 27 July/August 2014 THE VIEW FROM THE BRIDGE INSIGHT FROM THE CSUITE /GRANT DALY GRANT Daly joined Safmarine in 1994 after graduating from the University of Stellenbosch with a Bachelor of Economics degree. As part of a newly established development unit, Mr Daly was tasked with expanding Safmarine activities into areas beyond the traditional trade lanes. In 2000, he relocated to Singapore as Far East regional manager and in 2002 moved to Dubai as Middle East area manager. In 2003, he assumed the role of regional executive for west central Asia, responsible for Safmarine activities within the Middle East and south Asia. Mr Daly was then appointed as Safmarine regional executive for the Asia region in August 2008. In October 2010, he moved to Antwerp to become Safmarines MPV (Multi Purpose Vessel Division) executive. In February 2012 Mr Daly commenced his role as the chief executive officer for Safmarine, based in Copenhagen. PATH TO THE TOP THE VIEW FROM THE BRIDGE INSIGHT FROM THE CSUITE /GRANT DALY 28 CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL www.containershipping.com July/August 2014 Business growth Mr Daly and his colleague, Safmarine global head of strategy and customer insight Russell Gillespie, point out that since Safmarine joined Maersk, volumes have increased five-fold. This would not have been possible had it not been part of the wider group, they say. Mr Daly says being part of the Danish shipping conglomerate has also allowed it to concentrate on developing the customer side of the business. It has had to differentiate from Maersk Line for years, he says, even though they share the same ships and network. The difference [between Maersk Line and Safmarine] really is in the customer experience, he says. We have the benefit of having access to the best of both worlds. We have access to arguably one of the best product networks and infrastructures available, but at the same time we are focused entirely with our 1,100 Safmariners [the name given to Safmarine employees] around the world with our customer engagement. We also see increasing operational consolidation in the industry. You see the G6 Alliance and the CKYHE expanding and the challenge we all face is how to differentiate yourself and that has been our focus for the last 14 years. I wont proclaim to have the answer to that, but I think we have taken some decent strides on how we tackle that. So, how exactly does Safmarine differentiate itself from its competitors? Mr Daly says that the differentiation really comes down to the behaviour of its staff. The activity and the commitment of your people and importantly the consistency of that approach is how we differentiate, he says. We spend a lot of time with our people looking at how we do things, as well as what we do. The what is the hardware; the product and the network, but the how is equally important and that really is where the culture comes into play. In order to create a Safmarine culture, it has established principles that give employees guidelines on how to behave in the Safmarine way, implemented e-learning programmes and staff are given face-to-face training in classrooms or at their desks. The reefer sector, an area where Safmarine is particularly strong, also faces challenges. Supply and demand is one of the industrys main challenges, next to the macroeconomy, and that has an influence on price and over the past decade there has been deflation in freight rates, even though operational costs have increased, he says. Freight rates have, overall, come down and reefer rates are no exception to that in terms of the capacity that is available and the conditions in the local market. South Africa is a very big reefer market in the Safmarine world and the grape season has its challenges with weather and labour strikes, which influences utilisation and then influences pricing. On the flip side of that the citrus It also uses social media to share stories and best practice. Mr Gillespie explains further, although he says much of what it does is unconventional for a shipping line. One example is Safmarine employees calling each other out, he says, meaning that if someone does something that doesnt fit in with the Safmarine culture, other members of staff will shout out thats not the Safmarine way. Its about how we engage with the customer, or how we solve a problem, Mr Gillespie says. A lot of it is about the behaviour because our competitors also have good ships. And it comes down to the behaviour and so we said lets do some training on that. We would create a scenario for instance rolling a customers cargo and ask how would you deal with that? On one side, you are going to have to deal with the processes and the systems but on the other side, how will you advise the customer? Business performance This year volumes have been continuing to grow at a good clip, says Mr Daly. We are fortunate in many ways in the footprint we operate in and the focus of our business. We have two core regions that we focus on, being Africa and west central Asia and Indian sub-continent, and its the trade to and from those regions, not exclusively the trade within those regions. The growth in those core areas is slightly ahead of what we would expect global growth to be. Africa is of course closer to 6%, China has slowed down a bit but its growth rate is higher than many of the other regions at around 7%. In terms of freight rates and vessel utilisation levels, the story Mr Daly tells is similar to that of the overall Maersk picture, as it shares the network and its financial results are rolled into those of the various brands. He says that industry-wide utilisation levels are lower than past levels, and as a result so are freight rates. Meanwhile, Maersk hasnt increased its container tonnage over the last two years and volume growth means that its utilisation levels have actually increased. www.containershipping.com CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL 29 July/August 2014 THE VIEW FROM THE BRIDGE INSIGHT FROM THE CSUITE /GRANT DALY season is quite strong right now and we are finding it a challenge to make sure equipment is available and that then increases pricing. But with the future of the shipping line based very much around its customer service offering, how is the company looking to develop in the years to come? Mr Daly says the future is based on ensuring service consistency as volumes grow. Our priority is understanding what it is that makes that difference and making sure that we have scalability in our resourcing to ensure that our customers receive a certain level of experience from us, he says. So, we are building scale and developing the service delivery and consistency to make sure we do those things the Safmarine way. On the rise: since Safmarine joined Maersk, it has seen a five-fold volume increase. Industry-wide vessel utilisation levels are lower than in the past, says Mr Daly, and as a result so are freight rates. 30 CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL www.containershipping.com July/August 2014 WHEN it comes to ordering containerships, timing is everything. Order when the market is at its peak and the company could end up paying too much, pushing up slot costs, but conversely it can be hard to find funding when the market is at the bottom. One company that knows all about ordering ships is United Arab Shipping Co. Currently, Lloyds List Intelligence ranks it at number 17 in the world in terms of the capacity of its live fleet, which stands at 55 ships for 329,649 teu. At the time of writing, its orderbook stood at 17 vessels representing 272,300 teu six ships of 18,800 teu and 11 with a 14,500 teu capacity. When it takes delivery of these vessels, its fleet will be the tenth-largest in the world and it will have access to some of the biggest ships on the ocean its LNG-ready, 18,800 teu behemoths. When asked about its future plans for vessel orders, UASC chief executive Jorn Hinge jokes that the line has spent all its money. Right now we have no further plans, he says. This is it now. It looks like a huge order and it is a big order compared with the size we are coming from. Timing the order Mr Hinge says that traditionally, UASC has ordered at the top of the market, but there has been a change in approach this time round. If you look back in history and see how we have bought in the past, we have always managed to buy at the top of the market. We have always bought when we are making good money and of course at that time ship prices are very expensive. Although he couldnt explain past decisions, as he was not involved in the process, he says that UASC was not alone in ordering at the top of the market. At any company, it is easier to get your boss to give you money when things are going well, he explains. But shipping is a cyclical industry and if you want to maximise your asset prices you should invest counter- cyclically; in other words, when things look bleak. This is not easy to do as people will question why you are investing money when things are bad. We were not the only ones, it is human nature. He points to 2007 and 2008 when shipowners bought ships like crazy even though prices were high. This view appears to be backed by figures from VesselsValue. The value of a 7,000 teu containership largely considered one of the workhorse ship sizes on the east-west trades over the last few years reached a peak in 2008 before declining in 2009 and then picking up again in 2010 and 2011. UASCs chief executive Jorn Hinge reveals the strategy behind the lines newbuilding investment programme to Damian Brett THE ART OF ORDERING ANALYSIS/UASC CARRIERS USACs 14,000 teu containerships Ain Snan, left, and Malik Al Ashtar, both built in 2012. www.containershipping.com CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL 31 July/August 2014 Figure 1: Value of 7,000 teu containerships Source: VesselsValue and Clarkson Research ANALYSIS/UASC CARRIERS This is in line with an increase in year-on-year global volume growth in percentage terms in 2010 and 2011, before growth tailed off again in 2012 and 2013. Vessel ownership The carrier ranking table also points to another interesting development linked to Mr Hinges suggestion that it is better to order counter-cyclically; the largest three shipping lines all have a clear majority owner, making it easier for them push through vessel orders when the time is right. Conversely, shipping lines with a disparate ownership structure may find it harder to push orders quickly through the corporate system, making it more difficult to capitalise on opportunities when they present themselves. And it was recently revealed that UASC now has a majority owner, with the worlds biggest exporter of LNG, Qatar, taking a 51.3% stake. Previously, the company was owned by Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with no one country having a controlling interest. Mr Hinge says that ordering vessels counter-cyclically also has other benefits. [At the market peak] the shipyards are interested in simply building the same ship every time, he explains. If they could build the same ship forever, they would be very happy because that means lower costs and higher profits. So when the market is busy, they have standard designs they are happy to sell and if you start making requests and asking to make changes they say please step aside and let the next person come forward. This time we were able to come into the market when the shipyards were fairly hungry and therefore they were willing to look at doing things they would not normally do and of course we were able to order at a reasonable price, which we would not have got if we ordered at the top of the market. All of them were willing to look at new things and go out of the way to try and fulfil the crazy ideas we had. And thats why we ended up with what we have; some very efficient ships that are able to use LNG. This is all part and parcel of entering the market at a time when the shipyards are not too busy. All the benefits, half the headaches Another key to ordering vessels particularly ultra-large ships is making sure you are able to fill them. To get round this challenge UASC partnered with China Shipping Container Line, with the Chinese carrier ordering five 19,000 teu ships. This is enough for the carriers to operate a string on the Asia-Europe trade using vessels of that size. He says: By creating this arrangement with China Shipping, we still have the benefit of having 18,000 teu ships, but we only have half the headache. You could say it is like having a 9,000 teu ship but getting the cost benefits of having a 18,000 teu ship. At present, UASC is keeping its options open on what to do with the 14,000 teu vessels it has on order, although Mr Hinge says they will probably be used on the Asia-Europe trade lane as well. So with the shipping line set to enter the top 10 in the world in terms of capacity, is this what motivated the shipping line to expand its fleet? We are not targeting the top 10 in terms of capacity, he says Wed like to be one of the most profitable, but size isnt that interesting to us. Its much nicer to make a nice return on your investment than to be number 10 or 11 or whatever number. That said, profitability and fleet size arent exclusive. We have invested in bigger ships to try and reduce our unit costs. So we have invested a large amount in bigger ships and technology. We will also redeliver some ships of course. Today, we have 30 panamax ships and we wont have that many in the future, I hope. Hinge: Shipyards were willing to look at new things and go out of the way to try and fulfil the crazy ideas we had. Source: Clarkson Research Services and VesselsValue.com VALUE OF 7,000 TEU BOXSHIP 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0 20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 40 60 80 140 120 100 160 180 4 -9.2 13.1 7.2 3.2 4.7 5.8 V o l u m e
g r o w t h
% $ m Value of 7,000 teu boxship Global container volumes year-on-year growth 32 CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL www.containershipping.com July/August 2014 TEMPERS are fraying at Valencia as some of the biggest names in shipping become embroiled in lawsuits over terminal concession agreements and allegations of broken promises. One of Spains top terminal operators is taking legal action against the port authority, with Mediterranean Shipping Co at the centre of the various disputes. But what is happening in Valencia is symptomatic of a crisis engulfing all Spanish ports, most of which are plagued by over-capacity and declining volumes as carriers switch to cheaper alternatives in other parts of the Mediterranean. At the heart of the problem is the lack of a national strategy, say local business leaders, leaving Spain with 28 separate port authorities, each with their own investment plans. In total, there are 46 ports, many quite close to each other, and yet 75% of container traffic moves through just three Algeciras, Valencia and Barcelona. With so much traffic handled by Spanish ports consisting of transhipment cargo, there is plenty of competition from other facilities in the region, including Italys Gioia Tauro, Maltas Marsaxlokk, Portugals Sines, and Moroccos Tangiers. These are mostly cheaper than Spanish ports that, often burdened by high debt levels and relatively expensive labour, are being priced out of the market, according to the regional offices of global liner companies. Global carriers are looking for the minimum deviation from the main Asia- north Europe trade lanes, leaving Valencia in a particularly vulnerable position because of its location and high charges. Costs have to be drastically reduced, otherwise the volumes will move away, the Valencia-based head of a major Asian line told Containerisation International. It makes more sense to discharge transhipment cargo elsewhere and then move containers by feeder to Valencia. It is against this backdrop that Noatum Ports, owned by the asset management arm of banking heavyweight JP Morgan, is seeking financial redress from Autoridad Portuaria de Valencia which may have to pay out several million dollars in compensation. Noatum owns one of the two common- user terminals in Valencia, acquired when it bought the Spanish group Dragados in 2010. The other is run by TCV Stevedoring, while the third container facility in Valencia is MSCs dedicated terminal, MSCTV. Noatum is challenging the right of MSCTV to handle ships that are not controlled by Like many of Spains ports, Valencia is plagued by overcapacity and declining volumes as carriers switch to cheaper alternatives, reports Janet Porter CRISIS IN VALENCIA MEDITERRANEAN/VALENCIA PORTS Photo: APV www.containershipping.com CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL 33 July/August 2014 MEDITERRANEAN/VALENCIA PORTS the Geneva-headquartered line, claiming that this contravenes the concession terms set by APV. APV insists that vessels belonging to other companies are not allowed to use the MSC terminal as though it was a public terminal, but says ships belonging to MSC alliance partners are still permitted. The terms of the concession allow for the handling of ships that are operated by MSC or in service on MSC lines, according to APV. Noatum and TCV are contesting APVs interpretation of the concession rights, arguing that only MSC ships should be allowed to use the private terminal. Both have lost business as MSC moved more of its own cargo through its own terminal or via non-Spanish transhipment hubs, and started to accept alliance partner ships at MSCTV. MSC has a wide range of port investments through its subsidiary Terminal Investments Ltd. Last year, the company sold a 35% stake to Global Infrastructure Partners for just over $1.9bn. Under a 12-year contract with Noatum Container Terminal Valencia, called Marvalsa at the time when owned by Dragados, MSC agreed to 900,000 moves a year, of which 35% would be domestic traffic. In return Marvalsa promised to provide eight quay cranes and prioritise 800 m of berth for MSC. However, MSC throughput has fallen sharply over the past three years, with moves down to just 590,000 in 2013. As well as legal action against APV over volume guarantees, this development is now the subject of a separate arbitration between MSC and Noatum, although neither side will discuss the case at this stage. There is a long history to this issue concerning the MSC private terminal and the objections of the public terminals, as the public terminals correctly foresaw that MSC would simply maximise all the volume in its own terminal and leave behind the worst cargo and overflow cargo in the public terminals, Douglas Schultz, chief executive of Noatum Ports and Maritime, told Containerisation International. That has left NCTV and TCV with a greater share of less lucrative transhipment cargo and empties. For the past year, there has frequently been a queue of MSC vessels outside the port waiting for space at MSCTV, sometimes for up to 36 hours, even though there is capacity to handle them elsewhere in Valencia, according to Mr Schultz. However, the port authority argues that it does not decide which terminal should handle a vessel in the port under its jurisdiction, or which quay a ship must berth at. That decision rests with the dictates of the free market, says APV. The role of APV is limited to either refusing berthing or suggesting alternative berthing arrangements to those which are indicated on the Unified Vessel Dispatch Document, on account of, among other reasons, matters concerning the regulation of maritime traffic, technical difficulties, incompatible goods, or the incompatibility of the intended activity and the concession titles that are said to cover it. Noatums facility could handle up to 4.5m teu a year, and yet current throughput is around 1m moves. The company estimates that MSC volumes through its Valencia terminal amount to less than 50% of the contract commitment in 2014. In support of its claim, Noatum says it has been assured by Maersk Line that none of its vessels will be put under the control of MSC. If so, Maersk ships would not be eligible to call at MSCTV. Noatum also contends that APV has changed the guidelines covering the MSCTV concession agreement, without consultation. The company first wrote a formal letter setting out its concerns last September after a series of meetings, but was unable to reach any sort of settlement, and so instigated court action. Noatum claims that APV has in effect converted what is meant to be a private terminal into a public facility. The latter have their tariffs regulated by the port authority, whereas MSCTV has no such oversight, and can charge what it likes. Although the planned P3 alliance between Maersk, MSC and CMA CGM is no longer going ahead, Noatum still wants a clear ruling on the status of ships deployed within a consortium, and whether or not MSCTV is entitled to handle these. Regardless of P3, the problem still persists, says Mr Schultz, since non-MSC vessels currently calling at MSCTV are not deployed on east-west services that P3 would have covered, but elsewhere such as the Mediterranean-east coast, South America and north Europe-east Mediterranean trades. And, of course, two of the P3 partners, Maersk and MSC, are now planning to start the 2M vessel-sharing agreement next year, suggesting that disputes over who has the right to handle whose ships have not gone away. Maersk E-class vessel at NCTV. Noatum and TCV are contesting APVs interpretation of terminal concession rights. Schultz: There is a long history to this issue... and the objections of the public terminals. 34 CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL www.containershipping.com July/August 2014 LONDON may still be one of the worlds premier maritime hubs, underpinned by the diverse range of world-class professional services available for shipowners, but most container lines have moved their offices out of the capital to less expensive locations that are also closer to customers. For many, Liverpool is the city of choice for sales, marketing and back-office activities, even if their ships do not call there. The well-trained workforce with plenty of shipping knowhow because of Liverpools strong maritime roots along with cheaper rents and lower overheads than in the south, are undoubtedly helping Merseyside to establish itself as an important regional centre for the industry. This summer has also brought additional attention to the north-west because of the International Festival of Business during June and July, including a fortnight of events focused on the maritime sector. Vistors to Liverpool during this period included UK Prime Minister David Cameron, while Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne contributed to the debate about the need to create a northern powerhouse of linked cities in the region that would be able to create an industrial counterbalance to Londons vibrant economy. With the citys port also being redeveloped in anticipation of much larger containerships entering the Atlantic trades, Containerisation International and sister publication Lloyds List hosted a debate in Liverpool to discuss the citys maritime future. The main question was whether it can regain its place in the global economy, given the potential impact on shipping patterns of an enlarged Panama Canal, the deployment of ships of 18,000 teu or more and the creation of super-alliances between carriers, notwithstanding Chinas ban on the P3 Network between the big three lines. Another hot topic was the likely impact of the low-sulphur fuel rules that will come into effect next year. While UK east coast ports will fall inside the emissions control area, ships calling at west coast ports will not be affected. Sponsored by Peel Ports, the debate attracted more than 60 business leaders from the shipping and ports community to the brand new 30 James Street hotel, housed in the former headquarters of White Star Line, owner of the ill-fated Titanic. Shipping lines represented included Maersk, Mediterranean Shipping Co, CMA CGM , Evergreen, Hamburg Sd, CSAV, NYK, Atlantic Container Line, Independent Container Line, MacAndrews, Seago, Bibby and Borchard. Peel Ports chief executive officer Mark Whitworth, ACLs president Andrew Abbott, MacAndrews inter-European trades general manager Mark Copsey and MDS Transmodals managing director Mike Garratt joined the panel chaired by former APL senior executive David Appleton, now principle of the consultancy firm Focus Maritime, to discuss the key issues of the moment concerning both Liverpool and the broader industry. Bigger and better THE message from Peel Ports Mr Whitworth was that Liverpools much- anticipated 300m ($500m) second container terminal, Liverpool 2, is on course to open at the end of next year. He said the construction works were bang on time, despite one or two hairy Containerisation International debate reveals industry interest in north-west port LIVERPOOL IN FOCUS THE DEBATE/LIVERPOOL EVENTS Mark Whitworth from Peel Ports explains the benefits of Liverpool as ACLs Andrew Abbott and Mike Garratt from MDS Transmodal look on. www.containershipping.com CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL 35 July/August 2014 THE DEBATE/LIVERPOOL EVENTS moments during the storms that battered the UK last winter. Peel Ports hopes bigger ships of up to 13,500 teu, expected to enter the Atlantic trades once an expanded Panama Canal is completed, will start calling at Liverpool. We need a deepsea container terminal that will be able to accommodate the largest vessels that sail today, and we need to futureproof that to ensure it can accommodate the vessels of tomorrow, said Mr Whitworth. That could include ships of 18,000 teu or more, given a little time to prepare. The biggest now are around 4,000 teu because of lock restrictions. Peel Ports plan is not just construction of a standalone terminal, however, but to make it the centrepiece of a much larger Atlantic Gateway project, consisting of an economic pipeline that brings together Liverpool and Manchester, two of the most powerful cities in the north of England. These are already joined by the Manchester Ship Canal, now owned by Peel Ports. The cream on the cake, said Mr Whitworth, will be a wider Panama Canal that will add a new dynamic and change the thinking of deepsea shipping lines. Quizzed about possible overcapacity among UK ports, following the recent opening of London Gateway and expansion at Felixstowe and Southampton, Mr Whitworth said the planning behind L2 was never solely about additional capacity. It was about enabling the market to behave much more naturally to enable us to take back our natural market share, he said. This natural market share is something that Independent Container Line chief executive John Kirkland feels has been key to his companys success in the city and in the region. We have been able to bring the customers away from the southern ports back to their natural gateway here in Liverpool, he said. ACL president Andrew Abbott, whose ships call at Liverpool, joined Mr Kirkland in giving a vote of confidence, not only to the new terminal but the port as a whole. Liverpool today is probably our David Balston from the UK Chamber of Shipping joins the debate. best-performing port and probably our most productive, and when you operate ships like ACL does, when its a combination of containers and ro-ro, there are very few places in the world that we can have them handled. The labour situation is probably the best we have in the whole of Europe and certainly better than anything in North America, making it easy to operate here. Burning issues LIVERPOOL and other west coast UK ports should benefit from new emissions regulations affecting the North and Baltic seas, although these gains will be eroded over time, panellists and delegates concluded. Speakers agreed that new restrictions requiring ships to burn fuel with a sulphur content of 0.1% in the Baltic Sea and North Sea as opposed to the current 1% limit would increase demand for UK west coast services, which avoid the need to burn the more costly fuel. MacAndrews Mark Copsey said: Certainly we will need to burn different fuel for our legs to the UK east coast and the Baltic and it will mean that the west coast UK ports will have an advantage on their door-to-door cost structure. Most of the business we do is door- to-door, so when we increase the rates for the southern ports, which we will have to do, then we will see more cargo go through the port of Liverpool. However, one attendee questioned whether the immediate gains could be maintained, given shippers increasing focus on environmental initiatives. Debate moderator David Appleton agreed, saying that although shipping lines may initially take a short-term view that services that do not need to burn more expensive fuel will benefit from the new regulation, shipper demand for green services could reverse this trend in the longer term. This view was shared by Mr Whitworth. Our customers are increasingly demanding green solutions in a variety of forms and in our view thats the right thing to do, he said. We could have a debate about whether Liverpool will have an advantage in the short term, but in the long term my view is that it will probably level out. Well be positioning ourselves to provide greener solutions. MDS Transmodal managing director Mike Garratt asked how long it would be before the Mediterranean and Irish Sea were subject to the same requirements. Clearly [the requirement] is inconsistent. Given that the argument for the sulphur-exclusion zones is human health, then clearly it is a little strange that parts of Europe are not included; why arent the Irish Sea and Mediterranean populations as important as the Baltic populations? Mr Abbott questioned the sense of imposing the requirement on shortsea operators. I can understand the rationale for deepsea trades but not for the shortsea guys because they are taking trucks off the road. This will make it less tenable for a shortsea operator because a trucker wont have that extra cost. 36 CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL www.containershipping.com July/August 2014 Container rates face period of unprecedented volatility EXCESSIVE container shipping supply will continue to drive volatile and bearish freight rates on key trades for some time, and a new round of orders for vessels as large as 24,000 teu could further disrupt the market, analysts told delegates attending Junes Container Supply Chain Conference at TOC Europe in London. Martin Dixon, head of research products at Drewry, said that growth in global demand of 3% last year was forecast to accelerate to 5% in 2014 and 2015 and 6% in 2016, but that this would not be enough to balance supply growth. The industry will fail to reach any sort of equilibrium until 2016, he said. The impact of this, Mr Dixon added, is that carriers will be forced to miss more sailings and impose frequent general rate increases, while also working through alliances to reduce capacity. Average freight rates fell 6% last year and we anticipate further falls this year, he said. He added that carriers have been managing this loss of revenue by curbing unit costs. Overcapacity will plague the industry for several years to come and unprecedented freight volatility will continue. Moffatt &Nichol maritime transport consultant and conference moderator John Fossey also predicted that excess capacity would continue for the next two years. Rates are falling and continuing to fall, he said. But what is more worrying is volatility. Higher and lower rates, peaks and troughs make planning harder. Ocean Shipping Consultants project director Andrew Penfold said the concentration of new orders on larger vessels was of most concern to those seeking more stability as it is prompting a cascade effect into secondary regional deepsea trades. Since 2010, we have seen a rapid increase in the average size of vessels on north-south trades. Generally speaking, the ports and terminals in these markets have not been ready for these vessels, which has resulted in upsets to schedules, he said. He also predicted that the size of the largest vessels in the global fleet would continue to grow. The technical jump from the largest 18,000 teu-class vessels now in operation to 24,000 teu ships is negligible and Mr Penfold predicts that vessel sizes will need to expand only marginally to around a length of 430 m and a width of 62 m. This, he said, would have a limited impact on draught because average box weights are light. The main technical challenges to making a major jump in boxship size are ensuring that such vessels are easy to manoeuvre and that quay walls are strong enough for the container gantries needed to handle them. Larger ships could mean fewer mainline ports of call, larger feeder vessels and more hub-and-spoke systems and liner alliances, Mr Penfold added. A new round of orders, perhaps not now, but maybe in 2016 or around then, he said, would skew the supply-demand forecasts of most analysts and add to the freight-rate volatility already disrupting global container shipping markets. Linton Nightingale covers the major talking points raised at this years TOC Europe conference as the container industry descends on the UK capital LONDON CALLING CONFERENCE/TOC EUROPE EVENTS Speakers address delegates at TOC Europe. www.containershipping.com CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL 37 July/August 2014 CONFERENCE/TOC EUROPE EVENTS P3 decision shows why shipping needs a global competition body THE decision by Chinas Ministry of Commerce to reject the proposed P3 alliance highlights the shipping industrys need for a global competition authority. That is the view of Anthony Woolich, a partner at Holman Fenwick Willan and competition law specialist, who believes that a competition authority responsible for the key decisions affecting the industry is becoming a necessity, given its global nature. The P3 deal is a classic example of how the industry would benefit hugely from there being a worldwide competition authority, Mr Woolich told this years conference. Having one authority looking at a transaction in one language with one timetable is far more efficient for everyone concerned. Weve seen over the last decade or so several examples of international deals that have been passed by some competition authorities across the world but not by others. As globalisation increases so does the case for having a worldwide competition authority. Shipping is a global industry to come, the same could be achieved at worldwide level, as what we have at the moment is different procedures, rules, timetables and different languages making things very difficult for business. Russias ports use cheap bunkers to win box calls SHIPPING lines are adding port calls at Russian ports to benefit from cheaper fuel prices, according to speakers at the conference. Delo Group chief financial officer Andrey Bubnov said Triple-E class vessels had called at the ports of Vladivostok and Vostochny in search of cheaper bunker fuel. Delo owns logistics company Global Container Services and stevedore Deloports. Novorossiysk was also benefiting from increased calls because of the trend, Mr Bubnov said. The bunkering factor is becoming more and more important. The larger the ship sizes, the more bunker fuel they can take on board both in absolute and relative terms, he said. If you see a comparison of Novorossiysk and and therefore the competition law of each relevant jurisdiction needs to be satisfied, so even if you pass the competitions tests and satisfy authorities in the US and Europe, as in the case of the P3 alliance, you may still fall foul of competition laws in other jurisdictions. With the P3 not only did they fall foul of the Chinese authorities... but they were still waiting for consent from Korea. Mr Woolich added that despite the competition authorities meeting in December to discuss the proposed P3 vessel-sharing agreement, their subsequent decisions show that this does not necessarily deliver a co-ordinated approach. We are still some way away from being able to have a worldwide competition authority, he said. But I do envisage that there could one day be an authority with representatives from all the main trading blocks that would make a world decision, just as the European Commission makes a decision on the very largest mergers affecting Europe. I would like to think that in the years Visiting the stands at TOC Europe. 38 CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL www.containershipping.com July/August 2014 CONFERENCE/TOC EUROPE EVENTS Istanbul, you can see there is a $200 per tonne difference between two neighbouring ports. Mr Bubnov said that in mid-June, intermediate fuel oil 180 cost around $452 per tonne in Novorossiysk, compared with $646 in Istanbul, $629 in Singapore and $630 in Rotterdam. Dynamar senior shipping consultant Dirk Visser said five services were bunkering in Vostochny, two from CMA CGM, two from Maersk Line and one from Zim. These services use vessels of 4,300 teu-8,800 teu, he said. Mr Bubnov added that the search for low-cost bunker fuel was part of a trend for increased competition on Russian trades, led by Maersk Line, Mediterranean Shipping Co and CMA CGM. He noted how the three carriers control more than 50% of the market. He said Maersk Line and MSC were also offering fixed transport tariffs for six months. Prices were pitched at, or just below, the breakeven point of their competitors. The carriers were able to do this by integrating trade flows from various international markets into single Russian services. He gave the example of a feeder service to St Petersburg that groups together citrus fruits from Morocco, bananas from Ecuador and furniture from Scandinavia. These carriers transhipment hubs were also closer to the Russian market with Maersk Line utilising Gdansk and MSC Istanbul and they had the larger vessels on the market to gain better economies of scale. At St Petersburg, for example, Maersk Line, MSC and CMA CGM used vessels with an average size of 2,700 teu compared with a market average of 1,500 teu. However, other carriers are fighting back by launching joint feeder services and extending their intra-European and intra-Mediterranean services to Russian ports and drawing their hubs closer to Russia. Evergreen and Cosco Container Lines are utilising Piraeus for transhipment. The lines are also expanding into intermodal services, offering port-to- door tariffs, in partnership with Russian logistics companies. In terms of container volume growth, speakers said the Russian market continued to have a mixed performance last year, ports on the Pacific and Black Sea growing by high single- and double-digit levels and ports in the Baltic Sea reporting largely flat volumes. Mr Bubnov said Delos Nutep terminal in Novorossiysk suffered a decline in volumes during the first part of the year, as a result of the roubles depreciation, but was catching up quickly. Conversely, exports increased by around 27% on-year this year in Novorossiysk and by 28% in Vladivostok. Larger containerships will push terminals to up their game THE growing number of larger vessels serving the major trades will increase pressure on terminal operators to maintain high levels of productivity and efficiency, according to a top maritime analyst. Addressing the audience at TOC Europe, Ocean Shipping Consultants project director Andrew Penfold said operators will have to lift their game if they are to remain competitive. Relatively little investment can transform the ability of a port to handle larger vessels and turn them round adequately, he said. As larger vessels come in, if a terminal is not productive or it is not efficient then the pressure will be on to drop that call or reduce the price of the service offered. Mr Penfold said box terminals will need to offer a minimum of 30-35 moves per hour per crane. If the terminal operator cannot deliver this, for whatever reason, then it is going to be in trouble, he said. Therefore, many terminals will be under increasing pressure to have the infrastructure in place to handle the worlds largest vessels or make better use of their existing facilities, explained Mr Penfold. However, container terminal and operators seem to be dealing with this pressure rather well. According to the latest Journal of Commerce Port Productivity report, all 20 of the worlds most productive terminals of which half are in China increased their levels of productivity last year. Drewrys Martin Dixon speaks at this years conference. C M Y CM MY CY CMY K 01662_CI_185X130_HR.pdf 2 2013/10/30 3:34 PM EVENTS CONFERENCE/TOC EUROPE 40 CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL www.containershipping.com July/August 2014 TRADE shows provide exhibitors with an ideal platform to launch new products and initiatives to the wider industry. TOC is no exception, with a host of companies showcasing European technology and innovation at this years show. Finnish crane manufacturer Kalmar announced that it had received an order for six hybrid straddle carriers from Antwerps MSC Home Terminal, due to be delivered later this year. This follows on from an order for seven of the hybrid carriers from Kalmar that the terminal received early 2014, including one new- generation hybrid unit. During the first month of their operation, MSC Home Terminal managed to reduce its straddle carrier fuel consumption by 37% when compared to conventional diesel-electric models, which if repeated throughout the year would help to cut carbon emissions by as much as 97 tonnes. Kalmar also took the opportunity to discuss the success of its port automation project alongside Navis at DP Worlds new London Gateway facility. The two parties, both part of Cargotec, have provided what they refer to as the operational backbone of the terminal, where container handling equipment consisting of Kalmars automated stacking cranes and shuttle carriers have been fully integrated with Navis N4 terminal operating system. At the time of going to press, Kalmar system had expanded to 20 ASC modules each with two cranes and 28 shuttle carriers, all integrated with the Navis N4 TOS and supported by two Kalmar reachstackers. Meanwhile, Belgian-based Camco Technologies unveiled its new millimetre- resolution camera solution designed specifically for terminal quay cranes. The Boxcatcher uses optical character recognition technology to read the IMDG class or IMO code of each container as well as detecting the presence of a seal. Fitted on a linear-table on either the legs or the beam of the crane, the Boxcatcher follows the moving container during the loading and discharging cycles taking high resolution stills of the containers credentials in the process. Camco confirmed that it already has a number of contracts to equip the system at terminals across the globe including two facilities operated by APM Terminals, one in Mexico and the other at its new Maasvlakte2 terminal. Elsewhere, Gaussin Manugistique revealed a number of products from its Automotive Terminal Trailer range that it feels have the potential to replace onsite tractors in the not so distant future. In a public demonstration, with pyrotechnics and space-age sounds to boot, the Gaussin team demonstrated the lifting capabilities of its brand new ATT and Automotive Intelligent Vehicle, showing the laying and removal of a container on a docking station. The French firm also confirmed that it had recently secured a deal to supply 30 hybrid-drive ATTS in Italy through its local affiliate Lenderlease. Finally, the Port Equipment Manufacturers Association, after two years in the development stages, introduced its new standardised interface between terminal operating and equipment control systems for container handling equipment. PEMA hopes that its standard interface will simplify the integration between equipment manufacturers, vendors and TOS suppliers. At TOC Europe, Finnish crane manufacturer Kalmar announced that it had received an order for six hybrid straddle carriers from Antwerps MSC Home Terminal. Industry exhibitors took the opportunity to showcase their latest innovations at the TOC Europe trade show, reports Linton Nightingale SHOW AND TELL BOX WORLD BRIEFING CARRIERS THE ongoing P3 saga has had a number of twists and turns over the last two months. First came the news that Chinas Ministry of Commerce had rejected the alliance of shipping giants Maersk Line, Mediterranean Shipping Co and CMA CGM. The US Federal Maritime Commission had given the alliance permission to go ahead, although it did intend to introduce a special monitoring programme, while Brussels said it did not plan to investigate the alliance before its launch. MofCom concluded that P3 would have been a close- knit alliance, in contrast to the loose tie-ups seen in existing practices, and that it would eliminate effective competition in the market, and may further raise the entry barrier to the international liner market, which may prevent any new competitive force... growing. In the case [of P3], the participants integrate all of their capacity in the east-west trades through a network centre, which makes itself essentially different from traditional shipping alliances in aspects including the form of co-operation, operational management and cost sharing, MofCom said in the official ruling that blocked the worlds biggest container alliance. MofCom said that the three lines combined would have retained a capacity share of 46.7% on the Asia-Europe trade lane, with Maersk Line, MSC and CMA CGM commanding 20.6%, 15.2% and 10.9% respectively. Just as the industry was understanding the implications of this development, Maersk Line and MSC announced that they would launch a vessel- sharing agreement named 2M on the Asia-Europe, transatlantic and transpacific trade lanes. The worlds top two lines said the 10-year deal would cover all three east-west trade lanes and include approximately 185 vessels with a capacity of 2.1m teu on 21 strings. The size of the new alliance is somewhat smaller than the P3 that would have consisted of around 255 vessels of 2.6m teu on 29 service loops. Maersk will be contributing some 110 ships, accounting for 55% of total 2M capacity, with all of its Triple-E ships scheduled to be deployed in the new arrangement. MSC will provide around 75 ships with a nominal 0.9m teu capacity to make up the remaining 45% share. Of the 21 strings, six will cover the Asia-North Europe trades: four the Asia- Mediterranean trades; four the Asia-US west coast: two the Asia-US east coast route: three the north Europe-US trades; and two the Mediterranean-US trades. 2M represents another positive step in our continual drive to enhance our operational network in terms of scope, scale, efficiency and reliability, said MSC vice president Diego Aponte. Our customers will be able to enjoy these benefits alongside the world class customer service that has FROM P3 TO 2M Following the failure of the P3 Network, Maersk Line and MSC have announced a new tie-up without CMA CGM, report Damian Brett and Janet Porter Maersk will be contributing some 110 ships, accounting for 55% of total 2M capacity, with all of its Triple-E ships scheduled to be deployed in the new arrangement. www.containershipping.com CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL 41 July/August 2014 www.tocevents-americas.com Who attends? Host Sponsor Host Sponsor Conference Sponsors Associate Sponsor Port Partner TECH TOC Sponsors Delegate Sponsors Industry Partners Latin American Partner Key Media Partner Expert speakers include 3 Ports 3 Terminals 3 Carriers 3 3PLs 3 Shippers Robbert van Trooijen CEO Latin America & Caribbean, Maersk Line Howard Finkel Executive Vice President Trade Division, COSCO Container Lines Americas Camila Camacho Rocha Area Manager Latin America, FloraHolland Enno Koll Head of Latin America, PSA Panama Giovanni Benedetti Commercial Director, Sociedad Portuaria Regional Cartagena (SPRC) Juan Carlos Hernandez Global Equipment and M&R Manager, Chiquita Poul Hestbaek SVP - Latin America West Coast & Caribbean, Hamburg Sd Richard Jordan SVP & Regional Head of Logistics Americas, Panalpina TOC Americas Conference: A New World Order Preparing for the Future of Container Shipping across Latin America & The Caribbean Conference | Port Tour | Networking | Exhibition | Free Seminars 14 16 October 2014 CCCI, Cartagena, Colombia Featuring Sponsorships & booths still available BOX WORLD BRIEFING been the cornerstone of our business since our formation in 1970. Maersk Line chief executive Sren Skou meanwhile said that the two lines shared the same ambition of the most efficient and effective operations possible. We will continue to provide our customers with competitive and reliable container shipping in the east-west trades at attractive prices, he said. To do so we have to be innovative and take out cost, while keeping a product that is best in class for our customers in terms of coverage, frequency and reliability. Our agreement with MSC is a step towards achieving all of these objectives in the east-west trades. Vessels deployed in the VSA will continue to be owned or chartered, and operated, by the two individual lines and the agreement will not include joint marine operations as it would have done for P3. Each party will execute their own operations including stowage, voyage planning and port operations. Neither does the VSA include any commercial tasks or responsibilities. Each party will continue to have fully independent sales, pricing, marketing, and customer service functions. A joint co-ordination committee will monitor the network on a daily basis. Maersk Line and MSC have already given notice to CMA CGM, with whom they currently cooperate in several vessel-sharing agreements in the east-west container trades, as they gear up for the launch of the new alliance next year. Mr Aponte told Containerisation International that six months notice had been given, although that could be shortened by common consent. Maersk Line will be terminating eight separate vessel-sharing or slot- exchange agreements with CMA CGM, with whom it had built up a strong working relationship in recent years. The two are together on four Asia-US loops, with MSC also a partner in two of those. The services that will be affected by VSA terminations are Maersks TP3/TP9 loop from Asia to the US via the Suez Canal; the TP2 and TP8 transpacific loops that involve MSC as well, and TP5 on which Maersk sells slots to CMA CGM. CMA CGM also co-operates with Maersk on services between Asia and the Mediterranean. The French lines Bosphorus Express serving the Black Sea and the Phoenician Express covering the Adriatic, involving partnerships with Maersk, and two others, marketed as AE11 by Maersk and MEX1 by CMA CGM, and the AE20/ MEX3 rotation will also be disbanded. Following the announcement, two questions were being asked: what will CMA CGM do and will China approve the new tie-up? Crucially the 2M carriers wont seek regulatory approval from MofCom as it does not fall under the scope of Chinas Anti-Monopoly Law. 2M is a purely operational VSA . Therefore, most of the regulatory considerations relate to filings with maritime authorities in various jurisdictions, Maersk Line said. In China, the VSA will be filed with the Ministry of Transport. The move could be seen as partly pre-emptive, as clearing the hurdle of Chinas primary anti-monopoly authority could have in effect prevented other parties from launching lawsuits against P3 under the same regulation. With regards to CMA CGM, the French line had not commented at the time of going to press. But it is expected to team up with other global carriers, probably ones with which it already has a working relationship. Pundits have suggested that it would make sense for CMA CGM to form a partnership with United Arab Shipping Co and China Shipping, as they both have ultra-large vessels on order so would be able to offer the same economies of scale. MSC will provide around 75 ships with a nominal 0.9m teu capacity for the 2M alliance. Photo: Dietmar Hasenpusch
www.containershipping.com CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL 43 July/August 2014 BOX WORLD BRIEFING 44 CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL www.containershipping.com July/August 2014 CARRIERS Robert Yildirim: aware of the challenges P3 would face in China. ZIM has finally completed its restructuring following 18 months of intensive negotiations with creditors, shareholders and the Israeli government. The Haifa-headquartered shipping line announced in July that it had completed its restructuring when Israel Corp invested $200m of equity into the company. The deal will also see Israel Corp, which had a 99.7% stake in the shipping line, swallow $238m in debt and cut its shareholding in Zim to 32%. Furthermore, the company will also be required to provide a liquidity line of $50m. Meanwhile, lending banks, shipowners and bondholders have agreed to convert approximately $1.4bn of Zims total $3.4bn debt and liabilities into a 68% ownership stake in the shipping line. The remaining $2bn consists of debt secured by vessels and unsecured notes listed on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange with a maturity of nine years. Zim said it had also restructured its charter payments to shipowners, which will see them reduced by 46% overall. Zim chief executive Rafi Danieli, who is understood to want to step down following completion of the restructuring, said: The Israel Corps willingness to forego its shares and transfer them to the creditors has been a significant contribution to the restructuring, and the $200m investment enabled the successful conclusion of the process. Damian Brett CMA CGM shareholder Robert Yildirim was not surprised by Chinas rejection of the P3 Network. Mr Yildirim, president and chief executive of Yildirim Holdings, said that having worked in China for more than 20 years, he was aware of the challenges that the three carriers would face in convincing Beijing to approve the P3 Network. He said he expected Beijing to force the carriers to accept certain conditions that were in the interests of China and likened the situation to Glencores merger with Xstrata, where the deal was approved on the condition a project in Peru was sold to a Chinese company and the merged entity supplied the country with a certain volume of copper concentrate. He added that the P3, even though it had not been approved, had a positive impact on container shipping, by forcing the G6 and CKYHE alliances to expand and improve their offering. Since Containerisation International spoke to him, the 2M Alliance has also been launched. Mr Yildirim also spoke about his investment in CMA CGM, which amounts to a 24% stake following a 2011 purchase of $500m in convertible bonds and an additional $100m injection in 2012. The investment period in the company is five years, running to January 2016. At the moment Mr Yildirim and the Saad family are still considering their options, which include the Saad family buying Mr Yildirims stake, selling it as part of an IPO or selling it to a third party. It seems the Saad family favours buying back his Yildirim not surprised by P3 rejection stake, he said. Overall, he said he was happy with his investment in the shipping line. The investment is doing very well, he said. The company has produced some fantastic results and I am going to stay until the end of my investment period and then well see what will happen. The margins are some of the highest in the industry. The restructuring of the company went well and thats why we are positive and I am happy that I have been part of the company during the restructuring and the growth. Both sides will be the winners in the end. The company was struggling and now it is back where it was before and it has gained a lot of value back and I am making money on my investment that was the whole idea behind the investment. Damian Brett CARRIERS Zim completes restructuring FRESH & COOL. SHIP TO SHOP. What makes an apple happy? Consistent cool storage. What makes you happy? Low ownership cost, one-step installation, and CARB compliancy to the toughest standards. All available now in the SG-4000 Genset platform. europe.thermoking.com BOX WORLD BRIEFING 46 CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL www.containershipping.com July/August 2014 ORIENT Overseas Container Line has opened appeal proceedings against a French court ruling that found the Hong Kong line guilty of corporate manslaughter following the death of Courtenay Allan in 2003. The company issued a statement saying it had filed an appeal in order to keep the process open, pending the release of the court judgment. Although the Le Havre court fined OOCL 50,000 ($64,000), it did not release details of the decision at the same time. OOCL had 10 days in which to appeal. Mr Allans three sons, who have fought a long battle for a legal verdict after their father was killed in a lift accident on board OOCL Montreal, had urged OOCL not to appeal in order to draw a line under their 11 year campaign for answers. In its first comment since the guilty decision, OOCL said: We find it difficult to reconcile the verdict with the results of investigations made by various independent experts. The company goes on to say that for the past 11 years, we have sought the truth behind the cause of Mr Allans death. To date, none of the independent experts, including the French court surveyor, were able to identify the person that had interfered and tampered with the lift system, OOCL said. The company had invited the French magistrate to expand the courts enquiries to include the shipbuilders as well as the lift manufacturers, but unfortunately to no avail, OOCL continued. Mr Allan, OOCLs transatlantic trades director, died after falling down the lift shaft from the bridge of the vessel while attending a customer reception in Le Havre. The elevator car failed to arrive after being called, leaving a void in the elevator shaft. His sons issued a statement soon after OOCLs appeal decision saying they were shocked by OOCLs U-turn, given that only last week the company said it sought closure in the case. Janet Porter OOCL opens appeal process over Courtenay Allan manslaughter ruling REGULATION THE European Commission has extended the regulation governing liner shipping consortia for another five years after a lengthy review into whether an industry- specific exemption from antitrust rules was still needed. Brussels has now confirmed that the maritime consortia block exemption Brussels to extend liner consortia rules will remain in place until April 2020. The existing regulation was due to expire next year, and questions had been raised as to whether container lines still needed their own set of rules rather than be treated the same way as most other industries. After a public consultation, the commission said it had concluded that the exemption has worked well, providing legal certainty to agreements which bring benefits to customers and do not unduly distort competition, and that current market circumstances warrant a prolongation. The regulation allows shipping lines with a combined market share of below 30% to enter into co-operation agreements to provide joint cargo transport services. Such agreements usually allow liner shipping carriers to rationalise their activities and achieve economies of scale that benefit customers. Calls for the threshold to be raised to at least 35% were rejected, however. Janet Porter REGULATION Courtenay Allan (inset) died in an incident on board OOCL Montreal. RISING RISK OF CYBERCRIME Mike Yarwood, TT Club claims executive, investigates the extent of cybercrime targeted at transport operators AS INVASIVE cyber-technology becomes more widely available, a greater risk to legitimate trade is emerging and exposing operators in the supply chain to economic and commercial damage. Criminal organisations are increasingly hacking into operators IT systems from anywhere in the world. The threat to security potentially affects every type of business in the container trade from ocean carriers, port terminals and handling facilities to inland depots, railheads and truck operators. The very nature of a freight container makes it prone to attention by criminals. At TT Club, we have previously highlighted the increasing trend in the fraudulent use of internet clearing sites. Recent reports, however, have identified another approach regarding IT-based theft. Going beyond simply misleading other operators into thinking they are dealing with a legitimate company through the use of internet- based clearance websites, it has been established that cybercriminals may access and take control of operators IT systems, extracting or manipulating valuable data. We have seen a number of incidents which at first appear to be petty break- ins at office facilities. The damage appears minimal nothing is physically removed. More thorough post-incident investigations reveal that the thieves were actually installing spyware within the IT network of the operator. More typically, criminals identify targets (generally individuals) where the system cybersecurity is inadequate, making operational executives who travel extensively particularly exposed. The type of information being sought and extracted may be release codes for containers from port and terminal facilities. However, spyware can record movements, keystrokes, and even download and print documents and screenshots to an external source. In the instances discovered to date, the cybercriminals have apparently been focused on specific individual containers, taking steps to track the units through the supply chain to the destination discharge port. Once the container has arrived, the perpetrators intervene, collecting the required release data from the unsuspecting operators IT systems, ultimately facilitating the release of the container into their custody and control. The known incidents are thought to have been related to drug trafficking, creating a means of importing illegal substances through the supply chain unnoticed. A particular area of risk is the road delivery element of a container move. Over a period of time a criminal organisation can effectively build a profile of regular routes and parking locations. Similarly, by accessing a terminal operators container control system, a criminal organisation can achieve its ends by altering the location of a particular container within a facility or even make it appear that it is not at the terminal at all. The ensuing losses can give rise to very large financial exposures, let alone the commercial and reputational damage. The increased sophistication of such cyber- attacks make it challenging for operators to build effective defences. Boards and managements need to articulate a clear risk culture and deliberately follow through the process. In many cases, the human element is both the strongest and weakest link in the armoury. Education is key to success, making individuals across all disciplines of the organisation aware of the threat and of the risk-management policies implemented to defend your organisation. In many ways the source of the threat emanates from an organisations culture. The potential for individual or contractor malfeasance may be thoroughly mitigated by others alertness, thorough training and effective procedures (such as segregation of duties and whistleblowing). Vigilance and due diligence in day-to-day operations the more physical side are clearly vital, together with general security of IT installations. However, it would also be wise for operators to investigate the means of a greater degree of protection from and detection of hacking and spyware activity. A well-informed and transparent relationship between risk-management teams and IT departments within an organisation is of paramount importance. We would recommend that all operators consider the following: 1. Be clear and define who is responsible for cybersecurity within your organisation. 2. Understand the cyber-risk to your business, conduct risk assessments as to what data you hold and what may be of the greatest potential value. 3. Make an active decision on risk. Set your risk appetite and communicate it to all departments within your organisation. 4. Plan for resilience. How will you know if your business is being attacked or targeted and once identified how will your business react to overcome the threat? Spyware installed inside company IT networks helps cybercriminals unlock a multitude of information. Photo: TACstock1/Shutterstock.com GUEST COLUMNIST www.containershipping.com CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL 47 July/August 2014 48 CONTAINERISATION INTERNATIONAL www.containershipping.com July/August 2014 GUEST COLUMNIST CONTAINER WEIGHT VERIFICATION PRAGMATISM WINS THE DAY New measures planned for 2016 are good news for all, says Chris Welsh, secretary general of the Global Shippers Forum REGULATORS commonly bear the brunt of much stick and opprobrium from industry for not listening or understanding the implications of their policies and therefore getting it wrong. That cannot be said of the International Maritime Organization Maritime Safety Committee, which in May commendably approved a container weight verification compromise proposal earlier adopted by the IMO sub- committee dealing with containers and dangerous goods. That is good news for carriers and the wider maritime supply chain, but also for shippers upon whose shoulders the changes fall for implementing new provisions to verify the gross mass weight of the container before shipment. Its a win-win all round: the measures will substantially enhance maritime safety while at the same time introducing some much-needed improvements in supply chain processes and standards. While some thought the proposals were unnecessary, there has been a gradual realisation that it is in everyones best interests to tackle the problem of misdeclaration, not least by quality shippers currently working within rigorous health and safety and quality management systems. The real success of the IMO proposals has been the recognition of the complexity of implementation, particularly in application and enforcement. On the face of it, what could be simpler? All the shipper needs to do is weigh the goods, packaging, dunnage and add the tare weight of the container and verify the total gross mass weight with the shipping line. Thankfully, regulators soon cottoned on to the fact that few shippers have on-site weighing capability, and that the supply chain internationally is not currently geared up to cope with the sheer volume of containers to be processed through container terminals. Many of these issues still need to be bottomed out, but the flexibility offered by the verification methods adopted by the IMO provides the opportunity to overcome these implementation difficulties. In that regard, it is pleasing to see wider recognition of the flexibility provided by the calculated weight method, the so-called method two verification option championed by GSF, which won support from the main global maritime industry stakeholder groups and government experts in the IMO. The method two verification option is likely to be the most practical choice for high-volume and regular shippers. Early discussions with regulators and the other main players in the maritime supply chain including carriers, freight forwarders and terminal operators suggest that a relatively simple certification regime could be implemented at limited cost. The main cost would be the set-up and maintenance of an accreditation scheme and database by enforcement agencies for certification of shippers using the method. The benefit of such an approach is that enforcement agencies will be able to use existing traceable and audit based systems such as System Application Programmes currently relied upon by businesses and in some cases government agencies for accurate information covering a wide spectrum of business and compliance activities, such as providing accurate data to support business systems such as consignment orders, invoicing and compliance with other regulatory requirements. Such systems can be used for building mixed consignments but also for homogeneous products including beer, spirits and mobile phones. The beauty of such a system is that, once accredited, the shippers verification methods will be subject to an enforceable certification regime which carriers can rely on. All parties in the supply chain will have the opportunity to check a government database to verify that the shipper presenting the cargo for shipment has the appropriate arrangements in place for providing an accurate verifiable weight which is traceable and subject to an audit-based scheme enforced by the relevant enforcement agency. This opens up huge opportunities for improving and enhancing communication systems within the maritime supply chain. In other words, there could be real commercial benefits for standardisation and digitisation of commercial and shipping documents, leading to reduced costs, eradication of errors, improved accuracy and the speeding up of documentary processes and procedures. In the meantime, shippers need to start seriously thinking about implementation as the new weight verification measures are due to enter into force from July 2016.