New York CD-24 Key Findings Page 1

MEMORANDUM

TO: JOHN KATKO FOR CONGRESS

FROM: PATRICK LANNEPUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES

SUBJECT: NEW YORK CD-24 RECENT POLL RESULTS

DATE: SEPTEMBER 25, 2014

Public Opinion Strategies recently conducted a district-wide survey of 400 likely voters, reached
via landline and cell phone on behalf of the Katko for Congress campaign. The poll was
conducted September 22-23, 2014 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases.
The purpose of this memo is to review some of the key findings of that poll.

Key Findings

John has momentum.
John has cut Maffeis lead in half and now trails on the ballot test by just three points,
43%-46% -- within the polls margin of error. Johns message is moving voters; among
those who recall his TV advertising (58% of the sample) John beats Maffei, 49%-45%.

Voters want a change from Maffei.
Our July poll found that Dan Maffei is a wounded incumbent. His political position has
slipped even further since. Dan Maffeis personal image is highly polarized, 43%
favorable 41% unfavorable a net eleven point negative swing since July (47%-34%).
Additionally, 54% of voters would prefer a new person rather than re-elect Maffei.

Undecided voters look favorable to John.
Importantly, as Johns name ID grows, undecided voters are primed to break in his
direction. Undecided voters have a negative personal impression of Maffei (26%-43%),
would strongly prefer a new person (15% re-elect 55% new person) and a near
majority (47%) say that what they have seen, read or heard about Maffei has given
them a less favorable impression. By a strong margin (50%-26%), undecided voters
would prefer a Republican candidate who will be a check on Obama and the Democrats
over a Democratic candidate who will help pass the Democratic agenda.


New York CD-24 Key Findings Page 2

The Bottom Line
John has seized the momentum in this race even as Dan Maffei and his allies have launched a
significant negative campaign against him. Undecided voters look to break Johns way. Given
Maffeis personal negatives, we can anticipate Maffei and his friends doubling down on their
false attacks.

Johns progress serves as a reminder that this seat has a strong history of sending Republicans
to Congress. The Cook PVI rates the 24th District as a D-5 seat, but voters here have chosen a
Republican in 15 of the 17 previous congressional elections. With the resources to expand his
name ID and push back against the Democrats scare tactics, John stands an excellent chance to
be the 16th Republican winner.