Every year since 2005, the World Economic Forum in Geneva has published a Global Risks Report, analyzing the major challenges facing the world. This year, failure to mitigate climate change was listed 5th out of 31 risks, followed at 6th by a greater incidence of extreme weather events. Thousands of miles away, residents of the small islands of Kiribati did not need to read the WEF report to learn that climate change is a serious threat to the world. Living on atolls where most land is less than 3-4m above sea level, they know firsthand how vulnerable they are and what is at stake if we fail to mitigate global climate change.
Original Title
Global Risks: Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Failure in Kiribati
Every year since 2005, the World Economic Forum in Geneva has published a Global Risks Report, analyzing the major challenges facing the world. This year, failure to mitigate climate change was listed 5th out of 31 risks, followed at 6th by a greater incidence of extreme weather events. Thousands of miles away, residents of the small islands of Kiribati did not need to read the WEF report to learn that climate change is a serious threat to the world. Living on atolls where most land is less than 3-4m above sea level, they know firsthand how vulnerable they are and what is at stake if we fail to mitigate global climate change.
Every year since 2005, the World Economic Forum in Geneva has published a Global Risks Report, analyzing the major challenges facing the world. This year, failure to mitigate climate change was listed 5th out of 31 risks, followed at 6th by a greater incidence of extreme weather events. Thousands of miles away, residents of the small islands of Kiribati did not need to read the WEF report to learn that climate change is a serious threat to the world. Living on atolls where most land is less than 3-4m above sea level, they know firsthand how vulnerable they are and what is at stake if we fail to mitigate global climate change.
in Kiribati Security Scholar: Ms. Briar Thompson Published: September 8, 2014
Every year since 2005, the World Economic Forum in Geneva has published a Global Risks Report, analyzing the major challenges facing the world. This year, failure to mitigate climate change was listed 5th out of 31 risks, followed at 6th by a greater incidence of extreme weather events. 1 Thousands of miles away, residents of the small islands of Kiribati did not need to read the WEF report to learn that climate change is a serious threat to the world. Living on atolls where most land is less than 3- 4m above sea level, 2 they know firsthand how vulnerable they are and what is at stake if we fail to mitigate global climate change.
Small island developing states like Kiribati cannot mitigate or adapt to climate change alone, nor can they address the risks presented by a possible failure of international efforts. Climate change, and global failure to adequately respond to it, presents a clear security issue in the Pacific. Not just human security, but also a test of our regional capacity and resilience and of global governance.
Cl i mate Change as a Securi ty Issue
Climate change is a threat to small island developing states like Kiribati. An incremental rise in sea levels, 3 rises in ocean surface temperature and acidification, 4 and a number of extreme weather events have combined with natural El Nio/La Nia variability and local development to erode coastal areas, 5 damage homes and infrastructure, change the soil composition, damage the coral reef and increase pressure on fresh water lenses. Storms, increasing in frequency and intensity, have compounded the slower moving impacts and local factors, destroying crops, disrupting sewerage systems, and causing intensive flooding. 6 The last two combined present a serious health risk to I-Kiribati, the people of Kiribati. 7 Climate change, by threatening water supply, food security, shelter, and subsequently health and livelihoods, is a threat to human security.
Without human security, there is no state security for Kiribati. Its often said that where there is water there is life, but the opposite is also tragically true. In 2011, droughts saw Tuvalu and Tokelau run out of fresh water, 8 and national emergencies were declared. Desalination units were flown in to Tuvalu as part of a military aid response from neighboring countries. 9 A robust humanitarian and military response is increasingly needed following extreme weather events reportedly linked to climatic changes. Even the Pentagon has acknowledged that climate change is one of the major challenges already shaping US military operations, 10 despite the preference of the House of Representatives to dismiss it altogether from military planning. 11
Briar Thompson is a member of the inaugural class of Pacific Security Scholars. A Rhodes Scholar from New Zealand, she is pursuing graduate education at Somerville College, University of Oxford.
Security Scholars Policy Analysis from Next Generation Leaders Pacific Islands Society | Pacific Security Scholars | September 8, 2014 The sea level 12 may be rising slowly for Kiribati in recent years the sea level has been almost stable 13 but even small future increases will be enough to make large swathes of land uninhabitable. Rises in sea level serve to compound other factors 14 that are contributing to coastal erosion and flooding in Kiribati. Sand and reef rock mining, causeway construction, and poor construction of sea walls, 15 pollution of the lagoon through waste dumping and poor sanitation 16 which impacts on reef health, and overfishing of the reef fish that help built up coral sands are all possible contributors to a changing coastline vulnerable to inundation. 17
These activities are exacerbated by the internal migration occurring in response to changes in both the environment and the labor market. As of 2011, the population density in Betio, one of Kiribatis islands, was higher Hong Kongs; 18
this will only increase as development activities erode the coastline and the sea continues to encroach on all sides. This raises another security implication: the threat that climate change may pose to sovereignty in low-lying atoll countries like Kiribati. Eventually people will have nowhere to go within the country: if, in the long term, all the people flee for other shores, what becomes of Kiribatis sovereignty? Will Kiribati still be Kiribati, though in exile? 19
Most nations go to war and fight back when their sovereignty is threatened. Kiribati is building its defenses, with coastal protection walls and improved water supplies, and being proactive in joining the UN primarily to lobby on climate change, but they will not win the battle without many allies.
After the release of doomsday films like The Day After Tomorrow, debate arose amongst reviewers in the West about whether the portrayal or even experience of catastrophic natural disasters in the West would spur action on climate change. 20 If decision makers in high emission countries experienced the threat on their own turf, the general reasoning went, they would finally act. But almost two years after Hurricane Sandy hit major population centers in the eastern United States, 21 we still have not had the paradigm shift required to back the ambitious targets necessary to begin curbing the effects of climate change.
Ki ri bati s Adaptati on Efforts
Kiribatis government and people have implemented many adaptation programs focused on building coastal protection, improving water collection and storage, and ensuring food security. 22 Kiribati purchased 20 square kilometers from the Church of England in Vanua Levu, Fiji, 23 which is being used for agriculture and fish farming, 24 compensating for the decline in crops due to increasing soil salinity and a lack of fresh water for irrigation. More could be done to minimize coastal vulnerability in Kiribati, particularly through reducing sand and coral reef mining, conducting thorough environmental impact assessments before the construction of causeways, carefully managing waste disposal, and sustainably managing fisheries. Education campaigns alone will not be sufficient. They will need to be supported by technical assistance as well as a provision of alternatives alternatives to sand and reef rock for construction, and alternatives to reef fish for food sources, for example from outside Kiribati.
Recognizing the need to plan for the future, Kiribati is also implementing a multi-pronged migration with dignity strategy. 25 First, opportunities are provided, where possible, for those who want to emigrate to do so, encouraging them to set up expatriate communities in other countries, ready to absorb or support future flows of I-Kiribati migrants based on family ties, and send critical remittances in the meantime. Remittances aid adaptation efforts and the departure of some citizens eases the pressure on the countrys scarce natural resources. Second, Kiribati is raising the standard of qualifications offered in the country to meet that of Australia and New Zealand, so they will be recognized internationally, 26 and encouraging more people to go through training, for example to become nurses. The intended benefits are twofold graduates will improve local services, and will also have increased prospects for labor or Pacific Islands Society | Pacific Security Scholars | September 8, 2014 merits-based migration. Kiribatis President Anote Tong has indicated that he wants his people to be an asset to other countries, not a burden. 27
The use of family, education and labor migration pathways over time are not only more realistic for the I-Kiribati than a one-off humanitarian relocation, but also more suitable, given the gradual pace of climate change and of migration, and given the history of Pacific Island migration to neighboring countries for work, study and family reunification. 28
However, it is important to note that relocation is a last resort survival strategy for the I-Kiribati and many other Pacific Island peoples. The majority of citizens do not want to leave their homeland. 29 Relocation could threaten the nations culture, language and traditions. Over the long term, relocation will still leave behind those who are unwilling or unable to relocate, increasingly vulnerable with fewer resources left to adapt. 30 These substantial protection gaps are often forgotten when emphasizing the needs of those who are fleeing.
Focusing on relocation also risks diverting international attention away from the investment needed for adaptation measures within the country to deal with the challenges it is already facing.
Despite the many headlines that Kiribati or Tuvalu will be the first island to disappear below the waves, they will not be the first to relocate their people because of climate change. In 2009 Papua New Guinea began relocating their people in the Carterets Islands to Bougainville, partially due to sea level rise and its impacts. 31 Kiribati would not be the first large group of people to relocate to other Pacific countries either. Some communities have already moved from Banaba Island (now part of Kiribati) to Rabi, Fiji; from Vaitupu (now part of Tuvalu) to northern Fiji; and from other parts of modern Kiribati to the Solomon Islands. 32 To say that Kiribati might be the first gives the impression that, thus far, we have managed to hold off the worst of climate change. This is as misleading as the idea that islands are sinking, distracting from the fact that climate change, as an impact multiplier and accelerator, 33 will make the islands unable to sustain life long before the ocean covers their surfaces.
Kiribati will not be the last to become uninhabitable either. The plight of Kiribati portends similar challenges for many other small island states, as well as parts of countries like Bangladesh and Alaska, where the effects of climate change are already wreaking havoc on peoples lives. 34
Room for a Regi onal Approach
For Kiribati, perhaps hope can be found in regional assistance. Regional cooperation will be crucial for providing locally specific adaptation solutions, drawing on the knowledge and skills built up in other Pacific countries experiencing similar changes. Locally focused approaches are in line with the Niue Declaration on Climate Change and the Pacific Islands Framework for Action on Climate Change. A strong history of regional cooperation already exists for humanitarian and military responses, as well as technical assistance. And a regional approach will best support Kiribatis migration with dignity policy, if Pacific countries (continue to) offer labor migration schemes, pathways to residency such as New Zealands Pacific Access Category, discretion to grant humanitarian residency in the absence of a legal precedent for asylum based on climate change, 35 scholarships for study abroad, and financial and technical support for education within Kiribati.
The challenge will be in ramping up all forms of support and assistance, because the type of intensive, sustained adaptation required to address the changes already being felt in Kiribati calls for substantial funding and technical expertise. Regional cooperation should also extend to a united backing and echoing of Kiribatis calls for more ambitious and urgent mitigation and adaptation efforts at climate change summits, though this is unlikely to develop in time for the 2015 summit, given Pacific Islands Society | Pacific Security Scholars | September 8, 2014 the current divergent focus of most national leaders.
Lack of Internati onal Cooperati on
Kiribati is not just a canary in a coalmine, serving to show the human cost of the increasingly defeatist acceptance of adaptation without mitigation. Kiribati is a mirror reflecting back at the international community's lack of substantial collaboration. The 2014 World Economic Forum Global Risks Report said, Global risks can only be addressed at a global level. Addressing risks effectively takes not only a common understanding of the issues and a willingness to work together but also the building of mutual trust and nurturing of the capacity for long-term thinking. 36 While there is certainly more that Kiribati can do, and they will continue to adapt and build regional cooperation, what is really needed in order to protect their security and sovereignty is international leadership and cooperation. If we cannot work together to address climate change, what hope is there for other forms of cooperation on other global risks? Might the forecast for Kiribati, desperately fighting off the reality that without others it will cease to sustain itself, reflect the state of our capacity for international cooperation?
As many countries have retreated to focusing on their domestic issues, prioritizing their national interest, calls to focus on adaptation alone have become increasingly common and accepted. However, Kiribati's people may view these calls as though they are steeped in ignorance, coming across as harsh warnings to get used to it. If the Paris 2015 climate conference becomes yet another chance to protect and safeguard short term GDP and national priorities by blocking mitigative remedies that might threaten them, it will not only be Kiribati that suffers. The hope placed in international cooperation will be shown as futile, the capacity of our leaders to reach agreements limited, and the international community we uphold as the answer to the global risks we face broken. This realization will have far wider reaching security implications than only determining the future of Kiribati. As President Tong stressed in a 2009 speech, Climate change is the greatest moral challenge of the 21st century. It calls into question the ability of our international institutions, and our compassion as human beings, to face this issue. 37
Although Tong ended his statement proclaiming We cannot handle this alone, Kiribati and other Pacific islands may find themselves trying to do just that, because even if international cooperation fails, the islands still have to respond to the threat. Such a response is unlikely to be effective. Kiribati has little role to play in climate change mitigation, and tackling adaptation in the absence of international cooperation will be extremely difficult and limited. The long-term implications for Kiribati of a failure of global governance and international cooperation are dire.
Foot not es
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