Bisciete Event Simulation Nanual:

Nanufactuiing Applications
by
Biian T. Bughes

ASeniorProjectsubmitted
inpartialfulfillment
oftherequirementsforthedegreeof
BachelorofScienceinIndustrialEngineering

CaliforniaPolytechnicStateUniversity
SanLuisObispo

Gradedby__________________DateofSubmission______________
Checkedby_________________Approvedby___________________
ii

SpecialThanksto:
Dr.RoyaJavadpour
Dr.RezaPouraghabagher
Dr.KurtColvin
Dr.UnnyMenon
KarenBangs
Dr.SemaAlptekin
JasonMaynard
Alltestsubjects

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Table of Contents
Abstiact ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 2
Intiouuction ............................................................................................................................................................................... S
Backgiounu ................................................................................................................................................................................ 4
Liteiatuie Review .................................................................................................................................................................... S
SimulationBasics......................................................................................................................................5
TeachingSimulation..................................................................................................................................7
Teachingmethods.....................................................................................................................................7
Besign ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
DefineObjectives......................................................................................................................................9
ProjectScope..........................................................................................................................................10
ManualContentsandModelDesign......................................................................................................10
Nethous ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 1S
DevelopingtheManual...........................................................................................................................13
TestingtheManual.................................................................................................................................14
ImplementationPlan..............................................................................................................................16
Results ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 17
Conclusions .............................................................................................................................................................................. 2u
Bibliogiaphy ............................................................................................................................................................................ 22
Appenuix A: Compiehension Test .................................................................................................................................. 24
Appenuix B: Bata Analysis ................................................................................................................................................. 2S
Appenuix C: Bisciete Event Simulation Nanual ....................................................................................................... 26

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List of Tables

Table 1: Raw Bata fiom Test Expeiiment ................................................................................................................... 17

Table 2: Cost of Piinting the Nanual in Both Coloi anu Black & White .......................................................... 19
Table S: Payback Peiiou Analysis ................................................................................................................................... 2u

Abstract
Simulation,specificallydiscreteeventsimulation,isausefultoolforindustrialand
manufacturingengineerswhendealingwithsystemanalysis.Currently,manufacturingengineersare
onlyexposedtosimulationforonlyafewweeksoftheircurriculumatCalPoly.Aseriesoflabsare
directedbyateachersassistantonhowtocompleteasuccessfulsimulationexperiment.However,
thereisnotextavailableforstudentuseduringthisdemandinglearningperiod.Thesimulationlearning
processinvolveslearningasoftwareprogramcalledProModel,whichstudentswithlittleexperienceare
expectedtocode,run,andinterpretdatafromcomplexsystems.Bycreatingamanualthatpromotes
studentlearning,providesatutorialtotheProModelsoftware,andthesimulationprocessasawhole,
studentswillbemoreapttoabsorbkeyconceptsandabletocontributetoasimulationteamin
industry.

Introduction
Simulation,specificallydiscreteeventsimulation,isausefultoolforindustrialand
manufacturingengineerswhendealingwithsystemsanalysis.Currently,manufacturingengineersare
onlyexposedtosimulationforafewweeksoftheircurriculum.Inthesefewweeks,laboratoryactivities
arerunbyateachersassistantthroughaseriesofexamples.Littleotherresourcesareprovidedin
termsofatextforstudentstocontinuetolearnandresourcesinthelibraryarefartooadvancedfor
undergraduatestudentswithlittleexperience.Afterconsultingwithprofessorsaswellasteachers
assistantsforthisclass(IME342),itwasdeterminedthatthereisroomforimprovementintheselabs.
Creatingamanualwhichstudentcanrefertowillnotonlyhelptheirlearningintheclassroom,but
outsideofitaswell.
Thepurposeofthisprojectistocreateasolutionthat:
Bettereducatesstudentsonthestepstocorrectlycompletingausefulsimulation.
Providesaresourcetomanufacturingengineers,whereonedoesnotcurrentlyexist.
ProvidesatutorialonhowtobuildabasicmodelusingProModelsoftware.
Aidsstudentlearningoutsidetheclassroom.
Currently,studentsstudyingthissubjecthavetwomainsourcesofinformation:theirprofessor
andtheproblemsassignedtotheirclass.However,whenworkingonsimulationawayfromthe
classroom,onesoptionsforfindingthehelpneededareevenmorelimited.Thismanualisdesignedto
beabridgebetweenthesetwosources.Beingastudent,Iknowhowitfeelstohavetolearnanew
concept/softwareprogram,aswellassomeofthechallengesthatgoalongwithit.Byusingthismanual
studentshaveanotheroptiontoturnto,onethatisdirectlytailoredtotheirneeds.
Thissolutionisdesignedtowalkstudentsthroughthesimulationprocess,untilanendresultis
reached.Itisdividedintothreemainsections:thesimulationprocess,ProModeltutorial/
implementation,andoutputanalysis.Thefirstsection,thesimulationprocess,covershowtogoabout
turningarealworldsystemintoasystemthatcanbemodeled.Itincludeskeyinformationsuchas

simulationjargonandkeymetricsthatastudentmustkeepinmindwhileperformingsimulation
experiments.Fromthere,theProModeltutorialsectionteachesstudentshowtousethissoftwareto
createamodelthatfunctionsasanexistingsystem.Finally,thedataanalysissectioncovershowtoturn
yoursimulationsoutputintoinformationusefulindecisionmaking.Eachsectionisinterconnectedby
theuseofafewexamplemodels.Thesemodelsstartasbasicsystems,andasthestudentgetsfartherin
theProModelsection,getbuiltupintomorecomplexsystems.
Thehopeisthatstudentswillusethismanualwhentheyhaveaquestionaboutaspecificaspect
ofthesimulationprocessandtofurthertheirknowledgeofProModelinordertobuildavarietyof
models.
Thisreportisorganizedasatechnicalreport.Itwillpresentthemethodsthatwereusedto
completetheproject,theresultsthatarehopedtoachieved,andtheconclusionsthataredrawnfrom
thisproject.ThemaindeliverableofthisprojectisasimulationmanualwhichcanbefoundinAppendix
C.
Background
IME342isaclassthatteachesmanufacturingengineers,amongotherthings,thescienceof
simulationmodeling.Thisclassdoessothroughaseriesoflecturesandaonceaweeklab.Afewof
theselabsteachstudentstouseProModelthroughbasicexampleapplications.Afterconsulting
instructorsaswellasteachersassistantsforthisclass,theyseeaneedforresourcethatthestudents
canturnto.Accordingtoaninstructor,thecurrentlabprocedureisrunwellbuthasroomfor
improvement.Thismakesitdifficultforstudentstolearnthesoftwarebythemselvesandrequiresthe
instructortogofromstudenttostudentfixingbugs.Thisisnotanefficientwayfortheinstructor,the
teachersadvisor,orthestudenttospendtheirtimeandnotagoodwaytolearn.Alearningtoolthat

canbothteachandhelpstudentstroubleshoottheirmodelwillnotonlyfreeuptheinstructorformore
constructiveactivitiesduringlab,butitallowsstudentstoteachthemselvesbothinsideandoutsideof
theirlabtime.

Literature Review
SimulationBasics
Intodaysworld,thewordsimulationhasmanymeanings.Theallencompassingdefinitionof
simulationistherepresentationofsomethingreal(Webster,1993).Thiscanapplytoanythingfroma
mechanicalbulltoaflightsimulator,bothofwhichimitatetheirrespectiverealworldsystem.
Dependingonthefieldofinterest,simulationhasmanysubdefinitionsaswell.Inindustrialand
manufacturingapplications,simulationisdefinedastheactionofperformingexperimentsonamodel
ofagivensystem(SchimdtandTaylor,2000)orthegenerationofpseudodataonthebasisofamodel
oradatabase(Thompson,2000).Asystem,inthiscase,isacollectionofentitieswhichactand
interacttogethertowardtheaccomplishmentofsomelogicalend(SchimdtandTaylor,1970),whereas
amodelisarepresentationofthatsystem.Amodelisalsoanabstractofthesystem.Themoredetail
thatthemodelincludes,thebetteritresemblesreality.However,detailisgenerallyanimpedanceto
problemsolutionandincreasescostsofmakingandanalyzingthemodel(Fishman,2001).
Evenwhenapplyingsimulationtoindustrialapplicationstherearemanydifferenttypes.A
systemmodelcanbeeitherdeterministicorstochastic.Adeterministicmodelisonewithnorandom
(stochastic)elementsandproducesthesameansweroneachrun,whereasstochasticoutputsdiffer
fromruntorun(Thompson,2000).Asystemcanbeeitherstaticordynamicmeaningthattimeis,oris
notavariable.Finally,amodelcanbediscreteorcontinuous.Ifamodelisdiscrete,statevariables
changeatdiscretetimeinstances(LeemisandPark,2006).Allofthesemodelshavetheirapplications,

butwhenmodelingamanufacturingenvironment,discreteeventsimulationisnormallyused.Discrete
eventsimulationisdefinedbythefollowingthreeattributes:astochastic,dynamic,anddiscreteevent
model.ThesimulationmethodknownasaMonteCarloSimulationissimilartodiscreteevent
simulation,butisstatic,meaningthattimedoesnotfactorintosimulating(LeemisandPark,2006).
Discreteeventsimulation(DES)hasgainedwidespreadacceptanceasapowerfulandversatile
toolfortheanalysisofcomplexsystems(RubinsteinandMelamed,1998)andasaresult,gaining
popularityoverthepast50years(Fishman,2001).DESenablestheusertostudydiscrete,dynamic
systemsinwhichdelayisanintrinsicfeature.PossibleapplicationsofDESinclude:manufacturing,
communicationnetworks,transportation,healthcare,andmilitaryapplications(Fishman,2001).
Beingabletoperformasimulationonasystemprovidestheuserwithmanybenefitsthat
include,butarenotlimitedto:theabilitytoorganizetheoreticalbeliefsandobservationsabouta
system,improvedsystemunderstanding,expeditesthespeedwithwhichananalysiscanbe
accomplished,providesaframeworkfortestingthedesirabilityofsystemmodifications,makesiteasier
tomanipulatethesystem,andisgenerallylesscostlythandirectsystemstudyaccordingto(Fishman,
2001).SchmidtandTaylor(1970)arguethattherearedisadvantagestousingDESaswell.Hesaysthat
developingasimulationmodelisoftencostlytoconstructandvalidate,thatrunningthesimulation
takestimetocomplete,whichiscostly,andpeopletendtouseitwhenitisnotthebestmethod.The
modelersometimesthinksofsimulationasthesolutiontotheproblemratherthananevaluationtool.It
describeshowthesystemisexpectedtobehaveanddoesnotanswerthequestionofhowitshouldbe
designed.Insteadofbeingusedasareplacementforideas,simulationshouldbeviewedasanaddition
tothelearnedtoolsthatthemodelhasinordertounderstandthecomplexitiesofasystem(Harrell,
Ghosh,andBowden,2004).Modeleralsoneedstonotethatsimulationdoesnotprovideanoptimal
answer.Rather,itallowsthemodelertodevelopnearoptimalpoliciesforsystemmanagement(Linhart
andZucchini,1986).

TeachingSimulation
IntroductorycoursesinDESseektoturnoutstudentscapableofnotonlymakeauseful
simulation,butcapableofperformingtheentiresimulationprocess.Thisincludesplanning,data
gathering,modelingandoutputanalysis.Focusingonsoftwaretendstocreatestudentswhose
knowledgeisrestrictedtothesoftwaretowhichtheyhavebeenexposedto.Thisexposesstudentstoa
narrowsubsetofproblems.Thedesiredoutcomeistoequipeachstudentwiththeknowledgeofhowto
modelasystem,translateitintocode,andfamiliarizethemwithavarietyofconcepts(Fishman,2001).
Studentsinasimulationclassmusthaveaprerequisiteeducationofatleastthefollowing:mathematics
throughcalculus,basicstatistics,andsomeprogrammingexperience(SchmidtandTaylor,1970).
Sandridge(2000)arguesthatcasestudiesarethebestwaytoteachsimulationtoboth
undergraduateandgraduatestudents.Casestudiesprovidealinkbetweenmethodsandtheir
applications.Theycanshowhowmethodsassistinadecisionprocessinvolvingdesign,operations,and
managementissues.Sandridge(2000)identifiesthefollowingbenefitsofteachingthroughcasestudies:
relevancethestudyprovidesanactualrepresentationofrealworlddesignandoperationsissuesfaced
byengineers,motivationtherealismprovidesanincentiveforstudentstobecomeinvolved,
integrationeachcaserequiresapplicationofmultipleconcepts,andtransfercasestudiesprovide
studentsexperiencethatcanbeappliedtoothercourseworkorjobsituations.
Teachingmethods
Instructorshavebeensearchingforteachingtechniquestomaximizetheirstudentspotentialto
learn.Thegoalofateacheristogivetheirstudentsacompleteeducation.AccordingtoMcCain(2005)a
completeeducationisdefinedastheacculturationofanindividual,whichinvolvespassingonthe
accumulatedknowledgeandwisdomofoursocietytothenextgeneration.Italsoinvolvesthe
acquisitionofpracticalproblemsolvingskills,whichenablestudentstosuccessfullyapplytheirlearning
toreallifesituationsintheworkplaceandtheirpersonallives.

Jones(1994)statesthatthemoreastudentbecomesactivelyinvolvedinthelearningprocess,
themoretheycanlearn.Usingtheactivelearningcycle,studentscanlearn,recall,andapply
informationmorereadilythantraditionalmethods.Theactivelearningcycleincludes:experiencingan
activity,observingandreflectingonthoseexperiences,generalizingapplicableprinciplesfromthe
observationsandreflection,andtestingtheadequacyofourprinciplesbyactingonthemandseeingof
anticipatedexperiencesfollow.
Becauseofthesignificantchangesinthelearningatmosphereduetotechnology,teachersofall
levelsareworriedaboutthegrowinggapbetweenpracticalskillsandthoseactuallybeingtaughtin
schools(McCain,2005).Thisshifthasrequiredinstructorstochangeuphowtheyteach.TheAdditionof
laboratoryactivitiestosupplementlecturesisacommonoccurrenceintodaysclassroom.Alaboratory
providesstudentswiththeopportunityforstudentstolearnconceptsandprocessskillsthroughdirect
experience(Abbott,2004).Instructorsmustbecarefulhowtheselabsareexecuted.Manylabmanuals
requirestudentstofollowalengthyanddetailedprocedure.Thispreventsthestudentfromrecognizing
relevantversusirrelevantinformationorproceduresandrestrictstheirabilitytobuildaconceptual
framework.Insteadofhavingthegoalofknowledge,studentsperceivetheobjectiveofthelaboratory
experienceasfinishingtheprocedure.

Design
DefineObjectives
Thissimulationmanualistargetedtowardsstudentswhodonthaveanyexperienceinmodeling
realworldsystems,inparticular,systemsthatcanbemodeledusingdiscreteeventsimulation.Since
classessuchasIME420(simulation)haveatexttoreferenceandanentirequarterdevotedtolearning
thestepstoperformingsimulation,thetargetaudiencehasbeenchosentobestudentstakingIME342.
Thisclassteachesupperclassmanufacturingengineeringstudentsanalysisanddesigntoolsfor
productionplanningandcontrolofmanufacturingsystems.Forathreeweekperiod,studentstakepart
inlabactivitiesdevotedtoteachingsimulationtechniques.Thisclassdoesnotprovideatextfor
studentstoreferenceinsidethelaboroutsideclasstime.Sincestudentsareonlyexposedtothese
conceptsforashortperiodoftime,theamountofresourcesavailabletothematthistimecouldprove
tohaveadirectcorrelationtohigherlearning.
Thepurposeofthisseniorprojectittobettereducatemanufacturingengineersonthepotential
benefitsthatimplementingsimulationtechniquescanhaveonanindustrialsystem.Resources,suchas
simulationtextsavailableatthelibraryoncampus,aremuchtootechnicalandasaresult,ofverylittle
usetobeginnermodelers.Usingthismanualwillgivemanufacturingengineersatexttoreferto,not
onlyduringlabtime,butatextthattheycankeepandrefertoaftergraduating.
AnemphasiswillbeputonProModelsoftwaresimulation,sinceitisdifficultforastudentto
learnontheirown.ThetutorialwalksthestudentthroughthebasicsofmodelingwithProModeland
continuestobuildupthestudentsskillsetuntiltheyarecomfortableusingmanyofthetoolsthat
ProModelprovides.NotonlywillstudentslearntousethemodelingfeaturesofProModel,butalso
toolssuchasStat::Fit,whichaidsthemodelerinfittingdatacollectedbyobservingthesystemintoa
probabilitydistributiontousedwhilemodeling.

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ProjectScope
Thismanualisnotintendedtomakestudentsexpertsonsimulation.Itisonlyintendedto
introducematerialassociatedwithsimulationoverathreeweeklabcourse.Ifthemanualisused
correctly,studentsshouldbeableassistonsimulationprojectsinindustryastheywillbefamiliarwith
keywordsandprocessesdealingwithsimulationtechniques.Studentsshouldalsobeabletoasses
whensimulationisanappropriatetooltoimplementinordertofindsolutionstoasystemissue.Since
simulationisrarelyandonepersonproject,studentsversedinsimulationtechniquescanbeanassetto
amodelingteam.
Studentsshouldlearnthestepsthatittakestocompleteasuccessfulsimulation.Startingat
definingobjectivesforasimulation,studentswilllearnhowtocollectandanalyzedatafromtheactual
system,convertthatdataintoaformusefulforprogramming,buildaconceptualmodel,programthe
conceptualmodelusingProModel,analyzetheoutputdatathatthesimulationprovides,andfinally
makerecommendationsbasedonthedata.Throughoutthisprocessstudentsshouldtousejargon
familiartomodelersandbeabletoidentifymetricsandhowthesemetricsaffectthesystem,aswellas
othermetrics.
UsingProModel,studentswillfollowthemanualtobuildsimulationsfromexamplemodels.
Startingbybuildingamodelincludingonlythesimulationselements:locations,entities,arrivals,and
processing;themanualbuildsonthismodeluntilacomplexsimulationmodelismade.

ManualContentsandModelDesign
Simulationisbothanartandasciencewhichtakestimeandefforttobecomeproficientat.
Sincethereisalimitedtimeframeforstudentstolearnallthedifferentaspectsofsimulation,the
manualscontentsmustactasasurveyofsimulationwhilestillteachingkeyconceptssothattheyare
actuallylearnedandnotjustreadover.

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Themanualbeginswithanintroductiontosimulation.Thissectionintroducesdifferentpossible
attributesofasimulationincluding:deterministicvs.stochastic,staticvs.dynamic,anddiscretevs.
continuous.Theseattributesaredescribedthroughexamplesandtheconceptofdiscreteevent
simulationisintroduced.Thissectionalsocoverswhensimulationisappropriate,andwhenother
methodsmaybebettersuitedforfindingasolution.
Oftentimes,termsareusedintextresourceswhichastudenthasnounderstandingof.Instead
ofleavingthestudentouttodry,thenextsectionofthemanualisdevotedtodefiningtermstobeused
laterinthemanual.Boththeelementsofsimulationandimportantperformancemetricsaredefinedin
thissectioninhopesofmakingthestudentfeelcomfortableusingthemandincreasetheir
understandingofhoweachinteract.
Oneofthemainpointsthatthemanualtriestoemphasize,isthatsimulationisnotjustcreating
asimulationonthecomputer;itisaseriesactionsinwhicheverystepprocessisimportanttothefinal
output.Outliningeachstepgivesthestudentanopportunitytoseewhatthesimulationprocessentails
andwhatisinvolvedineachstep.Thissectionincludesexamplesoflogicalmodelswhichisthefirstlook
thatthestudentswillhaveofhowdiscreteeventsimulationmodelsflowfromarrivalstoexitingthe
system.Thisillustrationisimportantinthestudentsunderstandingofwhatamodeledsystemlooks
like,whatdataneedstobecollected,andhowtheelementsofthesimulationinteractinaProModel
softwareenvironment.
Nowthatthesimulationprocesshasbeencoveredandstudentsareversedinthetermsof
simulationmodeling,thenextsectionistheProModeltutorial.Thefirstexercise(Model1)isabasic
machine/queuemodelthatintroducesthestudenttotheProModelinterfaceandthefouressential
elementsofanysimulationmodel.Italsoasksthestudenttoanswerafewfairlysimplequestionabout
thesystem,suchasfindcertainmetricsandhowlongandentityisinthesystem.Thisallowsthestudent
togetusedtohowdataisoutputtedbythesimulationandhowtoreadtheoutput.Thesecondexercise

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usesModel1thatthestudenthadpreviouslybuiltbutprovidesdatasaidtohavebeencollectedfrom
therealworldsystem.ItgivesthestudenttheopportunitytousetheStat::Fittoolandteachesthem
howtotakerawdata,testit,andconfigureitinawaythatisusefulforprogrammingthesimulation
model.Thestudentisaskedtocomparethetwomodelstotryandjustifyachangethathasbeenmade.
Doingthis,getsthestudentsthinkinglikeamodeler.Iftheycangrasptheconceptofjustifyingachange
tothesystembasedonachangeinthesystemsperformancemetrics,theyareontrack.
Model3beginstoaddcomplexitytothemachine/queuemodel.Teachingstudentssystem
elementssuchasuserdefineddistributions,attributes,resources,pathnetworks,andadvanced
processinglogicworkstoexpandtheirknowledgeofProModelandsimulationmodelsingeneral.The
morecomplexitiesofsimulationsystemsthatthestudentsareexposedtointheirbrieflabs,themore
comfortabletheywillbeapplyingtheseelementsinthefuture.Model3alsoasksstudentstoanswer
somequestionsonwhatifanalysis.Askinghowmetricschangewhenaddingmoreresourcesor
shorteningprocessingtimesareexampleofactualsituationsthatmodelerstestwhendoingasimulation
study,furtheradvancingthestudentsunderstandingastowhatasimulationstudyiscapableof.
SincequestionsinModel3arefairlyadvanced,thepurposeofModel4istointroducemore
simulationelements.Addingevenmoreadvancedprocessinglogicgivesthestudentabetterideaof
howtohandlecertainroutingsituations,aswellasexpandsthestudentshorizonsintermsofrouting
rulesandthedifferentfunctionsthatcanbeexecutedinprocessinglogic.Globalvariablesallow
studentstotrackentitiesthroughthesystem.
Theoutputanalysissectionexplainstherulesandproceduresinvolvedinsettingupasimulation
experiment.Thissectionteacheshowtodeterminehowlongtorunasimulation,warmuptime,and
numberofreplications.Itthendetailshowtodeterminewhetherdifferencesinmetricsarestatistically
significantandwhetherornotcertainmodificationstothesystemarejustifiable.

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Themanualsappendicesaredesignedtocoverwhatishappeningbehindthescenesofthe
simulationmodelonProModel.Sincestudentdontnecessarilyneedtoknowhowtoperformtaskssuch
asgeneraterandomnumbersorperformqueuingtheoryinordertobuildasuccessfulsimulation,
viewingappendicesisawayforthemtosatisfyanyquestionstheymayhaveaboutthedrivingforce
behindthesimulationsoftware.Theappendicesarealsowheretipsandextrainformationcanbefound
suchasinformationonprobabilitydistributionsandprocessingfunctionsinProModel.
Methods
DevelopingtheManual
Thelayoutandorderofinformationprovidedisveryimportanttohowwelltheinformationand
conceptsarelearned.Tofigureoutinwhatordertheinformationshouldbepresentedin,much
researchwasdonebylookingthroughothersimulationbooks.Manysimulationbookshaveverysimilar
orderswhenpresentingintroductoryinformation.
Whenpeoplehearsimulation,theydontalwaysknowexactlywhatisbeingtalkedabout.
Sincetherearesomanytypesofsimulation,manyofwhichhavelittletonothingtodowith
engineering,itisimportanttospecifyrightofthebatwhichkindofsimulationisbeingreferredto.
Thecontentofthemanualisfocusedtowardmanufacturingengineers.Usingexamplesof
factoryenvironments,themodelsdealwithanenvironmentwhichupperclassmanufacturingengineers
arealreadycomfortablewith.Thisallowsthemtodrawfrompreviouslylearnedinformationtohelp
themintheirlearningprocess.
Skillsfromavarietyofclasseswereusedinpiecingthismanualtogether.Whilesimulation(IME
420)wasusemostpredominantly,itwasnttheonlyclassthatused.Inordertocreateworkingmodels,
alotofstatisticalanalysiswentintoshapingthecorrectdistributionstocreatethedesiredoutputs.This

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drawsoninformationfromIME326asdoestheoutputanalysissectionwhichdealswithhypothesis
testingandjustifyingchanges.Operationsresearchwasusedtoformthesectiononqueuingtheorythat
showsthestudentotheroptionsastohowaprobleminasystemcouldbesolved.Anotherclassthat
wasusedwasengineeringeconomics(IME314)whendecidingimplementationoptionsandthe
feasibilityofthoseoptions.Adesignofexperimentswasmadetodeterminewhetherornotthismanual
isagoodoptiontoimplementwhichdrawsonknowledgefrommanypreviouslytakenIMEcourses.
TestingtheManual
Inordertotestwhetherornotthismanualisagoodsolutiontotheproblembeingsolved,an
experimentwassetup.Thepurposeofthisexperimentwastoseewhetherornottherewasa
differenceinstudentcomprehension,modelingtime,andTAutilization.Byteachingsimulationto
upperclass(thirdyearormore)industrialandmanufacturingengineerswithnosimulationexperience
usingboththesimulationmanualandthecurrentmethod,thehopeistoprovethatthesimulation
manualmethodscoresbetterinallthreecategoriesthandoesthecurrentmethod.
Subjectswereapproachedandaskedtheiryear,theirmajor,andwhetherornottheyhadtaken
asimulationrelatedcourse.Ifthesubjectfitallofthecriteria,theywereaskedtoparticipate.Ifthe
subjectaccepted,whichwasdifficultbecauseofthelargetimecommitment,theyweresetupeitherat
acomputerwiththebeginningofthesimulationmanual(throughModel2),orsetupwithacomputer
andacopyoftheproblemstatementsandquestionsbelongingtoModel1and2.Ifthesubjectwasset
upwiththelabmanualtheyweregivenabasicsetofinstructions:
Iamconductinganexperimenttestinghowtheuseofthissimulationmanual
comparestothecurrentsimulationteachingmethodsused.Youhavebeengivena
sectionofthemanualtoreadandcompletetwomodels.Ifyouareunabletoanswera
questionineitherofthesemodels,skipthatquestionandmoveon.Ifyouhavea
questionaboutanythingcontainedinthemanualoraquestionaboutProModel,letme
knowandIwillassistyou.

Assoonasthesubjectstartedtoreadthemanual,atimerwasstarted.Thistimerrunsuntilthe
subjectisdonewiththeexperiment.Thesubjectreadthroughthemanualandbeganmodeling.Ifthe

15

subjectneededhelpfromtheTA,asecondtimerwasstartedandtheTAassistedthesubject.Thetimer
wasstoppedwhenthesubjectsproblem/questionwassolved.Thetimerwasstartedagaineachtime
anotherquestionhadtobeasked.Whenthesubjectwasfinished,thefirsttimerwasstopped.Totest
comprehension,thesubjectwasthengivenashortquizonkeyconceptsthatshouldhavebeenlearned
whichcanbefoundinAppendixA.ThetotaltimeandTAtimeswererecorded,thequizwasgraded,and
thesubjectwasthankedfortheirtime.
Ifthelatteroptionwasthecase,asecondcomputerwassetuprightnexttothatofthesubject
sothesubjectcouldseebothscreens.ThesecondcomputerwasrunbytheTA(Brian).Thesubjectwas
readasetofbasicinstructions:
Iamconductinganexperimenttestinghowtheuseofmyseniorprojectcomparesto
thecurrentsimulationteachingmethodsused.Youhavebeengiventheproblem
statementfortwomodelswhichIwillwalkyouthroughhowtobuild.Beforewestart
buildingthesemodels,Iwillgiveyouanintroductiontosimulation,itselements,and
somemetricsthatareusedinevaluation.Ifyouhaveanyquestions,letmeknowandI
willassistyou.
Thetimerwasstartedastheintroductionbegan.TheTAthenproceededtoteachthemanual
sectionsgiventothefirstgroupofsubjects.Oncetheintroductionwascomplete,theTAbegantowalk
thesubjectthroughmakingModel1.WhenModel1wasfinishedbythesubject,thesubjectbegan
answeringthequestionscorrespondingtoModel1.Whenthesubjecthadfinishedallthequestionsthat
theycould,asimilarprocesswasperformedwithModel2.WhenModel2iscompleteandthesubject
hadattemptedtoansweralltheModel2questions,thetimerwasstoppedandthesameshortquizwas
given.
Thenullhypothesisinthisexperimentisthatalltimemeasurementswillbeequalandthatthe
comprehensionlevelusingeachmethodwillbeequal.Rejectinganyofthesehypotheseswillprove
usefulinjustifyingtheuseofthemanual.

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Thereareanumberofvariablesinthisexperimentthatmustbetakenintoaccount.Controlled
variablesinthisexperimentarethetestequipment(manual,computer,stopwatches),testlocation,the
TA(Brian),levelofsubjectseducation,andtheirmajor.Uncontrolledvariablesinthisexperiment
includesubjectspaceoflearning,subjectsfamiliaritywithcomputers,subjectsabilitytotype,and
subjectspreviouseducation(justbecausetheyhavenottakensimulation,doesntnecessarilymeanthat
theyarenotfamiliarwithtermsormetrics).Someconfoundingvariablesincludenoiselevelinroom,
otherstudentsinroom,andsubjectsattentivenessoverlongtestperiod.
ImplementationPlan
Thesimulationmanualcanbeimplementedquiteeasily,andatalowcostaswell.Currently,
IME342usesasharedfolderdesignatedfortheclassthatislocatedontheZdriveinbuilding192
(EngineeringIV).Inthisfolder,therearecurrentlysamplesimulations,problemstatements,and
samplesofdata.Byreplacingthesefiles,oraddingafoldercontainingthemanualfile,data,andsample
simulations,thesefilescouldbeaccessibletoallstudentsinagivenlabperiod.Thisisalsoagood
locationtokeepthemanualbecauseeveryindustrialandmanufacturingengineeringstudenthasaccess
toit.Ifanystudentneedstorefertothemanualatanypoint,itisalwaysthere.Anystudentcouldeasily
copyitontoaflashdriveaswell.
Thisimplementationplancostsnothingtoimplement.Itonlyrequiresmovingafewfilesinto
thedesignatedfolder.However,therecouldbesomeissueshavingtoviewthemanualonthecomputer
screenwhileattemptingtomakeasimulationonthesamecomputerscreen.Thisiswhyitmaybe
necessarytoprintoutacopyofthemanual.Ifthisisthecase,eachstudentwouldneedacopy.Ifthe
manualsareprintedbytheIMEdepartment,theestimatedcostscanbefoundinTable1intheresults
section.Anotheroptionwouldbetohavestudentschoosewhetherornottheyneededaphysicalcopy
ofthemanualortheywerefineworkingwithoneonthescreen.Inthiscase,itwouldbeonthe

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studentstoprintacopyofthemanualontheirowndime.Sincethemanualwouldbeinasharedfolder,
itwouldbeeasilyaccessibleforstudentstoprint.
Results
Afterperformingtheexperiment,datawasgatheredandanalyzedandcanbeseeninTable1.
Thefirstthingthatwasnoticedwhenanalyzingthedataisthatduetothelackofdata,itisdifficultto
drawanydefiniteconclusions.Sincetheexperimenttookquiteabitoftimetoconductandthetarget
populationwasfewinnumbers,collectinglargeamountsofdatapointswasinfeasible.Thislackofdata
forcestheanalysttousealeveloferrorhigherthanonethatwouldbeusedinthepresenceofmore
data.Usingaleveloferrorbetween.1<<.15seemsfeasibleindeterminingwhetherornotthedatais
statisticallysignificant.Ifahigherlevelofconfidenceisneeded,moredatamustbegathered.

Table1:RawDatafromTestExperiment

Thetotaltimetoperformtheexperimentforthesubjectsthatusedthemanualwasfoundto
be95.33minutes.Thisiscomparedtothe80.76minutesthatittookthesubjectstofinishthe
experimentwithoutthemanual.This15minutedifferencehasapvalueof.095(Dataanalysiscanbe
foundinAppendixB).Atasignificancelevelof=.05,thisdataisnotstatisticallysignificant.However,
duetothesmallsamplesize,suchahighconfidencelevel(95%)isaskingalotfromthelimiteddata
Subject#
TotalTime
(min)
TATime
(min)
Comprehension
Score
Subject#
Total
Time
(min)
TATime
(min)
Comprehension
Score
1 94.3 16.38 3.5 1 87.05 14.23 3
2 103.77 22.52 5 2 73.52 17.35 4
3 87.93 24.18 4.5 3 81.7 16.83 2.5
Averages: 95.33 21.03 4.33 Averages: 80.76 16.14 3.17
WithManual WithoutManual

18

available.Ithinkthatitissafetosaythat90.5%confidenceishighenoughtoconcludethatittakesa
statisticallysignificantlongeramountoftimetousethemanualthanitdoestobuildthemodelsusing
TAhelp.Thestandarddeviationofthesubjectsusingthemanualwasalsohigher.Thisriseinexperiment
timeisnotadealbreakerinimplementingthemanual.Sincestudentsinalabhave3hourstocomplete
andanswerquestionsforthissectionofthemanual,anhourandahalftocompletethisexerciseisnota
significantlyhugejumpinexperimenttime.Sincestudentsworkatdifferentpaces,andaverageof95
minutesleavesplentyofroomforslowerstudentstofinishthelabexercisewithintheallottedtime
period.
WhenexaminingthetimethattheTAspenthelpingeachstudentindividually,similarresults
werefound.ThetimethattheTAspentindividuallywitheachstudentwasapproximately5minutes
longerwiththemanualthanwithout.Thisproducedapvalueequalto.196.Thisstatistichastobeused
withcautionhowever.Sincethetimemeasurementwasonlytakenwhenthesubjectaskedforhelp
fromtheTA,whentheTAwasinstructingusingtheircomputer,thetimewasnotcounted.Therefore,
theTAspentmoretimeteaching,butendedupspendinglesstimewiththesubjectoneonone.
Thecomprehensionscoreonthequizgivenafterthetestwasthestatisticthatwasofmost
interest.Sincetherearefairlyloosetimeconstraintsinalabperiod,aslongasittooksignificantlyless
than3hourstocompletetheexperiment,itdidntreallymatterhowlongthemodelstaketobuildas
longasthesubjectcomprehendswhattheyareactuallydoing.Thecomprehensionscoresshowan
averageof4.33outofapossible6forthesubjectswhousedthemanualandanaveragescoreof3.17
forsubjectwhodidnotusethemanual.Usinga2samplettest,thepvaluewasfoundtobe.135.This
differencecanbeconsideredsignificantduetothesmallnumberofsubjectssampled.Ifmoresubjects
weresampledwithsimilarresults,thepvaluewouldbemuchless.

19

UsingthesecondimplementationoptionwouldrequiretheIMEdepartmenttoprintoutacopy
ofthemanualforeachstudentenrolledinthecourse.Table2isabreakdownofwhatitwouldcostto
printthemanualinbothcolorandblackandwhite.Thiscostismoreorlessastartupcostbecausethe
manualscanbereusedeachquarterandwouldnotrequireaseparateprintingforeachquarter,butdue
tostudentstaking/breakingmanuals,afewmayhavetobereprintedovertime.
Table2:CostofPrintingtheManualinBothColorandBlack&White
(http://www.bestvaluecopy.com/)
SincethecomprehensionscoresarehigherwithouttheTAmethod,itisplausibletoassumethat
theTAmaynotbeneededinthelabperiodtoteachstudentsProModelandthattheinstructorcould
handleanyquestionsthatstudentsmayhave.Ifthisisthecase,droppingtheTAfromthelabperiods
wouldbebeneficialtotheIMEdepartment.AssumingTAsarepaid$10/hourfortheirservices,Table3
showsthepaybackperiodofimplementingthemanualinavarietyofways.Basedonthehowmany
copiesareprintedandwhetherornotcolorinkisused,thepaybackperiodforimplementingthe
manualintolabperiodsforIME342isbetween.27and2.08quarters.Thisintervalisareasonable
amountoftimeforjustifyingtheprintingofthemanualforeachstudent.

CostofColor
Copies/page($)
CostofB&W
Copies/page($)
Numberof
Copies
Costof
Color
Manuals
($)
Costof
B&W
Copies
($)
0.09 0.023 20 93.6 23.92
30 140.4 35.88
NumberofPages
inmanual=
52 40 187.2 47.84

20

Table3:PaybackPeriodAnalysis
NubmerofCopiesPrinted
20 30 40
ColorPrintor
B&W
Color B&W Color B&W Color B&W
CostofPrinting $90 $23 $135 $34.5 $180 $46
PaybackPeriod(in
acedemic
quarters)
1.00 0.26 1.50 0.38 2.00 0.51

CostofTA $90

Conclusions

Afterthewriting,testing,andjustificationofthemanual,implementationseemstobea
plausibleandbeneficialoption.Byusingthismanualnotonlydoesstudentscomprehensionofthe
subjectmatterrisecomparedtocurrentmethods,butitallowsthedepartmentincreasedflexibility.
Thedepartmenthasavarietyofimplementationoptionsforthissolution.Usingthismanual,a
TAteachingthisclasshasfarlessresponsibilityforconveyingthesubjectmattertothestudents.This
allowsthedepartmentincreasedflexibilityastowhotheyfindtobeaTAfortheclass.TheTAwouldbe
reducedtoaoneononehelperasopposedtoateacheranddoesntnecessarilyneedquitethelevelof
expertise.TheimplementationcouldalsoeliminatetheneedforaTAalltogetheriftheinstructorfeels
theycanhandlethestudentsoneononequestioning.
Themanualcanbeimplementedwithlittletonocostbyplacingitasafileinasharedfolderor
byprintingacopyforeachstudentforamarginalfee.PuttingthefileinthesharedfolderofIME342not
onlyallowsstudentinthatclasstoaccessitatanytime,butallowsanyIMEstudentaccesstothis

21

resource.Theotheroptionisforthedepartmenttoprintoutcopiesofthemanual.Withapayback
periodofbetween.27and2.08quarters,thisinvestmentonbehalfofthedepartmentisjustifiable
comparedtothepotentialbenefitsthatitbrings.Withthescarcityofsuitablesimulationresources
available,theoptionofmakingitavailableinasharedfolderforstudentstouseorprintatanytime
seemstobethemostbeneficial.
Thebenefittothedepartmentisnice,buttherealobjectiveofthismanualistoincrease
studentsunderstandingofthesimulationprocessanduseofProModel.Thismanualisprovento
increasestudentsunderstandingandhelpstudentstoretaininformationaboutthispowerfultool,it
providesaresourceforaclassenvironmentwhereonecurrentlydoesnotexist,anditpromotesstudent
learningoutsideofclasstime.Theuseofthissolutioncanbebeneficialtoallpartiesinvolved.

22

Bibliography

1. Abbott,AnthonyS.HandbookofCollegeTeaching.Ed.KeithPrichardandR.McLarenSawyer.
Westport,CT:GreenwoodPress,1994.Print,pg.179

2. Benson,Deborah."SimulationModelingandOptimizationUsingProModel."Proc.of1997Winter
SimulationConference,Atlanta,GA.17.Print.
3. Erickson,BetteLaSere,andDianeWeltnerStrommer.TeachingCollegeFreshman.SanFrancisco:
JosseyBass,1991.Print.

4. Fishman,GeorgeS.DiscreteEventSimulationModeling,Programming,andAnalysis.Ed.PeterGlynn
andStephenM.Robinson.NewYork:SpringerVerlag,2001.Print.

5. Harrell,Charles,andKerimTumay.SimulationMadeEasy:AManager'sGuide.Ed.MauraReeves.
USA:InstituteofIndustrialEngineers,1995.Print,pg.111

6. Harrell,CharlesandGhosh,BimanK.andBowden,RoyceIII.SimulationUsingProModel.McGraw
HillCompaniesInc.,2004.Print.

7. Jones,WilliamFrank.HandbookofCollegeTeaching.Ed.KeithPrichardandR.McLarenSawyer.
Westport,CT:GreenwoodPress,1994.Print.

8. Law,AverillM.,andW.DavidKelton.SimulationModelingandAnalysis.3rded.NewYork:McGraw
Hill,2000.Print.

9. Lewis,P.A.W.,andE.J.Orav.SimulationMethodologyforStatisticians,OperationsAnalysts,and
Engineers.Vol.1.Belmont:Wadsworth,1989.Print.

10. Leemis,LawrenceM.andPark,StephenK.DiscreteEventSimulation:AFirstCourse.UpperSaddle
River,NJ:PearsonPrenticeHall,2006.Print.

11. LindseyJr.,CrawfordW.TeachingStudentstoTeachThemselves.NewYork:GP,1988.Print.

12. Linhart,H.,andW.Zucchini.ModelSelection.NewYork:JohnWiley&Sons,1986.Print.

13. McCain,Ted.TeachingforTomorrow:TeachingContentandProblemSolving.ThousandOaks,CA:
Corwinpress,2005.Print

23

14. Rubinstein,ReuvenY.andMelamed,Benjamin.ModernsimulationandModeling.NewYork:John
Wiley&Sons,1998.Print.

15. Schmidt,J.W.,andR.E.Taylor.SimulationandAnalysisofIndustrialSystems.Homewood,IL:
RichardD.Irwin,1970.Print.IrwinSer.inQuantitativeAnalysisforBusiness.

16. Standridge,CharlesR."TeachingSimulationUsingCaseStudies."Proc.of2000WinterSimulation
Conference.Web.

17. Thompson,JamesR.Simulation:AModelersApproach.NewYork:JohnWiley&Sons,2000.Print.

18. MerriamWebster'scollegiatedictionary(10thed.).Springfield,MA:MerriamWebster,1993.

24

Appendix A: Comprehension Test

ComprehensionTest
Didyouusethemanual?Yes____No____
HowdoesProModelsimulaterandombehaviorinasystem?
Throughprobabilitydistributions

Insimulationterms,amodelis:
A.Awaytolookathowdifferentelementschangemetrics
B.Anabstractrepresentationofarealsystem
C.Acopyofasystemonacomputerprogram
D.Noneoftheabove

Whatarethefouressentialelementsofbuildingasimulation?
Locations,entities,arrivals,processing

AftersimulationelementsarebuiltonProModel,whatisthenextstepinthesimulationprocess?
verificationandvalidation

Throughputisanexampleofakeyperformance___metric_____.Describethroughput.
Throughputisthenumberofentitiesprocessedthroughthesystemoveragiventimeperiod.

Describethedifferencebetweenstaticanddynamicsimulation.
staticsimulationdoesnotusetimeasastatevariablewhereasdynamicsimulationdoes.

25

Appendix B: Data Analysis

DataSet1:TwosamplettestcomparingTotalTimewithManualvs.WithoutManual

Two- sampl e T f or Ti me w vs Ti me w/ o

N Mean St Dev SE Mean
Ti me w 3 95. 33 7. 97 4. 6
Ti me w/ o 3 80. 76 6. 81 3. 9


Di f f er ence = mu ( Ti me w) - mu ( Ti me w/ o)
Est i mat e f or di f f er ence: 14. 58
95%CI f or di f f er ence: ( - 4. 69, 33. 84)
T- Test of di f f er ence = 0 ( vs not =) : T- Val ue = 2. 41 P- Val ue = 0. 095 DF = 3

DataSet2:TwosamplettestcomparingTATimewithManualvs.WithoutManual

Two- sampl e T f or TA w vs TA w/ o

N Mean St Dev SE Mean
TA w 3 21. 03 4. 11 2. 4
TA w/ o 3 16. 14 1. 67 0. 97


Di f f er ence = mu ( TA w) - mu ( TA w/ o)
Est i mat e f or di f f er ence: 4. 89
95%CI f or di f f er ence: ( - 6. 13, 15. 91)
T- Test of di f f er ence = 0 ( vs not =) : T- Val ue = 1. 91 P- Val ue = 0. 196 DF = 2

DataSet3:TwosamplettestcomparingComprehensionTestScoreswithManualvs.WithoutManual

Two- sampl e T f or Comp w vs Comp w/ o

N Mean St Dev SE Mean
Comp w 3 4. 333 0. 764 0. 44
Comp w/ o 3 3. 167 0. 764 0. 44


Di f f er ence = mu ( Comp w) - mu ( Comp w/ o)
Est i mat e f or di f f er ence: 1. 167
95%CI f or di f f er ence: ( - 0. 565, 2. 898)
T- Test of di f f er ence = 0 ( vs not =) : T- Val ue = 1. 87 P- Val ue = 0. 135 DF = 4

Dis screte
Manu
Cal
Event
ufacturi
W
Bri
iforniaPolyt
Simula
ing Ap

Writtenby:
ianHughes

2011
technicState
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Manual
ions
l:

26

27

Table of Contents
What is Simulation. .............................................................................................................................................................. Su
Whentousesimulation..........................................................................................................................31
Simulation Nouel Elements .............................................................................................................................................. S2
Key Peifoimance metiics ................................................................................................................................................... S2
Simulation Piocess ................................................................................................................................................................ S4
FormulatetheProblem...........................................................................................................................34
Buildaconceptualmodel/DataCollection.............................................................................................34
ModelValidation.....................................................................................................................................36
Programmingthemodel.........................................................................................................................36
ModelVerification/Validation................................................................................................................37
OutputAnalysis/Results.........................................................................................................................37
PioNouel Tutoiial ................................................................................................................................................................. S8
Model1:MachineOperator...................................................................................................................38
Model2:Statfit......................................................................................................................................45
Model3:FlowShop................................................................................................................................48
0utput Analysis ...................................................................................................................................................................... 62
Appenuix A: PseuuoRanuom Numbei ueneiation ................................................................................................. 67
ExampleA1.............................................................................................................................................68
Appenuix B: Queuing Theoiy ............................................................................................................................................ 7u
Appenuix C: Piobability Bistiibutions .......................................................................................................................... 72
Appenuix B: PioNouel Piocess anu Routing Functions ........................................................................................ 7S

28

List of Figures

Figuie 1: Nouel Types ......................................................................................................................................................... S1

Figuie 2: Examples of Conceptual Nouels .................................................................................................................. SS
Figuie S: Builu Nenus Foui Essential Elements ...................................................................................................... S9
Figuie 4: Locations Winuow ............................................................................................................................................. 4u
Figuie S: Aiiivals Winuow................................................................................................................................................. 41
Figuie 6: Blank Piocessing anu Routing Winuow .................................................................................................... 41
Figuie 7: Piocessing Winuow ........................................................................................................................................... 42
Figuie 8: Simulation 0ptions Nenu ............................................................................................................................... 4S
Figuie 9: Auto::Fit Nenu ..................................................................................................................................................... 47
Figuie 1u: Locations Winuow anu Layout Winuow foi Nouel S ....................................................................... 49
Figuie 11: Attiibutes Winuow ......................................................................................................................................... Su
Figuie 12: 0sei Bistiibution Winuow with the Table foi Type Winuow Expanueu ................................. Su
Figuie 1S: Aiiivals Winuow with Aiiival Logic Winuow Expanueu ................................................................ S1
Figuie 14: Resouices winuow .......................................................................................................................................... S1
Figuie 1S: Path Netwoik Winuow with Layout Winuow ...................................................................................... S2
Figuie 16: Path Netwoiks Winuows with Location Inteifaces Shown............................................................ SS
Figuie 17: Path Netwoiks Specification Winuow .................................................................................................... SS
Figuie 18: Routing foi Piouuct at the Lathe queue .......................................................................................... S4
Figuie 19: 0peiations Winuow Expanueu with Compile Button Bighlighteu ............................................. SS
Figuie 2u: Compaiison of Two Piocessing Nethous .............................................................................................. S6
Figuie 21: Nouel S Simulation Run Time .................................................................................................................... S6
Figuie 22: }oin Routing Rule foi Component 2 at Assembly ............................................................................... 6u
Figuie 2S: }oin Request of Subasembly1 at Assembly ........................................................................................... 6u
Figuie 24: Piocessing anu Routing Logic foi Nouel 4 ............................................................................................ 6u
Figuie 2S: Waim up peiiou Analysis ............................................................................................................................. 6S
Figuie 26: Wait time vs numbei of seiveis ................................................................................................................ 64
Figuie 27: TukeyKiamei Test of Neans baseu on numbei of seiveis ........................................................... 64
Figuie 28: Tukey test of means baseu on numbei of seiveis ............................................................................. 6S
Figuie 29:Bata foi numbei of seiveis .......................................................................................................................... 6S
Figuie A1: 0nifoim Piobability Bistiibution ............................................................................................................ 68

29

List of Tables

Table 1: Location Bata Results ......................................................................................................................................... 4S

Table 2: Entity Bata Results: ............................................................................................................................................. 4S
Table S: Bata Neasuieu fiom Nouel 2 System .......................................................................................................... 4S
Table 4: Bistiibution Bata foi Nouel S locations ..................................................................................................... 48
Table S: Location Statistics: ............................................................................................................................................... S7
Table 6: Resouice Statistics: ............................................................................................................................................. S7
Table 7: Entity Statistics: .................................................................................................................................................... S7
Table A1: Fiist Ten Ranuom Numbeis ......................................................................................................................... 68
TableA2: Fiist Ten Ranuom Numbeis .......................................................................................................................... 69

30

WhatisSimulation?
Simulationistheactionofperformingexperimentsonamodelofagivensystembythe
generationofdataconsistentwiththatgeneratedbytherealsystem.Overthepast50years,simulation
hasbeengainingwidespreadacceptanceasapowerfultool.Performingasimulationexperiment
providesmanybenefitstothemodeler.Itenablesthemodelertoorganizetheirbeliefsand
observationsaboutasystemandprovidesthemwithabetterunderstandingofthesystembeing
modeled.Italsoallowsthemodelertoperformwhatifanalysisonthesystemwithoutactually
implementingthechangesinthesystem.Thisisgenerallylesscostlythanperformingaguessandcheck
analysisonthesystem.Beingabletorunasimulationofthesysteminafewminutesallowstheuserto
collectdataforhundredsofhours,thusexpeditingthetimeframethatittakestodoananalysisofthe
system.
Therearemanytypesofsimulation,eachofwhichhasitsapplications.Firstly,asimulationcan
beeitherdeterministicorstochastic.Adeterministicsystemhasnorandomcomponents.Aconveyor
beltthatisrunningwithnodowntime,ataconstantspeed,thatfeedspartsataconstantrateisan
exampleofadeterministicsystem.Thishowever,isnotarealisticsystem;Peoplearenotmachines,
machinesfail,andservicerequestsoccuratrandom.Thisiswherethestochasticelementofa
simulationcomesin.Astochasticcomponentofasystemisonewithsomeelementofrandomness.Ina
deterministicmodel,pluggingintheparametersofthesystemwillgivethesameoutputeachrun,
howeverifthemodelisstochastic,theoutputwilldifferfromruntorun.
Asystemmodelcanalsobestaticordynamic.Astaticsystemdoesnottakeintoaccounttimeas
oneofthevariables.Amodeldesignedtoseewhatthedemandofacertainproductmaybeatacertain
instanceoftimemaybemodeledasastaticmodel.Ifitisastaticdeterministicmodel,theresultsare
thesameeachrun,whereasifthemodelisastaticstochastic,theresultswilldiffertoformaprobability
distributionforthemodelertointerpret.AstaticstochasticsimulationisalsoknownasaMonteCarlo
Simulation.Adynamicsystemmodelviewsasystemoveralengthoftime.Asthesimulationisrunover
thistimeperiodusingsomeclockmechanism,thesystemsstatevariableschange.Developinga
simulationthatinvestigateshowthedemandofaproductchangesovertimeisanexampleofadynamic
system.
Finally,ifthesystemisdynamic,thestatevariablescanchangeeithercontinuouslyovertime,
suchasthepriceofoil,oratdiscretetimeinstances.Manymechanicalsystemsusecontinuousmodels,
suchablockslidingdownaninclinedplaneoraflywheelpumpingapiston.Incontrast,themodelsthat
willbestudiedinthismanual,willallbediscrete.Discretemodelshaveeventsthatoccuratspecified
timeinstancesonly,suchasapartfinishedgettingprocessedatamachineandmovingtothenext
machine.
Discreteeventsimulation(DES)isdefinedbythesethreeattributes:ithasatleastsomestate
variablesoccurringatrandom(stochastic),theevolutionofstatevariablesovertimeisimportant
(dynamic),andchangestostatevariablesoccuratdiscretetimeinstancesonly.Thiscanbeseenin
Figure1:ModelTypes,onthefollowingpage.

31

SystemModel
Static Static
Stochastic Deterministic
Dynamic Dynamic
Continuous Discrete Continuous Discrete
MonteCarloSimulation
DiscreteEventSimulation

Figure1:ModelTypes

Whentousesimulation
Simulationisapowerfultoolandcanbeverybeneficialifitisperformedcorrectly.However,not
everysystemthatcanbesolvedusingsimulationshouldbesolvedusingit.Insimplecases,thevaluesof
performancemetricsareknown,oreasilyestimated,sothetimeandeffortusedtobuildandvalidatea
workingmodelcannotbecostjustifiedandprobablywillnotprovidethedesiredresults.Inslightlymore
complexmodels,performancemetricsmaybeunknown.However,queuingtheorymaybeabetter
approachtofiguringthesemetricsout.Oftentimes,simulationissimplytoopowerfulofatooltouseon
arelativelysimpleproblem.Simulationalsohasalimitationofbeingunabletosolvetechnologicalor
sociologicalissuessuchasmachinereliabilityorperformanceofaworkerontheline.
Discreteeventsimulationofferstechniquesthatcanapproximatethevaluesofperformance
metricswitharelativelysmallerror.Oftensimulationstudiesarecreatedandexecutedonacomplex
systemsimplytostudythealternativestotheexistingsystem.Itisusedtofigureouthowthesystem
respondstoachangeininputparametersorprocessingrules.Simulationoutputdataoftencanprovide
sufficientlyaccurateanswerstothesequestionsandenablethemodelertosharpentheirunderstanding
ofthesystem.
Idealconditionsforperformingasimulationarewhenthefollowingcriteriaholdtrue:
Alogicalorquantitativedecisionisbeingmade
Thesystemhaswelldefinedandrepetitiveprocesses
Eventsinthesystemareinterdependentofoneanotherandhavesomeelementof
randomness
Theimpactofthepotentialsavingsoutwaythatofthecostofperformingthe
simulation.
Experimentingontherealworldsystemismoreexpensivethanthecostofperforming
thesimulation

32

SimulationModelElements
LocationsTherearetwotypesoflocations.Thefirsttypeisonethatexistsintheactualsystem.
Entitiesareroutedtotheselocationsandperformsometaskthereuntiltheyareroutedtothenext
location.Theothertypeoflocationisonethatmaynotexistintherealsystem.Thistypeoflocationis
calledaqueue,whichactsasabuffertoalocationorlocationswithfixedcapacity.Entitieswaitinthe
queueuntilthereisopencapacityatthenextlocation.Ifthereisopencapacityattheprocessing
location,theentitywillskippastthequeueandbeprocessedatthatlocation.
EntitiesEntitiesaretheitemsthatareprocessedthroughthemodel.Entitiesmovefromlocationto
locationperformingtasksandexitthesystemwhenthesetasksarecomplete.Theycanbeanything
fromorders,toproducts,topeople.Metricssuchasthroughput,WIP,flowtime,andwaittimeareall
measuredbasedonwhatthesystemhastheentitiesdoing.
ArrivalsArrivalsaretherateatwhichentitiesenterthesystem.Often,entitysarrivalsarefittoa
probabilitydistributioninordertokeeptheelementofrandomnessinthesimulation.Entitiescaneither
enterasystemoneatatime,orasagroup.Thesizeofthegroupcanalsobefittoaprobability
distribution.
ProcessingTheprocessinglogicofthesimulationisthedrivingforcebehindentitiesmoving
throughoutthesystem.Processinglogictellsentitieswhereahowtomovefromlocationtolocation.It
alsodirectstheentitywhattodoateachlocationonceitgetsthere.
ResourcesResourcesprovidesupporttoentitiesthroughoutthesystem.Resourcescanbeusedto
processentitiesatalocationormoveentitiesthroughthesystem.Systemelementssuchasmaterial
handlingdevices,operators,orvehiclesaremodeledasresources.Inadequateresourceslimittherateat
whichprocessingcantakeplace.
AttributesAttributesareentitycharacteristicsthatareuniquetoeachentitysuchassize,quantity,
type,orweight.Theseattributesareassignedtoeachentitywhentheyenterthesystemandarecarried
bytheentitythroughoutthesystem.Attributescanbecalledforintheprocessinglogictodifferentiate
oneentityfromanotherandrouteeachtypeofentitytodifferentlocations.

KeyPerformancemetrics
Thereareafewkeyperformancemetricsthatsystemsaremeasuredby.Theymeasureoverall
performanceofasystemusuallybyamonetaryvalueandareusedbythetoplevelofanorganization.
Byoptimizingsomeorallofthesemetrics,theamountandeffectivenessofproductionwillrise.Using
simulationofferstheuseranopportunitytoforecastthesemetricsbychangingtheirmodelwithout
actuallychangingthesystemitself.Thismethodissuperiortoaguessandcheckmethodontheactual
systembecauseitislesscostlyandmoreresponsivetotheneedsofthesystem.Thesekeyperformance
metricsincludethefollowing:

33

FlowtimeFlowtimeistheaverageamountoftimeittakesanentitytopassthroughthesystem.Also
knownascycletime,itismadeupofthefollowingactivities:waittime,movetime,queuetime,setup
time,andruntime.Reducingthefirstfouractivities,whicharenonvalueaddedtimes,reducestheflow
time.Reductionofflowtimeincreasesthecapacityofthesystemasawhole,sincelesstimeisrequired
toprocesseachentity.Reductionofflowtimealsoreducesleadtime,whichgivesasystemmore
flexibility.
ThroughputThroughputistheproductivityofamachine,process,orsystemoveragivenperiodof
time.Itcanbeexpressedinoutputperhour,numberofordersbeingshipped,orcost/revenueofgoods
produced.Productionmanagerstrytomaximizetheamountofthroughputinamanufacturingsystem
byreducingvarianceandcycletime(flowtime).Throughputismeasuredundernormalconditionsas
opposedtometricslikemanufacturersratedspeed,whichmeasuresproductionunderoptimal
conditions.
UtilizationUtilizationisthepercentageoftimethataresourceorlocationisused.Thismetriccanbe
misleadingasahighutilizationmeansthataresourceisbeingusedoften.Whileitisimportanttouse
resourcesefficiently,ahighutilizationalsomeansthatthegivenresourcemaynothavethecapacityto
handletheflowthroughthesystem.Usingthismetricinconjunctionwithothermetricssuchas
throughputandWIPcanprovideinsightintowhatisbestforoverallsystemperformance.
ValueAddedTimeValueaddedtimereferstotheamountoftimethataproductisreceivingvalue
thatacustomeriswillingtopayfor.Activitieslikewaitinginaqueue,beingtransported,orbeing
inspecteddonotaddanyvaluetotheproductitselfandstepstoreducetheamountofnonvalueadded
timeshouldbetaken.Theseunnecessaryactivitiescostmoneyforanorganization,meaningtheproduct
mustbesoldforahighervalue.Ifacustomerdoesntfeeltheyaregettingthevaluetheyarepayingfor,
theywilltaketheirbusinesselsewhere.
VarianceVariancereferstotheinstabilitythatoccursintheothermetrics.Sincetherearestochastic
elementsinanyprocess,thevalueoftheothermetricschangefromperiodtoperiod.Byreducing
variancethroughimplementingstandardoperatingproceduresandothertechniques,anorganization
cangetamoreaccurateforecastwhenmeasuringothermetrics.Thisreducesriskandallowsan
organizationtobetterscheduleproduction.
WaittimeWaitTimeisthecombinedtimesthataproductspendswaitinginthesystem.Thistime
includestimeswaitinginqueueorotherinventorylocations,waitingforaresourcetoprocessit,or
waitingforothercomponentstocreateanassembly.Waittimeisnonvalueaddedtimeandproduction
managersseektoreducetheamountofwaittimewithouttoomuchcapitalinvestment.
WIPWIP,orWorkInProcess,referstheamountofproductthathasbeguntheproductionprocess,but
hasyettobecompleted.Thisproducttakesupstoragespaceandrepresentsacapitalrisk.Thisriskis
duetothepossibilityoflinespoilageor,dependingontheproductlifecycle,theriskofbecoming
obsolete.Becauseoftheserisks,productionmanagersaimtominimizetheamountofWIP.Theamount
ofWIPinaqueuesignalsthatthegivenlocationiswellbuffered,butalsosignalsthatthegivenlocation

34

maynothaveenoughcapacitytoprocesstheamountofproductbeingfedtoit.JIT(JustInTime)
strategiessuchaslinebalancing,pullsystems,andrestrictedproductionatnonbottlenecklocationscan
controlWIPlevels.

SimulationProcess
FormulatetheProblem
Onceithasbeendeterminedthatdiscreteeventsimulationisanappropriatetool,anorganization
needstodeterminewhatthegoalsandobjectivesofthesimulationstudyare.Oftentimesthegoalsare
simplesuchas:Shouldweaddanothermachine?orWeneedtoincreasethroughput,whileother
timestheexactproblemtobesolvedisnotnecessarilystatedorevenunderstoodbytheorganization.A
goodfirststepistoobservethesystemandwatchhowitoperates.Fromthere,onecanidentifyareasof
improvementandperformancemetricstolookcloselyat.(Seepg.33forkeyperformancemetrics)
Takeforexampleajobshopwithmanyproductshavingmanydifferentroutingrequirements.What
objectivesmightthisshophavewhenstartingasimulation?
Howmanymachinesdoweneed?
Howmanyoperatorsdoweneed?Andwhen?Where?
Howcanwereduceproductwaittime?
HowcanwedecreaseWIP?
Dowehaveanadequateamountoftooling?
Dowekeepanadequateamountofinventory?

Asyoucanseetherearemanypotentialquestionsthatcanarise,whichiswhyitisimportanttodefine
thescopeoftheproject.Thescopeshouldberealisticandachievablebasedonthetimeandresources
thatonehastoconductthestudy.Someofthesequestionsmaynotfallintothescope.Forexample,if
youareonlyworriedabouthowlongtheproductsspendwaiting,youmayonlylookatthefactorsthat
affectproductwaittime.

Buildaconceptualmodel/DataCollection
Oncethemodelerhasobservedthesystemandhasseenhowitoperates,aconceptualmodel
mustbemadethatturnstherealworldsystemintoelementsthatcanbeusedwhensimulating.Since
theconceptualmodelisanabstractoftheexistingsystem,itisimportantthatthemodelerdefines
whichelementsoftheexistingsystemtouse,andwhichtoleaveout.Itwouldbenicetobeableto
includeeveryelement,butasmoredetailsareaddedtothemodel,thetimeandeffortthatittakesto
includemoredetailsoutwaystheactualbenefittothemodel.Acommonproblemforinexperienced
modelersistotryandmodeltheentiresystem.Thereshouldnotalwaysbeaonetoone
correspondencetoeachelementinthesystem,asshowninFigure2d.Startbymakingabasicmodel
andembellishasneeded.

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36

Datacollectioncanbedoneconcurrentlywiththebuildingoftheconceptualmodelora
modelercanchoosetodosoafterwards.Theframeworkoftheconceptualmodelactsasaguideforthe
modelertoknowwhatpiecesofdatahavetobecollected.LookingatFigure2a,itcanbeseenthatdata
collectionisneededforentitiesarrivinginthesystemandprocessingtimefortheentitiesatmachine1.
Nodataneedstobetakenatqueuelocations.Theselocationsactasbuffertothelocationstheyfeed
into.Figure2bmodelsasystemwhereacertainpercentageofarrivalsneedtobeprocessedatmachine
1,andtheremainingarrivalsareprocessedatmachine2.Thepercentageofentitiesgoingtoeach
machineisalsosomethingthemodelerneedstokeepinmindwhencollectingdatafromthesystem.
Itisalsoimportanttocollectperformancedatafromyoursystemaswell.Inordertocompare
thesimulationfindingstowhatisactuallygoingoninthesystem,thisisdatathemodelerwillneed.
Referbacktotheobjectivesofyoursimulationstudy.Whatmetricsareyoulookingtoimprove?Make
suretotakenoteofthesemetricswhendoingthedatacollection.
Oncethedatahasbeengathered,analysisonthedataisthenperformed.Ofteninexperienced
modelersthinkthatusingthemeanvalueofalltheobservationsforacertainlocationwillgivean
accuratelookintohowthatlocationoperatesoverthelongrun.Thishowever,isnotthecase.Byonly
usingthemeanvalue,theelementofrandomnessistakenawayfromthemodel.Thedataforarrivals
andlocationsmustbefittoaprobabilitydistribution.ProModelhasatoolcalledStat::Fit,whichallows
themodelertoconfirmthatthedatacollectedisvalidandfitsittoadistribution.
ModelValidation
Modelvalidationisacrucialstepthatensurestheconceptualmodelaccuratelyreflectshowthe
actualsystemoperates.Iftheconceptualmodeliswrongormakestoomanyassumptions,everystepin
thesimulationprocessafteritwillhavebeenmeaningless.Oftentimesitisgoodtositdownwiththe
peoplethatknowthesystemthebesttodiscusstheconceptualmodel,addressanyconcernstheymay
have,andconfirmthattheconceptualmodelactsconsistentlywiththeactualsystem.
Doingthishelpsensurethatthemodelsassumptionsareaccurate,itpromotesinteraction
betweenthosewhoareinvestedinthesimulationproject,andallowsthemodelertochangethemodel
withoutsignificantchangecostsdowntheroad.Thisstepshouldalwaystakeplacebeforeprogramming
themodel.
Programmingthemodel
Oncethemodelerhasconfirmedtheconceptualmodelreflectstheprocedureoftheactual
systemandallrelevantdatahasbeencollected,theconceptualmodelisreadytobeprogrammed.
ModelscaneitherbeprogrammedinageneralpurposeprogramminglanguagesuchasCorC++,or
usingacommercialsimulationsoftwarepackagesuchasArena,SIMUL8,orProModel.Forthepurposes
ofthismanual,ProModelwillbeusedtowhenbuildingacomputersimulation.SeethePromodel
Tutorialsectionforfurtherdetail.

37

ModelVerification/Validation
Themodelermustverifythatthesimulationmodelismimickingtheconceptualmodelandalso
thatthesimulationisactingastherealworldsystemdoes.Todothis,thesimulationisrunandresults
forthatrunaregathered.Themodelercomparestheresultsofthesimulationruntothedatathatwas
collectedwhenobservingthesystem.Forexample,ifthemodelerobservedthesystemfor5hoursand
sawathroughputof200units,thatiscomparedtotheresultsofthesimulationtoseeifthemodelis
runningastherealworldsystemdoes.Thisiscalledresultsvalidationandisthemostimportantmodel
validationtechniqueavailable.Iftheresultsvalidationissuccessful,thenitalsolendscredibilitytothe
simulationmodel.Ifthedataisnotabletobecomparedtothesystem,theresultsshouldbepresented
tothepeoplethatknowthesystembest.Iftheresultsareconsistentwithhowtheyperceivethesystem
shouldoperate,thenthesimulationmodelissaidtohavefacevalidity.Asensitivityanalysisalsoshould
beperformedonthesimulationmodeltoseewhichelementshavethebiggestimpactonthe
performancemetrics.Theseelementsmustbemodeledcarefully.
OutputAnalysis/Results
Oncethesimulationisverifiedtobeoperatingliketherealworldsystem,datafromthemodelis
credibleandcanbeusedtoanalyzethesystem.However,runningthesimulationforanarbitrarylength
oftimeisnotalwaysenoughtoprovidecredibledata.Analyzingcertainstatevariablesleadsto
calculationsofsimulationruntime,warmupperiod,andthenumberofreplicationsneeded.For
example,amanufacturingsystemmayrunfor80hoursaweek.However,whenthesimulationstarts,
theproductpipelineisempty.Thisrarelyhappensintheactualsystem.Awarmupperiodcanbeused
togetthesystemrunningbeforethe80hoursaweekinordertocollectmoreaccuratelongrundata.
Also,runningonereplicationofasimulationisnotasreliableasrunningmanyandusingtheaveragesof
thereplicationsoranalyzingeachreplicationindividually.Oncethesethreeelementsareestablished,
dataanalysiscanbeconductedtoseeifthereisastatisticallysignificantdifferencebetweenmeansofa
performancemetricthathasbeenchangedduetosomesystemchange.

38

ProModelTutorial
ProModelisadiscreteeventsimulationsoftwarethatallowstheusertocreateaworkingmodelofa
complexrealworldsystem.Bybuildingamodeltheusercanplan,analyze,andevenimprovehowthe
systemruns.ProModelgivesthemodelertheopportunitytoseehowtheirsystemrunsoveralong
periodoftimeinjustminutes.Themodelercantweakthesystemtoseehowsmallchangesaffect
importantmetrics,whichconfigurationsworkbest,andhelpthemodelerunderstandthe
interdependenciesofthesystem.
WhenyouopenPromodel,awindowappearstitled:TheProModelShortCutPanel.Ifyouarestartinga
newmodel,goaheadandexitoutofthismenu.YoushouldseeablankLayoutscreen.Nowitistimeto
startbuildingyourmodel.
Model1:MachineOperator
Amachineoperatorisrunningalatheonthefactoryfloor.Thelatheisresponsibleformanufacturing
bothProductAandProductB.ProductAarrivesatthelatheevery35minutesusinganexponential
distributionandProductBarrivesevery30minutesusingaNormaldistributionwithastandard
deviationof6minutes.ThelatheprocessesProductAusingauniformdistributionbetween8and12
minutesandProductBusingauniformdistributionbetween10and20minutes.Oncethelathe
operationiscomplete,bothProductsexitthesystem.Collectdataon1000hoursofmachineruntime.

Considerthefollowing:
1.Whatisthethroughputinthe1000hourrunperiod?
2.Howmuchtimedoeseachproducttypestayinthesystem?
3.Whatpercentageoftimedoeseachproductspendwaiting?Whatisthemaximumamountofproduct
waitingatanyonetime?
4.Doyounoticeanythinginterestingabouthowlongeachproductstaysinthesystemcomparedto
theirprocessingtimes?Whydoyouthinkthatis?
5.Doyouthinkthelathehasenoughcapacitytohandlethissystem?Whyorwhynot?
6.Howmuchtimeissavedbyaddinganotherlathe(lathecapacity=2)?Whatisthedifferencein
throughput,whyisthis?Doesitmakesincetoaddanotherlathe?

Beforeyoustartbuildingthemodelthefirstthingthatyoushoulddoistitleyoursimulation.Todothis,
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44

Considerthefollowing:(frompg.37)
1.Whatisthethroughputofbothproductsinthegiventime?
2.Howmuchtimedoeseachproducttypestayinthesystem?
3.Whatpercentageoftimedoeseachproductspendwaiting?Whatisthemaximumamountofproduct
waitingatanyonetime?
4.Donoticeanythinginterestingabouthowlongeachproductstaysinthesystemcomparedtotheir
processingtimes?Whydoyouthinkthatis?
5.Doyouthinkthelathehasenoughcapacitytohandlethissystem?Whyorwhynot?
6.Howmuchtimeissavedbyaddinganotherlathe(lathecapacity=2)?Whatisthedifferencein
throughput?Doesitmakesincetoaddanotherlathe?

45

Model2:Statfit
ReconsiderthesimulationfromModel1.Ongoingprocessimprovementandlinebalancing
haveresultedinchangestothelatheprocess.Aftercompletingatimestudy,thedatagathered
fromthesystemisasfollows:

Table3:DataMeasuredfromModel2System

TheinterarrivaltimeslistedapplytobothProductsA&B.Sincethisdataisanindicationhow
theprocessisnowrunning,itprovidesamoreaccuraterepresentationofwhatisactually
occurringinthesystem.
Sample
Number
LatheArrival
Interarrival
Times
LatheProcssing
TimesforProductA
LatheProcssing
TimesforProductB
1 30 10.4 16.7
2 41 13 19.3
3 20 12.8 19.1
4 23 9.8 16.1
5 29 10.1 16.4
6 22 11.3 15.1
7 30 9.5 15.8
8 31 13.1 19.4
9 23 12.6 14.3
10 20 8.9 13
11 22 10.3 14.4
12 21 9 13.1
13 20 11.9 16
14 34 10.2 14.3
15 27 8.5 12.6
16 21 9.9 14
17 23 12.3 16.4
18 25 8.7 12.8
19 33 11.4 12.8
20 27 12.1 19.4
21 25 11.7 19
22 20 11.1 18.4
23 22 11.3 14.9
24 52 9.7 17
25 24 10.3 17.6

46

Considerthefollowing:
1. Testthegivendataforindependence.
2. Fitthedatasetsintocontinuousdistributionstobeusedintheimprovedsimulation.
3. Iftheimprovementofthesystemcosts$15000tocompleteandprofitsof$10foreach
extraProductAproducedand$15forextraeachProductBproducedaregained,what
isthebreakevenpointforthesystem?Hint:Comparethroughputsforbothproductsfor
bothmodels.
ProModeloffersatoolcalledStat::Fitthatallowstheusertoautomaticallyanalyzedataand
attempttodetermineindependence,todeterminehomogeneity(thedatacamefromthesame
distribution),andtofitittothebestfittingdistribution.Clickonthetoolsmenuandselecting
Stat::Fit.
Startbyenteringintheinterarrivaltimestothelatheintherighthandfieldinthedatatable
window.ThedatasetscanalsobefoundintheIME342sharedfolderontheFdrive.Oncethe
dataisentered,testsforindependencecanbegin.
ThreetestsforindependencecanbedoneusingStat::Fitscatterplot,autocorrelationplot,and
arunstest.AllofthesetestscanbefoundinthestatisticsmenuunderIndependence.
ScatterPlotAscatterplotplotsdatapointsthatthatwerecollectedsequentially.Forexample,
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eitherapositiveoranegativecorrelationdependingontheslopeofthetrend.
Createascatterplotofthedataforinterarrivaltimes.Isthereatrend?
AutocorrelationPlotAnautocorrelationplotcalculatesameasureofautocorrelation,rho(),
whichusesthedistancebetweendatapoints,thesamplemean,andthestandarddeviation,
resultinginavaluebetween1and1.Sincecorrelateddatasetsaredependent,thecloserthat
thecorrelationvalueistoeitheroftheextremevalues,thelessindependentthedatais.Ifthe
valuesarearound0,thedatashowlittletonoautocorrelation.
Createanautocorrelationplotofthedataforinterarrivaltimes.Whataretheextremevalues?
Isthereautocorrelationinthisdataset?

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48

RepeatthisprocessforthedataontheprocessingtimeforbothProductsA&Batthelathe.

Considerthefollowing:(frompg.45)
1. Testthegivendataforindependence.
2. Fitthedatasetsintocontinuousdistributionstobeusedintheimprovedsimulation.
3. Iftheimprovementofthesystemcosts$15000tocompleteandprofitsof$10foreach
extraProductAproducedand$15forextraeachProductBproducedaregained,what
isthebreakevenpointforthesystem?Hint:Comparethroughputsforbothproductsfor
bothmodels.

Model3:FlowShop
Inaflowshop,bothproducts1and2,movefromalathe,toamill,andfinallyareinspectedat
aninspectionlocation.Bothproductsareextremelyheavyandrequireoneoftheshopstwo
forkliftstomovethemfromtheircurrentlocationtothenext.Ittakestheforklifts1minuteto
moveaproductfromalocationsqueuetothatlocationand2minutestomovefromalocation
toanotherlocationsqueue.Theproductsarriveevery18minutes,lognormallydistributedwith
astandarddeviationof5min.35%oftheproductscomingintothesystemareoftheProduct1
variety,and65%areProduct2.Eachproducttakesthefollowingtimesateachlocation:

Table4:DistributionDataforModel3locations

Considerthefollowing:
1. Whatistheshopsthroughput?
2. Whatistheaveragetimeforeachproductinthesystem(flowtime)?
3. Howmanyproductsareineachqueueonaverage?
4. Howdoestheflowtimeandaveragequeuecontentschangeifathirdforkliftisadded?Doyou
thinkthisinvestmentisworthit?
5. Isthereabottleneckinthesystem?Ifso,where?
6. Whathappenstoflowtimeifthemeanprocesstimeatthemillisreducedby1minforeach
typeofproduct(N(15,5)andN(12,2))?Note:makesurethattwoforkliftsarebeingused.
Location Product1(min) Product2(min)
Lathe U(8,2) U(10,5)
Mill N(16,5) N(13,2)
Inspection U(5,2) U(5,2)

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Table5:

Table6:

Table7:

Considert
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2. W
3. H
4. H
th
5. Is
6. W
ty

LocationSta
ResourceSt
EntityStatis
thefollowing
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ypeofproduc
atistics:
tatistics:
stics:
g:(frompg.47
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veragetimefo
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flowtimeand
stmentiswor
leneckinthe
stoflowtime
ct(N(15,5)a
7)
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uctinthesyst
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me)?
thirdforklifti
reducedby1
woforkliftsare

sadded?Do
1minforeac
ebeingused.
57
you
h

58

Model4:FlowShopContinued
ReconsidertheflowshopmadeinModel3.Yourbosswasimpressedwithyour
recommendationtoaddathirdforkliftandongoingprocessimprovementhasimprovedthe
millprocessbyloweringthemeanprocesstimebyoneminuteforbothproducts.

TheshopisconsideringaddingproductionofProductX.ProductXismadeoftwodifferentkinds
ofparts:5component1sand1component2.Bothofthesecomponentsrunthroughthelathe,
toanassemblylocation,throughtheinspectionlocation,andfinallyexitthesystem.Ifthisextra
productionisimplemented,theshopisaddingasecondlathe.Attheassemblylocation
components1and2arecombinedtogethertoformProductX.Component1arrivesatthelathe
everyL(6,1)minutesandcomponent2arriveseveryL(30,2)minutes.Bothcomponentsare
processedatthelatheforN(5,2)minutes,ittakesT(2,6,10)minutestoassembleproductX,and
productXisinspectedforU(2,1)minutes.Ittakes1minuteforeachcomponenttomoveto
eachlocation(excludingqueuestotheirlocations),forkliftsarenotrequiredtomoveanyof
thesecomponents.Theshopsgoalistomake2000ProductXsinthe1000hoursofproduction
andonlyordered10000conponent1sand2000component2s.

Considerthefollowing:
1. CantheshopmeetitsthroughputgoalsforProductX?
2. DoestheproductionofProductXaffectthethroughputofProducts1and2foundin
Model3?
3. Buyingofthethirdforkliftcoststheshop$5000.Iftheshopgains$20profitfromeach
additionalProductXproducedand$10profitfromeveryadditionalProduct1or2,how
longwillittakeforthelathetopayforitself?Hint:runthemodelwith2&3forklifts
andcomparethroughputs.

OpenyourModel3simulation,renameitModel4inthegeneralinformationwindow,andsave
themodelasModel4(usingsaveasinthefiletab).Note:MakesurenottosaveoverModel3.

Locations
Startbyaddinganadditionallocationcalledassembly.Giveitacapacityofinf.Totrackhow
manycomponentsareinthislocationatanyonetime,youcanaddacountertothislocation.
Uncheckthenewcheckboxinthegraphicsscreenandclickonthe00button.Click
anywherenearyourassemblylocationtoaddthecounter.Youcanedittheappearanceofyour
counterbyrightclickingit.

Sinceanewlatheisbeingpurchased,changethecapacityofthelathelocationto2.

59

Entities
Createentitiescalledcomponent1,subassembly1(assemblingall5component1sintoone
entity),component2,andProductXbyselectinggraphicstorepresentthem.

Arrivals
Components1and2botharriveatthelathequeueatarateofL(6,1)minutesandL(30,2)
minutesrespectively.Sincetheshoponlyordered10000component1sand2000
components2sthearrivalsaresettooccur10000and2000timesrespectively.

Processing
Bothcomponent1and2needtoberoutedintothelathequeue,throughthelathe(N(5,2)),
andtotheassemblylocation.Note:Remembertoaddmovefor1mininthemovelogicfrom
thelathetoassembly.

Attheassemblylocation5component1smustbeassembledasoneentity(subassembly1).
Thereareafewcommandsthatcanaccomplishthis:group,combine,orload.Thesecommands
allgroupentitiestogether.
Grouptemporarilyconsolidatesaspecifiedamountofentitiesintoasingleentitywhich
canlaterbeungrouped(usingtheungroupcommand)
Combineaccumulatesandconsolidatesaspecifiedamountofentitiesintoasingle
entity
Loadtemporarilyattachesaspecifiedquantityofentitiestoagivenentitywhichmay
belaterunloaded.
Oncethe5component1sneverhavetocomeapartaftertheyareassembled,usethecombine
command.Intheoperationfieldoftheprocessingforcomponent1atassembly,typecombine
5assubassembly1.Sincecombiningtheseentitieschangestheentitytypebeforeitexitsthe
location,theroutingwindowstaysblankforComponent1atassembly.

ForComponent2atassembly,itislookingtobeassembledwithsubassembly1.However,
sometimesacomponent2arrivesatassemblybeforethereisasubassembly1readytobe
assembled.Becauseofthisfact,theassemblyofcomponent2withsubassembly1canbedone
intwostepsusingthejoinroutingrule.Theprocessingandroutingofcomponent2at
assemblyshouldlooklikethefigureonthefollowingpage:

Figure22

Thisproc
entityca

Nowthat
needsto
likethef
Figure23

Nowthat
mintod
subassem
ProductX

Finishthe
thesyste
Figure
:JoinRouting
cessingandr
llsforcomp
tcomponen
callcompon
following:
:JoinReques
talloftheco
denotethet
mbly1atthe
Xisroutedto
eprocessing
em.Yourfull
24:Processin
gRuleforCo
routinglogic
onent2tobe
t2iswaiting
nent2tojoin
stofSubasem
omponents
timeittakes
assemblylo
otheinspect
gforProduct
processing
ngandRoutin
mponent2a
cmeansthat
ejoinedwit
gforanentit
nit.Forsuba
mbly1atAsse
ofProductX
toassemble
ocationisPro
tionqueue,
tXattheins
logicandro
ngLogicforM
tAssembly
tcomponen
hit.
tytojoinwit
assembly1a
embly
Xareassemb
eProductX.A
oductX.Sinc
taking1min
pectionque
utingshould
Model4
t2waitsata
th,theproce
tassembly,
bledasonee
Alsonoticet
cetheprodu
nutetomov
eue,theinsp
dlookliketh
assemblyun
essingforsu
theprocess
entity,usew
thattheout
uctisfullyas
vethere.
pectionlocat
hefollowing
ntilanother
ubassembly1
ingshouldlo
waitT(2,6,10
tputfor
ssembled,
tion,andexi
:Figure26
60
1
ook
0)
ting

61

GlobalVariables
Oneelementofsimulationthathasntbeentouchedinthefirsttwomodels,areglobal
variables.Globalvariablesareplaceholdersdefinedbytheusertorepresentchangingnumeric
values.Inthismodelweareconcernedwiththethroughputofallofthedifferentkindsof
productsinthesystem,thesizeofthequeues,andtheWIP(workinprocess)

Tomakeaglobalvariable,openthebuildmenuandselectVariables(global).Titleyourfirst
globalvariablethroughputX,whichwilltrackthethroughputofProductX.Next,leftclick
somewhereinthelayoutwindowtoplacethecounterforthisvariable.

Youcanlabelthiscounterbyselectingbackgroundgraphics,thenbehindgridfromthe
buildmenu.Inthebackgroundgraphicsscreen,clicktheAbuttoninthemenuontheleft
handside.Clicknearthecounterthatyoumadeandlabelit.

Nowthatthecounterissetupandlabeled,youhavetotellProModelwhentochangethe
valueoftheglobalvariable.Gotoyourprocessinglogic.ThethroughputofProductXgoesupby
oneeachtimeaproductexitsthesystem.InthemovelogicfieldforProductXatassembly,type
incthroughputX.ThismeansthateverytimeaProductXexitsthesystem,thecounterfor
globalvariablethroughputXincreasesby1.Theincthroughputcommandcanalsobe
writtenasthroughputX=throughputX+1.Thisnotationisusefulifyouwishtoincreasea
globalvariablebymorethan1.

Repeatthisprocessforthethroughputoftheentityproduct.

Anothermetricthatshouldbeconsideredisthelengthofeachqueue.Themoreentitiesthat
areinthequeue,thelongereachentityhastowait.Bymakingaglobalvariablethatcountsthe
contentsinaqueue,thelengthofthatqueuecanbemonitored.Eachtimeanentityentersthe
queue,theglobalvariableisincreasedby1.Eachtimeanentityexitsaqueue,thevariableis
decreasedby1(dec(globalvariablename)or(globalvariablename)=(globalvariable
name)1).Remembertodothisforalldifferententitiesenteringandexitingthequeue.
AlsotrytomeasuretheWIP(workinprogress,seetheperformancemetricssection).Hint:Each
timeagivenentityenterthesystem,inc(globalvariablename),andeachtimethatentity
exits,dec(globalvariablename).
Model4isnowfinished.Runitthroughtracetoverifythemodelisrunningasitshould.Run
themodelfor1000hoursandrecordtheresults.

62

Considerthefollowing:(frompg.57)
1. CantheshopmeetitsthroughputgoalsforProductX?
2. DoestheproductionofProductXaffectthethroughputofProducts1and2foundin
Model3?
3. Buyingofthethirdforkliftcoststheshop$5000.Iftheshopgains$20profitfromeach
additionalProductXproducedand$10profitfromeveryadditionalProduct1or2,how
longwillittakeforthelathetopayforitself(paybackperiod)?Hint:runthemodelwith
2&3forkliftsandcomparethroughputs.

OutputAnalysis
Fortheexamplesthathavebeenusedinthismanual,weassumethatthefactorymodelcanrun
forhourswithoutstopping.Thisassumptionisokayforthistypeofmodelbecauseeachday,factories
startwheretheyleftoffthedaybefore.However,somesimulationscannotbedoneinthismanner
becauseentitiescannotstayinthesystemduringdowntime,anyfastfoodrestaurantforexample
cannothavecustomerswaitinginlineovernightbecausethestoreclosed.
Sinceinthisexamplethestoreisonlyopenforafewhours,itdoesnotadequatelysimulatelong
termbehavior.Becauseofthisfact,simulationsareoftenrunovermanyreplications.Eachreplicationis
runwithdifferentsetsofrandomnumbers,thusdifferentoutputsareproduced.Thisgivesthemodeler
achancetoseethevariabilityofthemodelandgivesthemtheinformationtoconstructaconfidence
interval.Thenumberofreplicationstoberundependsonthedesiredwidthofyourconfidenceinterval.
Theconfidenceintervaliscalculatedusinghalfwidthof(hw)asseenbelow:
X

-bw X

+bw
bw =
_t
n-1,
o
2
_S
n
,whereS=samplestandarddeviation
Thetightertheneedfortheconfidenceinterval,themorereplicationsareneeded.
Forterminatingsimulationslikethisexample,themanyreplicationsproducemanyperiodsat
thebeginningofthesimulationwherethesimulationisjustgettingwarmedup.Thisperiodisnot
representativeoflongtermsystembehavior.Simulationshandlerthisperiodbyusingitasawarmup
period.Awarmupperiodisablockoftimewherethesimulationisrunning,howeverthestatisticsare
notbeingtaken.Thisallowsthesystemtoloadupwithentitiesuntillongtermsystembehaviorhas
beenreached.Buthowdoyoudeterminehowlongthewarmupperiodshouldbe?

Byusingt
seewhen

Oncethe
simulation
OutputAn
Consider
manager
isinterest
cost.A95
Usingast
valueass

Usingthe
isapproac

thedynamicp
thesystems
numberofre
noptions,the
nalysisExamp
aninspection
isinterested
tedinseeing
5%confidence
tartingpointo
seenbelow.
performance
chedatabout
plottoolinth
startsbehavin
eplicationsan
esimulations
ple:
ntablethatha
inseeinghow
howmanyse
eintervalwit
of100replica
b
emetricofin
t200minute
F
hesimulation
ngasitdoeso
ndwarmupp
canberunto
asmanypart
wlongonave
erversarenee
hahalfwidth
ations,wesee
bw =
1.6S
spectionutili
s.Thiswillbe
Figure25:Wa
runscreena
overthelong
eriodhavebe
ocomparealt
sarrivingatit
erageeachpa
eded,betwee
hof1isneed
ethatthehal
S8 S.42S
1uu
zationpercen
ethewarmup
armupperiod
ndusingkey
run.
eendetermin
ternatives.Ex
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dedforevalua
fwidthis.89
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ntage,wesee
ptimeforthe
dAnalysis
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xaminethefo
ttheday.The
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63
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analysisis

Justfrom
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64
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or6
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ve

66

Asyoucansee,outputanalysisisbothanartandascience.Thereisnoonewaytofindasolution.By
consideringalloutputdataandnotjustfocusingonacertainsubset,onecanmakeaninformeddecision
astowhatthebestoptioniscurrentlyandwhichoptiongivesyouthebestflexibilityifcertaininputsto
thesystemhappentochange.

67

AppendixA:PseudoRandomNumberGeneration
Indiscreteeventsimulationsomeeventsarestochastic(random)innature.Thinkofaconveyor
beltthatrunsataconstantspeedbringingaproducttoamachinewithaconstantservicetime.Ina
perfectworld,everyproductshouldtaketheexactsametimetobetransportedandserviced.However,
peoplearenotrobots,machinesbreakdown,servicerequestsoccurrandomly,andsoon.Itisbecause
ofthisstochasticelementthatdatamustbefittoaprobabilitydistribution,ratherthanoccuratexact
ratesoftime.
Anattractivefeatureofdiscreteeventsimulationusingsoftware,isthatthesestochasticevents
canbeaccommodatedwithlittleincreaseincomplexityatthecomputationallevel.Inorderto
determinewhereinaprobabilitydistributionthenexteventwilloccur,arandomnumbergeneratoris
used.
Theidealrandomnumbergeneratorproducesanumberbetween0.0<x<1.0whereeachvalue
isequallylikelytooccur.Inotherwords,theidealrandomnumbergeneratorusesauniformdistribution
between0and1.Italsodoessowithreplacement.Thismeansthatwhenanumberisgenerated,itis
stillequallypossiblethatthenextnumbergeneratedisthatsameasthefirst.Ageneratorthatdoesso
withoutreplacementcannotgeneratethesamenumbertwiceuntilallpossiblenumbershavebeen
generated.Agoodrandomnumbergeneratorshouldsatisfythefollowingcriteria:
Randomnessproducesanoutputthatpassesstatisticaltestsforrandomness
Controllabilityabilitytoreproduceitsoutput
Efficiencyabilitytoproduceaseriesofrandomnumbersquickly
Universalityabilitytoproducethesameresultonawidevarietyofcomputersystems
Therearemanydifferenttypesofrandomnumbergeneratorssuchastablelookupgenerators,
hardwaregenerators,andalgorithmicgenerators.Howeveronlyone,algorithmicgenerators,satisfiesall
theabovecriteria.Becausetheresultsofanalgorithmicgeneratorcanberecreatedusingthesame
inputs,itsresultsarecalledPseudoRandomNumbers.

LinearCongruentialGenerators:LehmersAlgorithm
Mostsimulationsoftwarebasetheirrandomnumbergenerationonlinearcongruential
generators.Itisdefinedintermsofthefollowingequationwithfixedparametersa,c,andm:
Z
i
=(aZ
i1
+c)modm
modulusm,usuallyalargeprimeinteger
amultipliera,afixedintegersmallerthanm
aconstant,c
TheinitialseedZ
0
ischosenfromasetofnumbersrangingfrom1tom1.Theresult,Z
i
,is
thendividedbymtoobtainavalueintheuniformdistributionbetween0.0and1.0.
LehmersAlgorithmisaspeciallinearcongruentialgeneratorinwhichc=0.

Th
aZ
i1
+c,is
between
Example
Consider
20.Gener
elements

Le
probabilit
bythetab
between
abletoac
m
a
c
hemodulusf
sdividedbyt
0.0<x<1.0w
A1
asimpleATM
ratethefirst1
:

etsexamine
tydistribution
blebelow,the
{0,1}asbefor
chievediffere
m= 13
a= 6
c= 3
0
1
2
0
function(mod
hesecond,m
whichcorresp
Mexamplewh
10servicetim

Figur
theATMexa
nwithamean
elinearcongr
re.However,
ntresults.
3
6
3
5 1
d)displaysthe
m.Whenther
pondstowhe
heretheservi
mesusingalin
TableA1:F
reA1:Unifor
mpleagain,e
nof10minut
ruentialgene
duetothesh
i aZ
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10 15
eremainderw
remainderisd
ereinapartic
icetimefollow
nearcongrue
irstTenRan

rmProbability
exceptthistim
tesandastan
ratorgenerat
hapeoftheno
Zi1 +c
21
51
75
63
69
27
9
57
33
45
20
whenthefirs
dividedbym,
culardistribut
wsauniform
ntialgenerat
ndomNumb
yDistribution
metheservic
ndarddeviatio
tedthesame
ormallydistri
Zi U{0
3
8 0.6
12 0.9
10 0.7
11 0.8
4 0.3
1 0.0
9 0.6
5 0.3
7 0.5
6 0.4
25
stargument,i
,itproduces
tiontherando
mdistribution
orwiththefo
bers
n
etimetakes
onof5minut
etenrandom
ibutedservice
0,1} U{0,2
62 12.31
92 18.46
77 15.38
85 16.92
31 6.15
08 1.54
69 13.85
38 7.69
54 10.77
46 9.23
inthiscase
anumber
omnumberl
rangingfrom
ollowing
onanormal
tes.Asyouca
numbers
etime,wear
0}
1
6
8
2
5
4
5
9
7
3
68

ies.
m0to
ansee
re

69

Tofindwhereouroutputslieinanormalprobabilitydistribution,weneedtousetheztestequation.
Lookingonaztable,findthezvaluethatcorrespondstoyouroutputvalue.Iftheoutputliesbetween
twovaluesonthetable,interpolationmustbeused.Forexample,theoutputof.62hasazvalueof
.3007.Usingthefollowingequation=
X

-0
c
,wefindthatX

= 11.Sasshownonthegraphbelow.

Z =
X

-
0
c
. Suu7 =
X

- 10
5
X

= 11.S

TableA2:FirstTenRandomNumbers FigureA2:NormalProbability
Distribution

Asyoucansee,becausetheshapesofthetwoprobabilitydistributionsdiffer,sodotheoutputs.The
resultobtainedfromtheuniformdistribution(12.31)issignificantlydifferentthantheresultobtained
fromthenormalprobabilitydistribution(11.5).

i aZi1+c Z U{0,1} N(10,5)
0 3 0.23 6.3
1 21 8 0.62 11.5
2 51 12 0.92 17.0
3 75 10 0.77 13.5
4 63 11 0.85 15.0
5 69 4 0.31 7.5
6 27 1 0.08 3.0
7 9 9 0.69 12.5
8 57 5 0.38 11.5
9 33 7 0.54 10.5
10 45 6 0.46 9.5
m= 13
a= 6
c= 3
0
X
11.5
0.62
10
Normal Distribution

70

AppendixB:QueuingTheory

OperationsResearch(OR)techniquescanalsobeusedtoapproximateperformancemetrics.Ifthe
systemissimpleenough,asimulationmaynotbenecessarytoevenmake.Usingtechniquessuchas
queuingtheorymaybeanoptionaftergatheringdatafromthesystem.Aqueuingsystemisdescribed
asasystemwhereacustomerentersthesystemandjoinsaqueue.Atcertaintimes,amemberofthe
queueisselectedtoreceiveaservicebysomerule,knownasaqueuediscipline.Theserviceis
performedbyaserverorservicemechanism,afterwhich,thecustomerleavesthesystem.Queuing
theoryusessimilardatatosimulationlikeinterarrivaltimedata(lamdaor)andservicetimedata(mu
or)todeterminesystemmetricssuchasthefollowing:
L=Expectednumberofentitiesinthesystem
L
q
=Expectednumberofentitiesinthequeue
W=Expectedtotaltimeinthesystem
W
q
=Expectedwaittimeinthequeue
P=Probabilitythataspecifiednumber,n,entitiesareinthesystem

Anothermetricthatcanbecalculatedusing/,isthetrafficintensityfactor(rhoor).
Therearedifferentwaysofclassifyingqueuingtheorymodels.Perhapsthemostcommonmodelisthe
M/M/1model.Thisnotationstandsforinterarrivaldistributiontype/servicedistributiontype/number
ofservers.TheMnotationstandsforaMarkovianorexponentialdistribution.OthernotationsareG
forgeneraldistributionsorDfordeterministicdistributions.UsinganM/M/1modelrequiresdata
withanexponentialdistributionandonlyoneserverinthesystem.Ifthisisthecase,aswellasaFIFO
queuingdiscipline,theseequationscanbeusedtoestimatekeymetrics:
I =
\
-\
L
q
= I - =
p
2
1-p

W =
1
-\
W
q
=
\
(-\)

P
n
= (1 -)
n
n=0,1,2
Littleslawcanbeusedifsomemetricsareknown.ThefollowingequationisLittleslaw:
I = worI
q
= w
q

71

ExampleB1:
Supposepartsarriveatamillingmachineevery12minutes,exponentiallydistributed.Thepartsare
processedatameantimeof10minutes,exponentiallydistributed.Whatistheexpectednumberof
customersthesystemandinthequeue?Whatistheexpectedwaitingtimeforcustomers,bothtotal
timeandinthequeue?Whatistheprobabilitythattherewillbeexactly4customersinthesystem?
=
60
12
= S paitshoui =
60
10
= 6 paitshoui =
5
6
= .8SS

I =

-
=
S
6 -S
= S customeis
L
q
=

2
1 -
=
. 8SS
2
1 -.8SS
= 4.1SS customeis

UsingLittlesLaw:
W =
L

=
S
S
= 1 houi
W
q
=
L
q

=
4.1SS
S
= .8S1 houis

Theprobabilitythat4customersareinthesystemis:
P
4
= (1 -.8SS). 8SS
4
= .u8u oi 8%

Append

Exponent
ProModel

Lognorma
ProModel

dixC:Cont
ial
Inputformat:E
al
Inputformat:L
tinuousPro
E(a),a=mean
L(a,b),a=mean
obabilityD
nb=standardde
DensityFun
eviation
nctions(P

DFs)
72

Normal
ProModel

Uniform
ProModel

Inputformat:N
Inputformat:
N(a,b),a=mean
U(a,b),a=mea
nb=standardd
nb=halfrange
deviation
e

73

74

OtherDistributionsandTheirInputFormats:
Beta B(a,b,c,d),a=shapevalue1b=shapevalue2c=lowerlimitd=upperlimit
Binomial BI(a,b),a=batchsizeb=probabilityofsuccess
Erlang ER(a,b),a=meanvalueb=parameter
Gamma G(a,b),a=shapevalueb=scalevalue
Geometric GEO(a),a=probabilityofsuccess
InverseGaussian IG(a,b),a=shapevalueb=scalevalue
Pearson5 P5(a,b),a=shapevalueb=scalevalue
Pearson6 P6(a,b,c),a=shapevalue1b=shapevalue2c=scalevalue
Poisson P(a),a=quantity
Triangular T(a,b,c),a=minimumb=modec=maximum
Weibull W(a,b),a=shapevalueb=scalevalue

75

AppendixD:UsefulProModelProcessandRoutingStatements

AccumKeepsentitiesatacertainlocationuntilthespecifiedquantityofentitiesareaccumulated.
CombineConsolidatesthespecifiednumberofentitiesintoasingleentity.
CreateCreatesthespecifiednumberofentitiesinadditiontotheoriginalentity.Thesecreatedentities
sharetheattributevaluesassociatedwiththeoriginalentity.
DecDecreasethevalueofavariable,attributeorarrayvalueby1.
DountilRepeatsaprocessuntilaspecifiedconditionbecometrue.
DowhileRepeatsaprocesswhileaspecifiedconditionremainstrue.
FreeReleasesthespecifiedresourcefromthecurrententity.
GetBringsthespecifiedresourcetothecurrententitywhenthatresourcebecomesavailable.
GroupTemporarilycombinesaspecifiednumberofentitiesintoasingleentitywhichcanlaterbe
brokenapartbyuseoftheUngroupstatement.
IncIncreasethevalueofavariable,attributeorarrayvalueby1.
JoinJoinsaspecifiedquantityofgivenentitytothecurrententity.
LoadAttachesaspecifiedquantityofentitiestothecurrententitywhichcanbedetachedusingthe
Unloadstatement.
MatchThecurrententitywaitsatalocationuntilanattributevalueofthecurrententitymatchesan
attributevalueofanotherentitywithacorrespondingmatchstatement.
OrderCausesaspecifiedquantityofentitiestobecreatedinthesystemataspecifiedlocation.
RouteRoutesthecurrententitytoaspecifiedroutingblock.
SendSendsaspecifiedquantityofentitiestoacertainlocation.
SplitSplitsupthecurrententityintoaspecifiedquantityofentities
WaitCausesthecurrententitytobedelayedatthecurrentlocationforaspecifiedamountoftime.
WaituntilDelaysthecurrententityatalocationuntilaconditionbecomestrue.

Append

Model1:

Model2:
dixE:Outp putofMod dels14

76

Model3:

77

Model4:

78

79

80