October 3, 2014

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Our Valuation WARNING is OFF: Valuation is now well within "normal"
range. Overvalued stocks now make u !".#$% o& our stocks assigned a
valuation and "$.'$% o& those e(uities are calculated to )e overvalued )*
+,% or more. -en sectors are calculated to )e overvalued.

MARKET OVERVIEW
Inde. /tarted week Frida* 01 2hange 2hange % *td
34IA %&%'&"() %&''' 5",'.67 5,.6#% +.!!%
NA/3A8 **(+",* **,-"*- "6.!9 ,.#'% '.#+%
R://;<< +,,, %%%'"*. %%',"-) 5+."$ 5,."7% 5$.'6%
/=0 !,, %)&,")( %)(,"'. 5",.7# 5,.!!% 6.$'%
/ummar* o& V; /tock :niverse
/tocks :ndervalued $9.66%
/tocks Overvalued !".#$%
/tocks :ndervalued )* +,% "$.'"%
/tocks Overvalued )* +,% "$.'$%
SECTOR OVERVIEW
/ector 2hange 1-3 >-3 Valuation <ast "+51
Return
0?;
Ratio
Aerosace -'"-+/ --"*./ -."&+/ ."+./ overvalued %,"+,/ %)"(-
Auto5-ires5-rucks '"-(/ --"*,/ -*"'*/ -",'/ undervalued '".-/ %+"+*
@asic 1aterials -'",,/ -%"&,/ --")%/ %-"&%/ undervalued -*"*,/ -+"'-
@usiness /ervices '"&-/ -'"(*/ --"'-/ '"%%/ undervalued %*"-,/ -."&+
2omuter and -echnolog* '"*-/ -%"%,/ %"+'/ +"-)/ overvalued ("'+/ .'"'.
2onstruction -'"+%/ -%"')/ -*"''/ ."&)/ undervalued +"%(/ -*"'+
2onsumer 3iscretionar* '".+/ -'")-/ -+"&-/ '")*/ overvalued -".*/ -("&-
2onsumer /tales '"+'/ -'"+)/ '"''/ )"&,/ overvalued )"*-/ -."&*
Finance '"%./ -'"('/ %"-&/ ."-'/ overvalued +"-./ %&"%(
Industrial 0roducts '"'-/ -%".'/ -+"+)/ -"-&/ undervalued +",)/ --"')
1edical '"&+/ -'".'/ &"((/ *")'/ overvalued %%"()/ -)"*-
1ulti5/ector 2onglomerates -'"('/ -%"('/ -%")%/ +"*)/ overvalued +"',/ -'"(-
Oils5;nerg* -'")%/ --"&./ *"+*/ '",+/ undervalued +")-/ -+",%
Retail5Wholesale '"))/ -'"-&/ -&"('/ -"((/ overvalued --"&*/ -.".%
-ransortation '"-,/ -%"&(/ .".)/ -"+&/ overvalued %'"%(/ %,"&.
:tilities '".,/ -'"(./ *"%)/ -"'./ overvalued ("+*/ %)".&
ValuEngine e!"letter" #ate"t Re"ult"
V; Newsletter 2urrent 1onth -otal /=0 !,, <ast 1onth -otal /=0 !,, /ince
Incetion
/=0
!,,
Forecast 1N/ #.#+ 5".7" 5,.6+ ,.6# 9,.!+ ""'."7
3ividend /tock 5".7, 5+.$" 5$.'" 5,."9 "7.7! +9.$'
/mall 2a /tock 5!.$, 5#.+$ 5+.#6 ".+! +7.69 $!.,#
View 5!.+, 5+.6$ 5,.!# ,.99 "+7."" '6.!+
Sector Tal$%Tran"&ortation
Below, we present the latest data on leading Transportation Sector stocks from
our Institutional software package (VEI. These results were filtered by market price
and volume--no results below 3$share or less than !""k sharesday volume.
-o5Five -ransortation /ector /tocks55/hort5-erm Forecast Returns
-icker Name 1kt 0rice ValuationA%B <ast "+51
RetnA%B
-RN T0I1IT2 I134 I1 *%"+. -+"*( ,'"%
-NC TEE562 T615E04 ."+* -*+"'+ .-"+,
3D- 37T 7893I1:4 (".. --*"+% *%"-)
A<C 696456 6I0 :0; *-")- -("(- .-"-&
A< 6I0 9E64E <80; .-"*, -%*"&% %.")-
-o5Five -ransortation /ector /tocks55<ong5-erm Forecast Returns
-icker Name 1kt 0rice ValuationA%B <ast "+51
RetnA%B
-RN T0I1IT2 I134 I1 *%"+. -+"*( ,'"%
-NC TEE562 T615E04 ."+* -*+"'+ .-"+,
3D- 37T 7893I1:4 (".. --*"+% *%"-)
A<C 696456 6I0 :0; *-")- -("(- .-"-&
A< 6I0 9E64E <80; .-"*, -%*"&% %.")-
-o5Five -ransortation /ector /tocks552omosite /core
-icker Name 1kt 0rice ValuationA%B <ast "+51
RetnA%B
-RN T0I1IT2 I134 I1 *%"+. -+"*( ,'"%
A<C 696456 6I0 :0; *-")- -("(- .-"-&
G1- :6T= <80; +,"+. -,")) -."(%
A< 6I0 9E64E <80; .-"*, -%*"&% %.")-
3A< 3E9T6 6I0 9I1E4 .+"-, ("&% *+"*,
-o5Five -ransortation /ector /tocks551ost Overvalued
-icker Name 1kt 0rice ValuationA%B <ast "+51
RetnA%B
>R2W 20< W8093W3 I1< %)"+- .'' %'"+.
E0O =;8 98:I4TI<4 .&"*- )%"(, ()")*
DA 76W6II61 793:4 %."., **"() &,"*
-C TEE562 <80; ((",( **"(( +)"-&
:A< >1ITE3 <81T 793 *("%. *."-% *)"%*
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#$ $%&I'()I$#, *+ ,(-
F.EE ).I(&/
-o /ign : &or a
FR;; -RIA<F
0lease 2lick
D;R;
'ree (o!nloa) *or Rea)er"
(s a 0onus to our Free Weekly #ewsletter su0scri0ers, we are offering a F.EE
,$W#&$(, of one of our Stock .eports
#hatham $odging Trust %#$&T' is a self-advised hotel ()*T, formed to invest in
premium-branded upscale e+tended-stay and select-service hotels. #hatham
$odging Trust e+pects that a significant portion of its portfolio will consist of hotels in
the upscale e+tended-stay market, including brands such as (esidence *nn by
,arriott, -omewood Suites by -ilton and Summerfield Suites by -yatt. *t also intends
to invest in premium-branded select-service hotels such as #ourtyard by ,arriott,
-ampton *nn and -ampton *nn and Suites.
.alu)ngine updated its recommendation from B/0 to ST(123 B/0 for #hatham
$odging Trust on 4"!5-!"-"4. Based on the information we have gathered and our
resulting research, we feel that #hatham $odging Trust has the probability to
1/T6)(71(, average market performance for the ne+t year. The company e+hibits
8TT(8#T*.) 6) (atio and ,omentum.
(s a 0onus to our #ewsletter readers,
we are offering a F.EE ,$W#&$(, of one of our Stock .eports
.ead our 1omplete ,etailed Valuation .eport on 1hatham &odging )rust D;R;.
W+at," -ot
O.erall Mar$et Valuation o! /or0al1
.alu)ngine tracks more than 9""" /S e:uities, 8&(s, and foreign stock which
trade on /S e+changes as well as ;!""" #anadian e:uities. <hen )6S estimates are
available for a given e:uity, our model calculates a level of mispricing or valuation
percentage for that e:uity based on earnings estimates and what the stock should
be worth if the market were totally rational and efficient--an academic e+ercise to be
sure, but one which allows for useful comparisons between e:uities, sectors, and
industries. /sing our .aluation ,odel, we can currently assign a .) valuation
calculation to more than 4="" stocks in our /S /niverse.
<e combine all of the e:uities with a valuation calculation to track market
valuation figures and use them as a metric for making calls about the overall state of
the market. Two factors can lower these figures-- a market pullback, or a significant
rise in )6S estimates. <henever we see overvaluation levels in e+cess of ; >?@ for the
overall universe andor 49@ for the overvalued by 4"@ or more categories, we issue a
valuation warning.
<e issued our last valuation warning on 8ugust !A, 4"!5. 8t that time, the SB6
was at !A9!.95. 6rior to that warning, we had essentially operated under an
overvalued market environment with a .aluation <arning or <atch in effect since
,ay, 4"!3. <ednesdayCs market pull back-- combined with changes in earnings and
stock prices-- have resulted in figures that are now the lowest recorded since Danuary,
4"!3.
*n addition to the overall valuation metrics, we see that on a sector basis the
declines in overvaluation have also relieved some pressure. Ten of si+teen sectors
remain overvalued and none are calculated to be overvalued by double digits. This is
:uite different from the situation over the past few months.
<ith these sorts of numbers, we find ourselves back in EnormalE range from a
valuation perspective. <hile the market may decline further, those investors looking
for a EBuyE signal may certainly find one from the perspective of our valuation model.
1n the other hand, this rally has been unstoppable for most of the 1bama
8dministration. Some analysts say we are due for a pullback.
-owever, we do not believe that )bola will pose a problem for the /S. <e do
not believe that the 7ederal (eserve is going to hastily pull back from their current
policies--which have provided the market so much succor. 2or do we find a negative
economic environment within the /S--with the e+ception of the lagging labor market
and the failure of the recovery to really take off for workers. 1f course, we !ust ha"
so#e very positive news about the $% labor situation with the une#ploy#ent rate
slipping below &' for the first ti#e since (uly )**+,
*n the recent past, the market has shaken off these sorts of setbacks. <e would
e+pect that trend to continue. *ndeed, today we see a massive up day. So, this
momentary respite from high valuations may be a time to reinforce e+isting positions
or make purchases of stocks which up until now had been overheated from a
valuation perspective.
%ubscribers -et .$LL /CCE%% to our 0arket an" %ector 1verviews
The chart below tracks the valuation metrics from Danuary 4"!3. *t shows
overvaluation levels in e+cess of ?"@. <e issue a .aluation <atch when the metric
e+ceeds >"@ and a .aluation <arning when the metric e+ceeds >?@.

Sutt0eier Sa2"
""1ommentary and (nalysis from 1hief Market Strategist
.ichard Suttmeier
If you have any co##ents or 2uestions, sen" the# to
Rsutt#eier3-#ail,co#
4reasury 5iel"s
!"-0ear--%4.53=' 8 :uarterly value level is 3.4?= with daily, weekly and, monthly pivots
at 4.5!3, 4.555, 4.55= and annual and semiannual risky levels at 4.4>3, !.AAA and !.99A.
3"-0ear Bond F %3.!59' 8nnual and :uarterly value levels are 3.4=3 and 3.A>3 with
annual, weekly, daily, monthly and semiannual pivots at 3.!"9, 3.!53, 3."AA, 3."=A and
3."=4.
Co##o"ities an" .ore6
#ome+ 3old F%$!4!5.>' 8 :uarterly value level is $A">.53 with a daily pivot at $!4!9.3,
and weekly, monthly, semiannual and annual risky levels at $!449.5, $!3"?.4, $!>!3.",
$!93=.9 and $!959.5.
2yme+ #rude 1il F %$A!.34' <eekly and daily pivots are $A!.!5 and $A3.?" with
monthly, :uarterly, semiannual, annual and :uarterly risky levels at $!""."9, $!"4.>>,
$!">.5= and $!"9.?4.
The )uro F %!.4>>9' 8 semiannual value level is !.44"3 with daily and weekly pivots at
!.4?59 and !.4>5! and monthly, annual and :uarterly risky levels at !.33"A, !.33=4 and
!.3>"3.
0a!or In"ices
&aily &ow-- %!>="!' Semiannual and annual value levels are !>3!", !5=3?
and !35>9 with a daily pivot at !>9A3, the Sept. !A all-time intraday high at
!93?".>5 and weekly, monthly, :uarterly and semiannual risky levels at
!95A?, !999A, !="5? and !=??4.
SB6 ?"" F %!A5>.4' Semiannual and annual value levels are !9=A.3, !?3A.!
and !554.! with a daily pivot at !A53.5, the Sept. !A all-time intraday high at
4"!A.4>, and weekly, monthly, :uarterly and semiannual risky levels at
4"5!.", 4"9A.4, 4"A5.4 and 4"=".3.
28S&8G F %553"' Semiannual and annual value levels are 55"!, 3A94, 359!
and 3">3 with a daily pivot at 5533, the Sept. !A multiyear intraday high at
5>!".?9 and monthly, semiannual, weekly and :uarterly risky levels at 5>"A,
5>54, 5>A5 and 59!3.
28S&8G !"" %2&H' F %3A=>' Guarterly, semiannual and annual value levels
are 3?!?, 3"9= and 4>>A with daily and :uarterly pivots at 3AA> and 5"53, a
semiannual risky level at 5!"?, the Sept. !A multiyear intraday high at
5!!=.A!, and monthly and weekly risky levels at 5!?4 and 54"3.
&ow Transports F %=3">' Semiannual and annual value levels are 9543, >45A
and ?A3? with daily and semiannual pivots at =4A" and =559, the Sept. !A
all-time intraday high at =9!5.A5, and weekly, monthly and :uarterly risky
levels at =9?9, =9A" and A5!=.
(ussell 4""" F %!"A>.3=' &aily and annual value levels are !"=9.!>, A>>.94
and =9A.3A with a semiannual pivot at !!3A.=!, monthly and weekly risky
levels at !!?A.=4 and !!9A.3>, the Duly ! alltime intraday high at !4!3.?? and
semiannual and :uarterly risky levels at !4=?.39 and !4A4.?A.
The S1H F %>!A.>>' Semiannual and annual value levels are >"=."4, ?!4.A5,
39!.?= and 339.95 with a daily risky level at >49.==, the Sept. !A multiyear
intraday high >?A.>5, and weekly, :uarterly and monthly risky levels at
>>>.?", >=9.>? and >A!.44.
&ow /tilitiesI %??4.?!' Semiannual and annual value levels are ?43.94 and
5A9.?3 with daily, annual and :uarterly pivots at ?5=.>3, ?5=.9" and ??3.3?, a
weekly risky level at ?>>.3>, the Dune 3" all-time intraday high at ?9>.A= and
monthly and semiannual risky levels at ?=A.>9 and >!4.5A.
%tock of the 7ay
(ichard Suttmeier has been a professional in the /S #apital ,arkets since
!A94. (ichard has been fre:uently :uoted in /S8 Today, The 20 Times, <all
Street Dournal, (euters, and The &ow Dones 2ewswires.
1ne of the more popular features of (ichard SuttmeierCs ,orning Briefing
for investors is his stock of the day. *n every issue, Suttmeier highlights one stock
and provides .) data as well as his own proprietary technical data.
*ntel *nc %*2T#' F %$33.?"' *ntel #orporation is one of the worldCs largest semiconductor
chip maker. The #ompany develops advanced integrated digital technology
products, primarily integrated circuits, for industries such as computing and
communications. *t also develops platforms, which it defines as integrated suites of
digital computing technologies that are designed and configured to work together
to provide an optimiJed user computing solution compared to components that are
used separately.
8nalysis F *ntel has a -old rating according to .alu)ngine and is 3!.34@ overvalued
with fair value at $4?.== and one-year price target at $34.?3. The daily chart shows
declining stochastics with the stock below its 4!-day and ?"-day simple moving
averages at $35.9" and $35.3? and above its 4""-day simple moving average at
$4=.>A. 8 :uarterly value level is $3!."3 with a monthly risky level at $3>."5.
2ourtes* 1eta/tock?Genith
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indicators &or the maIor
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2lick D;R; to /ign
: &or 2hie& 1arket
/trategist Richard
/uttmeierHs
1orning @rie&ingJ