2012

--

01/02/2012

2012

GDP

CPI

(%)

2010(A)

1.8

1.58

(%)

CPI

2010(A)

3.9

-0.7

GDP

CPI

2011(P)

1.7

2.4

2011(P)

0.0

-0.4

2010(A)

3.0

1.63

2012(F)

0.3

1.4

2012(F)

1.2

-0.2

2011(P)

1.7

2.9

2012(F)

1.8

2.4

(%)

()
GDP

(%)

GDP

CPI

2010(A)

10.4

3.33

2011(P)

9.3

5.4

2012(F)

8.4

3.1

2010(A)

4.7

1.3

3.4

2011(P)

3.6

0.8

2.8

2012(F)

2.6

0.4

2.2

GDP

(%)

GDP

CPI

2010(A)

10.9

1.0

2011(P)

4.3

1.4

2012(F)

2.5

1.2


2012
2012
2012

2012
--

12/09/2011

GDP<=60%
GDP <=3%
()GDP <=0.5%

EFSF
ESM07/2012EFSF

06/20135,000
(03/20125,000)
ESM(

case)
IMF2,000IMF(1,50017

50010)
(10)

26

03/2012

(
)

EFSF


2009ECB1,1642010ECB1,533
2011(12/23)ECB1,0242011/12/23
ECB (R )

ECB4,118

ECB (L %)

3M EURIBOR (L %)

450
400

350

300
250

200

150
100

50

ECB
7

11/25/2011

4/22/2011

9/17/2010

2/12/2010

7/10/2009

12/5/2008

5/2/2008

9/28/2007

2/23/2007

7/21/2006

12/16/2005

5/13/2005

10/8/2004

3/5/2004

8/1/2003

12/27/2002

5/24/2002

10/19/2001

3/16/2001

8/11/2000

0
2000/1/7


2008ECB5,3632009ECB7,078
2010ECB6,550
2011/12/23

2011(12/23)ECB5,110

ECB8,7292011/12/23 ECB61.31

ECB (R )

ECB (L )
30000

1000
900

25000

800
700

20000

600
500

15000

400
10000

300
200

5000

100

ECB
8

11/4/2011

8/26/2011

6/17/2011

4/8/2011

1/28/2011

11/19/2010

9/10/2010

7/2/2010

4/23/2010

2/12/2010

12/4/2009

9/25/2009

7/17/2009

5/8/2009

2/27/2009

12/19/2008

10/10/2008

8/1/2008

5/23/2008

3/14/2008

0
1/4/2008


2008980200814.07
10/20112,27110/201138.95
E CB ( ;L)

ECB ( ; R)

35,000

400,000

30,000

350,000
300,000

25,000

250,000
20,000
200,000
15,000
150,000
10,000

100,000

5,000

50,000

ECB(2011/12/23)

9/29/2011

6/16/2011

3/1/2011

11/16/2010

8/3/2010

4/20/2010

1/5/2010

9/22/2009

6/9/2009

2/24/2009

11/11/2008

7/29/2008

4/15/2008

0
1/1/2008

ECB

(
)

de-leveraging

10

1Q12

01/2012

EFSF

30%

01/12/2012

ECB

1.ECB

2.ECB

01/24/2012

50

01/24~25/2012

FOMC

01/262730/2012

01/30/2012

FED

FEDQE3

01/31/201202/01/2012
3392~5

01/31/2012
75
02/2012~04/2012
02/01/2012
265
02/19/2012

02/242728/2012
02/2012~04/2013

02/29/2012
193.1
02/2012~04/2012
03/01/2012
275.18
03/2012
26

EFSF

03/2012
ESM5,000
9,400

Bloomberg
11

1.
2.02/19/2012
EFSF

1.21.52%

2.

02/2012~04/2012

500
GDP100%

AAAEFSF
AAA

201060%

Bloomberg
12

12/28/2011
12/28/2011
12/29/2011
01/12/2012
01/13/2012
01/26/2012
01/27/2012
01/30/2012
02/13/2012
02/14/2012
02/24/2012
02/27/2012
02/28/2012
03/13/2012
03/14/2012
03/27/2012
03/27/2012
03/28/2012
03/29/2012

IT
IT
IT
IT
IT
IT
IT
IT
IT
IT
IT
IT
IT
IT
IT
IT
IT
IT
IT

90179
25

Bloomberg
13

()
12/27/11 IT EUR
25.00
12/30/11 IT EUR
88.00
01/16/12 IT EUR
77.00
01/23/12 IT EUR
4.02
01/31/12 IT EUR
75.00
02/01/12 IT EUR
264.52
02/15/12 IT EUR
80.25
02/29/12 IT EUR
87.10
02/29/12 IT EUR
106.00
03/01/12 IT EUR
150.94
03/01/12 IT EUR
124.24
03/05/12 IT USD
0.02
03/15/12 IT EUR
82.50
03/30/12 IT EUR
88.00
04/15/12 IT EUR
153.65
04/16/12 IT EUR
82.50
04/30/12 IT EUR
85.00
04/30/12 IT EUR
122.74
05/15/12 IT EUR
66.00
05/29/12 IT EUR
6.02
05/31/12 IT EUR
80.00
06/15/12 IT USD
30.84
06/15/12 IT EUR
61.15

2-4

10
25

20

2001

15

2002

10

2003

2004
2005

2006

-5

2007
2008

-10

2009

-15

2010

-20

2011

-25
1

Bloomberg
14

10

11

12

1H12
20123,600

80,000

68,500

70,000

Feb-12, 63,031
60,000
46,763

50,000
40,000

Mar-12, 51,425
Apr-12, 46,789

33,106

33,052

30,648

30,000

28,004 29,107
27,099
26,092
17,643

24,806
20,143

20,000

17,605

16,586

11,313
10,894

10,000
0
2011/6

2011/8

2011/10

2011/12

Bloomberg
15

2012/2

2012/4

2012/6

2012/8

2012/10

2012/12

2012
--

-
02/2012~04/2012
()

ECB

(1998)
IMF
2012

2008

IMF

GDP (L:%)

(R:%)

25

30

20

20

15

10

10
0
5
-10

Bloomberg
17

3/31/2011

3/31/2010

3/31/2009

3/31/2008

3/30/2007

3/31/2006

3/31/2005

3/31/2004

3/31/2003

3/29/2002

3/30/2001

3/31/2000

3/31/1999

3/31/1998

-30

3/31/1997

-10

3/29/1996

-20

3/31/1995

-5

 IFO (L)

18
115
PMI(R)
65

110
60

105
55

100
50

95
45

90
40

85
35

80
30

IFOMarkit
1/31/2011

1/31/2010

1/31/2009

PMI(R)

1/31/2008

90
-3

85
-4
-5

80
-6

01/2011

01/2010

01/2009

01/2008

01/2007

01/2006

01/2005

01/2004

01/2003

01/2002

01/2001

01/2000

01/1999

01/1998

01/1997

01/1996

YOY(%)(R)

1/31/2007

1/31/2006

1/31/2005

1/31/2004

1/31/2003

1/31/2002

1/31/2001

1/31/2000

1/31/1999

1/31/1998

1/31/1997

1/31/1996

1/31/1995

1/31/1994

1/31/1993

1/31/1992

1/31/1991

IFO (L)

120
6

115
5

110
4
3

105
2

100
1

95
0
-1

-2

4Q112012

(%)( R )

-4
-5

2
1

-6

01/2011

01/2010

-3

01/2009

01/2008

-2

01/2007

6
5

01/2006

0
-1

01/2005

01/2004

01/2003

01/2002

01/2001

10
9

01/2000

4
3

01/1999

11

01/1998

01/1997

12

01/1996

19

(%)( L )

60
25
50
40
30
20

1/31/2011

1/31/2010

1/31/2009

1/31/2008

1/31/2007

1/31/2006

1/31/2005

1/31/2004

1/31/2003

1/31/2002

1/31/2001

1/31/2000

10

65
30%
25.40%
25%

21.10%

20%

21%
18%

17.48%

17.60%

15%
10%
5%
0%

Bloomberg
20

20120.3%

20120.3%
3Q120.3%0.3%0.1%0.6%
(%)

6
4
2

1.8 1.7
0.3

0.9

2.1

2.1 1.9 2.4 1.6

1.4 1.3

0.3 0.3 0.1 0.6

0
-2
-4
-6

21

4Q12(F)

3Q12(F)

2Q12(F)

1Q12(F)

4Q11(F)

3Q11(P)

2Q11

1Q11

4Q10

3Q10

2Q10

1Q10

2012(F)

2011(F)

2010

-8

 2012
--ECB
--

ECB 1Q121
YOY(%)(R)

(%)(L)

6
5
4
3

2
3

0
-1
-2
-3

2011

2011

02/2011

02/2010

-6

2012

12/29

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q(F)

1Q(F)

2Q(F)

3Q(F)

4Q(F)

1.25

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.00

0.75

0.75

0.75

0.75

1.00

0.75

0.75

0.75

0.75

ECB
23

02/2009

02/2008

(-0.25%)

02/2007

02/2006

11/03/2011
1.25%

02/2005

02/2004

02/2003

02/2001

02/2002

02/2000

02/1999

-4
-5

ECB

10/201111/2011400
(12/28/201130.95)


10/27/2011 371
1.50%
569.34 11/01/2012
12/22/2011 1134
1.00%
4891.9 01/29/2015
02/29/2012
ECB (R; )

ECB

ECB (L; )

220,000

25,000

200,000
180,000

12/16ECB33.61

20,000

ECB2,110

15,000

160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000

10,000

80,000
60,000

5,000

40,000

Bloomberg
24

11/25/2011

10/21/2011

9/16/2011

8/12/2011

7/8/2011

6/3/2011

4/29/2011

3/25/2011

2/18/2011

1/14/2011

12/10/2010

11/5/2010

10/1/2010

8/27/2010

7/23/2010

6/18/2010

2010/5/14

20,000
0

2012

1H122010
1.194Q121.4

Bloomberg
25

01/2012

01/2011

01/2010

01/2009

01/2008

01/2007

01/2006

01/2005

01/2004

01/2003

01/2002

01/2001

01/2000

01/1999

1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
0.8

26

>40%

20%~40%