Development Capacity Report

Updating Seattles Comprehensive Plan

Updated September 2014
2 DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY
Summary
308,057
483,318
70,000
115,000
153,713
115,000
116,745
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
Housing Jobs
Existing
2015 - 2035 Target
Capacity
Existing
2015 - 2035 Target
Capacity
223,713
231,745
70,000
115,000
As part of the update to the Comprehensive Plan (Seattle 2035), DPD estimates development capacity
on a citywide basis, by zoning category, and within urban centers, villages and manufacturing/
industrial centers (MICs). Seattles development capacity analysis does not predict market demand,
or how much or how quickly development will occur in coming years. The analysis only evaluates
the supply that could eventually be produced. Based on current zoning, DPD estimates that the city
has development capacity to add about 224,000 housing units and 232,000 jobs, a suficient amount
to accommodate the 70,000 households and 115,000 jobs the Countywide Planning Policies assign
to Seattle for the next 20 years. About 77% of the housing capacity and 78% of the jobs capacity are
within an urban center, hub urban village or residential urban village. An additional 16% of the jobs
capacity is within manufacturing and industrial centers. The Downtown Urban Center has the most
development capacity for growth over 33,000 housing units and 52,000 jobs.
Seattle Has Adequate Capacity to Grow
April 2014
DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY 3
Background
State and regional agencies estimate that Seattle will add 70,000 housing units (120,000 people) and
115,000 jobs between now and 2035 an increase of 20% population and 23% in jobs. In response,
the City is updating Seattles Comprehensive Plan (Plan) to shape that growth in a way that builds on
our strengths and character as a city. The Plan is a 20-year vision and roadmap for Seattles future to
guide important City decisions and investments. Enacted by the state legislature in 1990, the state
Growth Management Act (GMA) requires the City to have a comprehensive plan and to review that
plan on a regular schedule. The City uses a variety of data to study trends and evaluate policies to
plan for future growth as part of the update process. Development capacity is one such analysis.
What is Development Capacity?
Development capacity, also referred to as zoned
development capacity or zoned capacity, is an
estimate of how much new development could
occur theoretically over an unlimited time period.
It represents the diference between the amount of
development on the land today and the likely amount
that could be built under current zoning. Because
the city has many diferent zones, there are specific
assumptions for each zone. Residential development
capacity is expressed in number of units and non-
residential development capacity is expressed as
number of jobs.
How does development capacity
relate to the 20-year growth targets in
the Comprehensive Plan?
The Comprehensive Plan contains citywide growth
targets for housing and jobs that could be added over
20 years. The plan also apportions that growth to each
urban center and village. Generally, targets for centers
and villages are established so that they dont exceed
80% of the existing capacity in those places.
4 DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY
What is the development capacity for
the citys growth areas- urban centers
and villages?
DPD estimates the development capacity for each
urban center, hub urban village, residential urban
village and manufacturing/industrial center. The citys
growth management strategy is to encourage growth
in these locations close to transit and other services.
Suficient development capacity in these locations
helps implement this strategy. Geographically, about
77% of the housing capacity and 78% of the jobs
capacity are within an urban center, hub urban village
or residential urban village. An additional 16% of the
jobs capacity is within manufacturing and industrial
centers. Generally, the most development capacity
is in or adjacent to Downtown Urban Center. Details
of development capacity for individual villages are in
Appendix 1.
How does the city use estimates of
development capacity?
Currently, as part of the Plan update, development
capacity is used to create planning alternatives to be
analyzed in an environmental impact statement. This
analysis will help us understand the potential impacts
of future growth on infrastructure, transit and other
public facilities. Other uses include evaluating proposed
changes to zoning and other land use policies, and
monitoring development trends.
DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY 5
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000
Urban Centers
Hub Urban Villages
Residential Urban Villages
Outside Villages (SF units)
Ouside Villages (MF units)
Housing Units
Existing Units
Capacity Units
20,886 36,227
65,412 96,862
39,386 38,377
122,406 10,190
41,017 60,631
April 2014
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000
Urban Centers
Hub Urban Villages
Residential Urban Villages
Manufacturing / Industrial Centers
Outside Villages
Jobs
Existing (2012)
Capacity
75,569 15,681
36,044 73,801
21,842
49,438
276,828 108,740
*
**
** 24,573 * 32,547
April 2014
6 DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY
How is development capacity
estimated?
Most cities use a computer model to estimate
development capacity, but models can vary significantly
in their rules and assumptions. The model used by the City
of Seattle follows a method used by all jurisdictions in King
County. First, the model identifies which parcels could be
available for development. This includes vacant parcels
as well as underdeveloped parcels. Second, the model
estimates what type of development is likely to occur
on that parcel. Last, the model calculates the diference
between potential and existing development.
Step 1 Land Available = Vacant Parcels +
Underdeveloped Parcels Excluded Parcels
(see next question)
Step 2 Potential Development = Developable Land
Area x Future Density Assumption
Step 3 Development Capacity = Potential
Development - Existing Development
Some of the important assumptions used in the model
include:
An estimate of the likely split between future
residential development and commercial
development in zones that allow both of those uses
The average size of residential units
The square feet of commercial development per job
The supply of redevelopable land
The probability that smaller parcels will be
assembled into larger development sites
For a more detailed explanation of the model, see the
Appendix 2.
Are some lands excluded from this
analysis?
Yes. We know that many parcels are protected or highly
unlikely to redevelop. The following are NOT included:
Parcels owned by a public entityfederal, state,
county, city, school district, port district, etc.
Parcels used for cemeteries
Parcels used by institutions such as public and private
schools, churches, nursing homes, hospitals, libraries
Parcels used for critical public services such as military
bases, public utilities, railroads, law enforcement
Parcels that contain landmark structures or
transferred development rights
Parcels within a major institution overlay zonethese
parcels follow diferent rules
Additional parcels based on unique circumstances
Does development capacity represent
the maximum amount of development
allowed by zoning?
No. Landowners and developers ofen build less
than the maximum allowed by zoning because of
market conditions, financing, construction costs, and
other constraints. The model applies an observed
density assumption to each parcel based on the
average density of new construction over ten years
for a particular zoning category. In some zones future
development could exceed the observed density and
approach the maximum allowed by the regulations.
If mixed use zones allow both housing
and jobs, how does the model decide
which of those will be built?
The model applies an observed split assumption
to each parcel based on the average split of new
construction over the last ten years for a particular
zoning category. This assumption is applied to every
parcel in that zoning category.
DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY 7
How do you determine that a parcel is
underdeveloped?
Generally the model compares the current level of
development on a parcel with the level that the current
zoning allows. When the diference between these
levels is significant, the model considers the parcel
to be underdeveloped and therefore susceptible to
redevelopment. The development capacity model uses
the following measures to identify parcels likely to
redevelop depending on the type of land use zone:
Residential Development Ratio - the existing
residential units compared to potential residential
units. The lower the ratio, the more likely
redevelopment will occur.
Non-residential Development Ratio - existing
building floor area compared to potential floor area.
The lower the ratio, the more likely redevelopment
will occur.
Improvement to Land Value Ratio - the value of
buildings and other improvements on a parcel
compared to its land value according to King County
assessments.
Does the capacity model predict when
a parcel will redevelop?
Aside from the relatively small number of parcels that
have either active or pending development permits,
it is impossible to know when actual redevelopment
will happen. The model only tells us how much
development could occur, not when. A wide range of
factors influences decisions by individual or corporate
landowners and developers:
Demand for a particular type of development
Landowners willingness to sell or redevelop a
property
Financial feasibility
Market timing
Does development capacity change
over time?
Yes. The real estate market and our Land Use Code
have changed in recent years. We have changed the
assumptions used in our development capacity model
to reflect current information and trends. Changes in
our methods and assumptions have resulted in a higher
estimate of development capacity:
The City changed the Land Use Code to establish
a maximum floor area ratio (FAR) in commercial,
neighborhood commercial and multifamily zones.
This change requires a diferent method to estimate
the number of units based on average square feet
per unit. The current estimate, 1000 gross square
feet per unit, has resulted in an estimate of more
units than in the past.
Changes in zoning will increase development
capacity.
Why upzone when so much
development capacity exists?
While the city may have enough development capacity
overall, upzones may be proposed to encourage
growth in very strategic locations. Upzoning (changing
the zoning of a parcel from one category to another)
has occurred in urban centers and villages where the
potential for major job and housing growth increased
because of the transit investments. For example,
voters approved Sound Transit 2 in 2008, a$17.8 billion
investment to construct the LINK (light rail) system.
Zoning changes can leverage this investment for more
housing and job growth in key locations. Upzones may
help to implement policies in comprehensive plan and
neighborhood plans that encourage residential and job
growth in urban centers and villages.
8 DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY
Which zones have the most
development capacity?
DPD also estimates development capacity of each
zoning category that encourages a particular type of
development. Most of the development capacity for
both jobs and housing is in zones that encourage a mix
of residential and commercial uses.
How old is the data used in to
estimate development capacity?
This analysis includes all existing development and
zoning as of January 2014. That means new buildings
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000
Commercial (C1, C2)
Seattle Mixed
Neighborhood Commercial
Downtown
Highrise Residential
Midrise Residential
Lowrise Residential (LR1,2,3)
SF (RSL, SF 5000, 7200, 9600)
Industrial
Capacity by Zone
Housing Capacity
Jobs Capacity
37,404
10,959
27,735
10,328
8,740
33,512 51,764
66,872 51,491
21,919
43,648 63,066
28,020
April 2014
occupied in February 2014 or later are not reflected. The
results included in this report are based on a model run
in April 2014.
Who can I contact if I have questions
about development capacity?
Tom Hauger, Manager of Comprehensive Planning
Tom. Hauger@Seattle.gov
(206) 684-8380
Technical Note:
The development capacity results in this report reflect data
inputs as of January 2014 and a model run in April 2014.
DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY 9
Appendix 1Development Capacity by Urban Village
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
Belltown
Denny Triangle
Commercial Core
Pioneer Square
Chinatown-International District
Capitol Hill
Pike/Pine
First Hill
12th Avenue
Northgate
South Lake Union
Uptown
Ravenna
University Campus
University District Northwest
Ballard
Bitter Lake Village
Fremont
Lake City
North Rainier
West Seattle Junction
23rd & Union-Jackson
Admiral
Aurora-Licton Springs
Columbia City
Crown Hill
Eastlake
Green Lake
Greenwood-Phinney Ridge
Othello
Madison-Miller
Morgan Junction
North Beacon Hill
Upper Queen Anne
Rainier Beach
Roosevelt
South Park
Wallingford
Westwood-Highland Park
# of housing units
Housing
Existing Units
Capacity Units
April 2014
April 2014
10 DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000
Belltown
Denny Triangle
Commercial Core
Pioneer Square
Chinatown-International District
Capitol Hill
Pike/Pine
First Hill
12th Avenue
Northgate
South Lake Union
Uptown
Ravenna
University Campus
University District Northwest
Ballard
Bitter Lake Village
Fremont
Lake City
North Rainier
West Seattle Junction
23rd & Union-Jackson
Admiral
Aurora-Licton Springs
Columbia City
Crown Hill
Eastlake
Green Lake
Greenwood-Phinney Ridge
Othello
Madison-Miller
Morgan Junction
North Beacon Hill
Upper Queen Anne
Rainier Beach
Roosevelt
South Park
Wallingford
Westwood-Highland Park
Ballard-Interbay-Northend
Greater Duwamish
Outside Villages (residential zones)
Outside Villages (commerical/mixed zones)
Outside Villages (Industrial zones)
Outside Villages (other zones)
# of Jobs
Jobs
Existing (2012)
Capacity
April 2014
DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY 11
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DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY 13
Appendix 2Development Capacity Model - Methods
and Assumptions
The development capacity model follows the basic
steps and assumptions below. Each step is applied at
the individual parcel level and the resulting capacity is
reported for larger planning areas or other areas of interest
as aggregations of the individual parcel information.
Process:
1. Determine developable land area (excluding
water and shoreline protected areas of the parcel),
primary existing land use, and primary zone (zone
covering largest land area of a parcel)
2. Determine total existing residential units, above-
ground building square feet, land and improvement
value from most recent King County Assessor data
3. Determine potential development, i.e., total
residential units and above-ground building square
feet allowed for each zone on a parcel based on
future expected density assumptions
4. Calculate the Improvement to Land Value Ratio (ILR)
as the ratio of improvement value to land value
5. Calculate the Development Ratio (DR) as the ratio of
residential units or above-ground building square
feet that exist to what could be developed
6. Determine the development status for residential
and non-residential development based on existing
uses, ownership, and comparison of the DR or ILR to
predetermined thresholds; of the diferent status values
listed below, only those determined to be VACANT and
REDEV contribute to the capacity estimates
DEVELOPED existing development meets or
exceeds the potential development
HISTORIC historic contributing structures in the
National Historic Districts
LANDMARK a designated landmark structure is
present
LUC existing land use is considered unlikely to
develop; listed below in Assumptions section
MIO - Major Institution Overlay; development is
guided by approved master plans
MISSING no assessor data is available
MPC Master Planned Community zone;
development is guided by approved master plans
PUBLIC owned by a public agency
RAILROAD property owned by various railroad
companies
REDEV - likely to redevelop based on the
existing development relative to the potential
development
TDR buildings that have transferred
development rights
UNAVAIL development type not allowed in a
zone; e.g., commercial development in single-
family zones
UNKNOWN model is unable to determine a
status based on conflicting or non-existing data
VACANT no significant development exists
7. Calculate the adjusted capacity for residential
units, non-residential floor area and employment
by applying non-residential and residential splits
for mixed-use zones and subtracting all existing
development
8. For VACANT and REDEV parcels sum up
development capacity by zoning category

Assumptions:
1. ILR used in industrial and downtown zones (I, D,
IDM, IDR)
For D/IDM/IDR zones, If ILR <= .5 , then set
development status to REDEV
14 DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY
For I zones, If ILR<=.001, then set development
status to REDEV
2. DR:UNITS used in single-family and multi-family
zones (SF, RSL, L, MR, HR)
For SF/RSL zones, If DR < 1, then set development
status to REDEV
For LR1 zones, If DR <= .67, then set development
status to REDEV
For LR2/LR3/MR/HR zones, If DR <= .4, then set
development status to REDEV
3. DR:SQFT used in commercial and neighborhood
commercial zones (C, NC, SM)
For C/NC/SM zone, If DR <= .4, then set
development status to REDEV
4. Capacity is determined for each zone within a parcel
5. Method to determine if redevelopable, ILR,
DR:UNITS or DR:SQFT is determined by the majority
zone
6. Round up to nearest unit or square foot in all zones
except SF, which is rounded down
7. Allow at least one unit of development on all SF
zoned parcels > 1,000 square feet regardless of
parcel size
8. DH1, PMM, PSM-245, IDM-65-150, zones are
considered built to capacity, excluded from capacity
calculations
9. IG1, IG2, IB, IC zones only develop if ILR<=.001
10. Explicit setting of development status for a parcel
for reasons related to data errors, local knowledge,
one building on multiple parcels, etc.
11. Status set to VACANT if King County Assessor land
use codes indicates vacant (LUC=300,301,309,316)
and number of units, building gross square feet and
building value are all 0
12. Status set to MISSING if there is no geographic (GIS)
or attribute (KC Assessor) data available
13. No development allowed:
When no zone was assigned
Within the shoreline overlay (200 from shoreline)
except in IC zones
On parcels (or parcel parts) where the
developable area < 1,000 square feet
On publicly-owned land; includes federal,
state, local, public facilities districts, housing
authority, community colleges, public universities
(identified through taxpayer name)
On designated landmarks, historic contributing
structures in the National Historic Districts,
structures that have transferred development
rights (TDR)
On property owned by railroad companies
(identified through taxpayer name)
In MIO zones (major institution overlay) and MPC
zones (major planned development); can be
separately determined by master plans
On developed downtown plats
Of condominium buildings
Of buildings constructed within the previous 15
years
Of nonconforming land uses in SF, LR1, LR2 zones
Of certain land uses as determined by King
County Assessor land use codes
Retirement facilities (49)
Residence halls, dorms (56)
Nursing homes (59)
Driving ranges (142)
Marinas (146)
Golf courses (143)
Park, public (149)
Church, welfare or religious services (165)
Hospitals (173)
Cemeteries, mortuaries (179)
Public schools (184)
Private schools (185)
Post ofice (189)
Utilities- public, garbage, electric (266)
DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY 15
Historical district, park, billboards (277)
Open space - current use (326)
Open space - agriculture use (327)
Open space - greenbelt - timber use (328)
Reserve or wilderness area (331)
Row, utility, road (332)
Rivers, creek, stream (333)
Tidelands 1st class (334)
Tidelands 2nd class (335)
Lakes fresh water (337)
Rooming houses (341)
Fraternity and sorority houses (342)
16 DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY
Assumptions by Zoning Category
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DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY 17
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M
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r

I
n
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t
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t
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t
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n

&

M
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t
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r

P
l
a
n
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d

C
o
m
m
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n
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t
y
9
2
4
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M
I
O
8
9
7
1
,
4
3
2
4
6
1
,
3
8
6
1
7
,
5
3
3
,
6
1
7
1
0
,
1
1
8
,
5
0
3
0
0
0
M
P
C
2
7
5
6
1
0
5
6
1
4
8
8
,
5
2
3
0
0
0
0
S
o
u
r
c
e
:

K
i
n
g

C
o
u
n
t
y

A
s
s
e
s
s
o
r
;

D
P
D

D
e
v
e
l
o
p
m
e
n
t

C
a
p
a
c
i
t
y

M
o
d
e
l
.
*
I
n

a
l
l

m
i
x
e
d

u
s
e

z
o
n
e
s
,

c
o
m
m
e
r
c
i
a
l

n
e
i
g
h
b
o
r
h
o
o
d

c
o
m
m
e
r
c
i
a
l

a
n
d

m
o
s
t

d
o
w
n
t
o
w
n

z
o
n
e
s
,

a
l
l

f
u
t
u
r
e

d
e
v
e
l
o
p
m
e
n
t

i
s

c
o
n
s
i
d
e
r
e
d

m
i
x
e
d

u
s
e

w
i
t
h

t
h
e

m
i
x

o
f

u
s
e
s

v
a
r
y
i
n
g

b
y

z
o
n
e

b
a
s
e
d

o
n

c
o
m
p
l
e
t
e
d

p
r
o
j
e
c
t
s

f
r
o
m

1
9
9
5

2
0
0
5
.

W
e
d
n
e
s
d
a
y

M
a
y

2
1
,

2
0
1
4
Appendix 3Development Capacity by Zone
City of Seattle Department of Planning and Development
2035.seattle.gov
September 2014