Anzalone Liszt Grove Research conducted N=500 live telephone interviews with likely 2014 voters in Floridas

Second Congressional District. Interviews were conducted between September 21-24, 2014. Respondents were
selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of
sampling error is 4.4% with a 95% confidence level.






October 6, 2014

To: Interested Parties
Fr: John Anzalone / Zac McCrary
Re: Summary of Likely 2014 Voters in Floridas Second Congressional District

Gwen Graham currently holds a three-point lead over Republican incumbent Steve Southerland
(48% Graham / 45% Southerland), representing one of the best chances for a Democratic
challenger to oust a sitting Republican. Graham holds a better net-popularity rating than
Southerland, who is under a 1:1 positive-to-negative ratio both on his popularity and job rating.
Additionally, voters are becoming more favorable toward Graham as they learn about both
candidates, while a better than 2:1 margin indicate they are becoming less favorable toward
Southerland.

Gwen Graham leads Steve Southerland by three points.

Gwen Grahams is currently taking 48% of the vote, compared to 45% for Steve
Southerland. As voters have seen more of each candidate over the past several months,
the race has shifted dramatically from a 7-point Southerland advantage in April (39%
Graham / 46% Southerland) to the current three-point Graham lead.

Additionally, with 15% of the districts African American voters undecided, there is clear
expansion potential available to add to the Graham margin. If Graham is able to
consolidate the districts African American voters to a conservative 90% level, her
districtwide performance would increase to 50%.

As the campaigns have been active in paid communications over the past three months,
Grahams profile has improved while Southerlands has remained flat.

Since March, Grahams name-ID and favorable ratings have doubled. Over the past
several months, her name-ID has increased from 31% (in March) to 71%. And she
currently holds a net-eleven point favorable rating (41% Favorable / 30% Unfavorable).

Comparatively, Southerlands favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is under 1:1
(43% Favorable/ 44% Unfavorable), as is his job rating (45% Positive / 46% Negative).

And when asked how their impressions of each candidate has changed over the past
few weeks, a 2:1 margin indicate theyve become less favorable toward Southerland
(20% More Favorable / 44% Less Favorable) while a double-digit margin have grown
more favorable toward Gwen Graham (37% More Favorable / 26% Less Favorable).