Background Briefing:

Vietnam: Why the U.S. Should

Lift Its Arms Embargo?
Carlyle A. Thayer
October 2, 2014

[client name deleted]
Why should the US lift the arms embargo on Vietnam? Obviously, the one obstacle is
human rights. Are there one or two realistic reforms Vietnam could make in terms of
its laws or policies that would improve human rights there in a lasting way? Clearly,
it's something the US shouldn't ignore what are the specifics of how it might work?
ANSWER: When the present arms embargo was imposed in 1984 Vietnam was
banned as one of a number of countries that were not deemed to be contributing to
global peace and security. Vietnam was in fact occupying Cambodia at that time.
There was no direct linkage between ITAR (International Traffic in Arms Regulations)
and human right. The connection came later and was a political restriction. The Bush
Administration altered ITAR to permit the sale of non-lethal weapons on a case by
case basis.
Human rights is a broad concept. The State Department cites mixed progress in
Vietnam with some positive developments registration of house churches
(Protestants) in the Central Highlands, LGBT rights, religious freedom etc. Critics of
Vietnam focus almost exclusively on political and civil rights Vietnams treatment
of pro-democracy activists, journalists and bloggers. It is unclear if not ambiguous
what human rights mean.
In the past when Vietnam wanted PNTR (Permanent Normal Trade Relations) with
the U.S. as a prerequisite for U.S. approval for WTO membership, it released three
high-profile dissidents. The Bush Administration rewarded Vietnam with PNTR
status.
The most important legal reform Vietnam could make would be to make its Penal
Code more specific about what constitutes criminal activity. At present conducting
propaganda against the socialist state is a crime. So is sowing disunity. Vietnam
needs to be more specific about what actions constitute a criminal activity. It also
needs to lower the draconian punishment it metes out for peaceful expression of
dissenting views.
The problem is that Vietnam is not a unitary actor. Its one-party state is divided at
the very top. Each political faction represses dissent to suit its own purposes.
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Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: Why the U.S. Should Lift Its Arms
Embargo?, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, October 2, 2014. All background
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
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Background Briefing:
Vietnam: Lifting the U.S. Arms
Embargo What Does Vietnam
Want?
Carlyle A. Thayer
October 3, 2014

[client name deleted]
Any thoughts on what Vietnam arms wants and needs?
State Department Opens Up Weapon Sales To Vietnam
Aaron Mehta WASHINGTON
The United States will allow the sale of lethal equipment and weaponry to Vietnam for
maritime defense purposes, the State department announced Thursday.
The executive decision, which ends an overall ban on lethal weapon sales to that
country which has been in place since the end of the Vietnam War, begins
immediately.
It also comes at a time of growing tensions in the South China Sea, including a
situation over the summer where China set up an oil rig in waters claimed by Vietnam.
The definition of what maritime security assets are is nebulous, and will be decided
upon with a case by case basis, as all potential military sales of equipment transfers
currently are. That ensures the US maintains control and prevents Vietnamese military
forces from gaining assets that could be used to quell internal dissent.
It also leaves wiggle room for Vietnam to procure aviation assets. The country is likely
to have an interest in helicopters or planes that can be used for maritime surveillance,
opening up the possibility of Vietnam going after everything from prop planes like the
A-29 Super Tucano to Boeings large P-8 maritime surveillance aircraft.
However, dont expect immediate sales. A state department official, speaking on
background to reporters, said Vietnam does not have any equipment on order at this
moment.
Officials told reporters the decision is the result of growing cooperation between the
US and Vietnam, including Vietnams improvements in the human rights arena. That
includes the release of 11 political prisoners over the last year and improved religious
freedoms within the country.
However, they acknowledged that Chinas growing aggression in the region played a
part in putting the focus on maritime assets.
In very broad terms, its partly in response to the realization that there is a lack of
maritime capacity in the region and it is useful to fil that gap, one official said. And
certainly the need for that has become more apparent over the last year or two. But it
is not in response to a specific action or crisis at the moment.
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This is not an anti-China move. This is not something where we would feel we had to
alert china to. This is really a move on the continuum of things weve been talking
about to help countries build maritime capacity.
The officials stressed that the definition of what could be transferred is limited, and
emphasized that the State department will continue to monitor Vietnams human
rights situation.
Just because weve shifted the nonlethal policy is not an indication were going to
provide all lethal assistance, a second official said. I dont want you to get the sense
the floodgates are opening.
ANSWER: The U.S. announcement that it has now approved the sale of lethal
weapons, equipment and services to Vietnam related to maritime security for
defensive purposes marks a major step forward in defence relations under the
Comprehensive Partnership signed in 2013. Vietnam has a glaring need to enhance it
maritime surveillance and maritime domain awareness capabilities, and the United
States is well placed to assist Vietnam. Vietnam has not made public what it is
interested in purchasing. But sources report that the U.S. has increased funds for
Vietnam under Foreign Military Financing and this should assist Vietnam in making
purchases of equipment of interest.
Vietnam is interested in acquiring Lockheed Martin's P3 Orion maritime surveillance
aircraft. This is a proven work horse that has been continually upgraded. The U.S. is
moving to replace the P3 Orion with the P8 Poseidon and both sides would benefit
from such a deal. The P3 Orion will greatly extend Vietnam's ability to monitor its
maritime domain. The P3 can cover larger surface area for longer time than any
other surveillance aircraft in Vietnam's possession. This aircraft is not likely to be
sold with anti-ship and anti-submarine weapons.
Vietnam's newest Molinya-class frigates come equipped with a helicopter landing
platform. It is possible Vietnam might seek to acquire helicopters configured for
maritime operations.
Vietnam has also expressed an interest in coastal radar.
U.S. sources have indicated that the U.S. is willing to sell Patrol Boats but the class of
these boats has not been revealed. Again, it has been rumoured that Vietnam may
be interested in acquiring High Endurance Coast Guard cutters being phased out of
service. The U.S. removed the guns on the cutters it sold to the Philippines.
If Vietnam does make major weapons and equipment purchases the defence
relationship will extend to maintenance, provisions of spare and even training.
The U.S. change of policy is an indication of growing strategic trust between
Washington and Hanoi. This will enhance not only defence and security relations but
political relations as well. The change of U.S. policy will hearten those in Hanoi who
have been pushing to further develop defence and security ties with Washington. In
the past party conservatives argued that Vietnam would not benefit from such a
move. Now Vietnam's Foreign Minister, Pham Binh Minh, can return home bolstered
by this development.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: Lifting the U.S. Arms Embargo What
Does Vietnam Want?, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, October 3, 2014. All


3
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
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Background Briefing:
Vietnam: U.S. Partially Lifts
Arms Embargo - 1
Carlyle A. Thayer
October 3, 2014

[client name deleted]
Could you please comment on the US partially lifting the arm embargo to Vietnam.
ANSWER: The U.S. announcement that it has now approved the sale of equipment
and services to Vietnam related to maritime security for defensive purposes marks a
major step forward in defence relations under the Comprehensive Partnership
signed in 2013. Vietnam has a glaring need to enhance it maritime surveillance and
maritime domain awareness capabilities, and the United States is well placed to
assist Vietnam. Vietnam has not made public what it is interested in purchasing. But
sources report that the U.S. has increased funds for Vietnam under Foreign Military
Financing and this should assist Vietnam in making purchases of equipment of
interest.
The strongest rumour is that Vietnam is interested in acquiring Lockheed Martin's P3
Orion maritime surveillance aircraft. This is a proven work horse that has been
continually upgraded. The U.S. is moving to replace the P3 Orion with the P8
Poseidon. The P3 Orion aircraft is not likely to be sold with anti-ship and anti-
submarine weapons. However the P3 Orion will greatly extend Vietnam's ability to
monitor its maritime domain. The P3 can cover larger surface area for longer time
periods than any other surveillance aircraft in Vietnam's possession. There are also
reports that Vietnam is interested in coastal radar. A third possibility is the purchase
of Patrol Boats but the class of boat has not been disclosed.
If Vietnam does make major purchases the defence relationship will extend to
maintenance, provisions of spare and even training.
The U.S. change of policy is an indication of growing strategic trust between
Washington and Hanoi. This will enhance not only defence and security relations but
political relations as well.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: U.S. Partially Lifts Arms Embargo -1,
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, October 3, 2014. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123




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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.




Background Briefing:
Vietnam: U.S. Partially Lifts
Arms Embargo - 2
Carlyle A. Thayer
October 4, 2014

[client name deleted]
So the United States had decided to ease a ban on arms sales to Vietnam.
Q1. How do you assess this move? Is it something historic as many commentators
had said?
ANSWER: The U.S. decision to approve the sale of lethal weapons and weapon
systems related solely to maritime security is a major change in U.S. policy towards
territorial disputes in the South China Sea. Prior to this policy change the U.S.
declared that it would not take sides in the legal disputes involving the South China
Sea and urged all parties to settle their disputes peacefully through international
law. This aspect of policy remains unchanged. Now, however, the United States is
arming littoral states to defend those states' interests in the South China Sea. U.S.
assistance to the Philippines is part and parcel of their alliance relationship but even
then the U.S. stripped the Coast Guard cutters of their deck guns before transferring
them to the Philippines. Now the U.S. is willing to arm Vietnam, which is not a treaty
ally, with defensive weapons. In other words, the U.S., to avoid getting into a direct
naval confrontation with China, will arms regional states to increase their capacity
for maritime domain awareness and for self-defence.
Q2. Does Vietnam really need to buy arms from the US? Or the lifting is only a
symbolic matter?
ANSWER: In past years Hanoi indicated that it wanted the arms embargo lifted so
Vietnam could buy spares and other parts to keep their Vietnam-era captured
American Armoured Personnel Carriers and Huey helicopters operational. But mainly
Vietnam's motivations were political. They wanted the arms embargo lifted to end
discrimination against Vietnam. When Senator John McCain visited several years ago
he was given a "wish list" of what Vietnam wanted to procure. This was never made
public. U.S. officials, providing background to the current change of policy, stated
that Vietnam has no orders on the book. In sum, Vietnam's party conservatives set
ending the arms embargo as a pre-condition for a step up in defence and security
cooperation with the United States. Their demand that the arms embargo be lifted
constrained those in the party who wanted to step up defence ties with the United
States. The partial lifting of the arms embargo is a victory for Foreign Minster Pham
Binh Minh and those who advocate further engagement with the U.S.
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123




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Q3. What kind of defense articles Vietnam would like to buy from the US?
ANSWER: Vietnam currently is interested in coastal radar and maritime patrol
aircraft to improve its maritime domain awareness. In particular, the P3 Orion
maritime surveillance aircraft is said to be a priority item. The U.S. is replacing the
Orion with the P8 Poseidon and thus has surplus stock to offload. Since the P3 Orion
can be armed with anti-ship and anti-submarine missiles, it is likely that Vietnam
would like to acquire these weapon systems when conditions are ripe. Vietnam does
not have a well-developed anti-submarine warfare capacity.
Q4. And what kind of weaponry is the US willing to supply?
ANSWER: The U.S. change of policy makes it clear that only weapons related to
maritime security will be sold. U.S. officials have indicated that priority will be given
to the Vietnam Coast Guard. The Coast Guard comes under the Ministry of National
Defence. The U.S. appears willing to sell patrol boats that are armed with deck guns.
The U.S. is also willing to sell P3 Orions but it is unclear if the U.S. will sell the anti-
ship and anti-submarine missiles as well.
Q5. Vietnam had been caught out off guard when China moved the oil rig into
Vietnamese waters because Vietnam did not have accurate means of detection.
What is your assessment?
ANSWER: It is highly plausible that Vietnam learned of China's movement of the
HD981 oil rig from third party sources before Vietnam was able to independently
establish for itself that the oil rig was entering Vietnam's Exclusive Economic Zone.
Vietnam has limited maritime air surveillance assets and it is doubtful that these
aircraft fly near Hainan island. The P2 Orion would boost Vietnam's maritime
surveillance capabilities.
Q6. Some analysts have said that Russia is reluctant to sell some weapons to
Vietnam because of objections from China. Do you agree? How will China react to
the U.S. decision to sell lethal weapons to Vietnam?
ANSWER: Russia is willing to sell all manner of weapons to Vietnam but refrains from
selling weapons or technology that would upset the regional balance. Russia is also
likely ignore any Chinese pressures not to sell to Vietnam, because Vietnam is one of
Russia's top arms markets.
Russia and India co-produce the BrahMos cruise missile. There are unverified reports
that both India and Russia do not want to part with this technology and therefore
will not sell the BrahMos to Vietnam. During a recent conference in Macau last
month one regional security analyst stated that China understands Vietnam's need
to modernise its forces and prefers that Vietnam purchase Russian equipment rather
than acquire U.S. equipment. There are several reasons for this. China has direct
experience and knowledge of Russian weapons. Russia is unlikely to resupply
Vietnam if a conflict broke out with China.
Q7. How will China react?
ANSWER: Chinese state-controlled media are likely to criticize both the U.S. and
Vietnam for undermining regional security and seeking to contain China. The Chinese
media will also be dismissive about U.S efforts to enhance Vietnams maritime


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security capabilities. The Chinese media will argue that China will not feel threatened
or intimidated by U.S. weapon sales to Vietnam.
Chinese officials are likely to be more restrained in their public remarks. China
understands that Vietnam, and other countries, need to purchase weapons and
military equipment from overseas to meet their legitimate defence needs. Both
China and Vietnam purchase weapons from Russia, for example. Chinese officials will
also note that the U.S. is only providing weapons that are defensive in nature. This
will not upset the present naval balance of power.
At the 2nd international conference on China's Maritime Strategy held in Macau last
month, a regional analyst noted that China was reconciled to Vietnam purchasing
arms from Russia and in fact preferred that arrangement to U.S. arms sales to
Vietnam. There are three reasons for this. First, China has first-hand knowledge of
Russian weapon systems. Second, Russia is unlikely to replenish Vietnam's stocks of
missiles if a conventional conflict breaks out between China and Vietnam. Third, the
U.S. is an unknown quantity; arms sales would involve further arrangements for
maintenance, spares and upgrades. This would give the U.S. a foothold in Vietnam
that they presently lack.

Q8. The Obama Administration is using the Presidential Decision to ease the arms
embargo. Isnt this a very clever way to bypass opposition to the move in the U.S.
Congress in the case of a complete lifting of the embargo?

ANSWER: Senator John McCain is clearing the way for a partial lifting of arms sales to
Vietnam in the Congress. So far the U.S. decision has been limited to maritime
defensive weapons and systems. The International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR)
not law govern U.S. arms sales to Vietnam. So far it has been Presidential decisions
that have altered ITAR, first under Bush in 2007 and now under Obama in 2014. The
Administration has been careful to link any future changes to an improvement in
Vietnam's human rights record.

China is unlikely to undertake any "face saving retaliation" because it is setting the
scene for hosting the APEC summit later this year. So far the U.S. has only issued a
declaratory policy. Nothing has happened yet. It is up to Vietnam to submit a request
for arms and it is up to the U.S. to approve such requests on a case by case basis. It is
premature to predict how China will react until the U.S. approves actual weapon
sales.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: U.S. Partially Lifts Arms Embargo -
2, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, October 4, 2014. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.


4




Background Briefing:
Vietnam: U.S. Partially Lifts
Arms Embargo - 3
Carlyle A. Thayer
October 5, 2014

[client name deleted]
We request your assessment of the latest move by the U.S. to allow the sale of lethal
equipment and weaponry to Vietnam for maritime defense purposes. Our questions
are below:
Q1- Do you see this as a surprising development or entirely predictable given the
history of negotiations on this issue?
ANSWER: The decision by the Obama Administration to lift partially restrictions on
the sale of lethal weapons to Vietnam was predictable given the momentum that
built up this year with the visits of Senator John McCain and General Martin
Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The oil rig crisis of May-July also
served to focus U.S. attention on this issue.
Vietnam began pressing for an end to the arms embargo in 2009 if not earlier.
General Phung Quang Thanh, Minister of National Defence, reportedly raised the
arms embargo during his visit to Washington, D.C. late that year. General Thanh
again raised this issue during the visit of Secretary of Defense, Leon Panetta.
President Truong Tan Sang raised the arms embargo when he met Senator McCain
earlier this year.
Q2- Some see this as a gift from the United States to Vietnam to mark the 20th
anniversary of normalization of diplomatic relations next year (1995-2015). What is
your assessment?
ANSWER: The United States only gives gifts when the other side provides
deliverables or responds to U.S. interests and concerns in a positive way. Vietnam
and the United States share convergent security interests in the South China Sea.
Earlier this year Vietnam joined the Proliferation Security Initiative and, according to
U.S. officials, made progress in addressing a number of human rights issues. This
created a positive atmosphere for the U.S. to respond. But the main concern of the
United States is how to counter Chinese aggressiveness in the South China Sea
without becoming involved in a direct confrontation with the Chinese navy. The U.S.
has decided to support both the Philippines and Vietnam by assisting them to build
up their capacity for maritime security. The U.S. has changed its policy and will now
provide lethal weapons that are defensive in nature.
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123




2
Q3- Can this pave the way for further developments in the future between two
countries, such as the possibility of a strategic partnership?
ANSWER: The ball is now in Vietnams court. Vietnam must now decide whether or
not it wants to purchase weapons from the United States, and if so, what kind of
weapons. U.S. sources indicate that patrol boats and maritime surveillance aircraft
for the Vietnam Coast Guard would be suitable. If Vietnam does make a major
purchase this will mean continuing interaction with the United States regarding
maintenance, spare parts and upgrading. If Vietnam operates U.S. ships and weapon
systems this will enhance its ability to operate with the U.S. Navy and Coast Guard.
In sum, weapons sales will enhance bilateral security and defence cooperation. The
two sides will have to build up strategic trust and engage in joint exercises over a
period of time before they can become strategic partners. Both sides have different
perceptions of what a strategic partnership is. The U.S. gives more weight to
military-to-military relations. Vietnam stresses the comprehensive nature of bilateral
relations. In fact the U.S. and Vietnam could become de facto strategic partners
without signing a formal agreement. But this prospect is unlikely in the short run.
Q4- How will this possibly affect the status quo in the South China Sea?
ANSWER: With the exception of Japan, no littoral state in the East China Sea and
South China Sea has been able to deter Chinese assertiveness. Vietnams acquisition
of armed Patrol Boats and maritime surveillance aircraft, such as the P3 Orion, will
enhance its maritime domain awareness. Vietnam will be able to detect and respond
more rapidly to Chinese intrusions into Vietnamese waters. As Vietnam acquires
greater maritime capability this will pose a risk to China. China will always have a
larger number of heavier armed ships available than Vietnam. As Vietnam develops
its maritime security capabilities China will no longer be able to act with impunity. In
other words China will face greater risk if it engages in assertive action.
Q5- So far there has been no official reaction from China, but can you predict Chinas
possible reactions and what should Vietnam do in each case?
ANSWER: Chinese state-controlled media are likely to criticize both the U.S. and
Vietnam for undermining regional security and seeking to contain China. The Chinese
media will also be dismissive about U.S efforts to enhance Vietnams maritime
security capabilities. The Chinese media will argue that China will not feel threatened
or intimidated by U.S. weapon sales to Vietnam.
Chinese officials are likely to be more restrained in their public remarks. China
understands that Vietnam, and other countries, need to purchase weapons and
military equipment from overseas to meet their legitimate defense needs. Both
China and Vietnam purchase weapons from Russia for example. Chinese officials will
also note that the U.S. is only providing weapons that are defensive in nature. This
will not upset the present naval balance of power.
Vietnam does not need to respond to Chinese press reports and commentaries. But
Vietnam could make clear at an appropriate time that it has legitimate reasons to
modernize its armed forces for the purpose of self-defense. Vietnam can also make
this point through diplomatic channels to China. Vietnam should also resist any


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Chinese political and diplomatic pressure designed to disrupt Vietnams defence
cooperation with the United States.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: U.S. Partially Lifts Arms Embargo -
3, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, October 5, 2014. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.