BWD GLOBAL

POLLING MEMO
October 8, 2014
TO: JOE MONAHAN
FR: BWD GLOBAL
ATTN: BRUCE DONISTHORPE
RE: NM ATTORNEY GENERAL POLITICAL SURVEY, October 6-7, 2014
BWD Global is pleased to have completed our latest survey of the State of New Mexico on October 7
th
.
Our survey was conducted using automated polling (IVR) technology on Monday, October 6
th
and
Tuesday, October 7
th
. We collected 1,509 interviews in the Attorney General race in our statewide
survey. All survey participants have a proven voting record of participation in both the 2010 and 2012
general elections. The results were scaled to the off-Presidential year 2010 New Mexico voting
performance norms of a 50%-Democratic, 38%-Republican and 13%-Independent voting electorate.

ATTORNEY GENERAL RACE, STATE OF NEW MEXICO


BALDERAS VS. RIEDEL GENERAL ELECTION MATCHUP, 2014

o If the election for New Mexico Attorney General was held today would you vote for
Susan Riedel, the Republican candidate or Hector Balderas, the Democratic candidate?

BALDERAS: 48%
RIEDEL: 41%
UNDECIDED: 11%

N=1,509 likely voters, MOE: 2.5%


POLLING NOTES: Our latest survey conducted October 6 & 7 finds Democratic candidate Hector
Balderas with a 48%-41% lead over his Republican challenger Susan Riedel with 11% of the voters
undecided. Balderas is on a trendline toward winning the election with 54% of the vote if these numbers
hold up on election day.

Balderas has strong leads (where almost 2/3 of the votes are located) in the Albuquerque Metro (56%-
36%) and Northern New Mexico (68%-25%) areas, while Riedel has strong control of the race in
Southern New Mexico (61%-24%), including the lead in Dona Ana County (44%-39%).

ABOUT BWD GLOBAL: Bruce Donisthorpe, a 35-year veteran of New Mexico politics is the owner of
BWD Global which is based in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Donisthorpe is a native of New Mexico and
is graduate of the University of New Mexico (MA Speech Communication-1985, BA Education-
1982). Donisthorpe served 12 years as the chief legislative aide to US Congressman Joe Skeen on
Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, before returning to New Mexico to establish his policy, politics, public
relations and crisis communications company. Donisthorpe regularly conducts surveys on politics and
public policy issues throughout the Land of Enchantment at the Federal, State, Regional, County and
Municipal government levels and has conducted numerous public and private campaign surveys since
2008.

SURVEY METHODOLOGY: Automated phone dialing survey to landlines using established
demographic methodological standards to approximately 1,891 registered Democratic, Republican and
Independent households within the State of New Mexico. Surveys were conducted using this method on
October 6
th
and 7
th,
between 6 pm and 9 pm, MST. All survey participants have a proven voting record of
participation in the 2010 and 2012 general elections. The results were scaled to the off-Presidential year
voting performance norms of a 50%-Democratic, 38%-Republican and 12%-Independent voting
electorate. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted or adjusted at the top-line to ensure that
responses accurately reflect the populations makeup by factors such as age, sex, ethnicity, region, and
other established demographic standards and variables. The margin of sampling error for this survey
is 2.5% (specific margins of error provided for each question) with a 95% level of confidence for the
interviews conducted in this survey.



DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKOUTS ON NEXT PAGE
DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKOUTS, NM ATTY GENERAL BALLOT, OCTOBER 6-7, 2014
TOTAL BALDERAS% RIEDEL% UNDECIDED%
OVERALL MOE: 2.5% 1,509 48% 41% 11%
GENDER
Female 56% 36% 8%
Male 48% 43% 9%
ETHNICITY
Anglo 37% 54% 9%
Hispanic 70% 22% 8%
AGE
18-49 52% 35% 13%
50-64 49% 39% 12%
65+ 47% 43% 10%
PARTY
Democratic 74% 16% 10%
Republican 18% 73% 9%
Independent 39% 45% 16%
REGION
ABQ Metro 56% 36% 8%
Northern NM 68% 25% 7%
East Side 24% 61% 15%
Dona Ana County 39% 44% 17%
West Side 39% 51% 10%
IDEOLOGY
Progressive 83% 11% 6%
Liberal 80% 16% 4%
Moderate 52% 36% 11%
Conservative 20% 72% 8%
Tea Party 12% 78% 10%
Unsure 50% 28% 22%