REDUCING ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN THE

TRANSITION TO A LOW CARBON GERMANY

IS IT REALISTIC?
Felix Kirsch
| 12 September 2012 | IAEE ConferenceVenice| Felix Kirsch |
Outline
Motivations
Sensitivity Analysis of German Scenarios
Conclusions
2
| 12 September 2012 | IAEE ConferenceVenice| Felix Kirsch |
Motivations
80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050

German Federal Government: [We] seek to cut electricity
consumption by around [] 25% by 2050 (BMWi and BMU 2010)
UK Government: In the longer term, by 2050, electricity
demand is set to double, as we shift more transport and
heating onto the electricity grid. (DECC 2011)

Is Germany being too ambitious?
Is the UK neglecting the possibilities of energy efficiency?


3
| 12 September 2012 | IAEE ConferenceVenice| Felix Kirsch |
Differences in population forecasts


Germany: -10%
UK: +25%

Electricity demand per person:
Germany: -25% by 2050 -15% per person
UK: +100% by 2050 +65% per person

4
| 12 September 2012 | IAEE ConferenceVenice| Felix Kirsch |
4 Pillars of Decarbonisation
Nuclear
For electricity generation

Energy demand reduction
Slower growth, different user behaviour
Higher energy efficiency
Higher electrification (cars, el. heat pumps)
CCS
For electricity generation
For industrial processes
Renewables
Direct electricity generation (wind, solar PV, hydro, etc.)
Biomass
Solar thermal, geothermal
5
| 12 September 2012 | IAEE ConferenceVenice| Felix Kirsch |
Energy efficiency-related assumptions
Change in energy demand per person in 2050 over current levels
Energy Efficiency
assumptions
change over current levels
DE Scenario UK Scenario
Households Net heat -40% -25%
Lighting and Appliances -22% -19%
Commercial

Net heat -70% +4%
Cooling +240% +40%
Lighting and Appliances -20% -12%
Industry Energy Intensity -45% -40%
Transport

Conv. Car Fuel Efficiency -50% -50%
Electric Car Fuel Efficiency -25% -45%
6
Next step: Sensitivity analysis of energy demand in German scenarios
unambitious
super ambitious
ambitious
very ambitious
Colour coding from DECC 2050 Pathways Calculator (decc.gov.uk/2050)
DE = Germany
DE Scenario: Scenario IA of Szenarien fr ein Energiekonzept der Bundesregierung (Prognos et al. 2010)
UK Scenario: Pathway Alpha of Pathways Analysis (DECC 2010)
| 12 September 2012 | IAEE ConferenceVenice| Felix Kirsch |
1
st
Sensitivity: Different useful energy demand
per person
Non-electric
final energy
e.g. fossil fuels,
biomass, etc.
Electricity
Useful
Energy
e.g. heat, shaft
power, etc.

7
| 12 September 2012 | IAEE ConferenceVenice| Felix Kirsch |
Results: Final energy demand per person in
Germany
67 kWh/d

43 kWh/d 43 kWh/d
18 kWh/d
15 kWh/d 18 kWh/d
DE 2010 2050 DE Scenario DE scenario with UK
assumptions
Electric final energy
demand
Non-electric final
energy demand
8
| 12 September 2012 | IAEE ConferenceVenice| Felix Kirsch |
2
nd
Sensitivity: Different electrification level
Previous sensitivity + electrification quota assumptions:












DE-Scenario
assumptions
UK Scenario
assumptions
change over current levels
Households Heating electrification 15% 75%
Commercial Heating electrification 10% 88%
Industry Industry electrification 30% 66%
Transport Share of Plug-in Hybrid Cars 33% 32%
Share of Battery Electric Cars 22% 48%
9
| 12 September 2012 | IAEE ConferenceVenice| Felix Kirsch |
Higher electrification of energy demand:
More electricity, less non-electric final energy
Non-electric
final energy
Electricity
Useful
Energy
e.g. heat,
shaft power,
etc.
10
| 12 September 2012 | IAEE ConferenceVenice| Felix Kirsch |
Results: Final energy demand per person
67 kWh/d
43 kWh/d
30 kWh/d
18 kWh/d
15 kWh/d
26 kWh/d
DE 2010 2050 DE Scenario DE scenario with
UK assumptions
Electric final energy
demand
Non-electric final
energy demand
11
| 12 September 2012 | IAEE ConferenceVenice| Felix Kirsch |
Why the high electrification level in UK?
Meeting 80% reduction in GHG emissions in 2050 requires lower
emissions per person in UK:
German Scenario: 2t CO
2
e per person in 2050
UK Scenario: 1.4t CO
2
e per person in 2050

Lower emissions require replacing more (high-carbon) fuels
with (low-carbon) electricity



12
| 12 September 2012 | IAEE ConferenceVenice| Felix Kirsch |
16 kWh/d

12 kWh/d

6 kWh/d
8 kWh/d
5 kWh/d
12 kWh/d
DE 2010 DE Scenario 2050 DE Scenario 2050
with UK assumptions
Industry
Industry energy demand per person
electricity
non-electric final
energy demand
Greatest impact of altered assumption in
industry
Industry DE Scenario UK Scenario
Energy Intensity
Improvement
45% 40%
Electrification Level
30%
(as today)
66%
13
| 12 September 2012 | IAEE ConferenceVenice| Felix Kirsch |
Conclusions
Changes in efficiency assumptions show only moderate increases in
electricity demand
Electrification assumptions are more significant
Electrification of industry has single greatest impact

Is decreasing electricity demand realistic? Uncertain.
Should consider possibility of constant or increasing electricity demand

14
67 kWh/d
43 kWh/d 43 kWh/d
30 kWh/d
18 kWh/d
15 kWh/d 18 kWh/d
26 kWh/d
DE 2010 2050 DE Scenario DE scenario with
UK efficiency
assumptions
DE scenario with
UK efficiency &
electrification
assumptions
Electric final energy
demand
Non-electric final
energy demand
| 12 September 2012 | IAEE ConferenceVenice| Felix Kirsch |
Thanks!
felix.kirsch@hs-niederrhein.de
15
| 12 September 2012 | IAEE ConferenceVenice| Felix Kirsch |
Literature
BMWi and BMU (2010), Energy Concept for an Environmentally Sound, Reliable and Affordable Energy Supply.
Available at:
http://www.bmu.de/files/english/pdf/application/pdf/energiekonzept_bundesregierung_en.pdf
(accessed 20 June 2012)
DECC (2011), Electricity Market Reform: keeping the lights on in the cheapest, cleanest way, DECC press
release: 2011/061, 12 July 2011, Department of Energy and Climate Change.
EC (2011), Energy Roadmap 2050 Impact Assessment, Part 2, European Commission. Available at:
http://ec.europa.eu/energy/energy2020/roadmap/doc/sec_2011_1565_part2.pdf (accessed 12 June
2012).
Eurostat (2012), Energy balance sheets 2009-2010, European Union. Available at:
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_OFFPUB/KS-EN-12-001/EN/KS-EN-12-001-EN.PDF (accessed
29 June 2012).
HM Government (2011), 2050 Pathways Analysis: Response to the Call for Evidence, March 2011, Department
of Energy and Climate Change.
HM Government (2011a), The Carbon Plan: Delivering our low-carbon future, December 2011, Department of
Energy and Climate Change.
MacKay, D.J.C. (2009), Sustainable Energy without the hot air, UIT Cambridge. Available free at:
www.withouthotair.com (accessed 10 July 2010).
Prognos, EWI and GWS (2010), Energieszenarien fr ein Energiekonzept der Bundesregierung, Study for BMWi,
Schlesinger, M., Lindenberger, D., Lutz, C. et al., Basel/Kln/Osnabrck, August 2010.
Umweltbundesamt (2011), Entwicklung der spezifischen Kohlendioxid-Emissionen des deutschen Strommix
1990-2009 und erste Schtzung 2010 im Vergleich zum Stromverbrauch. Available at:
http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/energie/archiv/co2-strommix.pdf (accessed 12 June 2012).
16