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Mastering the Hype Cycle:
How to Choose the Right Innovation at the Right Time
Mark Raskino
Hype Frustration
I cant think of anything that isnt cloud computing
with all of these announcements. The computer
industry is the only industry that is more fashion-
driven than womens fashion. Maybe Im an idiot,
but I have no idea what anyone is talking about.
What is it? Its complete gibberish. Its insane.
When is this idiocy going to stop?
Larry Ellisons Brilliant Anti-Cloud Computing Rant
Wall Street Journal: September 25, 2008
The greatest benefits of globalization will
accrue to countries and groups that can
access and adopt new technologies.
Indeed, a nations level of technological
achievement generally will be defined in
terms of its investment in integrating and
applying the new, globally available
technologies.
US National Intelligence Council, Mapping the
Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence
Councils 2020 Project, December 2004
Innovation Necessity
Why do organizations repeatedly fall victim
to hype-driven innovation adoption, even
when they know about the hype cycle?
How can organizations design or adapt a
process that drives smarter adoption
decisions?
What techniques do industry leaders use
to track, prioritize, evaluate and drive
innovation into the business?
Images: world.honda.com, http://www.pal-robotics.com/
Asimo
Reem-B
Second MP3
player 1998
Collage of positive news hype clippings here
Positive
Hype
Negative
Hype
Innovation
Trigger
Inflated
Expectations
Trough of
Disillusionment
E
x
p
e
c
t
a
t
i
o
n
s
Time
Irrational exuberance
Novelty preference
Social contagion Competitive Pressure
Overcoming inertia Imagination
Marketing
Confirmation bias
Image: www.pressroom.ups.com/multimedia/images/technology/
Expectations due
to excitement
and aspiration
Emerging Embryonic
Early
Mainstream Adolescent
Expectations due to
engineering &
business progress
Technology
Trigger
Peak of
Inflated
Expectations
Trough of
Disillusionment
Slope of
Enlightenment
Plateau of
Productivity
Innovation
Trigger
Peak of Inflated
Expectations
Slope of
Enlightenment
Plateau of
Productivity
Trough of
Disillusionment
Positive
Hype
Negative
Hype
of Innovation
ex pec ta tion Pronunciation [ek-spek-tey-shuhn]
noun
1. the act or the state of expecting: to wait in expectation.
2. the act or state of looking forward or anticipating.
3. an expectant mental attitude: a high pitch of expectation.
4. something expected; a thing looked forward to.
?
You can find proxy indicator for expectations
150
100
50
m
i
l
l
i
o
n
s
1998 2000 2004 2002
NEWS REFS
80000
40000
70000
60000
50000
30000
10000
0
20000
1990 1998 1996 2002 2004 2006 1994 2000 1992
News References for Business Model
Hype Cycle
Articles using the term business model
Source:
Source:
Source: Gartner using Yahoo!
Amazon stock price, 1998 to 2005
Foreign Direct Investment In China
Source: Gartner using Factiva.
Source: Unilever
Its Everywhere
Management Trends
News References for Business Model
Hype Cycle
NEWS REFERENCES
80000
40000
70000
60000
50000
30000
10000
0
20000
1990 1998 1996 2002 2004 2006 1994 2000 1992
Number of articles using the term business model from 1990 to 2006
Source: Gartner research using Factiva.
Its Everywhere
Stock Prices
150
100
50
m
i
l
l
i
o
n
s
1998 2000 2004 2002
1
Source: Gartner and Yahoo! Inc
Amazon stock price, 1998 to 2005
Its Everywhere
Macro-economics
Source: IBM
Internet
Web
U.S. IPOs
1997/1998
Dot.Com
Begins
U.S.
Christmas
1998
Dot.Com
Shake-out
Publicized
E-Failures
Business
Disillusionment
True
E-Business
Emerges
Optimized
E-Business
Post-Net
Businesses
European IPOs
1999
E Is Best
Investor Disillusionment
Dot.Com Share
Fallout
Brick-and-Mortar Failures
Gartner E-business Hype Cycle as Published in 1999
Gartner Analyst
Alex Drobik.
Were not
saying Gartner
predictions are
infallible! Just
this is a
proven thinking
tool
Time
Slope of Enlightenment
Trough of
Disillusionment
Peak of
Inflated
Expectations
Innovation
Trigger
Plateau of
Productivity
E
x
p
e
c
t
a
t
i
o
n
s
Adopting
too early
Giving up
too soon
Hanging on
too long
Adopting
too late
Time
Slope of Enlightenment
Trough of
Disillusionment
Peak of
Inflated
Expectations
Innovation
Trigger
Plateau of
Productivity
E
x
p
e
c
t
a
t
i
o
n
s
Getting the
jump on
competitors
Optimizing
supplier
relationships
Finding your
angle
Acquiring talent
Maximizing publicity value
Banking your
experience
Planning your
purchases
Leading the
mainstream
wave
Leveraging lower
costs and risks
Expanding a niche
Imagining
the implications
Goal: Identify and invest in the right emerging technologies and methods
early enough to gain advantage, but late enough to manage risk.
Transfer Evaluate Track
Scope Evangelize
Innovation
Candidates
Rank
Model for Proactive Technology Innovation Management
Individual managers
innovating locally
must master the Hype Cycle?
Corporate
innovation leaders
Specialist emerging trends &
technologies groups
Value from the Hype Cycle tool
In an economic downturn
Type A Activity Zone
Type B Activity Zone
Type C Activity Zone
E
X
P
E
C
T
A
T
I
O
N
S
TIME
Be selectively
aggressive with
advanced cost cutting
innovations e.g. Cloud
Revise your portfolio
mix to the new
business risk posture
Prevent premature
cancellations in the trough
(e.g. Web 2.0, RFID)
Hide early radar
tracking
But dont KILL it!
Attack the
bog of
diminishing
returns
INNOVATION
TRIGGER
PEAK OF INFLATED
EXPECTATIONS
TROUGH OF
DISILLUSIONMENT
SLOPE OF
ENLIGHTENMENT
PLATEAU OF
PRODUCTIVITY
Today (Monday Morning)
Identify who is responsible for your companys innovation activities.
Triage upcoming and recently-funded initiatives, using the hype cycle
Near Future (The Next 12 Months)
Create your own company & industry hype cycle based on Gartner research
Build a robust process for selectively aggressive technology innovation
Ensure the process encourages central, business unit & grass roots initiatives
Master the hype cycle
an understanding of this repeating business pattern will serve you well
throughout your future career
Technology Planners, CTOs, EA leads, CIOs & CEOs (of small cos) should
Gartner research analysts publish over 50 different topic area
hype cycles each year, covering over 1000 technologies
AVAILABLE WHEREVER
BOOKS ARE SOLD
WWW.HARVARDBUSINESS.ORG/PRESS
Visit
www.gartner.com/hypecycle
Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view.
These materials can be reproduced only with written approval from Gartner.
Such approvals must be requested via e-mail: vendor.relations@gartner.com.
Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
Mastering the Hype Cycle:
How to Choose the Right Innovation at the Right Time
Mark Raskino