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Technical analysis might sound enticing on paper but how does it actually perform in reality?
EARLY DAYS
In a pioneering paper, Fama and Blume (1966) found no evidence ofsignificant profits
using a class of technical trading rules in the stock market.
Their findings were backed up by Van Horne and Parker (1967, 1968) and Jensen
andBenington (1970).
RECENT WORK
However, more recent work by Brock, Lakonishok and LeBaron(1992) and Sullivan,
Timmermann and White (1999) have refuted the idea.
Otherstudies that found positive profits using technical analysis include studies
byMenkhoff and Schlumberger (1995), Lee and Mathur (1996a, 1996b), Maillet
andMichel (2000), Lee et al. (2001) and Martin (2001).
In the paper by Park and Irvin(2007) they conclude that a majority of modern studies
showed that technical tradingstrategies generated positive economic profits.
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OTHER PAPERS
Most of the papers on technical analysis have focused on daily data while only ahandful has
taken an intraday approach. These papers include Curcio et al (1997),Neely and Weller (2003),
Sager and Taylor (2004), Melvin, Sager and Taylor (2006)and Kozhan and Salmon (2010).
The former two studies found no evidence of positiveexcess returns after transaction costs are
considered. Using tick by tick data, Kozhanand Salmon found that excess profits exists for a
trading rule in 2003 but these profitsdisappeared by 2008.
In addition, almost all studies on technical analysis in the foreign exchange markethave focused
on the major currencies. Anne D. Martin (2009) found statistically significant profits using
themoving average rule on currencies of developing countries. However the rule does
notoutperform a risk free strategy after taking into account the Sharpe ratio.
Gerben deZwart et al. (2009) took a holistic approach by combining both fundamental
andtechnical information to generate trading signals for 21 emerging currency marketsand
found economically and statistically significant positive risk-adjusted returns.The results are
consistentwith the findings by Szakmary and Mathur (1997), where they also found a day of the
week effect, where trading profits are generally higher on Fridays and Mondays,consistent with
conjectures in previous studies where news concerning interventiontends to be revealed over
weekends.
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Silber (1994) took a slightly different approach inthat he linked markets where technical
analysis proved profitable to markets wherecentral bank intervention exists.In another study,
Sapp (2004) found that market volatility is higher beforeinterventions which in itself can be a
plausible explanation for interventions. It alsoimplies that the positive returns earned by
technical analyst during this period are infact an adequate compensation for risk bearing.
Pukthuanthong-Le, Levich and Thomas (2007) find that currencies for emerging markets tend
to have more profit opportunities than developed nations.
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The principles of technical analysis are derived from hundreds of years of financial
markets data. Some aspects of technical analysis began to appear in Joseph de la Vega's
accounts of the Dutch markets in the 17th century. In Asia, technical analysis is said to be a
method developed by Homma Munehisa during early 18th century which evolved into the use
of candlestick techniques, and is today a technical analysis charting tool. In the 1920s and 1930s
Richard W. Schabacker published Stock Market Theory and Practice and Technical Market
Analysis.
In 1948 Robert D. Edwards and John Magee published Technical Analysis of Stock Trends which
is widely considered to be one of the seminal works of the discipline. It is exclusively concerned
with trend analysis and chart patterns and remains in use to the present.
In short, Technical analysts believe that the historical performance of stocks and markets are
indications of future performance.
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DOWS THEORY
Charles Dow developed the Dow theory from his analysis of market price action in the late 19th
century. Until his death in 1902, Dow was part owner as well as editor of The Wall Street
Journal. Although he never wrote a book on the subject, he did write some editorials that
reflected his views on speculation and the ro
role of the rail and industrial averages.
averages
Even though Charles Dow is credited with developing the Dow theory, it was S.A. Nelson and
William Hamilton who later refined the theory into what it is today. Nelson wrote The ABC of
Stock Speculation and was the first to actually use the term "Dow theory." Hamilton further
refined the theory through a series of articles in The Wall Street Journal from 1902 to 1929.
Hamilton also wrote The Stock Market Barometer in 1922,
2, which sought to explain the theory
in detail.
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The "main movement", primary movement or major trend may last from less
than a year to several years. It can be bullish or bearish.
The "medium swing", secondary reaction or intermediate reaction may last from
ten days to three months
The "short swing" or minor movement varies with opinion from hours to a
month or more.
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An accumulation phase (phase 1) is a period when investors "in the know" are
actively buying (selling) stock against the general opinion of the market. During
this phase, the stock price does not change much because these investors are in
the minority demanding (absorbing) stock that the market at large is supplying
(releasing).
A public participation (or absorption) phase: eventually, the market catches on
to these astute investors and a rapid price change occurs (phase 2). This occurs
when trend followers and other technically oriented investors participate. This
phase continues until rampant speculation occurs.
A distribution phase: At this point, the astute investors begin to distribute their
holdings to the market (phase 3).
Stock prices quickly incorporate new information as soon as it becomes available. Once news is
released, stock prices will change to reflect this new information.
In Dow's time, the US was a growing industrial power. The US had population centers but
factories were scattered throughout the country. Factories had to ship their goods to market,
usually by rail. Dow's first stock averages were an index of industrial (manufacturing)
companies and rail companies. To Dow, a bull market in industrials could not occur unless the
railway average rallied as well, usually first. According to this logic, if manufacturers' profits are
rising, it follows that they are producing more. If they produce more, then they have to ship
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more goods to consumers. Hence, if an investor is looking for signs of health in manufacturers,
he or she should look at the performance of the companies that ship the output of them to
market, the railroads. The two averages should be moving in the same direction. When the
performance of the averages diverges, it is a warning that change is in the air.
Dow believed that volume confirmed price trends. When prices move on low
volume, there could be many different explanations. But when price movements
are accompanied by high volume, Dow believed this represented the "true"
market view.
If many participants are active in a particular security, and the price moves
significantly in one direction, Dow maintained that this was the direction in
which the market anticipated continued movement. To him, it was a signal that a
trend is developing.
6. TRENDS EXIST UNTIL DEFINITIVE SIGNALS PROVE THAT THEY HAVE ENDED
Dow believed that trends existed despite "market noise". Markets might temporarily move in
the direction opposite to the trend, but they will soon resume the prior move. Determining
whether a reversal is the start of a new trend or a temporary movement in the current trend is
not easy. Dow Theorists often disagree in this determination.
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Whereas Fundamental analysis examines the earning potential of the company issuing a stock,
goes on the assumption that a share of ownership of a company has an intrinsic value that is a
function of the underlying value of the company as a whole. In simple words,
Earnings, expenses, assets and liabilities are all important characteristics to fundamental
analysts.
2. Technical analysis is widely used among traders and financial professionals and is very
often used by active day traders, market makers and pit traders.
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3 BASIC PRINCIPLES:
1. MARKET ACTION DISCOUNTS EVERYTHING:
Based on the premise that all relevant information is already reflected by prices, technical
analysts believe it is important to understand what investors think of that information, known
and perceived.
Technical analysts believe that prices trend directionally, i.e., up, down, or sideways (flat) or
some combination. The basic definition of a price trend was originally put forward by Dow
Theory which says the market is in an upward trend if one of its averages (industrial or
transportation) advances above a previous important high
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STRENGTHS:
1. FOCUS ON PRICE
If the objective is to predict the future price, then it makes sense to focus on price movements.
Price movements usually precede fundamental developments. By focusing on price action,
technicians are automatically focusing on the future. The market is thought of as a leading
indicator and generally leads the economy by 6 to 9 months. To keep pace with the market, it
makes sense to look directly at the price movements. More often than not, change is a subtle
beast. Even though the market is prone to sudden knee-jerk reactions, hints usually develop
before significant moves. A technician will refer to periods of accumulation as evidence of an
impending advance and periods of distribution as evidence of an impending decline.
Many technicians use the open, high, low and close when analyzing the price action of a
security. There is information to be gleaned from each bit of information. Separately, these will
not be able to tell much. However, taken together, the open, high, low and close reflect forces
of supply and demand.
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3. SUPPORT/RESISTANCE
Simple chart analysis can help identify support and resistance levels. These are usually marked
by periods of congestion (trading range) where the prices move within a confined range for an
extended period, telling us that the forces of supply and demand are deadlocked. When prices
move out of the trading range, it signals that either supply or demand has started to get the
upper hand. If prices move above the upper band of the trading range, then demand is winning.
If prices move below the lower band, then supply is winning.
Even if you are a tried and true fundamental analyst, a price chart can offer plenty of valuable
information. The price chart is an easy to read historical account of a security's price movement
over a period of time. Charts are much easier to read than a table of numbers. On most stock
charts, volume bars are displayed at the bottom. With this historical picture, it is easy to
identify the following:
Technical analysis can help with timing a proper entry point. Some analysts use fundamental
analysis to decide what to buy and technical analysis to decide when to buy. It is no secret that
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timing can play an important role in performance. Technical analysis can help spot demand
(support) and supply (resistance) levels as well as breakouts. Simply waiting for a breakout
above resistance or buying near support levels can improve returns.
It is also important to know a stock's price history. If a stock you thought was great for the last 2
years has traded flat for those two years, it would appear that Wall Street has a different
opinion. If a stock has already advanced significantly, it may be prudent to wait for a pullback.
Or, if the stock is trending lower, it might pay to wait for buying interest and a trend reversal.
WEAKNESSES:
1. ANALYST BIAS
Just as with fundamental analysis, technical analysis is subjective and our personal biases can
be reflected in the analysis. It is important to be aware of these biases when analyzing a chart.
If the analyst is a perpetual bull, then a bullish bias will overshadow the analysis. On the other
hand, if the analyst is a disgruntled eternal bear, then the analysis will probably have a bearish
tilt.
2. OPEN TO INTERPRETATION
Furthering the bias argument is the fact that technical analysis is open to interpretation. Even
though there are standards, many times two technicians will look at the same chart and paint
two different scenarios or see different patterns. Both will be able to come up with logical
support and resistance levels as well as key breaks to justify their position. While this can be
frustrating, it should be pointed out that technical analysis is more like an art than a science,
somewhat like economics. Is the cup half-empty or half-full? It is in the eye of the beholder.
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3. TOO LATE
Technical analysis has been criticized for being too late. By the time the trend is
identified, a substantial portion of the move has already taken place. After such a large
move, the reward to risk ratio is not great. Lateness is a particular criticism of Dow
Theory.
5. TRADER'S REMORSE
Not all technical signals and patterns work. When you begin to study technical analysis,
you will come across an array of patterns and indicators with rules to match. For
instance: A sell signal is given when the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern is
broken. Even though this is a rule, it is not steadfast and can be subject to other factors
such as volume and momentum. In that same vein, what works for one particular stock
may not work for another. A 50-day moving average may work great to identify support
and resistance for IBM, but a 70-day moving average may work better for Yahoo. Even
though many principles of technical analysis are universal, each security will have its
own idiosyncrasies.
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TYPES OF CHARTS:
There are four main types of charts that are used by investors and traders depending on the
information that they are seeking and their individual skill levels. The chart types are: the line
chart, the bar chart, the candlestick chart and the point and figure chart.
LINE CHART:
The most basic of the four charts is the line chart because it represents only the closing prices
over a set period of time. The line is formed by connecting the closing prices over the time
frame. Line charts do not provide visual information of the trading range for the individual
points such as the high, low and opening prices. However, the closing price is often considered
to be the most important price in stock data compared to the high and low for the day and this
is why it is the only value used in line charts. Following is the line chart showing closing prices of
Axis Bank Ltd for one month
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BAR CHART:
The bar chart expands on the line chart by adding several more key pieces of information to
each data point. The chart is made up of a series of vertical lines that represent each data point.
This vertical line represents the high and low for the trading period, along with the closing
price. The close and open are represented on the vertical line by a horizontal dash. The opening
price on a bar chart is illustrated by the dash that is located on the left side of the vertical bar.
Conversely, the close is represented by the dash on the right. Generally, if the left dash (open)
is lower than the right dash (close) then the bar will be shaded black/blue, representing an up
period for the stock, which means it has gained value. A bar that is colored red signals that the
stock has gone down in value over that period. When this is the case, the dash on the right
(close) is lower than the dash on the left (open).
EXAMPLE:
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CANDLESTICK CHART:
The candlestick chart is similar to a bar chart, but it differs in the way that it is visually
constructed. Similar to the bar chart, the candlestick also has a thin vertical line showing the
period's trading range. The difference comes in the formation of a wide bar on the vertical line,
which illustrates the difference between the open and close. And, like bar charts, candlesticks
also rely heavily on the use of colors to explain what has happened during the trading period.
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The point and figure chart is not well known or used by the average investor but it has had a
long history of use dating back to the first technical traders. This type of chart reflects price
movements and is not as concerned about time and volume in the formulation of the points.
When first looking at a point and figure chart, you will notice a series of Xs and Os. The Xs
represent upward price trends and the Os represent downward price trends. There are also
numbers and letters in the chart; these represent months, and give investors an idea of the
date. Each box on the chart represents the price scale, which adjusts depending on the price of
the stock: the higher the stock's price the more each box represents.
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PATTERNS OF CHART
HEAD AND SHOULDERS:
This is one of the most popular and reliable chart patterns in technical analysis. Head and
shoulders is a reversal chart pattern that when formed, signals that the security is likely to
move against the previous trend.
There are two versions of the head and shoulders chart pattern. Head and shoulders top
(shown on the left) is a chart pattern that is formed at the high of an upward movement and
signals that the upward trend is about to end. Head and shoulders bottom, also known
as inverse head and shoulders (shown on the right) is the lesser known of the two, but is used
to signal a reversal in a downtrend.
There are four main parts: two shoulders, a head and a neckline. Also, each individual head and
shoulder is comprised of a high and a low. For example, in the head and shoulders top image
shown on the left side, the left shoulder is made up of a high followed by a low. In this pattern,
the neckline is a level of support or resistance.
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This price pattern forms what looks like a cup, which is preceded by an upward trend. The
handle follows the cup formation and is formed by a generally downward/sideways movement
in the security's price. Once the price movement pushes above the resistance lines formed in
the handle, the upward trend can continue.
There is a wide ranging time frame for this type of pattern, with the span ranging from several
months to more than a year.
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This chart pattern is another well-known pattern that signals a trend reversal.
It is considered to be one of the most reliable and is commonly used.
These patterns are formed after a sustained trend and signal to chartists that the trend
is about to reverse.
The pattern is created when a price movement tests support or resistance levels twice
and is unable to break through.
In the case of the double top pattern, the price movement has twice tried to move above a
certain price level. After two unsuccessful attempts at pushing the price higher, the trend
reverses and the price heads lower.
In the case of a double bottom (shown on the right), the price movement has tried to go lower
twice, but has found support each time. After the second bounce off of the support, the
security enters a new trend and heads upward.
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TRIANGLES:
Triangles are some of the most well-known chart patterns used in technical analysis.
The three types of trianglesare:
symmetrical triangle
ascending
descending triangle
The symmetrical triangle in Figure 4 is a pattern in which two trend lines converge toward each
other. This pattern is neutral in an ascending triangle, the upper trend line is flat, while the
bottom trend line is upward sloping. This is generally thought of as a bullish pattern in which
chartists look for an upside breakout.
In a descending triangle, the lower trend line is flat and the upper trend line is descending. This
is generally seen as a bearish pattern where chartists look for a downside breakout.
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These two short-term chart patterns are continuation patterns that are formed when there is a
SHARP PRICEMOVEMENT followed by a generally sideways price movement. This pattern is
then completed upon another sharp price movement in the same direction.
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Triple tops and triple bottoms are another type of reversal chart pattern in chart analysis.
These are not as prevalent in charts as head and shoulders and double tops and bottoms, but
they act in a similar fashion.
These two chart patterns are formed when the price movement tests a level of support or
resistance three times and is unable to break through; this signals a reversal of the prior trend.
Confusion can form with triple tops and bottoms during the formation of the pattern because
they can look similar to other chart patterns. After the first two support/resistance tests are
formed in the price movement, the pattern will look like a double top or bottom, which could
lead a chartist to enter a reversal position too soon.
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ROUNDING BOTTOM:
A rounding bottom, also referred to as a saucer bottom, is a long-term reversal pattern that
signals a shift from a downward trend to an upward trend. This pattern is traditionally thought
to last anywhere from several months to several years.
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IMPORTANT LEVELS
SUPPORT LEVEL:
The price, at which, historically, a stock had difficulty falling below. It is thought of as the level
at which a lot of buyers tend to enter the stock is often referred to as the Support Level.
RESISTANCE LEVEL:
The Price at which a stock or market can trade, but which it cannot exceed, for a certain period
of time is often referred to as Resistance Level.
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INDICATORS
MONEY FLOW INDEX
INTRODUCTION
The Money Flow Index (MFI) is an oscillator that uses both price and volume to measure buying
and selling pressure. Created by Gene Quong and Avrum Soudack, MFI is also known as volumeweighted RSI. MFI starts with the typical price for each period. Money flow is positive when the
typical price rises (buying pressure) and negative when the typical price declines (selling
pressure). A ratio of positive and negative money flow is then plugged into an RSI formula to
create an oscillator that moves between zero and one hundred. As a momentum oscillator tied
to volume, the Money Flow Index (MFI) is best suited to identify reversals and price extremes
with a variety of signals.
CALCULATION
There are a several steps involved in the Money Flow Index calculation. The example below is
based on a 14-period Money Flow Index, the setting recommended by the creators.
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NOTE
Decide on the time frame over which to calculate the index. This should be based on the
cycle that you are trading.
Add Money Flow for each period (in the time frame) that Typical Price moves up.
Add Money Flow for each period (in the time frame) that Typical Price moves down.
First notice that Raw Money Flow is essentially dollar volume because the formula is volume
multiplied by the typical price. Raw Money Flow is positive when the typical price advances
from one period to the next and negative when the typical price declines. The Raw Money Flow
values are not used when the typical price is unchanged. The Money Flow Ratio in step 3 forms
the basis for the Money Flow Index (MFI). Positive and Negative Money Flow are summed for
the look-back period (14) and the Positive Money Flow sum is divided by the Negative Money
Flow sum to create the ratio. The RSI formula is then applied to create a volume-weighted
indicator. The table below shows a calculation example taken from an excel spreadsheet.
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EXPLAINATION:
The Money Flow Index is a volume/momentum technical indicator that measures the strength
of total Money flowing into and out of a stock, bond or commodity. Money Flow looks at both
price and volume activity. It is similar to RSI, which looks only at price.
Money Flow (MF) is a theory that correlates a relationship between price movement and the
actual amount of money flowing in or out of a stock, bond or commodity. The belief is as
money goes in or out of a security a measurable, predictive and usable pattern should exist. By
measuring the amount of net money movement, supply and demand trends can be qualified,
and better identified as attractive or overpriced. You are, in essence, measuring whether
investors are paying more or less than market price.
Money Flow analysis identifies divergences between trends in price and trends in money flow.
If the price goes up, money should be flowing into it. If the price goes down, money should be
flowing out. When price is trending higher, money flow should be trending higher. When price
is trending down, money flow should be trending down. Bearish divergence is when price is
trending higher and money flow is falling. Bullish divergence is when price is trending lower and
money flow is increasing. Price usually corrects in the direction of money flow.
Money Flow for a specific period is calculated by multiplying the average price by the volume.
Positive Money Flow is the sum of the positive Money Flow over a specific period. Negative
Money Flow is the sum of the negative Money Flow over a specific period. Money Flow is
considered positive when there is an increase in average price and negative when there is a
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decrease in average price. The Money Flow Ratio is the positive Money Flow divided by the
negative Money Flow. A Money Flow Index generally looks like the following
Money Flow is about comparing price movement with trading volume on up days versus down
days. The money flow indicator rises if there is more volume on up days than on down days,
and vice versa. Money Flow should not be the primary indicator for trading; it functions best as
a supporting study to help further confirm a trading opportunity.
When using the Money Flow Index (MFI) monitoring for divergence between the indicator and
the price action is the key. If the price trends higher and the MFI trends lower (or vice versa) a
price reversal may be imminent. The divergence between the indicator and the price usually
signals that a reversal of the price trend is expected. Money Flow Index above 80 usually shows
that the security is overbought and the price is likely to fall down. Monitor for tops to occur
when the MFI is above 80.
Money Flow Index below 20 usually shows that the security is oversold and a reverse trend may
be expected with the price setting up to rally. Monitor for market bottoms to occur when the
MFI is below 20. General patterns to observe when divergence begins to appear are to buy on
weakness when money is flowing into a stock, bond or commodity even though its price has
been falling. This could be an opportunity to buy before it is likely to rise. Equally, when
divergence appears, sell on strength when money is flowing out of a stock, bond or commodity
even though its price has been rising. This could be an opportunity to sell.
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MOVING AVERAGE:
The market indices do not rise or fall in straight line. The upward and downward are
interrupted by counter moves. The underlying trend can be studied by smoothening of the
data. To smooth the data moving average technique is used.
The word moving means that the body of data moves ahead to include the recent
observation. If it is five day moving average, on the sixth day the body of data moves to
include the sixth day observation eliminating the first days observation. Likewise it continues.
In the moving average calculation, closing price of the stock is used.
Assuming our data is in the range B1:B12,Just enter this formula in the cell C3:
=AVERAGE(B1:B3)
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Buy and sell signals are provided by the moving averages. Moving averages are used along
with the price of the scrip. The stock price may intersect the moving average at a particular
point. Downward penetration of the rising average indicates the possibility of a further fall.
Upward penetration of a falling average would indicate the possibility of the further rise and
gives the buy signal.
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RSI = 100 -
100
1 + RS
RS =
The RSI can be calculated for any number of days depending on the wish of the technical
analyst and the time frame of trading adopted in a particularstock market. RSI is calculated
for 5, 7, 9 and 14 days. If the period taken for calculation is more, the possibility of getting
wrong signals is reduced.
The broad rule is, if the RSI crosses seventy there may be downturn and it is time to sell. If the
RSI falls below thirty it is time to pick up the script. If the RSI is rising in the overbought zone,
it would indicate the downfall of the price. If RSI falls in the overbought zone, it gives a clear
signal of sell. This condition occurs after a sharp rise in price during a period of heavy buying.
When the RSI is in the oversold region, it generates the buy signal. The term oversold is used
to describe a security or market that has declined to an unreasonably low level.
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RATE OF CHANGE:
ROC helps to find out the overbought and oversold positions in scrip. Closing prices are used
to calculate the ROC. Daily closing prices are used for the daily ROC and weekly closing prices
for weekly ROC. In this study I have used weekly closing prices for calculation.
The Rate of Change (ROC) indicator is a very simple yet effective momentum oscillator that
measures the percent change in price from one period to the next. The (ROC) calculation
compares the current price with the price n periods ago.
ROC = ((Todays close Close n periods ago) / (Close n periods ago)) * 100
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The main advantage of ROC is the identification of overbought and oversold region. The historic
high and low values of the ROC should be identified at first to locate the overbought and
oversold region. If the scrips ROC reaches the historic high values, the scrip is in the
overbought region. If the scrips ROC reaches the historic low value, the scrip is in the oversold
region.
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In
the
18th
century
wealthy
Japanese
Homma is regarded as the Grandfather of candlesticks because of his research on price pattern
recognition. Homma is credited with giving rise to a research technique which became the basis
for trading in Japan.
Steve Nison, Father of candlesticks and author of popular candlestick charting books such as
Strategies for Profiting with Japanese Candlestick Charts and Beyond Candlesticks: New
Japanese Charting Techniques Revealed is widely credited with bringing candlestick charting to
the Western world from Japan in 1989 when he published his first article on candlestick analysis
in Futures magazine.
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To simply understand markets, we need to start communicating through its sign language, i.e.
charts.
There are different types of charts. The most prevalent today is candlesticks, invented by
Japanese. We shall have our focus on Japanese candlesticks for its sheer ability to generate
perfect signal timings.
BASIC 2 CANDLESTICKS
(i)
BULLISH AND
(ii)
BEARISH
ii)
Upper/lower wicks
Wicks
iii)
High to low
Length
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BULLISH:
When the close is significantly higher than the open, it is termed as Bullish Candle. Control is
with the bulls.
BEARISH:
When the close is significantly lower than the open, it is termed as Bearish Candle. Control
is with the bears.
These two are basic candle patterns and lets call them Decision Candles (since control is
clearly with bulls or bears)
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If you closely observe all the above ones, a common thing appears. Neither Bulls nor Bears
have control! and this is important to know. There are close to 95 such candle patterns;
believe it or not, the only important thing to note is neither party has control; and lets call
them Indecision Candles.
So we have two general types of candles (i) Decision and (ii) Indecision.
The next question that comes to our minds is when do we get a trade signal? What do you
say After a decision candle or an indecision candle.
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When we have a specific combination of decision and indecision candles, its a trade signal
for us. There are only six such signals: 3 to buy and 3 to sell. Are we simplifying now? Let us
see each signal now. By the end of this discussion, you shall be hav
having
ing answer to the
question WHAT? i.e. What action has to be taken? BUY or SELL. But do not hurry; it is only
25%, before you start trading.
This pattern
n has to be bought at the opening of next candle and out stop should go around 25
PIPs below the low of the pattern (the lower low).
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This pattern has to be sold at opening of next candle and our stop should go around. 30 PIPs
above the high of the pattern (the highest level).
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This pattern has to be bought at opening of next candle, the stop should go 25 PIPs below the
low of pattern.
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If you have a combination of atleast 2 indecision candles, back-to-back, whose, upper wicks are
min 60% of their respective lengths; then its a SELL signal. Tweezer Top. Please remember,
both candles must appear back-to-back.
This pattern has to be sold at the opening of next candle, the stop should go 30 PIPs above the
high of pattern.
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If you have a combination of a bullish candle, immediately followed by a bearish candle, that
engulfs the bullish body; then it is a SELL signal; Engulfing Bearish.
This pattern has to be sold at opening of the next candle; stop should go 30 PIPs above high of
the pattern.
We have just answered the question WHAT (action to be taken). Please hold, we still need to
cater WHEN, WHY & WHERE before its OK to trade with confidence.
You can act on above patterns accordingly, but there are 2 exceptions where its not
recommended to act.
PAGE 45 OF 221
OTHER SIGNALS
HAMMER AND SHOOTING STAR
THE HAMMER
As its name implies, the inverted Hammer looks like an upside down version of the Hammer
Candlestick Chart Pattern which we learned about several lessons ago. Like the Hammer
Pattern, the Inverted Hammer is comprised of one candle and when found in a downtrend is
considered a potential reversal pattern.
The pattern is made up of a candle with a small lower body and a long upper wick which is at
least two times as large as the short lower body. The body of the candle should be at the low
end of the trading range and there should be little or no lower wick in the candle.
What this chart pattern is basically telling us is that although sellers ended up driving price
down to close near to where it opened, buyers had significant control of the market at some
point during the period which formed the long upper wick. This buying pressure during the
downtrend calls the trend into question which is why the candle is considered a potential
reversal pattern. Like the other one candle patterns we have learned about however, most
PAGE 46 OF 221
traders will wait for a higher open on the next trading period before taking an
anyy action based on
the pattern.
Most traders will also look at a longer wick as a sign of a greater potential reversal and like to
see an increase in volume on the day the Inverted Hammer Forms.
PAGE 47 OF 221
The Shooting Star looks exactly the same as the Inverted Hammer, but instead of being found in
a downtrend it is found in an uptrend and thus has different implications. Like the Inverted
Hammer it is made up of a candle with a small lower body, little or no lower wick, and a long
upper wick that is at least two times the size of the lower body.
The long upper wick of the chart pattern indicates that the buyers drove prices up at some
point during the period in which the candle was formed but encountered selling pressure which
drove prices back down for the period to close near to where they opened. As this occurred in
an uptrend the selling pressure is seen as a potential reversal sign. When encountering this
pattern traders will look for a lower open on the next period before considering the pattern
valid and potentially including it in their trading strategy.
As with the Inverted Hammer most traders will see a longer wick as a sign of a greater potential
reversal and like to see an increase in volume on the day the Shooting Star forms.
PAGE 48 OF 221
PAGE 49 OF 221
Trading is a game and as any other game, there are rules here as well. Lets understand the rules
first.
BULLS
BEARS
They are programmed to drag prices They are programmed to drag prices
higher.
lower.
When a new high is made, Bulls score a When a new low is made, Bears score a
pointand they take a break (pullback)for a point and they take a break (pullback) for a
while.
while.
(When bulls break) Past resistance, it tends (When bears break) Past support tends to
toprovide future support.
Now, since we are clear with rules of the game, lets go further. While the bulls and bears are
playing this game, two things are formed; supports (when bulls are active) and Resistance
(when bears are active). Lets understand both of them.
PAGE 50 OF 221
SUPPORT
To understand support, lets first understand what is a low.
A point which is lower than the lows of 2 candles to the right and 2 candles to the left, is
termed as THE LOW.
Having identified a low, lets go to find support. Support is a low which is
i.
ii.
When market is in an uptrend, as shown below, it forms supports and moves ahead
(higher). Hence in an uptrend, supports are more significant.
The view should be like an up staircase.
RESISTANCE
To understand resistance, lets first understand what is a high.
A point which is higher than the highs of 2 candles to the right and 2 candles to the left, is
termed as THE HIGH.
PAGE 51 OF 221
ii)
When market is in a downtrend, as shown above, it forms resistance and moves ahead
(lower). Hence in a downtrend, resistances are more significant.
The view should be like that of a down staircase.
MARKET MOVEMENTS:
PAGE 52 OF 221
UPTREND
When the market makes higher highs and higher lows it is said to be an uptrend.
PAGE 53 OF 221
TREND LINES:
There are three types of trend lines.
I.
RULES:
II.
OUTER LINE
It gives the Intermediary market condition.
RULES:
III.
RULES:
PAGE 54 OF 221
ii.
iii.
iv.
PAGE 55 OF 221
DOWNTREND
When the market makes lower highs and lower lows it is said to be a downtrend.
PAGE 56 OF 221
TREND LINES:
There are typically 3 types of trend lines as were in an uptrend:
I.
II.
III.
Such that no candle is cut between A & D. Kindly refer to above figure.
II.
OUTER LINE
It gives the Intermediary market condition.
RULES:
III.
RULES:
PAGE 57 OF 221
II.
III.
IV.
V.
2)
3)
4)
VI.
Sell the opening of next candle after looking into equity management
(this shall be discussed in the coming sessions), place top above part A.
PAGE 58 OF 221
USD/INR
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The Indian Rupee was pegged to the British Sterling from 1926 to 1966 at INR 13.33 to 1 Pound.
The peg was changed to the US Dollar in 1966 at Rs 7.5 to 1 USD.
And the chart shows the trend of INR against USD since 1990s till 2014.
PAGE 59 OF 221
PAGE 60 OF 221
Date
3/1/2013
3/2/2013
3/3/2013
3/4/2013
3/5/2013
3/6/2013
3/7/2013
3/8/2013
3/9/2013
3/10/2013
3/11/2013
3/12/2013
3/13/2013
3/14/2013
3/15/2013
3/16/2013
3/17/2013
3/18/2013
3/19/2013
3/20/2013
3/21/2013
3/22/2013
3/23/2013
3/24/2013
3/25/2013
3/26/2013
3/27/2013
3/28/2013
3/29/2013
3/30/2013
3/31/2013
4/1/2013
Close
54.0886
54.8147
55.031
55.031
55.0276
54.8367
54.7724
54.5955
54.3718
54.214
54.214
54.3302
54.2029
54.2131
54.1965
54.0234
53.907
53.907
54.091
54.2245
54.3709
54.2794
54.319
54.219
54.219
54.1574
54.2331
54.3481
54.3235
54.4017
54.355
54.355
12 Days
Moving Avg.
24 Days
Moving Avg.
54.610625
54.62015
54.57001667
54.500475
54.41650833
54.323125
54.24565
54.18886667
54.15795
54.157875
54.163325
54.172075
54.16280833
54.16415
54.15950833
54.16255833
54.18961667
54.224325
54.26555
54.28755
54.298425
54.38671667
54.39215
54.3647625
54.33151667
54.3030625
54.273725
54.2556
54.23820833
54.2281875
PAGE 61 OF 221
4/2/2013
4/3/2013
4/4/2013
4/5/2013
4/6/2013
4/7/2013
4/8/2013
4/9/2013
4/10/2013
4/11/2013
4/12/2013
4/13/2013
4/14/2013
4/15/2013
4/16/2013
4/17/2013
4/18/2013
4/19/2013
4/20/2013
4/21/2013
4/22/2013
4/23/2013
4/24/2013
4/25/2013
4/26/2013
4/27/2013
4/28/2013
4/29/2013
4/30/2013
5/1/2013
5/2/2013
5/3/2013
5/4/2013
5/5/2013
5/6/2013
5/7/2013
5/8/2013
5/9/2013
5/10/2013
5/11/2013
54.4318
54.3201
54.3874
54.6846
54.7406
54.567
54.567
54.6022
54.3947
54.3052
54.2266
54.3476
54.378
54.378
54.4418
54.1282
53.8088
53.8016
53.681
53.565
53.565
53.8367
54.0697
54.0494
53.9299
54.0368
54.078
54.078
54.0423
53.6469
53.2942
53.4149
53.5262
53.362
53.362
53.7084
53.8485
53.7594
53.9723
54.4744
54.3035
54.30689167
54.31259167
54.35139167
54.39485833
54.42899167
54.45681667
54.47799167
54.483925
54.47588333
54.46518333
54.46456667
54.46008333
54.46490833
54.46944167
54.423075
54.345425
54.28164167
54.20780833
54.121375
54.05223333
54.01319167
54.00011667
53.97526667
53.937925
53.90949167
53.879175
53.87499167
53.89445
53.88155833
53.849325
53.83681667
53.83358333
53.794025
53.73505
53.70663333
53.69985
53.67673333
53.667925
53.70095833
PAGE 62 OF 221
54.2306875
54.23510833
54.24233333
54.2571
54.27950417
54.29425
54.3096875
54.33380417
54.354125
54.37071667
54.37636667
54.38149583
54.38179167
54.3859
54.39101667
54.38723333
54.37014167
54.35531667
54.3323125
54.29968333
54.26807917
54.2445375
54.23265
54.21991667
54.19900417
54.1872
54.17430833
54.14903333
54.1199375
54.0816
54.02856667
53.97909583
53.94290833
53.90360833
53.86758333
53.84095
53.8188875
53.7931125
53.77355
53.787975
5/12/2013
5/13/2013
5/14/2013
5/15/2013
5/16/2013
5/17/2013
5/18/2013
5/19/2013
5/20/2013
5/21/2013
5/22/2013
5/23/2013
5/24/2013
5/25/2013
5/26/2013
5/27/2013
5/28/2013
5/29/2013
5/30/2013
5/31/2013
6/1/2013
6/2/2013
6/3/2013
6/4/2013
6/5/2013
6/6/2013
6/7/2013
6/8/2013
6/9/2013
6/10/2013
6/11/2013
6/12/2013
6/13/2013
6/14/2013
6/15/2013
6/16/2013
6/17/2013
6/18/2013
6/19/2013
6/20/2013
54.509
54.509
54.6607
54.5447
54.6132
54.5846
54.7645
54.892
54.892
54.9119
55.0663
55.4488
55.7182
55.6269
55.735
55.735
55.6047
55.8116
56.182
56.264
56.5465
56.627
56.627
56.5493
56.4517
56.5995
56.8305
56.9546
57.258
57.258
57.7717
58.3346
57.9382
58.0236
57.5799
57.559
57.559
57.7332
58.481
58.8051
53.73985
53.81169167
53.92556667
54.01971667
54.1103
54.21218333
54.32905833
54.42769167
54.51465
54.61069167
54.70185833
54.78305833
54.883825
54.97698333
55.06650833
55.1657
55.248325
55.350575
55.4687
55.58303333
55.72090833
55.86383333
55.99389167
56.0856
56.146725
56.227775
56.31906667
56.4207
56.558475
56.67900833
56.81148333
56.98403333
57.10000833
57.21639167
57.2958
57.37994167
57.47221667
57.56669167
57.70423333
57.85844167
PAGE 63 OF 221
53.81715
53.846625
53.88744583
53.92826667
53.97194167
54.00310417
54.03205417
54.0671625
54.10725
54.1437125
54.18489167
54.24200833
54.3118375
54.3943375
54.4960375
54.59270833
54.6793125
54.78137917
54.89887917
55.0053625
55.11777917
55.2372625
55.347875
55.43432917
55.515275
55.60237917
55.6927875
55.7932
55.9034
56.01479167
56.14009167
56.28353333
56.41045833
56.5401125
56.64484583
56.73277083
56.80947083
56.89723333
57.01165
57.13957083
6/21/2013
6/22/2013
6/23/2013
6/24/2013
6/25/2013
6/26/2013
6/27/2013
6/28/2013
6/29/2013
6/30/2013
7/1/2013
7/2/2013
7/3/2013
7/4/2013
7/5/2013
7/6/2013
7/7/2013
7/8/2013
7/9/2013
7/10/2013
7/11/2013
7/12/2013
7/13/2013
7/14/2013
7/15/2013
7/16/2013
7/17/2013
7/18/2013
7/19/2013
7/20/2013
7/21/2013
7/22/2013
7/23/2013
7/24/2013
7/25/2013
7/26/2013
7/27/2013
7/28/2013
7/29/2013
7/30/2013
59.7909
59.6283
59.659
59.659
59.7964
59.7
60.1731
60.3507
59.6964
59.597
59.597
59.3734
59.4779
60.1035
60.1008
60.464
61.034
61.034
60.8346
60.1043
59.9833
59.7397
59.8839
59.896
59.896
59.7849
59.1504
59.3056
59.6141
59.6554
59.507
59.507
59.4783
59.5731
59.37
59.176
59.0478
59.105
59.105
59.3726
58.06951667
58.26704167
58.42431667
58.53468333
58.68953333
58.82923333
59.04533333
59.277975
59.45609167
59.61140833
59.70440833
59.75176667
59.72568333
59.76528333
59.8021
59.86918333
59.97231667
60.08348333
60.13860833
60.118075
60.14198333
60.153875
60.17778333
60.22133333
60.256175
60.229625
60.150425
60.05389167
59.93556667
59.82068333
59.71005
59.660275
59.61819167
59.60430833
59.56148333
59.50148333
59.4308
59.37414167
59.37035833
59.37594167
PAGE 64 OF 221
57.31399583
57.473025
57.6179
57.75935833
57.89477083
58.0228125
58.17056667
58.32895833
58.46415417
58.58905
58.70432083
58.80510417
58.8976
59.0161625
59.11320833
59.20193333
59.330925
59.45635833
59.59197083
59.698025
59.7990375
59.88264167
59.94109583
59.98655
59.99092917
59.99745417
59.9762625
59.9615375
59.95394167
59.95208333
59.92432917
59.889175
59.8800875
59.87909167
59.86963333
59.86140833
59.8434875
59.80188333
59.76039167
59.71491667
7/31/2013
8/1/2013
8/2/2013
8/3/2013
8/4/2013
8/5/2013
8/6/2013
8/7/2013
8/8/2013
8/9/2013
8/10/2013
8/11/2013
8/12/2013
8/13/2013
8/14/2013
8/15/2013
8/16/2013
8/17/2013
8/18/2013
8/19/2013
8/20/2013
8/21/2013
8/22/2013
8/23/2013
8/24/2013
8/25/2013
8/26/2013
8/27/2013
8/28/2013
8/29/2013
8/30/2013
8/31/2013
9/1/2013
9/2/2013
9/3/2013
9/4/2013
9/5/2013
9/6/2013
9/7/2013
9/8/2013
60.3021
61.0818
60.7717
60.9808
61.129
61.129
61.1518
61.5444
61.4922
61.0812
60.6389
60.512
60.512
60.9402
61.4251
61.4451
61.3759
61.9758
62.654
62.654
63.1695
63.8104
64.2165
65.0252
64.4237
64.305
64.305
64.4248
66.1438
67.7732
67.4206
66.8917
66.517
66.517
66.3979
67.5958
67.361
66.2259
65.3987
64.569
59.433275
59.55214167
59.65753333
59.78035
59.91790833
60.04756667
60.19605
60.39341667
60.59711667
60.7618
60.889625
60.984575
61.00206667
60.99026667
61.04471667
61.08340833
61.10398333
61.17455
61.29973333
61.3922
61.531975
61.75940833
62.05754167
62.43364167
62.75961667
63.04001667
63.28000833
63.52831667
63.92564167
64.40875833
64.805975
65.15911667
65.438075
65.663625
65.84540833
66.059625
66.3044
66.464475
66.55561667
66.56763333
PAGE 65 OF 221
59.68442083
59.6864125
59.68379167
59.7203125
59.76805
59.8259375
59.87876667
59.94745
60.01395833
60.06797083
60.12999167
60.18025833
60.21767083
60.27120417
60.351125
60.43187917
60.51094583
60.61105833
60.74789167
60.89280833
61.06454583
61.26060417
61.47358333
61.70910833
61.88084167
62.01514167
62.1623625
62.3058625
62.5148125
62.79165417
63.05285417
63.27565833
63.485025
63.71151667
63.951475
64.24663333
64.53200833
64.75224583
64.9178125
65.047975
9/9/2013
9/10/2013
9/11/2013
9/12/2013
9/13/2013
9/14/2013
9/15/2013
9/16/2013
9/17/2013
9/18/2013
9/19/2013
9/20/2013
9/21/2013
9/22/2013
9/23/2013
9/24/2013
9/25/2013
9/26/2013
9/27/2013
9/28/2013
9/29/2013
9/30/2013
10/1/2013
10/2/2013
10/3/2013
10/4/2013
10/5/2013
10/6/2013
10/7/2013
10/8/2013
10/9/2013
10/10/2013
10/11/2013
10/12/2013
10/13/2013
10/14/2013
10/15/2013
10/16/2013
10/17/2013
10/18/2013
64.569
64.5546
63.9281
63.4803
63.352
63.4603
63.153
63.153
62.7488
63.0729
62.8811
61.4175
61.9308
62.274
62.274
62.3597
62.5169
62.3696
61.8198
62.0309
62.702
62.702
62.5884
62.2802
62.2617
61.6524
61.203
61.011
61.011
61.3311
61.4497
61.5784
61.2797
60.6802
60.597
60.597
60.8161
61.138
61.2657
60.8464
66.4364
66.16818333
65.87714167
65.59285833
65.32910833
65.07438333
64.803975
64.43374167
64.04939167
63.78664167
63.57684167
63.31421667
63.09436667
62.90431667
62.766475
62.67309167
62.6035
62.51260833
62.40150833
62.308
62.3041
62.27319167
62.2488
62.32069167
62.34826667
62.29646667
62.20721667
62.094825
61.96933333
61.88279167
61.85195
61.81424167
61.69571667
61.52723333
61.36128333
61.22101667
61.10055
61.05768333
61.06290833
61.04919167
PAGE 66 OF 221
65.18102083
65.28847083
65.34155833
65.3759875
65.38359167
65.36900417
65.32469167
65.24668333
65.17689583
65.12555833
65.06622917
64.940925
64.76538333
64.53625
64.32180833
64.132975
63.96630417
63.79349583
63.60274167
63.37087083
63.17674583
63.02991667
62.91282083
62.81745417
62.72131667
62.60039167
62.48684583
62.38395833
62.28641667
62.1977
62.12672917
62.06112083
61.99990833
61.9002125
61.80504167
61.77085417
61.72440833
61.677075
61.6350625
61.57200833
10/19/2013
10/20/2013
10/21/2013
10/22/2013
10/23/2013
10/24/2013
10/25/2013
10/26/2013
10/27/2013
10/28/2013
10/29/2013
10/30/2013
10/31/2013
11/1/2013
11/2/2013
11/3/2013
11/4/2013
11/5/2013
11/6/2013
11/7/2013
11/8/2013
11/9/2013
11/10/2013
11/11/2013
11/12/2013
11/13/2013
11/14/2013
11/15/2013
11/16/2013
11/17/2013
11/18/2013
11/19/2013
11/20/2013
11/21/2013
11/22/2013
11/23/2013
11/24/2013
11/25/2013
11/26/2013
11/27/2013
60.7448
60.757
60.757
61.1043
61.1525
61.0848
61.1239
61.13
61.085
61.085
61.1479
61.1642
60.9953
61.1716
61.7939
61.868
61.868
61.8485
61.7244
62.0691
62.406
62.7558
63.146
63.146
63.3445
63.7101
63.563
63.1175
62.9419
62.5742
62.574
62.4142
62.0441
62.2422
62.6737
62.6836
62.2832
62.283
62.2582
62.1461
61.02700833
60.97916667
60.92144167
60.88193333
60.87133333
60.90505
60.94895833
60.993375
61.01578333
61.01136667
61.00155
61.02803333
61.04890833
61.08345833
61.16986667
61.23350833
61.29313333
61.356775
61.40681667
61.485075
61.59515833
61.73439167
61.9009
62.06605
62.26181667
62.47335833
62.62078333
62.72490833
62.8144
62.874875
62.945675
62.97443333
62.944275
62.901475
62.86211667
62.82358333
62.73514167
62.61621667
62.50748333
62.42653333
PAGE 67 OF 221
61.49817083
61.43097917
61.38669583
61.3480875
61.283525
61.21614167
61.15512083
61.10719583
61.05816667
61.034525
61.03222917
61.0386125
61.03795833
61.0313125
61.04565417
61.05772083
61.08223333
61.1309125
61.1778875
61.239225
61.30547083
61.37287917
61.451225
61.54704167
61.6553625
61.77840833
61.895325
61.97920833
62.05376667
62.115825
62.17624583
62.22975417
62.26971667
62.31793333
62.38150833
62.44481667
62.49847917
62.5447875
62.56413333
62.57572083
11/28/2013
11/29/2013
11/30/2013
12/1/2013
12/2/2013
12/3/2013
12/4/2013
12/5/2013
12/6/2013
12/7/2013
12/8/2013
12/9/2013
12/10/2013
12/11/2013
12/12/2013
12/13/2013
12/14/2013
12/15/2013
12/16/2013
12/17/2013
12/18/2013
12/19/2013
12/20/2013
12/21/2013
12/22/2013
12/23/2013
12/24/2013
12/25/2013
12/26/2013
12/27/2013
12/28/2013
12/29/2013
12/30/2013
12/31/2013
1/1/2014
1/2/2014
1/3/2014
1/4/2014
1/5/2014
1/6/2014
62.1874
62.2094
62.1598
62.156
62.156
62.0489
62.1332
62.0098
61.4648
61.2622
60.896
60.896
60.7952
60.8489
61.1038
61.6358
61.9697
62.025
62.025
61.7928
61.5728
61.6118
62.0121
62.0045
61.87
61.87
61.7324
61.6022
61.578
61.7101
61.7633
61.753
61.753
61.7744
61.6312
61.587
61.8503
62.1569
62.115
62.115
62.36365833
62.33325833
62.29874167
62.277225
62.28655
62.27044167
62.2254
62.16925
62.10105
62.01598333
61.90246667
61.79829167
61.682275
61.5689
61.4809
61.43755
61.422025
61.42003333
61.41101667
61.39293333
61.40193333
61.43106667
61.524075
61.61645
61.70601667
61.79110833
61.84349167
61.84069167
61.80805
61.78180833
61.76
61.75668333
61.7717
61.78525
61.75350833
61.71871667
61.717075
61.74098333
61.77286667
61.8156
PAGE 68 OF 221
62.58902917
62.60406667
62.62220833
62.62582917
62.6154125
62.58595833
62.54375833
62.49641667
62.41809583
62.3161
62.204975
62.1124125
62.02296667
61.95107917
61.88982083
61.8573875
61.8542875
61.8452375
61.81820833
61.78109167
61.75149167
61.723525
61.71327083
61.70737083
61.69414583
61.68000417
61.66219583
61.63912083
61.6150375
61.60092083
61.58550833
61.57480833
61.58681667
61.60815833
61.63879167
61.66758333
61.71154583
61.76604583
61.80817917
61.82814583
1/7/2014
1/8/2014
1/9/2014
1/10/2014
1/11/2014
1/12/2014
1/13/2014
1/14/2014
1/15/2014
1/16/2014
1/17/2014
1/18/2014
1/19/2014
1/20/2014
1/21/2014
1/22/2014
1/23/2014
1/24/2014
1/25/2014
1/26/2014
1/27/2014
1/28/2014
1/29/2014
1/30/2014
1/31/2014
2/1/2014
2/2/2014
2/3/2014
2/4/2014
2/5/2014
2/6/2014
2/7/2014
2/8/2014
2/9/2014
2/10/2014
2/11/2014
2/12/2014
2/13/2014
2/14/2014
2/15/2014
62.1833
62.1409
61.9514
61.8571
61.502
61.154
61.154
61.1427
61.1853
61.2565
61.2253
61.1986
61.329
61.329
61.3212
61.4709
61.6566
61.7196
62.2043
62.558
62.558
62.8832
62.8105
62.4372
62.6118
62.4638
62.382
62.382
62.555
62.4971
62.2764
62.1718
62.0184
61.845
61.845
62.0598
62.0588
61.8099
61.9246
61.8395
61.86604167
61.90194167
61.91761667
61.92629167
61.905375
61.853675
61.81390833
61.77688333
61.72146667
61.64643333
61.57229167
61.495925
61.42473333
61.357075
61.30455833
61.272375
61.28525833
61.33239167
61.41991667
61.53785833
61.65225
61.78780833
61.91990833
62.023125
62.130025
62.22459167
62.31299167
62.38891667
62.46378333
62.528575
62.53458333
62.5024
62.45743333
62.37091667
62.29045833
62.25900833
62.212925
62.15843333
62.12031667
62.07510833
PAGE 69 OF 221
61.83704583
61.841875
61.83880833
61.8414875
61.8385375
61.8194625
61.78370833
61.7478
61.71927083
61.69370833
61.67257917
61.6557625
61.6453875
61.62950833
61.6110875
61.59933333
61.59531667
61.59303333
61.6169125
61.65737083
61.68685833
61.71712083
61.7461
61.759525
61.77737917
61.79083333
61.808775
61.83064583
61.87452083
61.93048333
61.97725
62.02012917
62.05484167
62.0793625
62.10518333
62.14106667
62.171475
62.1915125
62.21665417
62.2320125
2/16/2014
2/17/2014
2/18/2014
2/19/2014
2/20/2014
2/21/2014
2/22/2014
2/23/2014
2/24/2014
2/25/2014
2/26/2014
2/27/2014
2/28/2014
61.62
61.62
61.661
61.8343
62.0191
62.0866
61.8692
61.752
61.752
61.812
61.7032
61.7926
61.9061
61.99719167
61.9241
61.87281667
61.84469167
61.84475
61.86488333
61.8669
61.84125
61.81568333
61.81585833
61.79740833
61.7935
61.81734167
PAGE 70 OF 221
62.2304875
62.2263375
62.2037
62.17354583
62.15109167
62.1179
62.07867917
62.05012917
62.01430417
61.98714583
61.9588625
61.93430417
61.90726667
PRICE
Close
12 Days Moving Avg.
DAYS
50
40
30
Close
20
10
0
DAYS
PAGE 71 OF 221
The above chart shows the MACD of the closing price of USD/INR along with its Japanese
Candlestick Chart in the year starting from 1/3/2013 to 28/2/2014.
X-axis shows the DAYS and Y-axis
axis indicates the CLOSING PRICE of the currency.
Our Technical Analysis of the above chart indicates the following:
1) The C formation will take place around the price INR 62.375, according to the Fibonacci
Ratio of 61.80%.
2) So, it is advisable for the investor to sell his/her Dollars when it reaches the above rate
i.e. 62.375 after the appearance of Bearish signal.
3) The D formation will take place around the price INR 58.765, according to the Fibonacci
Ratio of 61.80%.
4) So, it is advisable to buy Dollars when it reaches to that point i.e. 58.765.
5) Upward penetration of a falling average indicates further rise and gives buy
signal so the chart shows buy signal in the mid of October at point B
B and
downward penetration of rising average indicates the possibility of further fall
so it shows sell signal at the mid of November at the Point C as per our
technical analysis.
6) In the same way, buy Dollars in the mid of March at B, so that when we reach
r
the point
C at 62.375 we can square off the investment and earn profits.
PAGE 72 OF 221
100
1+RS
RS =
Date
Close
Change
Gain
Loss
3/1/2013
3/2/2013
3/3/2013
3/4/2013
3/5/2013
3/6/2013
3/7/2013
3/8/2013
3/9/2013
3/10/2013
3/11/2013
3/12/2013
3/13/2013
3/14/2013
3/15/2013
3/16/2013
3/17/2013
3/18/2013
3/19/2013
3/20/2013
3/21/2013
3/22/2013
3/23/2013
3/24/2013
3/25/2013
3/26/2013
3/27/2013
54.0886
54.8147
55.031
55.031
55.0276
54.8367
54.7724
54.5955
54.3718
54.214
54.214
54.3302
54.2029
54.2131
54.1965
54.0234
53.907
53.907
54.091
54.2245
54.3709
54.2794
54.319
54.219
54.219
54.1574
54.2331
0.7261
0.2163
0
-0.0034
-0.1909
-0.0643
-0.1769
-0.2237
-0.1578
0
0.1162
-0.1273
0.0102
-0.0166
-0.1731
-0.1164
0
0.184
0.1335
0.1464
-0.0915
0.0396
-0.1
0
-0.0616
0.0757
0.7261
0.2163
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.1162
0
0.0102
0
0
0
0
0.184
0.1335
0.1464
0
0.0396
0
0
0
0.0757
0
0
0
0.0034
0.1909
0.0643
0.1769
0.2237
0.1578
0
0
0.1273
0
0.0166
0.1731
0.1164
0
0
0
0
0.0915
0
0.1
0
0.0616
0
0.13462857
0.0309
0
0
0.0166
0.0166
0.01805714
0.01805714
0.01805714
0.01805714
0.01805714
0.02774286
0.04681429
0.06627143
0.06627143
0.07192857
0.07192857
0.07192857
0.04564286
0.03738571
PAGE 73 OF 221
0.06221429
0.09417143
0.11671429
0.11671429
0.11622857
0.10714286
0.09795714
0.07505714
0.06782857
0.06191429
0.06191429
0.06191429
0.04372857
0.04372857
0.05442857
0.0297
0.02735714
0.02735714
0.03615714
0.03615714
RS
7 Day RSI
2.163949
0.328125
0
0
0.142822
0.154933
0.184337
0.240579
0.266217
0.291647
0.291647
0.448085
1.070565
1.515518
1.217585
2.421837
2.629243
2.629243
1.262347
1.033979
68.3939328
24.7058824
0
0
12.4973112
13.4149157
15.5645856
19.3924517
21.0246174
22.5794927
22.5794927
30.943276
51.7040076
60.2467532
54.905906
70.7759348
72.4460432
72.4460432
55.7981139
50.8352758
3/28/2013
3/29/2013
3/30/2013
3/31/2013
4/1/2013
4/2/2013
4/3/2013
4/4/2013
4/5/2013
4/6/2013
4/7/2013
4/8/2013
4/9/2013
4/10/2013
4/11/2013
4/12/2013
4/13/2013
4/14/2013
4/15/2013
4/16/2013
4/17/2013
4/18/2013
4/19/2013
4/20/2013
4/21/2013
4/22/2013
4/23/2013
4/24/2013
4/25/2013
4/26/2013
4/27/2013
4/28/2013
4/29/2013
4/30/2013
5/1/2013
5/2/2013
5/3/2013
5/4/2013
5/5/2013
5/6/2013
54.3481
54.3235
54.4017
54.355
54.355
54.4318
54.3201
54.3874
54.6846
54.7406
54.567
54.567
54.6022
54.3947
54.3052
54.2266
54.3476
54.378
54.378
54.4418
54.1282
53.8088
53.8016
53.681
53.565
53.565
53.8367
54.0697
54.0494
53.9299
54.0368
54.078
54.078
54.0423
53.6469
53.2942
53.4149
53.5262
53.362
53.362
0.115
-0.0246
0.0782
-0.0467
0
0.0768
-0.1117
0.0673
0.2972
0.056
-0.1736
0
0.0352
-0.2075
-0.0895
-0.0786
0.121
0.0304
0
0.0638
-0.3136
-0.3194
-0.0072
-0.1206
-0.116
0
0.2717
0.233
-0.0203
-0.1195
0.1069
0.0412
0
-0.0357
-0.3954
-0.3527
0.1207
0.1113
-0.1642
0
0.115
0
0.0782
0
0
0.0768
0
0.0673
0.2972
0.056
0
0
0.0352
0
0
0
0.121
0.0304
0
0.0638
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.2717
0.233
0
0
0.1069
0.0412
0
0
0
0
0.1207
0.1113
0
0
0
0.0246
0
0.0467
0
0
0.1117
0
0
0
0.1736
0
0
0.2075
0.0895
0.0786
0
0
0
0
0.3136
0.3194
0.0072
0.1206
0.116
0
0
0
0.0203
0.1195
0
0
0
0.0357
0.3954
0.3527
0
0
0.1642
0
0.0329
0.0329
0.03841429
0.03841429
0.03841429
0.04938571
0.03857143
0.03175714
0.07421429
0.07104286
0.07104286
0.07104286
0.0651
0.0651
0.05548571
0.01302857
0.02231429
0.02665714
0.02665714
0.03074286
0.03074286
0.03074286
0.03074286
0.01345714
0.00911429
0.00911429
0.03881429
0.0721
0.0721
0.0721
0.08737143
0.09325714
0.09325714
0.05444286
0.02115714
0.02115714
0.0384
0.03902857
0.03314286
0.03314286
PAGE 74 OF 221
0.03615714
0.0266
0.0266
0.01898571
0.01898571
0.01018571
0.02614286
0.02614286
0.02262857
0.02262857
0.04075714
0.04075714
0.04075714
0.05444286
0.06722857
0.07845714
0.07845714
0.05365714
0.05365714
0.05365714
0.06881429
0.10165714
0.09145714
0.10868571
0.12525714
0.12525714
0.12525714
0.08045714
0.03772857
0.05377143
0.03654286
0.01997143
0.01997143
0.02507143
0.08155714
0.12904286
0.11197143
0.11197143
0.13542857
0.13542857
0.909917
1.236842
1.444146
2.023326
2.023326
4.848527
1.47541
1.214754
3.279672
3.13952
1.743077
1.743077
1.597266
1.195749
0.825329
0.16606
0.284414
0.496805
0.496805
0.57295
0.446751
0.302417
0.336145
0.123817
0.072765
0.072765
0.309877
0.896129
1.911019
1.340861
2.39093
4.669528
4.669528
2.17151
0.259415
0.163954
0.342945
0.348558
0.244726
0.244726
47.6417046
55.2941176
59.0859152
66.9238427
66.9238427
82.9016787
59.602649
54.8482605
76.6337218
75.842611
63.5445949
63.5445949
61.4979757
54.457457
45.2153667
14.2410993
22.1434647
33.1910352
33.1910352
36.4251862
30.8796097
23.2196806
25.1578209
11.0175439
6.78290453
6.78290453
23.6569438
47.2609795
65.6477627
57.2806719
70.5095688
82.3618471
82.3618471
68.4692778
20.5980529
14.0859806
25.5367661
25.846736
19.6610169
19.6610169
5/7/2013
5/8/2013
5/9/2013
5/10/2013
5/11/2013
5/12/2013
5/13/2013
5/14/2013
5/15/2013
5/16/2013
5/17/2013
5/18/2013
5/19/2013
5/20/2013
5/21/2013
5/22/2013
5/23/2013
5/24/2013
5/25/2013
5/26/2013
5/27/2013
5/28/2013
5/29/2013
5/30/2013
5/31/2013
6/1/2013
6/2/2013
6/3/2013
6/4/2013
6/5/2013
6/6/2013
6/7/2013
6/8/2013
6/9/2013
6/10/2013
6/11/2013
6/12/2013
6/13/2013
6/14/2013
6/15/2013
53.7084
53.8485
53.7594
53.9723
54.4744
54.509
54.509
54.6607
54.5447
54.6132
54.5846
54.7645
54.892
54.892
54.9119
55.0663
55.4488
55.7182
55.6269
55.735
55.735
55.6047
55.8116
56.182
56.264
56.5465
56.627
56.627
56.5493
56.4517
56.5995
56.8305
56.9546
57.258
57.258
57.7717
58.3346
57.9382
58.0236
57.5799
0.3464
0.1401
-0.0891
0.2129
0.5021
0.0346
0
0.1517
-0.116
0.0685
-0.0286
0.1799
0.1275
0
0.0199
0.1544
0.3825
0.2694
-0.0913
0.1081
0
-0.1303
0.2069
0.3704
0.082
0.2825
0.0805
0
-0.0777
-0.0976
0.1478
0.231
0.1241
0.3034
0
0.5137
0.5629
-0.3964
0.0854
-0.4437
0.3464
0.1401
0
0.2129
0.5021
0.0346
0
0.1517
0
0.0685
0
0.1799
0.1275
0
0.0199
0.1544
0.3825
0.2694
0
0.1081
0
0
0.2069
0.3704
0.082
0.2825
0.0805
0
0
0
0.1478
0.231
0.1241
0.3034
0
0.5137
0.5629
0
0.0854
0
0
0
0.0891
0
0
0
0
0
0.116
0
0.0286
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0913
0
0
0.1303
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0777
0.0976
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.3964
0
0.4437
0.08262857
0.10264286
0.10264286
0.11581429
0.17164286
0.17658571
0.17658571
0.14877143
0.12875714
0.13854286
0.10812857
0.0621
0.07537143
0.07537143
0.05654286
0.0786
0.12345714
0.16194286
0.13624286
0.13347143
0.13347143
0.13062857
0.13812857
0.1364
0.10962857
0.14998571
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-0.3701
0.1981
0.4315
0
0.2191
0.3219
0.1277
0
0
0.0122
0
0.3473
0.0482
0
0.0391
0.0061
0
0
0.0629
0.0163
0
0.1763
0.6223
0.0741
0
0
0
0.3447
0.3369
0.3498
0.3902
0
0.1985
0.3656
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.1981
0.4315
0
0
0
0
0.4193
0.1016
0
0
0
0
0.0677
0
0
0.045
0
0
0
0.1689
0
0
0
0
0.0195
0.1241
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.1471
0.4455
0.1756
0.3677
0.0002
0.1598
0.3701
0
0
0.08105714
0.06662857
0.09567143
0.09552857
0.09552857
0.09552857
0.09727143
0.09727143
0.11558571
0.07648571
0.05824286
0.06382857
0.0647
0.06295714
0.06295714
0.02232857
0.01777143
0.01777143
0.03737143
0.1254
0.13598571
0.13598571
0.127
0.12467143
0.17391429
0.19685714
0.15792857
0.20308571
0.20308571
0.23144286
0.28367143
0.23442857
0.1863
0.13632857
0.08058571
0.08058571
0.05222857
0
0.0283
0.08994286
PAGE 79 OF 221
0.1402
0.1402
0.1402
0.1402
0.15742857
0.0863
0.07441429
0.07441429
0.07441429
0.07441429
0.08408571
0.02418571
0.00967143
0.0161
0.0161
0.0161
0.0161
0.03055714
0.03055714
0.03055714
0.02412857
0.02412857
0.02691429
0.04464286
0.02051429
0.02051429
0.02051429
0.02051429
0.02051429
0.01772857
0
0.02101429
0.08465714
0.10974286
0.16227143
0.1623
0.18512857
0.238
0.21698571
0.15334286
0.578154
0.475239
0.682393
0.681374
0.606806
1.106936
1.307161
1.307161
1.553273
1.027836
0.692661
2.639102
6.689808
3.910382
3.910382
1.386868
1.103815
0.58158
1.223001
4.103787
5.635879
5.635879
4.718684
2.79264
8.477716
9.5961
7.698468
9.899721
9.899721
13.05479
0
11.15568
2.200641
1.242255
0.496611
0.496523
0.282121
0
0.130423
0.586547
36.634814
32.2143943
40.5608382
40.5248167
37.7647258
52.5377121
56.6566816
56.6566816
60.8345865
50.686358
40.9214092
72.5206947
86.9957741
79.6349837
79.6349837
58.1040892
52.4673134
36.7720958
55.0157729
80.4067051
84.9304069
84.9304069
82.5134583
73.6331421
89.4489346
90.5625657
88.5037227
90.8254536
90.8254536
92.8849903
100
91.7733907
68.7562609
55.4020319
33.1823529
33.1784496
22.0042131
0
11.5375655
36.9700528
11/23/2013
11/24/2013
11/25/2013
11/26/2013
11/27/2013
11/28/2013
11/29/2013
11/30/2013
12/1/2013
12/2/2013
12/3/2013
12/4/2013
12/5/2013
12/6/2013
12/7/2013
12/8/2013
12/9/2013
12/10/2013
12/11/2013
12/12/2013
12/13/2013
12/14/2013
12/15/2013
12/16/2013
12/17/2013
12/18/2013
12/19/2013
12/20/2013
12/21/2013
12/22/2013
12/23/2013
12/24/2013
12/25/2013
12/26/2013
12/27/2013
12/28/2013
12/29/2013
12/30/2013
12/31/2013
1/1/2014
62.6836
62.2832
62.283
62.2582
62.1461
62.1874
62.2094
62.1598
62.156
62.156
62.0489
62.1332
62.0098
61.4648
61.2622
60.896
60.896
60.7952
60.8489
61.1038
61.6358
61.9697
62.025
62.025
61.7928
61.5728
61.6118
62.0121
62.0045
61.87
61.87
61.7324
61.6022
61.578
61.7101
61.7633
61.753
61.753
61.7744
61.6312
0.0099
-0.4004
-0.0002
-0.0248
-0.1121
0.0413
0.022
-0.0496
-0.0038
0
-0.1071
0.0843
-0.1234
-0.545
-0.2026
-0.3662
0
-0.1008
0.0537
0.2549
0.532
0.3339
0.0553
0
-0.2322
-0.22
0.039
0.4003
-0.0076
-0.1345
0
-0.1376
-0.1302
-0.0242
0.1321
0.0532
-0.0103
0
0.0214
-0.1432
0.0099
0
0
0
0
0.0413
0.022
0
0
0
0
0.0843
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0537
0.2549
0.532
0.3339
0.0553
0
0
0
0.039
0.4003
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.1321
0.0532
0
0
0.0214
0
0
0.4004
0.0002
0.0248
0.1121
0
0
0.0496
0.0038
0
0.1071
0
0.1234
0.545
0.2026
0.3662
0
0.1008
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.2322
0.22
0
0
0.0076
0.1345
0
0.1376
0.1302
0.0242
0
0
0.0103
0
0
0.1432
0.09135714
0.09135714
0.09135714
0.09135714
0.09135714
0.06895714
0.01045714
0.00904286
0.00904286
0.00904286
0.00904286
0.02108571
0.01518571
0.01204286
0.01204286
0.01204286
0.01204286
0.01204286
0.00767143
0.04408571
0.12008571
0.16778571
0.17568571
0.17568571
0.17568571
0.16801429
0.13717143
0.11835714
0.07065714
0.06275714
0.06275714
0.06275714
0.06275714
0.05718571
0.01887143
0.02647143
0.02647143
0.02647143
0.02952857
0.02952857
PAGE 80 OF 221
0.12825714
0.13292857
0.13292857
0.11364286
0.07678571
0.07678571
0.07678571
0.08387143
0.02721429
0.02718571
0.03894286
0.02292857
0.04055714
0.11841429
0.14027143
0.19204286
0.19204286
0.19114286
0.19114286
0.17351429
0.09565714
0.06671429
0.0144
0.0144
0.03317143
0.0646
0.0646
0.0646
0.06568571
0.0849
0.0849
0.07138571
0.05855714
0.06201429
0.06201429
0.06092857
0.04318571
0.04318571
0.02352857
0.02538571
0.712297
0.687265
0.687265
0.803897
1.189767
0.898047
0.136186
0.107818
0.332283
0.332633
0.232208
0.919626
0.374428
0.101701
0.085854
0.062709
0.062709
0.063004
0.040135
0.254075
1.255376
2.514989
12.2004
12.2004
5.296296
2.60084
2.123397
1.832154
1.075685
0.739189
0.739189
0.879127
1.071725
0.922138
0.304308
0.434467
0.612967
0.612967
1.255009
1.163196
41.5989072
40.7324841
40.7324841
44.5644599
54.3330501
47.3142521
11.9862453
9.73247232
24.9408983
24.9605678
18.8448943
47.9065239
27.2424398
9.23127464
7.90658413
5.90088198
5.90088198
5.92701962
3.85859021
20.259979
55.6615018
71.5504112
92.4244702
92.4244702
84.1176471
72.2287048
67.9835741
64.6911845
51.823135
42.501935
42.501935
46.7838126
51.731041
47.9745925
23.3309785
30.2876757
38.002461
38.002461
55.6542811
53.7721124
1/2/2014
1/3/2014
1/4/2014
1/5/2014
1/6/2014
1/7/2014
1/8/2014
1/9/2014
1/10/2014
1/11/2014
1/12/2014
1/13/2014
1/14/2014
1/15/2014
1/16/2014
1/17/2014
1/18/2014
1/19/2014
1/20/2014
1/21/2014
1/22/2014
1/23/2014
1/24/2014
1/25/2014
1/26/2014
1/27/2014
1/28/2014
1/29/2014
1/30/2014
1/31/2014
2/1/2014
2/2/2014
2/3/2014
2/4/2014
2/5/2014
2/6/2014
2/7/2014
2/8/2014
2/9/2014
2/10/2014
61.587
61.8503
62.1569
62.115
62.115
62.1833
62.1409
61.9514
61.8571
61.502
61.154
61.154
61.1427
61.1853
61.2565
61.2253
61.1986
61.329
61.329
61.3212
61.4709
61.6566
61.7196
62.2043
62.558
62.558
62.8832
62.8105
62.4372
62.6118
62.4638
62.382
62.382
62.555
62.4971
62.2764
62.1718
62.0184
61.845
61.845
-0.0442
0.2633
0.3066
-0.0419
0
0.0683
-0.0424
-0.1895
-0.0943
-0.3551
-0.348
0
-0.0113
0.0426
0.0712
-0.0312
-0.0267
0.1304
0
-0.0078
0.1497
0.1857
0.063
0.4847
0.3537
0
0.3252
-0.0727
-0.3733
0.1746
-0.148
-0.0818
0
0.173
-0.0579
-0.2207
-0.1046
-0.1534
-0.1734
0
0
0.2633
0.3066
0
0
0.0683
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0426
0.0712
0
0
0.1304
0
0
0.1497
0.1857
0.063
0.4847
0.3537
0
0.3252
0
0
0.1746
0
0
0
0.173
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0442
0
0
0.0419
0
0
0.0424
0.1895
0.0943
0.3551
0.348
0
0.0113
0
0
0.0312
0.0267
0
0
0.0078
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0727
0.3733
0
0.148
0.0818
0
0
0.0579
0.2207
0.1046
0.1534
0.1734
0
0.02952857
0.04827143
0.08447143
0.08447143
0.08447143
0.09117143
0.09117143
0.09117143
0.05355714
0.00975714
0.00975714
0.00975714
0
0.00608571
0.01625714
0.01625714
0.01625714
0.03488571
0.03488571
0.03488571
0.05018571
0.06654286
0.07554286
0.14478571
0.17668571
0.17668571
0.22314286
0.20175714
0.17522857
0.19117143
0.12192857
0.0714
0.0714
0.04965714
0.04965714
0.04965714
0.02471429
0.02471429
0.02471429
0.02471429
PAGE 81 OF 221
0.02824286
0.02824286
0.02824286
0.03275714
0.03275714
0.03275714
0.01835714
0.03911429
0.05258571
0.10331429
0.14704286
0.14704286
0.14865714
0.1426
0.11552857
0.10651429
0.0596
0.00988571
0.00988571
0.00938571
0.00938571
0.00938571
0.00492857
0.00111429
0.00111429
0.00111429
0
0.01038571
0.06371429
0.06371429
0.08485714
0.09654286
0.09654286
0.09654286
0.09442857
0.07262857
0.08757143
0.08834286
0.10142857
0.10142857
1.045524
1.709155
2.990895
2.578718
2.578718
2.783253
4.966537
2.330898
1.018473
0.094441
0.066356
0.066356
0
0.042677
0.14072
0.152629
0.272771
3.528902
3.528902
3.716895
5.347032
7.089802
15.32754
129.9359
158.5641
158.5641
0
19.42641
2.750224
3.000448
1.436869
0.739568
0.739568
0.514353
0.52587
0.683714
0.282219
0.279754
0.243662
0.243662
51.1127596
63.0881255
74.9429658
72.0570314
72.0570314
73.5677233
83.2398591
69.9780702
50.4576043
8.62918509
6.22266764
6.22266764
0
4.09300538
12.3360434
13.2417966
21.4312618
77.9195916
77.9195916
78.7996128
84.2446043
87.6387582
93.8753772
99.2362675
99.3732926
99.3732926
100
95.1043771
73.3349277
75.0028024
58.9637306
42.5144607
42.5144607
33.965214
34.4636129
40.6074766
22.0101781
21.8599949
19.592299
19.592299
2/11/2014
2/12/2014
2/13/2014
2/14/2014
2/15/2014
2/16/2014
2/17/2014
2/18/2014
2/19/2014
2/20/2014
2/21/2014
2/22/2014
2/23/2014
2/24/2014
2/25/2014
2/26/2014
2/27/2014
2/28/2014
62.0598
62.0588
61.8099
61.9246
61.8395
61.62
61.62
61.661
61.8343
62.0191
62.0866
61.8692
61.752
61.752
61.812
61.7032
61.7926
61.9061
0.2148
-0.001
-0.2489
0.1147
-0.0851
-0.2195
0
0.041
0.1733
0.1848
0.0675
-0.2174
-0.1172
0
0.06
-0.1088
0.0894
0.1135
0.2148
0
0
0.1147
0
0
0
0.041
0.1733
0.1848
0.0675
0
0
0
0.06
0
0.0894
0.1135
0
0.001
0.2489
0
0.0851
0.2195
0
0
0
0
0
0.2174
0.1172
0
0
0.1088
0
0
0.03068571
0.03068571
0.03068571
0.04707143
0.04707143
0.04707143
0.04707143
0.02224286
0.047
0.0734
0.06665714
0.06665714
0.06665714
0.06665714
0.06937143
0.04461429
0.03098571
0.03755714
0.10142857
0.0933
0.09732857
0.08238571
0.07262857
0.07921429
0.07921429
0.07921429
0.07907143
0.04351429
0.04351429
0.06241429
0.0478
0.0478
0.0478
0.06334286
0.06334286
0.06334286
0.302535
0.328893
0.31528
0.571354
0.648112
0.594229
0.594229
0.280794
0.594399
1.686802
1.531845
1.067979
1.394501
1.394501
1.451285
0.70433
0.489175
0.592918
23.2266436
24.7493951
23.970539
36.3606268
39.3245017
37.2737557
37.2737557
21.9234019
37.2804533
62.7810362
60.503112
51.6436082
58.2376435
58.2376435
59.2050719
41.325923
32.8487051
37.2221436
7 Day USD/INR
120
100
RSI
80
60
40
7 Day RSI
20
0
DAYS
PAGE 82 OF 221
1) Varying the time period of the Relative Strength Index can increase or decrease the number of buy
and sell signals. So, lesser the time period of RSI, higher the appearance of signals.
2) The chart shows Overbought Regions when RSI crosses mark of 70:
12th November, 2013 and 27th January, 2014. It gives an indication to sell.
3) The chart shows Oversold Regions when RSI crosses mark of 30:
9th December, 2013 and 10th March, 2014. It gives an indication to buy.
4) Since it is nearing the mark of 30, it is highly predicted that it will reach the Oversold
Region soon. And thus, gives an indication to buy dollars currently and hold them till
point C is reached.
PAGE 83 OF 221
DATE
CLOSE
3/1/2013
3/2/2013
3/3/2013
3/4/2013
3/5/2013
3/6/2013
3/7/2013
3/8/2013
3/9/2013
3/10/2013
3/11/2013
3/12/2013
3/13/2013
3/14/2013
3/15/2013
3/16/2013
3/17/2013
3/18/2013
3/19/2013
3/20/2013
3/21/2013
3/22/2013
3/23/2013
3/24/2013
3/25/2013
3/26/2013
3/27/2013
3/28/2013
3/29/2013
ROC
54.0886
54.8147
55.031
55.031
55.0276
54.8367
54.7724
54.5955
54.3718
54.214
54.214
54.3302
54.2029
54.2131
54.1965
54.0234
53.907
53.907
54.091
54.2245
54.3709
54.2794
54.319
54.219
54.219
54.1574
54.2331
54.3481
54.3235
PAGE 84 OF 221
1.264222
-0.39989
-1.19787
-1.48462
-1.47853
-0.92365
-1.03976
-0.70042
-0.32241
-0.35157
-0.56627
-0.77894
-0.20645
0.021028
0.321792
0.473869
0.764279
0.578775
0.236638
-0.12374
-0.25344
0.126567
0.008284
3/30/2013
3/31/2013
4/1/2013
4/2/2013
4/3/2013
4/4/2013
4/5/2013
4/6/2013
4/7/2013
4/8/2013
4/9/2013
4/10/2013
4/11/2013
4/12/2013
4/13/2013
4/14/2013
4/15/2013
4/16/2013
4/17/2013
4/18/2013
4/19/2013
4/20/2013
4/21/2013
4/22/2013
4/23/2013
4/24/2013
4/25/2013
4/26/2013
4/27/2013
4/28/2013
4/29/2013
4/30/2013
5/1/2013
5/2/2013
5/3/2013
5/4/2013
5/5/2013
5/6/2013
5/7/2013
5/8/2013
54.4017
54.355
54.355
54.4318
54.3201
54.3874
54.6846
54.7406
54.567
54.567
54.6022
54.3947
54.3052
54.2266
54.3476
54.378
54.378
54.4418
54.1282
53.8088
53.8016
53.681
53.565
53.565
53.8367
54.0697
54.0494
53.9299
54.0368
54.078
54.078
54.0423
53.6469
53.2942
53.4149
53.5262
53.362
53.362
53.7084
53.8485
PAGE 85 OF 221
0.336967
0.250835
0.364862
0.366381
-0.05152
0.117629
0.520021
0.70941
0.390029
0.248384
0.519329
0.013422
-0.6938
-0.93897
-0.40207
-0.34636
-0.41061
0.086589
-0.32594
-0.77047
-1.00464
-1.28177
-1.49509
-1.61053
-0.53854
0.484865
0.460581
0.463665
0.880799
0.957715
0.448207
-0.05068
-0.74469
-1.17875
-1.15088
-1.02038
-1.32401
-1.25883
0.114638
1.040076
5/9/2013
5/10/2013
5/11/2013
5/12/2013
5/13/2013
5/14/2013
5/15/2013
5/16/2013
5/17/2013
5/18/2013
5/19/2013
5/20/2013
5/21/2013
5/22/2013
5/23/2013
5/24/2013
5/25/2013
5/26/2013
5/27/2013
5/28/2013
5/29/2013
5/30/2013
5/31/2013
6/1/2013
6/2/2013
6/3/2013
6/4/2013
6/5/2013
6/6/2013
6/7/2013
6/8/2013
6/9/2013
6/10/2013
6/11/2013
6/12/2013
6/13/2013
6/14/2013
6/15/2013
6/16/2013
6/17/2013
53.7594
53.9723
54.4744
54.509
54.509
54.6607
54.5447
54.6132
54.5846
54.7645
54.892
54.892
54.9119
55.0663
55.4488
55.7182
55.6269
55.735
55.735
55.6047
55.8116
56.182
56.264
56.5465
56.627
56.627
56.5493
56.4517
56.5995
56.8305
56.9546
57.258
57.258
57.7717
58.3346
57.9382
58.0236
57.5799
57.559
57.559
PAGE 86 OF 221
0.644951
0.833424
2.08463
2.14947
1.490642
1.508306
1.460768
1.187461
0.202297
0.46873
0.702636
0.423156
0.673209
0.829653
1.58323
1.741457
1.338811
1.535743
1.498946
0.97773
0.654297
0.832403
1.145309
1.455997
1.600431
1.838514
1.321768
0.480047
0.596296
0.502242
0.578523
1.114309
1.253243
2.338282
3.065575
1.949129
1.876934
0.562192
0.525691
-0.36817
6/18/2013
6/19/2013
6/20/2013
6/21/2013
6/22/2013
6/23/2013
6/24/2013
6/25/2013
6/26/2013
6/27/2013
6/28/2013
6/29/2013
6/30/2013
7/1/2013
7/2/2013
7/3/2013
7/4/2013
7/5/2013
7/6/2013
7/7/2013
7/8/2013
7/9/2013
7/10/2013
7/11/2013
7/12/2013
7/13/2013
7/14/2013
7/15/2013
7/16/2013
7/17/2013
7/18/2013
7/19/2013
7/20/2013
7/21/2013
7/22/2013
7/23/2013
7/24/2013
7/25/2013
7/26/2013
7/27/2013
57.7332
58.481
58.8051
59.7909
59.6283
59.659
59.659
59.7964
59.7
60.1731
60.3507
59.6964
59.597
59.597
59.3734
59.4779
60.1035
60.1008
60.464
61.034
61.034
60.8346
60.1043
59.9833
59.7397
59.8839
59.896
59.896
59.7849
59.1504
59.3056
59.6141
59.6554
59.507
59.507
59.4783
59.5731
59.37
59.176
59.0478
PAGE 87 OF 221
-1.03095
0.93686
1.346866
3.839882
3.595094
3.64843
3.335689
2.249278
1.521807
0.639228
1.211505
0.06269
-0.10392
-0.33346
-0.54707
-1.15533
-0.40961
0.677428
1.454771
2.411195
2.796875
2.281015
0.001331
-0.1955
-1.1979
-1.88436
-1.86453
-1.54287
-0.53141
-1.38855
-0.72665
-0.45054
-0.4017
-0.64946
-0.46483
0.55435
0.451054
-0.40947
-0.80362
-0.77167
7/28/2013
7/29/2013
7/30/2013
7/31/2013
8/1/2013
8/2/2013
8/3/2013
8/4/2013
8/5/2013
8/6/2013
8/7/2013
8/8/2013
8/9/2013
8/10/2013
8/11/2013
8/12/2013
8/13/2013
8/14/2013
8/15/2013
8/16/2013
8/17/2013
8/18/2013
8/19/2013
8/20/2013
8/21/2013
8/22/2013
8/23/2013
8/24/2013
8/25/2013
8/26/2013
8/27/2013
8/28/2013
8/29/2013
8/30/2013
8/31/2013
9/1/2013
9/2/2013
9/3/2013
9/4/2013
9/5/2013
59.105
59.105
59.3726
60.3021
61.0818
60.7717
60.9808
61.129
61.129
61.1518
61.5444
61.4922
61.0812
60.6389
60.512
60.512
60.9402
61.4251
61.4451
61.3759
61.9758
62.654
62.654
63.1695
63.8104
64.2165
65.0252
64.4237
64.305
64.305
64.4248
66.1438
67.7732
67.4206
66.8917
66.517
66.517
66.3979
67.5958
67.361
PAGE 88 OF 221
-0.67555
-0.62762
-0.33656
1.569985
3.220562
2.919499
3.173674
3.424414
2.958267
1.409072
0.757345
1.185585
0.164642
-0.80175
-1.00934
-1.04625
-0.98173
-0.10912
0.595764
1.215391
2.419024
3.539794
2.812265
2.839881
3.849453
4.628201
4.920308
2.82456
2.635107
1.797545
0.962852
3.001254
4.226054
4.651859
4.022549
3.439857
3.247507
0.384163
-0.26176
-0.0884
9/6/2013
9/7/2013
9/8/2013
9/9/2013
9/10/2013
9/11/2013
9/12/2013
9/13/2013
9/14/2013
9/15/2013
9/16/2013
9/17/2013
9/18/2013
9/19/2013
9/20/2013
9/21/2013
9/22/2013
9/23/2013
9/24/2013
9/25/2013
9/26/2013
9/27/2013
9/28/2013
9/29/2013
9/30/2013
10/1/2013
10/2/2013
10/3/2013
10/4/2013
10/5/2013
10/6/2013
10/7/2013
10/8/2013
10/9/2013
10/10/2013
10/11/2013
10/12/2013
10/13/2013
10/14/2013
10/15/2013
66.2259
65.3987
64.569
64.569
64.5546
63.9281
63.4803
63.352
63.4603
63.153
63.153
62.7488
63.0729
62.8811
61.4175
61.9308
62.274
62.274
62.3597
62.5169
62.3696
61.8198
62.0309
62.702
62.702
62.5884
62.2802
62.2617
61.6524
61.203
61.011
61.011
61.3311
61.4497
61.5784
61.2797
60.6802
60.597
60.597
60.8161
PAGE 89 OF 221
-0.99534
-1.68122
-2.92857
-2.75445
-4.4991
-5.09627
-4.14581
-3.12957
-1.71708
-2.193
-2.17119
-1.84473
-0.64177
-0.74331
-3.21902
-1.9353
-1.39186
-0.75667
-1.13076
-0.57919
1.55021
-0.17923
-0.39037
0.687285
0.548912
0.114369
-0.14334
0.71482
-0.61018
-2.39067
-2.69688
-2.52028
-1.52392
-1.30417
-0.12003
0.125321
-0.5422
-0.67857
-1.19695
-1.03109
10/16/2013
10/17/2013
10/18/2013
10/19/2013
10/20/2013
10/21/2013
10/22/2013
10/23/2013
10/24/2013
10/25/2013
10/26/2013
10/27/2013
10/28/2013
10/29/2013
10/30/2013
10/31/2013
11/1/2013
11/2/2013
11/3/2013
11/4/2013
11/5/2013
11/6/2013
11/7/2013
11/8/2013
11/9/2013
11/10/2013
11/11/2013
11/12/2013
11/13/2013
11/14/2013
11/15/2013
11/16/2013
11/17/2013
11/18/2013
11/19/2013
11/20/2013
11/21/2013
11/22/2013
11/23/2013
11/24/2013
61.138
61.2657
60.8464
60.7448
60.757
60.757
61.1043
61.1525
61.0848
61.1239
61.13
61.085
61.085
61.1479
61.1642
60.9953
61.1716
61.7939
61.868
61.868
61.8485
61.7244
62.0691
62.406
62.7558
63.146
63.146
63.3445
63.7101
63.563
63.1175
62.9419
62.5742
62.574
62.4142
62.0441
62.2422
62.6737
62.6836
62.2832
PAGE 90 OF 221
-0.71519
-0.02285
0.273895
0.243906
0.264039
-0.09718
-0.05512
-0.18477
0.391806
0.624086
0.613921
0.539855
-0.03159
-0.00752
0.129983
-0.21039
0.068052
1.160514
1.28182
1.177637
1.118792
1.195338
1.467184
0.990551
1.434991
2.065688
2.097868
2.624732
2.643828
1.853988
0.576361
-0.32322
-0.90552
-1.21636
-2.03406
-2.3896
-1.38678
-0.42611
0.174832
-0.46473
11/25/2013
11/26/2013
11/27/2013
11/28/2013
11/29/2013
11/30/2013
12/1/2013
12/2/2013
12/3/2013
12/4/2013
12/5/2013
12/6/2013
12/7/2013
12/8/2013
12/9/2013
12/10/2013
12/11/2013
12/12/2013
12/13/2013
12/14/2013
12/15/2013
12/16/2013
12/17/2013
12/18/2013
12/19/2013
12/20/2013
12/21/2013
12/22/2013
12/23/2013
12/24/2013
12/25/2013
12/26/2013
12/27/2013
12/28/2013
12/29/2013
12/30/2013
12/31/2013
1/1/2014
1/2/2014
1/3/2014
62.283
62.2582
62.1461
62.1874
62.2094
62.1598
62.156
62.156
62.0489
62.1332
62.0098
61.4648
61.2622
60.896
60.896
60.7952
60.8489
61.1038
61.6358
61.9697
62.025
62.025
61.7928
61.5728
61.6118
62.0121
62.0045
61.87
61.87
61.7324
61.6022
61.578
61.7101
61.7633
61.753
61.753
61.7744
61.6312
61.587
61.8503
PAGE 91 OF 221
-0.21021
0.345077
-0.1544
-0.77592
-0.7565
-0.19813
-0.20391
-0.16416
-0.15641
-0.08716
-0.32085
-1.11809
-1.43799
-2.02716
-1.85805
-2.15344
-1.87212
-0.58733
0.609838
1.76317
1.853981
2.022857
1.551219
0.767546
-0.03894
0.068421
-0.03305
-0.2499
0.124934
0.259205
-0.01558
-0.70002
-0.4748
-0.17246
-0.18911
0.03337
0.279535
0.086394
-0.19948
0.14086
1/4/2014
1/5/2014
1/6/2014
1/7/2014
1/8/2014
1/9/2014
1/10/2014
1/11/2014
1/12/2014
1/13/2014
1/14/2014
1/15/2014
1/16/2014
1/17/2014
1/18/2014
1/19/2014
1/20/2014
1/21/2014
1/22/2014
1/23/2014
1/24/2014
1/25/2014
1/26/2014
1/27/2014
1/28/2014
1/29/2014
1/30/2014
1/31/2014
2/1/2014
2/2/2014
2/3/2014
2/4/2014
2/5/2014
2/6/2014
2/7/2014
2/8/2014
2/9/2014
2/10/2014
2/11/2014
2/12/2014
62.1569
62.115
62.115
62.1833
62.1409
61.9514
61.8571
61.502
61.154
61.154
61.1427
61.1853
61.2565
61.2253
61.1986
61.329
61.329
61.3212
61.4709
61.6566
61.7196
62.2043
62.558
62.558
62.8832
62.8105
62.4372
62.6118
62.4638
62.382
62.382
62.555
62.4971
62.2764
62.1718
62.0184
61.845
61.845
62.0598
62.0588
PAGE 92 OF 221
0.654057
0.586206
0.551361
0.895813
0.899378
0.163459
-0.48233
-0.98688
-1.54713
-1.65527
-1.60635
-1.23661
-0.97095
-0.4499
0.072931
0.286163
0.304697
0.222112
0.350004
0.704447
0.851327
1.42722
2.003946
2.016921
2.29751
1.871495
1.162678
0.655099
-0.15058
-0.28134
-0.79703
-0.40678
0.095936
-0.53568
-0.46747
-0.58286
-0.86083
-1.135
-0.69971
-0.34941
2/13/2014
2/14/2014
2/15/2014
2/16/2014
2/17/2014
2/18/2014
2/19/2014
2/20/2014
2/21/2014
2/22/2014
2/23/2014
2/24/2014
2/25/2014
2/26/2014
2/27/2014
2/28/2014
61.8099
61.9246
61.8395
61.62
61.62
61.661
61.8343
62.0191
62.0866
61.8692
61.752
61.752
61.812
61.7032
61.7926
61.9061
-0.5821
-0.15125
-0.00889
-0.36381
-0.70867
-0.641
0.039476
0.152605
0.399583
0.404414
0.214216
0.147581
-0.03606
-0.50936
-0.47353
0.059642
ROC- USD/INR
6
Value
ROC
-2
-4
-6
Days
PAGE 93 OF 221
Many traders use a value greater than zero to indicate an increase in upward momentum and a
value less than zero to indicate an increase in selling pressure. However, some of the most
valuable signals are generated when the price of the asset and the ROC are heading in opposite
directions (known as divergence).
After this high and low, the RATE OF CHANGE is somewhat consistent for the past 5-6
5 months.
PAGE 94 OF 221
EUR/INR
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
THE ABOVE CHART SHOWS THE TREND OF INR AGAINST EUR SINCE 2004 TILL 2014.
PAGE 95 OF 221
PAGE 96 OF 221
Close
70.9637
71.4865
71.6416
71.6416
71.5822
71.4753
71.3937
71.1287
71.0346
70.4945
70.495
70.6608
70.6145
70.4976
70.2587
70.4395
70.4769
70.4769
69.9412
70.1188
70.1743
70.1452
70.2644
70.4061
70.4061
70.2129
69.7562
69.6482
69.5227
69.7315
69.663
69.663
69.7549
12 Days Moving
Avg.
24 Days Moving
Avg.
71.16651667
71.13741667
71.05500833
70.93976667
70.83959167
70.74748333
70.66428333
70.54324167
70.45908333
70.38739167
70.35828333
70.33906667
70.31784167
70.300475
70.27675
70.234875
70.16893333
70.08941667
70.0273
70.00411667
69.96613333
69.93118333
70.74217917
70.71894583
70.66587917
70.58732083
70.5042625
70.41845
70.34579167
70.27367917
70.21260833
70.1592875
PAGE 97 OF 221
4/3/2013
4/4/2013
4/5/2013
4/6/2013
4/7/2013
4/8/2013
4/9/2013
4/10/2013
4/11/2013
4/12/2013
4/13/2013
4/14/2013
4/15/2013
4/16/2013
4/17/2013
4/18/2013
4/19/2013
4/20/2013
4/21/2013
4/22/2013
4/23/2013
4/24/2013
4/25/2013
4/26/2013
4/27/2013
4/28/2013
4/29/2013
4/30/2013
5/1/2013
5/2/2013
5/3/2013
5/4/2013
5/5/2013
5/6/2013
5/7/2013
5/8/2013
5/9/2013
69.7579
69.7421
70.2554
70.922
70.8574
70.8574
70.9921
70.9948
71.0389
70.975
71.1481
71.2798
71.2798
71.2001
70.8993
70.6451
70.2143
70.1611
69.8959
69.8959
70.2811
70.4069
70.2723
70.2858
70.3613
70.4398
70.4398
70.6484
70.3284
70.262
70.1722
70.0824
69.9709
69.9709
70.3715
70.4624
70.541
69.89890833
69.85538333
69.842825
69.88581667
69.939525
70.03129167
70.14328333
70.26595833
70.37490833
70.48424167
70.608
70.735075
70.8619
70.9834
71.03705833
71.01398333
70.96039167
70.90236667
70.81101667
70.71944167
70.65629167
70.60895
70.53596667
70.45313333
70.37659167
70.31323333
70.27494167
70.27521667
70.284725
70.29313333
70.31615833
70.3317
70.30585
70.26951667
70.27778333
70.2925
70.307475
PAGE 98 OF 221
70.12859583
70.097225
70.08033333
70.09314583
70.1081375
70.13308333
70.15610833
70.1776875
70.20110417
70.24417917
70.28706667
70.33312917
70.38040417
70.41939167
70.43994167
70.4499
70.44995833
70.46682917
70.47715
70.4927
70.5156
70.54659583
70.57198333
70.59410417
70.61924583
70.64831667
70.656
70.6446
70.62255833
70.59775
70.5635875
70.52557083
70.48107083
70.43923333
70.406875
70.37281667
70.34203333
5/10/2013
5/11/2013
5/12/2013
5/13/2013
5/14/2013
5/15/2013
5/16/2013
5/17/2013
5/18/2013
5/19/2013
5/20/2013
5/21/2013
5/22/2013
5/23/2013
5/24/2013
5/25/2013
5/26/2013
5/27/2013
5/28/2013
5/29/2013
5/30/2013
5/31/2013
6/1/2013
6/2/2013
6/3/2013
6/4/2013
6/5/2013
6/6/2013
6/7/2013
6/8/2013
6/9/2013
6/10/2013
6/11/2013
6/12/2013
6/13/2013
6/14/2013
6/15/2013
70.8646
70.875
70.7843
70.7843
70.9141
70.8062
70.4374
70.3115
70.3976
70.4594
70.4594
70.5865
70.9507
71.5728
71.7672
71.9467
72.0514
72.0514
71.9158
72.0126
72.4456
73.069
73.5659
73.5789
73.5789
73.6543
73.7869
74.0316
74.6878
75.3879
75.6642
75.6642
76.3418
77.4269
77.118
77.4035
76.8086
70.342875
70.37914167
70.39046667
70.42845833
70.4828
70.53563333
70.56521667
70.5936
70.62915833
70.63648333
70.63623333
70.640025
70.6472
70.70535
70.78725833
70.884125
70.9789
71.08266667
71.20586667
71.347625
71.51829167
71.73575833
71.99463333
72.244
72.46301667
72.636475
72.80478333
72.978525
73.198225
73.47626667
73.78863333
74.09293333
74.41761667
74.780775
75.07678333
75.3955
75.66464167
PAGE 99 OF 221
70.32805417
70.32704167
70.33284167
70.35659167
70.38796667
70.42589583
70.44845833
70.449725
70.4493375
70.45713333
70.46436667
70.47375
70.4950375
70.54224583
70.5888625
70.65629167
70.73085
70.80915
70.88554167
70.9706125
71.073725
71.18612083
71.31543333
71.4420125
71.55510833
71.6709125
71.79602083
71.931325
72.0885625
72.27946667
72.49725
72.72027917
72.96795417
73.25826667
73.53570833
73.81975
74.06382917
6/16/2013
6/17/2013
6/18/2013
6/19/2013
6/20/2013
6/21/2013
6/22/2013
6/23/2013
6/24/2013
6/25/2013
6/26/2013
6/27/2013
6/28/2013
6/29/2013
6/30/2013
7/1/2013
7/2/2013
7/3/2013
7/4/2013
7/5/2013
7/6/2013
7/7/2013
7/8/2013
7/9/2013
7/10/2013
7/11/2013
7/12/2013
7/13/2013
7/14/2013
7/15/2013
7/16/2013
7/17/2013
7/18/2013
7/19/2013
7/20/2013
7/21/2013
7/22/2013
76.7964
76.7964
77.0092
78.2066
78.6947
79.1393
78.6754
78.2565
78.2565
78.3566
78.2763
78.4957
78.6182
77.8525
77.5184
77.5184
77.3927
77.5265
77.9976
77.9477
77.8245
78.2767
78.2767
78.1214
77.1842
76.8752
78.0696
78.236
78.2463
78.2463
78.0391
77.484
77.9116
78.11
78.2947
78.1886
78.1886
75.92648333
76.177275
76.42540833
76.71864167
76.99420833
77.2838
77.53473333
77.69429167
77.763425
77.86664167
77.939375
78.07996667
78.23178333
78.31979167
78.362225
78.304875
78.196375
78.061975
78.00549167
77.97975833
77.94375833
77.9371
77.93713333
77.90594167
77.78644167
77.705
77.75093333
77.81073333
77.88186667
77.94185
77.94530833
77.90666667
77.913925
77.90003333
77.90153333
77.90713333
77.99083333
74.28147917
74.49102917
74.70196667
74.95843333
75.2352375
75.53621667
75.81383333
76.05595417
76.2721
76.4717125
76.6674375
76.87230417
77.07913333
77.24853333
77.39381667
77.51175833
77.59529167
77.6728875
77.7701125
77.837025
77.85359167
77.90187083
77.93825417
77.99295417
78.0091125
78.01239583
78.05657917
78.05780417
78.03912083
78.0019125
77.9754
77.9432125
77.92884167
77.91856667
77.91933333
77.9065375
77.8886375
7/23/2013
7/24/2013
7/25/2013
7/26/2013
7/27/2013
7/28/2013
7/29/2013
7/30/2013
7/31/2013
8/1/2013
8/2/2013
8/3/2013
8/4/2013
8/5/2013
8/6/2013
8/7/2013
8/8/2013
8/9/2013
8/10/2013
8/11/2013
8/12/2013
8/13/2013
8/14/2013
8/15/2013
8/16/2013
8/17/2013
8/18/2013
8/19/2013
8/20/2013
8/21/2013
8/22/2013
8/23/2013
8/24/2013
8/25/2013
8/26/2013
8/27/2013
8/28/2013
78.3234
78.6151
78.4658
78.1999
78.3937
78.4702
78.4702
78.8076
79.9751
81.0415
80.537
80.7002
81.1653
81.1653
81.1368
81.7143
81.8295
81.5867
81.0615
80.7018
80.7018
81.1212
81.5915
81.4658
81.5262
82.6776
83.4808
83.4808
84.2472
85.3592
86.0244
86.758
86.074
86.0202
86.0202
86.1734
88.4336
78.11151667
78.156975
78.176125
78.17225833
78.18454167
78.22046667
78.30265
78.37731667
78.53274167
78.76164167
78.95734167
79.16664167
79.40346667
79.61598333
79.83856667
80.13143333
80.41775
80.67745833
80.8934
81.05125
81.11180833
81.11845
81.206325
81.270125
81.3002
81.426225
81.62155833
81.76876667
81.97024167
82.28461667
82.69819167
83.202875
83.65055833
84.05880833
84.42786667
84.82016667
85.39578333
77.90825833
77.95395417
77.99342917
78.0270625
78.06319583
78.0828875
78.10465833
78.14562083
78.2163875
78.3315875
78.4322375
78.5787375
78.75749167
78.88647917
79.00734583
79.15184583
79.30114583
79.4489625
79.598025
79.71428333
79.822275
79.94004583
80.08183333
80.21838333
80.35183333
80.52110417
80.7300625
80.9501
81.19399583
81.4810375
81.79579583
82.1270625
82.38118333
82.58862917
82.81709583
83.04514583
83.34799167
8/29/2013
8/30/2013
8/31/2013
9/1/2013
9/2/2013
9/3/2013
9/4/2013
9/5/2013
9/6/2013
9/7/2013
9/8/2013
9/9/2013
9/10/2013
9/11/2013
9/12/2013
9/13/2013
9/14/2013
9/15/2013
9/16/2013
9/17/2013
9/18/2013
9/19/2013
9/20/2013
9/21/2013
9/22/2013
9/23/2013
9/24/2013
9/25/2013
9/26/2013
9/27/2013
9/28/2013
9/29/2013
9/30/2013
10/1/2013
10/2/2013
10/3/2013
10/4/2013
90.5558
89.5412
88.4924
87.9242
87.9242
87.6745
89.0676
88.7784
87.2195
85.9182
85.0884
85.0884
85.2321
84.7463
84.2745
84.2842
84.3248
83.9423
83.9423
83.8154
84.1802
84.0821
83.1133
83.7874
84.2013
84.2013
84.2816
84.3296
84.1635
83.4821
83.7839
84.7725
84.7725
84.5451
84.31
84.3242
83.8732
86.0523
86.55733333
86.97496667
87.28138333
87.49513333
87.63264167
87.82510833
88.050475
88.15041667
88.14191667
88.0515
87.77273333
87.32909167
86.92951667
86.578025
86.27469167
85.97474167
85.663725
85.23661667
84.82303333
84.56975833
84.41675
84.25215833
84.14374167
84.05784167
84.012425
84.01301667
84.0168
84.00335833
83.96500833
83.95180833
84.03156667
84.080925
84.11950833
84.21923333
84.26396667
84.236625
83.7392625
84.08944583
84.37186667
84.6258125
84.889875
85.16541667
85.51399167
85.85051667
86.1046125
86.28489167
86.43583333
86.58425833
86.69069583
86.743425
86.77649583
86.7780375
86.7349375
86.64818333
86.5308625
86.43675417
86.3600875
86.27933333
86.15182917
85.9582375
85.69346667
85.47097083
85.29552083
85.14574583
84.98905
84.81436667
84.5942125
84.4273
84.32534167
84.26812917
84.23569583
84.20385417
84.14723333
10/5/2013
10/6/2013
10/7/2013
10/8/2013
10/9/2013
10/10/2013
10/11/2013
10/12/2013
10/13/2013
10/14/2013
10/15/2013
10/16/2013
10/17/2013
10/18/2013
10/19/2013
10/20/2013
10/21/2013
10/22/2013
10/23/2013
10/24/2013
10/25/2013
10/26/2013
10/27/2013
10/28/2013
10/29/2013
10/30/2013
10/31/2013
11/1/2013
11/2/2013
11/3/2013
11/4/2013
11/5/2013
11/6/2013
11/7/2013
11/8/2013
11/9/2013
11/10/2013
83.2373
82.6925
82.6925
83.2325
83.41
83.3765
82.8293
82.1895
82.0174
82.0174
82.4989
82.7216
82.8545
82.7724
83.0819
83.1393
83.1393
83.562
83.8229
84.1358
84.3162
84.3704
84.3046
84.3046
84.3859
84.2262
83.8545
83.6246
83.6109
83.4333
83.4333
83.4887
83.2786
83.8163
84.0809
84.067
84.3757
84.15629167
84.02386667
83.88744167
83.80985833
83.80385
83.7699
83.60796667
83.39271667
83.182075
82.991025
82.83891667
82.74295
82.71105
82.71770833
82.75015833
82.74239167
82.71983333
82.73529167
82.81809167
82.98028333
83.17185
83.36793333
83.51840833
83.650325
83.77794167
83.89909167
83.963475
84.00391667
84.04321667
84.03249167
84.000025
83.9461
83.85963333
83.81345833
83.79481667
83.77501667
83.77416667
84.08435833
84.01844167
83.95212083
83.90660833
83.88442917
83.86085417
83.81976667
83.73682083
83.65079167
83.60512917
83.55144167
83.4897875
83.43367083
83.3707875
83.3188
83.276125
83.26184167
83.25259583
83.21302917
83.1865
83.1769625
83.17947917
83.1786625
83.1966375
83.24449583
83.3084
83.35681667
83.37315417
83.381525
83.38389167
83.40905833
83.46319167
83.51574167
83.59069583
83.6566125
83.71267083
83.77605417
11/11/2013
11/12/2013
11/13/2013
11/14/2013
11/15/2013
11/16/2013
11/17/2013
11/18/2013
11/19/2013
11/20/2013
11/21/2013
11/22/2013
11/23/2013
11/24/2013
11/25/2013
11/26/2013
11/27/2013
11/28/2013
11/29/2013
11/30/2013
12/1/2013
12/2/2013
12/3/2013
12/4/2013
12/5/2013
12/6/2013
12/7/2013
12/8/2013
12/9/2013
12/10/2013
12/11/2013
12/12/2013
12/13/2013
12/14/2013
12/15/2013
12/16/2013
12/17/2013
84.3744
84.7619
85.4238
85.4
84.9681
84.7349
84.4432
84.443
84.2717
83.8446
84.1372
84.2423
84.6379
84.4299
84.4308
84.2267
84.1526
84.4498
84.5333
84.5734
84.4657
84.4669
84.204
84.2663
84.2199
83.6782
83.7559
83.4488
83.4494
83.3788
83.6874
84.1363
84.8984
85.1495
85.2093
85.2093
85.0133
83.78651667
83.86213333
84.01206667
84.16115833
84.28905833
84.397525
84.47706667
84.5741
84.61205
84.59235833
84.59820833
84.58709167
84.60905
84.58138333
84.49863333
84.40085833
84.3329
84.30914167
84.31665
84.32751667
84.34368333
84.39554167
84.40110833
84.40310833
84.368275
84.30563333
84.24939167
84.18456667
84.12596667
84.03671667
83.966225
83.9298
83.96585833
84.02274167
84.10651667
84.1851
84.25121667
83.84280417
83.91280417
84.00799167
84.1021875
84.160775
84.198775
84.21158333
84.21686667
84.21275417
84.1935875
84.1866125
84.18062917
84.19778333
84.22175833
84.25535
84.28100833
84.31097917
84.35333333
84.39685833
84.45080833
84.47786667
84.49395
84.49965833
84.4951
84.4886625
84.44350833
84.3740125
84.2927125
84.22943333
84.17292917
84.1414375
84.12865833
84.15477083
84.20914167
84.2538125
84.29410417
84.30974583
12/18/2013
12/19/2013
12/20/2013
12/21/2013
12/22/2013
12/23/2013
12/24/2013
12/25/2013
12/26/2013
12/27/2013
12/28/2013
12/29/2013
12/30/2013
12/31/2013
1/1/2014
1/2/2014
1/3/2014
1/4/2014
1/5/2014
1/6/2014
1/7/2014
1/8/2014
1/9/2014
1/10/2014
1/11/2014
1/12/2014
1/13/2014
1/14/2014
1/15/2014
1/16/2014
1/17/2014
1/18/2014
1/19/2014
1/20/2014
1/21/2014
1/22/2014
1/23/2014
84.7316
84.7864
84.7723
84.6528
84.5812
84.58
84.4851
84.2768
84.2436
84.4446
84.9746
84.8641
84.8653
85.0387
84.9623
84.9094
84.8264
84.7765
84.3944
84.3944
84.5961
84.6676
84.2706
84.0508
83.7817
83.5841
83.5847
83.5484
83.6465
83.4737
83.3325
83.1653
83.0371
83.0389
83.0609
83.2599
83.5829
84.339
84.424875
84.53516667
84.63545
84.73565
84.81003333
84.8391
84.7873
84.71180833
84.64808333
84.628525
84.61609167
84.62723333
84.64825833
84.66409167
84.685475
84.70590833
84.72228333
84.714725
84.724525
84.7539
84.77248333
84.71381667
84.64604167
84.55574167
84.434525
84.319725
84.20630833
84.10798333
83.99941667
83.910925
83.8085
83.67858333
83.54285833
83.44205
83.37614167
83.359575
84.32231667
84.33713333
84.35986667
84.38070833
84.38618333
84.38812917
84.38445
84.37657917
84.367275
84.3773
84.4068125
84.43365417
84.48311667
84.53656667
84.59962917
84.6604625
84.72077917
84.76615833
84.7769125
84.7559125
84.73285417
84.71028333
84.67117083
84.63106667
84.5914875
84.54139167
84.49190833
84.44589167
84.40694583
84.36085
84.312825
84.2665125
84.21624167
84.15767083
84.07793333
84.01109167
83.95765833
1/24/2014
1/25/2014
1/26/2014
1/27/2014
1/28/2014
1/29/2014
1/30/2014
1/31/2014
2/1/2014
2/2/2014
2/3/2014
2/4/2014
2/5/2014
2/6/2014
2/7/2014
2/8/2014
2/9/2014
2/10/2014
2/11/2014
2/12/2014
2/13/2014
2/14/2014
2/15/2014
2/16/2014
2/17/2014
2/18/2014
2/19/2014
2/20/2014
2/21/2014
2/22/2014
2/23/2014
2/24/2014
2/25/2014
2/26/2014
2/27/2014
2/28/2014
83.977
85.1303
85.5506
85.5499
86.0141
85.8274
85.2774
85.2215
84.5235
84.0997
84.0984
84.4374
84.4717
84.1921
84.2254
84.2966
84.3164
84.3158
84.5992
84.7618
84.1548
84.4552
84.6503
84.3553
84.3535
84.5046
84.8669
85.3078
85.1989
84.887
84.8139
84.8133
84.9136
84.7907
84.79
84.7024
83.39231667
83.52111667
83.68796667
83.84658333
84.05828333
84.26619167
84.4422
84.62423333
84.74795
84.83451667
84.90439167
84.9756
85.016825
84.93864167
84.82820833
84.72376667
84.58229167
84.456325
84.39980833
84.3615
84.330775
84.3604
84.40639167
84.39955
84.3897
84.41574167
84.4692
84.55346667
84.62700833
84.67460833
84.6925
84.69679167
84.760025
84.78798333
84.799625
84.82855
83.91342083
83.92042083
83.9471375
83.97728333
84.02885
84.08855833
84.12535
84.15140833
84.14540417
84.13828333
84.14026667
84.1675875
84.20457083
84.22987917
84.2580875
84.285175
84.3202875
84.36125833
84.42100417
84.49286667
84.5393625
84.59745833
84.65539167
84.687575
84.7032625
84.67719167
84.64870417
84.63861667
84.60465
84.56546667
84.54615417
84.52914583
84.5454
84.57419167
84.60300833
84.61405
60
50
40
Close
30
20
10
0
DAYS
PRICE
70
60
50
40
30
Close
20
10
0
DAYS
The above chart shows the MACD of the closing price of EUR/INR along with its Japanese
Candlestick Chart in the year starting from 1/3/2013 to 28/2/2014.
X-axis shows the DAYS and Y-axis indicates the CLOSING PRICE of the currency.
Our Technical Analysis of the above chart indicates the following:
7) The C formation will take place around the price INR 84.535, according to the Fibonacci
Ratio of 61.80%.
8) So, it is advisable for the investor to BUY Euros when it reaches the above rate i.e.
84.535 after the appearance of Bearish signal.
9) The D formation will take place around the price INR 89.041, according to the Fibonacci
Ratio of 61.80%.
10) So, it is advisable to sell Euros when it reaches to that point i.e. 89.041
11) Upward penetration of a falling average indicates further rise and gives buy
signal so the chart shows buy signal in the mid of October(around 11th) at point
A and downward penetration of rising average indicates the possibility of
further fall so it shows sell signal at the mid of November(around 12th) at the
Point B as per our technical analysis.
12) In the same way, buy Euros in the mid of March at C on appearance of bullish signal.
100
1+RS
RS =
Date
Close
Change
Gain
Loss
Avg.
Avg.
Gain
Loss
7 Day
RS
RSI
3/1/2013 70.9637
3/2/2013 71.4865
0.5228
0.5228
3/3/2013 71.6416
0.1551
0.1551
3/4/2013 71.6416
3/5/2013 71.5822
-0.0594
0.0594
3/6/2013 71.4753
-0.1069
0.1069
3/7/2013 71.3937
-0.0816
0.0816
3/8/2013 71.1287
-0.265
3/9/2013 71.0346
-0.0941
3/10/2013 70.4945
-0.5401
0.5401
3/11/2013
70.495
0.0005
0.0005
3/12/2013 70.6608
0.1658
0.1658
3/13/2013 70.6145
-0.0463
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0.1003
0.1003
2/26/2014 84.7907
-0.1229
0.1229 0.077314
2/27/2014
84.79
-0.0007
0.0007 0.014329
2/28/2014 84.7024
-0.0876
7 Day EUR/INR
120
100
80
RSI
65.8683
60
40
7 Day RSI
20
0
DAYS
6) The chart shows Overbought Regions when RSI crosses mark of 70:
28th August, 2013 and 27th January, 2014. It gives an indication to sell.
7) The chart shows Oversold Regions when RSI crosses mark of 30:
1st November, 2013 and 16th January, 2014. It gives an indication to buy.
8) Since it is nearing the mark of 25, it is highly predicted that it is already in the Oversold
Region soon. And thus, gives an indication to buy Euros currently.
ROC = ((Todays close Close n periods ago) / (Close n periods ago)) * 100
DATE
3/1/2013
3/2/2013
3/3/2013
3/4/2013
3/5/2013
3/6/2013
3/7/2013
3/8/2013
3/9/2013
3/10/2013
3/11/2013
3/12/2013
3/13/2013
3/14/2013
3/15/2013
3/16/2013
3/17/2013
3/18/2013
3/19/2013
3/20/2013
3/21/2013
3/22/2013
3/23/2013
3/24/2013
3/25/2013
3/26/2013
3/27/2013
3/28/2013
3/29/2013
3/30/2013
CLOSE
ROC
70.9637
71.4865
71.6416
71.6416
71.5822
71.4753
71.3937
71.1287
71.0346
70.4945
70.495
70.6608
70.6145
70.4976
70.2587
70.4395
70.4769
70.4769
69.9412
70.1188
70.1743
70.1452
70.2644
70.4061
70.4061
70.2129
69.7562
69.6482
69.5227
69.7315
0.605944
-0.50051
-0.84727
-1.60116
-1.51881
-1.13955
-1.09141
-0.88726
-1.09228
-0.07802
-0.02568
-0.26026
-0.95349
-0.53732
-0.12013
-0.41781
-0.30152
-0.10046
0.664701
0.134201
-0.5958
-0.70853
-1.05558
-0.95816
3/31/2013
4/1/2013
4/2/2013
4/3/2013
4/4/2013
4/5/2013
4/6/2013
4/7/2013
4/8/2013
4/9/2013
4/10/2013
4/11/2013
4/12/2013
4/13/2013
4/14/2013
4/15/2013
4/16/2013
4/17/2013
4/18/2013
4/19/2013
4/20/2013
4/21/2013
4/22/2013
4/23/2013
4/24/2013
4/25/2013
4/26/2013
4/27/2013
4/28/2013
4/29/2013
4/30/2013
5/1/2013
5/2/2013
5/3/2013
5/4/2013
5/5/2013
5/6/2013
5/7/2013
5/8/2013
5/9/2013
69.663
69.663
69.7549
69.7579
69.7421
70.2554
70.922
70.8574
70.8574
70.9921
70.9948
71.0389
70.975
71.1481
71.2798
71.2798
71.2001
70.8993
70.6451
70.2143
70.1611
69.8959
69.8959
70.2811
70.4069
70.2723
70.2858
70.3613
70.4398
70.4398
70.6484
70.3284
70.262
70.1722
70.0824
69.9709
69.9709
70.3715
70.4624
70.541
PAGE 125 OF 221
-1.05545
-0.78319
-0.00186
0.157506
0.31558
0.75131
1.807272
1.71454
1.580534
1.769262
1.796189
1.115217
0.07473
0.410261
0.596127
0.405256
0.289176
-0.19651
-0.46481
-1.31247
-1.56945
-1.9415
-1.83174
-0.87194
-0.33718
0.082604
0.177734
0.665847
0.778157
0.225808
0.343006
0.079832
-0.03386
-0.26876
-0.50738
-0.66567
-0.95897
0.061284
0.285218
0.525564
5/10/2013
5/11/2013
5/12/2013
5/13/2013
5/14/2013
5/15/2013
5/16/2013
5/17/2013
5/18/2013
5/19/2013
5/20/2013
5/21/2013
5/22/2013
5/23/2013
5/24/2013
5/25/2013
5/26/2013
5/27/2013
5/28/2013
5/29/2013
5/30/2013
5/31/2013
6/1/2013
6/2/2013
6/3/2013
6/4/2013
6/5/2013
6/6/2013
6/7/2013
6/8/2013
6/9/2013
6/10/2013
6/11/2013
6/12/2013
6/13/2013
6/14/2013
6/15/2013
6/16/2013
6/17/2013
6/18/2013
70.8646
70.875
70.7843
70.7843
70.9141
70.8062
70.4374
70.3115
70.3976
70.4594
70.4594
70.5865
70.9507
71.5728
71.7672
71.9467
72.0514
72.0514
71.9158
72.0126
72.4456
73.069
73.5659
73.5789
73.5789
73.6543
73.7869
74.0316
74.6878
75.3879
75.6642
75.6642
76.3418
77.4269
77.118
77.4035
76.8086
76.7964
76.7964
77.0092
PAGE 126 OF 221
1.116115
1.292109
1.162483
0.586601
0.641051
0.375952
-0.60284
-0.79506
-0.54631
-0.459
-0.6412
-0.31028
0.728732
1.793874
1.945521
2.110861
2.259457
2.075326
1.36024
0.614479
0.945279
1.559905
2.101972
2.120014
2.312566
2.27974
1.851458
1.317385
1.525027
2.458585
2.834101
2.728829
3.462539
4.586285
3.253811
2.673639
1.512472
1.496348
0.59548
-0.53948
6/19/2013
6/20/2013
6/21/2013
6/22/2013
6/23/2013
6/24/2013
6/25/2013
6/26/2013
6/27/2013
6/28/2013
6/29/2013
6/30/2013
7/1/2013
7/2/2013
7/3/2013
7/4/2013
7/5/2013
7/6/2013
7/7/2013
7/8/2013
7/9/2013
7/10/2013
7/11/2013
7/12/2013
7/13/2013
7/14/2013
7/15/2013
7/16/2013
7/17/2013
7/18/2013
7/19/2013
7/20/2013
7/21/2013
7/22/2013
7/23/2013
7/24/2013
7/25/2013
7/26/2013
7/27/2013
7/28/2013
78.2066
78.6947
79.1393
78.6754
78.2565
78.2565
78.3566
78.2763
78.4957
78.6182
77.8525
77.5184
77.5184
77.3927
77.5265
77.9976
77.9477
77.8245
78.2767
78.2767
78.1214
77.1842
76.8752
78.0696
78.236
78.2463
78.2463
78.0391
77.484
77.9116
78.11
78.2947
78.1886
78.1886
78.3234
78.6151
78.4658
78.1999
78.3937
78.4702
PAGE 127 OF 221
1.411603
1.668142
3.034426
2.446729
1.901261
1.619677
0.1918
-0.53167
-0.81325
-0.0727
-0.51625
-0.94318
-1.06972
-1.12882
-1.23472
-0.78938
0.122283
0.394874
0.978219
1.142227
0.767351
-1.04285
-1.37592
0.314939
-0.052
-0.03884
0.159879
1.10761
0.791933
-0.20238
-0.16105
0.061856
-0.07374
0.191571
1.08332
0.902946
0.455511
-0.12108
0.262314
0.360155
7/29/2013
7/30/2013
7/31/2013
8/1/2013
8/2/2013
8/3/2013
8/4/2013
8/5/2013
8/6/2013
8/7/2013
8/8/2013
8/9/2013
8/10/2013
8/11/2013
8/12/2013
8/13/2013
8/14/2013
8/15/2013
8/16/2013
8/17/2013
8/18/2013
8/19/2013
8/20/2013
8/21/2013
8/22/2013
8/23/2013
8/24/2013
8/25/2013
8/26/2013
8/27/2013
8/28/2013
8/29/2013
8/30/2013
8/31/2013
9/1/2013
9/2/2013
9/3/2013
9/4/2013
9/5/2013
9/6/2013
78.4702
78.8076
79.9751
81.0415
80.537
80.7002
81.1653
81.1653
81.1368
81.7143
81.8295
81.5867
81.0615
80.7018
80.7018
81.1212
81.5915
81.4658
81.5262
82.6776
83.4808
83.4808
84.2472
85.3592
86.0244
86.758
86.074
86.0202
86.0202
86.1734
88.4336
90.5558
89.5412
88.4924
87.9242
87.9242
87.6745
89.0676
88.7784
87.2195
PAGE 128 OF 221
0.187428
0.244864
1.923513
3.633764
2.734021
2.841843
3.434552
2.991717
1.452577
0.830192
1.604852
1.09851
-0.12789
-0.57106
-0.53613
-0.72582
-0.29085
-0.14819
0.573268
2.448273
3.443542
2.908734
3.254873
4.779183
5.51749
4.935315
3.106343
3.041897
2.104521
0.953851
2.800601
4.377464
4.028162
2.873976
2.213434
2.031717
-0.85838
-1.64341
-0.8519
-1.43843
9/7/2013
9/8/2013
9/9/2013
9/10/2013
9/11/2013
9/12/2013
9/13/2013
9/14/2013
9/15/2013
9/16/2013
9/17/2013
9/18/2013
9/19/2013
9/20/2013
9/21/2013
9/22/2013
9/23/2013
9/24/2013
9/25/2013
9/26/2013
9/27/2013
9/28/2013
9/29/2013
9/30/2013
10/1/2013
10/2/2013
10/3/2013
10/4/2013
10/5/2013
10/6/2013
10/7/2013
10/8/2013
10/9/2013
10/10/2013
10/11/2013
10/12/2013
10/13/2013
10/14/2013
10/15/2013
10/16/2013
85.9182
85.0884
85.0884
85.2321
84.7463
84.2745
84.2842
84.3248
83.9423
83.9423
83.8154
84.1802
84.0821
83.1133
83.7874
84.2013
84.2013
84.2816
84.3296
84.1635
83.4821
83.7839
84.7725
84.7725
84.5451
84.31
84.3242
83.8732
83.2373
82.6925
82.6925
83.2325
83.41
83.3765
82.8293
82.1895
82.0174
82.0174
82.4989
82.7216
PAGE 129 OF 221
-2.28151
-3.22528
-2.94966
-4.30628
-4.54176
-3.37654
-1.90181
-0.89742
-1.34695
-1.51328
-1.09846
-0.1119
-0.23978
-1.43671
-0.18453
0.308545
0.460417
0.120456
0.294355
1.263576
-0.36437
-0.49572
0.678374
0.582452
0.255545
0.174066
1.008719
0.106584
-1.81096
-2.45363
-2.19126
-1.27802
-1.08415
-0.5922
-0.49016
-0.60828
-0.8164
-1.45989
-1.09232
-0.78547
10/17/2013
10/18/2013
10/19/2013
10/20/2013
10/21/2013
10/22/2013
10/23/2013
10/24/2013
10/25/2013
10/26/2013
10/27/2013
10/28/2013
10/29/2013
10/30/2013
10/31/2013
11/1/2013
11/2/2013
11/3/2013
11/4/2013
11/5/2013
11/6/2013
11/7/2013
11/8/2013
11/9/2013
11/10/2013
11/11/2013
11/12/2013
11/13/2013
11/14/2013
11/15/2013
11/16/2013
11/17/2013
11/18/2013
11/19/2013
11/20/2013
11/21/2013
11/22/2013
11/23/2013
11/24/2013
11/25/2013
82.8545
82.7724
83.0819
83.1393
83.1393
83.562
83.8229
84.1358
84.3162
84.3704
84.3046
84.3046
84.3859
84.2262
83.8545
83.6246
83.6109
83.4333
83.4333
83.4887
83.2786
83.8163
84.0809
84.067
84.3757
84.3744
84.7619
85.4238
85.4
84.9681
84.7349
84.4432
84.443
84.2717
83.8446
84.1372
84.2423
84.6379
84.4299
84.4308
PAGE 130 OF 221
0.030424
0.709215
1.297895
1.36788
0.776253
1.015938
1.168796
1.647167
1.485642
1.480768
1.401624
0.888681
0.671654
0.107445
-0.54758
-0.88396
-0.82285
-1.03351
-1.12886
-0.87562
-0.68678
0.229239
0.562128
0.759529
1.129525
1.060862
1.78113
1.917885
1.568846
1.071883
0.425715
0.081541
-0.37623
-1.34869
-1.82131
-0.9779
-0.58134
0.230569
-0.01551
0.188794
11/26/2013
11/27/2013
11/28/2013
11/29/2013
11/30/2013
12/1/2013
12/2/2013
12/3/2013
12/4/2013
12/5/2013
12/6/2013
12/7/2013
12/8/2013
12/9/2013
12/10/2013
12/11/2013
12/12/2013
12/13/2013
12/14/2013
12/15/2013
12/16/2013
12/17/2013
12/18/2013
12/19/2013
12/20/2013
12/21/2013
12/22/2013
12/23/2013
12/24/2013
12/25/2013
12/26/2013
12/27/2013
12/28/2013
12/29/2013
12/30/2013
12/31/2013
1/1/2014
1/2/2014
1/3/2014
1/4/2014
84.2267
84.1526
84.4498
84.5333
84.5734
84.4657
84.4669
84.204
84.2663
84.2199
83.6782
83.7559
83.4488
83.4494
83.3788
83.6874
84.1363
84.8984
85.1495
85.2093
85.2093
85.0133
84.7316
84.7864
84.7723
84.6528
84.5812
84.58
84.4851
84.2768
84.2436
84.4446
84.9746
84.8641
84.8653
85.0387
84.9623
84.9094
84.8264
84.7765
PAGE 131 OF 221
0.455724
0.018303
0.246313
-0.12359
0.169963
0.041336
0.285183
0.06108
-0.21729
-0.37074
-1.05849
-0.84034
-1.20532
-0.89616
-1.05321
-0.63227
0.547454
1.364083
2.038016
2.108943
2.195402
1.584348
0.707542
-0.13192
-0.44299
-0.6531
-0.73713
-0.50968
-0.29092
-0.60104
-0.62367
-0.24595
0.465115
0.335895
0.45002
0.904045
0.853121
0.55042
-0.17441
-0.10322
1/5/2014
1/6/2014
1/7/2014
1/8/2014
1/9/2014
1/10/2014
1/11/2014
1/12/2014
1/13/2014
1/14/2014
1/15/2014
1/16/2014
1/17/2014
1/18/2014
1/19/2014
1/20/2014
1/21/2014
1/22/2014
1/23/2014
1/24/2014
1/25/2014
1/26/2014
1/27/2014
1/28/2014
1/29/2014
1/30/2014
1/31/2014
2/1/2014
2/2/2014
2/3/2014
2/4/2014
2/5/2014
2/6/2014
2/7/2014
2/8/2014
2/9/2014
2/10/2014
2/11/2014
2/12/2014
2/13/2014
84.3944
84.3944
84.5961
84.6676
84.2706
84.0508
83.7817
83.5841
83.5847
83.5484
83.6465
83.4737
83.3325
83.1653
83.0371
83.0389
83.0609
83.2599
83.5829
83.977
85.1303
85.5506
85.5499
86.0141
85.8274
85.2774
85.2215
84.5235
84.0997
84.0984
84.4374
84.4717
84.1921
84.2254
84.2966
84.3164
84.3158
84.5992
84.7618
84.1548
PAGE 132 OF 221
-0.55488
-0.75766
-0.43101
-0.28477
-0.65522
-0.85602
-0.726
-0.96013
-1.19556
-1.32188
-0.74059
-0.68661
-0.53616
-0.50105
-0.65514
-0.60983
-0.70009
-0.25613
0.300483
0.976008
2.520801
3.024727
2.996596
3.307955
2.685358
1.548519
0.10713
-1.20058
-1.69515
-2.22719
-1.61953
-0.9448
-1.20791
-0.35268
0.234127
0.25922
-0.14401
0.150938
0.676667
-0.08382
2/14/2014
2/15/2014
2/16/2014
2/17/2014
2/18/2014
2/19/2014
2/20/2014
2/21/2014
2/22/2014
2/23/2014
2/24/2014
2/25/2014
2/26/2014
2/27/2014
2/28/2014
84.4552
84.6503
84.3553
84.3535
84.5046
84.8669
85.3078
85.1989
84.887
84.8139
84.8133
84.9136
84.7907
84.79
84.7024
0.188145
0.396008
0.046848
-0.29043
-0.30344
0.846179
1.009529
0.648078
0.63031
0.545798
0.365306
0.055027
-0.60616
-0.47994
-0.21747
ROC- EUR/INR
8
ROC
2
ROC
-2
-4
-6
DAYS
Many traders use a value greater than zero to indicate an increase in upward momentum and a
value less than zero to indicate an increase in selling pressure. However, some of the most
valuable signals are generated when the price of the asset and the ROC are heading in opposite
directions (known as divergence).
Our Technical Analysis of the above chart indicates the following:
Historic High of the period- 28th August 2013
Historic Low of the period- 11th September 2013
After this high and low, the RATE OF CHANGE is somewhat consistent for the past 5-6 months.
The positive value means there is enough market support to continue to drive price activity in
the direction of the current trend. A negative value suggests there is a lack of support, and
prices may begin to become stagnant or reverse.
From this, we CONCLUDE that as the ROC curve has a negative value in the end of February, the
current downward trend will reverse for some time till the formation of D which matches with
our BUY signal of Technical Analysis.
GBP/INR
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
THE ABOVE CHART SHOWS THE TREND OF INR AGAINST GBP SINCE 2004 TILL 2014.
Date
3/1/2013
3/2/2013
3/3/2013
3/4/2013
3/5/2013
3/6/2013
3/7/2013
3/8/2013
3/9/2013
3/10/2013
3/11/2013
3/12/2013
3/13/2013
3/14/2013
3/15/2013
3/16/2013
3/17/2013
3/18/2013
3/19/2013
3/20/2013
3/21/2013
3/22/2013
3/23/2013
3/24/2013
3/25/2013
3/26/2013
3/27/2013
3/28/2013
3/29/2013
3/30/2013
12 Days Moving
Avg.
Close
82.0632
82.7729
82.7441
82.7452
82.8072
82.9636
82.6922
81.9566
81.4902
80.9014
80.9025
81.0167
80.7179
80.9341
81.1544
81.6299
81.4686
81.4686
81.7141
81.8969
82.1451
82.185
82.5508
82.5636
82.5636
82.3994
82.2678
82.276
82.3066
82.666
82.08798333
81.975875
81.82264167
81.69016667
81.597225
81.485675
81.36109167
81.27958333
81.27460833
81.32918333
81.43615
81.57350833
81.70241667
81.856225
81.97833333
82.07111667
82.12495833
82.19479167
82.294575
24 Days Moving
Avg.
81.8952
81.91605
81.9004875
81.88064167
81.86109167
81.84023333
81.82783333
3/31/2013
4/1/2013
4/2/2013
4/3/2013
4/4/2013
4/5/2013
4/6/2013
4/7/2013
4/8/2013
4/9/2013
4/10/2013
4/11/2013
4/12/2013
4/13/2013
4/14/2013
4/15/2013
4/16/2013
4/17/2013
4/18/2013
4/19/2013
4/20/2013
4/21/2013
4/22/2013
4/23/2013
4/24/2013
4/25/2013
4/26/2013
4/27/2013
4/28/2013
4/29/2013
4/30/2013
5/1/2013
5/2/2013
5/3/2013
5/4/2013
5/5/2013
82.5614
82.5614
82.7609
82.4791
82.1984
82.7787
83.543
83.6228
83.6228
83.5724
83.1722
83.2027
83.2921
83.553
83.4033
83.4033
83.4234
82.8768
82.3216
82.1012
82.0783
81.5688
81.5688
82.053
82.5088
82.442
82.9032
83.5387
83.6533
83.6533
83.8034
83.1725
82.8948
83.058
83.2027
83.082
PAGE 138 OF 221
82.36518333
82.42055833
82.471875
82.49638333
82.46701667
82.48494167
82.56655833
82.66850833
82.781425
82.88945833
82.96159167
83.00631667
83.06720833
83.14984167
83.203375
83.28039167
83.382475
83.39065
83.28886667
83.16206667
83.03335833
82.86639167
82.732775
82.63696667
82.57169167
82.47910833
82.43743333
82.44871667
82.467875
82.53258333
82.65606667
82.74534167
82.81338333
82.93748333
83.07364167
83.15939167
81.82238333
81.84758333
81.90052917
81.96626667
82.0202625
82.09367917
82.21139167
82.32342083
82.42627083
82.50720833
82.57819167
82.65044583
82.71619583
82.7852
82.837625
82.8883875
82.92474583
82.93779583
82.9277125
82.9152875
82.90739167
82.877925
82.84718333
82.82164167
82.81945
82.814475
82.82040417
82.86455417
82.925175
82.96161667
82.97246667
82.95370417
82.92337083
82.9019375
82.90320833
82.89817917
5/6/2013
5/7/2013
5/8/2013
5/9/2013
5/10/2013
5/11/2013
5/12/2013
5/13/2013
5/14/2013
5/15/2013
5/16/2013
5/17/2013
5/18/2013
5/19/2013
5/20/2013
5/21/2013
5/22/2013
5/23/2013
5/24/2013
5/25/2013
5/26/2013
5/27/2013
5/28/2013
5/29/2013
5/30/2013
5/31/2013
6/1/2013
6/2/2013
6/3/2013
6/4/2013
6/5/2013
6/6/2013
6/7/2013
6/8/2013
6/9/2013
6/10/2013
83.082
83.566
83.5767
83.3561
83.7921
83.92
83.68
83.68
83.8512
83.3569
83.1268
83.2185
83.3806
83.2487
83.2487
83.4962
83.698
83.7771
83.9305
84.0289
84.2524
84.2524
84.0716
84.1974
84.6601
85.321
85.9886
86.0323
86.0323
86.2778
86.4078
86.8678
87.8986
88.6834
89.0602
89.0602
PAGE 139 OF 221
83.20715833
83.300825
83.35695
83.34173333
83.3533
83.375525
83.36524167
83.40753333
83.48723333
83.51214167
83.50581667
83.51719167
83.542075
83.51563333
83.4883
83.499975
83.49213333
83.480225
83.5011
83.530175
83.56360833
83.63823333
83.71696667
83.79854167
83.90516667
84.07785833
84.30618333
84.517525
84.71205
84.92044167
85.12688333
85.36345833
85.66730833
86.03655833
86.452275
86.85750833
82.889425
82.88996667
82.89719167
82.895225
82.9105875
82.95405417
83.01065417
83.0764375
83.15030833
83.2248125
83.28972917
83.33829167
83.37461667
83.40822917
83.422625
83.42085417
83.42271667
83.427875
83.43317083
83.46885417
83.52542083
83.5751875
83.61139167
83.65786667
83.72362083
83.79674583
83.89724167
84.00875
84.10209167
84.20033333
84.31399167
84.44681667
84.61545833
84.83739583
85.08462083
85.328025
6/11/2013
6/12/2013
6/13/2013
6/14/2013
6/15/2013
6/16/2013
6/17/2013
6/18/2013
6/19/2013
6/20/2013
6/21/2013
6/22/2013
6/23/2013
6/24/2013
6/25/2013
6/26/2013
6/27/2013
6/28/2013
6/29/2013
6/30/2013
7/1/2013
7/2/2013
7/3/2013
7/4/2013
7/5/2013
7/6/2013
7/7/2013
7/8/2013
7/9/2013
7/10/2013
7/11/2013
7/12/2013
7/13/2013
7/14/2013
7/15/2013
7/16/2013
89.7686
90.8841
90.7237
90.9741
90.3042
90.3504
90.3504
90.707
91.611
91.877
92.4565
92.2271
91.956
91.956
92.0344
92.1583
92.5395
92.2786
90.9606
90.6375
90.6375
90.3515
90.3452
91.4193
91.2534
90.5866
90.7991
90.7991
90.6679
89.5614
89.3434
90.3031
90.6553
90.443
90.443
90.2376
PAGE 140 OF 221
87.28321667
87.74680833
88.1414
88.55321667
88.90920833
89.24859167
89.57714167
89.897075
90.20644167
90.472575
90.7556
91.01950833
91.20179167
91.29111667
91.40034167
91.499025
91.6853
91.84598333
91.89683333
91.89104167
91.80991667
91.68279167
91.50685
91.43953333
91.38098333
91.26686667
91.163925
91.05065833
90.89469167
90.66825833
90.53349167
90.505625
90.50710833
90.51473333
90.52288333
90.42440833
85.59419167
85.91233333
86.22379167
86.53537083
86.81062917
87.08451667
87.3520125
87.63026667
87.936875
88.25456667
88.6039375
88.93850833
89.24250417
89.5189625
89.77087083
90.02612083
90.29725417
90.5472875
90.7369875
90.89405833
91.00817917
91.07768333
91.131225
91.22952083
91.2913875
91.27899167
91.28213333
91.27484167
91.28999583
91.25712083
91.2151625
91.19833333
91.1585125
91.0987625
91.01486667
90.93197083
7/17/2013
7/18/2013
7/19/2013
7/20/2013
7/21/2013
7/22/2013
7/23/2013
7/24/2013
7/25/2013
7/26/2013
7/27/2013
7/28/2013
7/29/2013
7/30/2013
7/31/2013
8/1/2013
8/2/2013
8/3/2013
8/4/2013
8/5/2013
8/6/2013
8/7/2013
8/8/2013
8/9/2013
8/10/2013
8/11/2013
8/12/2013
8/13/2013
8/14/2013
8/15/2013
8/16/2013
8/17/2013
8/18/2013
8/19/2013
8/20/2013
8/21/2013
89.3543
89.9494
90.614
90.9345
90.7857
90.7857
91.0803
91.5114
91.1413
90.7032
90.861
90.8757
90.8757
91.2729
92.2767
92.889
92.1748
92.5634
93.4076
93.4076
93.6564
94.5014
94.6783
94.754
94.1632
93.7688
93.7688
94.3611
94.9435
95.0876
95.4695
96.8713
97.8568
97.8568
98.7939
99.9277
PAGE 141 OF 221
90.26615
90.21305
90.197625
90.20890833
90.218725
90.32075
90.46549167
90.56618333
90.60668333
90.62836667
90.6632
90.716375
90.84315833
90.95345
91.09200833
91.25488333
91.37064167
91.51878333
91.712725
91.87074167
92.08033333
92.39685
92.71495833
93.03815
93.31210833
93.5201
93.64444167
93.76711667
93.99784167
94.20819167
94.38001667
94.66865833
95.01869167
95.29830833
95.641275
96.07241667
90.82356667
90.73995833
90.680775
90.62978333
90.55670833
90.49450417
90.49949167
90.53590417
90.55689583
90.57155
90.59304167
90.57039167
90.55465417
90.58325
90.64481667
90.73189583
90.79468333
90.91976667
91.08910833
91.2184625
91.34350833
91.51260833
91.68907917
91.8772625
92.07763333
92.236775
92.368225
92.511
92.68424167
92.8634875
93.04637083
93.2697
93.5495125
93.84757917
94.17811667
94.55528333
8/22/2013
8/23/2013
8/24/2013
8/25/2013
8/26/2013
8/27/2013
8/28/2013
8/29/2013
8/30/2013
8/31/2013
9/1/2013
9/2/2013
9/3/2013
9/4/2013
9/5/2013
9/6/2013
9/7/2013
9/8/2013
9/9/2013
9/10/2013
9/11/2013
9/12/2013
9/13/2013
9/14/2013
9/15/2013
9/16/2013
9/17/2013
9/18/2013
9/19/2013
9/20/2013
9/21/2013
9/22/2013
9/23/2013
9/24/2013
9/25/2013
9/26/2013
100.641
101.42
100.384
100.086
100.086
100.327
102.823
105.17
104.596
103.669
103.06
103.06
103.242
105.14
105.031
103.378
102.064
100.877
100.877
101.146
100.417
100.072
100.186
100.421
100.196
100.196
99.9889
100.303
100.32
98.8343
99.2719
99.659
99.659
99.9787
100.103
99.9486
PAGE 142 OF 221
96.61223333
97.24983333
97.8011
98.278175
98.70671667
99.14333333
99.756125
100.4476833
101.0092833
101.4936333
101.8491417
102.1101667
102.3269167
102.6369167
103.0241667
103.2985
103.4633333
103.5091667
103.347
103.0116667
102.6634167
102.3636667
102.1241667
101.90425
101.6504167
101.2384167
100.8182417
100.5619917
100.4166583
100.2464333
100.112675
99.98875833
99.92559167
99.91781667
99.9109
99.87153333
94.96217083
95.38496667
95.72277083
96.02264583
96.35227917
96.6757625
97.06807083
97.55817083
98.0139875
98.39597083
98.74520833
99.09129167
99.469575
99.943375
100.4126333
100.7883375
101.085025
101.32625
101.5515625
101.729675
101.83635
101.92865
101.9866542
102.0072083
101.9886667
101.9376667
101.9212042
101.9302458
101.9399958
101.8778
101.7298375
101.5002125
101.2945042
101.1407417
101.0175333
100.8878917
9/27/2013
9/28/2013
9/29/2013
9/30/2013
10/1/2013
10/2/2013
10/3/2013
10/4/2013
10/5/2013
10/6/2013
10/7/2013
10/8/2013
10/9/2013
10/10/2013
10/11/2013
10/12/2013
10/13/2013
10/14/2013
10/15/2013
10/16/2013
10/17/2013
10/18/2013
10/19/2013
10/20/2013
10/21/2013
10/22/2013
10/23/2013
10/24/2013
10/25/2013
10/26/2013
10/27/2013
10/28/2013
10/29/2013
10/30/2013
10/31/2013
11/1/2013
99.2418
99.7742
101.173
101.173
101.16
100.981
100.874
99.8954
98.5527
97.6548
97.6548
98.4947
98.8363
98.5857
97.727
96.8911
96.6274
96.6274
97.1994
97.643
97.9019
97.6847
98.2189
98.1924
98.1924
98.7391
98.834
98.8927
98.9101
98.9823
98.7237
98.7237
98.8785
98.3869
97.8932
98.077
PAGE 143 OF 221
99.79201667
99.75686667
99.85554167
99.92804167
99.99804167
100.1769333
100.3104417
100.3301417
100.23795
100.0442917
99.840275
99.71911667
99.685325
99.58628333
99.29911667
98.94229167
98.564575
98.201775
97.89555833
97.70785833
97.653625
97.65611667
97.703125
97.67793333
97.624275
97.63705833
97.72930833
97.89610833
98.08633333
98.282575
98.4096
98.49965833
98.58104167
98.63955833
98.61241667
98.6028
100.7212167
100.4976417
100.3368917
100.2450167
100.20735
100.2116833
100.2115583
100.15945
100.0817708
99.98105417
99.8755875
99.795325
99.73867083
99.671575
99.57732917
99.43516667
99.28130833
99.18935417
99.103
99.019
98.9457875
98.85020417
98.7717
98.698525
98.6548
98.61167083
98.5142125
98.4192
98.32545417
98.242175
98.15257917
98.10375833
98.11733333
98.1478375
98.15777083
98.14036667
11/2/2013
11/3/2013
11/4/2013
11/5/2013
11/6/2013
11/7/2013
11/8/2013
11/9/2013
11/10/2013
11/11/2013
11/12/2013
11/13/2013
11/14/2013
11/15/2013
11/16/2013
11/17/2013
11/18/2013
11/19/2013
11/20/2013
11/21/2013
11/22/2013
11/23/2013
11/24/2013
11/25/2013
11/26/2013
11/27/2013
11/28/2013
11/29/2013
11/30/2013
12/1/2013
12/2/2013
12/3/2013
12/4/2013
12/5/2013
12/6/2013
12/7/2013
98.7955
98.4957
98.4957
98.6082
98.7906
99.7873
100.303
100.781
101.079
101.077
101.344
101.548
101.309
101.269
101.207
100.834
100.834
100.58
99.9252
100.394
100.981
101.527
101.034
101.034
100.827
100.49
101.036
101.512
101.617
101.698
101.699
101.687
101.802
101.541
100.549
100.102
PAGE 144 OF 221
98.65305833
98.632775
98.60458333
98.580875
98.57091667
98.638
98.76960833
98.94105
99.124425
99.3486
99.63616667
99.92541667
100.134875
100.3659833
100.591925
100.7774083
100.9476917
101.01375
100.9822667
100.9500167
100.94185
100.97935
100.9535167
100.9106833
100.8705167
100.8056
100.79135
100.84785
100.9131
101.0062667
101.1540833
101.2618333
101.33025
101.3314167
101.291
101.2133333
98.13866667
98.13491667
98.16694583
98.23849167
98.328625
98.4602875
98.58960417
98.72035417
98.85273333
98.99407917
99.12429167
99.26410833
99.39396667
99.49937917
99.59825417
99.67914167
99.75930417
99.825875
99.8759375
99.94553333
100.0331375
100.163975
100.2948417
100.41805
100.5026958
100.5857917
100.6916375
100.8126292
100.9303958
101.0100083
101.068175
101.105925
101.13605
101.1553833
101.1222583
101.0620083
12/8/2013
12/9/2013
12/10/2013
12/11/2013
12/12/2013
12/13/2013
12/14/2013
12/15/2013
12/16/2013
12/17/2013
12/18/2013
12/19/2013
12/20/2013
12/21/2013
12/22/2013
12/23/2013
12/24/2013
12/25/2013
12/26/2013
12/27/2013
12/28/2013
12/29/2013
12/30/2013
12/31/2013
1/1/2014
1/2/2014
1/3/2014
1/4/2014
1/5/2014
1/6/2014
1/7/2014
1/8/2014
1/9/2014
1/10/2014
1/11/2014
1/12/2014
99.5321
99.5327
99.5108
100.028
100.287
100.885
101.112
101.045
101.044
100.765
100.308
100.598
101.531
101.39
101.002
101
100.921
100.745
100.79
101.14
101.711
101.728
101.729
101.854
101.808
102.018
102.218
102.164
101.964
101.965
101.899
101.932
101.724
101.798
101.258
100.778
PAGE 145 OF 221
101.105425
101.02565
100.89855
100.7748833
100.66405
100.5963
100.5473833
100.4938833
100.4307167
100.36605
100.3459667
100.3873
100.553875
100.70865
100.8329167
100.9139167
100.96675
100.9550833
100.92825
100.9361667
100.99175
101.072
101.1904167
101.2950833
101.3181667
101.3705
101.4718333
101.5688333
101.65575
101.7574167
101.8498333
101.9158333
101.9169167
101.92275
101.8835
101.7938333
100.9879708
100.915625
100.84495
100.8113667
100.788575
100.8012833
100.8507333
100.8778583
100.8804833
100.8487333
100.8184833
100.8003167
100.82965
100.86715
100.8657333
100.8444
100.8154
100.7756917
100.7378167
100.715025
100.7112333
100.719025
100.7681917
100.8411917
100.9360208
101.039575
101.152375
101.241375
101.31125
101.35625
101.3890417
101.426
101.4543333
101.497375
101.5369583
101.5444583
1/13/2014
1/14/2014
1/15/2014
1/16/2014
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1/18/2014
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1/29/2014
1/30/2014
1/31/2014
2/1/2014
2/2/2014
2/3/2014
2/4/2014
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2/6/2014
2/7/2014
2/8/2014
2/9/2014
2/10/2014
2/11/2014
2/12/2014
2/13/2014
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2/15/2014
2/16/2014
2/17/2014
100.778
100.537
100.412
100.464
100.12
100.259
100.694
100.695
100.716
101.053
101.837
102.383
103.158
103.077
103.071
103.95
104.168
103.458
103.419
102.863
102.514
102.512
102.445
101.91
101.577
101.407
101.396
101.464
101.464
101.803
101.966
101.976
102.961
103.202
103.183
103.183
PAGE 146 OF 221
101.708
101.5845833
101.4340833
101.2924167
101.13875
100.9965833
100.8961667
100.7930833
100.7090833
100.647
100.69525
100.829
101.0273333
101.239
101.4605833
101.7510833
102.0884167
102.355
102.5820833
102.76275
102.9125833
103.0341667
103.0848333
103.0454167
102.9136667
102.7745
102.6349167
102.42775
102.2024167
102.0645
101.9434167
101.8695
101.90675
101.96425
102.02575
102.1318333
101.5130833
101.4775417
101.4529583
101.430625
101.39725
101.377
101.373
101.3544583
101.313
101.284875
101.289375
101.3114167
101.3676667
101.4117917
101.4473333
101.52175
101.6135833
101.6757917
101.739125
101.7779167
101.8108333
101.8405833
101.8900417
101.9372083
101.9705
102.00675
102.04775
102.0894167
102.1454167
102.20975
102.26275
102.316125
102.4096667
102.4992083
102.5552917
102.588625
2/18/2014
2/19/2014
2/20/2014
2/21/2014
2/22/2014
2/23/2014
2/24/2014
2/25/2014
2/26/2014
2/27/2014
2/28/2014
103.267
103.295
103.496
103.469
103.059
102.6
102.597
102.847
102.892
103.005
103.16
102.2726667
102.43
102.605
102.7720833
102.905
102.9714167
103.024
103.0965833
103.0908333
103.0744167
103.0725
102.5931667
102.60225
102.6199583
102.5999167
102.5537083
102.5179583
102.4837083
102.4830417
102.4987917
102.5193333
102.549125
PRICE
80
60
Close
40
DAYS
PRICE
80
60
40
Close
24 Days Moving Avg.
20
0
DAYS
The above chart shows the MACD of the closing price of GBP/INR along with its Japanese
Candlestick Chart in the year starting from 1/3/2013 to 28/2/2014.
X-axis shows the DAYS and Y-axis indicates the CLOSING PRICE of the currency.
1. The C formation will take place around the price INR 103.486, according to the
Fibonacci Ratio of 61.80%.
2. So, it is advisable for the investor to sell his/her POUNDS when it reaches the above rate
i.e. 103.486 after the appearance of Bearish signal.
3. The D formation will take place around the price INR 96.350, according to the Fibonacci
Ratio of 61.80%.
4. So, it is advisable to buy POUNDS when it reaches to that point i.e. 96.350.
5. Upward penetration of a falling average indicates further rise and gives buy
signal so the chart shows buy signal on 11thOctober at point D and downward
penetration of rising average indicates the possibility of further fall so it shows
sell signal on 3rd December 2013, 27th January 2014, 17th February 2014 as per
our technical analysis.
6. In the same way, buy POUNDS on or around 24th of March, 2014 at B, so that when we
reach the point C at 103.486 we can square off the investment and earn profits.
100
1+RS
RS =
DATE
CLOSE
CHANGE
GAIN
LOSS
AVG.
AVG.
GAIN
LOSS
RS
7 DAY
RSI
3/1/2013
82.0632
3/2/2013
82.7729
0.7097
0.7097
3/3/2013
82.7441
-0.0288
0.0288
3/4/2013
82.7452
0.0011
0.0011
3/5/2013
82.8072
0.062
0.062
3/6/2013
82.9636
0.1564
0.1564
3/7/2013
82.6922
-0.2714
0.2714
3/8/2013
81.9566
-0.7356
3/9/2013
81.4902
-0.4664
0.4664 0.031357
3/10/2013
80.9014
-0.5888
0.5888 0.031357
0.2946
0.10644
9.62002
3/11/2013
80.9025
0.0011
0.0011
0 0.031357
0.2946
0.10644
9.62002
3/12/2013
81.0167
0.1142
0.1142
0 0.038814
3/13/2013
80.7179
-0.2988
3/14/2013
80.9341
0.2162
0.2162
3/15/2013
81.1544
0.2203
0.2203
3/16/2013
81.6299
0.4755
0.4755
0 0.146757
3/17/2013
81.4686
-0.1613
4.65614
3/18/2013
81.4686
3/19/2013
81.7141
0.2455
0.2455
3/20/2013
81.8969
0.1828
0.1828
3/21/2013
82.1451
0.2482
0.2482
0 0.196043 0.023043
3/22/2013
82.185
0.0399
0.0399
3/23/2013
82.5508
0.3658
0.3658
3/24/2013
82.5636
0.0128
0.0128
0 0.156429
100
3/25/2013
82.5636
0 0.156429
100
3/26/2013
82.3994
-0.1642
3/27/2013
82.2678
-0.1316
3/28/2013
82.276
0.0082
0.0082
3/29/2013
82.3066
0.0306
0.0306
3/30/2013
82.666
0.3594
0.3594
3/31/2013
82.5614
-0.1046
0.1046 0.056886
4/1/2013
82.5614
0 0.056886
4/2/2013
82.7609
0.1995
0.1995
4/3/2013
82.4791
-0.2818
0.2818 0.085386
0.0552 1.546843
60.7357
4/4/2013
82.1984
-0.2807
0.2807 0.084214
0.0953 0.883676
46.9123
4/5/2013
82.7787
0.5803
0.5803
0 0.162743
0.0953
4/6/2013
83.543
0.7643
0.7643
0 0.220586
4/7/2013
83.6228
0.0798
0.0798
4/8/2013
83.6228
4/9/2013
83.5724
-0.0504
4/10/2013
83.1722
-0.4002
4/11/2013
83.2027
0.0305
0.0305
4/12/2013
83.2921
0.0894
0.0894
0 0.137714 0.064371
4/13/2013
83.553
0.2609
0.2609
4/14/2013
83.4033
-0.1497
0.1497
8.50775 89.48226
1.70769 63.06815
2.13937 68.14647
4/15/2013
83.4033
4/16/2013
83.4234
0.0201
0.0201
4/17/2013
82.8768
-0.5466
4/18/2013
82.3216
-0.5552
4/19/2013
82.1012
-0.2204
4/20/2013
82.0783
-0.0229
4/21/2013
81.5688
-0.5095
4/22/2013
81.5688
4/23/2013
82.053
0.4842
0.4842
4/24/2013
82.5088
0.4558
0.4558
4/25/2013
82.442
-0.0668
4/26/2013
82.9032
0.4612
0.4612
0 0.200171
4/27/2013
83.5387
0.6355
0.6355
4/28/2013
83.6533
0.1146
0.1146
4/29/2013
83.6533
4/30/2013
83.8034
0.1501
0.1501
5/1/2013
83.1725
-0.6309
5/2/2013
82.8948
-0.2777
0.2777 0.194486
5/3/2013
83.058
0.1632
0.1632
0 0.151914
5/4/2013
83.2027
0.1447
0.1447
0.1298
5/5/2013
83.082
-0.1207
5/6/2013
83.082
5/7/2013
83.566
0.484
0.484
5/8/2013
83.5767
0.0107
0.0107
5/9/2013
83.3561
-0.2206
5/10/2013
83.7921
0.436
0.436
5/11/2013
83.92
0.1279
0.1279
5/12/2013
83.68
-0.24
0.19091 16.03058
0.0818
0.6302 38.65784
1.32682
75.9088
3.10167 75.61969
5/13/2013
83.68
0 0.151229
5/14/2013
83.8512
0.1712
0.1712
0 0.106543
5/15/2013
83.3569
-0.4943
5/16/2013
83.1268
-0.2301
5/17/2013
83.2185
0.0917
0.0917
5/18/2013
83.3806
0.1621
0.1621
5/19/2013
83.2487
-0.1319
5/20/2013
83.2487
5/21/2013
83.4962
0.2475
0.2475
5/22/2013
83.698
0.2018
0.2018
5/23/2013
83.7771
0.0791
0.0791
0 0.111743 0.018843
5/24/2013
83.9305
0.1534
0.1534
5/25/2013
84.0289
0.0984
0.0984
5/26/2013
84.2524
0.2235
0.2235
0 0.143386
100
5/27/2013
84.2524
0 0.143386
100
5/28/2013
84.0716
-0.1808
5/29/2013
84.1974
0.1258
0.1258
5/30/2013
84.6601
0.4627
0.4627
0 0.151971 0.025829
5/31/2013
85.321
0.6609
0.6609
6/1/2013
85.9886
0.6676
0.6676
6/2/2013
86.0323
0.0437
0.0437
6/3/2013
86.0323
6/4/2013
86.2778
0.2455
0.2455
0 0.315171
100
6/5/2013
86.4078
0.13
0.13
0 0.315771
100
6/6/2013
86.8678
0.46
0.46
0 0.315386
100
6/7/2013
87.8986
1.0308
1.0308
0 0.368229
100
6/8/2013
88.6834
0.7848
0.7848
0 0.384971
100
6/9/2013
89.0602
0.3768
0.3768
0 0.432557
100
43.2539
5.93025 85.57051
5.88385 85.47324
6/10/2013
89.0602
0 0.432557
100
6/11/2013
89.7686
0.7084
0.7084
0 0.498686
100
6/12/2013
90.8841
1.1155
1.1155
0 0.639471
100
6/13/2013
90.7237
-0.1604
6/14/2013
90.9741
0.2504
0.2504
6/15/2013
90.3042
-0.6699
6/16/2013
90.3504
0.0462
0.0462
6/17/2013
90.3504
6/18/2013
90.707
0.3566
0.3566
6/19/2013
91.611
0.904
0.904
6/20/2013
91.877
0.266
0.266
0 0.260457
0.0957
6/21/2013
92.4565
0.5795
0.5795
0 0.307471
0.0957 3.212868
6/22/2013
92.2271
-0.2294
6/23/2013
91.956
-0.2711
0.2711 0.300871
6/24/2013
91.956
0 0.300871
6/25/2013
92.0344
0.0784
0.0784
0 0.261129
6/26/2013
92.1583
0.1239
0.1239
0 0.149686
6/27/2013
92.5395
0.3812
0.3812
0 0.166143
6/28/2013
92.2786
-0.2609
6/29/2013
90.9606
-1.318
6/30/2013
90.6375
-0.3231
7/1/2013
90.6375
7/2/2013
90.3515
-0.286
7/3/2013
90.3452
-0.0063
7/4/2013
91.4193
1.0741
1.0741
7/5/2013
91.2534
-0.1659
0.1659 0.153443
7/6/2013
90.5866
-0.6668
7/7/2013
90.7991
0.2125
0.2125
68.0531
2.7216 73.12984
76.2632
0.23085 18.75534
7/8/2013
90.7991
7/9/2013
90.6679
-0.1312
0.1312
0.1838
7/10/2013
89.5614
-1.1065
1.1065
7/11/2013
89.3434
-0.218
7/12/2013
90.3031
0.9597
0.9597
7/13/2013
90.6553
0.3522
0.3522
7/14/2013
90.443
-0.2123
7/15/2013
90.443
7/16/2013
90.2376
-0.2054
7/17/2013
89.3543
-0.8833
0.8833 0.187414
7/18/2013
89.9494
0.5951
0.5951
7/19/2013
90.614
0.6646
0.6646
0 0.230271 0.185857
7/20/2013
90.9345
0.3205
0.3205
54.8452
7/21/2013
90.7857
-0.1488
56.0812
7/22/2013
90.7857
56.0812
7/23/2013
91.0803
0.2946
0.2946
7/24/2013
91.5114
0.4311
0.4311
7/25/2013
91.1413
-0.3701
0.3701
7/26/2013
90.7032
-0.4381
7/27/2013
90.861
0.1578
0.1578
7/28/2013
90.8757
0.0147
0.0147
7/29/2013
90.8757
7/30/2013
91.2729
0.3972
0.3972
7/31/2013
92.2767
1.0038
1.0038
8/1/2013
92.889
0.6123
0.6123
8/2/2013
92.1748
-0.7142
8/3/2013
92.5634
0.3886
0.3886
8/4/2013
93.4076
0.8442
0.8442
0.217
0.09286 8.496941
0.86366 46.34215
1.23897 55.33661
8/5/2013
93.4076
8/6/2013
93.6564
0.2488
0.2488
8/7/2013
94.5014
0.845
0.845
8/8/2013
94.6783
0.1769
0.1769
8/9/2013
94.754
0.0757
0.0757
0 0.368457
8/10/2013
94.1632
-0.5908
0.5908 0.312943
8/11/2013
93.7688
-0.3944
8/12/2013
93.7688
8/13/2013
94.3611
0.5923
0.5923
8/14/2013
94.9435
0.5824
0.5824
8/15/2013
95.0876
0.1441
0.1441
8/16/2013
95.4695
0.3819
0.3819
8/17/2013
96.8713
1.4018
1.4018
8/18/2013
97.8568
0.9855
0.9855
0.584
100
8/19/2013
97.8568
0.584
100
8/20/2013
98.7939
0.9371
0.9371
0 0.633257
100
8/21/2013
99.9277
1.1338
1.1338
0 0.712029
100
8/22/2013
100.641
0.7133
0.7133
0 0.793343
100
8/23/2013
101.42
0.779
0.779
0 0.850071
100
8/24/2013
100.384
-1.036
1.036 0.649814
8/25/2013
100.086
-0.298
8/26/2013
100.086
8/27/2013
100.327
0.241
0.241
0 0.409586 0.190571
2.14925 68.24641
8/28/2013
102.823
2.496
2.496
0 0.604186 0.190571
3.17039 76.02143
8/29/2013
105.17
2.347
2.347
8/30/2013
104.596
-0.574
8/31/2013
103.669
-0.927
0.927 0.726286
9/1/2013
103.06
-0.609
0 0.442529 0.102029
4.3373 81.26394
100
0.0844 3.707854
78.7589
81.4645
2.66457 72.71167
9/2/2013
103.06
9/3/2013
103.242
0.182
0.182
9/4/2013
105.14
1.898
1.898
9/5/2013
105.031
-0.109
0.109 0.297143
9/6/2013
103.378
-1.653
9/7/2013
102.064
-1.314
9/8/2013
100.877
-1.187
1.187 0.297143
9/9/2013
100.877
0 0.297143
9/10/2013
101.146
0.269
0.269
0 0.309571
0.609 0.508327
9/11/2013
100.417
-0.729
9/12/2013
100.072
-0.345
9/13/2013
100.186
0.114
0.114
9/14/2013
100.421
0.235
0.235
0 0.088286
9/15/2013
100.196
-0.225
9/16/2013
100.196
9/17/2013
99.9889
-0.2071
9/18/2013
100.303
0.3141
0.3141
9/19/2013
100.32
0.017
0.017
9/20/2013
98.8343
-1.4857
9/21/2013
99.2719
0.4376
0.4376
9/22/2013
99.659
0.3871
0.3871
9/23/2013
99.659
9/24/2013
99.9787
0.3197
0.3197
9/25/2013
100.103
0.1243
0.1243
9/26/2013
99.9486
-0.1544
0.1544 0.181243
9/27/2013
99.2418
-0.7068
9/28/2013
99.7742
0.5324
0.5324
9/29/2013
101.173
1.3988
1.3988
67.7222
0.323
0.56445 36.07979
0.2343
33.7014
0.27333 21.46579
70.67
18.813
0.77355 43.61592
9/30/2013
101.173
10/1/2013
101.16
-0.013
10/2/2013
100.981
-0.179
10/3/2013
100.874
-0.107
10/4/2013
99.8954
-0.9786
10/5/2013
98.5527
-1.3427
10/6/2013
97.6548
-0.8979
0.8979
0.5026
10/7/2013
97.6548
0.5026
10/8/2013
98.4947
0.8399
0.8399
10/9/2013
98.8363
0.3416
0.3416
0 0.168786 0.475171
10/10/2013
98.5857
-0.2506
10/11/2013
97.727
-0.8587
10/12/2013
96.8911
-0.8359
10/13/2013
96.6274
-0.2637
34.8484
10/14/2013
96.6274
34.8484
10/15/2013
97.1994
0.572
0.572
10/16/2013
97.643
0.4436
0.4436
10/17/2013
97.9019
0.2589
0.2589
0 0.182071 0.279757
10/18/2013
97.6847
-0.2172
10/19/2013
98.2189
0.5342
0.5342
10/20/2013
98.1924
-0.0265
7.42183
88.1261
10/21/2013
98.1924
0 0.258386 0.034814
7.42183
88.1261
10/22/2013
98.7391
0.5467
0.5467
87.9779
10/23/2013
98.834
0.0949
0.0949
10/24/2013
98.8927
0.0587
0.0587
10/25/2013
98.9101
0.0174
0.0174
10/26/2013
98.9823
0.0722
0.0722
10/27/2013
98.7237
-0.2586
0 0.130514 0.315557
1.83365 64.70982
0.35521 26.21071
0.34051
25.4015
0.4136 29.25861
0.65082 39.42403
97.9271
10/28/2013
98.7237
10/29/2013
98.8785
0.1548
0.1548
10/30/2013
98.3869
-0.4916
0.4916
10/31/2013
97.8932
-0.4937
0.4937 0.034914
11/1/2013
98.077
0.1838
0.1838
0 0.058686
11/2/2013
98.7955
0.7185
0.7185
0 0.151014
0.1777 0.849827
11/3/2013
98.4957
-0.2998
11/4/2013
98.4957
11/5/2013
98.6082
0.1125
0.1125
11/6/2013
98.7906
0.1824
0.1824
11/7/2013
99.7873
0.9967
0.9967
11/8/2013
100.303
0.5157
0.5157
0 0.360829 0.042829
11/9/2013
100.781
0.478
0.478
11/10/2013
101.079
0.298
0.298
0 0.369043
11/11/2013
101.077
-0.002
11/12/2013
101.344
0.267
0.267
0 0.391114 0.000286
1368.9
11/13/2013
101.548
0.204
0.204
1379.7 99.92757
11/14/2013
101.309
-0.239
11/15/2013
101.269
-0.04
11/16/2013
101.207
-0.062
0.062 0.109857
11/17/2013
100.834
-0.373
11/18/2013
100.834
11/19/2013
100.58
-0.254
11/20/2013
99.9252
-0.6548
11/21/2013
100.394
0.4688
0.4688
11/22/2013
100.981
0.587
0.587
11/23/2013
101.527
0.546
0.546
11/24/2013
101.034
-0.493
0.3942 0.000286
0 0.067286
45.9409
87.9777
8.42495 89.38986
100
1291.65 99.92264
99.927
0 0.231829
43.999
11/25/2013
101.034
11/26/2013
100.827
-0.207
11/27/2013
100.49
-0.337
11/28/2013
101.036
0.546
0.546
11/29/2013
101.512
0.476
0.476
11/30/2013
101.617
0.105
0.105
12/1/2013
101.698
0.081
0.081
12/2/2013
101.699
0.001
0.001
12/3/2013
101.687
-0.012
12/4/2013
101.802
0.115
0.115
12/5/2013
101.541
-0.261
0.261 0.111143
12/6/2013
100.549
-0.992
12/7/2013
100.102
-0.447
12/8/2013
99.5321
-0.5699
12/9/2013
99.5327
0.0006
0.0006
12/10/2013
99.5108
-0.0219
0.0219 0.016514
12/11/2013
100.028
0.5172
0.5172
0 0.073971
12/12/2013
100.287
0.259
0.259
12/13/2013
100.885
0.598
0.598
12/14/2013
101.112
0.227
0.227
12/15/2013
101.045
-0.067
0.067 0.228829
0.0127
18.018 94.74182
12/16/2013
101.044
-0.001
17.8109 94.68393
12/17/2013
100.765
-0.279
12/18/2013
100.308
-0.457
12/19/2013
100.598
0.29
0.29
12/20/2013
101.531
0.933
0.933
12/21/2013
101.39
-0.141
0.141 0.174714
12/22/2013
101.002
-0.388
54.1771
99.1018
0.11507 10.31954
0.1964
0.1484
0.135
0.05066 4.821689
1.32345 56.96056
1.29418 56.41144
49.1362
12/23/2013
101
-0.002
0.002 0.174714
12/24/2013
100.921
-0.079
12/25/2013
100.745
-0.176
12/26/2013
100.79
0.045
0.045
12/27/2013
101.14
0.35
0.35
12/28/2013
101.711
0.571
0.571
12/29/2013
101.728
0.017
0.017
12/30/2013
101.729
0.001
0.001
12/31/2013
101.854
0.125
0.125
1/1/2014
101.808
-0.046
1/2/2014
102.018
0.21
0.21
1/3/2014
102.218
0.2
0.2
1/4/2014
102.164
-0.054
1/5/2014
101.964
-0.2
1/6/2014
101.965
0.001
0.001
1/7/2014
101.899
-0.066
1/8/2014
101.932
0.033
0.033
1/9/2014
101.724
-0.208
1/10/2014
101.798
0.074
0.074
1/11/2014
101.258
-0.54
1/12/2014
100.778
-0.48
1/13/2014
100.778
1/14/2014
100.537
-0.241
1/15/2014
100.412
-0.125
1/16/2014
100.464
0.052
0.052
1/17/2014
100.12
-0.344
1/18/2014
100.259
0.139
0.139
0 0.027286
1/19/2014
100.694
0.435
0.435
0 0.089429 0.101429
1.55598 60.87606
86.3035
24.1087 96.01732
0.079 0.014286
0 0.063429 0.045714
0.018
5.53 84.68606
1.3875 58.11518
6.78934
2.91807
1/20/2014
100.695
0.001
0.001
1/21/2014
100.716
0.021
0.021
0 0.092571
1/22/2014
101.053
0.337
0.337
1/23/2014
101.837
0.784
0.784
1/24/2014
102.383
0.546
0.546
0 0.323286
100
1/25/2014
103.158
0.775
0.775
0 0.414143
100
1/26/2014
103.077
-0.081
0.081
1/27/2014
103.071
-0.006
1/28/2014
103.95
0.879
0.879
1/29/2014
104.168
0.218
0.218
0 0.457429 0.012429
1/30/2014
103.458
-0.71
1/31/2014
103.419
-0.039
2/1/2014
102.863
-0.556
2/2/2014
102.514
-0.349
2/3/2014
102.512
-0.002
2/4/2014
102.445
-0.067
2/5/2014
101.91
-0.535
0.535
0 0.322571
2/6/2014
101.577
-0.333
0.333
0 0.268714
2/7/2014
101.407
-0.17
0.17
0 0.287429
2/8/2014
101.396
-0.011
0.011
0 0.209571
2/9/2014
101.464
0.068
0.068
2/10/2014
101.464
2/11/2014
101.803
0.339
0.339
2/12/2014
101.966
0.163
0.163
2/13/2014
101.976
0.01
0.01
2/14/2014
102.961
0.985
0.985
2/15/2014
103.202
0.241
0.241
2/16/2014
103.183
-0.019
0 0.082857 0.025857
0.258
36.8046 97.35482
0.66244 39.84744
27.9533
3.20442 76.21551
100
2/17/2014
103.183
2/18/2014
103.267
0.084
0.084
2/19/2014
103.295
0.028
0.028
2/20/2014
103.496
0.201
0.201
0 0.219857 0.002714
2/21/2014
103.469
-0.027
2/22/2014
103.059
-0.41
2/23/2014
102.6
-0.459
0.459 0.044714
2/24/2014
102.597
-0.003
2/25/2014
102.847
0.25
0.25
2/26/2014
102.892
0.045
0.045
2/27/2014
103.005
0.113
0.113
2/28/2014
103.16
0.155
0.155
0.128
81 98.78049
0.34933 25.88916
7 Day GBP/INR
120
100
RSI
80
60
40
7 Day RSI
20
0
DAYS
98.6101
1. Varying the time period of the Relative Strength Index can increase or decrease the
number of buy and sell signals. So, lesser the time period of RSI, higher the appearance
of signals.
2. The chart shows Overbought Regions when RSI crosses mark of 70:
a. 11th October,2013 , 9th December, 2013 , 16th January, 2013 and 10th March,
2014. It gives an indication to buy.
4. Since it is nearing the mark of 25, it is highly predicted that it has already reached the
Oversold Region. And thus, gives an indication to buy pounds currently and hold them
till point C is reached.
PAGE 164 OF 221
ROC = ((Todays close Close n periods ago) / (Close n periods ago)) * 100
DATE
3/1/2013
3/2/2013
3/3/2013
3/4/2013
3/5/2013
3/6/2013
3/7/2013
3/8/2013
3/9/2013
3/10/2013
3/11/2013
3/12/2013
3/13/2013
3/14/2013
3/15/2013
3/16/2013
3/17/2013
3/18/2013
3/19/2013
3/20/2013
3/21/2013
3/22/2013
3/23/2013
3/24/2013
3/25/2013
3/26/2013
3/27/2013
3/28/2013
3/29/2013
3/30/2013
CLOSE
ROC
82.0632
82.7729
82.7441
82.7452
82.8072
82.9636
82.6922
81.9566
81.4902
80.9014
80.9025
81.0167
80.7179
80.9341
81.1544
81.6299
81.4686
81.4686
81.7141
81.8969
82.1451
82.185
82.5508
82.5636
82.5636
82.3994
82.2678
82.276
82.3066
82.666
0.766482
-0.98619
-1.5154
-2.22829
-2.30016
-2.34669
-2.38753
-1.24761
-0.41207
0.900479
0.699731
0.557786
1.234175
1.18961
1.220759
0.68002
1.328365
1.344076
1.0396
0.613576
0.14937
0.110726
-0.29582
0.124026
3/31/2013
4/1/2013
4/2/2013
4/3/2013
4/4/2013
4/5/2013
4/6/2013
4/7/2013
4/8/2013
4/9/2013
4/10/2013
4/11/2013
4/12/2013
4/13/2013
4/14/2013
4/15/2013
4/16/2013
4/17/2013
4/18/2013
4/19/2013
4/20/2013
4/21/2013
4/22/2013
4/23/2013
4/24/2013
4/25/2013
4/26/2013
4/27/2013
4/28/2013
4/29/2013
4/30/2013
5/1/2013
5/2/2013
5/3/2013
5/4/2013
5/5/2013
5/6/2013
5/7/2013
5/8/2013
5/9/2013
82.5614
82.5614
82.7609
82.4791
82.1984
82.7787
83.543
83.6228
83.6228
83.5724
83.1722
83.2027
83.2921
83.553
83.4033
83.4033
83.4234
82.8768
82.3216
82.1012
82.0783
81.5688
81.5688
82.053
82.5088
82.442
82.9032
83.5387
83.6533
83.6533
83.8034
83.1725
82.8948
83.058
83.2027
83.082
83.082
83.566
83.5767
83.3561
PAGE 166 OF 221
-0.00266
0.196603
0.599384
0.246852
-0.13146
0.136332
1.188933
1.285589
1.041434
1.325548
1.184695
0.512209
-0.30032
-0.08347
-0.26249
-0.20234
0.302024
-0.39169
-1.16518
-1.73758
-1.58867
-2.19955
-2.22312
-0.99401
0.227401
0.415097
1.005016
2.415017
2.555511
1.950325
1.569045
0.886077
-0.01013
-0.57542
-0.53865
-0.68294
-0.86082
0.473113
0.822609
0.358906
5/10/2013
5/11/2013
5/12/2013
5/13/2013
5/14/2013
5/15/2013
5/16/2013
5/17/2013
5/18/2013
5/19/2013
5/20/2013
5/21/2013
5/22/2013
5/23/2013
5/24/2013
5/25/2013
5/26/2013
5/27/2013
5/28/2013
5/29/2013
5/30/2013
5/31/2013
6/1/2013
6/2/2013
6/3/2013
6/4/2013
6/5/2013
6/6/2013
6/7/2013
6/8/2013
6/9/2013
6/10/2013
6/11/2013
6/12/2013
6/13/2013
6/14/2013
6/15/2013
6/16/2013
6/17/2013
6/18/2013
83.7921
83.92
83.68
83.68
83.8512
83.3569
83.1268
83.2185
83.3806
83.2487
83.2487
83.4962
83.698
83.7771
83.9305
84.0289
84.2524
84.2524
84.0716
84.1974
84.6601
85.321
85.9886
86.0323
86.0323
86.2778
86.4078
86.8678
87.8986
88.6834
89.0602
89.0602
89.7686
90.8841
90.7237
90.9741
90.3042
90.3504
90.3504
90.707
PAGE 167 OF 221
0.70839
1.008642
0.719771
0.136419
0.328441
0.00096
-0.79399
-0.83592
-0.35779
-0.51542
-0.71853
0.167113
0.687143
0.671245
0.659506
0.937192
1.205664
0.90567
0.446367
0.501688
0.869291
1.537685
2.060713
2.112581
2.332179
2.47086
2.064373
1.812918
2.221225
3.081517
3.519492
3.224932
3.889464
4.623462
3.214044
2.583009
1.396808
1.448683
0.648111
-0.19486
6/19/2013
6/20/2013
6/21/2013
6/22/2013
6/23/2013
6/24/2013
6/25/2013
6/26/2013
6/27/2013
6/28/2013
6/29/2013
6/30/2013
7/1/2013
7/2/2013
7/3/2013
7/4/2013
7/5/2013
7/6/2013
7/7/2013
7/8/2013
7/9/2013
7/10/2013
7/11/2013
7/12/2013
7/13/2013
7/14/2013
7/15/2013
7/16/2013
7/17/2013
7/18/2013
7/19/2013
7/20/2013
7/21/2013
7/22/2013
7/23/2013
7/24/2013
7/25/2013
7/26/2013
7/27/2013
7/28/2013
91.611
91.877
92.4565
92.2271
91.956
91.956
92.0344
92.1583
92.5395
92.2786
90.9606
90.6375
90.6375
90.3515
90.3452
91.4193
91.2534
90.5866
90.7991
90.7991
90.6679
89.5614
89.3434
90.3031
90.6553
90.443
90.443
90.2376
89.3543
89.9494
90.614
90.9345
90.7857
90.7857
91.0803
91.5114
91.1413
90.7032
90.861
90.8757
PAGE 168 OF 221
0.978024
0.99248
2.383389
2.077135
1.777081
1.376961
0.462172
0.30617
0.089772
0.05584
-1.08247
-1.43384
-1.5178
-1.96054
-2.3712
-0.9312
0.321898
-0.05616
0.178293
0.495399
0.357186
-2.03228
-2.09307
-0.31296
-0.15837
-0.39218
-0.24805
0.755013
0.0122
-0.39168
-0.04556
0.543436
0.378913
0.607396
1.931636
1.736532
0.581919
-0.25436
0.082943
0.099135
7/29/2013
7/30/2013
7/31/2013
8/1/2013
8/2/2013
8/3/2013
8/4/2013
8/5/2013
8/6/2013
8/7/2013
8/8/2013
8/9/2013
8/10/2013
8/11/2013
8/12/2013
8/13/2013
8/14/2013
8/15/2013
8/16/2013
8/17/2013
8/18/2013
8/19/2013
8/20/2013
8/21/2013
8/22/2013
8/23/2013
8/24/2013
8/25/2013
8/26/2013
8/27/2013
8/28/2013
8/29/2013
8/30/2013
8/31/2013
9/1/2013
9/2/2013
9/3/2013
9/4/2013
9/5/2013
9/6/2013
90.8757
91.2729
92.2767
92.889
92.1748
92.5634
93.4076
93.4076
93.6564
94.5014
94.6783
94.754
94.1632
93.7688
93.7688
94.3611
94.9435
95.0876
95.4695
96.8713
97.8568
97.8568
98.7939
99.9277
100.641
101.42
100.384
100.086
100.086
100.327
102.823
105.17
104.596
103.669
103.06
103.06
103.242
105.14
105.031
103.378
PAGE 169 OF 221
-0.22464
-0.26062
1.245758
2.409838
1.445945
1.857152
2.786113
2.33881
1.495177
1.735835
2.716035
2.366594
0.808928
0.386692
0.120013
-0.14846
0.280106
0.35207
1.387272
3.30867
4.359659
3.704599
4.055465
5.090148
5.416913
4.695612
2.582549
2.278023
1.307874
0.399589
2.168102
3.697496
4.195888
3.579921
2.971445
2.724092
0.407496
-0.02853
0.415886
-0.2807
9/7/2013
9/8/2013
9/9/2013
9/10/2013
9/11/2013
9/12/2013
9/13/2013
9/14/2013
9/15/2013
9/16/2013
9/17/2013
9/18/2013
9/19/2013
9/20/2013
9/21/2013
9/22/2013
9/23/2013
9/24/2013
9/25/2013
9/26/2013
9/27/2013
9/28/2013
9/29/2013
9/30/2013
10/1/2013
10/2/2013
10/3/2013
10/4/2013
10/5/2013
10/6/2013
10/7/2013
10/8/2013
10/9/2013
10/10/2013
10/11/2013
10/12/2013
10/13/2013
10/14/2013
10/15/2013
10/16/2013
102.064
100.877
100.877
101.146
100.417
100.072
100.186
100.421
100.196
100.196
99.9889
100.303
100.32
98.8343
99.2719
99.659
99.659
99.9787
100.103
99.9486
99.2418
99.7742
101.173
101.173
101.16
100.981
100.874
99.8954
98.5527
97.6548
97.6548
98.4947
98.8363
98.5857
97.727
96.8911
96.6274
96.6274
97.1994
97.643
PAGE 170 OF 221
-0.96643
-2.11818
-2.29073
-3.79874
-4.39299
-3.19797
-1.84002
-0.45204
-0.67508
-0.93924
-0.42632
0.230834
0.133751
-1.58005
-0.92229
-0.53595
-0.32994
-0.32332
-0.21631
1.127443
-0.03032
0.115594
1.51918
1.194554
1.055912
1.032931
1.64467
0.121474
-2.58992
-3.47741
-3.46501
-2.46215
-2.02004
-1.31107
-0.83783
-0.78204
-1.05207
-1.89584
-1.65617
-0.95622
10/17/2013
10/18/2013
10/19/2013
10/20/2013
10/21/2013
10/22/2013
10/23/2013
10/24/2013
10/25/2013
10/26/2013
10/27/2013
10/28/2013
10/29/2013
10/30/2013
10/31/2013
11/1/2013
11/2/2013
11/3/2013
11/4/2013
11/5/2013
11/6/2013
11/7/2013
11/8/2013
11/9/2013
11/10/2013
11/11/2013
11/12/2013
11/13/2013
11/14/2013
11/15/2013
11/16/2013
11/17/2013
11/18/2013
11/19/2013
11/20/2013
11/21/2013
11/22/2013
11/23/2013
11/24/2013
11/25/2013
97.9019
97.6847
98.2189
98.1924
98.1924
98.7391
98.834
98.8927
98.9101
98.9823
98.7237
98.7237
98.8785
98.3869
97.8932
98.077
98.7955
98.4957
98.4957
98.6082
98.7906
99.7873
100.303
100.781
101.079
101.077
101.344
101.548
101.309
101.269
101.207
100.834
100.834
100.58
99.9252
100.394
100.981
101.527
101.034
101.034
PAGE 171 OF 221
0.178968
0.819064
1.647048
1.619623
1.021611
1.122559
0.952075
1.236632
0.703734
0.804441
0.541081
-0.0156
0.045025
-0.51146
-1.02811
-0.91461
0.072728
-0.23095
-0.38714
0.224928
0.916713
1.743834
1.525879
2.320203
2.622754
2.503646
2.584659
1.764453
1.002961
0.484218
0.126634
-0.24041
-0.50324
-0.95324
-1.36592
-0.86404
-0.2233
0.687268
0.198346
0.451382
11/26/2013
11/27/2013
11/28/2013
11/29/2013
11/30/2013
12/1/2013
12/2/2013
12/3/2013
12/4/2013
12/5/2013
12/6/2013
12/7/2013
12/8/2013
12/9/2013
12/10/2013
12/11/2013
12/12/2013
12/13/2013
12/14/2013
12/15/2013
12/16/2013
12/17/2013
12/18/2013
12/19/2013
12/20/2013
12/21/2013
12/22/2013
12/23/2013
12/24/2013
12/25/2013
12/26/2013
12/27/2013
12/28/2013
12/29/2013
12/30/2013
12/31/2013
1/1/2014
1/2/2014
1/3/2014
1/4/2014
100.827
100.49
101.036
101.512
101.617
101.698
101.699
101.687
101.802
101.541
100.549
100.102
99.5321
99.5327
99.5108
100.028
100.287
100.885
101.112
101.045
101.044
100.765
100.308
100.598
101.531
101.39
101.002
101
100.921
100.745
100.79
101.14
101.711
101.728
101.729
101.854
101.808
102.018
102.218
102.164
PAGE 172 OF 221
0.902475
0.095623
0.054466
-0.01477
0.577033
0.657205
0.864848
1.191163
0.758146
0.028568
-1.05101
-1.56935
-2.1307
-2.11856
-2.25064
-1.49004
-0.26057
0.782202
1.587327
1.5194
1.540737
0.736794
0.02094
-0.28448
0.414392
0.341432
-0.04157
0.233216
0.611118
0.146126
-0.72983
-0.24657
0.701966
0.720792
0.800626
1.100799
1.010021
0.868104
0.498471
0.428594
1/5/2014
1/6/2014
1/7/2014
1/8/2014
1/9/2014
1/10/2014
1/11/2014
1/12/2014
1/13/2014
1/14/2014
1/15/2014
1/16/2014
1/17/2014
1/18/2014
1/19/2014
1/20/2014
1/21/2014
1/22/2014
1/23/2014
1/24/2014
1/25/2014
1/26/2014
1/27/2014
1/28/2014
1/29/2014
1/30/2014
1/31/2014
2/1/2014
2/2/2014
2/3/2014
2/4/2014
2/5/2014
2/6/2014
2/7/2014
2/8/2014
2/9/2014
2/10/2014
2/11/2014
2/12/2014
2/13/2014
101.964
101.965
101.899
101.932
101.724
101.798
101.258
100.778
100.778
100.537
100.412
100.464
100.12
100.259
100.694
100.695
100.716
101.053
101.837
102.383
103.158
103.077
103.071
103.95
104.168
103.458
103.419
102.863
102.514
102.512
102.445
101.91
101.577
101.407
101.396
101.464
101.464
101.803
101.966
101.976
PAGE 173 OF 221
0.231006
0.10898
0.089384
-0.0843
-0.48328
-0.35825
-0.6924
-1.16412
-1.10011
-1.36856
-1.28976
-1.31044
-1.12386
-0.51499
-0.08335
0.157156
0.302753
0.58628
1.714942
2.118513
2.447018
2.365559
2.338258
2.866812
2.288952
1.049979
0.25301
-0.20761
-0.5404
-1.38336
-1.65406
-1.49626
-1.7811
-1.41547
-1.09058
-1.02232
-0.95759
-0.10499
0.382961
0.561105
2/14/2014
2/15/2014
2/16/2014
2/17/2014
2/18/2014
2/19/2014
2/20/2014
2/21/2014
2/22/2014
2/23/2014
2/24/2014
2/25/2014
2/26/2014
2/27/2014
2/28/2014
102.961
103.202
103.183
103.183
103.267
103.295
103.496
103.469
103.059
102.6
102.597
102.847
102.892
103.005
103.16
1.543453
1.712923
1.694197
1.355559
1.275916
1.293442
0.519614
0.258716
-0.12017
-0.56502
-0.6488
-0.43371
-0.5836
-0.44844
0.098002
ROC- GBP/INR
6
ROC
ROC
-2
-4
-6
DAYS
Many traders use a value greater than zero to indicate an increase in upward momentum and a
value less than zero to indicate an increase in selling pressure. However, some of the most
valuable signals are generated when the price of the asset and the ROC are heading in opposite
directions (known as divergence).
Our Technical Analysis of the above chart indicates the following:
Historic High of the period- 28th August 2013
Historic Low of the period- 12th September 2013
After this high and low, the RATE OF CHANGE is somewhat consistent for the past 5-6 months.
The positive value means there is enough market support to continue to drive price activity in
the direction of the current trend. A negative value suggests there is a lack of support, and
prices may begin to become stagnant or reverse.
From this, we CONCLUDE that as the ROC curve has a positive value in the end of February, the
current upward trend will continue for some time which matches with our BUY signal of
Technical Analysis.
Most exchange-traded
traded options have stocks as their underlying asset but OTC-traded
OTC
options
have a huge variety of underlying assets (bonds, currencies, commodities, swaps, or baskets of
assets).
OPTIONS
PUT
CALL
Investors buy calls when they think the share price of the underlying security will rise or
sell a call if they think it will fall. Selling an option is also referred to as ''writing'' an
option.
o Put options give the holder the right to sell an underlying asset at a specified price(the
strike price). The seller (or writer) of the put option is obligated to buy the stock at the
strike price. Put options can be exercised at any time before the option expires.
Investors buy puts if they think the share price of the underlying stock will fall, or sell
one if they think it will rise.
AMERICAN
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
(EXERCISING
STYLE)
EUROPEAN
OPTIONS
AMERICAN OPTION
It is an option that can be exercised anytime during its life. American options allow option
holders to exercise the option at any time prior to and including its maturity date, thus
increasing the value of the option to the holder.
EUROPEAN OPTION
It is an option that can only be exercised at the end of its life, at its maturity. European options
tend to sometimes trade at a discount to its comparable American option. This is because
American options allow investors more opportunities to exercise the contract.
BASIC CHARACTERISTICS
Both put and call options have three basic characteristics: EXERCISE PRICE, EXPIRATION DATE
AND TIME TO EXPIRATION.
To acquire the right of an option, the buyer of the option must pay a price to the seller.
This is called the option price or the premium.
The exercise price is also called the fixed price, strike price or just the strike and is
determined at the beginning of the transaction. It is the fixed price at which the holder
of the call or put can buy or sell the underlying asset.
Exercising is using this right the option grants you to buy or sell the underlying asset.
The seller may have a potential commitment to buy or sell the asset if the buyer
exercises his right on the option.
The expiration date is the final date that the option holder has to exercise her right to
buy or sell the underlying asset.
Time to expiration is the amount of time from the purchase of the option until the
expiration date. At expiration, the call holder will pay the exercise price and receive the
underlying securities (or an equivalent cash settlement) if the option expires in the
money. The call seller will deliver the securities at the exercise price and receive the
cash value of those securities or receive equivalent cash settlement in lieu of delivering
the securities.
LONG CALL
An investor typically 'buys a call' when he expects the price of the underlying instrument will go
above the call's 'strike price,' hopefully significantly so, before the call expires.
The investor pays a non-refundable premium for the legal right to exercise the call at the strike
price, meaning he can purchase the underlying instrument at the strike price.
Typically, if the price of the underlying instrument has surpassed the strike price, the buyer
pays the strike price to actually purchase the underlying instrument, and then sells the
instrument and pockets the profit. Of course, the investor can also hold onto the underlying
instrument, if he feels it will continue to climb even higher.
SHORT CALL
An investor typically 'writes a call' when he expects the price of the underlying instrument to
stay below the call's strike price.
The writer (seller) receives the premium up front as his or her profit.
However, if the call buyer decides to exercise his option to buy, then the writer has the
obligation to sell the underlying instrument at the strike price.
Often the writer of the call does not actually own the underlying instrument, and must
purchase it on the open market in order to be able to sell it to the buyer of the call. The seller of
the call will lose the difference between his purchase price of the underlying instrument and
the strike price. This risk can be huge if the underlying instrument skyrockets unexpectedly in
price.
PUT OPTION
LONG PUT
A buyer thinks the price of a stock will decrease.
He pays a premium which he will never get back.
The buyer has the right to sell the stock at the strike price.
Payoff diagram will be as follows:
SHORT PUT
The writer receives a premium from the buyer. If the buyer exercises his option, the writer will
buy the stock at the strike price. If the buyer does not exercise his option, the writer's profit is
the premium.
[A]
COMBINATIONS
OPTIONS
TRADING
STRATEGIES
[B]
SPREADS
COMBINATIONS STRATEGIES
SHORT STRADDLE (SELL STRADDLE)
The short straddle - a.k.a. sell straddle or naked straddle sale - is a neutral options strategy that
involves the simultaneous selling of a put and a call of the same underlying asset, striking
price and expiration date.
Short straddles are limited profit, unlimited risk options trading strategies that are used when
the options trader thinks that the underlying securities will experience little volatility in the
near term.
LIMITED PROFIT
Maximum profit for the short straddle is achieved when the underlying stock price on
expiration date is trading at the strike price of the options sold. At this price, both options
expire worthless and the options trader gets to keep the entire initial credit taken as profit.
Max Profit Achieved When Price of Underlying = Strike Price of Short Call/Put
UNLIMITED RISK
Large losses for the short straddle can be incurred when the underlying stock price makes a
strong move either upwards or downwards at expiration, causing the short call or the short put
to expire deep in the money.
The formula for calculating loss is given below:
Loss Occurs When Price of Underlying > Strike Price of Short Call + Net Premium
Received OR Price of Underlying < Strike Price of Short Put - Net Premium Received
Loss = Price of Underlying - Strike Price of Short Call - Net Premium Received OR Strike
Price of Short Put - Price of Underlying - Net Premium Received + Commissions Paid
BREAKEVEN POINT(S)
There are 2 break-even points for the short straddle position. The breakeven points can be
calculated using the following formulae.
Upper Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Short Call + Net Premium Received
Lower Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Short Put - Net Premium Received
Long straddle options are unlimited profit, limited risk options trading strategies that are used
when the options trader thinks that the underlying securities will experience significant
volatility in the near term.
Profit Achieved When Price of Underlying > Strike Price of Long Call + Net Premium
Paid OR Price of Underlying < Strike Price of Long Put - Net Premium Paid
Profit = Price of Underlying - Strike Price of Long Call - Net Premium Paid OR Strike
Price of Long Put - Price of Underlying - Net Premium Paid
LIMITED RISK
Maximum loss for long straddles occurs when the underlying stock price on expiration date is
trading at the strike price of the options bought. At this price, both options expire worthless
and the options trader loses the entire initial debit taken to enter the trade.
The formula for calculating maximum loss is given below:
Max Loss Occurs When Price of Underlying = Strike Price of Long Call/Put
BREAKEVEN POINT(S)
There are 2 break-even points for the long straddle position. The breakeven points can be
calculated using the following formulae.
Upper Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Long Call + Net Premium Paid
Lower Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Long Put - Net Premium Paid
The short strangle option strategy is a limited profit, unlimited risk options trading strategy that
is taken when the options trader thinks that the underlying stock will experience little volatility
in the near term. Short strangles are credit spreads as a net credit is taken to enter the trade.
LIMITED PROFIT
Maximum profit for the short strangle occurs when the underlying stock price on expiration
date is trading between the strike prices of the options sold. At this price, both options expire
worthless and the options trader gets to keep the entire initial credit taken as profit.
The formula for calculating maximum profit is given below:
Max Profit Achieved When Price of Underlying is in between the Strike Price of the
Short Call and the Strike Price of the Short Put
UNLIMITED RISK
Large losses for the short strangle can be experienced when the underlying stock price makes a
strong move either upwards or downwards at expiration.
The formula for calculating loss is given below:
Loss Occurs When Price of Underlying > Strike Price of Short Call + Net Premium
Received OR Price of Underlying < Strike Price of Short Put - Net Premium Received
Loss = Price of Underlying - Strike Price of Short Call - Net Premium Received OR Strike
Price of Short Put - Price of Underlying - Net Premium Received + Commissions Paid
BREAKEVEN POINT(S)
There are 2 break-even points for the short strangle position. The breakeven points can be
calculated using the following formulae.
Upper Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Short Call + Net Premium Received
Lower Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Short Put - Net Premium Received
The long options strangle is an unlimited profit, limited risk strategy that is taken when the
options trader thinks that the underlying stock will experience significant volatility in the near
term. Long strangles are debit spreads as a net debit is taken to enter the trade.
Profit Achieved When Price of Underlying > Strike Price of Long Call + Net Premium
Paid OR Price of Underlying < Strike Price of Long Put - Net Premium Paid
Profit = Price of Underlying - Strike Price of Long Call - Net Premium Paid OR Strike
Price of Long Put - Price of Underlying - Net Premium Paid
LIMITED RISK
Maximum loss for the long strangles options strategy is hit when the underlying stock price on
expiration date is trading between the strike prices of the options bought. At this price, both
options expire worthless and the options trader loses the entire initial debit taken to enter the
trade.
The formula for calculating maximum loss is given below:
Max Loss Occurs When Price of Underlying is in between Strike Price of Long Call and
Strike Price of Long Put
BREAKEVEN POINT(S)
There are 2 break-even points for the long strangle position. The breakeven points can be
calculated using the following formulae.
Upper Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Long Call + Net Premium Paid
Lower Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Long Put - Net Premium Paid
STRIP
The strip is a modified, more bearish version of the common straddle. It involves buying a
number of at-the-money calls and twice the number of puts of the same underlying
stock, striking price and expiration date.
Strips are unlimited profit, limited risk options trading strategies that are used when the
options trader thinks that the underlying stock price will experience significant volatility in the
near term and is more likely to plunge downwards instead of rallying.
Profit Achieved When Price of Underlying > Strike Price of Calls/Puts + Net Premium
Paid OR Price of Underlying < Strike Price of Calls/Puts - (Net Premium Paid/2)
Profit = Price of Underlying - Strike Price of Calls - Net Premium Paid OR 2 x (Strike
Price of Puts - Price of Underlying) - Net Premium Paid
LIMITED RISK
Maximum loss for the strip occurs when the underlying stock price on expiration date is trading
at the strike price of the call and put options purchased. At this price, all the options expire
worthless and the options trader loses the entire initial debit taken to enter the trade.
The formula for calculating maximum loss is given below:
BREAKEVEN POINT(S)
There are 2 break-even points for the strip position. The breakeven points can be calculated
using the following formulae.
STRAP
The strap is a modified, more bullish version of the common straddle. It involves buying a
number of at-the-money puts and twice the number of calls of the same underlying
stock, striking price and expiration date.
Straps are unlimited profit, limited risk options trading strategies that are used when the
options trader thinks that the underlying stock price will experience significant volatility in the
near term and is more likely to rally upwards instead of plunging downwards.
Profit Achieved When Price of Underlying > Strike Price of Calls/Puts + (Net Premium
Paid/2) OR Price of Underlying < Strike Price of Calls/Puts - Net Premium Paid
Profit = 2 x (Price of Underlying - Strike Price of Calls) - Net Premium Paid OR Strike
Price of Puts - Price of Underlying - Net Premium Paid
LIMITED RISK
Maximum loss for the strap occurs when the underlying stock price on expiration date is trading
at the strike price of the call and put options purchased. At this price, all the options expire
worthless and the options trader loses the entire initial debit taken to enter the trade.
The formula for calculating maximum loss is given below:
BREAKEVEN POINT(S)
There are 2 break-even points for the strap position. The breakeven points can be calculated
using the following formulae.
SPREAD STRATEGIES
BUTTERFLY SPREAD
The butterfly spread is a neutral strategy that is a combination of a bull spread and a bear
spread. It is a limited profit, limited risk options strategy. There are 3 striking prices involved in
a butterfly spread and it can be constructed using calls or puts.
1
2
1
ITM
Call
ATM
Calls
OTM
Call
LIMITED PROFIT
Maximum profit for the long butterfly spread is attained when the underlying stock price
remains unchanged at expiration. At this price, only the lower striking call expires in the money.
The formula for calculating maximum profit is given below:
Max Profit = Strike Price of Short Call - Strike Price of Lower Strike Long Call - Net
Premium Paid - Commissions Paid
Max Profit Achieved When Price of Underlying = Strike Price of Short Calls
LIMITED RISK
Maximum loss for the long butterfly spread is limited to the initial debit taken to enter the
trade plus commissions.
The formula for calculating maximum loss is given below:
Max Loss Occurs When Price of Underlying <= Strike Price of Lower Strike Long Call OR
Price of Underlying >= Strike Price of Higher Strike Long Call
BREAKEVEN POINT(S)
There are 2 break-even points for the butterfly spread position. The breakeven points can be
calculated using the following formulae.
Upper Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Higher Strike Long Call - Net Premium Paid
Lower Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Lower Strike Long Call + Net Premium Paid
SHORT BUTTERFLY
The short butterfly is a neutral strategy like the long butterfly but bullish on volatility. It is a
limited profit, limited risk options trading strategy. There are 3 striking prices involved in a short
butterfly spread and it can be constructed using calls or puts.
ITM
Call
Buy
ATM
Calls
Sell
OTM
Call
LIMITED PROFIT
Maximum profit for the short butterfly is obtained when the underlying stock price rally pass
the higher strike price or drops below the lower strike price at expiration.
If the stock ends up at the lower striking price, all the options expire worthless and the short
butterfly trader keeps the initial credit taken when entering the position.
However, if the stock price at expiry is equal to the higher strike price, the higher striking call
expires worthless while the "profits" of the two long calls owned is canceled out by the "loss"
incurred from shorting the lower striking call. Hence, the maximum profit is still only the initial
credit taken.
The formula for calculating maximum profit is given below:
Max Profit Achieved When Price of Underlying <= Strike Price of Lower Strike Short
Call OR Price of Underlying >= Strike Price of Higher Strike Short Call
PAGE 198 OF 221
LIMITED RISK
Maximum loss for the short butterfly is incurred when the stock price of the underlying stock
remains unchanged at expiration. At this price, only the lower striking call which was shorted
expires in-the-money. The trader will have to buy back the call at its intrinsic value.
The formula for calculating maximum loss is given below:
Max Loss = Strike Price of Long Call - Strike Price of Lower Strike Short Call - Net
Premium Received + Commissions Paid
Max Loss Occurs When Price of Underlying = Strike Price of Long Calls
BREAKEVEN POINT(S)
There are 2 break-even points for the short butterfly position. The breakeven points can be
calculated using the following formulae.
Upper Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Highest Strike Short Call - Net Premium
Received
Lower Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Lowest Strike Short Call + Net Premium
Received
LIMITED PROFIT
Maximum gain for the long put butterfly is attained when the underlying stock price remains
unchanged at expiration. At this price, only the highest striking put expires in the money.
The formula for calculating maximum profit is given below:
Max Profit = Strike Price of Higher Strike Long Put - Strike Price of Short Put - Net
Premium Paid - Commissions Paid
Max Profit Achieved When Price of Underlying = Strike Price of Short Put
LIMITED RISK
Maximum loss for the long put butterfly is limited to the initial debit taken to enter the trade
plus commissions.
The formula for calculating maximum loss is given below:
Max Loss Occurs When Price of Underlying <= Strike Price of Lower Strike Long Put OR
Price of Underlying >= Strike Price of Higher Strike Long Put
BREAKEVEN POINT(S)
There are 2 break-even points for the long put butterfly position. The breakeven points can be
calculated using the following formulae.
Upper Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Highest Strike Long Put - Net Premium Paid
Lower Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Lowest Strike Long Put + Net Premium Paid
LIMITED PROFIT
Maximum profit is attained for the short put butterfly when the underlying stock price rally
pass the higher strike price or drops below the lower strike price at expiration.
If the stock ends up at the higher striking price, all the put options expire worthless and the
short put butterfly trader keeps the initial credit taken when entering the trade.
If, instead, the stock price at expiry is equal to the lower strike price, the lower striking put
option expires worthless while the "profits" of the remaining long put is canceled out by the
"loss" incurred from shorting the higher strike put. So the maximum profit is still only the initial
credit taken.
The formula for calculating maximum profit is given below:
Max Profit Achieved When Price of Underlying <= Strike Price of Lower Strike Short
Put OR Price of Underlying >= Strike Price of Higher Strike Short Put
LIMITED RISK
Maximum loss for the short put butterfly is incurred when the price of the underlying asset
remains unchanged at expiration. At this price, only the higher striking put which was shorted
expires in-the-money. The trader will have to buy back that put option at its intrinsic value to
exit the trade.
The formula for calculating maximum loss is given below:
Max Loss = Strike Price of Higher Strike Short Put - Strike Price of Long Put - Net
Premium Received + Commissions Paid
Max Loss Occurs When Price of Underlying = Strike Price of Long Put
BREAKEVEN POINT(S)
There are 2 break-even points for the short put butterfly position. The breakeven points can be
calculated using the following formulae.
Upper Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Highest Strike Short Put - Net Premium
Received
Lower Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Lowest Strike Short Put + Net Premium
Received
PAGE 203 OF 221
CONDOR OPTIONS
The condor option strategy is a limited risk, non-directional option trading strategy that is
structured to earn a limited profit when the underlying security is perceived to have little
volatility.
Condor Construction
Sell 1 ITM Call
Buy 1 ITM Call (Lower Strike)
Sell 1 OTM Call
Buy 1 OTM Call (Higher Strike)
Using call options expiring on the same month, the trader can implement a long condor option
spread by writing a lower strike in-the-money call, buying an even lower striking in-the-money
call, writing a higher strike out-of-the-money call and buying another even higher striking outof-the-money call. A total of 4 legs are involved in the condor options strategy and a net debit is
required to establish the position.
LIMITED PROFIT
Maximum profit for the long condor option strategy is achieved when the stock price falls
between the 2 middle strikes at expiration. It can be derived that the maximum profit is equal
to the difference in strike prices of the 2 lower striking calls less the initial debit taken to enter
the trade.
The formula for calculating maximum profit is given below:
Max Profit = Strike Price of Lower Strike Short Call - Strike Price of Lower Strike Long Call
- Net Premium Paid - Commissions Paid
Max Profit Achieved When Price of Underlying is in between the Strike Prices of the 2
Short Calls
LIMITED RISK
The maximum possible loss for a long condor option strategy is equal to the initial debit taken
when entering the trade. It happens when the underlying stock price on expiration date is at or
below the lowest strike price and also occurs when the stock price is at or above the highest
strike price of all the options involved.
The formula for calculating maximum loss is given below:
Max Loss Occurs When Price of Underlying <= Strike Price of Lower Strike Long Call OR
Price of Underlying >= Strike Price of Higher Strike Long Call
BREAKEVEN POINT(S)
There are 2 break-even points for the condor position. The breakeven points can be calculated
using the following formulae.
Upper Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Highest Strike Long Call - Net Premium
Received
Lower Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Lowest Strike Long Call + Net Premium
Received
PAGE 205 OF 221
SHORT CONDOR
The short condor is a neutral strategy similar to the short butterfly. It is a limited risk, limited
profit trading strategy that is structured to earn a profit when the underlying stock is perceived
to be making a sharp move in either direction.
Using calls, the options trader can setup a short condor by combining a bear call spread and
a bull call spread. The trader enters a short call condor by buying a lower strike in-the-money
call, selling an even lower striking in-the-money call, buying a higher strike out-of-the-money
call and selling another even higher striking out-of-the-money call. A total of 4 legs are involved
in this trading strategy and a net credit is received on entering the trade.
Max Profit Achieved When Price of Underlying <= Strike Price of Lower Strike Short
Call OR Price of Underlying >= Strike Price of Higher Strike Short Call
LIMITED RISK
Maximum loss is suffered when the underlying stock price falls between the 2 middle strikes
at expiration. It can be derived that the maximum loss is equal to the difference in strike
prices of the 2 lower striking calls less the initial credit taken to enter the trade.
The formula for calculating maximum loss is given below:
Max Loss = Strike Price of Lower Strike Long Call - Strike Price of Lower Strike Short Call Net Premium Received + Commissions Paid
Max Loss Occurs When Price of Underlying is in between the Strike Prices of the 2 Long
Calls
BREAKEVEN POINT(S)
There are 2 break-even points for the short condor position. The breakeven points can be
calculated using the following formulae.
Upper Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Highest Strike Short Call - Net Premium Paid
Lower Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Lowest Strike Short Call + Net Premium Paid
CALENDAR STRADDLE
The calendar straddle is implemented by selling a near term straddle while buying a longer term
straddle with the intention to profit from the rapid time decay of the near term options sold. It
is a limited profit, limited risk strategy entered by the options trader who thinks that the
underlying price will experience very little volatility in the near term.
LIMITED RISK
Maximum loss for the calendar straddle is limited and is incurred when the stock price had
moved drastically in either direction on expiration of the near term straddle. At this price, both
the near-term straddle sold and the long term straddle held will be almost equal in value. The
options trader will typically sell the long term straddle to buy back the near term straddle and
thus the maximum loss is equal to the initial debit taken to enter the trade.
The collar is a good strategy to use if the options trader is writing covered calls to
earn premiums but wish to protect him from an unexpected sharp drop in the price of the
underlying security.
Max Profit = Strike Price of Short Call - Purchase Price of Underlying + Net Premium
Received - Commissions Paid
Max Profit Achieved When Price of Underlying >= Strike Price of Short Call
LIMITED RISK
The formula for calculating maximum loss is given below:
Max Loss = Purchase Price of Underlying - Strike Price of Long Put - Net Premium
Received + Commissions Paid
Max Loss Occurs When Price of Underlying <= Strike Price of Long Put
BREAKEVEN POINT(S)
The underlying price at which break-even is achieved for the collar strategy position can be
calculated using the following formula.
CALL
PUT
1
2
3
STRIPS
STRAPS
LONG STRADDLE
BUY 1
BUY 2
BUY 1
BUY 2
BUY 1
BUY 1
SAME
SAME
SAME
SAME
SAME
SAME
SAME
SAME
SAME
SHORT STRADDLE
SAME
SAME
LONG STRANGLE
SELL
1
BUY 1
SAME
SELL
1
BUY 1
DIFFERENT
SAME
SAME
SELL
1
DIFFERENT
SAME
SAME
SR.
NO.
EXPECTATION
DOWNWARD TREND
UPWARD TREND
HIGH UNCERTAINTY
& VOLATILITY
HIGH STABILITY
HIGH UNCERTAINTY
& VOLATILITY
HIGH STABILITY
BUTTERFLY SPREAD
1 BUTTERFLY(CALL)
BUTTERFLY
SPREAD
BUY 1
LOW
SAME
SAME STABILITY
BUY 1
HIGH
SELL 2
AVERAGE
SAME
SAME VOLATILITY
SAME
SAME STABILITY
SAM E
SAME VOLATILITY
LOW
SELL 1
HIGH
BUY 2
AVERAGE
3 BUTTERFLY(PUT)
BUY 1
LOW
BUY 1
HIGH
SELL 2 AVERAGE
4 REVERSE BUTTERFLY(PUT)
SELL 1 LOW
SELL 1 HIGH
BUY 2
AVERAGE
CONDOR SPREAD
CONDOR SPREAD
1 LONG
CONDOR
(CALL)
2 SHORT
/REVERSE
CONDOR
(CALL)
3 LONG
CONDOR
(PUT)
BUY 1
(ITM)
LOW
BUY 1
(OTM)
SELL 2
(ITM & OTM)
HIGH
SELL 1
(ITM)
LOW
SELL 1
(OTM)
BUY 2
(ITM & OTM)
HIGH
2 MIDDLE
PRICES
SAME SAME VOLATILITY
2 MIDDLE
PRICES
BUY 1 (ITM)
LOW
BUY 1
HIGH
(OTM)
SELL 2
2 MIDDLE
(ITM & OTM) PRICES
4 SHORT/REVERSE
CONDOR
(PUT)
SELL 1 (ITM)
LOW
SELL 1
HIGH
(OTM)
BUY 2
2 MIDDLE
(ITM & OTM) PRICES
BUY 2 CALLS
0.62
BUY 1 PUT
0.47
1710
NET GAIN/LOSS
2290
1290
290
-710
-1710
290
2290
4290
6290
LONG STRADDLE
BUY 1 CALL
BUY 1 PUT
PREMIUM
LOT SIZE
EXERCISE PRICE
0.62
0.47
1090
NET GAIN/LOSS
2910
1910
910
-90
-1090
-90
910
1910
2910
60
1000
SPOT PRICE
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
1000
60
SPOT PRICE
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
LONG STRANGLE
PREMIUM
LOT SIZE
EXERCISE PRICE
BUY 1 CALL
2.1275
BUY 1 PUT
0.1575
2285
59
GAIN FROM CALL
0
0
0
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
61
GAIN FROM PUT
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
0
0
0
NET GAIN/LOSS
2715
1715
715
-285
-285
-285
715
1715
2715
1000
SPOT PRICE
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
SELL 1 CALL
SELL 1 CALL
BUY 2 CALLS
2.1275
0.2475
0.62
1135
59
61
60
GAIN FROM GAIN FROM GAIN FROM NET
CALL 1
CALL 2
CALL 3
GAIN
0
0
0
1135
0
0
0
1135
0
0
0
1135
0
0
0
1135
-1000
0
0
135
-2000
0
2000
1135
-3000
-1000
4000
1135
-4000
-2000
6000
1135
-5000
-3000
8000
1135
BULLISH COLLAR
PREMIUM
LOT SIZE
EXERCISE PRICE
SELL 1 PUT
SELL 1 PUT
BUY 2 PUTS
0.1575
1.1
0.47
317.5
59
61
60
GAIN FROM GAIN FROM GAIN FROM NET
CALL 1
CALL 2
CALL 3
GAIN
-3000
-5000
8000
317.5
-2000
-4000
6000
317.5
-1000
-3000
4000
317.5
0
-2000
2000
317.5
0
-1000
0
-682.5
0
0
0
317.5
0
0
0
317.5
0
0
0
317.5
0
0
0
317.5
BUY 1 CALL
2.1275
SELL 1 CALL
0.2475
-1880
59
GAIN FROM CALL
0
0
0
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
61
GAIN FROM PUT
0
0
0
0
0
0
-1000
-2000
-3000
NET GAIN/LOSS
-1880
-1880
-1880
-1880
-880
120
120
120
120
1000
SPOT PRICE
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
CONCLUSION
We would now readdress our objective that any analysis is thoroughly possible from
FUNDAMENTAL as well TECHNICAL perspective .The project deals with a detailed study of the
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS through the use of JAPANESE CANDLE-STICKS and OPTION STRATEGIES. It
always has two movements of BULLISH and BEARISH TRENDS followed in a cyclical pattern.
The detailed study of TECHNICAL ANALYSIS helps an investor to buy or sell stock at the right
time. The indicators add an extra confidence on the position (Buy or Sell) of the Investor. The
expertise of TECHNICAL study helps analysts and chartists to form a decision of buy or sell for
their corporate investors as well.
The risk of the investors is minimized and the position of an investor is covered and protected
by the use of various option strategies. Thus, Expert knowledge of TECHNICAL ANALYSIS and
OPTION STRATEGIES helps an investor to make a DECISION that will optimize his profits.
REFERENCES
BIBLIOGRAPHY AND WEBOGRAPHY
REFERENCE BOOK:
IN THE WONDERLAND OF INVESTMENT BY A.N.SHANBHAG AND SANDEEP SHANBHAG
PART II, CHAPTER 22, Pg No. 244-261
WEBSITES:
www.netdania.com
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www.investopedia.com
www.wikipedia.com
www.oanda.com
www.rbi.org.in
www.optioneducation.org
www.optionsplaybook.com
www.theoptionsguide.com
www.moneycontrol.com
www.stockchart.com
www.candlestickforum.com
LINKS:
http://www.optionseducation.org/getting_started/options_overview.html
http://www.nseindia.com/live_market/dynaContent/live_watch/live_index_watch.htm
http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/otherlinks.aspx
http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocksmarketsindia/
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