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Today, I will discuss both. But for this group, who I bet all know
what a hedge fund is, I will mostly discuss investing. Investing
and poker require similar skills.
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desperate spot playing a decent hand against a strong hand for the
remainder of their chips. I would compare them to long-only
closet indexers who trade too much. Then there are the rocks.
These folks sit around waiting for premium hands – high pocket
pairs or an Ace, King. They fold and they fold and they fold.
They are going to wait until they know they have a huge
advantage. Then they bet as much as they can. It is very hard to
beat a player like this. They can last a long time. Once people
figure them out, nobody will play them when they do play. So
they don’t get the chance to get enough chips in when they have a
large advantage. Could this be what is becoming of Berkshire
Hathaway?
The answer is, not at all. But sample sizes matter. On any given
day a good investor or a good poker player can lose money. Any
stock investment can turn out to be a loser no matter how large the
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edge appears. Same for a poker hand. One poker tournament isn’t
very different from a coin-flipping contest and neither is six
months of investment results.
On that basis luck plays a role. But over time – over thousands of
hands against a variety of players and over hundreds of
investments in a variety of market environments – skill wins out.
So let’s get to that. How many of you heard me last year? Now
how many of you heard someone use the PEG ratio and kind of
laughed to yourself when you heard it?
This year, I’d like to talk a bit about ROEs. One of the best
investors around, Joel Greenblatt, has written a popular, charming
and funny book about investing in great companies at low P/E
multiples. To simplify an already simple book, great companies
are generally measured as companies that can generate lots of
profit without requiring a lot of capital. This means that they have
high ROEs.
I recently met a smart hedge fund manager who has built a $10
billion fund around screening for companies with high ROEs and
low P/E multiples for longs and low ROEs and high P/E multiples
for shorts. The manager adds human analytical effort to confirm
that the screened results are not anomalous accounting figures but
instead generally confirm the performance of the business. This
has been a successful approach.
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My two cents on ROEs is that there are two types of businesses:
there are capital intensive businesses and non-capital intensive
business. Capital in this definition is both fixed assets and working
capital. I define a capital intensive business as a business where
the size of the business is limited by the amount of capital invested
in it. In these businesses, growth requires another plant, a
distribution center, a retail outlet or simply capital to fund growing
accounts receivable or inventory. Examples include almost all
traditional manufacturing companies, distribution companies, most
financial institutions and retailers.
When the capital doesn’t add to the returns, then ROE doesn’t
matter. It follows from this that in non-capital intensive businesses
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the price-to-book value ratio is irrelevant. The equity of the
company in the form of intellectual property, human capital or
brand equity is not reflected on the balance sheet. All that matters
is how long, sustainable or even improvable the company’s
competitive advantage is, whether it is intellectual property, human
resources or market position.
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What does all this capital-intensive activity do? It drives down the
ROEs. Sure the ROEs still seem good at around 15-20%. But
when you consider that underneath all the capital intensive stuff is
a wonderful non-capital intensive fee-generating business that
should have an astronomical ROE, you see that all the proprietary
investing and leverage isn’t adding much to shareholder returns
here. The irony of this is that these are the companies that
everyone else comes to in order to get advice on corporate finance
and capital allocation.
Why did this happen? They say that the reason is to diversify the
business to stabilize the results, as the fee streams are too volatile
for the tastes of public investors. In my view that is a lot of value
to destroy in order to stabilize results that are still pretty volatile.
Given the risk taking nature of the incremental revenues and the
fact that 50% of the revenues go to employee compensation, the
investment banks are evolving into hedge funds with…how shall I
put this?…above-market incentive compensation fee structures.
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unwinding this decision and to free the valuable service business
from the investment business. It is too soon to discuss my
progress.
To us, the shares seem less expensive. There is about $8 per share
in cash and a tax NOL worth another $7 per share. Backing these
out, the business value is about $40 a share.
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Washington Group will file a claim for the increased expense with
the customer, and it is either paid out or litigated in a process that
can take several years. Washington Group has historically
recovered money on a good percentage of its claims.
I believe that a more reasonable estimate for 2007 starts with 2006,
adds back the 60 cents of charges and grows the core business by
16%. That puts me at around $3.60 per share or about 11x
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conservatively stated earnings that give no credit for claims
recoveries. I do not believe this is a peak result. This seems pretty
cheap for a non-capital intensive business with above average
growth prospects and a history of using excess cash flow to buy
back stock. For what it is worth, the peer group trades at 20x more
aggressive earnings.
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mature and cyclical segment; Industrial Chemicals, which is
growing and moderately cyclical, and Performance Products, that
occupies high-value-added non-cyclical niches. Arkema’s products
are used in automotive, electronics, hygiene & beauty, construction
and chemical industries. Almost half of Arkema’s revenue comes
from outside of Europe and about two-thirds of its employees and
capital employed are located in Europe, primarily in France.
Arkema was spun off and started to trade in May 2006 on the Paris
Stock Exchange under the ticker AKE FP. TOTAL management,
more focused on its highly profitable oil and gas businesses, had
under-managed the “non-core” Arkema segments that have
generated margins considerably lower than its pure-play peers.
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Additionally, Arkema has a good opportunity to expand its
margins, as Arkema’s recent “recurring” operating results had
significant embedded undisclosed one-off costs depressing these
results. The Industrial and Performance Chemicals divisions,
Arkema’s two largest, which account for 75% of revenue and all of
EBITDA, have had average margins over the last eight years that
were significantly higher than recent levels. Arkema’s most
comparable company, Degussa, has operating margins almost three
times Arkema’s recent results.
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