What Is a Real Hypothesis?

A hypothesis is a tentative statement that proposes a possible explanation to some phenomenon

or event. A useful hypothesis is a testable statement which may include a prediction. A
hypotheses should not be confused with a theory. Theories are general explanations based on a
large amount of data. For example, the theory of evolution applies to all living things and is
based on wide range of observations. However, there are many things about evolution that are
not fully understood such as gaps in the fossil record. Many hypotheses have been proposed and
tested.
When Are Hypotheses Used?
The key word is testable. That is, you will perform a test of how two variables might be related.
This is when you are doing a real experiment. You are testing variables. Usually, a hypothesis is
based on some previous observation such as noticing that in November many trees undergo color
changes in their leaves and the average daily temperatures are dropping. Are these two events
connected? How?
Any laboratory procedure you follow without a hypothesis is really not an experiment. It is just
an exercise or demonstration of what is already known.
How Are Hypotheses Written?
1. Chocolate may cause pimples.
2. Salt in soil may affect plant growth.
3. Plant growth may be affected by the color of the light.
4. Bacterial growth may be affected by temperature.
5. Ultra violet light may cause skin cancer.
6. Temperature may cause leaves to change color.
All of these are examples of hypotheses because they use the tentative word "may.". However,
their form is not particularly useful. Using the word may does not suggest how you would go
about proving it. If these statements had not been written carefully, they may not have even been
hypotheses at all. For example, if we say "Trees will change color when it gets cold." we are
making a prediction. Or if we write, "Ultraviolet light causes skin cancer." could be a conclusion.
One way to prevent making such easy mistakes is to formalize the form of the hypothesis.

Formalized Hypotheses example: If skin cancer is related to ultraviolet light , then people with
a high exposure to uv light will have a higher frequency of skin cancer.
If leaf color change is related to temperature , then exposing plants to low temperatures will
result in changes in leaf color.
Notice that these statements contain the words , if and then. They are necessary in a formalized
hypothesis. But not all if-then statements are hypotheses. For example, "If I play the lottery, then
I will get rich." This is a simple prediction. In a formalized hypothesis, a tentative relationship is
stated. For example, if the frequency of winning is related to frequency of buying lottery tickets.
"Then" is followed by a prediction of what will happen if you increase or decrease the frequency
of buying lottery tickets. If you always ask yourself that if one thing is related to another, then
you should be able to test it.
Formalized hypotheses contain two variables. One is "independent" and the other is "dependent."
The independent variable is the one you, the "scientist" control and the dependent variable is the
one that you observe and/or measure the results. In the statements above the dependent variable
is blue and the independent variable is red.
The ultimate value of a formalized hypothesis is it forces us to think about what results we
should look for in an experiment.
Rewrite the first four hypotheses using the formalized style shown above. Single underline the
dependent variable and double underline the independent variable in the If clause of each
hypothesis. When you are done, write one more original hypothesis of your own using this form.
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Hypotheses Tips
Our staff scientists offer the following tips for thinking about and writing good hypotheses.
The question comes first. Before you make a hypothesis, you have to clearly identify the
question you are interested in studying.
A hypothesis is a statement, not a question. Your hypothesis is not the scientific question
in your project. The hypothesis is an educated, testable prediction about what will
happen.
Make it clear. A good hypothesis is written in clear and simple language. Reading your
hypothesis should tell a teacher or judge exactly what you thought was going to happen
when you started your project.
Keep the variables in mind. A good hypothesis defines the variables in easy-to-measure
terms, like who the participants are, what changes during the testing, and what the effect
of the changes will be. (For more information about identifying variables, see: Variables
in Your Science Fair Project.)
Make sure your hypothesis is "testable." To prove or disprove your hypothesis, you need
to be able to do an experiment and take measurements or make observations to see how
two things (your variables) are related. You should also be able to repeat your experiment
over and over again, if necessary.
To create a "testable" hypothesis make sure you have done all of these things:
o Thought about what experiments you will need to carry out to do the test.
o Identified the variables in the project.
o Included the independent and dependent variables in the hypothesis statement.
(This helps ensure that your statement is specific enough.
Do your research. You may find many studies similar to yours have already been
conducted. What you learn from available research and data can help you shape your
project and hypothesis.
Don't bite off more than you can chew! Answering some scientific questions can involve
more than one experiment, each with its own hypothesis. Make sure your hypothesis is
a specific statement relating to a single experiment.

Putting it in Action
To help demonstrate the above principles and techniques for developing and writing solid,
specific, and testable hypotheses, Sandra and Kristin, two of our staff scientists, offer the
following good and bad examples.
Good Hypothesis Poor Hypothesis
When there is less oxygen in the Our universe is surrounded by
water, rainbow trout suffer more
lice.
Kristin says: "This hypothesis is good
because it is testable, simple, written
as a statement, and establishes the
participants (trout), variables (oxygen
in water, and numbers of lice), and
predicts effect (as oxygen levels go
down, the numbers of lice go up)."
another, larger universe, with
which we can have absolutely no
contact.
Kristin says: "This statement may
or may not be true, but it is not a
scientific hypothesis. By its very
nature, it is not testable. There
are no observations that a
scientist can make to tell whether
or not the hypothesis is correct.
This statement is speculation, not
a hypothesis."
Aphid-infected plants that are
exposed to ladybugs will have fewer
aphids after a week than aphid-
infected plants which are left
untreated.
Sandra says: "This hypothesis gives a
clear indication of what is to be tested
(the ability of ladybugs to curb an
aphid infestation), is a manageable
size for a single experiment, mentions
the independent variable (ladybugs)
and the dependent variable (number
of aphids), and predicts the effect
(exposure to ladybugs reduces the
number of aphids)."
Ladybugs are a good natural
pesticide for treating aphid
infected plants.
Sandra says: "This statement is
not 'bite size.' Whether or not
something is a 'good natural
pesticide' is too vague for a
science fair project. There is no
clear indication of what will be
measured to evaluate the
prediction."