1AC Contention One is US-Mexico Water Supplies !e US-Mexico bor"er is i"eal #or cooperati$e approac!es to %ater &ana'e&ent( ransboun"ar) %ater supplies bet%een t!e& are a *e) test case #or 'lobal %ater initiati$es to establis! efecti$e a"apti$e #ra&e%or*s( Wil"er et al in 1+ (Margaret, Christopher A Scott, Nicolas Pineda Pablos, Robert G Varady, Gregg M Garfin, and Jamie Mc!oy" #atin American St$dies and %dall Center for St$dies in P$blic Policy % of Ari&ona, School of Geopgraphy and 'e!elopment and %dall Center % of Ari&ona, P$blic Policy St$dies l Colegio de Sonora, %dall Center % of Ari&ona, (nstit$te of the n!ironment and School of Nat$ral Reso$rces and n!ironment % of Ari&ona, and School of Geography and 'e!elopment % of Ari&ona" )Adapting Across *o$ndaries+ Climate Change, Social #earning, and Resilience in the %,S,- Me.ico *order Region,/ Annals of the Association of American Geographers 011(23" Scholar3 International bor"ers brin' into relief the co&plex an" "i$erse spatial an" !u&an "i&ensions o# cli&ate c!an'e( !e U(S(,Mexico bor"er re'ion is bot! e&ble&atic-&an) countries s!are transboun"ar) cli&atic re'i&es- an" exceptional-in#re.uentl) "oes an international bor"er /uxtapose nei'!bors %it! suc! "iferin', highly une$en "e$elop&ent, although some other border areas bear important similarities. 0or countries s!arin' lan" bor"ers1 t!e i&pacts o# an" a"aptation to cli&ate c!an'e in t!e transboun"ar) context pose si'ni2cant c!allen'es (Pavlakovich-Kochi, Morehouse, and Wastl-Walter 2!". #n increasing body of scholarship has emerged on the specter of global insecurity due to unstable and ine$uitable environmental governance practices. %his research calls for a greater a&areness of the security challenges' broadly interpreted' associated &ith managing scarce &ater and other resources in the conte(t of climate change ()erlak, *arady, and +averland 2,- ./0rien, 1t. 2lair, and Kristo3erson 24". Water securit)1 particularl) in a transboun"ar) context1 &ust increasin'l) consi"er cli&ate c!an'e1 !)"rolo'ic1 econo&ic1 an" institutional "i&ensions o# access to an" reliabilit) o# suppl) o# %ater #or expan"in' populations( 5nternational fora, referred to as 3'lobal %ater initiati$es4 by *arady et al. (26, 4", !a$e been establis!e" speci2call) to a""ress t!is &ulti"i&ensionalit)( A$oi"in' 3!)"rosc!i5op!renia4 an" pro&otin' 3!)"rosoli"arit)4 a&on' countries co&petin' o$er conteste" an" increasin'l) scarce %ater resources are principal 'oals of this body of &ork (7alkenmark 24- 8arvis et al. 29". 6et national aspects o# t!ese c!allen'es t)picall) re&ain t!e #ocus o# polic)&a*in' and scholarship. We suggest that explicit attention to transboun"ar) c!allen'es o# cli&ate c!an'e coul" )iel" fresh and bene2cial insi'!ts. In t!e case o# t!e United States an" Mexico1 "e$elopin' national a"apti$e responses to cli&ate c!an'e1 %it!out re#erence to political and social re'i&es across t!e 71+++-&ile bor"er1 !as often )iel"e" less-than-optimal, even !ar&#ul outco&es. 7or e(ample, &hen in 26 the :.1. ;epartment of +omeland 1ecurity e(tended its border &all at <ogales, &ithout consulting Me(ican o=cials, subse$uent thunderstorm runo3 >o&ing north&ard into #ri?ona became trapped and backed up, >ooding numerous stores and homes in Me(ico and causing signi@cant property damage. 1imilar proble&s !a$e occurre" alon' t!e bor"er1 as %!en t!e Unite" States unilaterall) li&ite" seepa'e losses in t!e All - A&erican Canal1 %!ic! con$e)s Colora"o 8i$er %ater to San Die'o1 b) linin' t!e c!annel alon' t!e bor"er %est o# 6u&a1 Ari5ona( In response1 Mexico 2le" suit in international court to see* re"ress for the loss of ground&ater recharge (from the canal seepage" that had for many decades served a maAor irrigation district and sustained critical &etlands habitat. 5n another e(ample, Me(ico/s nonpayment of its &ater debt to the :nited 1tates, JDI13 7 BeBo Lab Water Af per terms of the 4,!! treaty governing sharing the &aters of the Bio )rande, erupted in 22 into a maAor geopolitical dispute. 5n the past, suc! #ailures to a""ress transboun"ar) issues cooperati$el) !a$e o#ten c!aracteri5e" binational relations. ;espite this history, recent initiatives in collaborative, transboundary environmental management'particularly for &ater and &aste&ater' have become more common, &ith the emergence of binational institutions such as the 0order Cnvironment 2ooperation 2ommission. %his article argues for a transboun"ar) approac! to i&pro$e t!e a"apti$e capacit) to cli&ate c!an'e1 especiall) #or %ater resources &ana'e&ent1 in t!e Ari5ona,Sonora re'ion. #daptation to climate change is con$entionall) un"erstoo" to be &ore "i9cult at international bor"ers. 6et &e maintain that re'ional a"apti$e responses across bor"ers coul" increase resilience an" "ecrease $ulnerabilit) to cli&atic c!an'es( Suc! cross- bor"er approac!es can e&er'e t!rou'! s!are" social learnin' an" *no%le"'e1 b) creatin' binational co&&unities o# practice1 suc! as a&on' %ater &ana'ers or "isaster-relie# planners1 an" b) a""ressin' ine.uities resultin' #ro& une$en "e$elop&ent( We su''est t!at t!e stren't!enin' o# institutional net%or*s an" t!e copro"uction o# cli&ate *no%le"'e across bor"ers en!ance a binational re'ion:s lon'-ter& a"apti$e capacit) an" resilience. ransboun"ar) cooperation is i&paire" b) a lac* o# #ra&e%or*s #or "ata collection an" s!arin' bet%een t!e t%o states , s&all local "ata collection initiati$es !a$e "e&onstrate" t!e potential but re.uire expan"e" scope to be efecti$e #or t!e bor"er re'ion( Wil"er et al in 1+ (Margaret, Christopher A Scott, Nicolas Pineda Pablos, Robert G Varady, Gregg M Garfin, and Jamie Mc!oy" #atin American St$dies and %dall Center for St$dies in P$blic Policy % of Ari&ona, School of Geopgraphy and 'e!elopment and %dall Center % of Ari&ona, P$blic Policy St$dies l Colegio de Sonora, %dall Center % of Ari&ona, (nstit$te of the n!ironment and School of Nat$ral Reso$rces and n!ironment % of Ari&ona, and School of Geography and 'e!elopment % of Ari&ona" )Adapting Across *o$ndaries+ Climate Change, Social #earning, and Resilience in the %,S,- Me.ico *order Region,/ Annals of the Association of American Geographers 011(23" Scholar3 Wit!in t!e bor"er re'ion1 lac* o# data comparability and "ata s!arin' have long been challenges that !in"er transboun"ar) cooperation. Scienti2c *no%le"'e about 'roun"%ater a.ui#ers is particularly sparse. %he :.1.D Me(ico surface &ater treaty of 4,!! and the commission structure to enforce it created institutions for &ater $uantity allocation and &ater-$uality monitoring. ransboun"ar) 'roun"%ater, by contrast, !as pro$e" more "i9cult to 'o$ern (7eitelson 2E". An e&er'in' initiati$e1 t!e U(S(,Mexico %ransboundary #$uifer #ssessment Program (AA;", see*s to o$erco&e these institutional an" %ater-resource c!allen'es t!rou'! binational collaboration. #uthori?ed by :.1. federal la& and funded by annual budget appropriations, AA; is i&ple&ente" b) t!e U(S( <eolo'ical Sur$e) an" t!e state %ater resources researc! institutes o# Ari5ona1 =e% Mexico1 an" exas1 %it! collaboration #ro& Mexican #e"eral1 state1 an" local counterparts as %ell as IBWC an" CILA( !ree essential steps c!aracteri5e AA;> ?1@ building shared vision through /oint settin' o# ob/ecti$es an" prioriti5e" outco&es, a process based on learning among boundary people- ?7@ scienti2c assess&ent o# ground&ater resources- an" ?3@ "ual a"apti$e-&ana'e&ent strate'ies that conform to eac! countr):s institutional en$iron&ent %!ile expan"in' binational in#or&ation Ao%s an" "ata exc!an'e. O$er AA;:s brie# li#eti&e1 &utuall) "e2ne" priorities #or Ari5ona:s an" Sonora:s co&&on 1anta 2ru? and 1an Pedro a.ui#ers !a$e been i"enti2e" as $e!icles #or %ater #or 'ro%t!1 a"aptation JDI13 3 BeBo Lab Water Af to cli&ate c!an'e1 local a.ui#er-rec!ar'e pro'ra&s1 an" institutional assess&ent o# 'roun"%ater &ana'e&ent as)&&etries. %hese priorities re>ect ful@llment of t&o of the e3ective kno&ledge transmission criteria identi@ed by 2ash et al. (2F", as both salience (relevance of information shared" and credibility (scienti@c ade$uacy of the information" appear to be fully satis@ed by %##P processes for data sharing. It is explicitl) reco'ni5e" t!at binational a.ui#er assess&ent %ill support eac! nation:s &ana'e&ent o# its s!are of transboundary a$uifers. .ne implication is that &ater $uality has received diminished attention, given that, upstream, Me(ico considered it disadvantageous to identify sources of ground&ater pollution. #dditionally, %##P takes a regional approach by emphasi?ing a$uifer-level priority setting and assessment that account for di3erences bet&een participating states on the :.1. side. +o&ever, the principal boundary obAect in this case (the physical a$uifer spanning the border" is not subAect to a shared learning approach to management as a result of contrasting la&s and regulations for ground&ater in the :nited 1tates and Me(ico. S!arin' o# in#or&ation-both as inputs to the scienti@c assessments and outputs from binational activities'is a critical social-learnin' #eature of %##P t!at con#ers it a"apti$e potentialB !o%e$er1 &uc! !as )et to be reali5e". # negotiation process is under&ay &ithin the 50W2G25H# umbrella, leading to a binational agreement to identify a$uifers for assessment, permit e(change of information, initiate assessment activities, and disseminate results. 5n the :nited 1tates, &here ground&ater is managed and regulated by state and local entities, a >e(ible mechanism &as sought for direct cross-border collaboration &ith homologue entities. 5n Me(ico, by contrast, federal authority regulates ground&ater, and as a result of this asymmetry, agreement &as sought &ithin the 50W2G25H# frame&ork. .perating &ithin this institutional arrangement &ill present challenges for some %##P stakeholders &ho are accustomed to pursuing &ater resources and institutional analyses unfettered by a commission structure and the need to revie& results prior to dissemination. <evertheless, %##P is already generating successful, binational e(amples of e(change of transboundary a$uifer information- for 1anta 2ru?, a bilingual database of e(isting studies and reports has been created, and a similar one is in development for 1an Pedro. o "ate1 users !a$e been ot!er sta*e!ol"ers "irectl) en'a'e" in t!e AA; processB a $ersion #or public, Web-based release is planne" #or t!e near #uture. Co%e$er in recent )ears t!e Unite" States cease" #un"in' t!e pro/ect , lea$in' it up to Mexico( Margaret Wil"er et al( 13, #ssociate Professor, 2enter for Hatin #merican 1tudies, )regg )ar@n (:niversity of #ri?ona", Paul )anster (5nstitute for Begional 1tudies of the 2alifornias, 1an ;iego 1tate :niversity", +allie Cakin (#ri?ona 1tate :niversity", Patricia Bomero-Hankao (<2#B", 7rancisco Hara-*alencia (#ri?ona 1tate :niversity", #lfonso #. 2orte?-Hara (2olegio de la 7rontera <orte", 1tephen Mumme (2olorado 1tate :niversity", 2arolina <eri (<ational #utonomous :niversity of Me(ico", 7rancisco MuIo?-#rriola (1cripps 5nstitution of .ceanography" 2limate 2hange and :.1.-Me(ico 0order 2ommunities page F94 JhttpKGGs&carr.ari?ona.eduGsitesGdefaultG@lesG#221W:1L2h4E.pdfM C+7 %rans-border ;ata 1haring. %he :.1.-Me(ico %ransboundary #$uifer #ssessment Program (%##P", authori?ed by :.1. federal la& and supported institutionally and @nancially by both the :.1. and Me(ico, is a successful binational program focused on the assessment of shared a$uifers. #lthough the :nited 1tates did not appropriate funds for %##P in @scal year 244G242, during this period the Me(ican government began funding assessment activities on its side of the border. %##P is implemented by the :.1. )eological 1urvey and the state &ater resources research institutes of #ri?ona, <e& Me(ico, and %e(as, &ith collaboration from Me(ican federal, state, and local counterparts, as &ell as 50W2 and 25H#. %&o central aims of %##P include the scienti@c assessment of shared ground&ater resources- and development of dual adaptive-management strategies through e(panded binational information >o&s and data e(change (Wilder et al. 24- Megdal and 1cott 244". Mutually de@ned priorities for #ri?ona/s and 1onora/s common 1anta 2ru? and 1an Pedro a$uifers, for e(ample, are meeting human and ecosystem &ater re$uirements in the conte(t of gro&th and climate change (1cott et al. 242". %##P is a model of successful trans-border cooperation in data sharing and assessment that supports JDI13 D BeBo Lab Water Af &ater-management decision-making in both countries and enhances the adaptive capacity of the region in the face of climate change. !is !as &a"e it i&possible to construct re'ional "ata bases an" "ata s!arin' pro/ects( Wil"er et al in 1+ (Margaret, Christopher A Scott, Nicolas Pineda Pablos, Robert G Varady, Gregg M Garfin, and Jamie Mc!oy" #atin American St$dies and %dall Center for St$dies in P$blic Policy % of Ari&ona, School of Geopgraphy and 'e!elopment and %dall Center % of Ari&ona, P$blic Policy St$dies l Colegio de Sonora, %dall Center % of Ari&ona, (nstit$te of the n!ironment and School of Nat$ral Reso$rces and n!ironment % of Ari&ona, and School of Geography and 'e!elopment % of Ari&ona" )Adapting Across *o$ndaries+ Climate Change, Social #earning, and Resilience in the %,S,- Me.ico *order Region,/ Annals of the Association of American Geographers 011(23" Scholar3 Water &ana'e&ent in t!e bor"er re'ion is #ra'&ente" an" co&plex %it! "isparate c!aracteristics in t!e t%o countries. %he geopolitical relationship bet&een the :nited 1tates and Me(ico complicates cooperation and agreement on &ater management. 7or e(ample, :.1. immigration control or drug-tra=cking policies often are made &ith little consultation &ith Me(ico and e(acerbate the geopolitical conte(t &ithin &hich binational &ater resources issues are considered. E$en ot!er%ise unco&plicate" tas*s suc! as constructin' a re'ional "atabase are more "i9cult in t!is re'ion1 %!ic! lac*s comparable "ata an" a history of s!arin' such in#or&ation (2omrie 2F". .ver the past century, t!e t%o national governments !a$e establis!e" several /oint institutions #or &ana'in' transboun"ar) %aters- suc! as t!e International Boun"ar) an" Water Co&&ission (50W2" an" its Mexican counterpart1 CILA- the Ha Pa? %reaty of 4,6F- an" t!e post-=A0A Bor"er En$iron&ent Cooperation Co&&ission-but t!ese institutions !a$e onl) a narro% ran'e o# responsibilit)1 &uc! o# it in$ol$in' in#rastructure construction (*arady and Ward 2,". !e A"$anta'e is Cli&ate A"aptation 0irst %ar&in' %ill soon be irre$ersible , ice s!eet loss1 A&a5on tree "eat!s1 an" per&a#rost( C!estne) in 17 (<ina- sta3 &riter for Beuters ne&s service citing Will 1te3en, e(ecutive director of the #ustralian <ational :niversityNs climate change institute- O)lobal &arming close to becoming irreversibleK scientists,P Reuters- httpKGG&&&.reuters.comGarticleG242GFG2QGus-climate-thresholds- id:10BC62R46Q242F2Q" 0or ice s!eets - huge refrigerators that slo& do&n the &arming of the planet - t!e tippin' point !as probably alrea") been passe", 1te3en said. !e West Antarctic ice s!eet !as s!run* over the last decade an" t!e <reenlan" ice s!eet !as lost around 2 cubic km (DF cubic &iles@ a )ear since t!e 1GG+s( Most cli&ate esti&ates a'ree t!e A&a5on rainforest %ill 'et "rier as t!e planet %ar&s. Mass tree "eat!s caused by drought !a$e raise" #ears it is on t!e $er'e o# a tippin' point1 %!en it %ill stop absorbin' e&issions an" a"" to t!e& instea". Aroun" 1(H billion tonnes o# carbon %ere lost in 7++I from the rainforest an" 7(7 billion tonnes in 7+1+1 %!ic! !as un"one about 1+ )ears o# carbon sin* acti$it), 1te3en said. .ne of t!e &ost %orr)in' an" un*no%n t!res!ol"s is t!e Siberian per&a#rost1 %!ic! stores #ro5en JDI13 I BeBo Lab Water Af carbon in t!e soil a&ay from the atmosphere. J!ere is about 11H++ billion tonnes o# carbon t!ere - about t%ice t!e a&ount in t!e at&osp!ere today - and the northern high latitudes are experiencin' t!e &ost se$ere te&perature c!an'e o# an) part o# t!e planet,S he said. E$en i# %e be'in re$ersin' t!e process ti&e la's bet%een e&issions an" cli&ate i&pacts &ean cli&actic c!an'e %ill be %it! us #or "eca"es alterin' %ater c)cles1 ti&in'1 an" .ualit) %!ile "ecreasin' suppl)( Coole) in 17 (+eather- 2o-;irector of the Paci@c 5nstitute/s Water Program and M1 in Cnergy and Besources T 0erkeley- OWater and 2limate,P A Twenty-First Century US Water Policy- ed 8uliet 2hristian-1mith and Peter )leick- p." 5n addition to a &ide range of old, unresolved &ater challenges facing the nation and federal &ater policy makers, several ne& threats are emerging, especially the gro&ing conse$uences for &ater resources and developed &ater systems from a rapidly changing climate. 8isin' 'reen!ouse 'as concentrations #ro& !u&an acti$ities are causin' lar'e-scale c!an'es to t!e Eart!Ks cli&ate( Because o# a ti&e la' bet%een greenhouse gas e&issions an" cli&ate i&pacts, &e kno& that t!ese c!an'es %ill continue e$en i# %e stop e&ittin' greenhouse gases to"a). <i$en our econo&ic "epen"ence on #ossil #uels an" t!e "i9cult political issues associate" %it! e&issions-re"uction strategies, it no& appears ine$itable t!at si'ni2cant cli&atic c!an'es %ill continue to intensify o$er t!e next se$eral "eca"es. 0ecause the &ater cycle and the climate cycle are ine(tricably linked, these changes &ill have maAor implications for our nationNs &ater resources. %he movement of &ater is the primary process by &hich energy is redistributed around the planet. #s temperatures rise, the >o&s of &ater in the hydrologic cycle &ill accelerate. 5n short, cli&ate c!an'e %ill intensi#) t!e %ater c)cle1 alterin' %ater a$ailabilit)1 ti&in'1 .ualit)1 an" "e&an". 5ndeed, all of the &a/or international an" national assess&ents o# cli&ate c!an'es !a$e conclu"e" t!at #res!%ater s)ste&s are a&on' t!e &ost $ulnerable sectors of society (2ompagnucci et al. 24- 1C) 2Q- Kund?e&ic? et al. 2Q- 0ates et al. 26". #n 5ntergovernmental Panel on 2limate 2hange (5P22" technical report on fresh&ater resources released in 26 concludes &ith a very high con@dence that Sclimate change &ill constrain <orth #mericaNs already overallocated &ater resources, thereby increasing competition among agricultural, municipal, industrial, and ecological usesS (0ates et al. 26, 42". J29-294M Si&ultaneous population 'ro%t! on t!e bor"er re'ion exacerbates t!ese co&in' s!orta'es( Witte an" E"en in 17 0ecky and 1usanna- O0order Water 1ource of 2on>ict and 2ooperationP Arroyo; Water Besources Besearch 2enter D : of #ri?ona- httpsKGG&rrc.ari?ona.eduGsitesG&rrc.ari?ona.eduG@lesG#rroyo-242.pdf <ro%in' population couple" %it! increasin' %ater "e&an" is a &a/or issue #or &an) U(S( an" Mexican cities. Durin' t!e past 7+ )ears1 urban populations alon' t!e bor"er !a$e si'ni2cantl) increase". In 7+1+1 1D &illion people li$e" in t!e bor"er re'ion, and proAections sho& continuing population gro&th. B) the year 7+7+, an a""itional estimated D(H &illion people &ill live in the border region, increasin' b) an a""itional G(3 &illion b) 7+3+. %his 'ro%t! lar'el) be'an in 4,E9 %it! t!e initiation o# t!e &a.uila"ora pro'ra&, %!ic! create" incenti$es #or foreign assembly plants to locate in the border region. #fter the <orth #merican 7ree %rade #greement &as put into e3ect in 4,,!, industrial development, especially in Me(ico, rapidly gre&. Harge-scale JDI13 H BeBo Lab Water Af mining and agriculture also prospered in the areaK in"ustries t!at re.uire lar'e $olu&es o# %ater. Cconomic gro&th and Aob creation &ere positive results of these ne& developments, but in#rastructure in t!e re'ion %as not consistently up"ate" to *eep pace %it! the population boom. %his straine" resources an" create" !a5ar"s #or t!e en$iron&ent an" public !ealt! on bot! si"es o# t!e bor"er. LI=SE8 SCE=A8IO?s@ O0 CCOICE , A<8ICULU8EM;OLLUIO=MI=SABILI6M=ILEN !us t!e plan> !e Unite" States #e"eral 'o$ern&ent s!oul" &a*e a$ailable all necessar) resources to expan" cli&ate !)"rolo'ical "ata collection an" s!arin' %it! t!e 'o$ern&ent o# Mexico( Contention %o is Sol$enc) Data collection is an inte'ral part o# an) %ater &ana'e&ent s)ste& un#ortunatel) status .uo eforts !a$e been piece&eal an" lac* t!e necessar) #un"in' an" support( Data is o#ten not s!are"( 0e"eral action &an"atin' an" supportin' %i"esprea" "ata collection an" s!arin' sol$es a"apti$e %ater &ana'e&ent( Coole) in 17 (+eather- 2o-;irector of the Paci@c 5nstitute/s Water Program and M1 in Cnergy and Besources T 0erkeley- OWater and 2limate,P A Twenty-First Century US Water Policy- ed 8uliet 2hristian-1mith and Peter )leick- p." Water &ana'ers and farmers across t!e Unite" States alrea") i&ple&ent a $ariet) o# tec!nolo'ies an" practices to a"apt to current cli&ate- an" %eat!er-relate" ris*s. 7or e(ample, &ater managers implement &ater-conservation and -e=ciency measures to reduce demand, thereby reducing vulnerability to &ater supply constraints. 7armers shift the timing and types of crops gro&n according to seasonal &eather forecasts. !ou'! it is i&portant to buil" on these tra"itional ris* &iti'ation &easures1 %e cannot assu&e t!at existin' approac!es are su9cient to a"apt to #uture cli&ate con"itions( Action is nee"e" no%( #s noted by Bobert Bepetto, Jsa)in' t!at t!e U(S( can a"apt "oes not i&pl) t!at it %ill a"apt1 at least not in t!e e9cient an" ti&el) %a) nee"e" i# &a/or "a&a'es are to be a$oi"e"J (26, 2". !e Unite" States &ust beco&e a 'lobal lea"er in s&art preparation an" a"aptation to cli&ate c!an'e. #fter years of inaction, the federal government is slo&ly moving in this direction. 5n the follo&ing section, &e provide recommendations on ho& to e(pand and accelerate these e3orts. !e lac* o# lon'-ter& "ata sets !a&pers our abilit) to un"erstan" cli&ate c!an'e i&pacts on %ater resources an" "e$elop appropriate adaptation strate'ies. #s noted by Hettenmaier et al. (26", Jobser$ations are critical to un"erstan"in' t!e nature o# past !)"rolo'ic c!an'es an" #or interpretin' t!e pro/ections o# potential efects on #uture c!an'esJ (4!E". With fe& e(ceptions, ho&ever, "ata on %ater resources are ina"e.uate( Lon'-ter& scienti2c obser$ations are nee"e" to un"erstan" Eart!Ks s)ste& processes an" "e$elop an" test &o"els. # recent <overnment Accountability O=ce anal)sis #oun" that #e"eral resource &ana'ers JDI13 O BeBo Lab Water Af lac*e" a"e.uate "ata an" in#or&ation Jto plan #or an" &ana'e t!e efects o# cli&ate c!an'e on the federal resources they manageS ()#. 2Q, SWhat )#. 7oundS". Measure&ent an" &onitorin' o# our nationNs %ater resource is critical for management of this precious resource. %he :1 )eological 1urvey (US<S@ is responsible #or collectin'1 anal)5in'1 an" "istributin' "ata on %ater availability and use. %hese data include stream >o& information from Q, national stream gauges, E ground&ater monitoring &ells, and state data on &ater use to create national &ater-use estimates. Data collection acti$ities, ho&ever, !a$e been se$erel) un"er#un"e"( Strea& Ao% 'au'es "esi'ne" to &onitor response to lon'-ter& cli&ate $ariabilit) an" c!an'e are un"er#un"e" an" !a$e "ecline" b) 7I percent since t!e late 4,H+s (@gure 4.2". E$en less in#or&ation is a$ailable on ot!er %ater resource co&ponents, especially ground&ater and &ater use. <ational &ater-use data are only collected every @ve years and are not provided in a timely manner due to limited sta=ng and budgetary constraints. %he 29 data, for e(ample, &as not released until late .ctober 2,. 5n order to understand the potential impacts of climate change and plan adaptation e3orts, t!e #e"eral 'o$ern&ent &ust ensure t!at t!e US<S !as su9cient resources to collect an" &aintain lon'-ter& "ata on *e) c!aracteristics o# %ater resources1 inclu"in' strea& Ao%1 'roun"%ater le$els1 %ater .ualit)1 an" %ater use. %he 1ecure Water #ct in 2, calls for a <ational Water 2ensus and increased funding for the :1)1 stream gauge net&ork, &hich is an important step for&ard. 7ull appropriations, ho&ever, have not been provided. 2ongress must ensure that the <ational Water 2ensus and the monitoring net&orks receive full funding. 8ele$ant cli&ate "ata1 in#or&ation1 pro"ucts1 an" ser$ices are not %i"el) a$ailable or easil) accessible( %his may be changing. %he 2onsolidated #ppropriations #ct of 24 directed the <ational #cademy of Public #dministration to e(plore options for a <ational .ceanic and #tmospheric #dministration (<.##" climate service. 5n 7ebruary 24, <.## and the ;epartment of 2ommerce announced their intent to establish the <ational 2limate 1ervice, &hich &ould be designed to provide climate data, products, and services to @sheries managers, farmers, state governments, &ater managers, and other users. # more detailed report outlining the vision, mission, and strategic plan for the <ational 2limate 1ervice &as released in 1eptember 24 (<.## 24". 5n 7ebruary 244, President .bama released a budget re$uest that &ould fund the <ational 2limate 1ervice. Con'ress s!oul" ensure t!at t!is re.uest is appro$e" so t!at #e"eral a'encies1 inclu"in' =OAA1 Cnvironmental Protection #gency (E;A", Ar&) Corps o# En'ineers1 =ational 8esources Conser$ation Ser$ice1 an" US<S1 can expan" an" coor"inate t!e ran'e o# cli&ate ser$ices a$ailable. Alt!ou'! cli&ate c!an'e is a 'lobal proble&1 its i&pacts are local. #ccordingly, detailed assessments of climate change risks re$uire thorough analysis at local and regional scales. Whereas climate change impact studies have been done in some areas, such as 2alifornia and Washington, good assessments are lacking in others. #dditional analysis is needed at the regional level to better understand climate change impacts. Wit!out si'ni2cant in$est&ent to 'enerate t!e in#or&ation nee"e" to un"erstan" pro/ecte" i&pacts1 cli&ate c!an'e %ill re&ain a $a'ue an" un%iel") t!reat( !e #e"eral 'o$ern&ent &ust ta*e an acti$e role in coor"inatin' an" catalo'uin' i&pact an" $ulnerabilit) assess&ents to ensure t!at all re'ions are 'i$en a"e.uate attention. #dditionally, the federal government must &ork directly &ith local &ater managers to ensure that the information generated by these assessments is disseminated &idely. J296-2EM !e a9r&ati$e 2lls necessar) 'aps in "ata collection , status .uo &o"els "o not al%a)s ta*e cli&ate c!an'e into account , alterin' it to !a$e lon' ter& "ata sets an" pre"icti$e &o"els is *e) to a"aptation( Coole) in 17 (+eather- 2o-;irector of the Paci@c 5nstitute/s Water Program and M1 in Cnergy and Besources T 0erkeley- OWater and 2limate,P A Twenty-First Century US Water Policy- ed 8uliet 2hristian-1mith and Peter )leick- p." !e efects o# cli&ate c!an'e on %ater "e&an" are #ar less stu"ie" than are the impacts on hydrology. 5ndeed, the 2limate 2hange 1cience Program report fails to mention impacts on &ater demand. .verall, ho&ever, "e&an"s #or %ater JDI13 F BeBo Lab Water Af in so&e sectors are sensiti$e to cli&ate1 particularl) a'riculture an" urban lan"scapes1 an" are li*el) to increase( ;lants typically re.uire &ore %ater as te&peratures rise, although higher atmospheric carbon dio(ide concentrations can reduce &ater re$uirements under some conditions. Because a'riculture accounts #or about H+ percent o# %ater use in t!e Unite" States (Kenny et al. 2,",4 "e&an" c!an'es in t!is sector &a) !a$e broa" i&plications. In some urban areas1 la%ns an" other out"oor uses are &a/or consu&ers o# %ater1 accountin' #or up to O+ percent o# total resi"ential %ater use in so&e !ot1 "r) areas1 an" t!ese "e&an"s %oul" increase un"er !otter te&peratures( War&er te&peratures %ill also increase t!e a&ount o# %ater nee"e" #or coolin' s)ste&s. More researc! is nee"e" on t!ese kinds of cli&ate-sensiti$e "e&an"s, on a regional basis. !e a9r&ati$e is a no-re'rets polic) #or cli&ate a"aptation , e$en i# it pro$es insu9cient or unnecessar) in so&e scenarios it still bene2ts t!e US 'enerall) in e9cienc) an" econo&ics an" causes a s!i#t to proacti$e polic) &a*in'( Coole) in 17 (+eather- 2o-;irector of the Paci@c 5nstitute/s Water Program and M1 in Cnergy and Besources T 0erkeley- OWater and 2limate,P A Twenty-First Century US Water Policy- ed 8uliet 2hristian-1mith and Peter )leick- p." 1ome degree of cli&ate c!an'e is no& una$oi"able an" all re'ions an" sectors are $ulnerable to cli&ate c!an'e i&pacts to varying degrees. %hus, a"aptation &ust be a central ele&ent o# cli&ate change polic). %he 5P22 (2Q" de@nes adaptation as Sinitiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against actual and e(pected climate change e3ectsS (QE". !ere is a &ide $ariet) o# a"aptation options for the various &ater management activities (table 4.4", ran'in' #ro& buil"in' or e(panding reservoir capacit) to i&pro$in' %ater-use e9cienc). !ese a"aptation acti$ities can ta*e &an) #or&s- for e(ample, they can be'proacti$e or reacti$e1 structural or nonstructural1 supply-side or demand-side, and more. # recent 5P22 report notes that Jtra"itions an" institutions in =ort! A&erica !a$e encoura'e" a "ecentralise" response #ra&e%or* %!ere a"aptation ten"s to be reacti$e, unevenly distributed, and #ocuse" on copin' %it! rat!er t!an pre$entin' proble&sJ (0ates et al. 26, 4!". %hus, "e$elopin' a proacti$e a"aptation strate') %ill very likely re.uire t!e Unite" States to c!art a ne% course.2 8i'i"1 expensi$e1 an" irre$ersible actions can increase $ulnerabilit) to cli&ate c!an'e an" ulti&atel) t!e lon'-ter& costs (see follo&ing section". <i$en t!e uncertaint) associate" %it! cli&ate c!an'e1 planners s!oul" support those policies that provide social, economic, and environmental bene@ts, regardless of climate change impacts'referred to as Sno regretS policies. #n analysis of impacts and adaptation for the &ater sector in 2anada, for e(ample, identi@es several no-re'ret a"aptation options1 inclu"in' 'reater e&p!asis on %ater conser$ation, i&pro$e" %eat!er-&onitorin' eforts1 an" better plannin' an" prepare"ness for >oods and droughts (Hemmen and Warren 2!". W!ile the a$ailable no-regret options &a) not be su9cient to a""ress t!e #ull ran'e o# cli&ate c!an'e i&pacts, t!ese options s!oul" be 'i$en priorit). J29E-29QM JDI13 G BeBo Lab Water Af Last1 it:s a tr) or "ie #or t!e af , e$en i# t!e ne'ati$e %ins so&e sol$enc) "e2cits t!e ine$itabilit) o# cli&ate c!an'e:s efect on !)"roc)cles &eans an) &o$e to%ar" proacti$e response is better t!an not!in'( Wil"er et al in 1+ (Margaret, Christopher A Scott, Nicolas Pineda Pablos, Robert G Varady, Gregg M Garfin, and Jamie Mc!oy" #atin American St$dies and %dall Center for St$dies in P$blic Policy % of Ari&ona, School of Geopgraphy and 'e!elopment and %dall Center % of Ari&ona, P$blic Policy St$dies l Colegio de Sonora, %dall Center % of Ari&ona, (nstit$te of the n!ironment and School of Nat$ral Reso$rces and n!ironment % of Ari&ona, and School of Geography and 'e!elopment % of Ari&ona" )Adapting Across *o$ndaries+ Climate Change, Social #earning, and Resilience in the %,S,- Me.ico *order Region,/ Annals of the Association of American Geographers 011(23" Scholar3 <evertheless, &e @nd that t&o of the three initiatives discussed hold promising adaptive potential. !ese strate'ies, if pursued, coul" increase social learnin' a&on' urban %ater &ana'ers1 e&er'enc)-prepare"ness planners1 an" coastal-resources planners. 0oth formal and informal net%or*s are being a"$ance" t!rou'! sustaine" an" iterati$e interactions a&on' "iferent resource &ana'ers &ithin the #ri?onaD1onora region, facilitated both by boundary people (e.g., the research team and local stakeholders in each site &ho plan and facilitate meetings" and by boundary obAects (e.g., the &orkshops and the binational climate summary". Wor*in' to'et!er to pro"uce an" re2ne t!e binational cli&ate su&&ar) %it! a re'ional #ocus on a s!are" cli&ate re'i&e (e.g., the monsoon" illustrates t!e copro"uction o# scienti2c *no%le"'e t!at can inAuence polic) %it!in t!e re'ion an" encoura'e &ore sustainable plannin'. 5n the end, ne% co&&unities o# practice &i'!t e&er'e t!at institutionali5e re'ional cli&ate science an" 3cli&atic t!in*in'4 into their current an" #uture %ater &ana'e&ent practices, s!are institutional "ata &ithin the community, an" are committed to collaboration. Mo$in' be)on" the entrenc!e" patterns o# "i$isi$e and bounded "ealin's on %ater management &i'!t increase re'ional resilience an" ofer communities &ore capacit) to #ace loo&in' c!an'es. !e obstacles associate" %it! transboun"ar) en'a'e&ent are steep but t!e conse.uences o# noncooperation are "ire. ransboun"ar) scientist,sta*e!ol"er collaboration &i'!t !ol" t!e *e) to con#rontin' cli&ate c!an'e in $ulnerable bor"erlan"s. JDI13 1+ BeBo Lab Water Af NNScenariosLL JDI13 11 BeBo Lab Water Af NWater S!orta'eL JDI13 17 BeBo Lab Water Af 1AC Bor"er populations are con#ronte" %it! "ouble exposure to %ater s!orta'e t!rou'! cli&ate c!an'e an" "isplace&ent #ro& in"ustriali5ation pro/ects( Wil"er et al in 1+ (Margaret, Christopher A Scott, Nicolas Pineda Pablos, Robert G Varady, Gregg M Garfin, and Jamie Mc!oy" #atin American St$dies and %dall Center for St$dies in P$blic Policy % of Ari&ona, School of Geopgraphy and 'e!elopment and %dall Center % of Ari&ona, P$blic Policy St$dies l Colegio de Sonora, %dall Center % of Ari&ona, (nstit$te of the n!ironment and School of Nat$ral Reso$rces and n!ironment % of Ari&ona, and School of Geography and 'e!elopment % of Ari&ona" )Adapting Across *o$ndaries+ Climate Change, Social #earning, and Resilience in the %,S,- Me.ico *order Region,/ Annals of the Association of American Geographers 011(23" Scholar3 !e U(S(,Mexico bor"er re'ion'as a $ulnerable area un"er'oin' urbani5ation1 in"ustriali5ation1 an" a'ricultural intensi2cation-is a textboo* case of 3"ouble exposure4 (Heichenko and ./0rien 26" to cli&atic an" 'lobali5ation processes (Hiverman and Merideth 22- Bay et al. 2Q". !e U(S( Sout!%est an" nort!%est Mexico1 %!ere 'lobal cli&ate &o"els pro/ect se$ere precipitation "ecreases an" te&perature increases1 !as been calle" 3t!e #ront line o# on'oin' cli&ate c!an'e4 (+arrison 2,, 4- see 7igure 4". Anticipate" probable i&pacts inclu"e longer, more extre&e "rou'!ts1 !i'!er %ater an" ener') "e&an"1 "ecrease" inAo%s to ri$ers an" strea&s1 an" increase" urban, a'ricultural conAict o$er %ater (5ntergovernmental Panel on 2limate 2hange 2Q- 1eager et al. 2Q". 1ince the 4,6s, t!e bor"er re'ion !as 'ro%n #aster t!an eac! countr):s national a$era'e. 5n the :nited 1tates, an e(panding leisure class of retirees, seasonal tourists, and other Oamenity seekersP are in>uencing &ater management decisions about consumption and conservation. In Mexico1 rapi" urban 'ro%t!1 driven by availability of Aobs created by hundreds of foreign o&ned ma$uiladoras, !as s!i#te" %ater-use priorities a%a) #ro& t!e past #ar&in' an" ranc!in' econo&). #lthough agriculture remains the largest user of &ater in Ari5ona (Q percent of total demand- #ri?ona ;epartment of Water Besources 2," an" Sonora (6E percent of consumptive use- 2omisiUon <acional del #gua 26", 'ro%t! patterns are "ri$in' a s!i#t o# %ater to urban areas. In Mexico:s nort!%est1 one .uarter o# a.ui#ers are se$erel) o$er"ra#te". 5n 1onora ,9 percent of the population has potable &ater supply and 6! percent has se&erage service (2omisiUon <acional del#gua 26".Many households that have hookups e(perience daily interruptions to &ater service, ho&ever, and tap &ater is generally not of drinking $uality. Efecti$e institutional response to cli&ate "ata is *e) to resol$e %ater s!orta'es on poor an" rural bor"er populations( Wil"er et al in 1+ (Margaret, Christopher A Scott, Nicolas Pineda Pablos, Robert G Varady, Gregg M Garfin, and Jamie Mc!oy" #atin American St$dies and %dall Center for St$dies in P$blic Policy % of Ari&ona, School of Geopgraphy and 'e!elopment and %dall Center % of Ari&ona, P$blic Policy St$dies l Colegio de Sonora, %dall Center % of Ari&ona, (nstit$te of the n!ironment and School of Nat$ral Reso$rces and n!ironment % of Ari&ona, and School of Geography and 'e!elopment % of Ari&ona" )Adapting Across *o$ndaries+ Climate Change, Social #earning, and Resilience in the %,S,- Me.ico *order Region,/ Annals of the Association of American Geographers 011(23" Scholar3 Pulnerabilit) is con"itione" b) socioeconomic, institutional, and political as &ell as environmental factors, including climate (#dger et al. 2E". #ssessing vulnerability re$uires consideration not only of exposure to cli&ate c!an'e but also of t!e ris* associate" %it! t!at exposure an" t!e capacit) o# an in"i$i"ual1 co&&unit)1 or nation to a"apt to impacts of JDI13 13 BeBo Lab Water Af climate change (#dger et al. 2E". *ulnerability in the border region/s &ater sector is thus a #unction o# intensi2e" socioecono&ic processes'rapid gro&th, accelerated globali?ation'an" en$iron&ental c!an'e. 1ocioeconomic vulnerability is also con"itione" b) a'e1 et!nicit)1 'en"er1 or class. 7or e(ample, elderly people and #frican #mericans in poor neighborhoods &ere most at risk to the devastation of +urricane Katrina (*erchick 26". In t!e bor"er re'ion1 the !i'! concentration of +ispanics, especially in poor U(S( counties an" in unplanne" Mexican colonias1 increases $ulnerabilit) #or t!ese populations. ;eople &i'!t be at !i'!er ris* to "rou'!t i# %ater beco&es scarce and therefore more e(pensive, if they lack su=cient resources to access or purchase nontraditional &ater sources. #fter storms, &ater trucks (pipas" that service marginal neighborhoods might not have access to homes via >ooded streets. !e re'ion:s capacit) to respon" to t!ese an" ot!er !i'!-$ulnerabililt) %ater- relate" c!allen'es "epen"s lar'el) on its %ater &ana'e&ent institutions( Water insecurity is a form of structural violence at the root of gender, po&er and economic oppression - 8eremy Allouc!e 7+1+ 5nstitute of ;evelopment 1tudies %he sustainability and resilience of global &ater and food systemsK Political analysis of the interplay bet&een security, resource scarcity, political systems and global trade $ 7ood Policy Aournal homepageK &&&.elsevier.comGlocateGfoodpol What about the futureV 5t is clear that &ater and food management &ill face maAor challenges due to increasing uncertainties caused by climate change and fast changing socio-economic boundary conditions. +ydro meteorological records and climate change scenarios provide evidence that &ater resources are vulnerable &ith strong conse$uences for human security. 7ive hundred million people &orld&ide currently live in countries &here supply is chronically short- the 5ntergovernmental Panel on 2limate 2hange (5P22" predicts these numbers &ill rise as climate change a3ects surface &ater levels that depend on rainfall and glacial melting (0ates et al., 26". +eat&aves and &ater shortages &ill have an adverse impact on safe drinking &ater and sanitation, &ith disproportionate e3ects on the poorest and most vulnerable. #ccording to studies by the 7einstein 5nternational 2enter, the number of people a3ected globally by natural disasters (including droughts and >oods" has been increasing steadily, by an estimated 9,DE, people per decade, since the early 4,Qs. %he number of reported disasters has also increased year on year, from an average annual total of , in the 4,Qs, to a @gure close to !9 per year in the present decade. %he data and proAections by the 7einstein 5nternational center suggest a 2W increase in e(treme event fre$uency (Mackinnon et al., 2,". 5n relation to the &aterDfood ne(us, as climate temperature e(tremes are predicted to increase in fre$uency and intensity in future, droughts and >oods may become more severe and more fre$uent and this could potentially dramatically reduce crop yields and livestock numbers and productivity especially in semiarid areas. %his means that the poorest regions &ith high levels of chronic undernourishment &ill also be e(posed to the highest degree of instability in food production. 2limate change may a3ect food systems in several &ays ranging from direct e3ects on crop production (e.g. changes in rainfall leading to droughtG>ooding or &armerGcooler temperatures leading to changes in the length of gro&ing season" to changes in markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure. Most studies found that climate change &ill have a highly negative impact for developing countries in terms of crop productivity and increase risk of hunger, especially in 1ub-1aharan #frica. (Bosegrant and 2line, 2F". Most of the research up to no& has been on the bio- JDI13 1D BeBo Lab Water Af physical aspects of production (land suitability, crop yields, pest regimes D )regory et al., 4,,,". %he possible impact of climate change on food accessibility and utili?ation has been neglected. Becent research by )regory et al. (29" and 1chmidhuber and %ubiello %his article has provided an overvie& of the current and future challenges in terms of global food and &ater systems. %he maAor focus of the argument has been on ho& resource scarcity is a contested and subAective concept &hich cannot fully e(plain con>ict, political instability or food insecurity. %he politics of ine$uality and allocation are much more important variables in e(plaining &ater and food insecurity. %his is particularly true for con>icts. #lthough resource scarcity has been linked to international &ars, the current data sho&s that most con>ict over &ater and food are much more local. 0ut there again, although resource scarcity can be linked to malnutrition, hunger and &ater insecurity, in the maAority of cases, &ater and food insecurity are rarely about competition over resources but rather re>ect the politics of allocation and ine$uality. 5n this respect, &ar and con>icts aggravate these insecurities not Aust on the short term but also on the long term. #t the global level, food security has considerably improved and provides the means to address these insecurities. %rade can certainly be seen as a &ay to address access for countries that are under severe stress in terms of food and &ater and provides logical grounds for $uestioning the various &ater and food &ars scenarios. #lthough global trade and technological innovation are key drivers in providing stable and resilient global systems, the most destabili?ing global &ater-related threat is increasing food prices and hunger. .verall, decision-makers should sho& greater concern for the human beings &ho make their living in agriculture, so that those at risk of livelihood and food-security failures, especially under anticipated scenarios of climate change, &ill be less deprived. 2urrent debates linked to global food security and climate fail to address the political dimension of resource scarcity &hich is primarily linked to the politics of ine$uality, gender and po&er. More "eat!s #ro& structural t!an &ost %ars co&bine" , lar'est cause o# "eat! internationall)( 0isc!er an" Brauer in 3 ;ietrich and 8urgen- %WC<%X R:C1%5.<1 7.B PC#2C C2.<.M521K # BC1C#B2+ #)C<;#- ;efence and Peace Cconomics, 4!QE-62EQ, *olume 4!, 5ssue F, 2F, Pages 22F D 2FE- httpKGG&&&.aug.eduGYsbaAmbGpaper-;PC;780.P;7 ;o$ert) an" !i'! une&plo)&ent1 especiall) in t!e presence o# conspicuous %ealt!1 contribute to #rustration1 social unrest1 an" so&eti&es ci$il %ar. 5t is easy to design an economy that produces lu(uries for a fe&. 7ar more challenging is to design an economic system that satis@es the human needs for food, clothing, homes, education, and medical care of all. What are the characteristics of such an economyV What obstacles prevent it from emerging, and ho& can they be overcomeV )altung coined the notion of 3structural $iolence4 (as opposed to direct violence" for social con"itions t!at cause a$oi"able !u&an suferin' an" "eat!1 e$en i# t!ere is no speci2c actor co&&ittin' t!e $iolence. Kohler and #lcock (4,QE" have estimated that structural $iolence causes about one !un"re" ti&es as &an) "eat!s eac! )ear as all international an" ci$il %ars co&bine"( It is as i# o$er 7++ Ciros!i&a bo&bs %ere "roppe" eac! )ear on the children of the &orld, but t!e &e"ia #ail to report it because it is less JDI13 1I BeBo Lab Water Af "ra&atic t!an a bo&b explosion( +o& can &e estimate the loss of life resulting from poverty and une$ual income distributionV +o& can &e reduce itV Water Shortages Cause Global Destabilization <leic* 17 httpKGG&&&.hu=ngtonpost.comGpeter-h-gleickGtime-for-a-24st-century-uLbL4,2FEQ.html O%ime for a 24st 2entury :.1. Water PolicyP Water-relate" proble&s also t!reaten our national securit)( In our 'loball) inte'rate" econo&)1 %ater proble&s in ot!er countries re$erberate bac* !o&e( ;olitical insecurit) an" instabilit) is 'ro%in' in regions %!ere access to #res!%ater is a proble&, including especiall) in =ort! A#rica1 t!e Mi""le East1 an" Sout! Asia, &ith gro&ing concerns about tensions in the central #sian republics. Less pre"ictable !ot spots are also li*el) to appear an" there are 'ro%in' reports o# $iolence an" political "isruption o$er %ater s!orta'es( in parts of #frica. Just t!is &ont! t!e BBC reporte" t!at o$er 1++ people !a$e "ie" in conAicts bet&een farmers and cattle herders o$er land and %ater in Qen)a. 0ecause conAicts o$er %ater contribute to broa"er political tensions an" conAicts, diplomatic e3orts to reduce the risks of con>ict must no& include an environmental component. 7urthermore, military preparedness should include an improved understanding and analysis of the threats associated &ith &ater. JDI13 1H BeBo Lab Water Af A.ui#er Collapse ;ollution1 an" saline %ill cause %alls in a.ui#er to collapse- Wit!out 3e.uitable an" reasonable use4 transboun"ar) a.ui#ers %ill be &is&ana'e" causin' proble&s( Broo*s1 13- International Institute for Sustainable Development, Canada David, Discussion Paper 1325 Governance of transboundary auifers! "e# c$allen%es and ne# opportunities& 'e%ardless of #$et$er t$e focus is transboundary surface or %round #ater, it is critical t$e %overnin% principle of euitable and reasonable use& of #ater is accepted by all co(basin states) *$is is of course more easily said t$an done, as indicated by t$e varyin% vie#s on $o# to apply t$at p$rase in t$e numerous #ater conventions t$at $ave been si%ned in recent years) *$e +ella%io Draft *reaty for %overnin% transboundary auifers5 describes ei%$t %eneral factors, ran%in% from $ydro(%eolo%y to comparative costs, all of #$ic$ must be considered #$en applyin% ,euitable and reasonable, to any specific case) -et us loo. more closely at t#o considerations t$at reflect t$e social and political c$aracteristics of auifers) /uity in some form is essential to t$e ne%otiation and ultimate adoption of any a%reement related to t$e %overnance of s$ared #ater resources) 'at$er t$an a simple uantitative s$arin% of #ater resources, a more nuanced form of euity is reuired inorder to ta.e into account #$at is politically acceptable to eac$ side)0 1olf2 reports t$at successful a%reements for s$arin% #ater $ave %enerally proceeded as eac$ side %radually reco%ni3es t$e demands of t$e ot$er side4s5, rat$er t$an by establis$in% a priori principles or ri%$ts) Similarly, -aut3e and Giordano6 ar%ue t$at most successful a%reements favour a needs(based rat$er t$an a prior(use basis) /ven today, some concept of fairness typically trumps calculations of economic efficiency in international ne%otiations over #ater resources)7,18,11,12 9 dilemma t$at often arises #it$ all transboundary #ater a%reements is t$e need to balance t$e principle of euitable and reasonable use #it$ t$e principle t$at no state cause si%nificant $arm to t$e value of t$e #ater resource for t$e ot$er state4s5 in t$e basin) Differin% formulations of proposed a%reements %ive priority to one or t$e ot$er of t$ese principles, or indicate t$at t$ey $ave eual standin%) Per$aps t$ere is a reasonable #ay to resolve t$is dilemma in t$e case of transboundary auifers) Given t$e sensitivity of auifers to pollution and t$e near impossibility of decontamination, it is reasonable to assert t$at for any auifer, but particularly for transboundary auifers, t$e principle of no si%nificant $arm must $ave priority) If it does not, euitable and reasonable use #ill become more and more difficult to ac$ieve #it$ eac$ passin% year) Some of t$e auifers #ill $ave become too saline or too polluted for use, and ot$ers #ill $ave collapsed as t$e #alls bet#een pores erode) JDI13 1O BeBo Lab Water Af Crop 0ailure Untreate" %ater pollution causin' "eat!1 crop #ailure1 an" "iseases Q!an R Ca.1 17- Department of Zoology, Abdul Wali Khan University, Department of Botany, Hazara University International Journal of Recent Scientific Research- Pollution load in industrial effluent and ground water due to marble industries in district buner, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan Water pollution is a major global problem which requires ongoing evaluation and revision of water resource policy at all levels. It has been suggested that it is the leading worldwide cause of deaths and diseases (Pink and Daniel, 2006) and that it accounts for the deaths of more than 14,000 people daily (West and Larry, 2006). Surface and groundwater have often been studied and managed as separate resources although they are interrelated (Denver, 1998). Surface water seeps through the soil and becomes groundwater. Industrialization plays a vital role in growth and development of any country. In Pakistan industrial estate establishment was started with the introduction of 1st five years plane 1955-1960, which laid emphasis on the establishment of large estates in the country (Nasrullah et al., 2006). The rapid industrialization has direct and indirect adverse effect on our environment as it discharges untreated effluents which cause air, water, soil and soil solid waste pollution (Reston, 2001). Untreated water near the point of disposal, create foul smell and bad odor (Kulkarni, 1979). This bad odor is due to decomposition of floating solids present in untreated sewage. The net result is large scale pollution of the water bodies which may act as a source of water supply for domestic use of inhabitants of localities. This loss of water quality is causing health hazards and death of human, livestock and death of aquatic lives, crop failure and loss of aesthetics (Anonymous 1992). <lobal-War&in' relate" a'riculture collapses %ill "estro) ci$ili5ation Bro%n 7++G Hester, environmental analyst, founder of the World&atch 5nstitute, and founder and president of the Carth Policy 5nstitute, O2.:H; 7..; 1+.B%#)C1 0B5<) ;.W< 25*5H5Z#%5.<V,P 1cienti@c #merican, May2,, *ol. F 5ssue 9, p9-9Q 7or most of us, t!e i"ea t!at ci$ili5ation itself coul" "isinte'rate probably see&s preposterous. Who &ould not @nd it hard to think seriously about such a complete departure from &hat &e e(pect of ordinary lifeV What evidence could make us heed a &arning so dire--and ho& &ould &e go about responding to itV We are so inure" to a lon' list o# !i'!l) unli*el) catastrop!es t!at %e are $irtuall) pro'ra&&e" to "is&iss t!e& all %it! a %a$e o# t!e !an"> 1ure, our civili?ation might devolve into chaos-- and Carth might collide &ith an asteroid, too[\ 7or many years I !a$e stu"ie" 'lobal a'ricultural1 population1 en$iron&ental an" econo&ic tren"s an" t!eir interactions( !e co&bine" efects o# t!ose tren"s JDI13 1F BeBo Lab Water Af an" t!e political tensions t!e) 'enerate point to t!e brea*"o%n o# 'o$ern&ents an" societies. Xet 5, too, have resisted the idea that #oo" s!orta'es coul" brin' "o%n not only individual governments but also our 'lobal ci$ili5ation(S 5 can no longer ignore that risk. .ur continuing failure to deal &ith the environmental declines that are undermining the &orld food economy--&ost i&portant1 #allin' %ater tables, eroding soils and rising temperatures--#orces &e to conclu"e t!at suc! a collapse is possible( Ci'! #oo" prices an" #oo" insecurit) is co¶ti$el) t!e <8EAES t!reat to !u&anit)( Causes #aile" states1 terroris& an" in"epen"entl) collapses ci$ili5ation Bro%n 7++G Hester, environmental analyst, founder of the World&atch 5nstitute, and founder and president of the Carth Policy 5nstitute, O2.:H; 7..; 1+.B%#)C1 0B5<) ;.W< 25*5H5Z#%5.<V,P 1cienti@c #merican, May2,, *ol. F 5ssue 9, p9-9Q 5n si( of the past nine years &orld grain production has fallen short of consumption, forcing a steady dra&do&n in stocks. When the 26 harvest began, &orld carryover stocks of grain (the amount in the bin &hen the ne& harvest begins" &ere at E2 days of consumption, a near record lo&. 5n response, &orld grain prices in the spring and summer of last year climbed to the highest level ever.\ As "e&an" #or #oo" rises #aster t!an supplies are 'ro%in'1 t!e resultin' #oo"-price inAation puts se$ere stress on t!e 'o$ern&ents o# countries alrea") teeterin' on t!e e"'e o# c!aos. :nable to buy grain or gro& their o&n, !un'r) people ta*e to t!e streets. 5ndeed, even before the steep climb in grain prices in 26, the number of failing states &as e(panding ]see sidebar at left^. Many of their problemNs stem from a failure to slo& the gro&th of their populations. 0ut i# t!e #oo" situation continues to "eteriorate, entire nations %ill brea* "o%n at an ever increasing rate. We !a$e entere" a ne% era in 'eopolitics( In t!e 7+t! centur) t!e &ain t!reat to international securit) %as superpo%er conAictB to"a) it is #ailin' states. 5t is not the concentration of po&er but its absence that puts us at risk.\ States #ail %!en national 'o$ern&ents can no lon'er pro$i"e personal security, #oo" securit) and basic social services such as education and health care. %hey often lose control of part or all of their territory. When governments lose their monopoly on po&er, la& and order begin to disintegrate. #fter a point, countries can become so dangerous that food relief &orkers are no longer safe and their programs are halted- in 1omalia and #fghanistan, deteriorating conditions have already put such programs in Aeopardy.\ 0ailin' states are o# international concern because t!e) are a source o# terrorists1 "ru's1 %eapons an" re#u'ees1 t!reatenin' political stabilit) e$er)%!ere. 1omalia, number one on the 26 list of failing states, has become a base for piracy. 5ra$, number @ve, is a !otbe" #or terrorist trainin'. #fghanistan, number seven, is the &orldNs leading supplier of heroin. 7ollo&ing the massive genocide of 4,,! in B&anda, refugees from that troubled state, thousands of armed soldiers among them, helped to destabili?e neighboring ;emocratic Bepublic of the 2ongo (number si(".\ .ur global civili?ation depends on a functioning net&ork of politically healthy nation-states to control the spread of infectious disease, to manage the international monetary system, to control international terrorism and to reach scores of other common goals. 5f the system for controlling infectious diseases--such as polio, 1#B1 or avian >u--breaks do&n, humanity &ill be in trouble. .nce states fail, no one assumes responsibility for their debt to outside lenders. I# JDI13 1G BeBo Lab Water Af enou'! states "isinte'rate1 t!eir #all %ill t!reaten the stability of 'lobal ci$ili5ation itself. JDI13 7+ BeBo Lab Water Af 0oo" Suppl) Brin* =o c!ec*s to #oo" s!orta'es , We:$e !it a %all Bro%n 7+11 Hester, environmental analyst, founder of the World&atch 5nstitute, and founder and president of the Carth Policy 5nstitute, O%he <e& )eopolitics of 7ood,P httpKGG&&&.foreignpolicy.comGarticlesG244G!G29GtheLne&LgeopoliticsLofLfood More alarming still, t!e %orl" is losin' its abilit) to so#ten t!e efect o# s!orta'es( In response to pre$ious price sur'es1 t!e United States, the &orldNs largest grain producer, %as efecti$el) able to steer t!e %orl" a%a) #ro& potential catastrop!e. 7rom the mid-2th century until 4,,9, the :nited 1tates had either grain surpluses or idle cropland that could be planted to rescue countries in trouble. When the 5ndian monsoon failed in 4,E9, for e(ample, President Hyndon 8ohnsonNs administration shipped one-@fth of the :.1. &heat crop to 5ndia, successfully staving o3 famine. We canKt "o t!at an)&oreB t!e sa#et) cus!ion is 'one( JDI13 71 BeBo Lab Water Af S!orta'e --N ;rice Spi*e Water s!orta'es is t!e BI<<ES internal to #oo" s!orta'es an" price spi*es , Lea"s to #oo" insecurit) an" conAict Bro%n 7++G Hester, environmental analyst, founder of the World&atch 5nstitute, and founder and president of the Carth Policy 5nstitute, O2.:H; 7..; 1+.B%#)C1 0B5<) ;.W< 25*5H5Z#%5.<V,P 1cienti@c #merican, May2,, *ol. F 5ssue 9, p9-9Q What about supplyV %he three environmental trends 5 mentioned earlier--t!e s!orta'e o# #res!%ater1 the loss of topsoil and the rising temperatures (and other e3ects" of global &arming--are &a*in' it increasingly !ar" to expan" t!e %orl"Ks 'rain suppl) #ast enou'! to *eep up %it! "e&an". .f all those trends, ho&ever, t!e sprea" o# %ater s!orta'es poses t!e &ost i&&e"iate t!reat( he biggest challenge here is irrigation, &hich consumes Q percent of the &orldNs fresh&ater. Millions of irrigation &ells in many countries are no& pumping &ater out of underground sources faster than rainfall can recharge them. %!e result is #allin' %ater tables in countries populate" b) !al# t!e %orl"Ks people, including the three big grain producers--2hina, 5ndia and t!e U(S(\ :sually a$uifers are replenishable, but some of the most important ones are notK the SfossilS a$uifers, so called because they store ancient &ater and are not recharged by precipitation. 7or these--including the vast .gallala #$uifer that underlies the :.1. )reat Plains, the 1audi a$uifer and the deep a$uifer under the <orth 2hina Plain--depletion &ould spell the end of pumping. 5n arid regions such a loss could also bring an end to agriculture altogether.\ 5n 2hina the &ater table under the <orth 2hina Plain, an area that produces more than half of the countryNs &heat and a third of its corn, is falling fast. .verpumping has used up most of the &ater in a shallo& a$uifer there, forcing &ell drillers to turn to the regionNs deep a$uifer, &hich is not replenishable. # report by the World 0ank foresees Scatastrophic conse$uences for future generationsS unless &ater use and supply can $uickly be brought back into balance.\ #s &ater tables have fallen and irrigation &ells have gone dry, 2hinaNs &heat crop, the &orldNs largest, has declined by 6 percent since it peaked at 42F million tons in 4,,Q. 5n that same period 2hinaNs rice production dropped ! percent. %he &orldNs most populous nation may soon be importing massive $uantities of grain.\ 0ut &ater shortages are even more &orrying in 5ndia. %here the margin bet&een food consumption and survival is more precarious. Millions of irrigation &ells have dropped &ater tables in almost every state. #s 7red Pearce reported in <e& 1cientistK\ +alf of 5ndiaNs traditional hand-dug &ells and millions of shallo&er tube &ells have already dried up, bringing a spate of suicides among those &ho rely on them. Clectricity blackouts are reaching epidemic proportions in states &here half of the electricity is used to pump &ater from depths of up to a kilometer ]F,Ffeet^.\ # World 0ank study reports that 49 percent of 5ndiaNs food supply is produced by mining ground&ater. 1tated other&ise, 4Q9 million 5ndians consume grain produced &ith &ater from irrigation &ells that &ill soon be e(hausted. !e continue" s!rin*in' o# %ater supplies coul" lea" to un&ana'eable #oo" s!orta'es an" social conAict( JDI13 77 BeBo Lab Water Af Water management is the primary reason &e are facing a food crisis D Plan leads to cooperation and solves Bro%n Jul) H1 7+13 Hester, environmental analyst, founder of the World&atch 5nstitute, and founder and president of the Carth Policy 5nstitute, ON%he real threat to our future is peak &aterN,P httpKGG&&&.guardian.co.ukGglobal-developmentG24FGAulGEG&ater-supplies-shrinking- threat-to-food Peak oil has generated headlines in recent years, but t!e real t!reat to our future is pea* %ater( %here are substitutes for oil, but not for &ater. We can produce food &ithout oil, but not &ithout &ater.\ We drink on average four $uarts (!.9 litres" of &ater per day, in one form or another, but the food &e eat each day re$uires 2, $uarts of &ater to produce, or 9 times as much. <ettin' enou'! %ater to "rin* is relati$el) eas)1 but 2n"in' enou'! to pro"uce t!e e$er-'ro%in' .uantities o# 'rain t!e %orl" consu&es is anot!er &atter.\ <rain consu&e" "irectl) supplies nearl) !al# o# our calories( %hat consumed indirectly as meat, milk, and eggs supplies a large part of the remainder. %oday roughly !W of the &orld grain harvest comes from irrigated land. 5t thus comes as no surprise that irrigation e(pansion has played a central role in tripling the &orld grain harvest over the last si( decades.\ ;uring the last half of the 2th century, the &orldNs irrigated area e(panded from 2F2m acres (,Fm hectares" in 4,9 to QEm in 2. %his tripling of &orld irrigation &ithin 9 years &as historically uni$ue. 0ut since then the gro&th in irrigation has come to a near standstill, e(panding only ,W bet&een 2 and 24. JDI13 73 BeBo Lab Water Af A' Collapse --N 0aile" State Without proper &ater management the &orld &ill be consumed by failed states and geopolitical tensions Bro%n 7+17 Hester, environmental analyst, founder of the World&atch 5nstitute, and founder and president of the Carth Policy 5nstitute, O%he &orld is closer to a food crisis than most people reali?e,P httpKGG&&&.guardian.co.ukGenvironmentG242GAulG2!G&orld-food- crisis-closer Welcome to t!e ne% 'eopolitics o# #oo" scarcit)( #s food supplies tighten, &e are moving into a ne& food era, one in %!ic! it is e$er) countr) #or itsel#.\ %he &orld is in serious trouble on the food front. 0ut t!ere is little e$i"ence t!at political lea"ers !a$e )et 'raspe" t!e &a'nitu"e o# %!at is !appenin'( %he progress in reducing hunger in recent decades has been reversed. Unless %e &o$e .uic*l) to a"opt ne% population, energy, and %ater policies1 t!e 'oal o# era"icatin' !un'er %ill re&ain /ust t!at.\ %ime is running out. !e %orl" &a) be &uc! closer to an unmanageable food shortage D replete &ith soaring food prices, spreading food unrest, and ultimately political instabilit), t!an &ost people realise( JDI13 7D BeBo Lab Water Af <rain Car"s E$en !ar") 'rains stru''le to sur$i$e on t!e US-Mexico bor"er , ;us!es suppl) "o%n an" prices up Qenne") 7+17 Hindsay, C(ternal #3airs ;irector for 1orghum 2hecko3, OMe(ican Market .3ers .pportunity for 1outh %e(as )rain 1orghum,P httpKGGsorghumchecko3.comGpress- releasesGme(ican-market-o3ers-opportunity-for-south-te(as-grain-sorghumG With the Ha <ina &eather pattern e(pected to continue, t!e Sout! ;lains o# exas once a'ain see&s susceptible to "rou'!t( <i$en t!e natural "rou'!t tolerance associate" %it! sor'!u& an" "e&an" opportunities #ro& Mexico1 re'ions li*e t!e 8io <ran"e Palle) an" t!e exas Coastal Ben" are %ell positione" to plant an increase in sor'!u& acres. Purchasing more than Q6 million bushels of grain sorghum annually, Me(ico is one of the most important markets for :.1. sorghum. OMexico is t!e pre"o&inant price "ri$er #or U(S( sor'!u&,P says Kevin Boepke, manager of 5nternational .perations for the :.1. )rains 2ouncil. O5n any given year, Mexico alone accounts #or roughly 29 to 3+ percent o# U(S( sor'!u& exports(4 While t!e "rou'!t !as afecte" nu&erous sor'!u& 'ro%in' re'ions1 particularl) exas, there is potential silver lining for 242 sorghum crop. 8ohn Miller &ith 1outh&est #g 2onsulting believes the strong demand for :.1. sorghum in Me(ico &ill return as ne& crop supplies become available. O!e "e&an" #or sor'!u& b) Mexico s!oul" increase 'i$en t!at t!e U(S( &ar*et is co&in' of o# a se$ere "rou'!t in 244, even despite some recent rains that could boost production,P Miller said. O%he drought, coupled &ith the :.1. running lo& on sorghum, helped to create high basis levels for corn. %herefore, the Me(ican sorghum market should be primed for taking ne& sorghum supplies.P %his return to the :.1. market has begun any&here from late 8uly to late .ctober, after Me(ico end-users utili?e grain gro&n in their o&n country. 5n addition, Me(ican users appreciate that U(S( sor'!u& is !ar$este" at a &oisture an" .ualit) le$el %ell-suite" to t!eir nee"s( In Januar)1 t!e U(S( Depart&ent o# A'riculture reporte" sor'!u& exports %ere "o%n %it! slu''is! export sales. +o&ever, Boepke said "e&an" #or 'rain sor'!u& continues to be an" %ill al%a)s re&ain stron'( !at is particularl) true in Mexico %!ere t!e crop is consi"ere" b) &an) Mexican li$estoc* pro"ucers as t!e opti&al 'rain #or #ee"in' li$estoc*( OMany people don/t reali?e it, but after 2hina, Me(ico is proAected to be the largest gro&th market for :.1. grains during the ne(t 2 years,P Boepke said. Me(ico consumes massive amounts of 1orghum Wheat from %e(as Qenne") 7+17 Hindsay, C(ternal #3airs ;irector for 1orghum 2hecko3, OMe(ican Market .3ers .pportunity for 1outh %e(as )rain 1orghum,P httpKGGsorghumchecko3.comGpress- releasesGme(ican-market-o3ers-opportunity-for-south-te(as-grain-sorghumG Miller sai" since t!e U(S( is Mexico:s closest exporter o# sor'!u&1 exas %ill a'ain be an i&portant source o# #ee" 'rain( One o# t!e best %a)s #or exas to be an i&portant pla)er in Mexico is to !a$e a crop( 3Once cross-bor"er &erc!an"isers see supplies "e$elopin' in JDI13 7I BeBo Lab Water Af t!e 2el" in t!e U(S(1 co&petition %ill start to "e$elop an" basis le$els s!oul" 2r& .uic*l) a#ter !ar$est14 he said. With at least modest amounts of moisture before planting, farmers &ill start thinking about the &ater demands of an entire season, Miller said. %his can often lead to choosing more sorghum relative to cotton or corn across the 1outh Plains on non-irrigated acres. <rain is 'ro%n in Cali#ornia all t!e %a) to t!e bor"er Qupers 7+13 Karl, &riter, %he 1hepherd/s )rain, httpKGG&&&.shepherdsgrain.comGhomeG$uicklinksGne&sletterG24FGshepherd-s-grain- southern-california-partnershipG 1hepherdNs )rain has a &orking relationship &ith ;enn) =e%&an out o# 0resno1 Cali#ornia %!o !as a ric! !istor) %it! UC Da$is an" pro"ucers all t!e %a) sout! to t!e Mexican bor"er pro"ucin' 'rain in t!eir rotation( 2ombining that &ith the #;M milling access in Hos #ngeles has created a perfect scenario. <rains are a pri&ar) export #ro& t!e Unite" States to Mexico Salin 7+11 ;elmy, Cconomist at :1;#, O :.1. )rain and 1oybean C(ports to Me(ico # Modal 1hare %ransportation #nalysis, 2Q-24,P httpKGG&&&.ams.usda.govG#M1v4.Gget@leVd;oc<ame_1%CHPB;29,F9, 0ulk commodities accounted for E9 percent of the total 26 million metric tons (mmt" of :.1. agricultural products e(ported to Me(ico in 24 , and coarse 'rains I G percent o# t!e bul* a'ricultural s!ip&ents (7#1 2 44 ". 1oybeans and %!eat accounte" #or 2 and 1D per cent of the 4Q . , mmt of bulk e(ports, respectively. Al&ost O+ percent o# Mexico a'ricultural export s to t!e United States consist o# #res! an" prepare" #ruit an" $e'etables 1 an" !orticultural pro"ucts (7#1 244" . %rucks are the primary transportation mode used in Me(ico /s agricultural trade , accounting for n early QE percent of Me(ico total agricultural e(ports (15#P 244". +o&ever, FD percent o# Mexican a'ricultural i&ports enter t!e countr) b) t ra in or $essel (15#P 244" Wheat is primarily gro&n in the 1onora region &hich is key to Me(ico and &orld &heat production Carrison 7++G 8e3, &riter, O:# 1cholar to 1tudy Wheat 2ultivation in Me(ico,P httpKGGuane&s.orgGstoryGua-scholar-study-&heat-cultivation-me(ico Maribel Al$are5, an assistant research social scientist in %he :niversity of #ri?ona 1outh&est 2enter, !as recei$e" a 7ulbrightG)arcia Bobles 'rant to con"uct researc! in Sonora1 Mexico. #lvare? &ill use the nine-month, `4, grant to anal)5e t!e historical and cultural si'ni2cance o# %!eat culti$ation an" consu&ption in =ort!ern Mexico. 7ulbright grants are highly prestigious a&ards given every year to :.1. scholars. %he 7ulbright Program is the >agship international educational e(change sponsored by the :.1. government and is designed to Sincrease mutual understanding bet&een the people of the :nited 1tates and the people of other countries.S 7ulbrightG)arcia Bobles grants support collaborative &ork bet&een :.1. and Me(ican academic institutions and scholars in the border regions. !e JDI13 7H BeBo Lab Water Af W!eat In"ustr) in Sonora Mexico is one o# t!e &ost i&portant pro"ucers o# %!eat in t!e Western Ce&isp!ere1 an" Sonora is t!e t!ir" lar'est pro"ucer o# %!eat in Mexico( W!eat pro"ucts suc! as Jtortillas "e !arina1J or Aour tortillas1 brea"s an" pastries also are iconic markers of a manifest <orteIo cultural and regional identity in northern Me(ico and the south&estern :.1. 7irst introduced in the region in the late 4Es by the 8esuit priest and e(plorer Cusebio Kino, &heat cultivation, milling and trading no& comprise one of the most important economic sectors in 1onora. #ccording to an assessment by the Me(ico-based 5nternational Mai?e and Wheat 5mprovement 2enter, %!eat #ar&ers in Sonora obtain so&e o# t!e !i'!est %!eat )iel"s a&on' "e$elopin' countries( 5n 4,!F, &heat cultivation in 1onora &as the focus of a series of studies funded by the Bockefeller 7oundation that launched &hat is generally kno&n as the S)reen Bevolution,S creating a series of approaches to soil and crop sustainability credited for reducing hunger in the &orld and that earned its principal investigator, <orman 0orlaug, a <obel Peace Pri?e in 4,Q. %oday, giant bread producers in Me(ico like the 0imbo brand (a co-o&ner of the :.1. brand .ro&eat" e(ert considerable in>uence on this sector of Me(icoNs economy. !e i&portance o# %!eat in t!e %orl" to"a) is on t!e rise. Cconomists and sociologists estimate that a F percent per-year increase in &orld &heat production &ill be needed over the ne(t several decades to meet &orld food demands. Sonora is a bor"er state Wal*er an" ;a$la*o$ic!-Qoc!i 7++G Marisa and *era, O%he 1tate of the #ri?ona-1onora 0order BegionK 1hared\ Pollution, 1hared 1olutions,P httpKGG&&&.scerp.orgGbiG05*G#Z1on.pdf !e Ari5ona-Sonora bor"er re'ion is co&&onl) i"enti2e" as t!e #our counties inS Ari5ona an" 11 S &unicipiosS in Sonora a"/acent to t!e international boun"ar). 5n\ #ri?ona they include Xuma, Pima, 1anta 2ru?, and 2ochise 2ounty. 5n 1onora,\ the 44 border \ municipios\ are 1an Huis Bao 2olorado, Puerto PeIasco, )eneral\ C. 2alles, 2aborca, #ltar, 1aric, <ogales, 1anta 2ru?, 2ananea, <aco, and #gua\ Prieta. %he region/s population gro&th, e(pected to e(ceed 2.4 million by 24,\ has placed tremendous pressure on available resources and infrastructure. Hocal\ and regional governments on both sides of the border struggle to meet gro&ing\ demands for &ater, se&age, health care, roads, housing, and other services.\ Hike else&here in the :.1.-Me(ican border, 1onora/s border cities are several\ times larger in population than their counterparts on the #ri?ona side. Hargely\ attributable to migration from the interior of Me(ico in search of Aobs, this disparity\ creates severe implications for #ri?ona border cities, &hich struggle to absorb the\ impacts of increasing trade, tra=c, and migration &ithout ade$uate @nancial\ resources. JDI13 7O BeBo Lab Water Af Bor"erlan"s Pulnerable !e poor on t!e bor"erlan"s are uni.uel) $ulnerable to %ater collapse( Laura M. =or&an et al( 17, U.S. Geological Survey, Western Geographic Science Center. Miguel L. Villarreal b, Francisco Lara-Valencia c, Yongping Yuan , Wen!ing "ie , Sylvia Wilson e, Glays #!aya $, %achel Sleeter g, b University o$ #ri&ona, School o$ "atural %esources an the 'nviron!ent, (ucson, #) *+,-., US# c #ri&ona State University, School o$ (ransborer Stuies, (e!pe, #) *+-*,, US# U.S. 'nviron!ental /rotection #gency, Lanscape 'cology 0ranch, Las Vegas, "V *1..1, US# eU.S. Geological Survey, (e2as Water Science Center, #ustin, (3, US# $ University o$ #ri&ona, (ucson, #) *+,.1, US# g U.S. Geological Survey, Western Geographic Science Center, Menlo /ar4, C#, US#. Mapping socio-environmentally vulnerable populations access and exposure to ecosystem services at the U.S.eMexico borderlands. '5F Future generations living in the borerlans 6ill be epenent on binational a!inistrations aopting !anage!ent strategies that best acco!!oate sustainable evelop!ent. # goal o$ sustainable evelop!ent is to eli!inate ris4s to the !ost vulnerable populations by !a4ing this central to ecision- !a4ing processes 7#ger, -889: "elson et al., -88,;. # !ore sustainable $uture also re<uires ne6 approaches to the 6ay ecisions are !ae about natural resources, 6here the bene$its an services provie by ecosyste!s are recogni&e an represente in planning an policy iscussions 75ancoc4, -8.8;. (he U.S. Geological Survey 7USGS; has evelope an 'cosyste! /ort$olio Moel 7'/M: Labiosa et al., -881, p. =.; that presents the three pillars o$ sustainability 7social, econo!ic, an biophysical characteristics; together in an online ecision support syste! to help !anagers visuali&e the i!pacts o$ !anage!ent practices. (he '/M o$$ers a place-base holistic ecosyste! analysis that portrays an unbiase vie6 o$ regional i!pacts an ecosyste! service traeo$$s in alternative scenarios an is being applie in the Santa Cru& Watershe at the U.S. Me2ico borer o$ #ri&ona Sonorato help ecision-!a4ers ienti$y 6here ecosyste! services istribution shoul be regulate across the US Me2ico borer 7"or!an, (allent-5alsell et al., -8.8;. !e co&bination o# population increase in cli&ate c!an'e is &a*in' %ater a"aptation &ore "i9cult in co&&unities alon' t!e 8io <ran"e Cur" 13 (0rian, Professor of #gricultural Cconomics T <M1: S2limate *ulnerability and #daptive 1trategies #long the Bio )randeGBio 0ravo 0order of Me(ico and the :nited 1tatesS. 8ournal of 2ontemporary Water Besearch b Cducation. httpKGGonlinelibrary.&iley.comGdoiG4.4444GA.4,FE-Q!c.242.F42Q.(Gfull" Populations along both sides of the Bio )randeGBio 0ravo border bet&een Me(ico and the :nited 1tates are likely to be increasingly challenged by the compounding dual e3ects of population gro&th and climate change. )ro&ing populations heighten competition for &ater in an already &ater-scarce region, &here &ater is most commonly used to gro& food. Begional climate change proAections vary signi@cantly &ith respect to precipitation change but are generally consistent in predicting higher temperatures and the drying e3ects they &ill have on crops, surface storage, and natural vegetation. <ot only is climate change e(pected to bring more fre$uent, severe, and enduring droughts, but sea level and the fre$uency and intensity of storms, including hurricanes and >oods are also e(pected to rise (Parry et al. 2Q- 1olomon et al. 2Q". #lthough both sides of the border share e(posure to &ater scarcity, population gro&th, and changing climate, resiliency may be lo&er and vulnerability higher in Me(ico. Belative to :.1. border communities, adaptive capacity in Me(icoNs border communities is constrained by fe&er economic and institutional resources, limited capacities for restoration and disaster-relief, and greater risk-e(posure by disadvantaged communities (5barrardn et al. 26- Martane? 2Q". JDI13 7F BeBo Lab Water Af Currentl)1 Mexican %ater resources are $ulnerable to a $ariet) o# #actors Cur" 13 (0rian, Professor of #gricultural Cconomics T <M1: S2limate *ulnerability and #daptive 1trategies #long the Bio )randeGBio 0ravo 0order of Me(ico and the :nited 1tatesS. 8ournal of 2ontemporary Water Besearch b Cducation. httpKGGonlinelibrary.&iley.comGdoiG4.4444GA.4,FE-Q!c.242.F42Q.(Gfull" Me(icoNs &ater resources are also highly vulnerable to changes in both temperature and precipitation. 1urface and ground &ater supplies are often overe(ploited and stressed by pollution. #s in the Western :.1., agriculture accounts for the maAority of &ater use, in 2, &as &as nearly QQ percent (2onagua 244". # recent study along the #ri?ona and 1onora border, &here communities are heavily reliant on a transboundary a$uifer for &ater, indicates that continued population gro&th in the region &ill likely re$uire enhanced use of transfers of surface &aters and increased use of recycled &aters to meet gro&ing demands. 2limate change trends, the study indicates, are highly variable in their proAected e3ects on ground &ater >o&s and a$uifer levels. :nder drier climate scenarios, a$uifer recharge &ould add considerably to the &ater stress faced by the region. JDI13 7G BeBo Lab Water Af S.uo erases bor"er population !e sociall) &ar'inal populations on t!e bor"erlan"s t!at re &ost ne'ati$el) i&pacte" b) t!e collapse or "epletion o# bor"er %aters!e"s are not e$en inclu"e" in status .uo "ata an" %ater use calculations , t!e af is necessar) to re$erse t!eir erasure in polic) &a*in'( Laura M. =or&an et al( 17, U.S. Geological Survey, Western Geographic Science Center. Miguel L. Villarreal b, Francisco Lara-Valencia c, Yongping Yuan , Wen!ing "ie , Sylvia Wilson e, Glays #!aya $, %achel Sleeter g, b University o$ #ri&ona, School o$ "atural %esources an the 'nviron!ent, (ucson, #) *+,-., US# c #ri&ona State University, School o$ (ransborer Stuies, (e!pe, #) *+-*,, US# U.S. 'nviron!ental /rotection #gency, Lanscape 'cology 0ranch, Las Vegas, "V *1..1, US# eU.S. Geological Survey, (e2as Water Science Center, #ustin, (3, US# $ University o$ #ri&ona, (ucson, #) *+,.1, US# g U.S. Geological Survey, Western Geographic Science Center, Menlo /ar4, C#, US#. Mapping socio-environmentally vulnerable populations access and exposure to ecosystem services at the U.S.eMexico borderlands. '5F Socio-environ!ental vulnerable populations are o$ten unrepresente in lan-use planning yet have great potential $or loss 6hen e2pose to changes in ecosyste! services. #!inistrative bounaries, cultural i$$erences, an language barriers increase the isassociation bet6een lan-use !anage!ent an !arginali&e populations living in the U.S.eMe2ico borerlans. (his paper escribes the evelop!ent o$ a Moi$ie Socio-'nviron!ental Vulnerability >ne2 7M-S'V>;, using eter!inants $ro! binational census an neighborhoo ata that escribe levels o$ eucation, access to resources, !igratory status, housing, an nu!ber o$ epenents, to provie a si!pli$ie snapshot o$ the region?s populace that can be use in binational planning e$$orts. We apply this ine2 at the SCW, locate on the borer bet6een #ri&ona, US# an Sonora, Me2ico. For co!parison, the Soil an Water #ssess!ent (ool is concurrently applie to assess the provision o$ erosion- an foo control services over a 1-year perio. We escribe ho6 this coupling o$ ata can $or! the base $or an ecosyste! services assess!ent across political bounaries that can be use by lan-use planners. %esults reveal potential isparities in environ!ental ris4s an burens throughout the binational 6atershe in resiential istricts surrouning an bet6een urban centers. (he M-S'V> can be use as an i!portant $irst step in aressing environ- !ental @ustice $or binational ecision-!a4ing. (he !ost vulnerable people o not al6ays live in the !ost vulnerable environ!ents. Spatial analysis allo6s $or the ienti$ication o$ 6here i!poverishe populations an !arginal environ!ents coe2ist. >n social-ecological syste!s, vulnerability escribes a co!!unity?s resilience to change, necessary $or sustainable evelop!ent 7#ger, -889: 0riguglio, Corina, Farrugia, A Vella, -881: Fol4e et al., -88-: "elson, #ger, A 0ro6n, -88,;. Sustainable evelop!ent is recogni&e as a !utual goal that provies $or the inevitable population gro6th e2pecte 6ithout har!ing resources $or $uture generations. (he Unite "ations ienti$ie three co!ponents necessary to be integrate $or sustainable evelop!ent, 7i; econo!ic evelop!ent, 7ii; social evelop!ent, an 7iii; environ!ental protection as interepenent an !utually rein$orcing pillars 7Unite "ations, .1*,, .11-: 0runtlan, .1*,;. '<uity an social @ustice are !a@or social goals o$ sustainable evelop!ent 70runtlan, .1*,;. /rugh, Costan&a, an Baly 7-888; an Warner 7-88-; recogni&e that local sustainability practices are i!perative but the environ- !ental @ustice !ove!ent has not intersecte 6ith local sustainable initiatives to consier the social i!ensions o$ sustainability. 'nviron!ental @ustice is the concept that environ!ental burens an bene$its shoul be e<ually istribute to all people to ensure a sa$e, healthy environ!ent $or all 7#ger, -88=: #rnol, .11*: 0een A Gupta, .11,: Ca!acho, .11*: Bo6, Casperson, A 0ohn, -889: Faber, .11*;. 5istorically, spatial stuies o$ environ!ental @ustice analy&e the characteristics o$ the population potentially e2pose to a ha&arous lan-use 70een an Gupta .11,: Maantay, -88-: Unite Church o$ Christ Co!!ission $or %acial Dustice, .1*,: Warner, -88-;. Less-resilient or vulnerable populations !ay be less li4ely to respon to, cope 6ith, an recover $ro! isasters an ha&ars an nee to be recogni&e as such in ecision-!a4ing an lan-use planning 7#ger, -889: #rnol, .11*: 0utler, Corvalan, A Coren, -88+: %orEgue& et al., -889: (allis A /olas4y, -881;. #yge!an an 'vans 7-88F, -88=; an Warner 7-88-; argue that environ!ental @ustice is the social i!ension an 4eystone o$ sustainable evelop!ent. JDI13 3+ BeBo Lab Water Af ;o$ert) T De!u& ;o$ert) "e!u&ani5es e$er)bo")( 8obinson an" Ciriello (.rder of Preachers(dominican nun", Ph;" NGF bernadine and Maria 7ormation and ;evelopment for catholic 1chool Headers p. 4,2 C+7 Bedemption has everything to do &ith being released from poverty. Poverty dehumani?es people. 5t makes them dependent. 5t prevents them from developing their full human potential. 5t oppresses the human spirit. Poverty translates into illiteracy, unemployment, teenage pregnancy, addiction, the destruction of family life, violence, the abuse and neglect of children, social marginali?ation, prostitution, homelessness. moral ignorance, emotional under development, and prison. %here is no &ay of conceiving the redemption of the human race, especially in light of the 2hurchNs o&n social reaching, that does not rake into account the reality of human brokenness, not only at the level of individual persons, but also at the level of social structures. %here is personal sin, the evil that &ounds us as persons and for &hich &e bear personal responsibility- and there is there is social sin, the evil that surrounds us, the evil into &hich &e are born, the evil to &hich each of us, as &e gro&, makes his or her o&n indelible contribution Xet, not only does poverty dehumani?e the poor- &ith a soul threatening, inverse log, it also dehumani?es the rich. ;o$ert) "e!u&ani5es Monirul 5slam Q!an I Professor of 1ociology, :niversity of ;haka, Challenges in Constructing the Sociological Concept of Poverty Page F J httpKGG&&&.bangladeshsociology.orgG0C81W2-W22.4.EW2-W2Monir.pdfM C+7 %he third vie& observes that the e(isting de@nition on poverty is not respectful of the human values. 0y giving e(clusive emphasis on food in the de@nition of poverty other important elements are neglected. 0y con@ning human needs to food only the concept of poverty is dehumani?ed. 5t gives the impression that the obAective of human e(istence is only to survive physically. 0ut there is also the need to live &ith dignity and respect. %here is need for recognition, reali?ation of the human potential. When the entire focus goes to meeting the ebasic need/, primarily food, it is branded as the elivestock concept/. 5t has the further implication that the above philosophy is mainly geared to the need of a materialist society that re$uires unhindered supply of human labor. %here is an indication of e(ploitation underlying such an approach. 5t is the priority of the class commanding the main resources- the dependent class is engaged simply in responding to that priority. 1uch a vie& completely reverses the e(isting notion of ebasic need/ and includes a &ide range of socio-psychological elements. JDI13 31 BeBo Lab Water Af A' Exacerbates An e.treme amo$nt of 4ater is $sed to4ard agric$lt$re in the border region, 4hich is a threat to shortages and s$stainability Car'ro$e et al 13 (;irector of 2enter for Cnvironmental Besearch T :%-Cl Paso. SWater, climate, and social change in a fragile landscapeS Ccosphere. httpKGG&&&.esaAournals.orgGdoiGfullG4.46,GC142-2E,.4fa34" Water $uality is a particular threat to &ater resources sustainability in the border region and similar arid and semi-arid regions. 5n particular, salini?ation of surface &ater and shallo& ground&ater in desert river basins like the Middle Bio )rande represents a signi@cant global environmental problem. %he problem has intensi@ed as population gro&th in desert areas has increased and more &ater is needed to support agriculture and municipalities (Phillips et al. 2F. 7arber et al. 2!. .ren et al. 2!. +ogan et al. 2Q. 1?vnkie&ic? et al. 26". %he highest &ater use in the Bio )rande *alley is for irrigation to support agriculture (Cllis et al. 4,,F". JDI13 37 BeBo Lab Water Af N=ile 8i$er BasinL JDI13 33 BeBo Lab Water Af 1AC !e 'lobe is 'oin' to erupt in %ater %ars , !e =ile %ill be t!e 2rst an" lar'est Aas!point %it!out ne% &et!o"s #or cooperation Lau"icina 7+13 Hee #., 8uris ;octor candidate at Hoyola :niversity 2hicago 1chool of Ha&, 26. +e received a 0achelor of #rts from the :niversity of Michigan, 29. 8anuary F4, O5nternational Water ;isputesK +o& to Prevent a War .ver the <ile Biver,P httpKGG&&&.luc.eduGla&GmediaGla&GstudentsGpublicationsGilrGpdfsGlaudicinaL&ater.pdf United =ations 2'ures su''est t!ere are nearl) 3++ potential %ater conAicts aroun" t!e %orl". Q 0ecause more than t&o billion people in the &orld lack access to clean drinking &ater, 6 tensions are &ost acute in "e$elopin' countries, &here the little &ater resources that are available are often polluted or s$uandered. , #dditionally, more than O,W of all future population increases &ill take lace in the developing &orld.P 4 Man), therefore, reco'ni5e t!e =ile Basin as t!e &ost li*el) spot #or a %ar o$er %ater- 44 former 1ecretary-)eneral of the :nited <ations, 0outros 0outros-)hali, said t!e next %ar in =ort!ern A#rica %oul" be o$er t!e %aters o# t!e =ile( 17 Because population rates are a&on' t!e !i'!est in t!e %orl"1 eac! A#rican countr) s!ares at least one ri$er basin %it! a nei'!borin' nation( Wit! t!e ten =ile Basin countries continuin' to "isa'ree o$er its use1 t!e re'ion &ust "e$elop a s)ste& o# %ater use base" upon transna- tional cooperation in or"er to ensure #uture political stabilit)( 1 US-Mexico ne'otiations %ill set t!e #ra&e%or* #or international &et!o"s o# %ater-ne'otiations an" !as t!e potential to pre$ent all =ile-base" conAicts Lau"icina 7+13 Hee #., 8uris ;octor candidate at Hoyola :niversity 2hicago 1chool of Ha&, 26. +e received a 0achelor of #rts from the :niversity of Michigan, 29. 8anuary F4, O5nternational Water ;isputesK +o& to Prevent a War .ver the <ile Biver,P httpKGG&&&.luc.eduGla&GmediaGla&GstudentsGpublicationsGilrGpdfsGlaudicinaL&ater.pdf Despite t!e 'lobal concern o$er %ater scarcit)1 in#rastructural an" political barriers !a$e !istoricall) bloc*e" international transboun"ar) a'ree&ents across t!e 'lobe #ro& pro"ucin' efecti$e s)ste&s o# %ater &ana'e&ent. 4! 8ecent ne- 'otiations bet%een t!e United States an" Mexico1 !o%e$er1 peace#ull) en"e" a 2#t) )ear stru''le o$er t!e s!are" %aters o# t!e 8io <ran"e 8i$er( W!ile it !as )et to be seen i# t!e recent pro'ress %ill sol$e t!e re'ion:s lon'-ter& %ater proble&s1 it expose" &et!o"s o# cooperation t!at can be use" to #oster interna- tional a'ree&ent in =ort!ern A#rica(%his article &ill e(amine t!e ne'otiations bet%een t!e Unite" States an" Mex- ico as a basis #or su''estin' a &et!o" o# transboun"ar) cooperation to ease in- tensi#)in' conAicts o$er %ater use in =ort!ern A#rica. Cven if the current &ater shortage does not cause outright &arfare in the near future, Oit already causes enough violence and con>ict &ithin ]#frican^ nations to threaten social and polit- ical stability.P JDI13 3D BeBo Lab Water Af 49 Part 55 of this paper &ill analy?e the e3ectiveness of the negoti- ations bet&een the :nited 1tates and Me(ico. Part 555 &ill introduce the &ater problems in <orthern #frica, speci@cally along the <ile Biver. 5t &ill then e(- amine the current status of international cooperation e3orts and e(plain the pos- sible conse$uences that &ill result &ithout a change of strategy. Part 5* &ill introduce and criti$ue t&o proposed solutions to global &ater scarcityK treating access to &ater as a basic human right, and privati?ing the &ater supply by mak- ing &ater an economic good. Part * &ill compare the situation bet&een the :nited 1tates and Me(ico to that of the <ile Biver 0asin and e(plain &hy each re$uires a uni$ue solution. 5t &ill then combine aspects from the :nited 1tates' Me(ico dispute, the privati?ation model, and the human rights approach to pro- pose an optimal frame&ork for a successful &ater management plan in <orthern #frica based on common interests, transnational institutions, private funding, and minimal standards of &ater allocation and $uality. #lthough t!e current settin' in t!e =ile 8i$er Basin &a) li*el) cause &ilitar) conAict1 efecti$e plannin' an" cooperation can &ol" #uture %ater issues t!rou'! efecti$e peace&a*in' an" "iplo&atic eforts( <ile &ater >o& is an e(istential problem for the state of Cgypt D the crises &ill d&arf current political tension risking total state collapse 15M.< ALLISO= 4! ;ecember, 211 httpKGGdailymaverick.co.?aGarticleG244-42- 4!-revolution-masks-egypts-real-problems Bevolution masks CgyptNs real problems ;istracted by the revolution, Cgypt is struggling to deal &ith three e(istential crises that might ultimately prove far more revolutionary to Cgypt/s &ay of lifeK overpopulation, high food prices and &ater shortages. %his &as the message of former :< secretary general, 0outros 0outros-)hali. %he bad ne&s for Cgypt is that he/s probably right. Cgypt is a harsh desert country, &ith Aust one redeeming geographical featureK the <ile Biver, &hich snakes through the 1ahara, turning everything it touches green. 5t/s from the <ile that Cgypt drinks, and from the <ile that it eats. 5t is also &here almost everyone lives D some ,6W of the population live on Aust FW of the territory. 0ut the <ile can/t feed everyone these days. %here are simply too many Cgyptians, already 64-million of them, and another bet&een 4- million and 2-million are being born every year. Cgyptian agriculture only produces about half the &heat needed to feed the country. 1o Cgypt imports &heat, lots of it- it is the largest importer of &heat in the &orld. 1o &hat happens &hen the price of &heat doubles, as it did bet&een 8une 24 and 8une 244V %he sharp price increase &as a function of poor crops in Bussia and #ustralia, combined &ith the ne& demand for &heat from #sian countries. 5t hit Cgypt hardest. %he government &as forced to dip into its foreign currency reserves and the price of bread on the street rose sharply. %here &as domestic unrest, demonstrations and eventually +osni Mubarak/s government collapsed. <ot that the revolution &as only about the price of bread- but it &as partly. #t the same time, Cgypt/s lifeblood, the <ile, is under attack. %he &aters of the <ile have been governed for this century and most of the last by a colonial-era treaty &hich guaranteed some ,W of the <ile &aters for the consumption of 1udan and Cgypt. ;o&nriver countries like Cthiopia, Kenya and :ganda had to share the remaining 4W bet&een them, e3ectively preventing them from damming the <ile or using it as a primary irrigation source. <ot that it has been a huge problem until no&. %he economies of the do&nriver countries have never really developed to the point &here they &ere able to utilise the <ile &aters e3ectively and besides these countries all have alternative &ater supplies D a JDI13 3I BeBo Lab Water Af geographical lu(ury not a3orded to Cgypt or 1udan. 0ut as sub-1aharan #frican economies gro& at an astonishing average in this @nancial climate of around 9W a year, there is greater demand for &ater, and the po&er &ater can generate. <o& the do&nriver countries, led by Cthiopia, are beginning to push seriously for a revision of the treaty. 0eing do&nriver, these countries have Cgypt at their mercy. #nd &hile they &ill never stop the river/s >o& completely, even a small reduction in the amount of &ater that makes it to Cgypt could prove devastating, directly a3ecting the amount of food that can be gro&n and forcing Cgypt to import even more of its staples. 2ouple the &ater and food issues &ith Cgypt/s steady population gro&th and suddenly the country/s future looks very precarious indeed. 0ut, in the revolutionary atmosphere &hich alternates bet&een euphoria and anticlima(, it is very di=cult to look beyond even ne(t year. %he interim military government cannot make the kind of di=cult long-term decisions &hich might alleviate future problems. %he ne& parliament doesn/t yet have the po&er to do so and is sorely lacking in people &ho might kno& ho& to address the situation. %he protesters are Aust concerned &ith making sure their revolution doesn/t end before the last of the old establishment has been evicted. %here/s a real danger that Cgypt/s hunger for democracy &ill only e(acerbate its physical hunger. <obody is focussing on anything beside their o&n narro&, short-term domestic imperatives. %his &as the point made forcefully by former :nited <ations secretary general 0outros 0outros- )hali, no& head of the Cgyptian <ational 2ouncil of +uman Bights. )iven his close links to the former regime, he &on/t be popular &ith the revolutionaries, but this shouldn/t detract from his argument. 5n particular, 0outros-)hali &as concerned &ith the understandable but dangerous parochialism of Cgyptian politics in recent months. O%he problems of Cgypt cannot be solved in Cgypt. %hey need the cooperation of other countries,P he told Beuters in an intervie&. O%here are problems no one is talking about, and these are the urgent ones...Public opinion is paying more attention to &hat is going on in the West 0ank and )a?a...rather than paying attention to &hat is going on in the #frican countries &here you have the source of the <ile. 5f you read all the slogans used by the revolution since 29 8anuary, there has not been a &ord about foreign a3airs.P 5t/s important not to underestimate the potential severity of these problems no one is talking about. Whoever does emerge as the ne& po&er in Cgypt &ill have an e(traordinarily di=cult task ahead of them to keep the country fed, and fed cheaply, because after decades of +osni Mubarak/s subsidised bread the population is not used to paying the market price. #s that population gro&s and countries do&nriver start playing &ith the <ile/s taps, the task &ill only get more di=cult. ;on/t be surprised if this causes Cgypt/s ne(t revolution. JDI13 3H BeBo Lab Water Af International resource interests in t!e re'ion ris*s 'lobal escalation Co""rin'ton 1+ ()raeme- QG4, httpKGG&&&.tomorro&today.co.?aG24GQG4Ga-looming-crisis-&orld- &ater-&arsG Ph;-0usiness #dminstration b )uest lecturer at top business schools, including the Hondon 0usiness 1chool, ;uke 2orporate Cducation and the )ordon 5nstitute of 0usiness 1cience." People go to &ar &hen their &ay of life is threatened. 5 have &ritten before about the many issues &e face in the coming years that threaten our &ay of life. %hese include global &armingGclimate change, pollution, pandemics, nuclear bombs, intelligent machines, genetics, and more. More and more 5 am becoming convinced that the ne(t maAor regionalGglobal con>ict &ill be over &ater. We are much more likely to have &ater &ars in the ne(t decade than nuclear ones. #nd 5 &ere to guess, 5/d say that it is most likely to happen in around <orth Cast #frica. %his is a region &ith its o&n internal issues. 0ut it also has the foreign involvement of #merica, 2hina, the Middle Castern #rab nations, and (increasingly" 5srael. Ruite a potent mi(g Hast &eek, #ddis #baba, Cthiopia hosted the 46th regular meeting of the 2ouncil of Ministers of Water #3airs of the <ile 0asin countries. 5n the lead up to the conference, Cthiopia, B&anda, :ganda, %an?ania and Kenya, the @ve countries that are all upstream of Cgypt and 1udan concluded a &ater-sharing treaty D to the e(clusion of Cgypt and 1udan. %his has obviously reignited the longstanding dispute over &ater distribution of the &orld/s longest river in the &orld/s driest continent. Cgypt is currently the largest consumer of <ile &ater and is the main bene@ciary of a 4,2, treaty &hich allo&s it to take 99.9 billion cubic metres of &ater each year, or 6QW of the White and 0lue <ile/s >o&. 0y contrast, 1udan is only allo&ed to dra& 46.9 billion cubic metres. .n attaining independence 1udan refused to ackno&ledge the validity of the <ile &ater treaty and negotiated a ne& bilateral treaty &ith Cgypt in 4,9,. Kenya, %an?ania and :ganda also e(pressly refused to be bound by the treaty &hen they attained independence, but have not negotiated a ne& treaty since then. :nder the 4,2, treaty, Cgypt has po&ers over upstream proAectsK %he <ile Waters #greement of 4,2, states that no country in the <ile basin should undertake any &orks on the <ile, or its tributaries, &ithout Cgypt/s e(press permission. %his gives Cgypt a veto over anything, including the building of dams on numerous rivers in Kenya, 0urundi, B&anda, %an?ania, Cthiopia, and by implication Cgypt has control over agriculture, industry and infrastructure and basic services such as drinking &ater and electricity in these countries. %his is surely untenable. 0ut if the other countries broke the treaty, &ould Cgypt respond &ith forceV 1ince the late 4,,s, <ile 0asin states have been trying unsuccessfully to develop a revised frame&ork agreement for &ater sharing, dubbed the <ile 0asin 5nitiative (<05". 5n May 2,, talks held in Kinshasa broke do&n because Cgypt and 1udan/s historical &ater $uotas &ere not mentioned in the te(t of the proposed agreement. Water ministers met again in 8uly 2, in #le(andria, &here Cgypt and 1udan reiterated their reAection of any agreement that did not clearly establish their historical share of &ater. %his is an untenable position. :pstream states accuse Cgypt and 1udan of attempting to maintain an unfair, colonial-era monopoly on the river. Cgyptian o=cials and analysts, ho&ever, defend their position, pointing out that Cgypt is much more dependent on the river for its &ater needs than its upstream neighbours. Cgypt claims that <ile &ater accounts for more than ,9W of JDI13 3O BeBo Lab Water Af Cgypt/s total &ater consumption, although they appear to be &orking hard to reduce both their &ater usage (they/re stopping gro&ing rice, for e(ample" and their dependence on the <ile. An"1 E')ptian instabilit)1 re'ional instabilit)1 an" #oo" riots ris* a petrocollapse t!at coul" brin' on %i"esprea" #a&ine an" 'lobal econo&ic collapse 8an Lun"ber' F 8anuary 7+11 , independent oil industry analyst httpKGG&&&.culturechange.orgGcmsGcontentGvie&GQ2G4G %he stability of countries such as Cgypt and other #rab states has been proven illusory. When the right geopolitical event in the Persian )ulf -- perhaps connected to the %unisian, Cgyptian and Xemeni trends no& in play -- interrupts oil supplies by as much as 4W or more of global demand , the e3ect on the oil market may &ell be as if +ubbertNs peak oil bell curve became a cli3 that &e have already Aumped o3. # revolution in 1audi #rabia has been my favorite e(ample for years, in terms of illustrating &hat can spark a return to the 4,QsN skyrocketing oil prices, panic buying and hoarding. #s grocery shelves &ill be emptied in a fe& days &hen a maAor oil supply crunch hits, as the late Matt 1immons reminded us, &hat di3erence does it make ho& many billions of barrels of crude are really o3 0ra?ilNs coastV <o&, &hen people didnNt e(pect it but should have, &e see that #rab peoples have indeed been cha@ng under dictatorship for decades. #rabs, as in most places, have been biding their time for liberation. Whether certain regions can soon attain it is another matter, &hen many have far outstripped their besieged ecosystemsN carrying capacities. 5n Middle Castern countries the &ater and soil situations are generally poor and getting &orse. 7ood shortage and food riots can >o& from ecological deterioration, especially as ne& &eather patterns (or non-patterns" have been increasingly disruptive for agriculture. %his is one argument for activists in #rab lands to remember there is no liberation or e$uality on a dead planet. #lthough the Cgyptian uprising or revolution is hundreds of miles removed from the Persian )ulf, &here 46W of the &orldNs total trade in crude its shipped through the 1trait of +ormu?, a common spirit of rebellion has spread in the region. 5t can take a sharp anti-#merican or anti-corporate turn and thus a3ect oil e(ports to the :.1 . 5n 1audi #rabia &here the monarchy is e(tremely repressive, demonstrators have dared come out of the &ood&ork after %unisians sent their dictator packing. 5nternational emphasis on military security in the region has been on huge ships and the Persian )ulf itself, but numerous facilities on land in #rab countries and nearby nations are vulnerable to attack and closure . #lso, the 1ue? 2anal sees one million barrels of oil pass through each day from the Bed 1ea to the Mediterranean (source for @guresK Cnergy 5nformation #gency, :.1. ;ept. of Cnergy". %he number of separate but linked oil facilities , e(tent of damage , or days of closure do not have to conform to some arithmetic model for there to be a massive reaction in the &orld oil market. %he perception of supply shortage , &ith real instances a3ecting deliveries , is &hat drives oil prices on the &orld market, much as the stock market sometimes has a herd mentality. 1o far &e are talking about &hat most observers &ould consider a temporary oil supply disruption resulting in a price spike. +o&ever, if the disruption and spike are strong enough, severe e3ects can shut do&n much of the global economy and simultaneously stop much local activity. Petrocollapse -- the e(acerbated and lasting failure of the &orld oil market to meet demand , and the paralysis and collapse of most of the economyNs infrastructure relying on petroleum JDI13 3F BeBo Lab Water Af -- does not need to follo& a formula or speci@c pattern of oil industry breakdo&n or a certain depletion schedule of oil reserves. We &ill only be sure &hen petrocollapse hits. 0ecause peak oil has been attained, &e can say that the petrocollapse process has begun and Aust needs a catalyst to tip the &hole economy and trigger famine on a scale as large as some future climate disaster. Econo&ic "o%nturn ris*s political unrest1 nuclear terroris&1 unstable proli#eration1 an" interstate conAict afectin' billions Qe&p 1+ )eo3rey Kemp, ;irector of Begional 1trategic Programs at %he <i(on 2enter, served in the White +ouse under Bonald Beagan, special assistant to the president for national security a3airs and senior director for <ear Cast and 1outh #sian a3airs on the <ational 1ecurity 2ouncil 1ta3, 7ormer ;irector, Middle Cast #rms 2ontrol ProAect at the 2arnegie Cndo&ment for 5nternational Peace, 24, %he Cast Moves WestK 5ndia, 2hina, and #sia/s )ro&ing Presence in the Middle Cast, p. 2FF-! %he second scenario, called Mayhem and 2haos, is the opposite of the @rst scenario- everything that can go &rong does go &rong. %he &orld economic situation &eakens rather than strengthens, and 5ndia, 2hina, and 8apan su3er a maAor reduction in their gro&th rates, further &eakening the global economy. #s a result, energy demand falls and the price of fossil fuels plummets, leading to a @nancial crisis for the energy-producing states, &hich are forced to cut back dramatically on e(pansion programs and social &elfare. %hat in turn leads to political unrestK and nurtures di3erent radical groups, including, but not limited to, 5slamic e(tremists. %he internal stability of some countries is challenged, and there are more Ofailed states.P Most serious is the collapse of the democratic government in Pakistan and its takeover by Muslim e(tremists, &ho then take possession of a large number of nuclear &eapons. %he danger of &ar bet&een 5ndia and Pakistan increases signi@cantly. 5ran, al&ays &orried about an e(tremist Pakistan, e(pands and &eaponi?es its nuclear program. %hat further enhances nuclear proliferation in the Middle Cast, &ith 1audi #rabia, %urkey, and Cgypt Aoining 5srael and 5ran as nuclear states. :nder these circumstances, the potential for nuclear terrorism increases, and the possibility of a nuclear terrorist attack in either the Western &orld or in the oil-producing states may lead to a further devastating collapse of the &orld economic market, &ith a tsunami-like impact on stability. 5n this scenario, maAor disruptions can be e(pected, &ith dire conse$uences for t&o-thirds of the planet/s population. JDI13 3G BeBo Lab Water Af U =ile , erroris& =ile basin conAict ris*s 'lobal econo&ic collapse1 &assi$e star$ation an" transnational terroris& Xoussef +. Aboul-Enein 4G4G7+17 is a :.1. <avy Medical 1ervice 2orps 2ommander, Middle Cast 7oreign #rea .=cer, and is author of OMilitant 5slamist 5deologyK :nderstanding the )lobal %hreat,P published by <aval 5nstitute Press. %+C 2:H%:BC #<; 2.<7H52% BC*5CW <ile 0asin 2on>ictK Perspectives on Water 1haring, 7ood 1hortages, 2ivil Wars and %errorism 2;B Xoussef +. #boul-Cnein, M12, :.1. <avy Water resource issues are among those that preoccupy the ten nations that share the <ile, kno&n as riparian (those that share a river or rivers" nations as &ell as its tributaries, and lakes. #ll these <ile riparian nations are e(periencing massive population gro&th, &hile other nations like Cthiopia and :ganda are emerging from decades of civil &ar and have a driving desire to e(ploit &ater resources &ithin their national borders. +o&ever, Cthiopian and :gandan proAects along its rivers and lakes, if left unchecked, can in>uence 1udanese and Cgyptian &ater levels along the <ile. %o say that crisis along the <ile is inevitable is too simplistic. #lthough there is literature that supports the vie& of a future &ar over the <ile, the reality is much more comple(. 5t features a history of cooperation on some fronts, covert blocking of @nancing on others, outright support for revolutionary movements, and blatant threats of &ar mainly bet&een Cgypt, 1udan and Cthiopia. What is clear is that the global economy and the :nited 1tates cannot a3ord a con>ict that @nds the #frican nations bordering the Bed 1ea in chaos. %his could come in the form of direct hostilities bet&een Cgypt and Cthiopia, or famine that drives &hole populations to desperate measures along the Bed 1ea coast that could feature an increase of piracy along these coastlines as a means of survival. # destabili?ed <ile 0asin could in addition o3er opportunities for transnational terrorist net&orks. <one of the literature on con>ict among the <ile riparian states focuses on the &ay transnational terrorist groups could interAect themselves into con>icts over &ater sharing. %his study &ill attempt to introduce al-Raida a=liates into the comple(ities of potential future con>icts among <ile states. #l-Raida a=liates in Cast #frica, like al-1habab, not only operate in 1omalia, but e(ploit the border regions bet&een Kenya and 1omalia as &ell. #yman al-Za&ahiri, the al-Raida deputy, has used 1udan as a launching point to conduct terrorism in his native Cgypt.]4^ 5nstability along the eleven riparian states of the <ile basin o3ers pockets in &hich al-Raida or its a=liates can establish a presence. #merica/s military must spend time debating and learning about the factors that can unite the countries of the <ile 0asin, as &ell as divide them. %hese include historic and religious factors that have dominated the debate on both the conscious and subconscious levels, especially bet&een Cgypt, 1udan and Cthiopia. erroris& causes extinction , "ra%s in 8ussia an" C!ina A)son in 1+ Bobert, Professor of 1trategic 1tudies and ;irector of the 2entre for 1trategic 1tudiesK <e& Zealand at the *ictoria :niversity of Wellington1 O#fter a %errorist <uclear #ttackK Cnvisaging 2atalytic C3ects,P 1tudies in 2on>ict b %errorism, *olume FF, 5ssue Q, 8uly, #vailable .nline to 1ubscribing 5nstitutions via 5nformaWorld JDI13 D+ BeBo Lab Water Af # terrorist nuclear attack, and even the use of nuclear &eapons in response by the country attacked in the @rst place, &ould not necessarily represent the &orst of the nuclear &orlds imaginable. 5ndeed, t!ere are reasons to %on"er %!et!er nuclear terroris& s!oul" ever be re'ar"e" as belonging in the category of truly existential threats. # contrast can be dra&n here &ith the global catastrophe that &ould come from a massive nuclear e(change bet&een t&o or more of the sovereign states that possess these &eapons in signi@cant numbers. Cven the &orst terrorism that the t&enty-@rst century might bring &ould fade into insigni@cance alongside considerations of &hat a general nuclear &ar &ould have &rought in the 2old War period. #nd it must be admitted that as long as the maAor nuclear &eapons states have hundreds and even thousands of nuclear &eapons at their disposal, there is al&ays the possibility of a truly a&ful nuclear e(change taking place precipitated entirely by state possessors themselves. But these t&o nuclear &orlds'a non- state actor nuclear attack and a catastrophic interstate nuclear e(change'are not necessarily separable. 5t is Aust possible that some sort of terrorist attack, and especially an act o# nuclear terroris&1 coul" precipitate a c!ain o# e$ents lea"in' to a &assi$e exc!an'e o# nuclear %eapons b et%een t%o or &ore of the states that possess them. 5n this conte(t, today/s and tomorro&/s terrorist groups might assume the place allotted during the early 2old War years to ne& state possessors of small nuclear arsenals &ho &ere seen as raising the risks of a catalytic nuclear &ar bet&een the superpo&ers started by third parties. %hese risks &ere considered in the late 4,9s and early 4,Es as concerns gre& about nuclear proliferation, the so-called nh4 problem. 5t may re$uire a considerable amount of imagination to depict an especially plausible situation &here an act of nuclear terrorism could lead to such a massive inter-state nuclear &ar. 7or e(ample, in the event of a terrorist nuclear attack on the :nited 1tates, it might &ell be &ondered Aust ho& Bussia andGor 2hina could plausibly be brought into the picture, not least because they seem unlikely to be @ngered as the most obvious state sponsors or encouragers of terrorist groups. %hey &ould seem far too responsible to be involved in supporting that sort of terrorist behavior that could Aust as easily threaten them as &ell. 1ome possibilities, ho&ever remote, do suggest themselves. 7or e(ample, ho& might the :nited 1tates react if it &as thought or discovered that the @ssile material used in the act of nuclear terrorism had come from Bussian stocks,! and if for some reason Mosco& denied any responsibility for nuclear la(ityV %he correct attribution of that nuclear material to a particular country might not be a case of science @ction given the observation by Michael May et al. that &hile the debris resulting from a nuclear e(plosion &ould be Ospread over a &ide area in tiny fragments, its radioactivity makes it detectable, identi@able and collectable, and a &ealth of information can be obtained from its analysisK the e=ciency of the e(plosion, the materials used and, most important g some indication of &here the nuclear material came from.P!4 #lternatively, i# t!e act of nuclear terrorism ca&e as a co&plete surprise, and #merican o=cials refused to believe that a terrorist group &as fully responsible (or responsible at all" suspicion %oul" s!i#t i&&e"iatel) to state possessors ( 8ulin' out Western all) countries like the :nited Kingdom and 7rance, and probably 5srael and 5ndia as &ell, authorities in Was!in'ton %oul" be le#t %it! a $er) s!ort list consistin' o# =ort! Qorea, perhaps Iran if its program continues, and possibly ;a*istan. 0ut at &hat stage &ould 8ussia an" C!ina be de@nitely ruled out in this high stakes game of nuclear 2luedoV 5n particular, if the act of nuclear terrorism occurred a'ainst a bac*"rop o# existin' tension in Was!in'ton:s relations %it! 8ussia an"Gor C!ina, and at a time &hen threats had already been traded bet&een these maAor po&ers, %oul" o9cials an" political lea"ers not be te&pte" to assu&e t!e %ors tV .f course, the chances of this occurring &ould only seem to increase if the :nited 1tates &as already involved in some sort of limited armed con>ict &ith Bussia andGor 2hina, or if they &ere confronting each other from a distance in a pro(y &ar, as unlikely as these developments may seem at the present time. !e re$erse might &ell appl) too> s!oul" a nuclear terrorist attac* occur in 8ussia or C!ina during a period of heightened tension or even limited con>ict &ith the :nited 1tates, coul" Mosco% an" Bei/in' resist t!e pressures that might rise "o&esticall) to consi"er t!e United States as a possible perpetrator or encourager of the attackV Was!in'ton:s earl) response to a terrorist nuclear attac* on its o&n soil might also raise t!e possibilit) o# an un%ante" (and nuclear aided" con#rontation &ith Bussia andGor 2hina. 7or e(ample1 in t!e noise an" con#usion "urin' t!e i&&e"iate a#ter&at! o# t!e terrorist nuclear attac* 1 t!e U(S( presi"ent &i'!t be expecte" to place t!e countr):s ar&e" #orces1 inclu"in' its nuclear arsenal1 on a !i'!er sta'e o# alert ( In suc! a tense en$iron&ent1 %!en care#ul plannin' runs up a'ainst t!e #riction o# realit), it is Aust possible that Mosco% an"Mor C!ina &i'!t &ista*enl) rea" t!is as a si'n o# U(S( intentions to use force (and possibly nuclear #orce@ a'ainst t!e& ( In t!at situation1 t!e te&ptations to pree&pt suc! actions &i'!t 'ro %, although it must be admitted that any preemption &ould probably still meet &ith a devastating response. #s part of its initial response to the act of nuclear terrorism (as discussed earlier" Was!in'ton &i'!t "eci"e to or"er JDI13 D1 BeBo Lab Water Af a si'ni2cant con$entional ?or nuclear@ retaliator) or "isar&in' attac* a'ainst t!e lea"ers!ip o# t!e terrorist 'roup an"Mor states seen to support t!at 'roup. ;epending on the identity and especially the location of these targets, 8ussia an"Gor C!ina &i'!t interpret suc! action as being far too close for their comfort, and potentially as an in#rin'e&ent on t!eir sp!eres o# inAuence an" even on their so$erei'nt). .ne far- fetched but perhaps not impossible scenario might stem from a Audgment in Washington that some of the main aiders and abetters of the terrorist action resided some&here such as 2hechnya, perhaps in connection &ith &hat #llison claims is the O2hechen insurgents/ g long-standing interest in all things nuclear.P!2 #merican pressure on that part of the &orld &ould almost certainly raise alarms in Mosco& that might re$uire a degree of advanced consultation from Washington that the latter found itself unable or un&illing to provide. %here is also the $uestion of ho& other nuclear-armed states respond to the act of nuclear terrorism on another member of that special club. 5t could reasonably be e(pected that follo&ing a nuclear terrorist attack on the :nited 1tates, both Bussia and 2hina &ould e(tend immediate sympathy and support to Washington and &ould &ork alongside the :nited 1tates in the 1ecurity 2ouncil. 0ut there is Aust a chance, albeit a slim one, &here the support of Bussia andGor 2hina is less automatic in some cases than in others. 7or e(ample, &hat &ould happen if the :nited 1tates &ished to discuss its right to retaliate against groups based in their territoryV 5f, for some reason, Washington found the responses of Bussia and 2hina deeply under&helming, (neither Ofor us or against usP" might it also suspect that they secretly &ere in cahoots &ith the group, increasing (again perhaps ever so slightly" the chances of a maAor e(change. 5f the terrorist group had some connections to groups in Bussia and 2hina, or e(isted in areas of the &orld over &hich Bussia and 2hina held s&ay, and if Washington felt that Mosco& or 0eiAing &ere placing a curiously modest level of pressure on them, &hat conclusions might it then dra& about their culpabilityV 5f Washington decided to use, or decided to threaten the use of, nuclear &eapons, the responses of Bussia and 2hina &ould be crucial to the chances of avoiding a more serious nuclear e(change. %hey might surmise, for e(ample, that &hile the act of nuclear terrorism &as especially heinous and demanded a strong response, the response simply had to remain belo& the nuclear threshold. 5t &ould be one thing for a non-state actor to have broken the nuclear use taboo, but an entirely di3erent thing for a state actor, and indeed the leading state in the international system, to do so. 5f Bussia and 2hina felt su=ciently strongly about that prospect, there is then the $uestion of &hat options &ould lie open to them to dissuade the :nited 1tates from such actionK and as has been seen over the last several decades, the central dissuader of the use of nuclear &eapons by states has been the threat of nuclear retaliation. 5f some readers @nd this simply too fanciful, and perhaps even o3ensive to contemplate, it may be informative to reverse the tables. Bussia, &hich possesses an arsenal of thousands of nuclear &arheads and that has been one of the t&o most important trustees of the non-use taboo, is subAected to an attack of nuclear terrorism. 5n response, Mosco& places its nuclear forces very visibly on a higher state of alert and declares that it is considering the use of nuclear retaliation against the group and any of its state supporters. +o& &ould Washington vie& such a possibilityV Would it really be keen to support Bussia/s use of nuclear &eapons, including outside Bussia/s traditional sphere of in>uenceV #nd if not, &hich seems $uite plausible, &hat options &ould Washington have to communicate that displeasureV 5f 2hina had been the victim of the nuclear terrorism and seemed likely to retaliate in kind, &ould the :nited 1tates and Bussia be happy to sit back and let this occurV In t!e c!ar'e" at&osp!ere i&&e"iatel) a#ter a nuclear terrorist attac*1 !o% %oul" t!e attac*e" countr) respon" to pressure #ro& ot!er &a/or nuclear po%ers not to respon" in *in"V !e p!rase 3!o% "are t!e) tell us %!at to "o4 i&&e"iatel) sprin's to &in"( So&e &i'!t even go so far as to interpret this concern as a tacit #or& o# sympathy or support #or t!e terrorists( !is &i'!t not !elp the chances of nuclear restraint. JDI13 D7 BeBo Lab Water Af U =ile , <enoci"eMCi$ War !is %ill lea" to repeate" ci$il %ars1 interstate %ars1 an" 'enoci"es Keenan 0erar 7+11 <ile WaterK ;evelopment, Cnvironment, and 2on>ict Pit?er 2ollege, 2laremont, 2alifornia %he <ile Biver basin is rife &ith violent con>ict. #t @rst glance many of these instances appear to have little to do &ith <ile &ater. +o&ever, these disputes have direct conse$uences for &ater use and contribute to the debacle over &ater delegation. %hey have the potential to e(acerbate e(isting tensions and spur ne& con>icts. %here are t&o situations that illustrate these points &ellK ethnic tensions in B&andan and the 1outhern 1udanese independence movement. 5n addition, Cgypt/s threats of violent retaliation must be e(amined. Cthnic tensions in B&anda reached a clima( during the 4,,! genocide &hen an 6F estimated one million %utsis and moderate +utus lost their lives. %hough colonial baggage can be blamed for much of the ethnic tension that divided the population, a gro&ing number of analysts and historians point to co3ee, B&anda/s monocrop, as having played a large role as &ell (1hah, 29". # fall in the &orld co3ee price in the late 4,6s led to the implosion of the B&andan economy. ;uring this time, the +utu government placed the blame on %utsi landholders and politicians &ho, up until B&andan independence, had governed the country thanks to 0elgian favoritism. %his rhetoric continued to escalate as the B&andan economy &orsened, culminating in the 4,,! genocide. +o& does this relate to the issue of <ile &aterV %ake for e(ample, the hypothetical, but realistic scenario of a future &ater shortage crisis in the <ile 0asin. # steep loss in revenue resulting from failed or limited crops could easily result in a B&andan-like scenario. %here are a series of Cast #frican nations, &hich have similarly intense ethnical fragmentation to that of B&anda. %heses include :ganda, the ;emocratic Bepublic of 2ongo, 1udan, and Cthiopia. 5n the event of a severe drought and given the lack of a plan to deal &ith such a problem, it is completely plausible that ethnic violence might again break out. # second potential >ash point stems from the civil &ar in 1udan. .n 8anuary ,, 244 1outhern 1udan &ill hold a referendum to determine its political future. Cither it &ill continue to be part of the greater 1udan or it &ill secede, becoming a sovereign nation. %he referendum comes after t&o civil &ars, genocide, and untold human su3ering. 8ust a matter of months before the referendum, the outcome remains unpredictable by the actions of the 1udanese government and the presence of marauding 6! rebel groups. %he result of this election could create an eleventh riparian state, the political implications of &hich &ill be discussed in detail. 7or no& it is &orth mentioning that the creation of a ne& 1outhern 1udanese state might provide the impetus to force 1udan and Cgypt to face the fact they must revise their current treaties governing &ater rights. +o&ever, the perception of voting irregularities, voter disenfranchisement, or a less than clear mandate, could lead to rene&ed violence, distracting the 1udanese, north and south, from contributing to a resolution of <ile &ater issues. %he presence of violent and unpredictable rebel groups also complicates the referendum/s prospects. .f most recent concern is the Hord/s Besistance #rmy (HB#". %his group has e(isted for over a $uarter of a century &ith a primary goal of overthro&ing the :ganda government. +o&ever, their chances for success have deteriorated over time. #ny popular support they may have enAoyed has diminish over time starting &ith their use of guerrilla tactics, follo&ed by their abduction of children to serve as soldiers, and their habit of random killings, all of &hich resulted in their e(ile far JDI13 D3 BeBo Lab Water Af from :ganda &ith little to no political obAectives or in>uence. %oday the HB# @nds itself in south&estern 1udan and human rights organi?ations fear it may attempt to sabotage the coming referendum to grab international attention. %here have also been allegation as recently as in 26, that 1udan/s central government actually armed the HB# &ith the goal of destabili?ing the 1outhern 1udanese regions. %oday, ho&ever, the 1udanese government o=cially condemns acts of violence perpetrated by the HB# (.nyiego, 24". %he lesson of these e(amples is that hunger, economic stresses, and political uncertainty can e(acerbate e(isting divisions. %hese in turn can lead to violent con>icts 69 that have the potential to alter the political situation in the <ile basin. .ngoing con>ict in 1udan has also a3ected the construction of the 8onglei 2anal proAect. %his proAect &as intended to divert the &aters of the White <ile around the s&s of the 1udd. #s discussed previously, it is estimated that the 1udd contains 9W of the White <ile/s &ater >o& at any given time and its large surface area is responsible a large amount of &ater loss through evaporation (Hamberts, 2,". 2onstruction of the diversion canal began in 4,6 but came to a halt Aust three years later due to the rene&ed violence associated &ith 1udan/s intensifying civil &ar. %o date, the proAect is still on hold and only t&o thirds @nished (S8onglei 2anal ProAectP- SWater Pro@le of 1udanS". 5f peace is restored in the south of 1udan it is unclear &hether construction on the 8onglei 2anal &ould resume. # number of the obstacles, &hich previously hindered the proAect, &ould no longer e(ist. Cnergy costs for the drilling machines could be covered by the recent discovery of oil in the 0entiu region. %his region has its o&n separate referendum and may or may not Aoin 1outhern 1udanese secession. 5n addition there is an anticipated return of young adults from the north &here many have gained e(perience in the construction industry (#bdel-)hani, 24". +o&ever, the government of 1outhern 1udan has e(pressed reservations about reviving the proAect, citing adverse political, economic, social and environmental e3ects (1aNoudi, 24". %his is a perfect e(ample of a proAect halted by con>ict that faces an uncertain future due to changing political realities and the possibility of rene&ed con>ict. .n May , t&o senior Cgyptian government o=cials stated that their country reserves the right to take &hatever steps it deems necessary to safeguard its share of <ile &ater, even if that re$uires all out &ar (Kiggundu, 24". %his saber rattling is, of course, 6E in retaliation contested development proAects and the most recent <05 agreement. Cgypt of course claims that these potential revisions threaten Cgyptian and 1udanese &ater security. %he threats are often vague and open to interpretation (#shine, 24" ho&ever they fuel the fear of an escalation from political disagreement to violent confrontation. %o date Cgypt has not openly acted on their threats, +o&ever, as mentioned in the Cthiopia case-study, the sponsoring of insurgency groups is the perhaps the most likely form that retaliation &ould take and such support is hard to trace (Mhango, 24". JDI13 DD BeBo Lab Water Af U =ile , Iran Ce'e&on) E')pt instabilit) ris*s re'ional instabilit)1 'lobal econo&ic an" tra"e "isruption1 Iranian !e'e&on) an" conAict o$er Israel )regory B. Cople) 7+11 (the Cditor-in-2hief and founder (in 4,Q2" of the ;efense b 7oreign #3airs group of publications. +e is founder (in 4,62, &ith ;r 1tefan %. Possony" and President of the 5nternational 1trategic 1tudies #ssociation (511#", the global non-governmental organi?ation (<)." for senior professional o=cials involved &orld&ide in the formulation of national and international strategic policy, heavily involved in classi@ed strategic analysis and operations for governments, &orld&ide, a visiting professor and lecturer at a number of institutions around the &orld, currently including the Curopean 2ultural 2entre, of ;elphi, )reece- the :niversity of 0elgrade- 5ntercollege, in <icosia, 2yprus- and the :niversity of Western #ustralia" 7ebruary 244 O1trategic rami@cations of the Cgyptian crisisP httpKGG&&&.asmarino.comGne&s-analysisG,E-strategic- rami@cations-of-the-egyptian-crisis 5n the preface to the ;efense b 7oreign #3airs +andbook on Cgypt, in 4,,9, 5 notedK 5f Cgypt remains strong, and in all senses a po&er in its regional conte(ts, then &orld events &ill move in one direction. 5f CgyptNs strength is undermined, then &orld events (and not merely those of the Middle Cast" &ill move along a far more uncertain and violent path. 5t is signi@cant that Cgypt began to fail to be strong, internally, &ithin a fe& years of that 4,,9 book. 5t became less resilient as Mubarak became more isolated and the inspiration o3ered by 1adat began to erode. %his resulted in the rise in Cgypt of the 5slamists &ho had killed 1adat, and the gro&ing empo&erment of the veteran 5slamists from the #fghan con>ict, including such @gures as .sama bin Haden (&ho had spent considerable time living in Cgypt", and #yman al-Za&ahiri, et al. %he reality &as that MubarakNs management-style presidency could not o3er the re$uisite hope because hope translates to meaning and identity to Cgyptian society as it &as transitioning from poverty and unemployment to gradually gro&ing &ealth. What are the areas of strategic concern, then, as Cgypt transformsV %he follo&ing are some considerationsK i 1ecurity and stability of 1ue? 2anal sea tra=cK Cven temporary disruption, or the threat of disruptions, to tra=c through the 1ue? 2anal &ould disturb global trade, given that the 2anal and the associated 1:MC; pipeline (&hich takes crude oil north from the Bed 1ea to the Mediterranean" are responsible for signi@cant volumes of &orld trade, including energy shipments. %hreats of delays or closure of the 2anal andGor the 1:MC;, or hints of increased danger to shipping, &ould signi@cantly increase insurance costs on trade, and &ould begin to have shippers consider moving 1ue? tra=c, once again, to the longer and more e(pensive 2ape of )ood +ope sea&ay. i ;isruption of <ile &aters negotiations and matters relatingK CgyptNs support for the emerging independence of 1outh 1udan &as based on that ne& state s control over a considerable stretch of the White <ile, at a time &hen Cgypt has been attempting to dominate ne& treaty discussions regarding <ile (White and 0lue <ile" &ater usage and riparian rights. #lready, Cgyptian ability to negotiate &ith the <ile Biver states has entered an hiatus, and unless the Cgyptian )overnment is able to re-form $uickly around a strong, regionally-focused model, Cgypt &ill have lost all momentum on securing &hat it feels is its dominance over <ile &ater controls. 5n the short term, the Cgyptian situation could provide tremors into northern and 1outh 1udan, and in 1outh 1udan this &ill mean that the :.1., in particular, could be asked to step up support activities to that countryNs independence transition. 1uch a sudden loss of CgyptNs <ile position &ill radically JDI13 DI BeBo Lab Water Af a3ect its long-standing pro(y &ar to keep Cthiopia &hich controls the head&aters and >o& of the 0lue <ile, the <ileNs biggest volume input landlocked and strategically impotent. %his means that CgyptNs ability to block #frican :nion (#:" and #rab Heague denial of sovereignty recognition of the Bepublic of 1omaliland &ill decline or disappear for the time being. #lready CgyptNs in>uence enabled an 5slamist takeover of 1omaliland, possibly moving that state to&ard re-integration &ith the anomic 1omalia state. C$ually importantly, the interregnum in Cgypt &ill mean a cessation of 2airoNs support for Critrea and the pro(y &ar &hich Critrea facilitates but &hich others, particularly Cgypt, pay against Cthiopia through the arming, logistics, training, etc., of anti-Cthiopian groups such as the .romo Hiberation 7ront (.H7", the .gaden <ational Hiberation 7ront (.<H7", etc. .verall security of the Bed 1ea states and 1H.2K Cgypt has been vital to sustaining the tenuous viability of the state of Critrea, because 2airo regarded Critrean loyalty as a key means of sustaining Cgyptian po&er proAection into the Bed 1ea (and ensuring the security of the Bed 1eaG1ue? 1ea Hane of 2ommunication", and to deny such access to 5srael. #bsent Cgyptian support, the Critrean )overnment of President 5sayas #fe&erke &ill begin to feel its isolation and economic deprivation, and may &ell, on its o&n, accelerate ne& pressures for con>ict &ith Cthiopia to distract local populations from the gro&ing deprivation in the country. i %he 5srael situationK # protracted interregnum in Cgypt, or a move by Cgypt to&ard 5slamist or populist governance could bring about a decline in the stability of the Cgypt-5srael peace agreement, and provide an opening of the border &ith the +amas-controlled )a?a region of the Palestinian #uthority lands. %his &ould contribute to the ability of 5ran to escalate pressures on 5srael, and not only further isolate 5srael, but also isolate 8ordan, and, to an e(tent, 1audi #rabia. %he threat of direct military engagement bet&een 5srael and Cgypt may remain lo&, but a move by Cgypt a&ay from being a predictable part of the regional peace system &ould, by default, accelerate the gro&th of the 5ran-1yria-+i?bullah-+amas ability to strategically threaten 5srael. Moreover, the transforming situation &ould also inhibit the West 0ank Palestinian #uthority )overnment. i Castern Mediterranean stabilityK %he instability, and the possible move to&ard greater 5slamist in>uence, in Cgypt reinforces the direction and potential for control of the regional agenda by the 5slamist )overnment of %urkey. 5t is certainly possible that the transformed mood of the Castern Mediterranean could inhibit e(ternal investment in the development of the maAor gas @elds o3 the 5sraeli and 2yprus coasts. %his may be a gradual process, but the overall sense of the stability of the region particularly if 1ue? 2anal closure or de facto closure by any avoidance of it by shippers due to an 5slamist government in 2airo &ould be Aeopardi?ed if the area is no longer the &orld s most important trade route. i 5n>uence on 5ranNs positionK 5t should be considered that any decline in CgyptNs ability to act as the maAor in>uence on the #rab &orld enhances 5ranNs de facto position of authority in the greater Middle Cast. 5t is true that CgyptNs position has been in decline in this regard for the past decade and more, and that even 1audi #rabia has &orked, successfully to a degree, to compete &ith Cgypt for regional (ieK #rab" leadership. Without strong Cgyptian leadership, ho&ever, there is no real counter&eight to 5ranNs ability to intimidate. ;uring the period of the 1hahNs leadership in 5ran (until the revolution of 4,Q, and the 1hahNs departure, ultimately to his death and burial, ironically, in 2airo", 5ran and Cgypt &ere highly compatible strategic partners, stabili?ing the region to a large degree. %he 1hahNs @rst &ife &as Cgyptian. #bsent a strong Cgypt (and, in reality, &e have been absent a strong Cgypt for some years", &e can e(pect gro&ing 5ranian boldness in supporting such groups as those @ghting for the so-called 5slamic Bepublic of Castern #rabia. i :.1. interestsK # stable Cgypt is critical for the maintenance of :.1. strategic interests, JDI13 DH BeBo Lab Water Af given its control of the 1ue?- its partnership in the peace process &ith 5srael- and so on. Why, then, &ould the 0arack .bama administration indicate that it &ould support the masses in the streets of Cgyptian cities at this point. %here is no $uestion that Washington has supported moves to get Mubarak to provide for a smooth succession over recent yearsK that &ould have been bene@cial for Cgypt as &ell as for the :.1. 0ut for the :.1. to actively no& support as 0arack .bama has done the street over orderly transition of po&er lacks strategic sense. 5t is true that the 1tate ;ept., and even the strategically-challenged *ice President 8oe 0iden, have urged caution on the Cgyptian people, but .bama has e3ectively contradicted that approach, as he did in %unisia, &here he literally supported the street revolution against its president earlier in 8anuary. 5f Cgypt moves to anti-Western, anti-:.1. governance, the :.1. &ill be re$uired to re-think its entire strategic approach to the Middle Cast, #frica, and the proAection of po&er through the Castern Mediterranean and into the 5ndian .cean. 5t &ould give a strong boost of importance to the :.1. Paci@c 7leet, &hich is responsible for :.1. proAection the 5ndian .cean. 2C<%2.M (2entral 2ommand" &ould need to be re-thought, as &ould :1#7B52.M (:.1. #frican 2ommand". . i 5mpact on the :.1. positions in 5ra$, #fghanistan, and PakistanK %he loss of Cgypt and the $uestionable ability &hich the :.1. could have over proAection through the 1ue? 2anal if it came to that &ould certainly impact :.1. ability to support the @nal military operations it has in 5ra$, and #fghanistan. # loss (or Aeopardi?ing" of :.1. military access via Cgyptian-controlled areas such as the Bed 1eaG1ue? &ould absolutely fragment the &ay in &hich the :.1. can proAect po&er globally. Cven the accession of an 5slamist state in Cgypt, as opposed to closure of the 1ue? 2anal, &ould achieve much of this. What is clear is that the :.1. did not ade$uately prepare for the end of the Mubarak era, even though it &as absolutely obvious that it &as coming. <o&, only by luck &ill the :.1. see the Cgyptian armed forces re-assert control over Cgypt and introduce a ne& generation of leadership to bridge the transition until the re-emergence of a charismatic leader. i 2oncern over governance transition in republican dynastiesK %he recent street moves against states &ith protracted ieK essentially against normal constitutional viability po&er being held by autocratic leaders over long periods has become a clear message that Western democracies succeed by arranging orderly transitions of po&er, &hether among their constitutional monarchs as heads-of-state, or among their elected governments. 1tates &hich rise and fall &ith each successive and uneasy often violent transfer of po&er from one leader to the ne(t, or in &hich autocrats attempt to impose their children as their successors &ithout the legitimacy of a nationally- evolved monarchy or tradition, are in increasing peril as to their long-term stability. 1yria, for e(ample, in the region continues to founder although it achieved the transfer of one #ssad to the ne(t, but it does not prosper. Hibya, #lgeria, Cthiopia, Critrea, Xemen, and <orth Korea, for e(ample, all must consider that e(tended governance &ithout legitimate options for the future encourages decline and instability. i 5ssues of military technology and e$uipment relationsK #ny move by Cgypt a&ay from its pro-:.1. position including, and particularly, the prospect of an administration headed by self-styled opposition leader Mohamed Clbaradei, &ould result in a maAor compromise of :.1. military technology. %he Cgyptian armed forces have a maAor defense supply relationship &ith the :.1., particularly &ith high-pro@le systems such as late-model Hockheed Martin 7-4E2G; 0lock 9G92 @ghters, M4#4 main battle tanks, #+-E!#G; #pache and #pache Hongbo& attack helicopters, :+-E 0lack +a&k helicopters, a &ide range of surface- and air-mounted missile systems, and so on. %he reality is that further north in the Mediterranean, the defense supply relationship &ith %urkey is already compromised, but the :.1. )overnment &ill not recogni?e that. 7irstly, the supply relationship &ith %urkey means that the JDI13 DO BeBo Lab Water Af technology itself may be compromised to other states (5ran, Bussia", to some e(tent, and no& &ill almost certainly not be used to support :.1.G<#%. initiatives. 5n Cgypt, a similar situation could prevail if the armed forces do not take control and e(clude Clbaradei andGor other anti-:.1. 5slamists or populists. President )amal #bdel <asser &as charismatic and transformative, but not necessarily a leader &ho delivered a strong ne& architecture to Cgypt. 1adat gradually emerged as charismatic, and he &as transformative in a very meaningful &ay for the country. 5t took three decades of MubarakNs invisible presence for so much of 1adatNs vision to erode, and yet 1adatNs national architecture remains intact if someone &ould be able to pick up the reins of real leadership. What is signi@cant is that the Cgyptian Boyal 7amily has not re-emerged from e(ile to o3er some hope of a restoration of traditional Cgyptian values. 5f the populist and vehemently anti-:.1. ally of 5ran, Mohamed Clbaradei, sei?es control of the Cgyptian mob because that is his goalK to position himself at the front of a mob not of his o&n making he &ould certainly re- introduce a great element of instability to the region, and bolster 5ranNs position. Cven &ithout directly &orking &ith 5ran, merely by pushing Cgypt into an investment-averse situation, 5ranNs regional po&er &ould gro&, and Cgypt &ould be under the grip of a vain and shallo& man far more detrimental to the nationNs long- term interests even than Mubarak. <ot insigni@cantly, &hen :.1. left-leaning television ne&s net&ork 2<< intervie&ed and essentially played softly &ith Clbaradei, the former :< o=cial &as &earing a green tie, meant to be a clear signal to 5ran and the 5slamists. Iran !e'e&on) ris*s nuclear %ar +erbert 5( Lon"on 1+, President Cmeritus of +udson 5nstitute, O%he 2oming 2risis in the Middle CastP, 8une 2F, httpKGG&&&.hudson.orgGinde(.cfmV fuseaction_publicationLdetailsbid_Q44bpub%ype_+5L.peds %he gathering storm in the Middle Cast is gaining momentum. War clouds are on the hori?on and like conditions prior to World War 5 all it takes for e(plosive action to commence is a trigger. %urkey/s provocative >otilla - often described in .r&ellian terms as a humanitarian mission - has set in motion a >urry of diplomatic activity, but if the 5ranians send escort vessels for the ne(t round of %urkish ships, it could present a casus belli. 5t is also instructive that 1yria is playing a dangerous game &ith both missile deployment and rearming +e?bollah. #ccording to most public accounts +e?bollah is sitting on !, long, medium and short range missiles and 1yrian territory has served as a conduit for military material from 5ran since the end of the 2E Hebanon War. 1hould 1yria move its o&n scuds to Hebanon or deploy its troops as reinforcement for +e?bollah, a &ider regional &ar &ith 5srael could not be contained. 5n the backdrop is an 5ran &ith su=cient @ssionable material to produce a couple of nuclear &eapons. 5t &ill take some time to &eaponi?e missiles, but the road to that goal is synchroni?ed in green lights since neither diplomacy nor diluted sanctions can convince 5ran to change course. 5ran is poised to be the hegemon in the Middle Cast. 5t is increasingly considered the Ostrong horseP as #merican forces incrementally retreat from the region. Cven 5ra$, ironically, may depend on 5ranian ties in order to maintain internal stability. 7rom Ratar to #fghanistan all political eyes are on 5ran. 7or 1unni nations like Cgypt and 1audi #rabia regional strategic vision is a combination of deal making to o3set the 5ranian 1hia advantage and attempting to buy or develop nuclear &eapons as a counter &eight to 5ranian ambition. +o&ever, both of these governments are in a precarious state. 1hould either fall, all bets are o3 in the Middle Cast neighborhood. 5t has long been said JDI13 DF BeBo Lab Water Af that the 1unni OtentP must stand on t&o legs, if one, falls, the tent collapses. 1hould that tent collapse and should 5ran take advantage of that calamity, it could incite a 1unni-1hia &ar. .r feeling its oats and no longer dissuaded by an escalation scenario &ith nuclear &eapons in to&, &ar against 5srael is a distinct possibility. +o&ever, implausible it may seem at the moment, the possible annihilation of 5srael and the prospect of a second holocaust could lead to a nuclear e(change. %he only &ild card that can change this slide into &arfare is an active :nited 1tates/ policy. Xet curiously, the :.1. is engaged in both an emotional and physical retreat from the region. ;espite rhetoric &hich suggests an 5ran &ith nuclear &eapons is intolerable, it has done nothing to forestall that eventual outcome. ;espite the investment in blood and treasure to allo& a stable government to emerge in 5ra$, the anticipated &ithdra&al of :.1. forces has prompted President Maliki to travel to %ehran on a regular basis. #nd despite historic links to 5srael that gave the :.1. leverage in the region and a democratic ally, the .bama administration treats 5srael as a national security albatross that must be disposed of as soon as possible. #s a conse$uence, the :.1. is perceived in the region as the O&eak horse,P the one that is dangerous to ride. 5n every Middle Cast capital the &ords Ounreliable and :nited 1tatesP are linked. %hose seeking a moderate course of action are no& in a distinct minority. # political vacuum is emerging, one that is not sustainable and one the 5ranian leadership looks to &ith imperial e(hilaration. 5t is no longer a $uestion of &hether &ar &ill occur, but rather &hen it &ill occur and &here it &ill break out. %here are many triggers to ignite the e(plosion, but not many scenarios for containment. 2ould it be a regional &ar in &hich Cgypt and 1audi #rabia &atch from the sidelines, but secretly &ish for 5sraeli victoryV .r is this a &ar in &hich there aren/t victors, only devastationV Moreover, should &ar break out, &hat does the :.1. doV %his is a description far more dire than any in the last century and, even if some believe my vie& is overly pessimistic, #rab and 8e&, Persian and Cgyptian, Muslim and Maronite tend to believe in its veracity. %hat is a truly bad sign. JDI13 DG BeBo Lab Water Af =ile "n Coop 8iparian nations are re/ectin' t!e =ile Basin reat) in #a$or o# unilateral policies Lau"icina 7+13 Hee #., 8uris ;octor candidate at Hoyola :niversity 2hicago 1chool of Ha&, 26. +e received a 0achelor of #rts from the :niversity of Michigan, 29. 8anuary F4, O5nternational Water ;isputesK +o& to Prevent a War .ver the <ile Biver,P httpKGG&&&.luc.eduGla&GmediaGla&GstudentsGpublicationsGilrGpdfsGlaudicinaL&ater.pdf +o&ever, the other riparian nations !a$e expresse" "issatis#action %it! t!eir current access to =ile %aters( QQ Cthiopia, for e(ample, one of the &orld/s poorest nations, accounts for more than Q9W of the &ater >o&ing into the <ile, but con- sumes less than 4W of the <ile/s &ater. Q6 1ince 4,9Q, Et!iopia !as spo*en o# pursuin' unilateral %ater "e$elop&ent Q, an" has recently announce" plans to use =ile %ater #or irri'ation( 6 1imilarly, an5ania is #or&ulatin' a W7O(H billion pro/ect to construct a pipeline %!ic! extracts "rin*in' %ater #ro& t!e =ile. 64 7urther, since its independence, t!e Qen)an 'o$ern&ent !as state" publicly that it "oes not reco'ni5e t!e treat)( 62 ;espite such dissatisfaction, the treaty has remained intact because E')pt !as &a"e it *no%n t!at it %ill consi"er an) at- te&pt to $iolate t!e treat) as an act o# %ar. 6F 5n renouncing the treaty, %an?ania/s Minister of Water Besources, Cd&ard Ho&asa, e(plained its ine$uitable underpinnings by saying, Othe treaties have been entered into &ithout the consent of the people of the region. %he 0ritish had no mandate to sign treaties &ith Cgypt on our behalf.P 6! #s outrage spread throughout <orthern #frica, the Cast #frican press printed editorials chronicling the inAustice of the treaty as a Ocolonial relic.P 69 +o&ever, Cgypt/s Minister of Water and 5rrigation, Mahmoud #bu-Zeid, e(- claimed that Oan) unilateral c!an'e in t!e 1G7G =ile Basin reat) %oul" be a breac! o# international la%(4 6E Cven though all the riparian nations did not ratify the treaty, #bu-Zeid/s claim has merit because non-party states are bound by a provision in an international treaty &hen it rises to the level of international cus- tomary la& (as the <ile 0asin %reaty has". 6Q #s a result, #or c!an'e to be efec- ti$e1 it &ust be a'ree" upon collecti$el) %it! all t!e riparian nations1 inclu"in' E')pt an" Su"an( JDI13 I+ BeBo Lab Water Af U =ile , Et!nic ConAict 8esol$in' %ater "isputes is *e) to o$erco&e et!nic tensions an" pre$ent conAict Lau"icina 7+13 Hee #., 8uris ;octor candidate at Hoyola :niversity 2hicago 1chool of Ha&, 26. +e received a 0achelor of #rts from the :niversity of Michigan, 29. 8anuary F4, O5nternational Water ;isputesK +o& to Prevent a War .ver the <ile Biver,P httpKGG&&&.luc.eduGla&GmediaGla&GstudentsGpublicationsGilrGpdfsGlaudicinaL&ater.pdf .ther problems in the area include recurrent "rou'!ts1 conAicts o# interest ste&&in' #ro& et!nic ri$alries1 4F an" se$ere pollution. 4! 7or e(ample, La*e Pictoria, the <ile/s maAor source, O!as beco&e t!e toilet #or East A#rica. People are doing all sorts of things in the lake'including urinating ]and^ passing stools.P 49 While the <05 has much &ork left to do, Oi# countries s!arin' t!e %ater%a) are able to rise abo$e t!e !istor)1 t!e po$ert)1 an" t!e conAict t!at t!reatens cooperati$e en'a'e&ent1 t!e pa)-of &a) be si'ni2cant econo&ic "e- $elop&ent an" re'ional peace(4 4E %oday, the 4,2, treaty continues to govern the <ile 0asin as customary inter- national la&. %he <05 represents a momentous step of collective action, but %it!out efecti$e en#orce&ent &ec!anis&s in place1 it %ill not pre$ent conAict. ;espite international discussions beginning to form, Cgypt still controls the &ater supply, tensions remain high, and faced &ith e(treme poverty, disease and drought, ot!er Basin nations are be'innin' to ta*e unilateral actions to $iolate o# t!e treat)( JDI13 I1 BeBo Lab Water Af =ile States Mo"el :1-Me(ico model &ill be applied to the <ile 0asin Lau"icina 7+13 Hee #., 8uris ;octor candidate at Hoyola :niversity 2hicago 1chool of Ha&, 26. +e received a 0achelor of #rts from the :niversity of Michigan, 29. 8anuary F4, O5nternational Water ;isputesK +o& to Prevent a War .ver the <ile Biver,P httpKGG&&&.luc.eduGla&GmediaGla&GstudentsGpublicationsGilrGpdfsGlaudicinaL&ater.pdf !e 'eneral contention a&on' international practitioners an" co&&entators is t!at it is not possible to establis! a 'eneric &o"el o# %ater la% applicable to all nations. 4!, 6et1 'reat pro'ress can be &a"e in t!e =ile Basin i# t!e riparian nations supple&ent t!e =BI b) extractin' #eatures #ro& t!e recent United States'Mexico ne'otiations, the privati?ation model, and the human rights model. %o prevent future con>ict, 0asin nations should focus on their common interests and develop a central institution backed by private funding that has the po&er to enforce agreements, &hich maintain >e(ible standards of &ater alloca- tion and $uality. !e US-Mexico a'ree&ent sets t!e #ra&e%or* #or co&pro&ise on t!e =ile Basin "ispute , IBWC "ata s!arin' &et!o"s %oul" be t!e *e) internal #or an) a'ree&ent Lau"icina 7+13 Hee #., 8uris ;octor candidate at Hoyola :niversity 2hicago 1chool of Ha&, 26. +e received a 0achelor of #rts from the :niversity of Michigan, 29. 8anuary F4, O5nternational Water ;isputesK +o& to Prevent a War .ver the <ile Biver,P httpKGG&&&.luc.eduGla&GmediaGla&GstudentsGpublicationsGilrGpdfsGlaudicinaL&ater.pdf Xet, the recent ne'otiations bet%een t!e United States an" Mexico do !a$e positi$e aspects %!ic! can !elp t!e =ile Basin, as &ell as shortcomings &hich can be improved upon in future <ile negotiations. 7irst, and &ost i&portantl), Minutes FQ and F6 s!o% an interest o# increase" collaboration #or bot! coun- tries an" illustrate "iplo&atic co&pro&ise as a means to tame tensions over inter- national &ater. 49F C(pressing such a common interest has been the greatest success of the <05 49! and such e3orts must continue to e(pand. <05 C(ecutive ;irector MeraAi Msuya recogni?ed the accomplishment in saying, Othere has been tremendous achievement ]since the formation of the <05^. ;eople are no% tal*- in' openl) about t!e =ile . . . not like it &as ten to @fteen years ago &hen no one could talk about it.P 499 %he 50W2 also e(poses t&o important features of an e3ective transboundary &ater agreementK the importance of sharing data and the need to establish an enforcement institution. !e =ile nations &ust co&&it to &ore extensi$e "ata- s!arin' &et!o"s t!an t!e United States an" Mexico "i" %it! t!e IBWC1 %!ic! le#t t!e responsibilit) o# "ata interpretation to in"i$i"ual 'o$ern&ents( 49E %his &ill be especially di=cult in <orthern #frica Obecause most basin countries lack the capacity to share environmental and scienti@c data on the shared &ater use and development initiatives.P 49Q Since t!e IBWC %as not #ull) efecti$e in &on- itorin' s!orta'es in binational ri$ers, 496 =ile nations &ust "e$elop a si&ilar insti- tution t!at !as extensi$e po%ers to s!are "ata and enforce &ater allotments. # maAor problem JDI13 I7 BeBo Lab Water Af across most international &ater agreements is that Oapart from the force of public opinion, t!ere is no efecti$e &onitorin' an" co&pliance s)ste& to ensure t!at obli'ations assu&e" un"er treaties are en#orce" %it!in na- tional boun"aries.P 49, Most riparian nations have also had trouble enforcing in- ternational agreements because they have not clearly de@ned their &ater boundaries. 4E %he creation of a central institution similar to the 50W2, but &ith po&ers to interpret data, enforce agreements, and de@ne boundaries, &ould be a signi@cant step to&ard not only reaching an agreement today, but also to&ard ensuring the success of future agreements. 4E4 When creating such an institution, 0asin nations should follo& recent trends in environmental border management that favor greater public participation. 4E2 # maAor &eakness of the 4,!! treaty is that it contains no provision for public consultation, relations, or participation. 4EF 5nternational politics professor 1te- phen P. Mumme noted, O]a^s originally conceived, then, the 50W2 &as to be a secretive, hierarchical, and other&ise narro& body . . . ]&ith an^ e(clusivist, priv- ileged approach to border &ater management.P 4E! <ile nations could avoid such a do&nfall by creating a representative body to assess progress to&ard stated goals and strategies. 4E9 1uch active public participation Ois re$uired to maintain the legitimacy and strength of regulatory and management bodies.P !e US-Mexico &o"el creates inter"epen"ence sol$in' conAict Lau"icina 7+13 Hee #., 8uris ;octor candidate at Hoyola :niversity 2hicago 1chool of Ha&, 26. +e received a 0achelor of #rts from the :niversity of Michigan, 29. 8anuary F4, O5nternational Water ;isputesK +o& to Prevent a War .ver the <ile Biver,P httpKGG&&&.luc.eduGla&GmediaGla&GstudentsGpublicationsGilrGpdfsGlaudicinaL&ater.pdf #s proponents for the privati?ation model profess, funding &ill be a maAor hurdle for the poverty-stricken basin nations. While avoiding the risk of deepen- ing ine$ualities inherent in the full scale privati?ation model, <orth #frican countries should take advantage of the model/s aggressive funding procedures. #dopting a large-scale e3ort to attract @nances from abroad is a fundamental necessity for poor nations. 0y building international trust and identifying similar interests &ith other nations, obtaining such funds is a realistic goal. Loo*in' at t!e United States an" Mexico #or exa&ple1 3"ue to t!e proxi&it) o# t!e t%o states1 en$iron&ental !a5ar"s create" in Mexico b) a lac* o# in#rastructure "i- rectl) afect bot! si"es o# t!e bor"erB t!ere#ore1 t!e United States !as a $este" interest in assistin' Mexico %it! %ater suppl) an" treat&ent #acilities(4 4Q! Wit! so &an) inter"epen"ent nations on t!e =ile a&i" serious "rou'!t1 pollution1 an" po$ert) concerns1 t!e =BI can appeal to si&ilar international interests. 0y mid 2!, the <05 had already raised `4F million from donors. 4Q9 %he solutions proposed herein &ill allo& the <ile 0asin to e3ectively deal &ith problems of population gro&th, urbani?ation, poverty, political instability, and pollution. 7le(ible standards designed to evolve &ith time are apt to accom- modate shifting population and urbani?ation trends. 5ncreased international fund- ing &ill supplement insu=cient infrastructural budgets and minimum standards of $uality &ill raise the level of life at the poverty line and reduce pollution. Hastly, by strengthening binational forums and implementing an inter-govern- mental institution &ith the po&er to enforce agreements, cooperati$e eforts %ill JDI13 I3 BeBo Lab Water Af ulti&atel) alle$iate political instabilit) b) #osterin' trust an" co&&unication t!rou'!out t!e re'ion. =ile Basin %ill &o"el t!e US-Mexico ne'otiation process , I# it #ails1 conAict %ill be e$en %orse Lau"icina 7+13 Hee #., 8uris ;octor candidate at Hoyola :niversity 2hicago 1chool of Ha&, 26. +e received a 0achelor of #rts from the :niversity of Michigan, 29. 8anuary F4, O5nternational Water ;isputesK +o& to Prevent a War .ver the <ile Biver,P httpKGG&&&.luc.eduGla&GmediaGla&GstudentsGpublicationsGilrGpdfsGlaudicinaL&ater.pdf #lthough conAict o$er t!e =ile %aters &a) li*el) escalate to %ar#are, if man- aged correctly, t!e international &ater s!orta'e can ser$e as a pat!%a) to peace. 4QE 0y coming together, countries can build trust and prevent con>ict. 4QQ %he <ile nations must use &ater as a negotiating tool, &hich o3ers communica- tion and common interests in the midst of crisis. 4Q6 %he <05 is a monumental step, but there is much more &ork to be done. Despite recent increase" co&&unications1 relations bet%een E')pt an" Qen)a !it a lo% "urin' a &eetin' o# t!e =ile-COM in ;ecember 2E &hen OKenya/s Minister of Water Besources, Marha Karua, stormed out of the talks after dis- agreements about sharing of the <ile/s resources, an action that &as termed a edeclaration of &ar/ by her Cgyptian counterpart, Mahmoud #bu-Zeid.P 4Q, %he recent ne'otiations bet%een t!e United States an" Mexico !a$e s!o%n t!at i&ple&entin' an inter- 'o$ern&ental institution "esi'ne" to s!are "ata an" en#orce #uture a'ree&ents %ill enable co-riparian nations to be'in pa$in' a pat! to peace( <egotiations must involve active public participation and >e(ible stan- dards &hich evolve as demands change. %he <05 must also continue focused e3orts to attract international investors and foster international communication. 8oint development of the <ile/s resources creates an opportunity to institution- ali?e cooperation in a &in-&in situation for 0asin nations plagued by a history of &arfare. Xet, "espite recent pro'ress1 #ailure o# t!e =BI %oul" 'enerate e$en 'reater &istrust an" suspicion a&on' co-riparian nations1 t!us &a*in' t!e ris* o# ar&e" conAict e$en &ore probable. 46 Becogni?ing the gravity of the situation, the Minister of Water #3airs and 7orestry in 1outh #frica, Bonnie Kasrils, said O]b^ut 5 state very clearly'&e can deliver clean drinking &ater and ade$uate sanitation to the people of the &orld 57 WC %B:HX W#<% %., 57 WC +#*C %+C P.H5%52#H W5HH %. ;. 1..P 464 With the need for change in the inter- national spotlight, t!e ti&e #or action is no% an" t!e nations o# t!e =ile 8i$er &ust #ocus on t!eir co&&on interests b) loo*in' to ot!er transboun"ar) %ater "isputes an" propose" solutions #or efecti$e &et!o"s o# #osterin' collecti$e action( !e recent United StatesD Mexico a'ree&ents illustrate t!e i&portance o# a trans-national %ater &ana'e&ent s)ste& &ith the po&er to enforce agreements through a centrali?ed institution. 7urther, the &ater $uality standards of the human rights model provide a strategy to prevent disease and decrease pollution. 7inally, the methodology of the privati?ation model creates a means to generate the necessary funding to produce a lasting e3ect. %hus, implementing an interna- tional system of collective action based upon each of these principles has the potential not only to prevent &ar in <orthern JDI13 ID BeBo Lab Water Af #frica, but also to promote peace and provide &ater to the citi?ens of one of the most over-populated and impover- ished regions in the &orld. JDI13 II BeBo Lab Water Af A Water Wars D =ile %ar:s insulate" #ro& 'eneric %ater %ar D S!inn H httpKGGelliott.g&u.eduGne&sGspeechesGshinnQELnilebasin.cfm #mb. ;avid +. 1hinn #dAunct Professor, Clliott 1chool of 5nternational #3airs %he )eorge Washington :niversity %here is one school of thought that argues there has never been a maAor con>ict over access to fresh &ater. 2onse$uently, there is no reason to get e(ercised about a possible &ar over &ater in the <ile 0asin. .thers, this author included, are not as sure, particularly as populations increase and the demand for &ater e(ceeds supply. Hester 0ro&n, founder of World&atch 5nstitute, argues that &ater scarcity is the Ssingle biggest threat to global food security,S adding there is little &ater left &hen the <ile reaches the Mediterranean. %he #s&an ;am no& holds back most of the silt that once formed the rich agricultural land in the <ile ;elta, &hich is eroding into the sea in some places at a rate of 4 meters annually. 5nternational con>ict e(pert %homas +omer-;i(on has suggested that con>ict is most probable &hen a do&nstream riparian is highly dependent on river &ater and is militarily and economically strong in comparison to upstream riparians. %his is precisely the case &ith Cgypt. 5t depends on the <ile and is far stronger militarily, politically, and economically than 1udan or Cthiopia. Cgyptian President #n&ar el-1adat stated in 4,6K S5f Cthiopia takes any action to block our right to the <ile &aters, there &ill be no alternative for us but to use force. %ampering &ith the rights of a nation to &ater is tampering &ith its life and a decision to go to &ar on this score is indisputable in the international community.S %he former Cgyptian defense minister reiterated in 4,,4 CgyptNs readiness to use force, if necessary, to protect its control of the <ile. CthiopiaNs minister of &ater resources announced in 4,,Q at a conference in #ddis #baba on the <ile Biver 0asin #ction Plan that Sas a source and maAor contribution of the <ile &aters, Cthiopia has the right to have an e$uitable share of the <ile &aters and reserves its rights to make use of its &aters.S CthiopiaNs foreign minister stated in 4,,6 that Sthere is no earthly force that can stop Cthiopia from bene@ting from the <ile.S %he Cgyptian irrigation minister announced in 2! in advance of a meeting &ith other riparians that the talks must not Stouch CgyptNs historical rightsS to <ile &ater. Bather, riparian states should focus on &ays to recover &ater that is being &asted. Cthiopian Prime Minister Meles Zena&i &arned in 29 that Sif Cgypt &ere to plan to stop Cthiopia from utili?ing the <ile &ater it &ould have to occupy Cthiopia and no country on earth has done that in the past.S (5taly, of course, did Aust that from 4,FE-!4. Cgypt is in no position today, ho&ever, to occupy Cthiopia although it could in>ict considerable damage by air." %he current Cgyptian foreign minister, in response to demands by upstream riparians to revie& the <ile treaties, commented in 29 that Cgypt &ill not give up its share of <ile &ater. 7ormer Cgyptian 7oreign Minister and :< 1ecretary )eneral 0outros 0outros )hali told the 002 in 29 that military confrontation bet&een the countries of the <ile 0asin &as almost inevitable unless they could agree to share &ater e$uitably. +e concluded that Sthe ne(t &ar among countries &ill not be for oil or territorial borders, but only for the problem of &ater.S 5t should be eminently possible to avoid &ar over &ater in the <ile 0asin. 0ut to suggest that it &ill not happen Aust because there has not been a &ar over access to fresh &ater in the past is not persuasive. JDI13 IH BeBo Lab Water Af JDI13 IO BeBo Lab Water Af NWater WarsL JDI13 IF BeBo Lab Water Af 1AC !e US-Mexico bor"er re'ion is a potential Aas!point #or %ater conAict Ju"'e 7+13 2lark, managing director of the White +ouse Writers )roup, 5nc. and chairman of Paci@c Besearch 5nstitute, O%he 2oming Water Wars,P httpKGG&&&.usne&s.comGopinionGblogsGclark-AudgeG24FG2G4,Gthe-ne(t-big-&ars- &ill-be-fought-over-&ater #round the &orld, t!e Institute !as 2n'ere" &ore t!an t%ent) conAicts an" potential conAicts concernin' "i$ision o# ri$er Ao%s bet&een upstream and do&nstream users. %hese range from tensions &ithin 2hina over the Xangt?e to discord bet&een Mali, <iger, <igeria, and )uinea over the <iger and bet&een 5ra$, 1yria, and %urkey over the %igris and Cuphrates. Cven t!e United States is on t!e list> !e United States an" Mexico !a$e lon' s.uabble" o$er t!e 8io <ran"e1 8io Bra$o1 8io Conc!os1 an" Colora"o s)ste&s1 all o# %!ic! rise in t!e United States but are crucial to nort!ern Mexico.\ #s &ith separatist movements, &ater disputes also reach into &hat before the @nancial crisis #mericans &ere inclined to regard as placid Curope. 5n 4,,Q the 5nternational 2ourt of 8ustice &as asked to resolve a controversy bet&een the 1lovak Bepublic and +ungary. #t issue &ere a 4,!Q treaty and 1lovakiaNs (and before it 2?echoslovakiaNs" recent diversion of the ;anube. %he @ve-year-long disagreement occasioned escalating verbal battles, massive public protests and at one point military maneuvers along the border. A&erica is on t!e brin* o# 'oin' to %ar %it! Mexico o$er %ater Ca%*es 7+17 Hogan, a &riter, publisher, broadcaster and 5nternet guide, OWater &ar &ith Me(ico looms in 1outh&est,P httpKGG&esternfarmpress.comGgovernmentG&ater-&ar-me(ico- looms-south&est World leaders, diplomats and even scientists have been &arning us for years that t!e next <reat War %ill be o$er %ater and not oil, a resoun"in' senti&ent ec!oin' across t!e U(S( MMexico bor"er t!is %ee* as "is'runtle" #ar&ers1 politicians an" co&&unit) lea"ers #ro& bot! si"es %orr) about %!ere t!e %ater %ill co&e #ro& to 'ro% t!eir crops t!is )ear. \ Cars! %or"s !a$e alrea") starte" to A) o$er a recently announced 5nternational 0oundary and Water 2ommission (50W2" plan to release &ater from t!e 8io <ran"e Biver to Me(ico this month, earlier in the year than usual, a &o$e exas an" =e% Mexico irri'ation "istricts sa) %ill cause serious loss o# %ater to e$aporation at a ti&e %!en U(S( #ar&ers are 'oin' to nee" e$er) inc! t!e) can 2n" #ollo%in' last )ear:s "rou'!t( Water %ars out%ei'!-&ost li*el) extinction scenario In !ese i&es 7 (44G44, httpKGG&&&.inthesetimes.comGissueG2EG29Gculture4.shtml JDI13 IG BeBo Lab Water Af in !ese i&es is a nonpro@t, independent, national maga?ine published in 2hicago. We/ve been around since 4,QE, @ghting for corporate accountability and progressive government. 5n other &ords, a better &orld cites environmental thinker and activist *andana 1hiva Maude 0arlo& and %ony 2larke'probably <orth #merica/s foremost &ater e(perts %he t&o books provide a chilling, in-depth e(amination of a rapidly emerging global crisis. ORuite simply,P 0arlo& and 2larke &rite, Ounless &e dramatically change our &ays, bet&een one-half and t&o-thirds of humanity &ill be living &ith severe fresh &ater shortages &ithin the ne(t $uarter-century. g %he hard ne&s is thisK +umanity is depleting, diverting and polluting the planet/s fresh &ater resources so $uickly and relentlessly that every species on earth'including our o&n'is in mortal danger.P %he crisis is so great, the three authors agree, that the &orld/s ne(t great &ars &ill be over &ater. %he Middle Cast, parts of #frica, 2hina, Bussia, parts of the :nited 1tates and several other areas are already struggling to e$uitably share &ater resources. Many con>icts over &ater are not even recogni?ed as suchK 1hiva blames the 5sraeli-Palestinian con>ict in part on the severe scarcity of &ater in settlement areas. #s available fresh &ater on the planet decreases, today/s lo&- level con>icts can only increase in intensity Water s!orta'es cause" b) %ar&in' e&pericall) cause %ater %ars Qol&anns*o' F (*ikram .dedra, #pril, <or&eigan Befugee 2ouncil, O7uture >oods of refugeesK # comment on climate change, con>ict and forced migrationP, httpKGG&&&.nrc.noGarchGLimgG,2E6!6.pdf, #ccessed EG26G6" Water scarcit) &a) tri''er "istributional conAicts. Water scarcity by itself does not necessarily lead to con>ict and violence, though. %here is an interaction &ith other socio-economic and political factorsK %he potential for con>ict often relates to social discrimination in terms of access to safe and clean &ater. %he risk can therefore be reduced by ensuring Aust distribution so that people in disadvantaged areas also have access to the safe and clean &ater. #s already pointed out, a &ain proble& to"a) ?an" probabl) #or t!e near #uture@ is still t!e so-calle" econo&ic %ater scarcit)1 an" 'oo" %ater &ana'e&ent can pre$ent conAict( Wit!in states1 'roups !a$e o#ten "e#en"e" or c!allen'e" tra"itional ri'!ts o# %ater use> In se&i-ari" re'ions suc! as t!e Sa!el t!ere !a$e been tensions bet%een #ar&ers an" no&a"ic !er"ers. #ccording to The Stern Review on The Econoics of Cliate Change,!4 t!e "rou'!ts in t!e Sa!el in t!e 1GO+s an" 1GF+s &a) !a$e been cause" partl) b) cli&ate c!an'e an" contribute" to increase" co&petition #or scarce resources bet%een t!ese 'roups( !e uare' rebellion in Mali in t!e be'innin' o# t!e 1GG+s1 is also &entione" as an exa&ple o# a cli&ate c!an'e-relate" conAict ( Man) o# t!e "rou'!t-struc* no&a"s sou'!t re#u'e in t!e cities or le#t t!e countr)( !e lac* o# social net%or*s #or t!e returnees1 t!e continuin' "rou'!t1 co&petition #or lan" %it! t!e settle" #ar&ers an" "issatis#action %it! t!e aut!orities1 %ere #actors t!at #uelle" t!e ar&e" rebellion ( In t!e past t!ere !a$e been #e% exa&ples o# 3%ater %ars4 bet%een states. 5n fact there are several cases of cooperation (for e(ample bet&een Palestine and 5srael", but these have generally concerned bene@t-sharing, not burden-sharing. #ccording to 7red Pearce, the de@ning crises of the 24st century &ill involve &ater.!2 +e sees the 1i( ;ay War in 4,EQ bet&een 5srael and its JDI13 H+ BeBo Lab Water Af neighbours as the @rst modern O&ater &arP, speci@cally over the Biver 8ordan. Most o# t!e %orl":s &a/or ri$ers cross international boun"aries1 but are not co$ere" b) treaties( Accor"in' to ;earce1 t!is is a recipe #or conAict an" #or upstrea& users to !ol" "o%nstrea& users to ranso&. %his could be helped by internationally brokered deals for sharing such rivers. ;lan is *e) to US %ater lea"ers!ip an" cooperati$e #ra&e%or*s #or "ealin' %it! #uture s!orta'es( <leic* in 17 (Peter +- Mac#rthur 7ello& co-founder and president of the Paci@c 5nstitute in .akland, 2alifornia and Ph; +ydroclimatology T 0erkeley- O:nited 1tates 5nternational Water Policy,P A Twenty-First Century US Water Policy- ed 8uliet 2hristian-1mith and Peter )leick- p." !e Unite" States coul" be a po%er#ul1 efecti$e1 an" inAuential $oice #or sustainable %ater &ana'e&ent an" for t!e use o# the tools o# cooperation an" conAict resolution in &ana'in' %ater "isputes around the &orld. #pplying these tools consistently &ould be bene@cial to the :1 economy, human health, and foreign a3airs. !ere are se$eral critical areas %!ere #e"eral in$ol$e&ent an" responsibilit) are *e) to efecti$e an" e9cient international %ater polic). E$er) &a/or %aters!e" in t!e Unite" States spans t%o or &ore states1 an" &an) cross our bor"ers %it! Mexico and 2anada. !e #e"eral role in ne'otiatin' compacts and a'ree&ents t!at a""ress na$i'ation, trade, &ater allocation1 an" &ater .ualit) is enshrined in constitutional principles, but s!oul" be rein#orce" %it! resources to per&it a &ore acti$e efort to resolve disputes. %he recent %or* o# #e"eral a'encies in !elpin' alle$iate interstate %ater "isputes bet%een the states that share the 2olorado Biver s!o%s t!e i&portance o# #e"eral in$ol$e&ent in ongoing disputes that states are unable to resolve alone (#dler and 1traube 2". 1imilarly, e(panded federal involvement is needed #or resol$in' "isputes %it! both 2anada and Mexico. J26!-269M JDI13 H1 BeBo Lab Water Af Mo"elin' US-Mexico a'ree&ents on %ater cooperation pro$i"e an international &o"el , 8ecent pilot pro'ra& pro$es Dibble an" <ar"ner 7+17 1andra, sta3 &riter #<; Michael, &orks in the :-%/s 1acramento bureau, covering politics from the governor to local legislators, <ov. 24, OMCc52.-:.1. 15)< +51%.B52 2.H.B#;. B5*CB ;C#H,P httpKGG&&&.utsandiego.comGne&sG242GnovG24Gtp-me(ico- us-sign-historic-colorado-river-dealGallGVprint !e pact is &ore pilot t!an per&anent1 exten"in' /ust 2$e )ears until it !as to be reopene". 5t establishes a number of policies for both sides, including de@ning rights to Hake Mead &ater, repairing the earth$uake- damaged irrigation net&ork in the Me(icali *alley and guaranteeing >o&s for @sh and &ildlife in the Me(ican delta.OE$en t!ou'! %e are t%o separate nations1 %e "o s!are one %ater suppl)1P said 8eanine 8ones, 2alifornia/s principal e(pert on the river. OWe do have to &ork together to get better together.P Sala5ar sai" t!e a'ree&ent s!o%s an e$olution to%ar" cooperation bet%een all parties %it! a sta*e in t!e Colora"o 8i$er an" coul" act as an 3international &o"el4 #or ot!er ri$er-s!arin' ne'otiations, such as those involving the Bio )rande. OWe have chosen collaboration over con>ict,P he said. 1ala?ar cited several looming challenges that the pact is meant to address. )ro&th is one. Anot!er is cli&ate c!an'e1 %!ic! scientists sai" is ta*in' a toll on t!e entire Colora"o 8i$er s)ste& b) prolon'in' "r) spells( 3We are connecte" b) our alliance on t!e Colora"o 8i$er1 an" to'et!er %e #ace t!e ris* o# re"uce" supplies in t!e )ears a!ea"14 he said. %he agreement, formally kno&n as Minute F4,, &ill be carried out under the overarching 4,!! :.1.- Me(ico &ater treaty. It %as ne'otiate" t!rou'! U(S( an" Mexican sections o# t!e International Boun"ar) an" Water Co&&ission1 a U(S(-Mexico panel create" to a""ress bor"er issues. :.1. 2ommissioner Cd&ard ;rusina said the agreement &ill help authorities in both nations gain insights for future agreements to Obetter manage &ater resources on the 2olorado Biver for decades to come.P US-Mexico a'ree&ents are stu"ie" an" use" as &o"els #or ot!er %ater issues internationall) State o# Cali#ornia 7+13 7ebruary 4F, OC(ecutive .=ce 1ummary,P httpKGG&&&.&aterboards.ca.govGsandiegoGboardLinfoGagendasG24FG7ebGitemQG5temQ Leosr.pdf Se$eral &ont!s %ere spent "isse&inatin' t!e pro/ect:s results to sta*e!ol"ers an" o9cials in an efort to e"ucate t!e& on stor&- in"uce" soli" %aste Ao%s1 res ource &ana'e&ent1 an" soli" %aste &ana'e&ent solutions. Besults &ere presented to %iAuana/s 1ecretary of 5nfrastructure and :rban ;evelopment, ;avid <avarro, and then 1ecretary of 1ocial ;evelopment, Miguel Medrano. 0oth o=cials toured the canyon and the estuary &ith Professor Bomo, and e(pressed inte rest in cooperating in future studies and addressing their @ndi ngs. ProAect results have also been presented to :niversity of 2alifornia 1an ;iego, the %iAuana Biver *alley Becovery %eam, the 1an ;iego Water 0oard, and the 0order 242 %ask 7orce. JDI13 H7 BeBo Lab Water Af !ere are #ourteen pairs o# U( S(-Mexico bor"er cities t!at sufer si&ilar efects o# transbor"er soli" %aste Ao%s #oun" in Los Laureles1 so t!e bene2ts o# str en't!enin' anti-"u&pin' la%s an" en#orce&ent eforts in Mexico coul" be #ar reac!in'( Lessons learne" #ro& t!is researc! can no% be use" to create an international &o"el #or %aste &a na'e&ent in ot!er transbor"er %aters!e"s alon' t!e bor"er( !e US %ill use a'ree&ents %it! Mexico as international &o"els to be pus!e" on ot!er countries Doo& 7+17 8ustin, &riter, O:.1., Me(ico 1ign 7ive-Xear ;eal on 2olorado Biver 7lo&s,P httpKGG&&&.bloomberg.comGne&sG242-44-2Gu-s-me(ico-sign-@ve-year-deal-to- improve-colorado-river->o&s.html !e 3Minute 31G4 pact si'ne" to"a) a&en"s a 1GDD %ater treat) bet%een t!e U(S( an" Mexico in$ol$in' t!e Colora"o1 i/uana an" 8io <ran"e ri$ers t!at inclu"e" a'riculture1 2s!in' an" na$i'ation interests, according to the Paci@c 5nstitute. :.1. 5nterior 1ecretary Qen Sala5ar:s 7+1+ $isit to Mexico to co&plete t!e Minute 31F %ater a'ree&ent le" to t!e current "eal1 according to a government statement. %he @rst of the so- called Minutes, &hich cover land-use and &ater issues bet&een the t&o countries, &as in 4,22. OW!at %e:re "oin' no% in t!e Colora"o 8i$er basin pro$i"es an international &o"el #or !o% to resol$e %ater issues14 Sala5ar sai" today on a conference call. O%ogether &e can ensure to the best of our ability that economies &ill continue to gro& on both sides of the border.P JDI13 H3 BeBo Lab Water Af In"o-;a* Mo"elin' :1 1tate ;epartment discussed &ater management &ith 5ndia and Pakistan =A 17 1timson.org httpKGG&&&.stimson.orgGresearch-pagesGconnecting-the-dropsG 7rom 8une 2E-26, 242, the Sti&son Center !osts a con#erence in Qat!&an"u %it! t!e support o# t!e US State Depart&ent1 brin'in' to'et!er In"ian an" ;a*istani scientists1 a'ricultural econo&ists1 %ater experts1 an" cli&ate-c!an'e &o"elers to "iscuss best %ater &ana'e&ent practices in t!e In"us 8i$er Basin( %he conference is the @rst of t&o to be held in #sia this year. ;articipants i"enti2e" existin' *no%le"'e 'aps bet%een In"ia an" ;a*istan1 an" "iscusse" !o% to increase transparenc) in &ana'in' transboun"ar) %aters t!rou'! increase" "ata-s!arin' on 4" &ater in>o& levels into the basin and 2" climate change impacts on sno&pack- and glacial melt rates in the 5ndus head&ater regions. JDI13 HD BeBo Lab Water Af A#rican States Mo"el Africa Uses US Water Modelling Systems Arnol" et al +I httpKGGssl.tamu.eduGmediaG44EF4GadvancesW2inW2theW2applicationW2ofW2theW2s&atW2model.pdf One suc! &o"el a$ailable #or t!e %ater resources professional is t!eS Soil an" Water Assess&ent ool ?SWA@1 a distributed parameter &o"el "e$elope" b) t!e Unite" States Depart&entS o# A'riculture. %his paper describes some recent advances made in the application of 1W#% and the 1W#%D)51\ interface for &ater resources management. 7our case studies are presented. %he +ydrologic :nit Model for the :nited\ 1tates (+:M:1" proAect used 1W#% to conduct a national- scale analysis of the e3ect of management scenarios on\ &ater $uantity and $uality. 5ntegration of the 1W#% model &ith rainfall data available from the W1B-66; radar\ net&ork helps us to incorporate the spatial variability of rainfall into the modelling process. %his study demonstrates\ the usefulness of radar rainfall data in distributed hydrologic studies and the potential of 1W#% for application in\ >ood analysis and prediction. A !)"rolo'ic &o"ellin' stu") of the 1ondu river basin in Qen)a usin' SWA in"icatesS t!e potential for application of the model in A#rican %aters!e"s and points to the need for development of better\ model input data sets in #frica, &hich are critical for detailed &ater resources studies. !e application o# SWA #orS %ater .ualit) analysis in t!e Bos.ue ri$er basin1 "e&onstrates t!e stren't! o# t!e &o"el for analysing di3erent\ management scenarios to minimi?e point and non-point pollution, and its potential for application in total ma(imum\ daily load (%M;H" studies JDI13 HI BeBo Lab Water Af U , Water Wars Water %ars out%ei'!-&ost li*el) extinction scenario In !ese i&es 7 (44G44, httpKGG&&&.inthesetimes.comGissueG2EG29Gculture4.shtml in !ese i&es is a nonpro@t, independent, national maga?ine published in 2hicago. We/ve been around since 4,QE, @ghting for corporate accountability and progressive government. 5n other &ords, a better &orld cites environmental thinker and activist *andana 1hiva Maude 0arlo& and %ony 2larke'probably <orth #merica/s foremost &ater e(perts %he t&o books provide a chilling, in-depth e(amination of a rapidly emerging global crisis. ORuite simply,P 0arlo& and 2larke &rite, Ounless &e dramatically change our &ays, bet&een one-half and t&o-thirds of humanity &ill be living &ith severe fresh &ater shortages &ithin the ne(t $uarter-century. g %he hard ne&s is thisK +umanity is depleting, diverting and polluting the planet/s fresh &ater resources so $uickly and relentlessly that every species on earth'including our o&n'is in mortal danger.P %he crisis is so great, the three authors agree, that the &orld/s ne(t great &ars &ill be over &ater. %he Middle Cast, parts of #frica, 2hina, Bussia, parts of the :nited 1tates and several other areas are already struggling to e$uitably share &ater resources. Many con>icts over &ater are not even recogni?ed as suchK 1hiva blames the 5sraeli-Palestinian con>ict in part on the severe scarcity of &ater in settlement areas. #s available fresh &ater on the planet decreases, today/s lo&- level con>icts can only increase in intensity Water con>ict are empirically proven <leci* in G httpKGGseedmaga?ine.comGcontentGarticleGtheLtruthLaboutL&aterL&arsG Peter )leick is co-founder and president of the Paci@c 5nstitute in .akland, 2alifornia, and a member of the World Cconomic 7orum )lobal #genda 2ouncil on Water 1ecurity and the :</s C(pert )roup on Policy Belevance of the World Water #ssessment Program. +e is editor of the biennial book %he World/s Water and has recently begun blogging at Water 0y the <umbers. 7ar more important, and far easier to ans&er, is the $uestionK 5s there any connection bet&een fresh &ater and con>ict, including violent con>ictV #nd the ans&er has to be an unambiguous Oyes.P +istory going back 9, years is rife &ith e(amples &here &ater has been a goal of violence, a target or tool of con>ict, or a source of disputes and political strife. .ur Water 2on>ict 2hronology, at &orld&ater.org, lists hundreds of these e(amples. #nd if there is a strong connection bet&een &ater and con>icts, t&o ne& $uestions come upK #re the risks of these con>icts gro&ing, and ho& can &e reduce themV 5 think the ans&er to the @rst is, yes, the risks of &ater-related con>icts appears to be gro&ing. Cli&ate c!an'e increases t!e ris* o# %ater s!orta'e Ca&pana G JDI13 HH BeBo Lab Water Af httpKGGseedmaga?ine.comGcontentGarticleGtheLtruthLaboutL&aterL&arsG Michael C. 2ampana is the director of the 5nstitute for Water and Watersheds and a professor of geosciences at .regon 1tate :niversity. +e maintains the blog WaterWired. %he aforementioned events a3ord some measure of optimism, but &ill the past predict the futureV We face an uncertain and potentially calamitous future. World population is approaching Q billion people. 2limate change and its e3ect on &ater resources loom ominously. Watershed boundaries may change. Water supplies may increase in some areas and decrease in others. #nd since &ater does more than $uench thirst'it gro&s food, maintains ecosystems and @sheries, dilutes &aste, provides recreation, facilitates navigation and trade, and generates po&er'5 can foresee situations &here nations, or even states, cities, or provinces, &age &ar over &ater and the services it provides. JDI13 HO BeBo Lab Water Af Water War Brin* Water %ar %it! Mexico loo&s in Sout!%est Hogan Ca%*es 17, 2C. at Host Planet Media, MhttpKGG&esternfarmpress.comGgovernmentG&ater-&ar-me(ico-looms-south&estM C+7 Worl" lea"ers1 "iplo&ats an" e$en scientists !a$e been %arnin' us #or )ears t!at t!e next <reat War %ill be o$er %ater an" not oil1 a resoun"in' senti&ent ec!oin' across t!e U(S( MMexico bor"er t!is %ee* as "is'runtle" #ar&ers1 politicians an" co&&unit) lea"ers #ro& bot! si"es %orr) about %!ere t!e %ater %ill co&e #ro& to 'ro% t!eir crops t!is )ear( Cars! %or"s !a$e alrea") starte" to A) o$er a recentl) announce" International Boun"ar) an" Water Co&&ission ?IBWC@ plan to release %ater #ro& t!e 8io <ran"e 8i$er to Mexico this month, earlier in the year than usual, a move %e(as and <e& Me(ico irri'ation "istricts sa) %ill cause serious loss o# %ater to e$aporation at a ti&e %!en U(S( #ar&ers are 'oin' to nee" e$er) inc! t!e) can 2n" #ollo%in' last )ear:s "rou'!t( %e(as 2ommission on Cnvironmental Ruality 2ommissioner 2arlos Bubinstein and %e(as #griculture 2ommissioner %odd 1taples are the latest to Aoin the ranks of those opposed to t!e release o# %ater #ro& Elep!ant Butte 8eser$oir in =e% Mexico t!at %ill sen" &illions o# 'allons o# %ater across t!e U(S( bor"er into =ort!ern Mexico %!ere "rou'!t stric*en #ar&ers sa) t!e) "esperatel) nee" t!e resource to reco$er #ro& last )ear:s &e'a "rou'!t. 5n a Aoint letter from 1taples and Bubinstein to 50W2 2ommissioner Cd&ard ;rusina last &eek, they urged that authorities 3act i&&e"iatel) to rescin" t!e "ecision to release t!e %ater because it %ill result in si'ni2cant !ar& to A&erican #ar&ers an" ranc!ers an" X%ill be aY %aste o# %ater "urin' t!is ti&e o# "rou'!t(4 !e Mexican branc! o# t!e IBWC !a" &a"e #or&al re.uest earlier t!is &ont! #or t!e earl) release o# %ater, a provision they say is authori?ed by a 4,!! treaty bet&een the t&o countries that outlines ho& &ater in the &atersheds of both countries is shared. %he :.1. 1ection of the 5nternational 0oundary and Water 2ommission (:150W2", headed by ;rusina, is an o=cial dual government agency under the control of the :.1. 1tate ;epartment and is the :.1. component of the t&o-nation 5nternational 0oundary and Water 2ommission (50W2", &hich applies the boundary and &ater treaties of the :nited 1tates and Me(ico and settles di3erences. %he 2ommission &as formed as a result of the %reaty of 4,!!, established for the utili?ation of &aters of the 2olorado and %iAuana Bivers and of the Bio )rande and to determine ho& that &ater &ould be shared in the international segment of the Bio )rande from 7ort Ruitman, %e(as, to the )ulf of Me(ico. %his treaty also authori?ed the t&o countries to construct operate and maintain dams on the main channel of the Bio )rande. %he 2onvention of May 24, 4,E, provided for the distribution bet&een the :nited 1tates and Me(ico of the &aters of the Bio )rande above 7ort Ruitman, %e(as, for the 6,-mile international boundary reach of the Bio )rande through the Cl Paso-8udre? *alley. %his 2onvention allotted to Me(ico E, acre-feet annually of the &aters of the Bio )rande to be delivered in accordance &ith a monthly schedule at the headgate to Me(icoNs #ce$uia Madre Aust above 8udre?, 2hihuahua. %o facilitate such deliveries, the :nited 1tates constructed, at its e(pense, the Clephant 0utte ;am in its territory. !e Con$ention inclu"es a pro$ision t!at sa)s in case o# extraor"inar) "rou'!t JDI13 HF BeBo Lab Water Af or serious acci"ent to t!e irri'ation s)ste& in t!e Unite" States1 t!e a&ount o# %ater "eli$ere" to t!e Mexican Canal s!all be "i&inis!e" in t!e sa&e proportion as t!e %ater "eli$ere" to lan"s un"er t!e irri'ation s)ste& in t!e Unite" States "o%nstrea& o# Elep!ant Butte Da&( JDI13 HG BeBo Lab Water Af A =o <;W Doesn:t assu&e t!e speci2cit) o# an) o# our scenarios or increase" resource tensions o$er %ater1 o$erpopulation1 an" #oo" %!ic! c!an'es all t!e securit) calculations , t!e &utual in$est&ents an" *e) nature o# t!e re'ion #or a &)ria" resources "ra%s in ot!er po%ers as %ell as re'ional sp!ere o# inAuence co&petition supporte" b) &ultiple pieces o# e$i"ence in t!e 1AC( <reat po%er strate'ic interests cause "eterrence #ailure Brau&oeller 7++F, 0ear 7, O1ystemic Politics and the .rigins of )reat Po&er 2on>ict,P %he #merican Political 1cience Bevie& 42.4 (7eb"K QQ-,F. %his article has introduced a ne& systemic theory of international politics and demonstrated ho&, in combination &ith a dyadic theory of con>ict, it can constitute a useful and plausible t&o-stage theory of con>ict among Curopean )reat Po&ers in the nineteenth century. %he argument at the heart of the theory is straightfor&ardK the <reat ;o%ers atte&pt to &anipulate t!e structure o# t!e international s)ste& in a &anner t!at is &ost con"uci$e to t!e &aintenance o# 'eneral peace ( Because t!eir i"eas re'ar"in' !o% best to "o so "ifer, ho&ever, t!eir atte&pts at i&ple&entin' re'ulator) political re'i&es lea" t!e& to atte&pt to un"er&ine one anot!erKs eforts. !ese atte&pts pro"uce !ostilit) an" brea*"o%ns in 'eneral "eterrence, or onset o# &ilitari5e" interstate "isputes1 bet%een <reat ;o%ers. !e) are &ost li*el) to do so %!en one <reat ;o%er in a !ostile pair, by virtue of its relative inactivity, #ails to "eter t!e ot!er. .f e$ual interest, perhaps, is my conclusion that, in a head-to- head test, deterrence theory outperforms the spiral model as the dyadic half of this synthesis. %his should not be taken as a claim that the spiral model has been falsi@ed- rather, it suggests that deterrence-model con>icts are far more common in this period than are spiral-model con>icts. 7igure F sho&s that con>icts consistent &ith the spiral model do indeed occur, but that they are a clear minority. <reat po%er %ar possible , &iscalculation &a*es "eterrence an" ot!er #actors irrele$ant ;r. Martin C. Cell&an 7++F, OBisk #nalysis of <uclear ;eterrence,P %+C 0C<%, 1PB5<), online 1ome might argue that, because World War 555 &ould be so destructive, no one in his right mind &ould start such a devastating con>ict and there is no need to &orry. 0ut much the same could have been said prior to the @rst World War, demonstrating that in times of crisis &e are often not in our right minds. 5f civili?ation is destroyed in a nuclear holocaust, it is likely to start as World War 5 did'a se$uence of events that spirals out of control. 7ormer 1ecretary of ;efense Bobert Mc<amara sums up &hat he learned from participating in three &orld cri- ses'0erlin in 4,E4, 2uba in 4,E2, and the Mideast &ar of 4,EQ'each of &hich had the potential to go nuclearK O5n no one of the three incidents did either g ]the :.1. or the 1oviet :nion^ intend to act in a &ay that &ould lead to military con>ict, but on each of the occasions lack of information, misinformation, and misAudgments led to confrontation. #nd in each of them, as the crisis evolved, tensions heightened, emotions rose, and the danger of irrational decisions increased.P ]Mc<amara 4,6E, page 4F^ 0ecause the 2uban JDI13 O+ BeBo Lab Water Af missile crisis &as the closest the &orld has come to nuclear &ar, it is &orth&hile studying its evolution. 5n 4,E4, over strenuous 1oviet obAections, #merica started deploying nuclear-armed 8upiter 5B0M/s in %urkey. 7rom our perspective, installing these &eapons made sense. %hey secured <#%./s southern >ank, helped cement relations &ith %urkey, and enhanced our nuclear deterrent. %he Bussians vie&ed these missiles very di3erently. While other factors contributed to Khrushchev/s 4,E2 deployment of similar missiles in 2uba, this disastrous decision started &ith a nuclear version of tit-for-tat as noted by Khrushchev/s speech &riter and advisor, 7yodor 0urlatskyK OKhrushchev and ]1oviet ;efense Minister^ B. Malinovsky g &ere strolling along the 0lack 1ea coast. Malinovsky pointed out to sea and said that on the other shore in %urkey there &as an #merican nuclear-missile base. 5n a matter of si( or seven minutes, missiles launched from that base could devastate maAor centres in the :kraine and southern Bussia. g Khrushchev asked Malinovsky &hy the 1oviet :nion should not have the right to do the same as #merica. Why, for e(ample, should it not deploy missiles in 2ubaVP ]0urlatsky 4,,4, page 4Q4^ .nce the crisis started, it developed a life of its o&n. )eorge 0all, a member of the White +ouse C(2omm9, stated that &hen a group of Kennedy/s advisors met years later OMuch to our o&n surprise, &e reached the unanimous conclusion that, had &e determined our course of action &ithin the @rst !6 hours after the missiles &ere discovered, &e &ould almost certainly have made the &rong decision, responding to the missiles in such a &ay as to re$uire a forceful 1oviet response and thus setting in train a series of reactions and counter-reactions &ith horrendous conse$uences.P ]:ry 4,69, page FQ^ ;ercei$e" bene2ts cause states to 'o to %ar e$en in parit) situations William 8ee" et al 7++F, #ssociate Professor, ;epartment of Political 1cience Bice :niversity, OWar, Po&er, and 0argaining,P May 24, httpKGGsitemason.vanderbilt.eduG@lesGcfyf2CGWarW2Po&erW2andW20argaining W22H#BK.pdf We @nd that the use of ideal points as measures of preferences provides great leverage in the empirical testing of the bargaining model. .ur statistical anal)sis strongly supports t!e !)pot!esis t!at t!e probabilit) o# interstate conAict increases si'ni2cantl) %!en a ")a":s "istribution o# po%er "oes not &atc! %it! t!e "istribution o# bene2ts. .verall, the $uantitative evidence strongly suggests that t!e "istribution o# bene2ts an" t!e "istribution o# po%er /ointl) afect t!e probabilit) o# t!e onset o# a &ilitari5e" interstate "ispute follo&ing the functional form e(plicitly derived from the bargaining model of &ar. %his study provides one possible e(planation for &hy e&pirical e$i"ence !as been #oun" #or bot! po%er prepon"erance an" balance o# po%er t!eor). #s it turns out, eit!er "istribution o# po%er &a) be associate" %it! conAict 1 'i$en a certain "istribution o# bene2ts( JDI13 O1 BeBo Lab Water Af N;ollutionL JDI13 O7 BeBo Lab Water Af 1AC 0uture %ater s!orta'es exacerbate pollution1 #atalities1 an" resource pressure Peolia Water 11 DWorld&ide &ater treatment company Haurent #uguste (President b 2C." D White paper for %he Water 5mpact 5nde( and the 7irst 2arbon-Water #nalysis of a MaAor Metropolitan Water 2ycle. #re concerns about fresh&ater resources overblo&nV #re these matters for people far removed from our respective safe havens, especially for those located on lakes and river&aysV <ot &hen considering the CP# has already cited FE states in the :1# as facing &ater shortages and that industrial companies and investors are placing &ater risks on top of their list of strategic issues to address. 5n the developing &orld &here infrastructure is lacking, close to 4 billion people do not have proper access to healthful &ater, and 2.E billion people are &ithout sanitation systems. %his triggers an incredible storm of health issues and &ater-borne fatalities, not to mention fresh&ater pollution and &ater resource pressure. #t the same time, leakage rates in distribution net&orks in developed countries can e(ceed 9W, &hile the lack of proper maintenance of &aste&ater and storm&ater collection net&orks leads to gro&ing pollution.6W of all childhood deaths and illnesses in developing countries are directly or indirectly caused by lack of proper access to &ater or sanitation.0y 29, Q9W of the &orld/s population &ill live in cities, increasing pressure on already strained &ater resources. )lobal demand for &ater &ill increase by !W in Aust 2 years D and is proAected to double in rapidly developing countries. QW of today/s &ater &ithdra&als are used in agriculture. Population gro&th &ill lead to further signi@cant &ithdra&als for agriculture, &hile fertili?ing practices, if inappropriately managed, lead to an increasing source of &ater pollution a3ecting ground and surface &ater fresh resources. Collapse o# Mexican %ater supplies "estro)s t!eir a'ricultural sector an" econo&)( 8osenber' R orres Z17 Mica A "oe, GStubborn rought e2pecte to ta2 Me2ico $or yearsH httpIJJ666.reuters.co!JarticleJ-8.-J8FJ-.Jus-!e2ico-rought-iUS0%'*-C.'+-8.-8F-. March -. A se$ere "rou'!t in Mexico that !as cost farmers &ore t!an a billion "ollars in crop losses alone an" set back the national cattle herd for years, is /ust a #oretaste o# t!e "rier #utureX(Y facing Latin A&ericaKs secon" lar'est econo&). #s &ater tankers race across northern Me(ico to reach far->ung to&ns, and crops &ither in the @elds, the government !as allotte" 3D billion pesos ?W7(HI billion@ in e&er'enc) ai" to confront the &orst drought ever recorded in the country. !e %ater s!orta'e &iped out millions of acres of farmland this &inter, cause" 1I billion pesos ?W1(1F billion@ in lost !ar$ests1 *ille" H+1+++ !ea" o# cattle an" %ea*ene" 7 &illion &ore li$estoc*, pushing food prices higher in Me(ico. %he overall cost to the economy is still being gauged but Me(icoNs drought-stung &inter has been evolving for years and is e(pected to &orsen as the e3ect of global climate change takes hold, according to the government. S;roughts are cyclical - &e kno& that - but they are gro&ing more fre$uent and severe due to climate change,S said Clvira Ruesada, the Minister for the Cnvironment and <atural Besources. Accor"in' to Me(icoNs AMSDA agricultural association, poor %eat!er "estro)e" so&e O(I &illion acres (F million hectares" o# culti$able lan" in 7+11 - an area about the si?e of 0elgium. %he federal agriculture ministry puts the @gure at about half that. %hat helped push Me(icoNs food imports up F9 percent last year, a trend likely to persist through the 242-4F crop cycle. JDI13 O3 BeBo Lab Water Af S%here &as talk of drought &hen 5 got here si(teen years ago,S said 5gnacio 0ecerra, a priest &orking in the rugged to&n of 2arichi in 2hihuahua state, &hich has su3ered massive &ater shortages. S%his year, not even corn or beans came up.S SWatering holes that never ran dry are empty. Without rain this situation is going to get even more serious,S he said. Zacatecas state, the countryNs main bean producer, harvested only a $uarter of the usual crop after months &ithout rain. #griculture Minister 7ransisco Mayorga said this &eek that Me(ico &ill produce 24.6 million tonnes of corn in 242 after a sharp drop in production in 244 to 4,.2 million tonnes due to the drought. %he country may have to import &hite corn - used to make staple corn tortillas - on top of yello& corn imports from the :nited 1tates for animal feed. %he &ater shortage has forced Me(ican farmers to cut back cattle herds as pasture lands dry out and increased the risk of &ild@res, &hich ravaged northern Me(ico and the southern :nited 1tates last spring. accepting a !ry future Mexican ;resi"ent 7elipe Cal"eron, an outspoken advocate for mitigating and adapting to climate change, has or"ere" !is 'o$ern&ent to start 'ettin' rea") #or tou'!er ti&es( Experts belie$e Mexico %ill !a$e to spen" billions o# "ollars in t!e next t%o "eca"es to &aintain t!e %ater suppl) #or irri'ation an" "rin*in' %ater( Water authority 2onagua says it &ust in$est o$er 3++ billion pesos ?W73(HF billion@ b) 7+3+ to sa#e'uar" an" &o"erni5e in#rastructure b) sealin' lea*) pipes1 expan"in' reser$oirs an" e$en rec)clin' !ouse!ol" %aste %ater( #s policymakers plot their response to climate change, Me(icans must simply come to grip &ith years of little rain - and higher food bills for staples like beef. ;arrell +argrove, o&ner of farming and trucking @rm 1outh&est Hivestock in ;el Bio, %e(as, said the price of Me(ican cattle for e(port to the :nited 1tates had Aumped by about a third over the last month and a half. Bising :.1. demand and shrinking herds in Me(ico and north of the border raised the basic price for a F lb head of cattle to about `2 per lb from `4.9 since 7ebruary, he said. SWe have the lo&est cattle herd count here that &eNve had since about 4,9,S +argrove said. %otal livestock prices in Me(ico &ere up by some 42.9 percent on the year in 7ebruary, o=cial data sho&s. 2attle ranchers in 2hihuahua are &atching their herds &ither from malnutrition and say sick co&s &ill have trouble reproducing, causing losses that could take a decade to recover. foo! shortages %he human cost has also been harsh. %he government said it provided food rations to more than t&o million people, though agricultural group #M1;# said F &illion people !a" been afecte" b) t!e lac* o# %ater( More t!an D++1+++ resi"ents in t!e six "riest states %ere %it!out %ater at t!e en" o# Dece&ber, 2onagua said, &ith reser$oirs in t%o states !al#-e&pt) an" anot!er t%o less t!an a .uarter #ull. !e in"i'enous ara!u&ara people o# nort!ern Mexico sufere" particularl) !ar"1 %it! tens o# t!ousan"s o# poor #a&ilies !it( %he government says it delivered millions of liters of milk and tonnes of food, but the situation is acute. S%his year the %arahumaras have not been able to harvest corn or beans, &hich is the basis of their livelihood,S said local priest 0ecerra. S#nd the &orst is yet to come - #pril, May, 8une, 8uly are the driest, hottest months ... &hich &ill make the situation much more serious and comple(.S De#orestation %orsene" con"itions #or in"i'enous people aroun" t!e copper can)on in C!i!ua!ua an" &an) !a$e le#t #or cities to escape po$ert) an" !un'er.SWeNre at the point of no return. %he northern part of the country is drying out. 5f the rains donNt come, the situation is going to be &orse than serious. 5t &ill be a disaster,S he said. While rain-starved communities pray for a do&npour that &ould replenish &ells and reservoirs, e(perts say the northern half of Me(ico is in a persistent dry cycle. S%he current drought &as probably unfolding 2 years ago,S said 7ernando Miralles-Wilhelm, a hydrologist &ith the 5nter-#merican ;evelopment 0ank (5#;0".S%hese dynamics are going to continue for the ne(t fe& decades.S %he 5#;0, &hich &orks in Hatin #merica and the 2aribbean, promises `4 out of every `! it lends over the ne(t three years &ill go to conservation as &ell as adapting and mitigating climate change. %he bank lent nearly `44 billion last year. # >eet of several thousands trailers is making round-the-clock trips in a race to get clean &ater to remote communities, but it may not be enough if the drought &ears on. 1ummer rains typically break the &inter dry spell but 2onagua e(pects March rainfall to be half of normal years and it does not see a break to the crisis before 8uly. Mexican econo&ic collapse collapses t!e US econo&) an" causes cartel ta*eo$er o# t!e bor"erlan"s 2.+# Besearch #ssociate Cd&ard W. Little2el" +G, 2.+# is an <). speciali?ed in monitoring Hatin #merican and 2anadian Belations. JhttpKGG&&&.coha.orgGas- JDI13 OD BeBo Lab Water Af me(icoWC2W6W,,s-problems-mount-the-impact-of-the-economic-recession-on- migration-patterns-from-me(icoGM C+7 Cars! econo&ic con"itions on bot! si"es o# t!e bor"er also pro&ise to lea$e the 44.6 million Me(icans, or 1+ percent o# t!e Mexican population1 li$in' in t!e Unite" States an" t!eir sout!ern "epen"ents in "esperate situations( 5n general, +ispanic unemployment in the :nited 1tates rose from 9.4 percent in 2Q to 6. percent in 26. +ispanic immigrants are heavily concentrated in the industries left most vulnerable by current conditions, such as construction, manufacturing, leisure and hospitality, and support and personal services. #mericans/ increased concern &ith Aob availability during the crisis further limits the economic livelihoods of migrants and their families. %he remittance >o&s of other 2entral #merican states &ith large migrant populations in the :nited 1tates, such as Cl 1alvador, )uatemala, and +onduras, are not e(pected to be as severely e3ected as those of Me(ico. Many of these immigrants are granted temporary protected status under special arrangements &ith the :nited 1tates, making their countries less vulnerable than Me(ico to northern political, legal, and economic >uctuations. %he fact that the :nited 1tates and Me(ico constitute, according to the World 0ank, the Olargest immigration corridor in the &orldP further illustrates the profound e3ect the decrease in migration and remittances may have on both sides of the border. Cvidently, through migration, remittances, and <#7%#- induced trade integration, t!e Mexican econo&) !as beco&e increasin'l) "epen"ent upon t!at o# t!e Unite" States1 &a*in' t!e #or&er extre&el) $ulnerable to t!e efects o# t!e current 2nancial crisis( %he decrease in migration >o&s and remittances is thus implicit in the current debate about Me(ico/s descent into being a Ofailed state.P A Mexican econo&ic collapse1 spurre" b) a "ecrease in t!e &i'rants an" re&ittances upon %!ic! t!e countr): s econo&) is reliant1 %oul" %ea*en t!e state:s capacit) to 2nance counter-narcotics acti$it)1 increase pa)-rolls to pre$ent political an" &ilitar) o9cials #ro& corruption relate" to "ru' tra9c*in'1 recuperate t!e "epresse" econo&)1 an" *eep t!eir best an" bri'!test at !o&e( !ese series o# "e$elop&ents %oul" !a$e a ne'ati$e conse.uence #or t!e Unite" States econo&) an" t!e Oba&a a"&inistration1 as %ell( Mexico is t!e Unite" States: t!ir" lar'est export &ar*et1 an" t!e c!eap labor t!at Mexican i&&i'rants pro$i"e1 alt!ou'! not nearl) as co$ete" 'i$en t!e current recession1 is an i&portant part o# t!e national econo&)( A""itionall)1 Mexico:s potential econo&ic an" &ilitar) collapse "eser$es to be $ie%e" as a national securit) t!reat to t!e U(S(1 'i$en t!e sprea" o# "ru'-relate" $iolence to bor"er states suc! as Ari5ona1 %!ere aut!orities bla&e a rise in !o&e in$asions an" *i"nappin's on or'ani5e" cri&e #ro& sout! o# t!e bor"er( JDI13 OI BeBo Lab Water Af Mex Econ Q7 Dru' War Mexican econo&ic 'ro%t! is *e) %eapon in "ru' %ar 2atherine C. S!oic!et 17, Hatin #merica <e&s ;esk Cditor at 2<<, graduate of +arvard :niversity. JhttpKGG&&&.cnn.comG242G44G2QGpoliticsGme(ico-president- intervie&M C+7 Creatin' &ore econo&ic opportunities %ill be MexicoKs 'reatest %eapon in t!e %ar on "ru's, the countryNs president-elect said %uesday. S%hat, 5 think, is going to be the best &ay my government can prevent organi?ed crime,S President- elect Cnri$ue Pena <ieto told 2<<Ns Wolf 0lit?er. Wit!out /obs an" social pro'ra&s1 !e sai"1 J&illions o# &) countr)&en !a$e no ot!er option t!an to "e"icate t!e&sel$es so&eti&es to cri&inal acti$it).S %he &ide-ranging intervie& &as recorded Aust a fe& hours before the incoming leader met &ith :.1. President 0arack .bama in Washington. 5n his @rst meeting &ith .bama, Pena =ieto sai" !e planne" to #ocus on buil"in' trust an" boostin' econo&ic ties to create /obs. Me(ican leader eyes economic ties &ith :.1. SWeNve lost presence and competitiveness on the international market. ... %hereNs still space, an opportunity, to achieve greater integration as far as productivity, &hich &ill allo& us to improve the competitive conditions for creating Aobs across <orth #merica,S he said. Pena <ieto, !E, said his security strategy &ill focus on reducing the "ru'- relate" $iolence that too* H+1+++ li$es "urin' !is pre"ecessorKs six-)ear ter&, though he provided fe& speci@cs about ho& he &ould stem the violence or &hat aspects of outgoing President 7elipe 2aderonNs strategy he &ill change. SWe %ill *eep the policies that 5 think &ork,S he said, Sincluding cooperation %it! t!e Unite" States to efecti$el) 2'!t or'ani5e" cri&e(J JDI13 OH BeBo Lab Water Af Water Suppl) Brin* An" usable supplies are on t!e brin* , Mexico is runnin' out o# %ater ;ina Z11 /atricia G#ressing Water Crisis in Me2ico CityI a /olitical an >nstitutional /erspectiveH httpIJJ6atersecurityinitiative.seas.harvar.euJsitesJe$aultJ$ilesJ/atriciaK-8/>"#K-8SY/#K-8on K-8Me2icoK-8CityK-8WaterL8.p$ March Me2ico City Metropolitan #rea 7MCM#;, a.4.a. Greater Me2ico City, is the thir biggest !etropolitan area in the 6orl, 6ith !ore than -8 !illion inhabitants 7-881;. >ts relentless urbani&ation rate, having <uaruple its population in the last =+ years as sho6n in $igure -, has resulte in a city con$iguration that covers Me2ico City 7a.4.a. Feeral Bistrict; an part o$ the a@acent states o$ Me2ico an 5ialgo. /opulation gro6th in MCM# 7thousans o$ habitants; >n -881, the Feeral Bistrict accounte $or about 1 !illion people 6hereas the rest o$ the habitants o$ the city live pri!arily in the State o$ Me2ico. #s a result o$ the urbani&ation pattern, MCM# is currently con$or!e by !ultiple political an a!inistrative entities, 6hich are groupe in three !ain boiesI Feeral Bistrict an its .9 boroughs, +1 peripheral urban !unicipalities that belong to the State o$ Me2ico, an a !unicipality o$ the State o$ 5ialgo. >n this SY/# 6e o not iscuss the situation in the State o$ 5ialgo that belongs to the MCM# ue to its li!ite relevance 7it is only one !unicipality;, instea 6e $ocus on the proble!s in the Feeral Bistrict an the State o$ Me2ico. Water situation in Greater Mexico City is dramatic: limited supply of surface water, quality of water in aquifers threatened due to the lack of wastewater treatment and insufficient control over hazardous wastes, and largescale land su!sidence due to the over exploitation of aquifers and soil compression" (his city is an e2a!ple o$ uncontrolle urban e2pansion an environ!ental eterioration: !any e2perts preict that the region is reaching not only its ecological li!its, but also its technological an social li!its Greater Mexico City receives approximately #$% of its water from groundwater" "atural springs an su!!er rains $ro! the sierras an !ountains are the !ain source o$ 6ater to the a<ui$er. &owever, toay more water is leaving the system than entering it" (he !ain a<ui$er, Me2ico Valley a<ui$er, is being pu!pe at a rate o$ =+-+= !Js, but natural recharge 6ater is only about -8!Js about =+K o$ the 6ater use in Greater Me2ico City is supplie by over-e2ploiting the a<ui$er. #l!ost *+K o$ the e!an in the Feeral Bistrict an the State o$ Me2ico is urban or o!estic e!an. >nustrial use accounts only $or about -K o$ the total an agriculture is responsible $or the rest o$ the 6ater use: ho6ever, agricultural use is !ore relevant in the State o$ Me2ico an it is pri!arily riven by areas that are not consiere to be part o$ Greater Me2ico City. # i$$erent representation o$ the stress level that the natural resources supplying 6ater to Greater Me2ico City currently su$$er. >n -88*, in the Valley o$ Me2ico, 6hich co!prises the Feeral Bistrict, the !unicipalities o$ the State o$ Me2ico that belong to Greater Me2ico City, an a part o$ the State o$ 5ialgo, 6ater abstractions 6ere e<uivalent to .*-K the sustainable e2traction rate establishe by the natural recharge rate. Stress level on 6ater resources in Greater Me2ico City Many o$ these proble!s have a technical origin an re<uire a technical solution: ho6ever, the institutional an political $ra!e6or4 in Me2ico can also be an obstacle to resolve these proble!s, co!plicating long-ter! ecision-!a4ing an creating an obstacle $or strategic planning. #s "orth escribes, Gthe institutional $ra!e6or4 is a co!posite o$ rules, in$or!al constraints, an their en$orce!ents characteristics MNO (hey are the rules o$ the ga!e an there$ore e$ine the 6ay the ga!e is playe.H >n Greater Me2ico City, the rules $or 6ater !anage!ent are establishe at the $eeral, regional, an local level. >nstitutional $rag!entation is a !a@or challengeI ecisions epen on the Feeral Govern!ent, the govern!ent o$ Feeral Bistrict an its .9 boroughs, the !unicipalities o$ the States o$ Me2ico an 5ialgo P each 6ith an inepenently electe representative P an the private sector co!panies involve in service provision. For!ally, the roles an the responsibilities o$ each party are e$ine: ho6ever, in practice, these responsibilities are o$ten not clear an overlap 6ith each other. #s an e2a!ple, an esti!ate '$% of the total water supplied to the Greater Me2ico City is lost through leaks in the water distri!ution systems and through ineffective coordination policies !etween the various levels of government" >n aition to the institutional $ra!e6or4, the political conte2t o$ Me2ico can be another source o$ ine$$iciencies $or 6ater !anage!ent. Me2ican local govern!ents have been characteri&e by clientelis! an patronage net6or4s. (hus, 6ater in Me2ico is o$ten consiere as a resource to e2ercise political po6er an the political parties try to e2ploit it to their o6n bene$it. (he political i!ension an po6er asy!!etries in the use o$ 6ater are 4ey ele!ents to unerstan regional interactions an ecision- !a4ing in ter!s o$ access, e2ploitation an control o$ 6ater. #s iscusse in the previous section, Greater Mexico City uses more water than 6hat can be sustainably supplied" Water scarcit) an" .ualit) are 'ro%in' proble&s t!at are reac!in' crisis con"itions( CSIS1 3 httpKGGcsis.orgG@lesGmediaGcsisGpubsGbinationalLcouncil.pdf #lthough the highly publici?ed &ater dispute bet&een the :nited 1tates and Me(ico has focused attention in both nations on the issue, the need to address comprehensively the problem of &ater scarcity and &ater $uality is not one that is limited to the :.1.-Me(ico border region. 5n fact, &ater scarcity is increasing around the &orld and approaching crisis conditions in many regions. 5t is a phenomenon that is impacting the lives of a gro&ing number of the &orld/s people. #ccording to the :nited <ations, F4 countries in the &orld are currently facing &ater stress and JDI13 OO BeBo Lab Water Af scarcity. .ver 4 billion people have no access to clean drinking &ater, and almost F billion people have no access to sanitation services. 5t is estimated that today 4EE million people in 46 countries su3er from &ater scarcity, &hile another 2Q million in 44 additional countries are considered O&ater stressed.P 0y the year 229, the &orld/s population &ill have increased by more than 2.E billion, but as many as t&o- thirds of those people &ill be living in conditions of serious &ater shortage, and one- third &ill be living &ith absolute &ater scarcity. 0y 229, the a3ected populations &ill increase to about F billion people, or about ! percent of the &orld/s population, most of them in the poorest countries. #s a result of this daunting diagnosis, there is no& a consensus that the severity of the problem re$uires a strategic approach that emphasi?es e$uitable and sustainable management of &ater resources. JDI13 OF BeBo Lab Water Af ;ollution Brin* Water on t!e bor"er is extre&el) pollute" )eorge 0. 0ris$ol"a and Margriet 7 Cas%el :11 %ransboundary &ater management )ame-theoretic lessons for proAects on the :1-Me(ico border- &&&.elsevier.comGlocateGageco !e bor"er:s &ost serious public !ealt! proble& is lac* o# access to sa#e "rin*in' %ater an" se%a'e treat&ent( Man) people on bot! si"es o# t!e bor"er lac* access to potable %ater an" connections to se%er s)ste&s. 8ohnstone notes that OJuare51 a cit) o# o$er 1(I &illion "oes not !a$e an) treat&ent #acilities %!atsoe$er (p. !!"P. 5n exas an" =e% Mexico1 o$er D++ +++ people li$e in colonias - lo& income, unincorporated subdivisions typically lac*in' electricit)1 pa$e" roa"s1 potable %ater1 or se%a'e treat&ent :ntreated se&age is a maAor transboundary e(ternality, as pollute" %ater Ao%s nort!%ar" #ro& Mexican to A&erican cities( !e cit) o# =ue$o Lare"o "eposits 7D &illion 'allons per "a) (mgd@ o# ra% se%a'e into t!e 8io <ran"e In i/uana1 o$er 1+ &'" o# untreate" se%a'e1 co&bine" %it! in"ustrial %aste1 Ao% into t!e i/uana 8i$er and 1an ;iego (8ohnstone,- 50W2,- Minute 26F". 7lo&s of se&age into the ocean have led to fre$uent beach closures in 1an ;iego ()anster,". %he <e& Biver - >o&ing north from the Me(i- 2ali *alley, through the 5mperial *alley, and into the 1alton 1ea has the dubious distinction of being one of the most polluted rivers in the :nited 1tates (Kishel,- 8ohnstone,- )anster,". %he <ogales Wash, a tributary of the 1anta 2ru? Biver, >o&s through <ogales, 1onora and #ri?ona. ;uring summer rains, ra& se&age >o&s into the Wash and through neighborhoods on bot! si"es o# t!e bor"er ?In'ra& an" W!ite1B Para") et al(1@( <iar"ia an" cr)ptospori"iu& !a$e been "etecte" in t!e Was! an" t!e a.ui#er ser$in' as t!e pri&ar) %ater source #or bot! cities (*arady and Mack,". JDI13 OG BeBo Lab Water Af Waste Water Mis&ana'e" Current %aste%ater treat&ent &ec!anis&s are not properl) &ana'e"1 accor"in' to stu") on t!e 8[o <ran"e basin Ban"ala1 S\nc!e5-Salas R Li 17 (Crick, 8ose, Rilin S%he Bole of %echnology on 1afe ;rinking Water Production and its Belationship &ith Public 1afety in the :.1.- Me(ico 0order BegionS Puentes 2onsortium httpKGG&&&.puentesconsortium.orgGesGsystemG@lesG1afeL;rinkingLWaterL%echnologyL andL:1-Me(icoLPublicL1afety.pdf" #s sho&n in %able 2, &ater $uality varies along the river. 1ome previous reports dealing &ith the &ater $uality in the Bao 0ravoGBao )rande basin have noted the signi@cant impact of dissolved solids related to anthropogenic activities along the stream (Phillip and Michelsen 244". %hese authors have found that salinity is the main &ater $uality issue along the basin capable of impacting both potable and agriculture irrigation &ater supply (see 7igure 2". 5t is interesting to observe in 7igure 2 that the concentration of total dissolved solids (%;1" becomes higher as one moves do&nstream. %he data analy?ed for this paper sho&s also this trend'but it does not, in general, apply to the other parameters included in %able 2, probably due to the settling e3ect occurring at the di3erent dams built along the stream. %he data in %able 2 sho&s a high average concentration of fecal coliforms at most of the sampling sites. %he presence of these pathogenic microorganisms is related to untreated or poorly treated &aste&ater discharges from &aste&ater treatment facilities, malfunctioning septic systems, andGor cattle &astes that are not properly managed along the river or its tributaries, and may be the source for &aterborne diseases if &ater is not properly treated before human consumption. It is possible to re$itali5e %aste%ater plants into sustainable ecos)ste&s #or co&&unities ;ostel 13 (1andra, director of )lobal Water Policy ProAect S.nce a 1melly <uisance, Me(icaliNs Waste&ater <o& 0rings Hife to the 2olorado ;eltaS <ational )eographic 9-, httpKGGne&s&atch.nationalgeographic.comG24FG9G,Gonce-a-smelly-nuisance- me(icalis-&aste&ater-no&-brings-life-to-the-colorado-deltaG" 5f there is one place that transforms &aste&ater from trouble-maker to life-saver it/s the site of Has #renitas se&age treatment plant in the Me(ican state of 0aAa 2alifornia. %here, nasty urban &aste&ater that once made a smelly health ha?ard of the <e& Biver near the :.1.-Me(ico border is no& sustaining a &ondrous &etland and bird-&atchers/ paradise in the north&est corner of the 2olorado Biver ;elta. 5n this &ay, Has #renitas Aoins Ha 2ijnega de 1anta 2lara D the Oaccidental &etlandP D in sho&casing the revival possible by adding &ater to the once-verdant, but no& desiccated delta. Hocated about 4E miles (2E kilometers" southeast of the border city of Me(icali, Has #renitas at @rst glance looks like any municipal &aste&ater treatment plant. # big underground pipeline daily delivers nearly 2 million gallons of Me(icali/s se&age, &hich then undergoes conventional physical, biological, and chlorination processes to remove bacteria and other harmful pollutants. JDI13 F+ BeBo Lab Water Af NWil"2resL ;roper co&&unication an" in#or&ation s!arin' is *e) to pre$entin' %il"2res Margaret Wil"er et al( 131 #ssociate Professor, 2enter for Hatin #merican 1tudies, )regg )ar@n (:niversity of #ri?ona", Paul )anster (5nstitute for Begional 1tudies of the 2alifornias, 1an ;iego 1tate :niversity", +allie Cakin (#ri?ona 1tate :niversity", Patricia Bomero-Hankao (<2#B", 7rancisco Hara-*alencia (#ri?ona 1tate :niversity", #lfonso #. 2orte?-Hara (2olegio de la 7rontera <orte", 1tephen Mumme (2olorado 1tate :niversity", 2arolina <eri (<ational #utonomous :niversity of Me(ico", 7rancisco MuIo?-#rriola (1cripps 5nstitution of .ceanography" Cliate Change an! U"S"-#e$ico %or!er Counities page F94 JhttpKGGs&carr.ari?ona.eduGsitesGdefaultG@lesG#221W:1L2h4E.pdfM Cli&atic #actors inclu"in' !i'!er a$era'e te&peratures since t!e 1GO+s an" exten-S si$e "rou'!ts !a$e contribute" to con"itions #or increase" %il"2re, as have land-use\ changes and @re-suppression strategies (Williams et al. 24". %he seasonality of tem-\ perature and precipitation changes is especially critical- !i'!er te&peratures1 earlierS sprin' %ar&in'1 an" "ecrease" sur#ace %ater contribute to an increase in %il"2resS (Mac;onald 24". ;rought-related bark beetle damage has had devastating e3ects on\ 1outh&est forests. O$erall1 Willia&s an" collea'ues ?7+1+@ esti&ate t!at approxi&atel)S 7(O] o# Sout!%estern #orest an" %oo"lan" area experience" substantial &ortalit) "ueS to %il"2res #ro& 1GFD to 7++H1 and appro(imately Q.EW e(perienced mortality due to\ bark beetles or &ild@re during this period.\ Wil"2re an" lan"-use &ana'e&ent pla) a lar'e role in controllin' t!e outbrea* o#S %il"2res1 an" cli&ate in#or&ation s!oul" be an i&portant aspect o# t!e plannin' process(S C(pected climatic changes &ill alter future forest productivity, disturbance regimes, and\ species ranges throughout the 1outh&est (Williams et al. 24". Peak @re-suppression\ periods vary from region to region, &ith important implications for decision making\ around &ild@re (2orringham, Westerling, and Morehouse 26- Westerling et al. 244".\ While @re managers in the 1outh&est :nited 1tates are integrating short-term &eath-\ er and climate information into their planning, long-term forecasts are less utili?ed due\ to a perceived lack of reliability (2orringham, Westerling, and Morehouse 26". rans-S bor"er e&er'enc) response to %il"2res is anot!er critical ele&ent o# efecti$e &ana'e-S &ent( E$ents suc! as %il"2res J"o not respect a"&inistrati$e boun"ariesJ ?<=EB 7++F1S 7@( rans-bor"er co&&unication- s!arin' an" response s)ste&s ?as appropriate@ can a""S to re'ional resilience an" i&pro$e #orest sustainabilit)( JDI13 F1 BeBo Lab Water Af NNCase oolboxLL JDI13 F7 BeBo Lab Water Af NIn!erenc)L JDI13 F3 BeBo Lab Water Af In!erenc) , 0un"in' IBWC %ater &ana'e&ent issues "ue to unco&plete" pro/ects an" un"er#un"in' 2armen Ma'an"a 17, 2oordinator of the 0i-national 0order Water ProAect for the 2enter for :.1.-Me(ican 1tudies at the :niversity of 2alifornia, 8ournal of Political Ccology, *ol. 4,, pages 6E-6Q JhttpKGGApe.library.ari?ona.eduGvolumeL4,GMaganda.pdfM C+7 %he cultural problems of &ater management along the Me(ico-:1 border are primarily related to citi?en activity. 5n fact, bi-national cooperation in civil society surrounding &ater issues e(ists (1abet 22", and so the main cultural di=culties in the region are directly tied to multi-level governance and the aforementioned Sborderless &orld.S 5n terms the @rst sphere of border studies, it is interesting to note that many management decisions are signi@cantly a3ected by institutional norms. 1ince the inception of the 50W2G25H#, this 2ommissionNs authority has faced one maAor limitationK it can only act in $uestions that directly a3ect the international boundary that separates Me(ico from the :1 (Mumme and 0ro&n 22". %hus, like o=cials in many supranational institutions (+i( 4,,,", the members of the 2ommission have been signi@cantly in>uenced by institutional norms pushing integration in order to increase its sphere of in>uence. %his is absolutely necessary from the 2ommissionNs point of vie& because its &ork has recently been critici?ed as anti$uated due to its limited po&ers. 5n fact, many of its proAects and suggestions have not been follo&ed by local border authorities or @nanced by the national governments. Moreover, it has been critici?ed for being slo& and overly bureaucratic. Maganda 0order &ater culture 8ournal of Political Ccology *ol. 4,, 242 6Q 5t is important to note the formal and informal dimensions of border &ater politics along the Me(ico:1 divide. %he 4,!! %reaty does not address numerous important $uestions, such as the promotion of environmental values, the domestic distribution and urban consumption of &ater, agricultural uses of &ater and protection for border communities from >oods and droughts. 7or this reason, &ater management has been traditionally characteri?ed by informal agreements bet&een local o=cials that addressed the needs of communities on both sides of the border. Many observers attributed such cooperation to the e(istence of shared norms in border communities concerning the need to ma(imi?e the sustainability of &ater resources (0ennett 4,,9- Michel 2". %he notion of culture undergirding this interpretation is tied to trust, shared values, and community, and local o=cials cooperated across borders in order to ma(imi?e &ater e=ciency. 7ollo&ing this argument, then, one could state that the recent decision to pave the #ll-#merican 2anal and to prevent ground&ater from seeping into Me(ico signi@es a breakdo&n of the border &ater culture in 1outhern 2alifornia, because it demonstrates self- interested behavior. 5s this actually the caseV 0y e(amining this speci@c case, &hich concerns the bi-national 2olorado Biver 0asin, 5 argue that the behavior of local &ater authorities does not demonstrate a cultural breakdo&n. Bather it is a reinforcement of institutional norms through the creation of a Sborderless &orld.S #s leaders &ork to e(pand globali?ed urban economies, they pursue the &ater resources necessary to achieve their goals. Whereas the regional economies that characteri?ed the Me(ico-:1 border facilitated cooperation in &ater management, the economic e(pansion promoted by the <orth #merican 7ree %rade #greement JDI13 FD BeBo Lab Water Af (<#7%#" broke economic partnerships &hich created less incentive for collaboration in the @eld of &ater distribution. JDI13 FI BeBo Lab Water Af In!erenc) , =o Data S!arin' =o "ata s!arin' an" bu"'et cuts #or "ata collection no% , #un"in' *e) to binational cooperation( Wil"er et al in 17 (Margaret, Jeremy Slac5, Rober Varady, Christopher Scott, Andrea Prichard, *arabara Moreho$se, mily McGo!ern, 6scar #ai, Rachel *eaty" 7oint pro7ect by the %dall Center for St$dies in P$blic Policy % of Ari&ona" )%rban 8ater V$lnerability and (nstit$tional Challenges in Ambos Nogales,/ Moving Forward from Vulnerability to Adaptation: Climate Change, Drought, and ater Demand in the !rbani"ing #outhwestern !nited #tates and $orthern Me%ico" http+99$dallcenter,ari&ona,ed$9sarp9pdf9Ch:;AmbosNogales,pdf3 Water resource plannin' alon' t!e U(S(-Mexican bor"er !as historically pro$en c!allen'in'. %he border region represents an intersection of varying levels of local, state, and federal po&er and responsibilities. Lac* o# a"e.uate 2nancial resources an" insu9cient 'o$ern&ent co&&it&ent on both sides to resol$e %ater an" en$iron&ent issues in #mbos <ogales !a&per efecti$e &ana'e&ent( Bu"'et cuts !a$e re"uce" &ana'e&ent resources #or i&portant &ana'e&ent a'encies li*e t!e E;A:s ?binational@ Bor"er 7+17 an" t!e ADW8( 0ecause #mbos <ogales shares an a$uifer (Milman and 1cott 24", &ater and &aste&ater management re$uires binational cooperation and coordination. !e success o# this binational cooperation "epen"s on the follo&ingK a clear articulation o# t!e rele$ant scienti2c in#or&ation to decision-makers- a high level of local participation- t!e 2nancial an" tec!nical support o# binational environmental or'ani5ationsB an"1 efecti$e 'o$ern&ental polic) t!at pro$i"es t!e le'al #ra&e%or* #or e9cient resource &ana'e&ent. JDI13 FH BeBo Lab Water Af In!erenc) , =o Cooperation =o binational cooperation no% , t!e US an" Mexico execute plans %it!out consultati$e #ra&e%or*s %!ic! "isrupts eac! ot!er:s %ater policies( Margaret Wil"er et al( 13, #ssociate /ro$essor, Center $or Latin #!erican Stuies, Gregg Gar$in 7University o$ #ri&ona;, /aul Ganster 7>nstitute $or %egional Stuies o$ the Cali$ornias, San Biego State University;, 5allie 'a4in 7#ri&ona State University;, /atricia %o!ero-Lan4ao 7"C#%;, Francisco Lara-Valencia 7#ri&ona State University;, #l$onso #. Corte&-Lara 7Colegio e la Frontera "orte;, Stephen Mu!!e 7Colorao State University;, Carolina "eri 7"ational #utono!ous University o$ Me2ico;, Francisco MuQo&-#rriola 7Scripps >nstitution o$ Rceanography; Climate Change and U.S.-Mexico Border Communities page F+8 ShttpIJJs6carr.ari&ona.euJsitesJe$aultJ$ilesJ#CCSWUSLCh.9.p$T '5F (ransbounary cooperation to aress the i!pacts o$ cli!ate variability an cli!ate change is essential to pro!oting the best outco!es an to builing regional aaptive capacity on both sies o$ the borer. Bespite $or!al agree!ents bet6een the Unite States an Me2ico to cooperate to resolve 4ey transbounary environ!ental proble!s 7e.g., La /a& #gree!ent: Minute F89;, there are recent i!portant e2a!ples 6here lac4 o$ cooperation has le to subopti!al 7e.g., 6in-lose rather than 6in-6in; outco!esI U >n -88-, Me2ico invo4e its privilege to eclare conitions o$ Ge2traorinary roughtH on the %io Grane an 6ithhel elivery o$ irrigation 6ater to (e2as $ar!ers, causing !illions o$ ollars in losses. U When the Unite States e2tene the security $ence at the borer bet6een "ogales, #ri&ona, an "ogales, Sonora, it 6as one 6ithout re$erence to local hyrological conitions an 6ithout input $ro! o$$icials on the Me2ico sie. Floo6aters in -88* beca!e i!poune behin the $ence on the "ogales, Sonora sie o$ the borer, causing !illions o$ pesos 6orth o$ a!age in Sonora. U (he lining o$ the #ll-#!erican Canal 7##C; 6as co!plete in -88*, uner $or!al protest an a$ter legal challenges by Me2ican an U.S. groups. (he change resulte in increase 6ater $or househols in San Biego County an ecrease 6ater $or $ar!ers in 0a@a Cali$ornia. Far!ers in the irrigation istrict o$ Me2icali ha use groun6ater recharge by seepage $lo6s $ro! the earthen-line canals $or over si2ty years, an concrete-lining o$ the ##C stoppe groun6ater recharge an there$ore reuce groun6ater availability JDI13 FO BeBo Lab Water Af War&in' Ine$itable War&in' is ine$itable re'ar"less o# actions ta*en ;rinn an" ;altse) in 1+ (Bonald Prinn k 1ergey Paltsev k #ndrei 1okolov k Marcus 1aro@m k 8ohn Beilly k +enry 8acoby, 8oint Program on the 1cience and Policy of )lobal 2hange, Massachusetts 5nstitute of %echnology, 2ambridge, M# O1cenarios &ith M5% integrated global systems modelK signi@cant global &arming regardless of di3erent approachesP httpKGG&&&.springerlink.comGcontentG929E2Erp9F2v69QGfullte(t.pdf" !e broa"er i&plication o# t!ese scenarios is t!at all see substantial continue" increases in te&perature t!at %oul" create serious en$iron&ental concerns( I# %e rule out t!e !i'!est (#475, #2, and Beference" as unt!in*able an" t!e lo%est (Hevel 4" as possibl) unac!ie$able %e arri$e at a scenario-"epen"ant te&perature increase ran'in' #ro& about 7(I to D(I^ co&pare" to present. Suc! increases %ill re.uire consi"erable a"aptation o# &an) !u&an s)ste&s an" %ill lea$e so&e aspects o# t!e eart!:s en$iron&ent irre$ersibl) c!an'e"( ;articularl) at ris* are t!e polar re'ions %!ere %ar&in' is a&pli2e"( 2hanges there &ill bring potentially large disruptions to coastal regions due to sea level rise as signi@cant amounts of the land ice sheets melt. %his &as the case in the last interglacial period (Cemian" &hen temperatures &ere no higher than these proAected levels. %hus, t!e re&ar*able aspect o# t!ese "iferent approac!es to scenario "e$elop&ent "ra%n #ro& in"ustr)1 a national 'o$ern&ent sponsore" stu")1 an" an inter'o$ern&ental process is not t!e "iferences in "etail an" p!ilosop!) but rat!er t!e si&ilar picture t!e) paint o# a %orl" at ris* #ro& cli&ate c!an'e e$en i# t!ere is substantial efort to re"uce e&issions #ro& re#erence con"itions( JDI13 FF BeBo Lab Water Af War&in' T 8eal War&in' is real1 !u&an cause"1 an" t!e pre"ictions o# its i&pacts are not exa''erate"1 e$en #or&er s*eptics a'ree Muller in 17(Bichard #., professor of physics at the :niversity of 2alifornia, 0erkeley, and a former Mac#rthur 7oundation fello&, is the author, most recently, of OCnergy for 7uture PresidentsK %he 1cience 0ehind the +eadlines.P O%he 2onversion of a 2limate-2hange 1kepticP httpKGG&&&.nytimes.comG242GQGFGopinionGthe- conversion-of-a-climate-change-skeptic.htmlVLr_2bpage&anted_all" 2#HH me a converted skeptic. %hree years ago 5 identi@ed problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, thre& doubt on the very e(istence of global &arming. Last )ear1 #ollo%in' an intensi$e researc! efort in$ol$in' a "o5en scientists1 I conclu"e" t!at 'lobal %ar&in' %as real an" t!at t!e prior esti&ates o# t!e rate o# %ar&in' %ere correct( I:& no% 'oin' a step #urt!er> Cu&ans are al&ost entirel) t!e cause( M) total turnaroun", in such a short time, is t!e result o# care#ul an" ob/ecti$e anal)sis b) t!e Ber*ele) Eart! Sur#ace e&perature pro/ect1 &hich 5 founded &ith my daughter Cli?abeth. .ur results sho& that t!e a$era'e te&perature o# t!e eart!:s lan" !as risen b) t%o an" a !al# "e'rees 0a!ren!eit o$er t!e past 7I+ )ears1 inclu"in' an increase o# one an" a !al# "e'rees o$er t!e &ost recent I+ )ears. Moreo$er, it appears li*el) t!at essentially all o# t!is increase results #ro& t!e !u&an e&ission o# 'reen!ouse 'ases. !ese 2n"in's are stron'er t!an t!ose o# t!e Inter'o$ern&ental ;anel on Cli&ate C!an'e, the :nited <ations group that de@nes the scienti@c and diplomatic consensus on global &arming. 5n its 2Q report, the 5.P.2.2. concluded only that most of the &arming of the prior 9 years could be attributed to humans. 5t &as possible, according to the 5.P.2.2. consensus statement, that the &arming before 4,9E could be because of changes in solar activity, and that even a substantial part of the more recent &arming could be natural. Our Ber*ele) Eart! approac! use" sop!isticate" statistical &et!o"s "e$elope" lar'el) b) our lea" scientist1 8obert 8o!"e1 %!ic! allo%e" us to "eter&ine eart! lan" te&perature &uc! #urt!er bac* in ti&e. We care#ull) stu"ie" issues raise" b) s*eptics> biases #ro& urban !eatin' (&e duplicated our results using rural data alone", #ro& "ata selection (prior groups selected fe&er than 2 percent of the available temperature stations- &e used virtually 4 percent", #ro& poor station .ualit) (&e separately analy?ed good stations and poor ones" an" #ro& !u&an inter$ention an" "ata a"/ust&ent ?our &ork is completely automated and hands-o3". In our papers %e "e&onstrate t!at none o# t!ese potentiall) troubleso&e efects un"ul) biase" our conclusions. %he historic temperature pattern &e observed has abrupt dips that match the emissions of kno&n e(plosive volcanic eruptions- the particulates from such events re>ect sunlight, make for beautiful sunsets and cool the earth/s surface for a fe& years. %here are small, rapid variations attributable to Cl <iIo and other ocean currents such as the )ulf 1tream- because of such oscillations, the O>atteningP of the recent temperature rise that some people claim is not, in our vie&, statistically signi@cant. W!at !as cause" t!e 'ra"ual but s)ste&atic rise o# t%o an" a !al# "e'reesV We trie" 2ttin' t!e s!ape to si&ple &at! #unctions ?exponentials1 pol)no&ials@1 to solar acti$it) an" e$en to risin' #unctions li*e %orl" population. B) #ar t!e best &atc! %as to t!e recor" o# at&osp!eric carbon "ioxi"e1 &easure" #ro& at&osp!eric sa&ples an" air trappe" in polar ice. 8ust as important, our JDI13 FG BeBo Lab Water Af record is long enough that &e could search for the @ngerprint of solar variability, based on the historical record of sunspots. %hat @ngerprint is absent. #lthough the 5.P.2.2. allo&ed for the possibility that variations in sunlight could have ended the OHittle 5ce #ge,P a period of cooling from the 4!th century to about 469, our data argues strongly that the temperature rise of the past 29 years cannot be attributed to solar changes. %his conclusion is, in retrospect, not too surprising- &e/ve learned from satellite measurements that solar activity changes the brightness of the sun very little. +o& de@nite is the attribution to humansV %he carbon dio(ide curve gives a better match than anything else &e/ve tried. 5ts magnitude is consistent &ith the calculated greenhouse e3ect ' e(tra &arming from trapped heat radiation. %hese facts don/t prove causality and they shouldn/t end skepticism, but they raise the barK to be considered seriously, an alternative e(planation must match the data at least as &ell as carbon dio(ide does. #dding methane, a second greenhouse gas, to our analysis doesn/t change the results. Moreo$er1 our anal)sis "oes not "epen" on lar'e1 co&plex 'lobal cli&ate &o"els1 t!e !u'e co&puter pro'ra&s t!at are notorious #or t!eir !i""en assu&ptions an" a"/ustable para&eters( Our result is base" si&pl) on t!e close a'ree&ent bet%een t!e s!ape o# t!e obser$e" te&perature rise an" t!e *no%n 'reen!ouse 'as increase. JDI13 G+ BeBo Lab Water Af =ot Enou'! Data !ere:s not enou'! "ata on !)"roc)cles in t!e context o# cli&ate c!an'e1 &a*es &o"els an" plannin' "i9cult to i&possible( Coole) in 17 (+eather- 2o-;irector of the Paci@c 5nstitute/s Water Program and M1 in Cnergy and Besources T 0erkeley- OWater and 2limate,P A Twenty-First Century US Water Policy- ed 8uliet 2hristian-1mith and Peter )leick- p." !e efects o# cli&ate c!an'e on %ater "e&an" are #ar less stu"ie" than are the impacts on hydrology. 5ndeed, the 2limate 2hange 1cience Program report fails to mention impacts on &ater demand. .verall, ho&ever, "e&an"s #or %ater in so&e sectors are sensiti$e to cli&ate1 particularl) a'riculture an" urban lan"scapes1 an" are li*el) to increase( ;lants typically re.uire &ore %ater as te&peratures rise, although higher atmospheric carbon dio(ide concentrations can reduce &ater re$uirements under some conditions. Because a'riculture accounts #or about H+ percent o# %ater use in t!e Unite" States (Kenny et al. 2,",4 "e&an" c!an'es in t!is sector &a) !a$e broa" i&plications. In some urban areas1 la%ns an" other out"oor uses are &a/or consu&ers o# %ater1 accountin' #or up to O+ percent o# total resi"ential %ater use in so&e !ot1 "r) areas1 an" t!ese "e&an"s %oul" increase un"er !otter te&peratures( War&er te&peratures %ill also increase t!e a&ount o# %ater nee"e" #or coolin' s)ste&s. More researc! is nee"e" on t!ese kinds of cli&ate-sensiti$e "e&an"s, on a regional basis. Water &ana'e&ent is #ailin' Balph #. Wurbs 7+13 may 4F 24F &ater allocation systems httpKGG&&&.intechopen.comGbooksG&ater-resources-planning-development-and- managementG&ater-allocation-systems Allocatin' %ater resources t!at are !i'!l) $ariable bot! te&porall) an" spatiall) a&on' a &)ria" o# %ater &ana'e&ent entities an" nu&erous %ater users %it!in an institutional settin' t!at !as e$ol$e" !istoricall) o$er &an) )ears is necessaril) co&plex . %he follo&ing concerns highlighted by the %e(as e(perience are illustrative of the numerous comple(ities in creating and administering &ater allocation systems. 0or &ost o# exas1 t!e %ater ri'!t per&it s)ste& is a"&inistere" %it!out %ater &aster operations( :pon re$uest, the %2CR takes enforcement action to stop reported unauthori?ed &ater use in violation of &ater rights permits. Co%e$er1 %ater users are not closel) &onitore" except "urin' "rou'!ts or e&er'enc) con"itions( !is approac! is si&ilar to &ost %estern states. 1everal &estern states have &ater-master operations, but most states do not. %he %2CR during 242-24F is investigating the feasibility of e(panding &ater master operations in %e(as. %he %2CR Ho&er Bio )rande Water Master .=ce maintains a precise accounting of &ater use, &orking closely &ith irrigators, cities, and the 5nternational 0oundary and Water 2ommission. With completion of the adAudication process during the late 4,6/s, plans &ere developed to establish &ater-master operations in all of the maAor river basins of %e(as. %he 1outh %e(as Water-Master Program &as created in the late JDI13 G1 BeBo Lab Water Af 4,6/s &ith responsibilities for 4QE Water Besources Planning, ;evelopment and Management the )uadalupe, <ueces, and 1an #ntonio Biver 0asins. Co%e$er1 %ater users are reluctant to !a$e re.uire&ents i&pose" upon t!e& #or installin' &eters an" &onitorin' an" re'ulatin' "i$ersions( ;olitical pressures !a$e pre$ente" t!e establis!&ent o# %ater-&aster o9ces in ot!er ri$er basins( +o&ever, the %e(as Hegislature in 242 directed the %2CR to solicit public input and develop recommendations for establishing &ater master operations for other river basins. Since strea& Ao%1 e$aporation1 reser$oir se"i&entation1 %ater use1 an" ot!er #actors are !i'!l) $ariable1 an" t!e #uture is un*no%n1 %ater a$ailabilit) &ust be $ie%e" #ro& a reliabilit)1 li*eli!oo"1 or percent-o#-ti&e perspecti$e( ra"eofs occur bet%een t!e a&ount o# %ater to co&&it #or bene2cial use an" t!e le$el o# reliabilit) t!at can be ac!ie$e"( Bene2cial use o# %ater is base" on assurin' a !i'! le$el o# reliabilit)( Co%e$er1 i# %ater co&&it&ents are li&ite" as re.uire" to assure an extre&el) !i'! le$el o# reliabilit)1 t!e a&ount o# strea& Ao% a$ailable #or bene2cial use is constraine"1 an" a 'reater proportion o# t!e %ater Ao%s to t!e ocean or is lost t!rou'! reser$oir e$aporation. %he optimal level of reliability varies &ith type of &ater use. Water allocation decisions necessarily re$uire $ualitative Audgment in determining acceptable levels of reliability both in terms of the reliability of the proposed ne& or increased &ater use and the impacts on the reliabilities of all of the e(isting &ater users. JDI13 G7 BeBo Lab Water Af NSol$enc)L JDI13 G3 BeBo Lab Water Af US Data Qe) :1 Key - .ther climate data providers lack the technical $uality and archive necessary for e3ective climate monitoring Marbur'er1 et al , O Physicist and 7ormer ;irector of .1%P (8ohn +. Marburger is an #merican physicist &ho &as the 1cience #dvisor to the President and the ;irector of the .=ce of 1cience and %echnology Policy in the administration of President )eorge W. 0ush. O# PH#< 7.B # :.1. <#%5.<#H H#<; 5M#)5<) PB.)B#MP 7uture of Hand 5maging 5nteragency Working )roup- #ugust 2Q- httpKGG&&&.landimaging.govG>iLi&gLreportLprintLreadyLlo&Lres.pdf" !e utilit) an" i&portance o# &o"erate-resolution lan" i&a'in' data !a$e been pro$en #or a ran'e o# critical applications #or ci$il1 &ilitar)1 an" intelli'ence nee"s1 )et t!e Unite" States !as ne$er establis!e" an operational pro'ra& centere" on a &o"erate resolution lan" i&a'in' capabilit). #lthough the <ation has permanent, operational space-based observation programs for &eather forecasting and for study of the atmosphere and oceans, t!ere is currentl) no polic) or plan #or a parallel lan" i&a'in' pro'ra&. 5n addition, t!e Unite" States is no lon'er t!e onl) supplier o# &o"erate-resolution lan" i&a'in' "ata. %oday, 0rance1 <er&an)1 Japan1 In"ia1 C!ina1 an" Bra5il possess or are buil"in' lan" i&a'in' satellites t!at1 at least in so&e respects1 are si&ilar to t!e Lan"sat satellite s)ste& (see #ppendi( 0 for details of international land imaging capabilities". O$er t!e next #e% )ears1 t!ese countries inten" to increase t!eir s)ste&s: capabilities suc! t!at t!e) &a) ri$al to"a):s Lan"sat in bot! .ualit) an" co$era'e. Ot!er nations are /oinin' t!is list1 alt!ou'! t!ese s)ste&:s "ata .ualit)1 i&a'in' capabilities1 or ot!er s)ste& c!aracteristics &a) pre$ent ac.uisition o# 'lobal "ata on a scale or %it! a #re.uenc) or .ualit) co¶ble to Lan"sat. 0urt!er&ore1 no ot!er nation !as an arc!i$e o# !istoric lan" i&a'er) co¶ble to t!e 3I-)ear 'lobal recor" t!e Unite" States &aintains #ro& Lan"sat( 0inall)1 obtainin' suc! "ata #ro& #orei'n sources in$ol$es reliabilit) an" securit) ris*s. Data 'ap can:t be sol$e"( Alternati$e satellites are not capable to &eet t!e nee"s( Wul"er et al , 11 (Michael # Wulder, 2anadian 7orest 1ervice, Paci@c 7orestry 2entre, <atural Besources 2anada- 8oanne 2. White, 0iospheric 1ciences 0ranch, <#1# )oddard 1pace 7light 2enter- 8e3ery ). Masek, 0iospheric 1ciences 0ranch, <#1# )oddard 1pace 7light 2enter- 8ohn ;&yer, 0iospheric 1ciences 0ranch, <#1# )oddard 1pace 7light 2enter- O0iospheric 1ciences 0ranch, <#1# )oddard 1pace 7light 2enterP- Reote Sensing of Environent (#n 5nterdisciplinary 8ournal that serves the remote sensing community &ith the publication of results on theory, science, applications and technology of remote sensing of Carth resources and environment"- Bemote 1ensing of Cnvironment 449 (244" Q!Q-Q94- httpKGGglobalmonitoring.sdstate.eduGfacultyGroyGWulderL244LB1CLHandsat- updateL449.pdf" Handsat is uni$ue in o3ering a high spatial resolution (F m" over a large image footprint (469l469 km" &ith high $uality and calibrated radiometric characteristics JDI13 GD BeBo Lab Water Af (Wulder et al., 26b". Handsat data are also collected follo&ing a long-term ac$uisition plan (H%#P" to ensure global coverage (#rvidson et al., 24" &ith collected imagery stored and made available through an open access archive (Woodcock et al., 26". %o mitigate a possible gap in Handsat imaging, <#1# and the :1)1 convened an interagency ;ata )ap 1tudy %eam, &hich identi@ed alternate data sources (focusing on 5B1, 20CB1" and also characteri?ed the spectral, radiometric, geometric, and spatial characteristics of these sources (2hander, 2Q". While 2hander (2Q" summari?e these characteristics in detail, that include baseline speci@cations for spectral bands, b49W error in at-sensor radiance, pi(els si?ed 4 to 4 m pi(el dimensions, geographic and band-to-band registration targets, and global observation of all land areas bet&een m64.2n latitude at least t&ice per year. Po&ell et al. (2Q" also identify the criteria re$uired for a particular sensor to be considered similar to Handsat. 1everal programs and sensors are identi@ed (e.g., 1P.%, 5B1, 20CB1, #1%CB, and #H5" as having the potential to address a gap in Handsat operations. While these communications can be consulted for lists of sensor characteristics and performance, from an applications point of vie&, speci@c user needs should guide the selection of alternate data source (Wulder et al., 26b". 7or instance, even if spatial, spectral, and temporal characteristics are appropriate, users should be mindful of the implications of smaller image footprints (leading to increased data management re$uirements and variable vie& angles bet&een adAacent images", do&nlink capabilities, image availability (on-demand or systematic collection and archiving", access to the imagery, and capacity to share unencumbered by restrictive data policies. %o note ongoing developments, the 2ommittee on Carth .bservation 1atellites (2C.1" is &orking to develop, through a *irtual 2onstellation concept, the capacity to incorporate the assets of various space programs to produce coordinated and complementary observations. .f pertinence to the continuity of observations in support of terrestrial ecosystem characteri?ation, the 2C.1 *irtual 2onstellation for Hand 1urface 5maging is aligning applicable space agencies to ma(imi?e the integration of current satellite-based observations and to recommend appropriate future missions (Hoveland et al., 26". US satellite "ata is *e) , no ot!er countr) !as t!e tec!nical i&a'es or t!e arc!i$e necessar) to trac* c!an'es( Marbur'er1 et al , O Physicist and 7ormer ;irector of .1%P (8ohn +. Marburger is an #merican physicist &ho &as the 1cience #dvisor to the President and the ;irector of the .=ce of 1cience and %echnology Policy in the administration of President )eorge W. 0ush. # PH#< 7.B # :.1. <#%5.<#H H#<; 5M#)5<) PB.)B#MP 7uture of Hand 5maging 5nteragency Working )roup- #ugust 2Q- httpKGG&&&.landimaging.govG>iLi&gLreportLprintLreadyLlo&Lres.pdf" A&on' t!e &o"erate-resolution satellite s)ste&s "e$elope" an" Ao%n b) $arious nations, t!e U(S( Lan"sat satellite series is uni.ue an" unparallele" in t!e %orl". 1ince 4,Q2, Lan"sat satellites !a$e pro$i"e" "ata #or bot! U(S( an" 'lobal nee"s, and these data are essential #or &eetin' t!e nee"s o# &an) le$els o# 'o$ern&ent1 inclu"in' 0e"eral1 State1 local1 an" tribal /uris"ictions( 1uch "ata are critical in national and global agricultural assessments performed by the :.1. ;epartment of #griculture and provide essential data #or U(S( international a'encies. 7or e(ample, t!e U(S( A'enc) #or International De$elop&ent:s 0a&ine Earl) Warnin' S)ste& =et%or* currentl) uses Lan"sat i&a'er) #or #oo" securit) applications #or nu&erous nations in A#rica1 t!e Mi""le East1 an" Central Asia( 5n addition, numerous :.1. and international land cover programs rely on Handsat data for human health and ecological planning. Lan"sat "ata are also use" #or U(S( national an" !o&elan" securit) operations( !ree c!aracteristics &a*e t!e existin' U(S( &o"erate-resolution lan" i&a'in' s)ste& uni.ueK i Lan"sat is t!e onl) &o"erate-resolution satellite t!at pro$i"es 'lobal clou"-#ree co$era'e of the entire Carth/s land surface on a seasonal basis. i !e ra"io&etric1 spectral1 an" 'eo&etric .ualit) o# Lan"sat:s i&a'er) is JDI13 GI BeBo Lab Water Af unparallele" an" its co$era'e across se$eral *e) spectral ban"s is uni.ue a&on' t!e %orl":s satellites.F i !e 3I-)ear-ol" U(S( Lan"sat arc!i$e , managed by the :.1. )eological 1urvey, is a uni.ue repositor) o# satellite i&a'er)1 allo%in' accurate co&parisons o# natural an" !u&an-in"uce" c!an'es on t!e Eart!:s sur#ace o$er se$eral "eca"es( JDI13 GH BeBo Lab Water Af AA; Sol$enc) al*s are efecti$e , pro$en b) Ar'entina an" C!ile 2hristcpher #. Scott et al 13, 7rancisco 8. Meia, Pobert . varady, +olm+essen , 8amie McCvoy , )regg m. oar@n , Margaret &ilder, mis m. 7arfn , <icols Pineda Pabtos b Clrra Momaa (24F" &ater 1ecurity and #daptive Management in the #rid #mericas, #nnals of the #ssociation of #merican )eographers. 4FK2, 26-26,, 22 K lb link to the articleK i'or Jbi doi.crtN- K i KpMN vK-S.o Ko-M 0ut, as our case studies indicate, the decade-anda-half e(periences of our research team have sho&n that even in the sometimes turbulent crucible of the :.1.DMe(ico border region, common &ater management obAectives can trump dissimilar interests. %he scientists, decision makers, o=cials, and others'from both sides of the border'have generally demonstrated that they can overcome cultural, legal, administrative, and infrastructural disparities. #t their most successful, such sessions have yielded agreement on the need for binational cooperation, more and better data and information, harmoni?ed scienti@c protocols, collaborative research, and mutually acceptable priorities for confronting &ater insecurity resulting from drought and >ood e(tremes, ecosystem change, and rising human demand for &ater. 7acilitated by team members, the dialogues &ere e(tended to #rgentine and 2hilean scientists and o=cials &ho met &ith community members and agreed to &ork to reduce threats to #ndean &ater security'by alleviating drought damage and addressing social ine$uity in the agricultural sector'even as glaciers continue to recede at alarming rates. Collaboration is pro$en to %or* 2hristcpher #. Scott et al 13, 7rancisco 8. Meia, Pobert . varady, +olm+essen , 8amie McCvoy , )regg m. oar@n , Margaret &ilder, mis m. 7arfn , <icols Pineda Pabtos b Clrra Momaa (24F" &ater 1ecurity and #daptive Management in the #rid #mericas, #nnals of the #ssociation of #merican )eographers. 4FK2, 26-26,, 22 K lb link to the articleK i'or Jbi doi.crtN- K i KpMN vK-S.o Ko-M 2ase e(amples from our e(peri-\ ences in building institutional adaptive capacity of di-\ verse stakeholders illustrate the bene@ts and challenges\ of collaborative approaches.\ %he :.1.'Me(ico border region has e(hibited\ a history of transboundary collaboration on shared\ &ater and environmental resources (7ischhendler and\ 7eitelson 2F" as &ell as legal frame&orks that support\ such collaboration (Ha Pa? #greement of 4,6F- Minute\ FE addition to 4,!! :.1.' Me(ico &ater treaty, in\ 2". #voidable &ater-insecurity risk has resulted,\ ho&ever, &hen the :nited 1tates or Me(ico opted\ not to collaborate- this represents a societal threshold\ potentially crossed (7igure 4". #n e(ample is the 26\ impoundment of >ood&aters causing damage in Me(ico\ &hen the :nited 1tates e(tended the border fence\ &ithout ade$uate consideration of local hydrology. JDI13 GO BeBo Lab Water Af A"apti$e Mana'e&ent Sol$enc) A"apti$e %ater &ana'e&ent sol$es 2hristcpher #. Scott et al 13, 7rancisco 8. Meia, Pobert . varady, +olm+essen , 8amie McCvoy , )regg m. oar@n , Margaret &ilder, mis m. 7arfn , <icols Pineda Pabtos b Clrra Momaa (24F" &ater 1ecurity and #daptive Management in the #rid #mericas, #nnals of the #ssociation of #merican )eographers. 4FK2, 26-26,, 22 K lb link to the articleK i'or Jbi doi.crtN- K i KpMN vK-S.o Ko-M #daptive management, &hich @rst emerged from\ ecosystems theory and practice (+olling 4,Q6", rapidly\ gained appeal in the analysis of social-ecological\ systems (0erkes and 7olke 4,,6" and coupled\ human'natural resilience (<elson, #dger, and 0ro&n\ 2Q". #daptive &ater management accounts for\ uncertainty through >e(ible planning, kno&ledge\ sharing'especially bet&een scientists and decision\ makers'and enhanced capacity to respond re>e(-\ ively to multiple and uncertain processes of change (Pahl-Wostl et al. 2Q". #lthough the concept of\ adaptive management has been lauded in &ater policy circles, t&o criti$ues center on (4" assumptions by proponents that key decisions over &ater allocation,\ infrastructure, and outcomes are apolitical (*o0 and\ 0ornemanne 244"- and (2" ambiguity over the end\ goal of adaptive management (Pahl-Wostl et al. 2Q".\ We argue @rst that the science'policy interactive\ process cannot be blind to the political nature of de-\ cision making (this is discussed in further detail in the\ ne(t section". 1econd, our framing of &ater security\ in 1C+ terms re$uires a clearer end goal to guide\ science'policy discussions. 0ased on our e(perience\ &orking &ith stakeholders, &e consider it fundamental\ to align the de@nition of adaptive management &ith\ &ater security as an outcome goal, albeit one that must\ be understood in dynamic and re>e(ive terms. .ur\ de@nition follo&sK #daptive &ater management is the\ science'policy process to plan interactively for societal,\ ecosystem, and hydroclimatic uncertainties- initiate\ responsive action- and iteratively assess &ater security\ outcomes in societal and ecosystem resilience terms. JDI13 GF BeBo Lab Water Af Data Q7 ;re"ictions ;roper "ata s!arin' *e) to $eri#)in' pre"ictions Margaret Wil"er et al( 131 #ssociate Professor, 2enter for Hatin #merican 1tudies, )regg )ar@n (:niversity of #ri?ona", Paul )anster (5nstitute for Begional 1tudies of the 2alifornias, 1an ;iego 1tate :niversity", +allie Cakin (#ri?ona 1tate :niversity", Patricia Bomero-Hankao (<2#B", 7rancisco Hara-*alencia (#ri?ona 1tate :niversity", #lfonso #. 2orte?-Hara (2olegio de la 7rontera <orte", 1tephen Mumme (2olorado 1tate :niversity", 2arolina <eri (<ational #utonomous :niversity of Me(ico", 7rancisco MuIo?-#rriola (1cripps 5nstitution of .ceanography" Cliate Change an! U"S"-#e$ico %or!er Counities page F94 JhttpKGGs&carr.ari?ona.eduGsitesGdefaultG@lesG#221W:1L2h4E.pdfM %he border region considered here is characteri?ed by high aridity and high tempera-\ tures. %ypically, about half of the eastern part of the regionNs precipitation falls in the\ summer months, associated &ith the <orth #merican monsoon, &hile the maAority of\ annual precipitation in the 2alifornias falls bet&een <ovember and March. %he region\ is subAect to both signi@cant inter-annual and multi-decadal variability in precipitation.S4\ %his variability, associated &ith C<1., has driven droughts and >oods and challenged\ hydrological planning in the region.iv 7urther challenging this understanding is a pau-\ city of data, particularly on the high-altitude mountainous regions in northern Me(ico.\ Diferences in t!e a$ailabilit) o# !i'!-.ualit) an" continuous &eteorolo'ical an" !)-\ "rolo'ical recor"s spannin' lon' perio"s o# ti&e1 an" relati$el) poor "ata s!arin' co&-\ plicate un"erstan"in' o# t!e bor"er re'ionKs cli&ate( !e scarcit) o# suc! "ata &a*es it\ "i9cult to $eri#) cli&ate &o"el pro/ections at 2ne spatial scales(\ Also1 reconcilin' "iferences in pro/ecte" c!an'es in te&perature1 base" on 'lobal cli-\ &ate &o"el ?<CM@ stu"ies con"ucte" separatel) b) U(S( an" Mexican scientists ?able\ 1H(1@1$ is co&plicate" b) t!e #act t!at ?1@ t!e) use "iferent sets o# &o"els #ro& t!e I;CC\ 0ourt! Assess&ent arc!i$eB ?7@ t!e) use "iferent &et!o"s o# "o%nscalin' output #ro&\ coarse spatial scale &o"els to 2ner re'ional spatial scalesBJ ?3@ in so&e cases t!e) "o not\ use t!e sa&e 'reen!ouse 'as ?<C<@ e&issions scenariosB ?D@ t!e) a$era'e #uture pro/ec-\ tions #or "iferent spans o# )earsB an" ?I@ t!e) use "iferent spans o# )ears #or pro$i"in'\ a &easure o# a$era'e !istorical cli&ate( Ci'! .ualit) "ata are essential #or statisticall)\ "o%nscalin' <CM output( %hus, issues &ith meteorological observations add to several\ other sources of uncertainty (see discussion in 2hapters 2 and 4,". JDI13 GG BeBo Lab Water Af Data *7 Mana'e&ent Data s!arin' is *e) to efecti$e &ana'e&ent , Onl) t!e plan sol$es E;A 7++I O)ood <eighbor Cnvironmental 0oard Water Besources Management on the :.1.- Me(ico 0order,P httpKGG&&&.epa.govGocempageGgnebGgneb6threportGgneb6threport.pdf Li&ite" %ater supplies1 couple" %it! an increasin' "e&an" #or %ater resources1 !a$e lea" to co&petition an" so&eti&es ani&osit). %he desire to drill more and more individual &ells to &ithdra& supplies from a$uifers that have yet to be character - i?ed can only gro& stronger under such drought conditions. So&e %ater &ana'ers an" in"i$i"uals %or*in' an" obser$in' current %ater use tren"s alon' t!e bor"er belie$e t!is %ill lea" to a 3bi-national %ater-suppl) crisis(4 7rom the perspective of the )ood <eighbor Cnvironmental 0oard, t!e ris*s associate" %it! "ata s!arin' are tri$ial co&pare" %it! t!e ris*s o# %ater &ana'e&ent "ecisions &a"e %it! poor an"Mor ina"e.uate "ata( JDI13 1++ BeBo Lab Water Af Sol$es 8elations 7ailure to address &ater management leads to various con>icts &ith relations CSIS G 2enter for 1trategic and 5nternational 1tudies, U"S" Trans&oun!ary Water #anageent' The Case of Rio (ran!e) Rio %ravo * Recoen!ations for Policya+ers in the #e!iu an! ,ong-ter Page 4, JhttpKGGcsis.orgG@lesGmediaGcsisGpubsGbinationalLcouncil.pdfM C+7 (he council recogni&es that $ailure to ae<uately aress U.S.-Me2ico transbounary 6ater !anage!ent coul generate a estabili&ing !i2ture o$ value con$licts 6ithin an bet6een our t6o nations. (his con$lict coul pit rural against urbanJ!unicipal co!!unities, inigenousJ"ative #!erican people against at large populations, an international coalitions o$ econo!ic evelop!ent avocates against har-line environ!entalists. We also recogni&e that any progress on a binational level 6ill re<uire an interisciplinary approach that is co!prehensive an inclusive. (he inclusive nature o$ the issue is o$ para!ount i!portance, as our nations continue the tren to6ar ecentrali&ation an the e!po6er!ent o$ nu!erous actors. (he council hopes that this report not only sti!ulates thin4ing on this issue, but also helps to generate the political 6ill re<uire on both sies o$ the borer to achieve e<uitable an sustainable transbounary 6ater !anage!ent. JDI13 1+1 BeBo Lab Water Af 8elations Spillo$er Binational cooperation creates resilienc) #or bot! in$ol$e" Cur" 13 (0rian, Professor of #gricultural Cconomics T <M1: S2limate *ulnerability and #daptive 1trategies #long the Bio )randeGBio 0ravo 0order of Me(ico and the :nited 1tatesS. 8ournal of 2ontemporary Water Besearch b Cducation. httpKGGonlinelibrary.&iley.comGdoiG4.4444GA.4,FE-Q!c.242.F42Q.(Gfull" Begional adaptive responses across borders could increase resilience and decrease vulnerability to climatic changes. 1uch cross-border approaches can emerge through shared social learning and kno&ledge, by creating binational communities of practice, such as among &ater managers or disaster-relief planners, and by addressing ine$uities resulting from uneven development. US-Mexico %ater cooperation is li*el) to s!o% positi$e i&pacts1 inclu"in' increase" #uture collaboration an" an exa&ple #or ot!ers Cur" 13 (0rian, Professor of #gricultural Cconomics T <M1: S2limate *ulnerability and #daptive 1trategies #long the Bio )randeGBio 0ravo 0order of Me(ico and the :nited 1tatesS. 8ournal of 2ontemporary Water Besearch b Cducation. httpKGGonlinelibrary.&iley.comGdoiG4.4444GA.4,FE-Q!c.242.F42Q.(Gfull" :pon assessing three distinct e3orts at binational cooperation along the #ri?ona- 1onora border, Wilder et al. (24" conclude that adaptive potential across the border is promising and likely to sho& positive impacts. 2ontinued e3orts follo&ing Wilder et al. in these directions sho& distinct &ays for co-adaptation that not only contributes to building regional adaptive capacity in response to climate change but o3ers a glimpse to&ard cooperative strategies that may bene@t e3orts to manage other binational resources and o3er a template to other regions. JDI13 1+7 BeBo Lab Water Af Mexico Sa)s 6es Bot! si"es %ill %or* to'et!er co!esi$el) #or t!e purpose o# i&pro$e" %ater &ana'e&ent Para") et al 11 (Bobert, Besearch Professor of Cnvironmental Policy and of #rid Hand 1tudies T : of #ri?ona. SWater 1ecurity and #daptive Management in the #rid #mericasS #nnals of the #ssociation of #merican )eographers. httpKGG&&&.tandfonline.comGdoiGfullG4.46G!9E6.24F.Q9!EEf.:dhLik)y0$K " 0ut, as our case studies indicate, the decade-and-a-half e(periences of our research team have sho&n that even in the sometimes turbulent crucible of the :.1.DMe(ico border region, common &ater management obAectives can trump dissimilar interests. %he scientists, decision makers, o=cials, and others'from both sides of the border'have generally demonstrated that they can overcome cultural, legal, administrative, and infrastructural disparities. #t their most successful, such sessions have yielded agreement on the need for binational cooperation, more and better data and information, harmoni?ed scienti@c protocols, collaborative research, and mutually acceptable priorities for confronting &ater insecurity resulting from drought and >ood e(tremes, ecosystem change, and rising human demand for &ater. JDI13 1+3 BeBo Lab Water Af NNOf CaseLL JDI13 1+D BeBo Lab Water Af NNA C;sLL JDI13 1+I BeBo Lab Water Af A ;ri$ati5ation ;ri$ati5ation #ails #or Mexico , !e) %ill re/ect an" t!e poor %on:t be ser$ice"( Ma*es it a ba" &o"el Lau"icina 7+13 Hee #., 8uris ;octor candidate at Hoyola :niversity 2hicago 1chool of Ha&, 26. +e received a 0achelor of #rts from the :niversity of Michigan, 29. 8anuary F4, O5nternational Water ;isputesK +o& to Prevent a War .ver the <ile Biver,P httpKGG&&&.luc.eduGla&GmediaGla&GstudentsGpublicationsGilrGpdfsGlaudicinaL&ater.pdf +o&ever, pri$ati5ation has brou'!t #er$ent opposition. 5n March 2E, t!ousan"s o# people &arc!e" t!rou'! Mexico Cit) protestin' %ater pri$ati5ationB it %as t!e 2rst ti&e an en$iron&ental issue !a" &obili5e" so &an) people. 442 Many fear that Opro2t-"ri$en co&panies %ill be reluctant to ser$e t!e poorP 44F and &ill take advantage of gratuitous price increases. 44! Water sol" as a co&- &o"it) is o#ten onl) afor"able to t!e pri$ile'e" an" can "eepen ine.ualities be- t%een t!e ric! an" poor. 449 8ecent pri$ati5ation pro/ects !a$e not been success#ul1 even in poor, develop- ing nations. 44E In Latin A&erica, for e(ample, 3pri$ate concessions !a$e exacer- bate" ine.uities in access to %ater b) #ocusin' ser$ices in lucrati$e urban 5ones an" i'norin' areas %!ere t!e nee" is %orst.P 44Q C(perts have also declared one of the &orld/s largest privati?ation e3orts, taking place in the Philippines, a fail- ure because of substantial increases in &ater rates, &ater losses due to inade$uate infrastructure, and insu=cient private funding to maintain programs for the ur- ban poor. 446 ;ri$ati5ation #ails in t!e =ile Basin Lau"icina 7+13 Hee #., 8uris ;octor candidate at Hoyola :niversity 2hicago 1chool of Ha&, 26. +e received a 0achelor of #rts from the :niversity of Michigan, 29. 8anuary F4, O5nternational Water ;isputesK +o& to Prevent a War .ver the <ile Biver,P httpKGG&&&.luc.eduGla&GmediaGla&GstudentsGpublicationsGilrGpdfsGlaudicinaL&ater.pdf <ile 0asin nations cannot a3ord the risk of increased civil protest or violence. %he director of the 5nternational Belations 2enter #mericas Program, Haura 2arl- son, e(claimed, 3XtY!e pri$ati5ation &o"el #or %ater use an" "istribution !as #aile" to "eli$er( It:s ti&e to &a*e roo& #or ne%1 &ore "e&ocratic1 alterna- ti$es(4 44, )lobally, public opinion is stron'l) a'ainst pri$ate-sector &ana'e&ent o# %ater resources, 42 an" people &ore o#ten $ie% %ater as a basic !u&an ri'!t t!at s!oul" not be &ana'e" b) pri$ate co&panies. 424 ;er& "o bot! , ;ri$ati5ation #ails to sol$e t!e =ile Basin Lau"icina 7+13 Hee #., 8uris ;octor candidate at Hoyola :niversity 2hicago 1chool of Ha&, 26. +e received a 0achelor of #rts from the :niversity of Michigan, 29. 8anuary F4, O5nternational Water ;isputesK +o& to Prevent a War .ver the <ile Biver,P httpKGG&&&.luc.eduGla&GmediaGla&GstudentsGpublicationsGilrGpdfsGlaudicinaL&ater.pdf %he general contention among international practitioners and commentators is that it is not possible to establish a generic model of &ater la& applicable to all nations. 4!, Xet, 'reat pro'ress can be &a"e in t!e =ile Basin i# t!e riparian nations JDI13 1+H BeBo Lab Water Af supple&ent t!e =BI b) extractin' #eatures #ro& t!e recent United States' Mexico ne'otiations1 t!e pri$ati5ation &o"el, and the human rights model. o pre$ent #uture conAict, 0asin nations should focus on their common interests and develop a central institution backed by private funding that has the po&er to enforce agreements, &hich maintain >e(ible standards of &ater alloca- tion and $uality. JDI13 1+O BeBo Lab Water Af A C8 Approac! Cu&an ri'!ts approac! to %ater #ails t!e =ile Basin , no &ec!anis& o# en#orce&ent an" %ill ta*e too lon' to sol$e Lau"icina 7+13 Hee #., 8uris ;octor candidate at Hoyola :niversity 2hicago 1chool of Ha&, 26. +e received a 0achelor of #rts from the :niversity of Michigan, 29. 8anuary F4, O5nternational Water ;isputesK +o& to Prevent a War .ver the <ile Biver,P httpKGG&&&.luc.eduGla&GmediaGla&GstudentsGpublicationsGilrGpdfsGlaudicinaL&ater.pdf +o&ever, reco'ni5in' %ater as a !u&an ri'!t is not t!e best &ec!anis& #or brin'in' a ti&el) solution to t!e proble&s o# t!e =ile 8i$er Basin. Cstablishing a human right to &ater is purported to help reduce poverty by raising the living standard, but there is no guarantee of such a result. 4!9 W!ile t!e ri'!t to #oo", for instance, is reco'ni5e" as a !u&an ri'!t1 %i"esprea" #a&ine still exists. 4!E 7ur- thermore, t!e unstable an" i&po$eris!e" nations o# t!e =ile Basin %oul" !a$e extre&e "i9cult) en#orcin' clai&s o# "epri$e" %ater accessB especially claims regarding co-riparian nations. 5n countries that currently recogni?e &ater as a human right, like 1outh #frica, the local courts adAudicate accountability in situa- tions of misuse. 4!Q +o&ever, suc! an en#orce&ent &ec!anis& %oul" be inefec- ti$e a'ainst co-riparian nations as .uestions o# /uris"iction1 an" t!e responsibilities nei'!borin' states o%e one anot!er are )et to be "e2niti$el) an- s%ere"( Moreover, most <ile 0asin countries su3er from dysfunctional Audicial systems and most Audges are unable to adAudicate &ater disputes e3ectively be- cause government administrative institutions often undermine the independence of Audiciary systems. 4!6 W!ile a !u&an ri'!t to %ater &a) e$entuall) beco&e custo&ar) international la%1 %it! rapi"l) "i&inis!in' resources1 increasin' po$- ert)1 an" continuin' political instabilit)1 t!e riparian nations o# t!e =ile Basin cannot %ait until t!at ti&e co&es( ;er& "o bot! , Cu&an ri'!ts approac! can:t sol$e =ile Basin Lau"icina 7+13 Hee #., 8uris ;octor candidate at Hoyola :niversity 2hicago 1chool of Ha&, 26. +e received a 0achelor of #rts from the :niversity of Michigan, 29. 8anuary F4, O5nternational Water ;isputesK +o& to Prevent a War .ver the <ile Biver,P httpKGG&&&.luc.eduGla&GmediaGla&GstudentsGpublicationsGilrGpdfsGlaudicinaL&ater.pdf %he general contention among international practitioners and commentators is that it is not possible to establish a generic model of &ater la& applicable to all nations. 4!, Xet, 'reat pro'ress can be &a"e in t!e =ile Basin i# t!e riparian nations supple&ent t!e =BI b) extractin' #eatures #ro& t!e recent United States' Mexico ne'otiations, the privati?ation model, an" t!e !u&an ri'!ts &o"el( o pre$ent #uture conAict1 0asin nations should focus on their common interests and develop a central institution backed by private funding that has the po&er to enforce agreements, &hich maintain >e(ible standards of &ater alloca- tion and $uality. JDI13 1+F BeBo Lab Water Af JDI13 1+G BeBo Lab Water Af A Desalination C; Desalination strate'ies "iscoura'e sustainabilit) an" lon' ter& a"aptation( Wil"er et al in 1+ (Margaret, Christopher A Scott, Nicolas Pineda Pablos, Robert G Varady, Gregg M Garfin, and Jamie Mc!oy" #atin American St$dies and %dall Center for St$dies in P$blic Policy % of Ari&ona, School of Geopgraphy and 'e!elopment and %dall Center % of Ari&ona, P$blic Policy St$dies l Colegio de Sonora, %dall Center % of Ari&ona, (nstit$te of the n!ironment and School of Nat$ral Reso$rces and n!ironment % of Ari&ona, and School of Geography and 'e!elopment % of Ari&ona" )Adapting Across *o$ndaries+ Climate Change, Social #earning, and Resilience in the %,S,- Me.ico *order Region,/ Annals of the Association of American Geographers 011(23" Scholar3 Desalination of sea&ater has attracted both attention and @nancing by those &ho see it as a failproof source of &ater in the study region (Kohlho3 and Boberts 2Q". #s the cost of desalination has decreased, its appeal for augmentation has risen. <evertheless, desalination "oes not ran* !i'! in our measures of a"apti$e potential. #lthough "esalination, as a technological innovation, could meet increasing demand, it is unli*el) to pro&pt sustainable c!an'e in &ater users/ be!a$iors un"er cli&ate c!an'e. 5n fact, "esalination1 i# not couple" %it! conser$ation &easures1 enables a business as - usual %ater culture'averse to social learning'an" "iscoura'es sustainable %ater use( !e re'ion:s &a/or urban areas %oul" beco&e "epen"ent on both desalination tec!nolo') an" 'oo" relations bet%een U(S( an" Mexican aut!orities'each of %!ic! coul" pro$e unreliable. =o a"apti$e potential #or "esalination an" no &o"el spillo$er , &a) actuall) exacerbate consu&ption( Wil"er et al in 1+ (Margaret, Christopher A Scott, Nicolas Pineda Pablos, Robert G Varady, Gregg M Garfin, and Jamie Mc!oy" #atin American St$dies and %dall Center for St$dies in P$blic Policy % of Ari&ona, School of Geopgraphy and 'e!elopment and %dall Center % of Ari&ona, P$blic Policy St$dies l Colegio de Sonora, %dall Center % of Ari&ona, (nstit$te of the n!ironment and School of Nat$ral Reso$rces and n!ironment % of Ari&ona, and School of Geography and 'e!elopment % of Ari&ona" )Adapting Across *o$ndaries+ Climate Change, Social #earning, and Resilience in the %,S,- Me.ico *order Region,/ Annals of the Association of American Geographers 011(23" Scholar3 .verall, then, %e assess the augmentation strategies of "esalination to be of lo% a"apti$e potential. #ssessed against the identi@ed indicators, the desalination proposals "o not in$ol$e structure" opportunities #or social learnin' or c!an'es in institutional culture or polic) priorities. Data s!arin' %oul" be in the conte(t of formal contract-base" exc!an'es1 rat!er t!an more per&eable, >uid, relational kinds of *no%le"'e exc!an'es such as those identi@ed by 2ash et al. (2F". =e% co&&unities o# practice are not anticipate" to e&er'e #ro& "esalination strate'ies an" binational relations!ips %ill be strait/ac*ete" %it!in a boun"e" le'al #ra&e%or*. !e "esalination strate'ies are not onl) unli*el) to a"" to a"apti$e capacit)1 but they coul" lea" to &ore of the entrenc!e"1 le'alistic relations t!at !a$e sometimes !a&pere" cooperati$e, binational %ater &ana'e&ent in the past. Absent a conser$ation strate'), t!ese strate'ies enable a status .uo %ater culture t!at $ie%s "esalinate" sea%ater as a li&itless substitute #or JDI13 11+ BeBo Lab Water Af #res! %ater. 5ronically, increase" inter"epen"ence %ill ensue under the proposed desalination strategies, re.uirin' i&pro$e" cooperation bet&een the :nited 1tates and Me(ico, )et t!ese strate'ies "o little to #oster better co&&unication an" en!ance" collaboration an" t!ere#ore could actually increase $ulnerabilit). Desal can:t sol$e all instances an" lea"s to irresponsible use o# %ater1 i# it #ails t!e proble& %ill be e$en %orse , Mana'e&ent strate'ies li*e t!e af are *e) Eart!al* 7+13 O2an .cean ;esalination 1olve the WorldNs Water 1hortageV,P httpKGGenvironment.about.comGodGbiodiversityconservationGaGdesalination.htm 0ood b Water Watch a"$ocates instead #or better #res! %ater &ana'e&ent practices( JOcean "esalination !i"es t!e 'ro%in' %ater suppl) proble& instea" o# #ocusin' on %ater &ana'e&ent an" lo%erin' %ater usa'e1S the group reports, citing a recent study &hich found that Cali#ornia can &eet its %ater nee"s #or t!e next 3+ )ears b) i&ple&entin' cost-efecti$e urban %ater conser$ation( Desalination is Jan expensi$e1 speculati$e suppl) option t!at %ill "rain resources a%a) #ro& &ore practical solutions1J the group says.\ ;espite such arguments, the practice is becoming more common. %ed Hevin of the <atural Besources ;efense 2ouncil says that more than 42, desalination plants already supply fresh &ater in 42 nations, mostly in the Middle Cast and 2aribbean. #nd analysts e(pect the &orld&ide market for desalinated &ater to gro& signi@cantly over the coming decades. Cnvironmental advocates may Aust have to settle for pushing to SgreenS the practice as much as possible in lieu of eliminating it altogether. Desalination turns a"aptation an" causes 2s!eries collapse , &eans #oo" priceMsuppl) is a DA to t!e counterplan( Wil"er et al in 1+ (Margaret, Christopher A Scott, Nicolas Pineda Pablos, Robert G Varady, Gregg M Garfin, and Jamie Mc!oy" #atin American St$dies and %dall Center for St$dies in P$blic Policy % of Ari&ona, School of Geopgraphy and 'e!elopment and %dall Center % of Ari&ona, P$blic Policy St$dies l Colegio de Sonora, %dall Center % of Ari&ona, (nstit$te of the n!ironment and School of Nat$ral Reso$rces and n!ironment % of Ari&ona, and School of Geography and 'e!elopment % of Ari&ona" )Adapting Across *o$ndaries+ Climate Change, Social #earning, and Resilience in the %,S,- Me.ico *order Region,/ Annals of the Association of American Geographers 011(23" Scholar3 Many conse.uences o# the proposed "esalination' inclu"in' the efects o# brine OreAectP "isc!ar'e'are not *no%n1 and the results of an environmental impact study scheduled for completion in ;ecember 26 have not been released. =o existin' #e"eral la% re'ulates !o% a "esalination plant operates in Mexico (HUope?-PUere? 2,". Alt!ou'! "e$elopin' ne% sources o# #res! %ater to au'&ent existin' 'roun"%ater sources %oul" protect a.ui#ers and potentially allo& them to recover to nearer e$uilibrium levels, percei$e" li&itless supplies o# %ater likely %oul" encoura'e urban 'ro%t!. %here could be a""itional i&pacts on t!e #ra'ile estuaries an" 2s!eries o# t!e <ul# o# Cali#ornia an" potential "isruption o# si'ni2cant ecos)ste&s %!ere t!e propose" a.ue"uct %oul" tra$erse t!e "esert. Moreover, because Ari5ona an" =e$a"a %oul" continue to use t!eir #ull allot&ents plus "esalinate" JDI13 111 BeBo Lab Water Af suppl)' %it!out re"ucin' current use'no net 'ains to t!e a.ui#ers or to Colora"o 8i$er allocations likely %oul" be reali5e". Wi"esprea" "esal collapses ocean bio" Eart!al* 7+13 O2an .cean ;esalination 1olve the WorldNs Water 1hortageV,P httpKGGenvironment.about.comGodGbiodiversityconservationGaGdesalination.htm On t!e en$iron&ental #ront1 %i"esprea" "esalination coul" ta*e a !ea$) toll on ocean bio"i$ersit)( JOcean %ater is 2lle" %it! li$in' creatures1 an" &ost o# t!e& are lost in t!e process o# "esalination1J says 1ylvia Carle, one of the &orldNs foremost marine biologists and a <ational )eographic C(plorer-in-Besidence. OMost are &icrobial1 but inta*e pipes to "esalination plants also ta*e up t!e lar$ae o# a cross section o# li#e in t!e sea1 as %ell as so&e #airl) lar'e or'anis&s_ part o# t!e !i""en cost o# "oin' business,P she says.\ Carle also points out that the very salty residue left over from desalination must be disposed of properly, not Aust dumped back into the sea. 7ood b Water Watch concurs, &arning that coastal areas alrea") battere" b) urban an" a'ricultural run-of can ill afor" to absorb tons o# concentrate" salt%ater slu"'e( Bio"i$ersit) loss lea"s to extinction Diner 'en"er parap!rase" GD Military Ha& Bevie& Winter 4,,! 4!F Mil. H. Bev. 4E4 HC<)%+K FE99 &ords #B%52HCK %+C #BMX #<; %+C C<;#<)CBC; 1PC25C1 #2%K W+.N1 C<;#<)CB5<) W+.MV <#MCK M#8.B ;#*5; <. ;5<CB 05.K 8udge #dvocate )eneralNs 2orps, :nited 1tates #rmy. (iologically diverse ecosystems are characterized !y a large num!er of specialist species, filling narrow ecological niches" )hese ecosystems inherently are more sta!le than less diverse systems " *)he more complex the ecosystem, the more successfully it can resist a stress" " " " +l,ike a net, in which each knot is connected to others !y several strands, such a fa!ric can resist collapse !etter than a simple, un!ranched circle of threads -- 6hich i$ cut any6here brea4s o6n as a 6hole.V n,1 0y causing 6iesprea e2tinctions, hu!ans have arti$icially si!pli$ie !any ecosyste!s. #s biologic si!plicity increases, so oes the ris4 o$ ecosyste! $ailure. (he spreaing Sahara Besert in #$rica, an the ustbo6l conitions o$ the .1F8s in the Unite States are relatively !il e2a!ples o$ 6hat !ight be e2pecte i$ this tren continues. (heoretically, each new ani!al or plant extinction , with all its dimly perceived and intertwined affects, could cause total ecosystem collapse and human extinction " -ach new extinction increases the risk of disaster" .ike a mechanic removing, one !y one, the rivets from an aircraft/s wings , n0$ +hu,mankind may !e edging closer to the a!yss" Desal plants cost billions Onis!i 7+1+ <orimitsu, &riter, O#rid #ustralia 1ips 1ea&ater, but at a 2ost,P httpKGG&&&.nytimes.comG24GQG44G&orldGasiaG44&ater.html In one o# t!e countr):s bi''est in#rastructure pro/ects in its !istor)1 Australia:s 2$e lar'est cities are spen"in' W13(7 billion on "esalination plants capable of sucking millions of gallons of sea&ater from the surrounding oceans every day, removing the salt and yielding potable JDI13 117 BeBo Lab Water Af &ater. 5n t&o years, &hen the last plant is scheduled to be up and running, #ustralia/s maAor cities &ill dra& up to F percent of their &ater from the sea. Lon' ter& costs &a*e it 2nanciall) in#easible Eart!al* 7+13 O2an .cean ;esalination 1olve the WorldNs Water 1hortageV,P httpKGGenvironment.about.comGodGbiodiversityconservationGaGdesalination.htm #ccording to the non-pro@t 7ood b Water Watch, "esalinate" ocean %ater is t!e &ost expensi$e #or& o# #res! %ater out t!ere1 'i$en t!e in#rastructure costs o# collectin'1 "istillin' an" "istributin' it( !e 'roup reports t!at1 in t!e U(S(1 "esalinate" %ater costs at least 2$e ti&es as &uc! to !ar$est as ot!er sources o# #res! %ater. 1imilar high costs are a big hurdle to desalination e3orts in poor countries as &ell, &here limited funds are already stretched too thin. JDI13 113 BeBo Lab Water Af NNA DAsLL JDI13 11D BeBo Lab Water Af A Spen"in' !e entire US<S bu"'et is un"er 1(7 billion an" onl) W3+ &illion o# t!at is "e"icate" to %ater , t!e ;resi"ent !as alrea") inclu"e" so&e &easures to a""ress cli&ate !)"rolo'ical "ata , t!e af:s increase is a "rop in t!e buc*et( US<S in 13 (OPresident/s 24! :1)1 0udget Proposal 1trengthens 1cience,P ;ept of 5nterior, :1)1- httpKGG&&&.usgs.govGne&sroomGarticle.aspV5;_F99E" President .bamaNs @scal year (06@ 7+1D bu"'et re.uest #or t!e U(S( <eological Survey is W1(1HO billion, an increase o# WGF(F &illion above the 242 enacted level, re>ecting the #dministrationNs commitment to scienti@c research and development as the foundation for innovation, socio-economic &ell-being, environmental sustainability, and sound decisionmaking. %his includes science to support the safe and responsible development of domestic energy, protect critical &ater resources and ecosystems, respond to natural disasters, and advance our understanding and resilience to the e3ects of climate change.\ %he propose" 24! US<S bu"'et priorities inclu"e studying energy resources and environmental issues- a"$ancin' %ater &onitorin' an" a$ailabilit) researc!- supporting the nation&ide streamgage net&ork- improving the capacity to $uickly and e3ectively respond to natural ha?ards- providing information needed to protect priority ecosystems- and enhancing climate change research that is user-focused to address speci@c needs of natural resource managers across the landscape.\ S%he :1)1 prides itself in providing relevant and reliable Carth science, and our range of speciali?ed e(pertise makes us a leader in supporting the PresidentNs focus on research and development,S said acting :1)1 ;irector 1u?ette Kimball. S1tarting &ith science is the foundation for making decisions that ensure the safety of our <ation and a robust and resilient economy. %he proposed budget supports programs that are uni$ue to the :1)1, ultimately enhancing understanding of our land, its resources, and potential ha?ards that face us.S\ Proposed :1)1 key increases are summari?ed belo&. 7or more detailed information on the PresidentNs proposed 24! budget, visit the :1)1 0udget, Planning, and 5ntegration &ebsite.\ <e& Cnergy 7rontier\ %o ensure a robust and secure energy future for the <ation, President .bama emphasi?es an Sall-of-the-aboveS strategy, and the :1)1 has an important contribution in each component of that strategy. Proposed funding increases totaling `!. million &ill support the e(ploration of geothermal resources on 7ederal lands as &ell as research to support mitigation of the impacts of &ind energy on &ildlife. # total of `46.E million, an increase of `4F. million, &ill support interagency science collaboration bet&een the :1)1, the ;epartment of Cnergy, and the Cnvironmental Protection #gency to understand and minimi?e potential adverse environmental, health, and safety impacts of shale gas development through hydraulic fracturing.\ Water\ #s competition for &ater resources gro&s, so does the need for better information about &ater $uality and $uantity. 7unding in the 24! proposed budget includes an increase o# WO(7 &illion to #un" more than ! strea&'a'es that &ould enhance the ability to monitor high priority sites sensitive to drought, >ooding, and potential climate change e3ects. %he budget also inclu"es W77(I &illion #or WaterSMA8, an initiative focused on a sustainable &ater strategy to address the <ationNs &ater challenges. Water1M#B% includes the combined e3orts of the :1)1 and the 0ureau of Beclamation. JDI13 11I BeBo Lab Water Af JDI13 11H BeBo Lab Water Af ;olitics ;ata sharing is historically supported to build relations D We support data sharing &ith the C: &ith much more sensitive information Arc!ic* IM71 Kristin, 1pecialist in Curopean #3airs, O:.1.-C: 2ooperation #gainst %errorism,P httpKGG&&&.fas.orgGsgpGcrsGro&GB122F.pdf U(S( an" EU o9cials assert t!at considerable pro'ress !as been &a"e in ne'otiatin' a D;;A1 inclu"in' on pro$isions relate" to "ata securit), the transparency of data processing, maintaining the $uality and integrity of information, and oversight. +o&ever, some controversial issues remain, including purpose limitation, retention times, and redress. Many C: o=cials and MCPs insist that European citi5ens nee" t!e ri'!t o# /u"icial re"ress in t!e Unite" StatesB so&e experts belie$e t!at t!e EU %ill li*el) pus! #or t!e U(S( ;ri$ac) Act o# 1GOD to be a&en"e" to exten" /u"icial re"ress to EU citi5ens (currently, the :.1. Privacy #ct limits Audicial redress to :.1. citi?ens and legal permanent residents". :.1. e (perts doubt that the .bama #dministration &ould agree to this potential C: demand, given that 2ongress &ould probably not be inclined to pass such an amendment to the Privacy #ct. !e A"&inistration !as lon' &aintaine" t!at EU citi5ens &a) see* re"ress concernin' U(S( 'o$ern&ent !a n"lin' o# personal in#or&ation through agency administrative redress or Audicial redress through other :.1. la&s, such as the :.1. 7reedom of 5nformation #ct. Anot!er possible point o# contention in U(S(-EU ne'otiations &a) be %!et!er or not t!e D;;A s!oul" be applie" retroacti$el) to pre$ious U(S( -EU "ata s!arin' arran'e&ents( 1ome C: leaders and MCPs support its retroactive application. +o&ever, the :nited 1tates opposes doing so, arguing that it &ould create unnecessary legal unce rtainty. %he member states and the Curopean Parliament must ultimately approve any eventual :.1.-C: ;PP# for it to take e3ect. F9