Southeast Asia has been experiencing dynamic

growth in recent years and is seen to continue to

grow in the future. Such growth will have impli-
cations on transportation demand and ultimately,
its externalities such as transport CO2 emissions.
A long-term study of such impacts and pathways
towards mitigating these is much needed for the
region.

Clean Air Asia and the Institution for Transport
Policy Studies (ITPS),
1
conducted a study on
Long Term Action Plan for Low Carbon
Transport in ASEAN that looked into the possi-
bility of reaching a globally equalized target of
0.33 tons CO2/capita emissions for transporta-
tion and recommend specific action plans con-
taining nationally-appropriate mitigation policy
packages, implementation timelines and indica-
tive performance targets that need to be achieved
in order to reach the lowest possible tons per
capita levels in 2050. The study looked into the
period between 2005 to 2050, and included the
following modes: road, rail, air and water.

The study utilized the principles of the visioning
& backcasting, wherein trend breaking anal-
yses were incorporated by taking into considera-
tion societal images which influence the for-
mation of the transportation images in the future.
The sections below describes the salient points
that were considered in the primary societal fac-
tors such as population growth, urbanization
rates and economic status.
LONG-TERM ACTION PLANS FOR
LOW CARBON TRANSPORT IN SOUTHEAST ASIA
INTRODUCTION
In 2050, there will be 785.4 million people in the
region. This means that an additional 4.99 million
people will be added in the region per year lead-
ing up to 2050.The population in the ASEAN
countries will be growing at an average annual
growth rate of 0.75%. 42% of the additional pop-
ulation (2005-2050) will be in Indonesia, 31%
will be from the Philippines. Laos and the Philip-
pines are highest in terms of expected long-term
population growth rates at 1.35%.

Thailand is the only country that is expected to
have a negative population growth rate leading
up to 2050 at -0.13%. The region will be moving
towards becoming ageing societies. 17% of the
total population will be 65 and above (136.9 mil-
lion) in 2050.
POPULATION GROWTH
Fig.1: Population (000s)
Source: United Nations, 2012
1 The Philippines country study was conducted by the University of the Philippines National Center for Transportation Studies, headed by Dr. Jose Regin Regidor; the Indonesia
country study was conducted by the Indonesia Transportation Society (MTI/ITS) headed by Dr. Danang Parikesit.
In 2050, 66% of the population will be in urban areas, totaling around 519.5 million peo-
ple. The urban population growth rate in the region will outpace general population
growth at 1.83% per annum. Cambodia will be the only country that will have a predomi-
nantly rural population in 2050 (38%), even if it is expected to have the highest rate of
growth in terms of urbanization (3.3% per annum).
URBANIZATION
ECONOMIC STATUS
The projections for the GDP per capita in
this study mainly utilized base historical
rates (World Bank, 2013), projections for
economic growth (ADBI, 2012) and popula-
tion projections (United Nations, 2012) from
external sources.The GDP per capita values
were particularly important in projecting
transportation activity and vehicle ownership
in the business-as-usual scenario. Gompertz
functions which correlated historical data on
vehicle ownership with historical data on
GDP/capita were utilized in projecting road
JULY 2014
vehicle ownership values for each of the
countries.

In 2050, the weighted average GDP per
capita will be at 14,132 USD. This means
on average, the GDP per capita will in-
crease almost 10-fold in the region from
2005-2050.In terms of expected long term
growth rates, Myanmar leads the countries
as it is expected to growth at an annual rate
of 8.42% leading up to 2050, followed by
Laos at 6.21%.
MOTORIZATION RATES
The economic growth projections were also
utilized in projecting transport activity for
the other modes such as rail and air, and en-
ergy and CO2 emissions for water
transport.In 2005, it was estimated that there
were 89.9 million vehicles in the region. 11.6
million of these were passenger cars, while
65.6 were motorcycles (including 3-
wheelers). The weighted average for 4-
wheeled vehicles/1000 people is 43.33, while
the motorcycles/1000 is 117.Brunei had the
highest 4-wheeler motorization rate at 448
vehicles/1000, followed by Malaysia at 299
vehicles/1000.Malaysia was also highest in
the 2-wheeler motorization rate at 271 mo-
torcycles/1000 people, followed by Vi-
etnam at 189 motorcycles/1000 people. In
2050, it is estimated that there will be 510
million vehicles in the region, 124 million
will be cars, while 305 million will be mo-
torcycles.
Fig.2: % Urban Population (2005 and 2050)
Source: United Nations, 2011
RACE TOOL FACTSHEET JULY 2014
The motorization rates will be at 378 4-wheelers/1000 people and 388 motorcycles/1000 people (weighted aver-
age) in 2050. Brunei is still seen to be the highest in terms of 4-wheelers/1000 people at 815. Vietnam will be
experience motorcycle saturation at 550 per 1000 people (based on the highest existing saturation limits in the
worldTaiwan).
Fig.3: Road Vehicle Population (2005 and 2050)
Source: Calculated
Fig.4: Vehicle Motorization Indexes : Vehicle/1000 people (2005 and 2050)
Source: Calculated
The business-as-usual scenario is defined in the
study as the scenario that takes into considera-
tion the impacts of the current policies in place
in future emissions as well as the trends in ve-
hicle ownership and transport activity. The
BAU postulates that the transport CO2 in the
region will grow at an annual average of 3.3%.
The total CO2 emissions in 2050 is 822 million
CO2 EMISSIONS: BUSINESS-AS-USUAL SCENARIO
JULY 2014
tons. This means that the 2050 transport CO2
will grow 4.36-fold as compared to 2005.

In terms of % contribution, 4-wheeled passen-
ger vehicles are estimated to contribute 46%
of the CO2 emissions in 2050 under the BAU
scenario.Trucks (light and heavy duty) will
contribute 23% of the CO2 emissions in BAU
2050. Motorcycles will contribute 14%.
Fig.5: Total Transport CO2 Emissions: BAU (thousand tons CO2 )
Source: Calculated
JULY 2014
The following selected policy packages for the
countries were applied (or assumed to have
higher adoption rates)into the analysis to esti-
CO2 EMISSIONS: ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
mate the emission reduction potential in 2050
and comprised basis for the alternative scenar-
io.
The total CO2 emissions in the alternative 2050
scenario is 286.7 million tons, 65% lower than
the BAU 2050 value. This means that transport
CO2 emissions would have to be limited to a
0.9% annual growth up to 2050. The scenario
calls for negative growth rates for car emis-
sions (-1.2%) and heavy-duty trucks (-1.1%).
Higher growth rates for emissions from buses
(2.9%), rail-passenger (5.3%) and rail-freight
(9.1%) will be needed as the scenario shifts
substantial passenger and freight activity to-
wards these modes.

The alternative scenario shows that the
weighted CO2 emissions per capita in 2050
can be reduced to 0.47 tons/capita (from 1.36
in the BAU 2050 scenario). However, this is
still above the target of 0.33 tons/capita target.
The simulations have shown that the marginal
effort towards lowering the emissions/capita
further becomes much higher as the target of
0.33 is approached. The countries would need
to find much more innovative ways (and look
at more stringent targets for existing policies),
if such a level of per capita emissions will be
reached amidst the rapid economic develop-
ment in the future.
Table 1: Summary of Policies Applied
JULY 2014
Fig.6: Total Transport CO2 Emissions: Alternative Scenario (thousand tons CO2)
Source: Calculated
AVOID POLICIES CANNOT BE AVOIDED
ANYMORE
The reductions in CO2 emissions in the simula-
tions are largely attributed to the avoidance of
travel (passenger -kilometers, ton-kilometers).
However, the review of the existing policy
pipelines reveals that the avoid policies are
not being paid much attention in the countries
as these are generally avoided due to their com-
plexity.

SHIFT ATTENTION
Secondary and tertiary cities should be given
attention as there will be the main areas of
growth leading up to 2050. Currently, policies,
financial assistance through development aid
are much concentrated on the primary urban
areas and not enough attention is given to the
smaller cities. In terms of the transportation sub
-sectors, there is a need now to shift more at-
POLICY MESSAGES
tention to freight transport as given its current
and future contributions to the emissions, it is
not being paid much attention in terms of pol-
icies.

IMPROVE LEVELS OF ENGAGEMENT
The solution to moving towards low emis-
sions transport may not only lie within the
transport sector. Stakeholders who within the
realms of related fields such as urban plan-
ning, housing, environment, energy, (among
others), need to be taken in on board, particu-
larly if visioning exercises for future transpor-
tation systems are to be conducted in the
countries. Vertical integration is also needed.
Provincial governments and local government
units must be part of the process as implemen-
tation of transportation interventions are nor-
mally devolved into the local governments.

JULY 2014
One of the objectives of the project is to devel-
op tools that can be used by policymakers in
the region in assessing different long-term in-
terventions towards low carbon transport in
their own countries. The study provides in-
sights into what types of policies can be adopt-
ed, but ultimately, the project team would like
the governments to adopt the processes and the
said tools. Two main tools are available for
download with default data for 10 Southeast
Asian countries: a) the visioning tool; b) the
backcasting tool.
TOOLS FOR DOWNLOAD
The Visioning Tool was developed to inte-
grate key societal factors in the determination
of long-term policy packages for mitigating
transport CO2 emissions. The Backcasting
Tool was also developed as the primary tool
for simulating the baseline CO2 emissions as
well as the impacts of transport
CO2 mitigation policy packages. Both tools
are MS excel-based spreadsheet tools that are
free-of-charge. Please see the link below.

For any questions, please email al-
vin.mejia@cleanairasia.org
cleanairinitiative.org/portal/lpadownload
Fig.7: Visioning and Backcasting Tools (Scope)