Radioactive iodine ablation does not prevent recurrences in
patients with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma Hye Jeong Kim, Na Kyung Kim, Ji Hun Choi, Se Won Kim, Sang-Man Jin, Sunghwan Suh, Ji Cheol Bae, Yong-Ki Min, Jae Hoon Chung and Sun Wook Kim Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea Summary Objective Although papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) has a favourable long-term prognosis, disease recurrence after initial treatment remains a problem and controversy exists regarding the role of radioactive iodine (RAI) ablation in PTMC. We performed this study to evaluate the effect of RAI ablation on disease recurrence in patients with PTMC. Patients and Methods Between 1994 and 2004, 2579 patients underwent thyroid surgery for thyroid cancer at Samsung Medi- cal Center. Among these patients, 704 patients with PTMC pre- sumed disease-free after initial treatment were followed up for disease recurrence (median, 64 months; range, 1185 months). Patients with PTMC with microscopic extrathyroidal extension, cervical lymph node metastases or multifocality were considered to be in the intermediate-risk group for recurrence. Results Disease recurrence was found in six patients at a med- ian of 29 months (range, 1070 months) after initial treatment; all six patients with recurrent tumours had received RAI treat- ment after total thyroidectomy. Disease-related mortality was not observed, even after recurrence. Based on a Cox regression model considering the standardized inverse probability of treat- ment weight (IPTW) within each propensity score stratum of patients with a similar likelihood of having received RAI abla- tion, the likelihood ratio for recurrence did not differ between the RAI ablation group and no RAI group (P = 017). When we performed a subgroup analysis considering only patients with PTMC at intermediate-risk for recurrence, RAI ablation again did not have a signicant effect on recurrence (P = 079). Conclusions Radioactive iodine ablation after total thyroidec- tomy in low- and intermediate-risk patients with PTMC did not prevent recurrent tumours. Future randomized, controlled, mul- ticenter prospective trials involving a larger sample of patients followed-up for a longer duration are warranted to conrm our ndings. (Received 9 July 2012; returned for revision 4 August 2012; nally revised 3 September 2012; accepted 3 September 2012) Introduction The incidence of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC), dened as a papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) with a maximal diameter of 1 cm or less by the World Health Organization (WHO), 1 has increased rapidly in recent years. 2 This increase in incidence is due largely to increased detection of small nonpal- pable nodules by thyroid ultrasound and other imaging modali- ties such as computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging and 18 F-uorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography scan- ning. 3,4 Because the clinical signicance of these incidentally detected PTMCs is not well established, the rapid rise in the incidence of these carcinomas has issued controversies in man- agement strategies. Although the vast majority of patients with PTMC have an excellent prognosis, disease recurrence after initial treatment does occur. Moreover, some studies have demonstrated that the prevalence of aggressive tumour features and disease recur- rence of PTMC are similar to those found in PTCs larger than 1 cm. 5,6 According to recent American 7 and European 8 man- agement guidelines for patients with thyroid cancer, selective use of radioactive iodine (RAI) ablation is recommended in tumours of any size with microscopic extrathyroidal extension and/or cervical lymph node metastasis. For patients who have multifocal cancer with all foci <1 cm and no higher risk fea- tures, RAI ablation appears not to prevent recurrence. 9,10 Although microscopic extrathyroidal extension, 11,12 cervical lymph node metastasis 9,10,13 and multifocality 3,9,10 are associ- ated with an increased recurrence rate, it remains unclear whether RAI ablation in PTMC patients with these risk factors reduces recurrence. We designed this study to determine whether RAI ablation after total thyroidectomy inuences the risk of recurrence in patients with PTMC, especially patients at low to intermediate- risk for recurrence. Correspondence: Sun Wook Kim, Division of Endocrinology and Metab- olism, Samsung Medical Center, #50 Irwon-dong, Gangnam-gu, 135-710 Seoul, Korea. Tel.: (82)10 9933 1653; Fax: (82)2 3410 3849; E-mail: swkimmd@skku.edu 614 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd Clinical Endocrinology (2013) 78, 614620 doi: 10.1111/cen.12034 Patients and methods Study population Between October 1994 and December 2004, 2579 patients underwent thyroid surgery for thyroid cancer at Samsung Medi- cal Center. Institutional review board approval for this study was obtained. Patient charts were reviewed to collect the follow- ing data: demographic information such as gender, age at diag- nosis; extent of surgery; various histological parameters including primary tumour size, extrathyroidal extension and cer- vical lymph node involvement [absence of lymph node metasta- sis (N0), presence of central lymph node metastasis (N1a), presence of lateral lymph node metastasis (N1b)]; distant metas- tasis; RAI therapy and accumulated RAI doses; and clinical out- come at the last follow-up. For multifocal tumours, the diameter of the largest tumour focus was taken as the primary tumour size. Tumour-node-metastasis (TNM) staging was based on the UICC/AJCC 7th edition. 14 Of 2417 patients who had PTCs, 963 (40%) had PTMCs. Among 963 PTMCs, 711 patients underwent total thyroidectomy. Seven patients were excluded from the analysis because one patient had distant metastasis at the time of PTMC diagnosis and six patients had macroscopic extrathy- roidal invasion, which is a high risk factor for disease recur- rence. Thus, data from a total of 704 patients who were considered disease-free after initial therapy were analysed (Fig. 1). Disease-free was dened as patients who had undergone grossly complete resection of their tumours and who had no imaging evidence of tumours regardless of serum thyroglobulin (Tg) levels. Patients were classied as low risk or intermediate- risk according to the risk of recurrence. Low-risk patients were dened as follows: complete tumour resection, no extrathyroidal extension, no cervical lymph node metastasis and no distant metastasis. Patients who had PTMC with microscopic extrathy- roidal extension, cervical lymph node metastases or multifocality were considered to be at intermediate-risk of recurrence. Management strategy Total thyroidectomy with or without RAI ablation and TSH suppression therapy by levothyroxine were the initial therapies considered. Completion thyroidectomy that was performed within 3 months of the initial surgery was also classied as total thyroidectomy. Our candidate criteria for RAI ablation in patients with PTMC was the presence of any of the following: extrathyroidal extension, cervical lymph node involvement or multifocality. However, nal decision on RAI ablation was made by attending physicians and patient preference. TSH suppression therapy was maintained to achieve a serum TSH level below 05 mU/l. All patients were followed by clinical examination, Fig. 1 Flow chart of the study population. 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd Clinical Endocrinology (2013), 78, 614620 Radioactive iodine ablation in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma 615 assessment of serum Tg levels and Tg antibodies, and ultrasound of the neck every 6 months for 2 years, and annually thereafter. In the presence of a signicantly elevated level of Tg and/or Tg antibodies, recurrent tumours were searched for using various imaging modalities, and histological proof was obtained when necessary. Study end-points Tumour recurrence was dened as when a patient who initially met the criteria for remission was later found to have new evidence of a recurrence, and these recurrences were all pathologically proved. The criteria for remission were no clini- cal or imaging evidence of tumours and serum Tg levels lower than 2 ng/ml during TSH suppression and stimulation in the absence of interfering antibodies. Biochemical persistent disease was dened as when a patient did not meet the crite- ria for remission throughout the documented observation xperiod without clinical or imaging evidence of tumours. Bio- chemical evidence of persistent disease with Tg level higher than 2 ng/ml only without evidence of pathologically proven disease after initial treatment was not considered to indicate recurrence. Statistical analysis Age at diagnosis and primary tumour size were expressed as means (SD) or medians (25th, 75th percentile), and differ- ences between groups were compared using the independent- sample Students t-test or KruskalWallis test as appropriate. Group comparisons of categorical variables were made using the chi-square test or, for small cell values, Fishers exact test. Results of categorical data were summarized using frequencies and percentage values. The specic therapy examined in our analysis was postoperative RAI for remnant ablation vs no RAI in patients who underwent total thyroidectomy. The outcomes of all patients with follow-up data were considered in the anal- ysis of disease recurrence. Recurrence-free survival curves were estimated using KaplanMeier estimation and were compared using the log-rank test. Due to the potential impact of bias in the selection of patients for RAI therapy in this observational study, the standardized inverse probability of treatment weight (IPTW) was calculated using the probability of receiving RAI (propensity score). 15,16 The propensity score was estimated using a logistic regression model that included gender, age, tumour size, extrathyroidal invasion, cervical lymph node metastasis and multifocality of the tumour at presentation. The goodness of t of the propensity score was calculated to deter- mine whether the model discriminated well between patients who received RAI ablation and those who did not, thus balanc- ing covariates that might have inuenced outcomes. We analy- sed the data with a Cox regression model considering IPTW. Likelihood ratio statistics were calculated. The Efron method was used due to tied recurrence times. Statistical analyses were executed using SAS version 9.1.3 (SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA). A P-value <005 was considered statistically signicant. Results Baseline clinicopathologic features of patients with PTMC We evaluated 704 patients with PTMC who were not considered at high risk of recurrence, that is, no evidence of macroscopic extrathyroidal extension or distant metastasis at the time of study entry. The median follow-up duration in all patients with PTMC was 64 months (range, 1185 months), and 65 months (1153 months) in intermediate-risk group, specically. The clinicopathologic characteristics of these patients are summarized in Table 1. Among the 704 patients, 631 (90%) were women and 73 were men. The mean (SD) age was 47 (11) years (range, 1775 years), and 56% of the patients were older than 45 years at the time of diagnosis. The median (25th, 75th percentile) tumour size was 06 (05, 08) cm (range, 0110 cm). Thirty- two percentage of patients had multifocal tumours, and 46% of patients had tumours with microscopic extrathyroidal extension. Cervical LN metastasis was noted in 168 patients (24%), and N1a and N1b were 120 (17%) and 48 (7%), respectively. Sixty- three percentage of patients were classied as having stage I dis- ease, 23% as having stage III disease and 14% as having stage IV disease. Two hundred twenty-four patients (32%) were identi- Table 1. Baseline clinicopathological characteristics of patients with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma at initial diagnosis Characteristic n = 704 Female gender 631 (90%) Age (years) 47 11 Age 45 394 (56%) Primary tumour size (cm) 06 (05, 08) Multifocality 228 (32%) Extrathyroidal invasion 326 (46%) Cervical LN metastasis N1a 120 (17%) N1b 48 (7%) TNM staging Stage I 443 (63%) Stage III 160 (23%) Stage IV 101 (14%) Risk of recurrence Low risk 224 (32%) Intermediate-risk 480 (68%) RAI therapy No RAI 126 (18%) <100 mCi 333 (47%) 100 mCi 245 (35%) Disease status at last follow-up Remission 617 (88%) Recurrence 6 (1%) Biochemical persistence 81 (11%) Death of thyroid cancer 0 (0) RAI, radioactive iodine. Data are presented as weighted numbers (percentage), means (SD), or medians (25th, 75th percentile) as appropriate. 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd Clinical Endocrinology (2013), 78, 614620 616 H. J. Kim et al. ed as having a low risk of recurrence, and 480 (68%) were identied as having an intermediate-risk of recurrence. Of 704 patients, 126 did not undergo RAI ablation. Three hundred thirty-three patients (333/704, 47%) received <100 mCi of RAI after total thyroidectomy, while 245 (245/704, 35%) received more than 100 mCi RAI after total thyroidectomy. At last fol- low-up, six patients (1%) had disease recurrence, and 81 (11%) had biochemical persistent disease. Comparison of patient characteristics according to RAI To assess the likelihood of receiving RAI ablation based on clini- copathologic features, we compared the clinicopathologic char- acteristics of the patients according to whether they received RAI ablation or not (Table 2). Among all patients with PTMC (n = 704), 578 patients (82%) received RAI ablation after total thyroidectomy, and 126 (18%) did not receive RAI after total thyroidectomy. A larger median PTMC size (P = 0008), multifocality (P < 00001), extrathyroidal extension (P < 00001), cervical lymph node involvement (P < 00001) and advanced TNM stage (P < 00001) were associ- ated with an increased likelihood of receiving RAI in all patients with PTMC. When we focused on intermediate-risk patients (n = 480), RAI ablation was performed in 450 patients with PTMC (94%). The patients who received RAI generally had a more advanced TNM stage than those who did not receive RAI (P = 004). However, demographic and pathologic data other than the TNM stage did not differ between patients who received RAI and those who did not. Effect of RAI ablation on recurrence During follow-up, disease recurrence after initial treatment occurred in six patients at a median of 29 months (range, 1070 months). Their characteristics are shown in Table 3. All recurrences were localized to the thyroid bed or regional neck nodes, and none of these patients developed distant metastases during follow-up. Unexpectedly, all patients with recurrent tumours had previously received RAI ablation. However, dis- ease-related mortality was not observed. The recurrence-free survival curve for intermediate-risk patients who received RAI and those who did not was not sig- nicantly different (P = 052, Fig. 2). Based on a Cox regression model considering IPTW within each propensity score stratum of patients with a similar likelihood of having received RAI abla- tion, the likelihood ratio for recurrence did not differ signi- cantly between the no RAI and RAI ablation groups in any of the patients with PTMC (P = 017, Table 4). Moreover, there was no signicant difference in the likelihood ratio for recur- rence between intermediate-risk patients who received RAI and intermediate-risk patients who did not receive RAI (P = 079, Table 4). Discussion In our cohort of 704 patients with PTMC, only six (08%) developed disease recurrence and no disease-related mortality was observed. The risk of recurrence did not differ signicantly between those patients who received RAI after total thyroidec- tomy and those who did not. In subgroup analysis of patients with intermediate-risk PTMCs, there was also no difference in Table 2. Clinicopathologic features of intermediate-risk patients with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma according to radioactive iodine therapy Characteristic All (n = 704) P 1 -value Intermediate-risk (n = 480) P 2 -value No RAI (n = 126) RAI (n = 578) No RAI (n = 30) RAI (n = 450) Female gender 110 (87%) 521 (90%) NS 27 (90%) 406 (90%) NS Age (years) 47 12 47 11 NS 43 13 47 11 NS Age 45 74 (59%) 320 (55%) NS 12 (40%) 252 (56%) NS Primary tumour size (cm) 06 (04, 07) 06 (05, 08) 0008 06 (05, 07) 07 (05, 08) NS Multifocality 15 (12%) 213 (37%) <00001 15 (50%) 213 (47%) NS Extrathyroidal extension 19 (15%) 307 (53%) <00001 19 (63%) 307 (68%) NS Cervical LN metastasis N1a 3 (2%) 117 (20%) <00001 3 (10%) 117 (26%) NS N1b 3 (2%) 45 (8%) 3 (10%) 45 (10%) TNM stage Stage I 112 (89%) 331 (57%) <00001 22 (73%) 213 (47%) 004 Stage III 7 (6%) 153 (26%) 6 (20%) 153 (34%) Stage IV 7 (6%) 94 (16%) 2 (7%) 84 (19%) RAI, radioactive iodine; LN, lymph node; NS, not signicant. Intermediate-risk patients with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma were dened as patients who had any of the following: microscopic extrathyroidal extension; cervical lymph node metastases; multifocality. Data are presented as numbers (percentage), means (SD) or medians (25th, 75th percentiles) as appropriate. Age at diagnosis was compared by the independent-sample Students t-test. Primary tumour size was analysed using the MannWhitney U-test. Group comparisons of categorical variables were performed using the chi-square test or, for small cell values, Fishers exact test. 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd Clinical Endocrinology (2013), 78, 614620 Radioactive iodine ablation in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma 617 the likelihood ratio for recurrence according to RAI ablation therapy. Our study specically focused on intermediate-risk PTMCs, which we dened as a tumour(s) with any of the fol- lowing characteristics: microscopic extrathyroidal extension, cer- vical lymph node metastases or multifocality, for which conicting or inadequate data have previously been reported in the literature. This question remains important because of the rapid increase in the incidence of PTMCs. Microscopic extrathyroidal extension, 11,12 cervical lymph node metastasis 9,10,13 and/or multifocality 3,9,10 are known to be associ- ated with an increased incidence of recurrence. Some studies reported that the incidence of microscopic extrathyroidal exten- sion, cervical lymph node metastasis and/or multifocality in PTMC was similar to that in PTCs larger than 1 cm, and these authors proposed that PTMCs should be treated like PTCs larger than 1 cm. 5 The reported prevalence of microscopic extrathyroi- dal extension varies, but has been reported in up to 32% of patients with PTMC. 13,17 Cervical lymph node metastasis was noted in about 2243% of patients, 5,9,10,13 and multifocality was discovered in 2356% of patients with PTMC. 5,9,10,13 Similarly, we found that 24% of patients with PTMC had cervical lymph node metastasis and 32% had multifocality. The frequency of microscopic extrathyroidal extension in our study was 46%, which is higher than the value reported in previous studies. 13,17 However, ATA and ETA guidelines do not recommend for or against RAI ablation after surgery in patients with PTMC with microscopic extrathyroidal extension and/or cervical lymph node metastasis. 7,8 Furthermore, RAI ablation is not recommended for patients with multifocal PTMC in the absence of other higher risk features in the ATA guidelines. 7 The dilemma that clinicians face when deciding among therapeutic options for PTMC is compounded by the lack of prospective randomized trials. Some retrospective studies that support the use of RAI as adjuvant therapy have showed a signicant reduction in the rates of disease recurrence in patients with PTMC. 13,18 However, recent data have brought the efcacy of RAI in patients with PTMC into doubt. Ross et al. 10 described their experiences in a group of 611 patients with PTMC. They found that multifocality and nodal metastasis were common and were associated with recurrence. However, RAI ablation did not reduce the incidence of recurrence in patients with multifocal tumours or patients with cervical lymph node involvement. Hay et al. 9 reported that higher recurrence rates in PTMC patients with multifocal tumours as well as node-positive patients. However, neither more extensive surgery nor RAI ablation reduced the recurrence rates compared with unilateral lobectomy. Pelizzo et al. 19 evalu- ated a group of 403 patients with PTMC and found no signi- Table 3. Summary of clinicopathologic data of the six patients with recurrence No. Sex Age (year) Size (cm) No. of tumours ETE N staging TNM staging RAI therapy Site of recurrence 1 F 35 07 1 No N1a I Yes Thyroid bed 2 F 38 07 1 Yes N1a I Yes Thyroid bed + Nodes a 3 F 42 06 2 Yes N0 I Yes Nodes a 4 F 43 08 4 Yes N1a I Yes Nodes a 5 M 56 09 3 Yes N1b IV Yes Thyroid bed 6 F 38 07 2 Yes N1a I Yes Nodes a ETE, extrathyroidal extension; N staging, cervical lymph node metastasis; RAI, radioactive iodine; N0, absence of lymph node metastasis; N1a, presence of central lymph node metastasis; N1b, presence of lateral lymph node metastasis. a Cervial lymph node recurrence was found in the lateral compartment. Fig. 2 KaplanMeier estimate of recurrence-free survival in intermediate- risk patients with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma stratied according to radioactive iodine (P = 052). Table 4. The impact of radioactive iodine (RAI) ablation on disease recurrences according to RAI RAI effect P-value All (n = 704) 017 Intermediate-risk (n = 480) 079 Due to the potential impact of bias in selecting patients for RAI therapy in this observational study, the standardized inverse probability of treat- ment weight was calculated using the probability of receiving RAI (pro- pensity score). The propensity score was estimated by a logistic regression model that included gender, age, tumour size, extrathyroidal invasion, cervical lymph node metastasis and multifocality of tumour at presentation. We analysed the data by Cox regression analysis using inverse probability of treatment weight. Likelihood ratio statistics were used for the test. The Efron method was used due to tied recurrence times. 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd Clinical Endocrinology (2013), 78, 614620 618 H. J. Kim et al. cant difference in recurrence between patients treated by total thyroidectomy alone and those treated by both total thyroidec- tomy and RAI ablation. Lin and Bhattacharyya 20 also demon- strated that there was no thyroid cancer-specic survival benet from the use of RAI therapy in PTMC patients without evidence of locoregional or distant disease when compared with the out- comes of a similar group of patients who did not receive RAI. In the intermediate-risk patients with PTMC evaluated in this study (patients with tumours with microscopic extrathyroidal extension, cervical lymph node metastasis and/or multifocality), RAI ablation did not lower the risk of recurrence. Moreover, all recurrences (n = 6) were local in nature and occurred in patients who had undergone RAI ablation after total thyroidectomy. We performed Cox regression analysis using the IPTW propensity score due to the possibility of patient selection bias for the use of RAI ablation. According to this rather com- plex statistical analysis, RAI ablation did not provide a signi- cant advantage with regard to preventing disease recurrence in patients with PTMC; our data support the nding of several previous studies 9,10,19,20 that RAI ablation does not result in superior outcomes for small tumours. In addition, all recur- rences were localized to the thyroid bed or regional neck nodes, and none of the patients developed distant spread during fol- low-up. Therefore, we believe that postoperative follow-up by neck ultrasound, measurement of serum Tg levels and TSH sup- pressive hormonal therapy without RAI ablation is an adequate strategy for the management of patients with PTMC who are at low to intermediate-risk for recurrence. Postsurgical administration of RAI is increasingly being used to destroy any remaining thyroid remnants after total thyroidec- tomy to facilitate follow-up 21 or to destroy any remaining microscopic cancer cells. 7 Although the risk of subsequent can- cer from a single dose of RAI administration is low, it is not zero. 22,23 Preparation for RAI treatment requires either with- drawal of thyroid hormone or injection of recombinant human thyrotropin, as well as a 2-week low-iodine diet, which decreases quality of life. Furthermore, when the patient is treated, precau- tions have to be taken to reduce the radiation exposure of family members and the public. Finally, after treatment, there could be transient or permanent impairment of the salivary and lacrimal glands. 24,25 Considering the expected excellent outcome in patients with PTMC, we consider it reasonable to limit RAI to patients with high risk features such as macroscopic extensions or distant metastases. Our study has some limitations. First, this study is retrospec- tive analysis and consequently suffers from the inherent limita- tion of bias in selection of patients for RAI ablation, which could serve as confounding factors in evaluating treatments effects of RAI ablation. Thus, we adopted the standardized IPTW in analysing the effect of RAI ablation on disease recur- rence. The IPTW method based on the propensity score is the approaches utilized to adjust for confounding variables between binary treatment groups and is a powerful method for use with observational data. 15,16 To test the statistical power of this study, we calculated the difference in 10-year recurrence-free survival rate according to RAI and estimated 95% condence interval for the difference. The calculated difference in 10-year recurrence- free survival rate according to RAI was 18%, and the 95% con- dence interval for the difference was (03%, 39%). So, we could conclude that our data were adequately powered. Second, only six patients developed a recurrent tumour, and analysis of disease-specic survival was not possible because there was no disease-related death in this study subjects. Despite these caveats, we believe that our ndings can inform the management of patients with PTMC after surgery and serve as a legitimate basis for future prospective studies. In summary, our data suggest that patients with PTMC have an excellent prognosis even if there is microscopic extrathyroidal extension, cervical lymph node metastasis and/or multifocality. Postoperative RAI ablation in low- to intermediate-risk patients with PTMC does not prevent disease recurrence. Future pro- spective, randomized, controlled, multicenter trials with a larger sample of patients and a longer follow-up duration are required to conrm our ndings. Disclosure The authors have no competing interests to disclose. References 1 Hedinger, C., Wiliams, E.D. & Sobin, L.H. (1988) Histologic Typ- ing of Thyroid Tumors. 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