Market Outlook Snapshot Equity benchmarks continued the buoyant mood and ended the pre-Diwali trading session on a strong note buoyed by a rally in global markets and positive momentum from the reform measures announced by the government. The benchmarks posted nominal gains in the special one hour Muhurat Trading session on Thursday to begin Samvat 2071 on a positive note. The BSE Sensex posted cumulative gains of 271 points or 1.02% combining Wednesday and Thursdays up move while the NSE Nifty posted a cumulative gain of 87 points or 1.09% to settle at 8014. Broader markets outperformed the benchmarks on Wednesday as well as in the Muhurat session as the BSE midcap and small cap indices posted cumulative gains of 2% and 2.5%, respectively Days action The Nifty posted a second strong gap up opening on Wednesday led by strong global cues and, thereafter, consolidated in a narrow range between 7975 and 8000. The index reclaimed the psychologically important 8000 peak in the Muhurat session to begin Samvat 2071 on an optimistic note. All major sectoral indices closed in the green on Wednesday as well as in Thursdays session. Gains were led by the Auto index that rose 3% on Wednesday followed by capital goods, healthcare and consumer durables indices that rose 1-2% The price action formed a Doji candle on Wednesday as the index remained rudderless after a strong open. It carries a 47 point strong bullish gap below its base between 7974 and 7927. Meanwhile, Thursdays session resulted in a small bodied candle with yet another bullish gap below its base between 7995 and 8008 Structurally speaking The Nifty continued to ride the renewed positive momentum in Wednesdays trade and extended gains in the one hour Muhurat trading session on Thursday. The index has formed three bullish gaps in four trading sessions during the truncated week, which highlights the revival of bullish momentum after the recent correction. The strong market breadth also reflects a buoyant sentiment. We believe the index has signalled resumption of the upward momentum after concluding a healthy corrective phase at last weeks low of 7723. We expect the index to challenge its recent life-time high of 8180 in the short-term The index completely recouped its previous three weeks fall (8031 to 7723) in just over three trading sessions to signal a faster retracement of its last falling segment. Further, the current pullback (291 points) is the largest since the index entered a corrective phase after hitting the life-time high of 8180, which indicates bulls are regaining the upper hand after a brief pause As highlighted in earlier editions, the current decline was seen as counter trend correction within the larger uptrend. The last up move from August low of 7540 to September high of 8180 consumed just 19 sessions. Meanwhile, the index took 25 sessions to retrace the preceding rise by about 61.8%. Larger time wise correction and limited price correction form the key ingredients of a healthy corrective phase and highlight the overall positive price structure Oscillators Among oscillators, the 14 period RSI is in rising trajectory after generating a positive crossover above its nine period average and indicates continuance of upward momentum in the coming sessions Intraday - strategy The index is set to open on a flat to positive note tracking mixed global cues. Create intraday longs in the range of 8010-8020 for upside towards 8060 with a protective stop loss of 7990 Domestic Indices Indices Close Change Change% S&P BSE Sensex 26851.05 271.77 1.02 CNX Nifty 8014.55 86.80 1.09 Nifty future 8023.85 79.60 1.00 S&PBSE 500 10254.70 139.11 1.38 S&PBSE Midcap 9673.03 208.09 2.20 S&PBSE Smallcap 10662.65 283.14 2.73 *changes are inclusive of Wed & Muhurat trading
Global Indices Indices Close Change Change% Dow Jones 16805.41 127.51 0.76 Nasdaq 4483.72 30.92 0.69 FTSE 6388.73 -30.42 -0.47 DAX 8987.80 -59.51 -0.66 Hang Seng 23047.99 -268.32 -1.15 Nikkei 15372.54 82.47 0.54 SGX Nifty 8045.00 25.00 0.31 * Asian Market at 7:30 am.IST
CNX Nifty Technical Picture Nifty Intraday Short Term Trend Up Up Trend Reversal 7990 7650 Support 7990-7965 7650 Resistance 8050-8080 8200 20 Days EMA 7927 200 days EMA 7280
Momentum Picks October 27, 2014 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 2
Exhibit 1: CNX NSE Nifty Daily Candlestick Chart
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research Intraday Spot levels The Nifty spot has resistance at 8050, 8080 while support is at 7990, 7965
CNX Nifty Spot Open High Low Close 8027.70 8031.75 8008.85 8014.55
RSI is in rising trajectory after generating a positive crossover above its nine period average indicates continuation of bullish momentum 100 day SMA 80% @ 7668 Bullish gap @ 7654-7635 Gap @ 7856-7770 Three week fall reversed in just over three sessions signals faster retracement Gap @ 7974-7927 The Nifty recouped previous three weeks decline in faster time to indicate resumption of upward momentum. We expect the index to challenge its life high of 8180 in the short term ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 3 CNX Bank Nifty Futures Outlook
Days action The Bank Nifty futures surged to a record high of 16632 on Wednesday before paring gains to end on a flat note ahead of the long weekend. The index remained rudderless in the special Muhurat trading session on Thursday before finally ending at 16483 posting cumulative gains of 20 points Days action The Bank Nifty opened at a record high of 16632 on Wednesday led by global cues and renewed optimism after the reform measures announced by the government. The index pared most gains and ended flat as participants preferred to take profits after the recent strong gains The price action on Wednesday resulted in a counter attack bear candle as the index opened at a new high and later pared gains to close near the previous sessions close highlighting profit booking at record highs. Meanwhile, Thursdays one hour trading session resulted in a small bodied candle, which indicates a range bound market Structurally speaking The Bank Nifty consolidated the strong gains registered in the first two session of the week and settled at an all-time closing high of 16483 in the truncated week of trade. The index has outperformed the benchmarks as it overhauled its entire September fall in faster time. While the decline from September high of 16460 to 15180 consumed four weeks, the index vaulted to a new high of 16632 in just two weeks, which highlights the strong bullish undertone After the strong gains in the last two weeks, a round of sideways consolidation may not be ruled out. However, the overall bias remains positive and the index appears on its course towards its higher target of 16800 in the short-term being the confluence of value of the higher band of blue rising trend channel and 138.2% retracement of the September decline (16364-15180) The strong bullish gap area formed in Mondays session (15990) is likely to act as an immediate technical support for the index. The momentum will remain in favour of bulls as long as Mondays bullish gap area (15990) is held on a closing basis The Bank Nifty formed a steady base around 15200 during the recent correction and posted a faster retracement of the last falling segment, which highlights accumulation by stronger hands near the 15200 region. The overall medium-term price structure will remain positive above 15200. Only a faster retracement of the most recent rally below 15200 will signal a change of trend Oscillators Among momentum indicators, the 14-day RSI as well as MACD (E-12/26/9) remain in a rising trajectory above the respective trigger lines and signal continuance of upward momentum in the short-term. However, the overbought nature of intraday oscillators may lead to range bound price activity albeit with a positive bias in the coming sessions Intraday Future levels For the upcoming session, Bank Nifty October futures has supports at 16390, 16260 while resistances are at 16640, 16750 CNX Bank Nifty Futures
Indices Close Change change% CNX Bank Nifty 16,483.7 20.5 0.1 *changes are inclusive of Wed & Muhurat trading
CNX Bank Nifty Spot Performance Performance in % Index Current 1M 3M 6M 12M Bank Nifty 16,470.1 3.6 6.5 25.5 51.4
CNX Bank Nifty Future Technical Picture
Bank Nifty Intraday Short Term Trend Up Up Trend Reversal 16390 15500 Support 16390-16260 15500 Resistance 16640-16750 17100 20 Days EMA 15955 200 days EMA 14251
CNX Bank Nifty vs. Nifty 9500 10700 11900 13100 14300 15500 16700 2 3 - O c t 1 - O c t 1 5 - S e p 2 7 - A u g 8 - A u g 2 2 - J u l 4 - J u l 1 8 - J u n 2 - J u n 1 5 - M a y 2 8 - A p r 6500 6800 7100 7400 7700 8000 8300 Bank Nifty (RHS) NSE (LHS)
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 4
Exhibit 2: CNX Bank Nifty Generic Future Daily Candlestick Chart
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
CNX Bank Nifty Future Open High Low Close 16515.00 16555.00 16470.30 16483.65
Bank Nifty turned rudderless after surging at life high of 16632 in last weeks trade. We expect the index to head towards 16800 levels in the short term being upper band of the rising channel. Bullish gap area formed on Monday at 15990 is likely to act as immediate technical support for the index RSI is seen trending up firmly within positive territory supporting bullish bias 15996 15750 14405 14755 89-day EMA 16364
15180 Gap @ 16190-15990 MACD is in rising trajectory after generating a bullish crossover above its 9 period average ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 5 Trend Scanner
Positive Trends
Scrip Name Close % Change 10-day SMA Delivery (%) Colgate-Palmolive India Ltd 1722.60 0.66 1707.30 59.07 Network 18 Media & Investments Ltd 50.25 5.60 48.04 63.83 SKF India Ltd 1142.75 3.04 1114.20 92.83 Cipla Ltd/India 628.45 3.30 593.94 51.92 LIC Housing Finance Ltd 343.50 1.77 324.79 52.51 *Positive Trends as of Wednesday
Overbought Stocks Oversold Stocks
Stocks rising for 5 days & stochastic overbought Stocks falling for 5 days & stochastic oversold Scrip Name LTP Stochastic Scrip Name LTP Stochastic Oriental Bank 263.2 85.84 Berger paint 361 9.9 Axis Bank 425 94.6 CESC 674.8 17.81 *Overbought/Oversold as of Wednesday
Candlestick Patterns
Bullish Candlestick Formations Bearish Candlestick Formations Bullish Engulfing Bearish Engulfing Scrip Name Close Scrip Name Close Coromandel 300.7 PTC 86.5 Bullish Continuation pattern Bearish Continuation pattern ACC 1483.5 Havells 273.4 Bajaj Auto 2529.7 Divis Lab 1811.0 Tata Chemical 409.8 Tata Motors 515.7 Morning Star Patel Engineering 90.7 * Candlestick Pattern based on price action of Wedensday
Note: For Candlestick pattern description please refer towards end of the report.
Stocks hitting 52 week high Scrip Name LTP HeroMotocorp 3110.05 Ingersoll rand 841.5 Maruti 3165.5 Raymond 508.7 Tata Metaliks 170.7 Tube Investment 355.6 *52 week high of Thursday
Sectoral Indices Performance Sector Close Points Chg % Change Auto 18025.56 4.67 0.03 Banks 18857.52 34.78 0.18 BSE Small Cap 10662.65 158.5 1.51 Capital Goods 15139.90 83.40 0.55 Consumer Durables 9659.41 43.67 0.45 FMCG 7420.21 34.75 0.47 Healthcare 13921.69 78.86 0.57 IT 10156.75 13.87 0.14 Metals 11306.88 34.13 0.30 Mid Cap 9673.03 97.20 1.02 Oil & Gas 10798.05 73.47 0.69 Power 2082.81 2.19 0.11 PSU 8086.55 29.96 0.37 Real Estate 1488.69 2.61 0.18
Sectoral Indices - Monthly Performance (%) -9.5 -3.5 -3.0 -2.3 -1.2 -0.7 -0.5 0.9 1.0 2.3 2.4 2.6 3.1 4.7 -14 -4 6 Real Estate Metals IT FMCG BSE Small Cap Consumer Durables Oil & Gas Auto Mid Cap PSU Power Healthcare Capital Goods Banks ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 6 Market Activity Report
Nifty Heat Map IDFC 146.3 JSPL 0.8% 1,525.7 HCL Tech Grasim Ind 0.8% 3.5% 0.6% Ambuja Cement ITC 161.9 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% NMDC 350.4 Bajaj Auto 2,529.7 RIL 2,433.3 1.3% Ultratech 952.7 0.7% Cairn India Ranbaxy HUL 597.5 Lupin Bank of Baroda 289.1 Reliance Infra 0.1% 165.8 3,418.7 1.4% 0.2% 759.0 0.3% 217.6 ICICI Bank TCS 2,465.4 Hindalco Bharti Airtel 0.1% 0.5% 2,578.6 SBI 410.3 0.2% BPCL 0.2% 1,263.7 0.2% 889.2 691.1 0.1% 1,390.9 0.2% 1,575.4 M&M 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 149.3 146.7 NTPC Dr Reddy Sun Pharma 0.2% 0.3% 3,805.1 403.5 1.0% 0.6% Asian Paints ONGC 3,057.7 1,483.5 652.5 ACC 1.3% Tata power JP Asso. PNB L&T Infosys 896.5 0.2% 934.6 HDFC Bank Tata Steel 1,558.5 459.1 810.1 0.5% 0.4% -0.5% -0.2% 3,110.1 HDFC Ltd 240.4 Tata Motors 628.5 0.1% Coal India 515.7 -0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 352.3 1,031.6 88.1 0.2% 30.1 0.1% Power Grid 683.7 139.9 0.0% 0.0% Cipla 579.6 0.0% Indusind Bank 423.8 Kotak Bank GAIL 481.7 1,061.6 -0.3% -0.1% Sesa Goa Axis Bank -0.4% -0.2% BHEL 248.9 3,165.5 Maruti Hero Moto -0.4% -0.2% 120.0 DLF -0.7%
Exchange Cash Turnover (| crore) 1 7 , 4 0 0 1 7 , 0 0 6 1 5 , 8 1 8 1 6 , 2 9 3 1 4 , 2 9 4 2 , 6 0 0 3 , 2 3 5 3 , 0 9 6 3 , 4 0 8 3 , 1 1 3 2 , 6 1 8 6 , 5 0 7 0.00 8,000.00 16,000.00 24,000.00 1 6 - O c t 1 7 - O c t 2 0 - O c t 2 1 - O c t 2 2 - O c t 2 3 - O c t NSE Cash BSE Cash
Global Currencies Spot Close Prev.close % Chg Rupee (|) 61.280 61.320 0.06 Dollar Index 85.575 85.732 -0.17 Euro 1.269 1.267 0.17 British Pound 1.610 1.609 0.07 Japanese Yen 107.990 108.160 0.17 Australian ($) 0.881 0.879 0.14 Swiss Franc 0.951 0.952 0.15
Global Treasury Yields
Closing Yield (%) Previous Yield (%) India 10 year 8.36 8.36 US 10 Year 2.28 2.27 EURO 10 Year 0.89 0.90 GBP 10 Year 2.23 2.24 JPY 10 Year 0.46 0.47
Commodities US Dollar
Close Prev. Close %Chg Gold/ounce 1231.73 1231.01 0.04 Copper /ton 6762 6752 0.12 Brent Crude/barrel 85.78 86.13 -0.41
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research A falling channel breakout and price bounced back taking support at the 34 days EMA in the daily chart signalling continuation of positive trend in the short term Divis Laboratories (DIVLAB) October Future
CMP 1816.85 Comment : Action : Targets : 1841/1855/Higher Stop-loss : 1802.00 Falling channel breakout in the daily chart and price bounced back taking support at the 34 days EMA and RSI giving buy signal in the daily chart Buy in the range of 1815.00-1817.00
RSI giving buy signal and has recently given a bullish crossover above its nine periods average in the daily chart 34 days EMA ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research Tata Chemicals (TATCHE) October Future
CMP 410.35 Comment : Action : Targets : 418/422/Higher Stop-loss : 406.50 A trendline breakout and price taking support at the 34 days EMA and MACD giving buy signal in the daily chart Buy above 410.50
A higher high in the daily chart and a trendline breakout signalling bullish bias to continue in the short term
MACD has given a buy signal moving above signal line in the daily chart 34 days EMA ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 9
Exhibit 5: Tata Global (TATTEA) Daily Candlestick Chart
Source: Bloomberg , ICICIdirect.com Research Tata Global (TATTEA) October Future
CMP 158.10 Comment : Action : Targets : 161.00/162.50/Higher Stop-loss : 156.50 Price bounced back taking support at the previous low and 200 days SMA and a trendline breakout joining previous highs in the daily chart and bullish crossover in 14 periods RSI in daily chart Buy in the range of 157.75-158.30
Price bounced back taking support near previous low and 200 days SMA in the daily chart and a trendline breakout joining immediate highs signalling reversal of trend after recent corrective price action A bullish crossover of the 14 periods RSI above its nine periods average thus validates positive trend in price 200 days SMA ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 10
Previous Days Performance Scrip Product Strategy Recommended Price Targets SL Gain/Loss %* Comment IDFC Future Buy above 146 149/150.5/+ 144.50 0.40 Closed at 146.70 Hindustan Unilever Future Buy In range of 750-752 761/766/+ 745.00 1.30 Target 1 achieved IRB Future Buy above 244 249/251.5/+ 241.50 1.40 Closed at 247.50 Just Dial Future Sell below 1642 1621/1612/- 1655.00 0.20 Closed at 1638 * Return Opportunity
Stock profits: Avg 0.83% per trade (Cum. Profits over last 130 days:156.25%)
Strike Rate for the day: 4/4 (Cum strike rate over 130 days: 164/289
Note: The follow-up and performance review table of the strategies indicates the profit opportunity that was available in the strategies. Individual profits may vary, depending upon the entry and exit price and stop losses.
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 11 Derivative Comments On the Muhurat trading day, the Nifty traded with a positive bias and managed to add another 20 points. Nifty futures premium declined and settled at 9 points. India VIX fell 1.29% and settled at 12.86 FIIs sold | 13 crore while DIIs bought | 11 crore in the cash segment. FIIs bought | 751 crore in index futures and | 992 crore in index options. In stock futures, they sold | 109 crore The highest Put base is at the 7900 strike with 58 lakh shares while the highest Call base is at the 8100 strike with 65 lakh shares. The 8100 and 8200 Calls witnessed addition of 1.73 and 6.90 lakh shares, respectively. The 8100 and 8000 Put strikes saw addition of 2.75 and 22.20 lakh shares, respectively Stock Analysis
OI addition: We saw long build-up in Maruti, Bajaj Auto, GAIL, Voltas India and Kotak Mahindra Bank while short build-up was seen in ONGC, Havells India, Sun TV, M&M Finance and India Oil Corporation OI shedding: We saw short covering in IDBI, Cairn India, Sesa Sterlite, Infosys and L&T whereas long closure was seen in TVS Motors, SKS Micro, Coal India, Power Grid and PFC
1 6 . 4 1 6 . 6 1 6 . 6 1 7 . 3 1 7 . 4 1 7 . 5 1 6 . 5 1 6 . 0 1 5 . 9 1 5 . 7 1 7 . 2 1 8 . 1 1 9 . 0 1 9 . 7 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 2 9 - S e p 3 0 - S e p 1 - O c t 7 - O c t 8 - O c t 9 - O c t 1 0 - O c t 1 3 - O c t 1 4 - O c t 1 6 - O c t 1 7 - O c t 2 0 - O c t 2 1 - O c t 2 2 - O c t O I
I n
m i l l i o n 7700 7800 7900 8000 8100 8200 8300 Nifty F utures O I Nifty F ut P rice (R HS)
Nifty Active Strikes Strike O I chg % IV (% ) O I chg % IV (% ) 7700 -19.01 11.57 -24.53 14.57 7800 -29.48 11.19 -22.27 12.90 7900 -26.41 10.92 0.79 11.46 8000 -27.38 10.97 88.91 10.64 8100 2.74 11.00 34.30 9.57 C all (% ) P ut (% ) OI Gainers Symb o l O I(L o ts) % C h P r i ce % C h g MAR UT I 2381875 16.68 3,189.3 3.46 O NG C 25516000 14.90 401.2 -2.03 HAVE L L S 4875000 13.67 268.7 -3.76 SUNT V 2487000 13.25 311 -0.18 BAJAJ-AUT 1674000 12.61 2506.35 3.47
OI Losers Symbo l O I(L o ts) % C h g P r i ce % C h g T VSMO T O R 3876000 -10.61 255.8 -1.50 SK SMIC R O 3219000 -5.30 316.1 -0.39 IDBI 21596000 -5.05 67.1 1.28 C AIR N 14977000 -3.75 288.8 3.40 SSL T 18696000 -3.58 249.9 0.28
Please execute the recommendation within the levels provided in the report Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the report Avoid entering into the recommendation in the first 5 min of trade If the recommendation opens near the target levels due to gap up/gap down opening, then the recommendation is considered not initiated The recommendations are valid only for the day and should be squared off by the end of the day. Only stocks in derivatives segment have been considered for daily trading. Medium to long-term prospects of a stock does not have any bearing on the daily view. Trading Portfolio allocation It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical research products. Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment. Within each product segment it is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation. For example: The Momentum Picks product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation
Techno Funda 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 10% and above 15% and above 6 Months
Technical Breakout 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 10% and above 15% and above 3-6 Months
Cash in Hand 10% - - - - -
100%
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 18 Candlesticks Glossary: Candlestick patterns describe the market sentiment for the specified period. Some of the formations suggest reversal of sentiment (trend) and, therefore, are important for a chart reader. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. More importance needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend
Bullish Engulfing Line: A potential bottom reversal pattern. This pattern typically appears at the culmination of a decline or downtrend. The market falls, and a black candle forms (ideally a small black candle). Next, a white real body wraps around the prior sessions black body. Low of the pattern becomes short term support for prices
Piercing Line: Potential bottom reversal pattern. A black body forms in the downtrend. The market continues moving south on the next sessions open but that session culminates in a white real body that closes (e.g. pierces) than half way or more into the prior black body. Lowest low between two candles is referred to as technical support for prices
Hammer: A candlestick line which, during a downtrend, has a very long lower shadow and small real body (black or white) at the top end of the sessions range. There should be no, or a very small, upper shadow. Pattern suggests buying support during declines and needs confirmation in terms of sustainability of prices above head of the Hammer in following session
Bearish Engulfing Line: Potential top reversal signal. This two candlestick pattern emerges during a rally. A black candle real body wraps around a white real body (classically a small white candle) Highest high between two candles becomes resistance level for prices for future reference
Dark Cloud cover: A dark cloud cover forms a top reversal pattern. The first session should be a strong, white real body. The second sessions price opens over the prior sessions high (or above the prior sessions close). By the end of the second session, it closes near the low of the session and should fall well into the prior sessions white body. Pattern suggests that market has a poor chance of rising immediately
Shooting Star: A single candlestick line during a rally in which there is a small real body (white or black) at the bottom end of the session's range and a very long upper shadow. The candle line should also have little or no lower shadow. Pattern suggest the trouble for prices overhead
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 19
Pankaj Pandey Head Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC Andheri (East) Mumbai 400 093 research@icicidirect.com
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