Instructor: Dr. Arif Iqbal Rana Email: arif@lums.edu.pk Room # SDSB Room # 4 Telephone: 042-3560-8028 Office Hours: by appointment Secretary/TA Hafiz Abdul Basit
COURSE OVERVIEW Rationale: Yes: a great portion of management is skillful decision-making. And as one moves into higher ranks of management, especially in large organizations; this skill needs to move beyond gut feel. Decision-making needs to be shared in teams. It needs clearer processes that can be repeated, especially as part of systems, and/or applied to high risk- return decisions. This skill needs to be trained to be efficient, yet accurate, within practical constraints. Methodology: Problem-solving skills multiplied by intense modeling practice builds ones ability to generate useful insights in the face of limited time and resource constraints. Thus our approach focuses on taking the decision maker through real-world model-building and analysis. The initial phase of this course is dedicated to skill-building focused on spreadsheet engineering. Once the power of spreadsheets has been demonstrated, specialized simulation and decision analysis techniques are introduced.
LEARNING OUTCOMES
Upon completion of the course, students should be able to: 1. Enhanced problem definition and analysis skills through formal methods such as influence charts. 2. General ability to use currently available computer-based spreadsheet tools to improve shared business decision-making. 3. Understand available quantitative techniques such as decision trees and simulation in order to model risk-related decisions.
MBA PROGRAM LEARNING GOALS & OBJECTIVES
1. Leadership and teamwork: Students will be able to assume leadership roles, perform
MBA PROGRAM LEARNING GOALS & OBJECTIVES leadership tasks responsibly, and work effectively in teams. 2. Functional, integrative and strategic abilities: Students will demonstrate understanding of the functional and strategic aspects of business and management, be able to integrate across functional areas, and develop feasible strategies and action plans. 3. Critical thinking and decision making: Students will be able to identify key problems, collect and use information critically, and generate viable alternatives and solutions. 4. Global perspective and flexibility: Students will demonstrate understanding of global and multi-cultural perspectives within the local context and be able to work effectively in multi-cultural settings. 5. Social, ethical, economic and environmental responsibility: Students will be able to understand the broader ramifications of their decisions and assess the impact of economic, ethical, environmental factors on the policies, strategies and operations of the organization. 6. Effective communication: Students will be able to communicate clearly and persuasively in writing and verbally, in ways appropriate for a variety of objectives and audiences. 7. Entrepreneurialism and innovativeness: Students will be able to create, identify, assess, shape and act on opportunities in a variety of contexts and organizations. 8. Managing pressures, complexities and uncertainties: Students will be able to manage pressures and resource constraints, and think, decide and act in complex and ambiguous situations.
Indicate below how the course learning objectives specifically relate to any program learning goals and objectives.
Program Learning Goals and Objectives Course Learning Objectives Course Assessment Item Goal 1 Leadership and Teamwork Not directly related to the course objectives. However, teamwork in project work is encouraged. Not directly assessed Goal 2 Functional, integrative and strategic abilities This is the main objective of the course. Nos. help different functions talk to each other.
Goal 3 Critical Thinking Decision making capabilities The other main objective is process based decision making.
Goal 4 Global perspective and flexibility Not directly related to the course objectives. Not directly assessed Goal 5 Social, Ethical, Economical and Not directly related to the course objectives. However, Not directly assessed
Indicate below how the course learning objectives specifically relate to any program learning goals and objectives. Environmental Responsibility being ethical is encouraged. Goal 6 Communication competency Students have multiple opportunities to demonstrate their ability to communicate effectively (#7) CP and Group Project Goal 7 Entrepreneurialism and innovativeness Not directly related to the course objectives. However, innovative solutions are encouraged. Not directly assessed Goal 8 Managing pressures, complexities and Uncertainties The course has a lot of pressure. It is aimed at handling uncertainty quantitatively. CP, Quizzes, Assignments, Project, and Exam
COURSE ASSESSMENT/GRADES The course grade is based on the following criteria:
Basis of Evaluation % of Total Class Participation 40 Quizzes and Assignments 10 Group Project/WAC 20 Final Examination 30 Total 100
Class Participation: Guidelines to scoring CP: Though it is traditionally called class participation and is competitively graded, perhaps a better word is Class Contribution. We believe that when we pool together the minds of many it produces greater learning than could individual effort. To enable this (and to protect against losing these learning opportunities), we provide some guidelines for CP scoring. There are two prerequisites for effective participation. The first is thorough preparation, while the second is active listening. One of the following six grade ranges are recorded as Class Participation for each student in each session: 1 or 2 Absent, or was engaged in crosstalking or whispering during the session. 0 Late, no participation, or was unprepared for the session. 0.5 A few basic case facts only. 1.5 Case wellprepared. 2.5 Preparation + Active listening (challenge someone's analysis) 3.5 Preparation + Active listening + Helped other students learn.
COURSE ASSESSMENT/GRADES 4.5 Added to my learning.
Quizzes There will short surprise quizzes usually given at the beginning of the class. Their purpose is to determine the extent to which you have analyzed the case and/or reading assigned for the class. These quizzes could also test comprehension of material related to the previous class.
Final Examination: Four hours; open books, open notes
CLASS-MANAGEMENT POLICY
RECOMMENDED TEXTBOOKS/SUPPLEMENTARY READINGS ( if Applicable)
Textbook: For Spreadsheet Modeling [P&B] = Management Science: The Art of Modeling with Spreadsheets, 3rd edition by Stephen G. POWELL and Kenneth R. BAKER, Wiley: 2010.
REQUIREMENTS (FOR PCO OFFICE)
Midterm Exam: Yes/No: If yes please specify the format ( e.g. if closed book/closed notes or open book/open notes etc.) Final Exam: Yes/No: If yes please specify the format ( e.g. if closed book/closed notes or open book/open notes etc.) Double Session: Yes/No: If yes then which session(s): Joint Session (combined of two sections): Yes/No: If yes then which session(s): Simulation: Yes/No: If yes, then which session(s): Type of simulations (Harvard etc.) must also be mentioned.
Video Recording: Yes/No: If yes, then which session(s): IT Lab sessions Yes/No: If yes, then which session(s): Additional session or review session Yes/No: If yes, then after which session(s): Course Cap (applicable for elective courses) Standard Cap in an Elective Course is 50
Please mention if you would like to cap the course at a number other than 50: Yes/No: If yes, then what should be the cap?: Any other requirement (e.g. laptop/computer etc.): Yes/No: If yes, what requirement: And in which session(s):
Session No. SESSION TOPIC/TITLE OF CASE READING MATERIAL SESSION OUTCOME(S) At the end of the session, students will be able to Module 1 Introduction Session 1 Topic: Process Based Decision Making Case: Professors Car Choice 1. Even Swaps: a rational method of making tradeoffs 1. Skim: Powell & Baker, Ch. 1 "Introduction" (1.11.4) 1. Gut-feel v. system based decision making 2. OCTROUI Framework 3. Even Swaps 4. Overview of course Module 2 Decision Making with Quantifiable Tradeoffs
Session 2 Topic: Inventory Decisions Case: Saadia Rolling Mills
1. A Note on Production Inventories 1. EOQ 2. Making tradeoffs 3. Intro. to Spreadsheets Session 3 Topic: Introduction to Spreadsheet Based Modeling Case: Projecting Telenor Pakistan Profits 1. P&B Ch 2, pp. 26-343; 2. Ch. 5; 3. Ch. 4 (just in case) 1. Appreciate formal modeling via influence charts 2. Understand parameters 3. Parts of a problem Session 4 Topic: Equity Market Indexes and Asset Management Companies (Mutual Funds) Case: Sapphire Dairies (Pvt) Ltd. (A): Where did the business plan go wrong? P&B Ch. 6 1. Sensitivity analysis 2. Optimization analysis
Module 3 Decision Making with Uncertainty
Session 5 Topic: Critical Fractile Method Case: L. L. Bean, Inc.: Item Forecasting & Inventory Management
1. The Critical-Fractile Method of Inventory Planning 1. The Newsboy Problem Session 6 Topic: Decision Analysis Case: Maqsood Sugar Farms