I

INTRODUCTION
Global Warming, increase in the average temperature of the atmosphere, oceans, and landmasses of
arth! The planet has "armed #and cooled$ man% times during the &!'( billion %ears of its histor%! )t
present arth appears to be facing a rapid "arming, "hich most scientists believe results, at least in part,
from human activities! The chief cause of this "arming is thought to be the burning of fossil fuels, such as
coal, oil, and natural gas, "hich releases into the atmosphere carbon dio*ide and other substances +no"n
as greenhouse gases! )s the atmosphere becomes richer in these gases, it becomes a better insulator,
retaining more of the heat provided to the planet b% the ,un!
The average surface temperature of arth is about -(.C #(/.0$! Over the last centur%, this average has
risen b% about 1!' Celsius degree #- 0ahrenheit degree$! ,cientists predict further "arming of -!& to (!2
Celsius degrees #3!( to -1!& 0ahrenheit degrees$ b% the %ear 3-11! This temperature rise is e*pected to
melt polar ice caps and glaciers as "ell as "arm the oceans, all of "hich "ill e*pand ocean volume and
raise sea level b% an estimated / to -11 cm #& to &1 in$, 4ooding some coastal regions and even entire
islands! ,ome regions in "armer climates "ill receive more rainfall than before, but soils "ill dr% out faster
bet"een storms! This soil desiccation ma% damage food crops, disrupting food supplies in some parts of
the "orld! 5lant and animal species "ill shift their ranges to"ard the poles or to higher elevations see+ing
cooler temperatures, and species that cannot do so ma% become e*tinct! The potential conse6uences of
global "arming are so great that man% of the "orld7s leading scientists have called for international
cooperation and immediate action to counteract the problem!
II
T8 GRN8OU, 00CT
The energ% that lights and "arms arth comes from the ,un! 9ost of the energ% that 4oods onto our
planet is short:"ave radiation, including visible light! When this energ% stri+es the surface of arth, the
energ% changes from light to heat and "arms arth! arth;s surface, in turn, releases some of this heat as
long:"ave infrared radiation!
9uch of this long:"ave infrared radiation ma+es it all the "a% bac+ out to space, but a portion remains
trapped in arth;s atmosphere! Certain gases in the atmosphere, including "ater vapor, carbon dio*ide,
and methane, provide the trap! )bsorbing and re4ecting infrared "aves radiated b% arth, these gases
conserve heat as the glass in a greenhouse does and are thus +no"n as greenhouse gases! )s the
concentration of these greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increases, more heat energ% remains trapped
belo"! )ll life on arth relies on this greenhouse e<ect="ithout it, the planet "ould be colder b% about >>
Celsius degrees #(/ 0ahrenheit degrees$, and ice "ould cover arth from pole to pole! 8o"ever, a gro"ing
e*cess of greenhouse gases in arth;s atmosphere threatens to tip the balance in the other direction=
to"ard continual "arming!
III
T?5, O0 GRN8OU, G),,
Greenhouse gases occur naturall% in the environment and also result from human activities! @% far the
most abundant greenhouse gas is "ater vapor, "hich reaches the atmosphere through evaporation from
oceans, la+es, and rivers!
Carbon dio*ide is the ne*t most abundant greenhouse gas! It 4o"s into the atmosphere from man% natural
processes, such as volcanic eruptionsA the respiration of animals, "hich breathe in o*%gen and e*hale
carbon dio*ideA and the burning or deca% of organic matter, such as plants! Carbon dio*ide leaves the
atmosphere "hen it is absorbed into ocean "ater and through the photos%nthesis of plants, especiall%
trees! 5hotos%nthesis brea+s up carbon dio*ide, releasing o*%gen into the atmosphere and incorporating
the carbon into ne" plant tissue!
8umans escalate the amount of carbon dio*ide released to the atmosphere "hen the% burn fossil fuels,
solid "astes, and "ood and "ood products to heat buildings, drive vehicles, and generate electricit%! )t the
same time, the number of trees available to absorb carbon dio*ide through photos%nthesis has been
greatl% reduced b% deforestation, the long:term destruction of forests b% indiscriminate cutting of trees for
lumber or to clear land for agricultural activities!
Ultimatel%, the oceans and other natural processes absorb e*cess carbon dio*ide in the atmosphere!
8o"ever, human activities have caused carbon dio*ide to be released to the atmosphere at rates much
faster than that at "hich arth;s natural processes can c%cle this gas! In -B(1 there "ere about 32-
molecules of carbon dio*ide per million molecules of air #abbreviated as parts per million, or ppm$! Toda%
atmospheric carbon dio*ide concentrations are >'2 ppm, "hich re4ects a >- percent increase!
)tmospheric carbon dio*ide concentration increases b% about -!( ppm per %ear! If current predictions
prove accurate, b% the %ear 3-11 carbon dio*ide "ill reach concentrations of more than (&1 to /B1 ppm!
)t the highest estimation, this concentration "ould be triple the levels prior to the Industrial Revolution,
the "idespread replacement of human labor b% machines that began in @ritain in the mid:-2th centur% and
soon spread to other parts of urope and to the United ,tates!
9ethane is an even more e<ective insulator, trapping over 31 times more heat than does the same
amount of carbon dio*ide! 9ethane is emitted during the production and transport of coal, natural gas, and
oil! 9ethane also comes from rotting organic "aste in landClls, and it is released from certain animals,
especiall% co"s, as a b%product of digestion! ,ince the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the mid:
-B11s, the amount of methane in the atmosphere has more than doubled!
Nitrous o*ide is a po"erful insulating gas released primaril% b% burning fossil fuels and b% plo"ing farm
soils! Nitrous o*ide traps about >11 times more heat than does the same amount of carbon dio*ide! The
concentration of nitrous o*ide in the atmosphere has increased -B percent over preindustrial levels!
In addition, greenhouse gases are produced in man% manufacturing processes! 5er4uorinated compounds
result from the smelting of aluminum! 8%dro4uorocarbons form during the manufacture of man% products,
including the foams used in insulation, furniture, and car seats! Refrigerators built in some developing
nations still use chloro4uorocarbons as coolants! In addition to their abilit% to retain atmospheric heat,
some of these s%nthetic chemicals also destro% arth;s high:altitude oDone la%er, the protective la%er of
gases that shields arth from damaging ultraviolet radiation! 0or most of the 31th centur% these chemicals
have been accumulating in the atmosphere at unprecedented rates! @ut since -//(, in response to
regulations enforced b% the 9ontrEal 5rotocol on ,ubstances that Deplete the ODone Fa%er and its
amendments, the atmospheric concentrations of man% of these gases are either increasing more slo"l% or
decreasing!
,cientists are gro"ing concerned about other gases produced from manufacturing processes that pose an
environmental ris+! In 3111 scientists identiCed a substantial rise in atmospheric concentrations of a ne"l%
identiCed s%nthetic compound called tri4uorometh%l sulfur penta4uoride! )tmospheric concentrations of
this gas are rising 6uic+l%, and although it still is e*tremel% rare in the atmosphere, scientists are
concerned because the gas traps heat more e<ectivel% than all other +no"n greenhouse gases! 5erhaps
more "orrisome, scientists have been unable to conCrm the industrial source of the gas!
IG
9),URING GFO@)F W)R9ING
)s earl% as -2/' scientists suggested that burning fossil fuels might change the composition of the
atmosphere and that an increase in global average temperature might result! The Crst part of this
h%pothesis "as conCrmed in -/(B, "hen researchers "or+ing in the global research program called the
International Geoph%sical ?ear sampled the atmosphere from the top of the 8a"aiian volcano 9auna Foa!
Their instruments indicated that carbon dio*ide concentration "as indeed rising! ,ince then, the
composition of the atmosphere has been carefull% trac+ed! The data collected sho" undeniabl% that the
concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are increasing!
,cientists have long suspected that the global climate, the long:term average pattern of temperature, "as
also gro"ing "armer, but the% "ere unable to provide conclusive proof! Temperatures var% "idel% all the
time and from place to place! It ta+es man% %ears of climate observations to establish a trend! Records
going bac+ to the late -211s did seem to sho" a "arming trend, but these statistics "ere spott% and
untrust"orth%! arl% "eather stations often "ere located near cities, "here temperature measurements
"ere a<ected b% the heat emitted from buildings and vehicles and stored b% building materials and
pavements! ,ince -/(B, ho"ever, data have been gathered from more reliable "eather stations, located
far a"a% from cities, and from satellites! These data have provided ne", more accurate measurements,
especiall% for the B1 percent of the planetar% surface that is ocean "ater #see ,atellite, )rtiCcial$! These
more accurate records indicate that a surface "arming trend e*ists and that, moreover, it has become
more pronounced! Foo+ing bac+ from the end of the 31th centur%, records sho" that the ten "armest
%ears of the centur% all occurred after -/21, and the three hottest %ears occurred after -//1, "ith -//2
being the "armest %ear of all!
Greenhouse gas concentrations are increasing! Temperatures are rising! @ut does the gas increase
necessaril% cause the "arming, and "ill these t"o phenomena continue to occur togetherH In -/22 the
United Nations nvironment 5rogram and the World 9eteorological OrganiDation established a panel of 311
leading scientists to consider the evidence! In its Third )ssessment Report, released in 311-, this
Intergovernmental 5anel on Climate Change #I5CC$ concluded that global air temperature had increased
1!' Celsius degree #- 0ahrenheit degree$ since -2'-! The panel agreed that the "arming "as caused
primaril% b% human activities that add greenhouse gases to the atmosphere! The I5CC predicted in 311-
that the average global temperature "ould rise b% another -!& to (!2 Celsius degrees #3!( to -1!&
0ahrenheit degrees$ b% the %ear 3-11!
The I5CC panel cautioned that even if greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere ceased gro"ing
b% the %ear 3-11, the climate "ould continue to "arm for a period after that as a result of past emissions!
Carbon dio*ide remains in the atmosphere for a centur% or more before nature can dispose of it! If
greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, e*perts predict that carbon dio*ide concentrations in the
atmosphere could rise to more than three times preindustrial levels earl% in the 33nd centur%, resulting in
dramatic climate changes! Farge climate changes of the t%pe predicted are not unprecedentedA indeed,
the% have occurred man% times in the histor% of arth! 8o"ever, human beings "ould face this latest
climate s"ing "ith a huge population at ris+!
G
00CT, O0 GFO@)F W)R9ING
,cientists use elaborate computer models of temperature, precipitation patterns, and atmosphere
circulation to stud% global "arming! @ased on these models, scientists have made several predictions
about ho" global "arming "ill a<ect "eather, sea levels, coastlines, agriculture, "ildlife, and human
health!
)
Weather
,cientists predict that during global "arming, the northern regions of the Northern 8emisphere "ill heat up
more than other areas of the planet, northern and mountain glaciers "ill shrin+, and less ice "ill 4oat on
northern oceans! Regions that no" e*perience light "inter sno"s ma% receive no sno" at all! In temperate
mountains, sno"lines "ill be higher and sno"pac+s "ill melt earlier! Gro"ing seasons "ill be longer in
some areas! Winter and nighttime temperatures "ill tend to rise more than summer and da%time ones!
The "armed "orld "ill be generall% more humid as a result of more "ater evaporating from the oceans!
,cientists are not sure "hether a more humid atmosphere "ill encourage or discourage further "arming!
On the one hand, "ater vapor is a greenhouse gas, and its increased presence should add to the insulating
e<ect! On the other hand, more vapor in the atmosphere "ill produce more clouds, "hich re4ect sunlight
bac+ into space, "hich should slo" the "arming process #see Water C%cle$!
Greater humidit% "ill increase rainfall, on average, about - percent for each 0ahrenheit degree of "arming!
#Rainfall over the continents has alread% increased b% about - percent in the last -11 %ears!$ ,torms are
e*pected to be more fre6uent and more intense! 8o"ever, "ater "ill also evaporate more rapidl% from
soil, causing it to dr% out faster bet"een rains! ,ome regions might actuall% become drier than before!
Winds "ill blo" harder and perhaps in di<erent patterns! 8urricanes, "hich gain their force from the
evaporation of "ater, are li+el% to be more severe! )gainst the bac+ground of "arming, some ver% cold
periods "ill still occur! Weather patterns are e*pected to be less predictable and more e*treme!
@
,ea Fevels
)s the atmosphere "arms, the surface la%er of the ocean "arms as "ell, e*panding in volume and thus
raising sea level! Warming "ill also melt much glacier ice, especiall% around Greenland, further s"elling
the sea! ,ea levels "orld"ide rose -1 to 3( cm #& to -1 in$ during the 31th centur%, and I5CC scientists
predict a further rise of / to 22 cm #& to >( in$ in the 3-st centur%!
,ea:level changes "ill complicate life in man% coastal regions! ) -11:cm #&1:in$ rise could submerge '
percent of The Netherlands, -B!( percent of @angladesh, and most or all of man% islands! rosion of cli<s,
beaches, and dunes "ill increase! ,torm surges, in "hich "inds locall% pile up "ater and raise the sea, "ill
become more fre6uent and damaging! )s the sea invades the mouths of rivers, 4ooding from runo< "ill
also increase upstream! Wealthier countries "ill spend huge amounts of mone% to protect their shorelines,
"hile poor countries ma% simpl% evacuate lo":l%ing coastal regions!
ven a modest rise in sea level "ill greatl% change coastal ecos%stems! ) (1:cm #31:in$ rise "ill submerge
about half of the present coastal "etlands of the United ,tates! Ne" marshes "ill form in man% places, but
not "here urban areas and developed landscapes bloc+ the "a%! This sea:level rise "ill cover much of the
0lorida verglades!
C
)griculture
) "armed globe "ill probabl% produce as much food as before, but not necessaril% in the same places!
,outhern Canada, for e*ample, ma% beneCt from more rainfall and a longer gro"ing season! )t the same
time, the semiarid tropical farmlands in some parts of )frica ma% become further impoverished! Desert
farm regions that bring in irrigation "ater from distant mountains ma% su<er if the "inter sno"pac+, "hich
functions as a natural reservoir, melts before the pea+ gro"ing months! Crops and "oodlands ma% also be
aIicted b% more insects and plant diseases!
D
)nimals and 5lants
)nimals and plants "ill Cnd it diJcult to escape from or adKust to the e<ects of "arming because humans
occup% so much land! Under global "arming, animals "ill tend to migrate to"ard the poles and up
mountainsides to"ard higher elevations, and plants "ill shift their ranges, see+ing ne" areas as old
habitats gro" too "arm! In man% places, ho"ever, human development "ill prevent this shift! ,pecies that
Cnd cities or farmlands bloc+ing their "a% north or south ma% die out! ,ome t%pes of forests, unable to
propagate to"ard the poles fast enough, ma% disappear!

8uman 8ealth
In a "armer "orld, scientists predict that more people "ill get sic+ or die from heat stress, due less to
hotter da%s than to "armer nights #giving the su<erers less relief$! Diseases no" found in the tropics,
transmitted b% mos6uitoes and other animal hosts, "ill "iden their range as these animal hosts move into
regions formerl% too cold for them! Toda% &( percent of the "orld;s people live "here the% might get bitten
b% a mos6uito carr%ing the parasite that causes malariaA that percentage ma% increase to '1 percent if
temperatures rise! Other tropical diseases ma% spread similarl%, including dengue fever, %ello" fever, and
encephalitis! ,cientists also predict rising incidence of allergies and respirator% diseases as "armer air
gro"s more charged "ith pollutants, mold spores, and pollens!
GI
D@)T, OGR GFO@)F W)R9ING
,cientists do not all agree about the nature and impact of global "arming! ) fe" observers still 6uestion
"hether temperatures have actuall% been rising at all! Others ac+no"ledge past change but argue that it is
much too earl% to be ma+ing predictions for the future! ,uch critics ma% also den% that the evidence for
the human contribution to "arming is conclusive, arguing that a purel% natural c%cle ma% be driving
temperatures up"ard! The same dissenters tend to emphasiDe the fact that continued "arming could have
beneCts in some regions!
,cientists "ho 6uestion the global "arming trend point to three puDDling di<erences bet"een the
predictions of the global "arming models and the actual behavior of the climate! 0irst, the "arming trend
stopped for three decades in the middle of the 31th centur%A there "as even some cooling before the climb
resumed in the -/B1s! ,econd, the total amount of "arming during the 31th centur% "as onl% about half
"hat computer models predicted! Third, the troposphere, the lo"er region of the atmosphere, did not
"arm as fast as the models forecast! 8o"ever, global "arming proponents believe that t"o of the three
discrepancies have no" been e*plained!
The lac+ of "arming at midcentur% is no" attributed largel% to air pollution that spe"s particulate matter,
especiall% sulfates, into the upper atmosphere! These particulates, also +no"n as aerosols, re4ect some
incoming sunlight out into space! Continued "arming has no" overcome this e<ect, in part because
pollution control e<orts have made the air cleaner!
The une*pectedl% small amount of total "arming since -/11 is no" attributed to the oceans absorbing
vast amounts of the e*tra heat! ,cientists long suspected that this "as happening but lac+ed the data to
prove it! In 3111 the U!,! National Oceanic and )tmospheric )dministration #NO))$ o<ered a ne" anal%sis
of "ater temperature readings made b% observers around the "orld over (1 %ears! Records sho"ed a
distinct "arming trendL World ocean temperatures in -//2 "ere higher than the (1:%ear average b% 1!3
Celsius degree #1!> 0ahrenheit degree$, a small but ver% signiCcant amount!
The third discrepanc% is the most puDDling! ,atellites detect less "arming in the troposphere than the
computer models of global climate predict! )ccording to some critics, the atmospheric readings are right,
and the higher temperatures recorded at arth;s surface are not to be trusted! In Manuar% 3111 a panel
appointed b% the National )cadem% of ,ciences to "eigh this argument reaJrmed that surface "arming
could not be doubted! 8o"ever, the lo"er:than:predicted troposphere measurements have not been
entirel% e*plained!
GII
00ORT, TO CONTROF GFO@)F W)R9ING
The total consumption of fossil fuels is increasing b% about - percent per %ear! No steps currentl% being
ta+en or under serious discussion "ill li+el% prevent global "arming in the near future! The challenge toda%
is managing the probable e<ects "hile ta+ing steps to prevent detrimental climate changes in the future!
Damage can be curbed locall% in various "a%s! Coastlines can be armored "ith di+es and barriers to bloc+
encroachments of the sea! )lternativel%, governments can assist coastal populations in moving to higher
ground! ,ome countries, such as the United ,tates, still have the chance to help plant and animal species
survive b% preserving habitat corridors, strips of relativel% undeveloped land running north and south!
,pecies can graduall% shift their ranges along these corridors, moving to"ard cooler habitats!
There are t"o maKor approaches to slo"ing the buildup of greenhouse gases! The Crst is to +eep carbon
dio*ide out of the atmosphere b% storing the gas or its carbon component some"here else, a strateg%
called carbon se6uestration! The second maKor approach is to reduce the production of greenhouse gases!
)
Carbon ,e6uestration
The simplest "a% to se6uester carbon is to preserve trees and to plant more! Trees, especiall% %oung and
fast:gro"ing ones, soa+ up a great deal of carbon dio*ide, brea+ it do"n in photos%nthesis, and store the
carbon in ne" "ood! World"ide, forests are being cut do"n at an alarming rate, particularl% in the tropics!
In man% areas, there is little regro"th as land loses fertilit% or is changed to other uses, such as farming or
building housing developments! Reforestation could o<set these losses and counter part of the greenhouse
buildup!
9an% companies and governments in the United ,tates, Nor"a%, @raDil, 9ala%sia, Russia, and )ustralia
have initiated reforestation proKects! In Guatemala, the ), Corporation, a U!,!:based electrical compan%,
has Koined forces "ith the World Resources Institute and the relief agenc% C)R to create communit%
"oodlots and to teach local residents about tree:farming practices! The trees planted are e*pected to
absorb up to (2 million tons of carbon dio*ide over &1 %ears!
Carbon dio*ide gas can also be se6uestered directl%! Carbon dio*ide has traditionall% been inKected into oil
"ells to force more petroleum out of the ground or sea4oor! No" it is being inKected simpl% to isolate it
underground in oil Celds, coal beds, or a6uifers! )t one natural gas drilling platform o< the coast of
Nor"a%, carbon dio*ide brought to the surface "ith the natural gas is captured and reinKected into an
a6uifer from "hich it cannot escape! The same process can be used to store carbon dio*ide released b% a
po"er plant, factor%, or an% large stationar% source! Deep ocean "aters could also absorb a great deal of
carbon dio*ide! The feasibilit% and environmental e<ects of both these options are no" under stud% b%
international teams!
In an encouraging trend, energ% use around the "orld has slo"l% shifted a"a% from fuels that release a
great deal of carbon dio*ide to"ard fuels that release some"hat less of this heat:trapping gas! Wood "as
the Crst maKor source of energ% used b% humans! With the da"n of the Industrial Revolution in the -2th
centur%, coal became the dominant energ% source! @% the mid:-/th centur% oil had replaced coal in
dominance, fueling the internal combustion engines that "ere eventuall% used in automobiles! @% the 31th
centur%, natural gas began to be used "orld"ide for heating and lighting! In this progression, combustion
of natural gas releases less carbon dio*ide than oil, "hich in turn releases less of the gas than do either
coal or "ood!
Nuclear energ%, though controversial for reasons of safet% and the high costs of nuclear "aste disposal,
releases no carbon dio*ide at all! ,olar po"er, "ind po"er, and h%drogen fuel cells also emit no
greenhouse gases! ,omeda% these alternative energ% sources ma% prove to be practical, lo":pollution
energ% sources, although progress toda% is slo"!
@
National and Focal 5rograms
The developed countries are all "or+ing to reduce greenhouse emissions! ,everal uropean countries
impose heav% ta*es on energ% usage, designed partl% to curb such emissions! Nor"a% ta*es industries
according to the amount of carbon dio*ide the% emit! In The Netherlands, government and industr% have
negotiated agreements aimed at increasing energ% eJcienc%, promoting alternative energ% sources, and
cutting do"n greenhouse gas output!
In the United ,tates, the Department of nerg%, the nvironmental 5rotection )genc%, product
manufacturers, local utilities, and retailers have collaborated to implement the nerg% ,tar program! This
voluntar% program rates appliances for energ% use and gives some mone% bac+ to consumers "ho bu%
eJcient machines! The Canadian government has established the 0leetWise program to cut carbon dio*ide
emissions from federal vehicles b% reducing the number of vehicles it o"ns and b% training drivers to use
them more eJcientl%! @% 311&, B( percent of Canadian federal vehicles are to run on alternative fuels,
such as methanol and ethanol!
9an% local governments are also "or+ing against greenhouse emissions b% conserving energ% in buildings,
moderniDing their vehicles, and advising the public! Individuals, too, can ta+e steps! The same choices that
reduce other +inds of pollution "or+ against global "arming! ver% time a consumer bu%s an energ%:
eJcient applianceA adds insulation to a houseA rec%cles paper, metal, and glassA chooses to live near "or+A
or commutes b% public transportation, he or she is Cghting global "arming!
C
International )greements
International cooperation is re6uired for the successful reduction of greenhouse gases! In -//3 at the arth
,ummit in Rio de Maneiro, @raDil, -(1 countries pledged to confront the problem of greenhouse gases and
agreed to meet again to translate these good intentions into a binding treat%!
In -//B in Mapan, -'1 nations drafted a much stronger agreement +no"n as the N%Oto 5rotocol! This treat%,
"hich has not %et been implemented, calls for the >2 industrialiDed countries that no" release the most
greenhouse gases to cut their emissions to levels ( percent belo" those of -//1! This reduction is to be
achieved no later than 31-3! Initiall%, the United ,tates voluntaril% accepted a more ambitious target,
promising to reduce emissions to B percent belo" -//1 levelsA the uropean Union, "hich had "anted a
much tougher treat%, committed to 2 percentA and Mapan, to ' percent! The remaining -33 nations, mostl%
developing nations, "ere not as+ed to commit to a reduction in gas emissions!
@ut in 311- ne"l% elected U!,! president George W! @ush renounced the treat% sa%ing that such carbon
dio*ide reductions in the United ,tates "ould be too costl%! 8e also obKected that developing nations "ould
not be bound b% similar carbon dio*ide reducing obligations! The N%Oto 5rotocol could not go into e<ect
unless industrial nations accounting for (( percent of -//1 greenhouse gas emissions ratiCed it! That
re6uirement "as met in 311& "hen the cabinet of Russian president Gladimir 5utin approved the treat%,
paving the "a% for it to go into e<ect in 311(!
,ome critics Cnd the N%Oto 5rotocol too "ea+! ven if it "ere enforced immediatel%, it "ould onl% slightl%
slo" the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere! 9uch stronger action "ould be re6uired later,
particularl% because the developing nations e*empted from the N%Oto rules are e*pected to produce half
the "orld;s greenhouse gases b% 31>(! The most in4uential opponents of the protocol, ho"ever, Cnd it too
strong! Opposition to the treat% in the United ,tates is spurred b% the oil industr%, the coal industr%, and
other enterprises that manufacture or depend on fossil fuels! These opponents claim that the economic
costs to carr% out the N%Oto 5rotocol could be as much as P>11 billion, due mainl% to higher energ% prices!
5roponents of the N%Oto sanctions believe the costs "ill prove more modest=P22 billion or less=much of
"hich "ill be recovered as )mericans save mone% after s"itching to more eJcient appliances, vehicles,
and industrial processes!
@ehind the issue of cost lies a larger 6uestionL Can an econom% gro" "ithout increasing its greenhouse
gas emissions at the same timeH In the past, prosperit% and pollution have tended to go together! Can the%
no" be separated, or decoupled, as economists sa%H In nations "ith strong environmental policies,
economies have continued to gro" even as man% t%pes of pollution have been reduced! 8o"ever, limiting
the emission of carbon dio*ide has proved especiall% diJcult! 0or e*ample, The Netherlands, a heavil%
industrialiDed countr% that is also an environmental leader, has done ver% "ell against most +inds of
pollution but has failed to meet its goal of reducing carbon dio*ide output!
)fter -//B representatives to the N%Oto 5rotocol met regularl% to negotiate a consensus about certain
unresolved issues , such as the rules, methods, and penalties that should be enforced in each countr% to
slo" greenhouse emissions! The negotiators designed a s%stem in "hich nations "ith successful cleanup
programs could proCt b% selling unused pollution rights to other nations! 0or e*ample, nations that Cnd
further improvement diJcult, such as The Netherlands, could bu% pollution credits on the mar+et, or
perhaps earn them b% helping reduce greenhouse gas emissions in less developed countries, "here more
can be achieved at less e*pense! Russia, in particular, stood to beneCt from this s%stem! In -//1 the
Russian econom% "as in a shambles, and its greenhouse gas emissions "ere huge! ,ince then Russia has
alread% cut its emissions b% more than ( percent belo" -//1 levels and is in a position to sell emission
credits to other industrialiDed countries, particularl% those in the uropean Union #U$!