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[Geography] El Nino, Its Impact on Indian monsoon, Indian
Agriculture (+points from Economic survey)
Posted By On 15/08/2014 @ 9:57 pm In Geography | 58 Comments
1. Prologue
2. What happens in a Normal Year?
3. What happens in La Nina Year?
4. What happens in an El Nino year?
5. What is Southern Oscillation?
6. How does El Nino affect Indian Monsoon?
7. El Nino 2014 and India
8. Will El Nino 2014 hurt Indian GDP?
9. Do we really need to fear El Nino 2014?
1. Arguments: why we dont need to fear El Nino?
2. Arguments: why we should worry about El Nino?
10. Economic Survey Points on El-Nino
Prologue
This is an old article from Current Affairs from April Week3 (16
th
to 22
nd
). Ive updated it
further with points from Economic Survey Ch.8 on agriculture to create a separate
standalone article.
before reading further, practice following questions:
UPSC General Studies (Mains) Answer following in 200 words each.
1. (GS1) What is El Nino? How does it affect India and World?
2. (GS1) Explain in brief, the impact of La Nina on Indian monsoon
3. (GS3) Discuss the structure and functions of Biodiversity Management Committees
under Biodiversity Act 2002? Evaluate their success in India.
Interview
1. The fear about El Nino on Indian Economy is overhyped. Do you agree?
What happens in a Normal Year?
Peru Current = Humboldt Current = Cold Current.
During normal year two things are STRONG
Cold Peru Current
Trade Winds
As a result, cold water is dragged from Peru towards Australia. (observe following image)
Result of this exchange?
In above image, the red (warm) water region around Australia is called Western Pacific
Pool (WPP)
WPP = low pressure = warm air ascends = cloud formation = rain over North Australia
This air also joins walker cell and begins descending near Peru.
Descending air = anti-cyclonic condition = high pressure = stability = no cloud/rain =
Drought in Atacama Desert.
So in a way two cycles are created
below
the
water
Moving of water from
Peru to Australia.
@Peru cold water upwelling brings nutrient to surface= more
lunch for Plankton= more fishes = good for Peru fishermen.
above
water
Moving of air from
Australia towards
Peru.
Warm water + low atmospheric pressure = good rainfall over
Australia & Indonesia.
Ok, we learned what happens in Normal year. Now lets check
What happens in La Nina Year?
same things as in a normal year, but those two things become even stronger
1. Cold Peru Current
2. Trade Winds
Result?
Too many fishes @Peru coast, oversupply of fishes= prices become dirt cheap
Too much rain / flood over Australia and Indonesia.
Now coming to the main topic:
What happens in an El Nino year?
Observe following image:
two things become WEAK
1. Cold Peru Current
2. Trade Winds
As result, cold water is not dragged from Peru to Australia.
But reverse happens warm water is dragged from Australia towards Peru.
Consequently, warm water + low pressure condition develops in the Eastern Pacific
(Peru) and Cold condition + high pressure in Western Pacific (Australia).
Since Pressure is inversely related with amount of rainfall, the results are following
1. Rain & Floods @Peru, Atkama and even Southern USA
2. Drought @Northern Australia, Indonesia- even bushfires.
3. Storms and Hurricanes in East Pacific.
4. Coral bleaching (high temperature coral dies)
5. (for MCQ) El Nino decreases earths rotation rate, decreases Coriolis force and increases
length of day. (La Nina creates opposite). How? Because El Nino changes the wind
pattern, hence Earth needs change speed to conserve its angular momentum of Earth-
Atmospheric system.
What is El Nino?
Warming of Pacific Ocean
Near Western coast of Peru and Ecuador.
Occurs @every 3-4 years; [In theory, it should occur @every 12 years].
Its impact usually lasts for 9-12-18-24 months.
It weakens the trade winds and changes in Southern Oscillation, thereby affects the
rainfall pattern across the world.
What is Southern Oscillation?
Alternating of (tropical) sea level pressure
Between the eastern and western hemispheres.
We measure Southern Oscillation by observing the pressure difference between
1. Tahiti (French Polynesia) and
2. Darwin (Australia).
Impact of Southern Oscillation (SO)?
Low Index High SO
Smaller pressure difference between (tropical) oceans
of Eastern vs. Western Hemisphere
Higher pressure
difference
associated with El Nino hence the name ENSO = El Nino-Sothern
Oscillation
La Nina
Weak trade winds Strong trade winds
poor monsoon good monsoon
How does El Nino affect Indian Monsoon?
El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) water circulation happens between Australia and
Peru
But the wind movement is part of larger atmospheric circulation hence affects the
rainfaill over India. But how?
We learned that During normal year, the warm water moves towards Australia, this pool of
warm water is called Western Pacific Pool (WPP). From WPP air rises above and moves towards
two walker cells
1. Towards Peru coast = this affects rainfall in South America.
2. Towards Mascarene High Pressure zone near East Africa. = This affect Indian monsoon.
DURING NORMAL YEAR DURING EL NINO YEAR
strong WPP
strong trade winds
strong Mascarene High
weak WPP
weak trade winds
weakening of winds flowing towards Mascarene
Strong push for moisture
laden winds towards India
good rain
high
weak push to Monsoon winds towards India
Less rainfall / weak monsoon.
During La Nina years, this push is
even stronger = heavy rain and
floods.
El Nino caused severe drought in India (2009-10).
Sugar price were highest in 30 year history.
El Nino= Little boy in Spanish.
Hence its opposite is called
La Nina (little girl)
El Vejo= old man, but La Nina
more popular term nowadays.
Similar drought situation in Australia, Southeast
Asia and Africa. (And floods in Brazil and USA
Midwest.)
Such condition prevails for 9-24 months.
El Nino 2014 and India
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted below normal monsoon for 2014.
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan too has warned about the negative impact of El Nino (in
his last monetary policy press conference.)
Poor monsoon / drought like condition = commodities prices will rise especially sugar,
pulses and edible oil. Government needs to stock them up, put restriction on exports,
before black marketers start hoarding.
Farmers need to device alternate farming strategy, change the seeds and irrigation
strategy for the drought like situation.
NEED TO WORRY DONT NEED TO WORRY
Area without irrigation, and totally dependent on
monsoon.
Western India region especially oilseeds, pulses
and cotton=> high cost of raw material will have
negative impact on their manufacturing sectors
also.
Area depending on Ganga for
irrigation. Because so far
Gangas water is above its 10
year average.
Area with alternative irrigation
solutions (bore well,
watersheds, drip irrigation)
Oilseed and pulses- will have to import them.
wheat price, because FCI has
more than sufficient stock
Will El Nino 2014 hurt Indian GDP?
Merrill Lynch predicated following:
2014 (without El Nino) 2014 with El Nino
good rainfall poor rainfaill / drought like condition
inflation declines to ~7% inflation raises to ~10%
if inflation declines=> RBI will
reduce repo rate=>cheaper
loans=>more business expansion
=>more GDP.
To combat inflation, RBI will further increase REPO rate
(OR RBI will not decrease REPO Rate) => either way
expensive loans => less business expansion => low GDP
growth.
GDP growth rate will increase
2013 = 4.7%
2014 = 5.4%
low GDP growth rate
2013 = 4.7%
2014 = ~3.95%
Do we really need to fear El Nino 2014?
answer is both YES and NO.
Arguments: why we dont need to fear El Nino:
1. Only Strong El Nino affects India negatively. But this time WMO predicted Weak El
Nino.
2. Private Weather Agencies predict only 30% chance of El nino.
3. Not Every El Nino year caused drought in India in the past.
4. Under British Raj and even in 50s era, a drought under El Nino = Millions would die in
starvation and suicide because of moneylenders.
5. But thats not the same India we live in today. ~40% of the farmlands are irrigated; FCI
has large buffer stock of foodgrains; Government has sufficient money to announce
financial packages to drought hit farmers; RBI has sufficient Forex reserve to finance any
emergency food imports; we enjoy goodwill among all developed countries for even food-
aid free of cost.
6. Only IF terrorists blowup all FCI godowns, Black maketeers hoard every last gram of
remaining onions and foodgrains, RBIs forex reserve gets completely empty because of
Fed Tapering..THEN and only THEN El Nino can create havoc on India.
7. El Nino Southern Oscillation = natural phenomenon for redistribution of excess heat.
Humans cannot control or modify this cycle. In theory we can stop El Nino by dropping
10m thick iceberg size of a United States, into the Peru coast- but thats impractical. So,
Instead of fearing El Nino, we must learn to predict and adapt to its consequences.
Arguments: why we should worry about El Nino 2014
Even if El Nino doesnt happen, the mere rumor of El Nino drives up the prices in
commodity market because of the speculative investors. For example, global prices of
Cocoa are high right now- not because of less production but because of El Nino
speculation.
It is true we enjoy good will among developed countries for getting free food aid. But this
time,
Australia- second largest export of wheat theyre already facing drought because
of Pre-El Nino type condition.
US Midwest =called Granary of the world for wheat and corn. But they too face
flood danger from El Nino.
India is second largest producer of sugar, rice and wheat in the world. 90% of Rice
comes from Asia.
Combine all these isolated facts with IPCCs latest report on climate change
Erratic Rainfall, melting of Himalayan glaciers, frequent flooding, draughts, storms and cyclones
=> Food insecurity for large population.
United Nations World Meteorological Organization predicted a weak El Nino by the
middle of 2014.
It depends on when exactly during mid 2014 this happens because
IF El Nino happens by summer
IF El Nio happens by fall season
(August to October.)
Then India will be worst affected because of low
monsoon during June- September.
Then India will escape without injuries.
Economic Survey Points on El Nino
From Ch8. Agriculture
What is El-Nino?
1. El Nio effect occurs when surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean continuously rise
above average for several months, which in turn adversely affects weather in many
parts of the world.
2. El Nino occurs every 3-5 years.
3. South-west (SW) monsoon (from June to September) accounts for ~75% rainfall. Any
shortage here.
4. El Nino often begins to form during June-August, and typically lasts 9-12 months.
Where India should worry?
El Ninos impact will be felt the most at
1. rainfed regions of central, south, and north-west India
2. Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Jharkhand, and Bihar.
3. rice, soybean, cotton, maize, jowar, groundnut, and sugarcane will be affected.
4. kharif pulses and oilseed
Why India shouldnt worry?
1. While the majority of drought years in India coincide with the occurence of the El Nio,
the reverse link is not that strong. (meaning, El nino doesnt always lead to Drought)
2. For example, in 1997, when the impact of El Nio was reported to be the worst, India
had 2 per cent higher than normal rainfall
3. In the past decade, the El Nio occurred in 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2009
4. But 2002-03 was the only year that India showed negative agri sector growth with
average rainfall dropping 20 per cent below normal.
5. The last four occurrences of El Nio reveals that the impact was more in the kharif
season.
6. Government has placed contingency measures in about 500 districts.
7. Central Water Commission (CWC) reflect a better status of water availability.
Mock question
Q1. What is El Nino? How does it affect India and World? (200 words)
El Nino is an Oceanic and Atmospheric phenomenon that leads to unusual warming of
water in the Peru coast.
Consequently, warm water + low pressure condition develops in the Eastern Pacific
(Peru) and Cold condition + high pressure in Western Pacific (Australia).
Since Pressure is inversely related with amount of rainfall, El Nino causes draught
situation in Australia and South East Asia.
El Nino also leads to reversal of pressure difference between Indian and Pacific Ocean-
known as Southern Oscillation.
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) weakens the Trade winds, consequently less push to
the South Western Monsoon Winds from Mascarene High to India, and therefore poor
monsoon.
To India
Drought condition decreases the agriculture output, leads to food inflation.
Declined supply of cotton, oilseeds and sugarcane negatively affects the textile, edible oil
and food processing industries respectively.
To World
Drought situation over South East Asia and Australia hurts rice and wheat cultivation
respectively.
Warm condition over Peru coast: unsuitable for Plankton population, thus bad for fishing
industry. Birds migrate in search of fishes, thus less guano dropping for Fertilizer
industry in Peru and Ecuador.
Flood situation in South America & US Midwest lead to decline in coffee-cocoa and corn-
wheat production respectively.
~220 words
Q2. Explain in brief, the impact of La Nina on Indian monsoon (200 words)
Thats your homework.
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