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SELZER & COMPANY

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DES MOINES REGISTER IOWA POLL
LIKELY 2014 VOTERS

SELZER & COMPANY Study #2108
701 Iowa likely voters October 28-31, 2014
Margin of error: 3.7 percentage points 1,026 contacts weighted by age, sex, and congressional district

How likely is it you will vote in the November general election for governor, U.S. Senate and other officeswill you
definitely vote, probably vote, might or might not vote, or probably not vote, or have you already cast a ballot in early
voting?


Already
voted
Definitely
vote
Probably
vote
Might or
might not
vote
Probably
not vote
Refused/
not sure

37 63 - - - -

Im going to mention three statewide races.

(If definitely vote, ask:) If the election for [ITEM FROM LIST] were held today and the candidates listed on the
ballot were [NAME OF CANDIDATE A] and [NAME OF CANDIDATE B], for whom would you vote?

(If already voted, ask:) In the election for [ITEM FROM LIST], for whom did you vote[NAME OF
CANDIDATE A] or [NAME OF CANDIDATE B]? (If not sure, ask:) Do you just not want to tell, or do you not
remember? (If decline or dont remember, code as not sure and continue.)

(Rotate list. Also rotate order of asking Democrat and Republican candidates every other interview.)


Terry Branstad
for the Republicans
Jack Hatch
for the Democrats
Other/ would not
vote (VOL)
Not
Sure

Governor 59 35 2 4


Adam Gregg
for the Republicans
Tom Miller
for the Democrats
Other/ would not
vote (VOL)
Not
Sure

Attorney General 39 50 2 9


Paul Pate
for the Republicans
Brad Anderson
for the Democrats
Other/ would not
vote (VOL)
Not
Sure

Secretary of State 44 41 3 12

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(If definitely vote, ask:) If the election for U.S. senator were held today and the candidates listed on the ballot were
[Bruce Braley for the Democrats] and [Joni Ernst for the Republicans], for whom would you vote?

(If already voted, ask:) In the election for U.S. senator, for whom did you vote[Democrat Bruce Braley] or
[Republican Joni Ernst]? (If not sure, ask:) Do you just not want to tell, or do you not remember? (If decline or dont
remember, code not sure in first choice and leaning questions and not sure in strength of support question and skip to next question. If
named a candidate after prompt, fill in response for first choice, skip leaning question and code mind made up for strength of support
and continue to next question.)

(If definitely vote and did not offer first choice, ask:) Toward which candidate would you say you are leaning, or
support the most?

(Rotate which candidate is asked first.)


First
Choice
Leaning
(Based on all) Total

Bruce Braley for the Democrats 44 - 44
Joni Ernst for the Republicans 50 1 51
Someone else (VOL) 1 - 1
Not sure 5 4 4
Would you say your mind is made up to vote for (CANDIDATE NAMED ABOVE) or could you still be
persuaded to vote for another candidate? (If No first choice above, do not ask, but code as no first choice.) (Asked only of
likely voters who named a candidate as first choice. By coding those who have already voted who had chosen a candidate as
having their minds made up and adding back in those who made no first choice, based on all likely voters. Margin of error for
Braley supporters: 5.6 percentage points. Margin of error for Ernst supporters: 5.2 percentage points.)


Mind is
made up
Could still be persuaded to
vote for another candidate Not sure No first choice

All likely 2014 voters n=701 88 7 2 3
Braley supporters only n=308 92 7 1 n/a
Ernst supporters only n=351 93 7 - n/a

Im going to mention some words or phrases that might be used to describe a candidatesome positive and some
negative. For each, please tell me if you think it better describes [JONI ERNST] or [BRUCE BRALEY]. (Rotate order
of names every other interview. Also rotate list.)
Joni Ernst Bruce Braley
Both equally
(VOL)
Not
Sure

Better reflects Iowa values 51 37 3 9
Cares more about people like you 47 39 3 11
Takes the most extreme positions on issues 48 33 4 15
Is too influenced by outside interests 41 35 9 15
Would work effectively across party lines 41 40 3 16
Has been more negative in campaign ads 32 44 17 7
Has shown a more civil tone 45 37 5 13
Is a regular, down-to-earth person 49 33 5 13
Has more depth on issues 40 42 4 14
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The next U.S. Senate will likely have to deal with some difficult foreign and domestic issues. Id like you to put
aside your choice of candidate and tell me, for each issue I mention, who you think would be better equipped to
show leadership and judgment[JONI ERNST] or [BRUCE BRALEY]. (Rotate order of names every other
interview. Also rotate list.)
Joni Ernst Bruce Braley
Both
equally
(VOL)
Not
Sure

The rise of the Islamic State in the Middle East 50 30 3 17
The Ebola outbreak in Africa 41 32 4 23
The national debt of nearly $17.9 trillion 51 34 2 13
The increasing costs of Social Security and Medicare 44 42 1 13
The increasing aggressiveness of Russia 48 31 2 19
The gridlock in Congress 42 40 3 15
The lack of improvement in average wages workers earn 35 49 2 14
The complicated tax system 41 41 1 17

(Alternate asking next two questions first every other interview. Begin the first of the two questions with:)
In every political career or campaign, candidates make mistakes.
Regardless of which candidate you support, which one or two of the following do you think were the worst mistakes
Bruce Braley made? (Rotate list. Accept up to two answers. Multiple responses accepted, so total may exceed 100%.)


All
Braley
voters


45 39 His implication that Chuck Grassley would not be qualified to chair the Senate Judiciary
Committee because he is a farmer
27 24 His low attendance at committee meetings about veterans
13 13 His part in a local dispute over chickens that led neighbors to believe he might file a lawsuit
9 17 His failure to start his statewide campaign early enough to be as well-known as Joni Ernst
24 9 His failure to separate himself from President Obama
6 10 None of these (VOL)
7 7 Not sure

Regardless of which candidate you support, which one or two of the following do you think were the worst mistakes
Joni Ernst made? (Rotate list. Accept up to two answers. Multiple responses accepted, so total may exceed 100%.)


All
Ernst
voters


21 13 Her reference to her support for changing the Iowa Constitution to define life as beginning
at conception as no more than a statement of her faith
27 21 Her suggestion that privatizing Social Security could be an option
31 20 Her relationship with the Koch brothers, who helped her campaign with advertising and
money
7 8 Her comment that she believed there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq before the
U.S. invasion
17 16 Her skepticism that climate change is real and man-made
14 26 None of these (VOL)
9 10 Not sure

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(Rotate next two questions every other interview.)
Regardless of which candidate you support, which one or two of the following would you say would be the strongest
reasons to vote for Bruce Braley? (Rotate list. Accept up to two answers. Multiple responses accepted, so total may exceed 100%.)


All
Braley
voters


9 16 To keep Democratic control of the Senate
14 22 To elect the person best qualified to represent Iowa
11 11 To keep both a Democrat and a Republican representing Iowa in the Senate
10 13 To elect a person who will support Obamacare, while working to make it better
20 30 To support the Obama administrations agenda to raise the minimum wage, improve the
economy for the middle class, and invest in infrastructure to promote jobs
8 10 To elect a person with progressive values
12 11 To elect a person who has served in Congress and will know the job on Day One
13 15 To elect a person who will preserve Social Security and Medicare benefits the way they
are now
17 1 None of these (VOL)
8 6 Not sure

Regardless of which candidate you support, which one or two of the following would you say would be the strongest
reasons to vote for Joni Ernst? (Rotate list. Accept up to two answers. Multiple responses accepted, so total may exceed 100%.)


All
Ernst
voters


13 21 To help Republicans take the majority in the Senate
16 25 To elect the person best qualified to represent Iowa
14 5 To elect the first woman from Iowa to the Congress
19 30 To get one step closer to repealing Obamacare
11 11 To get one step closer to a flatter, simpler tax code
11 18 To elect a person with socially conservative values
10 9 To elect a commanding officer in the U.S. military
15 18 To get one step closer to a balanced budget
12 2 None of these (VOL)
7 3 Not sure

Did you happen to vote in the 2010 mid-term elections four years ago?


84 Yes
12 No
4 Not sure
b. You mentioned earlier you have already voted in this election. Did a group, campaign, or organization
encourage you to either vote early or by absentee ballot? (If yes, ask:) Do you think you would or
would not have voted at all without that encouragementeither early or on election day? (Asked only of
those who already voted AND who say they did not vote in the 2010 election; n=23.)

25 Yes, would have voted even without encouragement
- Yes, would NOT have voted without encouragement (Note: Not one person)
72 No, was not encouraged
3 Not sure

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About the Poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted Oct. 28-31 for The Des Moines Register by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone
interviews with 701 Iowans ages 18 or older who say they have already voted or will definitely vote in the 2014 general
election.

Interviewers contacted 1,026 Iowans ages 18 or older with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by
Survey Sampling International. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect the general
population based on recent census data.

Questions based on the subsample of 701 Iowa likely voters in the 2014 election have a maximum margin of error of plus or
minus 3.7 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same
methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus
3.7 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondentssuch as by gender or agehave a larger margin of
error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register is prohibited.