ENGINEERING PROBABILITY

SET THEORY
Definition:
A set is a collection of well-defined objects, called elements.
Example 1.1 The following are examples of sets:
a. The months of the year that begins with letter J
b. The set of engineering drawing instruments
c. The set of !A teams in this year"s !A series
#ames of set are designated by using capital letters such as A, !, $. To
indicate that an element belongs to a gi%en set, the symbol epsilon is used
and the epsilon for an element that does not belong to the set.
Example 1.& 'rite the following statements in mathematical symbol.
a. () is an element of the set *+
Answer: ) *
b. ( 1 is not an element of the set *+
Answer: 1 *.
Methods of Describing A Set
,ne way of writing a set is by listing its elements, separating them by
commas, and including this listing within a pair of braces, - .. This way of
representing a set is called the listing or roster method.
Example 1./ 0escribe the gi%en sets by roster method.
a. 1f A is the set of the days of the wee2 that begin with the letter *, then
we describe A using roster method by
A 3 - *aturday, *unday .
b. 1f ! is the set of letters in the word love, then
! 3 - l, o, %, e .
c. 4sing set notation, write the set of digits that ma2e up the telephone
number for information, 5166157
Answer: - 7, 1, 6, 5 .
#ote that when we form a set, the elements within the set are ne%er repeated
and the elements can appear in any order.
Example 1.) -x 8 x is a natural number between & and 17. 9read ( the set of all
element x such that x is a natural number between & and 17+: defines the set - /,
), 6, ;, 5, <, = ..
The notation -x 8 x is a natural number between & and 17. is an example of
writing the set in set-builder notation.
Kinds Of Sets
A set A is said to be a subset of another set ! if e%ery element of A is
also an element of !. 1n symbol, A !.
Example 1.6 >i%en the sets
A 3 - 1, &, / ., ! 3 - 1, &, /, ), 6, ;, 5 ., ? 3 - /, 6, 5 .
0etermine if the following statements are true or false.
a. A ! Ans. True
b A ? Ans. @alse
c. ? ! Ans. True
The totality of elements under consideration as the elements of any set is the
universal set. 'e denote the uni%ersal set by the symbol U.
Operations On Sets
The union of sets A and !, denoted by A!, is defined as the set whose
elements are in A or in ! or in both A and !. 1n symbol,
A! 3 - x 8 x A or x ! .
Example 1.; >i%en the following sets:
A 3 - x 8 x is a positi%e e%en integer less than 17 .
! 3 - 1, /, 6, 5 .
The set A! 3 - &, ), ;, < . - 1, /, 6, 5 . 3 -1, &, /, ), 6, ;, 5, <.
The intersection of A and !, denoted by B A , is defined as the set whose
elements are common to both. 1n symbol, B A 3 - x 8 x A and x ! ..
Example 1.; >i%en the following sets:
A 3 - 1, &, / ., ! 3 - &, /, ), 6 ., ? 3 - ), 6 .
@ind:
a. B A Ans. -&, /.
b. C B Ans. -), 6.
Venn Diagram
A pictorial representation of relations and operations on sets is called a
Venn diagram. 1t usually shows a rectangle 9which represents the universal
set: that includes circles depicting the subsets.
Example: A sur%ey of 177 students in a particular high school revealed the following
information about their enrollment in Aathematics, Bistory, and ilipino:
&; ta2e Aathematics
;6 ta2e Bistory
;6 ta2e ilipino
1) ta2e Aathematics and Bistory
1/ ta2e Aathematics and ilipino
)7 ta2e Bistory and ilipino
< ta2e Aathematics, Bistory and ilipino
9a: Bow many students ta2e Aathematics as their only subjectC
9b: Bow many students did not ta2e any of the three subjectsC
9c: Bow many students were ta2ing Aathematics and Bistory but not
ilipinoC
*olution:
Deferring to the Eenn diagram abo%e,
9a: n
1
3 &; F 96 G < G ;: 3 5
9b: n
&
3 177 F 95 G &7 G1= G 6 G/& G ; G <: 3 /
9c: n
/
3 1) F < 3 ;
PERMUTATIONS AN !OM"INATIONS
Fundamental Counting rinciple:
1f an e%ent can happen in any one of p ways and if when this has
occurred, another e%ent can happen in any one of q ways, then the number of
ways in which both e%ents can happen in a specified order is pq.
Example: 1f in climbing a certain mountain, there are 6 trails that could be
followed in going to the top and ) trails in going down, in how many ways can the
trip be doneC
Solution: *ince n
1
3 6 and n
&
3 ), there are 69): 3 &7 ways in which such trip
can be done.
ermutations:
An arrangement of objects in a definite order is called a permutation of the
objects. This counting techniHue is usually applied to problems about digits,
filling distinct positions and seating arrangements.
Example: Ta2en / at a time, the letters A, !, ? has six permutations, namely
A!? A?! !A? !?A ?A! ?!A.
Ta2en two at a time, it has also six permutations, namely
A! A? !A !? ?A ?!.
The number of permutations of
n
things ta2en r at time is gi%en by
)! (
!
) 2 )( 1 ( ) , (
r n
n
factors r to n n n r n P or P
r n

= =
Example: 1n how many ways can the 6 starting positions on a !A team be
filled with 1& men who can play any of the positionsC
Solution: @or n 3 1& and r 3 6, the preceding formula on permutation yields
ways P 040 , 95
)! 5 12 (
! 12
5 12
=

=
- 0 -
The number of permutations of n distinct objects ta2en n at a time is nI, i.e.
1 2 3 ) 2 )( 1 ( ! ) , ( = = = n n n n n n P P
n n
Example: 1n how many ways can four boo2s 9Aath, Jnglish, Bistory and
*cience: be arranged on a shelfC
Solution: 4sing
n

n
with n 3 ), we ha%e 3 )I 3 &) ways.
Permutation with Alike Things:
The number of permutations of n objects ta2en altogether where r
1
are of
one 2ind, r
&
are of the other 2ind and so on is gi%en by
! ! !
!
2 1 k
n n
r r r
n
P

=
Example: The number of ways of arranging the word B1K11#J* is
ways P 800 , 108 , 1
! 3 ! 3
! 11
11 11
= =
Circular Permutations:
To find the number of ways of arranging n different objects in a circle, we
first select a position for one of the objects. Then the others can be placed in
their positions in 9n F 1:I ways.
The number of circular permutations of n objects ta2en altogether is
)! 1 (
1 1
=

n P
n n
Example: 1n how many ways can 5 different trees be planted in a circleC
Solution: *ince n 3 5, there are 95-1:I 3 ;I 3 5&7 ways of planting the 5 trees in
a circle.
Combinations:
A combination is a selection of objects with no attention gi%en to the order
of arrangements. This counting techniHue is usually applied to problems about
groups, committees or collections where order of the elements is not important.
The number of combinations of n objects ta2en r at a time is gi%en by
! )! (
!
) , (
r r n
n
r n C or C
r n

=
Example: 1n a dec2 of 6& cards, in how many ways can we select 6 heartsC
Solution: The number of ways of selecting 6 hearts out of 1/ heart cards is
ways C 287 , 1
! 5 )! 5 13 (
! 13
5 13
=

=
Combination in a Series:
The total number of combinations of n things ta2en 1, &, /, . . . . . ., n at a
time is
1 2 ......
3 2 1
= + + + +
n
n n n n n
C C C C
Example: A boy has 6 coins each of a different denomination. Bow many
different sums of money can he formC
Solution:
31 1 2
5
5 5 4 5 3 5 2 5 1 5
= = + + + + C C C C C
!O"A"#$#%&
The sample space * for an experiment is the set of all possible outcomes
of the experiment. Any subset of a sample space is called an event. 1f A is a
subset of *, then the probability of the occurrence of e%ent A is eHual to the
number of possible ways in which e%ent A can occur, i.e. n9A: di%ided by the
number of possible outcomes of the experiment, i.e. n9*:.
) (
) (
) (
S n
A n
A P =
1f A" is the e%ent that A will not occur, then
) ( 1
) (
) ' (
) ' ( A P
S n
A n
A P = =
i.e.
1 ) ' ( ) ( = + A P A P
Example: 1n a family of & children, what is the probability of ha%ing exactly one
boyC
Solution: To answer this problem, the total number of outcomes must be listed
first. This is the fundamental sample space *.
* 3 -!
1
!
&
, !
1
>
&
, >
1
!
&
, >
1
>
&
.
There are ) possible outcomes of which only two contain exactly 1 boy.
Therefore if A is the e%ent of ha%ing exactly one boy, then
A 3 - !
1
>
&
, >
1
!
&
.
2
1
4
2
) (
) (
) ( = = =
S n
A n
A P
Conditional Probability:
?onditional probability is the probability that a second e%ent will occur if
the first e%ent already happened. *ymbolically, conditional probability is written
as 9A8!: and is read as the probability of e%ent A gi%en that e%ent ! has
occurred. The computing formula is gi%en by
9A8!: 3
) (
) (
) (
) (
B n
B A n
B P
B A P
=

where 9AL!: is the probability that both e%ents A and ! will occur.
Example: A card is drawn from a dec2 of 6& playing cards. >i%en that the card
drawn is a face card, then what is the probability of getting a 2ingC
*olution: Ket A be the e%ent of getting a face card and ! the e%ent of getting a
2ing. Thus
9A8!: 3
3
1
12
4
) (
) (
= =

B n
A B n
Mutually Exclusive Events:
Two e%ents are mutuall# e$%lusive if they can not occur at the same
time.
Ket A and ! be mutually exclusi%e e%ents. Then
9A!: 3 9A: G 9!:
where 9A!: is the probability that e%ent A or ! will occur.
1f e%ents A and ! are not mutually exclusi%e, then
9A!: 3 9A: G 9!: F 9AL!:
ndependent and !ependent Events:
Two e%ents A and ! are said to be inde&endent if the occurrence of an
e%ent A does not affect the occurrence of e%ent !. ,therwise, the e%ents are
said to be dependent.
An example of independent e%ents A and ! is when drawing a ball 9A:
from an urn and after replacing the first, a second ball is drawn 9!:.
An example of dependent e%ents A and ! is when drawing the first ball
9A:, a second ball is drawn 9!: without replacement of the first.
@or independent e%ents A and !,
) ( ) ( ) ( B P A P B A P =
1f e%ent ! depends on e%ent A,
) ( ) ( ) ( A B P A P B A P =
Probabilities in "epeated Trials:
1f p is the probability that an e%ent will occur in a single trial of an experiment and
H is the probability the e%ent will fail to occur, then the probability that these e%ents will
occur exactly r times in n trials is
r n r
r n
q p C

Expectation:
1f p is the probability of the occurrence of an e%ent in a single trial, then the
expected number of occurrences or expectation of that e%ent in n trials is
defined as np.
1f p is the probability that a person will win m pesos, his expectation is
defined as mp. 1t is the a%erage amount that he would expect to win in the long
run.
Review Exercises in Engineering Probability
1. A certain ec!anica" #art $% a ac!ine can &e 'e%ective &eca(se it !as $ne $r $re $(t $%
t!ree #$ssi&"e 'e%ects) ins(%%icient tensi"e stren*t!, a &(rr $r a 'iaeter $(tsi'e $% t$"erance
"iits. +n a "$t $% 500 #ieces
19 !ave tensi"e stren*t! 'e%ect,
17 !ave a &(rr,
11 !ave an (nacce#ta&"e 'iaeter,
12 !ave tensi"e stren*t! an' &(rr 'e%ects,
7 !ave tensi"e stren*t! an' 'iaeter 'e%ects,
5 !ave &(rr an' 'iaeter 'e%ects,
2 !ave a"" t!ree 'e%ects.
(a) ,$w an- !ave n$ 'e%ects.
(&) ,$w an- #ieces !ave $n"- &(rr 'e%ects.
(c) ,$w an- #ieces !ave exact"- tw$ 'e%ects.
2. ,$w an- #er(tati$ns can &e %$re' %r$ t!e "etters $% t!e w$r' /01234+454+126.
3. ,$w an- %$(r-#"ace n(&ers can &e %$re' (sin* t!e 'i*its %r$ 1 t$ 9.
4. 7in' n i% 8(n, 3) 9 : 0(n, 5).
5. ,$w an- n(&ers $% 5 'i%%erent 'i*its, eac! n(&er t$ c$ntain 3 $'' an' 2 even 'i*its, can
&e %$re' 1 t$ 9.
:. A 'rawer c$ntains 10 w!ite &a""s an' : &"ac; &a""s. <!at is t!e #r$&a&i"it- $% ran'$"-
'rawin* 2 &"ac; &a""s.
a. 0.15 &. 0.104 c. 0.125 '. 0.180
7. 4w$ 'ice are r$""e'. 7in' t!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at t!e s( $% t!e $(tc$es is *reater t!an 10.
8. 2ine tic;ets, n(&ere' 1 t$ 9, are in a &$x. +% tw$ tic;ets are 'rawn at ran'$, 'eterine t!e
#r$&a&i"it- t!at &$t! are $''.
9. A c$ittee $% t!ree is t$ &e %$re' %r$ a *r$(# $% 5 en an' 4 w$en. +% t!e se"ecti$n is
a'e at ran'$, %in' t!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at tw$ are en.
10. 4!ree &a""s are 'rawn %r$ a &$x c$ntainin* 5 re', 8 &"ac; an' 4 w!ite &a""s. =eterine t!e
#r$&a&i"it- t!at a"" are w!ite.
11. A &a* c$ntains 9 &a""s n(&ere' 1 t$ 9. 4w$ &a""s are are 'rawn at ran'$. 7in' t!e
#r$&a&i"it- t!at $ne is even an' t!e $t!er is $''.
12. ,$w an- cars can &e *iven "icense #"ates !avin* 5-'i*it n(&ers (sin* t!e 'i*its 1 t$ 5 wit!
n$ 'i*it re#eate' in an- "icense #"ate.
13. A c$ittee $% 4 is se"ecte' &- "$t %r$ a *r$(# $% : en an' 4 w$en. <!at wi"" &e t!e
#r$&a&i"it- t!at it wi"" c$nsist $% exact"- 2 en an' w$en.
14. 7r$ a &a* c$ntainin* 3 w!ite, 4 &"ac; an' 5 re' &a""s, a &a"" is 'rawn. 7in' t!e #r$&a&i"it-
t!at it is n$t re'.
15. 4!ere are %$(r &a""s $% 'i%%erent c$"$rs. 4w$ &a""s at a tie are ta;en an' arran*e' an- wa-.
,$w an- s(c! c$&inati$ns are #$ssi&"e.
a. 3: &. 3 c. : '. 12
1:. A *ir" !as : &a*s, 11 'resses, an' 7 #airs $% s!$es. +n !$w an- 'i%%erent wa-s can s!e 'ress
(#.
17. ,$w an- si*na"s can a sc$(t a;e $(t $% 9 &anners i% 3 &anners are re', 4 are &"(e, an' 2
are w!ite.
18. A %ai"- $% %$(r enters an air#"ane w!ic! !as %i%teen avai"a&"e seats. +n !$w an- 'i%%erent
wa-s can t!e %ai"- &e seate'.
19. ,$w an- *r$(#s can &e a'e $(t $% ei*!t &$-s i% t!e *r$(#s wi"" c$nsist $% 1 t$ 8 &$-s.
20. Re#etiti$ns a""$we', %in' t!e n(&er $% c$&inati$ns t!at can &e %$re' %r$ t!e n(&ers 2,
3, 5, 8, an' 9, i% eac! c$&inati$n c$nsists $% %ive 'i*its.
21. A c$in is t$sse' twice. <!at is t!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at exact"- $ne !ea' $cc(rs.
22. A 'ie is t$sse'. <!at is t!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at t!e n(&er /56 s!$ws (# $r a n(&er "ess t!an
:.
23. +% a car' is 'rawn %r$ an $r'inar- 'ec;, %in' t!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at it is a !eart $r a 'ia$n'.
24. 4w$ c$ins are t$sse'. 7in' t!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at t!e c$ins %a"" a"i;e an' t!e %irst c$in is a !ea'.
25. A &$x c$ntains tw$ -e""$w an' t!ree w!ite &a""s. 4w$ &a""s are 'rawn in s(ccessi$n wit!$(t
re#"aceents. <!at is t!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at &$t! are -e""$w.
2:. A &(i"'in* !as six $(tsi'e '$$rs. +n !$w an- wa-s can a #ers$n enter an' "eave t!e
&(i"'in* &- a 'i%%erent '$$r.
27. 7$(r 'i%%erent c$"$re' %"a*s can &e !(n* in a r$w t$ a;e a c$'e' si*na". ,$w an- si*na"s
can &e a'e i% a si*na" c$nsists $% t!e 'is#"a- $% tw$ $r $re %"a*s.
a. :0 &. :2 c. :4 '. ::
28. +n !$w an- wa-s can seven 'i%%erent c$"$re' &ea's &e a'e int$ a &race"et.
29. A c"ass c$nsists $% 5 &$-s an' 7 *ir"s. (a) +n !$w an- wa-s can t!e c"ass e"ect t!e #resi'ent,
t!e vice-#resi'ent an' t!e secretar-. (&) +n !$w an- wa-s can t!e c"ass e"ect 3 e&ers $%
a certain c$ittee.
30. +n !$w an- wa-s can a st('ent answer 5 $(t $% 8 >(esti$ns i% !e is re>(ire' t$ answer 3 $%
t!e %irst 4 >(esti$ns.
31. A &a* c$ntains 3 w!ite, 7 &"ac;, 2 re' an' 9 *reen &a""s. +% $ne &a"" is 'rawn %r$ t!e &a*,
w!at is t!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at it wi"" eit!er &e w!ite $r *reen.
a. 4?7 &. 3?8 c. 1?7 '. n$ne $% t!ese
32. A st('ent is ta;in* tw$ exas, $ne in 0a"c("(s an' an$t!er in 8!-sics. 4!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at
!e wi"" #ass t!e 0a"c("(s exa is 0.75 an' t!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at !e wi"" %ai" t!e 8!-sics exa is
0.20. 4!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at !e wi"" #ass &$t! exas is 0.:5. <!at is t!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at !e wi""
#ass eit!er $% t!e exas.
33. 7r$ a &a* c$ntainin* 4 &"ac; &a""s an' 5 w!ite &a""s, tw$ &a""s are 'rawn $ne at a tie. 7in'
t!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at &$t! &a""s are w!ite. Ass(e t!at t!e %irst &a"" is ret(rne' &e%$re t!e
sec$n' &a"" is 'rawn.
34. A &a* c$ntains 3 w!ite an' 5 &"ac; &a""s. +% tw$ &a""s are 'rawn in s(ccessi$n wit!$(t
re#"aceent, w!at is t!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at &$t! &a""s are &"ac;.
35. 4!e #r$&a&i"it- $% *ettin* !ea' $r tai" in t$ssin* a c$in is @. +% a c$in is t$sse' : ties, w!at
is t!e #r$&a&i"it- $% *ettin* exact"- 4 !ea's.
a. 15?:4 &. 5?1: c. 1?8 '. n$ne $% t!ese
A23<ER3)
1. 475, 2, 18 11. 5?9 21. 1?2 31. a
2. 9,979,000 12. 120 22. 5?: 32. 0.9
3. 3,024 13. 3?7 23. @ 33. 25?81
4. 8 14. 7?12 24. A 34. 5?14
5. 7,200 15. ' 25. 1?10 35. a
:. c 1:. 4:2 2:. 30
7. 1?12 17. 12:0 27. a
8. 5?18 18. 32,7:0 28. 720
9. 10?21 19. 255 29. 1320, 220
10. 1?170 20. 3,125 30. 24