Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Output
Entercurrentlongtermgovernmentbondrate=
EstimatedBondRating=
EstimatedDefaultSpread=
EstimatedCostofDebt=
2.25%
AA
0.70%
2.95%
2.35%
Ifyouwanttoupdatethespreadslistedbelow,pleasevisithttp://www.bondsonline.com
Forlargemanufacturingfirms
Ifinterestcoverageratiois
>
to
Ratingis
Spreadis
100000
0.199999
D
12.00%
0.2
0.649999
C
10.50%
0.65
0.799999
CC
9.50%
0.8
1.249999
CCC
8.75%
1.25
1.499999
B
7.25%
1.5
1.749999
B
6.50%
1.75
1.999999
B+
5.50%
2
2.2499999
BB
4.00%
2.25
2.49999
BB+
3.00%
2.5
2.999999
BBB
2.00%
3
4.249999
A
1.30%
4.25
5.499999
A
1.00%
5.5
6.499999
A+
0.85%
6.5
8.499999
AA
0.70%
8.50
100000
AAA
0.40%
Page 1
Cost Of Capital
Cost of Debt
rf 10year
spread
rating
rd
2.35%
Cost of Equity
CAPM
rf
beta
rm
WACC
wd
we
tax
WACC
Wd*Rd*(1-T)+We*Re
0.80%
99.20%
35%
7.26%
# shares
Price
Market Value of Equity
678.36
$550.00
$ 373,098.00
$630
$2,390
Page 2
7.31%
Wd*Rd*(1-T)+We*Re
Exhibit TN1
Google' Ratio Analysis and Forecast of Free
1
At Closing
EBIT
EBIT(1-t)
Plus: Depreciation
Minus: CAPX
Minus: NWC
Free Cash Flow
Discount Factor
PV(FCF)
2011
2012
12,326
8,012
1851
-3438
-3234
3,191
13,386
8,701
2962
-3273
-2703
5,687
0.9323
0.8692
2,974.96
4,943.23
Terminal
Values
Stable
g = 0%
Growing
g = 2%
Sum PV(FCF)
18,786
18,786
TV
PV(TV)
89,909
63,334
126,585
89,170
Total Enterpr
82,121
107,956
Market value
Value of Equit
0
82,121
0
107,956
Net Present
82,121
107956
Rate
Growth
0.0726
0.0600
Exhibit TN1
Google' Ratio Analysis and Forecast of Free Cash Flows
3
2013
4
2014 Projection
14,496
9,422
3939
-7358
-3747
2,256
16,091
10,459
4827
(5,530)
(3,876.67)
5,879
5
2015Projection
17,861
11,609 (PULL Over)
5358
(6,138) (fixed Assets)
(4,303.10) (Ar+Inv-AP)
6,526
0.8104
0.7556
0.7044
1,828.60
4,442.30
4,597.25
Growing
g = 4%
g = 6%
18,786
18,786
208,281
146,719
549,595
387,150
165,505
405,937
0
165,505
0
405,937
165,505
405,937
Sensitivity Analysis
405,937
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
0.04
#DIV/0!
-542,505
-263,574
-170,597
-124,108
-96,215
-77,619
0.05
551,896
#DIV/0!
-521,929
-253,473
-163,988
-119,245
-92,399
0.06
273,092
531,560
#DIV/0!
-502,313
-243,845
-157,689
-114,611
Assumptions
Tax
0.35
2011
EBIT growth
Depreciation
2012
2013
9%
15%
8%
22%
11%
27%
CAPX
-28%
-24%
-51%
NWC
-26.2%
-20.2%
-25.8%
14,496,000
13,386,000
12,326,000
3,939,000
2,962,000
1,851,000
-7,358,000
-3,273,000
-3,438,000
-1,307,000
2,206,000
-234,000
-3747
-787,000
2,217,000
301,000
-2703
0.07
165,437
232,362
405,515
1,910,616
-652,124
-269,186
-165,764
0.08
133,867
173,841
253,791
493,639
#DIV/0!
-465,753
-225,905
$
$
$
$
$
$
0.09
106,088.07
129,204.72
167,732.46
244,787.94
475,954.38
#DIV/0!
(448,711.39)
1) What if analysis
2) Data Tables
3) Highlight highs
Projection Projection
2014
2015
11%
11%
30%
30%
-34.4%
-34.4%
-24%
-24%
-1,156,000
2,048,000
-30,000
-3234
A
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
INCOME STATEMENT
Sales Revenue
Less: Cost of Goods Sold
Gross Profits
Less: Operating Expenses:
Selling/General/Admin Exp
Research & Development
Lease Expense
Depreciation Expense
Total Operating Expenses
Operating Profits
Less: Interest Expense/ Gain(Loss) from
sale of Assets/ Other
Net Profits Before Taxes
Less: Taxes
Net Profit After Taxes
Less: Pref. Stock Divds.
Earnings Available for Common
Stockholders
BALANCE SHEET
Current Assets:
Cash
Marketable Securities
Accounts Receivable
Prepaid Expenses/Other
Total Current Assets
Gross Fixed Assets (at cost):
PPOE
Goodwill
Intangibles
Long Term Investments
Other (Inc. Fin. Leases)
Total Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Accumulated Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Other Assets
Total Assets
Current Liabilities:
Accounts Payable
Notes Payable
Accruals
Taxes Payable
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
L / T Debt (Inc. Financial Leases)
Total Liabilities
Treasury Stock/ Other
Common Stock
Paid-In Capital In Excess of Par
Retained Earnings
Total Stockholders' Equity
Total Liabs. & Stockhldrs' Equity
Reconciliation TA & TL/SE
Number of Common Shares
End-of-Year Stock Price
Nick Serpico
Google
2011
3
2011
$4,984
$1,587
$3,397
2012
$4,987
$1,621
$3,366
2013
$4,680
$1,349
$3,331
$1,619
$919
$24
$34
$2,597
$800
$1,642
$886
$236
$36
$2,800
$566
$1,700
$1,008
($13)
$45
$2,741
$590
($27)
$827
$242
$586
($463)
($4,647)
$5,214
$1,940
$3,273
($671)
($43)
$633
$153
$480
($886)
$1,049
$3,945
$1,366
IF($B$8>4,F26-F27," ")
$1,562
$493
$1,043
$354
$3,453
$2,668
$1,516
$1,050
$419
$5,653
$2,078
$1,330
$1,017
$601
$5,026
=IF($B$8>4,SUM(F33:F36)," ")
$3,403
$3,901
$255
$5,255
$189
$13,002
$1,672
$11,330
$3,951
$3,827
$154
$5,522
$262
$13,716
$2,265
$11,451
$3,612
$4,680
$418
$5,041
$152
$13,902
$2,124
$11,779
$14,783
$17,103
$16,805
=IF($B$8>4,F37+F46," ")
2011
$167
$0
$833
$0
$207
$1,207
$1,037
$2,245
$289
$1
$9,826
$2,432
$12,549
$14,793
$11
1,217
$580.11
2012
$185
$0
$767
$0
$338
$1,290
$1,253
$2,543
($806)
$1
$9,563
$5,792
$14,551
$17,094
($9)
1,115
$755.69
2013
$138
$0
$572
$0
$630
$1,340
$2,390
$3,730
$102
$1
$8,688
$4,267
$13,058
$16,788
($16)
1,014
$1,180.97
=IF($B$8>4,F37+F46," ")
=IF($B$8>4,F13-F14," ")
=IF($B$8>4,SUM(F17:F20)," ")
=IF($B$8>4,F15-F21," ")
=IF($B$8>4,F22-F23," ")
=IF($B$8>4,F24-F25," ")
=IF($B$8>4,SUM(F39:F43)," ")
=IF($B$8>4,F44-F45," ")
=IF($B$8>4,SUM(F51:F55)," ")
=IF($B$8>4,F56+F57," ")
=IF($B$8>4,SUM(F59:F62)," ")
=IF($B$8>4,F58+F63," ")
=IF($B$8>4,F64-F48," ")
A
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
RATIO ANALYSIS
Current Ratio
Quick Ratio
Inventory Turnover
Average Collection Period
Fixed Asset Turnover
Total Asset Turnover
Debt Ratio
Debt-to-Equity
Times Interest Earned
Gross Profit Margin
Operating Profit Margin
Net Profit Margin
2.86
2.86
4.38
4.38
3.75
3.75
76.36
0.44
0.34
76.87
0.44
0.29
79.31
0.40
0.28
7.02%
7.33%
8.27%
8.61%
EBIT/interest expense
14.22%
18.30%
68.16%
16.06%
21.04%
67.50%
11.36%
79.11%
71.17%
12.60%
29.18%
7.09%
8.36%
23.06%
27.11%
8.13%
10.46%
$0.86
$3.54
$1.35
Price/Earnings Ratio
673.51
213.64
877.00
2012
$3,273
$36
($7)
($64)
$0
$18
($66)
$0
$131
$3,320
2013
$480
$45
$33
($182)
$0
($47)
($195)
$0
$292
$425
($714)
($714)
($187)
($187)
$0
$215
($1,358)
$671
$0
$1,137
$32
$886
($471)
$2,056
$2,136
$2,294
2011
110
120
Date
Adj Close
8/19/2004
9/1/2004
10/1/2004
11/1/2004
12/1/2004
1/3/2005
2/1/2005
3/1/2005
4/1/2005
5/2/2005
6/1/2005
7/1/2005
8/1/2005
9/1/2005
10/3/2005
11/1/2005
12/1/2005
1/3/2006
2/1/2006
3/1/2006
4/3/2006
5/1/2006
6/1/2006
7/3/2006
8/1/2006
9/1/2006
10/2/2006
11/1/2006
12/1/2006
1/3/2007
2/1/2007
3/1/2007
4/2/2007
5/1/2007
6/1/2007
7/2/2007
8/1/2007
9/4/2007
10/1/2007
11/1/2007
12/3/2007
1/2/2008
2/1/2008
3/3/2008
4/1/2008
5/1/2008
6/2/2008
7/1/2008
8/1/2008
9/2/2008
10/1/2008
11/3/2008
12/1/2008
HPR
51.24
64.86
95.42
91.08
96.49
97.91
94.09
90.35
110.11
138.77
147.22
144.02
143.14
158.39
186.26
202.66
207.64
216.55
181.49
195.2
209.18
186.1
209.87
193.49
189.45
201.15
238.43
242.65
230.47
251
224.95
229.31
235.93
249.2
261.61
255.26
257.88
283.92
353.85
346.85
346.09
282.43
235.83
220.46
287.43
293.19
263.47
237.11
231.88
200.46
179.86
146.63
153.98
27%
47%
-5%
6%
1%
-4%
-4%
22%
26%
6%
-2%
-1%
11%
18%
9%
2%
4%
-16%
8%
7%
-11%
13%
-8%
-2%
6%
19%
2%
-5%
9%
-10%
2%
3%
6%
5%
-2%
1%
10%
25%
-2%
0%
-18%
-16%
-7%
30%
2%
-10%
-10%
-2%
-14%
-10%
-18%
5%
Page 13
1/2/2009
2/2/2009
3/2/2009
4/1/2009
5/1/2009
6/1/2009
7/1/2009
8/3/2009
9/1/2009
10/1/2009
11/2/2009
12/1/2009
1/4/2010
2/1/2010
3/1/2010
4/1/2010
5/3/2010
6/1/2010
7/1/2010
8/2/2010
9/1/2010
10/1/2010
11/1/2010
12/1/2010
1/3/2011
2/1/2011
3/1/2011
4/1/2011
5/2/2011
6/1/2011
7/1/2011
8/1/2011
9/1/2011
10/3/2011
11/1/2011
12/1/2011
1/3/2012
2/1/2012
3/1/2012
4/2/2012
5/1/2012
6/1/2012
7/2/2012
8/1/2012
9/4/2012
10/1/2012
11/1/2012
12/3/2012
1/2/2013
2/1/2013
3/1/2013
4/1/2013
5/1/2013
6/3/2013
169.43
169.16
174.2
198.18
208.82
211.01
221.75
231.07
248.17
268.33
291.79
310.3
265.24
263.66
283.84
263.11
243.06
222.7
242.67
225.24
263.16
307.16
278.13
297.28
300.48
307.01
293.67
272.32
264.77
253.44
302.15
270.75
257.78
296.62
299.99
323.27
290.35
309.43
320.94
302.73
290.72
290.33
316.8
342.89
377.63
340.49
349.53
354.04
378.22
401
397.49
412.7
436.05
440.63
10%
0%
3%
14%
5%
1%
5%
4%
7%
8%
9%
6%
-15%
-1%
8%
-7%
-8%
-8%
9%
-7%
17%
17%
-9%
7%
1%
2%
-4%
-7%
-3%
-4%
19%
-10%
-5%
15%
1%
8%
-10%
7%
4%
-6%
-4%
0%
9%
8%
10%
-10%
3%
1%
7%
6%
-1%
4%
6%
1%
Page 14
7/1/2013
8/1/2013
9/3/2013
10/1/2013
11/1/2013
12/2/2013
444.32
423.87
438.39
515.81
530.33
560.92
mean
sd
Count
Standard Error
RF
Proability of losing money
1%
-5%
3%
18%
3%
6%
3%
11%
112
1.00%
0.29%
#MACRO?
Page 15
RF
Date
Adj Close
%
8/2/2004
4.13 4.13%
9/1/2004
4.12 4.12%
10/1/2004
4.03 4.03%
11/1/2004
4.36 4.36%
12/1/2004
4.22 4.22%
1/3/2005
4.13 4.13%
2/1/2005
4.36 4.36%
3/1/2005
4.5 4.5%
4/1/2005
4.2 4.2%
5/2/2005
4.01 4.01%
6/1/2005
3.94 3.94%
7/1/2005
4.29 4.29%
8/1/2005
4.02 4.02%
9/1/2005
4.33 4.33%
10/3/2005
4.56 4.56%
11/1/2005
4.5 4.5%
12/1/2005
4.39 4.39%
1/3/2006
4.53 4.53%
2/1/2006
4.55 4.55%
3/1/2006
4.85 4.85%
4/3/2006
5.07 5.07%
5/1/2006
5.11 5.11%
6/1/2006
5.14 5.14%
7/3/2006
4.99 4.99%
8/1/2006
4.73 4.73%
9/1/2006
4.63 4.63%
10/2/2006
4.61 4.61%
11/1/2006
4.46 4.46%
12/1/2006
4.71 4.71%
1/3/2007
4.83 4.83%
2/1/2007
4.55 4.55%
3/1/2007
4.65 4.65%
4/2/2007
4.63 4.63%
5/1/2007
4.89 4.89%
6/1/2007
5.03 5.03%
7/2/2007
4.77 4.77%
8/1/2007
4.54 4.54%
9/4/2007
4.58 4.58%
10/1/2007
4.47 4.47%
11/1/2007
3.97 3.97%
12/3/2007
4.03 4.03%
1/2/2008
3.64 3.64%
2/1/2008
3.53 3.53%
3/3/2008
3.43 3.43%
4/1/2008
3.76 3.76%
5/1/2008
4.05 4.05%
6/2/2008
3.98 3.98%
7/1/2008
3.98 3.98%
8/1/2008
3.81 3.81%
9/2/2008
3.83 3.83%
10/1/2008
3.97 3.97%
11/3/2008
2.96 2.96%
12/1/2008
2.24 2.24%
12
0.34%
0.34%
0.34%
0.36%
0.35%
0.34%
0.36%
0.38%
0.35%
0.33%
0.33%
0.36%
0.34%
0.36%
0.38%
0.38%
0.37%
0.38%
0.38%
0.40%
0.42%
0.43%
0.43%
0.42%
0.39%
0.39%
0.38%
0.37%
0.39%
0.40%
0.38%
0.39%
0.39%
0.41%
0.42%
0.40%
0.38%
0.38%
0.37%
0.33%
0.34%
0.30%
0.29%
0.29%
0.31%
0.34%
0.33%
0.33%
0.32%
0.32%
0.33%
0.25%
0.19%
Page 16
RF
1/2/2009
2/2/2009
3/2/2009
4/1/2009
5/1/2009
6/1/2009
7/1/2009
8/3/2009
9/1/2009
10/1/2009
11/2/2009
12/1/2009
1/4/2010
2/1/2010
3/1/2010
4/1/2010
5/3/2010
6/1/2010
7/1/2010
8/2/2010
9/1/2010
10/1/2010
11/1/2010
12/1/2010
1/3/2011
2/1/2011
3/1/2011
4/1/2011
5/2/2011
6/1/2011
7/1/2011
8/1/2011
9/1/2011
10/3/2011
11/1/2011
12/1/2011
1/3/2012
2/1/2012
3/1/2012
4/2/2012
5/1/2012
6/1/2012
7/2/2012
8/1/2012
9/4/2012
10/1/2012
11/1/2012
12/3/2012
1/2/2013
2/1/2013
3/1/2013
4/1/2013
5/1/2013
6/3/2013
2.84
3.04
2.68
3.12
3.46
3.52
3.5
3.4
3.31
3.39
3.2
3.84
3.61
3.6
3.83
3.66
3.3
2.95
2.91
2.48
2.52
2.61
2.8
3.31
3.38
3.41
3.45
3.3
3.05
3.16
2.81
2.22
1.92
2.17
2.07
1.87
1.8
1.98
2.22
1.91
1.58
1.66
1.49
1.56
1.64
1.69
1.61
1.76
1.99
1.89
1.85
1.67
2.16
2.48
2.84%
3.04%
2.68%
3.12%
3.46%
3.52%
3.5%
3.4%
3.31%
3.39%
3.2%
3.84%
3.61%
3.6%
3.83%
3.66%
3.3%
2.95%
2.91%
2.48%
2.52%
2.61%
2.8%
3.31%
3.38%
3.41%
3.45%
3.3%
3.05%
3.16%
2.81%
2.22%
1.92%
2.17%
2.07%
1.87%
1.8%
1.98%
2.22%
1.91%
1.58%
1.66%
1.49%
1.56%
1.64%
1.69%
1.61%
1.76%
1.99%
1.89%
1.85%
1.67%
2.16%
2.48%
0.24%
0.25%
0.22%
0.26%
0.29%
0.29%
0.29%
0.28%
0.28%
0.28%
0.27%
0.32%
0.30%
0.30%
0.32%
0.31%
0.28%
0.25%
0.24%
0.21%
0.21%
0.22%
0.23%
0.28%
0.28%
0.28%
0.29%
0.28%
0.25%
0.26%
0.23%
0.19%
0.16%
0.18%
0.17%
0.16%
0.15%
0.17%
0.19%
0.16%
0.13%
0.14%
0.12%
0.13%
0.14%
0.14%
0.13%
0.15%
0.17%
0.16%
0.15%
0.14%
0.18%
0.21%
Page 17
RF
7/1/2013
8/1/2013
9/3/2013
10/1/2013
11/1/2013
12/2/2013
2.59
2.75
2.62
2.54
2.74
3.03
2.59%
2.75%
2.62%
2.54%
2.74%
3.03%
0.22%
0.23%
0.22%
0.21%
0.23%
0.25%
Average
0.29%
Page 18
S&P
Date
Adj Close
HPR
8/2/2004
1104.24
9/1/2004
1114.58
0.94%
10/1/2004
1130.2
1.40%
11/1/2004
1173.82
3.86%
12/1/2004
1211.92
3.25%
1/3/2005
1181.27
-2.53%
2/1/2005
1203.6
1.89%
3/1/2005
1180.59
-1.91%
4/1/2005
1156.85
-2.01%
5/2/2005
1191.5
3.00%
6/1/2005
1191.33
-0.01%
7/1/2005
1234.18
3.60%
8/1/2005
1220.33
-1.12%
9/1/2005
1228.81
0.69%
10/3/2005
1207.01
-1.77%
11/1/2005
1249.48
3.52%
12/1/2005
1248.29
-0.10%
1/3/2006
1280.08
2.55%
2/1/2006
1280.66
0.05%
3/1/2006
1294.87
1.11%
4/3/2006
1310.61
1.22%
5/1/2006
1270.09
-3.09%
6/1/2006
1270.2
0.01%
7/3/2006
1276.66
0.51%
8/1/2006
1303.82
2.13%
9/1/2006
1335.85
2.46%
10/2/2006
1377.94
3.15%
11/1/2006
1400.63
1.65%
12/1/2006
1418.3
1.26%
1/3/2007
1438.24
1.41%
2/1/2007
1406.82
-2.18%
3/1/2007
1420.86
1.00%
4/2/2007
1482.37
4.33%
5/1/2007
1530.62
3.25%
6/1/2007
1503.35
-1.78%
7/2/2007
1455.27
-3.20%
8/1/2007
1473.99
1.29%
9/4/2007
1526.75
3.58%
10/1/2007
1549.38
1.48%
11/1/2007
1481.14
-4.40%
12/3/2007
1468.36
-0.86%
1/2/2008
1378.55
-6.12%
2/1/2008
1330.63
-3.48%
3/3/2008
1322.7
-0.60%
4/1/2008
1385.59
4.75%
5/1/2008
1400.38
1.07%
6/2/2008
1280
-8.60%
7/1/2008
1267.38
-0.99%
8/1/2008
1282.83
1.22%
9/2/2008
1166.36
-9.08%
10/1/2008
968.75
-16.94%
11/3/2008
896.24
-7.48%
12/1/2008
903.25
0.78%
Page 19
S&P
1/2/2009
2/2/2009
3/2/2009
4/1/2009
5/1/2009
6/1/2009
7/1/2009
8/3/2009
9/1/2009
10/1/2009
11/2/2009
12/1/2009
1/4/2010
2/1/2010
3/1/2010
4/1/2010
5/3/2010
6/1/2010
7/1/2010
8/2/2010
9/1/2010
10/1/2010
11/1/2010
12/1/2010
1/3/2011
2/1/2011
3/1/2011
4/1/2011
5/2/2011
6/1/2011
7/1/2011
8/1/2011
9/1/2011
10/3/2011
11/1/2011
12/1/2011
1/3/2012
2/1/2012
3/1/2012
4/2/2012
5/1/2012
6/1/2012
7/2/2012
8/1/2012
9/4/2012
10/1/2012
11/1/2012
12/3/2012
1/2/2013
2/1/2013
3/1/2013
4/1/2013
5/1/2013
6/3/2013
825.88
735.09
797.87
872.81
919.14
919.32
987.48
1020.62
1057.08
1036.19
1095.63
1115.1
1073.87
1104.49
1169.43
1186.69
1089.41
1030.71
1101.6
1049.33
1141.2
1183.26
1180.55
1257.64
1286.12
1327.22
1325.83
1363.61
1345.2
1320.64
1292.28
1218.89
1131.42
1253.3
1246.96
1257.6
1312.41
1365.68
1408.47
1397.91
1310.33
1362.16
1379.32
1406.58
1440.67
1412.16
1416.18
1426.19
1498.11
1514.68
1569.19
1597.57
1630.74
1606.28
-8.57%
-10.99%
8.54%
9.39%
5.31%
0.02%
7.41%
3.36%
3.57%
-1.98%
5.74%
1.78%
-3.70%
2.85%
5.88%
1.48%
-8.20%
-5.39%
6.88%
-4.74%
8.76%
3.69%
-0.23%
6.53%
2.26%
3.20%
-0.10%
2.85%
-1.35%
-1.83%
-2.15%
-5.68%
-7.18%
10.77%
-0.51%
0.85%
4.36%
4.06%
3.13%
-0.75%
-6.27%
3.96%
1.26%
1.98%
2.42%
-1.98%
0.28%
0.71%
5.04%
1.11%
3.60%
1.81%
2.08%
-1.50%
Page 20
S&P
7/1/2013
8/1/2013
9/3/2013
10/1/2013
11/1/2013
12/2/2013
1685.73
1632.97
1681.55
1756.54
1805.81
1848.36
Average
4.95%
-3.13%
2.97%
4.46%
2.80%
2.36%
0.56%
Page 21
regression
RF
S&P-rf
0.59%
1.07%
3.50%
2.89%
-2.87%
1.53%
-2.29%
-2.36%
2.66%
-0.34%
3.24%
-1.46%
0.33%
-2.15%
3.14%
-0.46%
2.17%
-0.33%
0.71%
0.79%
-3.52%
-0.42%
0.09%
1.73%
2.07%
2.77%
1.27%
0.87%
1.00%
-2.56%
0.61%
3.94%
2.85%
-2.20%
-3.60%
0.91%
3.20%
1.11%
-4.74%
-1.20%
-6.42%
-3.77%
-0.88%
4.44%
0.73%
-8.93%
-1.32%
0.90%
Page 22
Google-rf
26.24%
46.78%
-4.91%
5.59%
1.13%
-4.26%
-4.35%
21.52%
25.69%
5.76%
-2.53%
-0.95%
10.29%
17.22%
8.43%
2.09%
3.91%
-16.57%
7.15%
6.74%
-11.46%
12.34%
-8.22%
-2.48%
5.79%
18.15%
1.40%
-5.41%
8.51%
-10.76%
1.55%
2.50%
5.22%
4.56%
-2.82%
0.65%
9.72%
24.26%
-2.31%
-0.55%
-18.70%
-16.79%
-6.80%
30.06%
1.67%
-10.47%
-10.34%
-2.52%
Residuals
Date
S&P
8/2/2004
9/1/2004
10/1/2004
11/1/2004
12/1/2004
1/3/2005
2/1/2005
3/1/2005
4/1/2005
5/2/2005
6/1/2005
7/1/2005
8/1/2005
9/1/2005
10/3/2005
11/1/2005
12/1/2005
1/3/2006
2/1/2006
3/1/2006
4/3/2006
5/1/2006
6/1/2006
7/3/2006
8/1/2006
9/1/2006
10/2/2006
11/1/2006
12/1/2006
1/3/2007
2/1/2007
3/1/2007
4/2/2007
5/1/2007
6/1/2007
7/2/2007
8/1/2007
9/4/2007
10/1/2007
11/1/2007
12/3/2007
1/2/2008
2/1/2008
3/3/2008
4/1/2008
5/1/2008
6/2/2008
7/1/2008
8/1/2008
-20.00%
-15.00%
regression
9/2/2008
10/1/2008
11/3/2008
12/1/2008
1/2/2009
2/2/2009
3/2/2009
4/1/2009
5/1/2009
6/1/2009
7/1/2009
8/3/2009
9/1/2009
10/1/2009
11/2/2009
12/1/2009
1/4/2010
2/1/2010
3/1/2010
4/1/2010
5/3/2010
6/1/2010
7/1/2010
8/2/2010
9/1/2010
10/1/2010
11/1/2010
12/1/2010
1/3/2011
2/1/2011
3/1/2011
4/1/2011
5/2/2011
6/1/2011
7/1/2011
8/1/2011
9/1/2011
10/3/2011
11/1/2011
12/1/2011
1/3/2012
2/1/2012
3/1/2012
4/2/2012
5/1/2012
6/1/2012
7/2/2012
8/1/2012
9/4/2012
10/1/2012
-9.40%
-17.27%
-7.73%
0.60%
-8.80%
-11.25%
8.32%
9.13%
5.02%
-0.27%
7.12%
3.07%
3.30%
-2.26%
5.47%
1.46%
-4.00%
2.55%
5.56%
1.17%
-8.47%
-5.63%
6.64%
-4.95%
8.55%
3.47%
-0.46%
6.25%
1.98%
2.91%
-0.39%
2.57%
-1.60%
-2.09%
-2.38%
-5.86%
-7.34%
10.59%
-0.68%
0.70%
4.21%
3.89%
2.95%
-0.91%
-6.40%
3.82%
1.14%
1.85%
2.29%
-2.12%
Page 23
-13.87%
-10.61%
-18.72%
4.83%
9.80%
-0.41%
2.76%
13.51%
5.08%
0.76%
4.80%
3.92%
7.12%
7.84%
8.48%
6.02%
-14.82%
-0.90%
7.33%
-7.61%
-7.90%
-8.62%
8.72%
-7.39%
16.63%
16.50%
-9.68%
6.61%
0.79%
1.89%
-4.63%
-7.55%
-3.03%
-4.54%
18.99%
-10.58%
-4.95%
14.89%
0.96%
7.60%
-10.33%
6.41%
3.53%
-5.83%
-4.10%
-0.27%
8.99%
8.11%
9.99%
-9.98%
regression
11/1/2012
12/3/2012
1/2/2013
2/1/2013
3/1/2013
4/1/2013
5/1/2013
6/3/2013
7/1/2013
8/1/2013
9/3/2013
10/1/2013
11/1/2013
12/2/2013
12/2/2013
0.15%
0.56%
4.88%
0.95%
3.44%
1.67%
1.90%
-1.71%
4.73%
-3.36%
2.76%
4.25%
2.58%
2.10%
0.00%
Page 24
2.52%
1.14%
6.66%
5.87%
-1.03%
3.69%
5.48%
0.84%
0.62%
-4.83%
3.21%
17.45%
2.59%
5.52%
0.00%
Residuals
regression
0.5
-20.00%
-15.00%
-10.00%
0
-5.00%
0.00%
X Variable 1
-0.5
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
-20.00% -15.00%
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.4617210549
R Square
0.2131863325
Adjusted R Square
0.2060979211
Standard Error
0.0935778989
Observations
113
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total
1
111
112
Coefficients
0.0206915757
1.1198667878
Intercept
X Variable 1
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Page 25
Predicted Y
0.0273330275
0.0326247801
0.0598439167
0.0531021572
-0.011484565
0.0377919979
-0.004917143
-0.0057469
0.0504916321
0.0168549002
0.0569676486
0.0043728478
0.0244326102
-0.003431185
regression
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
Page 26
0.0558958436
0.0155281728
0.0449835454
0.0169528221
0.0285913115
0.0295728589
-0.018700001
0.0159918024
0.0217302297
0.0401017742
0.0438817113
0.0516742156
0.0349698133
0.0304240597
0.031928414
-0.008019358
0.0275283118
0.0648505546
0.0525789186
-0.003954426
-0.01957537
0.0308602562
0.0565019307
0.0331191126
-0.032336084
0.0072679316
-0.051200298
-0.02153057
0.010816684
0.070428613
0.028865655
-0.079289065
0.0059361643
0.0307877384
-0.084556999
-0.172746226
-0.065891708
0.0273602693
-0.077883595
-0.105253748
0.1138322122
0.1229634947
0.0769067532
0.0176259425
0.1004541888
0.0551015434
0.0576080409
-0.00460284
0.0819452993
0.0370087042
regression
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
Page 27
-0.024083605
0.0492635137
0.0829614335
0.0338044623
-0.074190164
-0.042402514
0.0949979094
-0.034759559
0.1163854291
0.0595296098
0.0155137416
0.0907299917
0.0428973286
0.0532964031
0.0162991201
0.0495229467
0.0027260071
-0.002703384
-0.005979287
-0.044978642
-0.061464106
0.1393019361
0.0130947968
0.0285019951
0.0678189468
0.0642985724
0.05370791
0.0105129229
-0.050943322
0.0634386693
0.033408752
0.0413680812
0.0463022838
-0.003047066
0.0223770158
0.0269646706
0.0753071769
0.0313141875
0.0592666557
0.0393867409
0.0419273671
0.0015799379
0.0736655055
-0.016924391
0.0515619821
0.0682625014
0.0495462062
0.0442511465
0.0206915757
regression
0.5
0
-20.00% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00%
0.00%
X Variable
1
-0.5
Y
5.00%
SS
MS
F
0.263364371 0.263364371 30.075332809
0.97200737 0.008756823
1.235371741
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
0.008820293
2.34590573 0.0207561027
0.204202542 5.484098176 0.000000264
10.00%
15.00%
Significance F
0.000000264
Lower 95%
Upper 95% Lower 95.0%
0.0032135765 0.038169575 0.003213576
0.715225819 1.524507757 0.715225819
Residuals
0.235041602
0.435185558
-0.10896038
0.002779507
0.02275945
-0.08044075
-0.03858203
0.220951936
0.206451871
0.04075389
-0.08227883
-0.01383311
0.078498109
0.175589263
Page 28
regression
0.02840312
0.005386671
-0.00584774
-0.18264705
0.042908374
0.037820994
-0.09589393
0.107451893
-0.10393688
-0.06492307
0.014017675
0.129818445
-0.02098736
-0.08454481
0.053125425
-0.09955717
-0.01202123
-0.03983967
-0.00040842
0.049562117
-0.0086724
-0.02437955
0.040658601
0.209457663
0.009245357
-0.01281741
-0.13577363
-0.14640773
-0.07884908
0.230211981
-0.01220099
-0.02539532
-0.10930217
-0.05602001
-0.05413579
0.066674249
-0.12132977
0.020899232
0.175854635
0.101126836
-0.08627127
0.01209437
-0.02610152
-0.01007177
-0.05247279
-0.01590556
0.013637174
0.083012477
0.002817692
0.023227329
Page 29
regression
-0.12413904
-0.05822038
-0.00961513
-0.10988857
-0.00476371
-0.04382114
-0.0077507
-0.03913304
0.049868327
0.105494053
-0.11235808
-0.02463563
-0.03494973
-0.03440617
-0.06262547
-0.1249736
-0.03299241
-0.04272181
0.195833012
-0.06079325
0.011960136
0.009560845
-0.00345846
0.047542258
-0.17115333
-0.00023478
-0.01836048
-0.06884417
0.00995434
-0.0661635
0.056521696
0.039686717
0.05364634
-0.0967115
0.00283129
-0.0155283
-0.00866814
0.027340309
-0.06956144
-0.00251329
0.012851261
0.006856778
-0.06744947
-0.03139266
-0.01948953
0.106221576
-0.02367964
0.01090492
-0.02069158
Page 30
regression
Upper 95.0%
0.038169575
1.524507757
Page 31
regression
Page 32
regression
Page 33
Sheet13
1.25% Notes
due on
May 19, 2014
Capital Lease
Obligation
Total
1,000
Long-Term
Debt
1.25% Notes
due on
May 19, 2014
2.125% Notes
due on
May 19, 2016
1,000
1,000
3.625% Notes
due on
May 19, 2021
1,000
1,000
Unamortized
discount for
the Notes
above
Subtotal
(12 )
(10
2,988
1,990
Page 34
Sheet13
1,000
33%
33%
1.25%
2.13%
0.412500%
0.701250%
34%
3.63%
1.232500%
2.346250%
1,009
1,000
1,000
(10 )
1,990
Page 35