Chapter 7: Armed Conflict, Part 1 Causes and Outbreak

War

Definition: armed conflict; especially b/w nations, involving at least 1 000 battlefield
casualties
Over 200 wars in the last 100 years 2 per year
Twin pillars of hard power: $ and force

Interstate classical international symmetrical vs. Intra-state civil asymmetrical

Hot vs. Cold war
Hot: Actual live, shooting wars
Cold: re The Cold War
Insurgent war
Intra-state: within one country i.e. Syria
Symmetrical: war b/w equals, war b/w govts
Asymmetrical: war b/w non-equals, war b/w state and various non-state actors
o State:
o War on Terror
o Terrorist groups
o Militias
o Civil wars
100 years, 3 Huge Wars + 4th?
Kondatieff Long wave analysis
Deep currents
Huge war: between the Great Powers
o WWI (1914-18)
o WWI (1939-45)
o Cold War (1945-1991)
o War on Terror? 2001-? (USA)
WWI
War of imperial rivalry
Breaks out b/c Germany fights France for hegemony in Europe
Everyone expects it to be a short war
o However, theyre evenly matched
o Stalemate and keep grinding it out
Bleak, mega-violent, cynical war
o 20 million dead from war
o Spanish flu arises ruins infrastructure
Soldiers spread flu around
Kills 20 million more
New weapons invented:
o Tanks
o Mustard gas
o Airplanes as weapons
1

Russians go broke due to warRussian Revolution in 1917

o Communism starts in Russia, communists takes Russia out of war
USA finally comes inAlliesvictory
Although only fought in Europe, Europe had imperial power
o Still had worldwide implications

Treaty of Versailles (1919)

Germany punished severelyreparations $$$$
o If reparations had to be continued to be paid, would lead up to 1985
Germans try to repay money in Treaty of Versailles
o Go broke
o Hitler comes along
Hitler says: forget Treaty of Versailles
o Build up military
Question of the Ottoman Empire
o First time West gets involved in MENA (Middle East North Africa)
USA
o Major powerrise of American Power
All about REVENGE
WWII (1939-45)
War against authoritarian fascism
Over 60 countries involved
o All over global
o Most destructive war ever
50-72 million dead
o Officially 60 million (solely on battleground)
Weapons developed
o Atomic weapons
o 300 000 people died
o Japan willing to surrender, but not unconditionally
o Thus US dropped the atomic bombs
Allies win completely US and USSR especially
Kick-off to decolonization
o All of Europe is bankrupt
o Although UK and France won, they couldnt sustain their colonies
All about reconstruction
o Rebuilt both Germany and Japan
o Creating huge economic success stories
o Very different approach from WWI

Cold War (1945-91)

Democratic capitalism (USA) vs. authoritarian communism (USSR)
Conflict between two social systems
Cold never directly shoot/invade each other
o Come close at Cuban missile crisis
Dont end up shooting b/c of nukes MAD
o Deterrence
Proxy wars
o Means: pawn/substitute
o E.g. Korean War (1950-53)
Never a peace treaty for this war
North: USSR and China support
South: Allies support
Koreans are pawns b/w the powers
Standstill
o Vietnam 54-74
North Vietnam conquers over Southern Vietnam
North supported by USSR and China, South: allies
USA lost, Vietnam is now one
o Afghanistan 79-89
Americans arm Afghan rebels with weapons to fight USSR
Payback for Vietnam and Korea
Later on, same people use them against US (terrorists)
Results
Economycommunistcollapsed
Massive Military Expenditurecrowds everything out
People hate dictatorshipdemand change
USA is now global hegemon
Capitalism + globalization
War on Terror (2001-?)
Theory of battle to the death b/w to ideologies
Have already been two proxy wars: Iraq and Iran
o Will have many more

Why do we go to War?
Theories of Causes of War
Realism & Power
o Trying to exert influence over others via force
Idealism & Culture clash
o E.g. Cold War (capitalist vs. communist)
o WWII (democrats vs. authoritarians)
o War of Terror (democrats vs. radical Islamic regimes)
Nationalism & Elite Scheming
o Give idealistic reasons
o Fight for country, etc.
o Fight to protect fellow soldiers
o Make ruthless use of ordinary
Non-Rational Group Rivalry and/or Impulse to Destroy
o Freud1920
o Create, DestroySex
o We have an impulse to create and impulse to destroy
o Non-rational impulses
o To him, we are in a cycleperiods of destruction and peace
Male Violence & Quest for Dominance
o Feminist scholars: a true deep cause of war is male violence
o Over-saturated w/ testosterone, competition for Alpha-male
Natural Resources, Money, & The Military-Industrial Complex

Realism

International Law

Idealism

Anything Goes!
Ruthless Calculus of
National Self-Interest

Somethings Go, Others

Don't
Rules governing *Armed
Conflict*

Pacifism
Nothing Goes!
Non-violent resistance
only
E.g. Ghandi (40's)
MLK (60's)

War:
Start
o Realism: start with any means necessary
o Idealism: never start
Middle
End

What to Do in War?
International Laws of Armed Conflict:
A. Jus ad Bellum:UN Charter; Starting a War (applies to political leaders)
1. Just Cause
o Self-Defence from Aggression
o Other-Defence from Aggression
o Any Other Reason: prior UNSC approval (e.g. AHI, armed humanitarian
intervention; pre-emptive strike)
Aggression:
o Use of armed force across an international border (violent violation of human
rights of people + rights of states Political Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity
o GermanyBelgium
o GermanyPoland
o USSRAfghanistan
o IraqKuwait
2. Right Intention *Norm*
o Main motive must be desire to secure just cause and not, say, economic gain
3. Public Declaration by Proper Authority
o Nationaldemocraticlegislature
o NationalNon-democraticexecutive
o International (UNSC)
4. Last Resort
o After diplomacy/economic incentives/sanctioned
5. Probability of Success *Norm*
o No pointless force/force doomed to fail
6. Proportionality
o Problem must be so big/bad that war is an appropriate solution (e.g.
aggression)
*All of 1-6 must be met*
Overview of Jus in Bello
Hague & Geneva Conventions
Point: A to restrain & channel violence
o B theres a proper way to fight
Applies to soldiers & commanding officers
IL: Hague + Geneva Conventions, + dozens particular treaties
Violation can bring on war crimes prosecution
o National (military justice systems)
o International (ICC)

Five Main Rules of Jus in Bello:

1. *Discrimination & Non-Combatant Immunity*
o Aim force only at legitimate targets
o Due care for civilians
Minimize civilian casualties, Use smart weapons
Train soldiers not to target civilians
Gain intelligence/data
If it happens: collateral damage, not a war crime
o Benevolent quarantine for POWs
Supposed to give them hygiene, food, sleeping quarters
Cant torture suspected terrorists either

Legitimate target
o Combatants
o Source of harm
o Military supply
o Weapons factories
o Top political institution
o War machine
Illegitimate targets
o Civilians
o Unarmed; not a source of harm
o Dual-Use Target
o Basic infrastructure
o Intl Law: Absolutely not, b/c civilians use them, but recently they have been
targeted
Such a formidable expression of power
o Shock-and-Awe

2. Proportionality
o (Of tactics to objectives)
o Example of a violation: Persian Gulf War
Saddam gave up in Kuwait
Was on highway and started shooting b/c of traffic jam (only one highway)
3. No Prohibited Weapons
o (WMD especially)
o Biological weapons (virus) C (gas)
o Land mines are prohibited
o Nuclear weapons allowed
4. No Means Mal in Se
o Forcing soldiers to fight own side
o Use of child soldiers
o Use of rape as tool of war
5. No Reprisals