2014 Exit Poll Results

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NATIONAL EXIT POLL
DIRECTION OF COUNTRY
Right direction
Wrong track

2014
31%
65

2012
46%
52

CONGRESS JOB APPROVAL

2014 2010
Approve
20% 23%
Disapprove
78
73

1994
16%
79

OBAMA JOB APPROVAL

2014 2012
Approve
44% 54%
Disapprove
55
45

2010
44%
55

OBAMA FACTOR IN YOUR VOTE

2014
To express support
19%
To express opposition
33
Not a factor
45

2010
34%
61

2008
20%
75

2010
23%
37
38

Among those who voted Republican:

To express support
2%
To express opposition
59
Not a factor
37
MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE
Economy
45%
Health care
25
Illegal immigration
14
Foreign policy
13
VIEWS OF US MILITARY ACTION AGAINST ISIS
Approve
58%
Disapprove
35
US GOVERNMENT RESPONSE TO EBOLA
Approve
43%
Disapprove
52

29% rate the economy as good, 70% say it is bad. The percent saying it is excellent/good has
improved since 2008, when just 7% said that.
ECONOMY IS
Getting better
Getting worse
Staying the same

33%
32
34

63% say the US economic system favors the wealthy, 32% say it is fair to most Americans.
HEALTH CARE LAW
Did not go far enough
Was about right
Went too far

25%
21
48

WORRIED ABOUT TERROR ATTACK

Worried
71%
Not worried
28
WORRIED ABOUT ECONOMY
Worried
78%
Not worried
22
LIFE FOR NEXT GENERATION
Better
22%
Worse
48
Same
27
22% is the lowest percentage ever in exit polls that say life will be better for the next generation.
FEELINGS ABOUT
Enthusiastic
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
Angry

OBAMA ADMINISTRATION
11%
29
33
27

GOP LEADERS IN CONGRESS

7%
32
37
23

HOUSE VOTE:
There is a gender gap
Women: 52% support the Democratic candidate for House, 47% the Republican
Men: 42% Dem candidate, 56% Republican candidate
Independents are backing the Republican (42% Dem, 54% Rep).
Whites are 75% of the electorate this year, compared to 72% in 2012 and 77% in 2010.
Blacks are 12% of voters this year; they were 11% in 20101 and 13% in 2012
Hispanics are 8% of voters, compared to 10% in 2012
18-29 year olds are 13% of voters this year, about the same as in 2010 (12%).
In 2012 they were 19%.
2

HOUSE VOTE AMONG DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS:

Democrat
Republican
Whites
38%
60
Blacks
89%
10
Hispanics
63%
35
18-29 year olds
65+

54%
42%

43
57

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ARKANSAS
OBAMA JOB RATING
Approve
30%
Disapprove
68
69% are dissatisfied or angry about the Obama administration. 40% are voting against Obama.
VIEWS OF HEALTH CARE LAW
Didnt go far enough
16%
Was about right
21
Went too far
55
This is a conservative electorate. 48% describe themselves as conservatives. They voted heavily for
Cotton, 84% - 15% Pryor.
Just 29% say they are Democrats. That was 39% in 2008.
Democrats voted for Pryor, but Cotton had a 30 point margin among independents. Both men and
women voted for Cotton.
Independents

Pryor
32%

Cotton
63

Men
Women

36%
43%

60
53

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COLORADO
Udall won in 2008 with support from women, moderates, independents and college graduates.
This year:
Women voters: Udall 52%, Gardner 44%. In 2008 Udall won women by 15 points.
Men: Udall 39%, Gardner 56%
Udall
Gardner

WHITES
43%
53

INDEPENDENTS
42%
50
3

Gardner won the white vote by ten points. Romney won them in 2012 by 11 points (but Obama won
white voters here by 2 points in 2008).
56% said it was very important to their vote which party controls the Senate. Those voters supported
Gardner.
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FLORIDA
Governor
Vote among whites: Crist 37%, Scott 58%. Scott won them by 15 points in 2010.
Although he didnt win them, Scott got 38% of the Hispanic vote.
Vote among 65+: Crist 40%, Scott 56%. Scott won them in 2010.
Just 35% say Scotts positions are too conservative.
REASON CRIST CHANGED PARTIES
Reflect his beliefs
29%
Help win elections
60
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GEORGIA
VIEWS OF HEALTH CARE LAW
Didnt go far enough
24%
Was about right
19
Went too far
51
47% strongly disapprove of the job Obama is doing.
Black voters were 30% of voters in 2012; this year they are 29%. 92% of them are voting for Nunn.
Nunn got 23% of the white vote; she got 26% in 2008. They are 64% of voters.
White voters: 23% Nunn, 74% Perdue
Men voted heavily for Perdue, 61% Perdue 38% Nunn.
NUNNS POSITIONS ON ISSUES
Too liberal
44%
Not liberal enough
8
About right
42
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IOWA
Women: 49% Braley, 48% Ernst Obama won women by 19 points
Men: 40% Braley, 56% Ernst
This is an older electorate this year. 24% are age 65+; Ernst won among voters 65+.
4

Braley
54%
40%
438%

Urban voters
Suburban voters
Rural voters

Ernst
41
56
58

BRALEYS POSITIONS ON ISSUES

Too liberal
44%
Not liberal enough
10
About right
37
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KANSAS
Senate
48% of the electorate are Republicans, just 25% are Democrats. Republicans voted heavily for
Roberts.
Roberts
Orman

REPUBLICANS
85%
13

CONSERVATIVES
89%
8

Roberts leads among men, the race is much closer among women.
CONCERNED ABOUT ORMANS HONESTY?
Yes
51%
No
49
Governor
52% said the Brownback tax cuts have hurt Kansas economy, 41% said they have helped.
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KENTUCKY
OBAMA JOB RATING
Approve
34%
Disapprove
66
VIEWS OF HEALTH CARE LAW
Didnt go far enough
26%
Was about right
22
Went too far
46
FEELINGS ABOUT
OBAMA ADMINISTRATION
Enthusiastic
11%
Satisfied
24
Dissatisfied
36
Angry
29

REPUBLICAN LEADERS IN CONGRESS

9%
36
31
20
5

McConnell won men by 25 points. He also won women, by 3 points.

Women voters: Grimes 47%, McConnell 50%. In 2008 McConnell won women by just 1 point.
Men: Grimes 36%, McConnell 61%
Independents: Grimes 35%, McConnell 58%
GRIMES POSITIONS ON ISSUES
Too liberal
46%
Not liberal enough
11
About right
37
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LOUISIANA
Health care was the top issue here, closely followed by the economy.
VIEWS OF HEALTH CARE LAW
Didnt go far enough
20%
Was about right
20
Went too far
56
Black turnout is similar to 2008. Blacks are 30% of voters this year; they were 29% in 2008,
Landrieus last election. Landrieu overwhelmingly wins them.
Landrieu is getting just 18% of the white vote. She got 33% in 2008.
Cassidy
Landrieu

WOMEN
36%
48

MEN BLACKS
47%
3%
35
94

WHITES
59%
18

INDEPENDENTS
44%
32

LANDRIEU AGREES WITH OBAMA

Too often
57%
Not often enough
6
Right amount
34
YOUR SENATE VOTE
Support Obama
18%
Oppose Obama
43
Not about Obama
36
CASSIDYS POSITIONS ON ISSUES
Too conservative
32%
Not conservative enough
26
About right
35

VOTE IF RUNOFF
Landrieu
Cassidy
Wouldnt vote

43%
51
4

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NEW HAMPSHIRE
Very large gender gap, similar to past elections here.
Men: Shaheen 44%, Brown 55%
Women: Shaheen 59%, Brown 40%
Independents are 45% of voters here. They voted 51% Shaheen, 49% Brown
BROWN LIVED IN NH LONG ENOUGH TO REPRESENT THE STATE?
Yes
45%
No
53%
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NORTH CAROLINA
Vote among whites: Hagan 33%, Tillis 62%; they are 74% of voters, similar to 2008 Senate race
Hagan got 39% of them in 2008.
Blacks are 21% of voters this year. They were 19% in 2008 and 23% in 2012.
Vote among blacks: Hagan 96%, Tillis 3%
College graduates voted for Hagan 50%, Tillis 47%
18-29 year olds were 17% of voters in 2008 Senate race, 16% in 2012. They are just 12% this year
Women: 54% Hagan, 42% Tillis
Men: 41% Hagan, 56% Tillis
52% said Hagan agrees with Obama on issues too often.
HAGAN AGREES WITH OBAMA
Too often
52%
Not often enough
6
Right amount
37
MOVED TO NORTH CAROLINA
Hagan
51%
Tillis
46
BORN IN NORTH CAROLINA
Hagan
41%
Tillis
53
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7

VIRGINIA
Men give Gillespie a 10 point lead (43%-53%)
Women give Warner a 12 point lead (55%-43%)
Independents are split, 47%-47%
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WISCONSIN
Governor
Walker has a 21 point margin among men. He leads among independents as well, 43%-54%.
42% said Walker would make a good president